477
FXUS63 KPAH 211048
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BREAK MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
MARCH.
- A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING A 25-50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WILL WARM UP AGAIN TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (25-50%) OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A RARE AND UNUSUALLY WARM PERIOD OF EARLY SUMMER HEAT IS
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. AS THE EXTREME HEAT DOME ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES
AT 850 MB WILL RISE TO 18-22C TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS PRETTY
MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY FOR MARCH IN THIS PART
OF THE WORLD.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ARE POSSIBLE. TO PUT THAT HEAT IN
CONTEXT, THE WARMEST MARCH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ANY OF OUR
FIVE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES IS 93F, SET IN CARBONDALE ON MARCH
23, 1910. MONTHLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY OR SUNDAY AT PADUCAH (85F IN 1967), EVANSVILLE (87F IN
1929), AND CAPE GIRARDEAU (85F IN 1986).
THE TASTE OF SUMMER WILL END SUNDAY EVENING AS POTENT COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE ROBUST IN STORM COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, NOW UP TO 25-50%. HOWEVER, THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER A VERY STRONG CAP, AND CONFIDENCE IN
STORM INITIATION AND COVERAGE REMAINS VERY LOW. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE HIGH-BASED WITH A DOWNBURST DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPC HAS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH IS PROBABLY OK AS FAR AS MESSAGING
GOES.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A MAJOR COOLDOWN BACK TO TYPICAL LATE MARCH
TEMPERATURES AS IT SAGS INTO THE MIDWEST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE,
BRINGING ANOTHER WARMUP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGGED SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE (25-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT DETAILS REGARDING THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN VAGUE STILL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SW AROUND 5-10 KTS AT CGI AND PAH. FURTHER NORTH AT
EVV, MVN, AND OWB, WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 4-6 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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