045
FXUS63 KPAH 080523
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS WEEKEND NEAR 80F, WITH BEST
SUCH CHANCES SATURDAY IN SEMO AT 60-80%.
- BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR TONIGHT, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF
GETTING AROUND 1/2" QPF ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR; AND AGAIN
SUNDAY, WITH 1/4" OR LESS AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED REGION-
WIDE (ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF QPF EXCEEDING 1/4").
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
TAKES SHAPE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF
AND RESULT IN SOME RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES 10-15 MPH, PERHAPS
PUSHING SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 OR INTO THE LOWER 20S MPH,
ESP IN SEMO. HIGHS RESPOND BY PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ENCOUNTERS DEW POINTS THAT HAVE PRIMED
UP INTO THE LOWER 50S BY THIS EVENING, BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY
DRIVING ITS MOVEMENT IS DISPLACED WELL TO OUR EAST, SO ONLY
GENERAL RISK THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED HERE AS BOTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS MORE OR LESS
DECAYS UPON ITS SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE IT HOLDS TOGETHER ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE UPWARDS TO ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHWEST IN.
SATURDAY OFFERS A NICE RECOVERY DAY BETWEEN THAT SYSTEM'S
DEPARTURE AND THE NEXT SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION THAT IMPACTS US MAINLY
ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT/FOLLOWING CHANCE OF RAIN. IN FACT,
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF HITTING 80F OVER A WARM
WEEKEND, WITH THE DESI SUGGESTING A 60-80% CHANCE OF REALIZING
80F TEMPERATURES IN SEMO, TAPERING TO ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF
THE SAME IN OUR COOLEST NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE), WHERE IT'LL STILL RUN UP INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S.
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TRENDING IS FOR LOWER POPS AND LOWER QPF
FOR THE SUNDAY RAIN CHANCE...NOW LOOKING AT BEST POPS IN THE
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE ACROSS SEMO, WITH SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE CATS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ELSE. QPF IS LIKELY GOING TO
BE 1/4" OR LESS WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PASSAGE, WITH ONLY
A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1/4".
EXPECT A DIP BACK TO SEASONAL COOLNESS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THEREAFTER, WARMING
THRU THE 70S IN THE MID WEEK AND PUSHING THE 80S AGAIN BY WEEK'S
END. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, SO BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD BE MOVING TOWARD A MORE SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURE REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES WILL KICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS TO THE EAST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY NEAR
ENOUGH FOR LOW PROBS MENTION BY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT KMVN AFTER 03Z AND EVEN THEN KEPT A
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FORECAST CONTINUING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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