402
FXUS66 KOTX 132323
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
423 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON,
PARTICULARLY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S COUPLED
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK, DRIVING
A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PERSISTENT BREEZY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON. BY MIDWEEK, A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST, KEEPING CONDITIONS HOT AND (MOSTLY) DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL
PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION
BY TUESDAY; 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN MID-JULY AVERAGES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM, RANGING THROUGHOUT THE
60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS
INCLUDING WENATCHEE, OMAK, COULEE CITY, AND MATTAWA WILL
STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL PUSH HEATRISK INTO
THE "MODERATE" CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODERATE
HEATRISK IMPACTS INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HEAT, PARTICULARLY
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
IN ADDITION TO HOT TEMPERATURES, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, SUBSIDING MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN PICKING UP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH. BREEZY WINDS PAIRED WITH HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIA UP TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ACT AS A PIPELINE FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE, USHERING A
DISTINCT PLUME OF MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE INCOMING
MOISTURE WILL DRIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL OVER SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE CENTRAL ID
PANHANDLE, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THESE AREAS
TUESDAY EVENING, THOUGH THERE IS NOTABLE VARIABILITY REGARDING
THE NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE
SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE, WHILE OTHERS SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN
THIRD OF WASHINGTON. ON WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES
NORTHWARD OVER THE CASCADES, BRINGING A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, MUCH OF THIS INITIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FALL AS VIRGA (EVAPORATING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE GROUND), THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS SUBSTANTIALLY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE 53 PERCENT OF MEMBERS ARE IN
FAVOR OF THE OFFSHORE TROUGH SWINGING INLAND. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO PLAY OUT, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, 25 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLES
ARE LEANING TOWARD A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO IN WHICH THE TROUGH
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
CONTINUES TO WARM OUR TEMPERATURES. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A
LOWER THUNDERSTORM THREAT BUT NOTABLY HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RISING INTO TRIPLE DIGITS. THE
REMAINING 22 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLES ARE GOING FOR A SOLUTION
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY AND BEYOND, MODEL SOLUTIONS RE-CONVERGE
ON A HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK IS IN AGREEMENT, INDICATING A 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
/FEWKES
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WA, THOUGH THIS
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) AND THUNDERSTORMS
(10%) TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
KLWS/KPUW/KCOE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEAT WHICH MAY SEE 10KT NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 17Z TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS ID TUESDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 93 60 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 62 91 63 91 61 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
PULLMAN 56 87 55 88 54 91 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
LEWISTON 66 93 65 96 63 98 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
COLVILLE 54 93 57 93 56 94 / 0 10 0 10 20 20
SANDPOINT 62 90 62 89 61 93 / 0 0 10 30 10 10
KELLOGG 60 87 60 87 58 91 / 0 10 10 20 0 10
MOSES LAKE 60 96 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 10 30 20
WENATCHEE 66 97 69 95 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 30 40
OMAK 62 98 66 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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