659
FXUS65 KMSO 071014
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
414 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ANTICIPATED. A FEW ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE REFS ENSEMBLE
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH INCLUDE ASHLEY LAKE TO KILA, BLACKTAIL
MOUNTAIN, MACDONALD PASS AND OVER THE DIVIDE. THERE IS A 60%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 50 MPH BETWEEN FLORENCE AND CORVALLIS,
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF US-93.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.
ON SATURDAY, WE'LL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS A GOOD PATTERN
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DO WE HAVE THE FUEL FOR STORMS? THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES DEPICT A 40% PROBABILITY FOR INSTABILITY (CAPE)
VALUES EXCEEDING 400 J/KG FROM CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MONTANA. THE U. OF WA GFS-BASED WRF IS DEPICTING MULTI-CELLULAR
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OFF THE TERRAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED.
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, IN THE LOW END, THERE
COULD BE A SKIFF OF SNOW THAT FALLS, BUT LOOKING AT THE HIGH END,
THERE COULD BE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. THERE
ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT SPIN UP A LOW OVER OUR REGION THAT
INTERACTS WITH COOLER AIR DRAWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
AVIATION
EXPECT A WINDY DAY TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OCCURRING BETWEEN 07/1700Z AND 08/0000Z, GENERALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY
STAYING UNDER 20 KNOTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT
REGION...FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET
REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT
VALLEYS...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
ID...NONE.
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