984  
FXUS63 KPAH 302123  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
423 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS  
EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 105. PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDER MIGHT REACH  
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.  
 
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE MORE SPOTTY THAN  
WIDESPREAD.  
 
- MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ARRIVE  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS. HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEP BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE  
SUMMER READINGS WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL (MID 80S) THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
THE LONG AWAITED BREAK FROM THIS DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS  
KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP. A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SWEEP  
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A LOT OF  
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
CONVECTION WITH IT, SO OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDELY  
SCATTERED. WHILE SOME ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN OUR  
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IT  
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG  
STORM EITHER DAY, BUT THE BEST SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. WE  
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EVEN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL BY SPC.  
 
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. WE ARE  
HOLDING OFF ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY, GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A POSSIBLE EARLY START TO  
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE AR AND TN BORDERS  
MAY STILL REACH 88-92, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS LINGERING INTO  
THE MID 70S MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS EXCEEDING 100 AGAIN.  
IT'S POSSIBLE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (BASED ON DURATION  
CRITERIA). WILL LET THE MID SHIFT REASSESS TO SEE IF CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES REGARDING THAT.  
 
DRIER, FAR LESS HUMID AIR, FINALLY WORKS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW  
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON  
FRIDAY, AND EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION  
ON SATURDAY. A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY.  
MAY BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 15 MPH  
ACTUALLY. SUNDAY LOOKS NICE AS WELL, WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING BELOW  
70 FOR A 3RD DAY!  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT  
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST BY THEN. A  
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS  
HELPING TO CARVE OUT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT PIVOTS OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY MON-TUES. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN INFLUENCING OUR  
WEATHER WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT IT MAY AMPLIFY  
INTO THE OZARKS/TN VALLEY AGAIN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH  
COULD RESULT IN A RETURN OF TEMPS ABOVE 90 FOR OUR REGION. UNTIL  
THEN THOUGH, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL  
BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHEN LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A  
FEW READINGS IN THE 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. ACTIVE  
THUNDERSTORMS IN MO WILL LOSE FUEL WITH THE SETTING SUN, BUT  
NEAR TERMINALS LIKE KMVN-KCGI WILL NEED MONITORED FOR  
CONVECTION, OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE SCT-BKN BASES BLOWING OFF FROM  
THE NEARBY CONVECTION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG COULD LIKEWISE  
OFFER RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS OR LOW CLOUD/STRATUS BASES, BUT  
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY TMRW MORNING. THAT'S WHEN MORE INVASIVE  
CLOUD COVER WILL COME IN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS  
TO CIGS AND POTENTIALLY OFFER ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN IN ISOLATED-  
SCATTERED FASHION.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ILZ075>078-080>094.  
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-  
086-087-100-107>112-114.  
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING  
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.  
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
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