102
FXUS62 KGSP 051717
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE TEMPERATURES
TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
2. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
ARRIVING BY SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLING IS SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHERLY FLOW DRIVING COMPARATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST LINGERING MORNING CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED,
LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND FAST IMPROVING AS MONDAY WEARS ON.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO FEATURE QUIET, UNPERTURBED CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS THE HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR PART, WE CAN EXPECT
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE REAR OF THE HIGH BY TUESDAY
EVENING, SUCH THAT TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE A SOLID
TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY TOP OUT NEAR-NORMAL. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB TO AT LEAST NORMAL...POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, STEADY MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS
TO CLIMB, AND IN GENERAL SOME MUGGINESS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY ARRIVING BY SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES INCREASINGLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AS RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THIS LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH, UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TO OUR NORTH
BY SUNDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE, A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MAY BE SWEPT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LOW ITSELF SHOULD PROMPT LOW-LEVEL
UPGLIDE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA. AS A CONSEQUENCE, WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT A ROUND OF RAIN POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY,
WITHIN A HYBRID CAD CONFIGURATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL AS A RESULT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME ENSEMBLES FEATURING THE LOW'S TRAILING
COLD FRONT ERODING CAD AS EARLY AS MONDAY, AND OTHERS FEATURING
ANY SUCH BOUNDARY STALLING, AND LEAVING THE REMNANT WEDGE UNTOUCHED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AS EXPECTED, QUICK IMPROVEMENT HAS OCCURRED
TODAY AS DRY AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL IN PLACE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SC UPSTATE, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY 4-9KT NE WIND TO
PERSIST MOST OF THE PERIOD. A ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN AT AVL BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING,
WHILE OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN FEW/SKC. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH ANY WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR
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