101
FXUS63 KILX 281727
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1127 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WIND CHILLS
FALLING AS LOW AS 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES NEAR AND EAST OF I-55 THROUGH
MID MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURNING FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THE 09Z/3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE 1030-1033 MB CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OK/TEXAS AND RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE TROF WAS
OVER CENTRAL WI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. ALOFT A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A LARGE TROF WAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTHERN AMERICA WITH A STRONG 502
DECAMETER 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY CANADA
AND ITS PRONOUNCED TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 7-10K FT WAS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OVER SW IOWA, NORTHEAST HALF OF MO INTO MS RIVER VALLEY
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW IL AND GETTING INTO SCOTT COUNTY IL. VERY
COLD TEMPS WERE 4 ABOVE TO 8 BELOW ZERO OVER CENTRAL IL, THOUGH
PARIS GOT DOWN TO 12 BELOW AT 2 AM WITH COLDEST READINGS IN
EASTERN IL. CURRENTLY FLORA, ROBINSON AND PARIS WERE 8 BELOW AT 3
AM. WEST WINDS WERE LESS THAN 10 MPH BUT ENOUGH WIND TO LOWER WIND
CHILLS TO 5-20 BELOW ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS WERE 19 BELOW AT
FLORA, 18 BELOW RANTOUL, 16 BELOW AT CHAMPAIGN AND 15 BELOW
MATTOON.
WE CONTINUED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EAST OF THE IL
RIVER VALLEY FOR WIND CHILLS OF 10-20 BELOW ZERO INTO MID
MORNING. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS MODIFY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO BY LATE MORNING (10 AM) AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S, COLDEST IN EAST CENTRAL IL. WEST TO WSW WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING TO VEER WNW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER
10 MPH AFTER SUNSET AND TURN NNW TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS FOR A TIME AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW NE HALF OF CWA
AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SW HALF. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT, WITH WIND
CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 2 TO 12 BELOW, COLDEST IN EAST CENTRAL IL
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER EAST
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF VERMILION AND EDGAR COUNTIES
HAVE ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT INTO MID THU MORNING.
WE SHOULD SEE MORE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THU AS SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SHORT WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVING
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL DURING THU AFTERNOON. SW
CWA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING
WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO BE WEST/SW OF OUR CWA AS
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OK/AR ON THU.
HIGHS THU IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL, AND
NEAR 20F SOUTH OF I-70. VERY COLD THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ZERO TO 7
BELOW OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN
SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SOUTH. WIND CHILLS APPEARS TO GET A BIT
COLDER OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT REACHING 10-20 BELOW NORTH OF I-70 AND
MAY NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO MID FRI MORNING.
A VERY STRONG 500 MB LOW/TROF TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING FRI NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO CENTRAL IL LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI NIGHT THOUGH BLENDED MODELS (NBM) POP STAY LESS THAN 15%.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIKELY SETS UP OFF THE SOUTH PART OF LAKE MI
AND COULD APPROACH FAR NE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. A CHUNK OF STRONG
1045-1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND RIDGE INTO IL
DURING THIS WEEKEND. THIS TO MAINTAIN THE FRIGID AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS FRI ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS
FRI NIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS OF 10-20
BELOW LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING SO ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HANDLING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH IT. THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THOUGH GFS
MODELS KEEPS LIGHT QPF NE OF IL. A STRONGER WX SYSTEM APPEARS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WED/FEB 4TH AND COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY MODIFY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 30S BY NEXT
WED.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY
4-10TH HAS A 33-40% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN EAST
CENTRAL AND SE IL (FROM I-57 EAST) AND TRENDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
WEST OF I-57. CPC HAS A 33-40% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PRAIRIE STATE.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL BE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LESSEN AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH AT TIMES, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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