582
FXUS63 KPAH 261111
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S, WHICH IS AS MUCH
AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND THEN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
- AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM UP, DAILY CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE
QUAD STATE THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE A SKINNY RIDGE ALOFT LINGERS
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY SNEAK THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING,
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE, RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
POSITIVELY-TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE QUAD STATE IN THE
WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ENTER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH TIME, THOSE CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY
APPEARS VERY LIMITED (<500J/KG), SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE
PREVALENT, BUT THE NBM DOES HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
9-15KFT CEILINGS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KMVN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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