798
FXUS63 KPAH 112348
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SEEING WIND CHILL READINGS
BELOW 15 DEGREES IS ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
- A COUPLE SMALL CHANCES (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID
20S. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH BREEZE THAT WIND CHILL READINGS MY
END UP IN THE MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO WITH ONLY AROUND A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT WIND CHILLS DROP LOWER THAN THAT.
THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOMEWHAT FLATTER (THOUGH STILL
TROUGHED) UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AND EVEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
TUESDAY. FOR COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE'S EVEN ABOUT A 40-50%
CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY!!
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE QUAD STATE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD; HOWEVER, ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY FILTER IN BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO TRANSITION THE RAIN OVER
TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING AROUND BETWEEN 0.1-0.3
INCHES OF SNOW IS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT OVER THE PENNYRILE INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO WITH ICE EXPECTED IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND THE
SHALLOW WARM LAYER COOLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS.
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WITH A STRONG WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR DETAILS ON THAT SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THAT TIME AND THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEP THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
OF QPF SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD STATE FOR SATURDAY. JUST WORTH NOTING
FOR NOW AND SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250 AND NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO
LIGHT S TO SW, THEN SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 14Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...RST
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