493
FXUS65 KMSO 302040
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
240 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2020
DISCUSSION
WE CURRENTLY HAVE ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. ALONG WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, THESE CONDITIONS POINT TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
BY THIS EVENING. SPOKES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS
ENERGY WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA,
BUT SPOTS THAT HAVE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO INITIATE IN THE BITTERROOT AND SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS AND THE
BITTERROOT VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST,
POSSIBLY AFFECTING MISSOULA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LATEST
PROJECTIONS SHOW THE STRONGEST STORMS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IN IDAHO
AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOCUSED IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
AVIATION
INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP WELL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL FUEL
THESE STORMS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ONE
WILDCARD IS THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION. THIS COULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTION, OR MAKE IT MORE INTENSE IF THE CAP IS BROKEN.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. WHERE IT DOES OCCUR, STORMS WILL BRING
SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN TAFS AT KGPI, KMSO,
AND KBTM. ACTIVITY WILL START IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH, SO KGPI
MIGHT NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL AROUND 31/0500Z. ON SUNDAY, A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER
NOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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