846  
FNUS73 KLMK 200730  
FWSLMK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LONG RUN BURN...KY FISH AND WILDLIFE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY  
330 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, THOUGH A  
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS  
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........87 AT IGNITION...MAX 92.  
RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO  
5600-5700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /18200 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD  
/57500 KNOT-FT/.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................22 INCREASING TO 51.  
DSI.................2.  
 
TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........26 31 35  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............87 91 92  
RH..............61 52 49  
20 FT WIND......SSW 5 SSW 7 SSW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 9 11  
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 5600 5700  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 SW 10 SW 12  
DISPERSION......2 2 2  
LVORI...........2 1 1  
ADI.............22 45 51  
VRATE KT-FT/100018 50 58  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 72.  
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (300-32200 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................34 DECREASING TO 3.  
DSI.................2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........29 12 14 15 17 21  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............89 83 80 77 75 74  
RH..............54 63 69 76 79 82  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 6 8 9  
MIX HGT (FT)....4000 100 100 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 3 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6  
DISPERSION......2 2 2 2 2 2  
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 4 5  
ADI.............34 2 2 2 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100032 0 0 0 0 0  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86.  
RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4600 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 22  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1700-32100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (63100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 60.  
DSI.................2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........24 28 41 48 58 58  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............72 73 78 84 86 86  
RH..............87 81 74 65 61 59  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 SW 8 SW 12 SW 13 SW 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 13 15 13  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 300 800 2000 4400 4600  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 6 S 7 SW 13 SW 18 SW 22 SW 22  
DISPERSION......2 2 2 2 2 2  
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............4 5 10 36 63 64  
VRATE KT-FT/10002 2 9 32 84 87  
 

 
FORECASTER...DM  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS GRASCH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1815995.0/LMK  
.DELDT 09/20/18  
.EMAIL CHRIS.GRASCH@KY.GOV  
 
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