318
FXPQ50 PGUM 272122
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
722 AM CHST WED JAN 28 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
THE KBDI IS DOWN TO 267 AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF PUNISHMENT FROM THE
SHEAR LINE. THAT KEEPS THE FIRE DANGER LOW FOR TODAY, AND PROBABLY
THURSDAY AT LEAST AS WELL, AT A MINIMUM. THE SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO
CAUSE MORE SHOWERS FOR THE CNMI THAN GUAM THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
CORRECTLY FORESAW THIS AND HAD SCATTERED FOR GUAM AND NUMEROUS FOR
THE CNMI. FOR NOW THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE CNMI SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT AND MAKE
SURE THAT TREND HOLDS. IF IT DOES, WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO UPDATE TO
LOWER THE POPS. MAYBE IT SHOULD'VE BEEN ISOLATED FOR GUAM AND
SCATTERED FOR THE CNMI AS THE SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THE
GENERAL TREND WAS DEFINITELY ON TRACK THOUGH, SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED YESTERDAY, AND FROM WHAT I
COULD SEE WITH HARDLY ANY BUOYS, THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COAST WITH NO ADVISORIES FOR A COUPLE DAYS, THEN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT SHEAR LINE COMES DOWN, MAKING
IT FAIRLY LIKELY WE WILL NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GEFSWAVE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS 50 PERCENT CHANCE, THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF0P25WAVE
HAS SMALL CRAFT WAVE CONDITIONS IN IT WITH SEAS HITTING 10 FT.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
SURF ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE YESTERDAY, WITH A
'NEAR HAZARDOUS SURF' HEADLINE INCLUDED IN MAJURO'S FORECAST,
NOTING THE ELEVATED SEAS AND SURF FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PROBABLY
WON'T LAST TOO LONG, WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT ONE THOUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING, HOWEVER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPRUNG UP NEAR KOSRAE THAT MAY BEAR WATCHING FOR
THE DAY SHIFT.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
WESTERN MICRONESIA IS PRETTY DRY THIS MORNING, ONLY CHUUK REALLY HAS
ANY SHOWERS. THIS MATCHED SATELLITE WELL, SO NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 522 PM CHST TUE JAN 27 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN,
ALONG WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SLOW-MOVING RAIN COMPLEXES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS ROTA, TINIAN AND SAIPAN. IPAN BUOY SHOWS SEAS ARE
ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET IN EASTERN GUAM WATERS.
DISCUSSION...
THE SHEARLINE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, HAS SETTLED ITSELF SQUARELY OVER THE
CNMI, PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTA, TINIAN AND SAIPAN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME, GUAM WILL DODGE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS
AND OBSERVE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH PATCHY SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS THE SHEARLINE WEAKENS FURTHER AND FRAGMENTS, LOCALIZED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE MARIANAS, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHEARLINE DESCENDING TO THE AREA TOWARD THE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET IN CNMI WATERS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET
NEAR GUAM, ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SEA
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED STEADILY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER POSE A HAZARD
TO SMALL CRAFT IN ROTA, TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS AT THIS TIME. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS CRITERIA OF 10 FEET AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE POTENTIALLY BECOMING HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MORE
PULSES OF NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SWELL MAKE IT TO THE REGION.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FAIRLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE-WIND PATTERN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH A SERIES OF TRADE-WIND TROUGHS BETWEEN KOSRAE AND MAJURO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WEST OF
MAJURO. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) IS SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE BUT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY SPOTTY ALONG THE TROUGH AND AROUND
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. AS TRADE-WIND TROUGHS BETWEEN KOSRAE AND MAJURO
SHIFT WESTWARD, THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE
NET, INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS KOSRAE TONIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO
POHNPEI WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO THAT
WILL THEN EXTEND INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO
BUILD THIS WEEKEND, CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A FEW FEET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS A LONG-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS AND
NORTHEAST SWELL BY THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SURF UP TO 9 FEET ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS OF
POHNPEI WEDNESDAY AND AT KOSRAE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SURF WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING
REEFS OF MAJURO, BUT SURF IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 9 FEET ALONG WEST FACING REEFS AND 12 FEET ALONG
NORTH FACING REEFS. NEXT FOCUS IS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE SURGE IN THE
TRADE WINDS THAT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OF SEAS
AROUND 10 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 22 KT, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
THIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
NORTHEAST SWELL, ELEVATING SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS
ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP, WITH THE LATEST WAVE DATA
SHOWING SURF HAS LIKELY SUBSIDED BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AS WELL.
THUS, THE ADVISORIES FOR NORTH FACING REEFS OF PALAU AND YAP HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASING SOMEWHAT FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AT PALAU AND YAP, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT CHUUK, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: STANKO
MARIANAS: MONTVILA
EASTERN MICRONESIA: SCHANK
WESTERN MICRONESIA: DOLL
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