744
FXPQ50 PGUM 042019
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
619 AM CHST THU FEB 5 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
THE MARIANAS ARE BETWEEN FEATURES RIGHT NOW, LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MARIANAS
THIS MORNING. THE GEFSWAVE INDICATES ABOUT A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH, SO MARINERS WILL WANT TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THAT.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PENHA IS NEARING THE EDGE OF MICRONESIA, AND WILL
SOON PASS INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL EXTENDING
TOWARD KOROR, PALAU, BUT YAP IS NOW CLEAR OF THEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 35 MPH, HOWEVER THE RECENT DVORAK FIXES HAVE ALL
BEEN COMING IN AT T2.5, WHICH MEANS PENHA COULD BE BUMPED UP TO A
TROPICAL STORM AT THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE IN AN HOUR OR SO. NO WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH, AS IT'S ALREADY TOO FAR AWAY FROM
KOROR, PALAU. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION PENHA,
PLEASE REFER TO THE WARNING FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW, AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ81 PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY SEDATE IN EASTERN MICRONESIA. THERE ARE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR MAJURO, AND SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS NEAR KOSRAE,
AND THE BIG GROUP OF SHOWERS IS EXITING POHNPEI ON ITS WAY TOWARD
CHUUK. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET, WITH A PRETTY MUCH
FLAT TREND AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, AND A SLIGHT UPTREND AT MAJURO.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
LOWERED CHUUK FROM NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS
TAKING ITS SWEET TIME GETTING THERE. WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS AGAIN
WHEN IT'S ACTUALLY APPROACHING. YAP HAS A PAUSE TO DRY OUT TODAY,
COULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MOVE IN. KOROR, PALAU COULD BE FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THEY ARE CLOSE TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. SEA
HEIGHTS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET, WITH A SLIGHT DOWNTREND AT
KOROR, PALAU AND YAP, AND A SLIGHT UPTREND AT CHUUK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 559 PM CHST WED FEB 4 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE MARIANAS. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET
AROUND THE REGION. IPAN BUOY DATA SHOWS HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 6 FEET.
DISCUSSION...
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W MOVING FURTHER AWAY, ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION HAS BECAME NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS HAVE
TAKEN OVER AS THE DOMINATE PATTERN OVER THE REGION. AROUND FRIDAY A
TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRING THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE A WETTER
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN, NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS
SUGGEST THE NEXT SHEAR LINE MAY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL TO AS LOW AS 3 TO 5
FEET AS EARLY AS MONDAY. ANOTHER SHEAR LINE MAY ALLOW FOR SEAS TO
BUILD AGAIN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION, PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS INVEST 94W,
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W. IT IS
LOCATED NEAR 9N132E, WHICH IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, AND
HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH. SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR YAP PROPER AND PALAU
TONIGHT AS TD 02W CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TD 02W HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH AND IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.
THESE WINDS MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW AND FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TWO DISTINCT ACTIVE SECTORS WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE (ITCZ) ARE BRINGING PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE WESTERNMOST SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BRINGING ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
POHNPEI TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION FARTHER WEST AND
ALLOWING A BRIEF DRY CYCLE TO DEVELOP, BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE IN ITCZ
ACTIVITY BRINGS MORE SHOWERS NOT ONLY TO POHNPEI, BUT ALSO KOSRAE
DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND SECTOR OF THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUILDING OVER MAJURO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS INTENSIFYING AND PEAKING ACROSS
THE MARSHALLS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE IN THIS LATTER SECTOR, A DRY REGIME WILL ENSUE AT MAJURO BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, AND 6 TO 8 FEET
NEAR MAJURO, ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE
INCREASING A FOOT OR TWO DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE TRADE SWELL AND
LOCALIZED WIND WAVES INCREASE. AS KING TIDES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE, MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ONLY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON; EVEN SO, SEAS OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (FORMERLY INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
PALAU NEAR 9N132E AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM PALAU AND YAP
AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
NUMEROUS CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF TD 02W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN YAP
STATE THIS EVENING. PALAU IS CURRENTLY IN A SUBTLE DRY SLOT, BUT
CONVERGENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO PALAU LATER TONIGHT, LIKELY AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXTEND OVER YAP AND ARE SOUTHERLY ACROSS
PALAU, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS YAP AND PALAU ALONG WITH OVERALL DECREASE
IN SHOWERS AND INTO A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS THAT MAY LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTER. FIRST, LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT ISLAND EFFECT
SHOWERS AT PALAU THIS WEEKEND. SECOND, A TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR CHUUK
WILL STEADILY SHIFT WESTWARD. THE GFS SHOWS A EMBEDDED CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND LIFTING THE TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH ON A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK AND THE TROUGH AND ANY CIRCULATION ELONGATED. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PALAU AND YAP IN A DRIER PATTERN, WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN, BUT THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORS EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE WEEKEND RELATIVELY DRY.
SEAS ARE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET AROUND PALAU AND YAP, BUT QUICKLY
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TD 02W, WEST OF PALAU
AND YAP. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE FALLING TO AROUND 4 TO
6 FEET THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE PRIMARY SWELL BEING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, A STRONG NORTHERLY SWELL, GENERATED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF JAPAN THIS WEEKEND, IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO YAP AND PALAU AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BUILD SEAS AND SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS.
AT CHUUK, A TROUGH IS STEADILY MOVING TOWARDS THE STATE, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
BEING GUSTY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD
POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TO BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM OR TAKING A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO PALAU. WEAK CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 6 TO 7 FEET, AND MAY BECOME CHOPPY AND INCREASE A FOOT OR TWO
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
PUSHES THROUGH, BEFORE FALLING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA/TROPICAL UPDATE: STANKO
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: MONTVILA
WEST MICRONESIA: SCHANK
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