372
FXUS65 KMSO 090834
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
234 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED HEAT RISK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASED WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO BEGINNING TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY, WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LEMHI COUNTY IN IDAHO. BY FRIDAY
EVENING, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL MAINLY FOCUS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY,
CARRYING THE THREAT OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HOT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VALLEYS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S, WHILE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS LIKE HELLS
CANYON AND THE LOWER SALMON RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A HIGH CONFIDENCE (70 PERCENT)
OF MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 93,
MEANING INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HEAT MAY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED.
THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS THAT COULD
AFFECT ANYONE LACKING ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAT, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COMBINING WITH LOW DAYTIME
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR
THOSE RECREATING OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE PRIORITIZE SAFETY:
STAY CONSISTENTLY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE,
AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, AND
PRACTICE EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT ANY SPARKS OR FIRE STARTS IN
THESE DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ELEVATE
THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD, RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO BY MIDWEEK, OFFERING A
STARK CONTRAST TO THE DRY AND WINDY WEEKEND CONDITIONS. INITIALLY,
THIS MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BECAUSE THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL STILL BE VERY
DRY, THE FIRST STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL AT THE GROUND BUT WILL BE HIGHLY CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL MAINTAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LEMHI COUNTY. ON FRIDAY, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY BY THE
EVENING HOURS WILL INTRODUCE A RENEWED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY (KBTM AND KSMN), WITH ANY DEVELOPING
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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