167
FXUS63 KLMK 311836
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S THROUGH SATURDAY.
* WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY, THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, WITH A FEW STRONGER CORES POSSIBLY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
* SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT DROPS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-
70S TO THE LOW 80S AS OF 18Z. A STRATOCU FIELD WHICH DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO THIN OUT AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MIXES WITH AMPLE NEAR-SFC MOISTURE. PERSISTENT SW FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST TO THE NW OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WARM AND DRY AIR BETWEEN 5-15K FT AGL IS CAPPING
CONVECTION, AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN A BAND OF ENHANCED WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP TO FIRE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES, WITH STORMS GRADUALLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS SHOULD HELP A COLD FRONT TO SINK TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN MSLP
FIELDS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT NEAR I-70 BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AS THE
FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH, LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE NEAR-SFC MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW-TO-
MID 60S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST
TOMORROW IS HOW MUCH FORCING AND LIFT THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AND IF IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MARGINALLY STRONGER
FORCING WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT'S POSITION, WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND
NORTHERN KY, TAPERING OFF THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TOMORROW AND AROUND
1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED, INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL FOR STORMS.
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SW WIND PROFILES, WITH
GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED -- FAIRLY MODEST
VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE EJECTING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT OVERALL FORCING. IF ANY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN DEVELOP, SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DWINDLES AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
TRACKING NE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SSW. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE (80-90%) THAT WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT,
AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, THE FORECAST AREA CAN
EXPECTED A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITING INSTABILITY FACTORS. LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE (50-70%)
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST DEVELOPS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A LINEAR SYSTEM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. BEST
CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING AN INCH (60-75%) OF RAIN IS IN THE SOUTHERN
INDIANA COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 80S
BEFORE THEY TAKE A SIGNIFICANT DROP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE HIGH
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES TO START THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CU FIELD HAS MIXED ABOVE THE MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY SW WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH
22-23Z. THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY, WITH CONTINUED
S/SW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE NEAR-
SFC INVERSION SETS UP TONIGHT, MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES, WITH AROUND 35 KT OF SW WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 2-3K FT AGL.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY
THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT HNB, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CSG
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