281
FXUS65 KMSO 100706
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
106 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE THE CHANGE BACK TO FALL-
LIKE WEATHER.
- CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED OVER THE DIVIDE.
- STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.
- CUTOFF LOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS INTERESTING. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EXITED ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSIT
INTO SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TODAY (THURSDAY). THIS IN
TURN WILL HELP PUSH A TRANSIENT RIDGE EAST, CAUSING LOWERING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND THE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS WILL PUSH JET STREAM
ENERGY SOUTH PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE 'PARENT' LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND PUSH A
COOL AIR MASS SOUTHWARD, WHILE A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF AND
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A BACKDOOR CANADIAN COLD FRONT.
WHAT TO EXPECT? BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY WHILE REMAINING
AT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST MT, ALSO AREA LAKES WILL DEVELOP CHOPPY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE JET ENERGY WILL PROVIDE EARLY EVENING LIFT AND PRODUCE LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A FEW NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MT, LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE A
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT AND WINDS SLOWLY SWING NORTHEASTERLY FROM
THE GLACIER REGION, EVENTUALLY SOUTH AND WEST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE SATURDAY AND MOVE ALONG A LINE
GENERALLY FROM THE CAMAS PRAIRIE ID THROUGH WESTERN MT. THIS IS
ALSO THE GENERAL LOCATION OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AND LOWEST SNOW
LEVELS. SNOW IN SEPTEMBER MEANS LOOK QUICKLY TO THE PEAKS,
BECAUSE WHAT LITTLE FALLS WILL MELT OFF IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT
SAID, THOSE WITH BACK COUNTRY PLANS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
SHOULD PREPARE FOR WET AND RAW CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90.
AVIATION
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY AFFECTING KMSO
AND KHRF. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EAST
BEAVERHEAD.
ID...NONE.
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