664
FXUS65 KMSO 091953
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1253 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING
TROUGH
- MILD WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY FOR A CHANGE TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING NEXT WEEKEND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A CIRCULATION OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STREAM OF
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW IS ARRIVING ONSHORE, SOME OF WHICH IS
STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DRY OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
SCARCE, THOUGH, AS WILL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS INVOLVING A PACIFIC
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT ALMOST A WEEK OUT,
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST TODAY AND THEN WANE BY TUESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY BY 10/1200Z(5 AM MST FEB. 10). EXPECT
INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG TO FORM. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME CLEARING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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