890
FXUS63 KPAH 282252
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BETWEEN 2 TO 7
PM, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES IS POSSIBLE,
WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES LOCALLY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TREND MORE SEASONABLE LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRIDAY, BUT MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A 994 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN SPC'S SLIGHT RISK IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY IS THE GREATEST AREA OF
CONCERN BETWEEN 2 TO 7 PM. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STORMS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHT WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM AND 50 TO 60 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
MEAGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONVECTION OVER ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE MOISTURE RETURN
NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER NORTH, BUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS PROGGED BETWEEN
0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES, BUT THERE IS 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
1.50 INCHES LOCALLY WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO RUNOFF ON
ROADWAYS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING TO 850 MB,
SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF
REACHING 25 MPH ON THE EPS. BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES SUPPRESSED, BUT THERE REMAINS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. THE GEFS HAS TRENDED MORE SOUTH, BUT STILL
SQUEEZES OUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WHILE
THE EPS KEEPS THINGS DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLIGHT ZONES, SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AND FURTHER
DETERIORATE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. BASES/CIGS WILL BECOME RESTRICTED
AT TIMES, AND PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT UPON ITS PASSAGE. VSBYS WILL
RESTRICT TO MVFR AND HAVE LOWER RESTRICTED POTENTIAL. FINALLY
THE PCPN DWINDLES, WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTINESS OUT OF THE
NORTH, AND WHILE LOW BASES LINGER INTO TMRW, SOME OVERALL
IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE NOTED TOWARD IF NOT REALIZED INTO VISUAL
FLIGHT RULES BY/DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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