200
FXPQ50 PGUM 070859
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
659 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING, A HIGH SURF WARNING, AND A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY BLOW OFF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER MOST
OF THE MARIANAS WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN GUAM AND ROTA WATERS.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST IN
SOUTHWESTERN GUAM WATERS. ALTIMETRY SHOWS 14 TO 18 FOOT SEAS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND TANAPAG BUOY SHOWS 15 FOOT SEAS AT 12.5
SECONDS.
DISCUSSION
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE SEEN MOVING NORTHWARD APPROACHING GUAM,
HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS ARE LOOKING TO STAY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE WAKE OF TYPHOON BAVI, FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THEN THE
MARIANAS IS ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO A BIT DRIER REGIME FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THE SWELL IS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS IT IS BEING
PRODUCED BY TYPHOON BAVI. THIS SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS THAT ARE
DANGEROUS TO SMALL CRAFT OPERATIONS. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS OR TO STAY IN PORT. SEAS MAY FALL BELOW
DANGEROUS LEVELS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAZARDOUS LEVELS AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT SWELL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
TYPHOON BAVI (09W) CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.
CURRENTLY, IT'S LOCATED NEAR 17N138E, HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14
MPH. BAVI BRIEFLY WEAKENED TO A TYPHOON, BUT, IT'S FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. IT'S ALSO EXPECTED TO MAKE A BRIEF
TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. VERY GOOD, SYMMETRIC,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WITH BAVI, WITH A STRONG MONSOON TROUGH
INFLOW AS WELL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 300 MILES
FROM THE LLCC, WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTENDING TO 115 MILES. AS
YOU'D EXPECT, INTENSE CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF STY
(SUPER TYPHOON) BAVI, WITH A STRONG MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WEST OF PALAU, THROUGH PALAU AND YAP BEFORE CURVING NORTH INTO IT.
FURTHER EAST WE HAVE INVEST 97W (CURRENTLY RATED AS "SUB-LOW"
FROM JTWC), WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF MAJURO. CURRENTLY, A SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED CIRCULATION IS NOTED BETWEEN EBON IN THE RMI, AND
BUTARITARI, OR NEAR 4N171E. MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR
THIS FEATURE, EXCEPT ON ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE WHERE CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE MORE ROBUST. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW AND FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH A SLUGGISH TRADE WIND PATTERN AND WEAK FEATURES.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE TIMING OF WEAK TROUGHS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE ISLANDS THAT WILL INCITE EPISODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE NEAR TERM, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR KOSRAE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A BROAD MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED CIRCULATION DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ADVANCE WESTWARD DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN MAINTENANCE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLIES OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. TRADES REMAIN WEAKER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
A BROAD MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED TROUGH ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE (AS NOTED ABOVE) WILL BRING A PERIOD NORTHERLIES FOR CHUUK
DURING MIDWEEK TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHERLIES LATER THIS WEEK AS THIS
FEATURE ADVANCES WESTWARD. MAINTAINED A CONSENSUS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM.
FOR YAP AND PALAU, HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURF WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WESTERLIES AND AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE AN APPEARANCE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROUGHING LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
TROPICAL: DOLL
EAST/WEST MICRONESIA: FOSTER
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