267
FXUS66 KOTX 271117
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
417 AM PDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY AND A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN ON
THE BACK EDGE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE.
THIS PLACES THE REGION IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
VERY LITTLE FORCING WILL BE SUPPLIED ALOFT WITH SHOWERS PRIMARILY
BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. BEST CHANCES OF BETWEEN A
40-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
AND IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR A ONE HIT WONDER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMAL IF ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THOUGH.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS TODAY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND LOCATION WITH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE SEEING A 30-50%
CHANCE. NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE FOR
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN TO
TAKE ITS PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODEL
ENSEMBLES ARE IF FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AROUND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL LARGELY JUST FLATTEN THE RIDGE
OUT AND BRING ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER.
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AROUND 80% OF
THE MEMBERS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ONSHORE OFF OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES
INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS UNDER THE RIDGE
AND THIS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-30%) OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. SOLUTIONS WITH A
DEEPER LOW INDICATE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AND WE WILL ALSO BE SEEING SOME 80 DEGREE WEATHER IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE CASCADES AND OKANOGAN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN EXPANDING MINOR HEATRISK
ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IT'S A BIT EARLY TO BE SEEING
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 80S AND OUR BODIES ARE STILL
ACCLIMATE. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IF PLANNING TO BE OUTSIDE
AND DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT IN THE
CASCADES AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CANADA THAT FEEDS SOME OF OUR
MAINSTEM RIVERS. THESE RISES WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR THOUGH. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS THE STEHEKIN RIVER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH AND IMPACT THE STEHEKIN COMMUNITY THERE. /SVH
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND WITH DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR, BUT IT IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND
MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KLWS TO KPUW.
SHOWERS AROUND KCOE, KPUW, KLWS WILL BE LIGHT BUT MAY PRODUCE
OUTFLOWS WITH GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
DECAYING SHOWERS ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HIGHER GUSTS THAN
REFLECTIVE IN THE TAFS OF UP TO 20-25 KTS FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE-
KPUW/KLWS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 61 39 63 41 67 42 / 10 0 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 58 38 60 41 65 41 / 20 0 10 10 10 0
PULLMAN 57 37 60 40 64 41 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 61 41 65 44 69 44 / 30 0 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 63 35 66 39 71 39 / 10 0 20 10 10 0
SANDPOINT 56 37 58 41 63 40 / 20 10 30 10 20 0
KELLOGG 55 38 58 41 64 41 / 50 20 40 10 30 0
MOSES LAKE 68 39 70 41 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 67 44 69 45 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 66 41 69 43 74 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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