643
FXUS62 KGSP 150529
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
AS WELL AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN
EACH AFTERNOON.
2. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
AS WELL AS ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE AS WELL AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN
EACH AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
REMAINS MOSTLY THE SAME. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UA
ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE CORE OF A STOUT H50 ANTICYCLONE HAS MIGRATED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER INLAND LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IMPACTS FOR THE CAROLINAS REMAIN MUCH THE SAME,
HOWEVER, WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN INFLUX OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA, AND PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY, LIKELY LONGER. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE LOW TERRAIN.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE SC UPSTATE AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA (EXCLUDING ONLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN NEAR THE
NC STATE LINE) AS WELL AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA, VALID 11 AM
THRU 8 PM SATURDAY.
THE SIGNAL IS GETTING STRONGER FOR A PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE MAJORITY OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES FEATURING A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CONCURRENT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FINALLY USHERING IN A COOLER AIR MASS.
WHETHER THIS WILL CONSTITUTE A TRUE AIR MASS CHANGE, OR BEHAVE
MORE LIKE A BRIEF CAD-LIKE SETUP, REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
AS WELL AS ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON, MORE OR LESS CONCURRENT WITH PEAK HEATING. SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL BE LACKING, BUT THE FRONT ITSELF, THOUGH WEAK,
COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON COVERAGE, LIKELY DUE TO HOW
POORLY-DEFINED ANY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE. HOWEVER,
THE PARAMETER SPACE FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORM WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
FEATURING SOME 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE, A VERY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER,
AND DCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 800-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING
WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN,
WITH NO BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF, ONLY A HOT, MUGGY, PEA-SOUP
ATMOSPHERE. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, A PATTERN CHANGE
COULD RESULT IN DECREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE DETAILS OF WHAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL ENTAIL ARE A LITTLE FUZZY AT THIS TIME RANGE, SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH COULD SEE MVFR TO
IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS BEFORE DAWN. THIS SHOULD ONLY IMPACT KAVL.
GENERALLY FEW TO SCT CIRRUS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE A CU FIELD BREAKS OUT BY AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER MOSTLY-VFR NIGHT. LIGHT W/NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WHERE THEY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ070>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ008>014-019-104>109.
MPR
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