481
FXUS62 KGSP 281049
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH (1030+MB) CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SLIPS OFFSHORE TODAY, WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE
INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS SURFACE HIGH
TO CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A FEW TICKS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH VALUES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE ONSET OF COLD AIR DAMMING
AS A REINFORCING CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH (~1030MB) MOVES FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A CLASSICAL CAD LOCKS IN AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE
VARY ON THE DURATION AND QPF AMOUNTS AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE DIFFERENTLY. THE STRONGER THE SHORTWAVE,
THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE AND HELP TO SQUEEZE AS MUCH
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS POSSIBLE AND VICE VERSA. AS A RESULT,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW. CAD
BECOMES MORE IN-SITU AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LINGERING POPS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS ANY CLEAR CUT
WEDGE EROSION MECHANISM ISN'T VERY OBVIOUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT A STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP AT OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR KCLT: EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW STRATUS MOVING
INLAND FROM THE NC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WHILE A CIG
APPEARS UNLIKELY, THE DECK COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FEW012 MENTION THIS MORNING; FURTHERMORE VERY LOW DIURNAL
CUMULUS FORMATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH MID-MORNING. THOSE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR A TIME, BUT LOW VFR CUMULUS AGAIN MAY FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
APPEARS EVEN MORE CAPABLE OF FORMING STRATUS THAN THIS MORNING,
AND MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT THE FIELD. THINK CLOUDS MAY BE DEPICTED
TOO LOW IN GUIDANCE AS USUAL IN THIS SORT OF REGIME, HOWEVER, SO
INTRODUCED A VFR CIG AT 11Z THU AND ONLY SCT MVFR LEVEL MENTION,
WHICH POTENTIALLY WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE: ANOTHER DRY TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL BE SEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND MOST LIKELY ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH EVENING;
A FEW CUMULUS MAY BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS, EXCEPT ESE TO SE AT KAVL DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE
ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW VFR CIGS TO
KGSP/KGMU/KAVL BEFORE DAWN THU AND MVFR TO KHKY.
OUTLOOK: DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS WHICH DEVELOP THU
MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. RAIN RETURNS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JCW
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