243
FNUS73 KLSX 171334
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BURTON...IL DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
734 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CST ON FEBRUARY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, RESULTING
IN HIGHER MINIMUM RH VALUES (UPPER 50S) THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS ONLY
ABOUT A 10% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 55%. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG TODAY DESPITE SHALLOW MIXING. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, WITH GUIDANCE SOURCES
SOMEWHAT VARIED ON EXACTLY HOW HIGH MIXING WILL GO. THE NUMBER IN THE
MATRIX BELOW (2100 FT) REPRESENTS THE MAXIMUM MIXING EXPECTED, AND
SHALLOWER MIXING IS POSSIBLE. MIXING WILL KICK OFF IN EARNEST BETWEEN
10-11 AM THIS MORNING, INCREASING THE MIXING HEIGHT ABOVE 500 FT DURING
THIS PERIOD.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE PROGRESSIVE,
SPEEDS WITHIN THIS LAYER WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND
ABLE TO DISPERSE SMOKE EFFECTIVELY. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL, WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH HUMIDITY
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT
FROM ROUGHLY 8PM THROUGH 2AM, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AT THE
BURN SITE IS LOW. IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT, A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, AND LARGELY UNIMPACTFUL.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.
RH..................77 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....2-5 MPH, GUSTING TO 11 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
OF 0.3.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 2100 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 26 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1080 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR /7120
M/S-M/.
TIME (CST) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM
SKY (%).........81 76 86 89 86 88
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............48 53 59 62 63 59
RH..............77 71 62 58 58 67
20 FT WIND......S 8 S 10 S 11 S 13 S 14 S 17
20 FT WIND GUST.14 17 20 23 27 32
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 8
EYE LVL WND GST.6 8 9 10 12 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.7
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 16 S 18 S 24 S 26 S 25
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 15 24 42 45 36
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...8 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SUSTAINED 5 MPH, GUSTING TO 11, WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 37 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20 TO
21 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (8700 M/S-M) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO MARGINAL MIN (4760 M/S-M) LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SUSTAINED 3-4 MPH, GUSTING TO 8 MPH WITH AN
ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2390 M/S-M) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD MAX (11640 M/S-M) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...DELIA
REQUESTED BY...RAY GEROFF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2602893.0/LSX
.DELDT 02/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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