678
FXUS66 KOTX 251245
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
545 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM PULLMAN TO COEUR D'ALENE PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKLES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGER HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- STRONG WINDS ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
- THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH A
RISK FOR HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SYNOPSIS
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL WA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND IDAHO MONDAY EVENING DELIVERING A BURST OF STRONG
WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY-THURSDAY: SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE COMING TO THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE INW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF A
MULTI-DAY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. A DEEP LOW NEARING THE
PACNW COASTLINE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO OREGON OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE LOW WILL USHER A ROBUST COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON CROSSING THE CASCADES AFTER 3PM AND PUNCHING
TOWARD THE WA/ID BORDER AFTER 5PM. THIS WILL DELIVER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
LOCALLY, WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 50 MPH (10-30% CHANCE).
STRONGEST WINDS WILL CHANNEL THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS, COME
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE L-C VALLEY/PALOUSE. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE SUBTLE INCREASE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTURE WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER FAR SE WA AND THE LOWER ID
PANHANDLE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MODELED CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (CIN) FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON ITS OWN BUT
FORCING ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT WILL LIKELY CHANGE THAT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MODEST
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MODERATE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, DCAPES OF 800-1100 J/KG SUGGEST ANY RAIN/HAIL
CORES COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE A
MATTER OF TIMING FOR ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE STORMS (1" HAIL / WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH), BUT IN GENERAL,
CONDITIONS WILL FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST
RISK FOR STRONGER CELLS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MULLAN, ID TO LEWISTON, ID WHERE WE FIND THE GREATEST CAPE/SHEAR
OVERLAP AND DERIVED SUPERCELL COMPOSITES. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE INCLUDING SPOKANE-CD'A, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CAM MODELS
SHOWING A FEW APPRECIABLE CELLS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE THERMODYNAMIC INGREDIENTS ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE LOWER
IDAHO PANHANDLE BUT IF THESE CELLS DO MATERIALIZE, THEY WOULD
POSE A THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS.
IF YOU HAVE PLANS OUTSIDE THIS EVENING OR PLAN ON TRAVELING
ACROSS THE INLAND NW, BE PREPARED FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STRONG WINDS, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOLKS
TRAVELING ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN MAY ENCOUNTER BRIEF PERIODS
OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND CHALLENGING TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ANGLERS AND RECREATIONISTS
ON THE LAKES LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING SHOULD EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION AND MONITOR WEATHER CLOSELY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: AS THE UPPER-LOW SETTLES OVER OREGON, PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH THE INLAND NW.
TUESDAY WILL BE COOL WITH MAINLY SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAMPING
UP. CONSEQUENTLY, AS THESE DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH, THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF
THESE DAYS. I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN THE PRECISE TIMING
OF THESE DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME BUT OUTPUT FROM THE RRFS AND
NAM3KM DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, ANY ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY TRACK FROM
EAST TO WEST OR IN A GENERAL COUNTERCLOCKWISE DIRECTION ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. I STRONGLY URGE FOLKS TO PAY
ATTENTION TO DAY TO DAY WEATHER UPDATES IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, STORMS WILL BECOME
WETTER WITH TIME INCREASING THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO CAMP IN THE BACK-COUNTRY, PACK APPROPRIATE
GEAR TO STAY DRY AND WARM. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE THEIR LOWEST
TUESDAY MORNING DIPPING AS LOW AS 5000 FEET IN THE CASCADES. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WET CONDITIONS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER GEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MUCH
HIGHER IN IDAHO, RESIDING AROUND 9000 FEET.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLES
FOR ANOTHER LOW TO SWING INTO THE EASTERN PAC AND TOWARD THE NW
COAST. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER TO SEND THE OREGON LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST DELIVERING YET ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SWINGS
INLAND SUNDAY RENEWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AS ONE
SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER ARRIVES. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
AROUND 20Z. THAT IS WHEN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS AND RAIN. MAIN OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT. HREF HAS WINDS
INCREASING AROUND 03Z FOR GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW, THOUGH A
COUPLE LAMP MODELS HAVE THOSE WINDS MOVING IN AT 00Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM 18-00Z FOR LWS, MWH, AND EAT. WINDS WILL REACH
30-35KTS, ESPECIALLY DURING 00-06Z. ADDITIONALLY, THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR GEG, SFF,
COE, AND PUW. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR THESE
TERMINALS. LWS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE HAVE A
20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SO INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
00-06Z IN THE LWS TAF. MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE
ALONGSIDE THE SHARP WIND SHIFT. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A
10-20% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS AT GEG, SFF, AND COE TO DEGRADE TO
MVFR - HAVE PUT THIS IN AS A PROB30 FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR DEGRADED CEILINGS INCREASE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MAIN UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH TIMING OF THE SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS. MODELS VARY BETWEEN 23Z-03Z FOR THE ARRIVAL. MOST
IMPACTFUL ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE INCREASE ARRIVING
SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE TAFS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE LWS TERMINAL. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST. IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY THAT CEILINGS WILL START LOWERING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR BY
12Z. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 81 46 63 46 76 50 / 0 50 20 30 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 81 49 62 48 75 53 / 0 60 30 40 10 30
PULLMAN 80 43 56 42 68 47 / 0 50 30 40 20 30
LEWISTON 87 51 62 49 72 53 / 0 50 40 50 30 30
COLVILLE 80 43 69 42 82 47 / 0 70 30 30 10 20
SANDPOINT 80 48 64 47 76 52 / 0 50 30 50 20 30
KELLOGG 84 48 61 47 76 52 / 0 70 40 50 10 40
MOSES LAKE 81 44 67 45 81 51 / 0 70 0 20 10 0
WENATCHEE 77 50 67 52 80 58 / 0 40 30 10 0 0
OMAK 79 49 68 50 83 55 / 0 70 60 20 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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