440
FXUS62 KGSP 070557
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO ANY OF THE WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH
THIS FOREACAST PACKAGE.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR NE GEORGIA TODAY,
11 AM TO 7 PM EST.
A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TN BORDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT STILL EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MADISON/YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
2. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, ALONG
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF
THE PIEDMONT. THESE CONDITIONS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. STRONGER WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THOSE
IMPACTS BUT ALSO COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
3. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
4. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY,
OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT BRINGS BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES POSSIBLY
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
5. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MADISON/YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
MOISTURE HAS BECOME SHALLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT, BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE IN THE -10 TO -15
C RANGE, WHICH SUPPORTS ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM, BUT ARE RATHER SHALLOW WITH LITTLE RADAR
ECHOES ACROSS KY/TN ATTM. THERE MAY BE MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR RIME ICE GOING ON OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN BORDER, BUT
STILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP, AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES
AND TEMPS WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER DECREASE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4", WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE 7 AM END TIME FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
MOISTURE REALLY DIMINISHES QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING, BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT WOULD REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES THRU LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT, ALONG WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. THESE CONDITIONS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. STRONGER WINDS WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THOSE IMPACTS BUT ALSO COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE WIND EVENT THIS MORNING, LINGERING
THRU THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION, AS A STRONG 60-70 KT JET AT 850 MB
WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT IN THE 09-15Z TIME
FRAME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SFC PRESSURE RISES ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING
INTO HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS GUSTS
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT AWAY FROM THE ESCARPMENT ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY AREAS SEEM WELL-PLACED AND NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. PARTS OF THE PRODUCTS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
EARLY AND 850 MB WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GUSTS SHOULD
FOLLOW SUIT, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE ESCARPMENT.
AS GUSTY WINDS LINGER INTO THE AFTN, RH WILL PLUMMET BELOW 25%
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ABOVE 3500 AND NEAR THE
TN BORDER. THESE CONDITIONS USUALLY RESULT IN ELEVATED DANGER OF
WILDFIRES, BUT LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES IN NC/SC HAVE REPORTED FUELS
ARE STILL TOO WET FOLLOWING THE RECENT WINTER STORMS AND SNOW MELT
TO SUPPORT THE LEVEL OF RISK THAT WOULD WARRANT AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT. IN GA 10-HR FUEL MOISTURES PROBABLY WILL DROP
BELOW 8% IN THE DRY/WINDY WEATHER TODAY, SO A STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED THERE PER STATE CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THRU
DAYBREAK, GUSTY WINDS REACH THEIR PEAK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GET
INTO THE -5 TO -15 DEG F RANGE BY 7 AM SAT ACROSS MUCH OF AVERY
COUNTY AND ABOVE 3500 FT IN THE REST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS
DON'T WARM UP MUCH TODAY, WHILE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. SO WIND CHILLS
ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTN, BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL OF GETTING BELOW -5 AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH CONTINUES TO 7
AM SUNDAY. THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. USE CAUTION
WHILE TRAVELING OUTSIDE. WEAR APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, A HAT, AND
GLOVES.
KEY MESSAGE 4: HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH
TUESDAY, OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT BRINGS BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
CHANCES POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AROUND FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AS THE 00Z CAMS SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS, ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS AVERY, MITCHELL, AND YANCEY
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ANY SNOW THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, PER
THE GFS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW RAIN CHANCES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, CONFIDENCE ON POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPEARS TO TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WHICH GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON. THE MAIN P-TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT, WINTRY P-TYPES MAY
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 5: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND SUNDAY BEFORE
WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MOST OF THE
WORKWEEK.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER BOUT OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL END UP 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WE DO NOT APPEAR
TO GET CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS AT ANY OF THE CLIMATE SITES THESE DAYS.
A COOLING TREND DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS NORMAL FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT KAVL: VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS,
AND MAINLY SKC THIS MORNING. A FEW STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING IN
MOUNTAIN WAVE MAY BE SEEN PARTICULARLY NEAR KCLT AND KHKY, POSSIBLY
CAUSING SLANT-RANGE VSBY ISSUES AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP AND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE, WITH FREQUENCY/MAGNITUDE GENERALLY
TRENDING UPWARD THRU DAYBREAK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS (UP TO 35 KT)
POSSIBLE AT KHKY AND KGSP. GUST POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
FOR A TIME THRU MID-MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THRU SATURDAY,
WITH SOME SITES SEEING GUSTS DROP OFF AT SUNSET. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
AT FL120-220 ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS AFTER 00Z SUN.
AT KAVL: BASES OF THE UPSLOPE-INDUCED CLOUD DECK NEAR THE TN
BORDER HAVE LOWERED TO NEAR THE MVFR-VFR THRESHOLD, CIGS SHOULD
GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN ABOUT FL025-035 THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FLURRIES ARE SEEN ON WEBCAMS NEAR THE AIRPORT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY DUE TO -SHSN WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE SAME
WINDOW, SO TEMPO HANDLES BOTH. GUSTS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 40 KT
PRIOR TO DAWN AND CONTINUE AT SIMILAR MAGNITUDE THRU THE MORNING
HOURS, THOUGH CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP. SLOW TAPER OF GUSTS THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER ARRIVING TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
051-052-056>059-062-068>072-502-504-506-508-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
048>050.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-
050-053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
059.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-101>106-
108-109.
AR/ARK/JCW
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