759
AXPQ20 PGUM 230109
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1109 AM CHST WED JUL 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL CYCLONES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY (AOR) NEAR 20.5N, 130.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
HAS WINDS OF 30 KNOTS AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10W IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AS
IT EXITS OUR REGION. NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MARIANAS OR MICRONESIA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN32 PGTW AND FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM.
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE KNOWN AS JTWC INVEST 98W IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 11.3N, 149.1E. INVEST 98W REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED
WITH NO CLEAR CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE DAY CLOUD PHASE DISTINCTION
PRODUCT DOES SHOW A DEVELOPING BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS
FEATURE IS ALSO APPARENT ON THE MIMIC TPW V2. INVEST 98W IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER GUAM OR ROTA AS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, BUT IS
FORECASTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. JTWC RATES INVEST 98W AS MEDIUM, WHICH MEANS THAT
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED BEYOND 24 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO INVEST 98W.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION AT 20.5N, 130E, OR WHERE TD 10W
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO 9N149E. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN WHERE
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE TRADE-WINDS CONVERGE, JUST SOUTH OF THE
MARIANAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
INVEST 98W TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MARIANAS.
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF WENO AND NORTHWEST OF
POHNPEI, OR FROM 9N155E TO 14N156E. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG THIS TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD BEFORE MERGING WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE WEST.
TUTT...
A TUTT ENTERS OUR REGION AT 25N155E AND THEN SPLITS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TO 12N147E AND EASTWARD TO 25N165E. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEEN
ALONG THE TUTT. THE TUTT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECASTED TO
WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE COMING DAYS.
..ITCZ
THE ITCZ HAS WEAKENED AND FRAGMENTED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
OVER THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE ACTIVITY IS SEEN ALONG THE REMNANTS OF
THE ITCZ LOCATED OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
WILLIAMS
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