488
FXUS63 KPAH 170644
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
144 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 80-100% LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI,
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT CARMEL TO MARION, CAPE
GIRARDEAU AND POPLAR BLUFF,
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD
HIGHS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH IN HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE, BUT 20-30% CHANCES SEEM
WARRANTED FOR NOW BETWEEN 17Z-00Z.
BY 06Z TONIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING, SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. PEAK CHANCES OF 80-100% WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FROM 08Z-18Z,
AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY FROM 12Z-21Z.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROF, SO SHOWERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A LITTLE, WITH QPF NOW FROM NEAR A
HALF AN INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH.
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCLUDES NORTHWEST/WEST PORTIONS OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT CARMEL TO
MARION ILLINOIS, TO CAPE GIRARDEAU AND POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING TO A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO OUR REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.
WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE 12 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE SEASONABLE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BEGINNING AN
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN TIMING OF A LATE
WEEK SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 20% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWING LIMITED IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE SOUTH
WINDS PICK UP LATE MORNING TO AROUND 10-13 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS 20-25 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...AD
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