595
FXUS63 KIND 131427
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
UPDATE
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND ONLY INCREASE LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEADILY BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDED SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 07Z
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ABOUT AS GOOD OF A DAY AS YOU WILL SEE IN
MID SUMMER. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE
FILTERED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS LOW ALL DAY WITH DEWPOINTS
HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SUBSIDENCE INCREASING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WITH
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. JUST A SPECTACULAR DAY FOR MID JULY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT THE RECENT TRENDS OF GOING A
TOUCH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE. THE ONLY POINT
OF INTEREST COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HINTS
ALREADY ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION EXISTS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE DAY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN AN EASTWARD SHIFT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...EVENTUALLY FLATTENING AND
STRETCHING OUT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CAROLINAS BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE INITIAL PUSH EAST TO THE RIDGE WILL BRING HEIGHT RISES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOTED
SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN HELPING TO MITIGATE A MORE EXPANSIVE DIURNAL
CU FIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVEN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO ALTER ON WEDNESDAY SETTING THE STAGE
AS A PRELUDE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE INCREASING
THREAT FOR CONVECTION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL CAP PRESENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING BY LATE DAY WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING LIKELY BEING FACTORS IN EVENTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
MIGRATING INTO THE REGION BY THE EVENING. THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND THE SURFACE
LOW SET TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS ENCOMPASSING MOST IF NOT ALL OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. 30-40KT BL SHEAR WITH NOTABLE INCREASES IN HELICITY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH ORGANIZED ROBUST CONVECTION.
PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH A GROWING THREAT FOR WARM RAIN
PROCESSES TO DEVELOP WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR. HIGH
POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM. MID AND
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY AREAS
TO RETURN TO THE LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE 20C.
THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ASPECT MENTIONED ABOVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO OVERPERFORM
WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TONIGHT WILL RISE
STEADILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR WILL
HAVE A NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID FEEL TO IT ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO SHOW
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW'S PROGRESSION, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE PROGRESSIONS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SUPPLEMENTING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE HOT,
BUT EXCESSIVE HEAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 100S. MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING AN INCREASE IN
HEAT TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH
THE SIGNAL WEAKENING AS THE FORECAST NEARS. HOWEVER, A MORE
MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST RUNS WOULD
BE MORE CONDUCIVE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
AVIATION (DISCUSSION FOR THE 131500Z TAF UPDATE)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
UPPED WINDS A BIT BASED ON LATEST DATA. ADDED A FEW CUMULUS AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....UPDIKE
AVIATION...UPDIKE/50
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