157
FXPQ50 PGUM 140734
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
534 PM CHST TUE JUL 14 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LOOKING ISOLATED AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE NORTH THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE
TONIGHT. BUOY AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FEET TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE TO THE NORTH,
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY STILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS HAS LOWERED
BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TROUGH GOES. THIS MONSOON PATTERN MAY SHIFT OUT OF THE
MARIANAS LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRYER AIR AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT THREE
NIGHTS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DURING THE DAY BEFORE
POTENTIALLY DECREASING FRIDAY. SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED
AT 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH STAYING MORE NORTH
OF THE MARIANAS. SWELLS CONSIST OF MAINLY A MONSOONAL SOUTHWEST SWELL
AND SMALL EAST AND WEST SWELLS. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WEEK AND THEREFORE A MODERATE RISK OF
LIGHTNING ALONG ALL REEFS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
INVEST 97W WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(TCFA) YESTERDAY BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC).
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENED OVERNIGHT AND
HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE TCFA BEING
CANCELLED BY JTWC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
LIKELY ENDS UP OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. A MONSOON SURGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORMER INVEST 98W PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF KOSRAE. BANDS OF CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TONIGHT WITH SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING
ISOLATED AT MAJURO. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT ALL FORECAST SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAJURO BEING
THE DRIEST OF THE THREE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY AT POHNPEI WITH KOSRAE BEING
ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGHER WINDS. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AT BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AT MAJURO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER
COVERAGE TOPPING OUT AT LOW-END SCATTERED.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS
THE CIRCULATION FORMERLY KNOWN AS INVEST 98W DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE WEST AND WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY AT
POHNPEI AND A LITTLE AT KOSRAE SINCE THEY WILL BE ON THE OUTER EDGES
OF THE INCREASING WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE AT BOTH SITES WITH PERIODS OF FRESH POSSIBLE DURING THE
SOUTHWEST BURST, ESPECIALLY AT POHNPEI. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MAJURO THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS CONSIST OF A WEST SWELL AT
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AND AN EAST SWELL AT MAJURO. A SMALL, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SWELL IS ALSO PRESENT THROUGHOUT ALL WATERS. OTHERWISE, A
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
A WET SEASON PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR PALAU AND YAP. THESE ISLANDS ARE
IN THE WESTERLY INFLOW NOTCH OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM FORMERLY
KNOWN AS INVEST 97W. 97W HAS OPENED IN TO A SURFACE TROUGH, THIS IS
WHAT IS KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED AT PALAU AND YAP AND SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. ONCE THIS TROUGH MOVES ON, A MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FOR CHUUK, A CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGIONS STARTING
AROUND WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING AT NUMEROUS AROUND THURSDAY. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN TO HIGH-END SCATTERED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
ALTIMETRY SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH OUT THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TO FRESH FOR PALAU AND YAP AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE FOR CHUUK. OVERALL, SEAS HAVE RETURNED TO BENIGN
CONDITIONS.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: OGLE
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT
WEST MICRONESIA: BOWSHER
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