603
FXUS63 KLMK 260653
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
253 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM
AFTERNOONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.
* THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL HALLOWEEN WEEKEND, WITH MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-
80%) IN DRY WEATHER ON HALLOWEEN. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS IN
EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
IT IS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TYPICAL
URBAN/RURAL AND RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN TEMPERATURES ARE OBSERVED AT
OBS SITES ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER,
THESE SHOULDN'T AFFECT COOLING MUCH IF AT ALL THROUGH SUNRISE. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
DEEP RIVER VALLEYS, AS WELL AS OTHER SHELTERED RURAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S ON THE RIDGELINES AND IN CITY
CENTERS.
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, A FAIRLY STABLE AND
PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISS. VALLEY AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY UP INTO THE NORTHEAST US WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY
INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST 20K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO
THE NW OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE WITH IT, AND SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SW BREEZE AS IT PASSES. BEHIND THIS WAVE, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US LATE WEEK BEFORE
ADDITIONAL TROUGHS APPROACH THE REGION HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK, THOUGH WE MAY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. IN GENERAL, WE'LL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS MOST OF THE
WEEK, TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS MID-WEEK THANKS TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.
THE CONTINUED ABSENCE OF RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE PREVALENT DRY WEATHER WOULD CAUSE US TO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES (E.G., FUELS, WINDS, RH) WERE ALSO
FAVORABLE. FORTUNATELY, WE'VE SEEN GOOD NIGHTTIME RECOVERY OF RH
VALUES DURING THIS DRY STRETCH, WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT CURING OF
SMALLER FUELS SO FAR. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT, AND
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS, WITH
THE MINOR EXCEPTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR WED/THURS. SO FOR THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE, THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA IS MODEST, BUT IS
WORTH MONITORING AS WE HEAD INTO NOVEMBER.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A BETTER FETCH OF
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO GET SHEARED APART BY A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
AS A RESULT, THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER BY
THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LIMITING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, ABOUT 80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE EVENING ON SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY ABOUT 30% OF
MEMBERS FEATURE RAIN TOTALS OVER 0.25" FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
RESOLVE WHAT WILL BE A FAIRLY COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. SOME
SOLUTIONS FEATURE MORE PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL/POLAR STREAM
WAVES, LEADING TO A STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE 11/2-4 TIME PERIOD. ON
THE OTHER HAND, OTHER SOLUTIONS FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE
SPLIT/DISJOINTED FLOW PATTERN, RESULTING IN A SUCCESSION OF WEAKER
SYSTEMS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW, ASIDE FROM THE GENERAL
TREND TOWARD A MORE DYNAMIC SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE ONLY CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG MAINLY AT HNB AND BWG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SINCE
FORECAST LOWS AT BWG WERE RIGHT AT CROSSOVER TEMPS, DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND ADD TEMPO FOG/MIST FOR A FEW HOURS. SDF/LEX/RGA ARE ON
TRACK TO REMAIN ABOVE CROSSOVER TEMPS, SO WE'LL CONTINUE WITH NO FOG
IN THE FORECAST AT THOSE SITES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 5 KT
OR LESS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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