084
FXUS65 KPIH 271831
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1231 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TODAY WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
- LOOKING LIKE A WET, CHILLY HALLOWEEN/WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
CURRENTLY THERE IS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO.
UPSTREAM, THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON.
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER OUR AREA. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW ONE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM DRIGGS TO SUN VALLEY WITH A .01 TO .05
INCH OF QPF. MODELS ALSO SHOW UP TO AROUND 0.10 OF QPF IN THE ISLAND
PARK REGION, THE BEAR LAKE REGION, AND THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY MAINLY FOR RIDGE TOPS AND IN THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
PATCHY FOG NEAR WATER SOURCES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEARLY A REPEAT OF TODAY, THOUGH DRIER AS WE
BRIEFLY RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR WATER SOURCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE PNW BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO EASTERN IDAHO FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BEGIN TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO US AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT HAS BACK OFF SOME WITH
MORE MOISTURE COMING IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY,
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HALLOWEEN) MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 0.02 TO 0.10 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME
MODELS HOLD OFF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN DEEP TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST PULLS AMPLE
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY, AND 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, SO STAY TUNED FOR THOSE AMOUNTS AS WE GET A
LITTLE CLOSER TO IT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHILE THE ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS GONE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP AROUND SOME ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, SO VCSH CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST
BUT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW. SOME LOW CLOUDS SEEM
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IF WINDS DROP A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY BUT THIS COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC IF DENSE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AS IT STANDS NOW, VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH LATE YESTERDAY INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND BRING AN ISOLATED RAIN CHANCE BACK WITH IT FOR PARTS OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THAT SAID, ADDITIONAL QPF TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIGHT, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND MANY WILL STAY DRY. WINDS
STAY BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH IN THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND 15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER, BUT
HIGHS STAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. WE WARM
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE SEE THE
RETURN OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE TO US FOR THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER COOL DOWN.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TW
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...AMM
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