002
FXUS66 KOTX 011147
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
447 AM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR HEATRISK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO
HEAT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSES A HIGH RISK FOR COLD
WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS
IN. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST SATURDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S, WITH SOME ISOLATED
AREAS SEEING 90. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE SMALL CHANCES
FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE INLAND NW WILL SEE A TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD IN WEATHER, WITH LOW PRESSURE DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST. TODAY LOOK FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS THIS
MORNING, THEN THIS AFTERNOON SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE CLOUDS TO INCREASE. THE WEATHER REMAINS
DRY. HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AS THE LOW DROP SOUTH. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES TO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A
LIMITED RISK FOR T-STORMS. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY TOWARD
SOUTHEAST WA/LOWER ID, BUT MODELS ARE NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE SO MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, THOUGH WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ADJUSTMENTS NEAR FAR SOUTHEAST WA AND
LOWER ID SUNDAY WHERE SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY HANG UP. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH THE LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AROUND THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 20-25 MPH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S TODAY AND WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S AND 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING NEAR 90 IN THE DEEPER BASIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-40S
TO MID-50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND THIS HEAT MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH HEAT
SENSITIVITIES.
ADDITIONALLY THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE
WARM WEATHER, RATHER DRY MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST WITH
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID-TEENS TO MID-20S OVER THE GOOD
PORTION OF THE LOWLANDS. THESE WILL BE LOWEST IN THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES, OKANOGAN VALLEY AND DEEPER BASIN. SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DAYS TO MONITOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, GIVEN THE
HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANY FIRE STARTS COULD SPREAD,
THOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE SEASON, SO THE MAIN RISKS WILL
BE IN GRASSY AREAS.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: HEADING FURTHER INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK,
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXIT AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER INCREASE ARE FORECAST
TOWARD THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES TO COAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-70S AND 80S AND STILL SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY PUSHING 90 IN
THE DEEPER BASIN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME TOWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THAT NEXT
TROUGH WITH GUSTS 15-30 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE
CASCADES/WATERVILLE PLATEAU. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN, INCREASING
FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE COMES IN WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 74 49 77 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 73 47 76 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 72 48 76 49 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 78 50 80 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 76 45 81 46 82 46 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 71 47 74 48 76 47 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
KELLOGG 72 48 75 50 76 49 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 80 52 84 53 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 78 57 81 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 78 51 82 51 84 52 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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