876
FXUS63 KLOT 310524
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1224 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM (WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER) ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED MUCH OF THE CWA AS OF 4PM, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EAST OF I-57
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST WHILE GUSTING TO 30 MPH
TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
AS A DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING MID-LEVEL
WAVE BRUSHES FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING BY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARD MIDWEEK WHEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PERIOD
OF INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
MORE CONSISTENTLY EARLIER WITH THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING (POTENTIALLY IN A WEAKENING PHASE) NEAR AND
WEST OF I-39. THIS COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER INTRODUCED A LEVEL 2 OF 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON DAY 3.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF STORMS EXITING IN
THE MORNING THERE IS A WINDOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR TO
TODAY'S (SUNDAY) SETUP, GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT, EXPECT UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS TO THE
FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BROADER REGION, THOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN ITS PLACEMENT REMAIN. FOR NOW NBM RAIN CHANCES
SEEM APPROPRIATE (HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-80) WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PETR/KLUBER
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE...
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST NEXT FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IL EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEAST FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. LIGHT
NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS
INTO THE LOWER/MID 20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS THROUGH SUNSET, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING
UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TOWARD 1KFT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK TOWARD 2KFT BY MID MORNING.
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
RAIN SHOWERS, WHICH MAY MIX WITH SOME SNOW. THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW MAY REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
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