813
AXPQ20 PGUM 150048
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1048 AM CHST WED JAN 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NONE.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 3N127E
TO ENTER MICRONESIA NEAR 2N130E TO EQ131E. TRADE-WIND FLOW
CONVERGING INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF YAP ISLAND AND NEAR,
SOUTH AND WEST OF KOROR. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
RETREAT TO THE WEST OUTSIDE OF MICRONESIA BY THURSDAY.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH CURVES FROM EQ145E TO 3N139E. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN FAR SOUTHERN YAP STATE.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF
INTENSITY.
TRADE-WIND SURGE...
THE TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY, BUT HAS GROWN IN
AREA. IT NOW COVERS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS, KOSRAE STATE,
POHNPEI STATE, CHUUK STATE AND NORTHEASTERN YAP STATE, AND THE
SOUTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE MARIANAS, AT LEAST GUAM AND ROTA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE SURGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND NEAR
KOSRAE. THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER LOCATION
OR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OTHER SYSTEMS...
A SHEAR LINE CUTS FROM 25N174E TO CROSS THE MARIANAS NEAR ANATAHAN AT
AROUND 16N146E TO 12N130E AND FARTHER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. EXTENSIVE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY TO BEYOND 25N. THE WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE ARE
ONLY FRESH NOW, SO IT IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
LOCATION.
STANKO
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