469
FXUS65 KBOI 040016
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
516 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (<20% CHANCE) WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON.
- GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LOW STRATUS DECK IS LINGERING NEAR GOODING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KICK UP ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND BAKER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO BAKER COUNTY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR INITIALLY, TAPERING
OFF AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY (100-250 J/KG OF CAPE)
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME STRONGER SHOWERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH MOVING THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND THE
MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM COULD BRING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG OUTFLOWS OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN STRENGTH OF GUSTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE BACK END OF A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, CONTINUING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY. A BROAD
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REMNANT UPPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP A 20-40%
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERNMOST END OF OUR
AREA THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF
THE POLAR JET STREAM HANGING OVER THE NORTHWEST REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST JET STREAK WILL LIKELY
BRING A COLD FRONT STEERING ACROSS OUR AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IT TREKS
ACROSS THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MONDAY/TUESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE COOLING
TO AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL COME TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 515 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR, EXCEPT PATCHY FOG OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY EARLY
MORNING. AFTER WED/12Z, COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
FROM NW TO SE. WIDESPREAD LOW VFR TO IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN,
AND IFR-LIFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS 5.5-6.5KFT MSL WED
AM, LOWERING TO 4.5-5.5KFT BY WED PM. LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE
WED PM. MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED WITH FRONT. SURFACE WINDS: S-SE
5-15 KT, SHIFTING TO W-NW 10-25 KT WITH 25-45 KT GUSTS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE WED. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR THROUGH WED AM. COLD FRONT WITH RAIN ARRIVING
BETWEEN WED/18Z-20Z. RAIN BECOMING SHOWERY BY WED EVENING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE WED PM. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DURING
HEAVIER RAIN. FOOTHILLS OBSCURED WITH PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS:
S-SE 5-15 KT, SHIFTING TO W-NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT
WITH FRONT WED AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....JY
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