350
FXUS63 KLMK 091935
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KY.
* VERY WARM AND BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
* DRY AND MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S. WE'LL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A WEAK MID-
LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WAA REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
OVERNIGHT, AND USHER IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS A RESULT,
WE'LL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ELEVATED
STORMS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. STORMS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH UNDER 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AND TAPER OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY, BUT WE WILL
REMAIN IN A STRONG WAA PATTERN WITH BREEZY SW WINDS, AND MAYBE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S
BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, LOW END PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT...
AS THE WARM FRONT OF THE SFC LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
NORTH, A SECONDARY FRONT/SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE PRESENT, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE IF STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED OR ABLE TO BECOME SFC-
ROOTED. THOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE, AN ENHANCED LLJ, 40-50 KT OF WIND SHEAR, AS WELL AS
MODEST SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD HELP
FUEL THESE STORMS TO BE A BIT STRONGER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST OVER TEXAS WHILE THE NORTHERN JET DIGS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH MODERATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. DEEP LAYER SW FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE CARRIED IN OVER THE REGION, WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING AROUND 1.5" OF PW (NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
99TH PERCENTILE) AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR, STRONG DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, AND DECENT INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS EVENT. THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AS WELL AS HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AFTER THE
EARLY-WEDNESDAY WAVE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, SO CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXTENT OF IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ARE NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BECOME ELEVATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY...
AS THE FRONT EXITS OFF TO THE EAST, COLD AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FILL IN OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 30S, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. CALM
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM DIGS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. ITS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. VERY COLD AIR WILL FILL IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT, ENOUGH SO THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
MOST MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED, BUT STILL DEALING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SOME MVFR
AND IFR CIGS LINGERING. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE THESE CIGS IMPROVE BY
THIS EVENING TO VFR, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS IN THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SDF/LEX/RGA, AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER CHANCES AT BWG BY TOMORROW MORNING. RESTRICTED FLIGHT CATS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CJP
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