076
FXUS63 KPAH 151056
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START FEELING MORE LIKE
SUMMER-TIME TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF MID TO UPPER 80S
PUSHING INTO THE LOW 90S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MODEST (30-60%) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN IS
AROUND 40-60% THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST RISKS FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY EMERGE IN
THIS PERIOD, MOSTLY LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WE START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY WITH
HIGHS RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVERYWHERE,
PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. RESIDUAL CAPPING AND DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRY TO HOLD OFF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN HEAT/MOISTURE DOWN LOW. HOWEVER AN UPPER
WAVE DOES BEGIN TO APPROACH IN THE EVENING AND STRETCHED OUT
LOW-END POPS AROUND 00Z IN SEMO/SWRN IL AND SPREAD OUT LOW END
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN POINT IS STILL LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IT IS SUFFICIENT
GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH/WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
TO THINK WE WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TAKING
MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE YOU WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE BIT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON EARLIER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (IF ANY). SHEAR MAY BE
JUST SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT
IT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUITE.
BY MONDAY STRONG TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US
SETTING UP STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS LEADING TO THE START OF A PERIOD OF PROLONGED STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN.. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BEST
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STRONG INSTABILITY
BUILDS SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CHANCES
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AMID A SOUPY AIRMASS.
TUESDAY BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED INTO A SOLUTION
THAT PUTS US IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100-110 KT UPPER
JET. STEADY WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/PERSISTENT
INSTABILITY ARE PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL CAPPING INVERSION SHOWING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. STILL ABOUT 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PRINTS OUT IN
THE LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND FAIRLY DEEP/RICH LOW LAYER MOISTURE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE MODEST WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN SOME
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
DEEP LAYER FLOW AND PWATS OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES, A SATURATED COLUMN
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAPPING SUGGESTS MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, ALTHOUGH WE WOULD NEED QUITE A HEAVY RAIN TO
LEAD TO MUCH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS -MAY- EXPAND
ENOUGH TO IMPACT MVN AND EVV BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS IT
SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AMID PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE THREAT).
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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