089
FXUS62 KGSP 011813
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HEAT INDEX HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS, BUT 100-105 H.I. IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. RELIEF MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR
ALL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. RELIEF MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS...WITH
MAX TEMPS FORECAST AT 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT RATHER DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING
WITH SOMEWHAT DRY PROFILES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DECREASING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WIDESPREAD
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...OR
AT LEAST LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS, PLENTY OF H.I. OF 100-105 IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS, AND PERHAPS EVEN THE LOWEST
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, EVEN IF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AREN'T FORECAST TO BE MET, THOUGHT MAY NEED TO BE GIVEN TO
IMPACT-BASED HEAT PRODUCTS, OWING TO THE ATTRITIONAL EFFECTS OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOMING.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
ANTICYCLONE/ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BEGIN A QUICK RETROGRADE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS, AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES/CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST BY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RADAR IMAGERY REVEALING A FEW
PIN-PRICK SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH RIDGE TOPS OF WESTERN
NC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT 20-30 POPS ARE WARRANTED ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE TOPS BOTH DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ARE UNCAPPED EACH AFTERNOON, WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
HOT AND UNSTABLE. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
IS THEREFORE FORECAST THU/FRI. BY CONTRAST, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE AT LEAST WEAKLY CAPPED AND/OR FEATURE
HIGH LFCS, SO POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REMAIN < 20% EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE
FORECAST TO QUICKLY RETROGRADE TO THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND A TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE REGION, WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY,
WITH SOLID CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SPOTTY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN AT KAVL, THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF MENTION. FOG/LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING, WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS FOR THE WEEKEND. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 09-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 91 2020 65 1928 70 2020 45 1967
2011
KCLT 99 1932 67 1928 74 1993 53 1967
1947
1941
KGSP 100 1912 65 1928 73 2020 50 1887
1947
1932
RECORDS FOR 09-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 2020 66 1994 70 1993 44 1967
1920
KCLT 98 1925 69 1994 75 1993 52 1967
1990
1941
KGSP 97 1962 65 1994 74 2015 52 1967
1944
1925
RECORDS FOR 09-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 95 1954 67 1913 70 1925 45 1952
KCLT 100 1925 70 1974 75 1925 54 1952
1886
KGSP 100 1954 67 1920 76 1925 52 1892
1925 1905
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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