111
FXUS63 KIND 131938
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- MORE LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
INDIANA WHICH WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT
OVER SW ONTARIO WAS NOTED SURGING SOUTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN ITS WAKE. ALOFT, STRONG RIDGING WAS FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAS ALLOWING RIDGE RIDING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY. ABUNDANT MID CLOUD WAS SHOWN ON GOES19 STREAMING ACROSS IN,
RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LOW OVER LOWER MI. THIS FEATURE WAS PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER MI.
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN END TO
THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. MEANWHILE ALOFT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD INDIANA, DEEPENING ALONG THE WAY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES. HRRR SUGGESTS THE ARRIVAL OF OF SOME VERY LIGHT AND
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z. LOWER LEVELS AT THAT POINT STILL
LOOK ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL START AS RAIN BEFORE
QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOW POPS WILL BE USED AS CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS IS QUITE LOW. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE EARLIER DISCUSSED ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE REACHED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE DAY,
PROVIDING TOP DOWN SUBSIDENCE, BUT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED BENEATH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AN INVERSION ALOFT AS SEEN
WITHIN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A STRAY FLURRY OF SNOW SHOWER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ALSO
SUPPORTING A FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER, THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES, CAPABLE OF LOWER LEVEL CONVECTION.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE LONG TERM LOOKS COLD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA, WITH JUST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS
THERE. WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE KOKOMO AREA. MAY HAVE TO REFINE THEM LATER WHEN
IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE ANY BANDS WILL SET UP. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE THAT WILL ENHANCE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE FRONT END OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, LIKELY HAVING SOME IMPACT ON THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
SURGING COLDER AIR ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MORE
SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH THE COLDER AIR. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH COLD AIR BEING REINFORCED AT TIMES. ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. STILL, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SQUEEZED OUT AT TIMES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL OR PARTS OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
IMPACTS:
- WINDS GUSTS NEAR 30 KNTS THIS AFTERNOON.
- VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
DISCUSSION:
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
DURING DAYTIME HOURS. GOES19 SHOWS A STREAM OF PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS INDIANA. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY, THUS NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE NORTH. WEAK
FORCING WITH THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
LIQUID, BUT BY AFTER 10-12Z...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL HAVE ARRIVED TO
CREATE SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOWER LEVEL SATURATION AND MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS INDIANA.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...PUMA
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