909
FXUS63 KLMK 261040
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
* TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE'LL REMAIN DRY AGAIN
TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKYCOVER AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.
WE'LL GET SLIGHTLY MORE WARM RETURN FLOW TODAY, RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAA PATTERN, RESULTING IN TEMPS TO END UP BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP OUR HEAT INDICES IN CHECK THOUGH.
BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US, WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN. SPC CLIPS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN IN
THEIR D1 MARGINAL RISK, BUT BELIEVE THIS IS MAINLY BUFFERING FOR THE
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS IL/IN. WE'LL LACK SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR, BUT COULD
HAVE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. DCAPE
VALUES COULD END UP BEING HIGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT,
BUT THE LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED. HI-
RES GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES FAIRLY WELL ON STORMS STRUGGLING TO GET
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS THE RUN INTO WANING INSTABILITY
LATER INTO THE NIGHT AND WEAK SHEAR, SO WE COULD END UP SEEING A
LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z WITH THE FRONT STILL SITUATED
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW, BUT
COULD SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE
TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE SOME CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY BEING EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
===== DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND =====
WE'LL BE IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BY FRIDAY MORNING, SO WE CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO TAKE OVER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE ONE LAST LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS. A SECONDARY MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME DURING FRIDAY, BUT LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE WILL BE FELT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AND SUNNY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS CREEPING UP TO NEAR 90F OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
===== POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS IN THE 90S NEXT WEEK =====
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED BY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST, PLACING OUR AREA DEEP WITHIN
THE WARMER RETURN FLOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL SEE TEMPS
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NBM TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID-90S NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW
GIVEN THE WARM BIAS OF THE NBM. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPS IN THE 90S, SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S COULD YIELD HEAT
INDICES MAINLY BELOW 100. ADDITIONALLY, THE 100-MEMBER GRAND
ENSEMBLE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH HEAT INDICES NEXT WEEK, WITH JUST
A 25% CHANCE OR LESS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F. WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT WE COULD SEE THESE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS WE GET INTO BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT, BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. AN ISOLATED SHRA CHANCE IS POSSIBLE AT HNB BETWEEN 00-06Z
TONIGHT. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING PRECIP MENTION AT SDF
AND BWG FOR TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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