332
FXUS63 KLMK 021846
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE. EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
* THERE IS A RISK OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* UNSETTLED, MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK
WITH MODEST RELIEF FROM HOT TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS OUR UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KY. ANOTHER DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. THIS COMBINATION OF T/TD IS YIELDING HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE 105-107 DEGREE RANGE
IN AREAS WEST OF I-65. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM.
THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST/WESTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED CU
FIELD IN SWING FROM MIDDLE TN INTO WESTERN KY. MLCIN IN THIS REGION
IS MUCH WEAKER AND WITH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM,
AND PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES, THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THAT FIRE. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WOULD BE WET MICROBURSTS WITH
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY BOWLING GREEN TO OWENSBORO. ELSEWHERE, WE EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE
100-110 RANGE.
FOR THIS EVENING, WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, ANY CONVECTION THAT
FIRES LOOKS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZED. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING DOWN INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL HOLD
REIGN ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH WITH A DECREASING INFLUENCE. WITH
THE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, WE EXPECT TO SEE A BIT LESS
CAPPING IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ALLOW A HIGHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RATHER NEBULOUS. SO
WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON LEFT OVER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AT THIS TIME, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO RUN CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION, RESIDUAL CAPPING WITH
THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION AT A RELATIVE MIN IN
THIS AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK, SO STORMS THAT GO UP WILL NOT
MOVE TOO MUCH UNTIL THEY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. GIVEN AMPLE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WET MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, RFC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN HANDLE ABOUT 1.75-2 INCH/HR RATES
BEFORE FLOODING MAY COMMENCE. THUS, ISOLATED HYDRO ISSUES COULD
CROP UP WHERE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD FIRE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE WILL CONTINUE THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT AND OFFENSIVE HUMIDITY. THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS LED TO
A SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE NEARLY 4 DAYS OF NEARLY
FULL SUN, WE HAVE NOT DRIED OUT AND MOST OF THE RADIATION COMING IN
HAS GONE TO DRY THE SOIL AND NOT HEATING THE AIR. ADDITIONALLY, OUR
VEGETATIVE COVER IS LUSH AND GREEN WHICH IS HELPING DRIVE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PRODUCING THIS HIGH HUMIDITY. GIVEN THAT WE'VE
UNDERACHIEVED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, HAVE OPTED TO LET THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING GO UNTIL EXPIRATION FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL REVERT TO
A PLAIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WAS
DONE TO KEEP THE PUBLIC'S ATTENTION ON HEAT AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
OUTDOOR CELEBRATIONS THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT
RELATED STRESS ON FOLKS OUT AND ABOUT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUMP
AMPLE MOISTURE AND FUEL INTO THE REGION. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3500-4000 J/KG,
THERE ISN'T MUCH FORCE BEHIND THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE. ROUNDS OF
SUMMERTIME-LIKE PULSE CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. PWAT
VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH (1.75-2.0") SO ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THESE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, AS THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THESE
STORMS.
A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR FRIDAY 9 PM EDT/8 PM CDT TO SATURDAY
9 PM EDT/ 8 PM CDT AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S, MAKING FOR ANOTHER SIZZLING DAY. HOWEVER,
DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION, SOME AREAS COULD
REMAIN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A BETTER FORCING MECHANISM
ALONG THIS FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD,
KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION LOCKED UNDER AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY (ROUGHLY 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE).
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS FAVOR THE FRONT
STALLING TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING THE NORTHERN CWA DRIER ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND. HOWEVER, OTHERS KEEP THE FRONT
LOCKED OVER THE REGION, CONTINUING TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS, AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH 35-50% POPS ACROSS THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK, BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN A PROB30 FOR BWG FROM 20Z TO 23Z. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH BWG RETURNING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE CALMING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ FRIDAY TO 9 PM EDT /8
PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ FRIDAY TO 9 PM EDT /8
PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....REJ
AVIATION.....REJ
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