027
FXUS63 KGRR 051728
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
128 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/MONDAY
- WARMER, CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/MONDAY
LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES OVER WISCONSIN MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING AT THE LAKE SHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT CLEARING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA BY
LATE EVENING. IT WON'T LAST LONG, HOWEVER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SEE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT
RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS, WHICH SHOULD DO
LITTLE TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MONDAY WILL FOLLOW, DRAGGING A SHOT OF COLD AIR
WITH IT. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGD TO FALL TO -15C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NORTH ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. IT WILL BE COLD TUESDAY;
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.
- WARMER, CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEK
THE COLD AIR DOESN'T LAST LONG, THOUGH, THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST AND SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH INCREASE OVER
THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER. WE'LL
SEE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA, IF THE BOUNDARY SETS UP SOUTH
OF I-94. HOWEVER, WHEN THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BECOME QUASI
STATIONARY, THEY SOMETIMES WIGGLE BACK AND FORTH AND THAT MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO GET THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WE'LL
HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES BEFORE WE CAN DETERMINE IF
THERE'S A SEVERE WX THREAT OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
SLOW THE RATE OF RIVER FALLS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW CLOUD BASES CLIMBING TO
VFR WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.
A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS FORECAST BEFORE VFR
CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS
TO FALL BACK TO MVFR, LIKELY REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. INCREASED
MIXING BRINGS BACK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS STARTING MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.
WIND AND WAVES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
OVER A DOZEN RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE CRESTS ON AREA RIVERS WORKS DOWNSTREAM. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND WON'T SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT THE ONGOING FLOODING. MORE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK MAY BE A
BIT HEAVIER THAN WHAT'S EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
REMEMBER, NEVER DRIVE ON A ROAD THAT'S FLOODED, BECAUSE THE
PAVEMENT MAY BE WASHED OUT BENEATH THE FLOOD WATERS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...04
HYDROLOGY...04
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