536
FXUS66 KOTX 011219
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
419 AM PST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FREEZING FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LIGHT LOWLAND WINTRY MIX.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS HEADING INTO 2026
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT WINTRY MIX FROM THURSDAY
MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED BUT MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
...WINTRY MIX FOR THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM
NEAR NORMAL CURRENTLY TO 190-220% OF NORMAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BE AUGMENTED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE BUT THE PICTURE
IS STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR IN SOME SPOTS. EXPANDING
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE MID COLUMBIA BASIN, WESTERN PALOUSE,
AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WILL TRAP IN THE COLD NEAR
SURFACE AIR BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES IN AREAS COVERED BY FOG OR
STRATUS HAVE DROPPED TO 21 TO 25 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW IF THE FOG AND STRATUS STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. CENTRAL AND WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY
ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. THUS, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE NORTH CASCADES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE LEWISTON AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND COVERAGE BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR IN THE
SPOKANE AREA, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE SPOKANE AREA IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO 40S MELTING OFF ANY LEFT OVER ICY SURFACES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ANY REMAINING AREAS OF LOWLAND SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. THE
METHOW VALLEY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE THEY CAN HANG ONTO
COLDER AIR BUT HI-RES MODELS SHOW DECREASING PRECIPITATION AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BRINGING A PRONOUNCED RAIN
SHADOW. GIVEN A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST MOVES NORTHWARD
AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE BUT THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. STEVENS PASS HAS
A 55% CHANCE OF 12 INCHES OR MORE FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM
WEDNESDAY. FOR LOOKOUT PASS, THE CHANCES ARE LOWER AROUND 25%.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S TO 40S THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. DB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: FOG HAS EXPANDED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS UNDER A
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCOE,
KSFF, KMWH, AND KLWS. THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE ITS
FULL EXTENT AND EVOLUTION VIA SATELLITE THOUGH. EXPECT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING, SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
FOR KEAT- KMWH- KGEG. PRECIPITATION AT KEAT AND KMWH WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KSFF AND KPUW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES FROM THE TOP-DOWN, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASING ABOVE 40 PERCENT AFTER 06Z FOR ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN FOR KEAT-
KMWH-KGEG. DRY AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ERODE SOME OF THE WARM NOSE CURRENTLY PRESENT AS
PRECIPITATION WORKS TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER 20Z. DUE TO
THIS, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MODELS DO EVENTUALLY SHOW THE
WARM-NOSE ALOFT REDEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING, WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 34 31 37 34 42 37 / 30 80 70 30 70 70
COEUR D'ALENE 38 32 39 35 42 37 / 20 80 90 40 70 80
PULLMAN 38 34 43 37 46 38 / 40 90 90 20 60 60
LEWISTON 40 37 47 38 49 40 / 30 80 70 0 20 30
COLVILLE 36 30 36 32 40 35 / 20 70 60 60 90 90
SANDPOINT 36 31 37 35 40 37 / 20 80 90 70 90 90
KELLOGG 41 33 40 39 43 38 / 20 80 100 40 70 80
MOSES LAKE 33 29 37 32 41 34 / 30 50 20 30 60 50
WENATCHEE 30 29 34 34 39 32 / 30 40 30 40 70 60
OMAK 33 29 34 33 38 35 / 20 40 20 40 80 60
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
SPOKANE AREA-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN
OKANOGAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE
AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-
LEWISTON AREA.
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