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FGMY70 PGUM 021445
ESFGUM
GUC010-MPC100-110-120-031400-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1245 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2026
...TROPICAL STORM BAVI TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE
POTENTIAL TO THE MARIANAS BEGINNING SUNDAY...
THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS FOR GUAM, ROTA, TINIAN, AND SAIPAN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (09W) IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MARIANAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE ISLANDS AS A STRONG
CATEGORY 4, OR CATEGORY 5, TYPHOON.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING POTENTIAL RAINFALL IMPACTS, BUT
EARLY MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THIS WILL PRODUCE 6
TO 11 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 15
INCHES NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS BAVI
LOOKS TO CROSS THE MARIANAS SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BAVI
WILL BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED AND ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL, AS WELL AS
FORECAST TRACK AND TIME OF ARRIVAL, MAY CHANGE.
AS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, CONSISTENT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND SATURATE THE SOILS ENOUGH TO INCREASE CHANCE
FOR MUDSLIDES.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AS FLOOD WATCHES, ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COULD
BE ISSUED LATER.
IF LIVING NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS, PREPARE TO MOVE ITEMS AWAY FROM
STREAM AND RIVER BANKS. MAKE SURE STORM DRAINS NEARBY ARE NOT
CLOGGED, ESPECIALLY IF LIVING AT LOW-LYING AREAS.
DD
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