525  
FXUS63 KLMK 201120  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
620 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
..FRIGID WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
 
 
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PIVOTED NE OVER OHIO AND WEST  
VIRGINIA, GRADUALLY PULLING THE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND WITH IT. AS  
THE STRONGEST FORCING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF  
THE BAND OVER LEXINGTON AND THE REST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION HAS  
WEAKENED. STILL, LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH  
10Z THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES WHERE SNOW CONTINUES;  
OTHERWISE, WILL CANCEL THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHORTLY. ROADS  
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SLICK THROUGH THE MORNING, AND SOME  
SECONDARY ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SNOW COVERED INTO THE DAYTIME.  
USE EXTRA CAUTION IF GETTING OUT THIS MORNING. TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE  
AND SNOW.  
 
SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF SUNSHINE, WHICH WILL  
CERTAINLY ASSIST ROAD CREWS. BUT EXTEND AND DURATION OF THIS  
CLEARING IS UNCLEAR. A N-S LAKE-EFFECT STRATUS BAND OFF LAKE  
MICHIGAN WILL CREEP INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA. THEN, MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE  
TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE 6-10 PM CST TIME  
FRAME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN.  
 
THE MAIN THING TO KNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THAT IT'S QUITE COLD.  
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN OUR  
NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW  
TEENS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP, HOWEVER, AND WIND CHILLS LOOK TO  
STAY IN THE 0 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE MOST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE  
VERY COLD WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS. BUT A STEADY 5  
MPH WIND WILL HELP KEEP THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM  
CRASHING TOO MUCH. HAVE GONE FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM 4-  
16 DEGREES, COLDEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING DRY  
WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON  
TUESDAY RESULTING IN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY  
WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A GRADIENT WITH READINGS IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION  
IN THE LOWER 20S AND MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO  
CENTRAL KY. THE WARMEST AREA LOOKS TO BE OUR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS  
TOWARD BOWLING GREEN WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 32-33. ANOTHER  
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TEENS  
FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION. LOWS OF 20-25  
WILL BE FOUND SOUTH AND WEST OF A LOUISVILLE TO SOMERSET LINE.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND  
NORTHERN KY. ACROSS SOUTHERN KY, HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 40S  
TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON  
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO  
THE MID-UPPER 30S WITH A COLD RAIN FALLING. SURFACE COLD FRONT  
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SO HIGHS  
WOULD BE EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE 40S, WITH  
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S BY EVENING. PRECIPITATION  
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY, BUT WE'LL LIKELY  
SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE AS THE COLDER AIR  
ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS SOME OF THE  
GUIDANCE HAD ANOTHER SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE  
BULK OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE TONIGHT KEEPS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR  
SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A  
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WEST.  
FAST/PROGRESSIVE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF  
CLIPPER SYSTEMS COMING DOWN AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH  
AXIS. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AT THIS RANGE IS VERY DIFFICULT  
TO PIN DOWN AND MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD  
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF WINTRY WEATHER  
AS EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
UPDATED AT 620 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT  
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT TIMES LATE IN THE  
DAY. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL  
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. THICKENING CLOUDS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE  
SNOW FLURRIES AT BWG AND SURROUNDING AREAS, GENERALLY BETWEEN  
23-04Z.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...EBW  
LONG TERM...MJ  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
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