122  
FXUS63 KPAH 080800  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.  
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE A BRIEF DOWNBURST.  
 
- HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES  
AGAIN, BUT THE DURATION WILL BE SHORT WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY  
SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/IL/MO EARLY  
THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. LIKELY WILL EXPAND A BIT MORE  
THROUGH SUNRISE, SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY  
THROUGH 8 AM.  
 
A SERIES OF 500MB IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL  
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SIGNAL FOR LOWER POPS THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATER  
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY (ALSO UPPER HEIGHTS APPEAR TO RISE SOME ON  
FRIDAY AS A BRIEF BOUT OF UPPER RIDGING WORKS IN). CHANCES SPIKE  
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY.  
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,  
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY TODAY. WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY AREN'T  
IMPRESSIVE, AS A WE STRUGGLE TO GENERATE 20-25 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR,  
BUT COMBINED WITH HEALTHY PWAT VALUES OF 2" A FEW DOWNBURSTS MAY  
OCCUR. THESE HIGH PWATS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING  
ISSUES, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WHERE NARROW POCKETS OF 2-3" ARE  
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE STRENGTH MAY OCCUR ON  
SATURDAY, BUT EVERY DAY POSES AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW RISK OF  
STRONGER STORMS AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMERTIME.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY REMAINING IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD  
COVER AND CONVECTION AROUND EACH AFTERNOON. MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS  
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW US TO BOOST AROUND 90/LOW 90S AGAIN.  
THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE'S A CHANCE HIGHER  
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LEADS TO SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY  
FORECAST THEN. A RETURN OF 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST  
ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY, THANKS TO OUR RELENTLESS  
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S).  
 
MODELS VARY SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME SUGGESTING A  
CONTINUATION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD  
LEAD TO DAILY STORM CHANCES. OTHERS DEPICT UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AS  
RIDGING TRIES TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD GIVE WAY TO  
DECREASING STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. FOR  
NOW THE NBM'S TEMPS AROUND 90 ALONG WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SEEM  
REASONABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED FROM KCGI ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL  
LATE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND  
ACROSS MORE OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE  
200-500 FT RANGE BEFORE SCOURING OUT BY AROUND 14Z. LIGHT WINDS  
ARE ALSO PRESENT, SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG  
OVERNIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. HOWEVER, THE  
STRATUS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SPATIAL SCOPE AND OVERALL DENSITY  
OF THE FOG. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DIURNAL CU  
DEVELOPING LEADING TO HEAT OF DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ084>094.  
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ087-  
110>112-114.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ003>005-  
007-010-011-013>016-020-021.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...SP  
AVIATION...SP  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab MO Page
Main Text Page