254
AXPQ20 PGUM 210039
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1039 AM CHST THU NOV 21 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT EASTWARD
ALONG 20N TO 140E, BEFORE IT BECOMES A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT
STRETCHED NORTHEAST IN AN ARCING FORM TO 25N 145.3E, THEN TURNING
NORTH TO A LOW EXITING THE COAST OF JAPAN. ONLY A THIN LINE OF
CLOUDS ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PORTION,
WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SHEAR LINE. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD JOURNEY WHILE WEAKENING, LIKELY INTO A SHEAR LINE, WITH
THE TAIWAN SHEAR LINE LIKELY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS INTEGRITY.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM GUAM'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WON'T BE A CONCERN
BEYOND 24 HOURS. UNTIL THEN, WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS.
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE TRADES EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHUUK
NORTHEASTWARD, ENDING SOME 600 MILES EAST OF THE MARIANAS. ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD JOURNEY.
A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RMI, THROUGH
MAJURO AND TO ITS NORTH. THIS IS THE TROUGH TO WATCH AS THE
MODELS SHOW RAPID AMPLIFICATION AND MOISTURE INGEST AS IT HEADS
WEST TOWARDS POHNPEI OVER THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS, WITH A FOURTH
TROUGH CROSSING THE DATE LINE AND REACHING MAJURO IN THE NEXT 60
TO 72 HOURS (BY SATURDAY.
THIS FOURTH TROUGH IS ALREADY AMPLIFIED WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG IT, AND THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN THE CASE AS IT
REACHES MAJURO BY SATURDAY.
DOLL
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