375
FXUS63 KPAH 051725
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL POSE THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BRIEFLY COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE FA IS NOW BENEATH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT JET MAX AT 250 MB THAT IS
PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, THE CONCERN IS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION
THAT WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE 0Z HREF
SHOWS THE HEAVIEST AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FLOOD WATCH THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES, RUNOFF ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR DRAINAGE IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS PROBABLE WITH CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN 1000 TO 1300 J/KG OF MUCAPE, 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM LAPSE RATES.
ONE REASON FOR THE SLIGHT UPTICK PREVIOUSLY WAS DUE TO THE
SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE LLJ. WITH THAT SAID, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE THE BETTER LIFT/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET AND A 500 MB VORT MAX BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER
18Z, A STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO SFC CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH 700 TO 1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE AND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER, SPC
MAINTAINS GENERAL THUNDER IN THEIR D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AS THE
BETTER KINEMATICS WILL NO LONGER BE IN PLACE OVER THE FA.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH. WHILE TODAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, BREAKS OF SUN ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. IN FACT, THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY REACH 80 DEGREES AGAIN! GIVEN AN
INFLUX OF WAA WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO 13C, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE A BIT COMPARED TO THE
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST WITH BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING DEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN ANOTHER RISK FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTH. CONVECTION WILL BE WANING AS STORMS
PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE FA, WITH THE
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
WHERE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (SLIGHT RISK NOW CLIPS
CARTER COUNTY) IN THEIR D2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WINDS
AND A ISOLATED BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
AFTER FROPA ON SATURDAY, A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE ZONAL. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY APPROACHES
THE FA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ML GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MULTIPLE OUTCOMES THAT
MAY POSE A GREATER RISK FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY, BUT
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR REGIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE TAFS WITH THIS PACKAGE. EXPECTING THAT ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
LIFTING CIGS TO LOW VFR AS WELL, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
TERMINALS STAY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED
OUT FURTHER AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. THINKING THAT WINDS AND SKY COVER
WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
BECOME S TO SW AROUND 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, RISING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
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