189
FXUS62 KGSP 141830
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS, OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RELATIVELY WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH LOW RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RELATIVELY WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THE WEATHER IS STILL LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET THRU THE WEEK WITH A
FAIRLY LOW CHANCE FOR ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. WE HAVE A BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHICH COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HRS AND HELPS KEEP THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE/SUPPRESSED WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. WITH
THE FROPA LATER IN THE DAY TODAY, WE GET ONE MORE HOT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE STILL HAVE THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR SOME WEAK, DRY, COLD AIR DAMMING AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY TO A POSITION OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES ON WED. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
TUES THAT HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH SOME INCREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS, BUT THERE WILL BE MINIMAL FORCING FOR PRECIP AND
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE DOESN'T HANG AROUND FOR LONG. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON WED, WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE
AIRMASS MODIFIES AND WARMS, WE EXPECT A RETURN OF HIGH ELEVATION
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HRS OF MVFR
CIGS OVER THE UPSTATE SITES AND KAVL LATE TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO REACH KAVL OVERNIGHT.
ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DOES MATERIALIZE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR
SO AND THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AROUND NOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
FAVOR A N TO NE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN MORE E TO NE
THIS EVENING AND STRENGTHEN A BIT BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
WINDS AT KAVL SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND THEN TOGGLE AROUND
TO SELY LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS INCREASE LATER
IN THE WEEK. MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THRU THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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