879
FXUS62 KGSP 242352
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POP AND QPF ADJUSTED FOR LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING, WITH A LOW END SEVERE STORM AND FLOOD THREAT. DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT AND THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, WITH A LOW END SEVERE STORM AND FLOOD
THREAT. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
ROUGHLY THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN NC, SOUTHWEST TO THE VICINITY OF THE
LAKELANDS IN SC/GA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA
BOUNDARY, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE CONVECTION IS IN A RACE AGAINST THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE,
BUT AN AREA OF 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY, SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS
INTO LATE EVENING IN THIS AREA. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY,
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS THAT
CROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WARM SECTOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH A SMALL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCATIONS OF
TRAINING/REPEATING CELLS...ESPECIALLY WHERE UNSTABLE AIR OVERLAPS
WITH LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS
(I.E., THE SC PIEDMONT.)
THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/MCV MOVES EAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREAD BACK ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT AND THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A LINGERING BUT WEAKER
WEDGE, AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING. A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS ALSO KEEPS A LOW END
FLOOD THREAT IN PLACE, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CHANCES CREEP BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, THEN DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST,
AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. TS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE UPSTATE SC
TERMINALS, AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SHRA/VCTS
ARE CARRIED THERE. TS CHANCES WILL BE LOWER TO THE NORTH AND EAST,
BUT SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD KCLT BY MID-EVENING...AND A PROB30 FOR
TSRA IS WARRANTED AT KCLT FROM 01-05Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND MOVE
EAST FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A RETURN OF LOW CIGS, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. REDUCED
VISBY IS ALSO EXPECTED...PRIMARILY MVFR (WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING.) CIGS AND VISBY
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPROVING DURING LATE MORNING, WITH MVFR
FORECAST BY AFTERNOON. VFR COULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPECTED WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WARRANTING PROB30S FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES. LINGERING,
MOSTLY LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND MURKY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION,
POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND LOWERED VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS FORECAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/RWH
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