054
FXUS63 KPAH 171725
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LOTS OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE REGION
TODAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A 20-60% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE RISK REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TODAY
WILL BE THE QUIETEST WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH
BREEZE DEVELOPING. WE SHOULD STAY DRY DURING THE DAY. HOISTED A
TARGETED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SEMO/S IL LARGE LAKES WITH US
RIGHT AT CRITERIA THERE.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID STILL. THERE IS AN EMERGING
TREND FOR A LITTLE MID LEVEL DCVA EMBEDDED IN A WEAK JET RIPPLE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. OVER SEMO AND SOUTHWEST IL DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS AT LEAST SUFFICIENT IN THE GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS FOR SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE OK, WITH MLCAPES 1500 J/KG OR SO
AMID FAIRLY WEAK MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON BALANCE IT
LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH THUNDERSTORMS AND AS A
RESULT SEVERE THAN 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO, BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FORCING MAY BE TOO WEAK FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE DAY. ANY WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN
ADVERTISED WOULD ALSO PROBABLY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. THE SHEAR GETS A LITTLE BETTER IN THE EVENING WITH A
LITTLE STRONGER FORCING AND RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER
OVERNIGHT.
THE INTERACTION OF THIS INITIAL WAVE AND THE BROADER LIFT FROM
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IS COMPLICATED TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PERIOD OF
MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES INITIALLY AS YOU WOULD EXPECT BEHIND THE
WAVE THAT CROSSES INTO PEAK HEATING BEFORE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE
IN. AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHEAR REMAINS PRETTY MARGINAL AT THAT
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN REACHES 1.8 TO 1.9. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT DURATION AND
COVERAGE AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO POINT TO A
RELATIVELY LOW/NON-RISK FOR FLOODING FOR NOW.
RECENT TRENDS SHOW ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE THAT TRIES
TO PULL HEAT AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER THE TUESDAY
MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE GFS WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING IT JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT
THE TREND DEFINITELY SEEMS TO BE TOWARDS A LITTLE MORE
HEAT/HUMIDITY AND DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 18-26KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KMVN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT ANY SITE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE MORNING AND GUST SIMILAR
TO THIS AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075-081-
085.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ100.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS
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