893
FXUS65 KMSO 162030
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MDT SAT OCT 16 2021
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY,
CONTINUING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TO MORE
UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY START AROUND 7000 FEET, LOWERING TO CLOSE TO 5500 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS (LOST
TRAIL, BANNOCK, GILMORE SUMMIT) HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CREATING SLICK CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL
TO BE WORKED OUT, IT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH COLDER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN SNOWFALL RETURNING. THIS NEXT WEEK VERY WELL
COULD BE OUR LAST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, SO ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS!
AVIATION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS
AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOME VERY
LOCALIZED FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR RIVERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF KGPI, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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