985  
FGUS73 KLMK 131848  
ESFLMK  
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-  
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-  
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-  
213-215-217-223-229-239-DDHHMM-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
145 PM EST THU FEB 13 2020  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA, CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND THE  
OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON, INDIANA TO TELL CITY, INDIANA.  
 
THE FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO RAINFALL AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THROUGH APRIL 2020.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 21 23 10 14 <5 <5  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 29 30 14 14 <5 <5  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 39 42 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 37 48 24 35 16 23  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 29 34 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ROCHESTER 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 82 71 11 14 <5 <5  
WOODBURY 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 90 >95 19 45 5 31  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 23 35 8 22 <5 17  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 12 14 <5 7 <5 <5  
FORD LOCK 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 15 17 <5 6 <5 <5  
LOCKPORT LOCK 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 41 40 6 13 <5 6  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 34 40 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 31 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 46.0 50.0 : >95 38 26 9 <5 <5  
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 61 29 5 <5 <5 <5  
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 73 35 21 8 <5 <5  
TELL CITY 38.0 44.0 50.0 : >95 63 38 13 <5 <5  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 54 52 19 22 8 13  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 49 43 28 26 <5 10  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 13 <5 9 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 26 30 19 22 15 18  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 15.2 15.8 18.1 21.8 26.4 32.2 33.6  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 7.6 8.3 10.3 13.5 21.1 25.0 25.5  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 11.9 13.2 15.7 21.0 27.7 29.9 32.4  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.2 11.8 15.3 16.6  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 11.7 12.9 16.0 19.9 29.5 38.5 45.5  
ROCHESTER 16.0 16.4 17.5 21.1 23.5 25.1 26.5  
WOODBURY 23.6 26.0 27.5 31.4 36.8 39.9 41.1  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 21.4 21.9 24.0 27.3 29.4 34.6 37.7  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 13.2 14.3 16.8 21.4 25.6 31.7 34.3  
FORD LOCK 17.2 17.4 18.8 22.1 24.6 28.9 30.8  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 18.2 18.5 20.2 22.7 25.7 32.3 34.1  
LOCKPORT LOCK 17.8 19.1 24.2 30.8 37.1 41.7 43.3  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 14.2 15.3 17.0 21.3 27.2 34.4 37.9  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 10.9 12.4 16.9 21.4 24.2 26.5 27.7  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 443.3 444.0 445.6 448.4 451.9 454.5 456.4  
CANNELTON LOCK 42.3 42.5 42.8 43.6 46.1 48.0 49.9  
MCALPINE LOWER 52.1 52.9 53.5 56.1 60.3 63.7 65.1  
MCALPINE UPPER 21.6 22.3 22.8 25.0 29.1 32.2 33.8  
TELL CITY 41.8 42.0 42.3 43.0 45.1 46.5 48.1  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 22.3 22.8 27.3 36.6 40.8 43.8 46.6  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 17.5 18.3 20.1 24.9 28.4 29.1 29.7  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 6.5 7.0 8.5 15.6 29.1 31.4 32.6  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 9.0 9.3 10.4 14.4 20.2 24.5 25.7  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 9.8 9.6 9.1 7.9 6.0 3.8 3.8  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 8.3 6.9 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1  
ROCHESTER 12.1 11.3 10.2 9.5 8.9 7.4 7.1  
WOODBURY 11.4 9.9 7.8 6.0 4.6 2.8 2.6  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.2 12.1 11.8 11.7  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 8.8 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7  
FORD LOCK 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.7  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 11.4 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8  
LOCKPORT LOCK 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.4  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 424.4 423.5 422.3 422.0 421.7 421.5 421.4  
CANNELTON LOCK 17.8 16.6 14.4 13.7 12.8 12.3 12.2  
MCALPINE LOWER 22.0 19.5 16.3 15.0 13.6 13.0 12.7  
MCALPINE UPPER 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5  
TELL CITY 18.1 16.9 15.4 14.8 14.1 13.7 13.6  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 6.7 6.5 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO  
THE CURRENT STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE  
NEXT FEW WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE,  
BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.  
 
ICE JAMS AND SNOW MELT ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR FOR FLOODING IN THIS  
PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
 
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF MID FEBRUARY, SOIL  
MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS WERE ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
THE WETTEST CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. RESERVOIR  
LEVELS WERE ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH GO OUT THROUGH FEBRUARY 26  
BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK  
CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK  
CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME OF  
YEAR, NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
END OF FEBRUARY AND BEGINNING OF MARCH ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK  
FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE NEXT SPRING AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON  
FEBRUARY 27.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE AT  
WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV.  
 
CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA.  
 
CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH.  
 
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.LRL-  
WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
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