191
FXUS63 KLOT 250750
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALBEIT
WITH A MODEST COOL-DOWN ON MONDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80, AND
PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
- THERE ARE PERIODIC LOW/UNCERTAIN RAIN CHANCES IN THE MID TO
LATE WORKWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL NOT UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY (HALLOWEEN) NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN NICE AND QUIET AS WE WELCOME THE NEW WEEK.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WI LAST
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL JET MAX DOWNSTREAM OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE PRECIP HAS STAYED SAFELY TO OUR NORTH
THUS FAR AND THAT WILL REMAIN TRUE AS IT NOW STARTS TO MOVE OVER
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND
SUNSHINE FILTERED BY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER.
THAT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL IA, UP ACROSS FAR SE MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI WON'T MAKE
A TON OF EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. BUT IT WILL PIVOT TO
BECOME MORE ZONALLY-ORIENTED ACROSS CENTRAL WI BEFORE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT, BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND FROM
NEIGHBORING SYNOPTIC FEATURES, AND A LACK OF LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT WILL, HOWEVER, HAVE A NOTICEABLE INFLUENCE
ON TEMPERATURES AS THE TIMING IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD
GRADIENT IN AFTERNOON TEMPS TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED BY EARLY MORNING, WHILE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE FRONT WON'T MAKE IT ACROSS UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH 70S
FORECAST AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
DROP INTO NORTHERN IL THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS THEN FAVORED TO
STALL NEARBY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NBM CAME IN WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW-END CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE
UNTIL SOME BETTER LAYER MOISTURE WORKS IN CLOSER TO THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHANCES ARE SEEMINGLY BETTER TOWARD THE WEEKEND NEAR
THE STALLED BAROCLINICITY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY WARMER- THAN-
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG ENSEMBLES IS FOR MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NOVEMBER.
DOOM
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, BUT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL EASE TO 5 KT
OR LESS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE TERMINAL AIRSPACE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN A NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE CURRENT SET OF 30 HOUR TAFS
FOR ORD AND MDW I DID INCLUDE THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AFTER
10Z MONDAY MORNING. I ALSO HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LOWER CLOUDS (SCT008) AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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