065
FXUS65 KMSO 030835
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
235 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ID AND
SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTERNOON
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY MIDWEEK
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
ANOTHER BROAD LOW OVER ONTARIO. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, STUCK IN
THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO FEATURES, WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT UNTIL ABOUT MIDWEEK WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WEAK SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH TO
WESTERN MONTANA. THIS ENHANCED NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE,
THE OVERALL TREND FAVORS A WARMUP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS, LOW 80S IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. IF THE RIDGE
CENTERS FURTHER WEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WOULD REMAIN IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, KEEPING DAILY SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST;
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO ABOUT
30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR KMSO AND KHRF, EXPECT
LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN WINDS TRANSITIONING TO MORE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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