037
FXUS65 KMSO 230743
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
143 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY BRINGS WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS, TRANSITIONING
TO A MUCH COOLER, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY WEEKEND.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY
INTO THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON FRIDAY, A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, THEN MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SHARP DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, AN INCREASE IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS (ALSO DUE TO STRONG WINDS), AND FREEZING
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES.
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE LOW,
FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6,000 FEET
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW'S TRACK, INTRODUCING WINTER- LIKE
BACKCOUNTRY IMPACTS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY GLACIER
NATIONAL PARK. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW, BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND FROSTY MORNINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE TODAY. SOME EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FOR KHRF, KSMN, AND KBTM FROM MOISTURE THAT
ARRIVED ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR FOG AT
KGPI EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES CERTAINLY SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECREASED VISIBILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING. TIMING FOR
FOG AT KGPI HAS BEEN STARTING AT ABOUT 1200Z AND LASTING THROUGH
ABOUT 1300-1400Z, EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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