317
FXUS66 KOTX 232217
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
317 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS
- FALLING RIVER LEVELS ON STEHEKIN, COEUR D'ALENE, AND ST JOE
RIVERS INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER RISE FOR MID-WEEK
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING JUST EAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRIVING THIS
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS A ROBUST 170+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE 150W LONGITUDINAL LINE WILL SUPPLY
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AN AREA OF BAROCLINICITY
IS TAKING SHAPE AT AROUND 42N 138W WHERE CYCLOGENESIS IS
UNDERWAY. THE PROGNOSIS IS FOR THE THE LOW TO DEEPEN FROM AROUND
1000MB CURRENTLY TO 990MB AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSHING ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. GOOD MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THE MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS
PUSHING 250% OF NORMAL WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS REGIONWIDE. DOWN
SLOPING WILL OCCUR WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CASCADES WHICH
WILL NEGATE THE UPWARD MOTION FROM THE WARM FRONT TO AN EXTENT
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES. LIGHT RAIN OF UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
PLACES LIKE WENATCHEE, OMAK, AND MOSES LAKE. THE RAIN SHADOW
WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN WASHINGTON WITH
PLACES LIKE COLVILLE, SPOKANE, AND PULLMAN EXPECTED TO GET A
GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WITH TOTALS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF TWO TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL SEE BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL SEE OVER A HALF OF INCH TO NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. THE
CASCADE CREST WILL SEE A ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE
WARM FRONT WITH BETWEEN 1.00-1.50 INCHES. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE
AT LEAST A HALF TO TWO-THIRDS LESS THAN THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN
THAT PUSHED THE STEHEKIN RIVER ABOVE THE 24 FOOT STAGE. THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DOESN'T RIVAL THAT
OF THE MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FROM LATE LAST WEEK. WE WILL
SEE RISES ON RIVERS, INCLUDING THE STEHEKIN RIVER, AND SMALL
STREAMS, BUT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE STEHEKIN RIVER IS A SPECIAL CASE AS IT IS VERY
SENSITIVE TO RISES AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVER STEVENS
PASS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT SNOW ISN'T EXPECTED TO START
STICKING UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES COOL. TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVER STEVENS PASS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN INTENSITY AND POSE A MINOR IMPACT TO TRAVEL. WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE BREEZY ON
TUESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE MIXING POTENTIAL. WINDS ALOFT
WILL DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE UP AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS THE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BRING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED INTO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING SNOW
AND/OR GRAUPEL AS THE PRECIP TYPE OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TO RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. SOME MELTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SLIGHT RISES FOR RIVERS. WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A BIG WARM UP AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT SNOW MELT THAT RUNS
OFF ACROSS WATERSHEDS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGESTS
THAT IT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LASTING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS DISPLACING THE RIDGE BY NEXT MONDAY.
/SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CHANGES WILL ARRIVE AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AND CEILINGS CONTINUING TO
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z TUESDAY AT
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AIRPORT TERMINALS. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 52 38 51 29 47 / 0 90 90 20 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 40 51 39 51 30 49 / 0 90 100 40 40 10
PULLMAN 43 55 41 48 29 45 / 0 90 90 50 30 10
LEWISTON 46 61 46 55 34 52 / 0 70 90 50 20 0
COLVILLE 40 51 36 52 27 51 / 10 100 80 30 20 10
SANDPOINT 38 47 38 49 30 47 / 0 100 100 60 50 30
KELLOGG 42 50 40 47 30 44 / 0 90 100 60 50 40
MOSES LAKE 45 60 38 56 30 54 / 0 70 30 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 44 57 38 51 32 51 / 0 80 30 20 10 0
OMAK 41 54 37 55 30 54 / 0 90 40 20 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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