286
FXUS62 KGSP 210544
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1244 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THRU EARLY SUNDAY.
SNOW TOTALS FOR THE TN/NC BORDER SLIGHTLY DECREASED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2. A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THAT WILL BACK THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW AND
ADVECT MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WETTER WITH THIS FEATURE THRU SAT MORNING WITH SOLID
CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA AND LIKELY POPS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS SO WARM, NO WINTRY PRECIP
TYPES ARE EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT, DUE TO WEAK FORCING, A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO OVERCOME, AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE SFC WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN DEEPEN- ING
AS A COASTAL LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS TAPERING OFF/MOVING EAST OF OUR FCST
AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR, BUT BETTER
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEB.
OTHERWISE, A ROBUST SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO DIG FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT THRU EARLY SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. AS A RESULT,
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR
FCST AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH POPS RETURNING TO LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE STRONGER FORCING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE TAME WITH THIS SHORT- DURATION EVENT, GENERALLY IN THE 0.10
TO 0.30 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT,
BUT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS COLD
ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEPENING
COASTAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS, ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS END SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SYSTEM TREKS UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRAVERSES NORTHEAST.
THE LOW SWEEPS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH A BRIEF CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS EAST OF I-26 LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW CONTINUING NORTHEAST AND ON THE
BACKSIDE, BRINGING NW FLOW SNOW TO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER. GUIDANCE BRINGS SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET. GIVEN THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THESE COUNTIES AND THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. GIVEN THE ELEVATION DEPENDENCY, IMPACTS TO
ROADWAYS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO
BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, COLD TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY NW WINDS COULD CREATE
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH BELOW ZERO
VALUES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE TROUGH DIPPING OVER THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT GUSTS GREATER THAN 45MPH ARE
POSSIBLE (50-60% CHANCE) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS FAR AS COLD
TEMPERATURES, GUIDANCE DEPICTS VALUES TOO WARM FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY SO THIS PRODUCT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
GENERAL FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT BY MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR LINGERS UNTIL MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS, SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORMAL RANGE. BRIEF
RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS IS AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HINT AT. THE MODELS ALSO
START TO PICK UP ON ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING AND PUSHING
THROUGH WITH THE FROPA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS OF THIS
POTENTIAL NEXT SYSTEM ARE TOO VAGUE, BUT IF IT DEVELOPS, COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING NEEDED RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS,
IN SPITE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE SO DRY THAT
EVEN IF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS IT WOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
VIS AT 6 MI OR GREATER, AND AT THE SAME TIME WOULD FAIL TO BRING
THE CEILING DOWN LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RESTRICTION. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY FOR THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MTNS TO BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER FORCING AT LOW LEVELS TO RESULT IN A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THIS
SHOULD BE A STEADY EXPANSION OF MVFR FROM THE MTNS OUTWARD BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT COULD ALSO INCLUDE SOME IFR BY MIDNIGHT
OR SO. WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT
KAVL WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JPT/PM
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