325
FXUS65 KMSO 021904
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
104 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY, BUT BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING
IN THICK SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES.
- COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A PROLONGED WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LAST NIGHT,
LEAVING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL TOP OUT COMFORTABLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER, BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE CONTINUOUS WINDS ARE PULLING IN
THICK SMOKE FROM HIGHLY ACTIVE WILDLAND FIRES ACROSS WASHINGTON,
AND SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION
BY TONIGHT.
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT, VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH-ELEVATION VALLEYS AND TYPICALLY COLD-PRONE LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID-30S BY EARLY MORNING,
PRESENTING A CHILLY START FOR CAMPERS AND EARLY-MORNING
RECREATIONISTS. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
INITIATE A PROLONGED WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO TAP
INTO NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON MOISTURE AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, MEANING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY. EXPECT VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
SMOKE IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. YESTERDAY'S EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS PRODUCED A MASSIVE SMOKE PLUME THAT POST-FRONTAL
WEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FUNNELING DIRECTLY INTO MONTANA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SMOKE INCREASING IN NORTHWEST MONTANA.
SMOKE MODELS HAVE THIS SMOKE EXPANDING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT, SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE, GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN COMMON TODAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, SOARING TEMPERATURES WILL REINTRODUCE HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE CONCERNS ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID-WEEK.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page