209  
FNUS73 KLSX 221155  
FWSLSX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HAWN PARK WEST...MODNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
555 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT  
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  
THE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ONLY BE ABOUT  
7 TO 8 PERCENT. THE 20 FOOT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD BE BELOW 12 MPH  
ACROSS THIS AREA. WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT  
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE  
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........39 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.  
RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 3 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.2.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 2000 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1950 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR /4020  
M/S-M/.  
 
TIME (CST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM  
SKY (%).........7 11 18 20 14 15  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............39 47 51 49 42 39  
RH..............40 30 27 31 43 52  
20 FT WIND......SW 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 7 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 15 16 16 12 12  
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 3 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 3 S 3  
EYE LVL WND GST.6 7 7 7 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.2  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14 SW 12 S 14 S 13 S 8 S 8  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 20 24 15 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.  
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 2 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.2.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (190 M/S-M).  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...GOSSELIN  
REQUESTED BY...RON COLATSKIE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2002703.1/LSX  
.DELDT 02/22/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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