537  
FXUS62 KGSP 190540  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
140 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
INTO MID WEEK, THEN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER  
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 1000 PM: THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK. COPIOUS CIRRUS CONTINUES  
TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON  
THE THIN, NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. MEANWHILE, DRY HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A  
PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT MIXING ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING. DESPITE THIS, STILL SEEING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
OVERNIGHT, WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS AS WELL AS  
THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH COOLING NE FLOW EXPECTED TO  
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S READINGS, OR  
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 235 PM EDT MONDAY: THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFING OVER THE NE CONUS AND WEAK  
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS, THE UPPER  
TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE THE TROF AXIS  
OVER THE CWFA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SFC,  
BROAD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NE AS THE  
PERIOD BEGINS. BY LATE WED/EARLY THURS, THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED  
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA  
FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME SORT OF MESO-LOW TRIES TO  
SPIN UP JUST OFF THE SE COAST, HOWEVER IT'S UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE  
IT WILL BE CENTERED AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BECOME. THE COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THRU THE CWFA ON THURS WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE. THERE  
IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT, BUT NOT THAT MUCH. IN  
ITS WAKE, VERY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE  
REGION. WED SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS  
OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. ANY PRECIP  
THAT DOES MATERIALIZE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH  
OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS TO GET SOME SNOW FLURRIES EARLY THURS,  
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW  
NORMAL AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY: THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON  
FRIDAY WITH DEEP UPPER TROFING CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST AND  
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST. THE LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT  
THE TROF WILL GET REINFORCED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN  
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. AS IT DOES, HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AS THE  
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER EAST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA.  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AS  
THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC, VERY BROAD AND DRY HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN  
PLACE THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF  
THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AS LIGHT SLY LOW-LVL  
FLOW RETURNS TO THE FCST AREA. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX, NO MAJOR  
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST WITH DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE  
WEEKEND AND POPS RAMPING UP ON MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS  
TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND  
WARM THRU THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  
THRU THE PERIOD, KEEPING ALL SITES VFR AND TURNING WINDS AROUND OUT  
OF THE NE. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS RESULTS IN SHORT TAFS. CANNOT  
RULE OUT A FEW LOW-END GUSTS IN THE 14-17Z TIME FRAME, MAINLY ACROSS  
THE UPSTATE, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE THRU  
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE LAST OF THE HIGH-BASED CU DISSIPATES EARLY THIS  
EVENING, THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE THIN CIRRUS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD  
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND A DEVELOPING LOW AT THE COAST.  
 
CONFIDENCE TABLE...  
 
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z  
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
 
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING  
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY  
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS  
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
TUESDAY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND RH TO BE NOT AS  
LOW AS TODAY. BUT IF TEMPS END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND  
DEWPTS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, ANOTHER  
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA MAY BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DEO  
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL  
SHORT TERM...JPT  
LONG TERM...JPT  
AVIATION...MUNROE  
FIRE WEATHER...ARK  
 
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