948
FXPQ50 PGUM 020715
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
515 PM CHST THU APR 2 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER WEATHER PATTERN IS SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A THIN
LINE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT FORMED ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS, OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUOYS SHOW SEAS HAVE DECREASED TO 4
TO 6 FEET.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS STILL POINT TO A SMALL UPTICK IN SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO A BROAD, BUT SHALLOW
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BRIEF UPTICKS IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH WEAK, PASSING TROUGHS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
TRADE-WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE/SURF
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A TRADE WIND SURGE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS
THE MARIANAS, POTENTIALLY REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 22 KT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES
WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS TO 6 TO 9 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN,
NORTHERLY SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY, WHEN SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 FEET. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS AND LOW RISK ALONG SOUTH
AND WEST FACING REEFS CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH
PRIMARY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE INCREASE IN EAST-NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SURF ALONG EAST AND
NORTH FACING REEFS, LIKELY INCREASING THE RIP RISK TO HIGH FOR EAST-
FACING REEFS STARTING SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ELEVATED SURF
FOR NORTH-FACING REEFS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS
COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN QUIET ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 2N175E. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE DISTURBANCE AND ALONG THE NET AXIS THAT
IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
NET AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT A NEAR
CRAWL. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN MICRONESIA IN A WET PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE NET AND DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINNING
TO ORGANIZE. THIS COULD LEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATING
OVER A SMALLER AREA THAN OVER A LARGER AREA. NONETHELESS, DROUGHT
RELIEF OVER THE NEXT WEEK APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE.
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE BENIGN AT AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA. COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS POHNPEI AND MAJURO. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, BUT SURF LOOKS TO BECOME
HAZARDOUS ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH (NET) WITH AN EMBEDDED CIRCULATION. THE NET ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 3N130E AND EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PALAU
AND THROUGH THE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION NEAR 3N138E (TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP PROPER AND SOUTHEAST OF PALAU). THEN, THE NET
CONTINUES TO EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN YAP AND CHUUK STATES
WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA. ALONG THE NET AXIS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH
THE MOST VIGOROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE REGION.
THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE THREE MAIN ISLANDS. A WEAK
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER YAP PROPER TONIGHT AND PALAU
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
BOTH ISLANDS. ONCE THIS TROUGH PASSES BOTH YAP AND PALAU IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. CHUUK ON THE OTHER HAND, IS WHERE ALL
THE FORECASTING CHALLENGES ARE. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, CHUUK
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN, WEATHER-WISE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY FORMING IN
EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL MEANDER ITS WAY TOWARDS CHUUK. TO REFLECT
THIS PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) WERE ELEVATED TO 50 PERCENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTIMETRY SHOWS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE PALAU, HOWEVER, YAP AND CHUUK'S SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE STARTING TONIGHT FOR CHUUK AND FRIDAY FOR YAP.
YAP'S COMBINED SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET
BY AROUND TUESDAY AND CHUUK IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET.
THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL
MOVING INTO THE REGION. CHUUK MAY SEE SURF AND SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS NEAR PALAU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE WINDS NEAR YAP ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS NEAR CHUUK ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO GENTLE TO FRESH BY AROUND SUNDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE
FOLLOWING DAY OR TWO.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: CRUZ
EAST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
WEST MICRONESIA: BOWSHER
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