416
FXUS63 KLMK 300502
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IN
SPOTS.
* MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
MAINLY CONFINED TO AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A DIURNAL CU FIELD IN FULL SWING. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. A BIT OF HAZE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS EVENING.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WHILE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST.
FOR THURSDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. WE'LL SEE NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 82-87 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION
WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
FOR FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, LIKELY
TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
REMAINS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MAY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE, A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER
WAVE.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS LIKELY FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN A WARM
ADVECTION/NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET REGIME. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON
THE LONGEVITY OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION AND ITS POTENTIAL TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY/DIURNAL HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN PLACES THAT HEATING DOES
OCCUR, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S WHICH WILL BE AMPLE FOR
CONVECTION. MODEL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS AN EMERGING SIGNAL THAT SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND
ENHANCEMENT COULD DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOULD THIS HIGHER SHEAR COME TO FRUITION, ALONG WITH MORE
ROBUST HEATING, A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE TABLE. BASED
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, A FAIRLY
HIGH SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SO HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT.
BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH ON OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS RATHER LIKELY HERE ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S.
MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, STRONGER FLOW IN THE WESTERLIES WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHILE MORE
PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE WESTERN US. ACROSS THE
EASTERN US, THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT A BAGGY TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SE US.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO, IT SEEMS THAT SHOWERY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MID-
UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASING TO 5-7 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 5 KFT ARE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING, BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERALL. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CUMULUS LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page