672  
FXUS65 KBOI 242049  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
249 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
 
INCREASING CLOUDS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECEDE THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC  
STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORM  
LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATING  
SNOWFALL DOWN TO 4000 FEET ON SUNDAY.  
 
THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES ON SATURDAY: THE FIRST  
PASSAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN UP TO  
7500 FEET, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER SECOND FRONT SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH  
COLDER AIR AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW, HEAVIEST IN NORTHERN  
AREAS. WIND MAY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL FEATURE, WITH MODELS  
AVERAGING 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS  
SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR  
COUNTIES, THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN HIGHLAND ZONES. IN  
ADDITION, SPC HAS ADDED MOST OF THE AREA INTO A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.  
 
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS CAME IN ABOUT 20  
PERCENT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,  
LIKELY DUE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON  
SATURDAY. SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEES DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL  
WINDS COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE  
TREASURE VALLEY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH UP TO 0.20 INCH IS POSSIBLE.  
RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO  
NEAR 4000 FEET. HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6500 FEET) COULD SEE  
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWER  
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SEE FAR LESS, WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES  
POSSIBLE ABOVE 4500 FEET. MCCALL HAS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE  
TO EXCEED 4 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY.  
   
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT  
WILL CAUSE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PUSHING WELL OUT OF OUR AREA,  
GIVING WAY TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING STARTING  
MONDAY. BEFORE THIS PROGRESSES INTO A MORE POTENT RIDGE OVER THE  
AREA, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE,  
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES MENTIONABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
WHILE I THINK THE POPS ARE A BIT OVERDONE BY TAKING PREVIOUS MODEL  
RUNS INTO ACCOUNT, I DO BELIEVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE GIVEN THE  
SETUP. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY RAISE FROM 3500-5000 FT MSL TO 5000-7000  
FT MSL BY TUESDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE  
WELL OVERHEAD. THE EFFECT THIS HAS ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
PASSING ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IS SHOWN DIFFERENTLY IN LONG  
RANGE MODELS, WHERE THE GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE  
ECMWF WHICH KEEPS IT WELL NORTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY, IT IS  
UNSURPRISING THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL POPULATING IN OUR  
NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES TO  
THE EAST BY THU/12Z, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN  
BEFORE YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR. CLOUD CEILINGS LOWERING GRADUALLY LATE  
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN SE OR AROUND SAT/00Z AND SW  
ID AROUND SAT/06Z. LLWS CONCERN FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH PASSING  
COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: S-SE 10-15 KT  
WITH GUSTS 20- 25 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 25-40 KT.  
 
KBOI...VFR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY. MVFR CHANCES HEIGHTEN  
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AFTER SAT/10Z. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE  
GREATLY AFTER SAT/12Z. LLWS IS A CONCERN AFTER COLD FRONT  
PASSAGE, MAXIMIZED DURING PERIODS EMPHASIZED IN TAF. SURFACE  
WINDS: SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH  
SAT/07Z.  
 
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3500-5000 FEET MSL  
SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG  
IN VALLEYS THROUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS  
SW-SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT FOR MOST AREAS. LLWS  
WIDESPREAD BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGEST  
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN OR AND MOUNTAINS  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BAKER CITY 38 58 25 48 / 80 100 50 60  
BOISE 48 61 39 51 / 30 90 70 60  
BURNS 35 57 21 45 / 80 90 30 70  
CALDWELL 47 64 37 54 / 50 90 60 60  
FAIRFIELD 32 49 23 43 / 0 70 90 50  
IDAHO CITY 35 55 25 48 / 40 100 90 70  
JEROME 43 56 36 45 / 0 30 70 50  
MCCALL 34 46 25 39 / 80 100 90 80  
MOUNTAIN HOME 45 61 36 51 / 10 60 80 60  
ONTARIO 45 62 35 53 / 70 90 50 60  
ROME 41 62 31 50 / 50 70 50 60  
TWIN FALLS 44 60 35 47 / 0 30 70 60  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY IDZ015-029.  
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/  
SATURDAY ORZ061-063.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...JDS  
LONG TERM....CH  
AVIATION.....CH  
 
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