312
FXUS65 KPIH 291147
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
447 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REBUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MEAN BOUTS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 137 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS REBOUNDING OVER THE REGION AND WITH THAT, WE ARE
SEEING THE RETURN OF NIGHTTIME/MORNING STRATUS. WHILE WE EXPECT TO
GAIN A FEW DEGREES BACK ON OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER
COULD INHIBIT DAYTIME WARMING. WINDS ARE STILL CURRENTLY ELEVATED A
BIT, WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP FOG LOCALIZED AND VISIBILITY IMPACTS
LESS WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY DAY
AND WHILE WE MAY BREAK OUT OF THE STRATUS, MODELS SHOW IT RETURNING
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
OVER THE RIDGE TO LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERALLY BACK IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT MODELS STILL SHOW A SMALL CHANCE (20-30%) OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
WORKING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE ISLAND PARK TO DRIGGS
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS TRENDING DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY, AND IT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE THAT DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUE. EVEN IF
WE MANAGE TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THAT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK MOSTLY LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS. WE WILL BE BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGHS WILL WARM BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY, ALLOWING MORE OF US TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND EVEN BE
PUSHING THE 50S AROUND OAKLEY AND MALTA. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH A FEW MORE 50S POPPING UP AND EVEN
THOSE THAT DON'T HIT 50, STILL REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THERE
IS A 75 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF AREAS BETWEEN BURLEY AND AMERICAN
FALLS REACHING 50 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. THAT DROPS TO ABOUT A 60 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE AROUND POCATELLO AND A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FROM
FORT HALL TO FIRTH. AT THIS POINT, THE NBM ONLY GIVES IDAHO FALLS
ABOUT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST 50 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED EASTWARD AS WE WRAP
UP THE WEEKEND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME MORE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND COOL
OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
ONLY IMPACT FOR THE PERIOD IS LOW STRATUS AND/OR FG OR BR. HREF
GUIDANCE IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN NBM, HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS THUS FAR
TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE NOT ALIGNED WELL WITH MODELED
CIGS AND VIS OF EITHER. WHILE HREF AND NBM BOTH INDICATED
ROUGHLY 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KBYI AND KPIH, THE
LATEST OB AT KPIH CONTAINS LIFR CIGS. FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KBYI AND KSUN, HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST TERMINALS TRENDING
MVFR TO LIFR WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND RETURNING IMPACTS TONIGHT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CROPP
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...CROPP
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