545
FXUS63 KPAH 121733
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT OR
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH, STRONGEST OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST
IN. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH (50-60% CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THAT WOULD BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE (60%-80%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE
IS ROUGHLY A 20-40% CHANCE THAT UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S!
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE LOWS DIP BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE RAPID ROLLERCOASTER OF EARLY SPRING LOOKS LIKELY TO APPLY
TO THE REST OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG 150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET IS STORMING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY THAT WILL
SPIN UP A FAST MOVING "MANITOBA MAULER" INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP OUR WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE. AS THE
SUN STARTS TO COME UP GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT A VERY STRONG AND LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH SPINS UP A
VERY DEEP LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AND TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN MSLPS AROUND 990, BUT DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAVE PAINTED SURFACE LOWS DEEPENING TOWARDS
980 MB AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND IOWA. THIS
CREATES AN EXCEPTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS AHEAD OF A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS
PAINTED INTO THE UPPER 50S, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. IF THE DEWPOINTS OVERACHIEVE AND END
UP CLOSER TO 60 OR 62 WE WOULD HAVE A RATHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND OR ISOLATED TORNADO WITH FAIRLY DEEP
DECENT MOISTURE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ENTRAINMENT RELATED
ISSUES. IT HARKENS A BIT TO THE 3-3-2023 DAY WITH VERY MODEST
CAPE BUT DEEP MIXING AND EXCEPTIONAL WINDFIELDS. GRADIENT LEVEL
WINDS OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY IF NOTHING ELSE.
ONCE THE LOW CLEARS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT LOOKS TO DROP US BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
A WHILE. RESIDUAL LIFT AND MOISTURE UNDER THE TROUGH AND FROM
LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING LOOK TO GIVE US A REASONABLE
CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. EXCEPTIONALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS, AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA, LOOK TO FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR NARROW WINDOW FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND TO EMERGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT
BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THAT WHEN COMPARING IT TO OTHER
SIMILAR STRENGTH LOWS THAT THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED. WE HAVE A
COUPLE OF COLD DAYS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THINGS
START TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH WIND DIRECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH 2-3
KFT WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 50 KTS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE MORE MODEST
BUT GUSTS MAY BREAK THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE MODERATE BUT STILL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING POST-SUNRISE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page