774
FXUS62 KGSP 151103
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
REMAINING SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE UPDATED FOR THE ONGOING NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW EVENT IN THE APPALACHIANS.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NC AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH PRECIP/SNOW CHANCES HAVE CREPT UPWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FRIGID ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY,
DRIVING LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE NC-TN BORDER, GUSTY WINDS,
AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.
2. LOW-END FIRE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES LIMIT OVERALL THREAT.
3. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
COULD RESULT IN MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES, MAINLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.
4. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INTEREST, GIVEN THE CONSISTENT
GFS DEPICTION OF SNOW POTENTIAL, BUT A LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW.
5. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FRIGID ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY, DRIVING LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE NC-TN BORDER,
GUSTY WINDS, AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS. STILL OBSERVING INCREASINGLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ON SATELLITE, WITH THE OBVIOUS EXCEPTION OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS, WHERE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE,
AND LIGHT SNOW IS STILL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NC-TN BORDER. SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE NOW DROPPED OFF SHARPLY BETWEEN A LOST OF SATURATION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALMOST COMPLETE CESSATION OF DYNAMIC FORCING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1" OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SOME MOUNTAIN SLOPES
WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES
OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE AT EXTREMELY HIGH PEAKS ABOVE 4500FT.
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FAVORED WEST-FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON TODAY, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ENTIRELY BY SUNSET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SHOULD EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT NOON.
CURRENTLY ALSO SEEING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40KTS AT SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WITHIN A REGION OF ROBUST POSTFRONTAL CAA. WE'RE LIKELY
IN OR JUST PAST THE PEAK OF CAA RIGHT NOW, SO GUSTS SHOULDN'T GET
MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ALREADY ARE, AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY, AND SHOULD FINALLY SETTLE DOWN TO A STEADY
10-15KT BREEZE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
VISIBILITY ISSUES IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE BLOWING SNOW KICKED UP BY
WIND GUSTS CREATES PROBLEMS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN ISSUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ISOLATED BLOWING SNOW POCKETS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, VERY COLD WIND CHILLS - AS
LOW AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS - ARE ONGOING
THIS MORNING, AND EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOME EXTENT TONIGHT, THOUGH
THEY WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT AS THEY ARE NOW. CONSEQUENTLY,
A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING,
AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 7 AM ON
FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES LIMIT OVERALL
THREAT.
GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 25KTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY WITHIN THE TAIL END OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA, AS A STRONG
ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS. HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE USUAL DRY SLOT AROUND 850-800MB, WITH A FAIRLY WEAK POSTFRONTAL
INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING INTO THE DRY LAYER. AS SUCH, THINK
THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT; FORECAST RHS CRATER
TO AS LOW AS 22% THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVEN THIS COULD PROVE TO BE
A CONSERVATIVE PREDICTION IF EFFICIENT MIXING TRULY TAPS INTO
THE DRY SLOT. CONSEQUENTLY, FINE FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TEMPERATURES - WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT
INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-30S THIS AFTERNOON (SAVE FOR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THEY MAY HIT 40), IT'LL BE TOUGH FOR FIRES
TO CATCH AND SPREAD QUITE AS EFFECTIVELY, EVEN DESPITE DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. THAT'S NO MAGIC BULLET, HOWEVER - THESE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER,
SO IF YOU BURN, BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS!
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND STATE LAND MANAGERS,
THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF
OUR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES BEGINNING
AT 10 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES, MAINLY AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET FRIDAY COURTESY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY
BACK TOWARD NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKY, A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF A DIGGING MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHEARING OUT THIS WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROF. IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE MUCH, BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DPVA,
JUST ENOUGH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM A JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTNS, JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE JET
AXIS, JUST ENOUGH WSW UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS, AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO SUPPORT
PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION AND THEN
MOVING EAST OVER THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP PROBS WERE RAISED A
BIT MORE AND WILL BE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER THE SMOKIES AND
SOUTHWEST NC INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST GA. THICKNESSES/TEMPS WILL
BE BORDERLINE FOR WINTRY PRECIP, BUT FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGEST AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THE FORCING LIFTS PAST TO THE NORTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE NOT TRANSLATING MUCH EAST OF THE MTNS SUCH
THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT AND DRYING UP BY MID-MORNING
SATURDAY. THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION PUTS A LIMIT ON THE QPF
AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE, SO THE SITUATION FAVORS A HIGH ELEVATION ADVISORY AT
WORST. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIP TO BE MAINLY RAIN. SUFFICE TO SAY AS IT STANDS
RIGHT NOW, WARNING CRITERIA LOOKS OUT OF REACH, BUT WE WILL WAIT
TO GET PAST THE CURRENT WINTER WX EVENT BEFORE ENTERTAINING A NEW
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
NC INCLUDING THE SMOKIES AND NANTAHALA MOUNTAINS, BUT THAT'S THE
DIRECTION THE FORECAST IS HEADING.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INTEREST, GIVEN
THE CONSISTENT GFS DEPICTION OF SNOW POTENTIAL, BUT A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE, THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL DEEPEN
SATURDAY TO OUR WEST AS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIVES DOWN TO AMPLIFY
THE TROF, WHICH IS A DEVELOPMENT THAT GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH. THE
RESULTING SW FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET BACK TO
NORMAL, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THE UPPER TROF AXIS EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT'S WHEN
THINGS GET INTERESTING IF YOU PREFER THE GFS, WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME
DECENT CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH DEVELOPING A STRIPE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO GREATLY IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC-LOOKING
SHORT WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE
COLD AIR COMING OVER THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHAT
IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUN HAS CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH HAVING SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE AREA
EAST OF THE MTNS TO THE POINT WHERE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD BE
PUSHING WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE
ENSEMBLE NOT BEING DISPERSIVE ENOUGH. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN HAS MOST OF ITS PRECIP JUST TO OUR EAST WITH MUCH LESS
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE, WITH ONLY TWO OR THREE MEMBERS GIVING
SNOW OVER OUR EAST. WE AWAIT THE NEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE, BUT THAT MODEL
HAS BEEN MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC FOR OUR WINTER WEATHER PROSPECTS AND
HAS CONSISTENTLY HAD THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE. SO,
AS ENTICING AS THE GFS/GEFS LOOKS, CAUTION IS ADVISED TO MANAGE
EXPECTATIONS BECAUSE CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL MORE SUPPORT
IS GARNERED FROM THE OTHER MODEL ENSEMBLES. OFFICIALLY, THE MODEL
BLEND HAS SLOWLY MOVED IN THE DIRECTION OF INCLUDING SOME PRECIP
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE FOR SUNDAY MORNING, FALLING
AS SOME COMBO OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. EITHER WAY, TEMPS WILL COOL OFF BACK TO
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 5: ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG WAVE MOVING PAST SUNDAY, WE SHOULD REMAIN
AT THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP LONG WAVE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS THAT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
DAYS. ALTHO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH THAT WIND CHILL TEMPS COULD BE DOWN CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF INTERMITTENT DESCENT TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KAVL,
AS GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.
THESE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS (AS HIGH AS
35KTS AT KAVL), PERSISTING WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND ONLY
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. A ROUND OF FEW/SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY DEVELOP AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, TRANSLATING EAST
BY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH GENERALLY SKC CONDITIONS SHOULD ROUND
OUT THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TOGGLE AROUND TO
THE SW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS (EXCEPT AT KAVL,
WHERE THEY'LL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY WNW), BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
058-059-062-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048>052-
058.
SC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
MPR/PM
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