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FXUS66 KOTX 111905
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1105 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
UPDATE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISOR FOR THE MOSES LAKE AREA AND UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THROUGH 2PM TODAY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL RESULTING IN FOG LIFTING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN (PARTICULARLY AROUND MOSES
LAKE TO RITZVILLE AND ADJACENT AREAS) SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CHANGES TO VISIBILITY, SLOW SPEEDS, TURN ON
HEADLIGHTS, AND ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE WITH OTHER VEHICLES ON
ROADWAYS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY. /SVH
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- BREEZY AND WET THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SYNOPSIS
DRY, MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WET
AND WINDY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SNOW ON THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE INLAND NW SITS IN A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
A WEAK RIGID BUILDING IN ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH. THE FRONT THAT
PASSED YESTERDAY DROPPED AROUND 0.01 TO 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN AND
MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER, LEADING TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ACROSS FROM THE DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN EAST TOWARD THE
SPOKANE/CDA AREA, PALOUSE AND NORTHEAST ZONES. THOSE CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG PERSISTS THROUGH ABOUT 10-11 AM
PST. HOWEVER THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER,
GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE SPOKANE/CDA AREA
AND NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY NOT SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON (3-4 PM) IF ALL. ELSEWHERE, TOWARD THE CASCADES AND
LEE-SIDE ZONES, THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP THINGS PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CREST WHERE
MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, EXCEPT
FOR LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND THE ID/MT
BORDER. HOWEVER THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE A REAL MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS, BUT SOME OF THE AREAS UNDER
THE MORE PERSISTENT STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS MAY BE HELD BENEATH WHAT
THE GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY: LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MIGRATING ACROSS
THE GULF OF AK WILL BE DIGGING OFF THE COAST AND APPROACHING
THE COASTLINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE,
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS IN TONIGHT,
BRINGING WITH IT SOME PASSING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
PRIMARY CHANCES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PRIMARY
FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD THE CASCADES AND CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
4.5-8KFT THIS EVENING, LOWEST NEAR CASCADES AND NORTHERN ZONES,
AND THEY WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVELS
EXCEPT WASHINGTON PASS AND SHERMAN PASS, BUT ANY SNOW THAT MIGHT
FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN 1 INCH
LESS THAN 10%. OUTSIDE THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE DEEPER LOST PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND DEEP, TAPPED INTO A MODEST PWAT FETCH OF 175-200% OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY, BEFORE CHANCES START TO WANE IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR STARTS IN. BY FRIDAY
THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL RETREATS TO THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH SMALLER CHANCES LINGERING AROUND THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA
AND LOWER IDAHO VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS AVERAGE NEAR 6-8KFT
THURSDAY, BUT START TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO THEY LAY BETWEEN 3.5 TO 4.5KFT. THIS WILL
BRING BACK SOME SNOW TO THE PASSES, FIRST THE CASCADES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE IDAHO PANHANDLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
SOME MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
FOR STEVENS AND WASHINGTON PASSES MODELS SUGGEST 4 TO 8 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOWER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ID
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
FORECAST FOR SHERMAN AND LOOKOUT PASSES. LOWLANDS WILL SEE
MOSTLY RAIN AND COULD PICK UP AROUND 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES OF
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN WILL DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WITH THIS SYSTEM, INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 15-25 MPH ARE IN THE FORECAST, LOCALLY
NEAR 30 MPH OR SO NEAR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING IN THE AREA. SOME SHOWER CHANCES LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL COMING TOGETHER ON DETAILS.
THOUGH RIGHT NOW THE MOUNTAIN ZONES LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WETTING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS
AVERAGE AROUND 4-6KFT SATURDAY, THEN START TO DROP TO BETWEEN
2.5-3.5KFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THERE IS EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MIXING DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS OVER EASTERN CWA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY AM. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE LOWLAND IS GENERALLY 10% OR LESS RIGHT
NOW, BUT MODELS DO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IN ACTUALITY THE NUMBERS ARE COOLING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. ADDITIONAL BREEZINESS WILL COME WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
EARLY FORECAST NUMBERS SHOWING ABOUT 10-20 MPH GUSTS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A MODEST LOW LEVEL INVERSION UNDER ARIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ERODING
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING FOR
KEAT/KEPH/KMWH/KLWS/KDEW/KGEG/KSFF. THE SPOKANE CORRIDOR WILL
SEE IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SLOWER
TO OCCUR IN THE MORE SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS AND AROUND
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS STRONGER AND
MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21-00Z FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS TO MIX OUT. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TONIGHT. THERE
IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM KEAT/KMWH/KEPH TO
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TIMING OF WHEN LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT TODAY INCLUDING AT
KEAT/KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KLWS. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT AND BREAK UP THAN WHAT MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS (MVFR TO VFR) THIS
EVENING AS AN INCOMING WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER MIXING. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 48 37 53 39 56 39 / 0 30 30 0 70 80
COEUR D'ALENE 50 38 54 41 57 41 / 10 50 40 10 70 90
PULLMAN 55 42 59 44 59 40 / 0 10 10 0 60 80
LEWISTON 59 46 64 47 65 46 / 0 10 0 0 30 70
COLVILLE 46 29 48 32 50 34 / 0 30 70 20 90 90
SANDPOINT 47 34 50 37 52 39 / 20 60 80 20 80 100
KELLOGG 51 41 59 47 59 42 / 10 50 40 10 70 100
MOSES LAKE 50 37 54 39 55 38 / 0 10 10 10 70 40
WENATCHEE 51 40 50 42 52 39 / 0 20 20 30 80 60
OMAK 49 36 48 37 51 38 / 0 10 30 20 80 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOSES
LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COEUR
D'ALENE AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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