174
FXUS63 KLMK 140547
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
147 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* RECORD HEAT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY IS WARMEST IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF INCOMING RAIN.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT MIXED WITH STORMS AND A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS.
* RAIN CHANCES LINGER THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
*****************WARM AND SUNNY TODAY*********************
LEXINGTON AND LOUISVILLE HAVE OFFICIALLY BROKEN THE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT 89. OTHER DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
(BOWLING GREEN) ARE ON THE VERGE OF BEING BROKEN BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND BREAKING THOSE RECORD
HIGHS ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION ENTIRELY YET. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-
12 MPH PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BRINGING WARMER DEW POINTS FROM GULF
MOISTURE AND A PLUME OF MOIST AIR INTO LOUISVILLE'S AREA BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE ARE AGAIN
RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF BREAKING THE WARM MIN RECORDS RIGHT AROUND 70.
*************TOMORROW AND SEVERE POTENTIAL***************
TOMORROW BRINGS CLEAR SKIES FOR S CENTRAL KY AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS
FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AT DAWN. BY NOON, MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE
CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOLLOW
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIMING. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH, WE WILL SEE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION STARTED BY THOSE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER IS IN A MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY A WIND-DRIVEN THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, ALL OF THE CWA
IS IN AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE
BOWLING GREEN AREA, CENTRAL KY, THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THESE SEVERE RISKS
ARE BASED ON THE HEAVY MOISTURE-LOADING OCCURRING, WITH PWATS IN THE
2-2.5" RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH OF THE WIND-DRIVEN SEVERE WILL
LIKELY BE AS THESE STORMS COLLAPSE; THERE ISN'T ENOUGH SHEAR TO HOLD
A CELL TOGETHER, SO STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW DUE TO SEASONALLY-HIGH
INSTABILITY, DUMP RAIN, AND THEN COLLAPSE IN A SUMMER-LIKE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
ALONG THE FRONT, SO EXPECT HEAVY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL VALUES (GENERALLY .5-1.5" WITH LOCAL VALUES IN THE 2-4"),
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A FEW OCCURENCES OF WINDS IN THE 50-60
MPH RANGE TOMORROW.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CWA, BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN INTENSITY AND MORE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
REGION. IN REGIONS THAT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM STRATIFORM-TYPE
RAIN, FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY MORNING, S
INDIANA WILL SEE RAIN THE LONGEST AND CLIPS A MARGINAL SEVERE
OUTLOOK FOR THE MOMENT. THIS IS AGAIN LIKELY WIND-DRIVEN AND WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT FASTER
THAN NOON, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE BUT IS HIGHLY
UNCONFIDENT AT THE MOMENT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
FOR S KENTUCKY AND LOW 80S FOR S INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY, AGAIN
DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER MUGGY DAY, WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S IN S KENTUCKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S.
*****************GREAT WEEKEND AHEAD***********************
FRIDAY BREAKS OUT THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID-60S; A COLD FRONT MAKES IT'S WAY THROUGH, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE AND SHOWERS WITH IT. POST-FRONTAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS PUSH THE UPPER-30S AND LOWER-40S MARK, WITH FROST IN
AN ISOLATED VALLEY ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AS WINDS CALM AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE CRISP, SUNNY HIGHS IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S
AND NIGHTS PERFECT FOR BONFIRE SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE LOW- TO MID-
40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK STARTS TO WARM UP TOWARD THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50 DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH AS A PRIMARY LINE FROM NW TO SE. SDF-BWG WILL RECEIVE THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRST THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS OF 25-30KTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN DOWNPOURS BRIEFLY BEFORE SHOWERS OR DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY LINE OF STORMS,
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A SHIFT OF WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW TO N
WILL MOVE IN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVC CEILINGS SLOWLY DROP IN
THE EVENING TO LOW-END MVFR AND LIKELY IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPH
AVIATION...BKF
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