733
FXUS63 KPAH 260635
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATTER HALF OF
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
(40-60%) OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH PRESENTS ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE PEAK OF AVAILABLE ASCENT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MOVED TO
THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF LIFT
AVAILABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH MID MORNING
TODAY. LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY START TO BREAK UP BY
MIDDAY PROVIDING A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING US IN AN AREA OF RELATIVE
HEIGHT RISES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK TO FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A COLD FRONT POURS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WE SIT NEAR THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A JET MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE 00Z
GFS TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVERALL WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIP OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR MAKING
IT DOWN TO CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER
AND A LITTLE WARMER WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF PRECIP LIMITING
WET-BULB COOLING AND HOW MUCH FROZEN PRECIP IT SPITS OUT. IN THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF THE GFS
BEING WEAKER WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET-LEVEL FLOW WORKING
INTO THE BACK OF THE PARENT TROUGH WHICH LETS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT WORK OVER A LARGER FOOTPRINT AND GENERATE MORE PRECIP.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEANS DON'T REALLY PROVIDE MUCH OF A
TIEBREAKER BETWEEN THE TWO EXCEPT PERHAPS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF CAMP. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE RELYING ON
A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX INTERACTION TO TAKE PLACE, PERHAPS MAKING
IT SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY, BUT THE TENDENCY FOR COLD DENSE
AIRMASSES TO OVERACHIEVE IN THEIR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF INFLUENCE
WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT IN MIND. RIGHT NOW I'D LEAN ABOUT 60%
TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION WITH ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE
OF SOME DEGREE OF IMPACTFUL WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE, ANTECEDENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES, AND TEMPERATURE OF THE SOURCE AIRMASS.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TREND FOR STRONGER TROUGHINESS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL PATTERN
CONTINUES. THIS GIVES US REASONABLY STRONG CONFIDENCE IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL A BIT OF A
MESS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A WARM FRONT TO ESTABLISH
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN AND SHOWER
CHANCES, BUT THE GFS HAS THAT STAY MORE DIFFUSE UNTIL THE
LUMBERING WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH SATURATION OCCURS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THE CIGS ARE MAINLY SCT WITH BRIEF BKN INTERVALS.
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
AT KPAH. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 6-11 KTS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALL TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS TURN LIGHT &
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW
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