607
FXUS63 KLMK 051901
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CONTINUED HOT AND DRY INTO SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA.
* HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN EARNEST MONDAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL START TO
GET PINCHED IN BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS. AS THE
SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST, THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME EVEN AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL SLIGHTLY, SO TEMPS WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE, PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER AT NIGHT AND A DEGREE
COOLER BY DAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP JUST A BIT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK TOOL SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR HEAT SENSITIVE GROUPS WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
A SELECT FEW WILL GET AT LEAST TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL POP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A POP-UP STORM WILL BE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEST OF I-65. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STILL REMAIN DRY. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE,
ALONG WITH BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TYPICAL MIDSUMMER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO INDIANA, ONLY TO GET HUNG UP AND LINGER NEARBY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE BAND OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO SETTLE CLOSER TO US, ALLOWING MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT
INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME
THESE IMPULSES, BUT IN THIS AIR MASS CONVECTION IS A GOOD ENOUGH BET
THAT WE WILL CARRY HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS, KEYING ON THE AFTERNOONS
AS THE MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS, TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY
AND SOLIDLY ABOVE CLIMO AT NIGHT. WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS AT A TIME, NONE OF THE DAYS ACTUALLY
LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT, BUT ANY LOCATION COULD PICK UP A SHOWER OR
STORM ON ANY DAY. SHEAR IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT BUT PULSE STORM HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, INCLUDING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND A SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET, AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK AT BWG AND RGA, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SW WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS
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