087
FXUS65 KMSO 192048
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
248 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2019
DISCUSSION
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO SIT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS EVENING, THOUGH EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, AND LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA, AND COULD CAUSE INCREASED CHOP ON FLATHEAD LAKE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12)
AND LEMHI COUNTY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHCENTRAL IDAHO WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND LEMHI COUNTY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WHILE WESTERN MONTANA WILL GENERALLY BE DRIER DUE TO THE DRYING
EASTERLY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN, PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS FROM GRANGEVILLE AND
SOUTHWARD. SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN
THIS AREA, BUT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY WESTERN
MONTANA, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER ENOUGH THAT HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES
(GEORGETOWN LAKE, MACDONALD PASS, HOMESTAKE PASS, AND POSSIBLY
BUTTE) COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE PAST WEDNESDAY, BUT
FORECAST MODELS DO INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING WILL OCCUR INTO
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL
KEEP BLUSTERY WINDS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO, HOWEVER KSMN
AND KBTM SHOULDN'T BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THE
MOST, LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR FOR THESE TWO TERMINALS, WHILE THE
REST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAINS CLOUDY BUT DRY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FLATHEAD/MISSION
VALLEYS.
ID...NONE.
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