537
FXUS62 KGSP 190540
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO MID WEEK, THEN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1000 PM: THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK. COPIOUS CIRRUS CONTINUES
TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THE THIN, NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. MEANWHILE, DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A
PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT MIXING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DESPITE THIS, STILL SEEING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVERNIGHT, WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH COOLING NE FLOW EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S READINGS, OR
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EDT MONDAY: THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFING OVER THE NE CONUS AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS, THE UPPER
TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE THE TROF AXIS
OVER THE CWFA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SFC,
BROAD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NE AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS. BY LATE WED/EARLY THURS, THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA
FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME SORT OF MESO-LOW TRIES TO
SPIN UP JUST OFF THE SE COAST, HOWEVER IT'S UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE
IT WILL BE CENTERED AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BECOME. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA ON THURS WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE. THERE
IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT, BUT NOT THAT MUCH. IN
ITS WAKE, VERY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE
REGION. WED SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES MATERIALIZE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS TO GET SOME SNOW FLURRIES EARLY THURS,
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY: THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP UPPER TROFING CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST AND
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST. THE LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE TROF WILL GET REINFORCED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. AS IT DOES, HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AS
THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC, VERY BROAD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AS LIGHT SLY LOW-LVL
FLOW RETURNS TO THE FCST AREA. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX, NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST WITH DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
WEEKEND AND POPS RAMPING UP ON MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
WARM THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THRU THE PERIOD, KEEPING ALL SITES VFR AND TURNING WINDS AROUND OUT
OF THE NE. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS RESULTS IN SHORT TAFS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE 14-17Z TIME FRAME, MAINLY ACROSS
THE UPSTATE, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE THRU
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE LAST OF THE HIGH-BASED CU DISSIPATES EARLY THIS
EVENING, THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE THIN CIRRUS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND A DEVELOPING LOW AT THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
FIRE WEATHER
TUESDAY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND RH TO BE NOT AS
LOW AS TODAY. BUT IF TEMPS END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
DEWPTS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, ANOTHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA MAY BE NEEDED.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MUNROE
FIRE WEATHER...ARK
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