544
FXUS62 KGSP 231016
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
2. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER PATTERN
EMERGING BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN PARKS A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH THE CWA SANDWICHED IN THE MIDDLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CANADA AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, CLASSIC
REX BLOCK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE CWA IS A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING
MOISTURE MEANS A COUPLE DAYS WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS. SOME GUIDANCE
STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER
THE WEDGE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE TO
CAD IS LESS INFLUENTIAL. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE NON-CONVECTIVE RAINFALL,
REDUCING RAIN RATES AND THE FLOODING RISK. BUT THE RISK IS NONZERO.
STILL COULD HAVE SOMETHING POP UP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.
AS WITH ANY CAD EVENT, AIR BEING PUSHED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN COULD
CREATE LOCALLY ROOTED SHOWERS THAT PERSIST A WHILE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE A VERY LOW FLOOD RISK, BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW DUE TO THE NON-CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER
PATTERN EMERGING BY THE WEEKEND.
DAILY HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE A CHEF'S KISS FOR AUTUMN LOVERS. DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND LOW 70S IN PARTS OF THE
UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH THE CAD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ONCE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WARMER TEMPS TREND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THESE LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND NOT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FROM THE SUMMER. ALSO, WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS, DRIER AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, MEANING HUMIDITY SHOULD BE LOWER. AS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS, THESE ARE TRENDING COOLER, INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND NC PIEDMONT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COOLER TEMPS STICK
AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR, IFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT BKN/OVC WITH 006-009 CIGS. STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR/MVFR VSBY FOR LOW STRATUS. -DZ AND -SHRA
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS WELL. GUSTS OF 15-25KTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS MAY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS COULD STILL
DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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