401
FXUS62 KGSP 221050
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN
FELL SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
DAILY RECORDS.
2. COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER MONDAY
BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR
AND BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE WILDFIRE DANGER
MONDAY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
3. A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MOSTLY- DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
4. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND USHERS IN A COOLER
AIR MASS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALIZED DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE DAILY RECORDS.
SOME SWATHS OF 0.20" TO 0.50" TOTAL RAINFALL OCCURRED SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS SW NC AND THE UPSTATE, AND NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING LED
TO SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE IN
THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT. PBL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, SO IN GENERAL
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE FLUCTUATED RAPIDLY. THOUGH THE
WORST VSBY HAS PROBABLY PASSED FOR THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS,
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FOG AS LATE AS 9 AM.
OTHERWISE, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS TODAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING ON AN UPWARD
TREND. PROFILES DURING THE DAY WILL BE MODESTLY DRY THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER; WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAP OFF
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION, AND ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS MAY
FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PROFILES FEATURE SOME UNINHIBITED
INSTABILITY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD OVERCOME ANY RISING
PARCELS. THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VIRTUALLY ZERO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALONG WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS--AND TO SOME EXTENT LESSER HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER--SUGGEST TEMPS WILL RISE WARMER THAN SATURDAY, REACHING THE
UPPER 80S OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. THE DAILY RECORD AT GSP IS FORECAST TO BE BROKEN, BUT
CLT AND AVL DON'T QUITE MAKE THEIR RECORDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER
MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH
DRIER AIR AND BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE WILDFIRE
DANGER MONDAY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS OVER OUR REGION AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW BUT A FEW
UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS CERTAINLY COULD OCCUR; EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
PROFILES REMAIN TOO DRY ALONG THE FRONT, SO POPS REMAIN LESS THAN
10%. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THE COOLING
WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING IN THE PIEDMONT. THE MOUNTAINS MAY
SEE THEIR CALENDAR- DAY HIGH AT MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING, AND THE
DAILY HIGH MAY BE EARLIER THAN USUAL IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NW NC
PIEDMONT. VERTICAL PROFILES BECOME EVEN DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
A CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO DEVELOP. HREF PROBS OF 500 J/KG SBCAPE
PEAK IN THE 10-20% RANGE ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF I-85 MON AFTERNOON,
BUT CAMS REMAIN LARGELY DRY IN OUR CWA, ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FRONTAL DRYING DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL
EVENING. ACCORDINGLY WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS IN
OUR PIEDMONT MONDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH DIURNAL MIXING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE INCOMING DRY
AIRMASS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC AND SC PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AND GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE. THE COMBINED RH AND WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
OBJECTIVE CRITERIA FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER; WHERE RAIN DID NOT
OCCUR SATURDAY AUTOMATED FIRE WEATHER STATIONS REPORTED 10-HR FUEL
MOISTURES BELOW 8 PERCENT NEAR PEAK HEATING. THOSE FUEL READINGS
PROBABLY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER OVER THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS, SO
PENDING COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES, SOME AREAS MAY
END UP WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING
A PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT IN A 40% CHANCE CONTOUR FOR DRY THUNDER
PLUS LOW RH AND WINDS, BUT THE DRY THUNDER PROBABILITY WOULD SEEM
VERY LOW FOR OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MOSTLY-
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY ACTUALLY WIND UP A
CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL - WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOW 60S OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS - BEFORE THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AND HIGHS
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTING THIS WILL INITIALLY BE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL WITHIN A CAD-LIKE CONFIGURATION. ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED SHARPLY TOWARD A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS MID-WEEK, RESULTING IN A MORE SUPPRESSED FORECAST...NOW
FEATURING BARELY-MENTIONABLE POP FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID-AND LOW-LEVELS, PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE REALIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BASED ON THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 4: ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND USHERS IN A
COOLER AIR MASS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY, A BROAD, LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL DIP DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST, RESULTING IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING
ALL THE WAY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO NEW ENGLAND...AND DRIVING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
FRIDAY'S FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY, BECAUSE ENSEMBLES AREN'T YET
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH AROUND
40% OF LREF MEMBERSHIP FEATURING A FASTER FROPA THAT WOULD IMPACT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMP...AND THE OTHER 60% FEATURING A SLOWER,
WEAKER FROPA THAT WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPS FRIDAY.
REGARDLESS, BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE AREA. THE BULK OF ENSEMBLES FAVOR WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
IT, AND AS A RESULT EVEN THOSE MEMBERS WHICH FAVOR A SLOWER FROPA
ONLY DEPICT MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR...PAIRED
WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ENOUGH FOR SOME DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION BUT NOT A SLAM DUNK SEVERE THREAT. MEMBERS FAVORING
THE FASTER FROPA, OF COURSE, DEPICT MINIMAL SBCAPE.
THE BIGGER STORY, THEN, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COOLDOWN, WITH
TEMPERATURE RETURNING BACK TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: KAVL SEEING A SHALLOW LAYER OF FOG AS OF 1030
UTC, WITH RAPID CHANGES IN VSBY HAVING OCCURRED IN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FOG POTENTIALLY WILL LINGER THRU AROUND 13Z,
WARRANTING TEMPO. KGSP AND KGMU SHOULD STAY JUST MIXED ENOUGH
TO KEEP FOG AT BAY, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT REDUCED VSBY
IN THAT TIMEFRAME. ASIDE FROM THE MORNING RESTRICTIONS, VFR THRU
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SW TODAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
IN THE AFTN, EXCEPT KAVL WHICH WILL STAY NW FOR THE MORNING. WITH
NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE SITES THRU TONIGHT AND WIND
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, FOG NOT LOOKING
LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. AS WINDS VEER AND STRENGTHEN
ABOVE THE PBL PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT TONIGHT, LLWS CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MET OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, MAINLY AFTER 04Z. GUIDANCE SIGNAL
STRONG ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AT KAVL AND KAND, BUT LESS
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT OTHER SITES. KAVL WILL SEE WINDS TURN LIGHT NW
AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK MON, WITH NW SHIFT LATE MON MORNING AT KCLT.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS AT ALL SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD
LAST THROUGH EARLY TUE. SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
WITH MOIST FRONTAL ZONE FORMING OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1907 32 1915 58 1991 15 1965
KCLT 89 1907 38 1883 64 1948 24 1965
KGSP 85 1935 42 1985 62 1948 20 1906
1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/MPR
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