918
FXUS66 KOTX 020534
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
934 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE FORECAST THEN TRENDS DRIER
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVERNIGHT. ONE PASSING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN AND A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING OVER LOOKOUT PASS. ADDED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL START OUT A LITTLE
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING, BUT THEN WEAKEN OVER WITH AS THE FRONT
PUSHES AWAY. IT MAY TAKE INTO THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FOG GETS ESTABLISHED BECAUSE OF THE
WINDS. A DEEPER SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND THIS MAY
FAVOR MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY A
LITTLE BIT OF WIND TO START OUT THE EVENING; HOWEVER, ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SPARSE TO BEGIN THE EVENING, ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE WITH RAPID
CHANGES TO VISIBILITY THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR THE MONDAY COMMUTE PERIOD, AND PEOPLE SHOULD PLAN EXTRA
TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WON'T BE AS UNSTABLE AT MID LEVELS WITH A
BROADER AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION DUE TO MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FORCING ISN'T PARTICULAR STRONG, AND THE LACK OF AN
INSTABILITY COMPONENT, IS EXPECTED TO YIELD EVEN LIGHTER
INTENSITY PRECIPITATION THAN TODAY. RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MEASURING. BETTER CHANCES WITH A PROBABILITY OF 50-70% CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
LITTLE LOWER FOR TOMORROW AT BETWEEN 3,000 TO 4,000 FEET WITH
THE MOUNTAINS STILL ONLY RECEIVING VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHERE UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WITH
HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RIDES UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
BEGINS SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE LONGER
RANGE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE MAY FINALLY SEE A SHIFT IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN FAVORING TROUGHING OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A RIDGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL START OUT MOIST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE TOP. THE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL SEE A LOT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
UNDER THE RIDGE. THE STRATUS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF
THE SURFACE AT NIGHT AND THIS TENDS TO RESULT IN HIGH ENOUGH
MIXING HEIGHTS THAT AIR STAGNATION DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A BIG
CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON,
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE (KGEG/KSFF/K63S/KDEW/KCOE/KSZT). A
DECREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS INTO KMWH AND
KEAT THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS WELL. A CHANCE OF RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP AT LEAST MIX UP THE STRATUS SOME TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT DEGRADING
CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR KEG/KSFF/K63S/KDEW/KCOE/KSZT. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KMWH AND KEAT. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIGHT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 41 33 46 33 50 / 30 40 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 35 43 35 47 33 49 / 60 40 30 0 0 0
PULLMAN 34 44 37 51 36 51 / 30 20 20 0 0 0
LEWISTON 36 48 39 55 38 54 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 32 38 32 45 33 48 / 30 70 20 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 35 38 34 44 35 46 / 80 60 40 0 0 0
KELLOGG 37 41 38 49 36 52 / 80 40 40 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 30 42 32 49 33 50 / 0 30 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 35 40 35 44 36 48 / 0 40 10 0 0 0
OMAK 34 40 34 43 36 45 / 10 40 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page