196
FXUS65 KMSO 250839
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
239 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY ACROSS VALLEY AREAS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA,
LEMHI COUNTY, ID, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEAR THE DIVIDE, WITH
PEAK GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT HIGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6,000-7,000 FEET, FOLLOWED BY MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES, MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WIND AND FIRE RISK: STRONG WINDS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- MILD WEEKEND: A WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY, BRINGING ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA, FOCUSED ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WEST OF MISSOULA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE PREVIOUSLY IMPACTED
NORTHWEST MONTANA WHERE OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO 1.50 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE CABINET MOUNTAINS, WITH VALLEY AREAS ALONG THE ID/MT
BORDER IN LINCOLN AND SANDERS COUNTY RECEIVED 0.40-0.80 INCHES.
GIVEN HIGH SNOW LEVELS, RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS LEADING TO RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. WATER IS STILL MOVING DOWNSTREAM FROM
RECENT RAINS, WITH SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS EXPECTED TO PEAK BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT & SNOW LEVELS (WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY): A COLD FRONT
REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR, BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- NORTHWEST MONTANA: SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH TO 3,500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKOUT AND MARIAS PASSES MAY A COUPLE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, TRAVEL
IMPACTS APPEAR MINOR.
- SOUTHWEST MONTANA/LEMHI COUNTY: SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
7,000-7,500 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE FALLING REGION-WIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND HAZARDS: A 40-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WIND CONCERNS.
- PEAK GUSTS: 60-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS > 40 MPH IN LEMHI COUNTY AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA; 25-50% CHANCE OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR MOST
WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS (HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN NW MONTANA).
- MOUNTAIN AREAS: GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH, REACHING 60 MPH ALONG THE
DIVIDE.
- IMPACTS: EXPECT CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS AND RISKS FOR LOCALIZED
TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE EAST BEAVERHEAD (SOUTHWEST MONTANA) THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF PEAK WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE-
NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN, WITH 60% OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ON MONDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH. 40% OF MEMBERS BRING THE TROUGH INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT (80-90%) ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING (WIDESPREAD
COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER) ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA, PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ALONG I-90 WEST OF MISSOULA THIS MORNING. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH WAVES OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ID/MT BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BRING PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KTS. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY, ID, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...WEST GLACIER REGION.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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