224  
FXUS62 KGSP 020607  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
207 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH  
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AT THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 150 AM: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE AXIS OF  
AN UPPER TROUGH ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE  
APPALACHIANS. DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH  
AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY ACROSS  
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...MOVING TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING. MUCH  
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS,  
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL OFF THE CLIFF ACROSS  
WESTERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, GUIDANCE ALSO DRIES OUT  
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ENOUGH SUCH THAT THERE IS  
LITTLE SBCAPE FORECAST ACROSS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, GOOD  
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALONG/EAST OF  
SURFACE TROUGH...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...WHERE 60 TO 70 POPS ARE CARRIED  
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-77. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY  
TOWARD THE WEST...WITH GENERAL 20-30% CHANCES ADVERTISED ALONG THE  
BLUE RIDGE...AND AT MOST 10% PROBABILITIES ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER.  
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF A PULSE SEVERE  
STORM OR TWO IN EASTERN AREAS, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN  
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND  
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH  
MID-AFTERNOON OR SO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF  
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW  
NORMAL OWING TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE  
MORE OR LESS DONE BY THIS EVENING, AS LOWER PWAT AIR OVERTAKES THE  
ENTIRE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY: PICKING UP THURSDAY, A RIDGE OVER THE  
CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFIES AND STARTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE, A  
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE  
COUNTRY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE NE AS THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE  
NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS  
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SHUNTING RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS  
TIME, POPS REMAIN UNMENTIONABLE AND BELOW THE 15% THRESHOLD. WITH  
THIS TIME OF YEAR, A STRAY SHOWER ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS  
GIVEN THE DAYTIME HEATING IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW  
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT  
THE LOW 90S WITH THE HEAT INDEX PEAKING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FROM  
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. ALL IN ALL, A PLEASANT FORECAST TO KICK OFF THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY: BY SATURDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO  
THE SHORT TERM, QUIET. GUIDANCE SLOWLY SHIFTS THE HIGH PRESSURE AT  
THE SURFACE OFF THE COASTLINE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, KEEPING RAIN  
CHANCES LESS THAN 15%. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO LIFT THIS TROPICAL  
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SKIRTS IT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST,  
BUT THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT IT WOULD AFFECT THE CWA.POPS  
START TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (15-  
35%) AHEAD OF RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. LONG RANGE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE HIGHER POPS  
REMAIN AS USUAL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. MEANWHILE, TOWARD THE END  
OF THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE DOES PAINT A PICTURE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE  
OUT WEST THAT MAY OR MAY NOT SHIFT MORE EASTWARD. HIGHER HEIGHTS  
MEANS AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS  
OF 100+ HEAT INDEX IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES, INCLUDING CHARLOTTE BY  
TUESDAY ONWARD. IT'S JULY AFTER ALL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD  
LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK. STILL, RELATIVELY TYPICAL  
FOR SUMMERTIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED  
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY  
JUST LINGERING SPOTTY/SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND. SOME DEGREE OF  
VCSH IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY  
UNLIKELY THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL IMPACT ANY TAF SITE THIS  
MORNING. THEREFORE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EXPANDING LOW CIGS  
AS MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS  
TRENDS IS MODERATE AT BEST, BUT THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A GENERAL  
DETERIORATION TO IFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. PERIODS OF LIFR ARE  
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL  
SINCE YESTERDAY. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO HAVE GENERALLY  
LIMITED CIGS TO IFR WITH SCT LAYERS AT THE LIFR LEVEL. EXPECT HIGH  
CLOUD COVER TO GENERALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...BIT STILL  
EXPECT MVFR VISBY AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD  
BEGIN IMPROVING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR FORECAST AT ALL  
SITES BY LATE MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED  
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS  
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO KCLT...ALTHOUGH CAN'T  
RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY AS WELL. PROB30S FOR  
TSRA ARE CARRIED AT THESE FOUR SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND SUSPECT  
KCLT WILL BE TRANSITIONED TO A TEMPO AT SOME POINT. WINDS WILL BE  
MAINLY LIGHT SW THROUGH TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK: DRIER AIR MOVING IN THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT  
DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AT MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY  
EXPECTED EACH DAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING  
IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS,  
AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DEO  
NEAR TERM...JDL  
SHORT TERM...CP  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...JDL  
 
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