676
FXUS63 KLMK 291120
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
* UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE
NOTED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO TO FORT
KNOX TO SOMERSET. UNDER THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 20S, BUT IN THE CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTHWEST, TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS. A FEW OF OUR
PROTECTED AREAS AND TYPICAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AREAS ARE BELOW ZERO
AT THIS HOUR (CYNTHIANA). FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING LOOKS
TO BE DECREASING BY THE HOUR AS PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL STATUS DECK
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG
ACROSS OUR SE INDIANA LOCATIONS WHERE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LOW.
HOWEVER, A LARGE SHIELD OF UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL SHUT OFF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL FOG PRODUCTION. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY DAWN AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE STABILIZING AND PERHAPS
RISING SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDS LIFTING A BIT MORE DURING THE DAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS WHERE LESS SNOWPACK IS LOCATED.
HERE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY LOOK TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DROPPING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A SWATH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT IN THE DGZ FOR SNOW
FLURRIES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, A NW-SE ORIENTED STREAK OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THIS
EVENT, STILL SEEING SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS SWATH OF
SNOW DEVELOPS. THE GFS/GEM/EURO/NAMS HAVE THE SWATH MAINLY FROM
SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL KY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
HRRR AND SOME OF THE WRF RUNS SUGGEST THE SNOW SWATH WILL BE MORE
CONTAINED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN KY. THE MODELS DO PRODUCE
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITHIN THE ONGOING ARCTIC AIRMASS SO A DRY, BUT
FLUFFY SNOW WOULD BE SEEN IN THIS SITUATION. MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS LOOK LIKELY.
THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
COMMUTES AND COULD RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS. AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOWER 20S DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF A MOISTURE FETCH OF THE LAKES. SO SCATTERED SNOW
FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE TN/NE
GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST COAST STORM BRINING
SNOWFALL TO THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS AS THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHTER SNOWS BACK TOWARD
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER RE-INFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS REGIME. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -5
TO -10F RANGE. WE'LL SEE SOME MODERATION OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE EAST COAST STORM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST, WE'LL SEE A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWS TO
THE REGION WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. WE'LL SEE A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY MID-WEEK YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
WE'LL SEE TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 30S IN THE
NORTH WITH UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. SIMILAR READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE CLOUD COVER HAS PREVENTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND WILL LIMIT FOG PRODUCTION THIS MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER DOWN IN THE KBWG AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME VERY LIGHT MIST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY
BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THOUGH
THE MAIN WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
COMPONENT. LATER TONIGHT, LOOK FOR CIGS TO DROP TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSDF/KLEX.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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