723
FXUS63 KLMK 241944
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
344 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. VERY WARM ON THURSDAY, POSSIBLY 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.
* SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE, AND
LOW-LEVEL MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN
MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN THROUGH THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWER 60S NOW IN SOUTHERN KY.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET. WE'LL
HAVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW-
LEVEL SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE FIELD
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND THE
NEAR-SFC LAYER DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S,
BUT SOME OF OUR COOLEST LOW-LYING AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. 10-20 MPH SW WINDS AND WAA WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
===== WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ====
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER, WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ROBUST SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A 40+ KT WSW LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH THIS IDEA DOES NOT
HAVE A TON OF SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z CAMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
AS WELL AS THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS EARLY THURSDAY. HREF DATA AND FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK (<250
J/KG) AND ELEVATED, SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE DRY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAPPING SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
WARM, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
===== HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY =====
AREA-WIDE RAINFALL CHANCES PEAK ON FRIDAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH ANOTHER ANAFRONT SETUP. CONVECTION FIRING CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN/OH WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THIS SETUP, BUT WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH COOLER SHOWERY WEATHER IN ITS WAKE.
===== WEEKEND OUTLOOK =====
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST, ALLOWING SW RETURN FLOW TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH 70S BY MONDAY. WE'LL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN A WAA REGIME ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BKN
MID-LEVEL CEILING IS EXPECTED FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z WED), WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCT AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO VEER S/SW ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
AFTER AFTER 15Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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