020
FNUS73 KLMK 070923
FWSLMK
SPOT FORECAST FOR DAVIS BEND...NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
523 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON OCTOBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON, WE WILL BE MIXING UP TO 4500-5000FT WHICH WILL ALLOW
DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RH MINIMUM IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL DIP INTO THE 23-28% RANGE. GIVEN 10-12KTS TRANSPORT WINDS,
WE WILL SEE GOOD DISPERSION. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALL DAY.
TONIGHT, A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SCATTERED
UPPER SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
WITH AMPLE MIXING.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.
RH..................94 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12
TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1500 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
/54300 KNOT-FT/.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 72 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........2 3 5 2 2 1
WEATHER COV..... PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48 50 63 75 80 82
RH..............94 96 78 52 35 31
20 FT WIND......NE 2 S 1 SW 3 SW 5 W 5 SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST. 2 7 10 11 11
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 900 2500 4400 4900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 6 SW 7 SW 10 W 13 W 13 W 13
LVORI...........6 6 4 1 1 1
ADI.............3 7 12 39 65 72
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 2 8 27 48 54
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL (29100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 TO 41.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........0 1 0 1 3 13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............80 69 63 59 58 56
RH..............33 53 65 75 75 77
20 FT WIND......W 4 SW 1 SW 1 SW 1 SW 1 SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.9 2 2 2
MIX HGT (FT)....3200 400 200 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 W 8 W 8
LVORI...........1 2 3 4 4 4
ADI.............41 4 4 4 4 4
SDSPL KT-FT/100029 3 1 3 3 3
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 8
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (39600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 51 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........9 5 3 3 2 2
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............55 54 65 74 80 82
RH..............83 86 68 44 34 28
20 FT WIND......SW 1 N 0 N 1 NE 2 N 2 N 2
20 FT WIND GUST. 1 4 5 6 6
MIX HGT (FT)....300 400 1000 2500 4300 5700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 W 7 N 8 N 8 NW 8 NW 8
LVORI...........5 5 3 2 1 1
ADI.............4 7 11 25 41 51
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 2 7 17 30 40
FORECASTER...SRW
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL VASQUEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623077.1/LMK
.DELDT 10/07/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CMINOR@TNC.ORG,MICHAEL.VASQUEZ@TNC.ORG
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