843
FXUS62 KGSP 270602
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY,
WHICH REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY.
SNOW CHANCES HAVE AGAIN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCREASING THE RISK OF
FROSTBITE. POWER OUTAGES FOLLOWING THE ICE STORM COULD INCREASE
INCIDENCE OF HYPOTHERMIA THROUGHOUT THE AREA, FOR INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT ACCESS TO HEAT.
2. EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS A PART OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
3. SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DANGEROUSLY COLD IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCREASING THE RISK OF
FROSTBITE. POWER OUTAGES FOLLOWING THE ICE STORM COULD INCREASE
INCIDENCE OF HYPOTHERMIA THROUGHOUT THE AREA, FOR INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT ACCESS TO HEAT.
THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH JUST ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THE HIGH TO PRODUCE LINGERING WIND ATOP THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS COMBINING WITH NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES
TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION. AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS), AND LOWER TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS
WILL THEN START TO REBOUND WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING, BUT
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A TAD. SO WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -20
DEG F RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 0 TO 10 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COULD
LINGER THRU LATE MORNING. THUS, THE CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNING
AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS NOON EXPIRATION LOOKS GOOD.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THAT SAID, HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN, AND WINDS ACTUALLY PICK UP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
AS A PASSING REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DESPITE
THE WIND, TEMPS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS TODAY; THUS, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING WIND CHILLS TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS WHETHER AN
IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY IS WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHEN
THE CURRENT COLD HEADLINES EXPIRE, AS WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO THE
-5 TO +5 DEGREE RANGE LATE TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A PART OF THE MOUNTAINS TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WED
THROUGH FRI. A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AND NW/UPSLOPE
FLOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. BOTH
WIND AND SNOWFALL (IF ANY) WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY. THE
WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO COULD RESULT IN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN LOCATIONS
THAT FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA, THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS MAY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THOSE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD DUE
TO ANY PRE-EXISTING POWER OUTAGES.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
CWA. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TREND COLDER BY A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
(BACK TO SINGLE DIGITS), WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. HENCE,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET EVEN OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS, AS LOW TEMPS DIP INTO THE TEENS. BASED ON TWO-DAY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES (AVL, GSP,
CLT) LOOK TO BE WELL WITHIN COLD WAVE CRITERIA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS
CONCERNS ABOUT LONGER-DURATION COLD LEADING TO GREATER IMPACTS
SUCH AS GREATER INCIDENCE OF FROZEN PIPES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A CONSENSUS
REGARDING THE PATTERN OVER THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A STRONG
AND INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS ON FRIDAY TO THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, SHARPENING THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD BEFORE THIS EVOLUTION, AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS...WITH DAILY RECORD LOW MAX AND MIN TEMPS BEING
IN JEOPARDY FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY. JUST AS NOTABLY, THE STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ONLY QUESTION BEING THE
USUAL TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION QUESTIONS THAT ONE SHOULD EXPECT
5 DAYS OUT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
CYCLONE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND CONSIDERING
HOW FAR SOUTH IT APPEARS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS GOING TO DIG...THIS
WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A RARE ALL-SNOW EVENT FOR OUR AREA, AND
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST A PART
OF THE CWA. HAVING SAID THAT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...CERTAINLY
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE CLARITY...AND WE EXPECT
A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF THE MODEL "GAME ON/GAME OFF" BACK AND
FORTH THAT IS TYPICAL OF EXTENDED PERIOD COASTAL LOWS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKC THRU THE DAY,
THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SO BASICALLY A WIND
FORECAST, WITH NW WINDS STILL GUSTY AT KAVL, BUT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AT ALL SITES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS TOGGLE TO SW AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KAVL, AND SHOULD SEE FREQUENT LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING. THEN A DRY
FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AGAIN AT KCLT AND GUSTS TO
RESUME AT KAVL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MOST OF
THE WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND TOWARD A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW,
BUT TRENDS BEAR WATCHING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1999 17 1940 54 1916 2 1986
KCLT 75 1890 24 1940 58 1890 6 1940
KGSP 73 1954 29 1940 57 1949 8 1940
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
RECORDS FOR 02-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1989 16 1908 52 1988 -2 1917
KCLT 80 1989 29 1908 61 1923 10 1917
KGSP 77 1989 28 1951 60 1923 9 1900
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
059.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
ARK/JDL
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