795
FXUS65 KBOI 111231
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
631 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY.
- VERY HOT TUESDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
- LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 320 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING OVER OUR AREA EARLY MORNING WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SNAKE PLAIN TODAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS. CONSIDERABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH LOWER-ELEVATION VALLEYS
EXPECTED TO SEE PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S; MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS.
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SLIGHT GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT ARRIVAL
TIMING AND BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A 20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL WILL BEGIN A COOLING
TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 320 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY.
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONING OF THIS TROUGH SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST ID WHICH WOULD BE MUCH
WETTER AND COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THIS TROUGH TRACK
COMES TO FRUITION, WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST OR AND SOUTHWEST
ID. EVENTUALLY THE MODELS AGREE ON COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND SNOW LEVELS OF 5000 TO 6500 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED NORTH OF A LINE FROM BAKER CITY OR TO MCCALL ID.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 629 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-15 KT, GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR KGNG KTWF KJER. WINDS ALOFT 10KFT MSL: W-SW
15-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS NW 5-10KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT MON
AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....KA
SHORT TERM...JY
LONG TERM....KA
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