790
FXUS65 KMSO 011928
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
128 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THROUGH TUESDAY: A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
PROLONGED, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FOCUSED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE GLACIER PARK REGION.
- RIVER, STREAM, AND CREEK RISES FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
MELT WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF MINOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA.
- ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP GULF MOISTURE INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY AREAS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 93 SHOULD
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE GETTING UP TO 2
INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HOVERING AROUND 7000 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLATHEAD AND MISSION VALLEYS UNTIL TOMORROW FOR THE FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MISSION AND SWAN
MOUNTAIN RANGES. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE GLACIER NP
REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ROCK/MUD
SLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CLARK FORK RIVER
ABOVE MISSOULA AS WATER FROM UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE A MINOR BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME WARMING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THEN ON
THE WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE LOW STRETCHING AND
SPLITTING INTO TWO SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
CANADA AND A WEAK FEATURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IS
SENDING MOISTURE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE TODAY.
THE MOISTURE FEED IS PRIMARILY AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
NORTH OF ABOUT I-90 INCLUDING KMSO. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE AT
KGPI AND KMSO TODAY, WHILE MIGRATING SOUTH TO KHRF AND KBTM LATER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS REGION-WIDE STAY NORTHWEST OR
NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. DECREASED
VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR AT
TIMES DUE TO RAIN AND MIST THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TERRAIN TO BE
OBSCURED ACROSS ALL NORTHWEST MONTANA MOUNTAIN RANGES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FLOOD WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLATHEAD AND
MISSION VALLEY. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WEST
GLACIER REGION.
ID...NONE.
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