946  
FXUS65 KMSO 220959  
AFDMSO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
359 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER  
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY, CAUSING WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO  
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION CAUSING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LEMHI  
COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA, DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY LOWER  
ATMOSPHERE THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.  
ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS AND EVEN INTO THE 100S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH  
CENTRAL IDAHO. A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION  
COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST  
MONTANA.  
 
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC  
WINDS.  
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KNOCK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE  
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL, AS TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE IN 70S AND 80S. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH  
THIS FRONT, SO LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY  
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX THE SURFACE AFTER THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS  
OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH  
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THEN  
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH  
OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS  
LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA, MAINLY AFFECTING KSMN AND  
KBTM. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND ERRATIC  
WINDS. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH  
DURING THE EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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