286
FNUS73 KLMK 311036
FWSLMK
SPOT FORECAST FOR HQ RX BURN...OKNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR DISPERSION PARAMETERS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS, ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3400 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /20700 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...MARGINAL /32300 KNOT-FT/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................30 TO 46.
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........33 34 36 38 40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52 56 59 60 60
RH..............54 49 45 44 44
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 10 12
LVORI...........2 1 1 1 1
ADI.............30 31 37 43 46
SDSPL KT-FT/100021 22 27 31 32
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15
TO 16 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................7 TO 34.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........43 47 50 51 51 52 51 50 49 54 58 63
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............59 57 55 53 52 51 50 49 49 49 50 52
RH..............45 51 57 59 60 61 62 64 66 67 68 69
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE SE S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 10 12 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 16
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
ADI.............34 7 7 8 9 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
SDSPL KT-FT/100024 12 4 2 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81.
RH..................MIN 56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH
INCREASING TO 38 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 38
TO 41 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (78200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (110800
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 119 IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........67 70 74 73 73 72 68 65 61 60 58 57
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............53 55 58 61 65 69 72 75 77 78 79 79
RH..............70 71 72 72 72 70 67 63 60 58 56 56
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 10 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 15
20 FT WIND GUST.14 15 15 17 20 21 22 25 25 26 27 26
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 18 21 23 25 29 33 37 40 41 40 38
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............15 20 23 29 38 52 76 97 115 119 111 96
SDSPL KT-FT/10008 9 14 20 29 45 78 116 149 155 139 111
FORECASTER...CSG
REQUESTED BY...SANDRA ELLIOTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508448.0/LMK
.DELDT 03/31/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SANDRA.ELLIOTT@KY.GOV
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