969
FXUS66 KOTX 041052
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
352 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, WASHINGTON
CENTRAL BASIN AND NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE PURCELL TRENCH ON
MONDAY.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES POSES A HIGH RISK FOR COLD
WATER SHOCK AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE WHO UNEXPECTEDLY FALLS
IN. WEAR A LIFE JACKET IF RECREATING ON OR NEAR THE WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. EXPECT SOME BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FROM CANADA. LONGER RANGE PREDICTIONS FAVOR ELEVATED
CHANCES OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE SMALL CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE NEAR CANADA
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A RIDGE EDGING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. VARIABLE MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS SLIP OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT
THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER OF THESE ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASIN. WINDS ABATE TONIGHT AND START TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING
BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GUSTS NEAR
20-30 MPH AGAIN. TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE 70S AND 80S, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY: THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SHORTWAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY LATER
WEDNESDAY, THEN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN COMES FOR THURSDAY TO
SUNDAY. THE AREA REMAINS LARGELY DRY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS, BUT
A BIT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS IN THE FORECAST. THE WAVE
PASSING WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES
OVER NORTH IDAHO AND ALONG THE ID/MT BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY. SOME
SHOWER CHANCES LINGER NEAR THIS AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TOO.
THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE OF THE PASSING WAVE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
SURGE IN WINDS BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN. SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THERE, WITH GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 60-80%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND 25–40% CHANCE OF
GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND DRY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 80S, WITH SOME AREAS NEAR 90 IN
THE DEEPER BASIN; RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID-20S IN
THIS STRONGER WIND AREA. SO WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN.
OTHER MINOR MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT PASSING WAVE, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT REMAINS DRY. YET WINDS ALSO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH
THAT WAVE, WITH THE FORECAST SHOWING SPEEDS OF 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 20-40 MPH AND LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LEE OF CASCADES INTO THE WESTERN BASIN
AND NEAR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 50-90% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER, A 30-70% OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER, AND 20-50% CHANCE OF 50 MPH OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY. IT
REMAINS BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TOO, BUT NOT AS STRONG. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID-70S TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY, COOL TO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN WARM UP AGAIN TOWARD SUNDAY.
/SOLVEIG
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE WEEK. FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE, COEUR D'ALENE AREA AS A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. YET SOME OF THE RECENT MODELS
SHOW GUSTS A LITTLE LOWER (10-15 KTS), SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE
GUSTS SPEEDS AND TIMING CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 76 49 72 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 74 46 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 75 47 70 46 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 80 50 76 49 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 80 45 77 44 82 46 / 10 10 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 70 45 67 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
KELLOGG 72 45 67 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 85 53 82 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 85 58 82 57 85 56 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 84 53 82 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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