468
FXUS62 KGSP 021016
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING
UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL.
3. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC REGIME REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AS A PROMINENT
BERMUDA HIGH IS PARKED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCER FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. FARTHER WEST, AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH RATHER HEIGHT HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S EACH DAY. OTHERWISE, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITHIN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. COVERAGE MAY BE
FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INCREASES THE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
BY SATURDAY, GUIDANCE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SLOW THE
FROPA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE CWA
REMAINS IN AN OPEN WARM SECTOR AS THE PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS LOOKS TO BRING A DECENT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN CHANCES FOR
RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1" (30-40%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS
USUAL, THE LINE OF STORMS APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
TERRAIN, DECREASING RAIN AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. LOOKING AT LONG RANGE MODELED SOUNDINGS, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO HAVE A PRE-FRONTAL STORM BE STRONG,
POSSIBLY SEVERE. BUT THE LINE COMING IN OVERNIGHT DOESN'T APPEAR TO
HAVE THE GUMPTION NEEDED FOR TOO MUCH CONCERN, OUTSIDE OF STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FOR NOW, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME DEPICTS OVERNIGHT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
DESPITE CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SOURCE FOR THESE FREEZING TEMPS COMING
FROM A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
EASTWARD. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL NE AS A DRY CAD
SETS UP. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS ARE 20-30%, SHOULD THIS PATTERN CONTINUE TO TREND IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SPOTTY MVFR STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. HEATING THROUGH
TODAY, ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING
ALONG WITH LOW-END GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A PROB30
HAS BEEN CARRIED AT KAVL. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS EVENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPO GROUPS ADDED AT ALL TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/TW
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