030
FXUS63 KPAH 080716
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR WEST KY, FAR SOUTHERN IL, AND
SOUTHEAST MO.
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK IN LATE SUNDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WELL INTO THE 80S, ARE FORECAST THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
500MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FA
TODAY. THIS ENERGY WILL THEN GET SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING. THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS
SOME DENSE FOG TRYING TO SNEAK NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ADVISORY.
THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING
RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO CHURN EAST, MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ISN'T GREAT, BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH 25-30 KTS. MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THUS THE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS THE
SOUTH 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK. MAIN TIMING FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ANYTIME FROM NOON UNTIL ABOUT 7 PM.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHEST POTENTIAL MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH
SLIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FA. SEEMS TO BE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL, MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
LIKELY WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY, AND
COULD FLIRT WITH 90 IN A FEW PLACES.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL PRESENT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE MAY 15-18
TIME PERIOD AS MOISTURE INCREASES (DEWPOINTS LIKELY WELL INTO THE
60S, IF NOT ABOVE 70). INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE QUITE HIGH A FEW
OF THESE DAYS, SO JUST COMES DOWN TO IF WE CAN GET UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR STORMS. CIPS ANALOGS AND CSU-MLP BOTH
INDICATE SOME LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS DURING DAY-TIME HOURS, BUT WILL STILL OFFER OVERNIGHT
LOWERING OF CLOUDS/CIGS EVEN INTO RESTRICTED CATEGORIES. PCPN
CHANCES PICK UP TMRW WITH CONTINUED CIGS AND VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
CARRYING THE DAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DH
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