987
FXUS65 KBOI 151127
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
527 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TODAY BUT MUCH LESS WINDY THAN YESTERDAY.
- WARM FRONT WILL BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
- STRONG WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 326 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
YESTERDAY'S WINDSTORM AND COLD FRONT HAVE PASSED, LEAVING A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MUCH CALMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
IN HARNEY COUNTY/OR WHERE COOLING WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN OUR CWA TONIGHT, AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH TUESDAY ANOTHER 7
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN
SOUTHWEST IDAHO, WITH EVEN FURTHER WARMING TO FOLLOW.
THE WARMING WILL BE DUE TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. A WARM FRONT WILL START THE
PROCESS WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
IN NORTHERN-MOST MOUNTAINS OF OUR CWA. THE REAL WARMING WILL
BEGIN MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES OUT. MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE BREEZY IN THE SNAKE BASIN AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS
WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH, BUT TUESDAY WILL
BE CALMER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 326 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL THREATEN OR BREAK DAILY
WARM TEMP RECORDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. MANY LOWLAND AREAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHILE MOUNTAINS STAY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES COME ALONGSIDE MILD
WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND DRY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGING 20-30% IN VALLEYS AND 30-50% IN MOUNTAINS.
SOME RELIEF IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE 7-DAY FORECAST, AS
SUNDAY'S SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN ALASKAN LOW THAT DRIFTS
SOUTH. WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW REMAINS NEAR JUNEAU, THAT
SOUTHWARD DRIFT WILL PUSH THE JET STREAM AND COLDER HEIGHTS
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS, AND MORE
NOTABLY A COOLING TREND SET TO CONTINUE PAST THE LONG TERM.
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY AT
THE START OF THIS COOLDOWN, WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST SPREAD
OF 20 DEGREES. THE WARMEST MEMBERS STILL SHOW A STEADY COOLDOWN,
HOWEVER, SO EVEN IF SUNDAY IS WARMER THAN FORECAST THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COOLING TREND SETTING IN.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 523 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING TODAY, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN E
OR AND CENTRAL ID THIS AFTERNOON. MOST PRECIP IN ID WILL FALL
AS SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3-4 KFT MSL, BUT LEVELS AROUND
4-6 KFT MSL IN OR WILL BRING MIXED PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS: NW
5-15 KT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN, LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 20-35 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15
KT, SOME VARIABILITY THIS MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM
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