741
FXUS63 KLSX 061008
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
408 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE (50%) FOR RAIN IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN MULTIPLE LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR
RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER UNIQUE WARM FRONT ORIENTED
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH ITS STRONG PARENT SURFACE LOW
WELL TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS WEAK
FRONT, ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S, DESPITE BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. WHEREAS LOCATIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW 40S WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, MORNING LOWS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL START THE DAY IN THE 20S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH THIS FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING CENTRAL IOWA. THIS FROPA WILL BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL AID IN INCREASED COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS (25-30KTS) ARE POSSIBLE
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS MORNING WITH AREAWIDE GUSTS OF
20-25KTS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER
THIS POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER NORTH/SOUTH BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY, COULD
LIMIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON "WARMER" SIDE OF SCENARIOS AND WOULD
OCCUR IF THE MAJORITY OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA, WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE "COLDER"
SCENARIO WOULD HAPPEN IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE ABUNDANT OR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OZARKS WHERE THE HREF IQR FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL HAS A 10
DEGREE SPREAD. A SURFACE HIGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND VEER TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION, RESULTING IN AREAWIDE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
PEINE/ELMORE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
AXIS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FOR
MOST THE DAY ON SATURDAY, DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 30S, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI, WHERE RETURN
FLOW WILL KICK IN EARLIER RESULTING IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. BY SUNDAY, THE BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS PLACED US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL COMMENCE. THE RESULT WILL BE A STEADY
WARMING TREND SUNDAY TO TUESDAY WITH EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS.
ON TUESDAY THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH THE LREF PROBABILITIES FOR QPF
>0.01" CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 50% FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE LOW TRACK AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THE MOISTURE RETURN, THUS RESULTING IN A LARGE VARIANCE OF POTENTIAL
QPF FOR THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CURRENT LREF PROBABILITIES FOR QPF >0.1" ARE ONLY AROUND 20%
INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME
WHILE THE REST OF MODEL GUIDANCE REINTRODUCES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ONE THING THAT GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON IS THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM STAYS ACTIVE WITH A PLETHORA OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL REGIME AND THE POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS RESULTING IN A SMATTERING OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK. SIMILARLY, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ALSO REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH LREF IQR'S FOR DAILY HIGHS AROUND
10-15 DEGREES, ONCE AGAIN HIGHLIGHTING THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE- SCALE PATTERN. REGARDLESS, THE CURRENT IQR'S FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THE NBM INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
PEINE/ELMORE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN CALM AND VARIABLE UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THERE IS AN AREAWIDE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET (>45KTS) THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY,
FIRST AT KUIN AND LATER AT THE ST. LOUIS METRO TERMINALS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KUIN. WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO RELAX AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND
INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY.
PEINE/ELMORE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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