145  
FXUS65 KBOI 010307  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
907 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2023  
 
.DISCUSSION..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE  
AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED BASED  
ON THIS TREND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER BEFORE  
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM  
OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL IDAHO AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL LEAD  
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS  
ALSO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO OREGON  
ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION  
IN SOUTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, THE STRONGER  
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND  
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST  
AND SOUTH OF KMUO BEFORE 01/06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: MAINLY W-NW 5-15 KT EXCEPT 15-25 KT IN  
THE KTWF/KJER AREA BEFORE 01/04Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL:  
W-SW 10-20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 01/12Z.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 2 PM MDT  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WELL UNDERWAY ALONG A MOIST AXIS  
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH HELLS CANYON.  
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN OWYHEE  
COUNTY, AND ONE STORM WAS ABOUT TO ENTER THE TREASURE VALLEY  
NEAR THE CANYON/ADA COUNTY LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT  
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS  
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THERE WILL  
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE  
MOIST AXIS. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVENING  
WITH DRIER AIR COMING INTO OREGON FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A SHORT  
WAVE TROUGH IN THE BASE OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO  
COME INLAND ACROSS OREGON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY  
NIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL  
HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES AGAIN THURSDAY,  
WHILE OTHERS AGAIN FORM IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BOISE  
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. FRIDAY  
LOOKS DRIER IN THE SOUTH, BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL ARE DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BOISE  
MOUNTAINS AS THE MOIST AXIS STALLS THERE. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE  
IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO  
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, PUSHING DRY AIR INTO EASTERN OR AND  
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FROM THE WEST. THE DRIER AIR WILL TEMPORARILY LIMIT  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY, AND WILL BE  
CONFINED TO EASTERN ID. DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN,  
A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CA MONDAY WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO SOUTHEAST  
OVER OUR REGION AND REINTRODUCE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY LASTING  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...BW  
AVIATION.....JT  
PREV SHORT TERM...LC  
PREV LONG TERM....KA  
 
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