716
FXUS66 KOTX 131151
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
451 AM PDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS MONDAY FOR NORTH IDAHO AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON.
- A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO DELIVER VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW,
AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. AREAS OF CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WA. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS,
MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME SNOW BE
FOUND IN THE LOWLANDS ON THE TAIL END OF THAT SYSTEM HEADING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE INLAND NW WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW WITH CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN, ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LINGERING T-STORM CHANCES. A DEFORMATION
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND ID WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY. THAT FEATURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, THEN START TO MOVE OUT. THE
STEADIER RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST WA AND ID,
SHIFTING TOWARD NE WA AND ID PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WANING
OVERNIGHT. OTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE AT THE CASCADE
CREST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE OVER IDAHO,
ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CENTRAL WA WILL
BE LARGELY DRY. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER NE WA AND NORTH ID, WITH MAINLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE INT EH MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE CASCADE CREST, BUT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. LASTLY WINDS OF
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST. LOCALLY STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND NEAR THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF AK DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ENVELOPING THE AREA IN COLDER
WEATHER AND MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
BECOMING LIKELY IN THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON AND OVER MOST OF THE REMAINING CWA TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WA
WHERE THE SHADOWING WILL KEEP POPS TO AROUND 40-50%, HIGHEST
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES START TO
WANE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TOO SMALL TO SHOW UP IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, BU SOMETHING TO WATCH. IT IS NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
THAT THE MAIN CHANCE SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADE CREST AND ID
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3.5-4.5KFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON DROP
TO 2-3KFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 1-1.5KFT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SO LOOK FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN TO START, CHANGING TO
A LOWLAND MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO WANE BY THEN,
BUT IT STILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE
LOWLANDS THAT TIME FRAME.
THE BIGGEST SNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY MORNING
(48-HOURS):
2 4 6 8 12
STEVENS PASS 100% 98% 90% 70% 25%
SNOQUALMIE PASS 96% 80% 65% 45% 15%
LOOKOUT PASS 100% 85% 55% 40% 15%
SHERMAN PASS 60% 25% 15% 10% 3%
THE CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCHES AT SELECT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM: PULLMAN 60%,
SANDPOINT 55%, SPOKANE 20%.
RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES ARE FORECAST AROUND THE
EAST THIRD OF WA AND ID, WITH HIGH AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AROUND SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS AND LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND FIELD FLOODING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS TUESDAY AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH. WINDS TURN
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
BUT GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER COMES IN
FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INCREASING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY LOW STAYS OFF THE COAST SO POPS
ARE 20-40%, UP TO NEAR 60% AT THE IMMEDIATE CASCADE CREST. IT
WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
/SOLVEIG
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW WILL
TREND TOWARDS VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KT.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z-03Z FOR
KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 60 37 52 38 48 29 / 50 10 30 90 70 40
COEUR D'ALENE 55 38 50 38 46 30 / 70 20 40 100 80 70
PULLMAN 53 36 52 39 44 29 / 80 10 10 90 90 70
LEWISTON 57 38 58 44 51 34 / 90 10 0 90 90 70
COLVILLE 65 36 53 34 52 28 / 50 20 70 100 60 40
SANDPOINT 54 38 47 37 45 29 / 80 50 70 100 90 70
KELLOGG 50 37 48 37 42 29 / 90 30 50 100 100 80
MOSES LAKE 65 37 58 39 55 32 / 10 0 10 30 30 10
WENATCHEE 61 42 55 38 52 34 / 0 0 20 50 20 10
OMAK 67 39 56 37 54 32 / 0 0 40 60 30 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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