970
FXUS65 KPIH 051047
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
- INVERSIONS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN EVEN IF BRIEFLY
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
EASTERN IDAHO WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, MAINTAINING DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL TREND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH ONLY OCCASIONALLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD,
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN UNSEASONABLY WARM - ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS - WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
SEASONABLY MILD, THOUGH STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH WE
COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON SW/W BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN FOR THE START OF NEXT, BUT
WE'VE SEEN THIS STORY TIME AND TIME AGAIN THIS WINTER SO FAR.
THE GFS, ECMWF, ENSEMBLES, AND AI VERSIONS OF THOSE MODELS ARE
BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL FIRST
ROUND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FLIP- FLOPPING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MIGHT FALL
WITH THIS EVENT, WITH OUR BLEND OF MODELS LEANING TOWARD THE
WETTER ECMWF AND ITS SET OF MODELS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.50" OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND
SURROUNDING RANGES, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND
ISLAND PARK AND TETONS. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.75
IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT IS MOISTURE WHICH IS SOMETHING WE'VE
BEEN NEEDING AROUND THESE PARTS. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS MOSTLY IF
NOT ALL RAIN BELOW 6000-6500FT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BELOW THAT RANGE, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO SIGN IT ACCUMULATES
OR STICKS AROUND LONG WHERE IT DOES. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
ACTIVE LATER ON IN THE WEEK, BUT AGAIN WE ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT ANY
MAJOR PATTER CHANGE WITHIN ANY LONGER RANGE FORECAST AT THE
MOMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EASTERN IDAHO TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AIR QUALITY
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-ISSUED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE AIR STAGNATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ054-059.
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...KEYES
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
AIR QUALITY...GK
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