748
FXUS66 KOTX 311142
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TUESDAY: THE REGION IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BE A
LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. IT IS PUSHING BANDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM IS
KEEPING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4000FT. PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES ARE 40% FOR STEVENS, 90% FOR SHERMAN, AND 60% FOR
LOOKOUT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT NEAR AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN. HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" FOR SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LOWER IDAHO
PANHANDLE. MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK ON EXPECTED INSTABILITY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WA AND LOWER ID
PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES ARE ~200J/KG WITH DECENT SHEAR. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. AS THE LOW EXITS ON TUESDAY, A COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE PLACE. IT WILL BRING
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 3000FT BUT ALSO DRIER AIR. IT IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE IMPACTS
AS THEY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. /JDC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
THE PAC NW WILL SEE A SECONDARY WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS (FOR
THE CASCADE CREST, MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE) AND A 15% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WA AND THE SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY AND IT
ISN'T UNTIL THE RIDGE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION, AND WE GET
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN NORTHERLY
FLOW THAT THE BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY. THE SHOWER
THREAT CONTINUES THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR E WA, AND A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
ID. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOL AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SEE LIGHT SNOW IF A SHOWER MOVES OVER. THIS
INCLUDES THE PASSES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE, NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES INLAND. 60% OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A QUICKER PROGRESSION AND DRY FORECAST. 40% ARE
SLOWER AND KEEP THE AXIS OFFSHORE WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVER OUR AREA WITH ADDITIONAL HIT AND MISS SHOWERS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPS NEAR
AVERAGE - IN THE 50S. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S (AND LOWER 70S
FOR PARTS OF THE LC VALLEY AND MOSES LAKE REGION). LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND OR PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR OVER
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT AND
THEREFORE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY THERE ARE AGAIN DISAGREEMENTS WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE SUITE OF WEATHER MODELS WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE RIDGE
AND A POTENTIAL TROUGH TRYING TO NEAR THE WEST COAST. ONLY 28% OF
THE ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND
THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. THE REST KEEP THE RIDGE STRONG, CONDITIONS DRY AND
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS GOING WITH THE LATER SCENARIO OF CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY. /NISBET
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A SERIES OF SHOWER BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA REACHING THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR EASTERN WA AND
ID PANHANDLE. THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR KPUW-
KGEG- KSFF- KCOE THROUGH 0Z. TIMING OF THESE BANDS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ON
MONDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DEEPEN IN DEPTH
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE DEGREE OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER ANY SITE RECEIVES
LIGHTNING OR NOT. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER CELLS. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS
MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY FOR CIGS IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 54 35 54 36 51 34 / 70 20 20 10 40 20
COEUR D'ALENE 53 35 52 35 49 33 / 90 40 40 20 60 40
PULLMAN 52 34 51 36 48 33 / 90 20 30 10 40 20
LEWISTON 57 38 58 40 54 37 / 90 30 20 10 30 20
COLVILLE 55 34 55 31 53 31 / 70 40 30 10 50 30
SANDPOINT 52 36 49 36 47 34 / 70 60 60 30 70 60
KELLOGG 50 37 47 37 45 35 / 90 40 70 20 80 40
MOSES LAKE 60 36 61 36 58 35 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 38 60 37 55 36 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 37 62 35 58 34 / 70 40 10 0 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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