197  
FXPQ60 PGUM 192130  
AFDPQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
730 AM CHST WED MAR 20 2019  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NORTHEAST TRADE-WINDS WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE  
MARIANAS THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ONLY SMALL TREAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A DRY SEASON WEATHER PATTERN  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE BRIEF  
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER WILL  
BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. TO ILLUSTRATE HOW DRY  
IT WILL BE, MODELS PREDICT THAT THE TOTAL RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE NEXT  
10 DAYS WILL BE ONLY A HALF AN INCH.  
   
MARINE
 
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOYS SHOW SEAS HEIGHTS BETWEEN  
7 TO 8 FEET. WW3 MODEL WAS ABOUT A FOOT TOO LOW SO USED THE NEAR  
SHORE WAVE MODEL WHICH SEEMED CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS.  
 
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 7 FEET TODAY FALLING TO BETWEEN 4 TO  
6 FEET BY THURSDAY.  
 
THE EAST SWELL WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT  
RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER POHNPEI AND SOUTH OF MAJURO  
THIS MORNING WHILE DRIER WEATHER REMAINS OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO.  
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT POHNPEI TO KEEP IN PLACE THROUGH  
THURSDAY. AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE  
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS  
THIS REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH BOTH LOCATIONS  
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF AT  
KOSRAE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURF SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW HAZARDOUS  
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE AT YAP AND KOROR WHILE WEATHER REMAINS  
RELATIVELY QUIET AT CHUUK THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN AROUND CHUUK WHICH WILL LIKELY BEGIN A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION  
REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN  
PLACE SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS IT WEAKENS. CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST WILL  
KEEP SHOWERS OVER CHUUK STATE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE  
CIRCULATION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND KOROR  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001>004.  
 
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT  
 
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