519
FXUS62 KGSP 241025
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
625 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE UPCOMING 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN HUMIDITY INCREASES ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN HUMIDITY INCREASES ALONG WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER PATTERN CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER
NEW MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN UNDER THE NWLY FLOW BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST,
ALLOWING FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO FLATTEN OUT TUESDAY. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY, WITH
DEWPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER SUNNY OR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. NO MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL,
GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPTS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND BACK
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW. A WARM FRONT WILL
ACTIVATE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND START LIFTING NORTHWARD, PUSHING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER CONVECTION, AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEWPTS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH AT LEAST
1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SO EXPECT A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING, ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHT, IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT.
THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES ITS HIGHEST AMPLITUDE ON THURSDAY, WITH
ITS AXIS STILL JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONTINUED MOIST SWLY FLOW AND AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE PEAK ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR, AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY DESTABILIZATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THE NBM STILL HAS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FROM THERE, THE
PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AGAIN, BUT LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS IS SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU
THE WEEKEND. SO, EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL POPS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THURSDAY, WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE, HOLDING TEMPS DOWN, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD HOTTER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT NOW LOOKS TO AVOID KAVL. SOME CIRRUS LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH PERIODS OF AREAS OF HIGH-BASED CU. LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT SITES, AND RATHER VRB, FAVORING A N/NW DIRECTION FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD, BUT TOGGLING TO W THIS AFTN IN THE UPSTATE AND AT
KHKY. N WINDS PICK UP WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KAVL LATE
AFTN. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KAVL TONIGHT,
SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAF.
OUTLOOK: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CONVECTION UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH
AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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