490
FXPQ50 PGUM 250530
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
330 PM CHST TUE JUN 25 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
WEATHER IS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A
VERY FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS, AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS. COMBINED
SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET AT THE BUOYS.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING WED NIGHT IS STILL IN THE
MODELS, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT
IS LEFT INTACT, BUT MODEL SUPPORT IS WEAKER THAN BEFORE, KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MARINE
COMBINED SEAS WILL DECLINE SLOWLY THE NEXT 5 DAYS, FROM 4-6 FT
TONIGHT TO 3-4 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. RIP RISK SHOULD BE
MODERATE ALONG EAST FACING REEFS, BUT COULD DROP TO LOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
NOT MUCH RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRYNESS IS EXPECTED FOR A WHILE,
UNLESS SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE-RELATED WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUUK, POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
STATES WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AND A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF KOSRAE NEAR 3N162E. RELATIVELY DRY
TRADES PREVAIL AT MAJURO, BUT SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN RMI. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE DRIER FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
EAST TO WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, THEN ANOTHER TRADE-WIND SURGE
COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS LATER THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, WEATHER AND
WINDS WILL BE CHANGEABLE ACROSS THIS REGION WHILE THE TROUGH AND
DISTURBANCE ARE NEARBY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION IS CENTERED AT
ABOUT 4N144E AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN AROUND THE CIRCULATION,
MAINLY OVER WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND OVER EASTERN YAP STATE TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND KOROR. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATE THE CIRCULATION WILL EDGE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEST FEW DAYS. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS NEARBY,
AND PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES PAST THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS, THEN NORTHWEST INTO
THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY ABOUT FRIDAY.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MIDDLEBROOKE/SIMPSON
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