801
FXUS63 KLMK 060639
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
239 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRYING
TREND ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY LATER THIS MORNING,
WITH LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.
* WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
AND MID 60S, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE EXIT REGION OF A 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR, AND THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS
PEAKING. MEANWHILE, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS BISECTING THE CWA, AND WILL QUICKLY LIFT
OFF TO THE NE TOWARD DAWN, STEADILY PULLING THE FRONT SE THROUGH THE
REST OUR AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO WORK EASTWARD AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
GIVEN THIS SETUP, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY BE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THROUGH 09 OR 10Z. THERE HAD BEEN A VERY
THIN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT TRIED TO NOSE INTO OUR FAR SW CWA, BUT
THIS IS NOW BEING PINCHED OFF AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT STILL THINGS
HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED GIVEN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THE HIGHEST
GUST HAS BEEN AROUND 30 MPH SO FAR, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE'VE ALSO BEEN HANDLING THE RAINFALL OKAY SO FAR AS INTERMITTENT
BREAKS AND OVERALL MANAGEABLE RATES HAVE NOT CAUSED ANY PROBLEMS TO
THIS POINT. WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA SEEMS TO BE THE
WINNER SO FAR, WITH 24 HR MRMS TOTALS AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST KY MESONET SITE IN OUR KY COUNTIES SO FAR IS TRIMBLE WITH
1.15" OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET CORE PUSH EAST OF OUR CWA
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL HANG ONTO SOME POPS ACROSS OUR SE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY SHOULD BE
DRY. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF RESURGENCE AND NORTHWARD TREND IN LIGHT
RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
KY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS THANKS TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE WORKING OVER THE AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN'T REAL HIGH WITH THAT. OTHERWISE, WE TREND COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE UNDER N WINDS AND HEAVY CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WHICH IS
10 TO 15 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. LOW TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY AND
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FOG SIGNAL TONIGHT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA IF WE STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY, AND THEN CLEAR
OUT LATE WITHOUT ANY CHANCE TO MIX THE BL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COULD BE A
SET UP FOR FOG. DATA ISN'T REALLY HITTING HARD, BUT THE PATTERN HAS
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA AS IT SLIDES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SETTLES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL SETUP
WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. AFTER THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 60S (ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL), GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHILLY TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME COOLER MID OR UPPER 30S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 37 DEGREES ONLY SIT IN THE 10-20% RANGE ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR FOR THE MOMENT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SOME
LATE SEASON FROST POTENTIAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY DO RECOVER A BIT, BUT
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY EVENING...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PARENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
LOOKS TO MAINLY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER CHANCES, WITH
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IS PRETTY DECENT
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO NON-
EXISTENT. IF THERE IS ANY INSTABILITY, IT APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED SO
NOT CONCERNED AT THIS TIME.
WE SHOULD BE IN THE SUBSIDENT WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THE
SECOND PART OF SATURDAY, SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS HERE WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EARLY SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, FINE DETAILS ARE STILL
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
OF SPECIFIC FEATURES. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES. ONE
DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER EJECTS OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS PHASING OCCURS TO
LATE TO AFFECT HOW THE SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION AS WE SHOULD GET
INFLUENCE FROM MAINLY THE NORTHERN WAVE. THAT BEING SAID, WE'LL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS BECAUSE AN EARLIER PHASE WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER
SYSTEM, AND PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW, IT
APPEARS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW
MUCH TIME WE HAVE TO DESTABILIZE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, THE ECMWF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE LOOKS A BIT DISJOINTED BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW LATER ON SUNDAY, AND AN ALREADY DEPARTING
FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TOO
EARLY TO FOCUS IN ON THIS AS TIMING COULD CHANGE, BUT RIGHT NOW NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH EVERYTHING LINING UP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. POTENTIAL IS THERE THOUGH IF WE DO GET THINGS TO LINE UP.
MONDAY - TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR THIS STRETCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE PEAKING
OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AS A RESULT, HAVE PREVAILING SHRA WITH TEMPO
TSRA AT BWG/SDF/LEX/RGA UNTIL 09/10Z. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR VIS WITH
OCCASIONAL DIPS INTO THE 2-3SM RANGE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE COLD
FRONT IS ALSO PASSING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, SO
EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE NW WITH STEADY WINDS 5-10 MPH THEREAFTER. LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL OCCUR FIRST AT HNB/SDF/LEX FIRST
AND LIKELY BE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, AND THEN BWG/RGA BY EARLY
EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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