963
FXUS63 KLMK 050754
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
254 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS SITTING OVER THE LOWER 48. WITHIN THIS RIDGE,
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
NEAR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISBAND AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVERSE THE
GULF COAST.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN OF OUR CWA? A FEW CLOUDS. CIRRUS CLOUDS, MOST
NOTICEABLE IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD. MOST ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GET PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHEAST
WIND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND UPPER 40S WEST OF A LINE
NEAR MADISON, IN TO LAKE CUMBERLAND, KY.
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING CLOUDS GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
GO NEAR CALM AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP LOW TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
EXPECT A CHILLY WEEKEND AS WE START OFF WITH A FULL-LATITUDE EAST
COAST UPPER TROF, AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS.
RIDGING STARTS TO WIN OUT LATE SUNDAY, BUT LOOK FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A FLATTER PATTERN WITH LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING. WE'LL STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH TEMPS WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
STARTS BREAKING DOWN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, AND WE COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. AT THIS POINT WILL LIMIT POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER OUR INDIANA COUNTIES. IF CLOUD COVER DOESN'T HOLD US BACK TOO
MUCH ON WEDNESDAY, IT COULD TURN OUT UNSEASONABLY WARM.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WE SEE AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE SW
DESERT, AND FAST WSW FLOW SETTING UP FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. A FAIRLY ACTIVE FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA. FOR NOW WE'LL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE, TAPERED A BIT AS
YOU HEAD SOUTH, BUT THINK THE CUTOFF WILL ACTUALLY END UP SHARPER
THAN THAT.
BEYOND THURSDAY WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE THIS FRONT MIGHT HANG
UP, AS IT BECOMES A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN
THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY AS IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM, AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE THE FRONT, SO
KEEP TABS ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CIRRUS STREAMING OVER AREA TAF SITES DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...KDW
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