413
FXUS65 KPIH 082001
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
- GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING
- DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF PACNW COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, POISED TO IMPACT EAST IDAHO BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, AND A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE LEADING SURFACE FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG 700MB JET, AND A
NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB SHORTWAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AIRMASS OVER EAST
IDAHO STARTS OUT DRY, THOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY VIRGA WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION, BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HRRR
FORECAST SURFACE GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 45KTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT,
SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAY EXCEED 50 MPH AT TIMES. HOWEVER, MOST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE, AS HREF PROBABILITIES ONLY
SUPPORT A 35-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS STEADILY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND BY SUNRISE. POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
WITH MOST OF EAST IDAHO EXPECTED TO SEE WETTING RAINS OVER 0.10"
BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, AND A GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR
0.25" OR MORE ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS, FRANK CHURCH, AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT, AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INL EAST TO IDAHO FALLS AND
REXBURG, ALONG WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR.
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT SECOND WEAK
FEATURE DRIVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLAND PARK REGION. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE
PLAIN, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL STATES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH MONTANA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY TOO FAR NORTHEAST TO IMPACT THE REGION.
BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND ACCOMPANYING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FEATURE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY, CLOSER TO 50-55 KTS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY LIMIT VISIBILITY. CIGS
WILL ALSO TREND MVFR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
MIN RHS REMAIN LOW TODAY (BELOW 15% FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425
AND 427) WITH OVERALL LIGHTER GUSTS EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM APPROACHING THAT WILL COME THROUGH TOMORROW. EXPECT GUSTS
OF NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN RIDGE
TOPS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ON TUESDAY EXPECT STRONG WINDS GUSTS (35 TO 50 MPH) WITH
INCREASED RHS (MIN RHS OF 25 TO 60S%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH WETTING RAINS
LIKELY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 411.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING
AND WARMING TRENDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR IDZ052-053.
DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...TW
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