549
FXUS63 KPAH 171952
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 80-100% LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT CARMEL TO MARION, CAPE
GIRARDEAU, AND POPLAR BLUFF.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CONDITIONS TODAY HAVE TRENDED DRIER, AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS YET
TO BEGIN. POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN TO MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
BEEN BREEZY OUT OF THE SSW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30MPH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS LIKELY (CAPE GIRARDEAU AT 86 WOULD SEEM TO
HAVE THE MOST LIKELY RECORD TO BE REACHED).
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SWEEPING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. CAPE DROPS OFF AFTER SUNSET, AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS. BEST CHANCE
FOR A SEVERE STORM (WITH DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD) WOULD THUS BE CONCENTRATED AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST, WHERE A D1 SPC SLIGHT RISK REMAINS. SOME THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND, MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FINALLY DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS NEAR 40. A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO MAY TRAIL A FRONT
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DOWN TOWARDS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT POPS ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. A WARMING TREND
OCCURS MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. AN END OF WEEK (FRIDAY/SATURDAY) FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS LIKELY WITH FAIRLY BROAD MODEL SUPPORT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
REMOVAL FROM THE TAF. BREEZY SSW WINDS CONTINUE WITH SKY
COVERAGE GREATEST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATE NIGHT, WITH VSBY DROPS
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE
STORMS AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERLY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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