511
FXUS63 KIND 111307
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
907 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY
- SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH/WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS
- LOVELY SPRING WEATHER THURSDAY-FRIDAY..MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
BEAUTIFUL START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. 13Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AFTER A COOL START.
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A SMALL AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN INDICATOR OF THE BOUNDARY PASSING
THROUGH WILL BE A VEERING OF WINDS TO N/NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN CU AND MID CLOUDS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. REINFORCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH CU QUICKLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING.
LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S MAKING FOR A PICTURE PERFECT MID SPRING DAY. ZONE AND GRID
UPDATES OUT.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
LOWER HEIGHTS FROM SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF RATHER DEEP TROUGH
CROSSING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL HOLD READINGS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY DESPITE PLENTIFUL MORNING SUNSHINE. SOLID
LAPSE RATES AMID BROAD BUT RATHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MOST OF EASTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE SCT/BKN CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS AT LEAST THE REGION'S NORTHEASTERN HALF.
PATTERN TURNS TAD QUIETER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER ZONAL RIDGING
BETWEEN WAVES...WITH ROBUST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY PM FROM SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW ENTERING GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST PERIOD'S BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE A SHORTER
WINDOW TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.00-1.50 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT, NOW FAVORING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE LATE
EVENING TIMEFRAME, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WHERE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NEXT CYCLE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH COULD GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-35 MPH WEDNESDAY SHOULD ADEQUATE SUN COMBINE WITH SMALL
BUT BRIEFLY POTENT VORT SPINNING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM'S PARENT H500 TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE MORE REASONABLE BREEZES
SHOULD BE THE RULE WHILE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF COAST OVERSEES LOVELY BRIGHT SPRINGTIME
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 40S TO AROUND
70F.
PROGGED SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN US INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD STAGNANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE LARGE RIDGE, NOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...TO ADVECT WARMTH AND MODERATE HUMIDITY
MORE COMMON FOR EARLY SUMMER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN 80S THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST BREEZES LIKELY PUMPING DEWPOINT HIGH
ENOUGH TO FAVOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
T-STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MIDWEST, CLOSER TO
THIS FETCH. THE NORMAL MAX/MIN AT INDIANAPOLIS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD INCREASES FROM 72/52 TODAY TO 74/54 ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
IMPACTS:
- GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AT KIND/KLAF
- WINDS VEERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, FROM WNW AT 18Z...TO N
AT 00Z...TO NE BY 06Z TONIGHT
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. LOWER HEIGHTS OF
CORRESPONDING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING INDIANA TODAY WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER LAPSE RATES...AND THEREFORE HIGHER WINDS AND GREATER COVERAGE
OF MAINLY SCT/BKN CUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER THROUGH NW/NNW HEADINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AT MAINLY 6-12KT, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT AT KIND/KLAF LATE TODAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING, YET CONTINUE VEERING TO
NNE BY 03Z...AND TO ESE/SE BY 11Z TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING GREAT
LAKES... BRINGING FLOW AT KIND ABOVE 7KT FROM THE SOUTH BY 14Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RYAN
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...AGM
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