801  
FXUS63 KLMK 161052  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
652 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING, WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING CLOUD  
COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE FAST WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED  
OFF TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND IN  
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN. THESE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH'S INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.  
 
WE'RE SEEING COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ENE OVERHEAD, WITH LOW  
STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER  
40S WERE COMMON IN CENTRAL KY, WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN  
SOUTHERN IN. DID GO AHEAD AND BOOST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE MORNING, WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST ALL DAY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING  
WILL BE THINNER IN NATURE, SO PLAN IS TO HOLD ON TO THE FROST  
ADVISORY. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE THIN CIRRUS, TEMPS NORTH OF THE  
RIVER MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE 34-38 DEGREE RANGE CLOSER TO DAWN.  
WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY, HOWEVER. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED VALLEYS AND TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.  
 
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO WARM FASTER. CLOUDS WILL MEAN STEADIER  
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A LOT OF MID  
50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SLIGHTLY  
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A STEADY WEST WIND TONIGHT, WITH  
HIGHER CLOUDS LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KY. LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITTING JUST TO THE CWA'S NORTHEAST  
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A MID-  
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE  
CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A NORTH  
COMPONENT TO THE WIND, CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
WEDNESDAY MORNING ISN'T EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH FROST, BUT THURSDAY  
MORNING COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE  
BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE IT TO THE MID  
50S.  
 
EARLY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICKLY  
ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS.  
THIS SHIFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES  
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CWA BY MID-DAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THAT IS WHEN  
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST AS A  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, CLEAR SKIES, AND A NORTH  
WINDS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL REMAIN UNTIL A SURFACE HIGH  
PASSES THE CWA EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SOUTH WIND ADVECTING  
WARMER AIR THROUGH THE CWA AND RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY  
MORNING IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS IS TAKING A LONG TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF A BWG  
TO DVK LINE. VAST MAJORITY OF RH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING  
CEILINGS AFTER 12Z. THE STRATUS WILL LINGER LONGER SOUTH AND EAST OF  
BWG, TOWARD BNA AS WELL AS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. OTHERWISE,  
VFR WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS  
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS WILL  
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING  
MORE CLEAR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY IS VFR WITH  
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083.  
 
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ032.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EBW  
LONG TERM...KDW  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
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