926
FXUS63 KLSX 010856
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
356 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THIS WEEKEND, USHERING IN DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY, AS OF 06Z, STRETCHES FROM ABOUT
VERSAILLES, MO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NOKOMIS, IL AND BEYOND. WITH
THE HELP OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET, SHOWERS AND WEAK, ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SO FAR THIS MORNING, THE MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AT MOST. MORE NOTABLE IS RAINFALL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS GOTTEN SO FAR. ACCORDING TO MRMS, A STRIPE
OF 1" TO 3" OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN CENTRAL MO AND IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IL ALONG THE FRONT, AND THERE IS MORE RAIN TO COME. DESPITE
THIS, FLASH FLOODING IS STILL NOT CONSIDERED A MAJOR THREAT DUE TO
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION, AND LACK OF
BACKBUILDING OR APPRECIABLE TRAINING. WITH THAT BEING THE CASE, IF
TRAINING DOES BECOME A PROBLEM, THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING.
THE COVERAGE OF TONIGHT'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ALONG THE FRONT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
LOBES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. EXACT COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW STRONG THE MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ACTUALLY BE. GENERALLY IT SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK, WHICH
PAIRED WITH CAPPED LOW-LEVELS AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE MAKES THE CHANCE
OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER LOW. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO BECOME STRONG,
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE FRONT AND SOUTH, WHICH IS STILL FORECAST
TO LAND NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR UNLESS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING COLD
POOLS PUSH THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH. THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO DRASTICALLY IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, CREATING A
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TO THE SOUTH.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PLAINS TODAY, SPURRING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN WESTERN KANSAS/EASTERN
COLORADO. ALONG THE SYSTEM'S DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENS OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS BRINGS US TO TONIGHT'S
VERY LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY HOLD UP IF NOT BE
INTENSIFIED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS FAR EAST AS OUR CWA. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW BY THE TIME THEY ARRIVE, AND LIMITED AT
MOST TO A SLIVER OF THE MID-LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE DRAGGING
OUR QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PLACE US WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING WARM AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
IN A PERFECT SCENARIO, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S WEAK COLD FRONT, AND A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT TO PROVIDE LIFT. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTORS
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THURSDAY ARE 1) THE QUESTION OF
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY BEHIND TONIGHT'S ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND 2)
TIMING. MANY OF THE CAMS ARE PESSIMISTIC, SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
ROBUST CONVECTION, AND EVEN THE FEW OPTIMISTIC ONES INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS SO LATE IN THE EVENING THAT THEY DIE QUICKLY. IF THEY
ARE WRONG, HOWEVER, AND WE GET EARLIER AND MORE ROBUST CI, 1000-2000
J/KG OF SBCAPE PAIRED WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ORIENTED
FAIRLY ORTHOGONALLY TO THE FRONT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SEMI-
DISCRETE CONVECTION TO START, WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTING
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
JAJA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THOUGH WE TRANSITION INTO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT OVER YET. THURSDAY'S WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
NOT PASS THROUGH THE CWA, BUT RATHER BUCKLE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT AS A SECOND SURFACE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAVE US WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH, IF ANY, PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WE
GET DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FORCING AND A CAP COULD PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, OR AT LEAST PRECLUDE ANY MEANINGFUL
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL SOUNDING WITHOUT A CAP, AND
EVEN IN THIS POSSIBLE WORST CASE SCENARIO LIFT IS VERY POOR WITHIN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND HODOGRAPHS OVER TIME ARE STRAIGHT, AGAIN
SUPPORTING SPLITS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR
HERE IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THE FRONT IS EARLIER
IN THE EVENING, MORE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AND OUR
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE. IF IT PASSES LATER,
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DIMINISH, AND OUR SEVERE THREAT
WILL DECREASE. IN THE EARLIER SCENARIO, INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD
POINTING BULK SHEAR VECTORS WOULD PROMOTE ABUNDANT CELL INTERACTION,
AND DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD ALSO INCLUDE A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA
THAN IF IT ARRIVES LATER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
STAY A WHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND QUICKLY AS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN IT SEEMS.
JAJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY
FROM KCOU TO K3LF. RADAR TRENDS HAVE BECOME MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS/TIMING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM KCOU THROUGH
KUIN. KJEF/KSUS/KSTL ALL SIT AT THE EDGE OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO
THE NORTH AND MERELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT KCPS IS THE LATEST
AFFECTED WITH THE VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD SAG IN THE FRONT, WHICH
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR IS FAVORED AT ALL SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
FORTUNATELY, TRENDS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH A BRIEF GUST IS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF DRY TIME
BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, PENDING LOCATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SPECIFICS WILL RELY
ON HOW ACTIVITY EVOLVES TONIGHT IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL,
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO VFR AS THE FRONT SHIFT NORTHWARD
LATE IN THE DAY.
MAPLES
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
RECORDS AT REGIONAL LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES - MARCH 31ST
RECORD HIGHS | RECORD WARM LOWS
ST. LOUIS: 87F (1981) | 63F (1917)
COLUMBIA: 86F (1940) | 59F (1967)
QUINCY: 81F (2010) | 58F (2010)
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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