912
FXUS62 KGSP 032244
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN ADDED TO MORE OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FOR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS ISSUANCE, BUT THE LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PEOPLE SHOULD CONSIDER
PROTECTING SENSITIVE PLANTS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
2. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN,
AT LEAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS, CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW,
BUT REMAINS WORTHY OF MONITORING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PEOPLE SHOULD
CONSIDER PROTECTING SENSITIVE PLANTS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL ESSENTIALLY RE-CENTER
ITSELF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, BUT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE VERY GOOD UNDER CLEAR SKY AND WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
WIND. HOWEVER, MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ON
THE ORDER OF 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING, LIMITING THE
THREAT OF FROST OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL STILL GET COLD
ENOUGH IN SOME PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND VALLEY LOCATIONS STAND
THE BEST CHANCE, ESPECIALLY PLACES THAT ARE NORMALLY SHELTERED
ANYWAY. THE NEW FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOME FROST ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER VALLEY AND LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY,
BUT THE COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER A FLAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST ALLOWING FOR SOME ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD TEMPS TO RETURN TO WITHIN A
CATEGORY OF NORMAL BUT ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MONDAY, AND THEN BACK
TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE AFTERNOON RH BOTH DAYS SHOULD STAY AROUND
OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL
RAIN, AT LEAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS, CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW,
BUT REMAINS WORTHY OF MONITORING.
SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AS WE GET OUT INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO A MID/UPPER TROF MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS AFFECT ON A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY REGIONS. WE STILL HAVE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT BUT RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST, WHICH IS A WELCOME SIGHT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. ONE TREND
IS FOR THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO MAKE SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH
LESS AMPLITUDE, WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO PROLONG OUR RAINY PERIOD,
WHICH IN THIS CASE WOULD NOT NECESSARILY BE A BAD THING. THE NEW
FORECAST WILL FEATURE A LONGER PERIOD OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL PRECIP
PROBS WED/THU. THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE MODEL BLEND
ALSO SHOWS THE CHANCES OF GETTING AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
MTNS/WESTERN UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS HAS INCREASED TO 40-60
PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE HIGH CHANCES MIGHT NOT TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT, AS THERE IS NOW SOME INDICATION IN SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE OF A SPLIT OCCURRING, WITH BETTER PRECIP MOVING FROM
EAST TN UP INTO WESTERN VA, AND ANOTHER BATCH MOVING EAST WITH
DEEP CONVECTION FROM GA INTO THE MIDLANDS, ESSENTIALLY MISSING US
TO THE SOUTH. WE'D STILL GET SOME RAIN, BUT NOT ALL THAT MUCH. WE
SHALL SEE HOW THESE TRENDS MOVE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, THEY APPEAR ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY DID THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE AREA FROM THE LAKELANDS TO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF METRO CLT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE A
JOINT PROB AROUND 30 PCT OF SFC-BASED CAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG AND DEEP
SHEAR ABOVE 30KT. THE DAY 4/WED OUTLOOK HAS THE RISK AREA WELL
TO OUR WEST, THOUGH SOME OF THE NCAR AI GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT RISK
AREA NOSING INTO THE UPSTATE. ALSO, THERE'S NO SPC RISK AREA FOR
DAY 5/THU BUT THE AI GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POSSIBILITIES IN EASTERN
NC. ESSENTIALLY THIS INDICATES A TIMING ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS, SO ANY SPEEDING UP OR SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM COULD
EASILY IMPROVE OUR CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. WORTH MONITORING.
A BRIEF COOL-DOWN CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY,
NOTHING TOO EXTREME, BUT ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT OUR REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON GUSTS BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/TW
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