288
FXUS63 KGRR 172319
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CENTRAL MICHIGAN FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT
- CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEEK
- LOW CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
- CENTRAL MICHIGAN FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING EXPECTATIONS FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARE AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THE LATEST HREF IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN IN TERMS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS LOCATION.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SENSITIVITY TO ELEVATION
WHEN IT COMES TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN (FZRA). THE GREATER
ELEVATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CLARE/OSCEOLA DROP OFF ABRUPTLY FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF MECOSTA/ISABELLA COUNTIES.
WE HAD PONDERED EXPANDING THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD INTO THESE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATION FACTORS AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
SUBSTANTIAL NORTH-SOUTH THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT, WE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE WITH THE ORIGINAL TWO
COUNTIES.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE IS A LOT OF BUST POTENTIAL WITH THIS
FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE MUCH SENSITIVITY TO THE WARM FRONT
EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT; CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THIS PARTICULAR FZRA FORECAST IS BASED LARGELY
ON CLIMATOLOGICAL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION HEURISTICS AS WELL AS
STRONG CONSIDERATION OF THE HREF. OBSERVATIONS AT CAD AND HTL RIGHT
NOW WOULD SUGGEST WE WILL STAY WAY TOO WARM FOR FZRA, BUT THEN WE
ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER NOTABLY COLDER AIR POISED AT OSC AND APN
THAT COULD CHANGE THINGS RAPIDLY OVER INTERIOR LOWER MI EARLY
TONIGHT.
- CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY MORNING
HREF GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THUNDER POTENTIAL, ALBEIT MORE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY AND CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
LIGHTNING FLASH DENSITY PRODUCT ALSO HINTS AT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED
TO BEFORE. THE SPC DAY 1 AND 2 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI WITH SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES STAYING BELOW 5 PERCENT.
AS NOTED BEFORE, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR GRAVITY WAVE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION (GWAC) WITH THIS ACTIVITY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IF A WAVETRAIN IS ABLE TO SET UP WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MN/WI/IA
VICINITY. ONE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF GWAC IS ITS ABILITY TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WIND GUSTS EVEN WHILE THE CONVECTION
IS ELEVATED, SO ANY NOCTURNAL OR MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INDUCED INVERSION
THAT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD NOT
PREVENT GWAC; RATHER, IT WOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR IT TO OCCUR.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEEK
THERE IS NOW SOMEWHAT BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MAJORITY REPORT TRACKS THE LOW CENTER FROM NORTHERN IL THROUGH
WI AND TOWARDS NORTHERN LAKE MI. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RATHER LONG TIME, PRESUMABLY WITH A LONGER
DURATION OF RAIN BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW, THEN FINALLY
SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THIS WEEKEND. SNOW EVENTUALLY
BECOMES THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WON'T BE PARTICULARLY
COLD; MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LESS THAN -10C, WHICH IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING SOME
FOG THIS EVENING AND THEN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ039-040.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...04
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