193  
FNUS73 KILX 091335  
FWSILX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PANTHER CREEK LWR...IDNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
835 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON APRIL 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (217) 732-3089 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY  
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY  
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BECOME VERY WINDY ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AS  
A MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON  
THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3900 FT AGL LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9500-44500 KNOT-FT).  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9500-44500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........4 9 18  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%)..0 0 0  
LAL..............M M M  
TEMP.............68 70 68  
RH...............29 26 28  
20 FT WIND.......N 7 NW 7 NW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST..  
MIX HGT (FT).....5600 6200 3900  
TRANSPORT WIND...N 9 NW 5 W 2  
HAINES INDEX.....5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.45 27 10  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000.45 27 10  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.  
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 20 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........22 50 53 60 65 68  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%)..0 0 0 0 10 10  
LAL..............M M M M M M  
TEMP.............66 62 58 55 52 49  
RH...............30 44 49 55 61 68  
20 FT WIND.......N 6 N 3 NE 2 NE 3 E 6 E 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.. 5 4 5 7 11  
MIX HGT (FT).....1900 BLW100 100 BLW100 100 400  
TRANSPORT WIND...S 1 SE 2 E 5 E 3 E 8 E 17  
HAINES INDEX.....6 6 6 5 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.4 0 0 0 2 5  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000.4 0 0 0 2 5  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 31  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3300 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 21 TO 28 MPH INCREASING TO 31 TO 35  
MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (7600-52900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (65200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (7600-52900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (65200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........71 72 61 68 66 66  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%)..10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL..............M M M M M M  
TEMP.............48 50 53 58 65 69  
RH...............71 66 61 57 48 45  
20 FT WIND.......E 9 E 12 E 13 E 14 SE 16 SE 16  
20 FT WIND GUST..13 16 19 23 25 24  
MIX HGT (FT).....400 700 1300 2300 3100 3200  
TRANSPORT WIND...E 21 E 23 SE 25 SE 26 SE 31 SE 35  
HAINES INDEX.....3 2 2 3 4 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.8 15 30 53 82 95  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000.8 15 30 53 82 95  
 

 
FORECASTER...HJS  
REQUESTED BY...RAY GEROFF  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1905733.0/ILX  
.DELDT 04/09/19  
.EMAIL RAY.GEROFF@ILLINOIS.GOV  
 
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