999  
FXUS63 KILX 110506  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1206 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ON FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY.  
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF  
THIS WEEK AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND  
COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
DECREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF CONVECTION THAT  
MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. NEVERTHELESS, THE  
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST IN NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA  
HAS BEEN ENHANCING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA, AND  
THIS SHOULD EXTEND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL LATE THIS  
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOW MUCH OF CENTRAL IL IS AFFECTED  
REMAINS IN QUESTION, AS A FEW MODELS DEPICT ACTIVITY REMAINING  
NORTH OF KNOX, STARK, AND MARSHALL COUNTIES, WHILE A FEW BRING  
ACTIVITY THROUGH THAT AREA AND EVEN A COUNTY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH.  
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN THIS AREA APPEAR  
TO BE ON TARGET, SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST AS-IS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
OTHERWISE, LOWS NEAR 70 APPEAR ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.  
 
37  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..DAILY STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
 
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EAST-  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN OVERNIGHT  
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. FURTHER NORTHWEST, A MCV FROM THE SAME STORM  
COMPLEX IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AND  
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF ILLINOIS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE  
KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA, A FEW  
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS DO SHOW STORMS STRETCHING AS FAR SOUTH AS I-72.  
INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACHING MCV AND MODERATELY STRONG  
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY  
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO  
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE AREA. BETTER  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATER ON FRIDAY HERE LOCALLY AS A  
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AHEAD OF A PARENT TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTH- CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE BY EVENING  
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MODERATELY STRONG BY AFTERNOON WITH  
SBCAPES LOOKING TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG. ~30 KT OF  
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT, WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION, POSING A RISK FOR ALL  
SEVERE HAZARDS. STORMS LOOK TO FIRE UP SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN OUR WEST, WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING  
EAST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL BRING  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BETTER  
UPPER FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA, THOUGH HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH THE FRONT WILL ONCE  
AGAIN LEAD TO MARGINAL PARAMETERS FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
PREDICTABILITY BECOMES LESS CERTAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A  
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS  
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO SWING BACK  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO  
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..  
 
DESPITE DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT  
AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
FRIDAY PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S PAIRED WITH HEAT INDICES  
AROUND 100, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY  
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, BUT WILL QUICKLY  
REBOUND BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES.  
 
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO TREND  
SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-  
14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK (JUL 17-23) HIGHLIGHTING A 33-50% CHANCE  
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
NMA  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WILL SERVE AS  
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS, OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF STORMS, EXPECT VFR  
CONDITIONS AND A MODEST SSW/S BREEZE TO PREVAIL. GUSTS TO AROUND  
20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE  
WILL BE A COUPLE POTENTIAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON  
STATION. THE FIRST WILL BE WITH ONGOING STORMS SAGGING SOUTH INTO  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN  
REACHING THE TERMINALS, BUT THEY MAY REACH PIA/BMI AROUND 06/07Z  
AND PERSIST A COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED  
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND AGAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE FURTHER NORTH AT PIA/BMI.  
 
DEUBELBEISS  
 
 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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