374
FXUS62 KGSP 231757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW-TO-CRITICAL AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY, KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER
ELEVATED. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
2. PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH LOW-TO-CRITICAL AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY, KEEPING THE FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY,
BUT WILL WEAKEN, AS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND RIDE OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE FURTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SW, BUT
WITH LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE. OVERALL, FRIDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH (WIDESPREAD 25-35%
VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING). THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NE GA, WHICH ONLY NEEDS 4 HOURS
OF <30% RH. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT ONLY A FEW LOW-END
GUSTS OF 14-18 MPH EXPECTED. CURRENT FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NE GA EXPIRES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE 12Z CAMS ARE TEASING US
WITH A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS POPPING DURING PEAK HEATING TOMORROW,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND A LINGERING MID-LEVEL CAP. SO ONLY SPOTTY SLIGHT CHC POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING.
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND,
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
STARTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO TICK
UPWARD. BY SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER, QPF RESPONSE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 30-40% OF RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.5", WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
PATTERN, IT LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 0.01"TO 0.3". EITHER WAY, RAIN
TOTALS WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO PUTTING A DENT IN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. BEHIND THE WEAKENED FRONT, A BRIEF STINT OF DRIER AIR FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK. A SECOND FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, WHICH
COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN AND KICKOFF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WITH A DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE CAVEAT
IS THAT BRIEF PERIODS OF 3-6SM VISBY CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO
HZ OR SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTH GA/NORTHERN FL,
BUT TIMING OF THIS...OR EVEN IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE, SW AT 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING, THEN RESUMING OUT OF THE SW AGAIN AROUND
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU FRIDAY
AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND SOME ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ON SATURDAY. GENERALLY DRY AND VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY THRU MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP
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