461  
FXUS63 KPAH 230432  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF  
IMPACTFUL WEATHER AND OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID  
WEEK.  
 
BEFORE WE ADDRESS THE NEAR TERM, WE SHOULD NOTE THAT WE ARE ENDING  
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SEASON GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF  
SEVERAL FROSTS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. COORDINATION WITH AGRICULTURAL  
EXPERTS TODAY INDICATES THAT LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED  
GOING FORWARD AND THE GROWING SEASON HAS EFFECTIVELY ENDED FOR  
ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE  
OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS  
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEW POINTS  
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT  
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE IMPACT  
TO TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARMER START TO THE  
DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MAKE THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,  
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AS THE CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST FROM  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE APPROACH OF MID  
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE BONA FIDE  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT  
WILL BE COOLER WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND  
WEDNESDAY HIGHS 55 TO 60. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT  
MILDER IN THE BALLPARK OF 40 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
A CONTINUATION OF THIS COOL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE  
LONG TERM. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE WILLA WILL TRACK EAST  
ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB  
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF WILLA, CREATING A  
LARGE 500 MB CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN US. A NOREASTER WILL TRACK  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND, DRAGGING CHILLY AIR  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION.  
 
AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, THE REMNANTS OF WILLA COULD SPREAD RAIN  
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
THE FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS, EXCEPT UP TO 50 PERCENT  
IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KY. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE  
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE  
LOWER AND MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
ON SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF WILLA.  
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND  
ITS SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE I-64  
CORRIDOR. DESPITE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY  
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 500 MB LOW WILL WRAP UP OVER  
THE EASTERN STATES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ANY  
IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE  
MAJORITY OF MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE  
OF THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND COLD 850 TEMPS. A FEW DEGREES  
WERE SHAVED OFF THE MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY HIGH TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH JUST  
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KTS AFTER  
13Z, THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS AFTER 01Z.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RJP  
LONG TERM...MY  
AVIATION...RST  
 
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