937
FXUS65 KMSO 022001
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
101 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY, WITH MANY VALLEYS
REACHING THE MID 50S WITH A FEW SPOTS OVER 60.
- A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SKY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR SOUTH OF I-90 THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
LEMHI COUNTIES EXITS THE REGION. A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, MAKING TUESDAY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. UNDER AMPLE MORNING SUNSHINE, VALLEY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%+) FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY NEAR 5,000 FEET. THESE LEVELS WILL DROP TOWARD
VALLEY FLOORS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT FILTERS COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION. MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION. A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD IMPACT
THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS, WHILE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL WOULD CONFINE IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, SHIFTING THE PRIMARY ENERGY TOWARD THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS PROGRESSION SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS, LIKELY REQUIRING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
PASSES AND HIGH TERRAIN RATHER THAN VALLEYS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION, WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW,
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE DAILY, PEAKING ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH RANGE FROM 45 TO 80
PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A 30% CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER ARCTIC SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK (MARCH 9-11).
IF THIS TREND VERIFIES, A TRANSITION TO WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SOUTH OF I-90 WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCE
EXITS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT, TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY WARM
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM THE WEST AFTER 2100Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC SYSTEM, THOUGH VFR THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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