289
AXPQ20 PGUM 142350
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
950 AM CHST SUN MAR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
SURFACE TROUGHS...
AS EXPECTED, A TRAILING SHEAR LINE LINE HAS MERGED WITH A
VIGOROUS SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST FROM EQ133E TO
EAST OF THE MARIANAS AT 15N150E. THIS TROUGH THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, WHERE IT EXITS GUAM'S AOR
AT 25N163E. WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CONGESTUS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE TO
ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS COMMON FROM
THE MARIANAS NORTHEASTWARD. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG AND WITHIN
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES BEHIND OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 15 TO 20 NOT
RANGE, WITH A POCKET OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED NORTHWEST OF
THE CNMI. THESE WINDS INDICATE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, IT'S TAKING LONGER FOR THE SEAS TO REFLECT THIS, AS
ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET ALONG AND WITHIN 300 MILES
OF THE FRONT INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 18 FOOT RANGE THE FURTHER
NORTHWEST YOU GO, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 16N AND WEST OF 150E.
THE SHEAR LINE WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A REMNANT SHEAR LINE HAS PERSISTING INTO THIS THIRD DAY SINCE IT
REAPPEARED. IT STRETCHES FROM 9N180 THROUGH MAJURO, BEFORE CURVING
NORTHWEST TO ENEWETAK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS GETTING
A BOOST FROM A NORTHWARD-LIFTING AND WEAKENING ITCZ. ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS SHEAR LINE, SCATTERED SHOWERS (LOCALLY NUMEROUS NEAR
MAJURO) ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 MILES OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROBABLY STICK AROUND ANOTHER DAY OR SO, GIVEN ITS
PERSISTENCE.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ IS MERELY SHOWING UP IN THE STREAM LINES TODAY, HAVING
LOST ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTION DIRECTLY TIED TO IT. STILL, IT
STRETCHES FROM KOSRAE EASTWARD TO THE DATE LINE AND BEYOND, WITH
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG IT. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE THE CASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT VERY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH.
DOLL
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