206
FXUS62 KGSP 032328
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
728 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 00Z TAF UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LOW-END HYDRO THREAT MAY
EVOLVE BY MID-WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LOW-END HYDRO
THREAT MAY EVOLVE BY MID-WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN RESPONSE, AN LLJ CONTINUES TO ADVECT
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS...MAINLY TO OUR EAST, HOWEVER.
THE LOW TERRAIN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR OF CONVECTION, WITH THE
WINDOW FOR INITIATION RAPIDLY WANING; ONLY A FEW INSIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED
LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT; THAT CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH THE ADDED SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (1.5-2.0", AT OR ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AT BOTH GSO AND FFC), EXPECT
HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
MAINLY DURING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX AND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN USUAL.
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, A DIGGING LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED IN LO-RES GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS, AND SEEMS LIKELY TO HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN,
RESULTING IN HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. REPEAT DAYS OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN A SLOWLY-INCREASING RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. ENHANCED POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BETWEEN NORMAL AND/OR A CATEGORY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NC MOUNTAINS. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST NEVER QUITE MADE IT INTO THE AREA
TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STAYED OUT OF
THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT ZONES. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER MURKY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR
CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN, WHILE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LOOKS A BIT
DIMINISHED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF VIS RESTRICTIONS ADVERTISED IN THE NEW TAFS. STRATUS SHOULD
STEADILY SCATTER OUT AS IT HAS THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...SLOWLY
BUT SURELY...WITH A RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED.
INITIATION MAY TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER TUESDAY THAN IT HAS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT STILL EXPECT THE PEAK IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO TAKE PLACE MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE
THEY'LL BE CHANNELED MORE E/ESE BY THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.
OUTLOOK: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED
THE PREVIOUS EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/MPR
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