626
FXUS62 KGSP 071159
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE OVER TENNESSEE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2. WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCREASES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT, WITH COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE OVER TENNESSEE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OUR RECENT LATE-SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL RELENT SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, TO THE EXTENT THAT THE UPPER ANTICYLONE/SFC HIGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST, BUT IN THE MEANTIME A
S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION. THE BALANCE OF SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NOT AS EVENTFUL AS FRIDAY. LINGERING CLOUDINESS
IN THE MORNING SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM WARMING UP QUITE SO FAST,
THUS THE RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT AS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. WE SHOULD
ALSO GET A LATER START TOWARD CONVECTIVE INITIATION, SO PRECIP
CHANCES ARE PUSHED OUT MORE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OVER TN. THE CAMS
SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS THAT WOULD ORGANIZE OVER MIDDLE TN IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PLOW EASTWARD TOWARD THE MTNS IN THE EVENING
BEFORE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE LOOKS RATHER MODEST
WITH MUCAPE NO BETTER THAN MAYBE 1000-1500 J/KG AND SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KT. THIS, BEING A SOMEWHAT LIMITING FACTOR, IS WHAT
IS PROBABLY KEEPING THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SET AT A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THE AREA BASICALLY N AND W OF I-85 THRU DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL,
THE OUTPUT OF THE 00Z HRRR AND NAMNEST LOOK INTERESTING ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
THE STORMS AS THEY REACH THE MTNS SATURDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE UNFAVORABLE EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS TO THE FORECAST, THE PRECIP PROBS RAMP UP TO THE
LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES OVER THE MTNS SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT WILL STAY MORE IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER THE EAST. NOTE THAT IF
THE AVAILABLE 00Z CAMS ARE CORRECT, THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL BE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AND THUS
THE PRECIP PROBS SEEN IN THE MODEL BLEND AT 12Z SUNDAY WOULD BE
WAY OVERDONE. DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCREASES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT, WITH COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWING.
WITH A REGION OF DAMPENING HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NORTH OF THE
AREA...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST EARLY SUNDAY. THE LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN EARLY
IN THE DAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BLOSSOM THROUGHOUT THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/MODESTLY
DESTABILIZES. MORNING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE OF 500-1000 J/KG, BUT IMPROVED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. NEVERTHELESS, THE SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBO WILL
SUPPORT A MARGINAL-AT-MOST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY,
GENERALLY BRINGING AN END TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVING SAID THAT,
ANY AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE SUBTLE (A SLIGHT DROP IN DEWPOINTS),
WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS FLATTENING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE OVER THE BAJA. A WARM AND HUMID WARM SECTOR REGIME WILL
RETURN TO OUR AREA BY TUE, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
RETURNING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMP AND MAXIMUM LOW TEMP
RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY MON->WED.
TOWARD MID-WEEK, AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO KICK OUT THE BAJA UPPER LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MISS VALLEY BY WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY MARCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WED NIGHT INTO
THU. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WELL-FORCED FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS, AND THUS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/PERHAPS
SEVERE CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO VALUES MORE SANE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH
THU INTO FRI.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ONCE AGAIN WE LOOK TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD DECK AND/OR FOG THAT HAS MOVED OVER
OUR AREA WITH THE CONTINUING LIGHT SLY FLOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CIG RESTRICTION
BY MID-MORNING IS A DECENT BET FOR MOST TERMINALS. BY MID-AFTN,
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN ENOUGH TO LIFT CIGS TO VFR, IF
IT HASN'T ALREADY SCATTERED OUT. THE S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CON-
TINUES TO SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THUS, I HAVE PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT ALL SITES DURING THIS TIME
WINDOW WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST SITES
JUST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK: THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1974 23 1920 61 1956 15 1960
KCLT 85 1974 30 1899 63 2022 14 1899
1956
KGSP 83 1974 36 1920 62 1961 13 1901
1901 1956
RECORDS FOR 03-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 1974 23 1996 57 1921 8 1920
KCLT 84 1974 36 1989 59 1946 16 1920
KGSP 84 1974 35 1899 56 1921 14 1901
1899
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT/PM
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