980
FXUS62 KGSP 052342
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA.
2. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. MAKE
SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
AIR CONDITIONING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO CREEP UPWARD ON
SUNDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
STORMS AND WE RETAIN SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT MAY STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR
ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS 2500-3500 J/KG
OF SFC-BASED CAPE AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THERE MIGHT NOT BE
AS MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION, BUT A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
ANTICYLCONE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 70S AND 80S. HAVE CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH WILL STILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL WITH
HEAT INDICES OVER 100, A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST DAY, POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
MODIFIES AND PATTERN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RETURNING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY, IT
GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF MOVING
PAST LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHORT-CIRCUITS THE WARMUP.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S TSRA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN THE VICINITY OF KAVL AND HAVE KEPT IFR RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THE LOWER CIGS/VSBY MAY BE
FURTHER DOWN THE VALLEY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA AND
HAVE KEPT PROB30 THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH LINGERING VCSH
FOR KCLT IN THE OUT PERIODS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP DURING THOSE OUTPERIODS AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KCLT. WINDS VFR OVERNIGHT, TRENDING N TO NE, BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE ENE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLY SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/TDP
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