137
FXUS63 KLMK 200524
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
124 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
* WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE AREA WITH
CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO DEVELOP A NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE POST FRONTAL
REGIME, A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR AS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. CLEARING SKIES WERE
NOTED IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-165 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD COVERED AREAS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST OUT IN THE CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAD
RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET, AND THEN WINDS WILL REALLY SLACKEN OFF. AS SKIES
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, SOME RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE PLACE IN AREAS WEST OF I-65. WHILE THIS
REGION IS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 50S, A REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR RATHER QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARD
SUNSET AND THEN BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW-LYING AREAS, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN
CORRIDORS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.
FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF KENTUCKY. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MAY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
IN COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A BIT MORE ELEVATED. LOWS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. OVERALL, TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
COOL AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE DELAYED AND WINDS LOOK TO
STAY UP A BIT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.
STEADY COLD ADVECTION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING OUR FIRST SURGE OF CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH A
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.
SOUTHERN KY MAY REMAIN A BIT WARMER WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW A GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO OCCUR. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS AND
THE TYPICAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S WITH THE RIDGES AND URBAN AREAS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.
AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND A FROST ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED HERE.
FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL REMAIN IN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND EVEN AN LIGHT FREEZE.
THE VALLEYS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH THE RIDGES/URBAN AREAS REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 40S. SOME OF OUR MORE DEEP/PROTECTED AREAS HERE COULD GET
INTO THE LOWER 30S, SO ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE HEADLINE
MAY BE REQUIRED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOVING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN ROLL
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO US FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
THROUGH MID-MORNING, LIGHT SW WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. LATER TODAY, WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LEVEL DECK EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LLJ WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS, WITH SFC WINDS VEERING FROM SSE TO SW TOWARD THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG
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