082
FXUS65 KMSO 141755
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1155 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM, APPROACHING
LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS AND MID 90S FOR THE LOW
VALLEYS IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CANADA WILL
HELP TO FLATTEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND BRING A STRONG JET
STREAM ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY IN IDAHO. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. LOCALIZED AREAS SUCH AS THE
BITTERROOT VALLEY, WESTERN MISSION VALLEY (HOT SPRINGS) AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH (30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE). DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SUCH AS SEMIS
AND RVS IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
CORRIDORS. DAMAGE TO TREES AND BRANCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. ADDITIONALLY, THOSE WITH
RECREATIONAL PLANS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AREA LAKES WILL BE
CHOPPY AND WINDS IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WILL BE EVEN STRONGER.
WEDNESDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER, WHICH KNOCKS
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWEST MONTANA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
HOWEVER MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS
TUESDAY, IF NOT EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AGAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIND AND
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO
WARM HIGH PRESSURE. ONGOING EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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