227  
FXUS63 KIND 182002  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
402 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD  
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY  
DUE TO A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. FURTHER OUT THOUGH,  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND  
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT, LINGERING THOUGHOUT THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH  
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THIS IS A HIGH  
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE  
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES  
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN  
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST,  
BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM LATEST BLENDED INITIALIZATION AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, FOCUS  
WILL THEN TURN TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT.  
THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE  
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE  
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH AND A FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING MUCH OF  
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.  
 
THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO THE HIGH POPS FROM THE INITIALIZATION THEN  
LOOK GOOD. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IN THE MIX, WILL HAVE  
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN,  
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, WILL NOT MAKE ANY MENTION OF IT AT  
THE MOMENT UNTIL TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.  
 
CONFIDENCE DROPS IN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE  
FRONT POTENTIALLY HANGING SOMEWHERE AROUND IN THE VICINITY. WITH THE  
LOW CONFIDENCE, DID NOT CHANGE THE NBM'S LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE  
TIME MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE, BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING, THEN REFORM  
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
ARE EXPECTED.  
 
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT  
THE WESTERN SITES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO ADD AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...TDUD  
NEAR TERM...TDUD  
SHORT TERM...TDUD  
LONG TERM....50  
AVIATION...50  
 
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