148
FXUS66 KOTX 310836
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1236 AM PST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOWLAND WINTRY MIX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITION TYPE.
SYNOPSIS
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. A MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
HEADING INTO 2026 WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FRIDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED BUT MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
POOR MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AIR STAGNATION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 170 TO 200% OF NORMAL. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS SNOW ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE LEWISTON AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND COVERAGE BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE AREA, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST VALLEYS. ANTICIPATE MORE OF A NOWCASTING APPROACH
WATCHING HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES EVOLVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS, THOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT, WITH SNOW TOTALS UP TO AN INCH AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WARM
ALOFT SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY CHANGING ANY
REMAINING AREAS OF LOWLAND SNOW TO RAIN. THERE IS A 35% CHANCE OF
8+" OF SNOW AT STEVENS PASS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY. CHANCES FOR 8+"
OF SNOW AT LOOKOUT PASS FRIDAY TO MONDAY ARE LOWER AT 20%.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH ABOVE 2500 FEET TO LIMIT VALLEY SNOW.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (10%) OF SHALLOW RIVER FOG IMPACTING
KSFF BEFORE 18Z WITH CALM WINDS AND THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY STANDS AT 2 DEGREES.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AT
KSFF.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 23 35 31 37 34 / 0 0 10 60 70 40
COEUR D'ALENE 38 24 37 31 39 35 / 0 0 10 60 80 50
PULLMAN 39 27 39 34 43 37 / 0 0 10 70 80 30
LEWISTON 40 30 40 36 47 39 / 0 0 10 50 50 10
COLVILLE 36 21 36 28 36 32 / 0 0 10 50 60 60
SANDPOINT 36 25 37 29 38 35 / 0 0 0 60 80 60
KELLOGG 42 29 41 32 41 38 / 0 0 10 60 90 40
MOSES LAKE 34 22 34 30 37 32 / 0 0 10 40 30 40
WENATCHEE 33 26 32 27 34 33 / 0 0 10 30 30 50
OMAK 33 25 34 28 34 33 / 0 0 0 20 20 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
SPOKANE AREA-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN
OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-
LEWISTON AREA.
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