017
FXUS65 KMSO 051942
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
142 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARMING TREND STARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL CULMINATE IN
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY WEATHER.
- BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HOT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT INCREASES WIND AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE. SHOWERS SHOULD END QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE,
THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP
NORTHWEST MONTANA, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN MONDAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A DISTURBANCE FLATTENING THE RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS BY THURSDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AND CANADIAN BORDER.
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUMPS BACK UP. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 06/01Z WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH
ABOUT 05/24Z IMPACTING TERMINALS SUCH AS BTM, HRF, AND TO A
LESSER-EXTENT SMN. HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MAY PRODUCE
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE UP TO 30 KNOTS. INCREASED DRYING AND CLEARING
IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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