800
FXUS65 KPIH 312255
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
455 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING TRANSITION: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY VANISH
LATE THIS WEEK AS A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS A RETURN OF
RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
- THURSDAY SNOW: SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS BY
THURSDAY AM. WHILE SIGNIFICANT VALLEY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND PASSES.
- BREEZY & RAW: THURSDAY WILL FEEL PARTICULARLY "RAW" WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY.
- EASTER WEEKEND OUTLOOK: A RAPID WARMING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY, LEADING TO A DRY, SUNNY, AND VERY WARM EASTER
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 70S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EASTERN IDAHO IS CURRENTLY ENTERING A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME ROLLER
COASTER RIDE. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WIDESPREAD
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IS THE
PRECURSOR TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. RADAR IS
ALREADY DETECTING LIGHT, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, AND WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT ISN'T OVERLY UNSTABLE, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WE MOVE INTO
WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM A STEADY,
STRATIFORM NATURE OVERNIGHT BACK INTO MORE CELLULAR, HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS)
REMAIN HIGH, THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT (QPF) IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LOW DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE HEART OF THE COLD CORE
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DRIVE SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY. WHILE WE EXPECT TO SEE APRIL FLAKES FLYING IN THE
VALLEYS, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AND HIGH
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SPECIFICALLY ABOVE 6,500 FEET. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE STANLEY BASIN, KETCHUM, AND ISLAND
PARK AREAS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS BETWEEN 6,000 AND 7,000 FEET. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL
TOTALS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 8,000 FEET ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND
PASSES—SUCH AS GALENA AND EMIGRATION—WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES IS
LIKELY, WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. WHILE
THESE TOTALS CURRENTLY FALL BELOW WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A "RAW" DAY BY ALL ACCOUNTS, WITH BREEZY WINDS
NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
30S AND 40S.
THE SILVER LINING IN THIS FORECAST IS THE BREVITY OF THE COLD
SNAP. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO WYOMING BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE IN ITS WAKE. WHILE FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE WITH A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DRY-OUT AND A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES. VALLEY HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPPER 60S FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME. INCOMING
STORM BRINGS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO
THREATEN SHSN AT KDIJ DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING WITH -SHRA, THE WORST CIG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR. KSUN IS AT A SLIGHT RISK FOR IFR
CIG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. KDIJ IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE IFR CIG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIME WHEN SHSN IS A POSSIBILITY. THIS
ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR VSBY. VSBY AROUND 2SM POSSIBLE AT KDIJ AND
LIKELY 4SM IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LATE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MID-MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY SPREADING IN, AND WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, LETTING UP ONLY A LITTLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MOST WILL SEE A BREAK STARTING IN
THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING FOR ALL BUT THE TWO MOUNTAIN
AIRDROMES INTO THE EVENING. FOR KSUN AND KDIJ, BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER TSRA ACTIVITY.
CURRENTLY IT BARELY QUALIFIES FOR A PROB30 GROUP. EXPECT THE
TSRA TO END DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THUS ONLY A SHORT 5 OR 6
HOUR PERIOD OF TSRA AROUND.
FINALLY, THE WIND SHOULD PICK UP IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
SIGNIFICANTLY, SO MOST OTHER AIRDROMES SHOULD BE G25KT OR LESS
WITH SUSTAINED UP TO AROUND 15KT. EXCEPTIONS ARE G30KT WITH TSRA
AND G35KT FOR KBYI AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHER
VALLEY AIRPORTS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WIND AFTER 02/00Z.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...MESSICK
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