391
FXUS63 KGRR 250747
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
247 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY & THURSDAY
- WARM FRIDAY; SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
- NEXT WEEK: COLD EARLY, THEN WARMING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY & THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S CLIPPER SYSTEM, SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS
TRANSITIONED TO WNW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS WILL
STEADILY FALL LATER THIS MORNING. NAM12 1000-850MB RH AND
925-850MB OMEGAS SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY NORTH OF M-46 THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING. BUFKIT OVERVIEWS AT RQB INDICATE SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS (~5K FT) WITH LIMITED LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ. AS
SUCH, SNOW SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5"-1.0" POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR US 10.
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96 THURSDAY
AS A VERY WEAK CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. ECMWF RH LAYERS INDICATE
SOME DRY AIR BELOW 850MB SO IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH SNOW MAY
MAKE IT THROUGH THIS LAYER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
- WARM FRIDAY; SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
FRIDAY'S WARM UP STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL.
ALOFT, A SHARP 850MB GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STATIONARY 850MB FRONT SETTING UP JUST SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN, WITH SOME FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE
850MB-500MB LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT
GRR INDICATE SNOW POTENTIALLY FALLING OUT OF THE 700-500MB LAYER
WITH SOME DRY AIR BELOW. THAT IS AN AWFULLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME BUT NEVERTHELESS ECE 50TH PERCENTILE QPF IS STILL
0.05"-0.10" ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR
BUT THIS IS NOT YET A DONE DEAL, AS INDICATED BY NBM'S 50/50 TAKE
ON PRECIPITATION EVEN OCCURRING. WILL SEE HOW MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS WITH TIME BUT FOR NOW SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST.
- NEXT WEEK: COLD EARLY, THEN WARMING
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CHILLY E/NE FLOW SETTING UP SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS ARE SHOWING MOST
LOCATIONS STUCK IN MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BOTH DAYS. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE HIGH POTENTIALLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO ONTARIO AS 850MB TEMPS START TO INCH UPWARD OVER
MICHIGAN. IF ANY BAROCLINIC ZONES SET UP NEARBY THERE COULD BE
SOME WINTRY MIXES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING A RISK FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN. BUT FOR NOW, ENSEMBLE QPF IS MODEST FOR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI AND SOME MEMBERS DO KEEP US DRY.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND, POSITIVE
UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN
TANDEM WITH THIS, 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. ECE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOMALIES OF +10C OVER MICHIGAN BY
LATE NEXT WEEK AND A WARMING TREND IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS, A DEEP SW FLOW
PATTERN COULD TAKE SHAPE IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST PERIOD THAT
BRINGS NOT ONLY WARMTH BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GO WEST OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GUST OVER 20 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BIT THE CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...OSTUNO
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