608
FXUS63 KGRR 052238
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
538 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LIKELY TONIGHT
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
- SYSTEM MID-NEXT WEEK MAY BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND SNOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- FOG LIKELY TONIGHT
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY, SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, THAT FOG WILL FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN ADDITION,
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES, IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ROUND ONE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, AND ROUND TWO WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ROUND 1: FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION THANKS TO A 50-60 KNOT LLJ WILL DRIVE A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE QLCSS/MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS IS LIKELY AFTER 2-3PM FRIDAY. THE KEY FORECAST QUESTION
FOR THIS ROUND IS WILL THE WARM SECTOR REACH FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR
THIS CONVECTION TO BE SURFACE BASED. IF THE STRONG ADVECTION CAN
WIN OUT, POTENTIALLY OVER 1000 JOULES OF CAPE WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF THE
ADVECTION IS NOT ABLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED STABLE AIRMASS,
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MAINLY REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA,
THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL TO 1 INCH ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA, A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS
CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SURFACE BASED. THE VERY MOIST AMBIENT
AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-EVENING.
ROUND 2: SATURDAY MORNING
ROUND TWO WILL BE PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AFTER 2AM SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE QLCSS/MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY PERSISTS TO FUEL
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHEN STORMS ARRIVE. IF WE CAN GET
SEVERE STORMS, HAIL TO 1 INCH IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. IF WE CAN
BREAK THROUGH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT ROTATING STORMS SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER
HODOGRAPHS BECOME WEAK IN THE 1-3KM RANGE OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK LOW. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY BEING THE MAIN COMPLICATING
FACTOR. IF THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, THIS LIMITS THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE ARE MOVING INTO A NOTABLY WARMER
PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS,
NORMALLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S, WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CAN'T RULE OUT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 AT
TIMES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES
MID-WEEK.
- SYSTEM MID-NEXT WEEK MAY BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND SNOW
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING MID-
NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR
SETS UP, THE STRONG DYNAMICS MEANS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, MUCH
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LEAD
TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD.
WE SAW SOME LIMITED IMPROVEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE
BATCH OF RAIN THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WE ARE NOW SEEING
DRIZZLE MOVING BACK IN AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ONCE AGAIN
TO GO ALONG THE IFR CEILINGS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY GET
WORSE THIS EVENING AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 17Z.
THEN BEGINNING AROUND 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS (KMKG, KGRR,
AND KAZO) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT
WE HAVE MENTIONED IT WITH A VCTS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH 00Z SAT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY MARCH 6TH...
GRAND RAPIDS... 68 (1983)
LANSING... 65 (2009)
KALAMAZOO... 72 (1983)
BATTLE CREEK... 68 (1973)
HOLLAND... 72 (1983)
MUSKEGON... 67 (1983)
SATURDAY MARCH 7TH...
GRAND RAPIDS... 72 (2000)
LANSING... 74 (2000)
KALAMAZOO... 76 (2000)
BATTLE CREEK... 76 (2000)
HOLLAND... 71 (2000)
MUSKEGON... 64 (2000)
RECORD WARM LOWS...
SATURDAY MARCH 7TH...
GRAND RAPIDS... 53 (2012)
LANSING... 50 (2012)
KALAMAZOO... 50 (1983)
BATTLE CREEK... 51 (1973)
HOLLAND... 56 (2012)
MUSKEGON... 50 (2012)
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...NJJ
CLIMATE...THOMAS
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