983
FXUS66 KOTX 161751
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
951 AM PST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW IMPACT AND UNSETTLED WET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION STARTS IN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES COOLING CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
WHILE THE FIRST IS A SERIES OF SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, CARRYING
WITH IT EXPANDING RAIN AND MOSTLY HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. A WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN LIFTING IN OVERNIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE COAST. THAT FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN
LATER TODAY INTO TODAY, TAPPING INTO A MODEST MOISTURE FETCH OF
AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER IT WILL BE STRETCHING AS IT DOES,
LIMITING ITS OVERALL STRENGTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, THEN START TO
EXPAND IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCE REMAIN HIGH OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN AREA THAT WILL SEE LOWER POPS WILL BE IN THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES/CENTRAL WA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET OR
HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY; THOUGH THEY DO START TO LOWER FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, REACHING BETWEEN
4000-6000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN SOME LIGHT
SNOW AROUND WASHINGTON PASS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT GENERALLY A INCH OR LESS. OTHER PASSES ARE MAINLY EXPECTED
TO RAIN OR MAYBE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS AROUND STEVENS PASS. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH, EXCEPT IN THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES/CENTRAL WA WHICH WILL SEE GENERALLY LESS
THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE 50S TODAY AND THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: THE REGION REMAINS IN THE SPLIT FLOW, WITH
A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STRETCHING
AND/OR SPLITTING AS THEY COME IN. SOME DETAILS ARE STILL COMING
TOGETHER AND CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT FALTERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH MODELS DIVERGE OVER WHETHER THE JET STREAM IS
NORTH OF AREA OVER OVER THE AREA. AT IS STANDS NOW,ONE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING MODEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND MOUNTAIN ZONES,
BEFORE RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT IT ALSO SPLITS AND STRETCHES
LIMITING IT STRENGTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES IN ELSEWHERE. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK MODELS TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY WITH A BIT
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT STILL LIMITED AMOUNTS. THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL WA WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS IT
REMAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW AND HOLDS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK.
SNOW LEVELS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3800-5000 FEET THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, LOWEST NEAR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE ONE
PERIOD THEY LOOK HIGHER IS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHEN THEY SIT NEAR 4500-5500 FEET. THIS WILL MEAN MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN, BUT SOME SNOW MAY MIX DOWN TO
THE LOWLANDS SOME MORNINGS ACROSS THE EAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN SNOW LARGELY LEAN LIGHTER, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE PASSING SYSTEMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS. A BIT MORE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD LATE NEXT SATURDAY NEAR THE
CASCADES, BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACKS BY THAT POINT
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND IMPACTED IS LIMITED. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S, WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE L-C VALLEY AND
DEEPER BASIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S,
WITH THE COLDEST MORNINGS RIGHT NOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
/SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS INCLUDING
WINTHROP, OMAK, COLVILLE, SANDPOINT, AND BONNERS FERRY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADS NORTH OUT
OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST UNDER STEADY LIGHT RAIN.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 01-04Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE HREF SHOWS
AN 80% CHANCE OR HIGHER OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KPUW AFTER
04Z-05Z MONDAY AS PERSIST RAIN AND LIGHT UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS BRING A QUICK DROP IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 45 52 40 47 34 / 50 90 60 50 50 20
COEUR D'ALENE 54 45 51 42 48 36 / 40 90 80 70 70 50
PULLMAN 55 44 53 39 46 34 / 80 90 80 60 60 40
LEWISTON 56 48 56 44 52 39 / 80 90 60 50 40 30
COLVILLE 53 39 52 38 49 29 / 30 80 60 70 70 40
SANDPOINT 53 43 49 41 47 34 / 30 90 90 80 80 70
KELLOGG 56 46 50 43 49 38 / 60 90 90 80 80 70
MOSES LAKE 56 45 54 40 52 30 / 30 50 20 30 20 0
WENATCHEE 55 46 55 43 51 35 / 20 40 30 40 10 0
OMAK 54 44 52 42 50 34 / 20 30 30 40 30 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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