825
FXUS65 KMSO 230713
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
113 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY, POTENTIALLY WORSENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
WILDFIRE SMOKE: SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL MAINTAIN HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
LIKELY LONGER.
TODAY'S THUNDERSTORMS & STRONG OUTFLOWS: RESIDUAL MOISTURE,
DAYTIME HEATING, AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GIVEN DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES, LOCALIZED
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
HIGH- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FEATURING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PROPAGATING FROM NORTHEAST OREGON
INTO NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO BY MID- AFTERNOON, REACHING WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY FIRE WEATHER THREAT: HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DRIVE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OCCASIONAL, SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AVIATION...WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO AREA TERMINALS TODAY, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SMOKE DENSITY PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL MAKE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35-45 KTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FEATURING THESE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS PROPAGATING FROM NORTHEAST OREGON INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO BY MID-AFTERNOON, REACHING WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA BY
EARLY EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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