931
FXUS63 KPAH 101123
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DAILY HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW 90S
THROUGH THURSDAY, AND MAY PUSH THE MID 90S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL MAKE IT "FEEL LIKE" 95 TO 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE READINGS MAY RISE ABOVE 100
AND CLOSE TO 105 IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY (30-50%), WITH LESSENING CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND (20-30%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY MID WEEK. MEANWHILE,
THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF TROUGHING SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD CLOSER TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 2" AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE
FROM THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 INTO THE MID 70S BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON A DAILY
BASIS STARTING ON TUESDAY. LIKELY WILL BE RATHER HIT OR MISS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP LOCALIZED HEAVY
AMOUNTS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BUILDS
NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LESSENING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
TICK UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES, POSSIBLY INTO THE MID 90S. HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN (DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S) SO HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY EXCEED 100 IN MANY AREAS AND POSSIBLY EVEN 105.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH KMVN THE ONLY
TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED. SCT CU WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
5-8 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE SITES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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