217
AXPQ20 PGUM 120054
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1054 AM CHST FRI JUN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER'S (JTWC)
INVEST 92W, IS CENTERED ESE OF MAJURO NEAR 5.5N 175.8E. INVEST 92W
IS CURRENTLY RATED SUB-LOW, MEANING IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
92W IS SEEN ALONG THE E PORTION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET)
FOUND OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA. CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH 92W, WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS FOUND NEAR THE CENTER, THOUGH THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
OTHERWISE, STRONGER CONVERGENCE FARTHER N OF THE CIRCULATION IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 8N AND 12N. THIS AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TRADE-WIND
TROUGH PASSING N OF 92W. INVEST 92W LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE WNW OVER THE
COMING DAYS, WITH LITTLE OR NO INITIAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INVEST 92W WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE NET STRETCHES E FROM NEAR 7N150E TO INVEST 92W, THEN TURNS SE,
CROSSING THE DATE LINE NEAR 3N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE
FAR W END OF THE NET, SW OF WENO, CHUUK. OTHERWISE, ONLY SPOTTY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE FOUND ACROSS CHUUK, POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES.
E OF KOSRAE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG AND S OF
THE NET TO INVEST 92W. THE NET LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
APPROACHING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS LOOK TO INTERACT WITH THE NET,
INCREASING CONVECTION AT TIMES.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGHS IS SEEN N OF THE NET. THE FIRST
EXTENDS NW FROM JUST NW OF POHNPEI NEAR 8N157E TO END NEAR 14N154E.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE NET NEAR WENO, CHUUK.
THE NEXT TROUGH IS FOUND BETWEEN KOSRAE AND KWAJALEIN, EXTENDING NNW
FROM NEAR 8N168E TO END NEAR 13N163E. LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE NET
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES POHNPEI AND KOSRAE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
THE LAST TROUGH IS FOUND E OF MAJURO, EXTENDING N FROM INVEST 92W TO
END NEAR 12N176E. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE N OF THE NET,
N OF INVEST 92W, PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 8N AND 12N. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT MOVES W, MAINTAINING CONVECTION N OF
THE NET.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 25N140E, STRETCHING W TO BEYOND
130E NEAR 24N. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. E OF 133E, A BAND
OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE S OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N133E, NE BEYOND 25N NEAR THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
KLEESCHULTE
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