943
FXUS65 KPIH 261728
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL MAINLY MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE WEEK
- EXTREMELY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
WE ARE LOOKING AT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE BULK
OF THIS FALLS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
FOR 48 HOUR AMOUNTS, LOOK FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE MAYBE A TENTH IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE EVEN A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY FALLING. UP TO 0.20" COULD FALL IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (SAWTOOTHS AND LOST RIVER
RANGE), AS WELL AS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND AROUND SAWTELLE
PEAK/TARGHEE PASS. THERE IS A 20-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS, AND MAYBE A 10-20% CHANCE OF EEKING OUT
OVER 0.40"...BUT THOSE NUMBERS SEEM WAY OVERDONE BASED ON THE
TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S THROUGH MID 50S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THAT PUTS US
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
THINGS START TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DIGS INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS BUT THINGS TAKE A DOWNWARD TURN STARTING ON SATURDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON THE DEPTH AND INTRUSION
OF THE COLD AIR AND A LARGE SPREAD AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
REMAINS. AS SUCH, STILL SEEING A RATHER LARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE NBM
ITSELF ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT WE'VE
SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT WITH THE MODELS, THESE NUMBERS COULD GET NUDGED UP OR DOWN
OVER THE DAYS AHEAD GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. ON THE PRECIP
FRONT, THINGS LOOK TO BE TRENDING A BIT DRIER WITH THIS PUSH OF
COLDER AIR AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS, STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME MENTION
OF POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
BUT STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY HIGH IMPACT SNOWFALL AT THE PRESENT
TIME. AGAIN, THIS CAN STILL CHANGE THIS FAR OUT AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
AT THE VALLEY FLOORS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOULD HAVE
A BIT MORE CLARITY ON THIS BY THE TIME WE GET CLOSER TO THANKSGIVING
DAY AND SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. STAY
TUNED OVER THE DAYS AHEAD!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
WEAKLY UNSETTLED WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED
ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY. DIJ THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE IFR
SHSN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AM.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN MVFR SHSN FOR SUN OR AN EXTREMELY
LIGHT FLURRY AT THE OTHER TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...DMH
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