090
FXUS66 KOTX 230852
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1252 AM PST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS
WEEK.
- TRENDING WARMER AND WETTER THIS WEEK, WITH LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- MODERATE RAINS FOR THE PALOUSE LEADING TO RISES ON RIVERS,
CREEKS, AND STREAM ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER IN FIELDS.
- GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES COULD BE CHALLENGING THIS MORNING AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. DUE TO
MODERATING TEMPERATURES, SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE RAIN. THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING CONTINUED ROUNDS OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN. CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PNW COAST
CONTINUES TO BRING LOWER HEIGHTS INTO OUR AREA. THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, WE'LL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO MORE MOISTURE, WITH PWATS RISING
TO 150-200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATER IN THE DAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND 10-15MPH GUSTS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD CHANCES (50% AND ABOVE) OF SEEING 0.10 INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE SPOKANE, COEUR D'ALENE, PULLMAN,
LEWISTON, AND IDAHO PANHANDLE AREAS HAVE A 40% CHANCE AND ABOVE AT
SEEING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLASHIER AREAS
LIKE PARADISE CREEK, WHICH IS FORECAST TO GET WITHIN A FOOT OF
BANKFULL. NO AREAS AS OF RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
BANKFULL, THOUGH WE WILL MONITOR ALL OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS
CLOSELY. SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN NORMAL, SNOW
WILL INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTED SNOW FOR
BOTH LOOKOUT AND STEVENS PASSES SHOW TOTALS RIGHT AROUND
ADVISORY LEVELS (6-8 INCHES). STEVENS PASS ALSO HAS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF SEEING 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES. FOR THIS REASON, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE PASSES. THE
ADVISORY WILL END LATER THIS MORNING FOR STEVENS PASS, AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOOKOUT PASS. EXPECT WINTRY DRIVING
CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS
SHOULD SNOWFALL RATES APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR, AND PLAN ON ANY
MORNING COMMUTES TAKING A LONGER TIME.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
REGIONWIDE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. ON WEDNESDAY, WIND GUTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35-40MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY, MODELS SEEM TO BE GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH,
BUT CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A 40%
CHANCE OF SEEING MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45MPH. SINCE 45MPH
IS ONE OF OUR MAIN THRESHOLDS FOR A WIND ADVISORY, SHOULD TRENDS
PERSIST, WIND HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. TRAVELERS SHOULD EXPECT
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
ELSEWHERE, BLOWING OBJECTS AND LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE COULD OCCUR.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE FALLING ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH STEVENS PASS
HAVING A 50-60% CHANCE OF SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKOUT PASS HAS A 30% CHANCE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES OF SNOW. BOTTOM LINE FOR TRAVELERS ALONG
MOUNTAIN PASSES: EXPECT CONTINUED WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS, AND
ANTICIPATE NEEDING EXTRA DRIVING TIME. LOWLAND AREAS WILL SEE MORE
THAN A TRACE (0.01 INCHES), BUT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE 0.10 INCHES. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER
SNOW LEVELS, PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGHOUT THE LOWLANDS CONTINUES TO
BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A BREAK IN SHOWERS
FOR THE LOWLANDS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN LOWER TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH OVERALL TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PWATS WILL DRY TO 50-60% OF NORMAL. THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK REFLECTS THIS WEEKEND TREND, WITH CHANCES FOR NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MINIMAL.
/AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA, WHICH RADAR INDICATING
ALL TERMINALS SEEING RAIN BY 07Z. WITH THIS PRECIPITATION,
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES DROP DOWN TO MVFR. HOWEVER, TIMING FOR
CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY BEFORE IN EAT'S PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS
GONE DOWN, AS THERMAL PROFILES HAVE WARMED AND HREF NOW SHOWS
PURELY RAIN TO START THE TAF PERIOD OFF. AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT, EAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO LLWS FOR GEG, SFF, AND PUW.
ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, GUSTS TO 20 MPH EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS DROPPING TO
MVFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR LLWS AT GEG, SFF, AND PUW. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 33 42 30 43 31 / 90 40 50 60 20 10
COEUR D'ALENE 44 32 42 31 43 31 / 100 50 60 70 50 30
PULLMAN 42 34 41 32 41 31 / 90 90 90 90 40 10
LEWISTON 50 38 45 37 50 33 / 80 90 90 90 30 10
COLVILLE 44 25 41 26 41 29 / 90 10 30 40 20 20
SANDPOINT 42 30 40 31 39 31 / 100 50 40 70 70 50
KELLOGG 42 33 40 33 38 32 / 100 90 70 90 70 50
MOSES LAKE 47 34 44 29 49 31 / 60 30 50 30 0 0
WENATCHEE 44 33 41 31 45 32 / 80 30 50 30 10 10
OMAK 46 28 42 29 45 31 / 70 10 20 20 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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