882
FXUS65 KMSO 232058
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
158 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED: NEW ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS, POTOMAC/SEELEY
LAKE REGION, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT
REGION AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
- WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN & SLUSH: MOST VALLEYS WILL TRANSITION TO
RAIN OR A MESSY RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADS AND LOCALIZED SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLDER MIDWEEK TRANSITION: A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO ALL SNOW FOR THE VALLEYS ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND QUICK-HITTING SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
A POTENT MOISTURE PLUME IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION. WE
HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS, POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION, AND THE
NORTHERN BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
MOUNTAINS: HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES OVER LOOKOUT, MARIAS, LOLO, LOST TRAIL, AND
MACDONALD PASSES.
VALLEYS: TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN WARMED ENOUGH FOR MOST VALLEYS
TO SEE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SNOW-TO- RAIN TRANSITION IN THE
SEELEY LAKE/POTOMAC/BLACKFOOT AREAS LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND BUTTE AND
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.
THE REGION REMAINS IN A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 4,500 AND 5,500
FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE STEADY SNOW RESTRICTED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WHILE VALLEYS EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FOR MOST ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BANDS OR SQUALLS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE CAN CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS IN
VISIBILITY AND RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW BANDS WILL
FOCUS SOUTH OF I-90.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 30-40 MPH
WINDS GUSTS COMMON ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ON THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
NEXT WEEKEND: FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. WHILE NOT A MAJOR STORM, IT WILL LIKELY KEEP LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS AT
AREA TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.
INITIALLY MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINALS BUT AS VALLEYS MOISTEN UP, THEY WILL OVERCOME THE
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING TO BRING
LOWERED CEILINGS AND AFTER TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LOWERED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR WEST GLACIER
REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR LOWER CLARK
FORK REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
ID...NONE.
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