320
FXPQ50 PGUM 111744
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
344 AM CHST THU FEB 12 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BRIEF AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
COMBINED SEAS REMAIN 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING. ALTIMETRY DATA TO THE
WEST OF THE MARIANAS SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET, WHILE A
SOFAR BUOY SOUTH OF GUAM HAS SHOWN SEAS BETWEEN 9 TO 10 FEET THIS
MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON AS SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING. SURF WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS ALONG WITH A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING REEFS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR TONIGHT AT MAJURO WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. BOTH ALTIMETRY AND THE
POHNPEI BUOY SHOW COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET FOR POHNPEI. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF
KOSRAE AND NORTH FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF YAP PROPER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST WAS TO START
PALAU WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS STATUS QUO.
COMBINED SEAS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ALTIMETRY PASS OVER PALAU AND YAP SHOWED THAT COMBINED SEAS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 10 FEET AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS OF PALAU
AND YAP, AND NORTH FACING REEFS OF CHUUK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 645 PM CHST WED FEB 11 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE RADAR SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FEET, WHILE IPAN BUOY SHOWS HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA), HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
STATEMENT (HRRC), AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL. THIS WILL MAKE
IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO BE PRODUCED. LOOKING UP STREAM AND
INTO THE LONG RANGE MODEL DATA, SHOWERS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SEAS AND SURF. SEAS AND
SURF ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE COMBINED SEAS MAY FALL BELOW THE 10 FOOT THRESHOLD AS EARLY AS
THE MORNING. THE SURF AND RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A TRADE-
WIND SURGE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION, THIS WILL ASSIST IN
DELAYING THE GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF THE SEAS AND SURF. ANOTHER MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SHEAR LINE THAT WOULD BUILD THE SEAS AND
WINDS BACK UP NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEAS AND SURF. THE OVERNIGHT
ALTIMETRY PASS SHOWED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFFECTING
POHNPEI, WITH THESE WINDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THERE TO NEAR 165E.
AS SUCH, WE DECIDED TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) TO ACCOUNT
FOR EITHER SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY MEETING OR
EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 10 FEET. THIS
SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY. AS FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE, ALTIMETRY SUPPORTS KEEPING THESE
ADVISORIES IN PLACE. AT MAJURO, SEAS AND SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, ISOLATED SHOWERS IS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WE
CAN EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL POSSIBLY
INCREASING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINERS AT POHNPEI WILL SEE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THERE, DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO, MARINERS CAN EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSISTING.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA ARE A TRADE-
WIND SURGE WITH CHUUK AT ITS WESTERN EDGE AND A TRADE-WIND TROUGH
BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR.
CHUUK WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND BETWEEN
THOSE TWO PERIODS. CHUUK WILL HAVE WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7
FEET FRIDAY, LEADING TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD.
YAP WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN THESE TWO PERIODS. YAP WILL HAVE WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FEET
TONIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN BUILD BACK TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET SATURDAY LEADING TO
CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS THAT COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS.
KOROR, PALAU WILL HAVE 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS NEAR
SHOWERS TONIGHT. KOROR WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK, HOPEFULLY ALLAYING ANY DROUGHT CONCERNS. KOROR WILL HAVE 6 TO 8
FOOT SEAS TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH MONDAY,
LEADING TO MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AFTER TONIGHT.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST TODAY FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: WILLIAMS
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT/DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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