673
FXUS65 KPIH 202046
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT DID TANK, AS EXPECTED, AND SOME FAR MORE THAN EXPECTED.
RECOVERY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL HIT OR MISS, WITH MANY
SITES ACROSS THE NORTH STILL SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WITH ONLY A
FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR ANY CHANCE AT ADDITIONAL HEATING,
EXPECT ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT. AREA OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, LIMITING ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PERHAPS PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES OF BLANKET WARMING FOR
SOME AREAS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD START TO THE EVENING BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPERATURES, TIMING AND THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD DECK COULD
PRODUCE SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURES TRACES OVERNIGHT. THAT
SAID, CONTINUED TREND OF BLENDING TOWARD LOW END PROBABILISTIC
(10TH PERCENTILE) TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE SOME 2-5 DEGREES BELOW
NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, FOR SAME AREAS AS
BEFORE, WITH TEMPERATURES AND/OR WIND CHILLS DROPPING AROUND -20
AGAIN.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE DRIVES ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA MAINLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS FEATURE JUST SKIMS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR ISLAND PARK, BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NBM TO GENERATE VERY WEAK POPS ACROSS THE
ISLAND PARK REGION. MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED, SO THESE POPS
ARE LIKELY AN INDICATION OF A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND NOT MUCH
ELSE. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS INCLUDING SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES
GENERATE ZERO QPF FOR THIS REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. DMH
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. OUR VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND IN THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30
IN THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY FRIDAY,
HIGHS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WHILE PARTS
OF THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH AN ACTUAL CLOSED LOW WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO BEFORE DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION HEADING OUR WAY, THOUGH AT THIS POINT TOTALS LOOK
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MANY SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS
AND ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW UP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AT THIS POINT, THE NBM ONLY SHOWS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW TOTALS EXCEEDING AN INCH IN THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN THE 48 HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN, WE'RE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT FROM THIS SO
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN IN THE
30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
AMM
AVIATION
18Z MONDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, BUT CIGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT. COLD, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTS WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AND CLOUDS THINNING OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON.
AMM
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR IDZ052>054-061-
062-065>067.
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