606
FXUS66 KOTX 111049
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
349 AM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RESULTING IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
- COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSE A HIGH RISK FOR COLD WATER SHOCK
AND HYPOTHERMIA. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE
WATER.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM, RISING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO COOL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LATE-
WEEK PATTERN SHIFT WILL COME WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING
SUNDAY'S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER
AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
FOR MID MAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD MID
TO UPPER 80S. A FEW READINGS IN LOW 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WARMER SPOTS OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE DEEPER COLUMBIA
BASIN (EPHRATA, MOSES LAKE, MATTAWA) AND DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: DETAILS IN THE FORECAST BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL PLACE THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW, USHERING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
IS THE TRAJECTORY THE LOW, WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN EXPECT. AROUND 45 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DEPICT THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WHILE 20 PERCENT SHOW IT TRACKING FURTHER NORTH, TAKING A DIRECT
PATH ACROSS WASHINGTON. THE OTHER 35 PERCENT OF MEMBERS ARE
GOING FOR SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, SUGGESTING THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS OREGON. IF THE LOW STAYS AS FAR SOUTH AS CALIFORNIA,
WE'LL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION, BUT IF IT TRACKS DIRECTLY
OVER WASHINGTON, WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO OVER 0.5 INCHES. A MORE DIRECT TRACK OVER THE
REGION WOULD ALSO MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO STAYING IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE 20
PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREDICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASED LIFT TO TRIGGER STORMS.
A SECOND LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SENDING
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH. THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN INCREASED ODDS FOR
THE NECESSARY FORCING.
BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS STRONGER AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITIONAL DAYS WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES. /FEWKES
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAVE DRY, VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT PASSING HIGHER
CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 73 45 84 53 76 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 71 45 84 53 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
PULLMAN 69 43 84 52 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
LEWISTON 75 47 87 56 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 30 30
COLVILLE 78 41 86 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 10 30 30
SANDPOINT 73 46 83 52 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 30 30
KELLOGG 72 44 88 52 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
MOSES LAKE 77 46 89 54 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 77 52 86 59 80 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
OMAK 78 49 87 56 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 30 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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