881  
WWMY80 PGUM 220504 AAA  
SPSGUM  
 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU  
304 PM CHST WED SEP 22 2021  
 
GUZ001>004-221000-  
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-  
304 PM CHST WED SEP 22 2021  
 
...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A  
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...  
 
THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF CHUUK IS NOW THE  
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (TCFA) ISSUED BY THE  
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE TCFA MEANS THAT THE FORMATION OF  
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
THE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NORTH OF CHUUK NEAR 11N150E, OR ROUGHLY  
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING  
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH.  
 
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NEAR OR  
THROUGH THE MARIANAS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE IS  
KNOWN AS INVEST AREA 99W AND IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE, AND  
QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE TRACK, HOW QUICKLY THE CIRCULATION WILL  
STRENGTHEN, AND HOW QUICKLY WILL IT MOVE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS SOME TYPE OF CIRCULATION PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE MARIANAS.  
 
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH IT'LL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED THE  
SYSTEM IS AND WHERE IT TRACKS, CURRENT ESTIMATES CALL FOR 1 TO 3  
INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE  
IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE FORECAST, AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY.  
 

 
 
DOLL  
 
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