054
FXUS63 KLMK 161720
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR
LESS POSSIBLE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
* A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORDS ON THURSDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
FOG WEST OF I-65 HAS MIXED OUT FOR THE MOST PART, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BEING REPORTED. STILL HAVE A BAND OF LOW STRATUS FROM
MUNFORDVILLE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
STRATUS IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING NORTHEAST, SO IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR IT TO MIX OUT. SKIES ARE STARTING TO MIX
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DENSE FOG NOT BEING REPORTED, WILL LET DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1700Z.
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
FOG IS STARTING TO BREAK UP DECENTLY OUT IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. EXPECT MOST FOG IN THIS AREA TO BE MIXED OUT BY 16 OR
1630Z. EAST OF I-65, VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING, BUT A THIN LAYER OF
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS BUILDING WESTWARD. CLEARING WAS NOTED
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALLEN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GARRARD COUNTY.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRIMMED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN SIDES, WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE LAST 30-
45 MIN. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH 17Z.
ISSUED AT 949 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPS
DID DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS, NOT MANY REPORTS OF SLICK ROADS,
LIKELY DUE TO THE LAG IN PAVEMENT TEMPS COMPARED TO AIR TEMPS. FOG
WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT HAVE COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 17Z.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS ARE IN PRODUCTION AND WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DENSE FOG EVENT ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AS SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT ON SCHEDULE, AND DENSE FOG HAS QUICKLY EXPANDED AS
A RESULT OF THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS PRETTY WELL PLACED, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS WEBCAMS FOR ANY NEEDED EXPANSION INTO
THE FEW SOUTHERN KY COUNTIES NOT IN IT. IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE
TO ADD COUNTIES FROM A SCOTTSVILLE UP THROUGH COLUMBIA LINE IF
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THERE. OTHERWISE, THE OTHER CHANGE TO THE
NPW PRODUCT IS TO ADD SOME MENTION OF PATCHY SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY AT THIS HOUR. OVERALL, SURFACES SHOULD
LAG AIR TEMPS A BIT GIVEN HOW MILD WE HAVE BEEN, BUT STILL A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT ELEVATED SURFACES DEVELOPING SOME PATCHES OF BLACK
ICE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE FOG IS WELL ESTABLISHED, SO EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY AFTER
SUNRISE, AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE NPW ANOTHER HOUR IF IT LINGERS.
REGARDLESS, DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. THIS
MAY HURT HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT GIVEN THE SLOWER START TO HEATING, SO
DID BACK OFF HIGHS SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION, SOME SCATTERED UPPER SKY
COVER MAY ALSO LIMIT HEATING A BIT. STILL, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S EXPECTED FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S ONCE AGAIN. COOLER DECOUPLED AREAS INTO THE MID 30S ARE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LIKE WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE US IS LEADING TO A
FAIRLY CALM TUESDAY BEFORE ENTERING AN ACTIVE PATTERN LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 10-15KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUST AROUND 20KTS LIKELY. WE WILL SEE GRADUAL
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER
WITH DRY AREA ALOFT. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA TO LIMIT ANY DEEPER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS THURSDAY, DUE TO A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN INTO TX.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXIT REGION DYNAMICS
OVERSPREADING A MODEST WARM SECTOR COULD SUPPORT SOME MORE DISCRETE
CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WIND SHEAR PROFILE
AND MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE INTENSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WITH THE WAA BEING BROUGHT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KY, AND HIGH 60S TO
LOW 70S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOME
RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THROUGH MID WEEK.
A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER SUPPORT, AND A MID LEVEL MOISTURE FEED ROUGHLY
PARALLELING A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
LESS AGGRESSIVE, AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW BY THE TIME WE
GET TO THIS TIME PERIOD. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW. AFTER THESE
SYSTEMS MOVE OUT, WE CAN EXPECT A COOL SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN IN THE 40S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
DENSE FOG HAS MIXED OUT OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT SDF/LEX. LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY. OVERALL, IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THINGS WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING, BUT
WE COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2-1SM AT HNB/SDF/LEX AND PERHAPS
RGA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF A PATCHY FOG SET UP FOR KBWG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....CAL
AVIATION.....MJ
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