865  
FXUS63 KIND 141827  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
227 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUING  
 
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  
 
- TURNING COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING AND  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE  
RIDGE AXIS CLEARLY DEFINED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS WIDESPREAD  
CLOUD COVER EXISTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEAK  
WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE AND VERY DRY  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
FROM SUSTAINING ITSELF INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT OR  
TOMORROW. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS  
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND DYING  
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THICKEST CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER  
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT,  
WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH. ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT  
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
GOING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR LOW TEMPERATURES,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD  
PROVIDE SOME INSULATION FROM OVERNIGHT HEAT LOSS. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE  
FROM THE MID 50S FURTHER NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WHERE SKIES  
REMAIN CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THOSE WITH CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WHILE  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ONCE  
AGAIN.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
MODELS SHOW STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS  
STATES, DRIFTING OVER INDIANA ON THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE  
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE  
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A VERY  
LARGE, ASSOCIATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS  
INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING  
APPALACHIA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOLER EAST OR  
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY, THUS MORE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR  
NIGHTS WILL BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE  
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 ON  
THURSDAY AND MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...  
 
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST ARE FOUND HERE. MODELS  
SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT OVER INDIANA, THIS FLOW WAS  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
MODELS SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING DYNAMICS STREAMING ACROSS  
INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE  
PROCESS. AMPLE MOISTURE APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME ON SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVELS SHOW SATURATION. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE  
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST SATURATION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL  
CAPE. SOME SPEED SHEAR APPEARS PRESENT. FLOODING ASPECT CONFIDENCE  
IS ALSO LOW DUE TO DRY GROUND AND RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG TROUGH, STRONG RIDGING  
OVER THE PLAINS RETURNS OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS  
INDIANA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MODERATELY  
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVERALL, BUT OVERALL THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR  
SUBSIDENCE OVER INDIANA. AGAIN, MODELS SUGGEST DRY AIR ASSOCIATED  
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY  
FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S  
AND LOW 60S, NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
 
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
IMPACTS:  
 
- NONE  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE ACROSS INDIANA. CALM TO LIGHT NE  
WINDS PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BECOMING  
EASTERLY (070-090 DEG) AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AND REMAINING LIGHT.  
 
HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, HOWEVER CIGS ARE  
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO VIS ISSUES.  
 
 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CM  
LONG TERM...PUMA  
AVIATION...CM  
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