616
FXUS63 KILX 221110
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
610 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK,
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM, WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING A BIT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND MILD DAYS.
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE FALL HARVEST SEASON IN ILLINOIS WHICH
IS APPROACHING 75% OF CROPS (CORN AND SOYBEANS) HARVESTED.
A 1023-1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
IL/MO WAS PROVIDING NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. HAD A
FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8-9K FT BASES) AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN CWA SINCE THIS PAST EVENING AND DISSIPATING AS THEY
MOVED SE INTO CENTRAL IL WITH A FEW PATCHES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IN. TEMPS OVER CWA WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER
50S WITH BMI 55F AND CMI 54F. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE
558 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND 565 DECAMETER 500
LOW (SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WITH 65 MPH WINDS 245 MILES
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MA) WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STAYS NEAR IL, AND HAVE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL LATE THIS WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS TO
APPROACH 588 DECAMETERS OR HIGHER ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS (CALM WINDS OVER THE
IL RIVER VALLEY) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, WITH A FEW UPPER 70S
FROM PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD WEST. FAIR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S, COOLEST IN EASTERN IL WITH PATCHY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG NEAR WABASH RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH SE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, COOLEST IN EASTERN
IL. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EASTERN IL AND 45-50F
OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY FROM I-55 WEST.
SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THOUGH GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHEAST IL. SSE WINDS SAT AND SSW ON
SUNDAY BE GENERALLY STAYING LESS THAN 10 MPH. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY AND 75-80F ON SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS
NORTH OF CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS AND MILD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMEST FROM SPRINGFIELD SW.
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON/TUE WHILE COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IL MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL IL
MON NIGHT AND TUE. BRUNT OF MODELS STILL KEEPING CWA FAIRLY DRY
MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH QPF NORTH OF AREA. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SOME LIGHT QPF NORTHERN CWA ON TUE. THE ECMWF-AI AND
ECWMF-ENS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER CENTRAL IL WITH ITS
LIGHT QPF NORTH/NW OF CWA MON NIGHT/TUE. BLENDED FORECAST
CURRENTLY IS GOING DRY OVER MUCH OF AREA THRU WED WITH JUST
LIGHT POPS 15% NORTH OF GALESBURG AND LACON TUE MORNING. NBM
HIGHS TUE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM QUINCY TO
BLOOMINGTON NORTH AND LOWER 70S SOUTH WITH MILDEST TEMPS NEAR
75F FROM HIGHWAY 50 SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN IL. HIGHS WED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S, EXCEPT NEAR 70F FROM HIGHWAY 50 SOUTH. A BIT
MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THU. A STRONGER WX
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BY NEXT THU POSSIBLY
BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IF IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27-31ST
HAS 50-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS IL AND
33-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT TRENDING
NEAR NORMAL IN FAR EASTERN/SE IL. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT
29-NOV 4TH HAS 55-65% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
IL (HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST IL) AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AUTEN
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