704
FXUS62 KGSP 261206
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE RECENT 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ACROSS
OUR AREA. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TO OUR WEST. THE RESULTING BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS PROFILES REFLECT A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER CP AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE NE,
REINFORCING THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND BRINGING MARGINALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER REINFORCING/BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY RE-ESTABLISH SOME AMOUNT OF COLD-AIR
DAMMING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE, MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LVL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VERY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS THIS MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE AROUND KAVL, SO RETAINED TEMPO
THERE. KHKY APPEARS A BIT MORE REMOVED FROM THE FOG SO NO LONGER
INCLUDING IT THERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 4-7
KT RANGE TODAY, STILL MAINLY N TO NE. PERIODS OF CALM ARE EXPECTED
AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS SEEN. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
SO ONLY WENT 6SM AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING. MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/JPT
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