396
FXUS65 KBOI 141207
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
607 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COOLDOWN THIS WEEKEND, CONDITIONS STAY DRY AND BREEZY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS WILL BRING SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 250 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH
DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE, THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL
EXPAND, YIELDING CHILLY MORNING LOWS DOWN TO 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS SYSTEM, A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND LOCALIZED BLOWING
DUST RISKS IN OPEN TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRIVES A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS, MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN
STORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FALLING SNOW LEVELS. COLD
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, INCLUDING AROUND
MCCALL AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS, LEADING TO LOCALIZED
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 250 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CENTER OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND THAT WILL DROP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE LOW CENTER PASSAGE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 3500-5000 FEET ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING A 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ID. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ID MOUNTAINS AS WELL. FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, OUR AREA WILL MOSTLY STAY
UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE PROJECTS A LARGE
PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY, CONTINUING
A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 604 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER MAGIC VALLEY AND SE OR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-10 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 8-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN-
SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 5.5-6.5KFT RANGE
SATURDAY TO THE 3.5-5KFT RANGE SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT OVER UPPER TREASURE VALLEY (KMUO) AND
MAGIC VALLEY. STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY AT NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40
KT OVER MOST AREAS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JY
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