582
FXUS65 KMSO 101837
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1237 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER FOR MOST THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED HEAT RISK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE
TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASED WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRING CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON (FRIDAY)
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. VALLEYS
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA CAN EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S, WHILE
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS LIKE HELLS CANYON AND THE LOWER SALMON RIVER
VALLEYS WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE HELLS CANYON AREA AND THE LOWER SALMON RIVER VALLEYS IN
LEMHI COUNTY, WHICH GO INTO EFFECT TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 93, MEANING INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO
HEAT MAY BE AFFECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA, WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. FOR THOSE RECREATING OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND, PLEASE PRIORITIZE SAFETY: STAY CONSISTENTLY HYDRATED,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, AND PRACTICE EXTREME CAUTION TO
PREVENT ANY SPARKS OR FIRE STARTS IN THESE DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH,
ELEVATING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HOT,
DRY, AND WINDY WEEKEND CONDITIONS. THE INITIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ERRATIC,
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. BY TUESDAY
EVENING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA,
WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA (INCLUDING KGPI) OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A
PATTERN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT /8
PM PDT/ SUNDAY FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...SOUTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION.
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