875
FXUS66 KOTX 160559
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
959 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FOR VALLEYS MONDAY TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PERIODIC HIT AND MISS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SYNOPSIS
A ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS TRANSITIONING TO ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: BROAD SCALE POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS BRINGING PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF US-395 AND
ALONG/SOUTH I-90 THIS AFTERNOON. CHANGES USHER IN TONIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
DIVES SOUTH, BRINGING INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW INTO THE
INLAND NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PACKING MONDAY MORNING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, LEADING TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BAND OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA IN THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE EXACTLY THE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL DICTATE THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF THE BAND, BUT CONFIDENCE HAS GENERALLY INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY THAT THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND
MOUNTAINS OF FAR NE WA/N ID ARE THE BEST SPOTS TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS ROUND (GENERALLY 1-5” WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS). SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINAL ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND THE LOWER AREAS OF THE
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS, SO ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LIMITED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWLANDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 IN NORTHEAST WA. IF NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT EARLIER
AROUND SUNRISE, AN ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST WA AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW 100-500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY THANKS TO STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THE PUZZLE REVOLVES AROUND ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSAGE IN THE INW TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW FOCUSED IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND NORTH ID AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGS STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. POCKETS OF 1+”/HR
SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WA ON THE PALOUSE AND NORTH ID
WHERE TEMPERATURES IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL FAST ENOUGH.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE ON THE CAMAS PRAIRIE,
IDAHO PALOUSE, AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS (2-5”). THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST
NEAR THE CREST OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH FAVORS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
SPOKANE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST IN EASTERN MONTANA,
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NORTHWEST TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE WITH
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -38C. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS AREAS OF PERIODIC SHORT LIVED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AND WILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT NOWCASTING.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OF A VERY DEEP
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC. UNFORTUNATELY WITH HOW FAR
WEST IT IS CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST, BUT OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE SOME INCREMENTAL
IMPROVEMENTS TO OUR ABYSMAL SNOWPACK ARE ALWAYS WELCOME. DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COE, WHICH IS AT LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN AND EXPECTED TO STAY LIKE THAT THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BRIEFLY, BUT THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
AROUND 03Z. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH
AROUND 09Z, THOUGH LINGERING ECHOES AROUND THE GEG/SFF AREA GIVE
THESE TERMINALS A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN BEFORE THEN. CEILINGS WILL
DROP TO IFR/LIFR AS THE RAIN PASSES THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES
START COOLING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BY
01-03Z, RAIN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR GEG,
SFF, COE, AND PUW. THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL EARLIER FOR
MWH/EAT, LEADING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND 18-21Z. LWS IS
EXPECTED TO SEE ONLY RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO MANY TAF SITES
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LWS) BY 15-18Z, BUT LOOKS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION INCREASES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE,
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITION TIMES. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 39 27 39 25 34 / 40 90 60 30 30 50
COEUR D'ALENE 34 40 28 39 24 33 / 50 90 70 50 40 70
PULLMAN 36 42 25 39 27 33 / 50 90 70 60 60 80
LEWISTON 38 47 32 44 31 40 / 50 70 70 40 50 60
COLVILLE 30 39 27 39 23 35 / 20 90 50 50 30 50
SANDPOINT 32 37 29 37 23 30 / 50 90 80 70 50 80
KELLOGG 35 42 29 36 24 32 / 80 90 90 80 60 90
MOSES LAKE 33 41 27 42 25 40 / 10 70 20 10 10 20
WENATCHEE 30 41 27 38 26 38 / 10 50 20 20 10 20
OMAK 30 40 28 39 25 37 / 0 50 20 20 20 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page