488
FXUS65 KMSO 070849
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
249 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLATHEAD AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TODAY, WITH A HANDFUL
OF OBSERVING SITES, INCLUDING WEST GLACIER RECORDING 0.25 INCHES
OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS TROUGH THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA.
A WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL LEAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS REACHING 15-30 MPH ACROSS VALLEY AREAS
(HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTH OF I-90). THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS FLATHEAD AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND, ESPECIALLY
BY SUNDAY UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH (80%
PROBABILITY) FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A MINORITY OF GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES (20% OF MEMBERS) SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST 07/1400Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE, WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS THIS MORNING. A WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH AREA TERMINALS SEEING GUSTS OF 15-25KT. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE BY 07/1900Z, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE DIVIDE, WITH LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES PEAKING AT 20-30%
ACROSS FLATHEAD COUNTY, INCLUDING KGPI BY 08/0000Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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