810
FXUS65 KMSO 251818
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1218 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
- RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE MISSION
AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM KILA
TO HAPPY'S INN, WHERE LOCAL WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 MPH,
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2PM AND 8PM TONIGHT. WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE
CHOPPY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, INCLUDING OVER
FLATHEAD LAKE INTO THIS EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
SECONDARY TO THE WIND WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
WITH THE FRONT TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA, INCLUDING IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. THE
MOISTURE FEED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOSE
IN THE BACKCOUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHANGE TO COOL,
SHOWERY AND RAW CONDITIONS WITH A THREAT FOR HYPOTHERMIA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST MODELS SHOW A ZONAL (WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN) OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINLY
LEAD TO DRIER BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW, AROUND 30 PERCENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
MUCH COLDER AND DEEPER TROUGH, WITH THE REMAINING 70 PERCENT
EITHER SHOWING CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW OR A WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE.
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE, SURFACE WIND GUSTS, AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MISSION
AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS, WHERE WESTERLY GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 TO
45 KTS, MAINLY BETWEEN 25/2200Z AND 26/0300Z. SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KGPI AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS BY
THIS EVENING, WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 5,000 FT MSL
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS.
ID...NONE.
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