345
FXUS63 KGRR 220003
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
803 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, LOWER CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) SUNDAY
- MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
- RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, LOWER CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) SUNDAY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY WITH GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
RAIN THEN MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS LOW (LESS THAN 20
PERCENT). DRIER AIR THEN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO BE PRESENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION THESE CHANCES WILL INCREASE, HOWEVER IF THE DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR.
HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS ARE SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THERE WILL BE VERY WEAK JET ALOFT, AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS
THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z. HOWEVER IT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT LLWS IN TAF. SFC WINDS WILL BE IN THE SIMILAR
DIRECTION AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST
BECOMING GUSTY TOMORROW MID MORNING WITH GUSTS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FOR FIRES TO EASILY SPREAD. PAY ATTENTION TO ANY
BURN BANS AND AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT MAY CREATE A SPARK.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH
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