172  
FXUS63 KILX 201748  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1148 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO  
THE FAR SE KILX CWA AND TO HIGHLIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALSO CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY  
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE SINCE TEMPS  
HAD ALREADY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY  
FURTHER N/NW THROUGH NOON AS SOME SECONDARY/UNTREATED ROADS COULD  
REMAIN SLICK AS TEMPS HOVER A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING.  
LOOKING UPSTREAM, VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE  
VEERED TO THE SW. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE WIND  
SHIFT REACHES CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING MID TO  
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED IT FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY  
MORNING, AS IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AS MOST  
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXITING THE REGION, IT MAY BE CANCELLED  
EARLIER THAN 18Z IF TEMPS INCREASE AND THERE ARE NO ISSUES ON  
ROADWAYS.  
 
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH  
THE MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR MANY  
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE LOW CORE BEGINS TO MOVE  
THROUGH IOWA, A DRY SLOT HAS STARTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS STARTING TO BREAKDOWN CLOUD  
HEIGHTS AND DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF ICE PARTICLE FORMATION. ONCE  
FORMATION IS COMPLETELY DESTROYED, ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION  
THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO A DRIZZLE TYPE. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THIS WILL CONTINUE THE  
FREEZING ASPECT OF THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF I-70 REMAIN STEADY JUST AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, WITH REPORTS OF  
RAINFALL COMING IN FROM PLACES LIKE EFFINGHAM TO LAWRENCEVILLE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE,  
BEGINNING THE MELTING PROCESS OF ICY ROADWAYS. RAIN AND DRIZZLE  
HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME  
LINGERING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY,  
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER SPREADS OVERHEAD MID-AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH  
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, ROADS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH NO RE-FREEZE  
OVERNIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER  
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE INTO THE MIDWEST TO END THE WORK WEEK,  
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE ROCKIES FOR A COUPLE OF  
DAYS BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TO PICK UP MOISTURE  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL, SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20KTS AND GUSTS  
UPWARDS OF 25KTS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS  
TIGHTEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,  
RAMPING WINDS UP TO 25-35KTS SUSTAINED AND UPWARDS OF 45KT GUSTS.  
ALONG WITH WARM, MOIST, SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW, I INCREASED THE AREA  
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SOME OF THIS AREA COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS STATED BY SPC'S OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO  
NOT DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR WIND PRODUCTS, HOWEVER AT  
THIS TIME WE WILL HOLD OFF. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION AND PULLS OUT OF THE MIDWEST, LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL  
IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-72, HOWEVER ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY AND BEGIN NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THE  
FREQUENT SYSTEMS LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM  
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS  
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE INITIALLY S/SE, BUT ONCE THEY  
VEER TO SW THIS AFTERNOON...VISBYS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY. BASED ON  
HRRR FORECAST, IT APPEARS VISBYS WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT ALL  
SITES AFTER 21-22Z. DESPITE THE IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS, CEILINGS  
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS  
TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON NAM 900-950MB  
LAYER RH PROGS, THINK CEILINGS WILL RAISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY  
BY 03Z AT KSPI...THEN BY 05Z FURTHER NORTHEAST AT KCMI. AFTER  
THAT, CEILINGS WILL SCATTER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-  
036>038-040-041.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BARNES  
SHORT TERM...BAKER  
LONG TERM...BAKER  
AVIATION...BARNES  
 
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