054
FXUS63 KLOT 011203
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHEST STORM CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
POCKETS OR CORRIDORS OF 2"+ RAINFALL TOTALS.
- HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR THE QUAD CITIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING
WITH RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE HIGHER. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES STILL REMAINS ON
TRACK, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY
FALL. WHILE THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL HOURS, IF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL OVER MORE URBAN AREAS, THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER. THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY END TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-55 UNTIL THEY FINALLY PUSH EAST INTO NORTHWEST IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME, BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
LATER TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE
AND WILL CREATE HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS, ITS POSSIBLE THE BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 80S. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. CMS
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS PERSIST TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
- A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
- PREVAILING LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED, WITH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
- GUSTY (UP AROUND 25 KT) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS,
PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS (WITH A FEW INFREQUENT EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES) ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA
TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-MILE VSBYS. WE HAVE HANDLED THIS IN THE TAFS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THEM LOOKS TO BECOME CONFINED FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CIGS TODAY, WITH LOW MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL. CURRENTLY WE ANTICIPATE GUSTINESS UP TO
AROUND 25 KT, THOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP CLOSER TO 30 KT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY, PARTICULARLY IF CIGS ARE ABLE TO
IMPROVE MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
KJB
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ILZ006-
ILZ103-ILZ104.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ001-
INZ002.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE IL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE IN
NEARSHORE WATERS.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page