045
FXUS62 KGSP 211231
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
831 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS UPGRADED
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-26 TO A SLIGHT RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY TODAY BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN THE REST OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY TODAY BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN THE REST OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARD.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP US MOSTLY DRY. MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST CAM OUTPUT. THEY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THEM ARE JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT OUTPUT, OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE W/NW
ON MONDAY, AND MOVE THRU OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PER THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. THUS, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. SPC HAS UPGRADED AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-26 TO A SLIGHT RISK, WITH AREAS WEST OF I-
26 STILL IN A MARGINAL RISK. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE MAIN LINE HAS SLOWED
DOWN A BIT PER THE 06Z GUIDANCE, WITH ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS UNTIL ~6-8 PM. ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT PUSHES OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY SW WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THRU
THURSDAY, AND VALUES JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL SITES THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CIRRUS,
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THIS MORNING. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW
CUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
LINGERING FOG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BY 13-14Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
PICK UP FROM THE S/SW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS. KCLT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW-END GUSTS TOWARDS THE END OF
THEIR TAF PERIOD LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT
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