192
FXUS63 KILX 172055
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 70-90% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH FROM 6PM TO 3AM TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL.
- APRIL-LIKE WARMTH, WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, IS
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL, DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST, SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION (THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
OUR WELL-ADVERTISED WARM-UP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. THE PATTERN IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH IS SPREADING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND A SURFACE LEE
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS, THE MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS (30-45 MPH) TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NET
EFFECT WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS MID 60S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TAIL OF GUIDANCE PUSHING 70 DEGREES
EACH DAY. THESE APRIL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO CHASE
THE RECORD BOOKS, AND WE HAVE ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
HIGHLIGHTING WHERE THE CURRENT RECORDS MIGHT BE IN PERIL.
A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS LATER THIS
EVENING BEHIND A PASSING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
WILL MUTE A BROADER SEVERE WEATHER RISK, A FEW ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COULD TRANSFER MOMENTUM FROM A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ)
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONSEQUENTLY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY.
BOTH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND SOME LONGER-RANGE CAMS ARE
INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER- TO MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. IN THIS AREA, BOUNDARY-
LAYER MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND PROMOTE 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
(60+ KTS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND PERSIST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
MIDDLE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY IS INCREASING AND
REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS SHOWING BETTER SUPPORT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
NBM GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER SNOW PROBABILITIES, SUGGESTING
ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF
SNOW IS CURRENTLY LOW (20% OR LESS), THIS REMAINS A DEVELOPING
TREND.
TEMPERATURES THEN DROP NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES AND LOWS NEAR 20.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN
25-35 KTS ARE LIKELY, AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WHICH COULD PROMOTE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KTS.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS SHOWERY ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, THEN GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AS THE FRONT
PUSHES PAST THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION. SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE MUTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MJA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
GROWING CONCERN EXISTS FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY, A
SIDE EFFECT OF THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE
PRIMARY RISK AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY SPARSE OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE, WITH
WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25%. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A MACOMB TO KANKAKEE LINE
WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST. TRENDS WILL BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED TONIGHT FOR POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD EXPANSION.
MJA
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
LOCATION WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 72 (2017) 70 (1930)
CHAMPAIGN 70 (2017) 68 (2017)
CHARLESTON 68 (1961) 72 (1930)
DECATUR 70 (1911) 66 (1930)
LINCOLN 67 (2017) 71 (1930)
OLNEY 72 (1961) 72 (1930)
PEORIA 68 (2017) 71 (1930)
SPRINGFIELD 68 (2017) 71 (2017)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ILZ027-028-030.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ILZ031-037-038-041>045-047-048-050>057-061>063.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page