385
FXUS63 KLMK 282355
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
* OUR PROLONGED STRETCH OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY, WHILE NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE HIGH
TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN KENTUCKY BORDER. SURFACE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WIND SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 10MPH WITH GUST IN THE UPPER TEENS.
TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AS A DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE A RESULT OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF
THE PARKWAYS. MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS
WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY. AREAS AROUND BOWLING GREEN AND IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY, WHILE FREEZING FOG COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COULD
CAUSE LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN MOST OF THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S
WILL BE ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WE'LL REMAIN IN A COLD AND FAIRLY ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE NW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT NARROWER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
APPEARS POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COULD PRODUCE
A SWATH OF VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, MOST LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS
OF DRY, FLUFFY SNOW. SOME LOCALIZED IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK ROADS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON COMMUTES. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
10-20 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S (NORTH) TO AROUND 30 DEGREES (SOUTH).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WHILE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER SURGE OF FRIGID AIR WILL STREAM INTO
THE REGION ON DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY CHANCES DO
LINGER INTO SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, AND WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS
AS COLD AS -5 TO -10 ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK VERY COLD, AND MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES APPEARS POSSIBLE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR/IFR POTENTIAL: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWPACK, LIGHT WINDS, CLEARING SKIES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE A
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND MIST/FRZ. FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST
OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
WHILE WE HAVE SOME BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA, THESE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FACTOR IN
THE 3 TO 10 INCH SNOWPACK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND FACILITATE
QUICK COOLING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG/MIST TO FORM
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS. USING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES, THE SIGNAL IS THERE THAT SOME FREEZING FOG/MIST
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SITES LIKE HNB/RGA AND NEED
TO WATCH AROUND LEX/BWG. TYPICALLY IT IS HARD TO GET FOG AT SDF BUT
ALSO THINK WE COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOP.
CHALLENGE AFTER AROUND 15/16Z WILL BE HOW QUICKLY ANY MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM CIG/VIS IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AS CURRENT WIND
FORECAST REMAIN LIGHT WITH BKN TO OVC SKY CONDITIONS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN
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