576
FNUS73 KLSX 221143
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARK TWAIN LAKE - ROUTE N...U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT MON APR 22 2019
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, BUT
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO BE HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0900, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
1000, THEN NO TSTMS UNTIL 1600, THEN 1-8
STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS SOUTH AROUND 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTHWEST 4 TO 5 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
OF 0.4.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 200 FT AGL AT IGNITION,
4000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (14940 M/S-M) AT MAX HEATING.
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........52 63 69 71 82 82
WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............10 20 10 10 10 20
LAL.............1 2 1 1 1 2
TEMP............62 66 72 76 77 75
RH..............70 63 55 52 52 55
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 11 S 13 S 13 SW 13 SW 12
20 FT WIND GUST.13 16 18 21 20 18
FORECASTER...GOSSELIN
REQUESTED BY...ALLEN MEHRER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1906731.0/LSX
.DELDT 04/22/19
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
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