563
FXUS65 KMSO 191838
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1238 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY IN NARROW VALLEYS.
- SIGNIFICANT CHANGE COMING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK, BUT BROAD RIDGE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH LESS SOLAR
HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CAUSING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE THIS IS CAUSING OVERALL MILD WEATHER AND SUNNY
AFTERNOONS, IT'S ALSO ALLOWING VALLEY COLD POOLS TO DEVELOP WITH
INTERMITTENT FOG IN THE MORNINGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN IDAHO AND
20-30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND AFFECT
SOUTHWEST MONTANA, BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AND WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5,000 FT FRIDAY
AND LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL COME AHEAD
OF THAT AND FALL AS RAIN. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH, AND MOSTLY ABOVE 5,000 FT. THE
EXCEPTION OF COURSE IS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FLATHEAD NATIONAL
FOREST AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, WHICH WILL LIKELY PICK UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND. RECENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
VERY WARM AND MILD, SO WHILE THIS CHANGE REPRESENTS A BIG CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER, IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILD.
SOME VALLEY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE MORNINGS IS THE ONLY
EXPECTED IMPACT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TERMINAL KMSO IS THE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY NEARBY FOG WITH KGPI COMING IN A
CLOSE SECOND.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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