978
FXUS62 KGSP 062335
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WHILE A NOTABLY STRONGER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FARTHER SOUTH, A WEAK CLOSED UPPER
LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, RESIDUAL DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND A
LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TRADITIONAL DIURNAL SUMMER PULSE CONVECTION. HEADING
INTO TOMORROW, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE AS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL IN TURN FOSTER MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
INTO MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GEORGIA. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
STILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
THE PATTERN FINALLY RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA
WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FINALLY RECOVERING. THIS WILL ALSO BE
WORKING IN CONCERT WITH SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS WITH ANY
SUMMER STORMS, ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORM, BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE LOW TO POTENTIALLY MID 90S AS HEIGHTS
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WE MAY SEE OUR
FIRST NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
SCT CUMULUS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE NC MTNS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY MTN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE USUAL
AREAS, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND COULD BE VRB AND/OR CALM AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SW TOMORROW AFTN
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THRU NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/TW
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