525
FXUS63 KLMK 201120
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
..FRIGID WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PIVOTED NE OVER OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA, GRADUALLY PULLING THE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND WITH IT. AS
THE STRONGEST FORCING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE BAND OVER LEXINGTON AND THE REST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION HAS
WEAKENED. STILL, LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
10Z THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES WHERE SNOW CONTINUES;
OTHERWISE, WILL CANCEL THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHORTLY. ROADS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SLICK THROUGH THE MORNING, AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SNOW COVERED INTO THE DAYTIME.
USE EXTRA CAUTION IF GETTING OUT THIS MORNING. TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE
AND SNOW.
SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF SUNSHINE, WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST ROAD CREWS. BUT EXTEND AND DURATION OF THIS
CLEARING IS UNCLEAR. A N-S LAKE-EFFECT STRATUS BAND OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CREEP INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA. THEN, MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE 6-10 PM CST TIME
FRAME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN.
THE MAIN THING TO KNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THAT IT'S QUITE COLD.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP, HOWEVER, AND WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
STAY IN THE 0 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE MOST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS. BUT A STEADY 5
MPH WIND WILL HELP KEEP THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM
CRASHING TOO MUCH. HAVE GONE FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM 4-
16 DEGREES, COLDEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY RESULTING IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A GRADIENT WITH READINGS IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION
IN THE LOWER 20S AND MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
CENTRAL KY. THE WARMEST AREA LOOKS TO BE OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
TOWARD BOWLING GREEN WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 32-33. ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LOWS OF 20-25
WILL BE FOUND SOUTH AND WEST OF A LOUISVILLE TO SOMERSET LINE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KY. ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S WITH A COLD RAIN FALLING. SURFACE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SO HIGHS
WOULD BE EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE 40S, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S BY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY, BUT WE'LL LIKELY
SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAD ANOTHER SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE TONIGHT KEEPS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WEST.
FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF
CLIPPER SYSTEMS COMING DOWN AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AT THIS RANGE IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF WINTRY WEATHER
AS EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 620 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT TIMES LATE IN THE
DAY. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. THICKENING CLOUDS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE
SNOW FLURRIES AT BWG AND SURROUNDING AREAS, GENERALLY BETWEEN
23-04Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
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