046  
FXUS63 KGRR 200702  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
302 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019  
 
- RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY; A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN  
NORTH OF I-96  
 
- FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
 
- A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019  
 
THE MERGING OF NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS LATE  
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME WET  
SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN AT TIMES MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. HOWEVER  
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT AND THIS NOTION IS  
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR. EVEN IF PCPN BRIEFLY  
TRANSITIONS TO WET SNOW AT TIMES THERE WOULD BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY  
SNOW ACCUMULATION.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING A FEW  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING  
FAIR WX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE  
DISCREPANCIES LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY. AT THE MOMENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A  
WINTRY MIX OF PCPN OR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FAIR WX WILL  
THEN RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY  
DETERIORATING TO MVFR MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS  
MOVE IN AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE  
FURTHER TO IFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND  
DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND RAIN. PRIMARILY IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS SHOWERS AND  
FOG. A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS  
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT  
INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
THE GRAND AND MUSKEGON RIVERS REMAIN HIGH AFTER THE WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT LAST WEEK. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR  
THE GRAND RIVER AT COMSTOCK PARK AND ROBINSON TOWNSHIP, AND ALONG  
THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT NEWAYGO AND BRIDGETON. MEANWHILE, A FLOOD  
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWAYGO COUNTY AS FROZEN GROUND  
CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE STANDING WATER TO DRAIN AWAY  
FROM SOME ROADS AND HOUSES.  
 
WATER LEVELS ON BOTH THE GRAND AND MUSKEGON ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY  
FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS. A ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT  
COULD DROP BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE THE ISSUES WITH PONDING AND  
STRANDED WATER ACROSS NEWAYGO COUNTY, BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY  
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RISES ON THE BIGGER RIVERS.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS  
DISCUSSION...LAURENS  
AVIATION...LAURENS  
HYDROLOGY...WDM  
 
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