137  
FXUS63 KLMK 200524  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
124 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING  
WORK WEEK.  
 
* WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE AREA WITH  
CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING  
TO DEVELOP A NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.  
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF  
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES  
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE POST FRONTAL  
REGIME, A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD  
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR AS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO  
FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. CLEARING SKIES WERE  
NOTED IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-165 CORRIDOR.  
 
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD COVERED AREAS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S THIS  
AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST OUT IN THE CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAD  
RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN  
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH SUNSET, AND THEN WINDS WILL REALLY SLACKEN OFF. AS SKIES  
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, SOME RECOVERY OF  
TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE PLACE IN AREAS WEST OF I-65. WHILE THIS  
REGION IS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 50S, A REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER  
50S IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET.  
 
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO  
THE REGION FROM THE WEST ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR RATHER QUICKLY FROM  
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARD  
SUNSET AND THEN BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW-LYING AREAS, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN  
CORRIDORS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE  
COLDEST VALLEYS.  
 
FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE  
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE  
MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MAY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER  
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
IN COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. AHEAD OF  
THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH  
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A BIT MORE ELEVATED. LOWS LOOK TO  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH  
THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. OVERALL, TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK  
COOL AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE  
OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE DELAYED AND WINDS LOOK TO  
STAY UP A BIT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S AND LOWER 40S.  
 
STEADY COLD ADVECTION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING OUR FIRST SURGE OF CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH A  
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER  
50S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.  
SOUTHERN KY MAY REMAIN A BIT WARMER WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. CLEAR  
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD  
ALLOW A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO OCCUR. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS AND  
THE TYPICAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER  
30S WITH THE RIDGES AND URBAN AREAS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.  
AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND A FROST ADVISORY  
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED HERE.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL REMAIN IN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH  
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE  
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING NIGHT WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND EVEN AN LIGHT FREEZE.  
THE VALLEYS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP  
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH THE RIDGES/URBAN AREAS REMAINING IN THE  
LOWER 40S. SOME OF OUR MORE DEEP/PROTECTED AREAS HERE COULD GET  
INTO THE LOWER 30S, SO ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE HEADLINE  
MAY BE REQUIRED.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
MOVING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
EASTERN US WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE  
MOVES OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS  
FEATURE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN ROLL  
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO US FOR  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN  
THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
THROUGH MID-MORNING, LIGHT SW WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TODAY, WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE  
DURING PEAK MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT  
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LEVEL DECK EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.  
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LLJ WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LLWS, WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM SSE TO SW TOWARD THE END OF THE  
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SRW  
SHORT TERM...MJ  
LONG TERM...MJ  
AVIATION...CSG  
 
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