294
FXUS63 KPAH 091149
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THROUGH 8PM.
- 20-50% CHANCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, WITH CHANCES PEAKING AT 60-90% LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
TODAY, MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- ON AND OFF 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 94 TO 101 DEGREE
RANGE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDICES
WILL REACH 102 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TODAY
(20-40% CHANCES), WITH CHANCES BY LATE TONIGHT INCREASING TO
60-90% NORTH TO 30-50% SOUTH. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PAH
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BECOME FOCUSED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA EXCEPT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENNYRILE REGION. THERE IS A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS
BOTH DAYS.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 20-40% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THINGS REMAIN
UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND 20%
CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TUESDAY PRODUCING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO AT LEAST
MID WEEK.
AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND, AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
INCLUDED PROB30 AT KMVN BY 16Z, AND 20Z AT KEVV/KOWB, AND
02Z-03Z AT KCGI/KPAH. MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WITH TSRA, AND GUSTY
WINDS NEAR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO 6-12KTS THIS MORNING, DECREASE TO AROUND
5KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT KMVN/KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 03Z-07Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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