224
FXUS63 KIND 130210
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT TUES-THURS.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT, WITH SOME CLOUDS
ALREADY NOTED UPSTREAM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FORECAST IS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S WILL MAKE STAR GAZING
IN RURAL AREAS EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD TONIGHT.
SATURDAY...
CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE OZARKS BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED MCV WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTATION IS THAT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE FRONT PRESENTLY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
KY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL THE APPROACHING MCV.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG/ TO WARRANT TS OVER FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO
HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCES FOR THAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH A LINE FROM DTW TO OKC BY 12Z SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS FORMING LONGER LINES TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA GENERALLY AFTER 04Z SUNDAY WITH
RELATIVELY MEAGER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH MUCAPE FROM 1000-1400
J/KG. GIVEN THE TIMING AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY THE UPDATED
DAY 2 OUTLOOK TAKING THE SLIGHT RISK OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA SEEMS
PRUDENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL, BUT WITH WEAKENING MID
LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENING EBS TO
UNDER 30 KTS, THE HAIL THREAT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
DAY. THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE FRONT CROSSING DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RESULT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
WILL BE TO STABILIZE MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QUESTIONS REMAINS
AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NAMELY ALONG
AND SE OF I-69 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BL DESTABILIZES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AS THE EURO AND NAM SUGGESTS, THERE IS A SMALL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THREAT FOR
STORMS/SEVERE WILL BE DONE BY 20Z AS THE FRONT SHIFT EAST INTO
KY/OH.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS 70-75 AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....
ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD SHOULD UNFOLD AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES SE ALONG THE BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON'S
BAY CANADA. TIMING OF THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD IS TENUOUS AT BEST AND RECENT NBM HIGHLIGHTING 80 POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS VERY AGGRESSIVE.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING PRECIP DURING THE EXTENDED,
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH NO INDICATION OF
ANOTHER HEATWAVE NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ALL BUT KIND, BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THEN MID CLOUD DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH. CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH. BETTER
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...CROSBIE
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