057
FXUS63 KLMK 272350
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
WEST OF I-65, BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
* TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DROPPED QUARTER
TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL THROUGH PORTIONS OF WARWICK AND DUBOIS
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY FORMED IN AN AREA OF ROBUST MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A 45-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET.
THESE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRONGER PLUME OF
INSTABILITY.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA REVEAL A PLUME
OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE CORE OF THIS INSTABILITY PLUME WILL STAY TO
OUR WEST OVER MO/IL/WESTERN KY, THE 40-50 KT SW LLJ WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING MID TO UPPER
60S SFC DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DESPITE EARLY
DAY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION, MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD
BE REALIZED WEST OF I-65 THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BE
IMPORTANT IF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEASTERN IL CAN DIVE
SOUTHEAST A BIT FASTER INTO PORTIONS OF SW INDIANA AND WEST-CENTRAL
KY. THINK WE MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO OUR NW CWA A BIT FASTER
BETWEEN 5-8 PM THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND HAIL WOULD ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MESSY AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE. MULTIPLE DISCRETE CELLS AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD
TEND TO EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY AHEAD OF A
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO GROW UPSCALE
BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A QLCS LATE TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY
BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF 60-70+ MPH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT. AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT, STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME
MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE (RESULTING IN A MUCH LOWER HAIL AND TORNADO
RISK). THE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CURVATURE WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A LOW-END TORNADO RISK THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION FROM NW TO SE EARLY TUE
MORNING. TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY OVERALL; SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 8 PM EDT TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
===ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT===
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SWING EAST ACROSS THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE UPSTREAM OVER THE OZARKS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS, WHICH THEN RACES EAST ALONG
THE REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL
KY. THE MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA IS AROUND 7-8 PM CDT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BOTH BE ON THE TABLE AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA (SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY) WILL SEE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF ANY APPROACHING MCS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WANING AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. A DEEPENING SFC WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
===DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK===
COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY MORNING.
MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY, WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A SMALL CHANCE (20%) FOR RAIN RETURNS BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DIPS IN FROM THE NORTH. A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN
IN IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS HNB AND SDF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, GRADUALLY
SPREADING TOWARD LEX/RGA/BWG LATER TONIGHT. WITHIN THESE STORMS,
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS, IFR/LIFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE. THE FINAL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
BETWEEN 05-09Z, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER. BEHIND THAT LINE OF STORMS, MVFR STRATUS SHOULD SET IN
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, WE'LL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG
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