966
FXUS62 KGSP 131036
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
THEN GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY, THEN GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST, AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWFA BORDER. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SLIGHTLY INTO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, WHICH
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY DIURNAL MOUNTAIN-TOP-INITIATED ACTIVITY.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS,
AS DCAPE SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH, GIVEN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK, LEADING TO A PULSE STORM MODE. THE 00Z CAMS ARE NOT
IMPRESSED THRU 00Z, EXCEPT FOR THE USUALLY HOT HIRES-WINDOW FV3,
BUT DO SHOW AN UPTICK IN MAINLY SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT, AS IT MAY REACTIVATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE AND
WHAT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
A MORE ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS
THRU THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BRINGS MORE PRONOUNCED HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A SFC COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PEAK
HEATING AND CROSS THE CWFA THRU THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPTICK IN
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT ALONG WITH BETTER FORCING COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STORM MODE LOOKS TO BE A FEW
LINEAR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS TRACKING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE NBM POPS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THAT CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE NEW DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK,
WHICH LOOKS GOOD. CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY
LATE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE
NORTH, TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT, BUT WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 90S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 103 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK IS HIGHLIGHTING MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85 TODAY. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO IT BEING EARLY IN THE SUMMER WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG
ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, PLEASE BE SURE TO TAKE PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS.
DEWPTS AND TEMPERATURES MAY CREEP UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, SOME AREAS MAY PUSH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
A NICE REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT SHOULD ARRIVE MONDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPTS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE DRY AIR MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH
IN TO MAKE FOR A BASICALLY DRY DAY, ALTHOUGH THE NBM STILL HAS
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POPS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HELPS SHUNT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. FROM THERE,
THE FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WARM
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONT TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST NBM HAS THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY, BUT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PUSHED THE
HIGHER CHANCES BACK TO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCES ARE MARGINAL AT KAVL, BUT WILL KEEP A PROB30
FROM 19-23Z. CHANCES TOO LOW ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE CU FIELD STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY AFTN, THEN DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTN, AND OTHERWISE QUITE
VRB THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SW AGAIN SUNDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL LOW-END GUSTS BY EARLY AFTN. SO, WILL MENTION IN
THE KCLT TAF THAT GOES TO 18Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THEN RELATIVELY QUIET THRU
MIDWEEK. VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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