415
FXUS63 KLMK 131739
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SUNNY, CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.
* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. 0.75-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
* DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING, WITH SUNNY SKIES PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY MODERATED INTO THE 40S AS OF 16Z, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR, WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO
NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND DRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A ESE
COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 50S TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WHILE HIGH 50S CAN
BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY 10Z FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN 20K FT AND HIGHER ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO DROP INTO THE HIGH 20S AND MID 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
===== SATURDAY - SUNDAY =====
DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MATURE AS IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL
BUILD INTO REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALOFT,
RIDGING WILL BUILD AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
50S AND TOUCHING 60 IN SOME SOUTHERN AREAS.
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, A LLJ WILL ENTER FROM
THE SW AND USHER IN BETTER MOISTURE. PWATS WILL INCREASE OVER
KENTUCKY TO 1-1.25 INCHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT AND
THE LLJ WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL (AT TIMES). RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPER
SIMILARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
QPF IS FORECASTED TO BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND 1-
1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF I-64. SOME AREAS IN FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS. PONDING IN LOW AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RIVER ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS RAINFALL.
THOUGH WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND GOOD RUN-OFF CONDITIONS, RIVERS
WILL RISE AND SOME MAY TOUCH ACTION LEVEL, BUT REMAINING BELOW MINOR
FLOODING.
===== NEXT WEEK =====
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR DEEP TROUGHING AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONUS, PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG LLJ WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A WAA REGIME INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE
A WINDY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30MPH.
WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A MESSY PATTERN ALOFT WHERE ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS THE COUNTRY, BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT AT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WITH
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, WINDS
SHOULD ESTABLISH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, BEFORE VEERING
TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH BWG AND HNB (AS
WELL AS SDF BY AROUND 21Z), BUT WE'LL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG
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