636
FXPQ50 PGUM 170805
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
605 PM CHST TUE MAR 17 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
COMBINED SEAS OF 11 TO 12 FEET, AND IPAN BUOY DATA SHOWS 6 FEET AT
17 SECONDS.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, HIGH SURF ADVISORY, COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STATEMENTS.
DISCUSSION
A DRY SEASON REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TIME HEIGHTS AND LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAY POSSIBLY BE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE 10 TO 15 AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 BY THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LARGE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN AS WELL AS NORTHEAST SWELL FROM A
STRONG KONA LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HAWAI'I. MODERATE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RECENT ALTIMETRY PASSES
REVEAL COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 11 TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF
MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY RELAXING. SEAS MAY
FALL BELOW LEVELS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT (10 FEET) ON WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SURF OF AT LEAST 9 FEET ALONG NORTH REEFS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF HAS ALREADY FALLEN BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 9 FEET ALONG WEST AND 12 FEET ALONG EAST FACING
REEFS. COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTHERN SHORELINES OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDE.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MICRONESIA WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH-END ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MAJURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED NORTH OF THE ATOLL PROMOTES PERIODS ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK TRADE-
WIND PATTERN WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA THE BACK HALF
OF THE WEEK AND THIS WILL HELP TO STALL THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD
TROUGHING TO AROUND KOSRAE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL FORECAST POINTS THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TRADE-WIND PATTERN TRIES TO ESTABLISH.
A LONG-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY A KONA LOW NORTH OF
HAWAI'I LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST
OF JAPAN ARRIVES. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS
OF BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AND EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING SEAS AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET IN BETWEEN KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. ELEVATED SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND
EAST FACING REEFS OF MAJURO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET, THOUGH
SEAS MAY TOUCH 9 FEET TONIGHT AT POHNPEI BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 8
FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA AT THIS TIME
ARE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT DEGRADES INTO A TROUGH JUST EAST OF
CHUUK, AND PLENTY OF MID-LATITUDE DRY AIR BEHIND IT AT YAP AND KOROR,
AND NOW ALSO SOMEWHAT AT CHUUK, ALTHOUGH AT CHUUK THE AIR HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY THE TROPICAL OCEANS ALREADY.
CHUUK WILL EXPERIENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS, STARTING AT
NORTH AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO EAST. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN 5 TO 7
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH IS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
SUGGESTS CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING BENIGN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING
ELEVATED SWELLS, THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
YAP WILL RECEIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE 10 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT, 9 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY, 7
TO 9 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
CHALLENGING THROUGH FRIDAY, PERHAPS BECOMING BENIGN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECAUSE
OF THE LARGE SWELLS, AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KOROR, PALAU WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS JUST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT, 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, 5
TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY, AND 4 TO 6 FEET SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT, THEN CHALLENGING MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING BENIGN THURSDAY. BECAUSE
OF THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED, AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR
MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR
PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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