427  
FXUS63 KLMK 170127  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
927 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* CHANCES FOR RAIN (<40%) POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75; OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY AND WARM  
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR, WINDS  
ARE LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN MOST  
AREAS. CIRRUS IS NOW SPREADING WEST OVER THE I-75 CORRIDOR, AND HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. WE'LL  
STAY MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING, WITH  
JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF I-75.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
 
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT  
WILL STEADILY ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST OF  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE DRY, BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDS MOVING IN COULD LIMIT COOLING SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY IN OUR  
EASTERN ZONES. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COULD START AS EARLY AS DAWN  
TOMORROW MORNING NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS A BAND/WAVE OF MOISTURE  
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MODELS VARY ON THE COVERAGE AND WESTWARD  
EXTEND OF PRECIPITATION BANDS, BUT MOST GENERALLY HAVE THEM  
WEAKENING AND/OR 'DRYING' UP AS THEY NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR. FOR  
NOW, HAVE 30-40% CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR I-75 COUNTIES, WITH CHANCES  
QUICKLY DROPPING OFF WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. OVERALL QPF IS FAIRLY LOW  
WITH THESE SHOWERS (<0.25" FOR THE DAY), SO THIS WON'T BE A 'DROUGHT  
BUSTER' BY ANY MEANS.  
 
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOUDS, AS  
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.  
THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE THIN ENOUGH WEST OF I-65 THAT WE'LL SEE  
HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IS FORECAST TO  
CONTINUE INLAND PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN KENTUCKY MOUNTAINS  
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO KENTUCKY, CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BRING  
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING "COOLER"  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80 ON A LINE  
FROM TOMPKINSVILLE TO DANVILLE TO LEXINGTON AND EASTWARD, WHILE  
OTHER LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 80S.  
 
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TO BRING A WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL HAVE HEAT INDICES FEELING COOLER THAN  
TEMPERATURE READINGS, LIKELY "FEELING" LIKE IN THE MID 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
 
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD  
IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS.  
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT TUESDAY,  
WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY  
MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER  
NEAR LEX AND RGA THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS ON TUE.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...EBW  
SHORT TERM...DM  
LONG TERM...MCK  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
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