634
FXPQ50 PGUM 172253
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
853 AM CHST WED FEB 18 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
A WEAK SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT IS PRODUCING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM
AND ROTA THIS MORNING, BUT STILL EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS.
FARTHER EAST, ALONG THE SHEAR LINE, A BUILD UP OF SHOWERS ARE
FOCUSED NEAR AN EMBEDDED TRADE-WIND TROUGH NEAR 150E. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IN ATTEMPT TO TIME
SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER THE FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. AS THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION TONIGHT,
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO PUSH OFF TO THE WEST OF GUAM AND ROTA, BUT
LINGER NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN OVERNIGHT.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PRODUCED MODERATE TO DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALLS AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KOSRAE STATE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND DEVELOP
INTO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) FRAGMENT, GAINING SOME
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AND AIDING TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
KOSRAE TODAY AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO POHNPEI TONIGHT. THE ONLY
UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SHOWERS TO WIDESPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG GUSTS
NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, POSSIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY PRODUCE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED GUSTS.
RETAINED THE HEADLINES FOR ELEVATED SURF THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NORTH-
FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND NORTH- AND EAST-FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE,
AS WELL AS THE HEADLINE FOR MAJURO REGARDING MINOR INUNDATION
POSSIBLE ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORELINES DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
THE NET REMAINS SOUTH OF PALAU NEAR THE EQUATOR, WHILE A SHEAR LINE
FRAGMENT EXTENDS BETWEEN YAP AND PALAU AND CREATING A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP.
IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF YAP SO SHOWERS ARE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FOR TODAY, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AROUND PALAU THIS MORNING. CHUUK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
WESTWARD MOVING TRADE-WIND TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
AROUND CHUUK. FOR CHUUK, A SEASONAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS TRADE-WIND TOUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR PALAU AND YAP, AS THE SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT MEANDERS WITHING THE
TRADE-WIND FLOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS AND AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THE NET MAY START
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD STRENGTHEN
CONVERGENCE OVER PALAU, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 625 PM CHST TUE FEB 17 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS AND BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF GUAM AND ROTA. FRAGMENTS OF A SHEAR LINE ARE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GUAM AND THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CARRIED BY THE EASTERLY TRADES IN THE COMING DAYS. ISOLATED TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, NO FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO DESCEND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SUNDAY FOR THE CNMI AND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR GUAM AS THE SHEAR
LINES DESCENDS SOUTHWARD.
MARINE...
AN ALTIMETRY PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SEAS AROUND GUAM FROM 6
TO 8 FEET WITH THE IPAN BUOY CONTINUING TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN
SEAS AND SWELL THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, HAVE LET THE HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR EAST FACING REEFS EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH SEAS FALLING AS LOW AS 4 TO 6 FEET. A NORTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONT INTO A SHEAR LINE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL BUILD A COUPLE OF
FEET IN RESPONSE. THIS SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING FRESH, POSSIBLY STRONG,
WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THIS FEATURE DESCENDS SOUTHWARD.
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS OF AROUND 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TODAY'S MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THE NORTHERLY SWELL HEIGHTS BY A
FOOT OR SO, AND THE GFS WAVE WATCH MODEL WAS 1 TO 2 FEET HIGH AT
POHNPEI WHEN COMPARING TO BUOY OBSERVATIONS. AS SUCH, WE UNDERCUT
MODEL GUIDANCE BY 2 FEET TONIGHT AND BY A FOOT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE NET EFFECT FROM THIS WAS LESS OF A POTENTIAL TO HIT
HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT POHNPEI, WITH LESS OF A CHANCE AT KOSRAE AS
WELL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS WAS A RECENT CHANGE, WE ALSO OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE MODELS SHOW THE ITCZ
(INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE) FRAGMENT WILL LIFT NORTH THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS, AFFECTING POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. WITH THIS IN MIND,
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, POPS (PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION) WERE INCREASED AT THOSE LOCATIONS, WHILE ALSO
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
AS FOR MARINE CONDITIONS, LOOK FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TO
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL INCREASE A FOOT OR SO, MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA ARE A TRADE-
WIND TROUGH JUST WEST OF CHUUK, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF
KOROR, PALAU AND YAP, AND AN OLD SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT BETWEEN KOROR
AND CHUUK BEING BLOWN WESTWARD BY THE TRADE-WINDS.
CHUUK WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT, THEN ISOLATED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS. A BRIEF SPLASH OF SCATTERED
COULD RE-EMERGE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN ISOLATED AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE PERIOD ENDS SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS OF 4 TO
6 FEET WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THURSDAY, PEAKING AT 7 TO 8 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THESE ARE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE 8 FOOT SEAS
ARE AT THE UPPER END OF BENIGN.
YAP WILL FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FEET COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR YAP THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOROR, PALAU WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY, AND DOWN TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR KOROR, PALAU THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: CRUZ/SCHANK
MARIANAS: SCHANK/WHISNANT
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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