393
FXUS63 KILX 071035
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
535 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES TODAY, THOUGH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S WILL KEEP THE AIR FEELING UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST TIMES BEING THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE MESSY THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEST TO EAST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED
FROM ROUGHLY KIRKSVILLE, MO TO EVANSVILLE, IN AS OF 2 AM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COINCIDE WITH THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH IS PRIMARILY
BEING FED BY A 35 KT LLJ THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH THE
STORMS MOVING ESE OR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THE SPC HREF LPMM HAS
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 2-3"+ OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
WESTERN IL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY, WHICH ISN'T SURPRISING WITH
PWATS OF 2-2.5" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS BETWEEN 4-4.5 KM. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL IN SOUTHERN SANGAMON AND CHRISTIAN
COUNTIES YESTERDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS SHEAR IS WEAK, THOUGH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE SOME WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ LATER THIS MORNING, BUT A
FEW SUBTLE WAVES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS TO MIGRATE ALONG THE FRONT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO IOWA APPROACHES THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SUITABLE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAPABLE
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
PWATS REMAINING CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL SOMEWHERE
FROM A QUINCY TO MATTOON LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR SOME OF THESE COUNTIES AHEAD OF TONIGHT'S ROUND OF
STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS FROM CONVECTION THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY, KEEPING SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING
UNCOMFORTABLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ACTING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND PUTTING AN END TO PRECIPITATION. EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SETS
UP THIS WEEKEND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH, BRINGING THE RETURN
OF 60S DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY AND 50S BY SUNDAY. THE WEATHER LOOKS
PRETTY BENIGN AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY CREEPING BACK IN BY
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS, MAINLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN TAF SITES (SPI & DEC). MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISBYS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ROLLING IN
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK INTO VFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY
RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NMB
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