860
FXUS63 KGRR 012300
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY MORNING
- CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
- THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY MORNING
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2 AM
AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FORECAST WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR CENTRAL MICHIGAN FAVOR
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM LATER IN THE MORNING. WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER WET BULB
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THAN PREVIOUSLY, THE 12Z HREF FRAM AND
FREEZING RAIN QPF FROM ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SOUTH, WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE IN THE HIGH POINTS OF OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES. HAVE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO
OSCEOLA AND CLARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FAIRLY SHORT BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MODERATE AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY. IMPACTS ARE MORE IFFY
SOUTH AND WEST OF OSCEOLA/CLARE, BUT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD
BE AFFECTED BRIEFLY DURING MORNING TRAVEL. IF ICE ACCRETION IS
INDEED EFFICIENT IN OSCEOLA AND CLARE, SOME POWER OUTAGES COULD
OCCUR.
- CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-96 MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MID DAY ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE WELL
ELEVATED AND UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE. MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
IS THEN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. THIS
HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SETUP OFFERS SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND EVEN A TORNADO GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CURVED
0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. HAIL THREAT IS LOW AS MOST OF THE CAPE
WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN WARMER AIR AT LOWER ALTITUDES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
(ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026)
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH. WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EVEN
STRONGER ALOFT WITH A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A 70KT MID LEVEL JET.
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL HAVE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EAST DURING THE DAY. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLOWS
UP JUST A BIT IT WILL PLACE A PORTION OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR AT MAX HEATING. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS TIME FRAME CLOSELY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR BREAKOUT HAS FINALLY OCCURRED. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE WARM FROM MOVES TO THE NORTH. MVFR WILL MOVE
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER 05Z WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BY 07Z.
THE COLD AIR IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06Z
TO 13Z AT MKG AND GRR. FOR THAT HAVE PROB30S. MVFR WILL WORK
NORTH WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TRENDING DOWN WITH RAIN.
IFR IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER 11Z TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30KTS FROM THE EAST AT THE
SURFACE, THE JET AROUND 2KFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AROUND
20Z WITH THE JET SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE WARM AIR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON TRACK BUT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z. HAVE PUT PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
TSRA. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES COULD CONTINUE
PAST 00Z FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
BEGINNING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH EAST WINDS
STRENGTHENING LATE THIS EVENING, GUSTING AT THE SHORE 20-30 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS VEER MORE SOUTH BY
THURSDAY EVENING, BUILDING LARGER WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE, AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE LIKELY. GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
TWO MAIN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SHOULD ADD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN AND WESTERN/LOWER GRAND
RIVER BASIN. THANKFULLY, WATER LEVELS HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED FROM
THE LAST RAINY WEATHER PATTERN A FEW WEEKS AGO, BUT THIS WILL GET
WATER LEVELS RISING AGAIN. CURRENTLY, THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS TO POTENTIALLY REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS OVER THE COMING
DAYS ARE ALONG THE MUSKEGON RIVER (PRIMARILY IN NEWAYGO AND
BRIDGETON), AND ALONG THE MAPLE RIVER IN MAPLE RAPIDS (TRIBUTARY
TO THE GRAND RIVER). HOWEVER, ANY SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL CHANGE THESE RESULTS. NOW IS THE
TIME FOR PEOPLE ALONG WEST MICHIGAN RIVERS TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION
AND HAVE A PLAN TO RESPOND IF WATER LEVELS RISE UNEXPECTEDLY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ038-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ039-040.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE/CAS
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CAS
HYDROLOGY...AMD
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