876  
FXUS63 KIND 240809  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
309 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION OVER  
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.  
 
- TURNING SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BUT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY  
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.  
 
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...  
 
RADAR WAS SHOWING A BLOB OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND  
OVER AREAS NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS, EARLY THIS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP  
SHIELD WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD PIVOTING TROUGH, SEEN  
IN H20 VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM, THAT WAS  
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS  
HAVE SHIFTED FROM NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE  
TRANSPORT OF COLDER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS IN FROM NORTHERN  
INDIANA. OBS NEAR AND NORTH OF A MUNCIE TO CRAWFORDSVILLE LINE HAVE  
NOW INDICATED THE PRECIPITATION IS ALL SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN  
TO AROUND FREEZING AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. BASED  
ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND DEW POINT AND RADAR TRENDS, THE PRECIP WILL  
NOT TAKE LONG TO TURN TO SNOW ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT  
HOUR OR SO. STILL THINKING WITH THE ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE  
40S TO AROUND 50, THAT THE ONLY ACCUMULATION OF CONCERN WILL BE NEAR  
AND NORTH OF A KOKOMO TO MUNCIE LINE, WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CO-  
LOCATED WITH DECENT 925 FRONTOGENESIS. AT 08Z, BANDING WAS NOTED ON  
RADAR WITHIN THIS AREA, JUST NORTH OF MUNCIE, WHERE THE VISIBILITY  
HAS DROPPED TO A MILE AND A HALF. WITH THE POTENTIAL LINGERING  
BANDING, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH 7 AM WITH  
THE MAIN ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES.  
 
TODAY...  
 
THE SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THEN, RIDGING  
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND A DRYING COLUMN PER HI-RES BUFKIT  
SOUNDINGS, WILL LEAD TO CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SKIES BECOMING SUNNY, THE NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE  
FOR A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S  
NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST OR SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WARM ADVECTION WILL  
RETURN TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN  
ONLY SLOWLY FALLING OR STALLED TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, OVERNIGHT.  
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY HINTING AT SOME INCREASE IN MID  
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO  
REACH THE GROUND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...  
 
A BROAD ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONTINENTAL  
US...WILL INCLUDE A DECENTLY STRONG GRADIENT WHILE EXHIBITING A  
SUBTLE CHANGE IN TILT BETWEEN A WAVE DEPARTING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN  
CANADA AND THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER BEGINNING TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY. AMPLIFIED, YET SOMEWHAT WEAK SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A  
SMALL, WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD DRAG A SMALL  
LOOPING FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO THEN RETURN  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF BROAD 990 MB LOW PRESSURE  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BY LATE MONDAY.  
 
THE OVERALL RESULT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE MODERATION TO  
ANOMALOUSLY MILD LEVELS UNDER INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. THE  
SMALL WAVE TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL INCREASE AND FOCUS THE GRADIENT  
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE REGION, WITH SSW  
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH PROMOTING DIURNAL RANGES AROUND 30 DEGREES AS  
READINGS ARE BOOSTED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
DESPITE A WEAKER GRADIENT MONDAY, THE STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM SHOULD  
PUSH THE WEAK ROLLER-COASTER BOUNDARY TO WELL NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE  
10-20 MPH SSW GUSTS CONTINUE THE MODERATION TREND WITH 60S PREVALENT  
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
EYES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE BROAD AREA  
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS MORPHS INTO A  
CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF  
VARIOUS SHORT WAVES' ENERGY COMBINING INTO A BROAD SHORT WAVE NEAR  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL FIND ITSELF AMID THE  
PERHAPS RECORD HIGH MILD READINGS OF THE BROAD SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR  
AS RAIN AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT TO  
TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. PREVIOUS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THE  
SYSTEM'S PRONOUNCED AND ELONGATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE  
REGION...NOW APPEARS TO BE FAVORING A CONSENSUS FOR AROUND TUESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR MAINLY MODERATE RAINFALL WITH LIKELY  
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS, WITH  
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER 1.00 INCH FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN  
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE RESIDENCE TIME UNDER HIGHER  
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED AMID BEST FORCING. UNCERTAINTY STILL  
SURROUNDS THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT, ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL  
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING WITH RECENT  
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE NOW  
ALSO DISPLAYING MORE IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS  
OVERALL INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDING HOWEVER SUGGEST A SUBTLE LOW  
TO MID-LEVEL INVERSION MAY HELP TO MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL, OR AT  
THE VERY LEAST INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE  
REGION. VERY LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GREATEST SEVERE  
THREAT WOULD BE TOWARDS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WHERE  
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
DURING WHAT SO APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING  
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND REGARDING  
THIS POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SET-UP.  
 
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AMID THE SYSTEM'S PASSING  
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY CONDITIONS DROPPING  
TEMPERATURES FROM 60 AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY EVENING.  
DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD STILL INCLUDE ISOLATED  
THUNDER EARLY ON, ESPECIALLY S/E....AND MAY PERHAPS FEATURE A WET  
SNOWFLAKE OR TWO BEFORE MAINLY DRY AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE  
CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE LATE WEEK. THE NORMAL MAX/MIN AT  
INDIANAPOLIS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM IS 48/25.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
IMPACTS:  
 
- MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF IFR FROM THROUGH 10Z IN SNOW SHOWERS AT  
KLAF AND THROUGH 12Z IN RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS AT KIND  
 
- MVFR CEILINGS AT KHUF AND KBMG 07Z-15Z  
 
- NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS THROUGH 15Z  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA  
OVERNIGHT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL EFFECT KLAF AND RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS AT KIND BEFORE ENDING  
BY 12Z. MEANWHILE, ALL THE TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR FLYING  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT, VFR FLYING  
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 
NNW WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH  
MID MORNING AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL EASE UP A BIT TO AROUND  
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS LESS FREQUENT OR ABSENT.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MK  
LONG TERM...AGM  
AVIATION...MK  
 
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