997
FXUS63 KPAH 162322
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING (40-80% CHANCES), WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCES (30-55%) FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON (30-40%
CHANCES), THEN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (70-85% CHANCES) WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD READINGS FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN WE
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER FLOW OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS
ARE ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF RICHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ARE YIELDING 3-6KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO 7.5 DEGC. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AT ABOUT 30 TO 35 KTS AND SHOULD
IMPROVE SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES ARE AROUND 2000 TO
2500 J/KG. THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HAIL,
AND FAIRLY MODEST LOOKING RADAR PRESENTATIONS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED HAIL WITH ACTIVITY STARTING OVER MO. LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SOME WIND DAMAGE/DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS. GENERALLY EXPECTING STORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND BRING A FEW HOURS THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS (WIND/HAIL) MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS LOWER END
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW BUT BETTER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THE PEAK OF ACTIVITY
IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT RELATIVE MINIMA
FOR HEATING WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT DEEP
AND LOW LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY THERMODYNAMIC CHANGES THAT MIGHT INCREASE OUR
CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE STORMS SATURDAY SWEEPING IN
MORE SEASONABLE AIR. COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE THINGS START TO WARM UP AS WE APPROACH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AS OF THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT CGI FOR
ADDITIONAL TSRA AFTER 00Z FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE UNCERTAIN AT PAH
BUT ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO INCLUDE THIS
POTENTIAL. REDUCED CIGS AND VISBY CAN BE EXPECTED IN NEAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVENTUALLY ALL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 9-12 KTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD
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