435
FXUS63 KPAH 071738
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LITTLE TO NO FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS TO ELUDE US
UNTIL MAYBE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY
AND TOMORROW. AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY (UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S), WE START A WARMING TREND TOMORROW. CONCERNING ANY FROST
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY LIKELY
DUE TO ANTICIPATED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE OUT
OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 MPH, BOTH OF THESE THINGS WOULD HELP
PRECLUDE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TOMORROW WINDS TURN FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.
ALOFT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG
A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FROM THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL MO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVING US A 30-45% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND A 20-35% FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND BRINGS A 35-45% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BEHIND THAT ONE MOVES FROM THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS. CURRENTLY NBM HAS A 30-50%
CHANCE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND RAMPING UP TO 50-60%
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW AND LOOKING AT
SATELLITE, WHAT CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA IS
DYING OFF BEFORE GETTING HERE. WINDS ARE MODEST AROUND 7-10 KTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND WILL GET LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND WILL
AGAIN BE MODEST AROUND 7-10 KTS AGAIN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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