731
FXUS63 KPAH 180621 CCA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER (10-15%
CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF SEEING A
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE
OF BRIEFLY EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG I-64.
- AFTER A BRIEF COLD BLAST FRIDAY, ANOTHER WARM UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL YIELD A 50-60% CHANCE OF REACHING 60 DEGREES BY
TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY IS EVEN HIGHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF DAILY SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 982 MB MOVING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. THE ENS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 MPH IS 20-30% ALONG
I-64 WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC BLENDED FORECAST IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRIEFLY REACHING CRITERIA LOCALLY. THE ECMWF EFI VALUES OF 0.7-0.8
SUPPORT ANOMALOUS WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR THESE REASONS,
LEANED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AS THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN
BUFKIT IS QUITE ROBUST. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION WHEN THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AS MOST WIND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA, WITH A 80-100% PROBABILITY OF RAIN
OCCURRING BY THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS NOW BARLEY MENTIONED BY THE
NBM WITH ONLY A 10-15% PROBABILITY, AS THE 0Z HREF REMAINS BELOW 100
J/KG OF MUCAPE. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNLIKELY AS IT IS
NOW QUESTIONABLE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT EVEN
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS A ELEVATED SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST.
WITH THE RISK OF CONVECTION NOW EVEN LOWER, QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER WITH THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST RANGING FROM 0.20-0.60 INCHES.
THE PROBABILITY OF PICKING UP A HALF INCH IS 60-80% WHILE ONLY 10-
30% FOR ONE INCH.
MUCH COLDER AIR USHERS IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DIPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL BEFORE QUICKLY
REBOUNDING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS NEARING 10C AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
IN FACT, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES BY NEXT
TUESDAY AND EVEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES BY THURSDAY. A SERIES OF
SUBTLE IMPULSES THAT ROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT BRING A 20-40% CHANCE
OF DAILY SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS ISSUANCE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF ISSUANCE.
MAY END UP NEEDING TO START MVFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED AT EACH SITE. ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PULLED BACK A BIT ON THE THUNDER CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. ALSO ADJUSTED TIMING FOR WIND
SHIFT AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page