845
FXUS62 KGSP 310616
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS, BUT MOST PLACES VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FCST.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THRU
7 AM SUNDAY. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA, STARTING AT 1 PM SATURDAY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND RUNNING
THRU 1 PM SUNDAY, AND STARTING AT 7 PM SATURDAY ELSEWHERE AND RUNNING
THRU 10 AM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY
AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
2. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILL COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
3. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
SUNDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EVENT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.
BOTTOM LINE UP-FRONT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS IN MOST
PLACES, BUT SOME PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS WERE BUMPED UP AN INCH
OR TWO. NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WAS IN THE EARLY STAGES ACROSS WESTERN
NC AS OF MIDNIGHT, WITH LIGHT PRECIP EXPANDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MTNS AND INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS...ALL IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR THE PRECIP
SHIELD TO EXPAND OVER TOP OF THE FCST AREA, BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL BUT MAYBE THE SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE OF METRO CHARLOTTE. THE MAIN DRIVER OF THIS EVENT IS A
COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MS AND OH RIVERS AS OF MIDNIGHT, WHICH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ROLL DOWNHILL ON A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NOTE THIS 500 MB
LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE ORDER OF FIVE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
WAS TO ORIENT THE LOW ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT, WHICH MAY AFFORD
OUR FCST AREA A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/UPPER FORCING AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE
FCST AREA COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS, AS THE 850MB LOW MOVES OVER
NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THE QPF SEEN
ON THE HRRR AND NAMNEST HAS CREPT UPWARD OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS,
WHILE THE ECMWF/GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT. ALL REMAIN WELL WITHIN WARNING CRITERIA, EVEN WITH
MODEST QPF, BECAUSE OF THE ABNORMALLY HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO
EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP COLD AIR. NO FURTHER WARNING DECISIONS
NEED TO BE MADE, SO NOW WE JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME OF THE
DETAILS AND NUANCES OF HOW THE FCST WILL WORK OUT.
THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BANDED STRUCTURES IN THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY THOUGH THIS MIGHT NOT BE A STRONG CASE FOR MESOSCALE
BANDING. IF THAT WERE TO DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE SHARP STRIPES
AND GRADIENTS OF SNOWFALL. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE AT LEAST ONE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP/SNOW WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB LOW. WHAT
IS INTERESTING IS HOW SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOURCES WANT TO PLACE THE
BEST SNOW POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE OUT IN THAT TRIANGLE AREA BOUNDED
BY GSP/CLT/CAE LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH A STRIPE OF BETTER SNOW POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE IN NORTHEAST GA,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT WILL BE ELUSIVE UNTIL/UNLESS WE SEE
IT START TO MATERIALIZE. NOTE THAT IF WE HAVE BANDING, SOME PLACES
WILL GET LESS THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH...GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND THE
RATES HIGH ENOUGH...UPWARDS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...THAT EVEN
LOWER ACCUMS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES TO TRANSPORTATION
AS THE SNOW EASILY STICKS TO ROADWAYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENT THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SIGNALS STILL POINT TO THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVING OUT TO THE
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW ROLLS
EAST. IT STANDS TO REASON THAT WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE 850 MB LOW. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS
ADDED TO THE TN BORDER NW FLOW UPSLOPE ZONES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS LATER THIS MORNING, CONSIDER STAYING PUT
AND ONLY TRAVEL IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP
BLANKETS, AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN
CASE OF AN EMERGENCY AND IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
THERE WERE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE NEW GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT ANY COURSE OF
ACTION, SINCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS ALREADY UNDER AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING BEGINNING LATER TODAY. THERE MIGHT BE LESS CONFIDENCE
IN REACHING CRITERIAL IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT/LAKELANDS EARLY SUNDAY
BECAUSE THE WIND GUIDANCE IS NOT AS STRONG, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
REALLY COLD AT ANY RATE. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE NW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY. MANY LOCATIONS OVER
THE MTNS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE RIDGES
AND PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET COULD APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS
(ABOVE 55 MPH). THE WIND WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY,
BUT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE EXTREME COLD WARNING TO RUN OUT AND
BE REPLACED BY A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY,
BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW, WE WILL
ROLL ANY WIND ADVISORY/HIGH WIND WARNING CONCERNS INTO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AND MENTION THE WINDS IN THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
AS WELL.
THESE WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. DRESS IN LAYERS INCLUDING A HAT, FACE
MASK, AND GLOVES IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE. TO PREVENT WATER PIPES FROM
FREEZING; WRAP OR DRAIN OR ALLOW THEM TO DRIP SLOWLY. MAKE FREQUENT
CHECKS ON OLDER FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND NEIGHBORS. ENSURE PORTABLE
HEATERS ARE USED CORRECTLY. DO NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK.
BY MONDAY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS
THE BROAD/DEEP UPPER TROF TRANSLATES OFF THE THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND ROBUST, 500MB NW FLOW LINGERS OVER OUR REGION. ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF OUR LOWER TERRAIN. OVER-
NIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING, HOWEVER,
AND WILL SUPPORT REFREEZING OF MELTING SNOW/ICE EACH NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE EVI-
DENT. AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE
DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A STOUT WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
VARIES AS TO HOW THIS TROF EVOLVES WITH SOME MEMBERS MAINTAINING
A MORE POSITIVE TILT WHILE OTHERS TRANSITION IT INTO A NEUTRAL TO
NEAR NEGATIVE TILT WITH AN UPPER LOW TRYING TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
TN VALLEY. EVENTUALLY, THIS BRINGS A SLUG OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THRU AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, THE TRACK OF THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW, AND
THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS WRT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS
MORE SNOW EARLY THURSDAY OVER WESTERN NC, WITH MOSTLY RAIN OVER
OUR SC AND GA ZONES. THIS TYPE OF OUTCOME WOULD RESULT FROM THE
SFC LOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER TROF
INTERACTION AND COLDER AIR IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NC. IF THIS TYPE
OF SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT, WE CAN EXPECT MORE WINTER WEATHER FOR
AT LEAST PART OF OUR FCST AREA. AT PRESENT, THERE'S STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR WITH SNOW HAS BEGUN AT KAVL, VFR
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS A
WINTER STORM MORE OR LESS DEVELOPS RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
PROB30S FOR IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK, THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY WITH IFR
VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. TEMPOS THEN DEPLOYED FOR LIFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS
IN HEAVIER SNOW, THEN THE SAME BUT WITH PROB30S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING LOW VFR, THOUGH BLOWING SNOW COULD STILL BE MORE
OF A RESTRICTION THAN INDICATED. NE WINDS PICK UP SPEED BECOMING
GUSTY BY DAYBREAK WITH STRONGER GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KAVL SEES A LIGHT SE WIND BECOMING N BY DAYBREAK THEN VERY
GUSTY NNW THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY BUT GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING PRECIP
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-
509.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
JPT/PM/RWH
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