573
FXUS65 KMSO 131916
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
116 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD MORNINGS WITH VALLEY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A WARMING TREND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH FRIDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- COLD FRONT COMING THIS WEEKEND BRINGS GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHWEST
MT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A BLOCKING
PATTERN AND WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT CONTINUED COOL TO COLD MORNINGS WITH PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM TO THE LOW 70S BY FRIDAY IN WESTERN MT, OR WHAT IS
THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR THE 3RD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ENJOY A SMALL
RETURN TO LATE SUMMER.
SATURDAY A MOSTLY DRY, COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
'BLOCKING PATTERN'. EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-90. WINDS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH,
WHILE VALLEYS EXPERIENCE GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN
THE 30S, PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ANY FALL BURNING.
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO START NEXT WEEK,
WITH GREATLY VARYING MODEL OUTCOMES. THERE REMAINS MANY QUESTIONS
ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS, HOW COLD THE ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS WILL BE, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. MORE TO COME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE.
CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
14/1500Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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