698
FXUS63 KLMK 241940
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
* WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF MAJOR IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED EARLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
- NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES WITH HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION BEING FARTHER NORTH CUTS INTO SNOW AND SLEET
TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL KY WHERE "BATTLE ZONE" IS MOST INTENSE.
- ICE TOTALS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KY WHERE
MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOWLING
GREEN, KY TO RICHMOND, KY LINE. SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
.25" ALONG THE WESTERN KY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUR WINTER STORM HAS STARTED ACROSS THE AREA, ALBEIT SLOWLY AT
ONSET. VISIBILITIES HAVE STEADILY DROPPED BELOW 1/2SM
VISIBILITY, AND T/TD SPREADS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SHRINK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING AS
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE WARM NOSE, AND HOW MUCH SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN CUT INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, AFFECTING AMOUNTS OF SNOW SLEET, AND
LIKELY INCREASING ICE AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THE 24/12Z DATA
HAS REMAINED WITH A SPLIT IN THE DATA BETWEEN A MUCH
MILDER/AGGRESSIVE WARM NOSE OFFERED BY NAM12/3K NAM, AND THE
COLDER SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE GFS. 24/12Z HRRR DATA SEEMS TO
BE A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO, AND DISPLAYS A VERY
SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW CUTOFF, AND THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. LIKE
THE IDEA OF TRENDING THINGS TOWARD THIS GENERAL IDEA. WORRIED
ABOUT BIG ICE IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY!
THE SETUP REMAINS THE SAME WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SW ENERGY
WILL BEGIN EJECTING INTO MEXICO TODAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM MID AND UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL FEATURE
WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATES OVER OUR AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW LEVEL
JETTING STEADILY RAMPS UP OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL INTO OUR
AREA. GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
TO OUR NORTH, THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
INITIALLY TODAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO LATER THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT, THE DEEP AND
SLOPED FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER OUR AREA WITH LOW
LEVEL JETTING CONTINUING TO INCREASE, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
CONTINUING TO CRANK OVER THE AREA. THIS IS THE TIME WHEN SNOW TOTALS
WILL START TO ADD UP A BIT AS HREF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECENT
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1" PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES. THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ, SOME "LESS STABLE"
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS CONFIRMED BY EPV VALUES GOING SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE, AND PERSISTENCE OF BANDING IN MORE OF A W-E ORIENTED
DIRECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE
MORE VERTICAL THETA SURFACES WHICH INDICATE WSS/CSI TYPE OF LESS
STABLE AIR, THINK WE COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WHERE IT IS
SNOWING/SLEETING HARDER IN THE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES.
IT IS ALSO LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAT THE 850-700MB
WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS FORECAST. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOST PROMINENT ACROSS OUR SE CWA 06-18Z SUNDAY, STEADY
WARM ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO
SLEET AT FIRST, AND THEN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. MAY
EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY NEAR THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION AS SURFACE TEMPS TRY TO SLIDE INTO THE MID 30S FOR
A BIT. HOW FAR NORTH THE SLEET/SNOW LINE MAKES IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE DATA, BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL STOP
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PARKWAYS AND THE OHIO RIVER WITH P-TYPE
STAYING MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW NORTH OF THIS LINE, AND MORE SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. AS A RESULT, OUR
MAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTENSE GRADIENT IN TOTALS ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL CWA WHERE THIS "BATTLE ZONE" BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE WILL TAKE PLACE. GIVEN THE RESIDENCE TIME OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH, EXPECTED ICE TOTALS HAVE STEADILY GONE UP OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS, AND THINKING THAT MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WHERE .5" TO .75" AMOUNTS SEEM
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BOWLING GREEN TO RICHMOND, KY LINE. THE .25" LINE ALSO
HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AND WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE PARKWAYS NOW
WITH VALUES QUICKLY TAPERING NORTH OF THAT LINE.
AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH SUNDAY, THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL
BECOME "COUPLED" AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MEXICO. THIS COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS VERY
DIVERGENT ALOFT AND WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT
TRAVERSES OUR AREA. SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SE CWA, BUT
THE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME LIQUID, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET P-TYPES IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY, COLD
ADVECTION WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD THROUGH ALL LEVELS WITH P-TYPE
GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END AS ALL SNOW AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. WON'T
ADD A WHOLE LOT MORE SNOW TO END THE EVENT SUNDAY EVENING, BUT AN
ADDITIONAL COATING OR SO SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. FROM THERE, THE
BITTER COLD MOVES IN WITH CONTINUED IMPACTS FROM THE STORM EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK THANKS TO THE PROLONGED COLD.
AMOUNTS AND P-TYPE SUMMARY:
HEAVY SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAYS. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS,
STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS
UP TO A HALF AN INCH. LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN OR EASTERN
KENTUCKY COULD SEE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, MAINLY SNOW,
HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
MONDAY - SATURDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INITIALLY UNREMARKABLE NW FLOW ALOFT TAKE
HOLD OF OUR PATTERN EARLY TO MID WEEK. THIS WILL BE A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
LOW AND MID TEENS ON MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP BELOW
ZERO TO 5 BELOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IF WIND CHILLS GET INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE
WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER
DROPPING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH OUR AREA. WON'T TAKE MUCH MOISTURE AT ALL WITH VERY HIGH
SNOW RATIOS TO SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FEATURE SO FAR AS IT HAS BEEN THERE AND IS SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS NOW.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO BE BITTERLY COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 0 AND HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT ANOTHER LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT
WITH OTHER SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW. WHAT IS CONFIDENT
IS THAT COLD PERSISTS. THE FIRST CHANCE TO POTENTIALLY GET ABOVE
FREEZING MAY NOT COME UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE REGION, WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE TODAY, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITING VIS TO LESS THAT 1SM AT
TIMES, AND LOWERING CIGS TO BELOW 2K FT. IMPACTS CONTINUE TOMORROW,
BUT WITH VARYING P-TYPES. SEE BELOW FOR SPECIFIC TERMINAL
DISCUSSIONS.
SDF: ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW RATES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH SNOW
TOMORROW MORNING.
LEX: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN BY THE OVERNIGHT. A SWITCH OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW AFTER 12Z.
BWG: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN SWITCH OVER THE FREEZING RAIN
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HNB: ALL SNOW, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
RGA: SIMILAR FORECAST TO LEX, THOUGH SLIGHTLY EARLIER SWITCH OVER
TIMES. FREEZING RAIN BEFORE 12Z POSSIBLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ SUNDAY
NIGHT TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KYZ023>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ SUNDAY
NIGHT TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-
084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP
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