893  
FXUS65 KMSO 162030  
AFDMSO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
230 PM MDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY,  
CONTINUING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL,  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TO MORE  
UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL  
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHERN IDAHO  
COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS WILL  
INITIALLY START AROUND 7000 FEET, LOWERING TO CLOSE TO 5500 FEET  
MONDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS (LOST  
TRAIL, BANNOCK, GILMORE SUMMIT) HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING  
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CREATING SLICK CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY,  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE  
EXCEPTION IS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH  
THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHWEST MONTANA.  
 
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL  
TO BE WORKED OUT, IT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH COLDER WITH POTENTIAL FOR  
SHOWERS AND EVEN SNOWFALL RETURNING. THIS NEXT WEEK VERY WELL  
COULD BE OUR LAST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S, SO ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS!  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS  
AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOME VERY  
LOCALIZED FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR RIVERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,  
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF KGPI, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  
 

 
   
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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