981
FXUS65 KMSO 152013
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
213 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
- 65 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WINDS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN THE
PINESDALE AREA OF THE WESTERN BITTERROOT VALLEY, 80 PERCENT
CHANCE IN ANACONDA LATER TUESDAY. ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE
POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
AS HIGHS COULD REACH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AS ROBUST
AFTERNOON MIXING ELEVATES VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND
90S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO, INCLUDING HELLS CANYON, OROFINO, AND THE
SALMON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF GRANGEVILLE. COINCIDING WITH THE
HEAT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PEAK
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM MDT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND
LEMHI COUNTY, IDAHO. ANTICIPATED IMPACTS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, CROSSWINDS AFFECTING HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES, AND POTENTIAL TREE DAMAGE LEADING TO LOCALIZED POWER
OUTAGES. FURTHERMORE, THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY ENVIRONMENT WILL
GENERATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD, MODEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AFTER 6 PM MDT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY MID-LEVEL, RIDGE-TOP WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA, INDUCING ELEVATED MOUNTAIN WAVES. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS, HINDERED BY A DEVELOPING STABLE
NOCTURNAL LAYER AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO FACILITATE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES A 25 TO 45
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH ALONG THE
WESTERN BITTERROOT VALLEY, PEAKING AT A 65 PERCENT PROBABILITY
NEAR PINESDALE. CONCURRENTLY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK,
POSING LOCALIZED THREATS OF LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER, RETURNING
THE REGION TO NEAR-SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TUESDAY'S
VALUES. LOWER VALLEYS IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW 100S BY FRIDAY, CARRYING AN 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
REACHING MODERATE HEATRISK AND POSING A THREAT TO VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS LACKING ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
REINTRODUCING WIND AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION
LIGHT WINDS AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL JET WILL DRAPE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY, BRINGING
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS REACHING 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON, THROUGH 17/0000Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM 16/2200Z TO 17/0300Z. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND SMALL
HAIL.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER
CLARK FORK REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS...
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN LEMHI
COUNTY...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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