448
FXUS63 KPAH 081950
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SOME RISK
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND
105 DEGREES AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
- WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS, WHICH IS
PROMOTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST MO. WE EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN WESTERN KY (MLCAPE 1500-
2000). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PWAT VALUES,
THUS HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONERN WITH PERHAPS SOME WET LOADED
MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. WITH HIGH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS, AND PWATS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, THESE WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
ON TUESDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE SETUP WILL PLAY
OUT. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REMNANT OUTLOW,
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING MCV MAY HELP FORCE RENEWED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. FURTHER WEST, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN SOME POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDING. DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 70S COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SHOULD PROMOTE HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING 105 AT TIMES.
THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HOT/HUMID AIRMASS, INSTBILITY
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG AND COUPLED WITH AT LEAST MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPAOBLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND WILL FEATURE A WEAK RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FRONT
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNNON, BUT
THIS DRY TIME WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY FALL AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FORCING WILL BRING RENEWED THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THIS ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS THAT MEAN LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER, MEANING STORMS SHOULD HAVE QUICKER MOTIONS AND THUS LESS
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS IS WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WITH THIS SYSTEM (20-30 KNOTS), THUS WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY
HIGH THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS GUIDANCE IS DISPERSIVE ON THE DEGREE
OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE REGION, SO FOR NOW WILL
CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHILE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE QUAD STATE TO THE NORTHEAST,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS
TIME. CIGS ARE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH PATCHES OF IFR IN THE EAST.
VSBY DROPS WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING ONCE SHOWERS END. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AND GENERALLY HOVER AROUND
10KTS DURING THE DAY AND A LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ080-084-
088-092-093.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ002>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>004.
DISCUSSION...WFO LMK
AVIATION...WFO PAH
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