464
FXUS65 KBOI 170329
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
829 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
DISCUSSION
COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH BOI AT 5 PM, AND RELATING
THAT EVENT TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
MCCALL/ID AROUND MIDNIGHT. BUT MCCALL ALREADY ACCUMULATED 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW BY 8 PM MST, SO WE HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS FOR
LARGER SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN MOST OF OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE NOW HAVE 6-7 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
MCCALL THROUGH 5 AM MST TUESDAY, AND EVEN A SLUSHY HALF INCH IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY TOWARD MORNING, WHERE ROADS WILL STAY WET.
THESE CHANGES WILL NOT AFFECT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AS AMOUNTS ARE STILL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NEARER TO THE
UPPER END. REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH
LATEST MODELS SO NO FURTHER UPDATES FOR NOW.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR BECOMING MVFR-IFR THANKS TO EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW BY TUE/8-10Z OVER VALLEY FLOORS, WITH BRIEF LIFR-VLIFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS START AT 4K-5K FT MSL,
DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT EXCEPT S-SE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM TUE/07-09Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW
35-50 KT.
KBOI...VFR. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR TO IFR, WITH BRIEF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM TUE/08-10Z. BRIEF LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT BECOMING NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT ALONG COLD FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE TURN TO
ACTIVE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ENCROACHING FARTHER INTO EASTERN OREGON,
WITH THE RADAR FILLING IN. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A PEAK GUST OF 44 MPH RECORDED IN TWIN
FALLS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH SW
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN (AIDED BY AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL GET STEERED OVER OUR AREA). THE PERIOD OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR LOW ELEVATION VALLEYS MOST OF THIS PRECIP
WILL FALL AS RAIN, AS SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE BETWEEN
4,500-6,500 FT (LOWEST WEST). WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO
VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT, SNOW/WINTRY MIX ISN'T OUT OF THE
PICTURE FOR LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BE WHEN PRECIPITATION IS ENDING, SO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE
STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY, EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW
CAN IMPACT VISIBILITY.
IN TERMS OF LIQUID TOTALS, LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE
BETWEEN 0.05-0.30 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING (LOWEST IN EASTERN OREGON WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY CROSSED). IN TERMS OF SNOW, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED, WITH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
ABOVE 6,000 FEET AND 2-6 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO THE CAMAS PRAIRIE, WHILE SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE (1-3 INCHES), WIND GUSTS OF UP
TO 55 MPH CREATE A BLOWING SNOW CONCERN.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, AN INCOMING TROUGH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS OF -30C TO -40C COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW/GRAUPEL
SHOWERS (10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDER/LIGHTNING IN SHOWERS). THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AS WELL AS GUSTS UP 45 MPH. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL BE VARIABLE BECAUSE OF THE SHOWERY NATURE, BUT
LOCATIONS IMPACTED COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 0.5-1.0 INCH.
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6,000 FT OVER THE COURSE OF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SNOW/GRAUPEL
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AT NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OR
INTO NV ON FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR ALOFT,
ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE CENTER OF THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES, COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION. A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS THIS EVOLVES, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOWERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
EXTENDED AS NBM AND WPC ARE TOO WET FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE AREA IS UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT
SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND LATE MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY
IDZ011-013-015-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY IDZ016-030.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TUESDAY
ORZ063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....KA
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