372
FXUS65 KBOI 150244
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019
DISCUSSION
SMOKE FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE HAZE WORDING WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME WAS MOST
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY TO BREEZY
WIND POSSIBLE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS AFTER SUN/17Z. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SOUTHWEST 20-30 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BACK STRONGLY AS A STRONG AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACNW COAST. THIS WILL GIVE US A HOT
SUNDAY AS WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
SPREAD FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN SUNDAY, WITH
READINGS DROPPING 10 TO 20 DEGREES. THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE
CHANGES WILL BE IN EASTERN OREGON WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 8000 FEET ON THURSDAY BRINGING A DUSTING
OF SNOW TO THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTERWARDS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KB
AVIATION.....SH
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JB/JB
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