753
FXUS65 KPIH 061723
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1023 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER EASTERN IDAHO, MAINTAINING
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, YET AGAIN, WITH LOWER VALLEYS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
COOL, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS, THESE TOO CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMS. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS OR
TRAVELS CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
IT FINALLY DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE GOING TO SEE PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE MODELS, ENSEMBLES, AND AI VERSIONS OF THOSE
MODELS. THE ECMWF AND THAT "CAMP" REMAINS TO BE WETTER VS THE
GFS AND ITS "CAMP". THE ECMWF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER, WHICH WOULD
MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (ESPECIALLY THE SAWTOOTHS) ARE FAVORED AS
WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS CLOSER TO
ISLAND PARK, YELLOWSTONE, AND THE TETONS. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE SAWTOOTHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST MAIN
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF MORE THAN
0.50" OF MOISTURE DURING THAT PERIOD IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND 30-60%
IN THE TETONS AND AROUND ISLAND PARK. IN THE SAME AREAS, A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE OF 1" IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND 15-30% FOR THE
TETONS AND MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING ISLAND PARK. PRECIPITATION
LATER IN THE WEEK IS EVEN MORE "IFFY" DUE TO WILD VARIATIONS IN
HOW INDIVIDUAL LOWS ARE HANDLED BY EACH MODEL. IT IS DEFINITELY
A TIME TO LEAN ON THE BLEND OF MODELS AND LET THAT FORECAST
RIDE. THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO SEE
SOME NEEDED MOISTURE, BUT THE PATTERN DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE ARE
JUST GOING TO BE INUNDATED AND PUTTING ANY BIG DENTS IN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE FOR SEASON FOR SOME FOLKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH ONE POTENTIAL WRINKLE IN
THAT EXPECTATION. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
INTO IDAHO FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL TO
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BYI AND PIH. A VERY
WEAK FEATURE SLIDES ALONG THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASED SIGNAL IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF IDA AND DIJ, KEEPING THOSE SITES DRY, BUT DID
LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY WITH A NOD TOWARD THAT TREND. SHOULD
THAT SIGNAL INCREASE, DIJ COULD SHIFT CLOSER TOWARD HIGH END MVFR
CIGS AND INCLUSION OF AT LEAST VCSH. FOR NOW, THAT CHANCE IS LESS
THAN 15%.
AIR QUALITY
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVERHEAD AND AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE AIR STAGNATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ054-059.
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...KEYES
AVIATION...DMH
AIR QUALITY...GK
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