437
FXUS65 KBOI 012037
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL
IDAHO.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SWINGING FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST. CURRENT
MODELING TRACKS THE TROUGH ALONG WA/OR BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE W-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. A
LOWER PROBABILITY (5-10%) EXISTS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
SHOWER/STORM THREAT TAPERS OFF ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WHILE A LOW CHANCE REMAINS IN THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TO START THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDY SKIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA (PARTICULARLY VALLEY COUNTY), BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT
BY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY BY 5-10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES
/ INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR OUR AREA, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AS AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS DEPICT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY FOR E OREGON
AND SW IDAHO, INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%)
ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SATURDAY,
BUT FURTHER COOLING IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY FROM THE TRAVERSING
TROUGH, BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
DEPARTS TOWARD THE EAST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1147 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR AND HIGH CLOUDS. CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS:
W TO NW 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FROM KBOI TO
KJER/KTWF. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: WESTERLY 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR AND HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: NW 6-12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
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