841
FXUS63 KPAH 112311
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
511 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TRENDS INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE AIR MASS IS WELL IN PLACE WITH THE
RETURN OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WILL PERSIST THRU TMRW. BY THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL
BE MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE, AND WILL BE POISED TO SEE
60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THESE MILDER TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY FOR AWHILE, AS BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
PROJECT AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME.
THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE FORECAST, EXCEPTING
THE MILD TEMPERATURES, WILL BE THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN EVENT. THE
DAY-TO-DAY TRENDING OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE TRACK'S
FOCUS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD, AND TODAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THAT TREND. AS A RESULT, THE
NBM NOW PROJECTS FROM 0.75" ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH, TO JUST ABOVE
2" IN PARTS OF OUR FAR SOUTH. THE PROBABILISTIC NBM'S OUTPUT
SUGGESTS A BROAD 40 (NORTH) TO 60 (SOUTH) PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WE'LL SEE STORM AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.
THE WETTING RAINS OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP, ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME, TO DISPERSE OF ANY REMAINING SNOW
PILES AND MAY ALSO HELP MITIGATE OUR ONGOING D0-D2 DROUGHT
PROFILE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
ONGOING LIGHT N-NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15-18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA. AFTER 15-18Z, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E OR
ESE AT 3-5 KTS. SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS DECKS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page