339
FXUS65 KMSO 031941
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1241 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MANY VALLEYS REACHING THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL REACH THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH AN 80% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE WEST (30-40 MPH) AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR
VALLEY FLOORS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
TODAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON BREEZES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID-50S AND LOW
60S FOR MOST MONTANA VALLEYS AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
A FAST-MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS LOOKOUT PASS ARE
EXPECTED TO START WITH RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT. COMPUTER
MODELS SHOW THE STORM SYSTEM LOSING ITS SHAPE AS IT MOVES SOUTH,
WHICH COULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER, THURSDAY MORNING MAY REMAIN RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
VALLEYS; IF IT IS FASTER, WE WILL SEE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THROUGH THE BUTTE AND BLACKFOOT REGIONS.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIT-OR-MISS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE,
PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
LIKELY PEAKING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE: WE ARE TRACKING A 30% PROBABILITY OF AN ARCTIC WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVING AS EARLY AS MARCH 9TH, OR AS LATE AS THE 12TH.
WHILE THE REST OF THE CLUSTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT SHOWING AN
ARCTIC SYSTEM, THEY DO SHOW A COLDER AND WETTER PATTERN AS OPPOSED
TO WHERE WE HAVE BEEN. THIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
A QUITE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM. EXPECT CLOUD CEILINGS TO LOWER AND
VISIBILITY TO DECREASE AT KGPI, KMSO, AND KHRF AFTER 04/1200Z.
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. KMSO, KGPI AND KHRF WILL SEE PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY
UNDER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 4/1700Z THROUGH 5/0000Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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