109
FXUS62 KGSP 130637
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS UNTIL 8
PM TODAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WELL-BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
2. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WELL-BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT...NORTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
STEADILY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THIS TREND
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. IN THE INTERIM,
CURRENT CONVECTION IS PROVING TO BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN TERMS OF
PRECIP PRODUCTION...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2"
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 12 KFT. LOCALIZED HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3" HAVE OCCURRED, ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS, AND THERE
IS A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...OWING TO A DEVELOP, ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK SE UPSLOPE FLOW.
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO WANE, BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD BLOSSOM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS THE AIR
MASS MODESTLY DESTABILIZES IN CONTINUED VERY MOIST CONDITIONS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL AGAIN RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AREAS OF NC, WHERE POOR ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND WHERE THE ESE UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT. BY MONDAY EVENING, 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2-4" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (LESSER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE TN BORDER), WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5" OR MORE VERY MUCH
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. FOR THIS REASON, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AWAY
FROM THIS AREA, FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE OF SOME CONCERN,
BUT THE THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE...DEPENDENT LARGELY
UPON WHICH BASINS ARE PRIMED DUE TO RECENT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS A LESSER CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THERE, DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER, BUT JUST ENOUGH
BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF STRAY SEVERE STORMS. NE
LOW LEVEL FLOW, CLOUD COVER, AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS STACKED/WEAK CYCLONE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF LOWER
THETE-E/MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS, ESE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT, AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 8 PM TODAY, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THIS MAY NEED EXTENSION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE BENEFITS OF THE ADVECTION OF LOWER
THETA-E AIR FROM THE NE AND EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY,
AS GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LITTLE-TO-NO DESTABILIZATION,
EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE TN BORDER. THESE AREAS ARE
WHERE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE ADVERTISED TUES, BUT THE
BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD BE LARGELY FREE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODIFYING AIR MASS/RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY...
WITH NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX CONCERNS COULD CROP UP AGAIN DURING
THIS TIME, WITH 100+ VALUES FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
CHARLOTTE METRO MOST AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE SEASONABLY HOT
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT NON-
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND POPS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ARE GENERALLY LIMITED TO NEAR, OR EVEN BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH AT MOST WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS PORTION OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. TEMPOS FOR TSRA ARE WARRANTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING, A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPOS TRANSITIONING TO VCSH BY DAYBREAK. MVFR
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND THESE SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 08-12Z, AND AT
LEAST TEMPO IFR CLOUDS ARE THEREFORE ADVERTISED DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STUBBORN TO LIFT AND/OR SCATTER
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA ADVERTISED AT ALL SITES FROM 18-24Z. ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE MONDAY EVENING, WITH IFR
LIKELY RETURNING BY 06Z TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS TREND IS GENERALLY
NOT REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAF FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-
501>506.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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