427
FXUS65 KMSO 031856
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1256 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THURSDAY
DAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERN MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE CAUSING LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN,
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BEING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO UP INTO THE MISSION MOUNTAIN RANGE AND BOB
MARSHALL WILDERNESS. THE MISSION MOUNTAINS COULD EXPERIENCE A HALF
TO AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THEN A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. THE BEST PROBABILITY
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS LEMHI
COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSH
INTO THE REGION WILL STRETCH AND SPLIT ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. A BROAD TROUGH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK. AROUND 62% OF THE
LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INTO
WESTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING, GENERALLY AFTER 6 PM MDT THEN
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS MODEST AND COULD BE WEAKENED
BY CLOUD-COVER, BUT ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE LIGHTING,
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KNOTS, AND HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS WANE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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