925
FXUS63 KPAH 151736
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGH VALUES AGAIN TODAY.
- A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (60-90% CHANCE)
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE (50-70%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND
DRY QUIET WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
STOUT H5 RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL AGAIN BRING TO
THE REGION VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED (10-20%). AS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
RISE TO 16-18C (AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE), HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL
AGAIN APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD HIGH VALUES.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A DECAYING
MODE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER- LEVEL JET MAX WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION, WHICH WILL ACT TO POTENTIALLY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION.
A FEW STORMS REACHING STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE ON THURSDAY, AND SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OVER THE REGION IN ITS LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. IF ANY SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RECOVERY
FOLLOWING THE MORNING PRECIPITATION, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, WITH MOST AREAS NOW
PROGGED TO SEE ABOUT 0.25-0.50" BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY WILL BE SEE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH AS THE
RIDGING BRIEFLY EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN
WEST KENTUCKY MAY REACH 90 DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE (60-90%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORM OF A STRONGLY FORCED LINE
OF STORMS. THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SEVERE RISK, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST IN, WHERE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
TIME. IF SEVERE STORMS DO FORM, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE ALSO FORECAST, WITH
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50" OF RAIN FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER
AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER INTO THE EVENING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH),
AS ARE MVFR VSBYS. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES, GUSTING TO 20-24KTS
TODAY, LOWER TO AROUND 10KTS TONIGHT/TOMORROW. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
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