856
FXUS62 KGSP 221022
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE UPCOMING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY, THEN STEADILY RETURN TO
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 25
PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN BLOCKY AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT FORTUNATELY WE ARE IN THE FAIR WEATHER
PART OF THE BLOCK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO, GIVING US CLEAR BLUE SKY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEWPOINT WILL MIX OUT A BIT
MORE THAN YESTERDAY, SO SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPOINT SOLUTIONS FROM
THE CAMS WERE MIXED INTO THE NBM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
WESTERN UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SHOW THE MIXING POTENTIAL,
SO WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE NBM ONCE AGAIN. THAT SHOULD PUT THE MIN RH
DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HREF SHOWS
THAT PATCHES OF RH BELOW 25 PERCENT IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
LIKELY. THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IN SPITE OF YESTERDAY'S NOT MEETING WITH EXPECTATIONS. FORTUNATELY,
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY, THEN STEADILY
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME,
A SUBTLE SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH ACROSS QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT
THE SFC HIGH IN THE PERFECT SPOT FOR A DRY COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. A NEW UPPER LOW OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT,
TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO FORM LATE IN THE DAY, AND WILL STAY 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY EVEN WITH NEARLY FULL SUN. THE
COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE
MID-30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS, THUS COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME GOOD FROST
POTENTIAL, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR FROST EXTENDING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE ON MONDAY, BUT THE
REMNANT DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL. COULD THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH NEXT THURSDAY? THE GFS LOOKS OVER-EXCITED WITH
A COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS LATE IN THE DAY,
SO IT WAS TREATED WITH BENIGN NEGLECT FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS
SHOULD HANG AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND FOG AROUND
SOME OF THE LARGER LAKES. COULD SEE SOME FOG AFFECT KHKY, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS. WILL
UPDATE IF FOG DOES END UP WAFTING OVER KHKY AFTER THE AFD HAS
BEEN SENT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU OF THE
PERIOD. KAVL WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS THIS AFTN, AND
COULD HAVE A FEW LOW-END GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/PM
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