631  
FXUS63 KPAH 082228  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
528 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS  
TODAY MAY CAUSE A BRIEF DOWNBURST.  
 
- HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEAR 100 DEGREES, BUT THE  
DURATION WILL BE SHORT WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
A COMPLEX OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND  
A WARM FRONT BETWEEN 925-850 MB WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS NOW APPROACHING  
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN  
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT. THE CAMS INDICATE AN ADDITIONAL BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST,  
BUT THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT  
MORE DIFFICULT TO DESTABILIZE. THE RAP13 INDICATES A SHARP  
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000  
J/KG. COMBINED WITH A MAX THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF 25K AND SFC-3KM  
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM, THE MAIN CONCERN SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF DOWNBURST ALONG WITH  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES  
AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT, RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE LOCALLY UP  
TO 1-2 INCHES THAT CAN LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES IN LOW-  
LYING LOCATIONS.  
 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN NOW BEGINS TO DECREASE ON  
WEDNESDAY, FAVORING LESS COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DO  
DEVELOP WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND LIGHTNING, BUT OVERALL NO PARTICULAR DAY LOOKS TO BE A  
COMPLETE WASH OUT. PCPN CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE  
WEEKEND AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT TRANSVERSES  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES EARLY NEXT WEEK  
BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING AND A RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER THE SE  
CONUS THAT WOULD FAVOR LOWER STORM CHANCES.  
 
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90  
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
STORMS MOVING THIS DIRECTION FROM STL MAY IMPACT THE KMVN-KCGI  
AND POTENTIALLY KPAH TERMINALS WITH EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS. AFTERWARD, CONDITIONS  
IMPROVE, BUT SOME OVERNIGHT-DAYBREAK FOG IS STILL A POTENTIALLOW  
CIGS/VSBYS CANDIDATE. OTHERWISE, A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL  
BE NOTED HEADING INTO/THRU THE DAY TMRW.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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