560
FXUS63 KPAH 041814
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
114 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH 80-100% CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
- CHANCES (30% NORTH TO 60-70% SOUTHEAST) OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDERS,
THEN SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE ONE TO ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
RANGE. CHANCES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE 60-80%, AND GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES ARE 15-40%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY, AND WARM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP TO THE NORTHWEST MAINLY ON
AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEY
ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST OWING TO WEAK FORCING
AND VERY DRY AIR BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE 850-700MB
LEVEL. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES COULD CHANGE THAT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON MAINLY AROUND MT. VERNON, IL BUT BASED ON DOWNSTREAM
SOUNDINGS IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
APPROACHES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. JET-LEVEL ASCENT IS MUTED WITH
MOSTLY A ZONAL 120-130 KT FLOW FROM THE GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES.
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP THERE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CREEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TRY TO BREAK ABOVE 60 BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM OBS IN TEXAS.
THE INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE IS COLLOCATED WITH FAIRLY POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, INSOLATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY HEAVY
CLOUD COVER, THETA-E ADVECTION IS MODEST AT BEST, AND RAINFALL
SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME COOLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DESTABILIZATION IS AS USUAL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THERE
IS GOOD DEEP LAYER AND MODESTLY SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
SOME WIND/TORNADO THREAT BUT IT REALLY LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR NOW
FOR THAT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. QPFS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES TO GET OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST OF
THE AREA.
WE STAY COOL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWING FROPA BEFORE
RETURNING TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A BROADER/STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PRODUCES ANOTHER FRONT AND RAIN/STORM CHANCE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHORT DURATION BETWEEN WAVES HOWEVER LEAD TO A
VERY SHORT DURATION OF MOISTURE RETURN AND FOR NOW AT LEAST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
APPROACH MVN BUT THE ODDS SEEMS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A FACTOR MOST EVERYWHERE BY THE
LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEW TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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