625
FXUS63 KPAH 141136
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (80+% CHANCE) SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
MAIN THREAT.
- VERY STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
- RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ROUGHLY A
20-60% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, MAINLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED AREAS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS EARLY
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
EMERGES INTO NEBRASKA LATER TODAY, SHIFTING WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, LIFTING TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH IA AND NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWESTERN MI
WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENS. SURFACE WINDS RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
OF 35-45MPH BECOMING COMMONPLACE WITH ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS.
WIND GUSTS AT 850MB INCREASE TO 60-70KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
DELAYED TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION DURATION THOUGH THE LOW TO MID-50S DEW POINTS
IN THE NBM APPEAR TO BE AN UNDERESTIMATE OF THE BRIEF BUT
POWERFUL ADVECTION AT PLAY. THE NBM90TH PERCENTILE WAS BLENDED
IN SOME FOR WINDS AND MOISTURE (ONLY PRE-FRONTAL FOR MOISTURE)
AS DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AT LEAST
BRIEFLY. ADVISORY LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY.
MLCAPE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, THOUGH
CERTAINLY ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. SHEAR REMAINS
EXCELLENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-60KTS, RAMPING UP AS THE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE QUAD STATE REGION. HI-RES MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LACK LONG
TRACK HELICITY PATHS. THE LOW INSTABILITY AND EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR MAY CAUSE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD TO HAVE A SHORT
LIFESPAN, BUT SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOGENESIS SHOULDN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THAT ZONE. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH
THE QUAD STATE. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
EMPHASIZED WITH THE 30-45%+CIG1 WIND RISK AREA IN THE SPC D2
OUTLOOK. A 5%+CIG1 TOR RISK IS INCLUDED, WHILE HAIL POTENTIAL IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED. STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WITH SOME WINDS GUSTING TO 75+MPH
POSSIBLE. SEVERAL TORNADOES (WHETHER QLCS OR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS) ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER END POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO BE AROUND EF2 LEVEL AND LIMITED LONG-TRACK POTENTIAL.
IN SOME AREAS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN APPEARANCE
BETWEEN SOME OF THE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AND THE DAMAGE
FROM BRIEF TORNADOES.
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT,
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPERATURES LIKELY
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT DECENT RATES MAY LEAD TO AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWING RAIN MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME FLASH
FREEZE RELATED SLICK SPOTS. POST-FRONTAL GUSTS OF 30-40MPH OR
MORE SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN BREEZY MONDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILLS START OUT TUESDAY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE QUAD STATE BEFORE A RAPID
MIDWEEK WARMUP IS BROUGHT ON BY A RETURN TO BREEZY SOUTHERLIES.
SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY, WITH VERY LIMITED QPF POTENTIAL. DRY AND WARM
WEATHER ENDS THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER MOST OF THE
COUNTRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING INCREASES TO SE 10-12
KTS TODAY. HIGHER GUSTS OF 16-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT CGI/PAH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE TO 6-10 KTS TONIGHT WITH WIND SHEAR
AFTER 6Z. VFR PREVAILS WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
3-4KFT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...
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