971
FXUS62 KGSP 260026
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
826 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS.
2. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS.
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THANKS TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE FROM AN 0.25-1"
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ~0.50-1.5" ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5-2" ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS
TRACK/TRAIN. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3+"
APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ESCARPMENT PER THE 12Z
HRRR/NAMNEST. THE 12Z REFS SHOWS A 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF RAINFALL
GREATER THAN 2.5" ALONG THE NORTHERN ESCARPMENT. ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW, THERE IS STILL A LOW-END CONCERN FOR
HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR IF
THESE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TO MATERIALIZE DUE TO
TRAINING/SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. WENT WITH WPC FOR QPF THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THIS MATCHED UP BETTER WITH HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS COMPARED TO
THE NBM. WITH THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED, OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THIS PRODUCT IS RESERVED FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD EVENTS.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING IN PLACE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL END UP
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT ENDING UP 7-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT DRY WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WORKS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST TO PULL IN MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF DRYING
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE
HIGH EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AROUND. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, LINGERING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS BEING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD END UP NEAR NORMAL TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR DAMMING
LOOKS TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO HIGHS SHOULD
END UP ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WEDGE, AS WELL AS HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS UP BEING, HIGHS MAY TREND
EVEN COOLER.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MULTIPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. TS COVERAGE IS SUCH THAT TEMPOS FOR SHRA ARE MOSTLY
FAVORED THIS EVENING, WITH TSRA CARRIED AT KHKY AND KAND, WHICH ARE
UNDER THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT OF STORMS. PERIODS OF RESTRICTED
(MOSTLY MVFR) VISBY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHRA, WITH AS LOW AS
1-2SM POSSIBLE IN TS AND HEAVIER SHRA. CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOCATION/TIME.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. REDUCED VISBY IN BR IS ALSO ANTICIPATED,
AND COULD REDUCE TO IFR IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE TUE MORNING, THEN
TO VFR AT MOST SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA WARRANTED
AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY (POSSIBLY
PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS) AND LOWERED VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS FORECAST EACH NIGHT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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