851
FXUS63 KGRR 182250
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANQUIL AND RELATIVELY WARM THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- TRANQUIL AND RELATIVELY WARM THIS WEEK
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BEYOND MUCH OF
THE TIME. A VERY EL-NINO-LOOKING SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET IS OVER
NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEK, AND MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER WEAK FLOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WHILE THE 30-YEAR NORMAL HIGHS SLIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL, BETWEEN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S. AREAS OF FOG TUESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER TODAY, ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY LIGHT ON WINDS, UNTIL THERE IS JUST A
MINOR UPTICK THURSDAY AND AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A COUPLE OF
WEAK TROUGHS RIPPLE THROUGH THE PATTERN. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT WOULDN'T FAVOR MUCH MORE THAN A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION IMPACTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY WHEN CIRRUS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LLWS CLIMBS TO 25-30
KNOTS TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP AROUND 2KFT BUT SURFACE
WINDS LOOK JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP BELOW INCLUSION
THRESHOLDS. LOOK FOR PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW, BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, ALL SITES EXCEPT MKG SEE
WINDS FALL TO AOB 10 KNOTS, WITH MKG SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF GRADIENT WINDS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING HIGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WIND AND WAVE OBSERVATIONS IN THE NEARSHORE HAVE BEEN FIRMLY IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WAVES
3-5 FEET AROUND SOUTH HAVEN, AND GREATER THAN 6 FEET NORTH OF
HOLLAND. GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE SO FAR ONLY BEEN IN NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. WINDS WEAKEN GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN, BUT
WAVES MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING TO COME DOWN BETWEEN
HOLLAND AND MANISTEE. AFTER THAT, NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ845>849.
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...CAS
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