354
FXUS63 KILX 192333
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
633 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINLY
NORTH OF PEORIA THIS EVENING. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN, THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MOST OF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT SOME
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH LOWS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
WINTER APPEARS TO BE MAKING IT'S LAST GASP THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS HALF OF OUR
CWA, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST IL THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
EVENING, BUT REMAIN STEADY.
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS
KEPT PRECIP AT BAY FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KNOX, STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. THAT TREND
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. A MUCH STRONGER
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES BY JUST SOUTH OF ILLINOIS. THE
BAND OF FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
COLUMN STRETCHING/COOLING WITH THAT PERIOD OF OMEGA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE FLAKES COULD BE BIG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME SLIPPERY/SLUSHY CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS ON
TUESDAY, SO SOME IMPACTS COULD OCCUR. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW
ACCUM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF I-70, WHERE GRASSY ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LATE SEASON EVENT, WHICH SOMETIMES
WARRANTS A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED
IMPACTS ON AREA ROADS FOR THE MOST PART, WE COLLABORATED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S, BUT CLOUD COVER
AND STEADY WINDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY FROST POTENTIAL. HIGHS
TOMORROW COULD BE LIMITED TO RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, AS OUTLINED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S FORECAST. FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED BY HOW LATE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, BUT FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD STILL DAMAGE
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING DURING THE
EVENING, BUT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL EAST OF SHELBYVILLE TO
CHAMPAIGN COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ON GRASSY AND/OR
ELEVATED SURFACES. GROUND TEMPS IN THAT AREA ARE EVEN WARMER THAN
W OF I-55, SO ROADS SHOULD MELT THE SNOW AS IT FALLS TUESDAY
EVENING.
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS RECOVER INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE DAY, SO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER,
THOSE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WED EVE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LATE
WED NIGHT WE BE A BETTER SETUP FOR FROST TO DEVELOP ON OUTDOOR
OBJECTS. ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
WED NIGHTS COLD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEPARTS TO TOWARD THE EAST COAST. SOUTHERLY
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AS WELL. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH LIKELY RAIN SOUTH OF I-72 FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 0.25" FOR THE MOST PART, AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY WILL SEE RAIN DEPARTING TO THE EAST, BUT A WET MORNING IS
STILL POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE NICE SPRING DAYS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND LOWER 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
EALRY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL SITES REPORTING GUSTY NW WINDS. THE
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
CONTINUATION OF N/NW WINDS OF 8-12KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN/LOWER TONIGHT:
HOWEVER, MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS AND STEADY
PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HRRR, HAVE INTRODUCED -RA/SN AT KPIA BY 10Z...THEN FURTHER E/SE TO
KDEC AND KCMI BY 14Z. ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS, CEILINGS WILL
QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL INITIALLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON APR 19 2021
RECORD LOW HIGH 4/20 RECORD LOW 4/21
PEORIA.......37/1918.................28/1943
SPRINGFIELD..38/1918.................28/1904
LINCOLN......38/1918.................28/1982
GALESBURG....39/2013.................23/1904
DECATUR......43/1959.................27/1901
URBANA.......43/1978.................26/1904
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
SYNOPSIS...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...BARNES
CLIMATE...25
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