365
FXUS63 KLMK 200735
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MAINTAINS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. A PAIR OF LATITUDINALLY SEPARATED SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WEAK
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE ARE KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW EVEN THOUGH THE GFS, EURO AND NAM MODELS
ALL HAVE INCREASED QPF CLOSER TO 0.20 INCHES ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 MPH WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20MPH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019
MAIN CHALLENGE ON THURSDAY IS HOW QUICKLY ANY PRECIP CAN ACTUALLY
DEPART THE AREA. NOW SEEING ENOUGH PHASING TO SUPPORT A SHARPER AND
SLOWER TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL HOLD IN AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 IN THE MORNING, AND
ONLY SLOWLY DEPARTING THE BLUEGRASS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EARLY
PRECIP AND DELAYING ANY CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL
REALLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 50 IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYS. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD
BEHIND A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S, BUT WE'LL SEE A QUICK RECOVERY UNDER RISING HEIGHTS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES EDGING CLOSER
FROM THE WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND FLIP-FLOPPING. WILL KEEP MOST OF
SUNDAY DRY UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH THE REAL UNSETTLED
WEATHER COMING SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST GFS NOW DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING, WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM, BUT DOESN'T SUPPRESS IT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. TEMPS ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES, SO THERE WILL BE SOME GENERIC RAIN/SNOW MIX
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. POPS IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD WILL BE CAPPED IN
THE LIKELY RANGE, BUT IT IS ESSENTIALLY A SLAM DUNK THAT WE WILL SEE
PRECIP AT SOME POINT IN THOSE COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2019
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TODAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO ALL TAF SITES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET AND CROSS FUEL ALTERNATE THRESHOLDS.
MODELS AGREE THAT CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY. VIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DOWN TO MVFR BUT REMAIN
ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE THRESHOLDS.
LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY OUT OF THE ESE THIS MORNING, WILL VEER TO THE SW
BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 18KTS POSSIBLE.
EXPECT WINDS TO MAINTAIN A SWRLY COMPONENT AND LIGHTEN UP BY SUNSET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page