000
FXPQ50 PGUM 110848
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
648 PM CHST WED MAR 11 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN,
WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER GUAM AND ROTA, AS THE COL
OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO DISINTEGRATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NURI (03W) AND NEWLY FORMED INVEST 97W TO THE NORTHEAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SPORADICALLY FORMING
SHOWERS IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN WATERS. IPAN BUOY INDICATES SEAS ARE 4
TO 5 FEET.
DISCUSSION
DURING PASSAGE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NURI (03W) COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS, ESPECIALLY TO TINIAN AND
SAIPAN, OR JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FORMED BETWEEN NURI AND INVEST 97W TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS,
LINES OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING UPSTREAM FROM
NURI, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A FLASH FLOODING RISK TO TINIAN
AND SAIPAN, BEGINNING NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NURI'S MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT CYCLE MAKES IT LESS LIKELY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARIANAS. EVEN SO, WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOMETIMES BE FRESH TO STRONG, WITH AN
OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE-FORCE GUST POSSIBLE, DURING THE MOST INTENSE
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY AS DIFFUSIVE NORTHERLIES FOLLOW ALONG THE LEESIDE OF
SAID STORM AFTER IT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NURI (03W) GRAZING THE MARIANAS TO THE WEST,
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING NEARBY SEAS UNTIL ITS EXIT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY, AS A SECONDARY NORTHERLY
SWELL AND TERTIARY SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MIX IN. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DURING THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH, EAST AND WEST FACING REEFS OF
THE MARIANAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY SWELLS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, HAZARDOUS SURF MAY RETURN TO NORTH FACING REEFS LATE
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
AT THIS TIME, 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER TINIAN AND
SAIPAN BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IF 03W TREKS
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS DURING PASSAGE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS. FOR SOILS THAT HAVE BEEN SATURATED BY
SUSTAINED AND INTENSE SHOWERS PREVIOUSLY, ESPECIALLY AT SAIPAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS, ANY NEW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY SUDDENLY BECOME
RUNOFF AND INCREASE FLASH FLOODING RISK EVEN FURTHER. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN TC MOTION.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) NURI (03W) IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF YAP
PROPER NEAR 11N137E. TD NURI IS CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT. TD NURI IS A WEAK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, NURI IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT, POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
POSITION SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NURI IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WST-NORTHWEST, THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR YAP PROPER AND ULITHI
IN CASE NURI MOVES FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY FOR YAP NOR ULITHI.
FARTHER NORTHEAST, INVEST 97W HAS REFORMED (PREVIOUSLY INVEST 96W, AS
IT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF
CONVECTION NEAR IT'S CENTER, WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 17N153E. THE
MODELS SHOW BOTH 95W AND 97W WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS (GFS
ENSEMBLE), WHILE THE ECENS (EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE) ARE SPLIT (SOME
MEMBERS WEAKEN BOTH AND SOME STRENGTHEN BOTH). STAY TUNED!
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NURI (03W), SEE BULLETINS
ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31
PGTW, AND BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADERS WTPQ31
PGUM AND WTPQ81 PGUM.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE) HAS BEEN LESS FOCUSED/ACTIVE TODAY, WITH THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION "SKIRTING" MAJURO TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. AS SUCH,
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT. AS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE ITCZ WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY,
BUT, IT MAY WIGGLE NORTH ENOUGH TO BRING PERIODS OF LOW-END SCATTERED
SHOWERS (30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES) FROM TIME TO TIME. A SIMILAR STORY
IS IN PLACE AT POHNPEI, AS HERE TOO THE ITCZ LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF YOUR AREA. MEANWHILE, KOSRAE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
(LOCALLY NUMEROUS) AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN, YOUR RAINFALL POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES AS WELL, AS THE
MODELS SHOW THE ITCZ WEAKENING
THE OTHER THING WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IS A NORTHERLY SWELL THAT
MAY BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD
REINTRODUCE HIGH SURF CONCERNS FOR NORTH FACING REEFS AT POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE. STAY TUNED!
WESTERN MICRONESIA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NURI IS THE MAIN FEATURE THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN MICRONESIA. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PALAU AND CHUUK, WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER YAP.
FOR PALAU, THE MAIN CONCERN IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING INTO THE AREA DUE TO TD NURI. THIS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PALAU THROUGH FRIDAY, UNTIL NURI
MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR
HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE NORTH SWELL COULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS LEFT UNCHANGED
FOR NOW, AND WILL BE EXTENDED DURING THE DAY SHIFT THURSDAY, IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
FOR YAP, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP PROPER AND
ULITHI. NURI IS CURRENTLY AROUND 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP PROPER
AND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NURI IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING, THE WATCH WAS ISSUED JUST IN
CASE NURI DECIDES TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. TS WINDS, IF THEY OCCUR, ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN
YAP WATERS.REGARDLESS, NURI IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SHOWERS
INTO YAP PROPER BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE A SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTH
AND NURI MAINTAIN A DECENT NORTH SWELL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND IF CONDITIONS WARRANT,
WILL BE EXTENDED DURING THE DAY SHIFT THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUILDING NORTH SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT OPERATIONS.
FOR CHUUK, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THERE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE REGION.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BECOME ISOLATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK AS BAND OF CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE STATE AND INTERACTS WITH
MORE APPROACHING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD
SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING REEFS AT WENO.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ002-003.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/HYDROLOGY: MONTVILA
EASTERN MICRONESIA/TROPICAL: DOLL
WESTERN MICRONESIA: STANKO
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