801
FXUS63 KLMK 161052
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018
QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING, WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OFF TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND IN
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN. THESE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH'S INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.
WE'RE SEEING COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ENE OVERHEAD, WITH LOW
STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER
40S WERE COMMON IN CENTRAL KY, WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTHERN IN. DID GO AHEAD AND BOOST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING, WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST ALL DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING
WILL BE THINNER IN NATURE, SO PLAN IS TO HOLD ON TO THE FROST
ADVISORY. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE THIN CIRRUS, TEMPS NORTH OF THE
RIVER MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE 34-38 DEGREE RANGE CLOSER TO DAWN.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY, HOWEVER. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED VALLEYS AND TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO WARM FASTER. CLOUDS WILL MEAN STEADIER
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A LOT OF MID
50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 50S. A SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A STEADY WEST WIND TONIGHT, WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS LINGERING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018
ON WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITTING JUST TO THE CWA'S NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A NORTH
COMPONENT TO THE WIND, CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING ISN'T EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH FROST, BUT THURSDAY
MORNING COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE
BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MAKE IT TO THE MID
50S.
EARLY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICKLY
ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS SHIFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CWA BY MID-DAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THAT IS WHEN
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, CLEAR SKIES, AND A NORTH
WINDS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL REMAIN UNTIL A SURFACE HIGH
PASSES THE CWA EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SOUTH WIND ADVECTING
WARMER AIR THROUGH THE CWA AND RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018
FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS IS TAKING A LONG TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF A BWG
TO DVK LINE. VAST MAJORITY OF RH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING
CEILINGS AFTER 12Z. THE STRATUS WILL LINGER LONGER SOUTH AND EAST OF
BWG, TOWARD BNA AS WELL AS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. OTHERWISE,
VFR WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CLEAR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY IS VFR WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ032.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW
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