091
FXUS65 KMSO 031936
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
136 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON
FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS, WITH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO RECEIVING THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMES IN
THE AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE EXCEPTION TO THE IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
THE EASTERN HALF OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111 (MADISON COUNTY, MT)
WHICH WILL STILL EXPERIENCE WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CREATING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. KMSO AND KHRF HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING IMPACTS FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE
VISIBILITY TO DROP DOWN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...NONE.
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