480
FXUS63 KILX 260418
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2020
RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COMING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER A COUPLE DRY
DAYS, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2020
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST
NEAR AND EAST OF I-57 THIS EVENING, WITH JUST A COUPLE SPOTS
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN FEATURE REMAINS THE AREA OF
RAIN/SNOW ADVANCING EAST ACROSS IOWA. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN
ARRIVAL AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR GALESBURG, WITH SOME EXPANSION
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLETE SWITCHOVER
NEAR GALESBURG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, WITH MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
FROM KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERHAPS A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THIS LATTER PRECIPITATION, SO POP'S
WERE INCREASED SOME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2020
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MUCH IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE
ACCELERATION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
LARGE-SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WATCHING RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, SOME
LIGHT RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA, DUE TO
THE BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE. THESE LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING TO THE 30S AND 40S. AS THE
SLIGHTLY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, THIS WILL MOVE THE
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY, ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS TIME, WITH
THE WARM SFC LAYER, NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN...LIMITING
ALL PRECIP TO SNOWFALL OR RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE MORNING, SHOULD SEE THE WINTRY MIX CHANGE TO ALL
RAINFALL FROM NW TO SE. DURING THE AFTERNOON, A WEAK WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS, ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE US, LIFTING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS, THE TOTAL AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS MAXED OUT NEAR 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTH, ACROSS PAH/LSX CWA, AMOUNTS RANGE UPWARDS
OF 1 INCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2020
HEADING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL SPLIT LOWS WILL
WORK SOUTH AND EAST, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE MOISTURE FEEDING.
NOW INTRODUCE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO, ALONG WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW FROM THE DESERT SW THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS, IT WILL BE HELD
BACK BY THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM MID-WEEK. ONCE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE, THE SFC LOW WILL BE DIRECTED
NORTHEAST, AS THE TROPICAL REMNANTS MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE SFC
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING THE RAINFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
REMAINING MOISTURE FROM THE CUT-OFF LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AREA. IF THIS HOLDS, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS APPEAR QUIET FROM ABOUT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER INTO THE NEXT WEEK...BUT
WITH MODEL PREDICTIONS THAT FAR OUT, THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2020
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING OVER THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME BRIEF LIFTS ABOVE 3,000 FEET NEAR KPIA. GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 2,000 FEET
THOUGH, WHICH ISN'T REALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING AROUND KPIA/KBMI. INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
SOME MIXED PRECIP WILL PASS NEAR/NORTH OF KPIA/KBMI THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. MORE DOMINANT AREA OF RAIN WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OUT OF
MISSOURI AND ACROSS THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR MID TO LATE MORNING,
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS LATTER RAIN MAY LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO A FEW MILES AT TIMES, MOST LIKELY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEELHART
SYNOPSIS...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GEELHART
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