951
FXUS63 KLMK 141909
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE
EXPECTED.
* COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
* A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IN. THE
ADDITIONAL FORCING CAUSED BY THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PWATS
JUST BELOW 2", RAIN SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A HEALTHY DOWNPOUR. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SUBSEVERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THIS EVENINGS
SHOWERS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE
WEST WILL START TO BUILD IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE PARTIALLY
CLOUDY, SO OVERALL A NICE START TO THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR MID JUNE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE MID 50S. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANOMOUSOLY DEEP SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THEN
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SFC COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM HE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS, A STRONG LLJ WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. ALOFT, A STRONG JET STREAK WILL BE PASSING BY TO
OUR NORTH CREATING LONG CURVED MODEL HODOGRAPHS WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE,
IT ISN'T SURPRISING THAT THE SPC HAS PUT US IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT (LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5).
WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE FINER DETAILS AND OF COURSE JUST HOW IMPACTFUL THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ALONG WITH CONTINUED
STRONG AI GUIDANCE RUN AFTER RUN THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THE WORST AND MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE PLACE. BECAUSE OF THIS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BUT WE DO EXPECT THERE TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COOL JUNE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80 AND RATHER COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS AS WE
START THE WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE NEAR THE END OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KY AND
MOVE NE. BEHIND THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING
THROUGH CENTRAL IN THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CLOUD
BASES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE, AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED VIS IS POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIND GUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
UNTIL WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO NNW ORIENTATION BY TOMORROW. SKIES
WILL ALSO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CAL
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