689  
FXUS62 KGSP 032318  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
718 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION GIVES OUR REGION  
DRY WEATHER INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED  
WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM: ENTRENCHED WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS, FEW-SCT  
DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, LEADING TO JUST SOME  
CIRRUS DRIFTING BY TONIGHT. SEASONABLY MILD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SEEN TO START OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 03/12 UTC MODEL  
RUN CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS RICHER PWAT VALUES WELL SOUTH  
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE STILL CAN'T  
RULE OUT DIURNAL ISOLATED NC MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP SHOWERS, BUT  
ESSENTIALLY, EXPECT AN EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSED AFTERNOON  
FEATURING PIEDMONT LOWER 90S ALBEIT WITH TUMBLING SFC DEWPTS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY  
SATURDAY, THEN WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODELS HAVE  
TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THIS PROGRESSION, BRINGING A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE  
UNCERTAINTY ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL/COASTAL LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPING  
ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 12Z NAM  
AND CANADIAN DRIFT THE LOW N/NW INTO THE GA/SC COASTAL PLAIN. BUT  
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW DRIFTING NE ALONG  
THE COAST. IN ANY CASE, THE TRENDS HAVE RESULTED IN AN UPTICK  
IN POPS FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHERE 30-40%  
ARE FEATURED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE, AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS  
SUNDAY ARE LOW. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE,  
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY: THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY  
WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH SHOULD EJECT WHATEVER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OUT TO THE NE BY  
EARLY MONDAY. SO A NEAR-CLIMO DIURNAL POP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY  
AFTN-EVE. POPS THEN START TO INCREASE EACH DAY THRU MIDWEEK, AS  
THE DIGGING TROUGH ALLOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH THRU  
THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT  
FOR CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, THE NBM POPS  
ARE ABOVE CLIMO, WITH SOLID CHC AND LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHEST  
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
ABOVE NORMAL, AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPTS...HEAT INDICES MAY  
PUSH INTO THE 100-105F RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. AT  
THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME LINGERING CU AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER  
NEAR KHKY. EXPECT THE CU AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWER TO DISSIPATE  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME WISPY CIRRUS ROAMING THE SKY  
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT THAT'S ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD  
COVER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY  
DIRECTION (5-10 KTS) ON FRIDAY AT ALL SITES, WITH DIURNAL CU  
ONCE AGAIN.  
 
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED AGAIN  
ON SATURDAY WITH AT MOST, ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF  
EARLY SUMMER SUNDAY/MONDAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH  
MORNING, MAINLY IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES  
AND RIVERS.  
 
 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...DEO  
NEAR TERM...CSH  
SHORT TERM...ARK  
LONG TERM...ARK  
AVIATION...CAC  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab GA Page
Main Text Page