338  
FXUS65 KBOI 152021  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
221 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
 
 
MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS, MUCH  
LIKE LAST NIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST  
WINDS ALOFT SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN,  
HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. THIS IS MOST  
LIKELY IN BAKER COUNTY/OR AND VALLEY COUNTY/ID THIS EVENING,  
THEN IN VALLEY COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL  
PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP  
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS, BUT OREGON  
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES THERE. BY  
TUESDAY NIGHT STABILIZATION WILL REACH IDAHO. NO MORE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR  
WITH TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.  
THE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND  
LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO THURSDAY. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT WILL BE DRIER. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR IN SOUTHERN AREAS  
AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE WEST OR NORTHWEST  
10-15 MPH.  
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
 
THE DRY  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD AND A STRONG RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE  
STARTING TO SHOW SOME HINTS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY  
INTO THE REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE  
TO NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY CLIMB TO A  
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING  
THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN SW IDAHO.  
SURFACE WINDS, WEST-NORTHWEST 10-15KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS  
20-25KTS. GUSTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS OF 35-40KTS. WINDS  
ALOFT TO 10K FEET MSL, SOUTHWEST 15-20KTS.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...LC  
LONG TERM....JC  
AVIATION.....JC  
 
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