091
FXUS63 KLMK 091044
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
* COOLER WEATHER HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY DRY AT THIS HOUR, THOUGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKET
THE REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. A CURVED BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IN/IL. THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLIDE EAST OVER SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BAND OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE
REGION WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL STRUGGLE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND WEAKENING
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT (LLJ). SO ONLY BRIEF, LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING, AND THE HIGHEST CHANCE (50+ PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IS STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN IN.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE,
LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT, A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
CANADA. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC, AND THIS SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WE'LL STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY DRY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING (ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THOSE AREAS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND PROVIDES MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW DUE TO LIMITED BUOYANCY
AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN A MOIST POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
MONDAY - FRIDAY...
MONDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE,
AND SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD GET SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT. SOME
PATCHY FROST SEEMS PLAUSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THANKS TO SW FLOW WAA AHEAD OF A COMPACT WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CEILINGS ARE BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 5-8 KFT AT THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
MOSTLY DISSIPATED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE EAST OF I-65 THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS QUICKLY SCT OUT THIS MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER WSW AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER 15Z.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE 18-23Z TODAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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