530
FXUS65 KMSO 040754
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
154 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY CONTINUES TODAY; COOL/COLD VALLEY LOWS WITH PATCHY
FROST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
- INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY-TUESDAY
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CHANGE COMING END OF WEEK, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THAT CHANGE IMPACTS THE REGION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY BLIP
WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY.
CHANGE IS COMING! MODELS RUN TO RUN SHOW THAT CHANGE APPROXIMATELY
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS CHANGE
WILL EVOLVE. CURRENTLY, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE ARE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 10 DEGREE DROP BY SUNDAY. MORE TO COME AS THIS SYSTEM
COMES INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
VFR AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS ON SUNDAY, THEN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ON
MONDAY. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 1 DEGREE AT KALISPELL
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE FORMATION OF
FOG. AS IS TYPICAL, VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE WILDLY
FROM VFR TO IFR AS FOG SLOSHES AROUND THE VALLEY BASIN THROUGH
04/1400Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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