807
FXUS65 KBOI 261227
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
627 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TODAY AS A COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 253 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR THIS MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE LOW LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE, AND
PRECIPITATION IS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH EASTERN
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS MORNING, AND WILL SERVE AS AN
INITIAL FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BEGINNING MID
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30-35 MPH. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS THIS EVENING WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORM ACTIVITY CLOSELY.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER IDAHO THIS WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO LOWER 60S IN THE WARMEST
SPOTS, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 6500-7000 FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PLACE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 253 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT A BROAD-SCALE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, WITH ONLY A
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH NORMAL BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH THE THROUGH IN
PLACE, IT STANDS TO REASON THAT ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 622 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY VFR, WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS NEAR STORMS, ALONG WITH OBSCURED TERRAIN. OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 30-40 KT POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: NW 10-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-35 KT FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING AND IN VIRGA/SHOWERS. THEN VARIABLE 5-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
VARIABLE 5-20 KT.
KBOI...GENERALLY VFR. FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AM THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PEAK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. OUTFLOW WINDS OF
30-40 KT POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: NW-N 10-20
KT, GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH VIRGA/SHOWERS/COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THEN VARIABLE UNDER 8 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW, ESP OVER MTNS.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS TEMPORARILY LOWERING TO 6500-7500FT
MSL SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
IDZ400-420-423-424-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TODAY TO 6 AM MDT
/5 AM PDT/ SATURDAY FOR ORZ670>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM....MC
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