718
FXUS66 KOTX 201057
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
357 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
- BREEZY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND STILL PUSHING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY, WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY CALM EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS
DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER 20 MPH RANGE. OMAK HAS A 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE MIDWEEK HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. OVERNIGHT
PATCHY FROST COULD IMPACT ANY REMAINING GARDENS AND SENSITIVE
SEASONAL PLANTS.
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE LOW FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST
TOWARD MONTANA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WRAP AROUND BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST WA AND
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A 40-80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH. A TROUGH PATTERN
WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.
FRIDAY WILL HAVE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEENS WITH GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE FOR MOST. WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST WA HAVE A 20-40
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING 40 MPH GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN 50S TO LOW
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING ON THE INCOMING LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE 3-7 DAY
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEAR 50/50 SPLIT ON WHETHER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER A FLAT RIDGE OR WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOW.
THE CONSENSUS IS KEEPING THE PRECIP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. IF THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES, THE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY START TO DECLINE. SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BACK
COUNTRY TREKKERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR COLD, POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10K FT
AGL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PURCELL TRENCH OF NORTH IDAHO
THIS MORNING. GUSTS UP 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT KOMK BEFORE
20Z. LIGHTER WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH WILL REACH KMWH-KCOE. THE
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN
REGION-WIDE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A
FEW HOURS OF GUSTS AROUND 15KTS AT KCOE AND KMWH.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 68 40 67 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 40 60
COEUR D'ALENE 68 40 68 41 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 40 70
PULLMAN 68 38 68 41 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 60 70
LEWISTON 68 43 70 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 70 80
COLVILLE 67 31 69 32 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
SANDPOINT 66 36 66 37 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
KELLOGG 69 41 69 43 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 50 80
MOSES LAKE 69 36 68 36 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
WENATCHEE 67 44 68 46 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 68 39 69 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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