414
FXUS65 KMSO 032000
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
100 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIPPERY TRAVEL: PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND BLACK ICE MAY CAUSE
SLICK TRAVEL TONIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE NEAR GRANGEVILLE, IDAHO, TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN: A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING FREQUENT
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A DIP IN THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. WHILE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOWFALL, VALLEY RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A MESSY MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO PUSH OUT THE COOLER AIR CURRENTLY
TRAPPED IN MANY OF OUR VALLEYS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED
IN MANY WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS, AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN ALOFT,
IT WILL FALL INTO THIS NEAR-FREEZING AIR. WARMING HAS BEEN
SLUGGISH IN THE NORTHERN BITTERROOT, MISSOULA, MISSION, AND
FLATHEAD VALLEYS, WHERE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED
IN THE LOW TO MID-30S.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT, THESE VALLEYS WILL BE RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK AS
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SETUP IS A PRIME CANDIDATE
FOR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING, BE AWARE THAT
ROADS MAY LOOK WET BUT COULD ACTUALLY BE ICY; "BLACK ICE" IS A
THREAT ON BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, AND SIDE STREETS.
IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO GUSTY WINDS. A
LOCALIZED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
ALONG HIGHWAY 95 FROM RIGGINS TO GRANGEVILLE, AND 50-60 MPH ACROSS
THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND NEAR GRANGEVILLE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 5:00 AM AND 10:00 AM SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY & TUESDAY: EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE VALLEYS
AND STEADY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
WEDNESDAY: THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS A
STRONGER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
NEAR VALLEY FLOORS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO MOST VALLEY
FLOORS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA
BORDER, WHERE 5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LATE WEEK: WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY, MODELS ARE SPLIT (ABOUT 50/50) ON WHAT HAPPENS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONE SCENARIO KEEPS THE "DIP" IN THE JET
STREAM OVER US (MEANING MORE SNOW), WHILE THE OTHER BUILDS A
"RIDGE" (MEANING DRY BUT FOGGY AND STAGNANT AIR).
AVIATION
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN COMMON FROM
THE NORTHERN BITTERROOT VALLEY THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. KGPI AND KMSO REMAIN THE PRIMARY SITES
IMPACTED BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITY AND CEILING
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FOG IS LIKELY TO
RETURN THIS EVENING. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX
TO THE STABLE VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING, GENERALLY AFTER
04/0300Z, WHICH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST SUNDAY FOR
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION.
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