592
FXUS63 KPAH 131806
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
106 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY (RH OF
20-30%) WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- AFTER ONE MORE SEASONABLE DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE 60S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MONDAY SEEMING TO OFFER THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD (30-50% CHANCE).
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN IS
AROUND 50-60% THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY FEATURES UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH
EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IT
BREAKING DOWN THOUGH AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN U.S.
THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN MORE ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER, TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO
A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION TO SEEP INTO OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS
MOST FAVORED FOR BOTH OF THESE ROUNDS. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL INDUCE A GREATER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS MONDAY, IT APPEARS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY OFFER UP THE HIGHEST CHANCES AHEAD OF A
TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL INDUCE A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH AND MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS LIKE
SOME DECENT RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME, AT LEAST ENOUGH TO HOPEFULLY
PREVENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING. THERE IS CURRENTLY AROUND
A 50-60% CHANCE AT RECEIVING AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ONLY AROUND A 15-25% CHANCE AT 2" OR GREATER.
PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST PARAMETER SPACE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SPC AND CSU-MLP PROBABILITIES
BOTH SUGGEST THIS, KEEPING THE 15% PROBS OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPTICK
IN INSTABILITY, IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK IS
INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE TOMORROW BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NBM IS CLOSER TO
THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF LREF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HITTING 90 APPEARS TO BE MONDAY,
BUT AGAIN NBM IS MUCH HIGHER (60-90% CHANCE) COMPARED TO LREF (30-
50% CHANCE). EITHER WAY THOUGH, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER EVEN
IF WE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO WHAT THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING. THE SPREAD AMONGST SOLUTIONS IS GREATER ON TUESDAY, WITH
ROUGHLY A 10 DEGREE RANGE FROM THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAX
TEMPS, LARGELY DUE TO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION/CLOUDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NBM IS ON THE
HIGHER END OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, SUGGESTING 85-90. THE LOWER END
WOULD BE MORE IN THE 75-80 RANGE. SIMILAR SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ROUGHLY A 10 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN 25TH AND 75TH PERCENT, ALTHOUGH
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COOLER FOR BOTH. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY LOOKS COOLER,
BUT WHETHER THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OR LOWER 80S IS
THE QUESTION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHICH PANS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH PRIMARILY SKC. MAY
HAVE FEW TO BRIEF SCT CU SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 18-23 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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