676  
FXUS63 KILX 111748  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1148 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST PROJECTIONS SHOW 5-7  
INCHES ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY...TAPERING DOWN TO  
AROUND 1 INCH ALONG A SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS LINE.  
 
- A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN A BAND  
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-70 WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE  
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL OCCUR.  
 
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A MIXTURE  
OF RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 927 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN GRAZING THE FAR SOUTHEAST EDGE OF  
THE FORECAST AREA HAS LARGELY MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA  
THIS HOUR. CAN'T DISCOUNT A LITTLE MORE PRECIP CLIPPING THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THE POP'S FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE  
BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE REMAINDER  
OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
STARTING TO HAVE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE  
LAST COUPLE MODEL CYCLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD  
TREND IN QPF OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, REFLECTED IN BOTH  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. MORNING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE  
HASN'T SHOWN TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONSET TIME, BUT SOME ARE  
SHOWING A QUICKER CUTOFF AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN  
ILLINOIS. NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME  
AS WE AWAIT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING GUIDANCE, BUT AMOUNTS MAY  
BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING MESSAGED.  
 
GEELHART  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED STATIONARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY  
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO KENTUCKY TODAY.  
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE HEAVIEST/STEADIEST PRECIPITATION  
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS AS FAR NORTH  
AS I-70. SNOW IS NOT CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE FAR  
SE KILX CWA: HOWEVER, 09Z/3AM OBS FROM BOTH SALEM AND MARION ARE  
REPORTING SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND A CONSISTENT  
SIGNAL FROM THE CAMS, THINK LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL SEE A FEW  
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO  
1/2 INCH.  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE  
THAT WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND BRING WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
TO THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODELS  
ARE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING SCATTERED LIGHT  
SNOW-SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT,  
WITH THE SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER AS IT SPREADS  
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A  
MOSTLY SNOW EVENT ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A TAYLORVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN  
LINE WITH A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD I-70.  
FURTHER SOUTH, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE SOUTH OF I-70.  
 
WPC PROBABILISTIC WINTER PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH  
PROBABILITY (50-70% CHANCE) OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS  
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN  
EFFECT. SNOW AMOUNTS STEADILY DECREASE FURTHER E/SE WITH AMOUNTS  
OF 4-5 INCHES ALONG I-55 AND JUST 1-2 INCHES ALONG A SHELBYVILLE  
TO DANVILLE LINE. ICING WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ALONG AND NORTH OF  
I-70 WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY AND WET...AND  
WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG, DO NOT THINK  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE A CONCERN. NONETHELESS, SNOW-COVERED  
AND SLICK ROADS WILL BE COMMON EVERYWHERE NORTH OF I-70 BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY  
COMES TO AN END TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  
 
BARNES  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF  
THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE DAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY, BUT  
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD BY  
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE  
TEENS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH OF I-70.  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY  
CALM, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER  
THE FRESH SNOW COVER THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF THE I-70  
CORRIDOR. A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS THE 00Z  
FEB 11 NBM SHOWS A 10-15% CHANCE OF LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES  
(20-30%) ALONG/NORTH OF I-74. AFTER CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS,  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL  
HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SNOW COVER FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL COME INTO THE  
PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AS SOUTHERLY  
FLOW INCREASES, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-70 AND THE MIDDLE 40S FURTHER SOUTH. ANY SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEREFORE INITIALLY BE MINIMAL. AS THE SYSTEM  
EXITS AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE MIXED PRECIP  
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DURING  
WHICH TIME A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES  
WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS  
AND LOWER 20S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.  
 
BARNES  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. LATEST HREF OUTPUT SHOWS INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR  
CEILINGS BY 06Z/MIDNIGHT AT KPIA AND KBMI, WITH THE TERMINALS TO  
THE SOUTH (KSPI, KDEC, KCMI) MORE LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS  
NEAR 12Z/6AM. AS CEILINGS LOWER AND VISIBILITY GETS REDUCED WITH  
THE ONSET OF SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, HAVE SIGNALED IFR  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.  
 
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE N/NE WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT, THEN WILL  
VEER TO E/NE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
MJA  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY  
FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY  
FOR ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066.  
 

 
 

 
 
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