069
FXUS62 KGSP 080003
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
803 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP
SOUTH, WORKING TO SPLIT AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING AS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE BROADER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THRU WEDNESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL HELP BRING
BACK MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING
MONDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL IN THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
I-77 CORRIDOR. SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW, AS INSTABILITY WILL
BE MODEST, SHEAR WEAK, AND DCAPE ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE. A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY, AS CONVECTION WILL HAVE
EFFICIENT RAIN RATES. PWATS WILL BE UP AROUND 2" AND STORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOW TO ERODE THRU THE DAY
TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A
FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE
STALLED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT. PWATS REMAIN HIGH, BUT THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH MUGGIER
CONDITIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A BROAD AREA OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR
WEST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, EVEN IN THE USUAL FOG-PRONE MTN VALLEYS.
MORE OF THE LATEST NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE HAS MVFR CLOUDS REACHING
OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, I HAVE KAND
GOING BKN024 AROUND 17Z WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 035 TOMORROW EVENING.
THE LOWER CIGS COULD REACH KGSP, KGMU, AND KAVL, BUT MY CONFIDENCE
WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THEIR TAFS. OTHERWISE, CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS. I HAVE
PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NC MTNS TOMORROW,
BUT POPS WEREN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
KAVL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SWLY THIS EVENING, GOING LIGHT
AND VRB TO CALM LATER TONIGHT. A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA FROM THE NE AROUND DAYBREAK TOGGLING WINDS OUT OF THE E/NE AT
KHKY, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH KCLT. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE
A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AROUND KCLT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL FAVOR A SE TO SW TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS AT MOST SITES.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT
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