716
FXUS62 KGSP 090702
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER AND POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-JULY RETURN SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
2. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AGAIN TODAY BEFORE BETTER COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL ACTIVITY RETURNS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS EVEN BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE MUCH COOLER AND POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-JULY
RETURN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW, DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (<105 DEGREES). HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
SATURDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH GETS NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON TEMPS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH
HEAT INDICES RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT STARTING
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE GSP FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD AIR DAMMING WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST.
COLD AIR DAMMING LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY AND COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TO RETURN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MONDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING
HIGHS DROP DOWN TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS APPEAR TO MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT WILL BE BRIEF, AS HIGHS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RETURN TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AGAIN TODAY BEFORE BETTER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY RETURNS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
EVEN BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AGAIN. HOWEVER, 00Z CAMS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW TODAY LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG, SUB-SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND WITH CAMS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH THIS FRONT REMAINS LOW,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY (AS THE FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH), A LOW-END
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS AND SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. KAVL WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE LIFR CIGS AND IFR FOG DEVELOP CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK SO HAVE A TEMPO FROM 09Z-12Z. THE NC TERMINALS WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE TSRA DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SO WENT WITH PROB30S AT KCLT, KAVL, AND
KHKY. ALTHOUGH 00Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SC TERMINALS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD TRACK DIRECTLY OVER KGSP, KGMU,
OR KAND. THUS, MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SC TERMINALS FOR
NOW. WINDS AT KAVL WILL BE MOSTLY NW/WNW WHILE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE MOSTLY W/WSW THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS WILL RETURN
AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
MOSTLY 18-22 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA RETURNS FOR ALL TERMINALS
FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page