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FXUS63 KLOT 291122
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
622 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK AS THE REGION
OF MORE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF TODAY WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR SUPPORTING A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE RAIN.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA SITUATED BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTH AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA,
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE HIGH CIRRUS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY THEN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S IN THE CHICAGO METRO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE. FOR HALLOWEEN, THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S WHICH WILL STEADILY FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S AFTER
SUNSET.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER DISTURBANCE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCES
(~20%) STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE AT THIS DISTANCE, THOUGH ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT (<0.10"). THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
QUASI-ZONAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS FEATURE TRACKS WE MAY END UP WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL
END UP REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA.
PETR
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DEPARTING MORNING CIRRUS AND
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CUMULUS. SHALLOW HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END
VFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SPORADIC ENE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME
COMMON MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY
BACK NNE THIS EVENING, AND N LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING,
THOUGH GUSTS WILL ABATE DURING THIS TIME.
KLUBER
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WINTHROP
HARBOR IL TO GARY IN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GARY TO BURNS
HARBOR IN-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
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