034
FXUS62 KGSP 311806
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE TRENDING WARMER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, INCLUDING A
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS MONDAY.
2. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
INCLUDING A MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY.
DRIER AIR GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST AND WINDS SWING BACK TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE CREEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASES DEWPOINTS AND RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT CAMS DEPICT SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASING FOR NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS. LOOKING AT THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME, THERE LOOKS TO
BE A STRUGGLE FOR ANY INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY
AIR AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT
NOTHING SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING ANYTHING SEVERE. FOR
MONDAY, SEVERE CHANCES GO UP A TICK WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) AS
INCREASED PWATS, 25-35KTS OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE, JUST
A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. GIVEN
THE W/NW UPPER FLOW, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH
AND DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD.
BY TUESDAY, THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HEAD TOWARD THE AREA.
AHEAD OF IT, GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE DRIER AIR
ONCE AGAIN CUTS OFF THE CHANCES. OVERALL QPF RESPONSE IS RATHER LOW
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE OF TOTAL AMOUNTS
MEASURING OVER 0.5". HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHERE A STORM SETSUP,
COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SO NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO CONCERNS FOR THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, MUCH COOLER TEMPS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH STARTS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND ONWARD. HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTS
THE MAJORITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TICK UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO VALUES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SUMMERTIME. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE TURNING SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RAISES DEWPOINTS.
SO, EXPECT HUMIDITY TO SETTLE IN BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT, NOT SEEING A
SIGNAL FOR ANY HEAT INDEX CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE KEEP A CONSTANT STREAM OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SC AND SOME NC
TERMINALS. ENE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM OR
VERY LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. KCLT SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO THE SE
BEFORE BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
KGSP/KAVL BEFORE MIDNIGHT, SO COVERED IT WITH A VCSH. CIGS IN SC AND
KAVL COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. KAND MAY LINGER A COUPLE HOURS INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING. ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA AND SHRA POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KCLT. COVERED THIS WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. A
DRIER PATTERN SHOULD SET UP BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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