732
FXUS66 KOTX 131124
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
424 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
- DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
MORNING LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AND NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER WILL BE DRIER THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY, INITIATING A MODEST WARMING TREND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT (~15%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS, BUT VERY DRY MID-LEVELS AND WEAK
DYNAMICS LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS.
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWARD WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESTABLISHING LIGHT EASTERLY
TO OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, PEAKING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY, WHICH
IS ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY BEFORE MODERATING LATE IN THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ELSEWHERE, WITH MILDER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE
WENATCHEE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY. THIS IS RATHER WEAK WITH THE WIND FORECAST TRENDING DOWN
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN AT AND WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
THIS OPENS THE DOOR, HOWEVER, FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR
THIS DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US, THERE REMAINS SOME
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. 71% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THE TROUGH
SHIFTING INLAND, DELIVERING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. ANOTHER 21% SHOW THE
TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW RIDGING TO CONTINUE AND KEEP WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
LONGER. THE REMAINING 8% SUGGEST A WEAKER, PROGRESSIVE WAVE WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT. LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GUIDANCE
REFLECTS THE DOMINANT SCENARIO WITH 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES BETWEEN 5 PM MONDAY AND 5 PM TUESDAY RANGING
FROM 40-60% OVER THE MOUNTAINS, 30-40% ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
IDAHO PANHANDLE VALLEYS, AND 15-25% ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
/VMT
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST, EXCEPT FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK
THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KCOE. THIS WILL ERODE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, REACHING NORTH IDAHO BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 28 59 33 63 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 51 29 57 34 62 35 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 47 27 57 32 62 36 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 53 33 60 36 66 39 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 59 23 60 27 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 53 25 55 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 47 29 55 34 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 59 29 62 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 60 37 64 44 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 58 32 63 34 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-OKANOGAN VALLEY.
ID...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR LEWISTON AREA.
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