127  
FXUS63 KPAH 280600  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE IS ONGOING, AND WILL ACCELERATE AS WE  
HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PCPN WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP/SPREAD  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SHORT RES CAM'S BLOW UP WARM  
ADVECTION OVERRUNNING RAINS OVER THE AREA, AND DAILY THE AXIS OF  
HEAVIEST QPF WOBBLES A BIT TO THE NORTH, TODAY BEING NO  
EXCEPTION. AM THEREFORE COMFORTABLE WITH PREVIOUS NORTHWARD  
EXPANSION OF FFA, WITH THE WATCH COUNTIES ACCOUNTING FOR ALL 2+  
INCH STORM TOTAL COUNTIES. THIS EXCLUDES ONLY THE 5 NORTHERN-MOST  
COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN IL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN SEMO WATCH  
COUNTIES BEING LOWER IS SUPERSEDED BY 1/4 TO ISOLATED 1/2 INCH  
TOTALS RECEIVED THUS FAR, PUTTING THEIR STORM TOTALS CLOSER TO 2  
INCHES AS WELL. CONTINUE TO SEE CONCERNING SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED  
LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ENHANCING 6 HOUR TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER, WHERE FORECAST AMOUNTS EXCEED THE 99TH  
PERCENTILE. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAKE US CONSIDER ADDING  
WABASH AND EDWARDS COUNTIES, BUT SINCE THIS AXIS HAS WOBBLED SO  
MUCH, AND APPEARS TO BE SETTLING SOUTH OF THERE, WE'VE LEFT THE  
HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW.  
 
ONCE CONCERN WE HAVE IN TODAY'S MODELING IS THE NORTHWARD BUMP AND  
NEWLY AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KY  
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD OFFSET THE NORTHWARD  
DISPLACEMENT OF THE FIRST QPF AXIS, AND YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE  
IN A GOOD 2+ INCH RAINFALL BEING ABLE TO BE ACHIEVED ACROSS THE  
SOUTH AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY INCLUDE  
SOME SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY, AS WE SEE DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE  
LOWER 60S ALONG/EAST OF THE LAKES, WHERE FORECAST HIGHS PUSH INTO  
THE MID-UPPER 60S NOW. THUS THE SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF 0-1KM  
MU CAPE MAY BE TAPPABLE, AS THE PRIMARY STORM FRONT MAKES ITS  
APPROACH/PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. WE SEE THE LATEST DAY 2  
SWO JUST ISSUED NUDGES THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THIS AREA AS WELL,  
SO THEY ARE OBVIOUSLY SEEING/THINKING THE SAME.  
 
THE EVENT WINDS DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH  
MONDAY OFFERING A POST SYSTEM PAUSE AND A RETURN TO A SEASONALLY  
COOLER AIRMASS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24  
HOURS, WE STILL PUT IT ABOUT AVERAGE WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES  
STILL OUTSTANDING.  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A  
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S., FORECAST  
TO BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF  
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.  
EACH ONE WILL GIVE THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA A RELATIVELY BRIEF  
CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE EMANATES FROM AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
OVER ARIZONA ON SUNDAY THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY.  
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH  
OTHER MODEL SETS IN DEPICTING THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. FOR THE  
IMMEDIATE REGION, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS PRIMARILY FROM LATE TUESDAY  
MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THE RAIN MAY MISS  
THE AREA COMPLETELY TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE  
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH, AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF  
RAIN.  
 
AFTER SOME TIME TO DRY OUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SECOND CLOSED  
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE IN THE  
WEEK, REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA REGION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST  
ECMWF/ECENS APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER  
MODEL SETS IN SHOWING THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. SIMILAR TO THE  
FIRST LOW, BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF THE AREA, AND THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THE RAIN MAY COMPLETELY MISS  
US TO THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY ARE TARGETED FROM THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
THE PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE  
EXTENDED SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR  
BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
IFR/INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT  
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO OCCUR. SOME  
TEMPORARY CIG INCREASES TO MVFR MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY  
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. IN THE AFTERNOON, AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE  
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO  
MVFR/VFR WILL BE SEEN. AS THE WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT, THEY ARE  
FORECAST TO PICK UP FIRST AROUND DAYBREAK SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER,  
EVENTUALLY GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE TN STATE LINE, THEN PICK  
UP LATER ELSEWHERE, BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY. LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED  
TO BE ON THE SPARSE SIDE, BUT ITS LIKELIHOOD WAS NOT DEEMED HIGH  
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
FOR ILZ081>086-088-089-092-093.  
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR ILZ087-090-091-094.  
 
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.  
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR MOZ112-114.  
 
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
FOR INZ081-082.  
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR INZ085>088.  
 
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING  
FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
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