548  
FXUS63 KPAH 090713  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
213 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS  
WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN. COVERAGE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND,  
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.  
 
- HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEAR 100 DEGREES. AFTER SLIGHTLY  
COOLER HEAT INDICES (MID-UPPER 90S) ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A  
RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEGREE VALUES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
- UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT  
WEEK, BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR DAILY SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES TO CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
A 500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WHILE THE  
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED EAST OF OUR CWA  
TODAY, THE 700-850MB TROUGH AXIS HANGS UP FURTHER WEST WHICH MAY BE  
ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY  
ACROSS WESTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST IN, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED  
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. PWATS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH  
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT STILL WILL BE NEAR 2"  
ACROSS THE KY PENNYRILE. SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING  
ISSUES AGAIN.  
 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LOWER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FORCING LOOKS  
TO BE LIMITED EACH DAY (AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS  
NORTH AND WEST). SO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAR MORE  
ISOLATED. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE, HELPING TO BOOST  
HIGHS BACK AROUND 90 OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL  
REMAIN HIGH, WHICH ALLOWS HEAT INDEX READINGS TO NEAR 100 BY FRIDAY.  
 
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH TOWARDS OUR CWA  
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION, AND PWATS  
CREEP BACK TOWARDS 2" ALLOWING SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES TO  
OCCUR. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT/STALLS OUT  
ACROSS/NEARBY OUR CWA KEEPING HIGH PWATS IN PLACE. IMPULSES WITHIN  
THE 500MB FLOW MAY PRODUCE DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY  
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE  
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TRIES TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH. THUS  
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE  
HEAT POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKS MORE LIKE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AND RESULTING CLOUD  
COVER, WE MAY SEE A RETURN OF 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX READINGS BY  
TUESDAY.  
 
LONGER RANGE SIGNALS SEEM TO BE INDICATING A MORE PRONOUNCED  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK  
WHICH MAY ALLOW A TRUE COLD FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE FULL PASSAGE.  
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NICE BREAK FROM THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND MAY  
ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE 60S IN THE JULY 18-19 PERIOD.  
HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL 8-10 DAYS OUT SO NOTHING TO GET EXCITED ABOUT  
BY ANY MEANS. IT'S HARD TO GET A BREAK FROM THE 70+ DEWPOINTS IN  
JULY IN OUR AREA OF THE COUNTRY, AND MODELS MIGHT JUST BE TEASING US  
WITH FALSE HOPE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
STORMS MOVING THIS DIRECTION FROM STL MAY IMPACT THE KMVN-KCGI  
AND POTENTIALLY KPAH TERMINALS WITH EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS. AFTERWARD, CONDITIONS  
IMPROVE, BUT SOME OVERNIGHT-DAYBREAK FOG IS STILL A POTENTIALLOW  
CIGS/VSBYS CANDIDATE. OTHERWISE, A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL  
BE NOTED HEADING INTO/THRU THE DAY TMRW.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...SP  
AVIATION...DH  
 
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