691
FXUS65 KPIH 150832
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
232 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL FRONTAL PASSAGE: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO PLUMMET TO VALLEY
FLOORS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THE ISLAND PARK AREA, AND
THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED.
- WIND ADVISORY TODAY: STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ARCO DESERT AND
LEMHI HIGHLANDS.
- HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL: A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY, SNAKE PLAIN, ARCO DESERT AND SHOSHONE ZONES FOR
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY.
- STRONG WARMING TREND: FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK COLD SNAP, A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO
AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY CAPTURES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING WINDS TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT AND LEMHI HIGHLANDS.
ELSEWHERE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
HOLDING IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY MANIFEST AS RAIN BELOW 6,500 FEET, WHILE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEGINS TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A POTENT COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO. THIS TRANSITION WILL TRIGGER A DRASTIC DROP IN SNOW
LEVELS, BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW EVEN FOR THE
LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS. PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT IN
RECENT MODEL DATA IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF FORECAST
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MEANWHILE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS, WHERE
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO
A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GROWING REGIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRIGID
AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL FOR ANY EARLY-SEASON BLOSSOMS OR CROPS
THAT HAVE EMERGED DURING RECENT WARM SPELLS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A DRASTIC
WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. WHILE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY, LEAVING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WORSENING QUICKLY TOMORROW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING IN THE MORNING. SUN WILL LIKELY SEE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR A TIME TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT WINDY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR IDZ051>055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ052-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
FRIDAY FOR IDZ060-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR IDZ071>074.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...13
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