483
FXUS65 KMSO 031903
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
103 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF DEGRADED AIR QUALITY FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY FRIDAY, FROM HOT, DRY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDESPREAD SMOKE IMPACTING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ASSOCIATED WITH WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. THIS
SMOKE HAS REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAS PROMPTED TO THE ISSUANCE OF
VARIOUS AIR QUALITY ALERTS FROM THE IDAHO AND MONTANA DEQ OFFICES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT A COLD FRONT TRACKING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE DIVIDE, WITH EASTERLY
WINDS BEING FELT AS FAR WEST AS THE US-93 CORRIDOR FROM KALISPELL
THROUGH THE BITTERROOT VALLEY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY THIS WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A HOT, DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING FRIDAY FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE, WITH INCREASING WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40-60%) FOR GUSTS TO 30
MPH OR HIGHER ARE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND THEIR
CLUSTERS SUGGEST THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, WITH LITTLE TO ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS POINT TOWARDS AREAS OF
VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-6 MILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE, WITH
VALLEY AREAS SEEING THE WORST CONDITIONS AS INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THIS EVENING AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE DIVIDE, HELPING USHER IN CLEANER AIR FOR KGPI AND KBTM.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND ALONG THE ID/MT BORDER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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