308
FXPQ50 PGUM 110744
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
544 PM CHST TUE NOV 11 2025
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SMALL SHORT-LIVED
FAST-MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF ABOUT
7 FEET WHILE BUOY DATA SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET.
DISCUSSION
PEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SHORT-LIVED FAST-MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TOO.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH HE
WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET MADE UP OF A WEAKENING TRADE
SWELL, A STRENGTHENING NORTH SWELL AND A PERSISTENT WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH VARYING STRENGTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN A STATE OF FLUX
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS AT TIMES, HOWEVER, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REAMING CHOPPY AS THESE SWELLS CONTINUE TO MIX. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WEST, NORTH, AND EAST
FACING REEFS OF THE MARIANAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF IS
EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BUT REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ALONG ALL
REEFS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
OVERALL, AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SITUATED BETWEEN 7N AND 11N. WITHIN THIS FEATURE
ARE A PAIR OF TROUGHS, ONE APPROACHING POHNPEI AND ANOTHER DEPARTING
MAJURO. ADDITIONAL TROUGHS ARE SEEN UPSTREAM (EAST OF THE DATE LINE)
AS WELL. THUS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT KOSRAE, AS THE ITCZ BEGINS TO SETTLE
SOUTH.
AS FOR WINDS AND SEAS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING CHUUK AND
PALAU WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS YAP. ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS COMBINED
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET FOR PALAU AND YAP, AND 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS
CHUUK.
OVERALL, AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
MICRONESIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO
BEGIN THIS WEEKEND. A BUFFER CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 1N142E IS THE
MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
BROAD AND WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE
BUFFER CIRCULATION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PALAU AND YAP THROUGH FRIDAY. NO
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF THE BUFFER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. FOR CHUUK, TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT SEVARL DAYS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP CHUUK IN PREDOMINATELY
ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH 40 TO 50 POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GREATLY ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED AT 5 PM CHST BASED ON ALTIMETRY
DATA AND SURF OBSERVATIONS. COMBINED SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BENIGN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
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