722
FXUS65 KBOI 042114
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
214 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CURRENT RADAR (AS
OF TYPING THIS) SHOWS SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE SW-IDAHO AND
E-OREGON AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES IT'S WAY OVER THE AREA. WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, AND SOME INSTABILITY BUILDING IN
(ALTHOUGH LACK OF CLEARING HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT), SOME SHOWERS
MAY TAKE ON A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
THUNDER CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH A LIGHTNING FLASH IS
NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE COME MONDAY. THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE WEST COAST WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AND DIG DOWN OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THAT IS TAKING
A PLACE, A THEN OUT OF PHASE SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT) WILL PROGRESS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
BRINGING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY AND
MONDAY, PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES (BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 INCHES
NEAR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIP, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER RIDGES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT MSL BY MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FALL FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER MONDAY, SOME MAY ASSUME THE ATTENTION WOULD THEN BE
TOWARDS TUESDAY... THEY WOULD HAVE ASSUMED CORRECTLY IN THIS
CASE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON, YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE MID-
LEVELS, AND THOSE BECOMING ORIENTED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE TROUGH DIGS, WE WILL HAVE GOOD OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
PRECIP IN OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 3-5KFT MSL AT THIS POINT (LOWEST TO THE NORTHWEST), SO
IN GENERAL ELEVATIONS BELOW 4KFT MSL WILL JUST SEE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL
LIKELY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEPPING ON THE LONG TERM FORECASTERS PERIOD A LITTLE
BIT HERE, BUT FROM TUESDAY 5P MST TO WEDNESDAY 5P MST THE NBM
SHOWS A 50+% CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SEEING GREATER THAN 4
INCHES OF SNOW FALL. WITH THIS, AN ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES, BUT WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS FOR THE TIME
BEING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST CARRIES 4-8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER
THAT PERIOD FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH 12-16 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. IN REGARD TO QPF FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, E-OREGON
WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE (GENERALLY LESS THAT 0.05 INCHES); THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN IDAHO WILL RANGE FROM 0.05-0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
AN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH MTNS KEEPING A 60-80% CHANCE OF SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE VALLEYS CARRY A 20-40% CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ON THE BACK END OF
AN EXITING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MTNS (SEE SHORT TERM DISC. FOR STORM
TOTALS/NBM PROBABILITIES). VALLEYS ARE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX (NO
ACCUMULATION) WITH SNOW LEVELS 2.5-4.5 KFT MSL. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD MAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT A BIT MORE INTERESTING IN THE
VALLEYS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS VALLEY SNOW AMOUNTS LESS
THAN AN INCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAINS ARE INLINE FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER FOR THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE E-CENTRAL OREGON AND
W- CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US. THE WARMING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION WHICH WOULD
OPEN UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MTNS WILL SEE THE MOST FLUCTUATION IN THE
EXTENDED GOING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THUR TO
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. VALLEYS WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND POSSIBLE UNDER THE INVERSION.
AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR IN E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS
WITH CEILINGS AND SNOW OBSCURING TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS 5-6KFT
MSL. VFR IN VALLEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. MVFR DEVELOPING IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN EAST OF KBOI AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND ACROSS SE OREGON
AFTER 15Z MONDAY MORNING. RAIN/SNOW ON MONDAY WILL KEEP LOW
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. SURFACE WINDS: SE-SW 5-15 KT WITH
LOCAL 10-20 KT GUSTING 20-30 KT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 20-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING VARIABLE CEILING
HEIGHTS. A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z MONDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS (MOSTLY FROM
THE SE) THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....DG
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