200
FXUS65 KPIH 141117
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
517 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED
FOR EAST IDAHO SATURDAY.
- A COMBINATION OF WIND ADVISORY, HIGH WIND WARNING, AND BLOWING
DUST WARNING HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY.
- A MAJOR WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM, WITH POTENTIAL
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HASN'T REALLY CHANGED. THE
STORY WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO STARTING LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS OF 65 MPH OR HIGHER ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN/MAGIC VALLEY
AND ADJACENT BENCH AREAS, HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTH HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, AND THE BEAR RIVER
RANGE. THERE IS A 20-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 75 MPH ACROSS
HIGHER RIDGELINES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTH
HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, AND BEAR RIVER RANGE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER. BLOWING DUST WILL BE A HUGE ISSUE
JUST AS WE SAW ON THURSDAY. STATING THE OBVIOUS, WE WILL KEEP
THE HIGH WIND WARNING, WIND ADVISORY, AND BLOWING DUST WARNING
IN PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE
FOCUS FOR EMBEDDED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND
SURROUNDING RANGES, AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT SOME POINT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WITH THE FRONT. TOTALS IN MOST AREAS MAY
AMOUNT TO NOTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.20" FOR ADDITIONAL
NUMBERS. FOR THE BIG HOLES AND ALONG THE BORDER WITH YELLOWSTONE
AND TETONS, LOOK FOR 0.20-0.50". LOOK FOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SMOKYS, SAWTOOTHS, AND THE SALMON RIVER MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES
HEADING TOWARD THE BOISE SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IN MOST AREAS COULD BE 1-3" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST OF GALENA SUMMIT.
WINDS EASE UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS, BRINGING AN END TO THE WIND MACHINE FOR EAST IDAHO FOR
THE TIME BEING. THIS USHERS IN THE BEGINNING OF AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND DRY PERIOD FOR EAST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK, TRENDING TOWARD RECORD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS MONDAY BEFORE WE DRY OUT WITH
THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AROUND TODAY BEFORE THE WIND MACHINE
KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. FOR BYI, PIH, AND IDA: WE ARE CARRYING
VCSH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE OR AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THAT HAPPENS, HOLD ON. WE HAVE BETWEEN
50KT-60KTS FOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND
LOWERING VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. FOR SUN: THERE WILL BE
A WINDOW FOR SOME SHOWERS MID MORNING TO RIGHT AROUND
LUNCHTIME, THEN WE WILL SEE STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE GUSTS OF 30-40KTS FOR A CROSSWIND FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MID EVENING, WINDS WILL DO THE NORMAL SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. FOR DIJ: WE EXPECT TWO
WINDOWS VCSH OR -SHRA, ONE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THE OTHER WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND DROPPING SOUTH EAST OF
I-15. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS BAND DEVELOPS FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND DROPS SOUTH TO IMPACT IDA AND PIH IN ANY FORM.
BACK TO DIJ, LOOK FOR GUSTS PEAKING AT 35-45KTS UNTIL THIS
EVENING. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS WITH ANY
SHOWERS. WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IDA. WE HAVE MVFR TO IFR DUE TO THIS ISSUE,
WHICH ALSO INCLUDES PIH AND BYI.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ051>058-062>065-068.
BLOWING DUST WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ053.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ059>061-066-067-069>075.
DISCUSSION...DMH/KEYES
AVIATION...KEYES
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