375
FXUS62 KGSP 170023
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
823 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN.
2. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. FROST POTENTIAL MAY RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
3. QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN.
IT'S MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A STINT OF
ISOLATED DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS, AND EVEN
A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPSTATE. WIDELY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS REMAIN
IN PLACE IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHERWISE
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ONCE AGAIN IN STORE. TO OUR
WEST, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EASILY-DISCERNIBLE IN THE THETA-E AND
DEWPOINT FIELDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE INTERESTING
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GAIN
MOMENTUM AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WINDS AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PUSHING TO
OUR EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IS DEPICTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT, SUCH THAT LINGERING WIND GUSTS OF 15-20MPH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE ORIENTED FOR A GAP WIND TO DEVELOP
IN PARTS OF THE UPSTATE AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
MOST OF THE DAY, NOT REALLY QUIETING DOWN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL IN AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE CYCLES, MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS, AND ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH IT FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, THERE'S AN INCREASINGLY
CONVINCING SIGNAL IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLES FEATURE MAINLY <0.1"
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WEST-FACING
SLOPES IN THE NC MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS.
FORECAST PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH FAVORABLE ORIENTATION
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND VECTORS AND A STRONG POSTFRONTAL INVERSION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. AS A RESULT,
CAMS HAVE TRENDED SHARPLY TOWARD MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. FROST POTENTIAL MAY
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, A DRAMATICALLY COOLER
CP AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SHARPLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
STILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LO 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS LINGERING CAA CONTINUES TO COOL THE AREA OFF.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHEN MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING, AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED,
VALID FROM 1AM THROUGH 9AM SUNDAY. THE LOW TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL COOL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WINDS HERE SHOULD REMAIN JUST ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST RISK...THOUGH PATCHY FROST
IN SECLUDED LOCATIONS SEEMS REASONABLE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, JUST ENOUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD HAVE
OCCURRED THAT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS
POSSIBLE THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AS BY THIS POINT THE CORE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST, AND WINDS SHOULD BE
CALMER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO PLANS FOR ANY PRODUCT JUST YET,
BUT ONE MAY BECOME NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY THE GROWING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
THAT DEPICT A STACKED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST...WHICH WOULD
REINVIGORATE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW, RAISING WINDS AND REDUCING
FROST POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, FROST POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY A STOUT BLOCKING RIDGE THAT'LL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
THINGS STABLE AND UNPERTURBED, SO NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS THE AIR MASS ONLY SLOW MODIFIES, SUCH THAT BY MID-WEEK MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW- TO MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S...MORE OR LESS AROUND CLIMO FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. STILL EXPECTING WINDS OUTSIDE THE MTNS TO TOGGLE FROM SW TO
NW/N OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WINDS AT KAVL WENT NWLY A FEW HOURS AGO.
SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NC MTNS AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. IN ADDITION, BANDS OF STRATOCU IN THE LOW-
END VFR RANGE ARE NOW MOVING OVER THE NC MTNS AND WESTERN UPSTATE, AND
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EXPANSION OF THESE CIGS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
THE PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO KAVL AND AREAS WHERE RAIN IS ACTIVELY FALLING,
THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT KCLT WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY CIG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
SCT/LIFT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR
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