855
FXUS62 KGSP 060034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED STARTING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING INVOF NORTHERN GA IS FINALLY
STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED/MERGED WITH A DIGGING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH TO KEEP A DEEP-LAYERED
SWLY FLOW AND ELEVATED PWATS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOW. HOWEVER, EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THIS
AFTN THRU SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK-HEATING/DIURNAL
CYCLE. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL UNDER PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LARGE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN BECOMES FLATTENED
BY UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MORE
OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY
AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK. DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR TYPICAL EARLY-MID AUGUST LEVELS,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT EACH DAY. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
EACH AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PEAK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH, I HAVE PREVAILING VCSH WITH EITHER A PROB30
OR TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWER STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DE-
VELOPMENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES ON WIDESPREAD LOW-MVFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH
AREAS OF FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND UPSTATE. THE LOWER STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/SCT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING. SIMILAR (IF NOT GREATER) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING. AS SUCH,
I HAVE VCSH WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SLY DIREC-
TION THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MOST SITES WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM TO-
NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP AGAIN LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SCT TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND
ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS
DAY/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT
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