753
FXUS65 KMSO 270757
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
157 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT, DRY, AND SMOKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA
INCLUDING BUTTE.
- EVEN HOTTER, DRIER, AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.
- COOL DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH IT
REMAINS DRY.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK,
THAT RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP AND STATIONARY
PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO BRITISH COLOMBIA.
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WAVES OF ENERGY COULD BREAK OFF THE
TROUGH AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE. CURRENT MODELING HAS
RIDGE BREAKDOWN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SO WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK? A CONTINUATION OF HOT, DRY, AND
SMOKEY CONDITIONS. AS VALLEYS STABILIZE FROM INCREASING SMOKE,
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL WEAKEN BUT COUNTER INTUITIVELY
TEMPERATURES TRENDS COULD COOL A DEGREE OR 3 DUE TO BLOCKING OF
AFTERNOON SOLAR ENERGY, IE AFTERNOON HEATING.
IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WORSENING AIR QUALITY DUE
TO SMOKE. LIMIT YOUR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY AND PLEASE CHECK ON THOSE IN
THE COMMUNITY THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO POOR AIR QUALITY.
THE MODELS COULD CONTINUE TO DELAY OR POTENTIALLY SPEED UP THE
EVOLUTION OF RIDGE BREAKDOWN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FUTURE
FORECASTS AS THE CRITICAL PERIOD DURING RIDGE BREAKDOWN WILL
HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE SINGLE COMPONENT THAT THE MODELS HIGHLY AGREE
UPON IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS DOMINATING THE REGION WITH
BOTH GOOD AND BAD IMPACTS. THE GOOD IMPACTS ARE NO THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED FOR A FEW DAYS. THE BAD IMPACT
IS THAT IT KEEPS PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE MANY WILDLAND FIRES IN
OREGON INTO OUR REGION. SO FAR, TERMINALS KMSO, KGPI, AND KHRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST IMPACTED, AND WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBILITY AT AREA TERMINALS WILL ONLY
TEMPORARILY AND VERY RARELY DROP BELOW 6 MILES WITH SMOKE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...
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