191
FXUS65 KBOI 201632
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
932 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
DISCUSSION
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE
EXITING EAST THIS MORNING. WARMING AND DRYING WITH BREEZY SOUTH
OR EAST WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INLAND AND REPLACES THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH. WARM-FRONTAL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. NEXT PCPN AND COLD FRONT DUE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING BUT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS UPPER
FLOW WILL STAY WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS CLOUDS CAUSING
LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW
WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND CLOUDS RISE TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA. FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BECOMING SW-NW 5-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT NEAR KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR SETS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BECOMING NW 4-9 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
LOCAL IFR FOG IN MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING. SURFACE WINDS:
SE 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, EXCEPT IN HIGHLANDS AND THE
SNAKE PLAIN WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IS ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR NW THIS MORNING. AS OF 3AM MST THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WAS CROSSING THE OR/ID BORDER HAVING LEFT A COATING OF
SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF BAKER COUNTY (ID'D VIA WEBCAMS). THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE FOCUS
OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W-CENTRAL ID AND BOISE MTNS AND LESSER
SO INTO THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY WITH A COATING POSSIBLE (LESS THAN 1/4") FOR
SITES WEST OF MOUNTAIN HOME, WHILE EAST OF MTN HOME THE CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IS LESS THAN 10%. IN THE MTNS, UP TO AN
INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTER THIS SYSTEM, THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DRIES UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY, THEN
UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY (MID 50S IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY). BREEZY SOUTH-EAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WARMUP WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-84
CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. INITIALLY, IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH
ADVANCES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT, IT WILL TAP INTO A
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (60-90%) ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS UP TO
5500-6500 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT, BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH
AS 7000-8000 FEET AS THE WARMEST AIR MOVES INLAND. MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FAVORED BY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIMIT HEAVY SNOW TO THE HIGHER PEAKS. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BEHIND
THE FRONT TO AROUND 2500-4500 FEET, BUT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND BRING AN END TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON VALLEY FLOORS
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS
ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A SLIGHT
MAJORITY FAVOR A FLAT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS PRECIPITATION, WHILE
THE REMAINDER DEPICT SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE AS TROUGHING
PERSISTS. THE NET RESULT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW IS A 20-50%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, AND BREEZY WINDS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST
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