022
FXUS65 KMSO 101838
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1238 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOCALIZED FROST THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.
- BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY-SATURDAY, FOCUSED ON
WESTERN MONTANA (GLACIER REGION) WHILE IDAHO STAYS DRY.
- WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25
MPH, AND 15 TO 35 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL ID, LEMHI COUNTY
ID, AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD CLEARING, AREAS OF FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY HIGHER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ID
AND SOUTHWEST MT ALONG WITH LEMHI COUNTY ID WHERE A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY, SHOWER CHANCES RETURN, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA,
WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE
GLACIER REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT, WITH NBM AVERAGES
GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS, THOUGH UP TO 0.50
INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GLACIER. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25
MPH EACH DAY.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS STRONGLY FAVOR AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS AND THE LOWER 90S IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AVIATION
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC SHOWERS
TODAY. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, BRIEF MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE
(<20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SHOWERS
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
KSMN, WITH LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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