584
FXUS65 KBOI 050550
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1150 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY,
DECREASING SUNDAY.
- VERY WARM FRIDAY, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY, WARMING NEXT WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 233 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS A TROUGH OFF HAIDA GWAII MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE BC COAST TODAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH, THE
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR AROUND 10
DEGREES OF WARMING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO WA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN OR ON FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35-45 MPH
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR FROM BAKER CITY
TO ONTARIO OR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL NOT BE FULLY REALIZED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
WA ON SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION, ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL ID
PANHANDLE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 233 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOVE EAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SHOWERS BRING A 10-20%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VALLEY
COUNTY, WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OUT, MUCH OF IDAHO SEES GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY STRONG IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND PARTS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN BETWEEN BOISE AND TWIN FALLS. GUSTS IN THESE AREAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-35 MPH. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WON'T HAVE MUCH TIME TO RISE FOLLOWING THE COOL AND
BREEZY WEEKEND, AS MODELS ARE IN BROAD CONSENSUS BRINGING A
STRONG TROUGH THROUGH IDAHO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY THE
MOST IN THE TROUGH'S AMPLITUDE, WHETHER IT CLOSES AND VORTICITY
STRENGTHENS OR REMAINS A WAVE IN THE BROADER FLOW. THIS IMPACTS
FORECASTED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THE MOST, BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IS MOSTLY CONSISTENT. PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON MONDAY EVENING, MOVES OVER ALL OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON TUESDAY, AND THEN
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IDAHO AS IT EXITS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THESE AREAS SEE A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY WHERE THE CORE OF THE LOW BRING A 50-70%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EVENT IS FORECAST TO TOTAL UP TO 0.1 INCHES IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UP TO 0.75 INCHES IN MOUNTAINS. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. A LIMITING FACTOR OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOW
AND CLOUD COVER INHIBITING INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING MUCH HIGHER LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ALL ELEVATIONS. THE
LOWER SURFACE TEMPS BRING SOME SNOW TO SUMMITS AND RIDGELINES.
ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS INCREASE IN RIDGELINES AND OPEN AREAS
DURING THE LOW'S PASSAGE. EACH AFTERNOON SEES GUSTS 15 TO 30 MPH
UNTIL THURSDAY WHERE GUSTS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON WEAKEN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 1134 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DRY COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON, AND THEN FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS: DIURNAL LESS THAN
10KT BECOMING SW-NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY 20Z FOR OREGON
SITES AND AFTER 22Z IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: W 20 KT
BECOMING SW 20-25 KT AFTER 05/20Z.
KBOI...VFR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: SE LESS THAN
10 KT BECOMING NW 8-12 KT AFTER 05/19Z. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER
06/06Z SATURDAY.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL
MVFR IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....MC/LC
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
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