851
FXUS65 KBOI 142142
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
242 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAIN WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG AS A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INLAND AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE TAP AND
WILL BOOST OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 0.10-0.50" OF RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR UP TO 1" IN SOME LOCATIONS
DUE TO SURFACE/MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER, AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL BOOST
TOTALS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
LOWERING FROM 8000-9000 FEET EARLY SUNDAY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVE NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH THAT WORKED TO STEER THAT
SHORTWAVE NE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW OF THE SOCAL COAST.
ROUGHLY 45% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (MOSTLY OUT OF THE GFS SUITE)
SHOW THIS SOLUTION, WITH 35% OF MEMBERS (MOSTLY OUT OF THE EURO
SUITE) KEEPING THE TROUGH OPEN AND SWINGING IT ACROSS OUR AREA.
IN THE TWO SCENARIOS, THE GFS WOULD KEEP OUR AREA WARMER AND
DRIER WHEREAS THE EURO WOULD KEEP US COOLER AND WETTER. HOWEVER,
IN THE GFS SOLUTIONS, A SHORTWAVE GRAZES US TO THE NORTH,
KEEPING IN PHASE WITH THE SOCAL LOW. ALL THAT SAID, THIS GIVES
WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (20-60%) HANGING ON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAJOR MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW BRIEF RIDGING
BUILDING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRY OUT OUR AREA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATE NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH TO BE RESOLVED IN REGARDS
TO EXACT TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHER
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE
WARMER SCENARIOS, WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD
RESULT IN IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES. SURFACE WINDS: SW 5-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, EXCEPT VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE
SNAKE PLAIN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
SE UNDER 8KT OVERNIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7-8KFT MSL. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SW-SE 5-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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