552
FXUS66 KOTX 222055
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
155 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- WEATHER CHANGES ARRIVE LATE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
BRING CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE TEENS. AS
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THESE WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AN APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES
INCREASE TO 20-30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, AND EXPAND INTO
THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION MANIFEST INTO AN AREA
OF ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HIGH BASED ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATABLE WATER (125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND SLOW
STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCAL DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER INITIALLY. PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CORES
IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND ISOLATES STRIKES IN ANY
DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. ON
THURSDAY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MAJOR
WEATHER CHANGES.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PER THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, THERE IS A
100 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING
OVER A MULTI-DAY PERIOD AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LINGERS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
EARLY FRIDAY WITH A 70-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON, CASCADE CREST, AND ID PANHANDLE WITH A
20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON. OVER
THE WEEKEND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE REGION. HERE IS
WHERE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE PRECISE LOCATION OF
THE LOW AND HOW THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EVOLVES. BUT AT
MINIMUM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY, AS WELL AS
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
TYPE OF AIR MASS CHANGE BY FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: CONDITIONS AT REGIONAL AIR FIELDS WILL CONTINUE AT
VFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND CENTRAL WA INCLUDING KOMK
AND KMWH WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 86 55 89 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 53 85 57 88 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
PULLMAN 49 84 52 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 56 91 59 93 61 91 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 48 88 53 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
SANDPOINT 52 84 56 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
KELLOGG 51 84 55 86 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
MOSES LAKE 56 91 57 94 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 90 64 91 64 87 / 0 0 0 10 20 0
OMAK 57 91 60 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 10 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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