419
FXUS63 KIND 181357
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TODAY, MAINLY FOR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022
EARLY THIS MORNING, WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE CONVECTION WAS
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WERE IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WAS BACK IN WESTERN MISSOURI AND IOWA, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE.
THE INITIAL ROUND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA MAINLY BEFORE 12Z, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS. WILL HAVE SOME MAINLY
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AFTER 12Z WILL COME FROM YET ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
EARLY MORNING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP
THE ATMOSPHERE. AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND BRING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OLD
CONVECTION AND WILL SLOW DOWN HEATING, SO INSTABILITY WON'T BE
GREAT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AT THE MOMENT SHOULD WEAKEN DIURNALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING, IT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME
WITH WHAT INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. HOWEVER, SINCE WHAT INSTABILITY
BUILDS SHOULD BE LIMITED, FEEL THAT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW
OVER THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE, FORCING, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND FOR LIKELY
OR HIGHER POPS MOST AREAS TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S TODAY.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AS USUAL, MESOSCALE FEATURES COULD CHANGE
THE EXPECTED TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TODAY, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN WOULD LIKE TO SEE TODAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THE THE STORMS WILL PUSH MOST WHAT'S LEFT OF
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH. THUS, WILL ONLY HAVE
SOME CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN FROM
THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. LOWS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY QUASI-ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH.
THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THUS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY FORCING. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
MOST AREAS, BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE OLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THEN.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINALLY LOOKED TO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO HOLD AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT WAA AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BRINGING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LARGE FACTOR
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE AND CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAINS LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ABUNDANT
CAPE BUT MARGINAL SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ISOLATED FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH A WIDESPREAD 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN THE AFTERMATH OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG CAA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN INDIANA UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE STORM TRACK FAVORS
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022
IMPACTS:
* MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL.
* MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ENDS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
* WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWER SPEEDS.
DISCUSSION:
AREA OF SHOWERS (WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) NEAR ST LOUIS AT
THE MOMENT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS,
WITH PERHAPS LOWER CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AT MOST SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...50
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