160
FXUS63 KLMK 190801
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
401 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
* WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI HAS
LARGELY UNDERACHIEVED. EXPECT MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO EITHER
DISSIPATE OR PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL RATCHET DOWN THE NEAR-TERM POPS AND LIMIT MORNING RAIN
CHANCES TO BOWLING GREEN AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST. AFTERNOON STORMS
ARE STILL ON THE TABLE AS THIS WEAKENING COMPLEX WILL LIKELY PUT OUT
A BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO FOCUS NEW
DEVELOPMENT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT WITH
40KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WE COULD END UP WITH A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS PUTTING OUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM FOR OUR NEXT WAVE, SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, AND PUSH THROUGH MISSOURI
THIS EVENING. IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A MCS WILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, BRINGING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING GIVEN THE
TIMING, SO SVR POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THAT WAVE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAY MORNING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SPC DAY 2
ENHANCED HAS EXPANDED NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MATCHES
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SURGE. SFC WINDS ARE VEERED
SO LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTI-CELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS WE
WOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE OR BOWING SEGMENTS,
SHIFTING THE BALANCE TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY, ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH
OF THE MAIN SVR THREAT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS IN KENTUCKY COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF IT FALLS QUICKLY ENOUGH. IT'S STILL
POSSIBLE THAT THE MORNING WAVE OF STORMS COULD PERSIST LONGER THAN
FORECAST, WHICH WOULD LIMIT OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WOULD REMAIN IN PLAY.
STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY, AS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
FLOODING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND USHERING IN A
COOLER AIRMASS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION,
BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MID-UPPER 70S OVER OUR NORTH AND LOWER 80S
OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S.
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS POSSIBLY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO THE VERY LOW 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK OVER THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST US WHICH WILL KEEP THE OHIO
VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW LATE MAY NORMALS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMING
THROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW MAY BRING EPISODIC BOUTS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT SDF AND LEX.
CIRRUS CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A MID-LEVEL CIG AROUND
MIDDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SETTLING INTO A ENE DIRECTION. BWG
WILL INITIALIZE WITH CIRRUS BUT WE'LL CARRY A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON. MVFR VIS IS LIKELY
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN JUST VFR.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...RAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page