465
FXUS65 KMSO 271906
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
106 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXPECT A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- COOLER, SHOWERY AND BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.
- POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW LATE NEXT WEEK TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOW, POSSIBLY REACHING INTO HIGHER VALLEYS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S AND 60S FOR WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS,
WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. DESPITE THE STABLE PATTERN,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN 80 TO
90 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, LEMHI COUNTY, AND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TOWARD COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER. IMPACTFUL
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE, ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES,
INCLUDING MARIAS, LOOKOUT, AND LOLO, FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SLICK CONDITIONS
OVER THESE HIGHER-ELEVATION ROUTES.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A
MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE
SPECIFIC TRACK DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A SECONDARY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
REACH THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON THERMAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. POCKETS OF RIVER FOG ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL CAUSE MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS
FOR LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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