337
FXUS63 KGRR 232013
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
313 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN
- CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOW EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
- NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
VISIBILITIES OCCURRING BOTH AT LUDINGTON AND DOWN AT BENTON
HARBOR. NORTH FLOW LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE SNOW BANDS ARE OCCURRING
WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA T'S ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS C SO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOISTURE DEPTH DWINDLES AND RIDGING BECOME MORE
DOMINANT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN TO WARM SO INSTABILITY
WILL BE TRENDING DOWN. GIVEN FACTORS ARE TRENDING AGAINST LAKE
EFFECT GOING FORWARD NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCAL INCH OR TWO DOWN TOWARDS
SOUTH HAVEN AND COVERT THOUGH.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOW EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
A CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STEADY IN THE MODELS NOW FOR
DAYS...BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE U.P. EVEN SO, WE ARE LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATING SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. THE
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR I-96 WILL BE LIGHT, HALF INCH OR LESS. THE MORE
CONSEQUENTIAL SNOWS IN OUR AREA WILL BE UP TOWARDS U.S. 10 WHERE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL
IN A BURST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WORKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES
WILL LIKELY DROP TOWARDS A HALF MILE IN THE HEAVIER BAND.
- NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BEYOND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TOMORROW THERE ARE REALLY NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS IN THE PIPELINE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER CLIPPER PASSES WAY OFF TO OUR NORTH, NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
HERE DRY. A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR A STREAK OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY, BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, IT WILL BE A BIT UP AND
DOWN WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK IN BEHIND THE TUESDAY CLIPPER.
A WARM UP OCCURS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS COOL OFF ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN WE WARM INTO
THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED TAFS.
ESTIMATED PROBABILITIES FOR THE FOLLOWING TO OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IFR RESTRICTIONS: 5 PERCENT
FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS: 20 PERCENT (BEST CHANCES AT MKG)
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (GREATER THAN 2000 FT) WILL OCCUR AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS FARTHER INLAND (THAT IS, GRR, BTL,
JXN, LAN).
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS, GUSTY
WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SUBSIDE IN THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...TJT
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