429
FXUS63 KPAH 101817
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
AN OMEGA-BLOCK'ISH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD
AND LOOKS TO STICK AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. AN AMORPHOUS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WAX
AND WANE A BIT WITH THE PREDOMINANT EFFECT OF KEEPING SURFACE
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY AT BAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLIES TODAY BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY - BUT STILL LIGHT - THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE ONLY SKY
FACTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT THE CENTER OF THE OMEGA-BLOCK
PATTERN MOVES MORE OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE
BIT OF PACIFIC DRAWN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DOT THE SKIES WITH A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP SLIGHTLY. PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRY
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH DAY 7. THIS MORNINGS 12Z GFS DETERMINISTIC
HAS A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS BREAKING THROUGH AND GIVING US A
CHANCE AT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN AND PRECIP BY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT PREVAILING WESTERLY
WIND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT GROUND FOG
IS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR RESIDUAL WARM BODIES OF WATER (CGI) WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE WITH TRANSIENT HIGH
BROKEN/OVERCAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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