356
FXUS62 KGSP 241058
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH WEEKEND BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH WEEKEND BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL, THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK BENIGN ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THE
NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDING ON
LONGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS AN INTERESTING CHANGE,
BUT ULTIMATELY JUST PROLONGS THE QUIETNESS BECAUSE WE ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE PART OF THE BLOCK. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS TO OUR WEST SUPPORTS A PARENT SFC HIGH THAT DRIFTS FROM THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (ASIDE FROM PATCHY STRATUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT, LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING). THUS, TEMPS TODAY IN THE
AREA EAST OF THE MTNS WILL BE ONLY FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE THE ONLY CLUE THAT WE ARE UNDER A WEDGE BY
THAT TIME. FOR TONIGHT, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT FROST
POTENTIAL IN THE MTN VALLEYS, BUT THE TREND IN THE FCST HAS LOW
TEMPS CREEPING UPWARD A BIT AS WE MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST WIND, SO
ONLY PATCHY FROST IS INDICATED IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE FRENCH BROAD
RIVER. TEMPS MODIFY UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WE END UP A CATEGORY ABOVE
NORMAL. IF THERE'S GOING TO BE ANY LOW-RH PROBLEMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
BE TUESDAY. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SFC HIGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY WEDGE, SO TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN
BRIEFLY BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STRENGTHENING EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN PRIMARILY NE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD,
PICKING UP TO 10-12 KT MOST OF TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-18
KT. KAVL MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF VRB. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED ON
THE NE'LY FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST-FACING BLUE
RIDGE, WHICH HAS CAUSED PERIODIC CIGS AT KHKY, KAVL, KGMU. THESE
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT BUT THE THREAT OF CIGS WILL LAST
THROUGH 14-15Z, HENCE TEMPOS AT THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT, VEERING ALOFT SLIGHTLY WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PERSISTS. HENCE ANOTHER STRATUS EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. KCLT, KHKY, KAVL ALL GET A FEW MENTION OF MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS
AT THAT TIME; GIVEN THE REORIENTED FLOW, KCLT PROBABLY HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF A CIG TONIGHT VS. SAT MORNING.
OUTLOOK: BREEZY NE WINDS LINGER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY RADIATION FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/JCW
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