932
FXUS63 KGRR 141746
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER INTO TUESDAY THEN POTENTIAL STORMINESS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
- QUIET WEATHER INTO TUESDAY THEN POTENTIAL STORMINESS
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN STREAM
REMAINS SEPARATE WITH A CLIPPER LOW PASSING NORTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERMAL
PROFILES OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREAS, WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN
FREEZING RAIN EPISODES DURING PREVIOUS PERIODS OF MILDER
TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER.
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK COULD ALSO BRING
RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
FRIDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AT ALL SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TAF SITES, WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS EXPECTED - PARTICULARLY SOUTH. MEAGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MAIN QUESTION FROM MID EVENING ONWARD IS WHETHER FOG WILL
(RE)FORM. WHILE THE WEAK BOUNDARY PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI
WHICH HELPED PROMOTE FOG TO THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND BECOMES VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT TONIGHT, IT'S HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT AND THE LIKELY
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MELTING SNOW TODAY. VISIBILITY AT MOP
IS STILL 1SM! SO, EVEN THOUGH UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES /FROM THE
SOUTH/ SHOWED LITTLE FOG THIS MORNING, WILL BRING MVFR VSBYS TO
MOST TAF SITES AFTER 03-04Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE SUNDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...SMITH
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