120
FXUS62 KGSP 251444
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPS IN THE CAD AND WARMED THEM ALONG THE TN BORDER. KEPT
THE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGES BASICALLY THE SAME. STORM TOTALS ARE
NOW ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY TRANSITIONED TO RAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST
OF THE BALSAMS, AND THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HAVE CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR GRAHAM, SWAIN, AND NORTHERN
JACKSON AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE. HAYWOOD IS
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING BUT THE PIGEON RIVER VALLEY IS STILL BELOW
FREEZING, SO NO CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. PRECIP IS CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SW AS THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE COLD LAYER
SHRINKS KEEPING THE PRECIP FROM FREEZING BACK TO SLEET. SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DEPENDING
ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER AND PRECIP RATES. STILL EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD LAYER SHRINKS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MANY TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL SEE A CHANGE TO RAIN
AS WARMING TAKES PLACE THERE. STORM TOTALS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
SHOW ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
2. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
3. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
4. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR
FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAVE CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR GRAHAM, SWAIN, AND
NORTHERN JACKSON AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
HAYWOOD IS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING BUT THE PIGEON RIVER VALLEY IS
STILL BELOW FREEZING, SO NO CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. PRECIP IS CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SW AS THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE COLD
LAYER SHRINKS KEEPING THE PRECIP FROM FREEZING BACK TO SLEET. SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER AND PRECIP RATES. STILL EXPECT A CHANGE
OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD LAYER SHRINKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. MANY TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL SEE A CHANGE TO RAIN AS
WARMING TAKES PLACE THERE. STORM TOTALS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, A MAJOR ICE STORM IS ONGOING, WITH AN ICE STORM WARNING
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IMPACTS WILL BE CRIPPLING
ACROSS AT LEAST A PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY WHERE ICE
ACCRETION APPROACHES OR EXCEEDS 0.75". WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING HAS
OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA (EXCLUDING THE
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BALSAMS). THIS AIR MASS IS SUPPORTED BY 1040+ MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SETTLING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE AND INSENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVATION
OF THE BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CONUS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS PROVIDED BY
THE UNCA ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DEPT AS WELL AS ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE CHARLOTTE AREA REVEAL A STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF INTENSE WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE MATURING COLD POOL.
DESPITE THIS, THE COLD, DEEP NATURE OF THE CAD AIR MASS IS ALLOWING
HYDROMETEORS TO UNDERGO SOME DEGREE OF REFREEZING SUCH THAT PRECIP
HAS FALLEN LARGELY AS A WINTRY MIX SO FAR, WITH APPRECIABLE ACCUMS
OF SLEET, AND ONLY MINOR ICE ACCUMS THUS FAR. HAVING SAID THAT,
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME DEGREE OF A TRANSITION TO FZRA
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE,AS THE COLD LAYER BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW. WITH
DECENT PRECIP RATES ONGOING, ICE ACCRETION SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVING SAID THAT, THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE THIS
MORNING...OR AT LEAST A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A -FZDZ SCENARIO...ESP
OVER EASTERN AREAS, AS CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
DISRUPTS THE WIND AND THERMAL ADVECTION FIELDS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD BE GENERALLY ON THE MODEST SIDE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, THE VERY COLD AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY MODEST PRECIP
RATES SHOULD MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT ICE ACCRETION...AND MOST AREAS
WITHIN THE ICE STORM WARNING ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE BALLPARK OF
0.25" OF ICE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE VALLEYS
WEST OF THE BALSAMS, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING, WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN ALREADY HAVING
OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED FROM
THESE AREAS BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTING COLD AIR DAMMING IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY FALL APART
RATHER QUICKLY LATER TODAY, AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO
QUEBEC/BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE DAMMING RIDGE, STRONG WIND SHEAR
DEVELOPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE COLD POOL EAST OF DEVELOPING MESO-LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY, AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THUS, THE
CAD WILL CERTAINLY BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY BE SO COLD THAT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR EVEN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY/SC LAKELAND
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING, AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT/FRONTAL BAND SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE BAND ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO FALL MOSTLY AS FZRA WITHING THE CAD REGION, AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS WILL BE CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO PURE ICE ACCRETION,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY A QUICK ADDITIONAL 0.15-0.3 INCH OF
ICE, WITH STORM TOTALS OF A SOLID HALF INCH OF ICE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPSLOPE REGION OF THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT, WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE. WHILE CONVECTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE ELEVATED,
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS IMPINGING UPON THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW COLD POOL, WHICH COULD EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM
OF FALLING TREES AND LIMBS. IN OTHER WORDS, DAMAGE, POWER OUTAGES,
AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE RATHER RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL END ABRUPTLY BY EARLY EVENING. ANY WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING WILL BE BRIEF, AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BAND. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY
FROM THE NW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AND MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES BORDERING TN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 40-
60 MPH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WITH ICE-DAMAGED
TREES AND POWER LINES, AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPS COOL LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE MONDAY MORNING, AND COMBINED WITH
THE WIND, WIND CHILLS DIP BELOW -5 F IN SOME SPOTS. BASED ON
EXPECTED ONGOING IMPACTS FROM TODAY'S ICE STORM, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND RABUN
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GA FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST FORECAST,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS CONTINENTAL HIGH CENTERS
JUST WEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT, AND LOWER TEENS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-85.
