035
FXUS65 KMSO 141828
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1228 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN POWELL, GRANITE, DEER
LODGE, AND SILVER BOW COUNTIES.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE HAS PRODUCED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH IN TURN HAS PRODUCED WHAT WE JOKINGLY CALL
A CLOUD STORM. LOOKING ON RADAR WE CAN CLEARLY SEE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. UNFORTUNATELY A VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE
IS ONLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MT
MAY RECEIVE A TRACE TO 0.05" WHILE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN UP TO 0.20"
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLEARING OF CLOUDS THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MT TODAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
OUTFLOW WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL, OR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS A 5% OR LESS CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.
WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING OF CLOUDS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE EXPECTED THREAT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH OF OUR REGION, THE FLOW FLATTENS TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
WITH DECREASED INSTABILITY. THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST MT. ADDITIONALLY, AS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INCREASES, EXPECT A BREEZY
AFTERNOON. LAKES IN NORTHWEST MT MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
AVIATION
TODAY WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER FACTORS FOR
AVIATORS TO CONSIDER WHEN FLYING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA LATER
THIS MORNING, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO KGPI STARTING AROUND
14/1800Z. EXPECT CONVECTIVE STORMS AFFECTING KBTM AND KSMN THIS
AFTERNOON. THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND
LIGHTNING. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 5% CHANCE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL (ONE INCH OR GREATER) OR GUSTS OF
ABOUT 55 KNOTS OR GREATER IN THE VICINITY OF KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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