280
FXUS63 KPAH 252351
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH SATURDAY, AND 30-40 MPH
SUNDAY.
- THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER THE QUAD
STATE THIS EVENING, AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL MAKE ITS RUN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
AND THE SECOND WILL RUN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY, AND THEN THE ACTIVE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP WELL WEST OF THE QUAD STATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER STOUT SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
PAST THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING.
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE ODDS ARE VERY LOW. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. NEITHER INSTABILITY OR WIND SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE, BUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY AND SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
MUCH, IF NOT, ALL OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, AS SOUTH WINDS GUST
30-45 MPH AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO CLIMB ABOVE 40 MPH, SO A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY, WHICH WILL PUSH A BAND OF CONVECTION SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE
INITIAL STORMS THAT REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING COULD BE SEVERE. ONCE AGAIN
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE GREATER
THAN ON FRIDAY. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A BIGGER CONCERN AS THE BAND OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WPC QPF AT THIS TIME MAXES OUT WITH
1-2" OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND TAPERS DOWN TO A HALF INCH IN
THE FAR EAST.
WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AS WE DRY OUT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL COME WITH A GOOD CHANCE
CONVECTION. THE NBM, AS PER NORMAL, HAS POPS SPREAD OUT THROUGH
THE WEEK, DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. LATEST
GUESS IS THAT TUESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN DROP BACK TOWARD NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (KCGI/KPAH) THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KEVV/KOWB/KMVN)
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDER IS MOST PROBABLE AT
KMVN, BUT EVEN THERE, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE BACK
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RJP
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