958
FGUS73 KLMK 121659
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2020
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA, CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND THE
OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON, INDIANA TO TELL CITY, INDIANA.
THE FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THROUGH MAY 2020.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 21 11 12 8 <5 <5
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 30 25 13 13 <5 <5
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 34 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 35 36 22 22 13 16
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 36 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
ROCHESTER 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 80 59 12 8 <5 <5
WOODBURY 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 85 80 16 31 8 20
:KENTUCKY
CAMP NELSON LOCK 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 22 22 10 16 7 12
:KENTUCKY RIVER
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 13 9 5 <5 <5 <5
FORD LOCK 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 19 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 16 13 8 <5 5 <5
LOCKPORT LOCK 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 24 24 12 7 <5 <5
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 42 31 6 <5 <5 <5
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 22 18 9 <5 <5 <5
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 35 27 <5 6 <5 <5
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 20 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 25 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
TELL CITY 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 67 52 9 8 <5 <5
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 43 40 10 14 6 7
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 52 33 26 16 <5 5
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 21 20 17 15 15 13
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 14.4 15.6 18.6 22.9 26.0 33.2 35.7
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 7.3 8.4 10.0 14.4 21.5 24.6 25.5
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 9.8 11.5 14.8 19.6 26.6 30.8 33.1
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 5.7 6.0 7.2 8.1 11.3 14.6 16.3
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 13.3 14.7 17.9 22.7 32.0 39.4 47.6
ROCHESTER 15.0 15.9 17.5 19.8 23.4 25.3 26.4
WOODBURY 22.1 25.0 27.9 31.3 35.1 40.0 42.3
:KENTUCKY
CAMP NELSON LOCK 20.2 21.6 24.2 26.5 28.9 35.4 43.1
:KENTUCKY RIVER
FRANKFORT LOCK 12.5 13.1 16.0 20.0 24.3 32.5 35.3
FORD LOCK 16.4 17.3 19.0 21.2 24.1 29.0 33.1
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 16.9 18.1 20.1 22.2 25.2 32.8 39.3
LOCKPORT LOCK 16.7 17.3 22.2 27.9 31.9 44.6 45.9
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 16.2 16.9 20.0 22.9 29.4 37.2 42.8
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 10.5 12.8 16.9 21.6 24.2 27.9 28.6
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 432.1 435.0 440.6 443.8 447.3 450.2 451.4
CANNELTON LOCK 29.4 31.6 38.1 40.8 42.8 44.4 45.7
MCALPINE LOWER 35.3 39.4 46.9 50.5 53.8 57.5 59.7
MCALPINE UPPER 13.8 15.9 18.0 20.3 23.0 26.4 28.6
TELL CITY 28.2 30.5 36.9 40.2 42.3 43.8 44.8
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 18.1 20.6 24.9 33.4 39.1 42.0 45.6
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 17.8 19.4 21.8 25.2 28.1 29.0 29.7
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 6.1 6.5 8.0 14.2 26.5 30.2 31.5
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 8.6 9.3 10.0 13.7 18.3 25.3 27.0
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 10.6 10.0 9.5 8.5 6.4 4.5 4.3
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2
ROCHESTER 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.6 8.7 7.7 7.3
WOODBURY 9.0 8.5 7.1 6.3 4.3 3.1 2.8
:KENTUCKY
CAMP NELSON LOCK 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.5
:KENTUCKY RIVER
FRANKFORT LOCK 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.7
FORD LOCK 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.6
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7
LOCKPORT LOCK 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.4 9.3
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 422.3 422.1 421.8 421.4 421.2 421.1 421.0
CANNELTON LOCK 14.4 14.0 13.0 12.2 11.7 11.5 11.4
MCALPINE LOWER 16.3 15.4 13.9 12.7 12.0 11.7 11.5
MCALPINE UPPER 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
TELL CITY 15.3 15.0 14.3 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.7
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.9
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 9.4 8.9 8.1 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO
THE CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE, BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR
INCONVENIENCE.
ICE JAMS AND SNOW MELT ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR FOR FLOODING IN THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF EARLY MARCH, SOIL
MOISTURE WAS ABOVE NORMAL AND STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE WETTEST CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES IN STORE.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH GO OUT THROUGH MARCH
25 BOTH CALL FOR HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND A QUARTER TO ONE INCH.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH
ARE IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE
INCH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE AT
WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV.
CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA.
CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH.
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.LRL-
WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2020.
AMS
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