350
FXUS63 KILX 060453
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS TURN BLUSTERY AND SHARPLY COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY, THIS WILL FALL
AS RAIN, BUT IT MAY MIX WITH SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW EVERYWHERE, BUT THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (20%) WILL BE NORTH OF ROUGHLY I-74.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS HAVE BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BE EAST OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE BY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS ALL THIS WELL,
SO NO UPDATED NEEDED TONIGHT.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY I-70 EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS UPSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL, SO DESPITE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY FALLEN TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE AHEAD OF IT SEVERAL SITES ARE
70+. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EASE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PRAIRIE STATE TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY,
WINDS WILL EASE AND, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO AROUND FREEZING BY SUNRISE.
***** WARMING BACK UP TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY *****
WEAK RIDGING WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE DAY, AND CONSEQUENTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND GUST OUTPUT FROM
VARIOUS CAMS SUGGESTS GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH, BUT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, RAP, AND GFS SUGGEST PBL MEAN (TOP OF
CHANNEL) WINDS AROUND 20 (30) KT, SUPPORTING 15-20 MPH WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED/SPORADIC GUSTS 30+ MPH WHICH ALIGNS WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL
MIXING MAINTAINED BY THOSE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S - GIVING
FRIDAY A LAUNCH PAD TO BECOME THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MIGHT BE CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS SLATED TO CROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR, NBM GIVES A 40-60% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 70.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LIGHTNING
STRIKE WITH THAT ACTIVITY, BUT THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW (LESS THAN
10%) GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
***** RAIN (AND SNOW?) SATURDAY EVENING, TURNING COLDER SUNDAY *****
AFTER A BREEZY DAY CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ON FRIDAY, THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOR MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS
ANOTHER, MORE POTENT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A COLD
FRONT NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO STRUGGLE WITH RESOLVING THE
PRECISE POSITION OF INITIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LARGE, RAPIDLY
MOVING BAROCLINIC FRONT, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES PLUNGING
BEHIND THAT LOW, WE COULD WIND UP WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW
IN A PORTION OF THE AREA (HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF
ROUGHLY I-74), WITH GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING COUPLED WITH A
SATURATED DGZ. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF (1) DEWPOINTS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING/WETBULBING
AND (2) WARM GROUND SURFACES SHOULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATIONS. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, NBM AND LREF GIVE 15-20%
AND 20-30% CHANCES, RESPECTIVELY, FOR ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF
ROUGHLY I-74. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH LREF MEAN 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10 DEGC BY
LUNCHTIME SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICTING A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ADVERTISE MEAN PBL WINDS AROUND 25 KT, GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MAKE FOR DOWNRIGHT COLD FALL
WEATHER. BY DAWN SUNDAY MORNING WHEN CHURCHGOERS ARE HEADED OUT,
THE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED, BUT EXPECT WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
***** COLD START TO THE WEEK, BUT TEMPS REBOUND *****
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO GO
COMPLETELY CALM BY THE LOOKS OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SPOTS; OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
HAS LOWS IN THE LOW 20S, BUT NBM ADVERTISES A 25-35% CHANCE FOR SUB
20 DEGREE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-70. SIMILAR PROBABILITIES EXIST
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THINKING IS THAT, AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW MAY JUST
PICK BACK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING,
PREVENTING LOWS FROM FALLING QUITE AS FAR. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ONCE AGAIN SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
SO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER ANOTHER DAY OF WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH MAY BE ON TAP, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY LOOKING WARMER AS 850MB
TEMPS WARM TO 8-10 DEGC BY EVENING. NBM MEAN BRINGS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE'LL EVEN STAND A 20-40% CHANCE OF
REACHING 60. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 10% TUESDAY
AND BEYOND.
BUMGARDNER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, THEN HIGH CIRRUS ADVECTS OVER THE SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ADVECT OVER THE SITES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. PIA
WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS FIRST LATE TOMORROW EVENING AND ALONG WITH
THAT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO, ADDING A PROB30 FOR
PIA AFTER 04Z, BUT CIGS WILL ONLY DROP TO 6KFT. ALL OTHER SITES
WILL HAVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 10-12KFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THEN DIRECTION WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHERLY FOR TOMORROW EVENING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH GUST UP TO 20KTS. TOMORROW EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MORE WITH GUSTS OF 22-25KTS AT
ALL SITES.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page