027
FXUS65 KPIH 311737
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1137 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAWTOOTH
AND NORTHERN WOOD RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY FOR 3-6"
OF SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET AND 6-12" ABOVE 7000 FEET.
- WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, PEAKING
ON TUESDAY BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT.
- A SECONDARY, WEAKER PACIFIC SYSTEM BUILDING IN MIDWEEK WILL
KEEP RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO LEADING TO AN ONGOING MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
WILL CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUILDING IN OUT OF THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG THIS FRONT IS WHERE WE
ARE EXPECTING MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. TODAY'S STORM
ENVIRONMENT BASED ON THE LATEST 06Z HRRR AND NAM MODELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS AROUND 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-50 KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR.
THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO SEEING THE ABOVE SCENARIO PAN OUT
WILL CENTER AROUND CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO WARM
UP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD WE REALIZE
THAT HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 06Z HRRR AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE, WE SHOULD SEE ORGANIZED
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHOULD INSTEAD WE SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NOT REALIZE THE WARMING AND
INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE HINDERED MORE.
THE FIRST SOLUTION IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE LATEST HREF MODEL
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTS OUR ENTIRE CWA AT
AROUND A 30-70% CHANCE. TO REFLECT THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IN OUR LATEST FORECAST, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GOING ABOVE WHAT THE NBM HAS WHICH DID
NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY.
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
IN NATURE AS BEST CHANCES SHIFT INTO TWO CORRIDORS, ONE ALONG
THE MONTANA DIVIDE AND ANOTHER IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AS SHOWERS CONDITIONS TREND
PREDOMINANTLY DRY ELSEWHERE. WITH A SUFFICIENTLY COOL AND MILDLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A MIX OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION/SWE TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING 0.20-0.50" ACROSS OUR
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 0.30-1.00" IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TRANSLATED TO SNOW, WE ARE LOOKING AT AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT
T-4" IN THE VALLEYS AND 4-12" IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED AROUND THE SAWTOOTH/NORTHERN WOOD RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND EAST OF I-15 INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS WHERE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE ISSUED YESTERDAY REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FOR AROUND 3- 6" OF SNOW
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 6-12" IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE END TIME
OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED
UPON FUTURE FORECASTS. ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND LOWER
ELEVATION VALLEYS, SNOW TOTALS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER IN THAT
T-1" RANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 40S/50S WILL DROP TO THE 30S/40S
FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY (NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS) WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S. SYNOPTIC WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY BOTH DAYS WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 25-45 MPH, STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE
AT THIS TIME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EVALUATED ON FUTURE SHIFTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
LARGE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY HEAVY SNOWS BUT
WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
TROUGH, WE COULD SEE A DAY WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS. MAINLY LOOKING
AT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE VALLEYS WITH ALL SNOW ABOVE 5000
FEET DURING THIS TIME. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS (ABOUT 75%) HAVE THE
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT KPIH AND KIDA THIS MORNING AND THESE STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD, AND POTENTIALLY
CONVECTIVE, AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HAVE ADDED SOME TEMPOS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE PRONOUNCED
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY WINDS
(30-40KTS) WITH IT. STILL SEEING SOME LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SO DON'T HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE. IT APPEARS THAT MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE A BIT OF A
PRECIP BREAK AFTER 02-04Z THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN AREA OF
FOCUS CLOSER TO KDIJ AS SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. SOME OF THIS COULD SNEAK INTO KIDA AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOWER. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR LOW-END VFR TO PREVAIL BUT SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. KDIJ COULD SEE MORE
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING MOSTLY SNOW KEEPING VSBYS
LOWER.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR IDZ060-063-
064-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ071>074.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
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