795  
FXUS63 KILX 092315  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
515 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019  
 
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND  
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. MUCH COLDER  
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE  
TEENS TO LOW 20S AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS  
TO LOW TEENS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019  
 
AS OF 3 P.M. A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR I-57 PUSHING RAPIDLY EASTWARD,  
WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A HISTORY OF SNOW SHOWERS IS TRAILING  
THE SURFACE FRONT, HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED  
THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE MAIN LIFT SHIFTS  
NORTHWARD. STILL, COULD BE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WELL BEHIND THE  
FRONT, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW NORTH OF I-74 EARLY THIS EVENING.  
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 20 MPH WNW  
WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH NOTED WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MASS AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
RESULT IN LESS WIND, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND HIGHS NEAR TO  
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019  
 
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO  
MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN I-80 AND I-74 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING  
FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW, BUT OTHERWISE ANY SIGNIFICANT  
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THROUGH  
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH PROPAGATING OUT OF THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO  
SATURDAY, THEN A STRONGER DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING OUT OF THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES COULD ARRIVE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS, RUN-  
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH THESE EXTENDED FORECAST  
DISTURBANCES SO CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS AT THIS  
TIME. AFTER THE MIDWEEK COLD TEMPERATURES, NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019  
 
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS  
LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO CONTINUE  
GUSTING INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN  
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY  
ENDED BEHIND THE FRONT, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING PATCHES, BUT  
THE TREND SHOULD BE UP TO MORE SOLID MVFR UNTIL SKIES EVENTUALLY  
SCATTER LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BACK TO VFR.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...37  
SHORT TERM...37  
LONG TERM...37  
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS  
 
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