617
FXUS63 KILX 042131
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EAST OF I-55 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE OH/WV/KY BORDER AND RIDGING SW
INTO NE AR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ND INTO NW SD.
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL ENJOYING AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY WHILE BROKEN
CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE OVER SOUTHERN IL FROM I-64 SOUTH. TEMPS AT 3 PM
RANGED FROM 39-43F WITH SSW TO SW WINDS 5-15 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAWN
MONDAY WHILE WEAK WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING TONIGHT AND
LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS OF 15-22F AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT PCPN MON MORNING. HAVE
LOW POPS OF LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHEAST IL AFTER 9 AM MONDAY MORNING
AND 20-30% POPS LIGHT RAIN EAST OF I-55 BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 9 AM MON
IN SOUTHEAST IL LIMITING CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH COOLEST READINGS NEAR
THE INDIANA BORDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY WITH
SSW WINDS BRINGING MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHICH IS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL
DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY.
HAVE 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MON EVENING EAST OF I-55 WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE. THEN
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT PASSES BY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, LESS
THAN A TENTH INCH OVER SOUTHEAST IL. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30F NW OF LINCOLN AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN
SOUTHEAST IL WHERE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST MO
EARLY TUE EVENING AND OF SOUTHEAST MO AND INTO THE CENTRAL OH
RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN WED. THIS WILL SPREAD CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
BACK NORTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL
DURING TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING AND DIMINISH IN EASTERN/SE IL
DURING OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. HIGHS
TUE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, BUT RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW
OF THE IL RIVER, TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST OF I-70.
A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE EJECTS NE FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
WED NIGHT AND NEAR CENTRAL/SE IL BY MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THIS
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO PULL NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SE IL AND GIVING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU EVENING. MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH
TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY SOUTHEAST IL TO GET INTO WARM SECTOR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS THU RANGE FROM 45-50F
NORTH/NW CWA AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST IL. FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY KNOX, STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
PCPN THU NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF STORM SYSTEM WHILE AREAS FURTHER
NORTH IN IA/WI AND NORTHERN IL HAVE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF
LIGHT PCPN LINGERING FRI MORNING, THEN DRIER FRI AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNSET FRI. TEMPS COOL BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S CENTRAL IL AND
MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST IL
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER IL FRI NIGHT AND SHIFTING EAST OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO BRING DRY WX THOUGH AN
INVERSION MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
EJECTING NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS WEEKEND AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND NEXT
SUNDAY. MUCH OF AREA STILL APPEARS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
CHANCES THEN BUT NORTHERN/NW CWA HAS MIXED OF SNOW/RAIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS
THROUGH 18Z/NOON MONDAY. SW WINDS 8-13 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO
VEER SOUTH AND DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS BY EARLY EVENING AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS DURING MONDAY MORNING. MINIMUM LLWS CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY IN FAR NORTHEAST IL NEAR CHICAGO AREA AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING BUT MAY ARRIVE MON AFTERNOON JUST AFTER THIS 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07
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