522
FXUS65 KMSO 111822
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1222 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
WILL CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL CAUSE A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S MID 80S IN WESTERN MONTANA AND MID 90S IN CENTRAL IDAHO NEXT
WEEK.
A TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA TOMORROW
WILL CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. CURRENT FORECASTS
ARE FOR MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH,
SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL, WE EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OF AVERAGE INTENSITY FOR WESTERN MONTANA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE CONFINED ALONG I-90 AND NORTHWARD, SO
IDAHO WILL BE MISSING OUT ON THESE STORMS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN WILL MOVE INLAND AND
SET UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS TYPICALLY A SHOWERY PATTERN, BUT WITHOUT
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN JUST
WEST OF OUR REGION, IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY WARM UP
WITH SOME 90S EXPECTED IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO LIKE
OROFINO AND RIGGINS BY TUESDAY. WESTERN MONTANA WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 80S.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST, THIS IS A GOOD PATTERN FOR
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND CAUSE
SHOWERS AND A COOL DOWN. CURRENT FORECASTS DON'T SHOW THIS
HAPPENING YET, BUT IT'S THE KIND OF SUBTLE PATTERN THAT THE MODELS
FREQUENTLY MISS AT LONG LEAD TIMES. IN ANY CASE, IT WOULD BE A LOW
IMPACT SCENARIO IF IT DOES HAPPEN. ALSO, THERE IS VERY POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS TO WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN,
THOUGH MANY MEMBERS START TO SHOW SOME SORT OF COOL DOWN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TODAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THAT TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING, IT WILL
SHUT OFF CONVECTION PRETTY QUICKLY AS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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