095  
FXUS65 KMSO 142009  
AFDMSO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
209 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE EVENING  
WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THOSE IN THE  
BACK COUNTRY. NORTHWEST MONTANA FROM TROY AND LIBBY TO GLACIER  
PARK HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH A MOISTURE  
PLUME MOVING THROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. SO FAR TODAY MOST OF THIS  
HAS DRIED OUT BEFORE REACHING MONTANA, BUT TONIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW  
IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  
 
THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION  
FROM ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK. AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL PUSH UP A  
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD PATTERN  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO  
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS SO INSTEAD IT WILL CAUSE IT TO GET BREEZY IN  
THE AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDIEST WITH  
WESTERLY WINDS FROM LOLO PASS TO MISSOULA AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY  
200 CORRIDOR EAST AND AREAS SOUTH, AND WE RAISED WINDS IN THE  
FORECAST TO HAVE WIND SPEEDS IN THE TEENS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AT  
LOW ELEVATIONS AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
MONDAY THE MOISTURE FINALLY ARRIVES AND THE TROUGH WITH AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CAUSING  
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A TRANSITION  
TO AN OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN THAT STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF  
THE EXTENDED. IT WILL CAUSE COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT  
ALL AREA TERMINALS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH  
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN  
OBSCURATIONS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS  
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN  
MONTANA AND PUSH THE REMAIN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW  
MORNING INTO CANADA.  
 

 
   
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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