778
FXUS65 KMSO 211800
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1200 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO COOLING
TREND, GUSTY WINDS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- MILD TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 25-40
MPH ACROSS VALLEY AREAS WITH GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN AND
BACKCOUNTRY AREAS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE CAUSING MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT.
COMBINED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF PRECIPITATION,
THIS CREATES A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. AS A RESULT WE EXPANDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FROM
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ALSO INCLUDE SANDERS AND MINERAL COUNTIES.
CURRENTLY, ONLY THE FISCHER RIVER NEAR LIBBY IS FORECAST INTO
ACTION STAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS CONCERN FOR A CONTINUATION
OF ROCK FALLS AND SLIDES.
THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE ELEVATED, PLEASE
USE CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR BURNING.
TUESDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES, WITH INCREASING PREFRONTAL WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE 5000 TO 6000 FEET, SO ANY
WINTER TRAVEL HAZARDS WILL BE LIMITED TO A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO AT
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
AVIATION
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO UP INTO GLACIER NP AND WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS AT AREA TERMINALS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. FOG DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED TO THE EXTENT OF DRIER AIR THAT IS BEING MIXED TO
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION
VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION.
ID...NONE.
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