295
AXPQ20 PGUM 120000
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 AM CHST WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A BUFFER CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED SOMEWHAT, BUT ENOUGH TO BE
LABELED INVEST 91W BY JTWC. THIS CIRCULATION NOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR
3N142E, WITH WESTERLIES NOTED BENEATH IT MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP.
WITH THAT SAID, THE MODELS (MAINLY THE GFS) MOVE IT WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE WIND FIELDS WEAKENING AROUND IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH NO STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. UNTIL THEN, WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WITH PERIODIC BURSTS OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, EVIDENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS (SOME HEAVY GIVEN CLOUD
TOPS PUSHING -80C) AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NET EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST FROM EQ148E TO INVEST 91W BEFORE
EXITING GUAM'S AOR AT 6N130E. THIS TROUGH DENOTES THE LEADING EDGE
OF INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS. THEN, AS 91W STARTS TO WEAKEN, CONVECTION SHOULD DROP BACK
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 91W EXITS OUR
REGION.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE TRADES STRETCHES FROM NEAR NUKUORO AT
4N155E TO BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI BEFORE ENDING NEAR 10N156E.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND NEAR THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE TROUGH HEADS WEST.
TUTT...
A NEWLY-FORMED TUTT ENTERS GUAM'S AOR AT 25N180, WHERE A CELL IS
LOCATED, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER CELL AT 20N174E. THE
TUTT AXIS THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWEST, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS IT
REACHES POHNPEI NEAR 7N158E, CONTINUING WEST THROUGH CHUUK TO JUST
NORTH OF YAP, EXITING GUAM'S AOR AT 15N130E. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER, AIDED BY DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUTT AXIS,
WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED IN AS WELL NEAR MAJURO, AND WEST OF 145E
IN THE AREAS OF DIVERGENCE (SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AXIS).
THE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS FEATURE AND SHOW THE TUTT
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHILE AIDING IN CONVECTION IN A SIMILAR FASHION.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ HAS FRAGMENTED AND EXTENDS FROM 147E TO 158E, WITH JUST
NORTHEASTBY FLOW EAST OF THERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH,
AS ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DATE LINE WILL FORCE A
CONVERGENT FLOW TO REFORM ALONG ITS EASTWARD EXTENSION. ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM TROUGHS EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL REINFORCE THIS
PROCESS, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DOLL
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