111
FNUS73 KLMK 090742
FWSLMK
SPOT FORECAST FOR DAVIS BEND...NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON OCTOBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH IS ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. DRY AIR MIX DOWN WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON RH AROUND
23-30%. IN THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED UPPER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 8-11KTS, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION TODAY.
TONIGHT, REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES.
ON SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35MPH WILL ACCOMPANY RAIN CHANCES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 84.
RH..................74 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 1 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1600 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR
/38500 KNOT-FT/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 TO 39.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........13 8 13 38 60 74
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52 51 65 77 82 83
RH..............74 74 52 32 26 25
20 FT WIND......E 1 E 1 E 2 E 3 E 4 E 4
20 FT WIND GUST. 2 4 7 8 8
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 600 2000 3800 3500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 7 E 8 E 9 E 12 E 12
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 1 2
ADI.............3 7 8 23 31 30
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 2 4 16 38 35
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.
RH..................MAX 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 TO 20.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........77 85 63 91 86 94
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............81 74 66 64 63 62
RH..............28 41 56 60 60 60
20 FT WIND......E 3 E 2 E 2 E 2 E 2 E 2
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 5 5
MIX HGT (FT)....2100 400 300 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 E 9 E 10 E 10 E 10 E 10
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3
ADI.............20 4 5 5 5 5
SDSPL KT-FT/100019 3 3 4 4 4
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 7 TO 13 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO MARGINAL (35300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................5 TO 40.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........94 93 83 87 89 69
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............61 60 65 68 67 68
RH..............60 60 60 61 73 76
20 FT WIND......E 2 E 6 E 8 E 9 E 10 E 11
20 FT WIND GUST.6 11 15 16 20 20
MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 1200 1700 1800 1900
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 E 12 SE 15 SE 18 E 20 E 22
LVORI...........3 3 2 1 3 3
ADI.............5 9 21 32 35 40
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 5 16 27 31 35
FORECASTER...SRW
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL VASQUEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623077.3/LMK
.DELDT 10/09/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CMINOR@TNC.ORG,MICHAEL.VASQUEZ@TNC.ORG
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