462
FXUS66 KOTX 011756
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1056 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO
THROUGH TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PAIR
OF SYSTEMS.
SYNOPSIS
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A SHOWERY REGIME EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
REGIME BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO BE
UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN-BETWEEN A QUASI-STALLED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN APPROACHING GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
THE SETUP WILL BRING DRY, WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AS THE LOW’S WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THESE
AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE 20-40% FOR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR NORTH IDAHO
PANHANDLE ARE 60-80%. THE 25-75 PROBABILITY PERCENTILES RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BEING PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. THE RANGE FOR NOW IS UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS
TO A WEST-EAST PATTERN AND PUSHING THE STALLED LOW OUT OF THE
MONTANA AREA. THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES TO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THE WAVE HAS THUNDER PROBABILITIES AT 10-30%
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UP TO 10% FOR THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT CURRENTLY THE RANGE IS NONE
TO A QUARTER OF INCH FOR MOST. PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR HALF AN INCH THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET AS A SMALL RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE EXITING WAVE AND INCOMING LOW. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE INCOMING LOW. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND TRACK. EITHER WAY, COOLER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH A
LOW TO THE EAST WILL BRING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND AROUND GEG/SFF/COE, AS WELL AS PLACES LIKE BONNERS FERRY,
SANDPOINT AND COLVILLE. SMALL CHANCES WILL BE FOUND NEAR PUW
TOO. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WA/ID BORDER
EASTWARD. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 02-03Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH FROM KOMK TO KMWH AND AT TIMES
BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM KGEG TO RITZVILLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
CEILINGS IN NORTH IDAHO AND EXTREME NE WA WILL LOWER TOWARD 5K
FT AGL WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. NBM HAS A 5-15% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE OUTER RIM OF THE HEAVIER CLOUD DECK THIS
AFTERNOON. HREF HAS LESS THAN A 5% AND LEANING TOWARD MAINLY A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS VS LIGHTNING TODAY. 10% LIGHTNING
THREAT LOOKS BEST OVER SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 66 45 73 47 78 50 / 30 10 0 0 0 40
COEUR D'ALENE 63 46 72 49 78 52 / 40 20 10 0 0 40
PULLMAN 66 42 72 46 76 48 / 20 10 0 0 0 50
LEWISTON 74 50 78 52 82 55 / 10 10 0 0 0 60
COLVILLE 68 40 76 43 79 45 / 30 20 10 0 10 50
SANDPOINT 60 45 70 47 76 50 / 80 30 10 0 0 40
KELLOGG 63 45 71 47 79 51 / 60 20 10 0 0 50
MOSES LAKE 78 48 81 52 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
WENATCHEE 79 55 81 57 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 30 20
OMAK 75 48 80 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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