406
FXUS63 KGRR 011111
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
- MAINLY RAIN LIKELY ON TUESDAY
- INCREASINGLY WARMER AND WET LATE IN THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2406
- CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
THE LIGHT SNOW FROM LAST EVENING IS ALREADY A DISTANT MEMORY HAVING
ALREADY MOVED TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND FURTHER EAST. THE ONLY
THING REMAINING THIS MORNING FROM THAT SYSTEM IS SOME LINGER LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. OUR WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A FAIRLY STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
THE AIR AT 850 MB IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TODAY, RANGING FROM
-11 TO -17C ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, WE ARE ON THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS OFFSHORE OVER THE AREA BEING FROM THE NNE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY, EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR AT 850 MB WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY TO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. WE WILL SEE A MODERATION OF HIGH
TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 0C BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.
- MAINLY RAIN LIKELY ON TUESDAY
WHAT HAD BEEN LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION, NOW LOOKS LIKE THAT POTENTIAL
HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. EVEN THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
GENERAL HAS GONE DOWN QUITE A BIT.
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS DIMINISHED A BIT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET IS REMAINING A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN BY A
LOT OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM IS STILL THERE, BUT NOT AS MUCH OF A DIRECT HIT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ADDITION, THE TIMING IS A BIT DELAYED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS THINKING. THIS GIVES TEMPS A CHANCE TO WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY LIQUID.
- INCREASINGLY WARMER AND WET LATE IN THE WEEK
EVEN THOUGH WE SEE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY MOVE BY, AND EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT REALLY ANY COLD AIR TO BE TAPPED AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET IS WELL NORTH OVER CANADA. WE SEE A QUICK
SFC RIDGE MOVE BY, AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR UP AND OVER THE AREA.
THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERN JET SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, AND KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BY THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
TAKE SHAPE AND COMPLETE THE PATTERN CHANGE FOR OUR REGION. THIS WILL
BE THAT A SW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL ALLOW ENERGY
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THOSE SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR NORTHWARD WITH IT, AND SOME RICH MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND FOLLOW
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EASILY GOING TO BE IN THE 50S, IF NOT
HIGHER. ALSO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AND WET WEATHER,
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA, BRINGING A THREAT OF SOME
STORMS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WE EXPECT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE SITES NOW. MID
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RETREATING TO THE NORTH AND DISSIPATING. WE
EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER THAT COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR IMPACTS WOULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
NEAR KMKG AROUND 4K FT AGL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE
THROUGH TODAY, SWITCHING TO MORE NNW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT, AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
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