804
FXUS65 KPIH 222321
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
521 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM MDT FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
- MOSTLY HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED
RAIN/STORM CHANCES.
- GETTING WINDY FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG LOW-
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES TO BRING RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO EASTERN
IDAHO AND A BIG COOL DOWN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST TODAY AND
WHILE WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WE ARE
BEGINNING TO FEEL ITS IMPACTS ALREADY. HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE MID
80S FOR MOST OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WE'LL GET EVEN WARMER OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS GET BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND RICHFIELD, CAREY, AND
CRATERS OF THE MOON WHICH IS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO
NEAR SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON, SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO
LOW RHS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POPPING UP OFF THE
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY UP NORTH AROUND THE ISLAND PARK AREA,
BUT SOME OF THE CAMS SUGGEST ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH HILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS TOMORROW,
TOO. AND THOSE ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR OUR VALLEYS
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WE DO START TO COOL SLIGHTLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGS
ABOUT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE NEXT "BIG" THING TO WATCH IS THE STRONG
LOW MODELS ARE DROPPING INTO THE PNW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
THEN TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND A
BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW, THE NBM TAKES US FROM LOW TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY TO MID AND UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY. THE NBM IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS STAYING BELOW
70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SAME ON
SUNDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF SUCH A SIGNIFICANT DROP HOLDS IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. AS YOU MIGHT GUESS, THIS WOULD ALSO COME WITH
SOME STRONG WINDS, AT LEAST 30-45 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
WILL HAVE 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS AT PIH, IDA AND BYI THROUGH
02Z THEN WILL DIE DOWN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE MAGIC VALLEY (ZONE 425) REMAINS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE BREEZY
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO, SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SPOTS WHERE WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON A SMALLER SCALE. THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY ARE
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND WARMER CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, AND INCREASING WINDS BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH VIRGA IS TOMORROW MAINLY ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLAIN (410, 413, AND 427).
AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA AND GUSTS OVER 35
MPH. A FEW OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
LATELY IN PRODUCING ANY TYPE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MEANING
WE AREN'T BUYING THAT FOR THE MOMENT. TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH AN UPTICK IN VIRGA/LIGHT RAINFALL.
THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE MONTANA BORDER UP NORTH (411, 475 & 476), AND ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN (413 & 427). THERE IS A LITTLE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY STORMS, EVEN IF DISCOUNTING SOME
OF THE AGGRESSIVE THUNDER FORECASTS. THE TREND CREEPS UP A LITTLE
EACH DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AGAIN WITH ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDERS (411, 413, 422, 475 & 476). THIS ALSO THE AREA FOR ANY
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. WE ALSO CANNOT RULE VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE AT THE MOMENT. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN PRETTY
LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD, INCLUDING POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN (413, 422, AND 427). ANY DAYS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW ON ANY GIVEN DAY FOR ANY HEADLINES,
BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHED.
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY, AND INCREASING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ425.
DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...MCKAUGHAN
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