287
FXUS63 KPAH 090637
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
137 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OR HAIL
BUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- WE DRY OUT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
WARM BUT NOT OVERLY HOT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK MAY EMERGE FROM
THAT BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING
EASTWARDS ACROSS SEMO AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE ON PAH/VWX VWP FOR WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN
TORNADOES, BUT THE LINE IS RUNNING FROM 74 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR
INTO 68 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
DECREASES MARKEDLY. THE EFFECT OF THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT WITH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW A GOOD 10-15 MILES AHEAD OF THE LEADING
EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM WEAK
LAYER WARM ADVECTION AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER AROUND BUT THE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WORK
WITH THE AROUND 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO PARCELS
ROOTED ABOUT 925 MB. IN A WORSE CASE THIS COULD PUSH DOWN A
LITTLE WIND OR HAIL BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MUTED
AS ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THAT WE GET A BREAK FOR A BIT. SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH LEAVING US WITH WARM BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT OR HUMID
CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS INCREASES OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BRINGS RETURN
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
START TO WORK BACK IN PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON POP UP
STORMS. THE CHANCES STILL SEEM TO PEAK FRIDAY WITH A MODEST
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD IMPROVING LIFT AND OUR LOCAL KINEMATIC
FIELDS. SOME LOCAL SEVERE RISK MAY EMERGE FROM THAT BUT ITS TOO
MUDDY RIGHT NOW TO SEE CLEARLY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE THEN STAY IN A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT EACH OF
THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY APPROACH
THE WESTERN TAF SITES; HOWEVER, DID INCLUDE A PREVAILING AT
CGI/PAH FOR THUNDER AND MAINLY SHOWERS AT MVN TO START THE
PERIOD. THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE INTENSITY AS THEY
SHIFT EASTWARD TO EVV/OWB OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC
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