985
FGUS73 KLMK 131848
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-DDHHMM-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EST THU FEB 13 2020
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA, CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND THE
OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON, INDIANA TO TELL CITY, INDIANA.
THE FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THROUGH APRIL 2020.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 21 23 10 14 <5 <5
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 29 30 14 14 <5 <5
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 39 42 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 37 48 24 35 16 23
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 29 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
ROCHESTER 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 82 71 11 14 <5 <5
WOODBURY 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 90 >95 19 45 5 31
:KENTUCKY
CAMP NELSON LOCK 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 23 35 8 22 <5 17
:KENTUCKY RIVER
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 12 14 <5 7 <5 <5
FORD LOCK 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 15 17 <5 6 <5 <5
LOCKPORT LOCK 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 41 40 6 13 <5 6
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 34 40 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 31 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 46.0 50.0 : >95 38 26 9 <5 <5
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 61 29 5 <5 <5 <5
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 73 35 21 8 <5 <5
TELL CITY 38.0 44.0 50.0 : >95 63 38 13 <5 <5
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 54 52 19 22 8 13
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 49 43 28 26 <5 10
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 13 <5 9 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 26 30 19 22 15 18
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 15.2 15.8 18.1 21.8 26.4 32.2 33.6
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 7.6 8.3 10.3 13.5 21.1 25.0 25.5
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 11.9 13.2 15.7 21.0 27.7 29.9 32.4
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.2 11.8 15.3 16.6
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 11.7 12.9 16.0 19.9 29.5 38.5 45.5
ROCHESTER 16.0 16.4 17.5 21.1 23.5 25.1 26.5
WOODBURY 23.6 26.0 27.5 31.4 36.8 39.9 41.1
:KENTUCKY
CAMP NELSON LOCK 21.4 21.9 24.0 27.3 29.4 34.6 37.7
:KENTUCKY RIVER
FRANKFORT LOCK 13.2 14.3 16.8 21.4 25.6 31.7 34.3
FORD LOCK 17.2 17.4 18.8 22.1 24.6 28.9 30.8
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 18.2 18.5 20.2 22.7 25.7 32.3 34.1
LOCKPORT LOCK 17.8 19.1 24.2 30.8 37.1 41.7 43.3
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 14.2 15.3 17.0 21.3 27.2 34.4 37.9
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 10.9 12.4 16.9 21.4 24.2 26.5 27.7
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 443.3 444.0 445.6 448.4 451.9 454.5 456.4
CANNELTON LOCK 42.3 42.5 42.8 43.6 46.1 48.0 49.9
MCALPINE LOWER 52.1 52.9 53.5 56.1 60.3 63.7 65.1
MCALPINE UPPER 21.6 22.3 22.8 25.0 29.1 32.2 33.8
TELL CITY 41.8 42.0 42.3 43.0 45.1 46.5 48.1
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 22.3 22.8 27.3 36.6 40.8 43.8 46.6
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 17.5 18.3 20.1 24.9 28.4 29.1 29.7
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 6.5 7.0 8.5 15.6 29.1 31.4 32.6
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 9.0 9.3 10.4 14.4 20.2 24.5 25.7
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 9.8 9.6 9.1 7.9 6.0 3.8 3.8
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 8.3 6.9 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1
ROCHESTER 12.1 11.3 10.2 9.5 8.9 7.4 7.1
WOODBURY 11.4 9.9 7.8 6.0 4.6 2.8 2.6
:KENTUCKY
CAMP NELSON LOCK 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.2 12.1 11.8 11.7
:KENTUCKY RIVER
FRANKFORT LOCK 8.8 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7
FORD LOCK 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.7
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 11.4 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8
LOCKPORT LOCK 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.4
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 424.4 423.5 422.3 422.0 421.7 421.5 421.4
CANNELTON LOCK 17.8 16.6 14.4 13.7 12.8 12.3 12.2
MCALPINE LOWER 22.0 19.5 16.3 15.0 13.6 13.0 12.7
MCALPINE UPPER 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
TELL CITY 18.1 16.9 15.4 14.8 14.1 13.7 13.6
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 6.7 6.5 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO
THE CURRENT STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE,
BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.
ICE JAMS AND SNOW MELT ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR FOR FLOODING IN THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF MID FEBRUARY, SOIL
MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS WERE ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WETTEST CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. RESERVOIR
LEVELS WERE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH GO OUT THROUGH FEBRUARY 26
BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR, NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF FEBRUARY AND BEGINNING OF MARCH ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH
NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK
FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT SPRING AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 27.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE AT
WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV.
CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA.
CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH.
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.LRL-
WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
AMS
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