815
FXUS66 KOTX 151817
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1017 AM PST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW IMPACT AND UNSETTLED WET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY. THEN ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE SHOWING A MORE
WESTERLY-ZONAL FLOW AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO. THE CASCADES ARE
ALSO RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LOSE
SOME OF THAT MOISTURE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND AS SUCH WE'LL
SEE A BREAK IN THE VALLEY RAIN FOR MANY LOW-LAND AREAS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THIS TIME, THE AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND WITH HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS, ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN AT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AGAIN REMAIN MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE
50S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AND BEGIN TO INTRODUCE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
THERE REMAINS QUITE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEK, MORE
NOTABLE FOR TUESDAY AND AGAIN BY FRIDAY, AS FAR AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE COOLER AIR MASS AND THE PRECIPITATION (TYPE AND AMOUNT).
RELYING ON THE ENSEMBLE SUITE OF MODELS, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE FRIDAY WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRING LOWER SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK,
THOUGH REMAINING AROUND 3000-4000 FEET. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE COMMON, AS HAS SEEMED TO BE COMMON THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. MOST OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST (OUTSIDE OF GRANT
COUNTY) WILL HAVE GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. NORTH IDAHO, FROM ST
MARIES TO BONNERS FERRY HAS GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF SEEING
MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION, AND THE
CASCADE CREST (WESTERN CHELAN AND OKANOGAN COUNTIES) HAS GREATER
THAN 75% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY SO MORE
BENEFICIAL AND LOW IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEK. /DEWEY
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VARYING LEVELS OF CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TODAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT
IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CEILINGS AT AIRPORTS. THIS
WILL INCLUDE KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AS LOW CLOUDS EXPAND OUT OF THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO THESE AIRPORTS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL DECREASE AND DISSIPATION OF THIS
CLOUD COVER YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH RAIN INCREASING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1,500 AND 3,500 FT AGL GIVES MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z HREF MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND/OR CLOUDS
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22-02Z FROM KPUW EARLIER IN THE DAY THEN INTO
KGEG/KSFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE
AFTER 02Z BEFORE KCOE WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT AND VFR CONDITIONS.
/SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 42 55 42 50 36 / 20 20 30 60 70 50
COEUR D'ALENE 54 42 53 43 50 39 / 50 30 30 70 80 80
PULLMAN 56 41 53 42 50 36 / 50 10 40 80 80 70
LEWISTON 61 44 55 47 55 42 / 30 0 50 80 70 60
COLVILLE 54 38 52 38 50 33 / 30 50 50 60 80 70
SANDPOINT 50 40 52 41 48 38 / 80 60 50 70 90 90
KELLOGG 50 43 54 45 49 40 / 90 30 40 90 100 90
MOSES LAKE 60 43 57 42 54 34 / 0 20 20 30 20 20
WENATCHEE 60 47 55 45 55 38 / 10 30 20 40 20 20
OMAK 55 43 53 44 52 38 / 10 20 30 30 30 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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