646
FXUS62 KGSP 102327
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS THAT PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE
AREA AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT.
2. HOT AND HUMID FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AT LEAST. SOME
PIEDMONT/UPSTATE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX BETWEEN 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE STORMS THAT PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE
AREA AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP TO OUR SOUTH ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, CONDITIONS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS OUR
AREA, BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, SOME DEGREE OF DRYING ALOFT AND
SUBTLE OVERTURNING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN A VERY FLAT
AND SPARSE CUMULUS FIELD. WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP, BUT THIS AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. HAVING
SAID THAT, STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF TRAINING
CELLS LEADING TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING STRONG-TO-SEVERE MICROBURSTS.
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE AXIS OF A TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST OFF THE EAST COAST, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WELL-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION BY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, FREQUENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WED, INTERACTING
WITH A VERY UNSTABLE UPSTREAM AIR MASS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE A VERITABLE WAVE TRAIN OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES. THE REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF THESE COULD AT LEAST BRUSH
OUR CWA THROUGH MID-WEEK. DAMAGING WIND GUST PROBABILITIES COULD BE
ENHANCED WITH ANY OF THESE REMNANTS IF THEY HAPPEN TO ALIGN WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE WILL BE QUITE LOW BEYOND THE 6-12 HOUR PERIOD AS
LONG AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS.
BY FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ANTICYCLONE...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY OR DEEP SOUTH
WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN...POSSIBLY PUSHING THE WESTERLIES/NW
FLOW ALOFT AND THEREFORE THE MCS TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND MUGGY TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AT LEAST. SOME
PIEDMONT/UPSTATE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX BETWEEN 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WHILE PERSISTENT, MOSTLY WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HOT CONDITIONS,
WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE MUGGY, DRIER PROFILES ALOFT/LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE BETTER
AFTERNOON MIXING...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROPPING INTO
THE 60S MOST DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE COMPLICATING FACTOR
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND/OR OUTFLOW AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHAVING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF
HEATING POTENTIAL. THAT'S ALL TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ANYWHERE IN THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS LOW. NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF 100+
H.I. THROUGH MID-WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE PIEDMONT. BY THE WEEKEND, A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH/TN VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
IS INHERENTLY LOW AT THAT TIME FRAME, THE FORECAST PATTERN WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z AT KGSP.
HEAVY RAINFALL AT KHKY INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR IFR BR AND LOW
STRATUS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT, SO TEMPO FOR FOR 2SM VSBY. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND TURNING MORE W TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
TSRA SO PROB30 AT KAVL/KHKY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BKN/SCT CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK: A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JDL
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