997
FXUS63 KILX 202320
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
520 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020
A PERSISTENT BAND OF LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDS/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO
IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO
BLOOMINGTON/LINCOLN. MEANWHILE, A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON 21Z/3PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI IS
TRIGGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE W/SW KILX CWA...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A MACOMB TO SPRINGFIELD LINE. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z/6PM: HOWEVER, THE BAND OF LAKE-
ENHANCED FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN GALESBURG TO 18 DEGREES IN LAWRENCEVILLE. AS
A 1040MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE
NOTED ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER-
MAKER COMES INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE A SEPARATE
SHORT-WAVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TRACKS EASTWARD AS
WELL. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE PLAINS,
FORMING A DEEP/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW THAT WILL MEANDER ACROSS
ILLINOIS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP WARM-ADVECTION PRECIP EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP UNTIL PERHAPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
AND STRONGER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT STILL
SLATED FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING WHEN TEMPS DROP BACK TO NEAR FREEZING.
OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED...SO DESPITE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF POPS, EXPECTED LIQUID TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THAT MELTING DURING THE DAY AS TEMPS
WARM. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, A RETURN TO MILD/DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 40S
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020
SOME CLEARING TRYING TO TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL FADING OF THE CLOUD COVER VS. A
WELL-ESTABLISHED CLEARING LINE. CEILINGS ALTERNATING BETWEEN MVFR
AND A LOW LEVEL VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES, WHICH SHOULD BE
THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATE EVENING, ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOVING OUT.
QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BARNES
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
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