068  
FNUS73 KLSX 231413  
FWSLSX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FORESTRY WOODLAND...ST. LOUIS COUNTY PARKS FORESTRY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
813 AM CST WED NOV 23 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON NOVEMBER 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTH,  
AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY,  
RH VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  
INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS ONLY RISE TO ABOUT 1500FT BY THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON, BUT THE INVERSION APPEARS VERY WEAK AND MAY BE OVERCOME  
BY THE LOCALLY-HOTTER CONDITIONS THE FIRE WOULD CAUSE. WHILE THE  
FORECAST BELOW DOES CALL FOR LARGELY-POOR VENTILATION RATES GIVEN  
THE WEAK WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS, MORE IMPROVED VENTILATION  
MAY OCCURRED IN A LOCALIZED SENSE WHERE THE INVERSION CAN BE  
OVERCOME.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.  
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS AT IGNITION BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT  
2 TO 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON (CORRECTION OF 0.3  
USED).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 2800 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /660 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR /4480  
M/S-M/.  
 
TIME (CST) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM  
SKY (%).........20 40 56 73 73 62  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............54 61 62 55 50 47  
RH..............54 44 44 57 68 71  
20 FT WIND......S 4 SE 6 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5 SE 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 9 12 12 12 10  
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 2 SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2  
EYE LVL WND GST.3 4 6 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.5 0.5  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 S 7 S 7 S 12 S 15 S 12  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 16 15 7 7 5  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...MRB  
REQUESTED BY...JASON PRATTE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2221776.0/LSX  
.DELDT 11/23/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
 
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