209
FXUS65 KBOI 020340
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED CLOSED LOW PUSHING ONTO THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW,
TRACKING SW TO NE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ISN'T OUT
OF THE QUESTION (5-10%) AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 6500-8500 FEET OVERNIGHT LIMITING ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER
PEAKS. MONDAY WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION SHIFT INTO SW
IDAHO ZONES AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN NV.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, THEN NW TO SE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS:
6000-7500FT MSL. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VIS. IFR-LIFR IN MTN SNOW. ISOLATED LIGHTNING NEAR NV
BORDER. MTNS OBSCURED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MONDAY EVE, EXCEPT
LINGERING LOW STRATUS/FOG FOR W MAGIC VALLEY AND VICINITY.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 8KT, THEN W-NW 5- 15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT MON AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 10-20
KT, VEERING TO N MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KBOI...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, CREATING LOW
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINAL. TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. FOOTHILLS OBSCURED
DURING PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN NW 5-15
KT AFTER MON/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AT 2 PM MST RADAR
ECHOES WERE INCREASING IN MALHEUR AND OWYHEE COUNTIES, STILL
WELL EAST OF THE SUPPORTING PACIFIC UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA
40/129. THE LOW WAS MOVING EASTWARD AND HAS ACCELERATED SINCE
THIS MORNING. IT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
AND NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH FEWER
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME SHOULD
TOTAL .20 TO .50 INCH IN WESTERN IDAHO, AND .05 TO .20 INCH
IN EASTERN OREGON. WE KEPT A SLIGHT (10-15%) CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXITS EASTWARD
INTO WYOMING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 MPH MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW MONDAY NIGHT TO BE 8 TO 14 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT, BUT TUESDAY WILL WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S UNDER TEMPORARY UPPER RIDGING, LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE COLDER THAN MONDAY'S
TROUGH. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE IN OUR OTHER ZONES
FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 80-90% FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME WILL BE 5-6 KFT MSL,
BEFORE LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT MSL THURSDAY MORNING. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE 0.10-0.30 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WHILE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS SEE 0.40-0.80 INCHES OF RAIN/LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AND 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. AT THE SAME TIME, WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY EVENING REACH 20-30 MPH, FOCUSED ALONG HIGHLANDS
AND RIDGETOPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. TEMPS AFTER THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WARMS US BACK UP TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COME
NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA, MODELS HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX IN OUR MOUNTAINS TO
KEEP A 10-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH, SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, ESPECIALLY AMONG ENSEMBLES
SEEMS TO BE REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE WEDNESDAY FRONT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page