529  
FXUS63 KILX 291738  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1138 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S  
LIKELY BY SATURDAY.  
 
- THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR A WAVE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF  
I-72 FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.  
 
- THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY,  
THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOO SOON  
TO MAKE ANY DETERMINATIONS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE FLIPPED TO  
SOUTHERLY AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING A 40-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW  
MIX TOMORROW MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. CAMS  
HAVE BACKED OFF JUST A LITTLE BIT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL, AND WITH  
GENERALLY WEAK FORCING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE DOES NOT LOOK  
CONDUCIVE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL  
YOU LOOK AT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND  
EVEN FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS WAVE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.  
WE'LL WATCH FOR CONSISTENCY IN MODEL TRENDS BEFORE MAKING  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POP/PRECIP-TYPE FORECAST, BUT AT THIS  
POINT IMPACTS DUE TO WINTRY PRECIP ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
BUMGARDNER  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
ON THIS LAST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER, A HIGH PRESSURE REGIME IS  
IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP TODAY TO ABOVE  
NORMAL. HIGHS TO GET UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BY SATURDAY,  
HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 60 TO NEAR 70 AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 
TOMORROW MORNING COULD (40-60% CHANCE) SEE SOME WINTRY MIX MOVE  
THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES OVER THE  
REGION. TIMING FOR THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS FROM ~06Z TO 12Z  
FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.  
 
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY DOESN'T LOOK TO PACK AS HARD OF A PUNCH AS THE  
LAST ONE WE SAW. IT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL  
WITH A DROP FROM 70S TO 50S. IT DOES BRING A 50-60% CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY  
CONCLUSIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT FOR THAT SYSTEM.  
 
DELANEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS  
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL WAVE  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL  
LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT  
AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AND SUSTAINED  
SPEEDS EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, BUT BY MID MORNING CEILINGS AND  
POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES DROP AS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PASS  
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR A CATEGORY  
DIP TO MVFR (OR LOWER) WILL BE AT SPI, DEC, AND CMI, WHERE HREF  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-50% (10-20%) CHANCE FOR SUCH CEILINGS  
(VISIBILITIES) AFTER 15Z (9AM CST).  
 
BUMGARDNER  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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