350
FXUS63 KILX 192005
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
305 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER MAP IN THE
REGION. LOW IS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS, AND KEEPING
SOME OF THE CLOUDS IN PLACE AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUNSET APPROACHES, THE CU FIELD WILL CLEAR,
LEAVING THE CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF I-55 GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SCATTERED RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE SE, SOUTH OF
I-70...BUT OTHERWISE DRY. THAT SLIVER OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
THAT SAME LOW IS STILL DEEPENING SLOWLY, AND THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, EVEN KEEPING SOME OF THE GUSTS IN THE EAST, THOUGH LIKELY
TO BE LESS PERSISTENT. TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLIER UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY A FEW DEGREES. FOR
TOMORROW, THAT SAME SLIVER OF SHOWERS PIVOTS AROUND THE
LOW...COMING UP CLOSE TO THE IL/IN BORDER FROM THE EAST. SO FAR,
HAVE MINIMAL POPS AGAINST IN IN THE EAST... BUT WILL POTENTIALLY
BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY AND A LITTLE GUSTY TOMORROW, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN
TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THAT SYSTEM WILL GENERATE THE NEXT FEW
SYSTEMS THAT IMPACT THE REGION. AFTER THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN AGAIN. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MOVE INTO THE
70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE WESTERN LOW SPINS OFF THE FIRST
OF TWO WAVES OF ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE LOWS RIPPLING INTO THE
PLAINS, AND A SHOWER OR TWO MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
QUICK ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT OF THIS SERIES OF SMALL WAVES, THE
FORECAST REMAINS WET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FINALLY DRYING OUT AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
CEILINGS IMPROVING, BUT TO THE NW, ANY CLEARING IS RAPIDLY FILLED
WITH CU. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS CLOUDS
PUSH OUT TO THE EAST. MOST CIGS ON THE MVFR/VFR CUSP, AND WINDS
ARE GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30KTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OUT OF THE
NORTH. KEEPING THE MENTION OF LLWS WITH THE LOW TO THE SE, THE NNE
WINDS AT 2000FT WILL GET UP TO AROUND 40-45KTS. MAY HAVE IT IN
THE TAFS A LITTLE LONGER THAN NECESSARY, AS THE MODEL BLENDS ARE
STARTING TO GET PATCHY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NEXT ISSUANCE
CAREFULLY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS
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