461
FXUS65 KMSO 240938
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
338 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
BRINGING STABLE CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPTREND, TOPPING OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD FOR TUESDAY,
INTRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY UP TOWARD
THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BY WEDNESDAY, DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE REGION INCREASING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MIX OF RAIN-PRODUCING
STORMS WILL INTERMINGLE WITH MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATING
THE RISK FOR MORE LIGHTNING-CAUSED FIRE STARTS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH RETURNING INTO THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THIS
COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THERE AREN'T MANY
DETAILS ON EXACT IMPACTS OR TIMING, BUT WE CAN EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES, AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER A COUPLE DAYS WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER WINDOW OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE IS REBUILDING OVER THE REGION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY, LIGHT AND
DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL
NOTICEABLY INCREASE DENSITY ALTITUDES ONCE AGAIN. REGIONAL AND
LOCAL WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DEGRADED SLANT -RANGE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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