399  
FXUS65 KPIH 301005  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
405 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- DAILY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  
 
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR  
STORMS, SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A  
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY, WITH A  
GRADUAL COOLING TREND STARTING THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST MOVING EAST WITH A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUING TO TRACK SW TO NE OUT AHEAD OF THE  
MAIN TROUGH. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN  
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING  
AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HREF MODEL  
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TODAY SHOWS A 20-60% CHANCE IN THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND EASTERN  
HIGHLANDS, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OR LESS ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT,  
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH YET AGAIN,  
WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50  
MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE  
AFTER SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY  
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN  
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AROUND 1-6 DEGREE  
REGIONWIDE AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG  
THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS  
DROPPING TO LOW 80S TO LOW 90S IN ADDITION TO HELPING KICK OFF  
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND  
IN COVERAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED REGIONWIDE WITH MORE SCATTERED  
COVERAGE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EASTERN HIGHLANDS,  
AND SOUTH HILLS. STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY  
RAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
FAVORED THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
DAILY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PEAKING  
IN COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST FROM  
THE PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO  
NEXT WEEK AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE  
ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY FURTHER NORTH.  
HIGHS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS  
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST IN THE MID 70S TO MID  
80S. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A WARMING TREND RETURNING STARTING  
WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
OVERHEAD. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME KEEPS  
THE BULK OF MORE ORGANIZED TROUGHS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ONLY  
ALLOWS FOR WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER EASTERN IDAHO,  
WHICH KEEPS CONDITIONS DRIER IN THE LATEST FORECAST FOR EARLY  
TO MID NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THESE TROUGHS TRACK A BIT FURTHER EAST,  
WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT THE  
NBM IS LEANING MORE AND MORE TOWARDS THAT DRIER SOLUTION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES  
MODELS SHOW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUN, IDA, AND DIJ THIS  
AFTERNOON. DIJ LOOKS MOST LIKELY AND IF THE NEWEST GUIDANCE IS  
CORRECT MOST LIKELY WOULD SIDESTEP IDA AND SUN. WITH THAT SAID, WILL  
CONTINUE TO MENTION 30% PROBABILITY AT ALL SITES HIGHLIGHT GUSTY  
WIND POTENTIAL WHICH COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE  
STORM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
DAILY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
INTO EASTERN IDAHO. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PEAK EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING,  
WITH VERY ISOLATED CHANCES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS. BEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN  
CONFINED TO IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 411, 422, 475, AND 476,  
WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN ZONES 410, 413, 425, AND 427.  
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED EACH DAY  
TO HIGHLIGHT (IF NEEDED) THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES THAT ARE APPROACHING CRITICAL  
(411/475/476) OR ARE ALREADY CRITICAL (422). STRONGER STORMS  
EACH DAY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,  
SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SEE A  
GRADUAL COOLING TREND STARTING THURSDAY, AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE  
70S AND 80S LATER IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RHS  
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND  
TEENS (TEENS/20S FURTHER NORTH), AHEAD OF A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT  
REGIONWIDE LATER IN THE WEEK GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
THIS WILL ALLOW RHS RETURNING MOSTLY TO THE TEENS/20S WITH  
POCKETS IN THE 30S. WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORM  
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEK, WITH GUSTS PEAKING  
GENERALLY AROUND 15-30 MPH. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH  
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS/TEENS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-30 MPH, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL  
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS CATEGORY. HOWEVER, ELEVATED  
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE  
DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MACKAY  
LONG TERM...MACKAY  
AVIATION...13  
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY  
 
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