636
FXUS63 KILX 172301
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER-MAKER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED JUST S/SE OF THE AREA,
A LIGHT S/SE WIND OF 5-8MPH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LIGHTLY MIXED. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
THEREFORE NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AS LAST NIGHT AND RESULTING
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY. AM EXPECTING THE
COLDEST READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER...WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15MPH. THANKS TO FULL SUNSHINE WORKING ON
THE DRY AIRMASS, THINK HIGHS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
WITH UPPER RIDGING POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY, THEN WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
12Z OCT 17 MODELS SHOW A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND FORMING A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY SPREADING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO
ILLINOIS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
(30-50%) WILL MATERIALIZE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND THE WEAKENING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT. ONCE THE WAVE EXITS, A RETURN TO MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
VFR/CLEAR SKIES THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL KEEP SSE WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE NEAR 10 KT BY LATE MORNING FRI.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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