863
FXUS63 KIND 220637
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
237 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS WEEK
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS)
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING...
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. STORMS HAD BEEN
ROTATING A BIT GIVEN THE SHEAR REMAINING IN THE AREA, BUT OVERALL
ODDS OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH CONTINUING LOSS OF
INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOME,
ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE FORCING WILL INCREASE IN THE WRAP AROUND
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
TODAY...
FORCING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS NO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE CATEGORY. THERE MIGHT BE AN ISOLATED STORM IN THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE INSTABILITY LINGERS, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO WILL LOWER
GUIDANCE HIGHS AND KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AN UPPER WAVE AND WEAKER SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN EXPECTED FORCING, KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL,
BUT WILL EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT
TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST
FORCING. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO
THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN AROUND. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN, SO THIS MIGHT HELP KEEP COVERAGE LOW.
IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AS FORECAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICES IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY LINGER MONDAY MORNING
- MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY
- VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST BY AROUND 12Z THEN
GUSTS NEAR 20KT MONDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME LEAVING
BEHIND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER BEFORE 18Z. OTHERWISE, POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER VALID TIME. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ067>072.
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50
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