684
FXUS65 KMSO 071914
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
114 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASED WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CIRCULATION OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A BROAD
AREA OF DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. TONIGHT, THAT MEANS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF ABOUT 30 MPH
ACCOMPANYING ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON WEDNESDAY, ONLY WITH EXTENT OF STORM
CHANCES EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN
ADDITION TO AFTERNOON STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA,
WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES, ESPECIALLY FLATHEAD LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE GOING INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT 90S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE
LOWER SALMON AND CLEARWATER RIVER VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE REGION BETWEEN
JULY 13TH AND 15TH. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT WOULD INCREASE THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD, RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA, BRINGING LOCALIZED THREATS OF ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. A TRANSITIONING WEATHER PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE PERIODS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND CROSSWIND
IMPACTS AT REGIONAL TERMINALS, ALONGSIDE A RENEWED CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED AVIATION IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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