966
FXUS62 KGSP 062358
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
2. FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTDOOR
BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT TO HELP
REINFORCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL STRUGGLE
TO FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT DESPITE TEMPERATURES REACHING CLOSE TO
FROSTY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR-NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. FROST POTENTIAL REMAINS PATCHY TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO TONIGHT, WITH LIKELY THE SAME SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVING THE
BEST FROST POTENTIAL. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SLIP OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE, PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL FROST
ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVEN'T STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM AND WON'T UNTIL APRIL 21ST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUTDOOR BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS.
MOST PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SAW AT
LEAST 0.25 INCH OF RAIN IN THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD, WITH THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS, UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY, AND A FEW SWATHS
SOUTHEAST OF I-85 HAVING SUBSTANTIALLY MORE. HOWEVER, WHATEVER
MITIGATING EFFECT THAT HAD ON FUEL MOISTURE READINGS IS LIKELY
TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MODEST DIURNAL MIXING WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION TUESDAY DEEPER MIXING SHOULD OCCUR
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM RH OF 25-30 PERCENT IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THE DRY PATTERN IS REINFORCED AS A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
TURN N TO NE, BECOMING BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. AS THESE WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
LOW LEVELS, LOW MINIMUM RH REMAINS LIKELY WED AFTERNOON EVEN
AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER, AND MIXING DEPTH IS LIMITED BY A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BRIEF OVERLAP OF CRITICAL RH WITH WINDS IS
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WED, AND MAY WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY AND THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE, WHICH STILL LOOKS
TO RESULT IN SLIGHT ATLANTIC MOISTURE FETCH, SO LOW RH IS NOT AS
LIKELY THAT DAY. HOWEVER, WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP US CLOSE
TO THAT THRESHOLD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH PRECIP STILL LOOKING QUITE
UNLIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. THUS FUEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SCT FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW MORNING. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VRB TO CALM TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK AND SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N/
NNE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NELY BY TOMORROW EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN
N TO NW THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TONIGHT AND
PICKING BACK UP LATER TOMORROW MORNING. KAVL COULD SEE SOME IN-
TERMITTENT LOW-END GUSTS TOMORROW, BUT ANY GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
SPORADIC AT BEST.
OUTLOOK: REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND LINGERS THRU THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST THURS.
ELY LOW-LVL FLOW MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE AREA LATE
THURS INTO FRI.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JCW/JPT
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