847
FXUS62 KGSP 090507
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNFICANT CHANGES.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY,
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY,
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THRU
THE TROUGH, BUT EACH ONE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
AS WESTERLY FLOW SHUNTS MOST OF THE GULF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THRU THE WEEKEND, WITH MONDAY
NOW LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. EVEN THEN, QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, WITH <30%
OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTN, BUT ANY SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW,
AS BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, AND A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. TEMPS MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FROST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RIDES THRU THE UPPER TROUGH AND BRINGS A COMPACT CLIPPER SYSTEM
THRU THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE NC MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UPPER
FLOW FINALLY STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. TEMPS HOVER NEAR NORMAL MIDWEEK, THEN WARM
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR STRATUS FROM KAND THROUGH KGMU/KGSP AND INTO KCLT. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 6-10KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. MOST TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDS
RELAX AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ON TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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