198
FXUS63 KGRR 140811
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
411 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI
- WET WEATHER MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED NEAR I-96 AT 400AM WITH A SLOW
PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS OUT OF THE
CWA AND SOUTH OF I-94 BY MID MORNING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT TIME. MUCAPE
VALUES AT THIS EARLY HOUR ARE STILL AROUND 1,000 J/KG. BY 15Z
MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD DIP TO NEAR ZERO AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
CLEARS TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THE
MORNING WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT WE WILL SEE
MORE SUN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- WET WEATHER MID WEEK
ON TUESDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA AT THE SAME TIME. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER 60S, COMBINED WITH COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1,000 J/KG. A SURGE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET ON
TUESDAY TO AROUND 40 KNOTS MAKES SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY
(WIND/HAIL ARE MOST LIKELY). WE ARE IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL FROM SPC
AT THIS POINT.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALOFT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A STRONG LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 1 INCH IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS DURING
THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO STAY IN THE 70S GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT 06Z
DROPPING SOUTHWARD. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDE
THE FRONT OVER THE I-96 CORRIDOR. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT KMKG, BUT THE OTHER 5 TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH 12Z. IT MAY
END UP BEING THAT KGRR AND KLAN WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED.
OVERALL, WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MAINLY STAY VFR. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT CREEPS
SOUTH. SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE I-94 TAF SITES IN
THE 12Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME.
THEREAFTER, VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS EXITING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY AT 14-26 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM GRAND HAVEN TO THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK
UP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
WE EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET AROUND MIDDAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORTH SIDES OF NORTH PIERS WILL
BE THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACES TO SWIM TODAY SUCH AS NORTH BEACH IN
SOUTH HAVEN AND HOLLAND STATE PARK. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL TO
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ056-064-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ844>846.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
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