659
FXUS63 KLSX 232338
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
638 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE TEMPERATURE WARMS ABOUT 10 DEGREES EACH DAY, PEAKING NEAR
RECORD LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
- THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A
RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY FOR A WHILE NOW, BUT YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAS GIVEN US
A BRIEF BREAK FROM ITS INFLUENCE. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXITING IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, HEADED TOWARD CHICAGO. THIS WILL ALLOW
OUR NNE WINDS TO SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PREVENT IDEAL
COOLING TONIGHT, BUT WE STILL DROP INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE. TUESDAY
BEGINS THE WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
KIMBLE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE WESTERN RIDGE GRADUALLY NUDGES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS IT
DOES SO, WE'LL CONTINUE OUR DAILY TEMPERATURE CLIMB AS THE RIDGE'S
INFLUENCE GETS STRONGER OVER OUR AREA. WEDNESDAY ALSO FEATURES A
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT THAT BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND SHOVES THE TEMPERATURE UP ANOTHER
15 DEGREES OR SO. THERE'S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THIS MOISTURE
RETURN TRIGGERS A STRAY SHOWER, BUT LATEST NBM FORECAST KEEPS POP
VERY LOW AND WE DO NOT DISAGREE.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO BEAT BACK THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY. WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THOUGH, THE WARM UP CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER 10 TO 15
DEGREES ADDED COMPARED TO WEDNEDAY'S HIGHS. THE ENTIRE SITUATION IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF THE CAP
DOESN'T HOLD. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES THIS TIME, THOUGH. FIRST,
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY, WITH IT JUST
ENTERING NORTHERN MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS MUCH MORE
OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE FULL HEATING BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT. SECOND, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS STRONGER THIS TIME,
WITH LREF MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 5DAM HIGHER REACHING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIRD, 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY A TOUCH LOWER, HOWEVER, SO IS THE MIXING
DEPTH. ON THIS PAST SUNDAY 850MB WAS ROUGHLY WHERE THE CAPPING
INVERSION WAS, SO THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FULLY
ACCESSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS THURSDAY INDICATE DEEPER MIXING
WITH A HIGHER CAP, SO THOSE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FULLY IN THE
MIXED LAYER AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER SURFACE WARMING. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT, INCLUDING
CHALLENGING ALL TIME MARCH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THAT'S SOMETHING
THIS RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEEN DOING WEST OF US FOR A WHILE NOW.
REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON THURSDAY, WE DO HAVE SIMILAR
CONCERNS THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY REGARDING CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE CAP IS A BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY AND
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ATTAINABLE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NBM DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE INCOMING FRONT OR DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE. EITHER WAY, IF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S PAN OUT, THEN GREATER INSTABILITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE AND THE CAP MORE EASILY OVERCOME. THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
NEGATIVE FACTORS REMAINING. FIRST, LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MORE WESTERLY, NOT OFFERING MUCH IF ANY
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT INTO THE BOUNDARY TO FORCE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SECOND, MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT, AS SEEN BY RAIN CHANCES THAT INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING (POST-FRONTAL). ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE LIMITED. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IN
RECENT DAYS HAD SHOWN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE INCOMING COLD
AIR, NEWER GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THIS AS A SIGNIFICANT
POSSIBILITY, WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF 00Z LREF MEMBERS PRODUCING
SNOWFLAKES AT ALL.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT IS ANOTHER COLD ONE. IN FACT,
EVEN A BIT COLDER THAN THE AIR MASS THAT ARRIVED BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
FRONT. THE COLD AIR UP IN CANADA REMAINS INTENSE, AND THIS FRONT
WILL BE TAPPING INTO SOME OF THAT. ALTHOUGH THE WORST OF THE COLD
DOES PUSH MORE OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING SETTING UP A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT NBM FORECAST PUTS MOST
OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH IF PROLONGED
CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED, THEN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES,
IN THE MID 20S ARE ACHIEVABLE IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL START ANOTHER
WARM UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE'S MORE UNCERTAINTY
THIS TIME ON HOW WARM WE GET AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG
RIDGING AGAIN WHILE OTHERS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT BRING MORE CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND POTENTIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE RISES TO 15+ DEGREES BY
TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY AT AROUND 10
PERCENT.
KIMBLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE.
MRB
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
RECORD HIGHS ON MARCH 26:
ST LOUIS 87 IN 1991
COLUMBIA 86 IN 1910
QUINCY 82 IN 1991
ALL TIME MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD:
ST LOUIS 92 ON MARCH 24, 1929
COLUMBIA 92 ON MARCH 21, 1907
QUINCY 88 ON MARCH 21, 1907
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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