629
FXUS65 KMSO 250752
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
152 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (HOT, DRY, BREEZY) LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND REGION-WIDE.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE DEGRADING AIR QUALITY AND REDUCING VISIBILITY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW OF THE COMING WEEK DEMONSTRATES A DRIER LESS CONVECTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, REGIONAL SMOKE IS
LIKELY TO ADD STABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
NEAR TERM: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE PRESENT. HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED ON AREA LAKES AS CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM LOST TRAIL
PASS THROUGH BUTTE AND DEER LODGE. WITH LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SO DRY, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
REGIONAL SMOKE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT DEPICT
A SIGNIFICANT WORSENING IN AIR QUALITY OR IMPROVEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE ANY NEW LOCAL FIRES CAUSING DEGRADATIONS
TO ISOLATED AREAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HOT, DRY AND SMOKY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH, LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO OCCASIONAL, SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS LEMHI
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FORECAST MODELS DO HINT AT HIGH
PRESSURE RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY/ FRIDAY, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY FOR
THICKER SMOKE TO SETTLE INTO VALLEY BOTTOMS.
AVIATION
BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIMITED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES, THOUGH VISIBILITY SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR KBTM, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 25/2100Z THROUGH 26/0100Z
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IF THEY CROSS NEAR THE
TERMINALS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...NONE.
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