863
FXUS65 KBOI 012136
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
236 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION (80-100% CHANCE IN ALL AREAS). TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY, UPPER WEISER
RIVER, AND BAKER COUNTY. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT, AND
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
THEREFORE, WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW TO CONTINUE. IN THE MOUNTAINS, A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 3000-4000 FEET MSL, BUT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG ROADWAYS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO A COUPLE INCHES, THEREFORE HELD
OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, ABOVE 6000-7000
FEET, 3-8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, 0.1-0.5" OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY 5-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE COAST BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MILD AIR MASS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 5500-7000 FEET.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLE WEATHER FOR THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONGST BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS
ARE NOT FULLY CLEAR, GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
BY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A 90+% CHANCE OF
SNOWFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT BY MID WEEK IN CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
PRECIPITATION INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR ANTICIPATED AS WELL. BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED
CATEGORIES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS IMPACTING SITES ON A
LINE FROM KMYL/KEUL AND AREAS TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN OREGON.
A 40-80% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN E-OREGON (NEAR
KBNO/KBKE/KONO) THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 4-8
KFT MSL (HIGHEST SOUTH). SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 12KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SSE 10-20 KT.
KBOI...GENERALLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (10-20% CHANCE) BETWEEN 00Z
AND 12Z. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, EXPECT FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE
WEATHER WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR RETURNING BY MID DAY SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY IDZ033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ THIS
EVENING ORZ063-064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY ORZ062.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
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