538
FXUS63 KPAH 032314
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE (50-80% CHANCE
IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS) BEFORE IT EXITS
TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
LARGE AND BROAD TROUGHING TAKES UP MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PINWHEEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE MOMENTUM OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TAKE IT TO THE
EAST AND A COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME MODERATE WARM-AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LEADING TO A SLOWLY SCATTERING STRATUS TO
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO
SPARK OFF AMID THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT THE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMICS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR
THEM TO BUILD MUCH BEYOND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR IN THE MORNING AS
THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INSTABILITY NEVER GETS TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH POOR MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE MID 500-1000
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 WITH A
FAIRLY LARGE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH SO HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY
LOOKS LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OR SO OF RAIN LOOKS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE.
THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM PUT US BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR A
FEW DAYS. BY LATE NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS WARM UP AMID DRY WEATHER
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. CLOUD BASES WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR TERRITORY
DURING THE MORNING AND WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS, BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DO SO LATER IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST AT
LEAST. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SP
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