355
FXUS63 KIND 202036
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS FROM 30-45 MPH WILL DIMINISH REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
- COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-74.
- DRY AND COLD WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE RAIN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON....
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS
AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MI CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
AS A RESULT THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS NOW EXISTS
OVER THE FAR NE PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA ARE BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR NE WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF
WINDS GUSTS FROM 40-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 23Z. THEREFORE THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NE COUNTIES.
TONIGHT...
QUICK DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR OWING TO CLEARING
SKIES AND ONSET OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIND GUSTS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 23-01Z. OVERNIGHT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA, LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
SATURDAY...
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN AS IT PHASES WITH THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, SUFFICIENT
FORCING IN THE FORM OF LOW-MID LVL FGEN WILL LEAD TO A FEW
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. PERSISTENT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
HELP DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY SCANT ON AMOUNTS IN THIS REGIME SO HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW POPS (NBM HAS < 10 PERCENT) FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING TROUGH
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG DCVA COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MOIST
BOUNDARY, OWING TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-74.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING TROUGH
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG DCVA COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MOIST
BOUNDARY OWING TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-74. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, UNIFORM N-NW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA (850 TEMPS FALLING TO -
12 C) COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 2-3 C WILL SUPPORT A WELL ORGANIZED LES BAND TO OUR NORTH.
SOME OF THIS LES SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NE PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 1 INCH. AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE LES
SNOW WILL END WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING THANKS TO
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT.
TO
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING (LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS) THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM UP THANKS TO INCREASING SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS AND FLATTENS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING WITH IT A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN LIKELY MAINLY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE LATE FEB
NORMAL.ONDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, UNIFORM N-NW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA (850 TEMPS FALLING TO -
12 C) COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-3 C, WILL SUPPORT A WELL ORGANIZED LES BAND
TO OUR NORTH. SOME OF THIS LES SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE NE PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
UP TO 1 INCH. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BACKS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THE LES SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING THANKS TO APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
AND SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT. TO
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING (LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS) WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM UP GENERATED BY INCREASING SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING WITH IT A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN LIKELY MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RELATED PRECIP. TEMPS LATE IN
THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE LATE FEB NORMAL.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
IMPACTS:
- WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS IMPROVING TO UNDER 30 KTS
BETWEEN 20-22Z.
- OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IMPROVING TO VFR
CEILINGS BY THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
- MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TO KLAF TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE
WSW WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A RESULT, WITH MOST GUSTS DROPPING UNDER 30
KTS BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS GUSTS SHOULD END AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AOB
10 KT, GENERALLY FROM THE W-NW.
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 030 AT FOR KIND, KBMG,
KHUF, SO HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT 2
HRS, BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS/DRYING ALLOW FOR CEILINGS TO BE
SOLIDLY VFR. AT KLAF, CEILINGS ARE AROUND 020. EXPECTING A SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 21Z. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNAL OF MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO
KLAF AFTER 09Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-031-038-
040>042.
SHORT TERM...CROSBIE
LONG TERM...CROSBIE
AVIATION...CROSBIE
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