368  
FXUS63 KLMK 291020  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
620 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY.  
 
* LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, BUT  
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
EXPECT TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG, MAINLY IN AREAS  
THAT HAD THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS  
POSSIBLE IN SUCH LOCATIONS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VIS  
HAVE BEEN NOTED YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, AND LIKELY HANDLE FOG  
AREAS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS, AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT  
BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY.  
 
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING PLENTY  
OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMP  
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE, EVEN IF IT TAKES A BIT LONGER  
TO GET THERE. LOOK FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP, PERHAPS WITH A  
BIT LESS COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED STORMS  
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR, BUT THIS ENVIRONMENT IS JUICY ENOUGH FOR  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND PERHAPS A PULSE WIND  
THREAT.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS INSTABILITY  
IS LOST. FOR MONDAY WE'LL HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING  
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND STARTING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT  
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND WHILE SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY IT REMAINS  
FAIRLY WEAK. SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
FOR DAY 2, WHICH ON THE SURFACE MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. THAT SAID,  
EVEN IF CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED THE INSTABILITY ALONE  
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A PULSE WIND THREAT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY, ALLOWING DEW  
POINTS TO DROP AND CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE COMFORTABLE WED-THU.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY  
SUNNY.  
 
INDEPENDENCE DAY - NEXT WEEKEND...  
 
UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA,  
ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE  
ZONAL FLOW AGAIN. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL, AND HUMIDITY  
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON  
INDEPENDENCE DAY, BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. PRECIP  
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
FOG IS NOT REALLY IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME,  
THOUGH BWG IS HINTING THAT VIS MAY DROP. THE WINDOW FOR RESTRICTIONS  
TO VIS IS RAPIDLY CLOSING, SO WILL INITIALIZE VFR. HNB HAS HAD JUST  
ENOUGH BREEZE TO LIFT THE MOISTURE INTO AN IFR STRATUS CIG. THAT  
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z.  
 
OTHERWISE THE TAFS ARE LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THE LAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS, AS SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.  
WILL COVER IT WITH A PROB30 AND INCLUDE IFR VIS WITH THE HEAVIEST  
RAIN. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT EACH  
OF THE TERMINALS. AFTER SUNSET THE INSTABILITY IS LOST, WHICH WILL  
LEAVE US HIGH AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RAS  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...RAS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page