914
FXUS63 KPAH 301717
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S)
AND BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
(60-80%). THERE IS A LOW END THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WEST OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST
(5% OR LESS).
- DAILY CHANCES (20-50%) OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
PATCHY CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST SITES, EN ROUTE TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70, KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS BEARABLE FOR THE TIME BEING. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. IN BETWEEN, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, CROSSING THE
QUAD STATE ON SATURDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE PLUME WILL
BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES IN SEMO BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY, ENTERING FROM THE WEST.
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
APPROACHES AND WARM/COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE CWA. MLCAPE OF
2000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35KTS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
MAINTAIN A D2 MARGINAL RISK FOR THAT AREA, WHILE BOTH CAPE AND
SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF FURTHER EAST.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM ILLINOIS TO INDIANA, A
DRY SLOT INTRUDES INTO THE QUAD STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DEPENDING ON THE FORWARD (EASTWARD) SPEED OF THE LOW,
REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAN PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
STORMS, MAINLY IN THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE AREA. FROM A RAINFALL
PERSPECTIVE, A SLIGHT RISK ERO COVERS MAINLY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FOR FRIDAY, BUT QPF HAS LOWERED TO A QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH (NBM 1" PROBABILITIES OF 20-40% FROM SOUTH TO NORTH)
SO OVERPERFORMING WOULD BE NECESSARY TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETTING CUT OUT OF THE TROUGH, BUT
DIFFER ON HOW IT DRIFTS AFTERWARDS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS STICKS
FURTHER NORTHEAST WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT IN THE MID-SOUTH AND
CANADIAN SENDS IT SOUTHEASTWARD. ENSEMBLES, HOWEVER, SUGGEST
THAT THE GEFS MIGHT BE THE FURTHEST WEST IN POSITIONING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. DAILY, PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN, POPS REMAIN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE CUTOFF
LOW. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE APPEAR TO BE MOST
FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
AREAS, VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY FIND SLIGHT WARMING
(MAINLY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES) AS MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT COOLS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE 90S
MIDWEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
ONGOING SCT-BKN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS LARGELY IN THE 3500-5000FT
RANGE, AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL DURING THE DAY,
KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AROUND 5KTS BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL
LOW-VFR CLOUDS, HIGH CLOUDS EXPAND INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AT THE
VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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