839
FXUS62 KGSP 312318
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND RETURN FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY: LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH, LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES REGIONWIDE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT, HELPING TO RELAX THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PREVAIL TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN FULLY
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE VARY DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, SO LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING (OR VERY CLOSE TO) TEMPERATURES
IN SHELTERED AREAS, MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND RURAL AREAS. WITH THE
INHERITED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEG F BELOW THE CONSENSUS, FEEL LIKE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY NOTABLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE
CURRENT WARNING AREA IS OF A LOW PROBABILITY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START OUT THE
DAY. AN ENCROACHING CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO CREATE A MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE FEATURE TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NEAR THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY. IN THIS CASE, THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
BRING IN AN INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BY LATER IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS DRY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
RUN 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY: EVEN AT THIS LATE DATE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
VARY REGARDING THE UPPER LOW FOR THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OF COURSE,
THIS SHOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH UPPER
LOWS IN GENERAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS IT MOVING
BY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THAT SAID, WHILE THE GFS HAS GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIP, IT KEEPS AMOUNTS LIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND I-77 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS WITH CHANCE POP
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT QPF. TEMPS COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY COOL A FEW
DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY: DRY AND QUITE WEATHER RETURN TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AS WELL BEFORE A
DRY COLD FRONT PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS RISE
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAIN NEAR STEADY FOR ALL BUT
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY WHERE THEY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THEN
FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT, REMAIN NEARLY STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT, RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LINGERING VFR LVL STRATOCU IN THE NC MTNS AND
IN THE NORTHERN FA WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE LEADING TO SKC CONDITIONS
REGIONWIDE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ALL DAY ON
SATURDAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM
THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WHICH COULD BRING IN ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
CAN'T RULE OUT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-
062>065-501>509.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ101>103.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ008>014-
019-104>109.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC/CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC/CSH
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