393  
FXUS63 KILX 071035  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
535 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES TODAY, THOUGH DEWPOINTS  
IN THE 70S WILL KEEP THE AIR FEELING UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST TIMES BEING THIS MORNING  
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A LITTLE MESSY THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THAT  
THE WEST TO EAST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED  
FROM ROUGHLY KIRKSVILLE, MO TO EVANSVILLE, IN AS OF 2 AM. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS COINCIDE WITH THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH IS PRIMARILY  
BEING FED BY A 35 KT LLJ THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH THE  
STORMS MOVING ESE OR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THE SPC HREF LPMM HAS  
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 2-3"+ OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO  
WESTERN IL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY, WHICH ISN'T SURPRISING WITH  
PWATS OF 2-2.5" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS BETWEEN 4-4.5 KM. ALTHOUGH THE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA, WE WILL NEED TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAVIEST STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS,  
ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL IN SOUTHERN SANGAMON AND CHRISTIAN  
COUNTIES YESTERDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE  
WEATHER WITH THIS ROUND AS SHEAR IS WEAK, THOUGH A FEW OF THESE  
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS  
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TOWARD IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY  
SHOULD WANE SOME WITH THE LOSS OF THE LLJ LATER THIS MORNING, BUT A  
FEW SUBTLE WAVES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM  
CLUSTERS TO MIGRATE ALONG THE FRONT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO IOWA APPROACHES THE  
AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND SUITABLE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A  
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAPABLE  
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH  
PWATS REMAINING CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL SOMEWHERE  
FROM A QUINCY TO MATTOON LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE  
CONSIDERED FOR SOME OF THESE COUNTIES AHEAD OF TONIGHT'S ROUND OF  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS FROM CONVECTION THIS  
MORNING/AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY, KEEPING SHOWER  
AND STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLE ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING  
UNCOMFORTABLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ACTING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE  
AREA AND PUTTING AN END TO PRECIPITATION. EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SETS  
UP THIS WEEKEND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH, BRINGING THE RETURN  
OF 60S DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY AND 50S BY SUNDAY. THE WEATHER LOOKS  
PRETTY BENIGN AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY CREEPING BACK IN BY  
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM NORTHERN  
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE  
MORNING HOURS, MAINLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN TAF SITES (SPI & DEC). MVFR TO IFR  
CEILINGS AND VISBYS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WINDS HAVE  
BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ROLLING IN  
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE  
BACK INTO VFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER  
CONDITIONS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY  
RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...NMB  
SHORT TERM...NMB  
LONG TERM...NMB  
AVIATION...NMB  
 
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