025
FXUS66 KOTX 121133
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
333 AM PST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TODAY. THREAT OF A WINTRY MIX ENDS THIS MORNING.
- DRY AND STAGNANT PATTERN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS FALLING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND INTO THE
UPSLOPE REGION OF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THAT IS SLOPING
OVER INTO THE EAST SLOPES. MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING AS RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS NOW OVER 7,000 FEET OVER THE CASCADES. THE EXCEPTION IS IN
THE UPPER REACHES OF THE METHOW VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING. IT'S UNLIKELY THAT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK THAT MUCH ICE IS ACCUMULATING THOUGH. POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS
WELL. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PASS BY LATE MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP. THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS UP AT 850 MBS WILL BE UP
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX MUCH OF THESE WINDS DOWN BEING IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND WE DON'T HAVE ANY DYNAMICS TO MECHANICALLY MIX
THESE WINDS DOWN AS WELL. WINDS WILL MAINLY TO SOUTHERLY AND
SLIGHTLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE IN EXPOSED AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 10-20 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE PALOUSE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE
EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE WAVERING OF THE
ENSEMBLES LOOKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THIS
WILL PROMOTE A DRY AND STAGNANT PATTERN. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. I DON'T SEE THIS DISTURBANCE DOING
MUCH AND MODELS DON'T SHOW A REFLECTION DOWN TO THE SURFACE. I
EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTH INTO BC. MUCH
OF US MAY NOT EVEN SEE THESE CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RETAIN ITS MOISTURE, AND IT LOOKS AS IF THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN EXPANDING FOG AND STRATUS COVER. THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR THE
CASCADES ON TUESDAY. THEN THE WEAKENING SOUTHEAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THAT MOIST
AIR TO EXPAND EASTWARD AND FILL IN ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FOG AND STRATUS LOOKS TO EXPAND
AND FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT IS A STRUGGLE TO
FIGURE OUT THE TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. STRATUS COVER WILL
LIMIT OUR DIURNAL HEATING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TEMPERATURE
VARIATIONS OF MAYBE JUST A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THIS CLOUD COVER. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM) HAS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WHERE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SEEING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREADS CLOSER TO 15 DEGREES. THAT
WON'T BE THE CASE UNDER CONSTANT STRATUS COVER. IT LOOKS AS IF
IT'S LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S IS CLOSER TO REALITY
VERSUS IT'S HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 40S. MY HUNCH IS THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THAT VARY FROM AROUND 30
DEGREES TO HIGHS UP TO THE MID 30S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WITH FREEZING
FOG, AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN RIME ICE. IT'S SOMETHING TO TAKE
NOTE OF AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WOULD PLACE THE INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER NORTHERN FLOW. ANY
DISTURBANCES THAT DIVE DOWN IN THAT FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO INCREASE DRIER WINDS FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, AND THIS
COULD ERODE THE STRATUS DECK IF THAT HAPPENS. /SVH
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. COLDER POCKETS MAY SEE A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING AT
KS52 (METHOW VALLEY). A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THESE
NORTHERN ZONES IN EASTERN AND NORTH IDAHO WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED
IFR CONDITIONS FROM KS52 (METHOW VALLEY)- KEAT(WENATCHEE) -
K63S(COLVILLE)- KSZT(SANDPOINT) THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.
A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING AT TAF SITES. SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AND STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
AT KPUW AND KLWS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KPUW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KEAT
WHERE SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 35 49 29 36 27 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 46 35 48 29 40 27 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 49 35 50 33 46 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 53 36 52 34 48 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 32 45 30 37 27 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 35 45 31 38 28 / 30 20 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 46 39 50 34 46 30 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 49 35 49 30 37 28 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 49 40 48 36 38 34 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 45 35 45 33 37 31 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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