950
FXUS63 KLOT 060543
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1243 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY WELL
SOUTH OF I-80.
- SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THURSDAY, BETTER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A SECONDARY IMPULSE, ATTENDANT INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL JET
DIVERGENCE, AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL F-GEN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY MUCAPE WILL BE RELEGATED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS, SO NO THUNDER MENTION APPEARS
NECESSARY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SHALLOW
FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DIFFUSE CONFLUENCE AXIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT CLEARING,
COMBINED WITH A LACK OF A DEEPER NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE
PRECLUDES ANY FOG ADDITION AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER. FINALLY,
TEMPERATURES MAY MEANDER INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. GIVEN MIXED-OUT DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON, HAVE NOT ADDED A FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE NAM) DEPICTS DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE NUDGED WINDS/GUSTS
UP A BIT WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PROGGED TO BE IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE, AND COMMENSURATELY NUDGED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DOWN CLOSER TO SOME OF THE MORE WELL-MIXED GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP).
GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW, IT SEEMS LIKE ANY LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
END UP TIED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE, WITH SOMEWHAT
DEEPER INLAND MOVEMENT ACROSS LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY END UP BEING SOMEWHAT
BRIEF/EPHEMERAL. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING OVERNIGHT,
LOOKS LIKE THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
RECOVERING OVERNIGHT. IF CLOUD COVER DOESN'T END UP IMPEDING OLR
TOO MUCH, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP NEAR/BELOW FREEZING ON A
LOCALIZED BASIS.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE EVENT DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. A SERIES
OF SHEARED-OUT MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PUSHING A SEASONABLY COOL 500 MB AIRMASS (MID -20S C) OVERHEAD.
COULD ENVISION SOME ISOLATED/SPOTTY HIGH-BASED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE COHERENT SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE FAST ON THE HEELS
OF FRIDAY'S WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE
LOOKING TO PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
CARLAW/IZZI
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED 10-15 KT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE
MORNING AMIDST VFR CLOUD COVER.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE GYY, WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE BREEZE FOR WINDS TO BE A BIT
LIGHTER AND POSSIBLY VARIABLE THERE IF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
ENDS UP POSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE GYY AIRFIELD. IF THE LAKE
BREEZE ENDS UP PROGRESSING FARTHER INLAND/WESTWARD THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY PREVAIL THERE
INSTEAD THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THINK THAT THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE SUCH AN OUTCOME.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
OGOREK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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