111
FXUS62 KGSP 100617
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW ON THE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY
RAIN, AND WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO COLDER SPOTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WARMER AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON.
2. RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
3. SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS.
4. WIDESPREAD, MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
AREA STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ONLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT A WINTRY MIX CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT LEAST IN PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MUCH
WARMER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTENDED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND W/SW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WIND GUST WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH
GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE MUCH WARMER, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL RUN ~15-19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ALL
THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
TODAY'S RECORD HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS KEEPING GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
AROUND. RAIN RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SEEING RAIN RETURN BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN STICKS AROUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT LEADING TO VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE NC/TN BORDER. LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER, AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET, WILL SEE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM ROUGHLY 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.0" POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.05" TO 0.10".
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-WIDE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY, RH VALUES WILL DROP NEAR
OR BELOW 25% EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL.
WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY
WINDS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARE TO TUESDAY, BUT STILL ~7-
13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS. AT THEIR INTERFACE, AN
ALMOST STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SW OZARKS TO THE
FL PANHANDLE. WAA IS SEEN NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY WHICH TRANSLATES
OVER OUR CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS LEADS SOME GUIDANCE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT QPF RESPONSE AT THAT TIME OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SATURATED MIDLEVELS BUT DRY LAYER
BELOW SUGGESTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH, BUT
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE NO PRECIP. 20% POP IS WARRANTED
OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE AREA WITH SNOW ONLY MENTIONED IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. COLD RAIN WOULD RESULT ELSEWHERE. THESE
CHANCES TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WIDESPREAD, MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST
OF THE AREA STILL LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ONLY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT A WINTRY MIX CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT LEAST IN PARTS OF
THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
SHARP PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE SW CONUS AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, SUBSEQUENTLY INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY, WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND
WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. POPS THUS RAMP
UP STEADILY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY; THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD
IN TERMS OF HOW QUICKLY PRECIP DEVELOPS NEAR THE WARM FRONT, SO
CHANCES REMAIN NO BETTER THAN 20-30% SATURDAY BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL EARLY SUNDAY. THE STICKING POINTS REMAIN THE
TRACK OF THAT DEVELOPING LOW, BUT ALSO ON A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL ROTATE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY. AS WE'VE
PREVIOUSLY MESSAGED, THE SOUTHERN LOW TRACK WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
DETERMINING OUR WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ALSO MAY PROVE CRITICAL FOR
THE STRENGTH AND FLAVOR OF CAD THAT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT,
THUS ALSO HAVING SOME IMPACT ON P-TYPES, IN TERMS OF HOW COLD THE
SFC STAYS AS PRECIP RAMPS UP LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN.
THE 09/12Z AND 10/00Z OPERATIONAL CANADIAN RUNS FEATURE A STRONGER
SFC HIGH AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN WINTRY MIX OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY MORNING NOT SHOWN ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR ECMWF FROM
EITHER OF THOSE CYCLES. THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS OF ALL THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SHOWING A SIMILAR HIGH, AND FOR THAT REASON IT IS
JUSTIFIABLE NOT TO TOTALLY WRITE OFF THE IDEA OF WINTRY PRECIP
NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT--THE AREA WHERE CAD
IS MOST PREVALENT/STUBBORN--IF NOT OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER, THE 09/12Z LREF (ALL THE ENSEMBLES PUT TOGETHER)
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AT WET-BULB TEMPS BELOW 34 IS 25%
OR LESS SUNDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINS, WITH VALUES
CLOSER TO 50% IN AVERY COUNTY. TAKING THAT AS A PROXY FOR SNOW
THAT WOULD ALSO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF COLDER TEMPS AND FREEZING
RAIN, IT MEANS THE EVENT STILL BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL
WINTER IMPACTS. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION DOES REMAIN TEMPS ARE
ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL POPULATED AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND THUS
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR ALL RAIN THRU THE EVENT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK OVER THE
LAST 2-3 CYCLES; THE GFS IS NOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ITS TOTAL
QPF HAS DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. NOT SEEING THE
SAME TREND IN THE OPNL ECMWF, GEFS OR EC ENSEMBLE, SO NOT BUYING
IT BEING THAT DRY THRU THE EVENT.
PWATS FROM THE ENSEMBLES ALL RISE TO NEAR +2 SD ABOVE CLIMO
SUNDAY SO TOTAL QPF OF 1-2" (CLOSER TO 3" ALONG THE ESCARPMENT)
IS FORECAST. A MORE NORTHERLY LOW TRACK AND WEAKER CAD COULD OPEN
US UP TO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, WHICH WOULD OCCUR WITH ENOUGH
0-3KM SHEAR AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR A HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY TREND AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST WEAK WEDGING SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
AND FURTHERMORE DEEP SATURATION MEANS WEAK LAPSE RATES. SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO RAIN RATES COULD OCCUR BUT FOLLOWING A DRY WEEK
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY FAVOR A S'LY DIRECTION AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNRISE. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TOGGLE MORE SW
AFTER DAYBREAK, REMAINING AT THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KAVL WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP OUT OF THE WNW/NW
AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE TOGGLING MORE W/WSW THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW-END, INTERMITTENT GUSTS WILL DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KHKY. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 16-21 KTS AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING BKN TO OVC.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JCW
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