979
FXUS63 KGRR 161153
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
653 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
- PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEKEND
- BITTERLY COLD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGHING MOVES IN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE LAKE START OFF AS S/SW
AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED COMPONENT TO THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW TODAY MAINLY FROM HOLLAND TO THE NORTH INITIALLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN STRETCHING INLAND MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY, THOUGH DELTA TS ARE NOT
GREAT UNTIL WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. LAKE INDUCED CAPE VIA HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWS 100-200 J/KG STARTING AROUND 21Z AND THAT COULD
LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW MOVING OFF THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1000-700MB RH OF 90-95% AND ASSOCIATED LIFT OF 5-10 UBAR/S LOOKS
PRETTY SOLID FOR THIS EVENT, WITH PERHAPS A LIMITING FACTOR ON
HIGHER SLRS MATERIALIZING BEING OCCASIONALLY LOWER RH AND LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ ITSELF AT TIMES AND GREATER LIFT OCCURRING BELOW THE
DGZ. COBB SLRS ARE AVERAGING 10:1-12:1 DUE TO MORE OF A RIMING
FACTOR WHICH IS A BIT LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE AT 14:1-15:1.
NEVERTHELESS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE ADVISORY COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY, TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL LIKELY ESPECIALLY
FROM MONTCALM TO ISABELLA/CLARE AND POINTS WEST BUT JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL GET SOME ACCUMULATION TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO ALLOW
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING OF 1"-3" (LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE US
127 CORRIDOR, THEN INCREASING AS YOU HEAD WEST TOWARD US 131 (2"-5")
AND FINALLY THE LAKESHORE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
OTTAWA/MUSKEGON/OCEANA/MASON COUNTIES WHERE 4"-7" IS EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEKEND
WHILE IT MAY BE SNOWING IN GENERAL MOST OF THE TIME NEAR/WEST OF US
131 THIS WEEKEND, THE SNOW MAY GET HEAVY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW REASONS FOR THIS. UPPER VORT LOBES SWING
THROUGH AT THOSE TIMES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME BITTERLY COLD AIR. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED VIA THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODELS TO SET UP ALONG
AND WEST OF A LWA TO LAN LINE DURING THOSE PERIODS, AND WITH LIFT
AND SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ OCCURRING DURING BOTH WINDOWS. LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CAN OCCUR DURING TIMES WHEN TRULY ARCTIC AIR
WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE LWA-LAN LINE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW, THOUGH EXACT
PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL A BIT IN QUESTION. CURRENT NBM QPF
IS LIKELY UNDERDOING THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SETUP, AND ONCE HIGH RES
MODELS BETTER DEFINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL DEVELOP WE WILL GET A
BETTER IDEA OF AMOUNTS AND IF ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES ARE
WARRANTED. THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT SNOW EVENT LOOKS PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL WITH THE NAM12 INDICATING STRONG LIFT (10-15 UBAR/S) IN
THE DGZ NEAR AND WEST OF US 131 FOR AT LEAST A 12 HOUR PERIOD.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH. TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ACROSS OUR
LAKESHORE REGION AND INTO US 131.
- BITTERLY COLD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AND LASTS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS -25C AIR MOVES IN AT 850MB. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER MIDNIGHT, TECHNICALLY IN THE MID
TEENS, BUT WILL BE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY AS
WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL LEAD TO UNPLEASANT WIND CHILL
READINGS OF -10 TO -20. AS THE DGZ CRASHES TO THE GROUND THE SNOW
PRODUCTION PROCESS WILL OCCUR AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -18C AND
AS SUCH THE SNOW WILL CONSIST OF COLUMNS AND PLATES AS OPPOSED TO
THE STACKABLE DENDRITES. NEVERTHELESS, WHILE THIS TYPE OF SNOW
DOESN'T ACCUMULATE AS SIGNIFICANTLY, IT IS MORE EFFECTIVE AT
IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ON
MONDAY, TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK POOR. WIND CHILL READINGS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING MAY ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE. AS
SUCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN HAS PRODUCED
VISIBILITIES OF 1-2SM AND THAT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED HERE AS THE
SNOW MOVES IN. THERE IS A RISK FOR 3/4SM AT MKG AND GRR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
043-044-050-056-057-064-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
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