491  
FXUS63 KILX 161543  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
THE WEAKENING PRESSURE CENTER OF FORMER HURRICANE BARRY HAS MOVED  
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER  
OVER THE AREA AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, ASIDE  
FROM A SEMI PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE ILLINOIS  
RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, WITH  
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LIKELY WEST  
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER UP TO AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES IN  
EASTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, SOME SPOTTY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON HEATING PRODUCES SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD DUMP A RAPID INCH OR MORE.  
UPDATES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TO REFINE SHORT TERM POP TRENDS FOR  
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION BANDS AND TO REFINE QPF AMOUNTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL STORM  
BARRY CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING, WITH BANDS OF  
PRECIP PUSHING INTO IL. BANDS OF PRECIP ON RADAR SLOW WITH  
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION AS THEY ERODE SLIGHTLY. BARRY HAS TURNED OUT  
TO BE A LITTLE LESS EFFICIENT WITH PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUSLY  
THOUGHT AND CENTRAL IL AT LEAST HAS BEEN PULLED FROM EXCESSIVE  
RAIN OUTLOOKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO FURTHER  
INHIBITING SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT  
BEST, AND THUNDER MAY BE SPARSE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, WHEN SOME  
DIURNAL SWING WILL HELP STEEPEN THE LLVL LAPSE RATES AND INFLUENCE  
MUCAPES. OVERALL, A MUGGY DAY FOR CENTRAL IL. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES  
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL BARRY MOVES OUT TO  
THE NE BY WED MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND  
POTENTIALLY CLEARING SKIES ARE SETTING UP FOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL,  
HIGHEST ACROSS THE HALF OF THE STATE. NOT AN ABSOLUTE BY ANY  
STRETCH, BUT PUTTING IN A PATCHY MENTION FOR NOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
WEDNESDAY BEGINS AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE  
REMAINS OF BARRY MOVE OUT TO THE NE. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT  
HELD TO THE UPPER 80S/90S, JUST THE BEGINNING FOR THE HEAT THAT  
FOLLOWS. WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT INDICES WILL  
PUSH 100F IN A FEW LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY. THAT HEAT EXPANDS  
AND RAMPS UP FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES  
APPROACHING 110F FOR SEVERAL DAYS WARRANTS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WATCH THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF ILX  
CWA. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF THINGS WILL POTENTIALLY THREATEN THE 4  
DAY HEAT WAVE. NEED TO WATCH FOR MCS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH... AND  
THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING DRAGGED THROUGH THE REGION ON  
SUNDAY. EITHER WAY, HOT AND MUGGY IS MOST DEFINITELY THE MAJOR  
STORY FOR THE FORECAST RUN. THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME OF THE EVENT  
WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK. MAJOR FLAW IN THE BLENDED MODELS AT  
THIS POINT IS THE EXTENDED...SO FAR, SHOWING NO SIGN OF THE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES COOLER ON  
THE OTHER SIDE OF SUNDAY LIKELY DROPPED CONSIDERABLY BY  
CLIMATOLOGY. SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS  
PARTICULAR FORECAST RUN BEYOND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BARRY WILL  
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL  
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE  
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH PIA AT IFR CEILING.  
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY  
TODAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE PERIOD, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY WHEN  
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. CAMS ARE POINTING TOWARD MAINLY  
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH FOR PRECIP  
CHANCES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE  
CENTER, THEN SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE  
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD  
TAPER OFF IN ITS WAKE.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY  
EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>052.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...37  
SHORT TERM...HJS  
LONG TERM...HJS  
AVIATION...SHIMON  
 
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