820
FXUS63 KPAH 101130
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE LATE TONIGHT (TUESDAY NIGHT) INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE; ALTHOUGH,
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED LATE TONIGHT.
- THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING HIGHS OF 80 DEGREES OR GREATER HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR TODAY (10-15%). A BRIEF COOLDOWN INTO
THE 50S FOR HIGHS WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS (60S AND 70S) OVER
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL AN 80-90% CHANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS MO TONIGHT, REACHING NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK, WHICH WOULD LARGELY IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IL. RIGHT NOW, THE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM BEING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850MB THETAE GRADIENT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD RACE FAR ENOUGH AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER MO TO BRING AN EARLY MORNING WIND/HAIL THREAT TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IL. HI RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO
THOUGH, KEEPING THAT THREAT FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY OR AROUND 15Z (10AM) OVER SOUTHEAST MO
AND SOUTHERN IL AND AROUND 19Z (2PM) OVER WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1000
J/KG WITH WESTERLY SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40KTS. THE SHEAR VECTORS
ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS, WHILE HELICITY VALUES AROUND 300-400 M2/S2
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES (AROUND
65 DEGREES) WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND HAVE BEEN
CORRELATED WITH SEVERE WEATHER IN THE QUAD STATE. AGAIN, THE TIMING
FOR THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE QUAD STATE BY OR AROUND 5 PM. THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
HOW THE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MAY LINGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HELPING TO
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THAT
A GOOD PORTION OF THE QUAD STATE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS; HOWEVER, THE LINE ITSELF LOOKS TO BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH
TO LIMIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL.
AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE
50S) TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S) TO
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN FACT, THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL, WHILE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 KTS. AGAIN, IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON,
BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF FORECAST, BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING WAS LOW ENOUGH TO STICK WITH A PROB30 GROUP. THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE TIMING. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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