372
FXUS63 KPAH 231202
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
702 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHILE RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A 40-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COOL DOWN. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
LEADING TO A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE 80S TO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS ARE OF THE CONUS TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 OVER PORTIONS OF SEMO. THIS WILL PLACE SEVERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN. RECORD HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS: EVV-81, PAH-83 AND POF-83. THE
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 85 DEGREES IS ABOUT 50-60% ACROSS MOST OF
THE QUAD STATE; HOWEVER, SEMO HAS ABOUT A 60-80% CHANCE OF SEEING 85
DEGREES OR GREATER.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR BEING
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA (AROUND 35-40 KTS); HOWEVER, INSTABILITY
DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT OR AROUND 500J/KG. IT IS WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS AT A MINIMUM A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS ONLY A 20-30%
CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM THAT SYSTEM.
COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS
ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER RIDGE IS
SET TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
MVFR CLOUDS OUT EAST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTERWARDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS EVENING AN OVC
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE NORTH FOR A WHILE TODAY AND GUSTY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
THEY WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEAST AND COME DOWN TO AROUND 10 KTS
AND LESS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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