657
FXUS65 KMSO 261948
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
148 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MOSTLY JUST A NUISANCE.
- WARM AND DRY WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES RUNNING ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- ACTIVE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
BREEZY WEST WINDS (VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH) CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A NUISANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OTHERWISE, AS WE END THE WORK WEEK, A
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL GIVE US A VERY COMFORTABLE, WARM, AND
DRY WEEKEND. EXPECT COOL MORNINGS NEAR FREEZING AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS,
NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER RIVER VALLEYS OF IDAHO, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO BURN PILES THIS WEEKEND, BE AWARE THAT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BE VERY DRY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS START TO DROP QUITE A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE'S ABOUT A 70% CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, BUT MODELS ARE STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH. A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
WOULD BRING ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH IT: INCREASING WINDS,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT ONSET OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE, THIS
FEATURE SHOULD HELP OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH, CURRENTLY, ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE FOR A
BROAD AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-3). THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST AND WETTEST TIMEFRAME REGION WIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN SO WE ARE ADVISING THAT FOLKS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS EVOLVING SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS SHOULD BECOME TIGHTER.
AVIATION
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON
WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
AVIATION TERMINALS THROUGH 27/0300Z THIS EVENING. LINGERING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, OBSCURING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY LOWERING CEILINGS AT AREA
TERMINALS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA, INCLUDING AT
KGPI. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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