696
FXUS62 KGSP 071034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
2. RAIN IS EXPECTED RETURN TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, AMOUNT, AND DURATION REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FAIR AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, COURTESY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ONE HIGH CENTER
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BUT A CHUNK BREAKS OFF AND
LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THAT CLIMB A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, BUT THEN WARM
TO MORE LIKE TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE AIR
MASS REMAINS DRY. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVERHEAD
ON FRIDAY WHILE THE SFC HIGH GETS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN WARM. THE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT,
ALL BETS ARE OFF AND OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE GULF.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN IS EXPECTED RETURN TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, AMOUNT, AND DURATION REMAINS LOW.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO EVENTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS WE GET INTO
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK, WHAT WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS WOULD PLAY
OUT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF ON A TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE MTNS TYPICALLY MEANS A
LOT OF RAIN FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, IF THE SYSTEM MOVES TOO FAR
TO THE WEST IT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP PROBS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE
ONSET. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS AN AREA WHERE GREATER THAN THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT, MAINLY CENTERED ON SUNDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF FIVE INCHES
OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. SHEAR WOULD BE GOOD, BUT BUOYANCY
WOULD BE POOR. DRY AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY OR SO, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP ENDING IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. BOTTOM LINE, WE
HAVE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON NOW, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST TRENDS WHILE WE AWAIT ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KAVL
AND KHKY THROUGH 13 OR 14Z, WITH SOME DEGREE OF RESTRICTION LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH 15Z, ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. A BRIEF RESTRICTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TAF SITES, BUT THIS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY, AND VFR IS FORECAST AT THOSE SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND LAKES
AND MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT OF SAID FOG IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AND THERE IS REASON
TO BELIEVE THAT IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED AS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AROUND
RIVERS/LAKES EACH NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS INCREASES SATURDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/PM
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