607
FXUS65 KBOI 022117
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
217 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH THE AREA REMAINING DRY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS, WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP OR REMAIN
TONIGHT. THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY, BAKER VALLEY, AND LONG
VALLEY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY EVENING, FAVORING THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED 700 MB WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE A
RAIN SHADOWING EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY, LIMITING RAINFALL
FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6500 FEET
MSL IN THE NORTH TO 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN OUR OREGON ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
WINDS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH DURING THIS
TIME. THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO
THE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
ALIGNED ON A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA COME
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH IT (15-30% CHANCE IN AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN,
40-80% IN THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BRING A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY, BARRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AS THE INITIAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN COME LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY,
AND NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
COOLING TEMPERATURES. COOLING TEMPERATURE AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE PLAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT VALLEY FLOORS...HOWEVER AS THESE
SNOW LEVELS DROP PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE
AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE PLAIN.
TERRAIN, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS A DIFFERENT STORY. WITH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS HAVING A 40-60% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, THE
HIGHER UP IN ELEVATION YOU GO, THE MORE SNOWFALL THAT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS HAVING A 70% OR GREATER CHANCE OF
SEEING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH LOW STRATUS OVER
LOWER ELEVATION/SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT,
WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS, MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN FOG/LOW
STRATUS. SHOWERS INCREASING W-E SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS: 6-7
KFT MSL. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10KT, BECOMING S-SW 5-15 KT
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S-
W 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A 30% CHANCE OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
AFTER SAT/00Z, MOSTLY LIKELY TIMING BETWEEN SAT/00-06Z. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AND FOOTHILL OBSCURATION IN FOG/LOW STRATUS. ALTHOUGH
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL WORK TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT BY SAT/06Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LOW IFR/LIFR CLOUDS AND FOG ON SATURDAY IN THE
VALLEYS, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIDDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SHOWERS INCREASING W-E SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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