778
FXUS63 KIND 311951
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT
- RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS CAN'T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING SHOWER AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
WHILE CAMS ARE NOT GREATLY REFLECTIVE OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION,
AT LEAST IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION, IT DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH PWATS NEAR 2" AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
DUMPING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF OUT DRIVING. FOR
TOTAL WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS, WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-2, MAYBE UP TO 3
INCHES IS EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO PROBABLE.
WHERE THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS END UP IS THE QUESTION AND WILL
DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE LOW PROGRESSES, THE EXACT TRACK IT
TAKES, AND ANY MESOSCALE FORCING THAT IS STRUGGLING TO BE RESOLVED
IN MODELS. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL TYPICALLY BE FOUND IN THE COMMA HEAD
OF THE LOW, WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO MOST LIKELY BE IN THE NW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREAS NORTH OF THERE.
IN ADDITION TO FLOODING, THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN THREAT BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME ROTATION HAPPENING, EITHER IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
OR MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD.
GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK, MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE LOW AND THE UPPER
TROUGHING SYSTEM WILL REACH THANKS LARGELY TO A BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE ARE TIMES WHEN THE LOW COULD REGRESS
BACK TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY IT IS EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
TROUGHING PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN
THESE UNKNOWNS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. KEEPING WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS AT LEAST SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
IMPACTS:
- MAINLY VFR TODAY. MVFR VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09-11Z SATURDAY
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z SATURDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH INDIANA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 07-08Z SAT AND POTENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SCATTERED STORMS.
MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO REMAINS HIGH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...KF
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