136
FXUS62 KGSP 261817
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
217 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED 3-6 DEGREES COOLER FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
POPS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. BELOW NORMAL LOWS STICK AROUND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. BELOW NORMAL LOWS
STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS LATER IN THE WEEK.
A LARGE COASTAL LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO WOBBLE WESTWARD INTO NJ ON
SUNDAY, THEN STALL AND MEANDER AROUND THE NYC AREA INTO TUESDAY,
BEFORE FINALLY EXITING EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
TREND HAS RESULTED IN A MORE PERSISTENT DRY, NWLY FLOW ATOP THE
FORECAST AREA THRU TUESDAY. THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
HAS DROPPED MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEG ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE CWFA SUNDAY
THRU TUESDAY, WHILE LOWS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MIXING OF DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW, DEWPTS WERE LOWERED
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE, AS NBM HAS A KNOWN HIGH-BIAS. SO RH VALUES
MAY DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EACH AFTN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
AND POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.
LATER IN THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH ONSET OF MENTIONABLE POPS, AND THE NBM HAS
TRENDED LOWER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING
LIKE OUR NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCES, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS, AND ALLOWS SWLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT, WHICH MEANS NOT LIKELY TO
AFFECT KAVL SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS FAVORING A N TO NW DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD. KAVL WILL HAVE GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS
AFTN, AND LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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