460
FXUS63 KPAH 181803
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
103 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND MORE INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
- NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MODERATE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY WHILE THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY POSE A MORE IMPACTFUL RISK DUE TO
THE ONGOING NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL SIT ON THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST (ACROSS THE ROCKIES).
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION ALOFT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING THROUGH SUNDAY; HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT MORE
FOCUSED ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH; HOWEVER, THERE HAS BE TREND
TOWARD RAPIDLY WEAKENING THE LINE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD A LESS WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 20-30 KTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND THE INSTABILITY,
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY,
THE GREATEST WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA, BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT, SOUTHWEST IN IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. AT AN EARLY GLANCE,
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS RUN IN THE 70S. IN
FACT, SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR
EXCEED 110 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE
AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE WILL BE POP UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET. KEPT A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TAFS
AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE UP
TOWARD EVV/OWB TOWARD MIDNIGHT; HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE
DIMINISHES THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THIS ISSUANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-080>082-
084>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>017-021-022.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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