925  
FXPQ60 PGUM 162056  
AFDPQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
656 AM CHST THU JAN 17 2019  
   
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS EARLY  
THIS MORNING. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AND COMBINED SEAS  
WERE MAINLY BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION 01W IS PASSING WELL SOUTH OF GUAM. IT REMAINS POORLY  
ORGANIZED. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS THAT ARE MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH  
AND COULD REACH THE GUAM COASTAL WATERS OR EVEN GUAM ITSELF, BUT  
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE INTO THE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE  
SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THE  
MODELS CONTINUALLY HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. MOST HAVE  
IT MORE DEVELOPED THAN IT IS CURRENTLY. IF THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS  
STRONG AS FORECAST AT THAT POINT, THEN WE MAY NOT SEE THE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT FOR NOW THEY WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
MARINE/SURF
 
 
SEAS CONTINUE TO RISE. THEY HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8.5 AND  
9 FEET AT THE RITIDIAN BUOY AND THE UPWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE,  
ESPECIALLY SINCE AN INCREASE IN WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A LULL  
FOR A TIME BY FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR  
NORTH FACING REEFS AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON EAST AND NORTH  
REEFS.  
 

 
   
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
 
 
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION 01W, IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND WITH A CENTER LOCATED  
SOMEWHERE NEAR 4N146E. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST TO WEST-  
NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MICRONESIA ON FRIDAY.  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WANT TO STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS, BUT THE MODELS HAVE OVER-INTENSIFIED THIS SYSTEM  
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE CYCLE AND THE SYSTEM JUST HAS NOT  
STRENGTHENED. IT REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. WE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
EASTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON THE SOUTHEAST  
THRU SOUTHWEST FLANK OF MAJURO, AND WITHIN A BROAD AREA BETWEEN  
KOSRAE AND MAJURO. HAVE UPDATED SHOWERS FOR KOSRAE TODAY TO  
SCATTERED WORDING AS A RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF KOSRAE  
WHICH WILL INDUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PASS THRU KOSRAE MUCH OF  
TODAY. POHNPEI AND MAJURO WILL REMAIN UNDER RELATIVELY QUIET, DRY  
WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
AS WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATE AT KOSRAE TONIGHT, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL  
BECOME HAZARDOUS AS WELL. MAJURO MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS  
AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU TONIGHT THEN  
DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 KT STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. LONG-PERIOD NORTH  
SWELL UP TO 7 TO 8 FT AT MAJURO/KALO BUOY WILL PRODUCE SURF UP TO  
11 FT, WHICH REMAINS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WW3 ONLY  
SUGGESTED 2 TO 3 FT NORTHERLY SWELLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,  
THUS THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS SEAS AND SURF MAY  
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL INUNDATION FOR MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS  
WEEKEND IS HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FULL MOON AT PERIGEE ON  
JANUARY 21 AND ELEVATED SEA AND SURF CONDITIONS. MAJURO/KALO BUOY  
NOW SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.  
 

 
   
WESTERN MICRONESIA
 
 
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP  
TO 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND MORE THAN 350 MILES EAST OF KOROR  
PALAU THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRESH TO  
STRONG WINDS OVER KOROR AND YAP THRU FRIDAY NIGHT, AT THE SAME TIME  
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE  
HIGHLY ANTICIPATED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WHICH REMAINS SLOW-MOVING AS  
IT STEER TOWARD KOROR AND YAP THRU TONIGHT. HENCE, WE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.  
 
AT CHUUK, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE HEIGHTEN AS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE, AND THE SHOWER COVERAGE AT CHUUK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT  
THIS SITUATION.  
 
ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURF CONTINUES FOR BOTH KOROR AND YAP, AND SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.  
 

 
   
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GU...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR  
GUZ001>004.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GUZ001>004.  
 
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR  
PMZ151>154.  
 

 
 

 
 
NIERENBERG/BAQUI  
 
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