543
FXUS63 KILX 030834
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY
BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. 08Z/3AM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ONE STORM
COMPLEX WELL TO THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...WHILE
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS FORM UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE CELLS ARE TRACKING E/SE AND THE REMNANTS
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY REACH THE N/NW KILX CWA IN THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS RE-
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS HAVE SHIFTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE, WITH
HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPES REACHING 3000-3500J/KG ALONG THE I-72
CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES, WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND THE CORRESPONDING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25-30KT. GIVEN GOOD
INSTABILITY, BUT WEAK SHEAR...THINK SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CELLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, INDICATIVE OF
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION, SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. BASED
ON MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A STRONG EMPHASIS ON THE THE HRW NSSL,
HAVE FOCUSED LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF
I-70 BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE STORMS END, PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE NORTH OF I-70 LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT. 00Z JUNE 3 MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN WARM/DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT,
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TROPICS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT THIS SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE MOST
FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
LIKELY BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020
MODEST SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THINK THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND MAKE ANOTHER PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, THEN SOME TYPE OF
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE
WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE DISTURBED BY STORMS IN THE AREA. STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BARNES
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page