507
FXUS63 KILX 221052
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WEST OF I-55 THIS MORNING
(30-40% CHANCE), THEN PROGRESS EAST OF I-55 IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (15-20% CHANCE). MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY FUELS
COMBINE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH, PARTICULARLY
EAST OF I-55 WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF I-72.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
IT'S BEEN AWHILE SINCE WE'VE HAD TO MONITOR RADAR IN REAL-TIME,
BUT THERE IS INDEED PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIP COMES COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARDS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. YESTERDAY'S HREF GUIDANCE
(21.12Z RUN) WAS FAIRLY BULLISH WITH MAINTAINING THE BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ILX CWA, BUT THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE
(22.00Z RUN) HAS TRENDED BACK IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST AND ENCOUNTER DRY AIR,
AS WELL AS LOSE THE NOCTURNAL LLJ FORCING. OVERALL, THERE'S BEEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST: SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 8AM-1PM (14Z- 18Z), THEN SHOWERS WEAKENING
EAST OF I-55 DURING THE AFTERNOON (AFTER 1PM/18Z). LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 0.10" WEST OF I-55, WHICH WON'T PUT
A DENT IN THE DROUGHT BUT WILL BE WELCOME NONETHELESS.
SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. WHILE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE RH
VALUES A TAD COMPARE TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THERE REMAINS CONCERN ABOUT
THE FIRE WX CONDITIONS TODAY BETWEEN THE DRY FUELS AND BREEZY
WINDS. CONCERN IS HIGHER EAST OF I-55 WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHTER AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IF AT ALL. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF I-55.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE CWA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT), PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY MIDDAY WED. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-70. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BACK INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA WED NIGHT, RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.
ERWIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
GUIDANCE IS FINALLY STARTING TO EXHIBIT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST, RESULTING IN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST EVOLUTION. THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, AND BY
THURS MORNING CENTRAL IL IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
EJECTING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE HAS THIS WAVE
PROVIDING ONE OF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WE'VE SEEN IN SEVERAL
WEEKS DURING THE THURS NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. THIS RAINFALL IS
STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK THE DROUGHT, WITH JUST A 10-30% CHANCE OF
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A HALF INCH (HIGHEST WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
FOLLOWING THAT DISTURBANCE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND, PUSHING ANY FRONTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
ILX CWA AND KEEPING THE AREA DRY SAT-SUN. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER
TO SEASONABLE VALUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE. IT
DOESN'T APPEAR THESE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR LONG,
THOUGH, AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BOOSTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S (PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 70S). THERE IS
THEN POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO EMERGE NEXT WEEK. MUCH IS
STILL TO BE DETERMINED IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS CENTRAL IL, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST EC
ENS HAS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM.
ERWIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 16-22Z. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING IN
TIME, SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY'LL EVEN
REACH KDEC OR KCMI, BUT FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH
SHOWERS AT EACH SITE. GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. A FRONT
MOVES IN LATE IN THE PERIOD, SWINGING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page