309
FXUS63 KPAH 242336
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS HIGH AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HIT 70 EVERY
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE OTHERS REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.
- PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE AND WEST KY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY,
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
- A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE
REGION INTO NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS MAINLY
BEING AN ISSUE THIS EVENING, AND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD, THE FOG WILL DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 06Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP NEGATE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER, THINK WE MAY STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FOG TO CONTEND WITH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE REGION. SUNSHINE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING, BUT THAT WON'T STOP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S YET
AGAIN.
RECORD HIGHS ARE A BIT LOWER ON FRIDAY, AND WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY WEST HALF) TO BOOST TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CHRISTMAS. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SHOULD LARGELY STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE WARMTH
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
COOLER FOR SATURDAY. NBM IS STILL NEAR 70 BUT THE AI MODELS IN
PARTICULAR SUGGEST ONLY LOW 60S INSTEAD DUE TO A BIT COOLER AIRMASS
PENETRATING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. NBM HAS FINALLY LATCHED ONTO THE THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED, BUT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE TO THINK AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
WOULD BE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (LOW 60 DEWPOINTS)
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. CSU-MLP DEPICTS A BROAD 5% AREA
FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE POST FRONTAL, LENDING TO AN ELEVATED NATURE
TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTREME WARMTH AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH
THE TIMING, SUGGESTING MORE OF A LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LINGERING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WE MODERATE MID
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES
COLDER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE TAFS REMAIN CHALLENGING THIS EVENING WITH LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
TONIGHT AND MAY CLIP KMVN WHILE KEVV/KOWB LIKELY REMAIN
SATURATED WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LEANED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW CIGS RETURNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE HIGH HREF PROBABILITIES WITH PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY
OVER SEMO. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH A
RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ077-078-
083-087-091.
MO...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KYZ010-
013>016-018>021.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW
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