892
FXPQ50 PGUM 100943
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
743 PM CHST FRI APR 10 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU IS SEEN TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN CHUUK STATE. IPAN BUOY SHOWS EAST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 11 FEET, WHILE ALTIMETRY SHOWS 10 TO 11 FOOT SEAS
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET FARTHER EAST.
DISCUSSION
ENJOY THE NEXT COUPLE OF FAIRLY QUIET DAYS IN THE MARIANAS, AS THAT
LOOKS TO CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM SINLAKU IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH WESTERN CHUUK STATE AS IT
STRENGTHENS. SINLAKU IS HELPING STRENGTHEN A LARGE TRADE-WIND SURGE,
WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE WINDS SEEN OVER AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS TS SINLAKU BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS AS IT
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TYPHOON
CONDITIONS TO GUAM AND ROTA NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY, WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. TINIAN AND
SAIPAN COULD SEE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SINLAKU MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE MARIANAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE/SURF
FRESH TO NEAR-GALE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU APPROACHES THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER GUAM AND ROTA, WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER
TINIAN AND SAIPAN, AS SINLAKU PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUAM AND ROTA AND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR GUAM AND ROTA TUESDAY.
SHOWER INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS TS SINLAKU
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO INCREASING
TROPICAL SWELL AND WIND WAVES AS SINLAKU CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A STRONG TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING A LARGE TRADE SWELL OF 8 TO
11 FEET ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS, ALONG WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
WINDS. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS SWELL IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 FEET ALONG
EAST FACING REEFS AND 10 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS NOW HIGH ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS AND REMAINS HIGH
FOR EAST FACING REEFS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. AS TS SINLAKU APPROACHES, SURF
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ISLANDS, WITH HAZARDOUS SURF POSSIBLY SPREADING
TO SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS AND SURF BECOMING DANGEROUS ALONG
NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS.
HYDROLOGY
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE MARIANAS WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MARIANAS
AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY CROSSING GUAM AS A CATEGORY
3 TYPHOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 15 TO 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR GUAM AND ROTA, WITH 8 TO 15
INCHES EXPECTED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SINLAKU MOVES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, CONSISTENT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND SATURATE THE SOILS ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR MUDSLIDES OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GUAM.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AS FLOOD WATCHES, ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER. IF LIVING NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS, MOVE
ITEMS AWAY FROM STREAM AND RIVER BANKS. MAKE SURE STORM DRAINS NEARBY
ARE NOT CLOGGED, ESPECIALLY IF LIVING AT LOW-LYING AREAS.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY THROUGH WESTERN CHUUK
STATE, MOVING WEST AT 2 MPH. IT IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 8N151E. SINLAKU
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT 50 MPH. AS
SINLAKU MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES SINLAKU THROUGH THE MARIANAS OVER
SOUTHERN GUAM AS A CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY IS
NARROWING AS TIME PASSES AND IT LOOKS PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR A
SOUTHERN GUAM PASSAGE. TS SINLAKU WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ANY CHANGES IN EXPECTED STRENGTH
AND/OR MOVEMENT. CURRENTLY, A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR FANANU, ULUL, POLOWAT AND CHUUK IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGE,
INUNDATION AND BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ON THE OUTLYING
ISLANDS OF WESTERN CHUUK STATE.
THE EFFECTS THAT SINLAKU WILL HAVE ON THE NORTHERN CNMI REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW, HOWEVER, THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK DOES BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT POHNPEI THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO LOW-END
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT
POHNPEI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KOSRAE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AT POHNPEI. A STRENGTHENING ITCZ WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS AROUND MAJURO DUE TO THE
ITCZ REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST MODERATE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT POHNPEI THROUGH
SATURDAY AND BECOME GENTLE TO LOW-END MODERATE STARTING SUNDAY.
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A COUPLE OF SMALL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
SWELLS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. HIGHER SEAS TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI
MAY BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT INTO POHNPEI'S COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ELEVATED SURF
ALONG EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
WELL. COMBINED SEAS AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
STARTING SUNDAY AND FALL TO AROUND 6 FEET NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MAJURO.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU REMAINS NEAR-
STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF WENO AND EAST OF ULUL. CONDITIONS ACROSS YAP
AND PALAU ARE BENIGN. DANGEROUS SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CHUUK STATE
AS TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU PRODUCES SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FOOT SEAS. SEAS
ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET ACROSS PALAU AND YAP.
IMPACTS ACROSS CHUUK STATE FROM TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU CONTINUE TO
WORSEN. TS SINLAKU IS NEARLY STATIONARY PRODUCING WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS CHUUK STATE CAUSING BEACH EROSION, INUNDATION, AND DANGEROUS
SURF. AS TS SINLAKU LIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHUUK
STATE. EVEN AFTER TS SINLAKU PASSES, CONVERGENT FLOW WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE STORM ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER ACROSS
CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF TS SINLAKU,
OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY IMPACT YAP MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ANY
SLIGHT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD IN THE TRACK OF TS SINLAKU WILL ALSO GREATLY
CHANGE THE IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHERN YAP STATE. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PALAU.
DANGEROUS SEAS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CHUUK STATE DUE TO TROPICAL STORM
SINLAKU. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FEET ARE OCCURRING AND WILL
PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BENIGN SEAS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS YAP AND PALAU, HOWEVER AS TS SINLAKU INTENSIFIES AND
GETS BIGGER, LARGE SWELLS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. BOTH YAP AND
PALAU LOOK TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE SWELLS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PALAU AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SEAS FOR YAP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR
PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS/TROPICAL: KLEESCHULTE
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT
WEST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
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