196
FXUS66 KOTX 241228
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
428 AM PST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SPECIFICS.
- FREEZING RAIN ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND LOCAL
POCKETS IN OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH NORTH WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY.
- LOCAL HIGH WINDS IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE
LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS 20-35 MPH FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE AREA.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO BE UNDER AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPACTFUL MOUNTAIN SNOW, LIGHT
LOWLAND RAIN AND SNOW, AND BREEZY WINDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING UPDATE: ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURE DOWN
A BIT NEAR THE CASCADES, TO ALLOW FOR MORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
CONTINUED TO HAVE THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIMES AT WENATCHEE, WITH
TEMPERATURE SITTING AT FREEZING. I LOWERED HIGHS IN THIS PART OF
THE CWA TO ALLOW FOR MORE OF THAT MIX IN THE FORECAST. /SOLVEIG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHRISTMAS DAY: A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WA COAST TODAY. THIS WILL DRAW
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVING TWO MAIN
IMPACTS. FIRST WILL BE A STRONG LOW--LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN WA AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. FOR MOST AREAS, THIS LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND MAINLY RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IMPACTING AVIATION. THIS CANNOT BE SAID FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WA AND THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE INCLUDING WESTERN
LEWIS, SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE, ASOTIN, AND GARFIELD COUNTIES. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
CHANNELING UP THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND IMPACTING THE
SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN. NUMEROUS 00Z HI-RES MODELS ARE
LATCHING ON TO THIS AND HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS SPEEDS SUCH
THAT THE HREF MEAN IS NOW BETWEEN 50-60 MPH FROM WINCHESTER, ID
TO WAHA AND INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FROM 7AM TO 2PM. IN THESE COMPLEX
SCENARIOS, THE GUSTS AND PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
DROP OFF DRASTICALLY FROM ASOTIN NORTHWARD INTO CLARKSTON AND
EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN GARFIELD COUNTY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MANY AREAS BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSER TO 30-35 MPH.
THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS STRONG ASCENT INTO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO FALL TODAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WENATCHEE AND ENTIAT RIVER VALLEYS ARE CURRENTLY 35-36F WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT WET
SNOW AT TIMES. THE MID TO UPPER SLOPES, LAKE WENATCHEE AREA,
STEHEKIN, AND UPPER METHOW VALLEY ARE CURRENTLY 30-33F AND HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS
ARE AS HIGH AS 0.40-0.70" WHICH COULD RESULT IN UPWARDS OF 4+
INCHES. WARMER AIR WILL BE NOSING INTO THE REGION WHICH LEADS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW OR
SWITCH TO RAIN OR WET, NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW. TYPICALLY IN
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERNS, THE COOLER AIR IS MORE STUBBORN TO
ERODE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CASCADE CREST. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE MIDLEVEL MELTING LAYER TO PIVOT FROM EAST TO
WEST OVER THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS/VALLEY.
WITH THE DOUGLAS AND KRAMER RAWS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR
REPUBLIC STILL AT FREEZING, THESE AREAS WILL BE VULNERABLE TO
PERIODS OF SNOW THEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW WILL EJECT INTO SOUTHERN BC AND A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH USHERING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. IT WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY COLD BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WE WILL SEE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL 8C ACROSS E WA AND IDAHO BRINGING SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS, WIND GUSTS 20-35 MPH, AND BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN. MEANWHILE, THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL WA.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS ONE SYSTEM
DEPARTS BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL DELIVER THE NEXT BOUT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. FOR MOST AREAS, THIS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BACK TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH FAVOR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO HAVE THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT RISE AS HIGH AS WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR LOWLAND SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY NEAR -1C. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TO WARM. JUST TOO MUCH MARITIME INFLUENCE
FROM THESE SYSTEMS TO GET REAL EXCITED FOR SNOW AT THIS POINT
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY-WEEKEND: WE START TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE GULF OF AK. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING USHERING A STRONGER COLD FRONT. A
SUBTLE SHIFT FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW IS EXPECTED AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 0C REGION-WIDE. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT SO ANY SNOW WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. THE AIR MASS COOLS OFF QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND
FINALLY BRINGING OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AND
CLOSE TO OUR 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025 AND ENTER 2026, THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT (85% OF THE 100-MEMBER ENSEMBLE) FOR A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO RESIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS DEVELOPING. THE 15% OF THE ENSEMBLES THAT
DIFFER HAVE A FLATTER RIDGE BY DEC 30-31ST WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST JET. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF OR/WA COAST WILL BRING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS, EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND NORTH IDAHO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT IN THE CASCADES WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN OKANOGAN VALLEY WHERE LOCALIZED
TEMPS ARE AT FREEZING. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY SNOW FOR THE METHOW
VALLEY AND WINTHROP. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AROUND EAT
AS WELL, IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND RAIN, POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH 17-21Z DELIVERING
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AND EVENTUALLY A SHIFT
IN WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST UPSLOPING FLOW
WILL BRING MODERATE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPING STRATUS GEG-COE AFTER
06Z.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOURLY RESTRICTIONS AT LWS WHICH IS BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF
SHALLOW FOG. LWS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH WINDS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH 15-22Z.
PROBABILITIES FOR THE HIGH WINDS TO REACH LWS ARE LOW AND LLWS
IS MORE LIKELY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 32 44 35 41 26 / 70 20 50 70 60 40
COEUR D'ALENE 43 33 45 35 43 28 / 70 50 50 80 80 60
PULLMAN 48 36 47 36 42 29 / 40 30 50 70 80 50
LEWISTON 52 38 50 38 48 34 / 20 20 20 50 50 40
COLVILLE 37 31 40 34 40 22 / 100 30 60 80 70 40
SANDPOINT 39 34 42 35 40 26 / 80 60 60 90 90 80
KELLOGG 43 35 47 35 40 28 / 60 60 60 90 90 80
MOSES LAKE 46 31 44 32 41 26 / 70 0 50 40 30 10
WENATCHEE 38 30 36 29 36 27 / 90 10 60 40 40 10
OMAK 35 30 36 32 36 23 / 100 20 50 50 30 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES.
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