813
FXUS63 KIND 100057
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
857 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MINOR/MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES SOUTH OF I-70
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL EXACERBATE OR PROLONG ONGOING FLOODING
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK, ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS
(AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES,
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 04Z IN INCREASING
MOIST/WAA PATTERN. SHALLOW NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY BENEATH EML
ALOFT NOTED ON 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL PRECLUDE ANY TS
CHANCES. THEREFORE, CONCUR WITH THE REMOVAL OF TS IN MOST RECENT
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
WIND GUSTS WERE KEPT AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 04Z GIVEN CONTINUED OBS
AIDED BY LOW LEVEL MIXING. HOWEVER INCREASING NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE EMERGENCE OF A DEEP
TROUGH, CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SW CONUS. FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE
ON THE DOWNWIND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARKS.
HERE IS CENTRAL INDIANA, STRONG S/SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAVE
PUSHED MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING OR
EXCEEDING 70 ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF LOW STRATUS
PUSHING IN ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS
HAS NOW REACHING SW INDIANA, AND IS SLOWLY CREEPING INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THAT SAID, THE NEAR SURFACE COLUMN HAS
STARTED TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS STRATUS LAYER
SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF MIXING AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE NE. FOR
NOW, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BROKEN SKY COVER TO REACH THE I-74
CORRIDOR, AND POINTS TO THE THE N/W OF INDIANAPOLIS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
NEXT, THIS DEEP WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EASTWARD, WITH A SPLIT
JET STREAK FORMING ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WITHIN THIS SPLIT JET STREAM, A MODEST SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH CONFLUENCE ZONES CREATING A
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW,
AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE TOO CAPPED AND
CLOUDY FOR BROAD SYNOPTIC RISING MOTION TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION.
AS FAR AS THE PARAMETER SPACING NEAR THIS W/E BOUNDARY, THERE IS A
CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO
SEE SOME CLEARING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING TO GET STRONG NEAR SURFACE
LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR. THAT SAID, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY,
AND ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MULTIPLE CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY.
THAT SAID, AS THESE CELLS PUSH EAST, RIGHT-TURNERS WILL LIKELY HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH STREAMWISE VORTICITY FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
THE LARGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS ON PLACEMENT, WITH THE BOUNDARY
VARYING BY 50-100 MILES AS OF THE 12Z SUITE, BUT WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWARD TREND. THE FURTHER SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY IS, THE GREATER
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. GIVEN THAT THESE
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK, THERE WILL BE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED.
OVERNIGHT, GREATER UPSTREAM INITIATION POST 00Z WILL LIKELY GROW
UPSCALE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. PWATS WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE ABNORMALLY HIGH, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
CURRENTLY THE EXPECTATION IS GENERALLY 1-2" ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA,
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE POCKETS OF HIGHER AND LOWER TOTALS
DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. THE GREATEST FLOODING CONCERN
TUESDAY NIGHT IS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE FFG IS
WILL BE LOW DUE TO HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK, AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
RAIN/CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF WEDNESDAY. SOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. ADVECTION WILL
TRY TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL TREND TO LOWER INSTABILITY DURING THE
MORNING, BUT THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A COLD POOL COULD
GET FAR ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN IT.
RAIN AND SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF SOME INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO BUILD DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF CONVECTION, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
IT PASSES, WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY FALLING 20 DEGREES IN 3 HOURS.
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE WILL BRING LOW POPS TO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FIRST SYSTEM, THEN READINGS WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. MONDAY,
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
IMPACTS:
- S-SW GUSTS TO 20-25KT AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
- MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IFR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
- IFR CEILINGS THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW EVENING
AT KIND AND KLAF.
DISCUSSION:
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS FROM 020-025 HAVE OVERSPREAD ALL BUT KIND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AT KIND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 02Z. OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND DEWPOINTS
SLOWLY RISE, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
07-10Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT COVERAGE AND
CHANCES ARE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUDING IN THE TAFS. S-SW WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
WITH GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 04Z.
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WITH S-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY MID
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIP/TS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TOMORROW, HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH
FOR KLAF AND KIND TOWARDS EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TS
AS WELL, BUT TOO LOW FOR EVEN ANY MENTION OF VCTS OR PROB30S.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CROSBIE
SHORT TERM...UPDIKE
LONG TERM...50/UPDIKE
AVIATION...CROSBIE
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