714
FXUS63 KLMK 280035
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..UPATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -11
EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
* A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MAY BRING SOME
SNOW FLURRIES TO THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS EVENING.
* LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
AFTER A BITTER COLD START THIS MORNING, TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
20S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THESE TEMPS, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING, ARE A NICE CHANGE COMPARED TO THE FRIGID TEMPS
WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY,
AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A MOSITURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW-END CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS TONIGHT, THOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE DGZ, AND DRY AIR
BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THIS CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS,
IT WON'T BE TOO DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW. THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR BY RESTRICTING
SNOW AND QPF AMOUNTS.
VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. BETTER SKY COVER
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT
IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND SUB-ZERO TEMPS NORTH OF THE KY
PKWYS AS A RESULT. WIND CHILLS IN THIS AREA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ZERO, SO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
FOR TOMORROW, SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
COVER. CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE'LL START OFF THE PERIOD DRY ON THURSDAY, BUT WE'LL HAVE
AT LEAST A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE SWINGING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THURSDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT SATURATION FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. A MAJORITY OF
LREF MEMBERS ALSO POINT TO THE IDEA OF VERY LIGHT QPF. LIFT IS WEAK,
BUT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF COULD YIELD A DUSTING OF LIGHT, FLUFFY
SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A PIECE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/PV
ANOMALY WILL SPLIT OFF AND ROTATE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STRONG ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST,
BRINGING A FRIGID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S,
AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET TO AROUND ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND -15 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES OVERHEAD. BUT IT
APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG EAST COAST STORM. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE TEENS, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE'LL SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BY SUNDAY AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S. A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
IMPACTS:
- POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE MORNING
- RGA KEEPS MVFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
A STREAK OF STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS FROM AROUND RGA BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM BWG. OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN WITH
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH. A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS DROPPING NORTHWARD AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW CLOUDS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND
WHILE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE, THE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG THAT COULD IMPACT SOME OF OUR TERMINAL SITES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ030>037-
041>043-049.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN
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