304
FXUS62 KGSP 121837
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RISK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
RISK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LOW.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE THIS PAST MORNING WHEN A MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE VALLEYS IN RABUN COUNTY GA. THE
WIND SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND CLOUDS IN
THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN BORDER
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HIGH TEMPS, WHICH SHOULD PEAK AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WEATHER LOOKS FAIR AND PERSISTENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IN THAT
THE PATTERN BECOMES NEARLY STAGNANT WITH A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE
MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE NW GULF COAST TODAY TO THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR, WITH
BRIGHT SUNNY SKY THAT ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM UP ABOUT TEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND CLEAR NIGHTS THAT SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT GETS STRUNG OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BUT THAT
BOUNDARY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
THE PATTERN FINALLY GETS MOVING LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROF DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA PHASES WITH SOME ENERGY
FROM A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RESULTANT
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BARRELS EASTWARD AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR EAST
LOOKS POOR. ON THE TN SIDE OF THE MTNS, UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD STAY DRY. YOU
WILL NOTICE THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. A LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
DROPPING THE TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL HAVE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES GOING FROM TEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BOTH
DAYS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THE FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE THE MTNS. REMAINING STRATOCU ON THE TN SIDE OF
THE MTNS SHOULD FADE BY SUNSET. WIND REMAINS A MINOR CONCERN AS
WE STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING GUSTS FROM THE NW, BUT THAT SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, THE USUAL FOG/LOW STRATUS
CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND NEAR THE RIVERS,
BUT FOR NOW THE INDICATION IS THAT IT WOULD DEVELOP IN THE FR
BROAD RIVER VALLEY ABOVE AND BELOW KAVL, SO THEY WILL REMAIN VFR
IN THIS FORECAST. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE LIGHTER WINDS WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH-BASED STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR OUTSIDE OF MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM
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