942
FXUS63 KLMK 251908
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.
* A BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE SEEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
COOL NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD IN THE 70S. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AMPLE MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, DROPPING DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY. DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE
A DRY FALL DAY TODAY.
TONIGHT, MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT SOME COOLING OVER THESE AREAS.
EXPECTING TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S OVER THE WEST AND UPPER 40S
IN THE EAST. FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN LOW DEW POINTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST AND A STRONG UPPER LOW (NOR'EASTER) TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
DRY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED EACH AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS DRY AIR AND AMPLE MIXING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TUESDAY - FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO WILL DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS MOVING
SEPARATELY, WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH BY THURSDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL STALL AT THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WORKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. GIVEN
THESE FEATURES, PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND STALL AS THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS. LOOKING INTO
ENSEMBLES, LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE BETWEEN 0.5-2.0 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO
OPEN UP AND EVENTUALLY HEAD EASTWARD. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR JUST AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. AS THAT SYSTEM HEADS EAST, A
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE AND A BLAST OF COLD AIR MAY
INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY ON/AFTER 10/6 OR SO AND LINGER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY TO RELAX A BIT. HOWEVER,
WE'LL SEE A WEST PACIFIC TYPHOON (SURIGAE) RECURVE AND MERGE INTO
THE PACIFIC JET AS WE CROSS INTO OCTOBER. THIS IS LIKELY TO
PERTURB THE JET A BIT AND LEAD TO A STRONGER WEST COAST RIDGE AND
DEEPER EASTERN US TROUGH WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ARRIVING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. LONGER RANGE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS
GOING INTO MID-OCTOBER FEATURE A -AO/-NAO/+PNA PATTERN WITH THE EPO
FLIPPING FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE AROUND MID-MONTH. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP/CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM MID-OCTOBER ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL
HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-
20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, LESSENING AND BECOMING NEAR
CALM IN SOME PLACES LIKE RGA OVERNIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIX AWAY
AND CLEAR SKIES WITH AN ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW/MJ
AVIATION...BKF
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