537
FXUS63 KGRR 151149
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
- BITTER COLD AIR SLATED TO ARRIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WINTER WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR THE REGION. MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TODAY AND A PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MIGRATE
REMNANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND TOWARD US 131
BRIEFLY AS THEY DIMINISH. EXPECTING AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR EXTREME WESTERN MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES
WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN FIZZLING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER JET DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL REINFORCE A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FOR THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AND LASTING FOR
MANY DAYS IT APPEARS. ECMWF AND GEM GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAVORABLE
PERIOD FOR MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC LIFT 06Z-21Z FRIDAY AS 500MB PVA
OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS PLACES OUR REGION INITIALLY IN A LOW
LEVEL SW FLOW REGIME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TURNING
W DURING THE DAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THOUGH NAM3KM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE INDICATING MORE OF A RIMED SNOW
VS DENDRITES DUE TO THE BULK OF THE OMEGAS OCCURING JUST BELOW THE
DGZ. THE 00Z HRRR SUPPORTS MORE IN THE WAY OF LARGER FLAKE SIZE.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN COBB SLRS VIA THE NAM3KM OF 10:1-15:1 VS THE
HRRR AT AROUND 20:1. AT ANY RATE, MODEL QPF IS AVERAGING
0.25"-0.50" LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WEST OF A BIV-GRR-
RQB LINE. THIS WILL EQUATE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW STARTING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED
EVEN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 30S. ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE LOOKING VERY LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
- ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
BEYOND FRIDAY'S ACCUMULATIONS, MORE IS YET TO COME OVER THE
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT 1000-700MB RH AND PERIODS OF LIFT THROUGH THE
DGZ WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS GOING WITH SOME SHIFTS IN
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LAKESHORE AS WELL AS THE US 131 CORRIDOR ARE
IN PLAY FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE
LAKE. IF THE WINDS SETTLE ON WESTERLY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
(IE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION) THE AMOUNTS MAY BEGIN STACKING UP A BIT
SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
- BITTER COLD AIR SLATED TO ARRIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WE'LL EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOME PRETTY BRUTAL 850MB TEMPS ARRIVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST VIA AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL PATTERN, AS
INDICATED BY 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE 490S DM OVERHEAD WHICH EQUATES
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THAT'S A FANCY WAY OF
SAYING IT'S GOING TO GET PRETTY COLD HERE. ECMWF/GEM 850MB TEMPS
DROP ALL THE WAY TO -30C ACROSS MN/WI AND THE U.P. BY MONDAY AND
-25C OVER US. HIGHS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE TO BREAK 10F IN THIS TYPE
OF REGIME, SO WILL SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH -15F TO -25F LOOKING MORE
PROBABLE WITH TIME. IN ADDITION, SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN MAY SET UP
WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AND
PROVIDING A THERMAL GRADIENT THAT WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SUFFICE TO SAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS COLD AND SNOWY AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL
MIGRATE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MKG MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED TO INCLUDE SNSH AND BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IF THIS BAND HOLDS TOGETHER. OTHERWISE, A LOWERING IN
CEILINGS IS LIKELY AT MKG BUT IFR IS NOT EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT,
SNOW MOVES IN AND INITIALLY IMPACTS MKG AND GRR BEFORE POTENTIALLY
THE OTHER TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RAISE THE RISK FOR
FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-
043.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING
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