037
FXUS63 KIND 181946
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
UPDATE
THE SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE WERE BEING DRIVEN
MAINLY BY OLD OUTFLOWS FROM A PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER
NORTH.
DON'T EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT TO THE SOUTH.
WILL GO WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
QUIET CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
A BUILDING UPPER HIGH WILL KEEP THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAD TO LOWER THE INITIALIZATION'S
DEWPOINTS A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO THEM.
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
(EVEN THE GFS IS DRY!). EXPECTED SUNSHINE PLUS A WARM START TO THE
DAYS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER
90S, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 110. THUS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION DOWN INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
FEEL ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE AREA, BUT KEPT
THE INITIALIZATION'S SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTH.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGH END OF CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND STORMS MAY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SUNDAY. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING IN
EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THEN, BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE WARNING
FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
THE STIFLING HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING SHOVED SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR A MUCH MORE TOLERABLE AND
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE RAIN
AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TAKE
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH IT. THE CORE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REFOCUS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING
SOUTH...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON FORWARD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS
NEAR 60. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY WILL FEEL WONDERFUL.
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
NUDGE HIGH TEMPS BACK UP A BIT BUT HINTS OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD PULL
TEMPERATURES DOWN YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 181800Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WITH A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...MAY
SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FEW CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS LARGELY AT OR LESS
THAN 10KTS. COULD SEE FEW DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...
BUT EXPANDING CAPPING INVERSION WILL MAINLY LIMIT CU FORMATION.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
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