673
FXUS62 KGSP 191322
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
922 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY CHANGE WAS UPDATING KEY MESSAGE 1 AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR
HAVE PUSHED EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED THIS MORNING BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
2. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WE'LL SETTLE BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED THIS MORNING BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, ALLOWING SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC
PIEDMONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT AN ISOLATED
SUB-SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. IT WILL BE COOLER
TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE GSP CWA THIS EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BEHIND IT. COOLER LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT, ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON
SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WE'LL SETTLE BACK INTO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY
ONWARD.
BY SATURDAY, A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FCST AREA DRY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A
SERIES OF WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SEVERE
RISK TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY, WITH ONLY
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.
BY MID-WEEK, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER
TROFING DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS OUR AREA
IN RESPONSE. THERE'S STILL NOT MUCH ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY WRT ANY
SPECIFIC IMPULSES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN
MAY PRODUCE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO THAT MOVES OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK, POSSIBLY INCREASING OUR SEVERE CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CIG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR AND MOSTLY
DRY. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE AND THE
SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT, BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT KCLT,
KGSP, AND KGMU AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WINDS WILL TURN W AND
THEN NW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NLY LATER THIS EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE NW BY MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EACH
DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT
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