069  
FNUS73 KILX 241239  
FWSILX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HOMER LAKE MIDDLE MEADOW RX BURN...CHAMPAIGN COUNTY FOREST PRESERVE DISTRICT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
639 AM CST WED NOV 24 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON NOVEMBER 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (217) 732-3089 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES. RAIN IS EXPECTED  
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING, AND WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD LATE  
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.  
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 21 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
37 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 1900 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 32 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 26 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD /56300 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.  
MAX...EXCELLENT /60100 KNOT-FT/.  
 
TIME (CST) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........78 70 75  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............52 54 51  
RH..............52 52 59  
20 FT WIND......S 21 S 18 S 18  
20 FT WIND GUST.37 31 31  
MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1700 1300  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 36 S 32 S 26  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..56 48 29  
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR FAIR POOR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.  
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 28 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17100 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........78 86 91 94 95 95  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 30 70 80 70  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............50 49 50 51 49 48  
RH..............61 66 66 66 80 86  
20 FT WIND......S 15 S 15 S 15 SW 14 SW 14 SW 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 24 24 20  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1100 1200 1200 1000 1000  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 26 S 26 SW 23 SW 21 W 20  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..22 26 28 24 19 18  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
THANKSGIVING DAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 44.  
RH..................MIN 72 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (64300 KNOT-FT) IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........93 89 87 85 68 53  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............47 44 40 38 39 35  
RH..............83 82 85 82 73 75  
20 FT WIND......NW 14 NW 14 NW 16 NW 17 NW 17 NW 17  
20 FT WIND GUST.22 22 24 24 24 24  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1800 2200 2600 2800 2800  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 20 NW 22 NW 24 NW 26 NW 25 NW 25  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..21 33 47 60 62 62  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...CHRIS GEELHART  
REQUESTED BY...PETER GOODSPEED  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2121502.0/ILX  
.DELDT 11/24/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL PGOODSPEED@CCFPD.ORG  
 
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