812
FXUS62 KGSP 030014
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
814 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND,
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG-TO-
SEVERE.
2. THE HEAT THREAT BEGINS TO WANE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO A MORE TRADITIONAL MID SUMMER PATTERN FEATURING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG-TO-
SEVERE.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE IN
A WEAKENING PHASE AS A SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS IMPACT THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THE BIG STORY WILL REMAIN THE HEAT. IF
ANYTHING, FRI AND SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, AS
AMBIENT TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PIEDMONT...ESP THE I-77 CORRIDOR BOTH DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES DEPICT A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS PROMOTING
DEEPER MIXING, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DECREASING A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON WITH RECENT DAYS. AS SUCH,
FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR HIGHER ARE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
FOR FRIDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY,
BUT WHEN THE TIME COMES...WE WILL CERTAINLY WANT TO ENTERTAIN THE
IDEA OF AN "IMPACT-BASED" ADVISORY FOR THE HOLIDAY, EVEN FOR AREAS
WHERE FORECAST H.I. IS FORECAST TO FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY
OF CRITERIA. THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY AND RECREATION, SHOULD
PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SBCAPE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT GREATER THAN 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA...BUT STRONG BUOYANCY AND ROBUST DOWNDRAFT CAPE (> 1100 J/KG)
INDICATES THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP IS LIKELY TO BECOME AT
LEAST STRONG...WITH A COUPLE-ISH SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS BEING A GOOD BET. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PICTURE IS EXPECTED FRI/SAT, WITH DIURNAL, MOUNTAIN-CENTRIC
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...WHILE ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP STANDS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG-TO-BRIEFLY
SEVERE. WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN A BREAKING-DOWN PHASE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOST
TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE HEAT THREAT BEGINS TO WANE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TRADITIONAL MID SUMMER PATTERN FEATURING
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEAT EVENT
WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A TYPICAL SOUTHERN CONUS/SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK. BY MONDAY, DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COUPLE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW-MOVING AND ISOLATED
ANCHORED CELLS. FORECAST TEMPS "COOL" TO MORE LIKE 5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO MONDAY, WITH NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT ALL OUR TAF SITES THRU THE 00Z PERIOD. WE'VE STILL
GOT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SC UPSTATE AND NE
GEORGIA THIS EVENING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. A THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST OF
KGMU AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THEIR TERMINAL AREA BY 01Z, IF NOT
SOONER. OVERNIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ARE LIKELY TO REDE-
VELOP ACROSS THE FAVORED MTN VALLEYS, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH KAVL. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT HAS A MENTION
OF CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY IS KAVL, WHERE A PROB30 FOR TSRA IS
CARRIED FROM 19 TO 24Z. OTHER SITES COULD BE IMPACTED BY CON-
VECTION, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THE
TAFS. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THRU THE
PERIOD, AND GENERALLY FAVOR A S TO SE DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTN/
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CON-
TINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MTN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
RECORDS FOR 07-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 96 1948 71 1976 70 2024 46 1967
2018 1933
KCLT 101 2024 66 1892 78 2024 57 1967
KGSP 101 2024 70 1976 78 2016 58 1967
1933
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-069>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ009-011>014-
019.
JDL/JPT
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