390
FXUS65 KPIH 070805
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
105 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE DIVIDE
- RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE TO OUR
NORTHWEST. A SLIM BUT NON ZERO CHANCE FOR AN ISOALTED FLURRY OR
SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE NEAR THE DIVIDE AND
ISLAND PARK, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME HI-RES CAMS, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD BE UNIMPACTFUL. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION REMAIN ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A MORE
NOTABLE SHIFT ARRIVES SUNDAY AS MID AND HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
THICKEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERSPREADING THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. MORE SPECIFICS ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE ECMWF AND THAT GROUP OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IS 6-12 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ITS CAMP SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND
SURROUNDING RANGES. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING EAST EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION (OTHER THAN LINGERING SHOWERS) WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-15. WE ARE SEEING SOME DECENT VARIABILITY IN RAIN AND
SNOW AMOUNTS WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS (INCLUDING AI VERSIONS)
AND THE ENSEMBLES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE COULD SEE A DECENT
BURST OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING
RANGES SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS MAY BE THE MODELS GETTING A LITTLE
"CONVECTIVE HAPPY"...IN OTHER WORDS SOMETIMES WE SEE ANYTHING
RESEMBLING HEAVIER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM BEING OVERBLOWN.
THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE, AS THAT COULD A TROUBLE SPOT
MONDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY HEADING OVER GALENA AND
BANNER SUMMITS. WE MAY NEED TO WATCH TARGHEE AND RAYNOLDS PASSES
MONDAY AS WELL FOR SOMETHING SIMILAR. SNOW LEVELS PEAK SUNDAY
NIGHT AT 6500-7500FT, FALLING THOROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THEY
EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWEST VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE AT THAT POINT. FOR
ANYONE WANTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE
DISAPPOINTED ONCE AGAIN. IT WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY, SO THEY
COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS UP HIGH. FOR THAT 48 HOUR
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION FALLS IN THE SAWTOOTHS/SURROUNDING RANGES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AT THE MOMENT, IT
LOOKS LIKE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS DOWN LOW AND MAYBE UP TO 0.20"
FOR HIGHER RANGES LIKE THE LITTLE LOST AND BEAR RIVER. FOR THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS SPECIFICALLY, THE LATEST TRENDS PUT 0.20-0.60"
OF MOISTURE DOWN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ADJACENT TO
YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS. LOOKING AT PROBABILITY FORECASTS
FROM THE BLEND OF MODELS, THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF MORE THAN
0.60" ABOVE PASS LEVEL, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1"
SOUTH OF WEST YELLOWSTONE. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING RANGES. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SAWTOOTHS AND WEST TOWARD
LOWMAN. THERE IS ALSO A 30-60% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.60"
INCLUDING BANNER SUMMIT, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1".
FOR NOW, NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED BUT WE MAY NEED TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT, DO LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THE BLEND HAS IT HANDLED FAIRLY WELL, AS EVERY MODEL AND
EVERY RUN OF THOSE MODELS HAS SOMETHING DIFFERENT...ALTHOUGH WE
MAY AGAIN END UP WITH AN OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURE DO COOL BACK DOWN WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE, BUT IT APPEARS WE ARE STILL SITTING AT OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS AN EXTREMELY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AT DIJ
SATURDAY MORNING, LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE AND KEPT OUT OF
THE TAF. HAVE VICINITY AT DIJ THROUGH 18Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
AIR QUALITY CONTINUES TO BE DEGRADED AND WILL LIKELY LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN AND WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION INCREASING SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAKE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE
STAGNANT AIR IN PLACE. THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE MOMENT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ054-059.
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...KEYES
AVIATION...GK
AIR QUALITY...GK
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