443
FNUS75 KMSO 022312
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR NATURE GROVE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
512 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GIRD POINT RAWS REPORTED 0.72" OF RAIN FROM 5 PM
TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH 2 PM WEDNESDAY! HOW DID THE NBM DO
FOR THAT POINT? LOOKING AT THE TUE MORNING FORECAST IT HAD A 25TH
TO 75TH RANGE OF 0.10" TO 0.45". THE TOTAL AMOUNT VERIFIED IN THE
95TH PERCENTILE. WE'RE LOOKING AT A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST CORES. THE
SETUP FOR TONIGHT IS GREAT FOR STEADY RAINFALL AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE STALLED OVER THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGES FROM 0.25 TO 0.60". SHOWERS BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING AFTER
PROBABLY 100% RH RECOVERY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY GRADIENT COULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP
A LITTLE BIT, BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 24 MPH. A
GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WET SYSTEM
COULD DEPOSIT 0.40 TO 1.20" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY!
THURSDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....15 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
* MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 20 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.01 INCHES.
THURSDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...60 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....15 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-45.
* MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.35 INCHES.
FRIDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...50 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....15 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
* MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.14 INCHES.
FORECASTER...NOBLE
REQUESTED BY...KEELY FISHMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620340.11/MSO
.DELDT 09/02/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CLINT_MENDENHALL@FIRENET.GOV,MATTHEW.YOUNG@USDA.GOV,2026.NATUREGROVE.PLANS@FIRENET.GOV,MTMDC@FIRENET.GOV,SCOTT_SUKO@FIRENET.GOV,SCOTT.A.SUKO@USDA.GOV,GABE.DUMM@USDA.GOV,CLINT.MENDENHALL@USDA.GOV,MARIO.GOMEZ@USDA.GOV,JBARTA@BLM.GOV,CODY.HOOVER@USDA.GOV,DAVID.TINGLEY@USDA.GOV,CHRISTOPHER.MARABETTA@USDA.GOV
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