237
FXUS66 KOTX 162348
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
448 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND: TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
- HYDROLOGY CONCERNS: RAIN ON SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO RIVER RISES.
- BREEZY WINDS: PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A WARMER AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH CASCADES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO RISES ON RIVERS.
DISCUSSION
THE INLAND NORTHWEST IS IN THE MIDST OF A PATTERN SHIFT AS AN
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND A DEEP LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA,
DIRECTING THE POLAR JET AT SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER A PLUME OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION SENDING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO
LOW 70S AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL TOTALS: WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO
OUR NORTHWEST OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL STILL HOVER BETWEEN 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER
WASHINGTON AND IDAHO THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE CASCADE CREST
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTING A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3+ INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION THERE BY FRIDAY. OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE,
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWER WITH A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS: THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE SHARP RIVER RISES
ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE LOWER STEHEKIN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
STEHEKIN RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 22 FEET ON SATURDAY. WE
ARE ALSO MONITORING PARADISE CREEK, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS EVENING. WHILE WE ARE ANTICIPATING RIVER
RISES, WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANYWHERE NEAR THE LEVEL OF
FLOODING SEEN LAST WEEK. PARADISE CREEK IS FORECAST TO CREST AROUND
8.5 FEET, JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. IN CONTRAST, LAST WEEK
PARADISE CREEK ROSE ALL THE WAY TO 11.5 FEET, WHICH WAS ABOVE
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND BROKE THE PREVIOUS HIGH FLOW RECORD.
WINDS: BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND IN
THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA DOWN TO THE PALOUSE. THE HREF
INDICATES A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GUSTS TOPPING 40 MPH.
OUR NEXT PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH WILL TRIGGER A REGIONWIDE COOLDOWN INTO
THE 50S. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO START RECEDING.
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR TAF SITES. FEW AND/OR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
SPOKANE/CDA AREA. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDTIONS REMAINS LESS
THAN 30% FOR GEG-SFF-COE FOR THE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
IN EVENING MVFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER GEG-SFF-COE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 40 57 46 61 48 65 / 20 20 40 20 20 10
COEUR D'ALENE 38 55 44 57 45 62 / 30 30 70 40 30 20
PULLMAN 42 57 46 62 48 65 / 20 30 30 20 10 10
LEWISTON 43 61 47 69 49 71 / 10 20 20 10 10 0
COLVILLE 34 59 43 60 44 63 / 10 10 40 30 20 20
SANDPOINT 38 50 42 51 42 55 / 40 40 90 70 50 50
KELLOGG 42 51 46 55 47 59 / 40 50 80 60 50 30
MOSES LAKE 42 67 48 69 49 71 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 41 64 49 65 48 66 / 20 30 30 20 10 20
OMAK 39 59 46 62 43 60 / 10 10 20 10 10 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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