449
FXUS65 KPIH 081051
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
451 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
- BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
OUR WARM UP IS GETTING UNDERWAY TODAY WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. IN THE MID ELEVATIONS, HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE REALLY GETTING A HOLD ON EASTERN IDAHO, WE WILL
STILL SEE THE INTRUSION OF SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
SOME ISOLATED TO NEARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. LOOK
FOR MOST OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE DRY STORMS AS TOTAL QPF
TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCHES. ANY STORMS TODAY
WILL GENERALLY USE THE TERRAIN TO GET GOING AND ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OUR NORTH, NEAR THE MONTANA DIVIDE. THE LATEST HREF 24-HOUR
THUNDER PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDER NEAR IDAHO FALLS AND INCREASES TO CLOSER TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT NEAR THE DIVIDE. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE CAPE LEVELS
RANGE FROM 100 TO 450 J/KG WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.0
C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. GIVEN THESE NUMBERS,
WOULD EXPECT MAX GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY TO RANGE FROM 35 TO
45 MPH. AS STORMS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REST OF FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP EXTREMELY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS AND 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE
VALLEYS. VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS
TO PUSH EAST OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO
IDAHO. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM SUNDAY WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S AND
VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 6
THOUSAND TO 7500 FEET TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO THE 50S MOUNTAINS AND 60S VALLEYS ON MONDAY. WILL
SEE A LOT OF 40S IN MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS
WITH WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY THEN. WILL SEE SOME WARMING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY BACK INTO THE 50S
MOUNTAINS AND 60S VALLEYS. WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH DAILY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHOULD HAVE GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS. MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS NEAR DIJ THIS AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF THERE. OTHER SITES WILL SEE
SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BYI, PIH AND IDA
AND SOME FEW TO SCATTERED MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...GK
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