959
FXUS65 KBOI 140348
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
848 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
DISCUSSION
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDER BROAD RIDGING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND
FOG THIS EVENING, BUT AS THEY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY, EXPECT PATCHY STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND BASINS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY TO
COUNCIL LINE, ON SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
MID-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA KEEP
CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
(KBKE-KMYL) WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR. OVERNIGHT IFR-LIFR
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW,
WITH SNOW LEVELS 4-5 KFT MSL. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 8-12 KT,
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W-SW 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: SE 7-12
KT.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION AND VFR-MVFR LOW CEILINGS ACROSS
THE NORTH CONTINUE WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5 KFT MSL. SURFACE
WINDS: SW- SE 5-15 KT SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A FLAT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN 25% OF OUR CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THE
MOIST BAND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. OUR
CWA WILL THEREFORE BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE
TO START OFF THIS COMING WEEK, WITH ATTENTION BEING DRAWN TO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH THAT
AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA FILLS IN AND REJOINS THE
MAIN FLOW, ANOTHER LOW DIGGING DOWN THE COAST WILL HELP SLING
IT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ACROSS
MULTIPLE RUNS AND MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE SUITES, HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY
5PM MST THROUGH TUESDAY 11AM MST AS HAVING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, REACHING
50-95% BY MONDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS). WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, SNOW LEVELS WILL
ALSO START OFF ELEVATED AT 4.5-6KFT MSL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CARRYING GENERALLY 1-5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 4KFT MSL, AND 6-12 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 6KFT MSL (LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG PEAKS) OVER THE COURSE
OF 5PM MST MONDAY THOUGH 5PM MST TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON MOUNTAIN ROUTES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
PASSES WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
IN TERMS OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD, LOWER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 0.10-0.25 INCHES
OF RAIN.
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE THE SECOND LOW (THE ONE THAT DUG DOWN AND SLUNG
THE FIRST ONE INTO US) MAKES ITS WAY ONSHORE. THIS WILL AID IN
DROPPING OUR TEMPS, AND OUR SNOW LEVELS, FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE LEANING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL; SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1.5-2.5KFT
MSL (A.K.A. VALLEY FLOORS). TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
HOVER THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE PRECIPITATION
WONT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE EVENT THAT STARTED THE WEEK,
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS TROUGH MOVES IN.
STRONG RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
500MB HEIGHTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), EXTENDING UP TO THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR AREA IN COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT ONLY KEEP US
COOL, BUT DIRECT THE STORM TRACK OUR WAY. COME THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE. THIS WOULD ALLOW IT
TO TAP INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE WHILE MAINTAINING A COLD
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. WHILE THIS IS STILL A WEEK OR SO OUT,
SO DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN (AND EVEN VALLEY) SNOW. AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE CHANCE OF SEEING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE
SNAKE BASIN BETWEEN WEDNESDAY 5PM MST AND FRIDAY 5PM MST, RANGE
FROM 50-70%. THE CHANCES OF ONE INCH OF SNOW IN THAT SAME TIME
FRAME RANGE FROM 10-35%, HIGHEST NEAR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND BETWEEN BOISE AND MOUNTAIN HOME.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
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