298
FXUS62 KGSP 161802
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COOLING OFF AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY: NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO
BREAKDOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPS RAIN CHANCES AWAY AS WELL. LIGHT
WINDS WITH VERY LOW-END GUSTS OF 5-10MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME MIXING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE N/NE, KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A TICK BELOW
YESTERDAY. CLEAR SKIES COULD EDGE THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST,
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE. TEMPS REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S TODAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S,
COLDER IN THE NC PIEDMONT AS THE MAJORITY OF DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 142 PM EDT THURSDAY: UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH RIDING UNDERNEATH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATER ON SATURDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF CROSSING
THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNSET SATURDAY. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST TRIES TO GET GOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE
ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS AND STUBBORN RIDGE WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR A
LOT OF MOISTURE TO BECOME AVAILABLE. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
NC/TN BORDER SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF RESPONSE
SEEMS TO BE LOCATED. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION IT TAKES ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND IN TURN,
LIFTS THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, THE LACKLUSTER OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEPARTING
UPPER JET WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH ANY OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BANDS CAN
REMAIN ATTACHED, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BANDS SHIFT EAST OFF THE
BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE KINEMATICS ACTUALLY DON'T LOOK
TOO BAD AS 60-70 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND A FEW OF
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TRY TO NOSE IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
SBCAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA. ALSO, THE LREF GUIDANCE
HAS INCREASED ITS PROBABILITIES TO 30-50% CHANCE FOR >250 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, WITH THE HOT SPOTS BEING THE SMOKIES EARLIER IN THE DAY
AND THEN ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF I-85 DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER,
LATEST GUIDANCE BARELY HAVE MUCH AT ALL IN REGARDS TO OBVIOUS QPF
RESPONSE TO OVERLAP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT. IN THIS
CASE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY TYPE OF SEVERE THREAT, BUT
STILL HAVE TO CALL IT A NONZERO THREAT UNTIL WE GET BETTER HI-RES
GUIDANCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A FULL FROPA ACROSS THE
CWFA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER COOLER NIGHT FRIDAY AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN STORE AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH THICKNESSES IN PLACE FROM THE RIDGE
AND SOME FORM OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH LOWS 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHILE DECENT WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PIEDMONT ZONES. DECENT LOW-LEVEL
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RUN 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 158 PM EDT THURSDAY: NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE CWFA DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BETTER FORCING RESIDING TO THE NORTH
AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY,
BUT LOOKING MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE. DRY AIRMASS STICKS AROUND THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKC SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SCT/FEW250
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL MOUNTAINS
VALLEY FOG WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL BEFORE
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL SO WILL KEEP A
TEMPO GOING FOR 3/4SM VSBY FOR KAVL. WINDS START TO DECREASE INTO
THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NE BEFORE BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...CP
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