790
FXUS63 KPAH 152331
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE MAIN ANTICIPATED HAZARDS.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH A WIND ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE. 35-45 MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING AS MUCH COLDER AIR PLUNGES ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TO
NO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY SURFACES IS POSSIBLE.
- WINTER-LIKE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20'S AND
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A 150+ KNOT UPPER JET ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS LEADING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION. THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IS PRODUCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH NAEFS SHOWING INCREASED V-COMPONENT WIND ANOMALIES. A
992MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO NE KS/SE IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 40+ MPH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME
AREAS HAVE GUSTED TO BETWEEN 50-60 MPH WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDING IN AREA
AND TIME AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SHOWS THE CAP LIFTING AND ERODING INDICATING
THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTENING TAKING PLACE TO OUR WEST.
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS LED TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. A MAJORITY OF THE CAMS ARE
NOW SHOWING DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S IMMEDIATELY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN
MODELED THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW NEAR 500 JOULES OR HIGHER. SHEAR REMAINS
EXCEPTIONAL WITH VERY STRONG WIND MAGNITUDES THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. A BROAD AREA OF 50+ KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE,
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR 30-40 KNOTS. INGREDIENTS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE
FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
IN AN ENHANCED RISK. THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING INTO
A LINE AS ITS MOVES ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING, WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS. SOME CAMS SHOW ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW INTENSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE. THE THINKING IS THAT IT MAY STRUGGLE GIVEN THE CAPPING
INVERSION WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATER THREAT WITH
WINDS OF 60-70 MPH. QLCS TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT
(SOME EVEN STRONG) GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LCL
HEIGHTS ARE A BIT HIGH OWING TO THE LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THIS
IMPACTS THE TORNADO RISK GOING FORWARD. IT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP US FROM SEEING A HIGHER END EVENT ON THE TORNADO SIDE OF
THINGS.
THE FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING BEHIND IT. BY 12Z 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
FALLEN TO BETWEEN -10 AND -14C. SOME MOISTURE ON THE BACK END OF
THE SYSTEM MAY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO BE NON-IMPACTFUL WITH
ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE MORE
IMPACTFUL STORY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO TEENS. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. GRADUAL WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BY
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S. A DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. MUCH NICER WEATHER
CARRIES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT AND
CONVECTION WILL BRING CIG/VISBY RESTRICTIONS WITH IT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-110>112-114.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ100-107>109.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-085-
086.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ082-087-
088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>015-
018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KYZ016-017-019>022.
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