231
FXUS65 KPIH 160703
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
103 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRONTAL PROGRESSION: A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION THIS MORNING, MAINTAINING ELEVATED WINDS AND SHIFTING
PRECIPITATION INTO A SHOWERY PHASE BY MIDDAY.
- WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND PARK AREA AND BEAR RIVER RANGE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE HEADLINES FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ARE SLATED TO EXPIRE LATER TODAY.
- CONVERGENCE BAND POTENTIAL: HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE BAND TODAY, WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO VALLEY FLOORS BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.
- FREEZE WARNINGS: WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID-20S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TO PROTECT VULNERABLE EARLY-
SEASON VEGETATION.
- SUBSTANTIAL WEEKEND WARM-UP: RAPIDLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN A DRY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND MID-70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO, CHARACTERIZED BY BREEZY SYNOPTIC WINDS AND BROKEN BANDS
OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES, THE STEADY OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING, WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
IN MANY AREAS AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ISLAND PARK REGION
AND THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, WHERE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT.
ONE AREA OF LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CONVERGENCE BAND SIGNATURE APPEARING ON HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS.
IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS, IT COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
LOWER VALLEY FLOORS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, THOUGH GENERALLY STAYING BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
QUITE CHILLY, RANGING FROM THE 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO THE
40S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
ONCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE IMPENDING COLD. WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY, WHERE A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-20S. WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT, A HARD FREEZE REMAINS LIKELY
NEARLY EVERYWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK
TO EARLY-SEASON CROPS AND BLOSSOMS THAT HAVE ALREADY EMERGED
FOLLOWING A VERY MILD WINTER.
RELIEF ARRIVES QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ENDING
ALL PRECIPITATION AND INITIATING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
SOARING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL STRUGGLES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES UNTIL
LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH THAT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A
BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES THE GRADIENT WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AM BEGINNING TO SEE INDICATIONS OF A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS WHICH WE INCLUDED AT
SUN SINCE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ051>055.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR IDZ051>055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR IDZ060-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR IDZ071>074.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...13
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