291
FXUS65 KMSO 060825
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
225 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR NORTHWEST MONTANA
- WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY CAUSING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR GLACIER NP
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES A REGION OF DRY
AIR OVER THE WEST COAST INDICATIVE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THIS RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START TO
CREEP UP ABOVE NORMAL, WHERE THEY WILL STAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
RIDGE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHWEST
MONTANA IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF ABOUT
30-40 MPH.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
BROADENS AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INCLUDING GLACIER PARK THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SEES DECREASING
CLOUDS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. ABOUT 70% OF
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ONBOARD WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. RAIN OR NO RAIN, SATURDAY WILL BRING A
COOL-DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY CHARACTER TODAY,
THOUGH STAY ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS OF ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KMSO, KBTM, AND KSMN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. KGPI WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
BY ABOUT 07/0300Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT 10-15%.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL,
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF ABOUT 25-35 KNOTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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