512
FXUS63 KPAH 312007
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE COOLEST AIR AREAWIDE STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY. FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE EARLY SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY EARLY MONDAY. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- RAINCHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD SATURDAY (60-70%. MOST
OF THE REGION SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN, AND
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD SEE A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.
- SOUTH WINDS RETURN NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
TO NORMAL MONDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE QUAD STATE
BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN 850-700MB FGEN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HELPING TO FOCUS THE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AS FORCING INCREASES. VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY IS STILL SHOWING UP IN THE GUIDANCE WITH COLDER
AIR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT; HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THUNDER IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THE RAIN AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. MOST PLACES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO EDGE HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST
OF WESTERN KY SEEING AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE REST OF
THE AREA STAYING AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH.
THE RAINFALL EXITS OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH THE CLOUD COVER
SHIFTING EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SEMO INTO SOUTHERN
IL, WHILE THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE ENDED OVER WESTERN KY AND
SOUTHWEST IN. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE
FOR BOTH NIGHTS.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ZONAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MORE SEASONAL. THERE ARE
HINTS AT A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY, BUT THERE ARE
A LOT OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT WITH THAT. IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO AROUND 3000FT FOR THE WESTERN
TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS ISSUANCE, WHILE THE REST OF TAF
SITES WILL LOWER JUST BEYOND THIS ISSUANCE. RAIN WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER
18Z SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FREEZE WATCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-
084>086-088-089-092-093.
MO...FREEZE WATCH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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