283
FXUS62 KGSP 141804
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE ARE ONLY ONE DAY
OUT, SO START PREPARING NOW. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU WOULD SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IF A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
3. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
4. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
5. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT FALLING
BELOW FREEZING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AS AN INTENSE
PACIFIC JET DIVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES CARVES OUT A VIGOROUS TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO TONIGHT WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST AS PRESSURES FALL BELOW 990MB. RESULTING
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST WIND
FIELDS WITH A 50-60KT LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTH FROM
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, THIS WILL BE FURTHER
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THE 12Z SUITE OF CAMS IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT
NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS LEADING PLUME OF MOISTURE
RETURN AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AS SUCH,
VARYING CAM MEMBERS DEPICT SEVERAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
BROADER BATCH OF SHOWERS. ANY STORMS WILL RESIDE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERISTIC OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH 25-30KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 200-250 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT REVEAL STRONGLY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS OWING TO IMPRESSIVELY BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A
COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD ANY MORE ROBUST SUPERCELLS BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE ARE
ONLY ONE DAY OUT, SO START PREPARING NOW. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU WOULD
SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT LIFTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A VERY DEEP
SUB 980MB SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING EAST. A WELL
ESTABLISHED LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL RESIDE WITHIN A PREFRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE LINE OF STORMS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. A 50KT LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXTREME WIND FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT MORE THAN ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WON'T BE AS EYE POPPING OVERNIGHT, AT LEAST
300-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED WITH VALUES
INCREASING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG EAST OF I-26 THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF A
SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF INTENSE FORCING AND
DYNAMICS. IN THESE CASES, STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM SUCH A
POWERFUL TROUGH CAN OFFSET POOR THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY NORTHEAST BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR LINE BREAKS.
NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS. MAKE SURE
YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER
RADIO, WIRELESS EMERGENCY ALERTS (WEA), SOCIAL MEDIA, OR LOCAL TV
AND RADIO. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME MAKE PLANS
AHEAD OF TIME TO STAY WITH FRIENDS OR FAMILY WHO LIVE IN A STURDY
BUILDING AS MOBILE/MANUFACTURED HOMES ARE NOT SAFE WHEN IT COMES TO
TORNADOES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WHILE INITIALLY IMPACTING MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS, THE SNOW
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
SO ONLY MINOR IMPACTS SUCH AS SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW 45 MPH SO AN ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED IN THESE LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 5: A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT FALLING
BELOW FREEZING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY LOWS IN THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 20S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH NIGHTS. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE LESS COLD, BUT STILL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY STARTED, THE RECENT
PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED SOME VEGETATION TO
START BLOOMING. SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT HAVE ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING
WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THESE COLD TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20S PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS LINGER OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE MUCH
WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING
COMMON BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS
A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT. THIS WILL ALSO
IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS, BUT GENERALLY AFTER THE CURRENT 18Z FORECAST
END TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 6-10KTS OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
A FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOW
STRATUS AHEAD OF THE LINE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THEREAFTER, ALBEIT
WITH CONTINUED WIND GUSTS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SCW/TW
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