696
FXUS65 KMSO 011828
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1228 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
DISCUSSION
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES, THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- CHOPPY WAVE ACTIVITY ON AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT SUMMER WARMTH RETURNS THEREAFTER.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD, LOW ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S AND 100S (F) AND WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLEASE CHECK FOR THE LATEST LOCAL
FIRE RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE DURING THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PERIOD. FOR THOSE RECREATING ON AREA LAKES, PARTICULARLY FLATHEAD
LAKE, EXPECT CHOPPY WAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
A MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S, AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE HIGH
30S FOR HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS, INCLUDING – BUT NOT LIMITED TO –
AREAS LIKE DIXIE, ID.
SOME FORECAST MODELS INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND INTO GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LEADING UP TO THIS, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
INITIALLY BRING GUSTY WINDS BEFORE RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT A WARM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO TEND TO AGREE THAT THE NEXT ITERATION OF
OUR SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT RIDGE.
AVIATION
HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL CONTINUE DUE TO HEAT TODAY. SMOKE FROM
AREA WILDFIRES AND INCREASING WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BEGINNING AROUND 01/2000Z AND CONTINUE PAST SUNSET AND FINALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM LOCAL AND REGIONAL
WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY-ONWARD.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR BITTERROOT...EAST LOLO...FLATHEAD RESERVATION...
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...KOOTENAI...WEST LOLO.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PALOUSE/HELLS
CANYON.
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