063
FXUS63 KPAH 300552
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1252 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
PEAKING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 60
TO 80% CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 35 MPH LOCALLY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH ONLY A 30
TO 50% CHANCE OF TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY.
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO PERSIST TODAY
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PROGGED TO
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT STRUGGLES TO REACH THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AROUND OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
60S. DEEP LAYER MIXING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 35 MPH. THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH LOCALLY BY THE
EPS IS 60 TO 80%. HAVE INCREASED NBM WINDS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT MIXING IS LIKELY TO OVERACHIEVE
AGAIN, MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR WHICH COULD
MEAN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN WITH RH VALUES ABOVE
30%. HAVE TRENDED DEWPOINTS LOWER WITH THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE
AS THERE WILL REMAIN A ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER, ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT ONLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY HAS
ALSO TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY, IT NO LONGER IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. IN FACT, ALL 84 HOURS OF THE NAM DOES
NOT SHOW A SINGLE DROP OF RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS HINTING AT ONLY SPORADIC WAA RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE ECWMF/ICON STILL TRIES
TO BRING THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE FA WHICH WOULD MEAN
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO IS CORRECT,
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ONLY A HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY AS A 500 MB LOW DIGS EAST OF SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AT THE SFC. THE FORCING AND LIFT REMAINS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE STILL IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IF THE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. THE ML PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME
VERY LOW CHANCES, BUT OVERALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO BE
CONCERNING. NBM RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 50 TO 60% IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL BY THE
NBM IS NOW PROGGED BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER FOR
MOST OF THE FA WITH A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES BY
SUNDAY. THE RAIN AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF THAT IS NEEDED. WHILE THE NBM SHOWS PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE FALLING FOR AT LEAST HALF THAT DURATION WHICH
COULD MEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES TRENDING EVEN LOWER WITH TOTAL QPF.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK TO RETURN ON SUNDAY TO END THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN SCT-BKN STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN 12-16Z. AT CGI AND PAH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME, SO
HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS HERE.
THESE CLOUD BASES WILL GRADUALLY RISE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 17-20Z. WINDS WILL BE S OVERNIGHT AROUND 7-12 KTS, AND
WILL BECOME MORE SW AFTER 12-15Z AND INCREASE. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
RELAX.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
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