203
FXUS63 KPAH 251127
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM WEEKEND IS FORECAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON
SUNDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AFTER A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEEKEND, A MAJOR SEVERE STORM
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY, BUT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP
THE AREA DRY.
FOR MONDAY, THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY WOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIALLY HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. SBCAPE COULD CLIMB TO
3000-4000J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES
OVER 300M2/S2 AND MUCH OF THAT IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. DEEP MIXING
(OVER 5KFT) COULD MIX OUT THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THE
NBM HAS ONLY MIDDLE 60S OVER ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THE DEWPOINTS AND CAPE VALUES TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST NEAR
KMVN AND WEAKEST NEAR FT CAMPBELL. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
BE IN PLACE, WITH 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY
ADIABATIC. OF COURSE THIS COMES WITH A NICE CAP THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE OVERCOME. THIS PARAMETER SPACE IS DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MANNER OF SEVERE THREATS, INCLUDING VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.
THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER OR MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BE
ELUSIVE WITH THE CAP, GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ABOUT A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE, AND THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT LIKELY
TO BE NORTH OF THE QUAD STATE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES THAT MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL
BE 00Z-06Z TUESDAY, HOW SOON AND HOW FAR EAST DEVELOPMENT WILL
BEGIN IS STILL IN QUESTION.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN MORE
ISOLATED, SUPERCELLS COULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE STORMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS, COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. IF A LINEAR MODE DEVELOPS,
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION AND DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE ALONG IT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ARRIVES TUESDAY. POPS ARE NOW 60-70% OVER MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
INSTABILITY COULD BE DECENT, BUT SHEAR SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK, SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND WITH UPPER
TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHEAST, THEY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS AND BELOW. DEPENDING ON HOW A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
SOME RAIN/SHOWERS COULD REACH AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, THE MORE PERSISTENT REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA, SO WILL LEAVE IT
ALONE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY EXPANSION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
FOG AT MOST SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ082-086>088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ009-
011>013-015>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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