915
FXPQ50 PGUM 190845
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 PM CHST TUE NOV 19 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
WEATHER IS QUIET ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS EVENING, WITH MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND COMBINED
SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, PUNCUATED BY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER
EVENT WILL BE THE SURGE IN TRADE WINDS THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN A RENEWED SURGE IN THE TRADES
WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT, AND ALSO GENERATING HIGH SURF ALONG WINDWARD SHORES.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE WIND SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
CHUUK AND POHNPEI. A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS
ACROSS MAJURO WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF KOSRAE IS GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED TRADE-WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES
OF TRADE-WIND SURGES WILL BRING FRESH TRADES TO MAJURO, POHNPEI AND
CHUUK THROUGH SATURDAY.
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE REGION WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN
7 AND 8 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED
TRADES AND THE NORTH SWELL. HIGH SURF IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS
WEEK AT CHUUK, POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. FOR NOW, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP THE LAST FEW DAYS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE
IS WELL NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR AND WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES IN THE COMING DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS YAP WITHIN THE CONVERGING SOUTHEAST
WINDS INTO THE DISTURBANCE. RELATIVELY BETTER WEATHER IS SEEN AT
KOROR, WHICH SITS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TRADES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS YAP ON WEDNESDAY AND PALAU ON
THURSDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AT
BOTH LOCATIONS, BUT A WETTER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
A NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL AND TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND
WAVES WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET. HAZARDOUS
SURF IS POSSIBLE BUT SEAS SHOULD KEEP BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT
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