584
FXUS63 KLMK 310551
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
151 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW WITH A
TRANSITION FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER.
* UNSEASONABLY COOL AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
* LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 80S AT THIS HOUR AND HEAT
INDICES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100F. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELIEF FROM HOT AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES IS ON THE WAY. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL ENTER SOUTHERN INDIANA BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
IN OUR WEATHER FROM THE LONG EXTENDED HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE WHERE WE EXPECTED THEM TODAY,
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S, THE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A BIT
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 70S COMPARED TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE LOWER
THAN EXPECTED, WITH VALUES AS OF 18Z-19Z BETWEEN 95-100. WITH THAT
SAID, GIVEN HOW LONG WE'VE BEEN ENDURING THE HEAT AND THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT
ADVISORIES IN PLACE UNTIL 00Z BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE ENDED
BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED TIME.
CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SIGNAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES
FOR US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE EXPECTED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH INTO CENTRAL IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM ACROSS CENTRAL IN LATER TONIGHT COULD SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE
COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.
COLD FRONT WILL START TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KY DURING
THE DAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON THE SOLUTION WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH BETTER
INITIATION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THANKS TO PEAK HEATING AND HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES. STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING BUT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE REMAINS LOW. A NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WITH LOW 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PARKWAYS WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO SOUTHERN IN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AS DEWPOINTS GO FROM THE LOW 70S
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW/MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS ON FRIDAY, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE TN/KY
BORDER, LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION AND STRETCHING UP THE I-75 CORRIDOR
INTO THE BLUEGRASS. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ONLY WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND MORNING LOWS AN ALMOST
CHILLY LOW 60S TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN IN. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL COMPARED TO
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IT WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S, AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS SOUTHERN KY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD TO START THE NEW WEEK,
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.
RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INCREASING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID LATE
SUMMER WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WILL RETURN AND AS A FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL FEATURES
WORK ALONG THE PERIPHERAL OF THE WESTERN RIDGE, WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
MAIN QUESTION IN THIS TAF SET IS OVERNIGHT FOG, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON TEMP/DEWPOINT
TRENDS, BWG ACTUALLY LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE FOR FOG, SO LIMITED THE
MENTION TO A TEMPO MVFR THERE, WHILE WE DID INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF PREVAILING MVFR AT LEX. EXPECT SDF TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE
DURATION.
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX BEING JUST A WIND SHIFT AS THE WARM SECTOR IS A
BIT CAPPED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE A MARKED
WIND SHIFT TO NEARLY SURE NORTH, WITH A SOLID 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME GUSTS PUSHING 20 KT IN
THIS NORTHERLY SURGE. ALSO CARRIED PROB30 FOR SHRA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL, BUT NOT MENTIONING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
INTENSITY. HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EVENING AND AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL DROP BELOW 2000 FEET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...RAS
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