398
FXUS63 KIND 171835
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
135 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES LIKELY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON THURSDAY
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERS ON
TRACKING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS BEEN STREAMING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS SLOWLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE A BIT COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS SHOULD OVERSPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM THURSDAY WITH A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN A WORSE CASE SCENARIO, BUT WITH ONLY
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE AFTERMATH OF
THE EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING TOWARDS MID-
MORNING. STRONG WAA AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGHS. THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IN
INDIANAPOLIS IS 69F WHICH WOULD BREAK THE DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 66F
BACK IN 2017.
A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE MIXING UP TO AROUND
5KFT WILL ALLOW FOR RHS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT
RANGE WITH THE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. RECENT SNOWMELT IS ALLOWING FOR
MOIST FUELS WITH THE GREATER THREAT NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS SQUARELY ON THE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS A MORE ROBUST NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SOME FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT NORTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WINDOW WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY.
FROM A KINEMATIC STANDPOINT, THURSDAY'S ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80
KNOTS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 250 M2/S2. THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. A WEAK CAP IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ERODES THE EML COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE HODOGRAPH WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS THE EVENING WITH THE RESULTING HODOGRAPH BECOMING MORE
STRAIGHT. THUS, EXPECTATIONS ARE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE IF THE CAP BREAKS EARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
THE THREAT SHIFTS INTO MORE TOWARDS STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TOWARD THE
EVENING.
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON BOTH
STORM INITIATION TIME AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY. MOISTURE
QUALITY IS HIGH FOR MID-FEBRUARY WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY NEAR 60.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER WITH THE CAPE PROFILE FAIRLY
SKINNY, BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATICS, IT DOESN'T TAKE
MUCH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN FAILURE MODES
WILL BE A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED CAP AND A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED CAPE
PROFILE, BUT THOSE LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND, QUIET
CONDITIONS BUT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH BEYOND THE LOW 40S ON SATURDAY AND CLOSER TO 35
FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY APPROACH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE GOING LATER INTO THE WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER LIKELY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
IMPACTS:
-MVFR CIGS 03Z TO 15Z
-A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z TOWARDS LAF, MORE LIKELY 09Z TO 13Z
-LLWS 05Z TO 15Z
-SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AFTER 05Z
DISCUSSION:
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
UNTIL 09Z WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES OUTSIDE OF LAF. LOW STRATUS WILL
ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS, LLWS WILL BECOME A CONCERN EVEN AS
THE SURFACE GUSTS REMAIN IN THE 16-22KT RANGE. THESE GUSTS WILL
BECOME EVEN STRONGER AFTER DAYBREAK WITH A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF
30KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...WHITE
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