400
FXUS63 KLSX 070432
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1032 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE AXIS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN (0.50"+) IS NOW CONFINED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, THIS
TIME ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GOES-19
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CONTINUED WESTERLY ADVECTION,
BUT ALSO EROSION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN FLANK WHEREAS FURTHER WEST THE STRATUS
HAS BEEN MORE STUBBORN. THE AREA THAT SHOULD CLEAR LAST IS OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, LIKELY AROUND 2100 UTC. THIS IS LATE IN THE
DAY, WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARMING/MIXING BEFORE THE SUN
SETS ~2 HOURS LATER. THIS RAISES THE STAKES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD (AND POSSIBLY DENSE) FOG MOST LIKELY IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. ADDED FOG HERE AND HAVE VISIBILITIES BELOW
1SM, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN OUR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI COUNTIES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM LIKELY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO MORE PURE
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE/NO ADVECTIVE FLOW, THE
DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS WILL COME DOWN TO HOW THICK THE STRATUS
IS, SOLAR HEATING, AND ANY EROSION. THESE ARE ALL DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST 18-24 HOURS OUT, BUT STRATUS COULD AT LEAST IMPACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THEREFORE, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE
FORECAST. THESE READINGS WOULD BE NEARLY 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE DATE.
GOSSELIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT)
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RAMP UP AFTER 0900 UTC THURSDAY, FIRST IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AS LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS
ABOUT 100-150 MILES FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. NOW THE FOCUS IS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LREF
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH FOR AT LEAST 0.50" OF RAIN, IN THE 60-80%
RANGE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP GRADUALLY. PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE LIKELY (60+%) CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH, BUT NOT MUCH MORE.
BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY, A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR THE QUAD CITIES, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST, COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. PROBABILITIES FOR 100+ J/KG OF SBCAPE
REMAIN VERY LOW (<20%), WITH DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING
THOSE LOW PROBABILITIES DUE TO VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANY
INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE ALSO LOOKS TO BE WELL-BELOW THE MIXED
PHASE PORTION OF THE CLOUD. THIS MEANS THAT LIGHTNING CHANCES ARE
LOW AT BEST. HOWEVER, AS THE 12/18 EVENT SHOWED, YOU CAN SEE SEMI-
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH EVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS/SHEAR IN PLAY. THE THURSDAY EVENING TIME FRAME REMAINS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, AS A STRONGLY FORCED, SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTION MAY FORM ON EITHER BOUNDARY. TIMING WISE, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MORE LIKELY TO WEAKEN THOUGH AFTER DARK. IF THIS OCCURS,
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUT THE DOOR ON CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION, BUT SOMETIMES THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ABLE TO STAY WELL-MIXED EVEN WELL PAST SUNSET. IF THE AREA SEES
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
THURSDAY FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
(FRIDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT)
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS THE CWA SHOULD SIT
BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH, WITH A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION
(RAIN>>SNOW) ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF A SECONDARY MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START
OFF AS RAIN, BUT MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF THE RAIN
WERE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, RATES SHOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED/GRASSY SURFACES. MARGINAL
(AKA ABOVE FREEZING) SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A WARM GROUND SHOULD
MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW IN OUR AREA.
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES ON HOW THIS SECONDARY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERACTS OR PHASES WITH A CLOSED LOW DIVING ACROSS THE US-
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS FAR ENOUGH
WEST/SOUTH, WE MAY SEE LINGERING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE CURRENTLY (10-30%). INTERESTINGLY, THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS
ON/OFF SHOWN A TRUE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. THERE ISN'T MUCH SUPPORT FOR THIS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT
THE MOMENT, WITH THE LREF ONLY SHOWING A 10-20% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TYPICALLY LOWER
RESOLUTION THAN THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS, SO THERE MAY BE
SOME MERIT TO WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING. AT THE VERY LEAST, THE
PATTERN WITH STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY OF ON/OFF SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
(SUNDAY - NEXT TUESDAY)
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO END THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE 7-DAY
PERIOD SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY AS MEAN 850-HPA TEMPERATURES SLIDING
CLOSER TO -10C. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, THOUGH
THESE VALUES ARE MORE LIKELY TO COME DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL STARTING
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S EACH DAY.
GOSSELIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KUIN QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
ALREADY THE FOG HAS BOUNCED BETWEEN MVFR, IFR AND ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FOG
IS ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING BEFORE ERODING
THROUGH DAYTIME MIXING. IF KUIN IS ON THE MORE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FOG BANK, EROSION OF THE FOG WILL BE EASIER AND MAY HAPPEN AN
HOUR OR SO BEFORE WHAT IS FORECAST IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. HOWEVER, IF FOG DEVELOPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND KUIN IS NOT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG, IT WILL TAKE LONGER
FOR SUNSHINE TO PENETRATE THE FOG AND INITIATE DAYTIME MIXING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN FOG LINGERING AT KUIN LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. BY MID DAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS.
ELSEWHERE, DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER LIGHT
WINDS FROM A PASSING SURFACE HIGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.
DELIA
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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