764
FXUS65 KBOI 072354
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
454 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD SUNDAY, THEN COOLER WITH INCREASING WINDS,
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE EXTENDED, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 251 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE JET WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
IN MTN VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE BETTER VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THESE AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING
A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL SEE A
50-80% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW DROPS TO 20-40% ACROSS THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS, AND LESS THAN 10% ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OPEN TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE I-84 CORRIDOR WILL SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. IN THIS PATTERN, THE WIND MAX ALOFT
WILL FAVOR THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
MONDAY, OR NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 251 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD, ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER CANADA WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
COOL AIR WILL STILL PERMEATE THROUGHOUT THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED PREVIOUSLY, KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION. THE IMPACT FROM THIS IS THE STRONG WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY (AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS), THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS STRONGER THAN 30 MPH.
IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE, THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS
STRONGER THAN 40 MPH. WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF LIGHT
SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, THE PACIFIC HIGH SITTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BUILDS IN OVERHEAD, WITH CLUSTER SOLUTIONS
DISAGREEING ON INTENSITY AND AMPLITUDE. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BRING
WARM AIR BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH VALLEY FLOORS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAWIDE, NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP CHANCES (30-60%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE FROM 1.5-3.0 KFT MSL WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 4.5-
6.5KFT MSL WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE AFTERNOONS, THIS TIME AFFECTING MORE OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
CENTRAL IDAHO AS SURFACE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST, WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH CHANCES FROM 50-90%. CURRENT MODELS SHIELD THE
TREASURE VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FROM THESE STRONG GUSTS, BUT
KEEP THEM BREEZY. A PARTICULAR FORECAST POINT OF CONCERN IS THE
CAMAS PRAIRIE AGAIN DURING THIS TIME.
ONCE FRIDAY ROLLS AROUND, SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OVERHEAD PATTERN EMERGES, WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
GREATLY IN QUESTION. TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS EXIST: ONE IS THE RIDGE
STRENGTH HOLDS AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM, OR THE COOLER AIR MAKES
ANOTHER OSCILLATION SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THE NBM MAX TEMPERATURE
RANGE ON FRIDAY FOR BOISE IS FROM 48 TO 72 (25TH PERCENTILE TO 75TH
PERCENTILE), WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE UNCERTAINTY WELL AND SHOWCASES THE
TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS LISTED. THESE SCENARIOS WILL ALSO DICTATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
REGARDLESS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 438 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
MAINLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOWER POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LOWER VALLEYS
ACROSS SE OREGON AND IN SW IDAHO WEST OF KEUL. SURFACE WINDS: W
TO NW 5-15 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING,
THEN SW-NW 5-15 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER
HIGHER/EXPOSED TERRAIN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW TO N 15-30
KT, BECOMING W 20-40 KT AFTER SUN/12Z.
KBOI...VFR WITH DECREASING LOW STRATUS. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-12
KT, BECOMING SE 5-10 KT THIS EVENING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CH
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