556
FXUS62 KGSP 280710
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING AFTER MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER HAS
WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR ENTIRE FCST
AREA THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 PM THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS WINDY ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER DRY
AIR WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA.
2. A STEADY CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS WINDY ON
SUNDAY, HOWEVER DRY AIR WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS
THE AREA.
A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER OUR
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE NOW TO OUR EAST. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY. BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GUSTS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
(<45 MPH), BUT LOCATIONS ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR, AND THIS MORNING'S
LOWS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS/GUSTS WILL DIMIN-
ISH THRU THE AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN BREEZY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN
THESE SCENARIOS, WE CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE NBM DEWPTS, ESPE-
CIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25% FOR
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA, WITH EVEN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
25% RANGE. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST
RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OVERLAP, LOCAL LAND MANAGERS REMAIN
CONCERNED ABOUT THE FCST GIVEN THE DRY FUELS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES
IN NC. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
ENTIRE FCST AREA TODAY.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE
OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. DESPITE A WEAK SLY FLOW SETTING
UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED AS THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. I UNDERCUT THE NBM
DEWPTS AGAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30%
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. AS SUCH, A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, UNDER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD BOTTOM-
OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR THE MTNS
AND POSSIBLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND WITH VALUES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STEADY CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING.
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A STEADY UPPER RIDGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK, BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE EMERGES. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND AMPLIFIES, SPREADING A MUCH DEEPER
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION. THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR THE CWA IS SUPPRESSED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, GUIDANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH AND A CONTINUED
FETCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM, THE STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES EASTWARD, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. POP STARTS TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, DESPITE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING,
MAINLY FROM TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, THE QPF RESPONSE
LOOKS MINIMAL, EVEN AT THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW, THE CHANCES FOR RECEIVING
AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN OVER A TWO-DAY PERIOD ARE 20-30% FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS AN UPWARD TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOOKING EVEN BEYOND DAY 7, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
EMERGING, SO THINGS COULD START SHIFTING. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY TICK UPWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONT. COULD SEE
HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WE'RE STILL SEEING SOME SCT SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF KCLT, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
OUR FCST AREA WITH ALL TERMINALS REPORTING NW TO NE WINDS WITH
GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AT MOST SITES. KAVL HAS BEEN
REPORTING MOSTLY FEW TO SCT CLOUDS IN AROUND 3000 FT OVER THE
PAST FEW HRS, SO IT'S LOOKING LIKE MVFR CIGS WON'T MATERIALIZE
THERE GOING FORWARD. OTHERWISE, KAVL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS
FROM THE NNW IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THRU MUCH OF THE MORNING.
WINDS/GUSTS WILL WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONS STILL
FROM THE N/NNW. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND VRB LATER THIS
EVENING. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INCREASE THRU THE OVERNIGHT WHILE TURNING TOWARD THE NNE WITH
GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 26 KT RANGE. WINDS/GUSTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING
AS DIRECTIONS VEER AROUND TO NE AND THEN E/SE BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-303-501>510.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
CP/JPT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page