372  
FXUS65 KBOI 150244  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
844 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SMOKE FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN CONTINUES TO MOVE  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE  
FORECAST TO INCLUDE HAZE WORDING WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME WAS MOST  
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY TO BREEZY  
WIND POSSIBLE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20  
KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS AFTER SUN/17Z. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE  
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS  
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SOUTHWEST 20-30 KTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
BACK STRONGLY AS A STRONG AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS AND  
DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. THIS WILL GIVE US A HOT  
SUNDAY AS WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A COLD  
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AS THE  
UPPER LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND  
SPREAD FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE DAY  
MONDAY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.  
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN SUNDAY, WITH  
READINGS DROPPING 10 TO 20 DEGREES. THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE  
CHANGES WILL BE IN EASTERN OREGON WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE  
AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND  
EAST. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE  
INCREASING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO  
THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS THE  
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE  
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. SNOW  
LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 8000 FEET ON THURSDAY BRINGING A DUSTING  
OF SNOW TO THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH  
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTERWARDS.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...KB  
AVIATION.....SH  
PREV SHORT TERM...SP  
PREV LONG TERM....JB/JB  
 
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