373
FXUS65 KPIH 210818
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
118 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES LATER TODAY, THE BULK OF THIS ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A PORTION OF THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WE MAY ALSO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN (ESPECIALLY
THE BENCH AREAS FROM AMERICAN FALLS TO IDAHO FALLS), BUT NOTHING
IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED IF SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP. IT WILL BE BREEZY
BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, NOTHING REALLY IS EXPECTED IN TERMS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
FOR MOST FOLKS. SNOWFALL-WISE, LOOK FOR LESS THAN AN INCH EXCEPT
FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
30-45% CHANCE OF MORE THAN THAT ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SAWTOOTHS
AND SURROUNDING HIGHEST PEAKS. THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE KICKS OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS,
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THAT DOES INCLUDE THE BENCH AREAS
FROM BURLEY TO REXBURG. ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING PEAKS, WITH A THIRD QUICK
HITTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST FOR TODAY, BUT LOOKING AT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON
AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. KEYES
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
COURTESY OF A FAVORABLE STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC, A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS REMAIN ON TRACK TO BUILD IN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE JET STREAM DROPS SOUTH AND ALLOWS FOR BENEFICIAL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO IDAHO. THE TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT FOR NOW REMAINS FOCUSED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, THEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THEN THURSDAY/FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. COURTESY OF W/SW FLOW THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S/40S EACH AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH
EACH SYSTEM. THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS MOVING IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE THE
STRONGER/WETTER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
WHEN TAKING A LOOK AT THE OVERALL SIX DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS,
AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND 0.25-
1.00" IN THE VALLEYS AND 1.00-2.00" INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAVORABLE W/SW UPSLOPE
REGIONS. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE WRN CNTRL MOUNTAINS, HIGHER
ELEVATION SE OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND ISLAND PARK/TETONS
REGION. THE DRIEST AREAS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND THE LOST RIVER
RANGE NE INTO SW MONTANA WHERE SHADOWING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE W/SW WILL BLOCK THE BULK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH RESPECT TO
TRANSPORTATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS, AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING MINOR IMPACTS EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LEADING TO WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT MORE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. MACKAY
AVIATION
PREDOMINANT VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO IDAHO LATER TODAY. THE IMPACTS FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN MINOR WITH LOWER CIGS, A MIX OF
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS. BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
FOCUS AROUND KSUN THIS EVENING AND KDIJ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHANCES
EXPANDING TO ALL TERMINALS. MACKAY
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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