190
FXPQ50 PGUM 102000
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 AM CHST WED MAR 11 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MARIANA ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND, IN COMBINATION WITH A SHEAR LINE
FRAGMENT, WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR GUAM AND THE CNMI. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SCATTERED FOR GUAM AND ROTA TODAY AND NUMEROUS AT SAIPAN AND
TINIAN. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND THE PUBLIC SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS THE TRACK AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS BECOME MORE CLEAR. COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SEAS BUILD UP TO 10 FEET
FOR THE CNMI THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TODAY,
BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY FOR GUAM
AND ROTA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT
BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AT
MAJURO. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO NUMEROUS TONIGHT AT KOSRAE AS
THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) BUILDS WESTWARD. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WAS
EXTENDED AGAIN AND IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NORTH SWELL HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO RECEDE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURF CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 9 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
FORECAST SITES, THOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO 8 FEET AT MAJURO STARTING EARLY FRIDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALAU WAS ISSUED
LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AS THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL CAME IN HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY THIS EVENING FOR PALAU. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FACING REEFS OF
BOTH YAP AND PALAU THROUGH 5PM THURSDAY. COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET
ARE EXPECTED FOR YAP TODAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 8 TO 9 FEET
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF YAP WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR YAP AND PALAU AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD, PARTICULARLY AT YAP WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AT BOTH PALAU AND CHUUK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT YAP AND SHOWERS CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE
TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHUUK
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES LATE
TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE AT CHUUK THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 649 PM CHST TUE MAR 10 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY STRONG
GUSTS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN AN ERRATIC PATTERN OVER THE
CNMI AS NORTHEASTERLIES AND SOUTHWESTERLIES CLASH. IPAN BUOY SHOWS
SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FEET.
DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE KNOWN AS INVEST 95W TO THE WEST,
ALONG WITH A DISSIPATING 96W TO THE EAST AND SHEARLINE FRAGMENT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED 95W
BEGINS ITS TREK TOWARD THE MARIANAS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS IT COMES CLOSER BEFORE CURVING NORTHWARD AND MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE MARIANAS AXIS JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS. EVEN SO, SAID
PROXIMITY IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SPORADICALLY DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS GUAM AND THE
CNMI. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THE PATTERN, HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING FLOODING AND WIND POTENTIAL; AS SUCH, THE GENERAL
PUBLIC MUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS IT DEVELOPS. IN THE
MEANTIME, TINIAN AND SAIPAN SHOULD EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS
TO ARRIVE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WITH OCCASIONALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGUM) ISSUED BY NWS GUAM REGARDING
THIS EVENT.
MARINE...
A COMPLEX MARINE PATTERN PRODUCED BY VARIOUS DISTANT SWELLS AND
LOCAL DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET NEAR GUAM AND ROTA, AND 7 TO 9
FEET NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN, ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN COMING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY COMPRISED OF A
PRIMARY NORTH SWELL, A LONGER-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL, AND A
DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST SWELL; THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF
NEARBY TROPICAL DISTURBANCES, A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT OVER THE CNMI,
AND A DISTANT MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH, EAST AND WEST FACING REEFS OF
THE MARIANAS TONIGHT, BEFORE DROPPING TO LOW ALONG WEST REEFS
THEREAFTER. AS MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELLS MAKE THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, HAZARDOUS SURF MAY
RETURN TO NORTH FACING REEFS BY THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
INVEST AREA 96W IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, AND WAS CLOSED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.
INVEST AREA 95W IS CENTERED NORTH OF YAP AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOMEWHAT NORTH OF SAIPAN AND WELL NORTH OF GUAM, AND
COULD ALSO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BEFORE IT CROSSES, IN WHICH CASE IT
WOULD NOT CROSS THE MARIANAS AT ALL.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON INVEST 95W, PLEASE SEE THE BULLETIN ISSUED
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADERS WTPN21 PGTW
AND ABPW10 PGTW.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE HIGH SURF CONCERNS FOR NORTH-FACING REEFS REMAIN, AS A NORTHERLY
SWELL AT 13 SECONDS CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED AT THE POHNPEI BUOY.
THIS EQUATES TO A LITTLE OVER 9 FEET SURF. THIS CONTINUES THE MODEL
TRENDS FROM THE LAST 48 HOURS OF BEING TOO QUICK TO DIMINISH SEA AND
SWELL HEIGHTS. AS SUCH, THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
3 AM FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. OTHERWISE, THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BUILD
WEST ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRENGTHENING, MAINLY CENTERED BETWEEN
4N AND 7N. THIS GIVES KOSRAE THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS WEEK,
WITH POHNPEI AND MAJURO JUST SEEING "FRINGE EFFECTS" (LOCALLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL THAT MAY BE OUT-FLOW DRIVEN).
AS FOR MARINE CONDITIONS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET MAY BUILD A FOOT TOWARDS WEEK'S END.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS EVENING
ARE INVEST AREA 95W AND A SHEAR LINE FEEDING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
INTO IT, AS WELL AS VARIOUS TROUGHS PROTRUDING FROM IT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY ALONG NORTH
FACING REEFS OF BOTH YAP AND PALAU. THAT MIGHT BE ALL PALAU NEEDS,
BUT ANOTHER EXTENSION IS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR YAP BECAUSE THE SWELLS
KEEP COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH, AND THEN EVEN MORE START COMING
DOWN, WHICH MAY ALSO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE WEEKEND.
CHUUK CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF DECLINE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND SEAS WILL BE 4 TO
6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COULD CLIMB TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET FOR
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN THEY COULD BECOME CHALLENGING FOR THE WEEKEND.
YAP WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SCATTERED FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD, WHICH ENDS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT, THEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY, AND FINALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS FOR THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MARINE CONDITIONS BEING CHALLENGING THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BECOMING HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY.
KOROR, PALAU WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF DECLINE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN 10 TO 15
KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, AND FINALLY BACK TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS FOR SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH
WILL CAUSE MARINE CONDITIONS TO BE CHALLENGING THE ENTIRE TIME, FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA/TROPICAL UPDATE: CRUZ/WHISNANT
MARIANAS: MONTVILA
EASTERN MICRONESIA: DOLL
WESTERN MICRONESIA: STANKO
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