627
FXUS63 KPAH 131133
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK. SEVERAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS
WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN.
- THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE (50-80%) OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN
0.25-0.75".
- ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.75" FOR
THIS EVENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WEAKLY-FORCED OPEN WARM SECTOR WITH
STOUT SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGING KEEPING ORGANIZED DISTURBANCES AT
BAY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED WAA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THE
GREAT MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY OR SEE VERY MINOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE 14-17C, YIELDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY, AND THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AS WELL. RECORD HIGHS (BOTH OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES) ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE, BUT STILL VERY WARM, PERIOD OF
WEATHER BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE H5 RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN, AND A SURFACE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC
HAS REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WELCOME RAIN IS LIKELY, WITH THE
LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING ABOUT 0.25-0.75" OF
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE H5 RIDGE INTENSIFIES. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WARM INTO THE 15-18C RANGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. THESE VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE
UNDERDONE, AS THE NBM ENSEMBLE SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING 90F ON FRIDAY IN WEST KY, AND A 40-60%
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN
AGAIN (PERHAPS FOR A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD) SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE LATEST NBM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS ANOTHER 0.25-0.75" OF NEEDED RAIN
BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. AT THIS TIME, LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
STAY ABOVE 40F, WHICH WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY FROST CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND SOUTH. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZE FROM THE S TO SW, SUSTAINED AT 12-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING TO AROUND 7-12
KTS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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