620
FXUS62 KGSP 100507
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM AND DRY TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM AND DRY TODAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY.
A POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE ON TAP, WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY, AND EVEN THEN,
IT'S NOT TOO EXCITING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA EARLY
MONDAY, WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, THEN SPREAD EAST
THRU THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MUCAPE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDER,
BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY,
WHERE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT SOME SFC-BASED CAPE IN
THE 500- 1000 J/KG RANGE. OVERALL, ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW,
WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT,
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A
FEW LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THE PRECIP. OVERALL, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS BRIEFLY RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
THRU TUESDAY. LOWS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY NIGHT, SO
FROST IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY,
AND COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR
TWO THRU THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER
WITH THIS FEATURE, AND THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWFA HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS WELL AND WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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