272  
FXUS65 KPIH 291004  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
404 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  
 
- DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
 
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE QUESTION OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HRRR IS VERY  
BULLISH ON DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SNAKE  
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN OCCUR WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM JUST SHOWS MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP WHILE  
THE HREF SHOWS SOME MODEST RETURNS THAT HOLD IN THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS DRY AND THE NBM IS SIMILAR TO THE HREF,  
KEEPING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE  
NUMBER OF MODELS THAT AREN'T AS BULLISH WITH THE CONVECTION, THE NBM  
FORECAST IS PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. BUT THERE IS PROBABLY  
A 20 OR 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE HRRR COULD VERIFY AND WE HAVE  
STORMS ROLL ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS  
DEVELOP, EXPECT THOSE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY FOR  
MOST COMMUNITIES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AND  
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS  
WEEKEND, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH  
LABOR DAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 80S FOR  
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY. LEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK POST-HOLIDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT SOME DIFFERENT SCENARIOS  
REGARDING ENCROACHMENT OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST INLAND. THE RESULT  
IN DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN AND EAST IDAHO. THE NBM MEANS REINTRODUCE WEAK THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND MAINTAINS  
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
 
MAIN CONCERN IS IF STORMS DEVELOP. THE HRRR AND WRF  
CONTINUES TO SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN. POTENTIALLY THIS WOULD  
IMPACT SUN, IDA, AND PIH. MOST OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE  
WITH THE CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A PROB 30 AT THESE  
SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
 
DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THERE  
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY. OTHERWISE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.  
ONCE AGAIN A STRAY STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE CHANCES ARE  
PROBABLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...13  
LONG TERM...DMH  
AVIATION...13  
FIRE WEATHER...13  
 
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