134
FXUS63 KLMK 090500
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
* MID WEEK BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
IT IS A QUIET EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INDICATED ON LATEST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 02Z, WITH A FEW MID 70S READINGS IN URBAN
AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S AND CLEAR SKIES,
PATCHY FOG REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER TODAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WEST OF I-65 AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS ONGOING
CONVECTION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IN. THESE STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH A
POOL OF 1000-3000 J/KG CAPE EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TOWARD THE
WABASH VALLEY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IN SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT
THIS AREA OF HIGHER CAPE WILL CLOSE OFF AS STORMS PUSH EAST, AND
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED
AS IT CROSSES INTO OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES AFTER 07Z. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, ANY STORMS
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY PRESS TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
DAWN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER/RURAL AREAS AND UPPER
60S IN THE WARMER/URBAN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
THE REMNANT MCV IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. AS THIS MCV CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, SKIES WILL
STEADILY THIN AND LIFT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THIN UPPER SKY COVER WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED AMPLE RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE EFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT BRINGING LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WIDESPREAD 60S.
IN THE EARLY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING SOUTHEAST. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AROUND 12Z. TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING OVER THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. SBCAPE OVER THIS REGION WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
1200-1400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE ABOUT 30-35KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS FOR MARGINAL
ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE
WEAK, THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNSET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THEN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 80S AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO GROW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH URBAN AREAS IN THE LOW 60S.
VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY LATE WEEK, THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE MESSY WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION, RIDGING TO THE SOUTH, AND A WAVE FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE MAY DEEPEN SOME AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP IN
GULF MOISTURE BRINGING PWATS UP TO 2.0 INCHES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND ONGOING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AFFECTING KSDF AND POSSIBLY KBWG. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY MID-LATE MORNING, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS FORECAST, HAVE GENERALLY ATTEMPTED TO TIME IN
THINGS WITH A BIT MORE DETAIL. ACTUAL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
IT, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAF. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT VERY GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ
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