954
FXUS63 KPAH 180431
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1031 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A 40-70% CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS A LEVEL
2/5, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A 35-45%
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY THAT MAY MIX WITH OR END AS A
LIGHT WET SNOW SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A 160 KT PACIFIC JET
WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR AN
INFLUX OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR. 850 MB WAA ADVECTION
RAMPS UP TONIGHT, AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ONLY 15-25% WITH MOST
OF THE FA LIKELY ONLY EXPERIENCING MORE OF A MIST FROM THE LOW
STATUS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
BY 12Z THURSDAY, AN ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT. INSIDE THE WARM SECTOR, DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, TRANSLATING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COMBINED WITH
ROBUST SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 70-80 KTS, THE PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FROM THE WABASH VALLEY INTO
THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MODE, BUT THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO LINEAR LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL POSE THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS WITH SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-25 KTS. GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND A LOW
WBZ AROUND 750-725 MB, SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. THE
ECMWF EFI FOR CAPE-SHEAR RANGES FROM 0.7 TO 0.9 WHICH TYPICALLY
TRANSLATES TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN ANOMALOUS EVENT THAT
IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFORMENTIONED UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL, SOME SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BUT SPATIAL COVERAGE
FOR THE PAH CWA MAY BE CONFINED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
WHERE SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK IN THEIR D3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES RETURNING BY SUNDAY AS A 500 MB
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET 20 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES AROUND -10C BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S. IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY, THERE
IS A 35-45% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THAT MAY END AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE. HOWEVER, MEAN NBM PROBABILITIES OF SNOW
ARE ONLY AROUND 20%. EVEN IF SNOW DOES OCCUR, IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATION ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO POOR SLRS SATURDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW THE STRATUS DECK WILL START TO ERODE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25
KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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