778
FXUS66 KOTX 041139
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
339 AM PST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A SLICK
COMMUTES.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A TRANSITION OF SNOW TO RAIN LATE
THIS WEEK WITH BREEZY WINDS.
- MODERATE IMPACTS FROM SNOW EXPECTED ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ROCK SLIDES NEXT WEEK WITH A MILD AND
WET WEATHER PATTERN.
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL TREND MUCH MORE UNSETTLED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY TO SUPPORT A LOWLAND WINTRY MIX. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY AND WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MIXED VALLEY PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL BE AIMED
AT THE REGION BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION RESULTS IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE ID PANHANDLE,
PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 175-200%
OF NORMAL FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP ERODE THE COLD AIR
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, REACHING THE WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE
AREAS AND THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE AROUND 33-35F, BUT
GAIN A LITTLE ELEVATION ONTO THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING
COLDER FOR THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN. WITH THE WARMING ALOFT AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING, THE HREF CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. YET, WITH
POP'S ONLY CHANCE AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT CONFIDENCE
IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR AN ADVISORY IS LOW. AS PRECIPITATION
REACHES NE WASHINGTON INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING TO
2000-2500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS TONIGHT AS THE FIRST
WAVE BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
HREF SHOWS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO BE SCRUBBED OUT FOR MAINLY A
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT EXCEPT THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 2000 FEET. THIS WAVE WILL CARRY
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EVEN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS CHANGING TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
ALSO BE STRONGER JET SUPPORT AS A ROBUST 160 KT ZONAL JET TAKES
AIM AT THE REGION. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS, JET BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR MIXING POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
THESE HIGHER GUSTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. YET THERE ARE A
FEW EXCEPTIONS. ONE BEING AROUND THE WENATCHEE AREA AND WATERVILLE
PLATEAU WHERE A STABLE LAYER ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY ALLOW
STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX DOWN. ANOTHER IS THE ALPOWA SUMMIT AREA NEAR
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WITH HRRR CURRENTLY ADVERTISING GUSTS AROUND
50 MPH.
WITH SNOW LEVELS ON THE INCREASE THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW IMPACTS
FOR STEVENS PASS AS STEADY LIGHT SNOW TODAY CHANGES TO RAIN
TONIGHT. AFTER THE STRONG JET FRIDAY SAGS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS FALL BACK DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET SATURDAY LEADING TO A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO IMPACT THE PASS. FOR LOOKOUT PASS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS MAINLY SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FIRST
ROUND OF SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WINTER STORM WATCH
ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A MILD AND WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
ROUNDS OF MORE PRECIPITATION. THESE NEXT ROUNDS LOOK TO CONTAIN
GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TAKES AIM AT THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER THAT MODEL DIFFER IF IT
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY OR LIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 5000 TO 7000 FEET WHICH MEANS EVEN MOST OF THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES SEE A CHANGE TO RAIN. SO CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TO
MUD AND ROCK SLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MELT,
AND RISES ON RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS. AT THIS TIME NO FLOODING IS
FORECAST. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AVIATION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE ID PANHANDLE.
WEAK ASCENT IN THE STRATUS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO
INCLUDING KGEG. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE AIR MASS
SATURATES AND SNOW BEGINS TO FALL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY. P-TYPE
WILL BE MESSY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX AROUND KMWH
AND POINTS NORTHWARD INCLUDING GRAND COULEE, WATERVILLE, AND
WILBUR WHERE POCKETS OF -FZRA ARE EXPECTED. KMWH HAS LOWER
CHANCES FOR -FZRA WITH TEMPS AT 34F. AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
APPROACHES KGEG, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO SE WA AND NC IDAHO WHERE IT WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR KPUW TO SWITCH TO RAIN
AROUND 00Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK INTO NE
WA AND N ID FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION AND OVERNIGHT FOR
KPUW/KLWS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE
TO SATURATE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND
KEAT OVERNIGHT.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION IS KEAT WHERE INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY HELP BREAK UP THE STRATUS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SETUP INCREASES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS WINDS
SUBSIDE. ANOTHER ALTERNATE SCENARIO FOR TODAY WOULD BE FOR
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWS AT KCOE/KGEG/KPUW AND POTENTIAL FOR 2
INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. THIS COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BUT IS WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 34 32 39 35 44 36 / 80 70 90 60 40 30
COEUR D'ALENE 35 32 39 35 43 35 / 90 70 100 80 70 60
PULLMAN 36 33 44 38 44 38 / 100 90 100 90 70 60
LEWISTON 39 37 49 41 51 41 / 90 90 100 90 50 50
COLVILLE 36 32 36 33 41 32 / 70 40 90 60 50 30
SANDPOINT 35 32 36 33 39 35 / 80 70 100 90 80 70
KELLOGG 35 33 40 35 40 37 / 100 90 100 100 90 80
MOSES LAKE 36 35 43 36 50 36 / 70 50 70 20 10 10
WENATCHEE 39 35 47 38 49 37 / 50 50 80 50 30 30
OMAK 35 33 38 34 42 33 / 50 40 90 40 20 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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