246
FXPQ50 PGUM 210747
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 PM CHST SAT FEB 21 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF ROTA. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO
8 FEET, WHILE IPAN BUOY DATA SHOWS ABOUT 5 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
A SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SAIPAN'S COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS TO THE
REGION. A BRIEF LULL MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A SHORT REPRIEVE IN
SHOWERS ALLOWING THEM TO POSSIBLY FALL TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THEN, A
TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL RE-INVIGORATE THE SHEAR LINE. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND WINDS MAY REACH TO 30 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN
IMPROVING NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY,
AND WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH WILL BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG, ALSO.
A SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING THIS BUILD UP
IN SEAS AND WINDS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 11
FEET BY AROUND MONDAY. THE SHEAR LINE WILL TRANSVERSE OVER SAIPAN
FIRST AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE A BRIEF LULL AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TRADE-
WIND SURGE ARRIVES AROUND TUESDAY. THIS SURGE WILL REINVIGORATE
THE WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ADVISORY WILL BE
UPDATED AS THE SHEAR LINE AND TRADE-WIND SURGE MOVES SOUTHWARD
AND AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
(ITCZ) ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, BUT WELL SOUTH OF MAJURO. A WEAK
SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT IS PRESENT JUST NORTH OF MAJURO. POHNPEI BUOY
SHOWS SEAS BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET.
AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN ITCZ STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION,
MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS POHNPEI THIS EVENING, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER KOSRAE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS
EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGHS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE
POHNPEI, REMAINING NORTH OF KOSRAE, RESULTING IN THE ITCZ REMAINING
ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR POHNPEI, POPS
(PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION) LOOK TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 30 AND 50
PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. FOR KOSRAE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ITCZ GETS
PULLED A BIT NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FOR
KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
TOO IMPRESSIVE, SO FLOODING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. FOR
MAJURO, A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, A TRADE-WIND SURGE LOOKS TO BRING A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO
THE MARSHALLS, WITH POPS INCREASING TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
FOR THE MARINE FORECAST, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR POHNPEI, A BUILDING NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR KOSRAE, SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AT THIS
LEVEL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH THE NORTH SWELL LOOKS TO TAKE OVER AS
THE PRIMARY SWELL TUESDAY. AT MAJURO, SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 6
TO 8 FEET TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AT THAT
LEVEL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO THROUGH
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. FOR KOSRAE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO GENTLE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED
SEAS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT
LULL IN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR YAP AND
CHUUK, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PALAU SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEADING INTO THE WEEK, A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CHUUK. THE NET IS EXPECTED TO BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK MONDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK FOR CHUUK AS THE NET
SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED
FOR PALAU AND YAP TO START THE WEEK AS A DRY TRADE-WIND FLOW SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. A SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE INTO YAP STATE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP ON WEDNESDAY
AND TO PALAU ON THURSDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY BENIGN ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED
SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG SHEAR LINE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. GUIDANCE
NOW HAS THE SHEAR LINE REACH YAP PROPER AND WENO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO APPROACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR
SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURF COULD ALSO BECOME
HAZARDOUS FOR NORTH FACING REEFS OF YAP AND CHUUK DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 PM
CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ153-154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: KLEESCHULTE
WEST MICRONESIA: WILLIAMS
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