457
FXUS65 KMSO 071954
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
154 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. THESE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT, VALLEY TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, SO PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MONDAY WILL BE
A MOSTLY DRY TRANSITION DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE IS LIKELY
(70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE). BROAD WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS WILL SEE
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. IN ADDITION
TO THE RAIN, BREEZY WINDS AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE RAW, COLD CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BACKCOUNTRY
RECREATIONISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER-LIKE WEATHER, AS SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO ROUGHLY 6,500 TO 7,000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
FORECAST MODELS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY AS THE MAJORITY EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
DEPICTED. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AROUND 30 PERCENT OF
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLOWER MOVING TROUGH INTO
THURSDAY. IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT, PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A GENERAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
BUT THE PATTERN IS LEFT OPEN FOR DAILY SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING NORTHWEST MONTANA AND IN THE VICINITY OF KGPI. LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR PRECIPITATION
CORES ARE ANTICIPATED. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER
CLARK FORK REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS.
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
/8 AM PDT/ MONDAY FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...NORTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION...
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
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