631
FXUS63 KPAH 240349
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
949 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG, POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH.
- DRY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME CLEARING HOWEVER. THE
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION JUST ABOVE 950MB. AREAS BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER HAVE
SEEN NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHT TEMPERATURE RISES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES
TO ALMOST 60 DEGREES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLANVIEWS SUGGEST
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MULTIPLE GUIDANCES
SOURCES SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
STILL LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME, WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF
DENSE FOG IN THE NDFD AND HWO.
SHORT TERM ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
PLAINS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WTIH THIS SYSTEM WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LIKELY LATER IN THE
DAY MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. THERE HAS BEEN A CONTINUED TREND TO
SEE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SEMO EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLANVIEWS THERE ISN'T MUCH
SIGN OF INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PRETTY LOW. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FORGO THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING
TO AN END WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THERE ARE STILL SIGNALS OF THIS IN THE GUIDANCE. THERE
MAY BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT TIED
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH WHILE THREE QUARTERS TO 1 INCH IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTING TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALSO COME WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WHILE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS ARE STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THAT EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES MAKING A RETURN TO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY, IT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH
ALOFT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS SETTLING IN AT EACH TAF SITE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
DOWN TO 200FT OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITIES AROUND OR LOWER THAN
1/4. LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN VISIBILITY AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN SITES AND WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITH CEILINGS STAYING IN THE IFR RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ MONDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
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