327
FXUS62 KGSP 110639
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HUMIDITY TRENDING LOWER EACH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATED DETAILS ON WHAT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE AN ALL-
RAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORNING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHTER WINDS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS GENERALLY
SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AREAS, AND/OR ISOLATED BANKFULL CONDITIONS ON
AREA STREAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORNING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND TODAY BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RAIN TRACKING EAST ACROSS EASTERN TN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
COULD MISS OUT ON THE RAIN THIS MORNING AS THE NBM AND CAMS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING VERY LITTLE RAIN, IF ANY, DEVELOPING. THUS,
POPS WILL REMAIN LOWEST ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS (LESS THAN 25%). QPF
WILL BE LIGHT, WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25" TO 0.50"
EXPECTED ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000
FT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 0.75" TO 1.0" ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NC/TN BORDER. LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE WILL BE LUCKY TO PICK UP
0.05" TO 0.10" OF RAINFALL (IF ANY). LOWS THIS MORNING WILL END UP
~20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ~10-14 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING MINIMUM RH TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW 25%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, MORNING RAIN
SHOULD WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GUSTY WINDS STICK AROUND TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS START OUT W/SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TURNING NW BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL END UP JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE
THEN EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ENDING UP ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW 25% FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR OR BELOW 30% ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH RHS BOTH AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RETURN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
GENERALLY SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS, AND/OR ISOLATED BANKFULL CONDITIONS ON
AREA STREAMS.
DEEP PACIFIC SHORTWAVE STILL SET TO TAKE AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ECMWF, GFS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON THE
SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WHEREAS EARLIER RUNS OF THOSE
MODELS HAD HINTED AT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
KY/TN. THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN REMAINS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS/EC, THOUGH IT TOO HAS TRENDED SOUTH. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP WARRANTED IN OUR CWA SW OF I-26 SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND EXPANDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. PEAK COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY, TAPERING OFF AGAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND EC ALSO SHOW DRY AND RELATIVELY WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY MORNING. THAT HIGH IS DEPICTED
AS SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW,
BUT BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SLIGHT DIABATIC COOLING RESPONSE AS
PRECIP DEVELOPS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS IN-SITU COLD-AIR DAMMING. THOSE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP
TO BE ONLY RAIN IN OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN DOES REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH ITS EARLIER RUNS IN SHOWING A REINFORCING, STRONGER HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, SUGGESTING
MORE OF A HYBRID CAD EVENT. THIS MEANT IT WAS MORE EFFECTIVE AT
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AND THUS HAD CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WINTRY
PRECIP IMPACTS (MAINLY DUE TO FZRA) IN OUR AREA EVEN AFTER THE
OTHER MODELS TRENDED WARMER. THAT SAID, EVEN THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
TRENDED WARMER SO IT WOULD NOW ALSO SUGGEST ALL RAIN. THE CANADIAN
GEPS ENSEMBLE DOES STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 0.01" FZRA
ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, NEARLY 50%, SUBSTANTIALLY
HIGHER THAN THE GEFS OR EC ENS PROBS. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR THERE,
THOUGH THE CONSENSUS PATTERN AND OVERALL GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUE
TO POINT TO AN ALMOST IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT. FORECAST TEMPS
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY REFLECT A BLEND OF NBM AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH REDUCES THE DIURNAL RANGE COMPARED TO THE STRAIGHT NBM,
AND REMOVES COLD TEMP-BIAS ARTIFACTS IN HIGH ELEVATIONS THAT WERE
PRODUCING SPURIOUS OCCURRENCES OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST MINOR HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, ONE MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THAT ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE DRY. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES EACH FEATURED SIMILAR
PWAT ANOMALIES PEAKING NEAR +2 SD JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND 90TH
PERCENTILE TOTAL QPF IN THE 2-3" RANGE. THERE DO REMAIN SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK/TIMING AS WELL AS IN EACH ENSEMBLE'S
HANDLING OF CAD, WHICH RESULTED IN EACH ENSEMBLE'S MEAN QPF BEING
FOCUSED IN A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION. PERHAPS NO SURPRISE,
THE CANADIAN HAS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TERRAIN-ENHANCED QPF DUE
TO ITS MEMBERS LEANING TOWARD STRONGER CAD, AND MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK RESULTING IN A STRONGER LLJ ORIENTED MORE FAVORABLY
FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE OTHER ENSEMBLES
CERTAINLY DON'T DISCOUNT THAT POSSIBILITY, BUT THE SIGNAL IS
STRONGEST AMONG THE GEPS MEMBERS. ALSO SEEING SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR MUCAPE THAN WAS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO, THOUGH
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LOOK VERY WEAK OWING TO DEEP MOISTURE. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT POINTED OUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF
FRONTOGENETICALLY ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IS MORE
OF AN INDICATOR OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN (AND FLOOD) THREAT THAN
IS THE SMALL AMOUNT OF MUCAPE POTENTIALLY IN PLAY. MMEFS AND HEFS
OUTPUT FOR OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS STILL SUGGEST A LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE OF SEEING BANKFULL CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE SW NC VALLEYS
OR THE SAVANNAH AND BROAD RIVER BASINS, BUT THE CHANCE WOULD BE
HIGHER ON SMALL TRIBUTARIES. CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALIZED DEVELOPMENT
OF NUISANCE FLOODING (E.G. ROAD CLOSURES) IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS
BELOW THE ESCARPMENT, OR IN THE MORE FLOODPRONE URBAN AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF -RA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. -RA MAY ALLOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING
OFF ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONLY WENT WITH A PROB30 AT KHKY FOR -RA AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER THIS
TERMINAL WILL ACTUALLY SEE PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ELSEWHERE SO WENT WITH TEMPOS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ONSET OF -RA FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING -RA ONCE THE TEMPO ENDS. -RA
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KAVL WILL TURN NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
SW THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING NW LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. INTERMITTENT GUSTY
WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
AT KAVL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 7-14 KTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 18-24
KTS. BKN TO OVC CLOUD COVER SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JCW
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