081
FXUS65 KPIH 181816
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1216 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING LATER ON TODAY
- BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
- FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING UP
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT MONDAY MAY 18 2026
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY CHURN TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER. WE COULD SEE SNOW FALLING AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT
ANYTHING THAT FALLS AND ACCUMULATES SHOULD MELT LATER IN THE
DAY. ACROSS THE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND ALBION MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BIGGER OVERALL ISSUE
IS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH SHOULD BE PEAKING EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
TO EXCEED THE LOW END FOR WIND ADVISORY, BUT THOSE POCKET SHOULD
BE SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM ISSUING SOMETHING. THAT SAID, WE
ARE GOING TO EASILY EXCEED THE NORTHEAST WIND THRESHOLD FOR
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR, THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE OTHER ISSUE IS COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WE DO HAVE A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY OUT
FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING. AT THE
MOMENT, THE WIND IS HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM.
HOWEVER, WE ARE SEEING COLDER AIR SLIPPING ACROSS THE MONTANA
BORDER. THAT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE USUAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT, WE SEE NO NEED TO END THE HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, WITH LESS WIND, WE ARE LIKELY IN LINE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. WE WILL ALSO HAVE LESS
CLOUD COVER AROUND. HIGHS TODAY BARELY TOP OUT ABOVE 60 IN A FEW
SPOTS.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED STORMS
CLOSER TO THE MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THE MOMENT, THIS MAY BE A SIMPLE ROUND OF VIRGA/SPRINKLES, BUT
CERTAINLY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DAILY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE MONTANA BORDER. TEMPERATURES DO EVENTUALLY
STARTING WARMING UP, HEADING ACTUALLY TOWARD AVERAGE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND ABOVE AVERAGE LATER IN THE WEEK, AS WE SWITCH FROM
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY N/NE WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN/TETON VALLEY TERMINALS AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. KSUN AND KBYI WILL SEE A MORE WESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND NOT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS
THE OTHER LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AT TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE CLEAR INTO TUESDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR IDZ051-055.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
IDZ052>054.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
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