680
FXUS62 KGSP 112344
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT FRONT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST SUNDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: DIMINISHING WINDS AND COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA AS
MIXING IS WEAKENING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING IN
RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SETTLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH OF
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES HAS
DISSIPATED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES HAS BECOME VERY SHALLOW.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH WILL FULLY SET UP SHOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HELPS VEER WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE NEAR-NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH DEWPTS LIKELY MIXING OUT LOWER THAN THE NBM
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W/SW, BUT THERE COULD BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES, WHICH DIDN'T GET MUCH RAIN RECENTLY,
AS RH VALUES APPROACH 25%. TEMPS WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA,
WHILE SW WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTN. POPS RAMP UP
INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ALONG THE TN BORDER BY THE END OF THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD START OUT AS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, WITH TEMPS STILL A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT MAY BRING SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY NEAR THE TN BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
DYNAMIC/STRONGLY-FORCED TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND EVEN CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. THIS FORCING WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH, AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY A ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS
THAT PUSHES INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. DRY WESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT POPS. BUT
850 MB TEMPS FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE RAMPS
UP. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMS ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. MOST
OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING. A
SFC LOW WILL LIKELY FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW, SOMEWHERE
INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY. BUT PER USUAL, TEMPS WILL START OUT A LITTLE TOO WARM
FOR SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND IT WILL BE RACE BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR. BUT IF MOISTURE CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH DURING
THE DAY, WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AND EVEN IF SOMEHOW THE COLD AIR
AND MOISTURE OVERLAP, SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ARCTIC AIR RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
USHERING IN GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BEHIND
AN ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BUT WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO THE
-5 TO -10 DEG F RANGE ABOVE 3500 FT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES REINFORCE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON A POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK STORM, WITH MAINLY A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT
AND SOME SHOWERS BREAKING CONTAINMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN HAVE COME IN
DRIER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST NBM HAS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW-END
CHC RAMPING UP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN
CONTINUED VFR/GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NNW WINDS (GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS) WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT
KAVL, WITH NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING ON, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT MOST SITES, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NW
WINDS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AT KAVL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SOME WINTRY PRECIP COULD AFFECT KAVL AND PERHAPS
KHKY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CAC/JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
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