716
FXUS62 KGSP 151044
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
TROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THRU THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH, HELPING DEEPEN IT AND ALLOW DRY, COOLER AIR TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH TODAY THRU TUESDAY. A SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL CROSSING THE
CWFA ATTM, BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO OUR SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN A DRY DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH NOTICEABLY
LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EVEN
COOLER THICKNESSES WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, AND
COMBINED WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST JUST AS A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD NEAR THE NW GULF COAST. HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE MAY ACTIVATE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE
FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY, AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MODELS
SHOW GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW POPS, AS DEWPTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. FROM THERE, FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES,
AS MODELS DISAGREE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
AS IT RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER LOW THAN OTHER GUIDANCE, AND IS
LATER ON EJECTING IT, WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE FASTER SIDE AND HAS
THE WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY. EVEN IF THE WAVE ENDS UP VERY
WEAK OR STAYING TO OUR SOUTH, INCREASED POPS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AND
SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. THE WAVE MAY BRING
INCREASED GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING. A HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU THE AREA AND
BRING DRIER AIR AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY, AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PATCHY IFR CLOUDS IN THE UPSTATE AND MVFR
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE DRY
TODAY WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW CU IN THE AFTN. HIGH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER VFR CLOUDS MAY INCREASE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS AT KAVL THRU MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE AFTN. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ELSEWHERE, MAINLY NW OR WNW,
EXCEPT W TO WSW AT KAND.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS MAY FORM ACROSS GA AND EXPAND NE INTO THE UPSTATE AND
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN
SHOULD SCATTER OUT. A SIMILAR SETUP MAY OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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