619
FXUS65 KMSO 280859
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
159 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOCALIZED LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
INITIALLY AROUND 5,000 FT.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT THREATENED TO SPILL OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAS LARGELY BEEN REPELLED, LEAVING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ASIDE FROM A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT AT MARIAS PASS THIS
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS, LESS WIND,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SUBTLE SHIFT FOR OUR SOUTHERN
REGIONS. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(SPECIFICALLY NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA). EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY MANIFEST AS
LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEYS, WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS.
TUESDAY:
THE MILD TREND CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES
ITS PEAK STRENGTH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
A DIP IN THE JET STREAM WILL BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (NEAR 5,000 FEET)
BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO AT OR NEAR VALLEY FLOORS BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND:
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. WHILE NO MAJOR STORMS ARE IMMEDIATELY APPARENT, WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP HIT-OR-MISS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WE ARE ALSO MONITORING LONG-RANGE SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIAL ARCTIC
INTRUSION TOWARDS THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SPECIFIC TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY SPILL WEST OF THE DIVIDE THIS MORNING, AND A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GLACIER REGION. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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