287
FXUS63 KLMK 220019
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
819 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM STARTING TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S)
* THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA
ON MONDAY WHERE A STRONG STORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ONLY A FEW SLIGHT
CHANGES MADE. POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WERE
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
STILL REMAINING NORTH OF I-64. WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE CWA, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 70S AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST CAUSING SOME LLWS FOR AVIATION PURPOSES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT NIGHTTIME COOLING AND
DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DOWN TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE CWA DUE TO THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
MAX TS NEARING 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S THANKS TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE MILD, WITH MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY STARTS OUT DRY, HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL BE
UPSTREAM WHERE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
SURVIVE INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DO
EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THIS COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR AREA FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS. 1.) WE'LL HAVE AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, AND THE SUBSIDENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY BE
RETREATING. 2.) THE OVERALL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT
FASTER, WHICH WOULD PUT ARRIVAL INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF TIME TO RE-DESTABILIZE IN THAT
SCENARIO. ALL OF THAT SAID, THIS COMPLEX COULD HAVE A DECENT COULD
POOL PUSHING IT INTO OUR AREA, AND GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
DO EXPECT THAT OUR ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SOME
CONTINUED GUSTS INTO THE REGION.
OUR UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT TO A ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
A POTENTIAL SECOND SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE OVERALL FASTER
TREND OF THIS SYSTEM, IT APPEARS WE MAY DRY OUT BY LATER SATURDAY.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS IN FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE ANOTHER DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 75 TO
80 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST.
MONDAY - TUESDAY...
MONDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE AN INTERESTING LOOK TO IT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND AN ASSOCIATED (LIKELY
SUB 1000 MB) SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. FROM A
PURE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS COULD BE
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUPERCELLS 21/00Z ECMWF UPPER WIND FIELD SHOW
EXIT REGION DYNAMICS OVERSPREADING A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR IN THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED SHEAR ALSO APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY A HEALTHY 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET RESPONDING
BENEATH THE FAVORABLE EXIT REGION DYNAMICS MENTIONED ABOVE. EXACT
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION, AND THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE ONSET
OCCURS A LITTLE TOO EARLY AND PERHAPS WE DON'T GET TO DESTABILIZE.
NEVERTHELESS, THE SETUP LOOKS OMINOUS, AND THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SPC DAY 7 OUTLOOK, NSSL ML SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IN THE 15-30% RANGE, AND THE LATEST AI MODEL SUITE
TRENDS SHOWING AN UPTICK IN POTENTIAL FROM YESTERDAY. RIGHT NOW,
JUST KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS DAY, BUT EARLY ON SEVERAL BOXES ARE
BEING CHECKED FOR A POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM TYPE OF A DAY.
FOR NOW, TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AND WOULD BE BACK IN THE POST-FRONTAL
REGIME. MUCH OF THIS DOES DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM,
SO NOT TOO TERRIBLY CONFIDENT JUST YET.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA
LASTING FROM ~03Z TO 12Z. ANY CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH MOSTLY CALMER WINDS PERSISTING
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR
HNB/SDF/LEX, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL PICK UP
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY, DECREASING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BEN
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