348
FXUS63 KPAH 070655
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1255 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A LINGERING RISK POSSIBLY OVER SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- INTERVALS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, SOME AMOUNTS LOCALLY HEAVY,
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE GROUND/AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WITH SOME AVAILABLE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG THAT IS BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE IN PLACES. GOES NIGHT FOG IR SEEMS TO BE DOING A PRETTY
GOOD JOB PICKING UP ON THE THICKEST OF IT FROM NEAR POPLAR BLUFF
EASTWARD TO FT. CAMPBELL. ALTHOUGH WEBCAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES
ARE INCONSISTENT THROUGH THAT RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND A SMALL DENSE FOG ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WARM (BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY) CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TODAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM HIT US IN TWO WAVES. FIRST THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST APPROACHES THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE; AT THE SAME TIME DIGGING TROUGHING OVER THE
ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND BROADENS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET- MAX
PUSHING THIS TROUGH TO ABOUT 130-140KTS. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AT ABOUT 992MB OR SO - DRAMATICALLY INCREASING OUR
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AND
850 FLOW INCREASING TO 55-65 KTS. THOSE STRONG WINDS WILL BE
PULLING ON 60-65 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR TO OUR SOUTH, WITH EVEN
RICHER MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. GFS- BASED
GUIDANCE HAS DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THAT IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRIER AIR ALOFT (AND THE TIME OF DAY). ECMWF
GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 62-63. THERE ARE
COMPLICATIONS IN THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS WITH THE STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION PRESENT AT 850MB TO START THE EVENT
(EVIDENT ON CURRENTLY 00Z NASHVILLE RAOB AND FROM OUR FIRE
WEATHER BEHAVIOR THE LAST FEW DAYS). MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO LIFT
THAT INVERSION OUT BY 03Z OR SO AMID DECENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS. FROM 00 TO 06Z WE SIT IN A SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT REGION AMID
A PHASING OF THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET WITH A MAX CENTERED
ROUGHLY OVER TEXARKANA AND A STRONGER ONE OVER TX/OK
PANHANDLES. WE ARE UNDER THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD ON THE STRONGER
ONE AND LEFT FRONT QUAD ON THE OTHER WITH CURVATURE HOLDING UP
WELL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LIFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BROADER POLAR JET SPREADS OVER
THE AREA.
I'M NOT SURE THAT THE CAP WILL BE COMPLETELY LIFTED OUT BY THIS
SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL JET-LEVEL SITUATION. BUT AS MENTIONED MOST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO DO THAT. ECMWF SOUNDINGS GIVE US
400-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND GFS EVEN WITH ITS POSSIBLY TOO LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE 200-400 J/KG. I'VE SPENT ALL THIS TIME RAMBLING
ABOUT THE SPECIFICS BECAUSE THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
EXCEPTIONAL. 850MB FLOW IS BETWEEN 98TH AND 99TH PERCENTILE IN
NAEFS ANOMALIES WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS YIELDING 400-600 M2/S2
OF 0-1KM SRH AND 0-1KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40KT. ANY SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION THAT WERE TO GET GOING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE DANGEROUS. IN THE WINTER TIME IT SEEMS ANY ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC BEHAVIOR LIKE THIS RARELY WORKS OUT IN OUR
FAVOR. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THE THERMODYNAMIC DETAILS
PLAY OUT, WHICH HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS SHOULD GIVE US CONTINUED INSIGHT ON.
WE END UP IN A FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH TO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE BY NOW 150-170 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET HOLDS
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IN SUCH A POSITION THE BEST
FORCING STAYS TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL EVERYTHING
CLEARS. IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE SCRAPED TOGETHER WE
WOULD HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I AM JUST A LITTLE MORE SKEPTICAL
OF THAT HAPPENING WITHOUT SEMI-ACTIVE JET-LEVEL ASCENT GOING
ON.
BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE LOOK TO PROBABLY GET
BACK TO NORMAL. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BROAD DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES STARTS TO LOOK A LITTLE
BIT MORE LIKE WHAT WE DEALT WITH LAST MONTH, ALTHOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR IS NOT QUITE THE SAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, THIS WILL MIX
OUT QUICKLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. FEW TO SCATTERED MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY BRUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GOOD
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC
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