782
FXUS63 KPAH 171841
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
FROST CONTINUES TO BE A LATE GROWING SEASON HAZARD, AND ITS
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY, LIGHT WINDS, AND FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MEANS WE'LL KEEP THE
FROST HEADLINE AS IS. SOME CONCERN OF OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS
MUTING THE POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TEMP
FORECAST/NECESSITY OF COLLABORATED ADVISORY HEADLINE.
POTENTIAL IS THERE AGAIN TMRW NIGHT (FAR NORTH AND EAST), BUT
CLOUD INCREASE AND REINTRODUCTION OF PCPN CHANCES WILL FURTHER
INHIBIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. ANTICIPATE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT WITH
LESSER/PATCHY CHANCES, IF ANY, TMRW NIGHT.
THE TREND ALL WEEK ON THE WEEKS END PCPN CHANCE HAS BEEN FOR A
DRIER FRIDAY, ESP MORNING. EVEN THE WETTER GFS SUGGESTS BEST PCPN
HOLDS OFF TIL CLOSER TO/AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, BUT IT'S HARD TO NUDGE
TOO FAR OFF THE BLENDED NUMBERS. WILL TRY TO MASSAGE AND BLEND THE
PIC AS BEST AS POSSIBLE, NOTING THE THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY COULD
BE LARGELY DRY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. HOWEVER THAT WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE AS A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
10 DEGREES OR MORE. I WOULD PUT FROST IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING BUT
WIND AND SKY ARE NOT REALLY FAVORABLE, SO WILL HOLD FOR NOW ON
THAT.
SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BUT SLOWLY MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY, AIDING IN THE WARM UP. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND SOME CLOUDS. WE
ALSO MAY SEE A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT REALLY INDICATING THAT AT THIS TIME. THE CONSENSUS AT THIS
TIME INDICATES NEXT WEEK'S COLD FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE FIRST OF WHICH, AS MENTIONED, EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 7 KNOTS (AND SKY SLOWLY CLEARING) THAT
SHOULD INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT THEN. DO PLAN TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT IN FUTURE RUNS THOUGH. THEN LAST IS MONDAY, I DID INCLUDE
FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN
WITH CLEAR SKIES. IN BETWEEN IS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES
BUT MAYBE STILL A LITTLE WIND...DID RUN BLEND/BUILDER AND IT DID
AN IN BETWEEN PATCH IN OF FROST AND THAT SEEMS ACCEPTABLE AT THIS
TIME, ANOTHER THING WE'LL MONITOR IN FUTURE RUNS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
HIGH CLOUDS MAY PROVIDE SCT-BKN BASES AOA 10K OVERNIGHT, BUT
OVERALL SHOULD OFFER LITTLE FLIGHT RESTRICTION WITH CONTINUED VFR
FLIGHT WX EXPECTED THRU THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. DIMINISHING
WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPS INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT MEANS FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE TERMINALS AS WELL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>091.
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
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