936
FXUS63 KGRR 181751
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1251 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CENTRAL MICHIGAN FREEZING RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
- SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
- RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FRIDAY, BECOMING COLDER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
- CENTRAL MICHIGAN FREEZING RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND FREEZING IN CLARE AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ISABELLA COUNTY. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR HOW
TEMPERATURES TREND OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED. GUIDANCE VARIES WITH CAMS RUNNING COLDER, ESPECIALLY
EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS
WITH THE HREF, BUT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS WILL LIMIT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES
LIKE BRIDGES, TREES, POWER LINES, ETC. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
HEADLINES IN CLARE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES GOING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
(50 PERCENT) FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE IN CLARE COUNTY.
PORTIONS OF ISABELLA AND MECOSTA COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE BEFORE
SUNRISE BUT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LOWER AMOUNTS AND
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
- SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AS POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR THE
ONGOING SHOWERS. THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY
ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL
BOOST OF LIFT WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALONG THE FRONT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
100-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 6 TO 11AM THIS MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISABELLA, MECOSTA, CLARE, AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD HIT DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WE'LL BE LOCKED INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE) AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY (60 TO 80 PERCENT) BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
ONCE MORE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FRIDAY, BECOMING COLDER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE ARE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITHIN THE DIFFERENT
MODEL CLUSTERS. THIS IS IMPACTING TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND HOW
QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND TRANSITIONS RAIN TO SNOW.
LOOKING AT SOUNDING PROFILES MOISTURE DOES NOT GET DEEP INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL LOWER SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY BUT
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING AS DRYER
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LATEST VIS LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI; WE'LL SEE SKIES
SCATTER OUT BY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT LOCATIONS THAT
HAVEN'T YET.
WINDS WILL KICK UP WITH THE CLEARING DUE TO BETTER MECHANICAL
MIXING, BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH, THE
WET GROUND WILL HELP TO DEVELOP MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
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