707
FXUS65 KBOI 110347
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
DISCUSSION
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT, WITH
VALLEY AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MOUNTAIN/EASTERN OR AREAS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE
BAND OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING, WITH RAIN LESS THAN 0.05" FOR VALLEYS
AND SNOWFALL LESS THAN 1" FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A BAND OF
VFR-MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL IMPACT MOST SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KMYL LINE.
PATCHY FOG AT KMYL SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 07Z WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: E-SE 10-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10 KFT MSL: S
10-20 KT.
KBOI...MAINLY VFR. 50% CHANCE OF MVFR RAIN BETWEEN 11/12Z AND 11/18Z
AS A BAND MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH. SKIES CLEARING WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH 50% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING. SURFACE WINDS: SE 10-15 KT WITH
INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SYSTEM REMAINS
OFF THE CA COAST AND WILL ROTATE JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE BAY
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE TREASURE AND
MAGIC VALLEYS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
NV OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL OUT OVER SE OR AND
SOUTHWEST ID ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500-5000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY THURSDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING.
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND COOL AIR ALOFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
FRIDAY KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WEST
COAST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND AMPLIFIES, IT PICKS UP A
LARGE FETCH OF MOISTURE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH STALLS OFF THE COAST, WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THAT TROUGH KEEPS
TEMPS WARM. MONDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND, WE MOVE INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE FLOW, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TO 30-50% (HIGHER IN HIGH TERRAIN). AS IT DOES SO, A
SECONDARY LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES INTO THE LOW,
SHIFTING THE POSITION OF THE CORE OF THE LOW BACK TO THE COAST
AND STALLING ITS MOVEMENT FOR A WETTER TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS
STILL 7 DAYS OUT, TUESDAY HAS A 40-70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG ALMOST ALL MODELS ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BRINGING THAT MOISTURE TO THE AREA. WITH THE
SECONDARY TROUGH MERGING INTO THE MAIN LOW, SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
4-5 KFT MSL, EVEN THOUGH GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 10TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD OF TOTAL SNOW DURING THE SATURDAY TO TUESDAY
PERIOD IS 2-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 0.1 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THAT SPREAD
CURRENTLY LIES WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JY
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
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