169
FXUS66 KOTX 292127
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
227 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
SYNOPSIS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTH ID AND NORTHEAST WA. COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BUILD BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NORMAL IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: THE REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A LONG
WAVE TROUGH PATTERN ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WITH A LOW OVER
CENTRAL MT. WRAP AROUND BANDS, FROM THE LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 500 PLUS J/KG. THE BEST CHANCES
ARE NORTH ID AND NORTHEAST WA WITH A 20-30% CHANCE THROUGH 11 PM
PDT. AREAS FROM THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, NORTH OF HWY 2, AND TO THE
ID/MT BORDER HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE. MAIN IMPACTS WILL GUSTY
WINDS, INFREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, THESE AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A 50%
PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OR GREATER RAINFALL. THE THREAT WILL
DECREASE HAS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL SIMILAR TO MONDAY BUT AREA WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE.
EARLY STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLEARING BY THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER WITH ONLY 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE
ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 15% FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREEZY THROUGH
THE CASCADES GAPS WITH SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS AND GUSTS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT. THE DRIER
AIR WILL COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT A OFF SHORE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO
THE REGION. IT WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND PROMOTE
A WARMING, DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLUSTERS
SHOW A QUICK MOVING TROUGH MOVING THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IT BRINGS INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES(5-10%) TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE FOR THE START OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S
AND 80S BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: WEAK RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A DRY, WARM WEEKEND FOR THE 4TH. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CLOUD FREE. FOR THOSE OUTDOORS,
REMEMBER TO HYDRATE AND PREP FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MVFR STRATUS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING FOR THE
GEG/KSFF/COE AREAS. FOR THE AFTERNOON ATTENTION TURNS TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL, AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH. A COMBINATION OF RAIN SATURATING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE IFR/MVFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING AT KPUW, KCOE. FOR KGEG/KSFF FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KEAT/KMWH. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KSFF
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN TAF AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, BUT WITH 20% CHANCES DID NOT MENTION
IN THE TAF FOR NOW. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 72 49 73 48 75 / 60 40 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 50 70 50 72 49 74 / 70 60 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 48 69 43 69 43 72 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 51 77 52 78 52 81 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 52 71 44 74 44 76 / 90 80 30 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 50 67 48 71 47 72 / 90 80 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 48 68 47 71 47 72 / 70 60 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 54 81 48 79 48 80 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 79 54 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 57 79 53 79 51 80 / 60 30 30 10 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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