873
FXUS62 KGSP 201140
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
740 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE NBM HAS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS 06Z CAMS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL AND SHOW MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JUNE, WITH VALUES WARMING TO
NEAR-NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SPC DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THEY
COULD CERTAINLY BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 12 TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
LINGER OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO W/SW THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY, BUT CHANCES LOOK MUCH BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT
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