772
FXUS63 KIND 150658
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 90S
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
- SHOWER AND STORM RISKS PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY...
MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET WITH UPPER RIDGING STILL THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
IN HOT AND HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WARM MID LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, SOME INFLUENCE FROM UPPER ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE
AS WELL AS FROM A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE SOME MAINLY CHANCE POPS THERE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS,
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
TONIGHT...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. INCREASING 850MB WINDS, ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY, AND
POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL ALL AID IN
PRODUCING SOME MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AROUND.
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD END THE THREAT OVERNIGHT. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AROUND AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED SOME ON WEDNESDAY, MAKING
UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
AREA, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE THIS ZONE WILL END UP ALONG AND IN SKY
COVER/RAIN COVERAGE LEADS TO DECENT UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
A FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL KEEP THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AT TIMES, BUT TIMING OF THE
HIGHEST POPS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE RIDGE GETS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW COOLER AIR TO GRADUALLY FILTER IN. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH CHANCES LOWERING AS THE FRONT EXITS.
HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
IMPACTS:
- CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KLAF AND AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT
DISCUSSION:
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING. THIS EVENING, SOME MID CLOUD WILL INCREASE.
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND KLAF LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THERE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50
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