110
FXUS62 KGSP 271748
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
2. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES GLIDE DOWN A PERSISTENT TROUGH SITTING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THOUGH THESE SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK, IT
SHOULD PROVIDE A SMIDGE OF FORCING, ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE STORMS
TO GROW IN THIS BROAD WARM SECTOR. AMPLE MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN
PLAGUING THE AREA, TICKING UP CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPOTTY, BUT FOR
WHAT IT'S WORTH, CAMS DO HINT AT CONVECTION FIRING UP, TYPICAL
FOR THIS AREA DURING SUMMER. MAIN HAZARD TO WATCH OUT FOR IS
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED LOCATION OR TWO THAT SEES A BRIEF STINT OF FLASH
FLOODING WHEREVER HEAVY RAINS SETUP. COPY AND PASTE AS A SIMILAR
SETUP FOR FRIDAY EMERGES, BUT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CARVED OUT A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF
5) FOR MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH GETS SHOVED OFFSHORE BY THE
VILLAINOUS RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, EYEING THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE HEIGHT RISES START TO SHUNT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, HEDGING FOR A FAVORABLE DRIER-ISH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BY MIDWEEK.
AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO PROPEL THE TROUGH OFFSHORE,
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND LEADS THE WAY FOR THE RETURN OF HOT
TEMPERATURES. AS IF MONDAY WASN'T BAD ENOUGH, HOT AND HUMID TEMPS
APPEAR TO CREEP IN, TURNING A TYPICAL START OF THE WEEK INTO A
SLIGHTLY LESS SPIRITED ONE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS WIDESPREAD
90S FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND TICKING UPWARD
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG WITH
REPULSIVE TEMPS, HUMIDITY REMAINS ROOTED, ELEVATING HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 100S BY MIDWEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT DETAILS,
BUT THE TREND IS NOT OUR FRIEND AS MODELS ZOOM IN ON THESE ROASTING
TEMPS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH 02Z-03Z, SO PROB30 AT ALL
SITES. OVERNIGHT, SOME BR IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD
SCT BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS MAINLY S/SE, BECOMING CALM IN
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY COME UP FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO A PROB30 AT KCLT.
OUTLOOK: LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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