073  
FGUS73 KIND 132024  
ESFIND  
ILC023-033-047-059-101-185-193-INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-  
035-045-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-  
107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-152100-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
321 PM EST THU FEB 13 2020  
 
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND MUCH OF  
SOUTHERN INDIANA...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE EARLY SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK COVERING THE MONTHS OF  
MARCH, APRIL, AND MAY FOR THE WHITE AND WABASH RIVER BASINS IN  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA IS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ABOVE NORMAL  
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK MEANS THAT ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL COMBINED  
WITH ABNORMALLY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE  
FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS SPRING.  
 
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS  
WINTER INTO THE SPRING WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
LOWER WHITE AND WABASH BASINS. THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS  
APPROXIMATELY TWO TIMES THE NORMAL RISK.  
 
AS OF FEBRUARY 13TH, STREAM LEVELS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA  
WERE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINOR FLOODING  
ONGOING ALONG THE WABASH, WHITE, AND EAST FORK WHITE BASINS.  
 
SO FAR THIS WINTER, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT AS  
HIGH AS LAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW  
NORMAL SNOWFALL. SOIL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE  
YEAR AND IS HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL  
INDIANA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW AVERAGE  
PRECIPITATION. THE 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK AND THE 1 TO 3 MONTH OUTLOOK  
SHOW ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.  
 
ANYONE WITH INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO  
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. FLOOD CONDITIONS CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY  
DURING THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.  
 
