200
FXUS65 KMSO 232028
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
128 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT & MONDAY AM: RAPIDLY
CHANGING VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON PASSES.
LOCALIZED ICY SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- TRANSIENT ARCTIC PUSH: ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRODUCING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, COOLING
TEMPERATURES, AND WIND SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY.
- UNSETTLED HOLIDAY TRAVEL (WEDNESDAY & THANKSGIVING): LIGHT SNOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS RISE AND PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY FOR VALLEYS.
- POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSION LATE WEEK (NOV 28-29): PLEASE
MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY IF YOU HAVE POST-THANKSGIVING
TRAVEL PLANS.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CLEARWATER COUNTY
AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMERA IMAGES
AND OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE HOVERING
AROUND 5000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE A BURST
OF PRECIPITATION, FALLING SNOW LEVELS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AFTER ITS PASSAGE. THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE MONTANA/IDAHO
BORDER, ESPECIALLY LOLO AND LOST TRAIL PASSES, ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY NOON MST ON MONDAY
POTENTIALLY CREATING MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS ON THE ROADS. EVEN
THOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH THE VALLEYS EXPERIENCING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
AND GREATER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS THE DISTURBANCES EXITS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL
CAUSE A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK REGION
CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ESSEX TO MARIAS PASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 7 TO 11
INCHES OF NEW SNOW AND THE OTHER VALLEYS RECEIVING 2 TO 5 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY BETWEEN FEATURES WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. THEN ON WEDNESDAY A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OFF AS ALL SNOW THEN SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE STEADILY CLIMBING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING THIS PERIOD.
ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM
THE WEST CAUSING AN ENHANCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON AS THE VALLEYS EAST OF HWY 93 HAVE A 60 TO 80% CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCE SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUMS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
CLEARWATER COUNTY AND NORTHWEST MONTANA CAUSING VERY LIGHT RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS AS SNOW LEVELS HOVER AROUND 5000 FEET. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CAUSE LOWERED CEILINGS AND SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE AN ENHANCE IN THE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KGPI AROUND
24/06Z, KMSO 24/09Z AND KHFR AROUND 24/10Z. THE FRONT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES KBTM AND KSMN. THE REGION SHOULD
ANTICIPATE LINGER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS ON
MONDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
MONDAY FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR WEST GLACIER REGION.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PST
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page