701
FXUS62 KGSP 151821
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN
TONIGHT BUT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IT EAST OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A DAMMING HIGH LOOKALIKE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WEAKENS AS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
HIGHS RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS,
AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, BY FRIDAY.
THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LOW MOVES WEST
ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SHORTWAVES HELP PUSH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WHICH DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR STRATOCU IS SLOWLY SCATTERING
OUT/LIFTING AND SHOULD BE VFR ALL AREAS BY 20Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CHANCE TOO LOW FOR THE KAVL TAF.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
TAFS. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE
USUAL QUESTION OF WHETHER IT REACHES KAVL. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SCT
LOW CLOUDS FOR NOW. SOME VFR CU EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. ENE
WIND, SE AT KAVL, THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
EVENING. LIGHT ENE WIND, NNW AT KAVL, DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS INCREASE
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
RWH
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