135
FXUS62 KGSP 060659
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LESS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH AN UPTICK IN THE WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF GA/SC.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY AND PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
THOUGH ANY FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY AND PRODUCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH
ANY FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED.
SURFACE COLD FRONT, ORIENTED FROM OHIO TO ARKANSAS AS OF 2 AM, WILL
ONLY VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THRU
THE DAY TODAY. BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN MUCAPE ACROSS TN, N
GA, AND THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS PRESENT AND STORMS MAY GROW INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE
OF CONVECTION, BUT SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT SUCH A LINE
MAY NOT MOVE QUICKLY OFF OF THE FRONT, AND THERE IS A LACK OF A
CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM OTHERWISE. CAMS APPEAR NOT TO BE HANDLING
THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON
WEAKENING AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO APPROACH THE NC/TN
BORDER BY 12Z. ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND
PROFILES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE LOUD DEBRIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND ANY RAINFALL LIGHT.
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTH MS/AL/GA AND SE TN DURING THE DAY IN A SIMILARLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. POSSIBLY DUE TO LESSER PRECIP OR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
IN OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING, SBCAPE HAS TRENDED HIGHER OVER
OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, AND UNINHIBITED SBCAPE PERSISTS
INTO THE EVENING, AS SFC DEWPOINTS TREND UPWARD AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IMPROVE. CAMS GENERALLY SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO OUR WEST, WHICH
THEN TRACK INTO OUR CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY
CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME STREAKS OF UPDRAFT HELICITY DEVELOPING,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF TN/GA/NC, POSSIBLY DUE TO
THOSE STORMS FIRING ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OR THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEING EXPOSED
TO BETTER LOW LEVEL HELICITY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM ON
THE ORDER OF 50 KT) ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT TO MAINTAIN SUCH ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA. HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY STRAIGHT OR CHAOTIC, AND LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WIND FROM SUPERCELL STORMS APPEAR
THE PRIMARY THREATS; NOT CONFIDENT THE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE FOR A
NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NECESSARY, THOUGH LCLS APPEAR LOWER
THAN THEY ONCE HAD. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN OUR AREA APPEARS
GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST NC COUNTIES, NORTHEAST GA, AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE, BUT AT LEAST HAIL AND WIND THREATS WOULD APPEAR
TO EXTEND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLOSELY ALIGNED TO THE SHEAR VECTORS AND STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS, MAINLY TRACKING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REFS HAS A SIGNAL
FOR A SWATH OF 1" TO 2" TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE EVENING ACTIVITY
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. STILL THINK THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT, BUT IF MULTIPLE
INTENSE T-STORMS TRAIN OVER ANY AREAS AS APPEARS POSSIBLE, CAN'T
RULE OUT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ESP. IN URBAN AREAS.
ANOTHER LULL IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT
THE FRONT ITSELF MAY NOT CLEAR THE CWA SOON ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT IN THE I-85 CORRIDOR OR POINTS
SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION APPEARS SHALLOWER BUT STILL STRONGLY SHEARED
AND WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT, SO STORMS STILL COULD BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH THE OTHER THREATS WOULD BE APPRECIABLY LESS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FROM
THURSDAY. BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A KINK IN THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND BUBBLES UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE WEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A QPF
RESPONSE WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE NEXT RAINFALL OPPORTUNITY, BUT IS TOO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST TO PINPOINT ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME. LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAINING A
CALMER PATTERN TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WARM AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MAY, WITH A DIP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND QUICK RETURN TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND CIRRUS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THRU DAYBREAK. DECAYING CONVECTION
IN THE FORM OF -SHRA COULD REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS AROUND THAT
TIME, WARRANTING VCSH AT KAVL AS SOON AS 10Z. LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE 13-15Z MORNING AT THE SC SITES AND CLOSER TO MIDDAY AT
KCLT/KHKY. LOW VFR TO MVFR CUMULUS LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY DAYTIME HOURS, THOUGH ANY MORNING CIG RESTRICTIONS COULD
MIX BACK TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON, FORMING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHRA/TSRA REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. TEMPO REFLECTS THE TIME OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS FROM PASSING TSRA, NAMELY IFR VSBY AND/OR CIG, WITH PROB30
USED TO COVER PERIOD WITH LOWER OVERALL CHANCE. GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
(BRIEFLY EVEN HIGHER) WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSRA. WSHFT WITH COLD
FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT MAKES ITS FINAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM THREATENS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JCW
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