422
FXUS66 KOTX 271209
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
509 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED.
- SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE CASCADE PASSES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 2500 AND
3000 FEET OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTH-CENTRAL WA. FOR THE ID
PANHANDLE, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4500 FEET. VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED, BRINGING WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE INLAND NW WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN A COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN. A DEEP CLOSED LOW DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION,
ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AS THE MID LEVEL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS 500MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY TO -30C OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WASHINGTON INTO THE
NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850MB INTO THE CASCADE CREST,
AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH ID PANHANDLE
WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. BANDS OF CONVERGENCE INTO
THE CASCADES ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WITH HREF SHOWING AROUND A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3000 FEET IN THE CASCADES FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER STEVENS AND WASHINGTON
PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTH TO OFF THE WA COAST THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. AND SOME
SUBTLE MID LEVEL DRYING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS. BELOW ARE THE NBM CHANCES FOR
VARIOUS SNOW THRESHOLDS BEING REACHED FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM THURSDAY, WHICH HAVE INCREASED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S PROBABILITIES:
MOUNTAIN PASS 2+ INCHES 4+ INCHES 6+ INCHES 8+ INCHES
STEVENS PASS 100% 95% 80% 50%
WASHINGTON PASS 100% 70% 35% 10%
SHERMAN PASS 90% 40% 1% 0%
LOOKOUT PASS 90% 50% 0% 0%
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH FOR MORE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS. ON SUNDAY THE LOW
STARTS TO PUSH OUT AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE ID PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN THIRD OF WA, INCREASING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE WINDS HAS ALLOWED MVFR AND IFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE INCLUDING AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KMWH. DRIER AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WA HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR FOR KEAT. STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HELP LIFT AND BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CONTINUED IFR AND MVFR STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 38 47 34 49 36 / 30 90 90 60 30 30
COEUR D'ALENE 49 38 44 34 48 35 / 70 100 100 90 30 30
PULLMAN 47 39 46 35 48 34 / 90 60 90 30 10 30
LEWISTON 53 43 52 38 51 38 / 80 30 70 50 10 10
COLVILLE 53 37 46 34 48 33 / 40 70 90 50 60 20
SANDPOINT 46 38 41 34 45 34 / 80 100 100 80 40 30
KELLOGG 44 37 40 33 45 34 / 90 100 100 90 10 10
MOSES LAKE 58 38 55 34 52 35 / 0 30 20 10 0 30
WENATCHEE 58 39 53 36 47 36 / 0 30 20 0 20 70
OMAK 55 37 49 35 47 34 / 0 40 60 30 60 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN
COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page