915  
FXPQ50 PGUM 190845  
AFDGUM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
645 PM CHST TUE NOV 19 2019  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEATHER IS QUIET ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS EVENING, WITH MODERATE TO  
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND COMBINED  
SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS, PUNCUATED BY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY, AND AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER  
EVENT WILL BE THE SURGE IN TRADE WINDS THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING  
BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN A RENEWED SURGE IN THE TRADES  
WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL  
CRAFT, AND ALSO GENERATING HIGH SURF ALONG WINDWARD SHORES.  
 

 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
 
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE WIND SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF  
CHUUK AND POHNPEI. A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS  
ACROSS MAJURO WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF KOSRAE IS GENERATING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERALLY  
UNSETTLED TRADE-WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES  
OF TRADE-WIND SURGES WILL BRING FRESH TRADES TO MAJURO, POHNPEI AND  
CHUUK THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE REGION WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN  
7 AND 8 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED  
TRADES AND THE NORTH SWELL. HIGH SURF IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS  
WEEK AT CHUUK, POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. FOR NOW, WINDS AND SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO KEEP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT.  
 

 
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
 
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP THE LAST FEW DAYS  
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE  
FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE  
IS WELL NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR AND WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE  
REGION AND TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS YAP WITHIN THE CONVERGING SOUTHEAST  
WINDS INTO THE DISTURBANCE. RELATIVELY BETTER WEATHER IS SEEN AT  
KOROR, WHICH SITS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.  
 
MODERATE TRADES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS YAP ON WEDNESDAY AND PALAU ON  
THURSDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AT  
BOTH LOCATIONS, BUT A WETTER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL AND TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS  
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND  
WAVES WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET. HAZARDOUS  
SURF IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS SHOULD KEEP BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET.  
 

 
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...NONE.  
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT  
 
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