098
FXUS66 KOTX 042304
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
304 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: A STRETCHING UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS
THE INLAND NW, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE PRECIPITATION, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWLAND RAIN. CHANCE WILL REMAIN HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAIN, THEN DEVELOPS INTO A LINE OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES FROM NEAR THE CASCADES TO EASTERN WA
AND ID BETWEEN LATE EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY
THEN RETREATS BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE CASCADE CREST, SPACED OUT OVER THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE OTHER MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE LOOK FOR DECREASING WINDS THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: A COLDER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY AND PUT THE INLAND NORTHWEST IN A SNOWIER
PATTERN. SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIP WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS. POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES EXPECTED. LOWLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WA
AND NORTH ID COULD ALSO HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE CASCADE PASSES
ARE ESTIMATED TO RECEIVE POTENTIALLY TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW,
ESPECIALLY NEAR STEVENS PASS. THE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR
NEAR THE CASCADE VALLEYS AT THIS TIME MAY LIMITED SNOW AMOUNTS,
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PLACES LIKE THE UPPER METHOW
VALLEY AND INTERIOR WENATCHEE VALLEY HEADING TOWARD THE PASSES.
THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD AMONGST MODELS IN THIS AREA. LOOK PASS
IS ESTIMATED TO GET AROUND 8-12 INCHES, WHILE LOWLAND MOUNTAIN
VALLEY COULD GET AN ESTIMATED 1 TO 5 INCHES. THE SPOKANE AREA
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION, BUT RIGHT NOW GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH IF FAVORED.
WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE ISSUED FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE PERIODS WHERE SNOW
RATES COULD APPROACH (OR EVEN EXCEED) 1 INCH PER HOUR. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ONE SUCH PERIOD THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY. WATCHES WERE ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS MID-TUESDAY TO MID WEDNESDAY.
AREAS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE AMOUNTS THAT
MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA. THE AREAS UNDER 3000 FEET WILL
MAY NOT SEE WARNING AMOUNTS. THIS WAS DIFFERENTIATED IN THE
WINTER HIGHLIGHT PRODUCTS.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY: A RIDGE WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND
BRING A STABLE PATTERN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BANDS WILL BE
PUSHED NORTH. SNOW CHANCES LINGER AROUND THE MOUNTAIN ZONE, WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE WA/ID BORDER. SOME MODERATE SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND (INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK) BUT MODELS ARE
GENERALLY FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION BETWEEN 03-15Z TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AM, STARTING NEAR THE
CASCADES AND SPREADING EAST AFTER 06-09Z. THIS WILL BE A
TRANSIENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL BE MAINLY AS RAIN
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. VFR LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AM WITH THE PRECIPITATION,
FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION IS
AT EAT WHERE IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, BEFORE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AM AT
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/MWH AND MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LCL
LIFR CONDITIONS AT EAT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
PRECISE TIME.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 40 29 37 28 37 / 40 10 0 90 70 30
COEUR D'ALENE 33 39 30 37 29 37 / 60 40 10 90 90 40
PULLMAN 34 40 30 37 30 37 / 60 50 0 80 90 40
LEWISTON 37 46 33 42 35 43 / 60 50 0 50 90 30
COLVILLE 29 40 26 36 23 37 / 40 20 20 90 70 30
SANDPOINT 33 37 30 35 28 35 / 70 60 30 90 100 60
KELLOGG 34 37 30 35 30 33 / 70 80 20 90 100 70
MOSES LAKE 29 42 28 40 28 42 / 10 0 0 50 10 10
WENATCHEE 31 40 30 37 30 39 / 10 0 0 60 30 30
OMAK 30 38 28 36 26 36 / 20 0 0 50 30 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
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