539
FXUS63 KIND 091647
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE MINOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP RISKS LIMITED
- RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO TROPICAL REMNANTS,
TOTAL AMOUNTS TRENDING DOWN
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA,
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. A WARM FRONT WAS FOUND OVER IA,
EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI. A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WAS RIDING
THE FRONT OVER EASTERN IA AND NRN IL. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, HOWEVER SOME
HIGH CI WAS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NW PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. DEW POINTS ACROSS INDIANA WERE IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
LOOK FOR MORNING SUN TO GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AS
LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST PUSH INTO INDIANA.
POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE LESS IMPACTED BY THIS CLOUD COVER. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS SUGGESTED TO WANE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID DAY
NEAR THE LAF OR OKK AREAS. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME LOWER POPS THERE.
FURTHERMORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
THE APPROACHING HURRICANE CLOUD SHIELD.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SATURATION TOWARDS 15KFT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, SO WILL BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS DEEP TODAY, BUT VERY DRY AIR
WITHIN IT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CRASHING DEW POINTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF SUB 20 PERCENT
RH. WITH THE SHALLOWER BOUNDARY LAYER, WIND GUSTS WILL BE LESS
FREQUENT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ON SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, RETURNING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER-
LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH CIRRUS FILTERING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL TROPICAL REMNANTS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LAYER WILL BOOST AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME, KEEPING POPS BELOW
10% THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND REMNANTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK REGARDING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ISAIAS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MIDWEST. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE PRIMARY MOISTURE PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN REGION. CONSEQUENTLY, LOWER-LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND DYNAMIC FORCING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA APPEAR WEAKER, RESULTING IN
LOWER TOTAL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS. TROUGH PASSAGE AND A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL CLEAR PRECIPITATION OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
MONDAY, FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITION IS INDICATED IN
MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,
DRIVING A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SWEEPING A ROBUST COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND DEEP THERMAL CONTRAST WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
DYNAMIC FORCING, INTRODUCING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
IMPACTS:
-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
GOES19 SHOWS MCS DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LAF AND IND TAF
AREAS, CAUSING VFR CIGS. MORE SUN WAS FOUND AT BMG AND HUF.
THE MCS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD TOPS WARM ALONG WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. HOWEVER. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...WHITE
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