517
FXUS62 KGSP 140648
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL
WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AREAS.
2. A RETURN TO HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO
FAR WESTERN AREAS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH ONLY LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY NOTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE MORNING, AS A WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERS. NEVERTHELESS, RAIN RATES WILL FAR FALL SHORT
OF ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS, AND THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING HAS PASSED FOR THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY COOL NE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AS INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HAVING SAID THAT, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE CWA FROM THE ENE LATER TODAY. THUS, AFTER
WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW CLOUD COVER, PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE, AND MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GA MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNSET. AS SUCH,
THE WARMEST TEMPS (MID-80S) TODAY ARE FORECAST ALONG/EAST OF
I-77, WHILE FORECAST MAXES ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA (EXCEPTING THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN BORDER) ARE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2-1/3 OF THE CWA, AND AFTERNOON
POPS (MAINLY 30-50%) ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS. A SMALL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST, MAINLY IN LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FOUR DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WED, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, WITH CLOUDS MORE LIKELY
TO SCATTER EARLIER IN THE DAY, AND THE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY
IN THE JULY SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
WED. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE TO END THE WEEK, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100+ ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT AREAS BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS THU AND FRI, WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED THU,
AND MORE LIKE SOLID SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR FRI.
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN DEPICTING FALLING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO ENHANCE (MAINLY) DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHOWERS LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA,
SUCH THAT KHKY AND KAND ARE THE ONLY SITES THAT MAY SEE A SHRA THIS
MORNING, BUT EVEN THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BE LARGELY
GONE BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KHKY FROM 06-08Z,
VCSH SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE, MOST TAF SITES ARE REPORTING MVFR
CIGS, WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR BEGINNING TO APPEAR. EXPECT ALL SITES
TO EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR NO LATER THAN 10Z. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
MVFR VISBY DEVELOPING, PARTICULARLY AT KAVL AND KHKY, BUT NE WINDS
OF 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISBY VFR AT MOST SITES. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME TS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NE HALF (I.E., KHKY AND KCLT)
SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PROB30S FOR TSRA
ARE ADVERTISED AT KAND AND KGMU, WITH PROB30S FOR -SHRA AT KGSP
AND KAVL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY SCATTER AND ANY CONVECTION
DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL MID-JULY COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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