771
FXUS63 KGRR 191239
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
739 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING FOG IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN
- SHOWERS LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
- BREEZY FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
- MORNING FOG IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN
DENSE FOG OR FREEZING FOG HAS SETTLED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN NEAR AND
NORTH OF ALMA TO BIG RAPIDS. DENSE FOG FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS
CREPT INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL INGHAM AND JACKSON COUNTIES PER
SATELLITE AND MDOT CAMERAS. SOME FURTHER WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT IN
INGHAM AND JACKSON IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. MAY HAVE TO JOIN DTX
IN EXTENDING THE ADVISORY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
SOURCES ERODE THE FOG AFTER DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS
BUT OTHER GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO IT UNTIL MIDDAY, PARTICULARLY IN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN. FOG MAY ALSO RETURN TO CENTRAL MICH FOR A PORTION
OF TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS LIKELY, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
INDIANA, EARLIER THAN MOST OF TONIGHT'S MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED, WHERE
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 850 MB ARE ADVECTING MOIST AIR UNDERNEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMPLEX MAY SKIRT JACKSON ON ITS WAY TO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN ITS
EVOLUTION AND IMPACT. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR, WHICH HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS MORNING,
SUGGEST GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD EMANATE NORTHWEST OF THE PRECIP
COMPLEX.
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OUT OF KANSAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS TO WEST MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL BE
ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY MODEST MIDLEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- BREEZY FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM'S TRACK FRIDAY, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40-
50 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DEPENDING ON THE LOW'S EVENTUAL
DEPTH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CHANGE TO WET SNOW DURING THE DAY.
THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN TURNS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEPER TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH COLDER 850 MB AIR FLOWING IN. CAN'T COUNT OUT SOME LIMITED
TO MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON ROADS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 739 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AFFECTING MAINLY JXN, EAST OF LAN,
AND AMN-MOP SHOULD LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. FOG
IS LESS OF A FACTOR COMPARED TO OVERNIGHT NOW THAT SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ARE INCREASING.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH BEND (SBN) WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
TS AMENDMENTS AT AZO, BTL, AND JXN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
STORMS ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY
MOIST AIR AROUND 5,000 FEET MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
MORNING HAZARDS ASIDE, A PERIOD OF VFR IS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR AGAIN BETWEEN
21 AND 06 Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...CAS
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