193
FXUS63 KPAH 010753
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL; TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, BROAD TROUGHING IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A RIDGE COVERS THE WEST. SUCCESSIVE
SYSTEMS SWING ACROSS THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME ZONAL FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AN UNCERTAIN INTERACTION BETWEEN RENEWED TROUGHING
AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. TROUGHING KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND SURFACE WINDS TAKING
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE
SOUTHEAST. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE ALL THESE POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN, AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL WITH ALL OF THEM, KEEPING AMOUNTS BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR MOST EVERYWHERE (ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ASIDE)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POPS ARE GENERALLY LOWER THAN WHAT HREF AND
LREF ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BASED ON A
DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN RATHER THAN
MEASURABLE RAIN. WHILE A SHIFT UP IN POPS IS POSSIBLE, NO
MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO,
DRAGGING A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.,
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AN UPPER-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST FEEDS SOME VORTICITY INTO
THIS, ALLOWING FOR HIGHER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY CONCERNING
AND WILL MOSTLY BE ELEVATED. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH THE DROUGHT REMAINS AND RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AN INCH OR SO WON'T CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES IN OUR
CURRENT SITUATION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80 MONDAY,
RIDGING NEVER REALLY SETS IN AND HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOME MID LEVEL BASES WILL WORK DOWN THE COLUMN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST
IMPACTED WILL BE THE NORTH (KMVN), WHERE LOW VFR BASES WILL HAVE
ABOUT A 3 HOUR OVERNIGHT WINDOW FOR -SHRA POTENTIAL. UPON LATE
NIGHT FROPA, ALL TERMINALS EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH,
AND SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY OCCUR UPON ITS IMMEDIATE PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE, TRANQUIL FLIGHT CONDITIONS CARRY FORWARD THENCE WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASING ITS HOLD UPON OVERTOP
MIGRATION, EFFECTIVELY CEASING GUST POTENTIAL INTO/THRU THE
PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST; MOSTLY FEW-SCT DIURNAL
BASES AVERAGING AROUND 5K FT AGL MAY DEVELOP THEN TOO, WITH KMVN
SHOWING SOME TEMPORARY CIG POTENTIAL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...
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