071
FXUS65 KPIH 292351
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
551 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
WIND DOWN THIS EVENING
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW MOVING LOW
WILL COME TO END THIS EVENING. SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED DOWN TO
7000FT, IF NOT A BIT LOWER, TODAY. GIVEN THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WE COULD EASILY SMALL
HAIL OR GRAUPEL WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY. AS WE ARE
SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS, WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY AND
ADJACENT BENCH AREAS. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL SUNSET, BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT OF STRETCH GIVEN WE MAY NOT
SEE THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUN AND MIXING TO HIT THAT. THAT SAID,
IT STILL IS BREEZY ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AROUND ISLAND PARK, OTHERWISE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EASTERN HIGHLANDS, AND SOUTH HILLS/ALBION
MOUNTAINS. WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTER ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE/APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EVEN WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO
MOVE IN. IN FACT, WHILE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS...WE MAY NEED TO LOOK AT INCLUDING
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG TO THE FORECAST. ALSO FOR TONIGHT, WE
WILL SEE POCKETS OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR OUR MID AND
HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL
FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, THERE ARE MULTIPLE WEAK "WAVES"
CROSSING THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND DRIER AIR OVERALL IN PLACE, WE ARE EXPECTING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE THAT POTENTIAL POP UP, BUT THE CHANCE IS STILL
GOING TO BE THERE. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S. WE SHOULD SEE A DRY AND WARMER FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND COMING OUR WAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL PUSH LOWER
90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY, AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLAIN INTO NORTHERN UTAH. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TRYING TO BUILD STRONGER RIDGES ACROSS THE WEST
SEVERAL DAYS, WHEN THE PATTERN JUST ISN'T THAT CONDUCIVE AS THE
MAIN STORM TRACK IS OVER US OR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT DIJ. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR IDA WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS ON STATION FOR
DIJ BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR DIJ. WINDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT PIH WHERE THERE ARE STILL
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE FEW TO SCT IN THE MID-
LEVELS FOR PIH AND BYI THIS EVENING AND BKN FOR SUN, IDA, AND
DIJ IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR IDA AND DIJ BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EARLY MORNING BUT ARE NOT THAT LIKELY.
EXPECT VCSH SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KTS, BUT MAINLY FOR IDA AND PIH. THERE IS CLOSE TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR DIJ TOMORROW BUT
HAVE HELD OFF ON A PROB 30 FOR TSTMS FOR DIJ DUE TO COMPUTER
MODEL DIFFERENCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
RHS REMAIN HIGH TODAY WITH UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AGAIN TUESDAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH FIRE WEATHER ZONES 475, 476 AND
THE NORTHERN HALF OF 422 THE PRIMARY AREAS OF FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VALLEY AREAS TODAY
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WILL
BECOME MORE RELAXED AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
ALLOWING RHS TO GET A BIT CLOSER TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE. IT'LL LIKELY WON'T BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN TEMPS
START TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THAT WE SEE CRITICAL RHS. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WED - FRI TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED VIRGA/DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THOSE DAYS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ051>055.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...MCKAUGHAN
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