810
FXUS65 KMSO 030757
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
157 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY; COOL/COLD VALLEY LOWS
WITH PATCHY FROST.
- INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS SETTLED INTO A PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS,
WITH VALLEYS COOLING OFF OVER NIGHT. HIGHER AND TYPICALLY COOLER
VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF GETTING TO FREEZING ON ANY GIVEN
MORNING. WINDS IN GENERAL, WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
FOR THOSE THAT DO NOT WORK IN WILDLAND FIRE, TERRAIN DRIVEN MEANS
UP SLOPE/ UP VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND THEN DOWN SLOPE/ DOWN
VALLEY AT NIGHT. BASICALLY, THE HEATING OF MOUNTAIN SLOPES DURING
THE DAY AND COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL DRIVE THE WINDS.
WHAT WILL CAUSE CHANGES? WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY
INFLUENCE.
NEXT FRIDAY, THE MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
FOR CHANGE. WHILE A MAJORITY INDICATES SOME CHANGE, THEY ARE SPLIT
ON WHAT THAT CHANGE WILL LOOK LIKE. MORE DETAILS TO COME AS
VARIABILITY SLOWLY DECREASES WITHIN MODEL OUTCOMES.
AVIATION
VFR AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN GENERAL, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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