834  
FGUS73 KPAH 131751  
ESFPAH  
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-  
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-  
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-  
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-271200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1145 AM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS PADUCAH SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE TIME  
PERIOD FOR MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH MID-MAY. IT INCLUDES THE MID-  
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR SOUTHWEST  
INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE AVERAGE OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO  
AND MISSISSIPPI BASINS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES ACROSS SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY. AN AVERAGE OR NORMAL  
CHANCE EXISTS FOR TRIBUTARIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. FLOODING IN THIS  
REGION OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE, RIVER  
FLOWS, AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. ICE JAMS ARE RARELY A FACTOR IN  
FLOODING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS
 
 
SNOW...FROST AND SOIL CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION SINCE LAST FALL HAS  
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. 125% TO 150% OF NORMAL RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE  
LAST YEAR. PERIODIC ROUNDS OF HEAVY HAVE FALLEN SINCE DECEMBER 1  
PRODUCING RIVERS THAT ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.  
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE OHIO  
RIVER AND SEVERAL OF ITS TRIBUTARIES.  
 
SNOW IS CONFINED TO ONLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER BASINS WHERE LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE  
RUNNING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. FROST DEPTHS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR WITH NO FROST DEPTH REPORTED IN THE SERVICE AREA. SOIL  
MOISTURE IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS, FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE  
REGION. ADDITIONAL FLOODING THROUGH THE SPRING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON  
HOW THE SNOW MELTS IN THE UPPER PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO  
BASINS AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF SPRING STORM SYSTEMS. ELEVATED RIVER  
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SPRING.  
   
..PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS
 
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 76 47 63 32 <5 8  
PARADISE 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 91 76 52 40 <5 <5  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 80 68 45 38 18 18  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 93 33 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GOLCONDA 40.0 49.0 55.0 : >95 49 12 7 <5 <5  
MOUNT VERNON 35.0 45.0 52.0 : >95 76 21 8 <5 <5  
NEWBURGH DAM 38.0 48.0 56.0 : >95 85 <5 5 <5 <5  
OWENSBORO 40.0 44.0 49.0 : >95 43 27 9 <5 <5  
SHAWNEETOWN 33.0 43.0 53.0 : >95 88 81 41 <5 <5  
J.T. MYERS DAM 37.0 49.0 60.0 : >95 80 16 8 <5 <5  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 76 65 58 47 22 17  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 46 43 39 36 29 25  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 15.0 20.0 23.0 : >95 84 32 25 <5 <5  
:BLACK RIVER  
POPLAR BLUFF 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 37 20 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CURRENT RIVER  
DONIPHAN 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 25 18 9 <5 <5 <5  
VAN BUREN 20.0 23.0 27.0 : 10 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER  
FISK 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 18 21 15 20 9 9  
PATTERSON 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 58 55 15 11 <5 <5  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 72 60 18 14 6 <5  
MURPHYSBORO 22.0 28.0 36.0 : >95 68 45 34 16 13  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 20.0 21.4 23.2 29.2 30.5 31.4 31.5  
PARADISE 379.7 380.1 382.4 386.3 389.5 391.0 393.2  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 23.8 24.5 28.4 31.4 34.5 35.6 36.5  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 41.9 42.1 42.2 42.9 44.1 45.1 45.5  
GOLCONDA 40.9 41.4 42.1 44.0 47.0 49.3 50.6  
MOUNT VERNON 41.0 41.2 41.4 42.3 44.5 46.2 47.0  
NEWBURGH DAM 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.9 46.3 47.3 47.9  
OWENSBORO 40.9 41.2 41.4 42.1 44.2 45.4 46.1  
SHAWNEETOWN 41.9 42.6 43.3 45.6 47.8 49.9 51.8  
J.T. MYERS DAM 43.1 43.6 44.0 45.7 47.8 49.7 50.9  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 15.7 16.8 18.1 20.8 22.7 24.1 24.7  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 8.4 9.9 11.4 13.9 21.1 23.0 24.6  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 16.0 16.3 17.6 18.9 20.5 21.3 21.9  
:BLACK RIVER  
POPLAR BLUFF 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.4 17.9 19.1  
:CURRENT RIVER  
DONIPHAN 2.5 4.7 6.8 9.7 13.0 17.3 20.7  
VAN BUREN 5.6 5.8 6.5 7.4 10.5 14.3 18.5  
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER  
FISK 13.4 13.4 13.4 14.6 17.5 25.7 27.0  
PATTERSON 6.5 10.5 12.6 17.2 21.0 26.2 28.2  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 19.8 19.8 19.9 22.4 23.9 30.6 34.6  
MURPHYSBORO 22.0 22.1 24.1 27.4 34.5 39.7 42.5  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.4 11.0 10.3 10.2  
PARADISE 369.8 368.5 367.1 366.1 365.3 364.3 364.1  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 10.1 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.4  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 19.6 18.6 16.4 15.7 15.0 14.6 14.6  
GOLCONDA 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6  
MOUNT VERNON 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.5  
NEWBURGH DAM 20.9 19.5 17.1 16.3 15.5 14.9 14.7  
OWENSBORO 19.7 19.4 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0  
SHAWNEETOWN 20.9 19.9 18.1 17.3 16.6 16.1 15.8  
J.T. MYERS DAM 22.3 21.1 18.8 17.5 16.1 15.5 14.8  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 8.5 8.2 7.2 5.2 3.7 3.1 2.7  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 7.2 6.9 5.7 4.3 3.3 3.0 2.6  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 12.1 11.8 10.9 9.6 8.6 7.8 7.5  
MURPHYSBORO 15.1 14.6 12.1 10.5 8.2 6.8 5.9  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOKS
 
 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT  
WEEK PROVIDING AROUND ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN.  
 
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 20 THROUGH 26 CALLS FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME,  
NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES AND RAINFALL DURING  
THIS PERIOD IS AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL  
AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION FOR WEST KENTUCKY. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS  
BETWEEN AND 4 AND 4 1/2 INCHES. THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY  
CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PAH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 27 2020.  
 

 
 
LAMM  
 
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