923
FXUS63 KLOT 051103
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
603 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THERE ISN'T MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT OVER THE
SHORT TERM WITH A SPRAWLING MID 1020 MB HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE IN
STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, AND ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE JAMES BAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING INTO
THE BASE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE
APPEARING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, YIELDING 30-40
PERCENT AFTERNOON RHS. THE OVERLAP OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
(NORTH) DOES NOT LOOK TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
(SOUTH) AT THIS TIME.
A "COLD FRONT" WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE WE'LL BE MODESTLY COLD ADVECTING, DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SIMILAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.
A FAST-MOVING, LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE
BELT OF CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT EPHEMERAL
AND DISORGANIZED F-GEN FORCING MAY INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF
MODESTLY STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
A PARCHED SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT GREATLY PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE.
NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE AND
WARM AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DELIVERS NEAR +15 TO +20 C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF
LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS.
CARLAW
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z AT ORD/MDW,
THEN SETTLE ENE/E UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH A LAKE-ENHANCED PUSH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY VEER FROM ESE EARLY IN
THE EVENING TO SSE/S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, TO SW OVER 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY MORNING.
KLUBER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BURNS
HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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