172
FXUS63 KILX 201748
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO
THE FAR SE KILX CWA AND TO HIGHLIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALSO CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE SINCE TEMPS
HAD ALREADY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
FURTHER N/NW THROUGH NOON AS SOME SECONDARY/UNTREATED ROADS COULD
REMAIN SLICK AS TEMPS HOVER A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO THE SW. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE WIND
SHIFT REACHES CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED IT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, AS IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXITING THE REGION, IT MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLIER THAN 18Z IF TEMPS INCREASE AND THERE ARE NO ISSUES ON
ROADWAYS.
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR MANY
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE LOW CORE BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH IOWA, A DRY SLOT HAS STARTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS STARTING TO BREAKDOWN CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF ICE PARTICLE FORMATION. ONCE
FORMATION IS COMPLETELY DESTROYED, ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO A DRIZZLE TYPE. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
FREEZING ASPECT OF THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 REMAIN STEADY JUST AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, WITH REPORTS OF
RAINFALL COMING IN FROM PLACES LIKE EFFINGHAM TO LAWRENCEVILLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE,
BEGINNING THE MELTING PROCESS OF ICY ROADWAYS. RAIN AND DRIZZLE
HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
LINGERING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY,
BEFORE DRIER WEATHER SPREADS OVERHEAD MID-AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, ROADS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH NO RE-FREEZE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE INTO THE MIDWEST TO END THE WORK WEEK,
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE ROCKIES FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TO PICK UP MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20KTS AND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25KTS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
RAMPING WINDS UP TO 25-35KTS SUSTAINED AND UPWARDS OF 45KT GUSTS.
ALONG WITH WARM, MOIST, SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW, I INCREASED THE AREA
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SOME OF THIS AREA COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS STATED BY SPC'S OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO
NOT DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR WIND PRODUCTS, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME WE WILL HOLD OFF. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND PULLS OUT OF THE MIDWEST, LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL
IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-72, HOWEVER ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY AND BEGIN NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THE
FREQUENT SYSTEMS LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE INITIALLY S/SE, BUT ONCE THEY
VEER TO SW THIS AFTERNOON...VISBYS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY. BASED ON
HRRR FORECAST, IT APPEARS VISBYS WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT ALL
SITES AFTER 21-22Z. DESPITE THE IMPROVEMENT IN VISBYS, CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS
TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON NAM 900-950MB
LAYER RH PROGS, THINK CEILINGS WILL RAISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
BY 03Z AT KSPI...THEN BY 05Z FURTHER NORTHEAST AT KCMI. AFTER
THAT, CEILINGS WILL SCATTER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040-041.
UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARNES
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