514
FXUS65 KMSO 241006
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
406 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S,
90S IN LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRAMATIC SHIFT TO COLDER AND WETTER THIS WEEKEND. HYPOTHERMIA
RISK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE "WINTER-LIKE" WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DOWN TO 6000-7000 FEET.
A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING, THEN A FEW STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DIVIDE.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A PULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 93 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING.
THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT A
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING ON HOW THE LOW WILL
ACTUALLY TRAVERSE THE REGION, BUT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THEN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST MONTANA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE A HALF TO AN INCH OF MOISTURE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTS OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK GETTING UP TO 3 INCHES OF
MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO AROUND
7000-8000 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ALLOWING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS CAUSING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. KHRF AND KBTM WILL HAVE THE
BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING (1600Z). THIS AFTERNOON A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH KBTM HAVE A LOW
POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED ONCE AGAIN.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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