991
FXUS63 KLMK 290224
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
924 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
..FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.
* WIDESPREAD RAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR MIN TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN NORMAL. AS A RESULT, ONLY EXPECTING
MID 30S FOR MOST. SOME OF THE VERY SHELTERED AREAS MAY STILL
DECOUPLE, AND IF SO, COULD STILL GO QUITE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER,
THOSE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS. A PERFECT EXAMPLE WOULD BE
THE CUMBERLAND COUNTY MESONET SITE THAT IS ONE OF OUR TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS. IT IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT 27F. NO OTHER SITE IN OUR CWA IS
LOWER THAN 39.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ESE FROM GITCHE GUMEE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN SENSIBLE WX IMPACT WILL
BE A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER LOW-LEVEL JETTING TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE, BUT WITH SW WINDS STAYING UP AT
10-15 MPH.
A SUBTLE RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS AROUND DAYBREAK, SO
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD. FORECAST TEMPS RUN TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA STAYING IN THE UPPER 40S, BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PROVIDED US WITH THE DRY WEATHER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL WORK EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW WILL INCREASE WAA AND GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX
REGION DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WORKS NORTHWARD.
THE HEAVIEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST LLJ IN CONJUNCTION OF THE PEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND HIGHEST PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT WE COULD SEE A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN, WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING OVER 2
INCHES. WHILE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS INSTABILITY REMAINS NON EXISTENT. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AND GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA AS THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WESTERN KY NOSES
INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWA COUNTIES.
RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CAPE AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATE
WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 15-20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. GIVEN
THE OVERALL LACK OF STRONG LIFT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR
EAST, AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S BUT WAA RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND DRY FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. ONLY REAL CONCERN IS
LLWS THREAT SETTING UP NOW THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON A W - E LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 43 TO 48 KNOTS. A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
BE AROUND TOMORROW, ALONG WITH STEADY W WINDS. MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR ANY GUSTS WILL BE LEX.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page