204
FNUS76 KOTX 141202
FWSOTX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ST JOE DIVIDE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
502 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 PDT ON MAY 14.
DISCUSSION
THE BURN SITE WILL REMAIN IN A BREEZY, COOLER THE NORMAL PATTERN,
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS SYSTEMS TRACK IN FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY, LEAVING
LIMITED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY, THEN MONDAY
LOOKS DRIER. TEMPERATURE WILL BE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLDEST, WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
START WARM FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY,
TRENDING LIGHTER RELATIVELY SPEAKING INTO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT;
IT REMAINS BREEZY INTO SATURDAY.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
***************************************************************
FORECASTS FOR 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS (VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS) ARE
10 MINUTE AVERAGES REFLECTING RAWS WIND.
***VENTILATION INDEX IS DERIVED FROM TRANSPORT WIND
MULTIPLIED BY THE MIXING HEIGHT DIVIDED BY 100.
CATEGORIES: LOW (< 200), MODERATE (200-500),
HIGH (500-800), AND VERY HIGH (> 800).
***************************************************************
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. RIDGETOP WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 23 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...MODERATE (485) INCREASING TO VERY HIGH (959) IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING, THEN A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN TRACE TO
0.05 INCHES.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.5 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 21 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...HIGH (654) DECREASING TO MODERATE (298)
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2300 FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT TRACE
TO 0.03 INCHES
CWR.................5 PERCENT DURING THE DAY...10 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 19 TO 25 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...HIGH (648) INCREASING TO VERY HIGH (1754) IN
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90%. CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN 65%. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS A TRACE
TO 0.05 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
WEST WINDS 2 TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 1 TO 4 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
WEST-NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...MSC
REQUESTED BY...MEGAN PRIMMER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613597.0/OTX
.DELDT 05/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MARSHALL.MYHRE@USDA.GOV,MEGAN.PRIMMER@USDA.GOV
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