550
FXUS62 KGSP 111741
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
2. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER TROUGH ENGULFS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS, MOVING THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE AREA AND USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD POP
UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN IN NATURE AND NOT
POSE ANY IMPACTS TO AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED FLOODING LAST NIGHT AND
EARLIER THIS MORNING. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN TONIGHT,
RAIN CHANCES GET SNUBBED AND DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN. ALONG WITH
THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS, BUT
REMAIN BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOULD START SEEING THE
WINDS DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
A MODERATE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AMPLIFIES AND
PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AWAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A STRAY SHOWER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY OCCUR BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL. WITH THE HEIGHT
RISES FROM THE RIDGE, TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH WARMER AND RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE SEASONAL COLD FRONT THAT COULD
PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
COLDER TEMPS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO SPILL OUT OF CANADA AND
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON. DETAILS ARE TOO MURKY AT THIS TIME,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MANY TERMINALS START OUT MVFR THIS MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS OF 15-25KTS THROUGH 00Z. COLD FRONT BEINGS NW WINDS AND
GUSTIER WINDS OF 25-35KTS AT KAVL OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN NW ELSEWHERE
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON BR AT KAVL IS LOW DUE
TO THE GUSTIER WINDS. HOWEVER, IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER, BR IS POSSIBLE
10Z-13Z. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: VFR OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN
ON THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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