573  
FXUS63 KLMK 020813  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
 
* BEST CHANCE FOR .5" TO 1" OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN KY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
* A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE  
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOL AND  
DRY AIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
TODAY, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE  
MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE POOLED  
MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1") OVER THE CWA FROM THE INVERTED SURFACE  
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL REMAIN  
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
STILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN  
LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FADE  
EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MORE CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN  
KENTUCKY WITH CLEARER SKIES FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER.  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN, AREAS THAT  
CLEAR COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, IT'S LOOKING  
INCREASING LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCE COULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA,  
REMAINING IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WE ARE KEEPING LOW CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CWA'S EASTERN BORDER, INCLUDING THE EASTERN  
BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS, BUT MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE A DAY WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE  
AND DRY. HIGHS REMAIN IN THAT LOW TO MID 80S RANGE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK  
TO BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MOST OF THE CWA  
COULD RECEIVE AROUND 0.25" OR RAIN, BUT HIGH AMOUNTS AND CHANCES  
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WITH THE  
LOWEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, NEAR BOWLING  
GREEN. GIVEN THE EARLY ARRIVE OF THE FRONT, MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK  
VERY STABLE ONCE AGAIN, SO SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED.  
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVING  
SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE EURO SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE THE  
SLOWER SOLUTION, BRINING THE FRONT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE  
SOUTHERN INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY SATURDAY,  
BUT THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER, ARRIVING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. NOW  
THAT THEY BOTH HAVE PRECIPITATION WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REACHING  
TO PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.6-1.75". RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LOW,  
BUT THIS COULD INCREASE IN COMING FORECASTS WHEN AGREEMENT IS  
BETTER.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON  
SATURDAY AND LAST AT LEAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
RETURN TO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HEADING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
LIKELY TO BE NEAR OR IMPACT THE TAF SITES. DRY LOW LEVELS AND  
ELEVATED CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KDW  
LONG TERM...KDW  
AVIATION...KDW  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IN Page
Main Text Page