005
FXUS63 KPAH 010725
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING COOLER ON SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LOWS IN THE
30S MONDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE A 40-60% CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST.
- THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 40 MPH ON THURSDAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE KENTUCKY PURCHASE. WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN AT LEAST 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A MILD START TO THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES
WILL IMPACT THE FA TODAY, AS THE CAMS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH MAINLY
THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY ROBUST ON THE
RAP13, WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A LULL
THEN OCCURS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH AND A WARM SECTOR REGIME PREVAILS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING WILL FEATURE A 70-80%
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK HAS INCREASED WITH SPC'S D1 MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5)
COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. THE TREND ON BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL JET AND A 50 KT LLJ, THE KINEMATICS ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE. GIVEN MLCAPE OF 700-1000 J/KG, LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM AND SFC-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200 M2/S2,
THE MAIN CONCERN IS ISOLATED SEVERE SUPERCELLS THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
DESPITE THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK, THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY END UP BEING MORE IMPACTFUL DUE TO
THE LIMITED STORM COVERAGE. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE WIND GUSTS
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE KENTUCKY PURCHASE.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN AT LEAST 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE FA, ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT NBM'S POPS
SEEM A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE DEPARTING.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER LULL BETWEEN DISTURBANCES OCCURS.
WITH THAT SAID, A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 80-90% CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IF
THE PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER LOW END SEVERE
WEATHER RISK, BUT THE ML MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
THIS POTENTIAL. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE NBM
LOW ARE PROGGED IN THE 30S. DUE TO THE FASTER TIMING, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOW BE MUCH WEAKER WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, SUPPORTING A 40-60% CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER (BUT REMAIN VFR) OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF MVN AND EVV
AFTER 15-18Z THROUGH 21-24Z. HANDLED THIS WITH A MIX OF PROB30
AND VCSH GROUPS FOR NOW. SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL RELAX TO AROUND
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP AFTER DAYBREAK, SUSTAINED AT
10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
WILL RELAX AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND BACK SLIGHT TO THE S TO SE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
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