697
FXUS65 KBOI 042004
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
204 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
- A MINOR DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER.
- COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY,
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN THE REGION TODAY, TOMORROW, AND
TUESDAY. HAZE AND LOCALIZED FOG/SMOKE WILL OCCUR NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS, PRIMARILY NEAR MCCALL, ID AND BURNS, OR TONIGHT. THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
A 5-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH IN ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. LIGHT, TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW GUSTS. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ON FRIDAY, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL START IMPACTING THE AREA FIRST BY INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
MPH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT
15 DEGREES WHEN COMPARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DECREASES BY
SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE HIGHEST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO (20-40%
CHANCE) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 1120 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 12 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-W 5-15
KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
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