037  
FXUS63 KIND 181946  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN  
UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT  
MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE  
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE  
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE WERE BEING DRIVEN  
MAINLY BY OLD OUTFLOWS FROM A PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER  
NORTH.  
 
DON'T EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH DUE TO HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT TO THE SOUTH.  
WILL GO WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH  
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING  
IN FROM THE SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.  
 
A BUILDING UPPER HIGH WILL KEEP THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAD TO LOWER THE INITIALIZATION'S  
DEWPOINTS A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO THEM.  
 
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING  
(EVEN THE GFS IS DRY!). EXPECTED SUNSHINE PLUS A WARM START TO THE  
DAYS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER  
90S, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 110. THUS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION DOWN INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  
FEEL ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE AREA, BUT KEPT  
THE INITIALIZATION'S SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTH.  
 
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS  
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGH END OF CHANCE  
CATEGORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND STORMS MAY HELP KEEP  
TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SUNDAY. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING IN  
EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THEN, BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE WARNING  
FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
THE STIFLING HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE  
PROCESS OF BEING SHOVED SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF  
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR A MUCH MORE TOLERABLE AND  
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT  
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE RAIN  
AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TAKE  
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH IT. THE CORE OF THE  
UPPER RIDGE WILL REFOCUS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK  
ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION  
OF THE COUNTRY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING  
SOUTH...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY FROM MONDAY  
AFTERNOON FORWARD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS  
NEAR 60. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY WILL FEEL WONDERFUL.  
 
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL  
NUDGE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP A BIT BUT HINTS OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PULL  
TEMPERATURES DOWN YET AGAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/
 
 
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO  
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WITH A WEAKENING  
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...MAY  
SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT  
FEW CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS LARGELY AT OR LESS  
THAN 10KTS. COULD SEE FEW DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...  
BUT EXPANDING CAPPING INVERSION WILL MAINLY LIMIT CU FORMATION.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-  
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...50  
NEAR TERM...50  
SHORT TERM...50  
LONG TERM....RYAN  
AVIATION...RYAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page