028
FXUS65 KMSO 041925
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
125 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
- SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND, FOCUSING ALONG THE DIVIDE, LEMHI COUNTY, AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.
- MONITORING TREND FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN NORTHWEST MT. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY PRECIPITATING 0.10 TO
0.25 INCH. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORCING MOVES EAST.
FRIDAY, TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN SOUTHWEST
MT. AS FAST AS ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS INCREASE, THE NEXT TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT WEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH, SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 35 MPH, WITH A
40 TO 60 % CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
MINIMUM RHS IN THE 20S WITH WINDS 15 TO 35 MPH, LEADS TO THE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, USE CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
SATURDAY THE TROUGH PUSHES INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A BREEZY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DRIER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST MT MAY ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM PRODUCING OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST MT. ADDITIONALLY, COOLER
TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000
FEET SUNDAY MORNING. SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY REQUIRE PROTECTION
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS DUE TO FROST AS TEMPERATURES MAY
LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE ANOTHER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MID NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS MANY
QUESTIONS ON THE DEPTH, STRENGTH, AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
CURRENTLY, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITIES OF 50 TO 80% OF RECEIVING A 0.50" OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
WEST- NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS REACHING 15-20KTS. THROUGH 4/2400Z, A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MT IN THE
VICINITY OF KGPI. EXPECT BRIEF BUT RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
IN STRONGER SHOWERS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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