503
FXUS63 KIND 071334
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
10 AM. BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE
NE
- WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, WHICH MAY BRING
RECEDING RIVERS BACK INTO FLOOD IN SOME AREAS, WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL 10AM THIS MORNING.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH, BUT DRY AIR FROM THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET. AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
EXPECT A CHILLY SPRING DAY TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND
LOW 50S DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. INCREASING DIURNAL MIXING
SUPPORTS MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20-35% THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
QUIET BUT CHILLY START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH, BUT ELSEWHERE
NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S WILL START THE DAY THANKS TO A
SURFACE HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE EAST TODAY, SHIFTING THE WINDS WITH IT WHICH WILL START FROM
THE NNE TO E BY TONIGHT. NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL FINALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
WAA AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT OFF OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST TO OUR NW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, LIMITING POPS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
FRIDAY AND ON, PROMPTING OUR BEST PRECIP AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
EXPECTATION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINS A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN RESPONSE
TO MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING ALONG IT, AND MAY PRODUCE
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION, THOUGH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
LIMIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS HERE.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH
COULD PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ON MAIN STEM RIVERS
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF THE WET WEATHER IN RECENT
WEEKS. HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLES DO SHOW RENEWED RIVER RISES NEXT WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL, THOUGH A MOSTLY DRY WEEK
WILL HELP TO HOPEFULLY BLUNT THESE IMPACTS A BIT.
THERE IS LITTLE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREATS DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY
EXPERIMENTAL MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, WEEK TWO OUTLOOKS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS, THUS WE MAY WELL BE BACK IN
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE APRIL, AND AT A MINIMUM
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS AT LEAST A THREAT OR TWO FOR SEVERE AT SOME
POINT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
IMPACTS:
- WINDS SHIFTING FROM NNE TO E
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GENERALLY AROUND OR BELOW 10KT. LITTLE ELSE OF NOTE IS
EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-054>057-065.
UPDATE...MELO
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
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