111
FXUS63 KLMK 161750
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
150 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105.
* WEAK SFC BOUNDARY BRINGS LOW END (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
* WHILE NOT AS HOT, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING THANKS TO THE
STRONG ANOMALOUS 600DM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN OR JUST AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACT IN THE WEATHER
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT IS A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IN,
NORTH IF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED CELLS
FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL IN THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THE MAIN
BOUNDARY IS TO THE CWA, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS
RATHER LOW.
IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WARM
AND BOTTOMING OUT IN LOW 70S WITH URBAN LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE
MID 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
OVERALL HEAT. BY TOMMOROW, THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION AS IT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN IN LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN HEAT BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-105.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN IN, NORTH CENTRAL KY AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. CURRENT
FORECASTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO
ACROSS THE STATE OF KY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
LARGE INFLUENCE ON NOT JUST POTENTIAL SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL BUT
ALSO ON OUR TEMPERATURES. THE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT IS STARTING TO
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY COULD GO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KY/TN BORDER. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD NOT NEED TO CONTINUE THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO FRIDAY. IF IT STOPS SHORT AND MAKES IT TO ONLY CENTRAL
KY THEN SOME OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY NEED TO
CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE, IT WAS DECIDED TO WAIT ON MORE DATA AND CONFIDENCE
BEFORE EXTENDING THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY.
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN TO START THE WEEKEND BUT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER WEST. WHILE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 90S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HOT. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY
FOR THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO
STRONG ANOMALOUS 600CM UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SFC
BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OVER INDIANA. SOME MID-LEVEL CU LIKELY WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM (LESS THAN 10%) MOST TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
KYZ023>034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>077-081.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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