532
FXUS66 KOTX 061112
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
412 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS IS AHEAD OF US DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO
NORMAL. NORTHERN SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH
30S, WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE, AND PALOUSE
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS.
ENJOY THESE WARMER FALL DAYS WHILE THEY LAST, BECAUSE A COOLDOWN IS
IN ORDER FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CLUSTER ANALYSIS ROUGHLY 80 PERCENT OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING A STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS. HIGHS WILL DROP 10 OR MORE DEGREES, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH
SNOW LEVELS DO FALL TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW. ELSEWHERE,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT, WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS IN
THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND COLUMBIA BASIN LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
35 MPH, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE PROLONGED DRY
STRETCH, BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
WHERE SOILS REMAIN DRY. THESE GUSTS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, AND COULD BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS.
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS FROM THE
NORTH INCREASE. ON SATURDAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND BASIN AREAS. ON SUNDAY,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD, AGAIN REACHING 30 TO 35 MPH IN
THE BASIN AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU. BOTTOM LINE, EXPECT A POTENTIALLY
CHILLY AND WINDY WEEKEND IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST, AND STAY TUNED AS
THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED NEAR WATER BODIES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT AIRPORT TERMINALS. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 75 45 76 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 74 45 75 46 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 75 44 76 45 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 79 48 79 48 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 74 38 76 40 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 70 40 72 41 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 73 47 74 46 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 77 44 78 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 77 52 78 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 74 45 76 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page