670
FXPQ50 PGUM 150846
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
646 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NO SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. ALTIMETRY
SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET AND IPAN BUOY DATA SHOWS 7 FEET
AT 17 SECONDS
DISCUSSION
A DRY SEASON REGIME HAS SET UP OVER THE ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH.
MARINE/SURF
LATEST ALTIMETRY PASS SHOWS ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE ISLANDS OF
PAGAN NORTHWARD. LOOKING FURTHER NORTH ON ALTIMETRY, SEA HEIGHTS ARE
SHOWING 16 TO 20 FEET. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AROUND A VIGOROUS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAPAN AND A KONA LOW THAT IS NORTHWEST OF
HAWAI'I, WHICH HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LONG-PERIOD NNW AND NE SWELLS IN
THE REGION. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY, THEN BECOME GENTLE TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLIES MONDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15 FEET OR MORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
AROUND 16 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS, THEREFORE, A HIGH SURF
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG EAST
FACING REEFS. AS NNW SWELL BUILDS OVER THE COMING DAYS, IT COULD
POTENTIALLY BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 9 FEET ALONG WEST FACING
REEFS, LIKELY REQUIRING THE ADVISORY TO BE EXTENDED TO WEST FACING
REEFS. THE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS COULD REACH 1 TO
3 FEET. ONCE THE SEAS CREST AND BEGIN TO FALL, LESSER ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL APPLY.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL RUNS FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WERE CORRECT, AS
THIS AFTERNOON'S ALTIMETRY CAME IN A FOOT HIGHER (7.5-8 FOOT SEAS),
WITH MODEL SWELL NOW SHOWING 8 FEET AT 13 SECONDS, WHICH EQUATES TO
AN 11 FOOT SURF. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, WE DECIDED TO REINSERT A
HEADLINE FOR ELEVATED SURF FOR NORTH AND EAST-FACING REEFS AT MAJURO,
WHILE CONTINUING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. ALL
HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, BEFORE YOUR RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES.
MEANWHILE, MAJURO HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA, AND THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS YOU REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH-END ISOLATED
COVERAGE (20% POTENTIAL) AND LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS (30%
POTENTIAL). THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN A WEAK
ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE). IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THIS
WILL PERSIST BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
AT POHNPEI, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS, BEFORE SUBSIDING A FOOT OR TWO THEREAFTER. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA ARE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH NEARING CHUUK, AND
DRY MIDLATITUDE AIR THAT HAS SETTLED OVER KOROR AND YAP.
CHUUK WILL FEATURE WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS WHILE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST, NORTH AND FINALLY NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT/TROUGH PASSES. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY, NUMEROUS MONDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED TUESDAY, THEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DRY AIR REACHES CHUUK. SEAS WILL BE 8
TO 10 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN CHALLENGING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, BECAUSE THE WAVES
ARE A LITTLE BIGGER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT YESTERDAY. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
YAP WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE WAVE ACTIVITY, BEING FARTHER NORTH.
LOOK FOR NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 11 TO 14 FEET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, 8 TO
12 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, AND 7 TO 9 FEET FRIDAY. HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS THROUGH THURSDAY BECOMING CHALLENGING ON FRIDAY.
KOROR, PALAU WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE NO MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE 9 TO 12 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY, 7 TO 10
FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 5 TO 8 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH SURF
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
BE HAZARDOUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN CHALLENGING THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CHST WEDNESDAY
FOR GUZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR
GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST MONDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CHST WEDNESDAY
FOR MPZ001>003.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR
MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST MONDAY FOR
PMZ151>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM
CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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