970
FXUS63 KGRR 112316
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
716 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MID-WEEK THEN COOLER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- RAIN MID-WEEK THEN COOLER
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT A THIN DECK OF STRATOCU REMAINS. UPPER RIDGING WITH
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT THE STEADIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND STALLS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT AND BRINGING RAIN ON THURSDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
IR LOOP SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. BTL WILL BE THE NEXT TO CLEAR OUT...PROBABLY BY 00Z.
LAN/JXN WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO CLEAR OUT. JXN MAY CLEAR
OUT BRIEFLY, BUT THEN MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
MARINE...OSTUNO
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