104  
FXUS63 KPAH 192246  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WITH HARDLY ANY LIGHTNING APPROACHING  
AND JUST INTO OUR CWFA IN SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC  
ISSUED A MCD FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER, PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE  
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA, AS ML CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO  
BE AROUND 1000 J/KG, WITH WARMER MID TROP (H5) TEMPS WARMER THAN  
-10C LOWERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR AREA. 0-6KM BULK  
SHEAR STILL RESPECTABLE. THAT AND THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL DRY  
AIR MIGHT RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (PULSE SEVERE)  
IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN A BROKEN LINE OR SEGMENTS. BUT OVERALL  
THINGS NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE  
CASE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR MORE.  
 
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS  
EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION. DRY AND A BIT COOLER  
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DRY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT  
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH A  
DRY ATMOSPHERE. LOWER HUMIDITY MONDAY AS WELL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SOLUTIONS  
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS  
THE CONUS, BUT THE GFS STILL GENERALLY DEPICTED THE SOUTHEASTERN  
CONUS RIDGE AS SOMEWHAT WEAKER, AND THUS OUR AREA COULD PERHAPS BE  
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
THIS WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD  
INTO THE MIDWEST, BUT FIRST WILL BE DAMPED BY A VIGOROUS CYCLONE  
MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE. AT THE SURFACE, A  
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST  
AREA LATE TUE, PROVIDING SOME FUEL FOR INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT, FORCING ASSOCIATED  
WITH A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FLOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST,  
COMBINED WITH A ROBUST, MOISTENING LOW LEVEL JET, SHOULD SET OFF A  
BAND OR BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY LATER ON TUE. WIND  
SHEAR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME  
TSTMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO AND SOUTHWESTERN IL,  
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IF THE TIMING OF INSTABILITY  
AND BULK SHEAR OVERLAP ENOUGH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE  
PRIMARY HAZARD.  
 
AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDS  
NORTHWARD ON WED, THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT UPDRAFTS ACROSS OUR  
REGION, AND THUS COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF TSTMS. ANY LINGERING  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS, MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,  
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL.  
 
THE BLEND SUPPLIED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THU IN THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, IN CASE AN MCS CREEPS INTO OUR REGION  
(MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS). OVER THE WEEKEND, A  
SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD EVEN SINK INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR, BUT THIS  
IS NOT CERTAIN. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS TO ALLOW A FEW  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM, MOIST,  
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TUE ON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER EAST OF THE OHIO AND WABASH  
VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SETTLE  
DOWN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD  
PREVAIL AFTER SUNSET.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-  
080>094.  
 
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-  
087-100-107>112-114.  
 
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-  
085>088.  
 
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...KH  
AVIATION...KH  
 
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