775
FXUS63 KPAH 271824
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHILE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE
UNDER ONLY A HEAT ADVISORY ON TUESDAY. RELIEF ARRIVES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH UP
TO A 15% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 7PM TO MIDNIGHT. ONE
FINAL ROUND OF STORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 115 ARE PROGGED WHILE TUESDAY WILL
BE MORE VARIABLE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105-115. FOR
THIS REASON, SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE ONLY UNDER AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR TOMORROW WITH A HEAT ADVISORY COVERING
MORE NORTH AND EAST. WITH THAT SAID, AS A PRE FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS EVENING, THERE IS
A 30-40% CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
TONIGHT. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE CAMS SHOW MOST THE
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS REMAINING TO THE EAST, BUT THE
HRRR DOES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
WEST.
WHILE THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY COVERAGE IS LOW, ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL, AS SPC
MAINTAINS UP TO A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN IS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA,
AND THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. MLCAPE PEAKS AROUND 4000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND A THETA-E
DIFFERENCE OF 30-40K. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMICS BEGIN TO WANE
TONIGHT, THEY STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE RISK
BETWEEN 7PM TO MIDNIGHT. ONE FINAL ROUND OF STORMS DOES MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AT ABOUT THE
SAME AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND THE KENTUCKY
PURCHASE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY
STEADY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
MAKE A RETURN FRIDAY AS THE GFS/CMC/EC ALL SHOW A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY THAT WOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A PROB30
FOR TSRA AT KMVN/KEVV/KOWB. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING MICROBURSTS,
LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN RETURN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 7-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-082-083-086-087.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-082-083-086-087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ080-081-084-
085-088>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ013>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ013>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>012.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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