494
FXUS65 KMSO 040847
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
147 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT TODAY.
- EVENING SNOW FOR LOST TRAIL AND HOMESTAKE PASSES: SNOW WILL
INTENSIFY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER
HOMESTAKE PASS AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE TRAVEL MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT AFTER SUNSET.
A PACIFIC TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING BY MID-DAY FOR MOST MONTANA AND IDAHO
VALLEYS. SNOW WILL BEGIN FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 5,000-6,000
FEET. MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKE LOOKOUT AND LOLO WILL SEE WET SNOW
INITIALLY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW MORE LIKELY BY THE EVENING
COMMUTE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING, RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE DIVIDE, INCLUDING OVER LOST TRAIL AND
HOMESTAKE PASSES. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED, AND TRAVELERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, LEAVING
THE REGION IN A COLDER, UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS BEFORE SHOWERS BECOME MORE HIT-OR-MISS.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIT-OR-MISS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE,
PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
LIKELY PEAKING AGAIN ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
WE ARE TRACKING A 30% PROBABILITY OF AN ARCTIC WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS MARCH 9TH, OR AS LATE AS THE 12TH. WHILE THE
REST OF THE CLUSTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT SHOWING AN ARCTIC
SYSTEM, THEY DO SHOW A COLDER AND WETTER PATTERN AS OPPOSED TO
WHERE WE HAVE BEEN. THIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
HIGH-IMPACT WINTER WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD OBSCURED TERRAIN AND
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE VALLEYS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES,
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS. A RAPID TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH KBTM. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS ON THURSDAY WITH
HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND WEST WINDS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
ID...NONE.
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