009
FXUS62 KGSP 140714
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT INDICES HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST HOT AND MUGGY DAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
2. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST HOT AND MUGGY DAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A REMNANT MCV/VORT-MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TN WILL ENTER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND MIDDAY TODAY, HELPING TRIGGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE CAMS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV VERY WELL, BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PICKING UP ON IT IN RECENT RUNS. IT HAS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN, THEN SHOWING SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME ORGANIZATION OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
AROUND OUTFLOWS. MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MAY RESULT IN LOWER DCAPE, WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. NEVERTHELESS, A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. THE NEW DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. THE LATEST NBM
HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY ON MAX TEMPS, POSSIBLY DUE TO CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BEFORE MAX HEATING. ALSO, DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, HELPING KEEP HEAT
INDICES MAINLY IN THE 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 100-104
POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN ON THE CAMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SFC FRONT AS IT PUSHES IN FROM TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG AND NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
TROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, USHERING
IN COOLER, AND DRIER AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL COMBINED WITH DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WILL FEEL RATHER COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE
EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW DAYS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER, EXCEPT FOR SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POPS SNEAKING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE FRONT
STALLS OUT NOT TO FAR SOUTH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND COULD TRIGGER SOME LIFT OVER
THE STALLED FRONT AND BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. THEY SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING OUT,
BUT LINGERING ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY ALLOW A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
(OR AT LEAST ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE) TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
NW GULF AND INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GULF
COAST. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY, LIKELY REACHING THE CWFA ON FRIDAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE NBM HAS POPS INCREASING THURSDAY, AND PEAKING TO
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY. AS FAR AS SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAIN THREATS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: RADIATION FOG HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KAVL,
AND MAY EXPAND/DRIFT TOWARD KAVL THRU DAYBREAK, SO HAVE KEPT
THE TEMPO MVFR VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, EXCEPT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT IMPACTS THE TERMINALS
TODAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY AFTN, BUT REMAINING MORE
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY TRACKS EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT
MID AFTN TO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 FOR TS AT
ALL SITES. OVERALL, TIMING HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SW AND BECOME GUSTY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT DURING MID TO LATE
AFTN IN THE UPSTATE AND AT KCLT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING,
TOGGLING TO WSW, EXCEPT NW AT KAVL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN,
WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED AT KAVL FOR NOW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THRU KCLT BEFORE 12Z MONDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO WNW.
OUTLOOK: QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK. VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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