714
FXUS65 KMSO 101801
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1201 PM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
DISCUSSION
TODAY, SATELLITE IMAGERY PAINTS A PICTURE OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, COURTESY OF A DOMINATING HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SETUP IS SET TO MAINTAIN ITS
GRIP OVER THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY, POINTING TO CONTINUED MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD.
HOWEVER, THERE'S A TWIST IN THE FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A DISTURBANCE, A SHORTWAVE, SLIDING EASTWARD OF THE DIVIDE FROM
ALBERTA LATE SATURDAY. WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY TRIGGER SHOWERS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE, THERE'S
A CHANCE IT COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER TO THE GLACIER
REGION, WITH A FEW RADAR PROJECTIONS EVEN SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE OVER THE WEEKEND, SO TOO WILL THE AFTERNOON
WINDS, GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH EACH DAY. BY MONDAY, EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PEAK, WITH THE NBM V4.2 INDICATING A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD (>90 PERCENT) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH ACROSS A
BROAD SWATH OF THE REGION.
THE WARMING TREND ALSO SPELLS INCREASED SNOWMELT RUNOFF,
REFLECTED IN RISING RIVER LEVELS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. PROJECTIONS INDICATE A SHIFT FROM BELOW-AVERAGE
TO ABOVE-AVERAGE FLOWS BY TUESDAY. COLD WATER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS
ARE IMPORTANT THIS WEEKEND, SUCH AS WEARING A LIFE VEST AND
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON CHILDREN.
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE POINTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY THE RETURN OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. BEYOND TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY LOOMS LARGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TORN BETWEEN THE
PROSPECTS OF A COOL AND WET TROUGH OR A WARM AND DRY RIDGE.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AIRSPACE TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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