484
FXUS65 KMSO 140715
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
115 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: PASS LEVEL SNOW, POTENTIAL MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS TO
VALLEY FLOORS BUT LIGHT VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE PASS
LEVEL TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE. SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- NEXT WEEKEND: WARMER AND DRIER.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING:
A BROAD, DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, PRODUCING LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS. EXPECT A
MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
MEANWHILE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE TERRAIN. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS REACHING
25 MPH.
THE NEXT PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO NORTHWEST
MONTANA. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER NEAR 4,500 FEET, KEEPING MOST SNOW
IMPACTS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE LOOKOUT, MARIAS,
AND LOLO PASSES WILL LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) RECEIVE A FEW INCHES
OF NEW SNOW, ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO PASS ELEVATIONS, QUICKLY TURNING TO WET
ROADS JUST BELOW PASS LEVELS.
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT & SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
THURSDAY:
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW- PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WHILE
CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP RAPIDLY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
TRAVELERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS SHOULD CREATE MODERATE
TRAVEL IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS FOR A PROLONGED EVENT APPEAR
TO STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA, WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY IMPACT
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
MINOR CHANCE (25%) FOR A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION THERE, SOMETHING WATCH.
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY;
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGH ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE WEEKEND & BEYOND:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
USHERING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED
(BY 80% OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS) TO ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT REMNANT SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ONGOING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON AT TERMINALS TODAY AS CEILINGS LIFT BUT
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
AT TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN MOST
VALLEYS FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD BY SUNSET, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED IN
NORTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS. AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES TONIGHT,
ELEVATED RIDGETOP WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT TERMINAL SITES.
SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION, RAIN/SNOW WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG
THE ID/MT BORDER BY EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS WILL OFTEN BE LACKING
BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM
4000-5000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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