875
FXUS63 KGRR 241707
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
107 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
- DRY WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
- COOLING OFF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND A BIT MORE SCATTERED THIS
MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING IN, IN A DECAYING STATE.
THE MOISTURE PUSH IS HEALTHY AND SO IS THE LOW LEVEL JET, SO WE
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL RISE TO AROUND 60F THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES
SURGING FROM 0.80 INCHES AT 2AM TO 1.3 INCHES AT 11AM. THE 850MB
LLJ THIS MORNING IS A VERY RESPECTABLE 30-40 KNOTS. INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE) IS WEAK, GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE BASED LIS THAT ARE POSITIVE. SO, WHILE WE SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, THERE SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT THE 850MB JET
BACKS OFF TO 25-30 KNOTS. THE 500MB MID LEVEL JET IS ALSO
DECREASING IN SPEED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHICH IN TURN
KEEPS DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. BOTTOM LINE WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM HIGHWAY 131 TO THE EAST.
THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW DESPITE AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY TO
AROUND 1,000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST TOWARDS MOP, LAN AND
JXN.
- DRY WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGING HOLDING ON IN THE WAKE
OF THE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING IN SOME PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEREAS THE ECWMF HOLDS PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ANOTHER SURGE OF 60F DEW POINTS AND PWAT
VALUES THAT WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY'S SYSTEM TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. AT THIS POINT TIMING DOES NOT LOOK GREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS, COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS NOT HIGH WITH
MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 1,000 J/KG. WE HAVE HIGH POPS (90
PCT) ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY.
- COOLING OFF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE UPPER TROUGHING AND COOLER
WEATHER. HIGHS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE 50S,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY, BUT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE IN THE SPRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR MKG AND GRR, WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARALLY FOR LAN/BTL/JXN.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THE POST COLD-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL FEATURE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND
LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY
BUMP THE WAVES UP TO 2-4 FEET FOR A TIME.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...DUKE
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