541
FXUS65 KMSO 161936
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
136 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH WILL IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY, CREATING CROSS WINDS AND
CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH NEAR ANACONDA AND A 70 PERCENT CHANCE AROUND
PINESDALE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE RISK OF ISOLATED
TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
- A BRIEF COOLING TREND BRINGS TEMPORARY RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DRIVES TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGING
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY IS THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. A STRONG JET STREAM IS
MOVING DIRECTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA, WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO CRANK UP ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES. LOOKING AT THE
REAL-TIME CONDITIONS, COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THESE INTENSE WINDS
MIXING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT OPEN OR WIND-PRONE AREAS LIKE ANACONDA (85 PERCENT
CHANCE) AND PINESDALE (70 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
GUSTS OF 50 MPH GREATER.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUDDEN, STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN A COOLER AIR
MASS. THIS WILL KNOCK WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES, GIVING US A SHORT BUT WELCOME BREAK FROM THE RECENT
HEAT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, WEATHER FORECAST MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (OVER 85 PERCENT CERTAINTY) THAT A STRONG
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO THE
MID-90S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS HOT AND DRY
STRETCH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A
SURGE OF DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN FROM HIGH WINDS TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT
WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH 17/0200Z THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM
16/2200Z-17/0100Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, AFTER 17/2100Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY THEY COULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO IMPACT KGPI. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION
VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK
REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE
REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE
MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LEMHI
COUNTY...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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