294
FXUS63 KLSX 210451
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1051 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MODERATE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A STRONG HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WAS
SETTING UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING WINDS GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE . ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY. THERE STILL IS A LOW
CHANCE (15-25%) FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY TOMORROW EVENING A TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL, BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
THURSDAY THEY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
MORE DRY WEATHER. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
LREF IS SHOWING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICTING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH TROUGHS
WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY. AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY, THE LREF PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS IT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) WITH THE NBM AND THE
LREF HAVE GONE DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT OF THIS AND NOW START ON MONDAY
AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND ARE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CHILLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY
AND CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 5-10C RANGE. I HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE ST. LOUIS NBM IQR IS ONLY 3-6 DEGREES AS
OPPOSED TO 15 DEGREES ON MONDAY WHICH SHOWS THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE THERE IS STILL A WIDER SPREAD
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD IN THE IQR, IT IS NOT AS BIG AS MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO BE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST AT THE TERMINALS AMIDST GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. A DECK OF LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR STRATUS IS
DRIFTING SOUTH FROM IOWA AND IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KUIN
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR WILL NOT
IMPACT THE TERMINAL THE ENTIRE TIME. OTHERWISE, STRATUS WILL JUST
CLIP THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN TERMINALS AND STAY CLEAR OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST TODAY, SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING BY SUNSET THURSDAY.
MRB
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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