729
FXUS63 KLMK 111930
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY REGENERATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT BEING LOW.
* ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
CARRIES A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
* MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
ACROSS THE REGION, IT IS ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AS OF 19Z. THE LAST OF
THE LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NW, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
PRODUCE BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY, SOMEWHAT MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. STILL, HEAT INDICES AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOW 100S BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT CONTINUING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
BEGINS TO DIMINISH. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-65; HOWEVER, A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
BY THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING, A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE
AS USUAL AFTER SUNSET, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO
ROLL IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OUTRUN THE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH
STRONGER LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES I-65, WITH MANY AREAS EAST OF I-65 SEEING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS STORMS ARE WEAKENING,
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD,
WITH MANY AREAS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ITS PROGRESS SLOWING AS IT
MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S AND UPPER 50S WILL CURTAIL THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY REGENERATION OF STORMS, SO HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT
MAKES IT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR WHERE STORM CHANCES ARE TOMORROW. WITH
THE LATEST RUN OF HI-RES GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO
BOWLING GREEN. THESE LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA WOULD HAVE A
BRIEF WINDOW TO SEE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS BEGIN AND POST-FRONTAL SINKING MOTION MOVES IN. OTHERWISE,
TOMORROW SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MANY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE,
A RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE WILL BE. A STRONGER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND IF
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT, A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IN GENERAL, THE ECMWF/NAM TEND TOWARD A STRONGER
SOLUTION, WHILE THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. AI SEVERE CONVECTION
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ECMWF INITIAL CONDITIONS DOES HAVE AN ELEVATED
SEVERE RISK SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. FORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT, WITH MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN 0.25-0.75".
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SETTING UP WHAT SHOULD BE A COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN THERE OVER THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH SURFACE RIDGING FILLING IN OVER OUR REGION AS
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT START TO
THE WORKWEEK. MORNING LOWS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW 60, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA, PW VALUES WILL BE ON THE
LOWER SIDE, WITH LREF OUTPUTTING VALUES OF 1.00" OR LESS. A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (~15% MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY).
THE NEXT POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINMAKER WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS.
CURRENT LREF GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL BE WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAIN IMPACTS SHOULD COME FROM GUSTY SW WINDS,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 22-0Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE BASES AROUND 4K FT, AND WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. TONIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM NW TO SE, SO THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD BE AT HNB, WITH LOWER CHANCES AS THE FRONT
MOVES TOWARD SDF/LEX. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SW
TONIGHT TO THE W/NW TOMORROW, AS WELL AS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOWER
(LIKELY MVFR) CIGS FRIDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CSG
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