289
FXUS63 KLMK 221837
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
237 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH 30-40% OF RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-75 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER TOMORROW IN THE 60S-70S, THOUGH
SHOULD CLOUD COVER BREAK UP, LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
BORDER.
* CRISP/COOL MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNINGS
WHERE LOWS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
===== THIS EVENING - WEDNESDAY NIGHT =====
PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NE AT THE SURFACE TO JUST
ABOVE THE 925MB LAYER HAS REALLY SOCKED MOISTURE IN OVER KY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM OF THIS NE FLOW, ALL OTHER AREAS ARE ALSO SOCKED INTO LOW
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WHILE
THIS CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING AWAY IN FAR SE KY, SHORT-RANGE
MODELING HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THIS CLOUD
DECK. THIS HAS YET TO BE REALIZED AND THIS SIMULATED DISSIPATION IS
DELAYED EACH MODEL UPDATE. AS A RESULT, HIGHS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
GREATLY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO AND ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND
THESE COMMUNITIES SHOULD EXPECT 60S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM REMNANT OVERNIGHT STORMS HELPING TO REDUCE MIXING WITHIN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KY, WITH ENOUGH THINNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S, WITH ISOLATED UPPER 70S IN CLINTON AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES AS THEY'VE MANAGED TO CLEAR IN SOME PLACES.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED NE FLOW FROM A PARENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP US LOCKED INTO A COOL WEATHER PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT, ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND AN
INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS BY THE EARLY MORNING. LOWS WON'T BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S, COOLEST
AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENS,
OVERCAST SKIES LINGER WITH SHOWERS FORMING BY LATE MORNING IN EAST
KY. THESE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOVING WEST INTO OUR
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS WELL. HOWEVER, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
IN NATURE AND WOULD BE AN OFF-AND-ON TYPE OF RAIN, WITH THOSE IN THE
BLUEGRASS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL TOMORROW (30-40%).
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS,
WITH ISOLATED COMMUNITIES EAST OF I-75 HAVING A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE.
THE REAL PROBLEM IS THAT SINCE CAMS ARE STRUGGLING WITH CLOUD COVER
TODAY, THEY PROBABLY WILL TOMORROW AS COOL NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE
AGAIN, AT LEAST IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WE'VE DROPPED HIGHS
TOMORROW AS A RESULT, BUT MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED FURTHER SHOULD
CLOUD COVER PROVE TO BE STUBBORN LIKE THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS,
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN IN
COUNTIES AND MID 70S ACROSS THE TN BORDER. IF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL
TOMORROW CAN MIX OUT, THEN EVERYONE SHOULD EXPECT 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT TIME WILL TELL.
WEDNESDAY CLOSES OUT NEAR-CALM WITH SURFACE WINDS TAKING ON A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES FURTHER
EAST SLOWLY AND THE INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS LATE IN THE EVENING.
LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EARLY FALL WEATHER IS HERE! THIS PATTERN SHOULD LAST THROUGHOUT
MONDAY(ISH) BEFORE OUR HEAT STARTS TO CREEP BACK IN. WE REMAIN IN A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS WE AREN'T
PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, WE WILL SEE LOWER DEW POINTS AND RH
VALUES AND REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S. SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CHILLIEST OF ALL,
HEADING CLOSER TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE STARTING OUR SLOW
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT LONG PERIODS OF RAIN AREN'T IN THE
FORECAST. LOWER CLOUDS IN THE OVERNIGHTS AND FOG IN THE MORNINGS IS
LIKELY, BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY PUSH BACK UP TOWARD THE UPPER 70S AS A HIGH TEMP
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION WITH A GRADIENT TO THE MID 80S TOWARD
THE BOWLING GREEN AREA. AS WE HEAT UP NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD STILL GET
A GOOD DIURNAL CYCLE AND COOL TO THE UPPER 50S, BRINGING PLENTY OF
RELIEF AND LETTING US CONTINUE OUR FALL HOPES AND DREAMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MVFR TO PATCHY IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS SOCKED IN. BWG MAY
REACH BKN VFR CEILINGS BUT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN HEADING NORTH AND
EAST FROM THERE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN TO
LOW END MVFR-IFR WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE EAST AT LEX-RGA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS AND A CONTINUED NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...JPH
AVIATION...BKF
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