528
FXPQ50 PGUM 241940
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
540 AM CHST WED MAR 25 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE IPAN BUOY IS DOWN TO ABOUT 5.5 FEET.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
A TRADE-WIND TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS, GIVING
MAJURO MORE RAIN TODAY, WHILE POHNPEI AND KOSRAE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
MAJURO WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHICH ENDS ON SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL BOTH HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS BENIGN THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGHOUT ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
INFLUENCING WESTERN MICRONESIA. IT CURRENTLY RUNS NORTH OF KOROR,
PALAU, SOUTH OF YAP AND SOUTH OF CHUUK.
CHUUK WILL RECEIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5
FEET, WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND.
YAP WILL FIND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
KOROR, PALAU WILL GET SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS SUGGESTS BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN MICRONESIA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 617 PM CHST TUE MAR 24 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS THE MARIANAS, DRIVEN BY CONVERGENT
TRADE FLOW NORTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH. BUOY AND SURF OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A
STEADY DECREASE IN THE EASTERLY SWELL, ALLOWING TO SURF TO DECREASE
AND THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING REEFS TO BECOME
MODERATE. COMBINED SEAS ARE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET AND WINDS ARE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS REMAINS UNDER A BAND OF CONVERGENT TRADE FLOW NORTH OF
THE PERSISTENT NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) TO THE SOUTH AND THE
EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR YAP PROPER. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE NET WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD, WEAKENING THE TRADE CONVERGENCE AND LEADING TO AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL PERSISTING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK CIRCULATIONS OR
DISTURBANCES TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NET AND PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
MARIANAS, IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN
WILL LAST OR IF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY IF THE
NET DOES NOT SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS QUICKLY AS MODELS SUGGEST.
MARINE...
IPAN BUOY NEAR GUAM HAS SHOWN A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN THE
EASTERLY SWELL, DECREASING SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS AND ALLOW
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO DROP FROM HIGH TO MODERATE ALONG EAST
FACING REEFS. SEAS HAVE DECREASED AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND
4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE EASTERLY SWELL
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDES. FRESH WINDS AND SOME GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AND BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONVERGENT FLOW ACROSS MARIANAS, BEING
DRIVEN BY A PERSISTENT NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH, WILL BRING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE MARIANAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS CONVERGENT FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS WEEK AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RELATIVELY
DRIER PATTERN LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT PULSE OF
NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
WHILE SURF MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS, SURF IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 9 FEET.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FEET. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG ILL-DEFINED TROUGHS IN THE FLOW. MEANWHILE, MAJURO
REMAINS IN WHAT IS A MOISTURE CONFLUENCE AXIS, ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO BE RETAINED IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AS THE
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN FOR EASTERN
MICRONESIA THIS WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE REGIONS REMAINS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
(NET) WITH AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATION (WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT). THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP PROPER'S COASTAL WATERS. THE NET EXTENDED TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO BEYOND 3N155E AND OUT OF WESTERN MICRONESIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN AT YAP PROPER AND ALONG NORTHERN HALF OF THE
DISTURBANCE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS,
YAP PROPER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A DRY SEASON PATTERN.
PALAU IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME LINGERING ISLAND EFFECTS SHOWER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THEY
WILL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AS THE SUNSETS. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, PALAU CAN ANTICIPATE A VISIT FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FUZZY ON THE EXTENT OF HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE, HOWEVER, IN GENERAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE THE THIS
FEATURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, A RETURN TO A DRIER
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED.
CHUUK LIES ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW AND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD DISTURBANCE NEAR YAP PROPER WITHIN
THE NET. THIS CONVERGENCE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CHUUK'S
REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ONCE THIS CONVERGENCE LINE MOVES FURTHER
WEST, A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE MOST ELEVATED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE NEAR YAP
PROPER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LOT OF SUN GLINT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MICRONESIA, WHICH SUGGESTS THE
OCEAN IS MOSTLY FLAT. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR
MUCH OF THE DOMAIN, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NEAR THE DISTURBANCE.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: STANKO
MARIANAS: SCHANK
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: BOWSHER
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