892
FXUS62 KGSP 161804
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH HOT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY DAY FOR A WHILE AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA RETROGRADES TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE SOME RIDGING OVER
THE AREA EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE ANTICYCLONE, THIS DOESN'T
PREVENT SHORTWAVES FROM ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, AN UPPER LOW UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
WEST ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, WHICH STALLS ON
SATURDAY, THEN DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW HELPS PRODUCE A
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AFTER
SCATTERED DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THURSDAY, ALL THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT, CONVECTION COULD AGAIN BE MORE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR ALL
BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY. THEY COOL A LITTLE SATURDAY BUT
BACK TO AROUND 90 FOR SUNDAY.
MORE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA IN THE DEVELOPING MORE ZONAL FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE HELP PUSH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING-LIKE HIGH SETTING
UP INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND PRECIP CHANCES
IN PLACE. AFTER ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 ON MONDAY, GOOD
COOLING TAKES PLACE WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR TUESDAY
AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AREAS OF VFR STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL. THE FOG DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING WITH
VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BEST TIMING FOR ANY IMPACT
AT KAVL IS AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND, WITH A
TREND TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE, OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL WILL SEE N WIND WITH OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS. CALM
WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND PICKS UP FROM THE N AT KAVL ON
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK: INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
RWH
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