867
FXUS65 KBOI 072154
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK WARM FRONT
HAS BRIGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT WARM FRONT ARRIVES ON
MONDAY EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A LINE
FROM BURNS OR TO JEROME ID THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AND
MOIST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS WA,
NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT. THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, BUT FAR LESS AMOUNTS COMPARED TO
NORTHERN ID. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE
7000-8000 FEET.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ARE
CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, PULLING A SIGNIFICANTLY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS AT 50-70 KT WITH PWS NEAR
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS IN RIDGES, OPEN AREAS, AND
HIGHLANDS GUST UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS,
OROGRAPHY, AND THE MOISTURE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GREATER THAN 70% IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
RAINFALL/LIQUID EQUIVALENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS AN
EXTRA 0.5-1.5 INCHES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND UP TO 0.1 INCHES IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TOP OF WHAT FELL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STRONG FLOW AND WARM AIRMASS BRING SNOW LEVELS UP TO A
STAGGERING 7-9 KFT MSL BOTH OF THESE DAYS, SO WHILE THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT OF SNOW, MOUNTAINS BELOW
ABOUT 8KFT MSL WILL SEE PREDOMINATELY RAIN. THE PROLONGED
RAINFALL ON A BARELY DEVELOPED SNOWPACK WOULD PRODUCE RUN OFF
AND HAVE LONG-LIVED IMPACTS ON THE SNOWPACK GOING INTO THE
WINTER.
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT TAPERS OFF INTO FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME GOES NORTH OVER THE CALIFORNIA HIGH AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY DRY AND WINDS DIE DOWN AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGING WILL MAKE VALLEY INVERSIONS
POSSIBLE AND THUS FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH SATURATED SOILS. WITH
THE WARMER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG- TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF INVERTED CONDITIONS INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR COULD GET TRAPPED NEAR
THE SURFACE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF SUNDAY, WITH
SOME HINTS AT A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS AND MORE PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR IN MID-LEVEL OVERCAST CEILINGS. LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF A KBNO-KMUO
LINE. MVFR-IFR IN MOUNTAIN PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS, LOCALLY LIFR
DUE TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 5K-7K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE-SW 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W 25-40 KT INCREASING TO THE NORTH.
KBOI...GENERALLY VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH MON/05Z. FOOTHILLS OBSCURED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FOG NEAR KONO/KEUL OVERNIGHT MAKES MORNING LOW CLOUDS A
POSSIBILITY. SURFACE WINDS: SE 7-12 KT
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM
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