774
FXUS63 KLMK 281918
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
* DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
USHERING IN MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS OF THIS
WRITING, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND HIGH WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER TN AND THIS WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE, BEFORE UPPER SKIES
BEGIN TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL PREVENT EFFICIENT COOLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE EAST
AND UPPER 60S, POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH 70, ELSEWHERE.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE EAST AND
RUN INTO THE STRONG RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS PLACED IN THE REGION
WHERE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES MEET. THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO DEGRADE
THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT EASTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS, FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL.
THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE WARM SECTOR, WHERE AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT (1.5-1.8 INCH PWATS) AND INSTABILITY (2500+
J/KG). ADDITIONALLY, 25-35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE AREA, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO HELP THE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS.
THE BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING WILL LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
IN THE MORNING DECAYING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IN THE MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE BOTH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. IF ONE
STORM FORMS AND PRODUCE A DECENT OUTFLOW, THIS COULD THEN LEAD TO
MORE STORM FORMATION OVER TIME. DUE TO THIS, CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON
STORMS IS LOW. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, THE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BRINGING STORMS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY A WINDS AND HAIL THREAT. THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN EVENING STORMS, GIVEN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE
FRONT AND STORMS PRESS SOUTHEAST, INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH
NIGHTFALL AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY. ONE BUST POTENTIAL
FOR THE EVENING CONVECTION IS IF THE AFTERNOON STORMS BECOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AND THE ENVIRNOMENT GETS WORKED OVER, THIS COULD LEAD TO
SEVERE CHANCES DISSIPATING QUICKER WITH THE EVENING ROUND.
ALL IN ALL, IT IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE MOVING PARTS
THAT IMPACT THE FOLLOWING EVENT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM ABOUT 1PM EST - 11PM EST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE EVENING WAVE OF STORMS, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH STRONG STORMS AND MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
===== WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT =====
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT BRIEFLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA AND PIVOT INTO A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY TALL AND SKINNY INSTABILITY PROFILES, WITH WEAK SHEAR BUT
HIGH PWATS. WE COULD SEE PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.4-1.5", WHICH WOULD BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMO FROM BNA. SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
EFFICIENCY RAIN RATES AND POTENTIALLY SLOWER MOVING STORM MOTIONS.
DUE TO THIS COMBINATION, SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WAA REGIME TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH ADDITIONAL WAA SHOWERS, AND MILD TEMPS IN THE 60S. SOME THUNDER
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LINGERS, BUT LOW LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR
STRONGER STORMS.
===== THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
ANOTHER WAVE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SFC LOW THAT
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY MORNING
UNDERNEATH A LLJ, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE STALLED THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EVEN MORE NORTH OF THE REGION.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH TEMPS HITTING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S,
ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S, SFC
DESTABILIZATION UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION CONCERNS, WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UPWARDS OF 35 KTS, HOWEVER, MAINLY LOOKING AT A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE
TO LOOK MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, SO TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT, BUT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE DETAILS WITH LOTS OF WEATHER
TO GET THROUGH BEFORE WE GET TO THAT POINT. WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MINDFUL OF ALREADY ELEVATED RAINFALL TOTALS BEING AGITATED BY MORE
STRONG CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. ISOLATED FLOOD CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG OR PUSHING EAST OF I-65. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH, THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE
AXIS HANGING UP OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY, BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE GET A CLEAN TROUGH
AXIS PASSAGE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN WE CAN FINALLY
TRANSITION TO A DRY FORECAST.
===== WEEKEND OUTLOOK =====
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FANTASTIC WEATHER FORECAST. SFC FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S WILL BE GREAT. THE MODEST TEMPS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL PROVIDE US WITH VFR WEATHER AND A SOUTH BREEZE TODAY. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF THIS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER TN. TONIGHT HNB/SDF WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
RESULTING IN BORDERLINE LLWS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SHOWER
CHANCES AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TOMORROW AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...SRW
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