910
FXUS63 KPAH 092013
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, A MILD
NIGHT WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECAST OVER THE TRI STATE ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING, SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY
SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL TAKE THE QUAD STATE BRIEFLY INTO THE DEEP FREEZE
SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 0-10
DEGREES, WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL NOT REACH THE
FREEZING MARK AND WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH 20 OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DEEP SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE QUAD
STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAXIMIZE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE 06Z-18Z
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ONE AT
THIS TIME. WHEN ECENS HAS A 100% CHANCE OF 35+KT GUSTS, IT IS
USUALLY RIGHT, BUT IT IS NOT THERE, YET. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE
JUST HOW DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING WILL BE TONIGHT, AND THE STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER HOLDING DOWN CONVECTIVE MIXING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER IT
FOR NOW.
ALSO TONIGHT, THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY ALL THEY WAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT THE CONSENSUS KEEPS IT UP ACROSS THE
TRI STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO IT
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN REGARDLESS.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY STAY NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD
STATE, BUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PIKE
COUNTY INDIANA. A LIGHT DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING, SO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE, BUT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARM UP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, IF CLOUDS COOPERATE.
A FINAL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MAINLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE, CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
THROUGH THE AREA, BRIEFLY PLUNGING THE QUAD STATE INTO THE DEEP
FREEZE. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 DEGREES. EVEN
DURING THE DAY, WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
VERY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
ROGUE IFR AND LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KCGI FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CLEARING IS IN PROCESS AT KPAH, SO ANY IMPACT
THERE WILL BE BRIEF.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
KCGI IF THE CEILINGS DO PERSIST. THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
08Z-14Z. MVFR CEILINGS COULD ACCOMPANY IT. MVFR AND LOWER VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AS THEY VEER TO
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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