264
FXUS62 KGSP 052355
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
2. FROST STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA I-40 CORRIDOR EACH NIGHT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
3. FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTDOOR
BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, ROBUST CAA WILL ALLOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
TO FILTER IN, WITH LOWS TONIGHT ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS. SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL
DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE, RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT TODAY'S WETTING RAIN WILL HELP WITH FUELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FROST STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA I-40 CORRIDOR EACH NIGHT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR REMAINS ON TRACK TO COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH NC
MOUNTAIN PRE-DAWN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. VALUES AROUND
FREEZING WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE
RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO MAXIMUMS ON MONDAY, A LIMITED THREAT FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT ARISES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE NC MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WHICH CAN DECOUPLE, WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.
AS THE CENTER OF A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRANSLATES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS TUESDAY, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR MAKES IT WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION. PRE-DAWN MINIMUMS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE STILL CREEPING UPWARD AND GIVEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FCST TO BE IN PLACE, CONSIDERABLE MIXING SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FROST POTENTIAL TO JUST THE DEEPER NC MTN VALLEYS.
NOTE THAT THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM REMAINS INACTIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC, SO ALTHO SOME PARTS OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS
MIGHT GET BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT, A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT
BE ISSUED AND THE FCST WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPEAK FOR ITSELF.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTDOOR BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY TUMBLE TO BELOW 30
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THANKS TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THERE IS A RISK OF LOW AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WIND
GUSTS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE RISK FOR REACHING RED
FLAG CRITERIA REMAINS LOW.
BENEFICIAL RAIN TODAY SHOULD KEEP FUELS WET ENOUGH ON MONDAY, BUT
THE DRY AIR MASS AND A LIGHT NW TO N WIND SHOULD PROVIDE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FUELS TO DRY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS, THE LOW RH MIGHT BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC IF
FUELS DRY OUT AS EXPECTED, BECAUSE OF BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH. LAND MANAGERS WILL WANT TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS
FORECAST PROBLEM. ONCE THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY, SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN AND
AFTERNOON RH RISES ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FCST AREA
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING
EAST OF KCLT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
THEN NLY BY THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
AT KAVL THRU THE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THE OTHER TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME SPORADIC LOW-END GUSTS
THRU THE EVENING, BUT THEY SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. LLWS REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING, HOWEVER
IT APPEARS WEAKER PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND WAS NOT INCLUDED
IN THE CURRENT SET OF TAFS. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME SITES
FAVORING A NW TO W DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND LINGERS THRU THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, WITH DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CSH/JPT/TDP
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