131
FXUS62 KGSP 042327
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. UPDATED THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A VERY HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY
TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER HEAT DURING THE NEW WEEK. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY, BUT A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS,
AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A VERY HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WILL STEADILY GIVE
WAY TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER HEAT DURING THE NEW WEEK. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY, BUT A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS,
AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE DROPPING AS TEMPS COOL THIS EVENING. WILL
ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
CONVECTION IS ON THE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE, BUT THE CHANCE IS
DIMINISHING AS WELL.
A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY ON SUNDAY,
WITH DEEP, ALBEIT WEAK SW FLOW RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS COULD AGAIN REACH THE CENTURY
MARK...BUT TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE LESS OF
A TENDENCY TO MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD
AGAIN BE QUITE ROBUST, ALTHOUGH MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, AND GENERALLY 30-50% CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TYPICAL
ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY/POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. WE STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AT
LEAST FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS IN EARNEST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MODEST AT BEST,
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES, IT WAS
DECIDED TO WITHHOLD HEAT PRODUCTS FOR SUNDAY.
THE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH THE NEW WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEIGHT FALLS
FORECAST. THIS WILL STEADILY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE HEIGHT FALL SURGES...POSSIBLY
ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. EITHER WAY, THERMAL PROFILES AND THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT SOLID SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS COVERAGE
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MON AND TUE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MAY
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY WED IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT,
BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DIURNAL CONVECTION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, POPS FOR WED-FRI
DO DECREASE A BIT FROM THEIR MON/TUE PEAK. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...TO AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MONDAY...TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION IS ON THE
WANE AND SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS
W THROUGH N OF KAVL. MOISTURE RAMPS UP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH IMPROVED CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH PROB30S ENTERING THE PICTURE AT KAVL BY 16Z, KHKY
BY 18Z, KGSP/KGMU BY 19Z, AND AT KCLT/KAND BY 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR KAVL WHERE LIGHT NW
WIND WILL BE SEEN.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
BUT ALSO IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 96 1948 71 1976 70 2024 46 1967
2018 1933
KCLT 101 2024 66 1892 78 2024 57 1967
KGSP 101 2024 70 1976 78 2016 58 1967
1933
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
JDL/RWH
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