448
FXUS63 KPAH 221948
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MONDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, THEN WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERWARDS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK, A RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. AS ZONAL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES MONDAY, CHRISTMAS EVE, AND CHRISTMAS DAY. AFTER
CHRISTMAS, EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER, THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS, TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS.
DESPITE THE MILD TEMPERATURES, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PLENTIFUL
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL INITIATE
SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL PASS NEAR THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
TWO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY, SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN A PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES BEFORE BECOMING A STEADY BUT LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF CHRISTMAS EVE AND THE FIRST HALF OF CHRISTMAS DAY. AFTER A
LULL CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT DEEPER
AND WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WARMTH AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
ELEMENTS.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS
LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD POSE A SEVERE RISK. AT THIS TIME, THE
ANALOG AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE DO SHOW SOME LOW END SEVERE
PROBABILITIES SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA,
SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO INTO FAR
WEST KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL, AND THE LATEST QPF SHOWS ABOUT
1.75-2.25" IN THIS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD. SOME MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS RISK IN THE HWO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. CLOUD BASES WILL
LOWER TO THE 07-10KFT LEVEL DURING THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE SOUTH AT 7-12 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN PICKING
UP AGAIN FROM THE S-SW AT 9-12 KTS AFTER 14Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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