651
FXUS62 KGSP 080029
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
829 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY, POSING A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
BETWEEN 99-103 BEGINNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, POSING A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
MICROBURSTS.
CONVECTION IS STEADILY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS, WHILE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS HAS SO FAR BEEN VERY
SPOTTY. CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
TREND OF CONVECTION BEING HEAVILY MOUNTAIN-CENTRIC WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SENSE, AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS, UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTERN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE IS STEADILY BUILDING WESTWARD, AND THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PIEDMONT IS A BIT DRIER THAN ON THURSDAY. STILL,
SBCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND LOW LFCS WARRANTS A TOKEN 20-30% CHANCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. BUOYANCY IS ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A
FEW PULSE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG-TO-SEVERE MICROBURSTS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE BIT MORE BRISK (15-20 KTS) COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS,
BUT SMALL SCALE AREAS OF CELL TRAINING AND/OR ANCHORING OF STORMS
ON TERRAIN FEATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE, POSING A CONTINUED THREAT OF
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.
THERE'S VERY LITTLE TO HANG ONE'S HAT ON IN TERMS OF NOTABLE CHANGES
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ATMOSPHERIC REGIME ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
MODERATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED, AND SW STEERING
CURRENTS KEEPING THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN BEING CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVING SAID THAT,
GUIDANCE FEATURES A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SATURDAY, SO POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE
STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
BETWEEN 99-103 BEGINNING MONDAY.
THE ATTEMPT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOMEWHAT THWARTED BY PERIODIC HEIGHT
FALLS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE RESULT OF
THIS BATTLE WILL BE A GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS,
DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY...MORE OR LESS REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX NEARING...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT, THE FORECAST PATTERN
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A PROTRACTED EXCESSIVE HEAT EVENT, AND ANY
OCCURRENCE OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. TYPICAL MID-SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY...GENERALLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WE'VE STILL GOT A FEW PATCHY SHOWERS AND
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT CURRENTLY HAS A MENTION OF ANY SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS KHKY, WHERE I HAVE VCSH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE MTN VALLEYS. AS SUCH, I HAVE PRE-
VAILING IFR VISBY AT KAVL BEGINNING AROUND 10Z WITH A TEMPO FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z. I ALSO HAVE MVFR VISBY AT
KHKY FROM 10 TO 13Z. THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE HIT AND
MISS WRT RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER SITES, SO I LIMIT THEM TO
SCT005 THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES
TOMORROW, MOST SITES HAVE A PROB30 FOR TSRA BEGINNING BETWEEN
18 AND 20Z. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NC MTNS AGAIN TOMORROW, SO I HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KAVL FROM
18 TO 22Z, WITH VCTS AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE, S/SW WINDS SHOULD
GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM AT MOST SITES LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THRU THE MORNING. THEY WILL PICK BACK UP FROM THE S/SW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 4 TO 8 KTS. AT KAVL, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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