515
FXUS65 KBOI 080915
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN IDAHO.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- WARMING AND DRYING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WARMER TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN IDAHO, AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD, BEFORE A NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH COMES IN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, WHILE THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WARM ABOUT 10
DEGREES, AND EASTERN OREGON ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS
INCREASING SOONER THERE. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN IN HARNEY COUNTY
AROUND 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
IDAHO BORDER BY 6 PM MDT, AND TO TWIN FALLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE TROUGH LOOKS MOIST AND ENERGETIC NOW WHILE IT IS STILL
OFFSHORE BUT LATEST MODELS WEAKEN IT WHEN IT GETS TO OUR CWA
TONIGHT. EVEN SO, ALL PARTS OF OUR CWA SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME
RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A 15 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. BUT EASTERN
OR WILL ALREADY BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON TUESDAY AND EVEN WESTERN
ID SHOULD START CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN THE
CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS WHERE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTAL FORECAST PCPN HAS ALSO DECREASED,
NOW ONLY .25 TO .50 INCH IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND LESS THAN .20 INCH ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO FORECAST SHALLOWER THAN BEFORE, AND WITH LESS COLD AIR
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL NOT DIP AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LIGHT
SNOW WILL STILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS, BUT LESS THAN
ONE INCH IS FORECAST BELOW 6000 FEET. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
QUITE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN OPEN AREAS, AND POST-FRONTAL WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME AT LEAST THAT STRONG TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE
IDAHO SIDE WHERE GUSTS SHOULD REACH 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MODELS FORECAST IN OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY HAS NOW BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF OUR CWA SO ONLY OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD STILL HAVE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR CWA COOL WEDNESDAY,
BUT THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING 80
DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND 60S THROUGH 70S ELSEWHERE.
CLEAR SKIES AND FURTHER WARMING ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT THE WARMING WILL BE LIMITED BY NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1148 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENTERING EASTERN OREGON BY MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, CAUSING MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION IN PRECIPITATION AND LOW
CEILINGS. A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES EAST. SNOW LEVELS 8000-9000 FT MSL.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
S-SE 7-12 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10KFT: SW 15-20 KT UNTIL 18Z MONDAY, INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
AFTER 18Z.
KBOI...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS:
SE LESS THAN 10 KT, BECOMING SE 7-12 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER
15Z MONDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....CH
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