823  
FXUS65 KPIH 070859  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
259 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE  
REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH-  
RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME MORNING SHOWERS SHIFTING THROUGH  
THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ALONG THE FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG THE  
UPPER TROUGH, EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE ISLAND PARK AREA.  
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS, CLEAR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR FOR MOST OF  
THE DAY TODAY. TOMORROW, WE'RE BACK IN A WARM AND DRY WEATHER  
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION WHILE ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE TO OUR  
NORTH. WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE OF WINDS ON FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY  
OF THE SHORT WAVE, BUT MODELS SHOW NO MOISTURE COMING THROUGH  
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE  
STRENGTHENING OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH, AND A SETUP FOR THE  
POTENTIAL OF MONSOON MOISTURE. MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON  
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. HINSBERGER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
WHAT FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE OVER EASTERN IDAHO SHOULD  
BE CLEARING OUT BY 07/18Z EVEN FOR THE EASTERN AIRPORTS, EARLIER FOR  
KSUN. THESE CLOUDS ARE FROM A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT  
THAT HAS A MAIN EFFECT ON THE WINDS. EXPECT THE THREE SNAKE RIVER  
PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AIRDROMES TO BE WINDY, WITH SUSTAINED  
WIND REACHING 20+ KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
KSUN AND KDIJ WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WHEN THE WIND DIRECTION  
ALIGNS WITH THE VALLEY ORIENTATION. TSRA SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE ID-  
MT BORDER REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN LEMHI COUNTY, IF THERE IS ANY.  
MESSICK  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
EXPECT A COOL-DOWN TODAY AS A DRY LOW DRAGS A FRONT  
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS, BUT THE WIND  
WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH IN THE BLM LANDS, SO GUSTS SHOULD  
EASILY GO ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
THE COOL-DOWN THOUGH DOES KEEP ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE ARCO DESERT  
ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WED,  
THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH RE-BUILDS INTO EASTERN AND  
CENTRAL IDAHO, WARMING AND DRYING SHOULD RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO  
SAT AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE IDAHO  
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MONTANA TO BRING THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WITH  
VERY LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT LIKELY PLENTY OF  
WIND. MESSICK  
 

 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS  
EVENING FOR IDZ054.  
 

 
 

 
 
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