727
FXUS63 KGRR 111712
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1212 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH THIS MORNING WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND STILL TRENDING DOWNWARD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
- LIGHT SNOW NORTH THIS MORNING WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
APX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LES EXTENDING AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTHERN OSCEOLA/CLARE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING
REPORTED AT CAD AND HTL. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO LATE
THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND STILL TRENDING DOWNWARD
WE WILL SEE A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND CONTINUE TO LOOK UNFAVORABLE, WITH MAYBE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF I-96 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES. SUCH MILD TEMPERATURES NATURALLY
REDUCE CONCERNS FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, PROBABLY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SO, WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A VERY LOW STAKES FORECAST HERE IMPACT-WISE.
THE REASON FOR ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT ALL LIKELY HAS TO DO
WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (GEPS), WHICH HAS BEEN FAVORING A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS HAS BEEN AT ODDS WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE (ECE) AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE. THE AI GEFS DOES SHOW
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR, WHICH
SORT OF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GEPS AND THE ECE/GEFS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT IT'S SURPRISINGLY COMMON TO SEE THE
CONTROL/DETERMINISTIC MEMBER OF AN ENSEMBLE BEING A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MEMBERS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
COMMON WITH THE ECE, BUT IT ALSO HAPPENS A LOT WITH THE GEFS AND
EVEN SOMETIMES WITH THE GEPS. THIS SHOULD SERVE AS A REMINDER TO
NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK INTO WHAT CAN SOMETIMES BE A SCARY-LOOKING
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTION THAT MAY ENTIRELY
IGNORE THE FAR MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS PROVIDED BY THE ENSEMBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JXN, PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. JXN WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST RAISING CIGS ABOVE 2KFT FOR ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE DRIVEN CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED, HREF GUIDANCE, AND NBM
GUIDANCE WHICH HANDLES LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WELL, HAVE GONE
PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT LAN/JXN MVFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THEY COULD GO VFR LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT
IS LOW. LAN/JXN BEING FURTHER INLAND ARE LIKELY TO GO VFR AFTER
05Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS FOLLOWING INTO THURSDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...THOMAS
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