820
FXUS63 KPAH 090714
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
114 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH EVEN COLDER AIR SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
- LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT WEST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- AFTER BRIEF MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 60-80% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW 40 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A 991MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, WHICH
HAVE HELPED BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS TO UNSEASONABLY
HIGH LEVELS. IN FACT, THE TEMPERATURE IN PADUCAH WAS 69 DEGREES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH IS THE WARMEST SUCH TEMPERATURE FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY IN THE MONTH OF JANUARY IN AT LEAST 40+ YEARS!
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PIVOTING EASTWARD AT THE MOMENT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER,
BUT JUST ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A FEW OCCASIONAL UPTICKS IN INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTION. SOME SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNTIL
THE CONVECTION FINALLY CLEARS OUR EAST BY AROUND 12Z OR SO.
WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS EARLY WITH DROPPING OR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING, IT'LL BE DRY THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL LEAD TO RAIN DEVELOPING
AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AS IT DOES SO. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS REMAINS NORTHEAST OF US, ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER
60S, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.
A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MODERATION BACK INTO THE
50S BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA WILL INDUCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES
TEND TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENT OF THIS TROUGH INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WELL, SO LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE DONE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR AWHILE NOW. WHILE SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME SMALLER SNOW CHANCES
FOR US, NOTHING EYE-POPPING IS JUMPING OUT AT US JUST YET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SEVERAL BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT,
ENDING BY 12Z IN OUR EAST. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW
VFR OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING IN OUR
NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO THE MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE
DAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY LATER AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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