830
AXPQ20 PGUM 230104
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1104 AM CHST SAT MAY 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A CIRCULATION 300 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG IT'S WESTERN FLANK. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE
PHILIPPINES IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
INVEST 99W (CURRENTLY RATED "SUB-LOW" BY JTWC) NEAR 8N145E, OR
ROUGHLY 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP, IS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND THE STRONGER EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. WHILE
THERE IS MORE CONVECTION NEAR THE POTENTIAL CENTER THAN YESTERDAY,
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF 99W. AS THE WEAKER OF THE
TWO, THIS IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH 99W BUT MAY IMPACT
THE TRACK OF 99W AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND 99W IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST
TOWARDS YAP.
INVEST 90W HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AT 2N164E. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED CENTER. 90W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE NET ENTERS GUAM'S AOR AT 6N130E AND EXTENDS EAST THROUGH THE
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KOROR. IT THEN CONTINUES EAST THROUGH
INVEST 99W BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND ENDING AT ROUGHLY EQ160E,
JUST SOUTHWEST OF 90W. SPORADIC CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE NET WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH. OVERALL, THE NET LOOKS TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A TROUGH IN THE TRADES EXTENDING NORTH OF 99W IS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS, BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.
A SECOND TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK FOLLOWS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
FIRST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MARIANAS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
FURTHER SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH TO 6N AND EXTENDS FROM MAJURO AT
171E TO THE DATE LINE AND BEYOND. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VISIBLE ALONG THE WHOLE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OGLE
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