070
FXUS63 KPAH 241919
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE (40-70%) OF AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST, OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY, AND THEN LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
QUAD STATE SO FAR TODAY, AND IT SHOULD BREAK UP, IF NOT
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE DAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS BEFORE IT GIVES UP.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE DRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SAID
GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT HIGH. INSTABILITY WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-
EXISTENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, SO THUNDER
SEEMS LIKE QUITE A STRETCH AT THIS TIME.
THE 12Z HREF MEAN HAS SURFACE-BASED CAPE AROUND 2500J/KG OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THERE BEHIND THE BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE LACKING, BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT,
SO A STRAY STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. BASED ON THIS NBM FORECAST, THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL NEED AT LEAST AN ADVISORY MONDAY AND MOST
LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BEGINNING AN ADVISORY IN THE 4TH
PERIOD IS ABOUT AS FAR AS WE WANTED TO PUSH IT AT THIS POINT,
SO WE JUST SETTLED FOR THE WESTERN HALF FOR NOW, AND WILL LET
FUTURE SHIFTS EXPAND AS THEY SEE FIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR CONVECTION RIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TRI STATE
AND PENNYRILE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE,
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD BACK HEAT INDICES FROM THE CURRENTLY
DRY NBM FORECAST. ALSO, THIS TYPE OF SET UP CAN LEAD TO SOME
PRETTY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS TO
HOLD TO THE NORTH OF THE QUAD STATE FOR NOW, BUT IF THAT WERE TO
CHANGE A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT COULD DEVELOP
AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THERE
IS NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THERE TO EVEN BE A
CONSISTENT 15+% POP, SO WE WILL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR JUST
MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE QUAD
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO THWART THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD UP
THROUGHOUT THE REGION TUESDAY, BUT IT IS ANOTHER THING TO
MONITOR. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK
NEAR NORMAL AND STAY THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE NBM STRUGGLES TO HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POP UNTIL A 20% CHANCE
SHOWS UP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH TANGIBLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
LINGERING, ALBEIT NOT EXTREME, HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A ROUND OF
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING OVER THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION
OVERNIGHT, AND MAY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME, BUT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT ALL SITES, AND AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
WESTERN SITES AFTER 15Z. SOME ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-
080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ001>009.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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