501
FXUS63 KLMK 040752
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND
NEAR 80.
* ADDITIONAL GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ACROSS MO/IL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO IN/KY. THIS EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DPVA UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH A 45KT LLJ THAT IS
PRODUCING A STRONG WAA WING EXTENDING FROM ST. LOUIS TO LOUISVILLE.
STORM MOTION IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE 700MB JET, WHICH IS ORIENTED
NW TO SE FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL KY. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS IL WILL FOLLOW THIS JET ORIENTATION,
AND WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
AS THESE STORMS WORK DOWNSTREAM AND INTO OUR AREA. SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING, THOUGH A STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
KEEP ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY ALOFT, RESULTING IN ANY STORMS TO BE
ELEVATED.
SFC OBS DO SHOW RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AROUND 15-20 DEGREES THIS MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENT OF THIS DRY LAYER, WHICH SHOWS A DEEP DRY
LAYER UP TO 700MB THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A THUNDERSTORM MOVED
ACROSS MEADE COUNTY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, AND THE KY MESONET ONLY
RECORDED 0.04" OF PRECIP. SO DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY IMPACTING THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP REACHING THE SFC, BUT AS WE SEE MORE ACTIVITY
APPROACH THE AREA, TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE MEASURABLE PRECIP. BEST PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THIS MORNING ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND MAJORITY OF CENTRAL KY, WITH
OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
THE LLJ CORE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY, WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS TO
THE NORTH. THE BAND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH OF I-64 LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A DRIER TREND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30MPH AS A RESULT. SW WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE WAA REGIME, AND WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BECAUSE OF IT.
BY TONIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG WAA WILL KEEP US VERY MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
===== TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ======
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO
ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PRESENT GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. AN EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHED THE AREA ON TUESDAY, THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN, RESULTING
IN A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LEADING TO
RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 45KTS
IN THE 850MB LAYER. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE OUR MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTOR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING A LINE OF GUSTY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
BE PRESENT, THOUGH QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS DUE TO THE LLJ
CORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE A HEALTHY INVERSION TO KEEP
ANY STORMS ELEVATED, WHICH WOULD BE GOOD GIVEN THE 0-3KM CURVATURE
IN THE HODOGRAPHS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SEEING OVERNIGHT
PRECIP ACTIVITY, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100%.
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIP, THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL INCREASE OUR PWATS TO OVER 1.3", WITH ROUGHLY A 60-90% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 1.4" (90TH PERCENTILE OF BNA SOUNDING CLIMO) ACROSS
CENTRAL KY. WE CAN EXPECT A BROAD 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE COMES IN
AROUND 2-2.5" OF RAINFALL, WHICH COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS DUE TO ANY LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THIS QPF WILL BE A
WELCOME SIGHT GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF KENTUCKY IS EXPERIENCING AT LEAST MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT,
THOUGH JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH IS IN
SEVERE (D2) AND EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, FIRST ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES BY 06Z, THEN
PUSHING EAST OF I-65 BEFORE 09Z. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF ALMOST
THE ENTIRE AREA 12Z WEDNESDAY, BUT LOOKS TO GET SLIGHTLY HUNG UP
ACROSS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FORECAST
HIGHS A BIT TRICKY IN OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TOO,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL DRIER TREND FOR AREAS WEST OF I-
65.
===== THURSDAY - NEXT WEEKEND =====
WE REMAIN UNDER GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST
CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. OTHERWISE, DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR
SDF AND LEX. WITH THE LLJ MOVING OVER THE AREA, SOME LLWS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT BWG BETWEEN 08-14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE'LL
SEE SFC WIND GUSTS TODAY UP TO 25KTS. THESE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
RELAX BY THIS EVENING, WITH PRECIP CHANCES LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE I-64 TERMINALS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page