946
FXUS65 KMSO 220959
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
359 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
DISCUSSION
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY, CAUSING WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION CAUSING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LEMHI
COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA, DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND EVEN INTO THE 100S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION
COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KNOCK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL, AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN 70S AND 80S. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT, SO LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX THE SURFACE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THEN
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA, MAINLY AFFECTING KSMN AND
KBTM. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND ERRATIC
WINDS. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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