841
FXUS63 KPAH 250819
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
219 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS HIGH AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THERE IS AROUND A 60-80
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT 70 DEGREES OR GREATER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY!
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
REGION, WHILE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN (15-30 PERCENT
CHANCE) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND WEST KY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
- A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IN FACT, THERE IS
ONLY ABOUT A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVER SEMO AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL UP NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THOSE
LOCATIONS HAVE AROUND A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING VISIBILITIES
DROPPING BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. MOST OF THE QUAD STATE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUD COVER LINGER INTO SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PATCHY DRIZZLE (15-30 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST IN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARM/SOUTHERLY
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
LINGERS OVERHEAD. THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A 60-80
PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 70
DEGREES. FOR A COMPARISON, MANY OF THE RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE
SITES ARE IN THE LOW 70S. RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS COULD
ALSO BE BROKEN.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN (70-80 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. IT IS CURRENTLY LOOKING AS THOUGH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD HELP
TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IN FACT, PROBABILITIES OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 200 J/KG ARE ONLY
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. THAT IS LARGELY A RESULT OF POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO ANY CHANGE IN TIMING OR IF BETTER LAPSE
RATES MATERIALIZE, THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES COULD INCREASE.
LARGELY MONITORING FOR ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ABOUT A
50-70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE QUAD STATE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF
RAIN OR MORE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES (CLOSER TO 70 PERCENT) WILL BE ACROSS WEST KY INTO
SOUTHWEST IN.
A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT, THERE IS ONLY
ABOUT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY (AROUND 40 PERCENT). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE
FOG REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VSBYS IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE LOW CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE, ESPECIALLY AT KEVV/KOWB.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT KCGI/KPAH WHERE ONLY A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE
BACKING OFF ON VSBY REDUCTIONS. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN UP NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DW
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