481  
FXUS66 KOTX 051725  
AFDOTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA  
1025 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MORNING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE  
CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
- INCREASED WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH  
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. WARMING AND DRYING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
INCREASING WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO BRING INCREASED  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY-TONIGHT: A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST OUT OF THE INLAND NW  
TODAY. MORNING SHOWERS OVER NORTH IDAHO AND FAR EASTERN WA WILL  
DISSIPATE AROUND MIDDAY WITH AREAS OF SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE  
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL BC WILL  
PROVIDE A RENEWED AREA OF LIFT, INTERACTING WITH (100-500 K/KG)  
SBCAPE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER RESULTING IN REDEVELOPING  
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A BULK OF THE CAPE WILL BE CENTERED BELOW  
-10C WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING AND HREF  
CALIBRATED LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10-20%  
ACROSS NORTHERN OKANOGAN, FERRY, STEVENS, PEND OREILLE, AND  
BOUNDARY COUNTY. CELLS IN NORTHERN OKANOGAN/FERRY COUNTY WOULD  
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING THREAT FOR POINTS EASTWARD. CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL  
TRACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BACK INTO CANADA AROUND 15-20  
MPH. FOR CENTRAL WA AND MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, THE MAIN  
STORY WILL BE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20  
MPH COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.  
WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE RIVER VALLEYS AND ON TO THE  
WATERVILLE PLATEAU WILL INCREASE FURTHER BY THE EVENING WITH  
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. CLEAR SKIES RETURN  
REGION- WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING HOUR BY HOUR,  
BECOMING LIGHT AND UNDER 10 MPH PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY: ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HEIGHT  
RISES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER  
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST HIGH  
TEMPERATURES HAVE COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY FOR  
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING  
TO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S BY TUESDAY. HEAT RISK INDICATORS  
RAMP UP FROM MINOR HEAT RISK SUNDAY INTO MODERATE HEAT RISK  
MONDAY AND MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK TUESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY,  
FOLKS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF SUMMER HEAT.  
 
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND LOWER  
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO  
CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. CONCERNS INCREASE GOING  
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND  
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE HEAT. THERE ARE SEVERAL VARIATIONS IN  
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES HOW THIS WILL TRANSPIRE WHICH WILL HAVE  
MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS ON TIMING OF WINDS AND ALIGNMENT WITH THE  
DRIEST HUMIDITIES. GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FOR  
GAP WINDS TO BEGIN TO BLEED THROUGH STARTING ON TUESDAY, MOST  
LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY, 75% OF THE  
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MORE PRONOUNCED FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE.  
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS PATTERN  
RECOGNITION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
DAY. LOOKING INTO SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS FROM THE EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLES, ALL BUT 2 OF 50 ENS MEMBERS HAVE GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR  
STRONGER AT WENATCHEE AP AND 25-30 MPH FOR LOCATIONS LIKE MOSES  
LAKE, SPOKANE, AND PULLMAN. GEFS IS NOT AS STRONG AT THIS TIME  
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HOT, DRY, WINDY PLOTS THAT RANGE  
FROM THE VALUES OF 500 TO 100 OR 95TH PERCENTILE TO 25TH  
PERCENTILE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY TO  
WATCH VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS!  
 
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: DETAILS FOR LATE WEEK HEADING INTO  
THE WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE  
PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF RIDGING AND TROUGHS. GENERAL CONSENSUS  
IS FOR A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES AROUND THURSDAY THEN WARMING  
BACK UP FOR 1-3 DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER DIP HOWEVER TIMING THE WAVES  
AND DEPTHS IS PROVING VERY CHALLENGING AND RESULTING IN LARGE  
SPREADS IN THE TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES.  
PROJECTED HIGHS VARY ANYWHERE FROM THE LOW 80S TO LOW 100S.  
WHILE SOME ENSEMBLES INDICATE RIBBONS OF MOISTURE AT TIMES, ITS  
HARD TO EXCITED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE  
THIS TIME. AS EACH WARMING PERIOD BREAKS DOWN, IT IS LIKELY THAT  
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF WINDS SO OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE WE WILL  
REMAIN IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE FIRE DANGER INDICES UNTIL THERE IS EVIDENCE OTHERWISE.  
/SB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAFS: THE SHOWERS WE SAW OVERNIGHT FROM MOISTURE WRAPPING  
AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.  
CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 6-8K FT AGL WITH FEW-SCT COVERAGE AS  
LOW AS 2.5K FT AGL. AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEE A  
RENEWED THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND SMALL THREAT FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS (20%) BETWEEN 21-03Z. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
REGIONWIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INFREQUENT AFTERNOON  
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE  
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PUW  
FOR WHICH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MAIN  
THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
WILL BE FROM OROVILLE TO BONNERS FERRY.  
 
-----------------------  
 
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:  
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE  
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE  
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE  
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR  
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SPOKANE 80 56 85 56 92 60 / 40 0 0 0 0 0  
COEUR D'ALENE 76 55 85 56 90 60 / 60 10 0 0 0 0  
PULLMAN 76 49 82 51 89 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0  
LEWISTON 85 60 91 61 98 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 0  
COLVILLE 79 47 85 48 90 51 / 40 10 0 0 0 0  
SANDPOINT 72 51 81 49 88 55 / 70 10 0 0 0 0  
KELLOGG 72 57 80 58 87 63 / 50 10 0 0 0 0  
MOSES LAKE 87 55 90 57 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
WENATCHEE 87 60 90 63 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
OMAK 86 56 89 58 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WA...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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