579
FXUS66 KOTX 210554
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
954 PM PST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WET WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG WARM FRONT
CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO RISE ABOVE MOST MOUNTAIN PASSES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
EVENING UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND IN NORTH IDAHO. A PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL TEND TO ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THESE
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS ARE ALSO A
BIT WETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED ALONG WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERED DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AND KEEP TRAVEL SLICK
WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PLACES LIKE
COLVILLE TO IONE TO SANDPOINT AND BONNERS FERRY WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 6
INCHES IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 5AM THURSDAY, AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS EXTENDED OUT THROUGH
10 AM ON THURSDAY. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS WET
SNOW AT AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAT INCLUDES
COLVILLE (CQV), SANDPOINT (SZT), AND BONNERS FERRY (65S). AROUND
DEER PARK (DEW) TO ACROSS THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. RAIN WITHOUT
GOOD UPSLOPE WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FOG
FROM FORMING, BUT LOW STRATUS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.
RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AROUND KOMK-KEAT-KEPH-KMWH AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO RESULT IN CLOUDS LOWERING
AND MIST OR FOG PRESENT WITH LOW IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE RAIN OUT INTO THE BASIN AND WILL SEE FOG LIFTING MORE
INTO LOW STRATUS DECK AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ASIDE FROM AT
THE LEWISTON AIRPORT (LWS) WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE AREA TO REMAIN UNDER A STRATUS DECK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. THIS WILL ALSO COME WITH
RAIN OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING HEIGHTS OR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN HALF A MILE BELOW 20%
AROUND KEAT AND KMWH. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 44 37 48 37 43 / 90 60 60 100 80 30
COEUR D'ALENE 34 44 37 48 36 42 / 100 70 70 100 90 50
PULLMAN 36 45 39 49 35 42 / 70 70 80 90 90 50
LEWISTON 41 51 44 55 39 48 / 40 40 70 80 80 40
COLVILLE 29 40 32 42 32 41 / 90 70 60 100 80 40
SANDPOINT 30 39 35 42 35 39 / 100 100 80 100 90 70
KELLOGG 37 43 40 46 36 39 / 100 90 80 100 100 80
MOSES LAKE 35 46 38 49 35 44 / 70 50 70 90 40 10
WENATCHEE 35 38 36 42 32 42 / 40 50 70 90 20 10
OMAK 32 38 34 41 33 43 / 70 50 60 90 50 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PST THURSDAY FOR OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS.
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