753
FXUS62 KGSP 162353
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1:05 PM EDT TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE: WARMING TREND CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THRU THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS TEM-
PERATURES REBOUND FROM THEIR WELL-BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE PAST
FEW DAYS. DEWPTS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT THE PERSISTENT S TO SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP THEM IN-
CREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND MORE SO TOMORROW. NONETHELESS,
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NE GEORGIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY TO REACH THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE NC PIEDMONT
REMAINING COOLER THAN MOST OF OUR UPSTATE COUNTIES AND OUR NE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS EARLY WED ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-
OUT NEAR FREEZING, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW, FOR MOST SITES. HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND, WITH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA. DEWPTS SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY/EVENING WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30% FOR MOST ZONES TOMORROW. WE COULD
SEE SOME LOW-END WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT, BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL JET CAN EFFECTIVELY MIX DOWN TO
THE SFC. IN ADDITION, THE JET APPEARS STRONGER JUST TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL HELP CARVE OUT A
POTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN AND TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ROBUST WIND FIELDS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL ADVECT A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1".
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PIEDMONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS TO THE DEGREE OF
COVERAGE, BUT AMPLE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST LIKELY
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE
RECOVERY APPEARS TO REMAIN LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH IS GOOD AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE
RATHER CONCERNING OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR LATE DECEMBER. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY IN
THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
MOST FAVORABLE RIDGES. ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM TUESDAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH UNCERTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY AS
THE PREVIOUS TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A BROAD/FLAT TROUGH
EVOLVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, BUT
THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND FORCING ARE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS NUDGED SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, BUT THE TIMING AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
AS IT WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS, COMBINED
WITH AN OVERALL DEARTH OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT, CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO
MAINTAIN WETTER SOLUTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS OF 7-9 KT PERSIST AT A FEW SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME,
THOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST DECOUPLING IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE PERIOD, SO MENTIONED ONLY
LIGHT WINDS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS, WHICH WILL ALSO SUGGEST ONLY SHALLOW
MIXING IN LOWER ELEVATIONS; HIGHER ALTITUDES COULD EXPERIENCE
LLWS CONDITIONS, THOUGH NO MENTION APPEARS WARRANTED IN ANY TAF.
CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT WITH LARGELY BKN CIGS ABOVE
FL200 FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING SW FLOW MAY BRING IN
LOWER VFR CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE TERMINAL AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THU BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ADDING
A MENTION FOR KCLT; SAID CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTN AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JCW
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