211
FXUS63 KPAH 310536
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1236 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK REMAINS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
DAYS FOLLOWING DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THIS MAJOR
SYSTEM MAKES ENTRY AND PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR REALLY PICKS UP BEST AFTER 21Z, WHICH IS WHEN MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY IS PEAKING JUST AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES
ENTRY. ALL THE CAMS HAVE SOME FORM OR FASHION OF A COUPLE LINE
SEGMENTS TAKING SHAPE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH LIKELY
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY LARGE/LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH TIME THE SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A
LINE/LEWP AS THE EVENING WEARS ON, WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
REMAINING A CONCERN. AND WHILE SOME MODELING (NAM FOR EX)
LINGERS IT AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOST MODELING SUGGESTS THE WORST OF
IT IS PAST BY THEN.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR A WORK WEEK STARTING RECOVERY, WE
FIRE BACK UP AGAIN BY MID WEEK. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR OUR NEXT POTENTIALLY
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK, WITH OUR ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
30% ENHANCED OUTLOOK. ALL MODES SEVERE WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.
THE OTHER COMPONENT THAT COMES INTO GREATER FOCUS ON THE BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK IS HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SIGNALING NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. PROJECTED STORM
TOTALS OF 4-8" ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. AN ESF TRANSITIONING TO A
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOON FORTHCOMING...AS THAT MESSAGE WILL
WITHOUT DOUBT BE AMPLIFIED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL END VERY
QUICKLY, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WILL PASS THROUGH EACH SITE; HOWEVER,
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MVFR CEILINGS
SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON MONDAY. SOME DOWNSLOPING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SEMO, MAY KEEP CEILINGS A BIT HIGHER
OVERNIGHT AT CGI/PAH. OTHERWISE, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING AROUND 15 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
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