999
FXUS65 KMSO 250902
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
202 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW BANDS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING IN LEMHI COUNTY WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SNOW SQUALL.
- GUSTY, WEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND LAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HAS BEEN PUSHING A
HEALTHY PLUME OF MOISTURE ONSHORE SINCE ABOUT MONDAY. THE PLUME
IS STILL PRESENT, BUT IT IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARDS AS THE PACIFIC LOW
DOES THE SAME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL 140 KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL BRING ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS, PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AS WELL AS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 40-50 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BANDED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING SOUTH OF ABOUT I-90. CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SOME STRONGER BANDS OVER LEMHI COUNTY
AFTER SUNRISE. IMPACTS FROM BANDED SNOW SHOWERS ARE RAPID DROPS IN
TEMPERATURE CAUSING FLASH-FREEZING OF ROADWAYS AND SUDDEN
DECREASES IN VISIBILITY.
PRECIPITATION WANES LATER TODAY AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST MONTANA OVERNIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS GOING ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ARCTIC
AIR BUILDING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BREACH THE DIVIDE, AND, IF IT
DOES, HOW FAR WEST WILL IT PENETRATE.
AVIATION
INTERMITTENT CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO PASSING SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND ALONG
INTERSTATE 90. THE WINDOW FOR PEAK SHOWER INTENSITY IS THROUGH
ABOUT 25/18Z, WITH TERMINALS KHRF, KBTM, AND KSMN MOST LIKELY TO
SEE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. HIGH WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER
MOUNTAIN CRESTS. PRECIPITATION WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN THIS MORNING
ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AS WELL LEMHI COUNTY
AND THE CLEARWATER RANGE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...NONE.
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