393
FXUS65 KMSO 100827
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
227 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WET CONDITIONS TODAY AND A WINTER STORM FOR THE FRONT RANGE
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- A QUICK REBOUND EXPECTED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY LATE
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND BY THIS
EVENING THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW REACH MANY
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL, NORTHWEST, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE ENHANCED
BY THE TERRAIN ALLOWING MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATES THERE. SNOW AMOUNTS
AT ROGERS, MACDONALD, AND HOMESTAKE PASSES MAY EXCEED 4-6 INCHES
BY MONDAY MORNING. TO COMPLICATE THINGS, IT HAS RECENTLY BEEN VERY
WARM AND THE GROUND IS STILL HOLDING SOME OF THAT HEAT. SO WHEN IT
DOES START SNOWING, MOST OF IT WILL MELT AT FIRST, AT LEAST ON
PAVED SURFACES. BUT AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN, OR WHERE THE SNOW
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, THE SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THAT. AT
FIRST PAVED SURFACES WILL BE WET, THEN SLUSHY, AND OVER SOME
PASSES IT WILL BE SNOW ON TOP OF A SLUSHY BASE. TAKEN ALONG WITH
THE WINDS, THESE CONDITIONS ARE PERFECT FOR HYPOTHERMIA, SO IF
YOU'RE IN THE BACK-COUNTRY, BE PREPARED WET, SNOWY, COLD, AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR EAST
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF FLATHEAD LAKE. THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OCCUR BEFORE, BUT MODELS USUALLY UNDER
FORECAST THE WINDS OR MISS IT COMPLETELY, SO ITS VERY INTERESTING
TO SEE THIS. BETWEEN THAT EFFECT AND THE GAP WINDS THROUGH BAD
ROCK CANYON, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF FLATHEAD AND LAKE COUNTIES IN
MONTANA.
SUNDAY OR MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY, BUT HARD FREEZES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
IN THE LONG TERM, MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBOUNDING QUICKLY NEXT
WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S IN WESTERN MONTANA AND IN THE 70S AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
A WINTER STORM IS COMING TO THE REGION TODAY. SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT TERMINAL KBTM THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL START TO ACCUMULATE BY THIS EVENING, AND THAT AREA IS COVERED
BY A WINTER STORM WARNING STARTING THIS EVENING AT 11/00Z AND
LASTING THROUGH 12/12Z. OTHER AREA TERMINALS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
PICK UP LIGHT RAIN OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW. RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THE GROUND WARM WHICH WILL PREVENT SNOW
ACCUMULATION UNDER LIGHT SNOW CONDITIONS, EXCEPT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HEAVIER SNOW RATES LIKE ARE EXPECTED AT KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
MONDAY FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...POTOMAC/SEELEY
LAKE REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...NONE.
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