444
FXUS62 KGSP 080630
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHS TRENDING COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
2. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK AREA-WIDE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH LINGERS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DESPITE HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
EACH AFTERNOON KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (<105
DEGREES). BREEZY SW/W WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH. BREEZY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF FROM THE HUMID AIRMASS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL END UP AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING MAINLY W/SW'LY.
THE BERMUDA HIGH GETS NUDGED FARTHER SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIRMASS BEHIND IT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR DAMMING
LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC. CAD MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO ACTUALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL
ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH WE WON'T COMPLAIN ABOUT FOR MID-
JULY AND COULD DEFINITELY USE AFTER THE LAST WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK AREA-
WIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOME ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA DEPENDING ON HOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATE THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. PER USUAL, A FEW STRONG, SUB-SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM MICROBURSTS
THANKS TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DECENT DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER, CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO CAD DEVELOPING)
COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. THUS, CONFIDENCE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT IS LOW. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. FOG AND STRATUS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND THICKEN THROUGH DAYBREAK. KHKY COULD ALSO SEE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
COMPARED TO KAVL. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TSRA SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE NC TERMINALS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THUS, WENT WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AT KAVL, KHKY, AND KCLT. THE SC TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
MAINLY NW AT KAVL. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-12 KTS.
HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVL AND KHKY. LOW-END GUSTS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS RETURN TONIGHT WITH WIND DIRECTION TURNING MORE WSW
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK: THE NC TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES RETURN
FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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