672
FXUS65 KBOI 242049
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECEDE THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORM
LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DOWN TO 4000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES ON SATURDAY: THE FIRST
PASSAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN UP TO
7500 FEET, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER SECOND FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW, HEAVIEST IN NORTHERN
AREAS. WIND MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL FEATURE, WITH MODELS
AVERAGING 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES, THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN HIGHLAND ZONES. IN
ADDITION, SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF THE AREA INTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS CAME IN ABOUT 20
PERCENT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
LIKELY DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY. SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEES DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH UP TO 0.20 INCH IS POSSIBLE.
RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO
NEAR 4000 FEET. HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6500 FEET) COULD SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SEE FAR LESS, WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ABOVE 4500 FEET. MCCALL HAS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
TO EXCEED 4 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL CAUSE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING WELL OUT OF OUR AREA,
GIVING WAY TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING STARTING
MONDAY. BEFORE THIS PROGRESSES INTO A MORE POTENT RIDGE OVER THE
AREA, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE,
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES MENTIONABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WHILE I THINK THE POPS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BY TAKING PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS INTO ACCOUNT, I DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE GIVEN THE
SETUP. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY RAISE FROM 3500-5000 FT MSL TO 5000-7000
FT MSL BY TUESDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
WELL OVERHEAD. THE EFFECT THIS HAS ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IS SHOWN DIFFERENTLY IN LONG
RANGE MODELS, WHERE THE GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH KEEPS IT WELL NORTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY, IT IS
UNSURPRISING THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL POPULATING IN OUR
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE EAST BY THU/12Z, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
VFR. CLOUD CEILINGS LOWERING GRADUALLY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN SE OR AROUND SAT/00Z AND SW
ID AROUND SAT/06Z. LLWS CONCERN FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH PASSING
COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: S-SE 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 20- 25 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...VFR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY. MVFR CHANCES HEIGHTEN
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AFTER SAT/10Z. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
GREATLY AFTER SAT/12Z. LLWS IS A CONCERN AFTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, MAXIMIZED DURING PERIODS EMPHASIZED IN TAF. SURFACE
WINDS: SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT/07Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET MSL
SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG
IN VALLEYS THROUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
SW-SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT FOR MOST AREAS. LLWS
WIDESPREAD BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGEST
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN OR AND MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAKER CITY 38 58 25 48 / 80 100 50 60
BOISE 48 61 39 51 / 30 90 70 60
BURNS 35 57 21 45 / 80 90 30 70
CALDWELL 47 64 37 54 / 50 90 60 60
FAIRFIELD 32 49 23 43 / 0 70 90 50
IDAHO CITY 35 55 25 48 / 40 100 90 70
JEROME 43 56 36 45 / 0 30 70 50
MCCALL 34 46 25 39 / 80 100 90 80
MOUNTAIN HOME 45 61 36 51 / 10 60 80 60
ONTARIO 45 62 35 53 / 70 90 50 60
ROME 41 62 31 50 / 50 70 50 60
TWIN FALLS 44 60 35 47 / 0 30 70 60
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY IDZ015-029.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
SATURDAY ORZ061-063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
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