209
FXUS62 KGSP 282303
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY,
BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
DRY, MILD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW, AS A WEAKENING COASTAL LOW FINALLY STARTS TO ACCELERATE NE
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO WORK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THRU FRIDAY. DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL STILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT TREND
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST, WHILE A CLOSED LOW
OPENS UP AND MERGES WITH A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE FASTER SIDE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, ON BRINGING RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SOLID CHC POPS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO
KEEP FRIDAY DRY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS DOES HAVE SOME ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT, AND THE NBM CONTINUES TO RAMP UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON THAT, GIVEN THE
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.
FROM THERE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. ONE TREND IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FOR A WEAKER PARENT HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND LESS OF A CAD SETUP. SO, NOT IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT
THE LATEST NBM MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NBM KEEPS FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES
AROUND, POSSIBLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL FORM AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KAVL. VFR STRATOCU WILL REMAIN NEAR KHKY AND MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE,
BUT CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIGHT N TO NE WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME S TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTN IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/RWH
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