479
FXUS65 KMSO 180742
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
142 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS REMAIN TUESDAY MORNINGS.
- NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH UNSETTLED BUT MILD CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S THIS MORNING AND
WHILE THERE WILL BE MODERATION TUESDAY EXPECT ANOTHER COLD START.
FOR THE KIDS, A JACKET IN THE MORNING WILL BE CARRIED HOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ITS VULNERABLE VEGETATION THAT WILL NEED CARE THE
NEXT 2 MORNINGS.
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN TOMORROW WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS, PRODUCTION OF GRAUPEL, AND POTENTIALLY A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. IN THE SIMPLEST TERMS, THIS WEEK WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND AND BY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN PART OF RIDGE PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY, THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED, HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AVIATION
COLD MORNINGS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KBTM AND KGPI. OTHERWISE, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE BUT DRY, SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF KGPI BETWEEN 18/2100 AND 19/0000Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW
PROBABILITY, 20% OR LESS, HOWEVER A LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE
IN THE FLATHEAD VALLEY AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET
REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION
VALLEYS...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS.
ID...NONE.
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