609
FXUS63 KIND 221301
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
901 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SE TO
INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS WAS RESULTING IN NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. GOES19 SHOWS JUST SOME
CU ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, RIDGING WAS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH NW FLOW SPILLING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST. ONGOING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR ON TRACK AND
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FAVORS QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE
NORTH FILTERING IN COOLER-DRIER AIR. DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WELL INTO THE 50S. LOOK
FOR DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA TO ALSO FALL WELL INTO THE
50S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DIURNAL MIXING LATER TODAY MAY EVEN
DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S. THIS MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALONG
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EXPECT AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY TO RESULT
IN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PROVIDING MOSTLY
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL RETURN LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT TIMES LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVES COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MODELS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOW-MID 70S MAY ALSO
LEAD TO PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR WIND DIRECTION TO REMAIN
NORTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED TODAY ALLOWING SOME SCT VFR CU.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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