997  
FXUS63 KILX 202320  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
520 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020  
 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THE  
EVENING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
MAINLY BE IN TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
ILLINOIS RIVER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020  
 
A PERSISTENT BAND OF LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDS/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO  
IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO  
BLOOMINGTON/LINCOLN. MEANWHILE, A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH  
EVIDENT ON 21Z/3PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI IS  
TRIGGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE W/SW KILX CWA...PRIMARILY  
SOUTHWEST OF A MACOMB TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY  
DROP INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z/6PM: HOWEVER, THE BAND OF LAKE-  
ENHANCED FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE  
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM  
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN GALESBURG TO 18 DEGREES IN LAWRENCEVILLE. AS  
A 1040MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE  
NOTED ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S  
AND LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020  
 
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER-  
MAKER COMES INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF  
ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY  
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE A SEPARATE  
SHORT-WAVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TRACKS EASTWARD AS  
WELL. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE PLAINS,  
FORMING A DEEP/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW THAT WILL MEANDER ACROSS  
ILLINOIS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS  
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP WARM-ADVECTION PRECIP EASTWARD INTO THE  
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER  
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP UNTIL PERHAPS  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS  
AND STRONGER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, PRECIP CHANCES WILL  
INCREASE MARKEDLY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT STILL  
SLATED FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM  
OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX  
AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING WHEN TEMPS DROP BACK TO NEAR FREEZING.  
OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED...SO DESPITE AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS, EXPECTED LIQUID TOTALS WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS  
OF LESS THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT MELTING DURING THE DAY AS TEMPS  
WARM. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A RETURN TO MILD/DRY WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 40S  
SUNDAY/MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020  
 
SOME CLEARING TRYING TO TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH  
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL FADING OF THE CLOUD COVER VS. A  
WELL-ESTABLISHED CLEARING LINE. CEILINGS ALTERNATING BETWEEN MVFR  
AND A LOW LEVEL VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES, WHICH SHOULD BE  
THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATE EVENING, ALL  
SITES SHOULD BE VFR AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOVING OUT.  
QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BARNES  
SHORT TERM...BARNES  
LONG TERM...BARNES  
AVIATION...GEELHART  
 
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