399
FXUS65 KPIH 301005
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
405 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS, SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY, WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND STARTING THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST MOVING EAST WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUING TO TRACK SW TO NE OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HREF MODEL
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TODAY SHOWS A 20-60% CHANCE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OR LESS ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT,
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH YET AGAIN,
WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.
FOR THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AROUND 1-6 DEGREE
REGIONWIDE AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
DROPPING TO LOW 80S TO LOW 90S IN ADDITION TO HELPING KICK OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED REGIONWIDE WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EASTERN HIGHLANDS,
AND SOUTH HILLS. STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FAVORED THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025
DAILY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PEAKING
IN COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST FROM
THE PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE
ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY FURTHER NORTH.
HIGHS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A WARMING TREND RETURNING STARTING
WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME KEEPS
THE BULK OF MORE ORGANIZED TROUGHS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ONLY
ALLOWS FOR WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER EASTERN IDAHO,
WHICH KEEPS CONDITIONS DRIER IN THE LATEST FORECAST FOR EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THESE TROUGHS TRACK A BIT FURTHER EAST,
WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT THE
NBM IS LEANING MORE AND MORE TOWARDS THAT DRIER SOLUTION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUN, IDA, AND DIJ THIS
AFTERNOON. DIJ LOOKS MOST LIKELY AND IF THE NEWEST GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT MOST LIKELY WOULD SIDESTEP IDA AND SUN. WITH THAT SAID, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION 30% PROBABILITY AT ALL SITES HIGHLIGHT GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL WHICH COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE
STORM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2025
DAILY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO EASTERN IDAHO. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PEAK EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
WITH VERY ISOLATED CHANCES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 411, 422, 475, AND 476,
WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN ZONES 410, 413, 425, AND 427.
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED EACH DAY
TO HIGHLIGHT (IF NEEDED) THE BEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES THAT ARE APPROACHING CRITICAL
(411/475/476) OR ARE ALREADY CRITICAL (422). STRONGER STORMS
EACH DAY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SEE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND STARTING THURSDAY, AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE
70S AND 80S LATER IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RHS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS (TEENS/20S FURTHER NORTH), AHEAD OF A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
REGIONWIDE LATER IN THE WEEK GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL ALLOW RHS RETURNING MOSTLY TO THE TEENS/20S WITH
POCKETS IN THE 30S. WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEK, WITH GUSTS PEAKING
GENERALLY AROUND 15-30 MPH. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-30 MPH, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS CATEGORY. HOWEVER, ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...MACKAY
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page