776
FGUS73 KLOT 240512
ESFLOT
ILC007-011-031-037-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-
141-197-201-INC073-089-111-127-250600-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2021
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 11/29/2021 - 02/27/2022
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : 13 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER (HOHMAN A 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 45 43 19 15 13 13
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO (PULASKI 18.0 20.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DES PLAINES 15.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVER FOREST 16.0 17.5 18.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVERSIDE 7.5 8.0 9.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEMONT 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WB DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DU PAGE RIVER
PLAINFIELD 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN LOCK & 9.5 10.5 12.0 : <5 20 <5 8 <5 <5
MONTGOMERY 13.5 15.0 16.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 15 21 <5 7 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 36 27 10 8 <5 <5
SHELBY 10.5 11.5 12.5 : 47 32 28 20 22 14
MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : 32 22 12 10 8 7
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 33 28 18 11 14 10
FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 44 31 11 8 5 <5
IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 56 48 14 10 10 7
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : 57 50 17 15 6 5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 23 19 14 11 7 7
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 24 18 13 8 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 25 20 8 7 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : 18 11 17 10 8 <5
LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 43 28 14 10 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LATHAM PARK 9.0 11.0 13.5 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
ROCKFORD (AUBURN 6.0 8.5 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SB KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DEKALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 33 19 21 18 16 12
OTTAWA 463.0 467.0 471.0 : 35 21 16 13 6 7
LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 60 52 17 16 10 9
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 11/29/2021 - 02/27/2022
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 3.8 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.9 7.8 8.3
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 4.0 4.5 5.6 6.8 8.5 10.8 11.7
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER (HOHMAN A 8.7 9.7 10.6 11.8 13.4 19.3 21.2
SOUTH HOLLAND 8.6 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.9 15.3 15.6
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO (PULASKI 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.6 16.2
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.0 6.5
GURNEE 1.8 2.0 3.1 3.9 5.0 5.9 6.8
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.7 6.8 7.7 8.5 9.6 10.2 10.8
DES PLAINES 8.8 9.0 9.8 11.0 12.7 13.8 14.5
RIVER FOREST 5.2 5.5 7.3 9.1 10.7 12.7 13.1
RIVERSIDE 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.1 6.0 7.4 7.8
LEMONT 6.8 7.0 7.7 8.8 9.8 11.1 11.6
:WB DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 8.6 8.7 9.2 10.1 10.9 11.3 12.1
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 16.1 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.0
:DU PAGE RIVER
PLAINFIELD 7.6 7.8 8.3 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.5
SHOREWOOD 1.4 1.6 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.6 6.1
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN LOCK & 5.0 5.0 6.1 7.0 7.9 8.5 8.7
MONTGOMERY 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2
DAYTON 6.4 6.7 8.4 9.5 11.1 12.4 13.3
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 6.6 7.1 7.9 9.4 11.1 12.0 12.5
SHELBY 7.4 7.8 8.9 10.4 12.3 13.3 15.2
MOMENCE 2.8 3.0 3.3 4.2 5.4 7.6 10.3
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 7.5 7.8 9.3 11.3 13.1 17.3 19.3
FORESMAN 12.5 13.1 14.9 17.4 19.2 22.8 24.1
IROQUOIS 11.7 13.1 15.2 18.8 21.6 25.0 26.3
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 11.2 12.4 15.0 18.6 20.9 25.0 26.9
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 7.7 8.3 9.7 13.2 15.7 19.4 21.4
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 2.7 2.9 3.4 5.0 6.4 8.3 9.7
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 4.6 5.7 6.9 9.2 12.0 13.4 14.8
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 5.7 6.4 7.8 10.7 13.1 17.6 18.8
LEONORE 8.1 9.3 11.1 15.2 18.5 24.4 25.1
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 3.9 4.3 5.8 7.8 9.5 11.3 11.8
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 2.8 3.1 4.0 5.5 6.8 7.8 8.2
LATHAM PARK 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.3 6.2 7.0 7.4
ROCKFORD (AUBURN 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.5 1.6 2.3 3.9 5.3 6.9 7.4
:SB KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DEKALB 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.9 6.0 7.0 7.5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 5.8 5.9 7.1 8.6 10.3 11.8 12.8
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 4.9 5.0 6.0 7.2 9.0 10.2 10.8
DIXON 7.7 7.9 8.9 9.9 11.4 13.0 14.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 6.5 7.2 9.2 12.7 17.0 23.6 24.8
OTTAWA 459.4 459.5 459.8 462.1 464.2 469.8 471.7
LA SALLE 13.4 14.3 17.5 22.7 25.4 30.9 32.6
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 11/29/2021 - 02/27/2022
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER (HOHMAN A 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0
SOUTH HOLLAND 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO (PULASKI 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
GURNEE 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9
DES PLAINES 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8
RIVER FOREST 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.2
RIVERSIDE 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
LEMONT 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9
:WB DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4
:DU PAGE RIVER
PLAINFIELD 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
SHOREWOOD 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN LOCK & 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
MONTGOMERY 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9
DAYTON 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.2
SHELBY 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5
MOMENCE 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7
FORESMAN 7.6 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.7
IROQUOIS 7.2 7.0 6.5 6.1 5.6 5.2 5.0
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
LEONORE 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2
LATHAM PARK 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
ROCKFORD (AUBURN 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
:SB KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DEKALB 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3
DIXON 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
OTTAWA 459.1 459.1 459.0 459.0 458.9 458.9 458.9
LA SALLE 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.8
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LOT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF NEXT MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page