380
FXUS65 KMSO 092040
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
240 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SMOKE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY, WITH NORTHWEST MONTANA CURRENTLY SEEING THE WORST
IMPACTS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AROUND DILLON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A GRADUAL COOLING TREND ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGIONAL WILDFIRE
SMOKE HAS SETTLED HEAVILY ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA WHERE VISIBILITY AT THE KALISPELL AIRPORT HAS
REMAINED NEAR 2 MILES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY BY MONDAY AS WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE.
MONDAY REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. A SUBTLE FEATURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN QUITE LOW. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR THIS CONCERN, PARTICULARLY AROUND DILLON,
WHERE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL
CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN POTENTIALLY
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, A DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT—STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH
IN NORTHWEST MONTANA BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR BENEFICIAL MOISTURE WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH MARIAS PASS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES. BECAUSE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE, AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT-AND-MISS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FAVORS NORTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA, WHILE IDAHO WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE REGION
TRANSITIONS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRSPACE. SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 MILES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOST NOTABLY AT
KBTM WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES
WILL ALSO PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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