188
FXUS63 KIND 301335
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY
- DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK; FIRST LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 30S POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
POLO STREAMING IN.
A DRY LAYER REMAINS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS GREATER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE
GREATER CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE NORTH GENERALLY KEEPS TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WARM WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH. OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING, COURTESY OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM, AFTER
WHICH A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO FAR MORE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED.
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING, BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER LAST NIGHT SUGGEST FAR LESS
COVERAGE AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DENSE FOG.
WILL CARRY A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH TODAY, AS
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE, SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, AND A WEAK JET MAX ALOFT SLIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH,
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW ABOUT 8-12KFT WILL RENDER
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY - BUT A FEW DROPS MAY
SURVIVE TO THE GROUND.
FOR THE MOST PART, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO AND PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL BE
HELD UP BOTH BY THIS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKENING OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW, AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH IS WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST. ALMOST WITHOUT
EXCEPTION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD, AS
THE BLEND ADAPTS TO RECENT MODEL RUNS DEPICTING STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES MAINLY
THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART, JUST SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A MODEST CONCERN
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM THANKS
IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE POLO REMNANTS.
RECENT DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HELP TO LIMIT
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS, HOWEVER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE AFOREMENTIONED TWO AREAS OF STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN AS MUCH
AS 15-20 DEGREES AND MIN TEMPERATURES DOWN A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES, A
BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND FAR MORE FALL-LIKE THAN CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THE AUTUMN SEASON. THE FIRST
LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO DROP INTO THE 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
BKN-OVC SKIES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH, BUT NOTHING
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO HAVE AN IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 7-9KT, BEFORE BACKING A BIT
TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MIDLEVELS TODAY, BUT
REMAINING WELL INTO THE VFR RANGE, BECOMING AROUND 8-12KFT TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
AVIATION...NIELD
DISCUSSION...NIELD
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