804
FXUS65 KMSO 040806
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
206 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING A DRY WARMING TREND
WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 70S AND 80S.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE SITTING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SITES TO THE EAST. THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA
THROUGHOUT MONDAY, WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH
AT TIMES. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET BECOMES ORIENTED ALMOST STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL INTO THE VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S,
WITH THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO REACHING THE LOW
80S.
AVIATION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS TO KGPI EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 04/1200Z THIS MORNING, THEN PICKING UP AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 04/2200Z. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL
ALSO SEE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS (NORTHERLY AT KHRF) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. AVIATORS FLYING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA TODAY WILL EXPERIENCE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN OBSCURED TERRAIN ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH WIND DIRECTION BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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