053
FXUS63 KPAH 282301
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
601 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
20- 30 MPH. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF RHS LESS THAN 30%
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE A
CONCERN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THERE IS GENERALLY A 20-40% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2"
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 25-40% CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1" OR
MORE ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY PUSHES EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING, LEADING TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
70S TOMORROW (UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). WITH RHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THERE IS GENERALLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF RHS LESS THAN
30% FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH A
GENERALLY 30-50% CHANCE OF REACHING 85 DEGREES ON TUESDAY (THE
WARMEST DAY). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-30 MPH)
THROUGH TUESDAY. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES COME BACK DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL.
THE FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES PERSIST FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, NBM MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH POPS ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
RANGES FROM 2.5" TO 3.5". CLOSER TO 2" MIGHT BE A BETTER ESTIMATE
GIVEN NBM'S 72 HR PRECIP SHOWING A GENERALLY 20-40% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 2" BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES OF GREATER THAN AN
ADDITIONAL 1" ON SATURDAY AT GENERALLY 25-40%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...JGG
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