390
FXUS63 KLMK 250143
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
943 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FIRE OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING.
* A FEW SHOWERS/A STORM WILL LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KY
PARKWAYS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
* SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS TRENDED TO JUST WEST OF THE AREA,
BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2AM - 5AM TOMORROW. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AT THIS HOUR, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED CU FIELD HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LIMITED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, HITTING
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER LARGELY KEEPING A LID ON DEEP,
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE GROWTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
WHERE THE RICHER NEAR-SFC MOISTURE RESIDES. IN SPITE OF THE MEAGER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARD
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE LIMITED OVERALL
FORCING, WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET, THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE NO RAIN (AND THOSE WHICH DO SEE
A SHOWER SHOULD GENERALLY RECEIVE LESS THAN 0.25"), 6-HR HREF LPMM
DATA SHOWS NARROW SWATHS OF HIGH-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1-
1.5" WHERE ANY TRAINING OF HEAVIER STORMS OCCURS. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PARTICULARLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT...
A GENERAL DWINDLING OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9
PM AND MIDNIGHT AS LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WEAKEN. HOWEVER, AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
LINGER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS KY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE GREATEST PRCOULDOBABILITIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE KY PARKWAYS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 0.25" OF RAIN OR LESS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER CHANCES,
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. HREF PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 1 MILE VSBYS
RANGE FROM 20-50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SO THAT'S SOMETHING
WE'LL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC "COLD" FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE FRONT MOST APPARENT AS A
WIND SHIFT AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT. IN THE VICINITY OF THIS GRADIENT
AND POINTS SOUTH, LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LLVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MIX UP
INTO A STRATOCU LAYER BY MIDDAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, LLVL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, TO DEVELOP. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS (20-40%) WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS.
POINTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST COULD SEE SCATTERED CU DEVELOP, BUT
DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE N/NE, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS KY FROM THE N/NE. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS DECK MAY TRY TO PUSH
INTO THE BLUEGRASS FROM OHIO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS
LIGHT COOLER/DRIER FLOW, LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 40S
AND LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US SHOULD LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS SHOULD ALLOW UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE SFC COLD FRONT COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS HEIGHTS RISE. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
LIGHT E/NE WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ALLUDED TO ABOVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LEADING THE SFC CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COMPACT NATURE OF THE
UPPER WAVE, IT WILL RACE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY,
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CONVERGENCE IN MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A SLOWER AND GENERALLY
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST IMPACT OF THIS WILL
BE TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AS IT IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY THANKS TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY. RECENT TRENDS IN
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE WITH A SLOWER/MORE NW EVOLUTION FAVORS STORM
INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FARTHER
TO THE NW THAN THE THINKING A FEW DAYS AGO. AS WE GO LATER INTO
MONDAY EVENING, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NW. WITH THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS NOW LIFTING FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE/QLCS,
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FAST PROGRESSION OFF TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT LOWER THAN AREAS TO OUR WEST, IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA, AND IF IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN SEVERE-LEVEL CONVECTION.
WHILE IT IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR TO PREDICT EXACT THREAT LEVELS
AND TYPES THIS FAR OUT, GIVEN THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND GREATER
REMOVAL FROM STRONGER FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, THERE SHOULD BE
A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST, AS
INDICATED BY THE SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK AND MOST AI/MACHINE-LEARNING
GUIDANCE. ALSO, GIVEN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF A COLD POOL-
DOMINANT/LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA,
WOULD EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ACROSS OUR
AREA. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, IT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT, AND SHIFTS
IN GUIDANCE COULD BRING THE HIGHER-END POTENTIAL CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
IN AND CENTRAL KY.
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA SHOULD BEGIN TO
EJECT EAST, WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE MORE
NORTHERLY TREND IN THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE CONUS,
BRINGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO THE REGION. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE FAVORED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR
THE WARM, UNSTABLE SECTOR TO CREEP CLOSER TO KY/IN. MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL WELL, WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS INTO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM, A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
FAVORED AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE SIGNALS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. FORTUNATELY, BY THIS
POINT IN THE WEEK, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM TRACK WILL BE
SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT THIS WILL BE AN
OVERRUNNING/STABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT. TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO
CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND AS UPPER TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA CURRENTLY. BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LOWERED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN WILL START TO
MOVE OUT OF HNB/SDF/BWG BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. LEX AND RGA WILL HOLD
ON TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO
MVFR CEILINGS. LEX/RGA/BWG CAN EXPECT TO SEE SUB 3K FT CEILING BY
07Z, WHILE HNB AND SDF SHOULD REMAIN SCT/FEW025. ALSO WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL START TO TAKE A SHIFT TONIGHT AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW. BY 18Z TOMORROW SKIES WILL START
TO PARTIALLY CLEAR NW TO SE OVER THE REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CAL
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CAL
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