760
FXUS63 KPAH 041052
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WARM UP ARRIVES NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INTERVALS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, SOME AMOUNTS LOCALLY HEAVY,
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH FOR FLOOD RISKS. SEVERE WEATHER RISKS MAY EMERGE, BUT
ELEMENTS REMAIN LOW PREDICTABILITY RIGHT NOW.
- CHANCE OF >65 DEGREE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK 60-80%. RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY 60-80%, WITH 30-40% CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
RAINFALL OVER ONE INCH PROBABILITIES ARE 30-40%
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN, GIVING US
THE FIRST STEP IN A MULTI-DAY WARM-UP. TEMPERATURES GO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND STAY THAT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TUESDAY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HELP KICK A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH BUT IT MAINLY ONLY SERVES TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP APPEARS EVIDENT.
THE MAIN TOPIC OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY IS A
TROUGH THAT STARTS TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STEEPENS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND RETURNS IT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. THIS GIVES US PRETTY GOOD PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. ECMWF BASED FORECASTS
HAVE HAD THIS WAVE SLOWER FROM THE GET-GO AND THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE TRENDING CLOSER TO THAT. THIS GIVES US A MADDOX SYNOPTIC
HEAVY RAIN PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PAH CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. ON ECMWF RUNS WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR A LITTLE MORE CLEANLY WHERE THE GFS KEEPS
US A LITTLE BIT MORE ON THE COOL SIDE.
ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP
FOR THE AREA WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 61-62 AS THE SLOWER
ADVANCING WAVE HAS MORE RETURN FLOW AND A SFC LOW MORE OVER
CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS EVEN
SLOWER, KEEPING THE FRONT BACK UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS
HAS EVERYTHING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. RAIN LOOKS LIKE A LOCK, WITH
THUNDER PROBABLY TAGGING ALONG. WHETHER WE END UP WITH SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY
RIPPLES AND DETAILS TO BE RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE SHEAR
PARAMETERS SHOULD BE ENTIRELY SUPPORTIVE IF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY DOES END UP DEVELOPING. CIPS/CSU SEVERE PROBS SHOW A
BLIP, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS STILL PROBABLY TOO LOW RIGHT NOW.
FOR NOW THE AIRMASS TRAJECTORIES BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL
PULLED MORE FROM THE MONTANA ROCKIES AND NOT THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES AND ALASKA WHERE THE REALLY COLD AIR IS. WE WILL
WATCH TO SEE IF THAT TRENDS COLDER, BUT FOR NOW WE END UP ABOVE
NORMAL EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 6 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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