684
FXUS63 KIND 100923
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER AIR RETURNING BY SUNDAY
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND RENEWED FLOODING
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALL OF
THE SHOWERS WERE POSTFRONTAL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ILLINOIS.
06Z TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY BEFORE SURGING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF NEXT
WEEK...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING PERIODIC CONVECTIVE THREATS TO THE
REGION IN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CONVECTION HAS STEADILY WEAKENED TO THE WEST AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
LOST. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PULL DOWN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SCATTERED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDER WILL BE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PRESS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT MAY MAKE IT AS LOW AS
36 OR 37 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA BUT ANY FROST ACCRUAL
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH WINDS HOVERING AT 5-10MPH ALL
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...A WINDY AND MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL REGIME HIGHLIGHTED BY A WESTERN TROUGH AND
AN EASTERN RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE AS
MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT OUT FROM TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIPLE
DAY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT WILL INITIALLY ALIGN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN A BIT OF FLUX ON POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LOCALLY...THERE REMAINS A FOCUS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE KICKS OUT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
KINEMATIC PROFILES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
- MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
- WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 TO 25KT TODAY
DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL REACH KLAF NEAR OR JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK THEN EXPAND SOUTHEAST IN A SCATTERED FASHION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY MINIMAL BUT
DO EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
THIN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH KLAF LIKELY TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT
20 TO 25KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO
NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN N/NE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...RYAN
DISCUSSION...RYAN
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