452
FXUS63 KPAH 111854
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES (BELOW 0) AND IMPACTFUL AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WE MAY EVEN REACH 60 IN SOME AREAS
NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE WABASH VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PIVOT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
FROM VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE BAND LIFTING NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY, RESULTING IN ONLY A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW AND LIKELY WILL BE LARGELY DONE BY MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (ONLY PIKE COUNTY).
BUFFERED IT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR COUNTIES THAT COULD
SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AS IS COMMON WITH THESE CLIPPERS.
THE NEXT AND PROBABLY MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AIR
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10, AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -15 IN OUR FAR
NORTH. WE LIKELY WILL NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ON SUNDAY.
THANKFULLY THE COLD BLAST IS SHORT-LIVED, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN
BY TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED-THU, WITH
HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE 50S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN REACHING 60 IN SOME
AREAS BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION, BUT
LOOKS VERY LIGHT IF IT MATERIALIZES AT ALL. A FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK, WHICH COULD RESULT IN GREATER CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
HAVE SOME LINGERING HIGH MVFR CIGS THAT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
SHORTLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS MAY STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS, WITH
KEVV SEEING THE BEST CHANCE. BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY AND CIGS TO
MVFR IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE BULK OF THE LOWER RESTRICTIONS TO IFR
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN THE WINDS, BUT GENERALLY SOME FORM OF SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WHEN WINDS SWITCH AROUND OUT OF THE N/NW. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT AN MVFR DECK SINKING SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR INZ082.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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