131
FXUS63 KPAH 291134
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
534 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WAVE OF DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30-70% OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND A 40-80% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS OF
-10 OR LOWER ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC
AIR'S ARRIVAL. THERE IS NOW A 25-50% OF A DUSTING OF SNOW
FALLING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A 15-25% OF
ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW ON SATURDAY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THERE IS NOW A POTENTIAL (20-40%) OF
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
VERY CHILLY BUT QUIET DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE AR/TN BORDERS MAY SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING, BUT
AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD,
WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW PACK MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.
THE MUCH-ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AT 850 MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -10 TO -15C DURING THE DAY (AROUND
THE 5TH TO 10TH PERCENTILES). MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST
BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ROBUST CAA AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING ABOUT A 25-50% CHANCE
OF A TRACE/DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR, THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE IN THE INSTABILITY OR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED
FOR MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WOULD CAUSE A
GREATER RISK OF TRAVEL IMPACTS, BUT SOMETIMES THESE SETUP DO NOT
BECOME AS APPARENT UNTIL A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER VORTICITY MAX PIVOTING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST IN AND THE KY PENNYRILE ON SATURDAY, AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL (15-25%) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THIS AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PEAK OF THE ARCTIC COLD WILL BE ON SATURDAY, AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WHEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40-80% OF WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F OR LOWER. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL
FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20C, WHICH IS AROUND THE 1ST PERCENTILE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 10S TO
LOWER 20S. AS THE DEEP TROUGHING BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST, H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER
TO NORMAL LATE JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY VALUES, BUT WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. GOING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. HOWEVER, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, LED BY THE GFS, IS
STARTING TO PICK UP ON A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE MID-
TO DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STANDS NOW INCLUDES A
20-40% CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DURING THIS TIME, INCLUDING
LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, PLAIN RAIN. WITH NEARLY A WEEK UNTIL
THIS DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS, THE BEST THING TO DO WILL BE TO CHECK
BACK ON THE FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
THE SPECIFICS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE GREATLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, A MIX OF MID- AND UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME
MVFR BASES IN MIDDLE TN MAY EVENTUALLY IMPACT CGI, PAH, AND OWB
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14-18Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. INTRODUCED PERIODS OF 6SM -SHSN ACTIVITY AT
ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03-12Z FRIDAY WITH PROB30 GROUPS
FOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E-NE AROUND
5-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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