914  
FXUS65 KMSO 092050  
AFDMSO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
250 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY WILL LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH  
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 100S IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS OF EXTREME  
NW MT (AREAS WEST OF HWY-93 AND NORTH OF HWY-200), AND IN THE  
MISSOULA VALLEY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO,  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 102-108F. IN THESE  
AREAS, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS IDAHO AND LEMHI COUNTIES  
IN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR  
TWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, IF RIGHT UNDER THE CORE OF  
THE CONVECTION.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE  
OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 IN WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-  
CENTRAL IDAHO, BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  
THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTION IS COMING FROM THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST MONSOON, AND HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY  
RAINFALL, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SOUTH OF IDAHO.  
THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR  
SOME OF OUR FLOOD PRONE AREAS, INCLUDING BURN SCARS, ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM WEST TO EAST,  
SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST TO  
WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING, GUSTY  
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE  
MAIN THREATS.  
 
LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT ON HOW THEY  
CHARACTERIZE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. SOME SHOW  
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE  
OTHERS ARE SHOWING A MORE NORMAL MID AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN. STAY  
TUNED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT KMSO, KBTM AND KSMN AFTER 10/1900Z  
AND AFTER 10/2300Z AT KGPI.  
 

 
   
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NORTHERN CLEARWATER  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING LOWER HELLS  
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION.  
 

 
 

 
 
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