401
FXUS65 KBOI 070011
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
511 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY, THEN DRIER AND
WARMER ON SUNDAY.
- A CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 211 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
SPOTTY COVERAGE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A CLUSTER OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS IS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, SO HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN TO 15-30% ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WEST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AND SE OREGON DOWN TO THE NV BORDER. A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LINGERS OVER THE W-CENTRAL ID MTNS ON SUNDAY, NORTH
OF MCCALL TO YELLOW PINE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT MTN VALLEY
FLOORS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SOME MORNING FOG, DRY AND NOTABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WARMER SPOTS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH THE ENTIRE
REGION REACHING AROUND 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 211 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, DIRECTED BY A CANADIAN TROUGH, WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO (30-50% CHANCE). WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SCENARIOS
THAT ARE REPRESENTED BY THE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR NORTH, WITH THE
PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THE REGION MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SECOND
SOLUTION DEEPENS THE CANADIAN TROUGH OVER THE REGION, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER INTO
OUR REGION. DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR
THE FIRST SOLUTION WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WHILE THE
AI GFS AND AI ECMWF FAVOR THE SECOND SOLUTION, DEEPENING THE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION.
CURRENT FORECASTS STRIKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ID-NV BORDER. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST ALSO INTRODUCES INCREASED PRECIPITATION (20-40% CHANCE)
OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON
THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 510 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
GENERALLY VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5 KFT MSL TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 6-8 KFT MSL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND UP TO
35 KT FROM KMUO TO KTWF, TAPERING OFF TO VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW-N 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TO LATE SAT MORNING, CREATING
LOW VFR-MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: NW 10-15 KT WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, DECREASING BACK TO NW 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING. LOW VFR TO IFR IN RAIN/SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY. MTN
OBSCURATION. MAINLY VFR AND DRY SUNDAY, EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS: 4-5KFT MSL SAT AM RISING TO 6-
8KFT MSL BY SAT PM. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-15 KT, WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER KMUO-KTWF-KJER AREAS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SA
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