486
FXUS65 KMSO 260858
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
258 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT STRONGER STORMS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST CUTTING OFF INTO A
CLOSED LOW EARLY THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY WITH STORMS INITIATING AROUND 1 PM AND MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE CONNECTING KALISPELL,
MISSOULA, AND SALMON, IDAHO. WEST OF THAT LINE WILL HAVE COOLER
AIR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION, AND EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL HAVE WARMER, MORE UNSTABLE AIR. THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARMER, MORE UNSTABLE AIR. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIND GUST POTENTIAL 40-50 MPH WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND VERY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 60 MPH
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MACHINE LEARNING FORECASTS FROM
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY GIVE UP TO A 15% CHANCE OF WINDS OVER 60
MPH OR HAIL 1 INCH OR LARGER IN WESTERN MONTANA FOR TODAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM, IT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH TO
REJOIN THE STORM TRACK. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER
VERY WET DAY FOR CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING A WARMING DRYING TREND STARTING NEXT WEEKEND AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SOME SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, BUT THEY'LL BLOSSOM INTO THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TODAY. STORMS TODAY WILL START AROUND 19Z AGAIN, BUT TODAY THEY
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. MORE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH STRONGER STORMS THAN YESTERDAY. THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS
FROM COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY GIVE UP TO A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH OR 1 INCH HAIL IN OUR REGION. MOST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FORECASTING WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH WITH STORM
OUT FLOWS, SO THIS MATCHES WITH THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELING
WELL.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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