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS CHANGING WEATHER AND RIVER  
CONDITIONS WARRANT.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SHELBYVILLE 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 39 28 21 11 <5 <5  
:DRIFTWOOD RIVER  
EDINBURGH 2 SW 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 74 67 29 19 <5 <5  
:EAGLE CREEK  
ZIONSVILLE 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 22 23 12 9 <5 <5  
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER  
COLUMBUS 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 46 34 <5 <5 <5 <5  
RIVERVALE 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 91 79 13 12 <5 <5  
BEDFORD 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 71 61 16 17 <5 <5  
SEYMOUR 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 95 >95 35 26 <5 <5  
SHOALS 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 43 38 20 17 <5 6  
WILLIAMS 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 75 66 18 18 <5 <5  
:EEL RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 65 63 21 27 <5 <5  
:FLATROCK RIVER  
COLUMBUS 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 60 44 7 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
VERNON 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 17 20 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SUGAR CREEK  
CRAWFORDSVILLE 8.0 10.0 14.0 : 19 21 10 13 6 5  
:TIPPECANOE RIVER  
DELPHI 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 45 45 <5 7 <5 <5  
:WABASH RIVER  
COVINGTON 16.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 93 21 20 <5 <5  
TERRE HAUTE 14.0 22.0 28.0 : >95 95 27 23 <5 <5  
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 16.0 24.0 28.0 : >95 >95 16 19 <5 <5  
LAFAYETTE 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 95 93 33 31 <5 <5  
MOUNT CARMEL 19.0 25.0 32.0 : >95 87 51 43 <5 <5  
MONTEZUMA 14.0 24.0 31.0 : >95 >95 30 24 <5 <5  
RIVERTON 15.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 >95 28 26 <5 6  
TERRE HAUTE 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 80 91 75 52 <5 <5  
VINCENNES 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 90 82 24 25 <5 <5  
:WHITE RIVER  
ANDERSON 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 42 25 8 <5 <5 <5  
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 58 56 7 7 <5 <5  
CENTERTON 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 55 54 7 8 <5 <5  
ELLISTON 18.0 25.0 29.0 : >95 93 27 22 <5 <5  
EDWARDSPORT 15.0 22.0 25.0 : >95 95 28 21 <5 <5  
HAZLETON 16.0 24.0 28.0 : >95 94 35 30 <5 7  
INDIANAPOLIS 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MUNCIE 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 14 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NOBLESVILLE 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 39 40 6 7 <5 <5  
NORA 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 40 42 9 10 <5 <5  
NEWBERRY 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 87 83 30 34 <5 <5  
PETERSBURG 16.0 23.5 26.0 : >95 93 36 27 8 6  
RAVENSWOOD 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 50 49 10 10 <5 <5  
SPENCER 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 91 86 22 19 <5 <5  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
LAFAYETTE 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 72 62 16 18 <5 8  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SHELBYVILLE 8.2 9.2 10.4 12.1 14.2 17.2 18.0  
:DRIFTWOOD RIVER  
EDINBURGH 2 SW 7.8 9.7 10.9 12.7 14.3 14.8 15.1  
:EAGLE CREEK  
ZIONSVILLE 3.7 4.0 4.5 5.3 8.4 11.4 12.5  
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER  
COLUMBUS 2.8 4.7 6.1 8.6 11.0 12.8 13.5  
RIVERVALE 19.3 20.1 21.5 24.4 27.8 30.5 31.4  
BEDFORD 18.0 18.4 19.5 22.3 25.3 28.2 28.9  
SEYMOUR 11.9 14.2 15.4 16.1 17.7 18.1 18.4  
SHOALS 12.1 12.7 14.6 18.3 24.2 26.5 27.9  
WILLIAMS 7.0 7.4 8.0 9.8 13.0 15.2 15.5  
:EEL RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 11.7 12.6 14.1 16.4 19.6 21.2 21.3  
:FLATROCK RIVER  
COLUMBUS 7.6 8.9 9.8 11.7 13.4 14.8 15.1  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
VERNON 5.9 6.4 9.3 11.4 15.4 18.6 20.0  
:SUGAR CREEK  
CRAWFORDSVILLE 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.5 6.9 9.8 14.7  
:TIPPECANOE RIVER  
DELPHI 4.6 5.7 6.3 7.7 9.2 10.3 11.5  
:WABASH RIVER  
COVINGTON 16.3 17.6 19.4 21.2 23.7 24.8 25.9  
TERRE HAUTE 14.9 17.1 18.4 20.0 22.1 23.3 24.6  
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 18.3 19.1 20.3 21.8 23.1 24.5 25.8  
LAFAYETTE 10.9 12.7 14.3 16.3 18.8 20.4 21.9  
MOUNT CARMEL 20.2 20.8 22.6 25.2 27.7 29.2 30.1  
MONTEZUMA 15.8 18.8 20.5 21.9 24.5 25.4 28.5  
RIVERTON 17.1 17.8 19.1 20.7 22.2 23.9 25.3  
TERRE HAUTE 17.1 19.4 20.7 22.4 24.5 25.7 27.0  
VINCENNES 14.4 16.0 17.7 19.7 21.8 24.2 25.8  
:WHITE RIVER  
ANDERSON 7.0 8.0 8.7 9.5 11.0 14.5 15.8  
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 600.0 600.5 602.1 603.4 605.3 606.6 607.2  
CENTERTON 7.9 8.5 10.7 12.4 14.6 15.8 16.2  
ELLISTON 18.4 19.5 21.6 23.4 25.2 26.6 26.9  
EDWARDSPORT 16.3 17.2 18.7 20.3 22.2 23.9 24.1  
HAZLETON 20.5 20.7 21.3 22.8 24.9 26.4 27.9  
INDIANAPOLIS 7.8 8.7 9.4 10.8 12.5 15.1 15.5  
MUNCIE 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.3 8.2 9.3 11.0  
NOBLESVILLE 8.9 9.8 10.9 12.5 16.0 17.7 19.5  
NORA 6.9 7.7 8.6 9.9 12.5 15.7 16.9  
NEWBERRY 11.4 12.5 15.0 17.0 19.5 22.0 22.2  
PETERSBURG 19.8 19.9 20.7 22.3 24.5 25.6 26.7  
RAVENSWOOD 3.4 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.7 10.0 10.9  
SPENCER 13.1 14.1 16.3 17.8 19.6 21.6 22.2  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
LAFAYETTE 7.8 8.4 9.8 11.6 12.8 16.6 19.1  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SHELBYVILLE 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1  
:DRIFTWOOD RIVER  
EDINBURGH 2 SW 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6  
:EAGLE CREEK  
ZIONSVILLE 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4  
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER  
COLUMBUS 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9  
RIVERVALE 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.9  
BEDFORD 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.8  
SEYMOUR 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0  
SHOALS 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6  
WILLIAMS 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.5  
:EEL RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.6  
:FLATROCK RIVER  
COLUMBUS 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
VERNON 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6  
:SUGAR CREEK  
CRAWFORDSVILLE 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:TIPPECANOE RIVER  
DELPHI 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5  
:WABASH RIVER  
COVINGTON 10.9 10.0 7.4 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.4  
TERRE HAUTE 7.8 6.7 4.3 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.2  
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 11.2 10.1 7.8 6.8 6.2 5.7 5.5  
LAFAYETTE 6.9 6.0 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.3  
MOUNT CARMEL 9.1 8.5 7.4 6.0 4.9 4.6 4.1  
MONTEZUMA 9.2 8.2 6.2 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5  
RIVERTON 9.9 8.9 6.5 5.5 4.8 4.3 4.1  
TERRE HAUTE 10.2 9.2 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.7  
VINCENNES 8.2 7.6 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.7  
:WHITE RIVER  
ANDERSON 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3  
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 595.3 595.2 594.9 594.7 594.6 594.5 594.5  
CENTERTON 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1  
ELLISTON 10.4 9.7 8.7 7.5 6.8 6.4 6.2  
EDWARDSPORT 8.6 8.3 7.0 5.6 4.9 4.6 4.4  
HAZLETON 8.4 8.2 7.1 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.5  
INDIANAPOLIS 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6  
MUNCIE 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3  
NOBLESVILLE 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0  
NORA 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3  
NEWBERRY 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.3  
PETERSBURG 8.4 8.1 7.1 6.1 5.1 4.6 4.1  
RAVENSWOOD 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2  
SPENCER 4.5 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.7  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
LAFAYETTE 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FORECASTS AND CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE  
DATA AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS. CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE  
AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV/NSA. CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE  
AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATCHWATCH. VISIT OUT HOME PAGE AT  
WEATHER.GOV/IND FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FEBRUARY 27TH.  
 

 
 
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