297
FXUS66 KOTX 201810
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1110 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HYDROLOGY CONCERNS: RAIN ON SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS: PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH TODAY.
- A RETURN OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY. SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH CASCADES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO
RISES ON RIVERS. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS WILL SEE THE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MODERATELY STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) SHIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST REGION. THE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THIS TIME WILL HAVE
RAIN CONTINUED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO NORTH IDAHO TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE
CASCADE CREST IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFT THE FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE
SOUTH OF STEVENS PASS BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S;
ALTHOUGH, THEY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. WARM ENOUGH STILL TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SNOWMELT THAT WILL FEED INTO RIVERS, SMALL STREAMS, AND CREEKS. THE
STEHEKIN RIVER IN PARTICULAR WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT WILL
SEE ANOTHER RISE. CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING HIGH
PRIMARILY FROM MELTING SNOW FOR THOSE WITH WATERSHEDS AWAY FROM THE
CASCADE CREST.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE COMPLETELY ACROSS WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE FORCED BY
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS. THERE MAY A PERIOD
OF MODERATE RAINFALL UNDERNEATH THIS BAND FROM PULLMAN INTO THE
SILVER VALLEY. LOOKOUT PASS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW MIXING ALONG
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BAND FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AS RAIN. RIVERS WILL BE ON THE
RISE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL, BUT NOT
TO THE EXTENT AS THE CASCADES.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TODAY. A BIT BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL WILL
RESULT IN A BREEZIER DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WEST-SOUWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AT
15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. IT WILL BE A WARM
WIND ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY WITH THE COLDER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY, BUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS. A
SLIGHT BUMP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS HIGHER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL IN
PARTICULAR HAS LEANED ON THIS STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH A DEEP
SURFACE LOW FORMING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
CANADIAN ARE NOT AS GUNG HO AND INDICATE A STRONGER RIDGE
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE U.S. THAT EXTENDS UP TOWARD
THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A STRONGER RIDGE SCENARIO WOULD DIVERT
THE STORM TRACK MORE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND GIVE
US MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THESE DETAILS GET WORKED OUT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THERE IS CONSENSUS WITH THE
MODEL ENSEMBLES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO SEE A DECREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
AS WELL. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: THE BAND OF MOISTURE DIRECTED AT THE REGION HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF TAF SITES, FOCUSING STEADY RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH ID. TAF SITES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY AND
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FEET.
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO GEG, SFF, AND COE AFTER 3Z THIS EVENING
AS AN INCOMING SYSTEM PUSHES THE BAND OF MOISTURE SOUTHWARD.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THE COLUMBIA BASIN INCLUDING MWH AND OVER
THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA DOWN TO THE PALOUSE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TAF SITES. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
WIND.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 65 44 56 30 50 32 / 30 40 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 63 44 55 30 50 31 / 50 70 40 0 0 0
PULLMAN 67 45 52 31 50 33 / 10 60 60 10 0 0
LEWISTON 74 50 59 35 56 37 / 10 40 60 10 0 0
COLVILLE 63 41 59 29 52 30 / 70 20 20 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 42 53 30 48 31 / 90 80 50 10 0 0
KELLOGG 62 45 51 32 48 32 / 40 80 70 10 0 0
MOSES LAKE 71 45 59 30 56 34 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 42 52 32 53 35 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 66 40 57 31 54 33 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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