675  
FXUS63 KLMK 181034  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
634 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
UPDATED AT 305 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
PERSISTENCE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS STILL NOT  
BEING REPRESENTED WELL BY GFS. EURO-BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GOING  
FOR 91, WHICH IS BETTER. SEE NO REASON WHY WE SHOULDN'T AT LEAST  
MATCH WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AS WE HAVE SIMILAR FEATURES  
SYNOPTICALLY. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGE COULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR LAKE  
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES, WHERE A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME  
OROGRAPHIC AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY DOWN THERE.  
TONIGHT, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT. WE HAVEN'T HAD MUCH LUCK THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS  
GENERATING THIS LAYER, BUT WILL TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING BY  
DAYBREAK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
UPDATED AT 215 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY THRU SUNDAY
 
   
..WEAKENING COLD FRONT FOR 1ST DAY OF FALL
 
 
WELL...THE UPPER RIDGE IS ONCE AGAIN THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE,  
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WITHER GRASSES AND HARDEN THE  
GROUND. TEMPS WILL OVERACHIEVE DUE TO THE DRY GROUND. THE GFS RAW  
NUMBER AND MOS ARE WAY WAY TOO LOW (HAVE BEEN FOR DAYS)  
 
THIS PERSISTENT STUBBORN RIDGE WILL DEFLECT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE  
NW KEEPING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT AFTERNOON  
APEXES TO GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY. ON THU  
AND FRIDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE  
TROPICAL LEFT OVER FROM IMELDA ON BACK SIDE OF SFC RIDGE, SO WILL  
ONLY GO UPPER 80S. THE MAV HAS 81 FOR SDF FRI AND 79 FOR LEX.  
 
ON THU THERE IS A SUBTLE HINT OF VERY VERY ISOLATED LATE DAY POP-UP  
BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING AT 800 MB AND UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. FOR  
NOW <10 % POPS.  
 
AS HUMBERTO HEADS PASSED BERMUDA A 1028 MB HIGH FROM QUEBEC WILL  
SLIDE AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND SET UP OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.  
THIS WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA AND WARM TEMPS INTO  
THE WEEKEND WITH 588-590 M OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO  
OVERACHIEVE.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING OUR  
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE  
NORTH. OVERALL POP COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.  
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE WETTEST, BUT FOR NOW HAVE  
MAINTAINED CHANCE TO SLGT CHC POPS.  
 
WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY GET UP TO 20 MPH GUSTS WITH SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF  
FRONT AND HIGH PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK WILL COME DOWN SOME, THOUGH  
WE'RE TALKING HIGHS IN THE 80S VS 90S. STILL ABOVE NORMAL!  
 
THE DEEP EXTENDED HAS BEEN FLIPPING AND FLOPPING WITH GFS AND ECM.  
BOTH MODELS TAKE POTENT UPPER LOW FROM OLYMPIC MTNS AND CRATER LAKE  
NP DOWN INTO THE DESERT SW. THEN THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH A HAVE A  
HIGH SPECTRUM WIDTH OF SPREAD VARIABILITY. CLIMATE NORMAL HIGHS DROP  
INTO THE UPPER 70S NEXT WEEK BUT IT APPEARS WE ILL STILL BE ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR SOME TIME.  
 
WEATHER TIDBIT...  
 
SEP 22, 1869...PROFESSOR CLEVELAND ABBE BEGAN FORECASTING WEATHER  
IN CINCINNATI. PROF ABBE WAS ONE OF OUR NATION'S PIONEER WEATHER  
FORECASTERS AND OBSERVERS. THATS 150 YEARS AGO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
UPDATED AT 635 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
DRY PATTERN HOLDING IN PLACE. SEEING VERY FEW PATCHES OF RIVER  
VALLEY FOG, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF LEX AND NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. WITH  
THIS SET OF TAFS WILL REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR BWG, BUT KEPT IT IN AT  
HNB, WHERE HUMIDITY EARLY THIS MORNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SEE A BRIEF  
DROP. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY  
WIND TODAY, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RJS  
LONG TERM...JDG  
AVIATION...RJS  
 
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