490  
FXPQ50 PGUM 250530  
AFDGUM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
330 PM CHST TUE JUN 25 2019  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEATHER IS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A  
VERY FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS, AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS. COMBINED  
SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET AT THE BUOYS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE  
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING WED NIGHT IS STILL IN THE  
MODELS, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY  
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT  
IS LEFT INTACT, BUT MODEL SUPPORT IS WEAKER THAN BEFORE, KEEPING  
MOST OF THE MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
COMBINED SEAS WILL DECLINE SLOWLY THE NEXT 5 DAYS, FROM 4-6 FT  
TONIGHT TO 3-4 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. RIP RISK SHOULD BE  
MODERATE ALONG EAST FACING REEFS, BUT COULD DROP TO LOW EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NOT MUCH RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRYNESS IS EXPECTED FOR A WHILE,  
UNLESS SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE THAN  
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE  
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE-RELATED WATCHES OR WARNINGS.  
 

 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUUK, POHNPEI AND KOSRAE  
STATES WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AND A TROPICAL  
DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF KOSRAE NEAR 3N162E. RELATIVELY DRY  
TRADES PREVAIL AT MAJURO, BUT SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE  
NORTHERN RMI. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE DRIER FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM  
EAST TO WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, THEN ANOTHER TRADE-WIND SURGE  
COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS LATER THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, WEATHER AND  
WINDS WILL BE CHANGEABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WHILE THE TROUGH AND  
DISTURBANCE ARE NEARBY.  
 

 
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION IS CENTERED AT  
ABOUT 4N144E AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN AROUND THE CIRCULATION,  
MAINLY OVER WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND OVER EASTERN YAP STATE TO JUST  
SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND KOROR. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT  
AND INDICATE THE CIRCULATION WILL EDGE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH SLOW  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEST FEW DAYS. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE  
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS NEARBY,  
AND PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE  
CIRCULATION MOVES PAST THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS, THEN NORTHWEST INTO  
THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY ABOUT FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...NONE.  
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON  
 
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