052
FXUS63 KILX 050529
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1229 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A (20-40%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED STORMS AFFECT THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
INNOCUOUS FUNNEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL.
- A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED
WITH THE RETURN OF SEASONABLY MOIST HUMIDITY AND DEWPOINTS OF 65
TO 70 OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK, BROAD TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE HAVE ALLOWED A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. WITH 500-100 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING AND WEAK SHEAR, STORMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK BUT SLOW MOVING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS, ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY MUCH LESS, WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD FADE AWAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH TONIGHT BEING MAINLY
DRY. ENOUGH EASTERLY WIND, AROUND 5 MPH, AND SOME LINGERING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY COULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF DIURNALLY MODULATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS
AND REMNANTS OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINING. HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATE PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE, SO HAVE POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT IN WESTERN TO 30
PERCENT IN EASTERN IL.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY, FOR DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STRONGER TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS FROM LOWER 80S TUESDAY, TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH THE TROUGHING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NUDGING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR RAIN,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY AT TIMES DUE TO THE
LOW MAGNITUDE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THAT MAY CREEP
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-72 CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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