412
FXUS63 KPAH 302318
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER HEATWAVE IS SET TO KICK OFF ON MONDAY WITH AN 80-100%
CHANCE OF HEAT INDICES OF 100+ BY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR THE START OF THE PROLONGED
HEATWAVE. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING TODAY IS LEADING TO DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ON MONDAY BRINGS A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSER TO 70 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MONDAY ALSO KICKS OFF
ANOTHER HEATWAVE THAT LASTS ALL WEEK WITH LIMITED RELIEF BY THE
WEEKEND.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 100+ DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE A HEAT INDEX OF 105
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN RECORD WARM LOW
TERRITORY IN THE MID 70S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AREA WIDE FOR THE START OF THE PROLONGED HEATWAVE. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN MORE SITES
HITTING A HEAT INDEX OF 105 FOR FOUR DAYS IN A ROW. HOWEVER, A KEY
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HEATWAVE AND THE LAST ONE IS THE DRIER
AIRMASS THIS TIME AROUND. NBM MAX TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES HAVE
TRENDED UP THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, COMPARED TO
LAST TIME WHERE MAX TEMPS TRENDED DOWN AS WE APPROACHED THE EVENT
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE LREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDICES
OF 100+ DEGREES HAVE INCREASED TO 80-100% TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
SHIFTING BACK WEST OVER THE PLAINS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS ONLY LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THOUGH WITH NBM SHOWING AN ISOLATED 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
FRIDAY AND AN ISOLATED 15-20% CHANCE ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
LIGHT S-SW WINDS AROUND 3-5 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W-SW AFTER 15Z
MONDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RAMPS UP, SUSTAINED AT 8-12 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP, WITH
BASES AROUND 7-10KFT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ MONDAY TO 10 AM CDT
/11 AM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS
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