581
FXPQ50 PGUM 132010
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
610 AM CHST TUE APR 14 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU IS EAST OF GUAM AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
SPREADING ACROSS THE MARIANAS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH AND
GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, LIKELY PEAKING TONIGHT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS GUAM AND THE CNMI AS RAIN BANDS
WITH SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANAS. IPAN BUOY SHOWS
SEAS ARE AROUND 23 FEET WHILE TANAPAG IS AROUND 16 FEET. ALTIMETRY
SHOWS SEAS ARE 25 TO 35 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF SINLAKU, BUT SEAS MAY
BE EVEN HIGHER AND CLOSER TO 40 FEET.
DISCUSSION
SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN
THE MARIANAS, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 175 MPH. BASED ON THE
500 AM CHST RADAR FIX, SINLAKU WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 146.9E, ABOUT
145 MILES EAST GUAM AND 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
SINLAKU IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. SINLAKU LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LIKELY PASSING NEAR OR OVER
TINIAN AND SAIPAN TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE REPORTED GUSTS
UP TO 74 MPH (64 KNOTS) AT SAIPAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 59 MPH
(52 KNOTS) AT GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR GUAM, WITH ROTA POTENTIALLY
NEARING 70 MPH JUST BELOW TYPHOON CONDITIONS. FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN,
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING,
PEAKING BETWEEN 130 AND 155 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 175 MPH TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE MARIANAS CAN ALSO EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CNMI
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOUND
NEAR THE EYE WALL.
MARINE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AS SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU MOVES TOWARD TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST OVER AND NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN AS THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR SINLAKU HAS THE CENTER PASSING OVER OR NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST HAVING WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER BEING NEAR 125 TO 135 KT. IN ADDITION TO WINDS, SINLAKU
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
OF STY SINLAKU. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 18 TO 26 FT
FOR GUAM, 20 TO 30 FEET FOR ROTA, AND 30 TO 40 FEET FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SINLAKU MOVES THROUGH, THEN SLOWLY
DECREASING THEREAFTER. IPAN BUOY AT GUAM HAS SHOWN SEAS ARE REACHING
AROUND 20 TO 23 FEET ALREADY, WHILE TANAPAG BUOY NEAR SAIPAN IS
AROUND 16 FEET BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE SEAS ARE ALSO PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF, DEADLY RIP CURRENTS,
COASTAL INUNDATION AND BEACH EROSION ALONG NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES. ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND
TYPHOON WARNINGS, A HIGH SURF WARNING WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS AND A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVERYONE NEEDS TO AVOID THE COASTLINE
AND STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FALL BELOW
DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS LEVELS. DON'T BECOME A STATISTIC!
HYDROLOGY
THE ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (ETRAP) ESTIMATES FROM
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA THAT 15 TO 25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CENTER OF STY SINLAKU. WITH THE PAST FEW FORECASTS SUPPORTING PASSAGE
NEAR OR OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN, THESE ISLANDS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THAT RAINFALL. GUAM COULD STILL SEE A STORM TOTAL OF 6
TO 12 INCHES, WITH ROTA POTENTIALLY REACHING 10 TO 20 INCHES. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SO A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AS OF THE 500 AM CHST PGUA RADAR FIX, SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU WAS
CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 146.9E, ABOUT 145 MILES EAST GUAM AND 120 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. SINLAKU IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
TOWARD TINIAN AND SAIPAN. SINLAKU LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LIKELY PASSING NEAR OR OVER TINIAN AND
SAIPAN TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE REPORTED GUSTS UP TO 74
MPH (64 KNOTS) AT SAIPAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 59 MPH (52 KNOTS)
AT GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR GUAM, WITH ROTA POTENTIALLY NEARING 70
MPH JUST BELOW TYPHOON CONDITIONS. FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN, TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, PEAKING
BETWEEN 130 AND 155 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 175 MPH TONIGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW AND FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM AND WTPQ81
PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR HIGH SURF ALONG WESTERN REEFS AT POHNPEI. ALTIMETRY
COMPLETELY MISSED THAT AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE DIDN'T WANT TO RELY ON
JUST MODEL DATA, THUS THE NEED FOR AN EXTENSION. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
MAJURO, AS THAT REGION IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER CONVERGENCE.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AT
THUNDERSTORM AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN
MICRONESIA IN THE WAKE OF SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 10 TO 12 FEET ACROSS YAP AND CHUUK, AND 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS PALAU.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO LOW-
END (30%) SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA
IN THE WAKE OF SUPER TYPHOON SINLAKU. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET CONTINUE AT CHUUK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ALTIMETRY PASS FROM 09Z SHOWS 10 TO 12 FOOT SEAS HAVE REACHED YAP'S
COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SURF LOOKS TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHUUK AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR YAP.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ001.
TYPHOON WATCH FOR GUZ001.
MP...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
TYPHOON WARNING FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ151.
TYPHOON WATCH FOR PMZ151.
TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ152>154.
MARIANAS/TROPICAL/HYDROLOGY: SCHANK
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
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