023
FXUS63 KPAH 190633
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES RISING
15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE (15-25%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE MARCH VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS AN EXPANSIVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS EXTENDS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RISE
TO 15-18C (AROUND THE 95TH-100TH PERCENTILE), SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY EVENING, A POTENT, BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CURRENTLY, ONLY A
15-25% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST
LOOK TO STAY DRY AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCE, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VERY LIGHT.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL LATE MARCH VALUES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE LOW AS WELL, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AFTER SEVERAL DRY
AND WARM DAYS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT ONLY INCREASE TO AROUND 5KTS TOMORROW BEFORE CALMING
AGAIN DURING THE EVENING. BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SCT 8-10KFT CLOUDS MIDDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
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