607
FXUS66 KOTX 271722
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1022 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HYDROLOGY: THE STEHEKIN RIVER AT STEHEKIN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE ITS ACTION STAGE (19.5 FT) FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
OTHER AREA RIVERS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND BEGIN TO RECEDE
SLOWLY THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY INTO THE SATURDAY, WITH A DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 150-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. YET WEAK DYNAMICS
AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE TO START MAY RESULT IN SOME TIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE CASCADE CREST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE
WHERE THE ASSISTANCE OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN THE HIGHEST CHANCES. SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
INLAND NW. ON MONDAY HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKS WILL
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF POST-FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
CASCADES, NE WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS, AND ID PANHANDLE. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE QUICK HITTER OF THIS FRONT, AND DRIER AIR ALOFT COMING IN
BEHIND IT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PLUMMETING TO 30-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE. THE
NBM CHANCES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS 50% FOR STEVENS PASS AND 30%
FOR LOOKOUT PASS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, THE ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY SENDING A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INLAND NW, FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
VALLEY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY WINDS. A
SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT WILL EVEN GIVEN THE
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND NE WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS SOME SNOW, WITH A
PERIOD OF WINTER TRAVEL LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE
NBM 48 HOUR CHANCES OF 4 INCHES OR MORE IS 70% SHERMAN PASS, 65%
STEVENS PASS, AND 50% FOR LOOKOUT PASS. NBM ALSO HAS A 30% CHANCE
OF THE 48 HOUR TOTALS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES AT STEVENS AND SHERMAN
PASSES. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z, THEN SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
00-18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 38 58 37 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 30 50 10
COEUR D'ALENE 38 57 37 49 34 48 / 0 0 0 40 70 30
PULLMAN 39 55 38 52 34 45 / 0 0 0 40 60 30
LEWISTON 41 61 42 58 40 51 / 0 0 0 20 50 30
COLVILLE 36 60 35 53 31 50 / 0 10 0 40 50 10
SANDPOINT 35 54 37 47 34 47 / 0 0 0 60 80 40
KELLOGG 40 55 38 48 35 43 / 0 0 0 60 80 50
MOSES LAKE 38 64 37 58 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 40 61 38 55 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
OMAK 36 61 37 57 33 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page