109
FXUS65 KBOI 072008
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
208 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED VERY WARM, DRY DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER, WITH SHOWERS, SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN IDAHO NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WARM, DRY DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS,
NEAR DAILY RECORD HIGHS. NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE COOL WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE LOWER SNAKE BASIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW NOW FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH EASTERN OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY. THIS TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE WEST OF
THE TRACK FORECAST BY YESTERDAY'S MODELS. THE WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT MEANS THAT COLDEST AIR WILL PASS THROUGH OREGON,
WHILE IDAHO REMAINS UNDER MILDER BUT ALSO MOISTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE IN IDAHO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHERE THE
WESTERN BOUNDARY OF PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY SET UP.
IN ANY CASE, IDAHO LOOKS WETTER THAN OREGON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ~20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY'S MAX TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO ABOVE 7500 FEET MSL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN MAX TEMPERATURES LOWERING BY AN ADDITIONAL 5-10
DEGREES. HIGH ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE,
HURRICANE REMNANTS ORIGINATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CARRY A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID-SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY,
WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. WHILE THE EXACT PATH OF MOISTURE IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN, HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR NOTABLE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE SW IDAHO HIGHLANDS, MAGIC VALLEY,
CAMAS PRAIRIE, AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWER
CHANCES FARTHER WEST AND NORTH. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAPER MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE PARENT TROUGH AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXIT THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A
SECONDARY, COLDER TROUGH COULD USHER INTO E OREGON AND SW IDAHO
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHILE OTHER MEMBERS SUGGEST A SLIGHT
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN DRIER, WARMER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 1120 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR AND CLEAR, EXCEPT AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE REDUCING VISIBILITY
NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 12 KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-NW 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR AND CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE AROUND 4 KT,
BECOMING NW 4-8 KT AFTER 07/19Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR IDZ423-426.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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