116
FXUS63 KLMK 301306
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
806 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ARCTIC FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-64. SOME FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE.
* WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 0 TO -10 ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ONGOING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND EXTENDED FROM OWENSBORO
EAST TO RADCLIFF AND THEN OVER TO WINCHESTER. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WAS FALLING WITHIN THE BAND REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND COATING
ROAD SURFACES ALONG THE WAY. SO FAR, WE'VE SEEN ABOUT A HALF TO ONE
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH THE BAND, MAINLY IN MEADE AND BRECKINRIDGE
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY.
THE BAND LOOKS TO REINTENSIFY A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL GENERALLY FALL SOUTH
OF THE WK AND BG PARKWAYS. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE BOWLING GREEN
AND GLASGOW AREAS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
THEN DOWN THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE FRONT IS
DENOTED BY A STRONG DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND A SHARP NORTHERLY CUTOFF
TO THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LIGHT
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY RIGHT ALONG THE US 60 CORRIDOR FROM
OWENSBORO OVER TO FORT KNOX AND THEN OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEXINGTON METRO. WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND, A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. THE FLUFFY SNOW QUICKLY ACCUMULATED
ON THE COLD ROAD SURFACES. TRAFFIC INTELLIGENCE SHOWS A RATHER SLOW
COMMUTE ACROSS HANCOCK/BRECKINRIDGE/MEADE/HARDIN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. THE INTERSTATES SEEM TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON TRAFFIC FLOW AND WEB CAMERAS.
THE SNOWBAND HAS LOST A BIT OF ITS PUNCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE BAND HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK
BACKUP IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LIKELY IN AN EAST-WEST
BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE WK AND BG PARKWAYS. WITHIN THAT BAND FOLKS
CAN EXPECT A DROP IN VISIBILITY AND FOR SNOW TO STICK TO ROAD
SURFACES. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KY BY
MID-LATE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND MILD LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS RESULTED
IN A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ALONG A LINE FROM TELL
CITY TO FORT KNOX TO BARDSTOWN AND OVER TO NICHOLASVILLE. WE EXPECT
THIS BAND TO SINK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT TRACKING, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THE OVERALL
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY WITH A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF UP TO
A HALF OR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT
WEBCAMS SHOW SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SNOW, THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ROAD ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN SEEN/REPORTED.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD THE FRONT WERE IN THE LOWER 20S, BEHIND THE
FRONT, TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
FOR TODAY, ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. ONGOING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF TO ONE
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S, THIS
LIGHT SNOW COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING ON TOP OF PREVIOUSLY
TREATED ROADS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON TOP
OF ONGOING TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THE EARLIER WINTER STORM. GIVEN THE
LOW QPF AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS, WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT, IMPACT-BASED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
FOR TONIGHT, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, A STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE BACK INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-
10KTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO -10F RANGE. THEREFORE,
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR SATURDAY, A VERY COLD/BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED. A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LEAVE HIT AND RUN COATINGS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
MOVING INTO SUNDAY, SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AND WE'LL SEE A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.
FOR MONDAY, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. STILL SEEING A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, TEMPS LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WHERE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE A
PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN HERE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A WINTRY MIX IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL POUR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WAS
LOCATED FROM KOWB TO KFTK OVER TO KRGA. EXPECT THIS BAND TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEST THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS
WRITING, THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL STAY OUT OF KHNB/KSDF/KLEX
AND PROBABLY KRGA. WILL CARRY SOME LIGHT SNOW DOWN IN THE KBWG
TERMINAL FROM MID-MORNING ON UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY
30/20Z. IN THE POST FRONTAL WAKE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 5-10KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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