392
FXUS63 KILX 140524
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1224 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION FOCUSING
ON SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- AFTER A COUPLE MORE MILD DAYS, A PREVIEW OF SUMMER WILL ARRIVE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
*** THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ***
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST, A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY REMAIN MEAGER FURTHER EAST, A 45-55KT
850MB JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS
MUCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 200-600J/KG ALONG/WEST OF A PEORIA TO
SPRINGFIELD LINE BY DAWN FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL HOVER IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF AN
APPROACHING FORCING MECHANISM AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. 12Z HRRR AND RRFS BOTH INDICATE CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD I-57 BY DAWN FRIDAY. THE
CONVECTION WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD AND EXIT THE EASTERN KILX CWA
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE BOARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MORNING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS, HAVE OPTED TO LOWER NBM HIGH TEMPS TO CLOSER MATCH
CONSALL READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S AROUND DANVILLE TO
THE UPPER 70S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.
*** PERIODIC STORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ***
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-72 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE AN UNSETTLED DAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WHILE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOKS PLACE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER WEST, SEVERAL MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS
SUGGEST AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG CONVECTION FURTHER EAST
INTO ILLINOIS...WITH THE COLORADO STATE MACHINE LEARNING
ALGORITHM INDICATING A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN MUCH-IMPROVED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF A FORCING MECHANISM, THINK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR,
AS THIS WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT RISK/EXTENT OF SEVERE ON
SATURDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SURGE BACK NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY,
LEADING TO A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY DAY. AFTER THAT, THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL MATERIALIZE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AMONG
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS, WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THE GFS INDICATES FROPA MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SOLUTION
MAY LIE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...WITH ROUND ONE OF STRONG
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI/IOWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPILLING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE KILX CWA MONDAY EVENING. THE LATEST DAY 6 SPC OUTLOOK HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...FEATURING A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SEVERE
ALONG/WEST OF I-55. IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES, ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE E/SE CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT DEPARTS INTO INDIANA. STAY TUNED TO
LATER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...NMA
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