500
FXUS63 KLMK 231749
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1249 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD, BLUSTERY WEATHER FOR TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 30S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS 20-25MPH
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S LATER TODAY.
* A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
EAST OF I-65, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
* TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A MESSY WEATHER
PATTERN IN STORE. NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING SOUTH AND ON THE OUTER EXTENT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER,
AS THE DEEP LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST, DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN
AND CUT OFF OUR SNOW CHANCES. WE'LL REMAIN UNDER DEEP NW FLOW
THROUGH TODAY THOUGH, WHICH KEEPS A STRONG CAA PRESENCE AND COLD
TEMPS. TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S, AND
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-30S LATER TODAY.
IN ADDITION TO THESE COLD TEMPS, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
QUITE STRONG ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH KEEPS BREEZY NNW WINDS GOING.
GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE THOSE RELAX BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE BLUSTERY. WIND
CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS,
AND WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE NNW FLOW THROUGH THE REGION, THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH COVERAGE
IN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DRIER. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES, SO COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW STREAKS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE HRRR HINTS AT THIS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS
EVENING, BUT COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES EARLIER. HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT, WE'LL HAVE CLEARING SKYCOVER, RELAXING WINDS, AND COLD
TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
===== TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY =====
WE'LL REMAIN UNDER STRONG CAA TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP RELAX OUR WINDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, SO WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH
FROM THE AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AGAIN, BUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS TIME, LEADING TO
INCREASING WAA. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE OUR TEMPS AFTER A COLD
START, WITH MID TO UPPER-40S EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF INDIANA
AND OHIO. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY PERIOD. WE REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AS WE'LL AWAIT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAIN. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO
THE 50S UNDER WAA FLOW.
===== WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY =====
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO OR NORTHERN
TX. THIS SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. WE'LL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE IN
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THICK CLOUD COVER AND SFC DEWPOINTS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY POTENTIAL, BUT
COULD SEE AN INCREASED AMOUNT OF SHEAR AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS CLOSE
TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF
THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL DEPARTURE BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
BEEN WITHIN 1-2 INCHES FOR THIS RAIN EVENT, WITH THE HIGH AMOUNTS
FAVORED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE KY PKWYS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A DRIER END TO THE WEEK. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AGAIN, THOUGH WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.
SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY, INTRODUCING A WARMER RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION, AND TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
LOW RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH,
WHICH COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL. APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN
FOR NOW, THOUGH COULD SEE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS COOL. THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW, AND WE
LIKELY WILL SEE CHANGES TO THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
NW WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL DISSIPATE EVENTUALLY LATER
IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING TO EASTERN LOCATIONS ONCE THE
SNOW FLURRIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLOWLY RAISING CLOUD CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICK AROUND AND A SW WIND
BUILDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BF
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