752
FXUS63 KPAH 052357
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF AND ON PLAIN RAINY DAY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A SMALL RISK (5-10% OR LESS) OF STORMS BECOMING
STRONG/SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH HAIL THE CONCERN.
- RAINFALL RATES STILL LOOK TO BE TOO LOW/SPREAD OUT FOR ANY
REAL FLOODING CONCERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MODEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE TO COMBINE TO
PRODUCE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY TRANSLATED TO A
PLAIN 'OL RAINY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. A SURFACE LOW OVER OK/TX
FILLS AS IT TRACKS THIS WAY THIS AFTERNOON. JET-LEVEL FORCING IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED IF NOT CONVERGENT REFLECTED IN 500MB HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS/RAIN AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. DEWPOINTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST ARE A LITTLE BETTER, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR JUST
A LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IS THERE BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY NARROW WINDOW. WITH THE MUCAPE, SOMEWHAT LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND AVAILABLE WESTERLY SHEAR A HAILSTORM
OR TWO WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN IT WOULD APPEAR.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE COOL OFF FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE
RETURN FLOW STARTS BACK UP ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH QUICKLY. MOISTURE RETURN IS GREATLY LIMITED AND IT LOOKS
LIKE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH THIS FROPA DESPITE
THE TIME OF YEAR. WE DO THE SAME THING ROUGHLY OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE RETURN IN THE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL
PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A PRETTY GOOD RAIN/THUNDER CHANCE SUNDAY.
THERE ARE SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCE THAT ONCE RESOLVED WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE A FAIRLY FOCUSED PERIOD OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. STILL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A
FAVORABLE SEVERE PATTERN WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AGAIN. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE PAH AND OWB AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND THEN
LOW VFR FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 12-18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N
AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO UP 20 KTS THROUGH 9-12Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS
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