306
FXUS65 KMSO 071422
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
821 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- BEAUTIFUL, MILD, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A SHARP TRANSITION TO A COLDER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THIS WEEKEND.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER OUR REGION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE.
FRIDAY SOUTHERLY BREEZES INCREASE AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN VALLEYS ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMMON.
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH MAY SWING
NORTHEASTERLY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST. SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL 10 DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY OF MID TO UPPER 70S BECOMING MID TO UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY.
THE LOWEST VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ID MAY REMAIN NEAR 60 BUT THAT
WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE DROP COMPARED TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS STILL THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK. FOR INSTANCE,
FROM THE US-93 CORRIDOR AND WEST THE 48 HOUR TOTAL IS 0.00 INCHES
UP TO 0.50 INCH. THIS MEANS 25% OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE, WHILE THE 25% WETTER
MODELS SUGGEST UP TO 0.50 INCH OVER MOST OF WESTERN MT.
THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN
SOUTHWEST MT THERE COULD BE 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
BY MONDAY MORNING. COUPLE THAT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW
4000 FEET AND AREA MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD RECEIVE MULTIPLE WET,
SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW. ADD EXTRA TIME TO YOUR TRAVELS IF CROSSING
THE DIVIDE ON SUNDAY. ALSO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THAT TAKE
YOU ABOVE 4000 FEET THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND GLACIER
NATIONAL PARK, PREPARE FOR WET AND RAW CONDITIONS TO AVOID
HYPOTHERMIA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL NORTHERN
ROCKIES TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST, WITH LOCALIZED MORNING
MIST/FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY KGPI.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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