084
FXUS63 KLMK 152339
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
739 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONGOING
ABNORMALLY DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS BEING
SQUEEZED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ND/MN AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS. A LONG SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, IF ANY,
IS WEAK ACROSS A MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CENTRAL KY
AND SOUTHERN IN.
A HEALTHY SCT CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN LIMITED BY DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AND WE'RE JUST NOT SEEING
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION, EITHER,
WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WELL OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH PORTIONS
OF MO, IA, AND WI. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH A FEW
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LIKEWISE, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE WE'LL
HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
15% AT THIS TIME, SO CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
STREAMING WEST FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. IT'LL BE MILD,
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE
SCT-BKN CIRRUS STREAM EAST TO WEST ON TUESDAY, WHICH MAY HAVE A
SMALL IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS. BUT EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 86-91 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
===== TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT =====
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
WITH TIME. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH A PORTION OF THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVELS, AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT WITH PW DIPPING BELOW
1.0 INCH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, WITH MORNING LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90, WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY.
===== FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY =====
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL EVENTUALLY BRING US SOME LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
90S.
WE SHOULD SEE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND CANADA
THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE'LL SEE AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
VIA S/SW FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILED
TIMING/AMOUNTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
AN ALREADY DIMINISHING HIGH BASED CUMULUS FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED UPPER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW, ALONG WITH SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NE ON TUESDAY. VFR PREVAILS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
CYCLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ029>031.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076-083-084-
089.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
INZ077>079-090>092.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS
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