114
FXUS66 KOTX 220749
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1249 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS TREND COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY.
- AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS STRONGER WINDS AND AN
INCREASING RISK FOR RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SET TO STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST, BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON
AS IT DOES. THIS LOW WILL BE TOO FAR NORTHWARD TO RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION, BUT IT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED WINDS. WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WERE IN THE MID 80S, HIGHS
TODAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE HIGH 70S, AND WILL DROP FURTHER
INTO THE LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY. A WEST-EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CASCADE GAPS, WHICH LOOK
TO SEE WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
TO 25 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN DUE TO A
DISTURBANCE OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA, STRENGTHENING OFF THE PNW
COAST. AS IT DOES, HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BRUSH THE AREA AS
A BROAD RIDGE SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL
BRIEFLY RISE BACK INTO THE HIGH 70S, WITH SOME ISOLATED 80
DEGREE AREAS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS THE TROUGH WILL THEN
MOVE INLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW POSITIONED OVER
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH NOW THE GFS IS THE DRIER
MODEL AS IT SHOWS A WEAKER LOW MOVING INLAND THAN THE ECMWF,
STILL CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL START IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ON THURSDAY
EVENING, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS TO MOSTLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER MOVING SOLUTION THAT SHOWS
PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ID
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING MORE
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OR GREATER OF AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL INCLUDE THE CASCADES, NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, IDAHO PANHANDLE, WHICH LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED RAIN TOTALS UP TO 0.40 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES (6000-7000 FEET AND ABOVE) TO
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. ELEVATIONS 5000 FEET AND ABOVE
WILL SEE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK, AS SHOULD ANY TRAVELERS OR HIKERS
ANTICIPATING BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW COMBINED WITH A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ASIDE
FROM THE DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN SEES A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT 0.8 INCHES AND ABOVE
AND SATURATED MID AND LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (90%
AND ABOVE) POINT TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES BEING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND HAVE PROGRESSIVELY GOTTEN STRONGER
WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS,
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WENATCHEE, SPOKANE, AND PULLMAN AREAS, WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE 10-15 MPH HIGHER
THAN WHAT MODELS HAD YESTERDAY, AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER INCREASES. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PASS WITH VERY LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRECIPITATION, THOUGH A STRAY SPRINKLE CANNOT BE
RULE OUT. WIND WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS
NEAR 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS DUE
TO WAVE PASSAGE; MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. PASSING
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE GENERATED FROM 18-03Z, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED T-STORM SOUTH OF KLWS. CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW, WITH LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 77 48 72 46 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 76 48 70 46 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 73 45 70 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 81 50 76 52 83 56 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 79 41 72 39 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
SANDPOINT 74 45 68 43 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 74 47 69 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 78 45 73 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
WENATCHEE 77 51 73 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
OMAK 80 47 73 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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