957
FXUS65 KMSO 252010
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
110 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY
- POCKETS OF LIGHT VALLEY FREEZING RAIN/PASS LEVEL SNOW
POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEK
COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND
OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA, MAKING VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS A PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING EXTENSIVE MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES; THIS CLOUD DECK MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST BEFORE
LEANING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, THE
RIDGE APPEARS INCREASINGLY "DIRTY" FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND REMNANTS OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING ROUNDS OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
WITH COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE AND SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ALOFT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX IN THE VALLEYS, WHILE LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND TOTALS REMAINS
LOW, THIS PERIOD WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED TRAVEL
IMPACTS DUE TO BLACK ICE DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
PRIMARY EXCEPTION REMAINS NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL MAINTAIN
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS, FOG, AND OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THESE BASINS,
THOUGH SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE REGION-WIDE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THIS MAY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLURRIES, NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS.
OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF THE ENTRENCHED
VALLEY STRATUS IN THE NORTH.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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