486
FXUS62 KGSP 261814
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER SHOULD END BY EVENING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT WITH PRECIPITATION
HAVING ENDED AND SLEET/ICE IMPACTS DECREASING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FOR TONIGHT, EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCREASING THE RISK OF FROSTBITE. POWER OUTAGES
FOLLOWING THE ICE STORM COULD INCREASE INCIDENCE OF HYPOTHERMIA
THROUGHOUT THE AREA, FOR INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ACCESS TO HEAT.
2. EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS MAY RETURN TO SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
3. CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL,
IT COULD EASILY REINTRODUCE OR WORSEN TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOR TONIGHT, EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, INCREASING THE RISK OF
FROSTBITE. POWER OUTAGES FOLLOWING THE ICE STORM COULD INCREASE
INCIDENCE OF HYPOTHERMIA THROUGHOUT THE AREA, FOR INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT ACCESS TO HEAT.
NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS, A LITTLE MORE FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT, WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS NEAR ZERO. WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL TO -15 OR LOWER ACROSS AVERY COUNTY, ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES AND NORTHERN JACKSON
COUNTY. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH WINDS DROP OFF OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS COULD KEEP SOME
LOCATIONS FROM REACHING CRITERIA, BUT WITH POWER OUTAGES CONTINUING,
IT'S PRUDENT TO KEEP AN IMPACT-MINDED ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WARNING.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY, BUT
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT PICK BACK UP ON TUESDAY.
WITH FULL SUN, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MOST ON TUESDAY. THAT SAID, HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED COLD WAVE IS EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS MAY RETURN TO SOME AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
WE WILL BE STUCK IN A COLD WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE WEEK, WITH
A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF VORT LOBES WILL SWING
AROUND THE VORTEX AND SUPPLY REINFORCING SHOTS OF VERY COLD AIR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE, POSSIBLY AS MODELS
INCORPORATE LESS SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATION THAN ON EARLIER RUNS,
BUT FORECAST MIN/MAX VALUES STILL REMAIN 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL, BUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR LIGHT RIME ICING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE TN BORDER. CAA WILL
REMAIN STRONG AT THAT TIME AND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH COULD OCCUR
ON RIDGETOPS. THOUGH TEMPS WON'T BE AS COLD AS MONDAY NIGHT,
A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SPOTS WILL SEE WIND CHILL DIP BELOW -5F ON
ACCOUNT OF THE WIND. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
HELPING TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR NW WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AT THAT
TIME. MODEL/ENSEMBLE QPF RESPONSE HAS DIMINISHED FOR WED NIGHT AND
POP IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT-CHANCE SNOW MENTION
IN THE NW FLOW AREAS, BUT AGAIN FLURRIES WOULD BE NO SURPRISE. BOTH
TUE AND WED NIGHTS, THE HIGH ELEVATION WIND CHILLS APPEAR MARGINAL
FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON OBJECTIVE CRITERIA, BUT EVEN SO,
THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND
THOSE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD DUE TO ANY PRE-EXISTING POWER OUTAGES.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THE EXTENT OF SUBZERO WIND CHILLS IS SMALLER, THOUGH IMPACT STILL
COULD BE HIGHER THAN USUAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX AND DROP SOUTH THRU THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TO SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWFA. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN TREND COLDER BY A
FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT (BACK TO SINGLE DIGITS), AND WINDS TICK
UPWARD AS WELL. HENCE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET
EVEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN SPOTS, AS LOW TEMPS DIP INTO THE
TEENS THERE AND ADVISORY THRESHOLD IS WARMER. BASED ON TWO-DAY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES (AVL, GSP,
CLT) LOOK TO BE WELL WITHIN COLD WAVE CRITERIA HEADING INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND, SO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED TO
ADDRESS CONCERNS ABOUT LONGER-DURATION COLD LEADING TO GREATER
IMPACTS SUCH AS GREATER INCIDENCE OF FROZEN PIPES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IF SNOW WERE TO FALL,
IT COULD EASILY REINTRODUCE OR WORSEN TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ONSET.
26/12Z GFS AND GDPS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE 26/00Z ECMWF IN
SHOWING THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE CUTTING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, INDUCING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SATURDAY AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE LOW, BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR THE
UPPER LOW TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE NUMBER OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING
THIS EVOLUTION HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOME GEFS
MEMBERS STILL DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS IN
NC/VA AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF, SO THAT CAN'T BE WRITTEN
OFF EITHER, JUST YET, AND IF NOTHING ELSE LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW COULD
RESULT IN THE USUAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS, SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST ALL THE AREA SATURDAY OWING TO
THE FRESHLY ARRIVED ARCTIC AIRMASS. LREF MEMBER SOUNDING WET-BULB
PROFILES ARE VIRTUALLY ALL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE COLUMN, AND FWIW,
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAM TECHNIQUE SUGGEST
P-TYPE WOULD BE ALL SNOW AS WELL. IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY WHETHER
THE DEVELOPING PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH NW TO INCLUDE OUR
CWA. THIS PROBABILITY HAS INCREASED AND SO POPS ARE NOW IN THE 30%
RANGE FOR A PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT. THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO
BEAR WATCHING, GIVEN THAT THE PROLONGED COLD TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD MAKE EVEN LIGHT SNOW STICK TO ROADS MORE THAN USUAL,
AND LEAD TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. PRECIP CHANCES CURRENTLY PEAK OVER
THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY BUT NW FLOW SNOW COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ***AMD NOT SKED WILL BE CARRIED AT KHKY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO ASOS OUTAGE.*** MVFR STRATOCU, AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
OCCASIONALLY AFFECTING KAVL. HAVE A TEMPO FOR KAVL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOW VFR STRATOCU IS ALSO BEING SEEN IN
CONVERGENCE ZONES DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE ARE GENERALLY
STAYING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BUT WOULD CREATE CIGS IF THEY SHIFT
AND MOVE OVERHEAD. DON'T HAVE ANY RESTRICTIONS AS THIS TIME SINCE
THEY HAVE NOT BEEN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GUSTY N TO NW WIND, W AT KAND,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING,
BUT LINGERING AT KAVL. WINDS TURN SW FOR ALL BUT KAVL TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD. KAVL WILL KEEP A NNW WIND AND MAY SEE LOW END GUSTS
ON TUESDAY AS WELL. SKC EXPECTED ONCE THE STRATOCU DISSIPATES LATER
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1999 17 1940 54 1916 2 1986
KCLT 75 1890 24 1940 58 1890 6 1940
KGSP 73 1954 29 1940 57 1949 8 1940
RECORDS FOR 01-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1914 7 1897 52 1916 -2 1986
1897
KCLT 79 1944 20 1897 59 1916 5 1986
KGSP 77 1944 29 1986 55 1957 5 1986
RECORDS FOR 01-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 25 1977 52 1917 -1 1897
1897
KCLT 79 2002 29 2014 59 1957 8 1897
KGSP 78 2002 27 1897 57 1957 6 1897
1916
RECORDS FOR 01-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 11 1966 55 1950 -7 1966
1914
KCLT 78 2002 19 1966 59 1914 4 1966
KGSP 76 1975 20 1966 53 2002 -6 1966
RECORDS FOR 01-31
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 1975 13 1909 57 1950 1 1966
KCLT 77 1975 27 1909 59 1950 4 1966
KGSP 79 1975 31 1934 60 1950 3 1966
1909
RECORDS FOR 02-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1950 22 1898 55 1950 4 1909
KCLT 76 1950 27 1900 55 1896 10 1900
KGSP 73 1957 30 1980 56 1969 9 1900
1936 1950
1916
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-059.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
JCW/RWH
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