001
FXUS63 KIND 171449
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLDER TODAY. A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -10 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WAS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF THERE
AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS PRESSING EAST INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. 14Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA WILL PINWHEEL THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH LATE DAY AND WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THE PRESENCE OF PREDOMINANTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN
TANDEM WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS LARGELY PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
PERIODIC POCKETS OF FLURRIES. NUDGED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT FOR THE
AFTERNOON PEAKING AT 25-30MPH AT TIMES WHICH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS
CONFINED PREDOMINANTLY TO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE
FROM CURRENT READINGS AND AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT READINGS TO SLIDE BACKWARDS.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, PROVIDING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A
COLD FRONT ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WAS FOUND NEAR THE WABASH,
PUSHING EAST ACROSS INDIANA. STRONGER AND COLDER HIGH HIGH PRESSURE
WAS FOUND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SHOWED A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER IOWA, WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FALLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
WESTERN INDIANA, PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
IN THE 30S, BUT UPSTREAM COLDER VALUES IN THE 20 AND TEENS WERE
FOUND ACROSS IA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.
TODAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING,
LEADING TO ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. ALOFT, THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS,
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS MORE IN PLAY AND DRYING IS FOUND WITHIN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH
DIFFERENT COLUMN TODAY, WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND A LAYER OF SATURATION ALOFT TRAPPED BY AN EVEN HIGHER
INVERSION ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TODAY, BUT A STRAY FLURRY OR SNOWFLAKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH THOSE STRAY, NON-IMPACTFUL
SNOWFLAKES ALONG WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE OF
NOTE, THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TONIGHT...
QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
IN PLACE AS MODELS SUGGEST 850MB TEMPS OF -18C ARRIVING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO PULL
NORTHEAST TO QUEBEC AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS ALLOWS FOR RIDGING
TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DRYING WITHIN THE COLUMN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TREND TOWARD
A MAINLY DRY COLUMN BUT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION DOES APPEAR AND
LOWER CLOUDS DUE TO COOLING AND TRAPPING WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
HAVE EXITED WITH A BRIEF RETURN IN SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WITH
THE COOL ANTECEDENT AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHWEST, LITTLE WAA IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE NEXT SHOT OF
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THIS WILL BRING
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARDS
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS CLOSER TO ZERO TOWARDS THE OHIO
RIVER.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH ANOTHER
FRIGID NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOWS POTENTIAL DROP
CLOSE TO ZERO. LIGHTER WINDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE MORE EXTREME WIND
CHILLS, BUT WITH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH, THAT WILL STILL BRING WIND
CHILLS TO AROUND -10.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES WITH WEAK VORT MAXES TRAVELING ACROSS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARGINAL FOR SNOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY
DOES OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
QUICKLY FALLS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HOW IT MAY
INTERACT WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
IMPACTS:
- GENERALLY MVFR CIGS, SOME VFR AT TIMES
- WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS THROUGH 00Z
DISCUSSION:
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR. SPORADIC FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EVEN MORE ISOLATED TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 25KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. ANY GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARDS 23Z WITH WINDS IN THE 8-12KT RANGE TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...WHITE
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