122  
FXUS63 KGRR 161126  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
726 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
AVIATION  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. A COUPLE OF COLD  
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE REINFORCING THE COOL AIR IN  
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY. AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN LATE  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH  
THE STATE THIS WEEK.  
 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF IT. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH LOOKS POSSIBLE  
FROM NOON THROUGH 5 PM OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE LOW PUSHING THE  
FRONT IS NEAR JAMES BAY, SO WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY  
OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID  
30S. TEMPS IN THE MID 40S WILL BE ALL WE'LL DO WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE  
SOME SUNSHINE.  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK  
LIMITED AT BEST BUT THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY FIELD AND  
LI'S BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 0C FROM 00Z-06Z SATURDAY SO WE WON'T RULE IT  
OUT.  
 
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY. A SECONDARY  
COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY  
AFFECT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT HAS A STRONG SHORT  
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND SO WE HAVE SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS DURING  
THIS TIME. AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -8C SATURDAY NIGHT, THE RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW. MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMS ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN CWA ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND GIVE US A  
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20  
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. WINDS WILL  
RELAX THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.  
 
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO  
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10,000 FT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT MOVE BACK IN  
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY  
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT MKG DUE TO LAKE EFFECT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WAS TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING  
NORTH OF HOLLAND THROUGH 00Z. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE  
LIKELY. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
 
DESPITE LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING RESULTING IN TOTALS AT MOST OF A  
QUARTER INCH IN AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO  
FALL FOLLOWING CONTINUOUS RAIN LAST WEEK. INTO THIS WEEK, OUR NEXT  
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN  
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WATERS LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ065>067-  
072>074.  
 
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ846>849.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844-845.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...04  
DISCUSSION...04  
AVIATION...MEADE  
HYDROLOGY...ANH  
MARINE...04  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page
The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page