938
FXUS65 KMSO 270845
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
245 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- WARMER LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMMINENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDERS THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE OVERALL STAGNANT PATTERN YIELDS LITTLE
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE, KEEPING DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING
INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH LESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVERALL. HOWEVER, A
LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST AND WILL EXPAND BACK
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY, REACHING THE
YELLOWSTONE REGION BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAINING DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL TEMPORARILY
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIVES TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION
WITH THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA CONTINUING TO
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW HAS MIGRATED FURTHER
SOUTH AND IS STARTING TO WEAKEN, WE EXPECT LESS OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, HOWEVER, WITH THE BIG RISE IN
TEMPERATURES, WE ME SEE SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALWAYS A THREAT, BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH THAT SMALL TO MODERATE
SIZE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE SOUTHERN BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS AND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND 21Z AND MOVE NORTHWEST AGAIN TODAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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