825
FXPQ50 PGUM 160846
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
646 PM CHST MON MAR 16 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET, AND IPAN BUOY DATA SHOWS 6 FEET AT 17
SECONDS.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH SEAS WARNING, HIGH SURF WARNING, COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STATEMENTS.
DISCUSSION
A DRY SEASON REGIME HAS SET UP AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 AND BUILD SLIGHTLY
TO 15 TO 20 BY THE WEEKEND.
MARINE/SURF
HERE IS WHERE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINED
SEAS ARE 12 TO 15 FEET, WITH HIGH SEAS JUST TO THE NORTH IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CNMI. THIS HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEN, THE SEAS AND SURF ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE COMING DAYS. TO REFLECT THIS TREND THE LESSER
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED, HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN FLUX SO END
TIME OF THESE WARNINGS AND START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES ARE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY FALL BELOW BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MICRONESIA WILL NUDGE EASTWARD AND PROMOTE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT POHNPEI STARTING
TONIGHT AND AT KOSRAE STARTING TUESDAY. A WEAK TRADE-WIND PATTERN
WILL TAKE HOLD BY LATE WEEK AND BRING ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST SWELL WHILE A KONA LOW NORTH OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A NORTHEAST SWELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG NORTH FACING
REEFS OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AND ALSO ALONG EAST FACING REEFS OF
KOSRAE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW 9 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS THEREAFTER, BUT
HAZARDOUS SURF MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION IN CASE THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
ELEVATED SURF REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND EAST REEFS OF MAJURO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
HOVER BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET, THOUGH SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 9 FEET AT
POHNPEI STARTING LATE ON TUESDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 9
FEET AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA IS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOMES A TROUGH JUST WEST OF CHUUK.
ALSO THERE ARE ROUGH SEAS, LARGE SWELLS, AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT YAP
AND PALAU.
CHUUK WILL BE LOOKING FORWARD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TONIGHT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BECOMING
SCATTERED AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW 15 KNOT VALUES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE
9 TO 11 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY, 8 TO 10 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT, 7 TO 9 FEET
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN 5 TO 7 FEET THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS LEADS TO MARINE CONDITIONS BEING HAZARDOUS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, THEN CHALLENGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
FINALLY BENIGN.
YAP WILL BE RECEIVING LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 9 TO 11 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY AND FINALLY 6 TO 8 FEET
SATURDAY. THIS SUGGESTS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CHALLENGING THROUGH FRIDAY, AND FINALLY PERHAPS BENIGN ON
SATURDAY.
KOROR WILL BE DRYING OUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE 9 TO 11
FEET TONIGHT, THEN 8 TO 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN 7 TO 9
FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN 6 TO 8 FEET. THIS RECOMMENDS
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
CHALLENGING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN HEADING TO
BENIGN EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GUZ001.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY
FOR GUZ001.
MP...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY
FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR
PMZ151>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM
CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: WHISNANT
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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