639
FXUS62 KGSP 142319
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS IS LOW.
2. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST AND COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
PLACES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS IS LOW.
AN ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PROGRESSING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS AN
AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DIVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF FRIDAY. ATTENDANT STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. IN THE INTERIM, VERY WARM/NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
THU AND FRI. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE MINIMAL, AND IN FACT, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE MOISTURE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THAN IN THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE,
POPS FOR OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN DEVELOPING
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW/COLD ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
FRI EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING TN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR RIME ICING IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ~5000' BEFORE
THE MOISTURE DEPLETES SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS, BUT THESE ARE
MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST AND COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME PLACES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN THE FIRST TRUE AUTUMN
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT SHOULD BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LARGER
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FROSTY/LOCALIZED FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SETTLE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND VICINITY. WHILE A WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN FROST APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THERE'S AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE HIGH VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS SOME
OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL
SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON ON ONE OF THESE NIGHTS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR OUTSIDE THE MTNS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY/MON NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING TO RIGHT
AROUND CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY/PRECIP FREE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS SEASONABLY DRY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT THE DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL, WHERE THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT/INTO THE MORNING. RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL ARE BY NO MEANS
GUARANTEED, BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADVERTISE
PREVAILING MVFR VISBY WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR VISBY FROM 10 TO 13Z.
I CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT OTHER TAF SITES,
ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR LAKES (IE, KAND AND KHKY) BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE MORNING. THEY WILL
PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE S TO SW TOMORROW AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND
5 KTS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MTN VALLEY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING THRU FRIDAY. A ROBUST COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO THE MTNS FRIDAY
AFTN AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1928 51 1907 64 1954 25 1988
KCLT 87 2021 56 1922 68 1883 32 2006
1940 1881
KGSP 86 1985 57 1907 67 1954 30 1988
1928
RECORDS FOR 10-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907
1970
1928
KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006
KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907
1941 1970
RECORDS FOR 10-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939
KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939
1925
KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907
1911
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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