104
FXUS63 KPAH 192246
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WITH HARDLY ANY LIGHTNING APPROACHING
AND JUST INTO OUR CWFA IN SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
ISSUED A MCD FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER, PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA, AS ML CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO
BE AROUND 1000 J/KG, WITH WARMER MID TROP (H5) TEMPS WARMER THAN
-10C LOWERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR AREA. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR STILL RESPECTABLE. THAT AND THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MIGHT RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (PULSE SEVERE)
IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN A BROKEN LINE OR SEGMENTS. BUT OVERALL
THINGS NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR MORE.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION. DRY AND A BIT COOLER
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DRY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH A
DRY ATMOSPHERE. LOWER HUMIDITY MONDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SOLUTIONS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS
THE CONUS, BUT THE GFS STILL GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS RIDGE AS SOMEWHAT WEAKER, AND THUS OUR AREA COULD PERHAPS BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST, BUT FIRST WILL BE DAMPED BY A VIGOROUS CYCLONE
MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE. AT THE SURFACE, A
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST
AREA LATE TUE, PROVIDING SOME FUEL FOR INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT, FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FLOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST,
COMBINED WITH A ROBUST, MOISTENING LOW LEVEL JET, SHOULD SET OFF A
BAND OR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY LATER ON TUE. WIND
SHEAR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
TSTMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO AND SOUTHWESTERN IL,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IF THE TIMING OF INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR OVERLAP ENOUGH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDS
NORTHWARD ON WED, THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT UPDRAFTS ACROSS OUR
REGION, AND THUS COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF TSTMS. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS, MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL.
THE BLEND SUPPLIED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THU IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, IN CASE AN MCS CREEPS INTO OUR REGION
(MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS). OVER THE WEEKEND, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD EVEN SINK INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR, BUT THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS TO ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM, MOIST,
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TUE ON.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER EAST OF THE OHIO AND WABASH
VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SETTLE
DOWN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH
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