930
FXUS65 KMSO 151114
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
414 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS DISSIPATING TODAY
- CONTINUED 10 TO 14 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.
- MONDAY'S SYSTEM HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH LOWER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
- OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND POPULATED AREAS REMAIN LOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS GRADUALLY LESSEN TODAY, GIVING WAY TO THE CONTINUED MILD
NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO.
MODEL SUPPORT FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, NORTHWARD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ON MONDAY IS LOW, WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOWING ONLY 30% OF
MEMBERS IN SUPPORT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7000
FEET THAT COULD BRING OCCASIONAL WET SNOW TO THE PASSES, BUT
IMPACTS LOOK LOW OVERALL AREAWIDE.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., A LEFTOVER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE FACT THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON
ITS TRACK, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LOWER SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET.
BEYOND THIS, THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THIS NEXT WEEK MAY
SIMPLY REPEAT ITSELF. IT APPEARS WE MAY FIND OURSELVES IN THE
"COL"(SADDLE POINT) OF THE JET STREAM(WHICH MAY CAUSE ANOTHER
SOUTHWEST U.S. CUTOFF LOW), LEADING TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
THE REMNANTS OF A MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING, BUT THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH MIDDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BY
TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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