350  
FXUS63 KILX 192005  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
305 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER MAP IN THE  
REGION. LOW IS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH  
CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS, AND KEEPING  
SOME OF THE CLOUDS IN PLACE AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT  
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUNSET APPROACHES, THE CU FIELD WILL CLEAR,  
LEAVING THE CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 GOING INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. SOME SCATTERED RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE SE, SOUTH OF  
I-70...BUT OTHERWISE DRY. THAT SLIVER OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN  
ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION.  
 
THAT SAME LOW IS STILL DEEPENING SLOWLY, AND THE INCREASING  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS, EVEN KEEPING SOME OF THE GUSTS IN THE EAST, THOUGH LIKELY  
TO BE LESS PERSISTENT. TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLIER UNDER  
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY A FEW DEGREES. FOR  
TOMORROW, THAT SAME SLIVER OF SHOWERS PIVOTS AROUND THE  
LOW...COMING UP CLOSE TO THE IL/IN BORDER FROM THE EAST. SO FAR,  
HAVE MINIMAL POPS AGAINST IN IN THE EAST... BUT WILL POTENTIALLY  
BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE  
WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE GUSTY TOMORROW, THE  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH SUNSHINE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN  
TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THAT SYSTEM WILL GENERATE THE NEXT FEW  
SYSTEMS THAT IMPACT THE REGION. AFTER THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO  
THE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AND  
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN AGAIN. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MOVE INTO THE  
70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE WESTERN LOW SPINS OFF THE FIRST  
OF TWO WAVES OF ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE LOWS RIPPLING INTO THE  
PLAINS, AND A SHOWER OR TWO MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL FOR MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS  
QUICK ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT OF THIS SERIES OF SMALL WAVES, THE  
FORECAST REMAINS WET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FINALLY DRYING OUT AT  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
CEILINGS IMPROVING, BUT TO THE NW, ANY CLEARING IS RAPIDLY FILLED  
WITH CU. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS CLOUDS  
PUSH OUT TO THE EAST. MOST CIGS ON THE MVFR/VFR CUSP, AND WINDS  
ARE GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30KTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OUT OF THE  
NORTH. KEEPING THE MENTION OF LLWS WITH THE LOW TO THE SE, THE NNE  
WINDS AT 2000FT WILL GET UP TO AROUND 40-45KTS. MAY HAVE IT IN  
THE TAFS A LITTLE LONGER THAN NECESSARY, AS THE MODEL BLENDS ARE  
STARTING TO GET PATCHY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NEXT ISSUANCE  
CAREFULLY.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HJS  
LONG TERM...HJS  
AVIATION...HJS  
 
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