022  
FXUS63 KIND 161727  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
127 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WITH A MINIMAL THREAT FOR THUNDER THROUGH  
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA  
 
- POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
 
- MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY  
SUNDAY  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES  
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MUCH OF  
THIS PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD DECK AT AROUND  
10KFT. QPE HAS BEEN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH SO FAR WITH MOST  
SITES SEEING RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 0.01 INCHES PER HOUR. WITH THE  
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING SLOWER THAN FORECAST,  
THE INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR ZERO WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH  
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THUS EXPECT NEAR ZERO COVERAGE OF  
LIGHTNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO THE  
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ON THE  
EASTSIDE OF THE NEAR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH GOOD MOISTURE FLUX.  
 
ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND  
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME BEING ANY  
STRONGER CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE  
OHIO RIVER. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN IN POCKETS OF NON-  
DENSE FOG AS THE NEAR SURFACE SATURATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD  
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.  
 
TUESDAY.  
 
SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL  
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE  
SURFACE LOW AS IT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT WHICH  
WILL BRING GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR  
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLEARING WILL BE AS EARLY AS  
LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING  
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE EXITED  
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED LOW  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN  
ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WHICH WILL PUSH  
EASTWARDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT  
THIS COMPLEX WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT A MESO-LOW/MCV  
WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY BE A CATALYST  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THAT IS CURRENTLY A POSSIBLE BUT NOT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS  
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THAT THIS MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA WITH  
THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME BEING THAT CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS CAPPED  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT  
BEING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT  
OVERCOMES THE CAP AND BRINGS A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
THROUGH THE STATE.  
 
BOTH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER WITH ML CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2-3K J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR  
OF 30-45KTS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE ISOLATED STORMS WILL INITIATE IN  
ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE  
EVENING WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MORE  
LIKELY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS  
IN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PATTERN  
SHIFT TO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS SETTLING IN BY FRIDAY.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR  
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A 595DM RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL  
HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS GRADUALLY  
RISING INTO THE MID 70S TOWARDS SUNDAY. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RISE  
INTO THE LOW 100S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS AS HIGH AS 105.  
HEAT RISK MAPS SHOW WIDESPREAD MAJOR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH BOTH THE HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS AND MILD AND  
MUGGY NIGHTS. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY WHEN  
YOU FACTOR IN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO SUMMER AND THIS BEING THE  
FIRST WIDESPREAD 90S AND FIRST WIDESPREAD DAYS OF DEW POINTS IN THE  
MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
 
IMPACTS:  
 
-VFR THROUGH 06Z, MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z  
-BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 00Z, ADDITIONAL CHANCES TONIGHT  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH CIGS AROUND 100 AND  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS IMPACTING  
BMG AND IND WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH PERIODIC ADDITIONAL LIGHT  
RAIN THROUGH 00Z. BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING  
AND TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES AT BMG. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER  
06Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT HUF AND BMG.  
ADDITIONAL NON-DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WHITE  
LONG TERM...WHITE  
AVIATION...WHITE  
 
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