978
FXUS62 KGSP 131846
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER.
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A STOUT UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY,
HELPING TO PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESPONSE
WRT THE FROPA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND MINIMAL CAPE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ON
TUESDAY, BROAD UPPER RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST
AND PERSISTS THRU MID-WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPORT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THAT MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SFC
HIGH GETS PUSHED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. BRIEF, WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING TRIES
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LIGHT ELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
IN ADDITION, THE EXPECTED LACK OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP-OUT NEAR, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IF BETTER CLOUD COVER LINGERS FOR LONGER, FCST TEMPERA-
TURES COULD BE TOO WARM. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AT PRESENT, THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BNDY APPEARS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OVER THE MTNS EACH DAY, SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
ROUND OF MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT, BUT IT'S UNCLEAR
WHETHER IT WILL REACH KAVL. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NWLY DIRECTION AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY WILL BE WEAK AND COULD BE MORE VRB AT TIMES. FOR
THE TIME BEING, I HAVE 5SM VISBY FROM 10 TO 13Z AT KAVL. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT MOSTLY FEW HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VRB (OR AT TIMES FAVORING A NW DIRECTION) AT MOST SITES
LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE N/NE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW-
END GUSTS THRU THE EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS AT KAVL WILL FAVOR A NW DIRECTION TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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