227
FXUS63 KIND 182002
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
402 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
UPDATE
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
DUE TO A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. FURTHER OUT THOUGH,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT, LINGERING THOUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THIS IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST,
BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM LATEST BLENDED INITIALIZATION AT THIS
TIME.
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, FOCUS
WILL THEN TURN TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT.
THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND A FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO THE HIGH POPS FROM THE INITIALIZATION THEN
LOOK GOOD. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IN THE MIX, WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, WILL NOT MAKE ANY MENTION OF IT AT
THE MOMENT UNTIL TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.
CONFIDENCE DROPS IN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY HANGING SOMEWHERE AROUND IN THE VICINITY. WITH THE
LOW CONFIDENCE, DID NOT CHANGE THE NBM'S LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE, BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION (DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING, THEN REFORM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT
THE WESTERN SITES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO ADD AT
THIS TIME.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
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