276
FXUS63 KPAH 282334
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
534 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD AIRMASS COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
AT TIMES.
- THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
(GREATER THAN 0.1") THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE CONTINUE TODAY, HELPING
TO MELT AND SUBLIMATE SOME OF THE SNOWPACK. BITTER COLD RETURNS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND A
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. WITH THIS FRONT IS ALSO THE PASSAGE OF A LITTLE SHORTWAVE
TROF AXIS ALOFT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL (GREATER THAN 0.1") THURSDAY NIGHT PER THE NBM.
HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING HARDLY ANY CLOUD ICE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SATURATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS COULD END UP
BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE SET UP, BUT COULD MORE LIKELY BE A
SEEDER-FEEDER SET UP WHERE WE GET SNOW INSTEAD. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
FRIDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
THAT WILL MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO RANGING FROM -5 TO -12. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER
QUICK DISTURBANCE ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH AND MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS BACK
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. MONDAY HAS MOSTLY A GREATER THAN 40% CHANCE TO
GET ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA. TUESDAY IS MOSTLY A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA (RIGHT NOW WE
HAVE 30-40% POPS IN THE FORECAST). GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A WINTRY MIX. THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT HOWEVER
AND MODELS SHOULD COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. OF COURSE, LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS THEY HAVE HINTED AT THE FZFG POTENTIAL AND IT HASN'T
REALLY PANNED OUT. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY FG
POTENTIAL, TIME HEIGHTS DO GIVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
LOWER CIGS MAY PAN OUT, JUST A MATTER OF WHEN AND HOW LOW.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS GIVEN THE SATURATED LAYER RIGHT
DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE. WHATEVER DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHERN TERMINALS
MORE THAN LIKELY WILL STAY VFR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...SP
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