689
FXUS63 KLMK 010556
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1256 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA.
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. MOST LIKELY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE AROUND 1-3". BRIEF PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ARE POSSIBLE, AND A GLAZE OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.
* IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS NEW 00Z GUIDANCE WAS COMING IN THIS
EVENING AND LOOKING BACK OVER THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF GETTING 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER, LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS RANGING 70-80 PERCENT. WHILE
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF
WAA MONDAY NIGHT, PHASING/DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SFC LOW ACROSS
SE KY, AND POTENTIAL SNOW BAND DEVELOPMENT, STILL FELT THE IMPACTS
OF THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW, NEAR TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WARRANTED A HEADLINE. WILL HAVE
MORE IN THE MAIN AFD WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION, WINDS SHOULD SETTLE, WITH BREEZY W/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AND VEERING TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE
AREA HAS SEEN CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TODAY, A LARGE STRATUS LAYER IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING, CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND
NORTHERN KY, WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PARKWAYS.
TONIGHT, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A MIXTURE OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE MORE
CLEARING OCCURS, LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KY, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S, WITH UPPER TEENS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WHERE THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A COLD START
TO MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.
MONDAY...
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY WILL FEATURE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WILL END
UP OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND BUILDS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING SW FLOW INTO THE TN AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY, PROVIDING A
SOURCE OF RICHER MOISTURE. A PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75-1", SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING WINTER WEATHER...
BY MONDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS TN WITHIN THE WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. AT THE SAME
TIME, A BAND OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WHILE THERE WILL
INITIALLY BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND BETTER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL COLLIDE OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CROSS-SECTION PROFILES SUPPORT THE THINKING OF
HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
AND THETA-E PROFILES SHOWING RELATIVELY WEAK STABILITY WITHIN THE
DGZ.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITHIN THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION,
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO MANY AREAS SEEING RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE; HOWEVER, LITTLE MORE THAN A GLAZE OF ICE IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, AND MARGINAL GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT
ICING ON ROADWAYS. ONCE WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW, COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH WET-BULBING EFFECTS WITHIN ZONES OF
STRONG LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. THE AREAS WHICH SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
THE ONES WHICH HAVE THE GREATEST OVERLAP BETWEEN FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS, WITH ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO
3" LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDING SETS UP. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS,
LESS THAN 1" IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH
BOOM/BUST POTENTIAL IN BANDING-TYPE EVENTS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
GIVEN THE LATEST HI-RES RUNS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+" SNOW INCREASES
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND
STILL BEING ~30 HOURS AWAY FROM THE START OF THIS EVENT, WE'RE GOING
TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER, IF CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDS HOLD, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PARKWAYS. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY, THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE GREATEST WINTER PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAWN TUESDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO NOTABLE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EVEN IF LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE REALIZED GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING,
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WHILE CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD DURING THE MORNINGS, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW-TO-MID 40S AS WE GET WEAK RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF, SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE AS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
EXTRA CLOUDS WITH COLD FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS NW FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE'LL EXPERIENCE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, PULLING A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE
TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS. THE COLD AIR SOURCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AS SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY WEATHER AS THE ONE TOMORROW
NIGHT, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME AND POTENTIAL SHIFTS
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS WEEK FOR WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES AFTER FRIDAY, THOUGH A GENERAL SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND IS
FOUND IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE. A MODEST WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND SHOULD MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT THESE SYSTEMS END UP BEING
MOSTLY/ALL RAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FROM SDF TO LEX. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SO SOME SIGN THAT THIS BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS MAYBE
BREAKING SO WENT AHEAD AND IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TOWARDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THANKS TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUT AS THE NEXT PAIR OF SYSTEMS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THAT IS WHEN WE
WILL SEE OUR MAIN IMPACTS. WINTRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WITH
INITIALLY SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AS RAIN, RAIN AND SNOW
AND POTENTIALLY ALL SNOW. I DO THINK EARLY ON WE HAVE A PERIOD OF
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT AFTER 06Z WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THIS WILL BRING IFR CIG AND VIS POTENTIALLY LIFR. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE PRETTY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053-
061.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BTN
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