024
FXUS63 KIND 191315
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY AND MONDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL SMOKE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA
- GROWING CONCERN FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
- NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
HAZY MORNING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT HAS BEEN
DRAWN INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF N/NE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH 13Z
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH
PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN THE VINCENNES AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN HAZY
CONDITIONS AND A BIT OF A MILKY SKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AS WELL. LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S OVER FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL RETURN WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, SOME OF WHICH COULD MIX DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE. AIR
QUALITY ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE IMPACTS.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH THE SMOKE BACK NORTH.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNALS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE
MODELS DIVERGE SOME, LIMITING CONFIDENCE ON DETAIL OF ITS
DEVELOPMENT, DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THE
MOMENT AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
AND EVEN DRIER AIR LEADING TO A PLEASANT LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
PROBABLY AS THE HIGH EXITS AND CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
IMPACTS:
- SMOKE WILL CAUSE HAZY SKIES
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE
FEW CAVEATS WOULD BE LINGERING FOG AT THE TOP OF THE PERIOD AT LAF
AND THEN SMOKE ALOFT COULD CREATE HAZY CONDITIONS, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 10 KT FROM THE NE.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RYAN
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF
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