737
FXUS63 KPAH 212149
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
348 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DANGEROUS COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 0 DEGREES.
- AFTER A BRIEF MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE 20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO TODAY.
- THERE IS AT LEAST A 10-30% CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROVING
ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN BRIEF REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG WITH SNOW WHIPPING AROUND ON ROADWAYS GIVEN
SATURATION IN THE DGZ JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS NOW BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE PAH CWA UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN AN EXTREMELY DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.05 INCHES BELOW THE 1TH
PERCENTILE, FELT CONFIDENT TO BUMP DOWN LOW TEMPS THAT RANGE
FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGS SOUTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO WIND CHILL VALUES NOW RANGING
FROM -10 TO 0 DEGREES. WITH A 1038 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVER THE FA TONIGHT, WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST RADIATIONAL COOLING, AS MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT RETURN UNTIL CLOSER TO THE SUNRISE.
A BRIEF MODERATION IN THE TEMPS OCCURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE NBM IS SILENT WITH THE POPS, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RETURNING SNOW FLURRIES WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORT PIVOTS THROUGH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI. THE 12Z ENS/GEFS ONLY SUPPORT A 0-10% CHANCE OF
SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW WHILE THE GEPS IS MORE OF AN
OUTLIER WITH A 30-60% CHANCE THAT WOULD ALSO EXTEND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
SPREAD FOR A SOUTHERN WAVE OF PCPN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GEFS IS MORE NORTH AND WOULD SUPPORT A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ON AVERAGE WHILE THE ENS/GEPS ARE MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND ONLY
SUPPORT A 10-30% CHANCE WHEN TAKING THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO. IF THE
NORTHERN SCENARIO WERE TO BE CORRECT, THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO SUPPORT A RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS NEAR 540 DM. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION MEANS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABATE, AND
THE FEW REMAINING LOW VFR BASES DISPERSE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST TONIGHT, AND RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES DEVELOP TMRW. SOME
MID-HIGH LEVEL BASES WILL BE INCREASING TMRW AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE AND BEGINS WITH ITS
APPROACH...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTINESS DURING MAINLY THE
PLANNING PHASE OF THIS PACKAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
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