145
FXUS65 KBOI 010307
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2023
.DISCUSSION..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED BASED
ON THIS TREND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER BEFORE
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES FROM
OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL IDAHO AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
ALSO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO OREGON
ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
IN SOUTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
AND SOUTH OF KMUO BEFORE 01/06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: MAINLY W-NW 5-15 KT EXCEPT 15-25 KT IN
THE KTWF/KJER AREA BEFORE 01/04Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL:
W-SW 10-20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 01/12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 2 PM MDT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WELL UNDERWAY ALONG A MOIST AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH HELLS CANYON.
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN OWYHEE
COUNTY, AND ONE STORM WAS ABOUT TO ENTER THE TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR THE CANYON/ADA COUNTY LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THERE WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MOIST AXIS. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR COMING INTO OREGON FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN THE BASE OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
COME INLAND ACROSS OREGON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES AGAIN THURSDAY,
WHILE OTHERS AGAIN FORM IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRIER IN THE SOUTH, BUT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARE DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS THE MOIST AXIS STALLS THERE. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, PUSHING DRY AIR INTO EASTERN OR AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FROM THE WEST. THE DRIER AIR WILL TEMPORARILY LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY, AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN ID. DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN,
A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CA MONDAY WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO SOUTHEAST
OVER OUR REGION AND REINTRODUCE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA
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