433
FXUS63 KPAH 070512
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMUP COMMENCES, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80F
BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE SEMO HITS 80F, TAPERING TO
ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF 80F BEING REACHED IN THE FAR EAST.
- NEXT RAIN/STORM CHANCES COME BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN ABOUT A
HALF INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR, AND
AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WHEN
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BEGINS GRADUALLY TODAY, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND SUNSHINE MAKES A MORE
MARKED RETURN. IT OCCURS UNDER THE PASSING UPPER LONG WAVE TROF,
SO HIGH TEMPS, WHILE WARMER, REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
60S FOR ONE MORE DAY. DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE 30S, AND THIS
COMBO RESULTS IN BOTTOM-OUT RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS BUOY THE RH DROP WITH
RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER.
OUR NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THEN
SHIFTED EAST, RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES PUMP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
70S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S. THE FRONT'S MAIN ENERGY STAYS
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST, BUT ITS CONVERGENT PRESENCE INCOMING
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VARIABLE POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. THESE POPS WILL RANGE
FROM CATEGORICAL IN OUR NORTHEAST, WHERE AROUND 1/2" QPF MAY BE
REALIZED ALONG/AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR ACROSS SEIL/SWIN, TO
NARY A DROP ALONG OUR TN/AR BORDER COUNTIES IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THE NIGHT-TIME PASSAGE AND ENERGY DISPLACEMENT BELIES ANYTHING
OTHER THAN GENERAL RISK STORMS WITH THIS PASSAGE.
THE WEEKEND STARTS NICELY WITH SATURDAY CONTINUING THE WARMING
TREND, IN FACT OFFERING PERHAPS THE BEST/WARMEST DAY IN THE
PACKAGE WITH THE CHANCE TO HIT 80F FOR HIGHS. THIS CHANCE RANGES
FROM HIGHEST IN THE OZARKS (AROUND 70%) TO LOWEST IN OUR FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SWIN/WKY (AROUND 40%).
MODELING OF THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PASSAGE/ASSOCIATED QPF HAS
TAKEN A DOWNTURN, WITH A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT TRENDING UPON
RUN-TO-RUN SUCCESSION. WHILE POPS INTRODUCE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, PEAK POPS/BEST QPF IS
SLATED FOR THE BULK SYSTEM PASSAGE DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY,
RANGING FROM MID CHANCE NORTH/WEST, TO LIKELY SOUTH/EAST. BETTER
FORCING AND DYNAMICS SYNC MUCH BETTER WELL TO OUR EAST, SO
ANOTHER GENERAL STORM RISK EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR US AT THIS
WRITING, WITH AVERAGE STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKING AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH OR LESS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KY, ESP CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A DIP BACK TOWARD SEASONAL COOL, WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70F, WITH A MOVE BACK UP THRU THE 70S TUESDAY ON THE WAY TO
FLIRTING WITH 80F AGAIN BY THE MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVERTOP THE TERMINALS THRU THIS
PACKAGE ISSUANCE, SO GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW CONDITIONS AND VISUAL
FLIGHT RULES ARE ANTICIPATED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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