163
FXUS63 KLOT 101110
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND AND SOUTH
OF I-80.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ON MESOANALYSIS FROM NORTHEASTERN IOWA TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, REMNANTS OF A LAKE BREEZE HAS KEPT MOST OF
THE SURFACE WINDS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS A WEAK AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM MONTICELLO,
IA TO MICHIGAN CITY, IN WHERE SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO
FESTER THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHTNING HAS ONLY BEEN INTERMITTENT,
AND FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK, SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HELPING TO LIMIT
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH MID TO UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
BROADENING THE SCALE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS, A LOOK AT NATIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPANNING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL KANSAS PRESENTLY.
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON THE CHANCES THAT A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
700 MB WAVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. WHILE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY WANE IN THE MORNING, ITS ARRIVAL IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO CORRESPOND TO A DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY WITH A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
REDEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY MEAGER,
AND MODELS ARE TRENDING THE TRACK OF THE MCV MORE TO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. BETTER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP NEAR US-24. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) THIS
AFTERNOON OF A FEW STORMS ALONG A LAKE BREEZE AND LINGERING
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF I-80.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GROW TOMORROW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
AXIS FROM CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE TWIN CITIES ON SUNDAY. THAT
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD
DEVELOP DRIER CONDITIONS, AND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
TO AROUND 20C NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S MAY RETURN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS NOT JUST IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE, BUT ALSO HOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CANADA NEXT WEEK. WHILE WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, IT DOES NOT
APPEAR (AT LEAST AT THIS DISTANCE) TO COMPARE TO THE PREVIOUS
HEAT WAVE THAT OCCURRED AT THE START OF THE MONTH. NOT ONLY IS
THE TEMPERATURE SIGNATURE CURRENTLY NOTABLY MORE MUTED, BUT WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE PROJECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DAILY LAKE BREEZES TO SET UP
AND PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE RELIEF, ASSUMING THE SYNOPTIC WINDS
THEMSELVES ARE ALREADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED AROUND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATED GUIDANCE.
NEVERTHELESS, SUNNY AND DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DK
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND THEN RETURNING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE C90. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME, WITH NO PRECIP MENTIONS IN THE OUTGOING 12Z TAFS.
CARLAW
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page