476
FXUS63 KLMK 192335
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
..STRONG STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A SFC COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING
ILLINOIS JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 57 CORRIDOR. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF ANY CONVECTION, AND THAT IS MADE
EVEN MORE DIFFICULT BY THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE AFFECTED WEST-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LIMITING
INSTABILITY.
EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO INITIALIZE ONGOING
CONVECTION, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST IS LOW. WE
ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IF THE CLEARING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE
OVER FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPAND EASTWARD
IN TIME, THAT COULD GENERATE AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, AND
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BELIEVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
AND COULD CLIP A FEW OF OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS WILL CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING SHOULD
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE, SO POPS WILL BE LOWER SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER IN STORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID/LATE MAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND IS
SECURELY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S IN INDIANA TO THE LOW 80S
CLOSER TO TENNESSEE.
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE INCHES EAST AS A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS BEHIND THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY
BOWS FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE HOOSIER STATE WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOISTURE
FEED TO THE FRONT DRIES AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT FADES.
SOUTHERN INDIANA COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THAT COULD
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY, BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL TREND DRIER IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
CLOUDS OVERHEAD TO MOST EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA.
THIS WON'T LIMIT TEMPERATURES AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION FROM A
STIFF SOUTH WIND WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S.
THE PARKED HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO SHIELD MOISTURE FROM
GETTING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE CWA. MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE THE FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH.
THURSDAY COULD BRING OUR MOST NORTHERN AREAS IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ON SATURDAY
ACCORDING TO GFS, BUT THE EURO KEEPS US MUCH DRIER. BELIEVING THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE SATURATED THAN REALITY LATELY. BELIEVE DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING. HNB/BWG HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT VCTS. THINK
THAT CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SDF SO WENT WITH
VCSH. LEX IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING -SHRA AND MAY SEE ANOTHER LATE
EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY T-STORM OR HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER
5Z, ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TURNING SWW
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY W
TOMORROW BETWEEN 8-12 KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...AMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page