229
FXPQ50 PGUM 141927
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
527 AM CHST SUN FEB 15 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ROTA WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT TO
THE WEST, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERALL. A HIGH RIP
RISK CONTINUES ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH FREQUENT STRONG GUSTS AND SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, AFTER WHICH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 7 FEET AND WINDS
DECREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE BULK OF CONVECTION
IN THE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS POHNPEI
DUE TO TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHWESTERN POHNPEI STATE AND A
WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE EAST.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
DUE TO A DECREASING TREND IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE SURF REMAINS ELEVATED
ALONG NORTH-FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AND ALONG EAST-FACING
REEFS OF KOSRAE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEK,
THE TRADE SWELL BUILDS DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS, WHICH COULD BRING
HAZARDOUS SURF BACK TO EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE DUE TO ITS LOWER
THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN YAP
STATE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO YAP PROPER THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS PASSING SOUTH OF YAP PROPER TODAY AND MOVING
TOWARDS PALAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY SO
HAVE INCREASED SHOWERS TO 40 PERCENT FOR YAP AND INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN WATERS. KEPT THE PLAIN TEXT
HEADLINE FOR YAP TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COMBINED SEAS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, APPROACHING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 550 PM CHST SAT FEB 14 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH JUST A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. A HIGH RIP RISK
REMAINS FOR EAST-FACING REEFS AS SURF TOPS 9 FEET. THE WATER
TEMPERATURE IS 82 DEGREES AT THE IPAN BUOY.
DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE, THE
"BIGGEST" OF WHICH WERE TO INCREASE SHOWER POTENTIAL TO CHANCE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A
WEAKENING SHEAR LINE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY, ALBEIT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO GUAM AND THE CNMI. GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY WITH SUPPORT FROM
TIME HEIGHTS HELPED NUDGE OUR DECISION TO INCREASE POPS (PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION).
MARINE...
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE TWO-FOLD. FIRST, A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. SECONDLY, THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OF 10
FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LATTER POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE HOISTED.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A MODERATE TRADE-WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS THESE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST, EXPECT SHOWERS TO LIFT
INTO KOSRAE LATER TONIGHT AND THEN INTO POHNPEI SUNDAY. THE TROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT MAJURO THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAND OF TRADE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING BETWEEN
THE MAIN ISLANDS AND THE EQUATOR, BUT HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING CLOSER
TO MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF SHOWERS AROUND KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AS IT OSCILLATES
NORTH AND SOUTH NEXT WEEK, OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT MAJURO AS WELL.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND CLOSER TO
20 KT NEAR PASSING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS. POHNPEI'S BUOY REPORTS SEAS
AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET AND ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS ARE ALSO AROUND 7 TO 8
FEET AROUND KOSRAE AND MAJURO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A FOOT
OR TWO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE PRIMARY TRADE SWELL AND
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SWELL SUBSIDE. THE TRADE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT,
POTENTIALLY CREATING CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. SURF IS STILL
ELEVATED DUE TO THE PRIMARY TRADE SWELL AND SLOWLY DECREASING
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SWELL, WHICH IS IS STILL CAPABLE OF HAZARDOUS
SURF OF 9 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND NORTH AND EAST
FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURF IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SWELL SUBSIDE. LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT
WEEK, AS THE TRADE SWELL BUILDS TO STRENGTHENING WINDS, THIS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF BACK TO EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE DUE TO ITS LOWER
THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET, COMPARED TO 12 FEET AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
OVERALL, SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A SIMILAR PATTERN AS
YESTERDAY, WITH BANDS OF PATCHY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION, DUE TO SHALLOW TROUGHING AND TRADE-WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE OF A DECAYING TRADE-WIND SURGE. ONE
SHOWER BAND EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF YAP COASTAL
WATERS, PASSING OVER SOROL AND GAFERUT BEFORE CURVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO JUST NORTH OF CHUUK. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS IS SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN YAP STATE, EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM JUST EAST OF
PALAU. CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY REVEALS A
DRY AIR MASS WITH TPW VALUES AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES OVER PALAU AND
YAP, AND HIGHER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES OVER CHUUK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ON THE EDGE OF ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWER BANDS ARE PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH PALAU COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO ISOLATED LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SHOWER BAND PASSES. LIKEWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY FOR CHUUK AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWERS MOVES WESTWARD, STAYING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO FLEX NORTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS A DISORGANIZED TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION,
STARTING JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK, BUILDING SHOWERS ACROSS PALAU AROUND
MIDWEEK. YAP WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL, BUT MODELS MAINTAIN
A DRIER PATTERN THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. CHUUK WILL SEE A MOSTLY DRY
TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEFORE A MORE
ROBUST TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BUILDS NEARBY IN THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
RECENT ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATES COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET NEAR
PALAU AND 6 TO 8 FEET NEAR YAP AND CHUUK, COMPRISED OF AN ELEVATED
NORTHEAST TRADE SWELL AND DIMINISHING NORTH SWELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK NEAR PALAU AND YAP,
DIMINISHING TO MODERATE IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TRADES
BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION. CHUUK WILL SEE MOSTLY MODERATE
WINDS THROUGHOUT. SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH OVER YAP WATERS
STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS AND
SWELLS SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE, WITH STRONG GUSTS BECOMING MORE
FREQUENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 22
KNOTS, COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10
FEET AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SURF WILL ALSO BECOME MORE
ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS AS THE NORTHEAST TRADE
SWELL REACHES 7 TO 8 FEET, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, THE NORTHERLY
SWELL COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF
OF 9 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING LATER HAZARDS.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST MONDAY FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: CRUZ
MARIANAS: DOLL
EAST MICRONESIA: SCHANK
WEST MICRONESIA: DECOU
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