058
FXUS65 KBOI 101244 CCA
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
644 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 254 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FRIDAY. AS A GULF OF ALASKA LOW DIGS
DOWN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
MU CAPE VALUES OF 500+ J/KG. THE INSTABILITY, PAIRED WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE
VARIABLES WILL BE OVER OWYHEE (ID) AND MALHEUR(OR) COUNTIES,
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES AREA-WIDE.
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR
AREA. COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LOWER VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S) WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER,
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW
WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL COME ROUGHLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM BAKER CITY, OR THROUGH THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY, AS THE MAIN LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING
YET AGAIN, COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPENSATE FOR THE REDUCED HEAT AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER 10-25% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA. THESE WILL BE WEAKER IN NATURE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRATIFORM SHOWERS; HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
80+ PERCENT COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW AND ITS PROGRESSION OVER OUR AREA (SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY), IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1 INCH ACROSS
E-OREGON (UP TO 1.5-2 INCHES OVER THE STEENS MOUNTAIN), AND
0.25-0.5 INCHES ACROSS SW IDAHO (UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES OVER THE
OWYHEES AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS).
LOCATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET MSL IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE 2-8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 254 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM, AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT A 40-90% CHANCE, HIGHEST
OVER TERRAIN. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF COME TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND CROSSING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AGAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LEANING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 620 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BEGIN AROUND FRI/19Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10 KFT MSL: W-SW 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS (30-40% CHANCE) FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL. SURFACE WINDS: SE UNDER 7 KT THIS MORNING,
BECOMING NW 8-12 KT FRI/PM.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY. STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MORE
LIMITED ON SUNDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MTN SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW LEVELS 6500-8000 FEET SATURDAY,
LOWERING TO 5000-6500 ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 5-10 KT
SATURDAY AND W-SW 10-15 KT SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KT
BOTH DAYS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....NF
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