409
FXUS62 KGSP 281822
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ELBERT CO,
GA.
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST REMAINS LOW
FROM WED ONWARD. ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2. HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION IS POISED TO ADVANCE INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED UPDRAFTS
TO INTENSITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. 0-3
KM SHEAR OF 20+ KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF LOCALIZED
ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERING, AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLUSTERS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS
FROM SINGLE CELL UPDRAFT PULSES. BASED UPON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO LARGELY CLEAR THE
CWA BY EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING, FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT OF THIS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. FOG
WILL THEREFORE BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN
THE USUAL FOG-PRONE VALLEYS BENEATH THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AN ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY
OVER THE MISS AND TN VALLEYS EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ENDING
THE WEEK AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...WHEN AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE PIEDMONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CREEPING N
AND W TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS FROM THU
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE SAID THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT
INDEX FORECAST BEYOND TUE OR SO IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE HIGH
SENSITIVITY OF DEWPOINT TO THE H.I. CALCULATION...AND THE DEWPOINT
FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN, AS THEY OFTEN TEND TO MIX OUT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG ANTICYCLONES. WHILE HEAT
INDEX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO MON/TUE, VALUES OF AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP INTO ELBERT CO, GA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN COLLABORATION WITH
NWS FFC, ELBERT CO WILL BE INCLUDED IN A HEAT ADVISORY. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...GRADUALLY
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY AND RECREATION, SHOULD
PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
OTHERWISE, WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASING ALOFT, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MORE SUBSIDENT AND SUPPRESSED IN NATURE. THIS WILL
TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND ISOLATED-AT-MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TS MOVING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPOS FOR TSRA ARE WARRANTED AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR KHKY AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z. BASED UPON
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE TSRA MENTION IS
LIMITED TO A PROB30 AT KHKY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION, BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD
END AT THE TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN FROM WSW,
MOSTLY AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT NW AT KAVL) TO LIGHT NW,
OR LIGHT/VARIABLE AT ALL SITES TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT NE
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING, WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. THIS CREATES SOME CONCERN
THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK MON,
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO SOME
EXTENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. BASED UPON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
RESOURCES, CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS W=>N OF KAVL, WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AT THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ADVERTISED AT
KAVL, WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE HINTED AT
VIA 6SM AND FEW/SCT IFR LAYERS AT MOST OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1943 70 2018 44 1988
1954
1931
KCLT 101 1931 64 1943 76 1991 56 2008
1970
1931
KGSP 101 1954 66 1943 77 1931 53 1899
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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