025
FXUS65 KMSO 041840
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1240 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. NORTHWEST MONTANA GETS A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE SMOKE TODAY.
- WARMING, DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE WEEK POSE A FIRE WEATHER
RISK STARTING FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WELL-ESTABLISHED
WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LION'S
SHARE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE IS ORIGINATING IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
THOUGH LOCAL FIRES ARE CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING POOR AIR
QUALITY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSPORT SOME
SMOKE OUT OF NORTHWEST MONTANA TODAY, ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER, SMOKE DISPERSION MODELS INDICATE
SMOKE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SPEAKING OF FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, RESULTING IN INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THESE HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
DECREASED VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL
BE THE ONGOING IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK (AT LEAST). WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM FIRES BURNING IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL GIVE NORTHWEST MONTANA A BREAK FROM THE SMOKE.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN BELOW MVFR, AND AVIATORS
SHOULD EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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