474
FXUS63 KGRR 090452
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
- SNOW THIS WEEKEND
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
- RAIN THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND
A STRONG 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1 IN
THE NORTH TO 1.2 ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHICH IS ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX. A BAND OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHILE MOST AREAS SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END
FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY MIX WITH SOME SNOW NORTH OF M-20. THE
INVERSION WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS,
HOWEVER GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME
STRONGER GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE RAIN AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
- SNOW THIS WEEKEND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A ROUND
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD IN
AMOUNTS, HOWEVER STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
ALONG THE LAKESHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PROBABILITY OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
ALONG AND WEST OF US-131. AS SNOW TRANSITIONS MORE TO LAKE EFFECT
SUNDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-30 MPH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE POTENTIALLY TO 35 MPH.
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THERE IS NOT CLEAR PROLONGED DRY BREAK
AS WE SEE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION IS
MORE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S BEFORE BECOMING
COLDER THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GUST OVER 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
MVFR IN THE MORNING TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...OSTUNO
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