292
FXUS65 KPIH 201926
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
126 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY: ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LATE WEEK: AN UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST OVERHEAD WILL BRING ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT, WITH THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
WINDOW LASTING FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CALL FOR AROUND
1.0 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, 0.50 INCH IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY, 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH NEAR SUN VALLEY WITH UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT, AND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS.
- SHARP FRIDAY COOLDOWN: DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MODERATING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION REMAINS POSITIONED BENEATH A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HIGH-RESOLUTION
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END
PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN LOWER-ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE DRIVER FOR OUR NEXT MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, EVENTUALLY
TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCOMING LOW
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A SHARP AIRMASS
TRANSITION TO EASTERN IDAHO.
THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RUNS
FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. QPF GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RUNS:
EXPECT AROUND 1.0 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, 0.50 INCH
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY, 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH AROUND SUN VALLEY DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, AND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THESE FORECAST AMOUNTS COULD STILL
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECASTS. THIS SETUP WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FRIDAY DAYTIME HIGHS
STRICTLY TO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY
HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOLDING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
50S. A SLOW MODERATING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES, KEEPING CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OBSERVED EARLY THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE INTO
IDAHO AND WENT WITH VICINITY SHOWERS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THE TAF SITES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANY
ONE SITE WILL SEE RAIN BUT MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH DIURNAL SHIFT
AT SUN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...13
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