359
FXUS63 KGRR 101139
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN UNLIKELY THIS MORNING
- WARMER TODAY, CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
- LOWER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
- FREEZING RAIN UNLIKELY THIS MORNING
IT APPEARS THAT OUR WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS
PASSED. RADAR INDICATES THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF PRECIPITATION
HAD JUST EXITED EAST OF OUR FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA (CLARE
COUNTY). WHILE WE DON'T HAVE ANY DIRECT REPORTS THERE, IT'S
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OCCURRED
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA REPORTING CLOUD BASES
AROUND 10000 FT AGL AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES F.
- WARMER TODAY, CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT, BUT MORE PRONOUNCED COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED 40 DEGREES TO
THE SOUTH TOWARDS I-94, WITH UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
BASED ON RECENT HREF GUIDANCE, HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AGGREGATE (THAT IS, LAKE
SUPERIOR PLUS NORTHERN LAKE MI SOURCED) LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL SINCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
- LOWERING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND
THE ODDS FOR AN UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND HAVE INCREASED A BIT. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THERE REMAINS LIMITED CLARITY REGARDING EXACTLY WHAT
TO EXPECT; HOWEVER, WE DO SEE THAT MULTIPLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS NOW
POINT TOWARDS UNPHASED UPPER FLOW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT, WHAT DIFFERS FROM WHAT GUIDANCE SHOWED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS THAT THE TROUGH IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER
SOUTH THAN BEFORE, MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US, AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FARTHER SOUTH AND MUCH BROADER.
THIS SETUP IS FAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SYNOPTIC SNOW
HERE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ANY POSSIBLE SNOW IS A
LITTLE LATER NOW, MORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY
MORNING. BUT AGAIN, PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE ON THE
LOW SIDE (MAYBE 30 TO 40 PERCENT) AND PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE LOWER STILL (MORE LIKE 10 TO 20 PERCENT).
OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE, AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT
THING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. AFTER THE WEEKEND, WE ARE LOOKING
AT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING. HIGHS BY TUESDAY COULD EVEN MAKE A SERIOUS RUN TOWARDS 50
DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY CHANGES:
- ADDED MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS TODAY FOR MOST TERMINALS
- MENTIONED LLWS AGAIN TONIGHT
WE ARE HOLDING ON TO LLWS FOR A BIT LONGER. RADAR VWP WIND RETURNS
HAVE BEEN SPOTTY AT KGRR, BUT THEY ARE BETTER AT KDTX WHERE WE
SEE 30 TO 35 KT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 250M, OR JUST OVER 800 FEET,
ABOVE RADAR LEVEL. THIS IS PROBABLY PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT KGRR AND LINES UP WELL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LLWS
SHOULD DISAPPEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF OUR
NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
TODAY, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH ADVERTISING CEILINGS IN THE 1000-2000 FT AGL RANGE
LATER TODAY, STARTING WITH MKG FIRST AND THAN WORKING EASTWARD.
OUR EASTERNMOST SITES OF LAN AND JXN MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
FUEL ALTERNATES.
WE ADDED A BRIEF WINDOW OF LLWS EARLY TONIGHT WITH STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD BE A RATHER UNUSUAL SETUP BECAUSE
POST COLD FRONTAL SITUATIONS LIKE THESE TYPICALLY INVOLVE A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THANKS TO EFFECTIVE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WINDS,
RESULTING IN A VERTICAL WIND PROFILE THAT'S RELATIVELY UNIFORM. PERHAPS
IT'S A BIT AGGRESSIVE TO BITE ON THIS ALREADY AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE WHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SAME THING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
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