757
FXUS63 KLMK 090029
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
729 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL
BRING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.5".
* COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WARM, MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CO-LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT WORKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT DRAGS A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL KY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSFER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
LLJ OF 55-65 KTS WILL INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO BETWEEN TO BETWEEN
1.30-1.50". A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS LINE
OF ACTIVITY WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE 9Z FOR
HNB, 11Z FOR SDF/BWG THEN BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR FFT AND LEX AS IT
QUICKLY PUSHES INTO EASTERN KY BY MID/LATE MORNING.
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) FURTHER NORTH TO THE OHIO
RIVER AND ALONG I-64 INCLUDING LOUISVILLE, LEXINGTON, FRANKFORT.
THIS CONTINUES TO BE A VERY MARGINAL SETUP AS IT IS ONCE AGAIN A
HIGH SHEAR/ VERY LOW CAPE SCENARIO. THANKS TO A TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION, WE WILL ALREADY HAVE GUSTY WINDS
IN PLACE BETWEEN 25-35 MPH, FACTOR IN THE ROBUST LLJ AND IF WE GET
ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT COULD BRING SOME OF THAT ENERGY DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THAT IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MUCAPE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN JUST A COUPLE HUNDREDS JOULES OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BUT WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AND WARM OVERNIGHT IN AND
AROUND THE LOW/MID 60S WHICH COULD ESTABLISH NEW RECORD WARM
MINIMUMS FOR TOMORROW.
SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL KY
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WE ANTICIPATE A LULL IN ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH EVEN LOW 70S
ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER, MAKING A RUN AT A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE RECORD
HIGHS. SEE THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION ON
RECORD WARM MINIMUMS AND RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR TOMORROW.
ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE ARK-
LA-TEX REGION TOMORROW EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LULL IN
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THESE STORMS AND LOWER PWAT VALUES WITH THE RAIN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WPC HAS REMOVED MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA OUT OF THE EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOKS, JUST CLIPPING CLINTON AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO LOWERED WITH
MOST OF CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN RECEIVING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION GETTING AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND 2 INCHES.
GIVEN THE OVERALL GROUND CONDITIONS, FLOODING CONCERNS APPEAR LOW
BUT NOT GOING TO RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING
NEEDED FOR STANDING/POOLING WATER OVERNIGHT TOMORROW INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY PUSHING THE SFC COULD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST. COLDER,
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY LOOKS COLD WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW MID 30S. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
FLATTENS OUT ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
WARM UP EACH DAY INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
TUESDAY WHILE STAYING DRY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
INTO MVFR AND LOWER VFR LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OVER ALL AREA TAF SITES. AS RAIN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, DON'T BELIEVE WE WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
FRI, JAN 9TH
REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 53 (1949) | 61
LEX 50 (1901) | 59
BWG 53 (1935) | 63
FFT 52 (1901) | 59
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
FRI, JAN 9TH
REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 67 (1949) | 67
LEX 70 (1930) | 65
BWG 70 (1930) | 71
FFT 70 (1930) | 66
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...KDW
CLIMATE...BTN/SRW
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