626
FXUS63 KLMK 170708
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH
IS EXPECTED.
* WEDNESDAY MORNING, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION. IN
THE AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN.
* TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
READINGS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S/80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND MAYBE SOME STORMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO SEEING GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN
THE DGZ AND IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNTIL THE TROUGH SWING NORTHEAST,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THOUGH WITH LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S, WE WILL SEE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 30S.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES SE OVER
THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 20S. A
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WAA. LOOKING
TO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH IN THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
REBOUND TO THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND THE LOW 50S OVER THE
FAR SW AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAA, AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. SOME SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY SEE 80 ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG
LLJ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MAY BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS. WILL MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
COMING FORECAST PERIODS, AS LREF CLUSTERING SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE FORCING. EFI SHOWS A WEAK SIGNAL (THOUGH THE SAMPLE PERIOD
IS WITHIN SEVERE SEASON, SO THIS IS LIKELY MORE OF A MODEST SIGNAL)
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL DROP BACK DOWN
TO THE MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BRING MODERATELY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND 2-4SM VIS. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER MID-MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE FAR BLUEGRASS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL DISSIPATE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING,
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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