254
FXUS63 KIND 031902
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- GENERALLY HUMID, SEASONABLY WARM WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RAIN MOST LIKELY
THURSDAY-FRIDAY
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS DECK FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING. LINGERING SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, VERY LIGHT WINDS,
AND DAMP GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COULD PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOP WILL
MIX OUT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK THANKS TO
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. THESE
IMPULSES WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ON THURSDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING
OVERLAPS WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR
THE REGION BY THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUPPORTS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER, SOME
MODELS DIFFER AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
ALOFT. THESE DIFFERENCES LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY ONWARD.
EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS, BUT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AT TIMES AND ENHANCEMENT OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PASSING WAVES COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MODELS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z, VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
- FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THE OUTLYING TAF
SITES
DISCUSSION:
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CALM AND
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT COULD ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE FOG,
MAINLY AT THE OUTLYING TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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