594
FXUS63 KPAH 250556
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1256 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH A RETURN
TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A
40-90% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING 85 DEGREES, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE OZARKS AND LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT,
PEAKING AT A 60-80% CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG I-64, BUT THE BETTER
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 30 TO 35 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 32 DEGREES
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
- AFTER THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ANOTHER WARMING
TREND COMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE AT
HIGHS REACHING 80 AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON (EVEN A GOOD CHANCE AT 80 IN THE OZARKS).
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND AS
IT DOES SO A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP STAYS
NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH THIS WAVE, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO GET SKIMMED BY THIS ACTIVITY SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE POPS. EVEN SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT
THAT COULD HAVE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH IT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE 80S AND LIKELY BREAK RECORDS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A FEW
MONTHLY RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AGAIN AS WELL. THERE IS AT LEAST
A 40% CHANCE OF REACHING 85 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH A
NEAR CERTAINTY ACROSS THE OZARKS WHERE TEMPS MAY EXCEED 90 YET AGAIN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS, AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK BY THE TIME STORMS ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING OUR THINKING, THAT BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL RESIDES NORTH OF OUR REGION WHERE THE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE INSTABILITY FADES. THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 30-70% CHANCE OF 0.25" QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM (HIGHEST UP
ALONG I-64 AND LOWEST ALONG AR/TN BORDERS). MEANWHILE THERE IS ONLY
A 10-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5".
NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 35 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS DROP TO OR JUST BELOW 0C ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH LEADS
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC TEMPS DROPPING CLOSE TO OR EVEN A HAIR
BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 30-50% CHANCE AT LOWS REACHING 32
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AIRMASS ON SATURDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN SUNDAY, USHERING IN A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF APRIL LOOK QUITE
WARM. NBM GIVES NEARLY A 50% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING 80 ESSENTIALLY
EVERY DAY FROM MARCH 30 THROUGH APRIL 3, WITH HIGHEST PROBS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AROUND 60-75%. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN TO SETUP BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLES
HINTING AT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING DURING THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
GRIDDED TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE BASES WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN SCT-BKN FASHION AOA H7 THRU MIDDAY TMRW, AFTER
WHICH SOME LOWER SCT-BKN DIURNAL VFR BASES ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP TMRW AND MAY INCLUDE SOME GUSTS AT TIMES
DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DH
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