294
FXUS62 KGSP 231053
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINING
UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR
WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
THAT MOVES INTO POSITION OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE MTNS DEVELOPING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UNUSUALLY DRY
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE THAT HELPS
KEEP TEMPS ONLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THE ONLY
CLUE THAT WE ARE IN A WEDGE REGIME WILL BE THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. LOW TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY
COOL, BUT ANY FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO RIDGETOPS
ABOVE 6K FEET. FROST WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFTER THAT, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREATS ARE
APPARENT. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
DEAMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
MAKING IT BACK TO NORMAL FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE
MAY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL
BE MOISTURE-STARVED, SO NO PRECIP WILL BE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM THE NE BY
13-15Z, GENERALLY 7 TO 9 KT EXCEPT AT KAVL, THOUGH GUSTS DO NOT LOOK
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO MENTION. KAVL APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT/VRB
UNTIL SETTING UP FROM SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT, NE FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD PICK UP SLIGHTLY OR MAYBE EVEN BECOME
SLIGHTLY GUSTY ON THOSE AREAS TOWARD DAWN SAT. KAVL PROBABLY WILL
DECOUPLE TONIGHT DESPITE THE HIGH BUILDING IN, AND IF ANY CLOUDS
ARE SEEN THEY LIKELY WOULD BE RADIATIONAL STRATUS. COULD SEE A
FEW CLOUDS AT OR BELOW FL030 BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT KHKY BY 05-07Z,
AND ALSO AT KCLT BY AROUND 12Z.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/JCW
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