248
FXUS63 KLMK 131707
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY AND TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
* TUESDAY, OVERALL DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARRIVE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
TODAY, THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST. UPPER FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL, BUT
IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO A MILD UPPER RIDGE WITH UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH. THIS FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE TREND
OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DROPPING. CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE RISK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
TONIGHT, A LOW CHANCE REMAINS THAT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COLD PUSH
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MOST HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COMMUNITIES TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MONDAY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
UPPER RIDGING REACH THE CWA, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION, BUT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH, WAA
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIFT HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT CENTERED
NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS PUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
A FRONT RIDING OVER THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTH, TRENDING OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, BUT BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI, NORTHWEST FLOW COULD HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
IT WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
LIGHT WINDS BEGIN IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT AROUND 5 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS. AN ISOLATED FEW GUSTS OF AROUND 18 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. THE WIND THEN SHIFTS TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN EVEN A PROB30 GROUP. FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WHILE A
SLIGHTLY LOWER SCATTERED CLOUD DECK APPROACHES OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...JPH
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