534
FXUS63 KIND 250355
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1055 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCHES NEAR I-70 AND POINTS SOUTH AND UP
TO AROUND 12 ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
FOR GREATER DETAIL ABOUT SHORT TERM THOUGHTS, SEE THE MESOSCALE
UPDATE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION.
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. REPORTS SO FAR
GENERALLY SHOW UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR. INCREASED
POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AND WILL CONTINUE THEM THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RADAR SHOWS SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA, WITH SOME OF THESE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
THINKING, WITH HIGHER TOTAL EXPECTED SOUTH.
WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR 20MPH. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME LOCALIZED
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL, BUT SO FAR THIS HASN'T HAD MUCH IMPACT ON
VISIBILITY. ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK AS COLD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
LETTING TREATMENTS TO WORK WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO LOWERED THEM
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS NEEDED. READINGS ARE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
IN THE SNOW, BUT READINGS MIGHT INCH UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH BROAD MID-
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE ANTECEDENT DRY
AIRMASS FROM A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR WISCONSIN HAS
LARGELY SATURATED AS LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL IN. THE DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THAT BEING SAID, LOWER AMOUNTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO WEAKER OVERALL FORCING.
CURRENT KIND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ONGOING
WHILE A STRONGER BAND IS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL IN.
THIS BAND COINCIDES WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR THE HEAVIER BAND TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/2
TO 1 MILE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL IN SUPPORTING THIS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE BAND ARE STILL SEEING LIGHT SNOWFALL WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD APPROACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE RATES SHOULD INCREASE, SLRS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS THERMAL PROFILES WARMS WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT AND ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW THE DGZ. THIS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER
HOUR, AT LEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNTIL STRONGER
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVES IN LATE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SYNOPTIC-SCALE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A
POSITIVELY TILTED AND INCREASINGLY ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PROPPED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. UNLIKE A CLASSIC WINTER CLOSED LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROWAL,
THIS STRETCHED CONFIGURATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ROBUST WARM CONVEYOR BELT THIS
FAR NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. INSTEAD, CENTRAL INDIANA WILL DEAL
WITH A LONG-DURATION OVERRUNNING EVENT WHERE MODEST BUT PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTERACTS WITH A SATURATED AND DEEP DGZ.
TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
INITIAL SATURATION OF THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING,
THOUGH A LINGERING DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING ARCTIC HIGH MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON, REACHING THE INDIANAPOLIS
METRO TOWARDS THE MID AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING LIGHT. FARTHER NORTH,
TOWARD LAFAYETTE AND KOKOMO, THE ONSET MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
EVENING TO POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE MOST INTENSE FORCING AND HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON A BRIEF LULL TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF FORCING HELPS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW
TOWARDS THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. BECAUSE THE TROUGH REMAINS
ELONGATED, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR OVER 24 HOURS, ONLY
GRADUALLY TAPERING TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM'S AXIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL END BY AROUND 7PM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND BY 10 PM IN
THE EAST.
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE
INDIANAPOLIS METRO, GENERALLY FALL WITHIN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
TERRE HAUTE TO BLOOMINGTON TO COLUMBUS LINE. WHILE HOURLY RATES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCH, THE SHEER LONGEVITY OF THE
EVENT WILL ALLOW FOR THESE IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. COMPACTION MAY HELP TO
LIMIT THE FINAL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY WITH A VERY FLUFFY SNOW. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-EFFICIENCY SNOW, AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIFT OCCURRING DIRECTLY WITHIN
THE DGZ. CONSEQUENTLY, SLRS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 12:1 AND
14:1 IN THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO 18:1 IN THE NORTH WHERE THE COLDER
AIR ALLOWS FOR MORE COLUMNS VS DENDRITES. ANOTHER CONCERN GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
WHICH MAY CAUSE DRIFTING WITH THE VERY POWDERY SNOW.
FORECAST CAVEATS AND UNCERTAINTY.
THE PRIMARY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
AIR INTRUDING INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND LIMITING
THE SNOWFALL. IF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS MORE
SUPPRESSED OR IF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES FURTHER
STRETCHING, THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE SNOW SHIELD COULD SHARPEN
WHICH HAS BEEN A GENERAL TREND IN SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOWER TOTALS FOR
THE LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE CORRIDOR, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3-4 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY, BECAUSE THE FORCING IS BROAD RATHER THAN CONCENTRATED,
ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD SHIFT
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION 30 TO 50 MILES IN EITHER
DIRECTION. THERE ARE LESS CAVEATS TO THE SOUTH OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COMPACTING LIMITING FINAL TOTALS.
TEMPERATURES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
OF THIS STORM. HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID-
TEENS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR
ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -10 RANGE AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE -10 THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN ABOVE -10 UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SO
FAR BELOW FREEZING, CHEMICAL TREATMENTS LIKE SALT WILL HAVE SEVERELY
LIMITED EFFECTIVENESS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
LINGERING SNOW FROM THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWS EACH NIGHT, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 0 DEGREES. HIGHER WINDS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY PLUMMET TO -10F TO -20F BUT COULD FEEL EVEN COLDER AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. WINDS APPEAR TO LET UP SOME THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT MINIMUM WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 SHOULD
PERSIST. DAYTIME HIGHS WON'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF EITHER AS HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. CONTINUE TO LIMIT
TIME OUTDOORS AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS.
OTHER THAN THE INITIAL LINGERING SNOW, PASSING SURFACE HIGHS WILL
HELP TO KEEP MUCH OF LONG TERM DRY. AN EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER
COULD COME MIDWEEK AS THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
- MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT
IFR BY OVERNIGHT
- MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT TIMES
DISCUSSION:
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT IFR OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 20KT
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
MESOSCALE...MELO
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...50
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page