071
FXUS66 KOTX 210000
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
500 PM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 BY TUESDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
BREEZY WINDS
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR MAJOR HEATRISK TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME MAY BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH BREEZY WINDS MAY CAUSE AN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH HAZY SKIES AND AREAS OF
SMOKE. AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
TONIGHT WILL HELP BRING A NORTH WIND SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS NOT A STRONG PUSH, BUT
ENOUGH IN WHICH THE SMOKE MODELS SHOW SMOKE FROM THE KAISER CANYON
AND MODRITE FIRES PUSHING SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE AREA. THEN AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS GO
LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON, THE SMOKE AND HAZE STALLS IN THESE SAME
AREAS WITH AFTERNOON MIXING POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SMOKE AND HAZE TO THE SPOKANE AREA. ELSEWHERE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NEAR WILDFIRES. THEN MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MAY ACT TO SEND SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES
INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EASTERN WA/N
IDAHO BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMING EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100F.
BUT THERE ARE A FEW WILD CARDS INCLUDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET DRAW UP, AS WELL AS WILDFIRE
SMOKE BEING SENT NORTHWARD FROM OREGON THAT COULD SHAVE OFF A FEW
DEGREES. AT MINIMUM, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED WITH
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW OFF THE COAST SWINGS ACROSS THE INLAND NW. MOISTURE, LIFT,
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 150-170% OF NORMAL, SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
STORMS, BUT THE ELEVATED NATURE OF FAST MOVEMENT WILL MAKE NEW
FIRE STARTS A CONCERN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN WITH
STORMS. THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
ABOUT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING, BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED. AND FOLLOWING THE LIGHTNING, THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE OFFSHORE LOW EJECTS INLAND AS AN OPEN WAVE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT DRIER, BREEZY, AND MORE
STABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING CARRIES GREATER
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHICH DAY. AS IT DOES COME IN, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS. ALL IN ALL, THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHTNING FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND. JW
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD INTO TUESDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES,
THOUGH THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR CATEGORICAL IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES WILL BE WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN ANY WILDFIRE SMOKE. SURFACE
OBS SUGGEST SMOKE IS PRODUCING VSBYS IN THE 4-9SM RANGE AT MOST
OF AFFECTED SITES. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT CONDITIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:LOW CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS TO SURFACE VISIBILITIES FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE
TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 90 64 95 64 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 91 66 95 66 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 88 57 92 59 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 94 67 100 69 102 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 92 59 96 59 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 88 61 92 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 88 62 92 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 94 64 99 66 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 92 71 99 74 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 94 68 99 70 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
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