314
FXUS66 KOTX 101151
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
451 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEK OVER
THE CASCADE AND NORTH IDAHO MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, STRONG WINDS,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE: THE START TIME OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
FOR THE STEVENS PASS AREA TO BEGIN AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TODAY: A CONVERGENCE ZONE AIMED PERFECTLY AT STEVENS PASS HAS BROUGHT
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE RAZOR THIN BAND OF SNOW
WILL WAVER THROUGH THE MORNING AND THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS BRING AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW, ON
TOP OF AROUND 8 INCHES THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN MONDAY EVENING.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
EXTREME EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID. A TRACE OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE GRASS UNDER THESE SHOWERS.
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY: THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATE.
THERE WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND
EVENTUALLY THE ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SOME LOWLAND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH
ID, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD QUICKLY
MELT IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM
WARNING STARTS AT 5 PM THIS EVENING IN THE CASCADES WHEN SNOW
RATES INCREASE. THEN, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE CASCADES WILL
BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE HOWLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN BC AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ALBERTA AND PRESSURE INCREASES OFF THE WA/OR COAST. MODELS SHOW
500 MB WINDS AROUND 90-135 KT AT 500 MB, SOMETHING NOT SEEN
OFTEN HERE. EVEN AT 700 MB, MODELS SHOW AROUND UP TO 90 KT OF
WESTERLY FLOW. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
(DRIVEN BY MOUNTAIN WAVES) AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO (PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING DRIVEN). WINDS DECREASE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST AB
PEELS EAST INTO EASTERN MT.
SNOW WILL BE NEARLY CONTINUOUS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
WAVER AT LOOKOUT PASS AND MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED,
SO IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE CASCADE PASSES.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE THE HEAVY SNOW WILL RAMP DOWN FRIDAY
(BUT NOT COMPLETELY STOP) INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA STRENGTHENS,
DISPLACING THE POLAR JET WELL INTO CANADA. HYDROLOGY CONCERNS
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK FOR THE ID PANHANDLE WITH LOWLAND RAIN
AND SOME SNOWMELT. CURRENTLY PARADISE CREEK AT MOSCOW, PALOUSE
RIVER AT POTLATCH, AND THE COEUR D’ALENE RIVER AT CATALDO ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE STEHEKIN RIVER WILL ALSO HOVER AROUND ACTION STAGE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS WELL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS BEING WARM
ENOUGH TO BRING HIGH ELEVATION RAIN. THIS WOULD POSE CONCERNS
FOR A RAIN ON SNOW EVENT.
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 25-75TH PERCENTILE TOTAL SNOWFALL SHOWS
36-57 INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS AND SNOQUALMIE PASS AND 11-24
INCHES FOR LOOKOUT PASS FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. /DB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AROUND KPUW/KCOE
TUESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY UNDER THESE SHOWERS COULD DIP TO 4 TO
5 MILES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 31 46 40 48 38 / 10 30 70 80 60 80
COEUR D'ALENE 41 29 43 38 46 37 / 30 60 90 90 80 90
PULLMAN 38 29 44 40 46 40 / 30 60 90 90 90 90
LEWISTON 46 33 50 45 54 46 / 20 50 70 90 90 80
COLVILLE 44 27 45 35 49 33 / 10 30 70 80 50 70
SANDPOINT 39 29 40 37 44 35 / 40 70 100 100 90 90
KELLOGG 36 28 40 37 41 38 / 70 80 100 100 100 100
MOSES LAKE 47 31 53 41 53 39 / 10 10 20 40 40 50
WENATCHEE 45 31 47 39 48 38 / 20 40 60 80 70 70
OMAK 45 29 47 36 53 33 / 10 30 50 70 50 60
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
WENATCHEE AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE
AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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