194
FXUS63 KGRR 012247
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
547 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- WARMER AND WETTER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA, THE EXCEPTION BEING WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN NEAR LUDINGTON WHERE SOME LAKE STRATOCUMULUS HANGS ON.
THESE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE TAKING THESE CLOUDS NORTHWARD. THE HIGH
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
A RIDGE TO REMAIN SITUATED THROUGH THE AREA. BOTTOM LINE...BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS ARE DRY THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS THAT WERE IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30 TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS 40 ON MONDAY.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME, BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF IN BOTH PROBABILITIES AND
MAGNITUDE. THREATS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION HAVE DWINDLED WITH THE
LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN STEMS FROM A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OFF TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS INTO MISSOURI ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A MID LEVEL WAVE TO SPEAK OF DURING THIS TIME WITH ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE. BOTTOM LINE, SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT MAKES A SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARDS US. POSSIBLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG I-94, BUT THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN DIVERGENT WITH THE ECMWF BEING MAINLY DRY AND THE GFS
PUTTING DOWN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE.
- WARMER AND WETTER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
MAIN FOCUS OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS ON THE MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
WHICH STRETCHES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN SHIFTS WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. 850MB HEIGHTS IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME PUSH TO THE 570S
DM, WHICH IS MORE SUMMER LIKE THAN LATE WINTER. WE WILL SEE TWO
PERIODS OF RAIN ONE COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
MISSOURI LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATION MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWING
THROUGH. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WITH MUCH DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVES THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE MUCH
HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL COME A SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. 850MB
DEW POINTS SURGE TO +10C, SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FLIRT WITH 60F,
PWAT VALUES REACH 1.3 INCHES AND 850MB LIS DIP TO -3C FRIDAY
NIGHT. SO, TEMPERATURES HAVE A LEGIT CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE 60S
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL BE MONITORING BOTH THE THREAT FOR
STORMS AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD REACH THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THANKS TO
A DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LED TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
CLEAR SKIES THEN DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING MID MORNING MONDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...THOMAS
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