395
FXUS65 KPIH 132322
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
522 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER AND FAIRLY STABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE, A TROUGH ASCENDING
OUT OF CANADA WILL COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH
DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL SPAN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOW
ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER-50S AND 60S. AS THE RIDGE IS PUSHED FURTHER EAST,
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASINGLY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS
CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS REMAINING DRY AND MOST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH. STORM
COVERAGE WILL TREND SCATTERED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN HEADING
INTO MID-WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AT JUST OVER
ONE INCH. HEADING INTO LATER WEEK, ENSEMBLES SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH IDAHO ON THE
PERIPHERY OF IT. THIS IS RESULTING IN NATIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES
STABILIZING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH AS ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST. THIS
WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND THUS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS, WITH A
LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN PWAT VALUES NOTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE OUT THERE THIS EVENING, THOUGH NO
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, AND HAVE
ADDED SOME VCSH INTO THE KSUN AND KDIJ TAFS AS A RESULT. SHOWERS MAY
ENCROACH INTO THE KBYI AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW UNTIL
ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM, VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND IN THE 90S
OVERALL FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
ENOUGH TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THIS ACCUMULATIVELY,
THAT HEAT-RELATED STRESS IS STILL LIKELY TODAY FOR CREWS OUT
WORKING CURRENT OR ANY NEW FIRES. WITH THE RIDGE SLIPPING A BIT
MORE EASTWARD TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL SHIFT MORE ACROSS IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS, WHICH HAS A LOW
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VIRGA AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. WE ARE
EXPECTING ISOLATED DRY STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH. STARTING TOMORROW, DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STREAM
ACROSS IDAHO DAILY, FOR ANY INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME
AREAS OFF AND ON, AND ALSO SOME HIGHER CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES/WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THIS PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN LENDS ITSELF TO LESS LEAD-TIME PERHAPS ON ANY TYPE OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, GUSTS
OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALMOST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ051>059-064-065.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ060>063-
066>068-070-075.
DISCUSSION...CROPP
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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