630
FXUS63 KLMK 072319
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
..UPDATED FORECAST AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
POP GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN IN AND
SOUTHERN KY FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT, BUT WANDERING BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER STORMS AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY FROM PEAK HEATING STILL CAN
BRING SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION IN BETWEEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
..ANOTHER HOT/MUGGY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR 100
..SCATTERED PM STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING/WIND
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED RIGHT ON CUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
WITH SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG, DCAPE OF 800-1000 J/KG, AND PWAT OF
1.8", LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
BREEZE IN A FAIRLY FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN IN THE HUMID, STAGNANT AIR MASS.
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS PEAKING NEAR 100 AS THE STUBBORN SUMMERTIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AGAIN IT'S DIFFICULT TO FIND A SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER, SO STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON VARIOUS SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ACTUALLY SHOW JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
THE LONG TERM BEGINS UNIMPRESSIVE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO GATHER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, AND WITH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY REMAINING WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WITH NO
STEERING FLOW ALOFT, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 90S WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WITH NO STEERING
WINDS, STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THIS KEEPS ISOLATED FLOODING
RISKS IN THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO CHANGE
OVER THE MIDWEST AS A TROUGH ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE POOL OF MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY
EVENING, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW AN INCH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH, EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITHIN THE TROUGH'S NORTHWEST FLOW, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FORM. THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SET UP NEAR WEST VIRGINIA. THIS AREA OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND AND GIVE THE EASTERN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS SO FAR THIS EVENING, BUT FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS COULD BE NEAR HNB/BWG.
HAVE VICINITY WORDING AT THOSE SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS DOWN THIS PERIOD...ASIDE
FROM WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL. SOME
GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR FAIRLY LOW VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK AT EACH OF THE
SITES, BUT WE HAVE MIXED OUT SOME DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. IN
DEFERENCE TO SOME OF THOSE MODELS, HAVE PUT IN SOME LOWER VSBY
AROUND DAYBREAK.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RJS
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