711  
FXUS66 KOTX 301150  
AFDOTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA  
450 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 90S TO 100S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MODERATE  
AND MAJOR HEATRISK.  
 
- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SCATTERED, WET AND DRY  
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND SCATTERED, WET THUNDERSTORMS ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
- GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND GUSTY  
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TEMPERATURES BE VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN 90S  
AND LOW 100S. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING A RISK FOR NEW FIRE STARTS. THERE ARE  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND  
ISOLATED HAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
TODAY: A RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL  
WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE HIGH  
90S THROUGH THE LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WARMER OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS FOR PEOPLE PRONE TO HEAT-  
RELATED ILLNESSES IF THEY DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING.  
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IS ANTICIPATED  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OREGON. THIS  
LIFT COMBINED WITH THE WARM FLOW BRINGS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID AND LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS  
VERY LOW, SO THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY DRY  
WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACTS INCLUDE LIGHTNING  
INDUCED FIRE STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. MUCH OF THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST,  
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS, NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND THE NORTHERN IDAHO  
PANHANDLE, WHERE THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF  
THUNDER. SURFACE-BASED CAPE TOMORROW IN THESE AREAS IS 200-500 J/KG.  
WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING CELL  
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SPOKANE AREA, UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, AND LEWISTON  
AREAS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: LOWER HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE FORMING OVER  
CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN A MORE ROBUST SURGE OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE  
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA AROUND THIS TIME, BRINGING CONTINUING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WETTER, AS PWATS SURGE TO 120-150  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. NBM PERCENTAGES INCREASE TO A 10-30 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF THUNDER THESE DAYS, AND COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.  
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE ALONG THE CASCADE  
CREST, WHEREAS HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE IN THE NORTHEAST  
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES  
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH THESE WET  
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONGSIDE CHANCES OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW  
WINDS COMES CHANCES FOR HIGH RAIN TOTALS, WHICH COULD BRING FLASH  
FLOODING TO BURN SCARS. ON FRIDAY IN PARTICULAR, THERE IS A 50-70  
PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN THE NORTHEAST  
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. WHILE CAMS ARE PICKING UP  
WELL ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE  
LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE, WHICH COULD CHANGE WHERE THE HIGHEST  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF  
OF ALASKA WEAKENING, BUT THOSE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL STILL MOVE INTO  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL LOWER  
TEMPERATURES TO A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BEGINNING FRIDAY.  
CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT AGREEABLE ON LOWER HEIGHTS MOVING IN  
OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE  
FAVORING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH, THOUGH CLUSTERS  
ARE UNDECIDED. /AS  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
12Z TAFS: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS  
WARM AND UNSTABLE AND THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL  
MOISTURE TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK MIDLEVEL BUILDUPS  
AROUND SPOKANE-CD'A THIS MORNING WITH A 5-10% CHANCE TO PRODUCE  
SPRINKLE OR A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE. THIS AFTERNOON CUMULUS  
BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED OVER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A  
10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. OMAK, REPUBLIC,  
COLVILLE, AND DEER PARK CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES. A FEW CELLS  
MAY COME IN VCNTY OF COE-GEG BUT GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES,  
WERE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE  
IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SPOKANE-CD'A THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED  
CELLS WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. /SB  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 696 FROM  
WEDNESDAY 1 PM TO 9 PM DUE PRIMARILY FOR HOT AND UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED MOISTURE TO  
ADVECT INTO THE CASCADES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 0.60-0.70  
INCHES (~120%) OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
(8-10C/KM) WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING WITH MIXING HEIGHTS 12K-13K  
FEET AGL OVER THE CASCADES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A SMALL  
RISK (15%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP INVERTED-V  
SOUNDINGS THAT SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IF DEVELOPMENT  
OCCURS. THESE SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.  
 
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CASCADES TO  
THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS FOR THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS INCREASING  
CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERY WARM AND DRY  
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE SUGGEST DECREASED PROBABILITIES FOR  
WET STORMS THOUGH A FEW CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF WETTING RAINS.  
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN NEAR HEAVIER CELLS.  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND NEW FIRE  
STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY FUELS WHERE LAST WEEK'S THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY SKIPPED OVER.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SPOKANE 97 67 97 64 82 60 / 0 10 10 50 50 40  
COEUR D'ALENE 95 67 95 63 83 60 / 0 10 10 50 60 50  
PULLMAN 95 61 92 57 79 55 / 10 10 10 60 50 30  
LEWISTON 101 71 98 69 89 66 / 10 20 20 50 50 30  
COLVILLE 95 57 96 55 83 53 / 10 20 10 40 70 60  
SANDPOINT 92 62 92 59 80 56 / 0 10 10 50 70 60  
KELLOGG 93 67 94 64 79 62 / 10 20 20 60 60 50  
MOSES LAKE 101 68 100 66 85 59 / 0 10 10 40 30 20  
WENATCHEE 100 75 99 72 84 66 / 10 10 30 40 40 20  
OMAK 100 69 99 67 87 63 / 0 20 20 40 50 40  
 
 
   
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING FOR EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL CASCADES (ZONE 696).  
ID...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab WA Page
The Nexlab ID Page
Main Text Page