074
FXUS62 KGSP 271054
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS PROFILES
REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER CP AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY/TONIGHT,
REINFORCING THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND BRINGING MARGINALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WED. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON THURS AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER REINFORCING/BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
EARLY SATURDAY AND RE-ESTABLISH SOME AMOUNT OF COLD-AIR DAMMING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH
A BROAD AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA AND
PRODUCE SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PRIMARILY VFR. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG STILL MAY
AFFECT KAVL AND KEPT IFR IN TEMPO THERE FOR THE FIRST HOUR. SOME
FOG OVER LAKES NEAR KCLT, KHKY, KAND BUT WINDS UNFAVORABLE FOR
DIRECTING FOG TOWARD THOSE SITES. BEYOND THIS MORNING, SHOULD
BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH LIGHT MAINLY N TO NE WINDS EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF SE WINDS AT KAVL. EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS
APPROACHING KCLT FROM THE EAST AT OR AFTER DAYBREAK WED, OR FORMING
ALONG THE TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF KAVL, BUT THOSE DEVELOPMENTS ARE
TOO UNLIKELY TO MENTION AT THIS RANGE. CANNOT HOWEVER RULE OUT
MORE VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. RESTRICTIONS
MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/JCW
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