360  
FXUS63 KPAH 211723  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z AND THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE  
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT  
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE REGION 12Z-15Z, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE COLD  
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND 16Z AND SKIES WILL TEMPORARILY  
CLEAR SHORTLY BEHIND IT.  
 
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WEST  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON OVER  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THESE MOVING PARTS,  
WE STUCK CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS THE SOUTH AND WEST  
EXTENT OF THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.  
THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE  
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT  
HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A BIT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF  
OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS FROM  
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL  
BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
IN ADDITION, THE NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER FRIDAY MAY BE DEEP  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, MAINLY OVER THE  
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. DECIDED TO JUST INCREASE POPS TO  
AROUND 10% FOR NOW AND SEE IF IT BECOMES INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH  
LATER MODEL CYCLES.  
 
A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STORY HEADING  
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN  
KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS THE  
WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN  
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN GENERATING SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT  
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTH. IT WOULD NOT BE THAT BIG OF A SURPRISE TO  
SEE A FEW SHOWERS REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI  
BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR  
NOW.  
 
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THEY ARE  
SUFFICIENT TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE  
FORECAST BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
THEN ELSEWHERE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
ON SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT JUST NORTH OF THE  
PAH FORECAST AREA, EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS. CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,  
WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS  
NORTH DWINDLING TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  
AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION,  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY  
NIGHT. MODELS TAKE THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY  
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY  
MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL SLIDE OVER THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS FROM LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AS WE GET INTO MID WEEK, TIMING OF  
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM GETS MORE CHALLENGING. SOME MODELS ARE  
TRENDING SLOWER, POTENTIALLY KEEPING OUR REGION DRY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
HOWEVER, MODEL BLENDS TREND TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS, WHICH  
SPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE PAH FA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A BIT OF A  
COMPROMISE AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND  
KEPT CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TO ONLY 5  
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTH  
WINDS WILL BRING US BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUESDAY  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, A ROBUST POST-COLD FRONTAL STRATUS DECK  
LOCATED OVER EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO  
THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING IMPACTS TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
TERMINALS (MVN, EVV, OWB). FEW-SCT CU DECKS AROUND 4KFT WILL  
THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT, BECOMING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LOW MVFR  
BY 12Z FRIDAY AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AT CGI, AND PAH, THESE CIG  
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE  
GUSTY FROM THE W-NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AT 9-14 KTS  
WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL RELAX TO 5 KTS OR  
LESS TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DWS  
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...RST  
AVIATION...DWS  
 
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