284
FXUS65 KBOI 102007
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
207 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY OVER INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH SUNSET AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE ABOVE MTN VALLEY FLOORS THROUGH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BRING A SHIFT TO W-NW WINDS BUT THE MAGNITUDE WILL BE DIMINISHED.
FORECAST TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS IT THROUGH SE OREGON BY EARLY
EVENING, THEN SLOWING DOWN AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY SEES A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EASTWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, THE
GREATEST COOLING ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT (10-15% CHANCE) REMAINS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS
WHERE MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY EXISTS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND MOSTLY GRADIENT DRIVEN AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SNOW LEVELS WON'T BEGIN TO FALL
IN EARNEST UNTIL SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
MOVES OVERHEAD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS ACROSS SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-6KFT MSL. THIS PERIOD WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A TRAILING UPPER
LOW DROPPING OUT OF BC, CANADA WILL KEEP A 60-80% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER E-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STAY
ABOVE 6-6.5KFT MSL WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY, STEENS MTN, THE OWYHEES AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER ON SUNDAY,
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID-UPPER 50S
VALLEYS, LOW 40S MTNS).
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FIRST
CUTS- OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST, THEN WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS VERY STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE LOCATION, DEPTH, AND INITIAL
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. REGARDLESS OF HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW OPENS UP, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET, WITH A 10-15% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW EACH DAY FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE, WITH THE WEEKLY TOTAL RANGING FROM 0.05 INCHES
TO 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
VFR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ID W-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: S-E 10-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING SW-W BY THE
LATE EVENING, WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15 KT AREA-
WIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S-SE 20-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT,
TURNING TO THE SW-W BY THE EVENING AND SLACKENING TO LESS THAN
12 KT OVERNIGHT. .
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SAT MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS 5-7KFT MSL AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-NW GUSTS OF
20-30KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
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