749
FXUS66 KOTX 211740
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1040 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL START TO THE WEEK.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS.
SYNOPSIS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DECAYING SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH SOUTHERN BC WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES. AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WILL SEE AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FROST WILL
DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE REGION.
PLENTIFUL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND RADIATIVE COOLING WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
PERIOD WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A COOLING TREND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOVE THE PASS LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT FALL TO
AROUND 4000-5500 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON, 3500-4000 FEET BY SUNDAY
AND EVEN LOWER INTO MONDAY AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. SOME LOWLAND SPOTS
IN COULD SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON MONDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY AND WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
STRENGTHENS. A SHOWERY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A STRONG RAIN SHADOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
HERE ARE THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES:
STEVENS PASS: 80%
WASHINGTON PASS: 70%
SHERMAN PASS: 35%
LOOKOUT PASS: 25%
BLEWETT PASS: 4%
CHANCES FOR 12 INCHES OR GREATER ARE AS FOLLOWS:
STEVENS PASS: 65%
WASHINGTON PASS: 35%
SHERMAN PASS: 4%
LOOKOUT PASS: 1%
BLEWETT PASS: 0%
/BUTLER
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE PNW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/STRATUS
SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 34 63 37 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 58 36 62 38 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 60 37 63 36 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 64 41 67 43 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 56 24 60 25 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 55 32 59 33 56 37 / 0 0 0 10 0 10
KELLOGG 58 40 66 40 57 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 60 34 61 34 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 60 39 60 43 60 44 / 0 0 0 10 0 20
OMAK 58 36 60 38 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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