958  
FGUS73 KLMK 121659  
ESFLMK  
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-  
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-  
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-  
213-215-217-223-229-239-DDHHMM-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
100 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2020  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA, CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND THE  
OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON, INDIANA TO TELL CITY, INDIANA.  
 
THE FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO RAINFALL AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THROUGH MAY 2020.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 21 11 12 8 <5 <5  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 30 25 13 13 <5 <5  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 34 31 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 35 36 22 22 13 16  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 36 22 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ROCHESTER 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 80 59 12 8 <5 <5  
WOODBURY 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 85 80 16 31 8 20  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 22 22 10 16 7 12  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 13 9 5 <5 <5 <5  
FORD LOCK 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 19 17 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 16 13 8 <5 5 <5  
LOCKPORT LOCK 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 24 24 12 7 <5 <5  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 42 31 6 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 22 18 9 <5 <5 <5  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 35 27 <5 6 <5 <5  
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 20 17 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 25 22 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TELL CITY 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 67 52 9 8 <5 <5  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 43 40 10 14 6 7  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 52 33 26 16 <5 5  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 21 20 17 15 15 13  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 14.4 15.6 18.6 22.9 26.0 33.2 35.7  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 7.3 8.4 10.0 14.4 21.5 24.6 25.5  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 9.8 11.5 14.8 19.6 26.6 30.8 33.1  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 5.7 6.0 7.2 8.1 11.3 14.6 16.3  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 13.3 14.7 17.9 22.7 32.0 39.4 47.6  
ROCHESTER 15.0 15.9 17.5 19.8 23.4 25.3 26.4  
WOODBURY 22.1 25.0 27.9 31.3 35.1 40.0 42.3  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 20.2 21.6 24.2 26.5 28.9 35.4 43.1  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 12.5 13.1 16.0 20.0 24.3 32.5 35.3  
FORD LOCK 16.4 17.3 19.0 21.2 24.1 29.0 33.1  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 16.9 18.1 20.1 22.2 25.2 32.8 39.3  
LOCKPORT LOCK 16.7 17.3 22.2 27.9 31.9 44.6 45.9  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 16.2 16.9 20.0 22.9 29.4 37.2 42.8  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 10.5 12.8 16.9 21.6 24.2 27.9 28.6  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 432.1 435.0 440.6 443.8 447.3 450.2 451.4  
CANNELTON LOCK 29.4 31.6 38.1 40.8 42.8 44.4 45.7  
MCALPINE LOWER 35.3 39.4 46.9 50.5 53.8 57.5 59.7  
MCALPINE UPPER 13.8 15.9 18.0 20.3 23.0 26.4 28.6  
TELL CITY 28.2 30.5 36.9 40.2 42.3 43.8 44.8  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 18.1 20.6 24.9 33.4 39.1 42.0 45.6  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 17.8 19.4 21.8 25.2 28.1 29.0 29.7  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 6.1 6.5 8.0 14.2 26.5 30.2 31.5  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 8.6 9.3 10.0 13.7 18.3 25.3 27.0  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/17/2020 - 06/15/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 10.6 10.0 9.5 8.5 6.4 4.5 4.3  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2  
ROCHESTER 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.6 8.7 7.7 7.3  
WOODBURY 9.0 8.5 7.1 6.3 4.3 3.1 2.8  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.5  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.7  
FORD LOCK 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.6  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7  
LOCKPORT LOCK 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.4 9.3  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 422.3 422.1 421.8 421.4 421.2 421.1 421.0  
CANNELTON LOCK 14.4 14.0 13.0 12.2 11.7 11.5 11.4  
MCALPINE LOWER 16.3 15.4 13.9 12.7 12.0 11.7 11.5  
MCALPINE UPPER 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5  
TELL CITY 15.3 15.0 14.3 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.7  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.9  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 9.4 8.9 8.1 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO  
THE CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS  
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS  
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE, BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR  
INCONVENIENCE.  
 
ICE JAMS AND SNOW MELT ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR FOR FLOODING IN THIS  
PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
 
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF EARLY MARCH, SOIL  
MOISTURE WAS ABOVE NORMAL AND STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL  
WITH THE WETTEST CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  
RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF  
RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO  
RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER  
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER  
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN  
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES IN STORE.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH GO OUT THROUGH MARCH  
25 BOTH CALL FOR HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS  
AROUND A QUARTER TO ONE INCH.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH  
ARE IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE  
INCH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE AT  
WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV.  
 
CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA.  
 
CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH.  
 
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.LRL-  
WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THIS IS THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2020.  
 

 
 
AMS  
 
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