964
FXUS62 KGSP 032311
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THIS EVENING'S HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE THE HEAT GRADUALLY WANES NEXT
WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD
PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FOR ALL AREAS NEXT WEEK. PER
USUAL, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE THE HEAT GRADUALLY
WANES NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN
OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE BRINGING ABOUT THE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS WILL MIGRATE FROM THE CAROLINA/VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON, TO CAPE HATTERAS BY THE END OF SATURDAY...WEAKENING
AS IT DOES SO, AS THE WESTERLIES BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH
AREAS OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE HEAT WILL
REMAIN OPPRESSIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE STEADILY WANING EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
MID-WEEK. WHILE SATURDAY'S AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST AS...IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, VERTICAL PROFILES
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DRIER AND PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO LOWER TO THE MID...IF NOT
LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT, MAX FORECAST
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 101-106 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. IN LIGHT OF THE PLETHORA OF FESTIVALS AND
OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...AND TOMORROW BEING THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY OF VERY HOT WEATHER, AN "IMPACT-BASED" HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ALL NON-MOUNTAIN FORECAST ZONES.
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BEGIN MOISTENING UP. AS SUCH SUNDAY HEAT
INDICES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY...IF AT ALL...DIFFERENT THAN
SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECLINE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING AS AN INTENSIFYING BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES MAY ABATE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT UPPER
90S ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FOR ALL AREAS NEXT WEEK. PER USUAL,
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAKE SURE
YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN
ANTICYCLONE HAS SHUNTED SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. CONVECTION
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NE GA IS WANING AND SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES COMPLETELY.
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVING INTO ONE CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A
TYPICAL/BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BERMUDA HIGH
WILL ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING ELEVATED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. BY MONDAY...POPS
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASE TO VALUES MORE TYPICAL (IF NOT
A LITTLE HIGHER) FOR THE TIME OF YEAR (MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
MTNS; SOLID CHANCES ELSEWHERE.) MORE OR LESS TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. CONVECTION ON THE WANE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR CU
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL, BUT CIRRUS MAY LINGER THOUGH THE NIGHT.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT, BUT SHOULD AGAIN PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS W THROUGH N OF
KAVL. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM THROUGH THE EVENING. DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN, BUT CHANCE TOO LOW FOR
A MENTION AT KAVL FOR NOW. LIGHT S TO SW WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY WITH FEW TO SCT VFR CU.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
RECORDS FOR 07-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 96 1948 71 1976 70 2024 46 1967
2018 1933
KCLT 101 2024 66 1892 78 2024 57 1967
KGSP 101 2024 70 1976 78 2016 58 1967
1933
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ008>014-
019-104>109.
JDL/RWH
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