696
FXUS63 KPAH 150531
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1231 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MODERATING BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
- SMALL CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WHILE INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (80-90%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY REMAINS NORTH OF
US.
- PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
OUR AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SINK SOUTH
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR SPACE WILL BE
GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHERE A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM IS RATHER LIMITED
THOUGH (DEW POINTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 AGAIN) AND MAY BE A
STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET MUCH LIGHTNING GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND PUNCH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT KEEPING THE BEST PARAMETER SPACE
FOR SEVERE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH CONVECTION LIKELY NOT
SNEAKING INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER US THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FAR GONE BY THEN AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. SO WHILE WE MAY END UP
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THE OVERALL THREAT WITH BOTH ROUNDS LOOKS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. WE MAY HAVE SOME SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT THREAT LOOKS QUITE A BIT LOWER NOW WITH
ONLY ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE AT RECEIVING AT LEAST 1".
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT SPREADS RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. NOTICED
THE LREF HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE AT OBSERVING 3" NOW ONLY AROUND
25% WHICH IS BASICALLY HALF OF WHAT IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. UNDER CALM OR LIGHT NW WINDS, SOME PASSING
FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5-7KFT WILL BE INVOF
MVN, EVV, AND OWB. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NW
AROUND 4-8 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN
RELAX MONDAY EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS
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