703
FXUS65 KBOI 180428
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
928 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM MCCALL TO THE
OWYHEES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
SNOW WITH THESE SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST, WINDS
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE MAGIC
VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE. NO
UPDATES.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR-IFR IN SCATTERED
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY NEAR KBNO-
KBKE-KMYL AND KTWF-KJER. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: S-SE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO W-NW
10 TO 20 KT BY WED/12Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S-SW 30-50 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH A 30% CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED/18Z, CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS: SE 10-15 KT SHIFTING TO W-NW AFTER WED/08Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE TONIGHT, BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AND
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. THE GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON, WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH THESE SHOWERS. ANY
STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY SNOW AND
GRAUPEL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND
SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW, WHILE LOCATIONS ABOVE
5500 FEET COULD SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, OCCASIONAL RAIN, SNOW, OR GRAUPEL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET.
BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO
MONTANA AS THE REMAINING COLD FRONT EXITS INTO EASTERN IDAHO.
THIS INTRODUCES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
PATTERN FOR TREASURE VALLEY SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED, WITH A 90
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TREASURE VALLEY SEES LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW, THOUGH LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD SEE UP
TO HALF AN INCH. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY COULD ALSO SEE UP TO
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW COVERAGE
DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO GREATLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE,
THOUGH DRIVERS SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SNOW OFF AND ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.
BY THURSDAY, THE REGION REMAINS IN A COOL AND UNSTABLE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON. EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. PRECIP OUT OF THESE SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO BE
SNOW WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SHORT TERM. AS THAT LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL WARM US UP QUICKLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS STARTING
NEAR 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND RISING TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, ANOTHER
STRONG ALASKAN LOW AMPLIFIES AS IT SITS OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THIS LOW FURTHER
WEST, REDUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND
STRENGTHENING THE WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS STRONG LOW REJOINING THE
JET STREAM AND BRINGING MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. A 50-80%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4-5 KFT
MSL MEANS MANY MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE SNOW QUICKLY FOLLOWING
THE PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JM
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