447
AXPQ20 PGUM 090026
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1026 AM CHST FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL CYCLONES...
KOGUMA WAS UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT. AT 7 AM, TY KOGUMA WAS
LOCATED 625 MILES W OF WAKE ISLAND, CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 157.1E,
MOVING WNW AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85
MPH THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 170 MILES E THROUGH S OF THE CENTER,
AND WITHIN 130 MILES W THROUGH N. A FEEDER BAND WRAPPING INTO KOGUMA
IS FOUND FROM UP TO 200 MILES WNW OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING IN AN ARC
UP TO 430 MILES ESE. TY KOGUMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW,
SLOWLY TURNING NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TY KOGUMA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, INCREASING TO AROUND 130 MPH SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD
MAKE KOGUMA A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TY KOGUMA, PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS ISSUED
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN33 PGTW AND
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ33 PGUM.
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, INVEST 95W, IS FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH SW OF GUAM NEAR 12.5N 143.5E. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITH 95W FROM 141E TO 144E.
INVEST 95W IS CURRENTLY RATED SUB-LOW, MEANING DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS OVER THE
AREA DO NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF 95W FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. INVEST 95W LOOKS TO DRIFT N OVER THE COMING DAYS AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 12N130E, EXTENDING E TO
INVEST 95W, WHERE IT TURNS NE TO TY KOGUMA. THE TROUGH THEN TURNS
ESE, CROSSING THE DATE LINE NEAR 11N. CONVERGENCE S OF THE TROUGH
FROM INVEST 95W WESTWARD, CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W TO N OF PALAU, TO JUST
S OF YAP, ENDING S OF INVEST 95W. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVERGENCE IS
FOUND S OF KOGUMA FROM 150E TO 159E BETWEEN 10N AND 14N. THIS BAND OF
CONVERGENCE WILL DRIFT WNW AS KOGUMA CONTINUES IN THAT DIRECTION.
WELL SE OF KOGUMA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE TROUGH TO
BEYOND THE DATE LINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MARSHALLS
IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER KWAJALEIN AND
MAJURO. E OF THE MARIANAS, THE MONSOON TROUGH LOOKS TO DRIFT WNW TO
NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND STRENGTHEN AS TY KOGUMA MOVES
WNW AND STRENGTHENS.
SURFACE TROUGHS...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND N OF KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO, EXTENDING ESE
FROM NEAR 11N168E TO 7N174E. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS, INCLUDING
KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ENE TO NE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PULLING THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH IT.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS FOUND WELL W OF THE MARIANAS, EXTENDING
S FROM NEAR 20N137E TO END NEAR 13N136E. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITH THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING W, EXITING THE REGION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.
KLEESCHULTE
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