491
FXUS63 KILX 161543
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
THE WEAKENING PRESSURE CENTER OF FORMER HURRICANE BARRY HAS MOVED
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, ASIDE
FROM A SEMI PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LIKELY WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER UP TO AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES IN
EASTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, SOME SPOTTY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON HEATING PRODUCES SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD DUMP A RAPID INCH OR MORE.
UPDATES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO REFINE SHORT TERM POP TRENDS FOR
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION BANDS AND TO REFINE QPF AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL STORM
BARRY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING, WITH BANDS OF
PRECIP PUSHING INTO IL. BANDS OF PRECIP ON RADAR SLOW WITH
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION AS THEY ERODE SLIGHTLY. BARRY HAS TURNED OUT
TO BE A LITTLE LESS EFFICIENT WITH PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND CENTRAL IL AT LEAST HAS BEEN PULLED FROM EXCESSIVE
RAIN OUTLOOKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO FURTHER
INHIBITING SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT
BEST, AND THUNDER MAY BE SPARSE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, WHEN SOME
DIURNAL SWING WILL HELP STEEPEN THE LLVL LAPSE RATES AND INFLUENCE
MUCAPES. OVERALL, A MUGGY DAY FOR CENTRAL IL. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL BARRY MOVES OUT TO
THE NE BY WED MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
POTENTIALLY CLEARING SKIES ARE SETTING UP FOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL,
HIGHEST ACROSS THE HALF OF THE STATE. NOT AN ABSOLUTE BY ANY
STRETCH, BUT PUTTING IN A PATCHY MENTION FOR NOW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
WEDNESDAY BEGINS AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE
REMAINS OF BARRY MOVE OUT TO THE NE. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
HELD TO THE UPPER 80S/90S, JUST THE BEGINNING FOR THE HEAT THAT
FOLLOWS. WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT INDICES WILL
PUSH 100F IN A FEW LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY. THAT HEAT EXPANDS
AND RAMPS UP FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 110F FOR SEVERAL DAYS WARRANTS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF ILX
CWA. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF THINGS WILL POTENTIALLY THREATEN THE 4
DAY HEAT WAVE. NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH... AND
THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING DRAGGED THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. EITHER WAY, HOT AND MUGGY IS MOST DEFINITELY THE MAJOR
STORY FOR THE FORECAST RUN. THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME OF THE EVENT
WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK. MAJOR FLAW IN THE BLENDED MODELS AT
THIS POINT IS THE EXTENDED...SO FAR, SHOWING NO SIGN OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES COOLER ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF SUNDAY LIKELY DROPPED CONSIDERABLY BY
CLIMATOLOGY. SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PARTICULAR FORECAST RUN BEYOND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BARRY WILL
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH PIA AT IFR CEILING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY
TODAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY WHEN
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CAMS ARE POINTING TOWARD MAINLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER, THEN SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
TAPER OFF IN ITS WAKE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>052.
UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
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