963  
FXUS63 KLMK 050754  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
254 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
 
BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SITTING OVER THE LOWER 48. WITHIN THIS RIDGE,  
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING PRECIPITATION TO AREAS  
NEAR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY, THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISBAND AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVERSE THE  
GULF COAST.  
 
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN OF OUR CWA? A FEW CLOUDS. CIRRUS CLOUDS, MOST  
NOTICEABLE IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL  
STREAM OVERHEAD. MOST ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS  
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHEAST  
WIND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, LOW  
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND UPPER 40S WEST OF A LINE  
NEAR MADISON, IN TO LAKE CUMBERLAND, KY.  
 
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING CLOUDS GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS  
GO NEAR CALM AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LOW TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE  
MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
 
EXPECT A CHILLY WEEKEND AS WE START OFF WITH A FULL-LATITUDE EAST  
COAST UPPER TROF, AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS.  
RIDGING STARTS TO WIN OUT LATE SUNDAY, BUT LOOK FOR BOTH WEEKEND  
DAYS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  
 
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A FLATTER PATTERN WITH LOW-  
AMPLITUDE RIDGING. WE'LL STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT,  
WITH TEMPS WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE  
STARTS BREAKING DOWN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, AND WE COULD SEE AT  
LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM  
ADVECTION REGIME. AT THIS POINT WILL LIMIT POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OVER OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. IF CLOUD COVER DOESN'T HOLD US BACK TOO  
MUCH ON WEDNESDAY, IT COULD TURN OUT UNSEASONABLY WARM.  
 
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WE SEE AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE SW  
DESERT, AND FAST WSW FLOW SETTING UP FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES. A FAIRLY ACTIVE FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND  
INDIANA. FOR NOW WE'LL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE, TAPERED A BIT AS  
YOU HEAD SOUTH, BUT THINK THE CUTOFF WILL ACTUALLY END UP SHARPER  
THAN THAT.  
 
BEYOND THURSDAY WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE THIS FRONT MIGHT HANG  
UP, AS IT BECOMES A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN  
THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AS IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER  
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN  
STREAM, AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE THE FRONT, SO  
KEEP TABS ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STATES.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN CIRRUS STREAMING OVER AREA TAF SITES DURING  
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH  
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KDW  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...KDW  
 
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