396
FXUS65 KPIH 110919
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THE
NEXT THREE DAYS AND NIGHTS, EXCEPT IN ALPINE BASINS LIKE
STANLEY.
- WINDS STAY LIGHT UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN IT BECOMES BREEZY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...IN THE MIDDLE OF A WEAK AND WARM
WINTER STORM RIGHT NOW. THE STORM SLOWED DURING THE DAY TUE AND
ARRIVED 6 TO 12 HOURS LATER THAN LAST NIGHT'S THINKING. THUS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AT MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ANOTHER 12 HOURS. AFTER THIS STORM EXITS, THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET, WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
ONLY RISK MAY BE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG OR STRATUS.
SPC INDICATES A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A NARROW STRIP OF
IDAHO FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEARS WATCHING, BUT THE THREAT
BARELY MISSES MENTION IN THE FORMATTER WITH PROBABILITY AROUND
10 PERCENT FOR A JUST A FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TO STAYING MILDER, WITH MORE
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 40 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR BOTH TODAY, THU, AND FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING THROUGH THU NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS LOW WILL STAY IN UT AND NV, SO THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
SAT THROUGH TUE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL
FAR FROM THE COAST ON SAT, SO DOUBTFUL MUCH PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SOLUTION AT BEST PUT THE WARM
OVERRUNNING AREA OF THE WINTER STORM THIS FAR EAST. ONLY A
CLUSTER THAT FEATURES 26 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS PROPAGATES THE
TROUGH THAT FAR. FOR SUN, THE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO MORE LIKELY
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT IS DIGGING SOUTH AND
DEEPENING. ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS, BROKEN INTO THREE
CLUSTERS, BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIPITATION.
EASTERN IDAHO CONTINUES TO STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR, SO THIS IS
ANOTHER LOW ELEVATION RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW EVENT.
TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS, ACTUALLY WARM DURING THE
WEEKEND; NOT MUCH, BUT SOME. WIND INCREASES WITH THIS WINTER
STORM, BUT NOT TO ANY OVERLY STRONG THRESHOLD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
A CHANGE WITH MOISTURE FROM NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS AT ALL SITES
10 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS
WELL. HAVE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT BYI
AT 12Z AND PIH AT 17Z. WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 18Z AT IDA AND SUN
WHEN THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS. KEPT IT SNOW AT DIJ. KEPT MVFR/IFR
CIGS FOR IDA AND DIJ ALL AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW
PIH AND BYI TO GO BACK TO MVFR IF NOT IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLY FOG TOMORROW EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ060-063-
064-066.
DISCUSSION...MESSICK
AVIATION...TW
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