918
FXUS62 KGSP 161052
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE EARLIER, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE DETAILS OF SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
TODAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY, WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER, DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER OF THOSE DAYS. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY TODAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL, BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY FOR MID-JUNE,
AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT THAT IS
DRAPED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY,
HELPING KEEP TEMPS EVEN COOLER WITH HIGHS 5-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MID-MS VALLEY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY THE
EAST, VEERS FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY AND HELPS CLEAR OUT CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY STABLE SOUNDINGS
DESPITE A REBOUND IN TEMPS BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAIN ZONE WEDNESDAY EVENING,
AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. MUGGIER DEWPTS AND EXPANDING LOW CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER,
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER OF THOSE
DAYS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING OUT OVER THE NW GULF AND THEN
GETTING PICKED UP BY A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW DRIFTS ENE OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ATOP THE FORECAST AREA, AND
RESULTS IN UNUSUALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NBM CONTINUES TO FORECAST 25-35 MPH GUSTS THURSDAY AFTN. AS FAR AS
POPS, THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
WAVE WILL BE AS IT TRACKS EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z GFS IS
VERY WEAK AND TRACKS THE WAVE MORE TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER OUTLIER (ALBEIT TRENDING WEAKER), AND
TRACKS A COMPACT LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. THE
CANADIAN HAS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A STRONG MCS BARREL THRU THE I-85
CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF SEVERE AND/OR HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT SOME POINT BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTN AND FRIDAY EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT INTERACT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT TO
PUSH THRU THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING, USHERING IN DRIER AIR. IT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN,
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: GENERALLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH SOME AREAS OF MID CLOUDS
UNDERNEATH. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN MVFR
CLOUDS MAY EXPAND FROM THE SW. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE EXTENT
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS, BUT STILL SHOWS AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AFFECTING
THE UPSTATE SITES OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST SCT MVFR
CLOUDS AROUND KCLT LATE TONIGHT THRU ABOUT 14Z WED. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME SHOWERS SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WARRANTING A PROB30 AT KAND, AS WELL. WINDS OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT
OUT OF THE NE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SW
AROUND MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN 6-12 KT. LOW-END GUSTS AT KAVL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. WINDS STAY SW TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: ANY IFR OR MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP MAY OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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