382
FXUS63 KGRR 161129
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
629 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK THEN STORMINESS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- QUIET WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK THEN STORMINESS
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL REACH THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE. MILDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK.
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, BUT ANY IMPACTS COULD BE LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD
BRING RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THEN AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY
AFTER 06Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
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