671
FXUS63 KIND 061836
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASION SHOWERS/T-STORMS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALIZED PONDING/FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OCCUR
- AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN PLACE, PROVIDING WARM, SOUTHERLY GULF FLOW TO INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY. REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER MO/IL AND
INDIANA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST WITH WARMING TOPS. THIS
WAS PROVIDING A LARGE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS STILL WANING NEAR THE WABASH RIVER, BUT SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED OVER NE INDIANA, WHERE A BIT MORE SUN AND
HEATING WAS FOUND. ALOFT A BROAD, SHALLOW TROUGH WAS IN PLACE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THIS
SOMEWHAT. OVERALL, THE TREND FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE
DIMINISHING, LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH OUR AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OF FORCING SHOULD BE
WORKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT, BRINGING MORE MID CLOUD
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON SATURATED
BUT MOIST COLUMN IN PLACE OVER INDIANA WITH PWATS OVER 1.7 INCHES.
THUS ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS IN
THE AREA AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
PASSING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE
CAPE AND AND HIGH PWATS. HRRR SUGGESTS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN, THUS GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS, POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED, WITH THE BEST WINDOW FROM 21Z-01Z. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO KEEP MAINLY WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, RESULTING IN
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
INDIANA WILL AGAIN START THE DAY WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE. AGAIN, DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS, CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD BE LINGERING AS WELL AS ANY STORM
REMNANTS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IS
LOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE, BUT MUCH MORE MID LEVEL
DRYING IS IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
AGREEMENT TOWARD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE, THUS WILL TREND THE OVERALL DAY TOWARD DRY WEATHER
LATE IN THE DAY AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST BROAD, SHALLOW TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES POISED TO PASS ACROSS
INDIANA WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THESE WAVES IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAK PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON THESE DAYS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE WEEK SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES
PRESENT WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THUS THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE EXPECTED PASSING WAVES WILL NECESSITATE POPS
IN EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN THE WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
IMPACTS:
- MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
- MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, TOWARD 071200Z
DISCUSSION:
GOES19 CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECAYING CONVECTIVE MCS OVER IL AND
INDIANA WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE TAF SITES. RADAR
SHOWS DECAYING SHOWERS TRYING TO PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE WABASH.
THE DECAYING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING VFR CIGS. HRRR
SUGGESTS ENOUGH CLEARING COULD BE HAD FOR A POP UP TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS, THUS A VCTS
MENTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT, LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG AND/OR MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AROUND DIURNAL MINIMUMS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...PUMA
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