643
FNUS73 KLSX 181846
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER LAKE SAVANNA...DJM/ST LOUIS FIRE DEPT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1246 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON FEBRUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DETAILS HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING, RH VALUES HAVE LOWERED
3-4 PERCENTAGE POINTS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE MIXING HEIGHT IS NOW
FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE FORECAST RANGE FROM THIS
MORNING, CLOSER TO 4000 FT RATHER THAN THE 4500-6000 FT. SMOKE
SHOULD LIFT EFFECTIVELY WITHIN THIS LAYER, HOWEVER, AND DISPERSE IN
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
RH VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND SUNSET AS THE DAY STARTS TO
COOL AND THE NEAR SURFACE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ANY
SMOKE STILL OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WILL GET TRAPPED WITHIN THE
STABLE LAYER.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 75.
RH..................24 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 18 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....2-4 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 4000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /7020 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD /9980
M/S-M/.
TIME (CST) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM
SKY (%).........3 1 5 23 41 42
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............72 73 70 62 57 54
RH..............24 18 22 34 51 66
20 FT WIND......W 9 W 8 SW 5 SE 3 S 2 S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 7 6 7 9
EYE LEVEL WIND..W 4 W 4 SW 2 SE 1 S 1 S 1
EYE LVL WND GST.6 6 3 3 3 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 4.9 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 15 SW 7 SW 3 S 3 S 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..45 64 7 1 1 2
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (140 M/S-M).
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT LATE
IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN
THE MORNING DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT DECREASING
TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING
TO 10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....2-5 MPH, GUSTING 9 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
OF 0.4.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 18
TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (550 M/S-M) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD MAX (13640 M/S-M) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...DELIA
REQUESTED BY...AMY WITT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2603065.1/LSX
.DELDT 02/18/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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