853
FXUS66 KOTX 180617
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1117 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY, WARM CONDITIONS LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS TODAY.
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDER THREATS AND GUSTY WINDS
INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS.
SYNOPSIS
INCREASED AFTERNOON WINDS LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR
TODAY. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
PATTERN CHANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. WARM DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE BASIN. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS THAN 5% FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WA AND THROUGH THE
CASCADE GAPS. SOUTHEAST WA HAS 40% PROBABILITY OF GUSTS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH. THE CASCADE GAPS HAVE 30-60% CHANCE. THE WINDS HAVE
LED TO AN ELEVATED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD IN THESE AREAS.
HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND BRING
MODERATE HEATRISK TO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE BASIN AND VALLEYS HAVE AN AT LEAST 60% PROBABILITY
OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES FOR THESE DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S.
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND A LOW
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT COULD GENERATE
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROBABILITY OF 10-20% ACROSS THE
REGION. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY DUE TO
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH 20-30% CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLER TREND AS SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED MVFR VIS/CIGS DUE TO SMOKE.
CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY IMPACTS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
BRING TAF VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 6SM FOR ALL TERMINALS APART
FROM EAT. WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SMOKE
NORTH OF THE EAT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO MWH. GUSTS EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR FOR EAT DUE TO SMOKE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WIND INCREASES. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 90 59 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 59 88 58 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 53 86 50 86 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 65 95 60 93 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 51 89 51 88 49 92 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 54 85 54 84 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 56 85 54 85 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 57 92 56 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 91 64 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 64 93 62 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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