605
FXUS63 KLMK 250850
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DREARY, BUT WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS, SOME STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
* TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH COLDER
WEATHER LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO, ON
THE NOSE OF A 35 KT WSW LLJ. A WEAK, WAVY SFC BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
THROUGH CENTRAL MO/IL/IN, SW OH, AND NE KY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY, BUT THE VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SCOURED OUT LAST NIGHT
BY INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA.
HOWEVER, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO SINK BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BLANKET THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT,
YIELDING MURKY WEATHER WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRENGTHENING INVERSION ABOVE 5
KFT TODAY, WITH SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SHALLOW MOISTURE
WILL KEEP QPF QUITE LIGHT, AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S, WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 70 IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.
ANOTHER HEALTHY SW LLJ WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MS AND
OH VALLEYS, PROMOTING CONTINUED WARM WEATHER. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN IN AND THE KY BLUEGRASS REGION. THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IN/OH ON FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL EXHIBIT A LARGER SW TO NE GRADIENT THAN NORMAL DUE
TO THE OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. FOR EXAMPLE, LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NEAR MADISON IN AND PARIS
KY. MEANWHILE, LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN KY. EVEN WITH
CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S, WITH AROUND 70 F IN SOUTHERN KY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A
DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN A WAA PATTERN. THE STRONGEST FORCING
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE AT A
MINIMUM. THE OVERALL RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED, BUT A GUSTY BAND OF SHOWERS CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. RAIN
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE WINDING DOWN MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
AFTER UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 20S. THE COLD, DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
20S MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY NOT
CRACK THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VERY COMPLEX FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORECAST, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER THAN USUAL EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM. CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY VFR
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT SOME PATCHY FOG IS CAUSING SOME ISSUES
AT A COUPLE TERMINALS, INCLUDING SDF. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 08-12Z. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS, INCLUDING WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR, ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SAGS BACK SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN IN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IF
THE IFR WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS BWG LATER TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KT OUT OF THE SW THIS MORNING, WITH
WINDS VEERING N/NE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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