675
FXUS63 KLMK 181034
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
UPDATED AT 305 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
PERSISTENCE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS STILL NOT
BEING REPRESENTED WELL BY GFS. EURO-BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GOING
FOR 91, WHICH IS BETTER. SEE NO REASON WHY WE SHOULDN'T AT LEAST
MATCH WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AS WE HAVE SIMILAR FEATURES
SYNOPTICALLY. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGE COULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR LAKE
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES, WHERE A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME
OROGRAPHIC AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY DOWN THERE.
TONIGHT, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WE HAVEN'T HAD MUCH LUCK THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
GENERATING THIS LAYER, BUT WILL TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING BY
DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPDATED AT 215 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY THRU SUNDAY
..WEAKENING COLD FRONT FOR 1ST DAY OF FALL
WELL...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ONCE AGAIN THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WITHER GRASSES AND HARDEN THE
GROUND. TEMPS WILL OVERACHIEVE DUE TO THE DRY GROUND. THE GFS RAW
NUMBER AND MOS ARE WAY WAY TOO LOW (HAVE BEEN FOR DAYS)
THIS PERSISTENT STUBBORN RIDGE WILL DEFLECT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE
NW KEEPING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT AFTERNOON
APEXES TO GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY. ON THU
AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE
TROPICAL LEFT OVER FROM IMELDA ON BACK SIDE OF SFC RIDGE, SO WILL
ONLY GO UPPER 80S. THE MAV HAS 81 FOR SDF FRI AND 79 FOR LEX.
ON THU THERE IS A SUBTLE HINT OF VERY VERY ISOLATED LATE DAY POP-UP
BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING AT 800 MB AND UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. FOR
NOW <10 % POPS.
AS HUMBERTO HEADS PASSED BERMUDA A 1028 MB HIGH FROM QUEBEC WILL
SLIDE AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND SET UP OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA AND WARM TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH 588-590 M OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERACHIEVE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL POP COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE WETTEST, BUT FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE TO SLGT CHC POPS.
WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY GET UP TO 20 MPH GUSTS WITH SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT AND HIGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK WILL COME DOWN SOME, THOUGH
WE'RE TALKING HIGHS IN THE 80S VS 90S. STILL ABOVE NORMAL!
THE DEEP EXTENDED HAS BEEN FLIPPING AND FLOPPING WITH GFS AND ECM.
BOTH MODELS TAKE POTENT UPPER LOW FROM OLYMPIC MTNS AND CRATER LAKE
NP DOWN INTO THE DESERT SW. THEN THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH A HAVE A
HIGH SPECTRUM WIDTH OF SPREAD VARIABILITY. CLIMATE NORMAL HIGHS DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S NEXT WEEK BUT IT APPEARS WE ILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SOME TIME.
WEATHER TIDBIT...
SEP 22, 1869...PROFESSOR CLEVELAND ABBE BEGAN FORECASTING WEATHER
IN CINCINNATI. PROF ABBE WAS ONE OF OUR NATION'S PIONEER WEATHER
FORECASTERS AND OBSERVERS. THATS 150 YEARS AGO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 635 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
DRY PATTERN HOLDING IN PLACE. SEEING VERY FEW PATCHES OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LEX AND NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. WITH
THIS SET OF TAFS WILL REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR BWG, BUT KEPT IT IN AT
HNB, WHERE HUMIDITY EARLY THIS MORNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SEE A BRIEF
DROP. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND TODAY, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JDG
AVIATION...RJS
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