641
FXUS63 KPAH 201001
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR LATE MARCH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL AGAIN RISE TO 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (25-35%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST BEGINNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEELING MORE LIKE LATE MAY THAN LATE MARCH
THE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXTREME H5 RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO ABOUT 15-18C
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS AT THE 100TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL BRING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. IN FACT, SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
COULD BE A BIT TOO LOW STILL ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. HERE,
THE NBM ENSEMBLE SHOWS A 50-75% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
90F AND A 15-25% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 95F! RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED DAILY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
THEY COULD BE BROKEN BY A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY EVENING, A POTENT BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT THE SETUP DOES NOT
LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
LIKEWISE, ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED WELL EAST OF
THE REGION.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAJOR COOLDOWN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR TYPICAL LATE
MARCH VALUES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION,
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE, BRINGING ANOTHER WARMUP FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGGED SURFACE
LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE (25-35%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND, BUT DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. UNDER PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SW-WSW AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
FROM 15-24Z, THEN RELAX TO AOA 5 KTS THEREAFTER.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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