088
FXUS66 KOTX 062331
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
431 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEATRISK TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES (10-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 90S TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE HEATRISK. THERE WILL BE PASSING
CLOUDS WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS A WEAK
MIDLEVEL WAVE SPINNING OVER EASTERN OREGON WHICH IS SPREADING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHWARD TOWARD FAR SOUTHEASTERN WA
AND THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE. HRRR INDICATES SPOTTY SHOWERS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH IS CONFIRMED ON UPSTREAM CAMS. THIS
MOISTURE IS ENCOUNTERING A VERY AIR MASS NOTED ON THE SPOKANE
18Z BALLOON LAUNCH SO WOULDN'T EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL OUTSIDE A
TRACE OR 0.01" AT BEST.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM ACROSS THE INLAND NW WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY. GENERALLY LIGHT BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S, HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15% OR LOWER,
AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FROM MOSES LAKE NORTHWARD INTO THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES
BETWEEN CHELAN AND WENATCHEE WILL A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE
INCREASED WINDS LATER IN THE DAY (APPROX 4PM-5PM) AS THE
WESTERLY GAPS WINDS SET IN. RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS ZONE WERE
DELAYED INTO THE LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWING INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW AND COOL AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
ACROSS CENTRAL WA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE FURTHER ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE EXPANSION OF GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE PALOUSE, SPOKANE AREA,
NORTH IDAHO, AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEASTERN WA. RED FLAG WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THESE ZONES WHERE FUELS
HAVE BEEN DECLARED DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER OF THE TWO DAYS AND
MORE WIDESPREAD VS TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT BE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG WIND EVENT BUT STILL PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS 25-30 MPH. RESIDENTS OF THE INLAND NW ARE URGED TO BE
FIRE SAFE AROUND DRY FUEL BEDS.
MOISTURE FROM OREGON WILL BE PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING PASSING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HREF DOES INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO FAR NE OREGON TUESDAY EVENING WHICH TEND TO DISSIPATE WHILE
CROSSING INTO ASOTIN COUNTY AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE. TUESDAY
NIGHT, HREF REINTRODUCES A 10-20% CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WA
AND NORTH IDAHO. NAM WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES INDICATE 300-500 J/KG CAPE BETWEEN 700-500MB SO
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS EFFICIENT LIFT.
THIS COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS INDICATING THE
GREATEST DIVQ OVER SOUTHERN BC AND ONLY A WEAKER TRAILING FRONT
PROVIDING THIS LIFT. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY ADVERTISES SPRINKLES
BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IF THIS
TREND AND PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO RISE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 50-70% OF
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO DESPITE SOME COOLING,
THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR DRYNESS LEVELS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES OF
THE CASCADES. A DEEP MARINE LAYER BANKED ALONG THE CREST WILL
SPILL OVER AND MANY HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN 25-35% FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LEAVENWORTH AND STEHEKIN. THESE
AREAS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS
REASON WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON
THE METHOW VALLEY WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE WEDNESDAY RED FLAG
WARNING.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY
UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN A FEW MILE PER HOUR
FROM WEDNESDAY BUT STILL DELIVERING WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE EVENING PUSH OF WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SPEEDS APPROACHING 15-20 MPH WITH STRONGER
GUSTS. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE INLAND NW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE PACNW ON SATURDAY
DELIVERING ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY WINDS. UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH
THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND IF IT HAS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
AND DEFLECTED TO THE NORTHWEST INTO BC OR PRESSES DEEPER INTO
THE REGION. THIS LATER SOLUTION WOULD DELIVER A STRONGER WIND
SOLUTION VS A GLANCING BLOW. NBM HAS 40-60% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR STRONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WA
SATURDAY AND 10-20% CHANCE FOR AREAS OF EASTERN WA. THIS IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: ROUGHLY 40% OF THE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN SOME
DEGREE OF TROUGHING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF NW WA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WHILE 60% INDICATE HEIGHT RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE HOW NEXT WEEK WILL EVOLVE. WE DO
ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND BUT WHETHER THE INLAND NW ENTERS A
PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR CLOSER TO SEASONAL
READINGS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK FOR JULY
14-19TH HAS A 20-40% CHANCE (SLIGHT RISK) FOR EXTREME HEAT INTO
THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN WA. /SB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL
LEAD TO HAZY SKIES AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WA
THOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 6SM. SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PUW AND LWS IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
NORTHWARD. MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT
OF PUW AND LWS, BUT VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW EVENING IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES.
TERRAIN INFLUENCE WILL DELAY THE PUSH OF THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AT KEAT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLIER
FARTHER EAST WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS AT KMWH, KGEG,
KSFF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SMOKE FROM LOCAL WILDFIRES LOWERING VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS AT
TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 55 94 61 86 55 83 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 58 92 61 85 55 82 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
PULLMAN 52 90 56 81 51 80 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 60 98 64 90 59 89 / 10 0 20 0 0 0
COLVILLE 52 93 57 88 52 85 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 56 91 60 85 55 82 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
KELLOGG 57 90 59 82 54 79 / 20 0 10 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 57 97 59 89 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 95 65 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 96 62 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -
PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE
709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR OKANOGAN
VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR FOOTHILLS
OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705).
ID...NONE.
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