972
FXUS63 KPAH 241101
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
601 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VARIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE
AROUND 1.5-3" IN SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN, AND LESS THAN
1.5" ELSEWHERE.
- HEAT ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
REACH WELL INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 105 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAY RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
BUT GENERALLY WEAKEN IT AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. ALOFT, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER WEATHER FINALLY
MOVES IN BY SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY MODELS SHOW MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
DURING THIS TIME COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER RIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON DURING THIS TIME WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS WEEK. TOTAL QPF
IS AROUND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND AS MUCH AS A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN/AR STATE LINES. RIDGING
BUILDS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A PREDOMINANT VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 3-5 KNOTS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS LOW BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA OR TSRA ACTIVITY FOR MVN/CGI THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL BASES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED BASES AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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