934
FXPQ50 PGUM 250737
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 PM CHST THU APR 25 2024
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE SHOWS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE REGION, AND HIGHER
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING BY OVERHEAD. REPORTS FROM THE
LOCAL MARIANA AIRPORTS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE COMBINED SEAS ACROSS
THE REGION OF 4 TO 5 FT AND PERHAPS 6 UP TO 7 FEET TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. A VERY WEAK SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS, AND ACTIVE WEATHER OVER MICRONESIA REMAINS SOUTH OF 10N.
DISCUSSION
FAIR WEATHER TRENDS CONTINUE FOR THE MARIANAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITH A PASSING TRADE-WIND TROUGH MAINLY ABOUT SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
ONLY LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE/SURF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS, ALTHOUGH
SURF MAY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY AT TIMES DURING THE COMING DAYS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE ANALYSIS DURING THE DAY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MULTIPLE TRADE-WIND TROUGHS IN THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE CONVERGENCE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT MAJURO, KOSRAE, AND POHNPEI.
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MAJURO, COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COMBINED SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING
9 FEET ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI
AND MAJURO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE TAMPERING DOWN TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE. FOR KOSRAE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
A RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR YAP STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE NORTH
TOWARD PALAU, COUPLED WITH WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGHS THAT WILL LEAD TO
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR CHUUK,
TRADE-WIND TROUGHS WITHIN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT CHUUK, YAP,
AND PALAU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT YAP AND PALAU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR CHUUK, MAINLY
MODERATE TRADES WITH SOME GUSTS TO FRESH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: SIMPSON
MICRONESIA: KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page