823
FXUS65 KPIH 070859
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
DISCUSSION
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME MORNING SHOWERS SHIFTING THROUGH
THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ALONG THE FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH, EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE ISLAND PARK AREA.
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS, CLEAR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. TOMORROW, WE'RE BACK IN A WARM AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHILE ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE OF WINDS ON FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SHORT WAVE, BUT MODELS SHOW NO MOISTURE COMING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH, AND A SETUP FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF MONSOON MOISTURE. MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
AVIATION
WHAT FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE OVER EASTERN IDAHO SHOULD
BE CLEARING OUT BY 07/18Z EVEN FOR THE EASTERN AIRPORTS, EARLIER FOR
KSUN. THESE CLOUDS ARE FROM A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
THAT HAS A MAIN EFFECT ON THE WINDS. EXPECT THE THREE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AIRDROMES TO BE WINDY, WITH SUSTAINED
WIND REACHING 20+ KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSUN AND KDIJ WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION
ALIGNS WITH THE VALLEY ORIENTATION. TSRA SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE ID-
MT BORDER REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN LEMHI COUNTY, IF THERE IS ANY.
MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT A COOL-DOWN TODAY AS A DRY LOW DRAGS A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS, BUT THE WIND
WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH IN THE BLM LANDS, SO GUSTS SHOULD
EASILY GO ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE COOL-DOWN THOUGH DOES KEEP ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE ARCO DESERT
ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WED,
THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH RE-BUILDS INTO EASTERN AND
CENTRAL IDAHO, WARMING AND DRYING SHOULD RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA TO BRING THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT LIKELY PLENTY OF
WIND. MESSICK
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ054.
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