484
FXUS65 KBOI 152036
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
236 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, THEN
SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT.
- SUBFREEZING MORNING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY IN THE AGRICULTURAL AREAS.
- WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH SE OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IDAHO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT IS 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER END GUSTS OF
UP TO 50 MPH FROM STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
COLDER AIR WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. THIS
WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WHILE MOUNTAINS SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1 TO 3 INCHES) ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY
WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW. IN THE SNAKE PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE
WARNING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY (BOISE METRO AND POINTS EAST)
AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. FEEL LESS CERTAIN ABOUT A FREEZE IN
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ID/OR
BORDER.
FRIDAY IS NOTABLY COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. EVEN WARMER SPOTS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WILL SEE WIND
CHILL VALUES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WITH THE
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.
THIS WILL BE A COLDER AND LONGER DURATION FREEZE THAN WHAT WE
SEE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY
AND LIGHTER WINDS LESSEN THE CHILL. ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRODUCTS FOR
NOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST REGION WILL BRING WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY MORNING
WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OVER OTHER
AREAS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE PEAK TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED THE ARRIVAL TO LATE
MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SE OR AREAS. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND SHOULD STAY INTACT THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 20-40% AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GENERALLY PROJECTS HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
INCHES CLOSER, BECOMING W-NW FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 1154 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN AND IFR/LIFR IN MTN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
5-7KFT MSL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHARP WIND SHIFTS AND INTENSIFY
PRECIP AFTER 20Z, WITH MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. A 25%
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWERING TO VALLEY FLOORS FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE-SW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT, THEN W-
NW 15-30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 22Z. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP NW WIND SHIFT,
HEAVIER PRECIP, TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR, AND POTENTIAL FOR
GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS: SE 10-15 KT THIS MORNING, THEN NW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ012-014-
016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM MDT
FRIDAY FOR IDZ012-014-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ015-030.
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM MDT /3 AM PDT/ TO 10 AM MDT /9 AM
PDT/ THURSDAY FOR ORZ064.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ THURSDAY NIGHT TO
10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ FRIDAY FOR ORZ064.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ061-063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY
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