548
FXUS63 KPAH 221057
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER WESTERN KY
THANKS TO GOOD MIXING LEADING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZIER
WINDS, AND IN TURN LOWER RH VALUES.
- A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MONDAY IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED IN THE 15% AREA FOR SEVERE
CHANCES BY SPC. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY. AT
THE SFC WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING AND CONTINUED BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS (PARTICULARLY OVER WEST KY).
THERE ARE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RHS DROPPING INTO THE 25-35% RANGE AND 10-15 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. NBM GENERALLY HAS A
40-70% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES TODAY. TOMORROW NBM HAS A
GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS SQUEEZED OUT, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF A STRONGER CANADIAN BORDER LOW
BRINGS US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. RAIN CHANCES PEAK
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND A 60-90% CHANCE. AMOUNTS HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE NBM WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR TOTALS OF 1"
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER SEMO BY SUNDAY MORNING. NBM
ALSO HAS A 50- 80% CHANCE OF 1,000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER SEMO FRIDAY
AND 30-70% CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN IL, SO A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT!
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ALOFT ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 60-
70% MONDAY AFTERNOON. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OUTLOOKED IN THE 15% AREA FOR MONDAY FOR SEVERE CHANCES. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE ATTENDANT FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
SHOWING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
DAY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK OFF
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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