208
FXUS65 KMSO 050728
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
128 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM START TO THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MILD CONDITIONS MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE COMING NEXT WEEKEND.
- SNOW POTENTIAL COMING LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT TIMES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TODAY
AND TUESDAY A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN
WESTERLY WINDS.
THE RIDGE REBUILDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH STABILITY RETURNING TO THE
VALLEYS AND WINDS BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN.
FRIDAY A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING CHANGE TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE 2 FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM THAT STAND OUT,
FIRST A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN OF AT LEAST 20 DEGREES AND POTENTIALLY
MORE ALONG WITH VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL COME
FROM CONTINENTAL CANADA AND BE RELATIVELY DRY. THAT SAID, A FEW
MODEL OUTCOMES DEPICT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE
TROUGH, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THEN A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS UP WRAPPING THAT
MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE BACK INTO OUR AREA. MORE TO COME
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT AFTER A COOLDOWN
OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS PRODUCING
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING TODAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED BREEZES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
20KTS TODAY AND WEAKER TUESDAY. EACH MORNING SUFFICIENT STABILITY
WILL EXIST TO PRODUCE PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT KGPI AND KMSO. DRIER
AIR MAY SETTLE INTO KMSO BY TUESDAY MORNING SQUASHING FOG CHANCES.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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