134
FXUS62 KGSP 100655
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY, BEFORE A COOLING TREND SETS IN FOR
THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED IN THE AFTERNOONS
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS TO COOL OFF AND AVOID HEAT-RELATED STRESS.
2. AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY, BEFORE A COOLING TREND SETS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED IN THE AFTERNOONS
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS TO COOL OFF AND AVOID HEAT-RELATED STRESS.
PERSISTENT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR CONTINUED HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY, WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING, WITH GUSTY PIEDMONT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA COULD SEE HEAT INDEX ABOVE 100 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME OF
DAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, SUCH THAT HIGHS SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THE FIRST SUCH DAY IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS. BY
MONDAY, BROAD 1020+ MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/EASTERLY FLOW AND
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BRINGING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS
MONDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO TUE BEFORE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURN DURING MID-WEEK. HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER
MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SPILLS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MOSTLY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAKLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH SOME
RECENT DISSIPATION OF ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THIS AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AND USUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS
FOR ENHANCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY,
WITH MOSTLY 50-70 POPS ACROSS WESTERN NC...AND MORE LIKE 20-40%
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA...AS STEERING CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN SUCH THAT THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD GENERALLY BE CARRIED DUE EAST. SURFACE-BASED
CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR SOME DEGREE OF CELL CLUSTERING ALONG OUTFLOWS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HEIGHT
RISING STRONGLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS AND/OR MCVS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY PASSING OVER OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT COULD BE AREAS OF CONVECTION WANDERING
INTO THE AREA AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...INCLUDING OUTSIDE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL WINDOW. THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION,
AND A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED HEAVY-TO-EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
COULD DEVELOP THERE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. HAVING SAID THAT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR NOTEWORTHY CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION,
BUT THE USUAL MICROBURST THREAT FROM PULSE/MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHEN DEVELOPING ESE UPSLOPE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF WELL OVER 10 KFT MAY
YIELD SLOW-MOVING, EFFICIENT RAINFALL-PRODUCING CELLS. THE TIME
OF DAY/LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS AN OBVIOUS LIMITING
FACTOR, BUT THIS IS A DECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SET UP FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. STABLE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS QUICKLY MODIFIES UNDER JULY SUN
DURING MID-WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN OF TYPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY,
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG/LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS W THROUGH N OF KAVL. HAVING SAID THAT,
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT KAVL THIS MORNING, BUT IT'S
UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE HIGHER ACROSS
THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA IN COMPARISON WITH THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND PROB30S FOR TSRA ARE WARRANTED AT ALL SITES FROM
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEYOND THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TIME FRAME, AND THIS CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE THIS EVENING OR EVEN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY 4-8 KTS, EXPECT MOST SITES (KAVL AND
KHKY BEING THE EXCEPTIONS) SHOULD EXPERIENCE A STRETCH OF GUSTY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES FOR ALL TERMINALS
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE TOWARDS
AND ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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