948
FXUS66 KOTX 252341
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
341 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY
- INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A MILDER AND POTENTIALLY WET
PATTERN DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS TURN WARMER AND WETTER WITH MIDWEEK
SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A COLD
AND DRY ENVIRONMENT FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST. IT BRINGS LITTLE
CONCERNS PRECIP WISE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GFS AND NAM ARE
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY SATURATED ENOUGH TO SHOW OVERNIGHT FOG IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG IS LESS THAN
10%. THE DRY, CLEAR SKY ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PRESS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST AS THE LOW PRESSES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEAKENED AND POSITIONED OVER WESTERN MONTANA, A MILDER,
SATURATED SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE SNOW WITH THE CASCADES
RECEIVING A 24 HOUR 25-75 PERCENTILE SPREAD OF 2-12 INCHES ALONG
THE CREST AND 1-6 INCHES ON THE EAST SLOPES. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50% CHANCE OF HALF AN INCH OF SNOW
WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON TIMING, EVENING
COMMUTES COULD BE IMPACTED BY LIGHT SNOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED WARM AIR FLOW WILL MAKE
PRECIP TYPE CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN. ENSEMBLE INCONSISTENCY
MAKES TIMING THE CHANGE DIFFICULT. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, NBM IS WARMING THE VALLEYS QUICKER THAN OTHERS. FOR
THE BASIN, SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY. THE VALLEYS
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
START FRIDAY AT 4000 FT BEFORE CLIMBING TO 5000 FT FOR SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY TO
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW EXITS THE REGION AND
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. /JDC
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: STRATUS HAS CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A
MARGINAL MVFR STRATUS LAYER IN THE CASCADE VALLEYS OF CHELAN
COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HOW THIS STRATUS WILL
EVOLVE AND COVERAGE OVER KEAT. STRATUS WAS ALSO SLOW TO BURN OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND COLVILLE, WITH ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, THICKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. JW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE TONIGHT FOR KEAT WITH COVERAGE OF MVFR STRATUS
DECK IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 18 30 22 36 28 38 / 0 10 0 0 0 20
COEUR D'ALENE 17 33 21 39 28 39 / 0 10 0 0 0 20
PULLMAN 21 34 27 41 30 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
LEWISTON 23 37 28 44 32 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 16 30 17 33 25 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 18 31 22 36 27 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
KELLOGG 21 35 26 41 31 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
MOSES LAKE 20 33 22 39 26 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 23 32 25 37 28 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
OMAK 21 32 22 35 27 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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