837
FXUS63 KPAH 271843
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
143 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG AND
NORTH OF LINE FROM VAN BUREN TO SIKESTON, TO PADUCAH THROUGH
THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES TO HOPKINSVILLE AND ELKTON.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GREATER THAN 70% CHANCES OF LOWS
BELOW 32 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA, AND GREATER THAN 50% CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 30
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREA. WITH A 10 DEGREE TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH, MUCH OF THE FROST
POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED, BUT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH SO
MANY PLANTS/TREES IN BLOOM WARRANT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY 8-9AM CDT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING, SO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN
THE UPPER 30S.
AFTER A COOL AND QUIET SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP
WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, MONDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PUSH THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES (60-65%) WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE AROUND 2 INCHES. OF COURSE, THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
MEANS TIMING AND AMOUNTS COULD BE OFF AND ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY, BUT THIS IS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
QUITE A WHILE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE
READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHILE THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY WILL START ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z WITH NO ACCOMPANYING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 19Z-00Z, WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AT 07-17KTS WITH GUST AROUND 25KT WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTH WINDS OF 5-10KTS, BECOMING NORTHEAST
AFTER 12Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107-111.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /10 AM
EDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ004-005-
007-008-010>022.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page