725
FXUS62 KGSP 280625
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AVERY COUNTY AND THE
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT FOR MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES DUE TO
LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY, WITH
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL NOW LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AVERY COUNTY AND YANCEY AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES ABOVE 3500 FT FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. ALSO,
PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY SPOTS THAT
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
2. EXTENDED COLD WAVE CONTINUES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WHEN A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
3. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING UP
TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AVERY COUNTY AND YANCEY
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES ABOVE 3500 FT FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. ALSO,
PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY SPOTS THAT
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A DRY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO
BE SIMILAR, IF NOT A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3500 FT NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE COLDER
HIGHS TODAY WITH STRONG CAA. THE PASSING FRONG WILL BRING INCREASED
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THRU THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH PEAK
GUSTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLDER TEMPS TO PRODUCE SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR AVERY AND ABOVE 3500 FT IN MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES, WHERE
-5 OR LOWER WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ALSO, THERE ARE SOME LINGERING BLACK ICE CONCERNS FROM REFROZEN
MELTING SLEET. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION CONTINUE THRU EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD
BE SLIPPERY SPOTS IN SHADY PLACES AND ROADS THAT STILL HAVE MELTING
SNOW OR SLEET PILES ON THE SHOULDERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED COLD WAVE CONTINUES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WHEN A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WITH WINDS BEING A
NON-ISSUE, HEADLINES FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE
FROM COLD WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE COLD WAVE (FRIDAY WILL BE THE 7TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF
10+ DEGREE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.) EVEN COLDER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM, WITH WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, A
ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY COULD BRING
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGH PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS
ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING UP
TO THE EVENT, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/EVOLVING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DIG FROM THE CORN BELT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, TO THE
TENN VALLEY BY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVER, OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY...BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED W/ STRONG DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENCE
AS TIME PASSES. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DIFFLUENCE
WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. WHAT IS BECOMING CLEAR IS
THAT SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO
ALLOW FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO IMPACT AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
AT LEAST SOLID CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. IN TERMS OF THE
PRECIP TYPE, TEMPERATURES MAY BORDERLINE AT THE RA/SN BOUNDARY
FOR SOME AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT, BUT ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. IN TERMS OF QPF,
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS IN THE 0.25-0.5" RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE BEING MORE PROBABLE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-77
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WITH FORECAST PROFILES QUICKLY COOLING TO
WELL-BELOW FREEZING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER, AND SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE 20S, SNOW RATIOS LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN
THE TEXTBOOK 10:1 RULE OF THUMB WITH THIS EVENT, WITH SNOW RATIO
GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTING RATIOS OF
15-20:1 ARE VERY POSSIBLE. BASED UPON THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS, MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL, WITH SOLID CHANCES FOR
WARNING-LEVEL SNOW OF 3" OR OVER AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-26. MUCH
OF THIS EVENT IS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...AND SO SOME DEGREE OF
DETERMINISTIC RUN-TO-RUN MODEL SHENANIGANS ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WITH SINGLE MODEL RUNS DEPICTING JOGS TO
THE EAST (LESS SNOW) OR TO THE WEST (MORE SNOW) TO BE EXPECTED,
BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT AT LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
TO THE TUNE OF 15-20 COLDER THAN CLIMO...LIKELY EVEN COLDER THAN
THAT IN AREAS WHERE SNOW COVERS THE GROUND. NEVERTHELESS, SUNNY
SKIES ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF MELTING.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY, ALBEIT REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO
BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST. LIGHT WNW WIND OR VRB AT THE PIEDMONT
SITES THRU LATE-MORNING, THEN TOGGLING TO SW AND INCREASING TO
5-10 KT WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE AT THE UPSTATE SITES LATE
AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY NNW AT KAVL WITH A LULL IN
GUSTS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK, BUT RESUMING AROUND MIDDAY. AN AREA
OF CIRRUS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN. NWLY UPSLOPE
FLOW STRATUS AND FLURRIES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL OVERNIGHT,
BUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TOWARD THE NORTH AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN A COASTAL LOW POSSIBLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL LINGER.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JDL
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