598
FXUS63 KLMK 292351
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
751 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
* WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
* DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW EARLY MAY VALUES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
* WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
29/18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE COLD FRONT GETTING READY TO
EXIT THE LMK FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER CROSSING THE I-
65 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S WITH LOWER 70S STILL NOTED OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND ONCE THE FRONT ADVANCES ON THROUGH, THE THREAT OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER WITH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KY FROM THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE
IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S, BUT
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OF SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES
COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 30S.
FOR THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. MID-UPPER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN IN
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
KENTUCKY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE
BLUEGRASS REGION WITH LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A BROAD TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL
DROP INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING
AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LOW,
LIKELY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL FEATURE A
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. MID-UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH LOWER 40S DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
MOVING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
BE IN A SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN UP WITH TIME RESULTING IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SE US DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ARRIVAL
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS A LITTLE FASTER IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES, IT COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN KY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. SOME LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S. DECENT FROST THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREAS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED AS A LATE SEASON FROST AS OUR FROST CLIMATOLOGY STATES
THAT GETTING A FROST BEYOND MAY 1ST HAS A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30%.
SO FOLKS THAT HAVE SET OUT VEGETATION SHOULD BE PREPARED TO COVER
THINGS UP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 63-68 DEGREE RANGE.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AND LOWS UPPER 40S
TO THE LOWER 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE ONCE
AGAIN. WE'LL BE WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COME INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO WESTERN PLAINS AND COMBINING WITH
AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP SPURN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MID-WEEK. OVERALL
DETAILS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE BOARD, SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A STORMY
PATTERN CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE STARTING TO SLACKEN, HOWEVER DO EXPECT TO
HOLD ONTO SOME STEADY NW WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS FOR THE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
MORE OF A NNW TO N COMPONENT TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY. AFTER SUNRISE,
LOOK FOR STEADY WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NNE THROUGH TOMORROW. A FEW CU
AROUND 5-6 K FEET EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
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