454
FXUS62 KGSP 302322
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
722 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY.
2. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS, AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS
RAIN CHANCES BACK FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVELING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. MOIST
UPGLIDE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE THE
ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, WITH RAIN BLOSSOMING
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AND COULD END UP ROUGHLY ALONG
THE I-85 CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 85 WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50" TO 1".
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. AREAS NORTH OF 85 WILL SEE LOWER RAINFALL
TOTALS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.50". HOWEVER, IF
THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ENDS UP SETTING UP FARTHER SOUTH,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER AREA-WIDE. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE GSP CWA AS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS OVER
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL END UP ~5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL END UP
~15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO BOTH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS, AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE AXIS OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY
FLAT FLOW THRU TUESDAY. A COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY THRU 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWFA, WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM COMPLETELY
DECOUPLING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT WILL BE SHELTERED
FROM THE NWLY FLOW AND WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
FROST DEVELOPMENT. ALSO, AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE ABOVE 3500 FT WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE
850 MB TEMPS THRU 12Z SUNDAY, BUT MOST MEMBERS SHOW 0 TO -2.5 DEG
C ALONG THE TN BORDER. A COMBINATION OF FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR
FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. TEMPS ELSEWHERE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPS SHOULD START A STEADY WARMING TREND SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS A SWLY FLOW ATOP THE
REGION. DEWPTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY RECOVER, BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES
MAY DIP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EACH AFTN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH FINE FUELS CAN
DRY OUT, THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NO MENTIONABLE POPS THRU 00Z WED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY AND HOW DEEP AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT IN FROM
THE WEST, LIKELY CROSSING THE CWFA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE GFS IS
ON THE FASTER AND SHALLOWER SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AND
BRINGS MOISTURE AND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS
EVEN SLOWER, AND HAS A NARROWER BAND OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY. ALL THAT TO SAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW QUICKLY
POPS WILL RAMP UP IN THAT TIME FRAME, BUT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF
RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE CWFA BY NEXT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN
LOWER ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT. THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS IF FOR GENERALLY 0.25-0.5" OF QPF, WITH 0.5-1.0" IN
THE SW-FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR WITH BKN TO OVC CIRRUS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS START OUT
NNW/N THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING NE LATE THIS EVENING INTO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S/SSW FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KAVL WILL START OUT NNW WITH
GUSTS LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
WIND AT KAVL WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SE BY MID-MORNING. WINDS AT KAVL SHOULD TURN
BACK TO THE NW BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS BACK
TO THE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/ARK/CAC
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