367  
FNUS73 KGRR 181021  
FWSGRR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR A FRAME RX...MI DNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
621 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (616) 949-5150, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY MID MORNING  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES WITH HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS. RISING DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT RH'S FROM FALLING  
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY  
SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........83 AT IGNITION...MAX 92.  
RH..................71 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10  
MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1900 FT  
AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 16  
MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO  
THE NORTH 17 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....300 /GOOD/ AT IGNITION. MAX...300 /GOOD/.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM  
SKY (%).........95 82 84 21 29 42  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC  
TEMP............83 83 85 89 92 88  
RH..............71 67 65 60 56 63  
20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 SW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 18 19 19 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1000 400 700 600 400  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 3 3 3  
SMOKE DISPERSAL 300 200 100 100 100 100  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 77.  
RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN 23 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-100 (POOR).  
 

 
FORECASTER...MEADE  
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1912368.0/GRR  
.DELDT 07/18/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL OSTERLANDL@MICHIGAN.GOV  
 
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