994
FXUS63 KPAH 081817
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1217 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING, INCLUDES A LOW
BUT NON-ZERO (5% OR LESS) CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
- SPC HAS ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG-POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS LINGERING FRIDAY, BUT THE MAIN RISK WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
- TURNING COLDER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK; THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
60F DEW POINTS HAVE ENTERED THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FA. THE
WAA GAME IS STRONG, AND IT NEEDS TO BE, BC TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST CONTINUED CLOUD COVER INHIBITING THE
TEMPERATURE CLIMB. THIS WILL RETARD THE ALREADY COMPROMISED
INSTABILITY/PARCEL BUOYANCY FORECAST, WITH MUCAPE MODELED TO
PEAK SOMEWHERE IN THE 200-400 JOULES RANGE OVER SEMO THIS
EVENING, A SLIGHT DOWNTICK FROM EARLIER MODELING. IT'LL BE A
SHORT SLIVER OF TIME BETWEEN 00-06Z THAT EXISTS IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRON FOR OUR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL...WE'LL
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE PARALLEL
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR FIELD WRT CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS, H8 WINDS TO 60+KTS WON'T TAKE MUCH TO DRAW DOWN,
OFFERING "SEVERE" SHOWER POTENTIAL EVEN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT GRADIENT WINDS TO CRANK UP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOO, SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BREEZY
NONETHELESS.
SOME 12Z DATA SUGGESTS THE FRIDAY CHANCE IS OVERDONE, AND
CHANCES INCLUDING SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD WASH AFTER FROPA
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL
RISK IN OUR SOUTH/EAST, AT LEAST UNTIL THE BLENDED/ENSEMBLE
MODELING CATCHES UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM FINALLY SWEEPS THRU IN
ENTIRETY, WE'LL SEE 1/2 TO MAYBE 1 INCH TOTALS IN GENERAL SO
THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE CAUSING ANY BROADER FLOODING ISSUES.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS BROUGHT IN THIS WEEKEND AND EXTENDS INTO
NEXT WEEK, MORE LIKE WHAT JANUARY USUALLY FEELS LIKE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUNDAY, WHEN HIGHS STRUGGLE
INTO/THRU THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RESTRICTED BASES MAY BOUNCE INTO VFR BUT CIGS WILL NONETHELESS
PREVAIL WITH OVC SKIES, AND SUCH BOUNCES WILL BE TEMPORARY
REPRIEVES BEFORE ANOTHER TREND TOWARD DETERIORATING CIGS SETS IN
WITH THE APPROACHING WX SYSTEM TONIGHT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
SPIKE OVERNIGHT AS IFR-MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL, WITH SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA TOWARD THE END OF AND JUST
PAST THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TMRW BEHIND THE
FROPA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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