858  
FXUS62 KGSP 310213  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
1013 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST  
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA  
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL  
NEXT WEEK AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1011 PM EDT FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LINGERING GUSTS, BUT MOSTLY A STEADY 5-10KT  
NW WIND. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER  
THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS  
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 50S.  
 
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A PIECE OF ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF  
ENHANCED WINDS WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT DIVES  
INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.  
THIS WILL SEND A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM  
THE NORTH WITH A BOUNDARY LAID OUT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO  
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A RETURN OF UPPER FORCING IN CONCERT WITH A PLUME  
OF MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP INSTIGATE A BAND  
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW  
REGIME. CAMS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND  
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE  
RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY  
WINDS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES, BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER VORTEX WILL WOBBLE EAST ACROSS  
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS REACHING  
THE EAST COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE  
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND HELP SHARPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
REGION SUNDAY. A SFC FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW  
TO SE, AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MODELS AGREE ON AROUND  
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWFA WITH  
ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED  
STORMS, WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED  
IN THE AFTN TO EARLY EVENING. A SHOTGUN CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA  
ON THE NBM LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR  
THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE, LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN  
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT  
THRU MONDAY, AS A MILD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE  
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL, VERY PLEASANT WEATHER  
EXPECTED WITH SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND MODEST HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY: MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON UPPER RIDGE  
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING TO THE EAST COAST THRU  
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS AN EXCEPTION, CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW  
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TUESDAY, THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. EITHER  
WAY, DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH  
TEMPS ON A WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST THURSDAY, AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN  
SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME  
ESTABLISHED OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT MAY BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF CHC POPS  
IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTN. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THRU  
THURSDAY, SO THE NBM POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO LAY OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WX FOR THE CWFA  
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY A QUIET TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS.  
CONVECTION HAS SLID EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY FEW/SKC OVERNIGHT  
WITH ONLY ISOLATED FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND COVERAGE  
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. A LIGHT BUT  
STEADY W WIND SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL RETURN SATURDAY  
MORNING, AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SPUR WIDELY SCATTERED  
CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE ONLY  
SUPPORTED A PROB30 AT KHKY, WITH NO MENTION ELSEWHERE.  
 
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY. DRY  
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ARK  
NEAR TERM...MPR/TW  
SHORT TERM...ARK  
LONG TERM...ARK  
AVIATION...MPR  
 
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