WITH SOME WIND CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RESULTANT WIND
CHILL, STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA, WITH MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS IN COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY RANGE. WITH WIND CHILL FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MOST NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS, WHETHER WE OBJECTIVELY MEET CRITERIA WILL
DEPEND ON THE CLIMATOLOGY-BASED THRESHOLDS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
IMPACT-BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO CRITERIA GIVEN THAT A VERY LARGE
PROPORTION OF THE AREA COULD BE WITHOUT POWER. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING BOTH NIGHTS,
AND ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL
EXACERBATE THREATS OF HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE TRAVELING OR STILL
WITHOUT POWER. MAKE SURE TO CHECK UP ON VULNERABLE LOVED ONES AND
NEIGHBORS, PETS, AND HAVE PLENTY OF BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING.
REMEMBER TO AVOID BURNING FUELS LIKE PROPANE OR KEROSENE INDOORS AS
THIS INCREASES FIRE RISK AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA
OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ROUND AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING THRU THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL, BUT A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS
POSSIBLE AND IS REFLECTED IN SMALL POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER WED
NIGHT. WHILE TEMPS MAY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY, THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING MIN TEMPS BACK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THU MORNING NEAR THE TN BORDER ALONG WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS W HICH COULD PROMPT ANOTHER COLD WX ADVISORY OR EVEN
HIGH ELEVATION EXTREME COLD WARNING. MAINLY TEENS ELSEWHERE WITH
WIND CHILL ABOVE CRITERIA UNLESS AN EXCEPTION IS MADE FOR POWER
OUTAGES AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKELY TO TREND
A FEW DEGREES COLDER YET AGAIN, WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
SAME CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMP FRIDAY COULD BE BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH
OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ***AMD NOT SKED WILL BE CARRIED AT KHKY
UNTIL THE FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO ASOS OUTAGE.*** A WINTRY MIX
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE
GENERALLY MVFR AT THIS TIME, BUT ARE NOW EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
BY LATE MORNING, WITH LIFR FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON. SLEET AND SNOW
MIXING IN WITH THE PRECIP IS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF IFR VISBY. A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL FZRA IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING, AND THIS
MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN VISBY, BUT VISIBILITY WILL
REMAIN RESTRICTED IN -FZRA...OR POSSIBLY -FZDZ AS PRECIP RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LULL WILL
BE DISRUPTED BY A PRECIP BAND...POSSIBLY CONTAINING BRIEF +FZRA
THAT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH PRECIP ENDING IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL CIRCA 12Z MONDAY, WHEN
DEVELOPING NW FLOW WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. NE
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE BEFORE WEAKENING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, BRIEF GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
WITH SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT COULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT SW TONIGHT,
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NW AND INCREASING BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTS OF
20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVL DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1999 17 1940 54 1916 2 1986
KCLT 75 1890 24 1940 58 1890 6 1940
KGSP 73 1954 29 1940 57 1949 8 1940
RECORDS FOR 01-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1914 7 1897 52 1916 -2 1986
1897
KCLT 79 1944 20 1897 59 1916 5 1986
KGSP 77 1944 29 1986 55 1957 5 1986
RECORDS FOR 01-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 25 1977 52 1917 -1 1897
1897
KCLT 79 2002 29 2014 59 1957 8 1897
KGSP 78 2002 27 1897 57 1957 6 1897
1916
RECORDS FOR 01-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 11 1966 55 1950 -7 1966
1914
KCLT 78 2002 19 1966 59 1914 4 1966
KGSP 76 1975 20 1966 53 2002 -6 1966
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>050-052-053-056-057-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
ARK/JDL/RWH
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