278
FXUS63 KPAH 291140
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A NICE COOL DOWN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER AIR WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
THE PENNYRILE, OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHUNT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE, AND BRING A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME A
SOURCE OF IMPULSES WHICH THE MODELS FEEL ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY BRING CONVECTION SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE QUAD
STATE. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE FED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION, AND THE 00Z GEFS AND ECENS HAVE 70% OR GREATER
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE QUAD STATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE CURRENT NBM POPS ARE ONLY 15-30% IN THAT
PERIOD, AND ONLY MAX OUT AT 30-40% ON WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED TO START, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NBM MAY BE RIGHT TO LIMIT POPS THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
IFR AND LIFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF
KEVV AROUND 12Z AND KOWB AROUND 13Z. CEILINGS WILL CLIMB TO VFR
LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND
20KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER SKIES SCATTER
OUT. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT, SO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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