312
FXUS63 KPAH 022306
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE BUT LIGHT
RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. LATE NEXT WEEK THE PROBABILITIES ARE CLIMBING FOR ABOVE
NORMAL (BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HOT) TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING PRODUCED BETWEEN
A HALF INCH NEAR I-64 TO HOT SPOTS OVER 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN IS CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BEHIND IT.
THE SURFACE FRONT RUNS FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO ABOUT
MADISONVILLE, KY AT 1PM AND WILL CONTINUE AS LOW MARCH SOUTH.
OVERRUNNING ASCENT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT IS REDEVELOPING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THAT REDEVELOPMENT
COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBTLE ASCENT ABOVE
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN GRUNGY LOW CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER LITTLE SHOT OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES
MONDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND SHIFTS OUR FLOW A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THE TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK IS UPWARD AND THE
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GOING BACK ABOVE 80 DEGREES IS ABOVE 50%
AND CLIMBING. OVERALL CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEPT THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GOING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT AND KEEPING LOWER CIGS
AROUND BUT WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE.
MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN THE IFR CIGS AT THIS POINT BUT
THEY WILL BE STUBBORN AND HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE TOMORROW
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. WINDS ARE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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