676
FXUS63 KLMK 200650
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE (NEAR 100% CHANCE) IN DRY WEATHER ALL WEEK.
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, WILL WORSEN IN RESPONSE.
* PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS
(UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) AND CRISP MORNINGS (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CONDITIONS ARE CALM AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL KY AND
SOUTHERN IN. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 40S, THOUGH THE
COOLEST KY MESONET STATIONS (MEADE, HARRISON, AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES) HAVE SETTLED INTO THE UPPER 30S. SOME PATCHY FROST REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE COOLEST LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.
FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AFTER DRY AIR MIXDOWN
LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN MANY AREAS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES REVEAL A
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE AREAS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER SPECTACULAR FALL DAY IS ON TAP. WE'LL
SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE CRISP START,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL HELP KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN US AND CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY
REMAINS IN PLACE OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO
MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT NE FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT SEVERAL
DAYS OF PLEASANT WEATHER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
===== WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ====
WHILE THE BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WILL BE NICE TO HAVE, IT DOES COME
WITH A CATCH. THIS PROLONGED DRY PERIOD COULD WORSEN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. ALMOST OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW
EXPERIENCING AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY EVEN WORSE WITH MODERATE DROUGHT (D1). SINCE SEPT 1,
LOUISVILLE (SDF) AND LEXINGTON ARE BOTH RUNNING MORE THAN 2.7" BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BOWLING GREEN IS ONLY BEHIND
0.70" SINCE SEPT 1, BUT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THEY ARE 5.37"
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE START OF 2026. WITH NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
WORSEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE, WITH EARLY MORNING
FOG EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO RIVER VALLEYS. AN AREA OF
HIGH CLOUDS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST AS OF THIS WRITING WILL BRING SCT-
BKN CLOUDS NEAR 20 KFT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASING
BRIEFLY TO 5-7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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