027
FNUS73 KPAH 072327
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR LIBO PILE RX...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON MAY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE UP TO THE
CRITICAL 1700 FOOT AGL THRESHOLD...TOPPING OUT AT ABOUT 3000 FEET AGL
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CREATE POOR SMOKE
DISPERSAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH AS WELL.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................32 PERCENT INCREASING TO 48 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO 66 PERCENT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 48 PERCENT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 72.
RH..................84 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /2700 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR
/30000 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30 30 40 40 40 40 50 50 70 50 50
TEMP............60 60 62 65 67 68 69 70 70 70 71
RH..............84 90 87 78 75 76 73 68 68 66 66
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E NE NE NE NE N
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 10 12 10 13 12 9 10 12 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 8 12 15 28 30 24 21 15 19
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................51 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC
WEATHER COV.....CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TSTM COV........CHC
CWR.............50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............68 68 66 63 62 61 60 59 57 55 53 51
RH..............70 70 75 81 84 84 84 80 80 80 80 83
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 12 14 14 15 16 16 16 15 15 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..15 5 5 7 7 9 9 8 7 7 8 10
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70.
RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (59600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............51 51 53 56 59 62 64 66 68 69 69 68
RH..............80 77 74 69 62 56 50 47 43 42 42 43
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.1 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 17 16 16 15 16 16 17 17 16 15 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 18 22 25 29 36 44 51 58 60 54 37
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR PR
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...ERIC S ANDERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513437.0/PAH
.DELDT 05/07/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ERIC_ANDERSON@NPS.GOV
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