759  
FXUS65 KPIH 101939  
AFDPIH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
139 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CONTINUED WARM TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
- PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK!  
 
- 1-3" SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED ABOVE 6500 FT INCLUDING PASSES  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
THE WORK WEEK IS ENDING WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD  
BE THE LAST WE SEE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR QUITE AWHILE AS A  
MORE ACTIVE, FALL-LIKE PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE  
AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.  
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS  
EASTERN IDAHO AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD. HI-RES CAMS SHOW  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, BASICALLY ANYWHERE, BUT WITH GREATER LIKELIHOOD ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ALONG THE MONTANA DIVIDE AND INTO PARTS OF  
THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE TETON VALLEY. LOWER CHANCES  
EXIST ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ARE CERTAINLY NOT  
ZERO. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE FOR TOMORROW  
WHERE QPF HAS REALLY DROPPED ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY  
ZONES WHERE THE CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE WIDESPREAD SHOWER  
SIGNAL AND HAVE NOW SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP GENERALLY TO THE  
EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WE'LL HAVE  
TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS ON SUBSEQUENT HI-RES MODEL RUNS LATER  
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION  
TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S TOMORROW WITH 40S AND 50S  
LIKELY BY SUNDAY. WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT SOME POINT  
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO  
SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6500 FT OR SO  
WHERE WE COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME OF  
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP FAR ENOUGH BELOW FREEZING TO CREATE  
SOME POTENTIAL ICY TRAVEL AROUND ISLAND PARK AND UP ON SOME OF THE  
MOUNTAIN PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING AS THE PATTERN  
RELOADS TO OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT SPLIT FLOW/CLOSED LOW SETUP, WE WILL SEE MORE 60S RETURNING  
TO THE FORECAST. THE "DRIEST" DAY IS MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS  
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN QUICKLY RETURNS TO WET AND COOL BY  
THE MIDDLE AND END PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE ASSOCIATED ISSUE OF SNOWFALL, THE COLDER  
END OF OUR BLEND OF MODELS HAS HIGHS BARELY REACH 50 IN OUR TYPICAL  
WARMER SPOTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY  
POSSIBLE GIVEN A POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW IS RIGHT OVER  
EASTERN IDAHO. THE DAYS OF WITH HIGHS OF 70+ LOOKED TO BE NUMBERED  
AT THE MOMENT, AT LEAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, INCLUDING  
SOME NIGHTTIME THUNDER. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR, ALTHOUGH  
A SHOWER OR STORM PRODUCING HEAVIER RAIN COULD EASILY DROP  
THINGS DOWN TO IFR. THERE ARE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT THERE OUTSIDE  
OF ANY STORMS, WITH SOME REPORTS OF 20-35KT WINDS INCLUDING  
GUSTS. STRONGER OVERALL WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, BUT  
STILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SHOWERS  
CONTINUING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WETTING RAINS  
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. MUCH LESS IN CENTRAL  
IDAHO REGIONS. WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND  
70S. WILL TURN MUCH COLDER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5500  
FEET AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE THOSE LEVELS THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OFF AND ON  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL  
MOVE IN SATURDAY WITH SUNDAY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WILL  
SEE SLIGHT WARMING MONDAY BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN  
LONG TERM...KEYES  
AVIATION...KEYES  
FIRE WEATHER...GK  
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