220
FXUS65 KBOI 141207
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
607 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AREA-WIDE TODAY, THEN
CHANCES REMAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT BURN SCARS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 245 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, A HEALTHY ROUND OF MOISTURE IS
ARRIVING FROM NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE INFLUX OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY EXTEND ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO, BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF BREEZY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE, WITH GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY OVER
1.00", AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
WITH TIME AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN, AND A MARGINAL RISK
(AT LEAST 5%) OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ACROSS E OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING AND
INSTABILITY TO STRENGTHEN NEAR THE OR-NV AND ID-NV BORDERS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIFT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE NV-OR BORDER, THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS IN RESPONSE TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
START ENCROACHING ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NUDGE THE BULK
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TOWARD THE EAST. AS A RESULT, DRIER AND
SUNNIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL. LINGERING MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND, WITH BEST CHANCES (10%) ACROSS E OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HEATING, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL
BECOME A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
HEATING UP A FEW DEGREES MORE. TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED 100
DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND WEISER BASIN. THE PATH OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO SHIFT WESTWARD ON THURSDAY, INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IDAHO
ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 245 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON FRIDAY, AS HOT, SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATES OVER E OREGON AND SW IDAHO. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL FAVOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ABOVE NORMAL. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND, MODELS ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE PACIFIC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO BC/ALBERTA CANADA, WHICH MAY DISRUPT OUR ACCESS TO THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. DEPENDING ON THE REBOUND EFFORTS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, EXPECT HEAT RISK TO HOVER IN THE MODERATE AND
MAJOR CATEGORIES EACH DAY, AFFECTING MOST INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE
TO HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 556 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AM, MAINLY E OREGON AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, COVERAGE BECOMES
ISOLATED/SCATTERED, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (15% CHANCE) IN
E OREGON, NEAR THE ID-NV BORDER, AND OVER CENTRAL ID MTNS.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 12 KT, EXCEPT BECOMING W-NW 10-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT FROM KBOI TO KJER BY LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-S 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
AT TERMINAL BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN 5% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN VICINITY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-15 KT.
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY/MID MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH
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