095
FXUS65 KMSO 142009
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
209 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE EVENING
WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THOSE IN THE
BACK COUNTRY. NORTHWEST MONTANA FROM TROY AND LIBBY TO GLACIER
PARK HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME MOVING THROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. SO FAR TODAY MOST OF THIS
HAS DRIED OUT BEFORE REACHING MONTANA, BUT TONIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION
FROM ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK. AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL PUSH UP A
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD PATTERN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS SO INSTEAD IT WILL CAUSE IT TO GET BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDIEST WITH
WESTERLY WINDS FROM LOLO PASS TO MISSOULA AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY
200 CORRIDOR EAST AND AREAS SOUTH, AND WE RAISED WINDS IN THE
FORECAST TO HAVE WIND SPEEDS IN THE TEENS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AT
LOW ELEVATIONS AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY THE MOISTURE FINALLY ARRIVES AND THE TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CAUSING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A TRANSITION
TO AN OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN THAT STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED. IT WILL CAUSE COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
ALL AREA TERMINALS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND PUSH THE REMAIN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING INTO CANADA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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