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FXUS66 KOTX 092116
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
216 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2022
SYNOPSIS
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT BUT
DEFINITELY ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WHAT FOLLOWS IS A CLUTTERED UP
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO IS SLOWLY REMOVED FROM THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TO A VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL COOLING TREND MOISTURE
AND DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR NOT
ONLY SOME CLOUDS BUT SPRINKLES, AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES. WITH NOT VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN IN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE THUNDER HAVE
OPTED TO SMEAR OUT THE MENTION OF IT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
TIME INTERVAL. IT CAN BE SAID HOWEVER THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
OCCURS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WEAKER IN COMPARISON TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ORGANIZED, AND STRONGER, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND VICINITY POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LINEAR AND SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE THUNDER THREAT IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS HAVING A MENTION
UP OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN BY THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
VICINITY. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
MENTION GETS EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND
POSSIBLY THE SPOKANE AREA. /PELATTI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
IN NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS WEAK FORCING, A SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MUCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT A DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHER CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. /KM
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SPRINKLES AND WILL AROUND EIGHT THOUSAND TO TWELVE THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL SO WILL ALLOW THE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
IN ADDITION THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AVIATION AREA TONIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO IT IS NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. /PELATTI
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 70 94 63 93 63 96 / 20 20 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 68 92 62 92 61 97 / 20 20 20 0 0 0
PULLMAN 66 91 58 88 58 92 / 20 20 20 10 10 0
LEWISTON 76 98 68 96 68 100 / 20 20 30 10 10 0
COLVILLE 60 94 56 94 53 96 / 20 20 20 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 65 89 60 91 58 94 / 20 20 20 0 10 0
KELLOGG 70 90 66 90 67 95 / 20 20 20 10 10 0
MOSES LAKE 69 97 62 94 61 97 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 74 97 65 94 66 97 / 20 20 10 10 0 0
OMAK 69 97 65 97 62 99 / 20 30 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LEWIS
AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES.
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