839
FXUS62 KGSP 041757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONAL TUESDAY, WITH SOME MINOR CONCERNS
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONAL TUESDAY, WITH SOME MINOR
CONCERNS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AFTER A TRANSITION DAY TODAY, A MORE GRADUAL WARMUP AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
EAST COAST AND AN OPEN GULF ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SEEN ON FCST SOUNDINGS, BECAUSE IF WE CAN TAP INTO THAT
LAYER THE DEWPOINT WILL MIX OUT AGAIN LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
IN THE FORECAST, POSSIBLY DROPPING THE MIN RH WELL DOWN INTO THE
20 PERCENTS. FOR NOW THE CHANCES OF THAT APPEAR TO BE SMALL, BUT
WE HAVE MIXED IN SOME OF THE DRIER GUIDANCE TO HEDGE ON THE DRIER
SIDE, WHICH BRINGS THE MIN RH DOWN TO AROUND 30 PCT IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC. THE IMPROVING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL LOCATED WELL TO OUR NW IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD CONTRIBUTE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH,
SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER. BUT, WE'VE
ALREADY GREENED UP OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WHICH LIMITS THE OVERALL
CONCERN. WE SHALL MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND EXCESSIVE RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY, SO
WE MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
AND EXCESSIVE RAIN THREATS FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR REGION BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN RAIN CHANCES AS WE STILL HAVE
A LOT GOING FOR US IN TERMS OF AN OPEN GULF AND A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT, SO CATEGORICAL PRECIP PROBS ARE A GOOD BET. AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CHANCES FOR GETTING MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN HAVE CREPT UPWARD A BIT MORE COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOTE THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR WED/WED NITE, BUT THERE ARE LIMITING FACTORS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING PAST TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD CUT BACK
ON OUR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WE WILL BE ABLE TO RE-EVALUATE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW, WHEN THE CAMS WILL GO OUT FAR ENOUGH IN
TIME TO CAPTURE MOST OF THE EVENT. THE THINKING ABOUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES HASN'T CHANGED MUCH, EITHER. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
TIMING ISSUE MORE THAN ANYTHING, WHICH MEANS THAT IT MIGHT DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING THAT GETS CRANKED UP FROM MS INTO AL ON
WEDNESDAY CAN SURVIVE TO MAKE A RUN AT OUR WESTERN BORDER. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE CAMS TOMORROW WILL BE ENLIGHTENING. IN THE MEAN TIME,
THE THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AFTER THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS INTO THE WEEKEND AND KEEPS
THE WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST FROM THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IN GENERAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MORE FREQUENTLY GUSTY PERIOD. IN BETWEEN, JUST A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT RESTRICTIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THAT TIME.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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