914
FXUS65 KMSO 092050
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
250 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2022
DISCUSSION
HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 100S IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS OF EXTREME
NW MT (AREAS WEST OF HWY-93 AND NORTH OF HWY-200), AND IN THE
MISSOULA VALLEY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 102-108F. IN THESE
AREAS, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS IDAHO AND LEMHI COUNTIES
IN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, IF RIGHT UNDER THE CORE OF
THE CONVECTION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 IN WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO, BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.
THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTION IS COMING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MONSOON, AND HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SOUTH OF IDAHO.
THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR
SOME OF OUR FLOOD PRONE AREAS, INCLUDING BURN SCARS, ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM WEST TO EAST,
SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT ON HOW THEY
CHARACTERIZE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. SOME SHOW
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE
OTHERS ARE SHOWING A MORE NORMAL MID AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT KMSO, KBTM AND KSMN AFTER 10/1900Z
AND AFTER 10/2300Z AT KGPI.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NORTHERN CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION.
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