034
FXUS65 KMSO 010839
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
239 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
RAIN FROM YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY'S
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED UP TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR IN
ISOLATED AREAS, WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION OF WHAT TO EXPECT
TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, WITH RATES NEAR 0.50 INCHES
PER HOUR. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED,
HOWEVER IF THEY DO IMPACT AREA BURN SCARS, KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. ONE INGREDIENT MISSING FROM YESTERDAY THAT WE'LL
HAVE TODAY, IS MODEST MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST MONTANA HAS THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SILVER BOW,
POWELL, GRANITE, AND DEER LODGE COUNTIES. THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH, SO ENSURE
OUTDOOR ITEMS ARE SECURED IN THE EVENT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
TRACKS OVER YOUR AREA.
LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THEY WILL BE HIT-AND-
MISS. BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID- TO UPPER 80S IN
WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS AND 90S IN IDAHO'S LOWER SALMON AND
CLEARWATER VALLEYS.
AVIATION
RAIN FROM YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE BRINGS A MINOR THREAT FOR FOG IN THE VICINITY AND
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE TERRAIN FOR ALL AVIATION SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH 01/1400Z. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KBTM
AND KSMN WILL SEE THE FIRST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 01/2000Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING AND MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY 02/0300Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY FOR A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, DAMAGING
WINDS, INCLUDING BUTTE AND SALMON. TIMING FOR THESE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 01/2200Z AND 02/0200Z. KMSO
AND KHRF WILL BE UNDER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL BETWEEN
01/2200Z AND 02/0200Z. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, MAINLY PRODUCING BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page