777
FXUS66 KOTX 110810
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
110 AM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES NEED TO TAKE CAUTION.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEK OVER THE CASCADE AND
NORTH IDAHO MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AS WELL WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE IMPACTS FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) ARE
STARTING TO BE FELT THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND INCREASING
WINDS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW: RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING HAVE BLOSSOMED AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH, BUT THE KOTX SOUNDING FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED 40-60% RH IN THE PROFILE THROUGH 7500
FEET. THIS FIRST ROUND WILL BE FAIRLY UNNOTEWORTHY WITH ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOW FALLING BEFORE SUNRISE ON THE PALOUSE AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE VALLEYS AND AN INCH OR TWO AT LOOKOUT PASS.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A WAVE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE VALLEYS.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, SNOW IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN IN
THE CASCADE VALLEYS, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, PALOUSE, SPOKANE AREA,
AND THE ID PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR AROUND A TRACE
TO 3 INCHES IN THE PLAIN/LEAVENWORTH/STEHEKIN BEFORE NOON
TODAY. PULLMAN, SANDPOINT, KELLOGG WILL ALSO SEE AROUND A TRACE
TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR AT STEVENS PASS FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 6 PM WITH THE BEST
PWATS OF THE AR (200-250% OF NORMAL) CENTERED OVER IT. LOOKOUT
PASS WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.5-1 INCH PER
HOUR AROUND 3-11 PM AS THE MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND. SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AT THE
PASSES AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING AND EVEN GO ABOVE
FREEZING. THERE IS A 50/50 SHOT STEVENS PASS BRIEFLY CHANGES TO
RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING (6-9 PM). HEAVY WET
SNOW AND HIGH WINDS WILL POSE A MUCH GREATER THAN NORMAL RISK
FOR WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AT THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. OVERALL
STEVENS PASS CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AND LOOKOUT CAN EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES.
WIND: WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS
UP NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MIGRATES EAST INTO SW AB LATE THIS
EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE LOW
AROUND 990-994 MB IN SW AB THIS EVENING, SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS
ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN PLAY. THE SETUP STILL LOOKS QUITE POTENT
WITH A 160-170 KT 250 MB JET STREAK ALONG THE WA/BC BORDER. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH INCREASES THE RISK OF HIGH WINDS MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OVERALL THE REGION CAN EXPECT TO SEE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-45 MPH GUSTING AROUND 40-70 MPH. I AM
MOST CONCERNED TO SEE 60+ MPH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
SPOKANE AREA, AND ID PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN ON RECENTLY WORKED FIELDS IN THE
MOSES LAKE AREA AND THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU. THE SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY PEELS OUT THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME
WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH. STEVENS PASS AND LOOKOUT PASS CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY SNOW ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTH ID. DETAILS ARE MUDDY STILL BUT MODELS HAVE THE
REGION IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE AR SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. THE DRIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES LOOK
WARMER THIS PERIOD, SO RAIN ON SNOW WILL BE OF CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR, PERHAPS IFR
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS ARE AT KGEG-KSFF-
KCOE-KPUW BETWEEN 17Z-4Z (70-95% CHANCE) WITH PRECIP COMING
THROUGH. THOSE CHANCES DECREASE TO 50-60% FOR IFR CIGS. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AROUND 15-16Z FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN QUICKLY AROUND 18-21Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
KEAT WILL ALSO HAVE RAIN MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN BC. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AFTER 6Z, INCREASING
WINDS EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN FOR EASTERN WA AND NORTH
ID TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 37 46 34 46 31 / 80 80 40 70 70 70
COEUR D'ALENE 45 37 46 33 43 30 / 100 90 70 90 90 80
PULLMAN 44 39 45 36 43 34 / 100 90 90 100 90 90
LEWISTON 50 45 53 41 51 40 / 90 90 90 100 90 90
COLVILLE 46 35 49 30 47 26 / 80 80 40 50 70 40
SANDPOINT 41 35 44 31 41 30 / 100 100 80 90 90 80
KELLOGG 41 35 41 34 40 33 / 100 100 90 100 100 100
MOSES LAKE 54 40 52 35 52 32 / 40 40 20 40 50 40
WENATCHEE 48 39 47 35 48 32 / 80 80 60 50 70 50
OMAK 47 35 51 31 48 28 / 70 80 40 40 50 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN
COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO
PALOUSE-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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