033
FXUS66 KOTX 010520
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1020 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MID WEEK. WETTER CONDITIONS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND OKANOGAN VALLEY MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM BLOWING DUST.
SYNOPSIS
WARMING, DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 80S. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, BREEZY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE WARM,
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL 80S TO LOW 90S. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALIZED VIS AND AIR QUALITY
IMPACTS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER MT.
THE SHIFT WILL USHER IN BREEZY SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH OREGON AND INTO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DESTABILIZING MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A 15%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUE MTNS INTO THE
PALOUSE, L-C VALLEY, CAMAS PRAIRIE, AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
IDAHO PANHANDLE. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING STRONG OUTFLOW WIND POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING INTO
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTH IDAHO. MOISTURE ALSO WILL
INCREASE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY WETTER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST CONTINUES TO DIG AND
CLOSES OFF WITH AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY BETWEEN
MOSES LAKE TO OMAK AND OROVILLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH.
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SHOWERS AND WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BASIN.
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WETTING. ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL SEE A
GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OVER THIS PERIOD, AND THESE SAME AREAS WILL SEE A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A QUARTER OF INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WELL
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY
THURSDAY. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT LEAST IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE CLOSED
LOW BEING CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR JET OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE OFF THE OREGON COAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
THE WET PATTERN WITH A PUSH OF WARM AIR. INCREASED INSTABILITY
BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THREATS. NORTHERN VALLEY LOWS
COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING TONIGHT, WITH MORE MIDDLE CLOUDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY. A WAVE PASSING BY THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING
SOME SHOWERS BETWEEN 18-01Z OVER EASTERN WA/ID, INCLUDING
KGEG,KSFF,KCOE,KPUW,KLWS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SMOKE AND HAZE
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CASCADES VALLEYS PRIMARILY DOWN THE
ENTIAT RIVER DRAINAGE AND LAKE CHELAN, AND NORTH OF THE
WENATCHEE AIRPORT (KEAT). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT, THEN SOME
MARGINAL BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
NEAR 15KTS OR SO POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. A
LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR SOME SMOKE AND HAZE TO
FILTER DOWN DRAINAGE INTO KEAT, BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW 5SM. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS BETWEEN
18Z TUESDAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 85 53 71 49 66 / 0 0 40 80 80 60
COEUR D'ALENE 53 87 52 69 49 66 / 0 0 50 80 70 80
PULLMAN 49 81 44 69 42 64 / 0 10 40 80 80 70
LEWISTON 58 86 57 74 55 70 / 0 10 30 80 70 80
COLVILLE 43 86 44 70 40 65 / 0 0 20 60 80 90
SANDPOINT 47 86 46 66 42 63 / 0 0 40 80 70 90
KELLOGG 52 87 49 66 47 63 / 0 0 40 90 70 90
MOSES LAKE 55 84 54 75 49 69 / 0 0 20 20 70 40
WENATCHEE 63 87 62 75 58 68 / 0 0 20 20 70 60
OMAK 55 87 55 75 52 68 / 0 0 30 40 70 80
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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