963
FXUS65 KPIH 061723
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1123 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TODAY
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE WEEKEND
- COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY, WITH
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS, AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
TODAY CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER, THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH, AND IT MAY END UP FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT OUR FORECAST FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE IS A STRETCH.
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RAIN, AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 35
MPH. OTHERWISE, IT REMAINS DRY AND WARM UNTIL THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY, PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL WE GET TO FRIDAY. THIS WILL STILL PULL IN
THE DRY AIR, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT LOWER. THAT
STILL MEANS HIGHS WILL RUN 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS FOR
THE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH
SOME MID 80S SPRINKLED IN HERE AND THERE. WINDS AREN'T GOING TO
STRONG UNTIL WE GET TO FRIDAY AT THE MOMENT. AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THAT POINT, THAT IS WE
WILL SEE WINDS STARTING TO RAMP UP.
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER IDAHO AND MUCH OF THE WEST DRASTICALLY
CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, INCLUDING
THEIR ENSEMBLE AND AI VERSIONS OF EACH MODEL, SHOW LOW PRESSURE
CLOSING OFF OR IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY RAMP UP ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
VERSIONS OF THE FORECAST HAVE THE LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...BUT
STILL MUCH, MUCH COOLER. OUR BLEND OF MODELS HAS HIGHS IN THE
50S/LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEYS SUNDAY. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE,
ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THINGS. IF WE MAXIMIZE
CLOUD COVER AND THE LOW SHIFTS MORE OVERHEAD, WHICH IS ALSO
SHOWN AS A SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY, HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF
THE 40S DOWN LOW AND 20S AND 30S UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A 20-50% CHANCE FOR SNOW IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE THE TREND IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS TO SWING THE LOW A BIT
MORE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, THEN ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH TUESDAY. THE
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY RELATED TO ECMWF, ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW AT LEAST FALLING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE CERTAINLY NOT A
GUARANTEE BY ANY STRETCH, IT IS SOMETHING TO UNDERSTAND COULD
HAPPEN. THE KNOWNS ARE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER AND WE SHOULD SOME
DECENT PRECIPITATION FALLING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. WILL HAVE
THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS AT SUN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON
WINDS AT THE OTHER SITES APPROACHING 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH A STORM OR TWO THROWN IN
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TODAY, LOOK FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE WON'T SEE THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING
REALLY AND FLOW REMAINING MORE ZONAL, WHICH MEANS WE WILL BE
JUST A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES,
INCLUDING MODERATE TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IN SOME AREAS.
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO. THIS COULD CREATE ISSUES WHERE WE STILL HAVE
DRIER FUELS. A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL FORECASTS POINT TO A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DROP INTO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST. AT THE MOMENT, THIS WOULDN'T
QUALIFY AS A SEASON ENDER, BUT PERHAPS A DECENT SEASON
SLOWER. THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT, BUT IF THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE FORECASTS PAN OUT...WE MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S IN THE VALLEYS. THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1" OF SNOW IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THEY ALSO SHOW A VERY
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN
AT LEAST SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KEYES
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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