176
FXUS63 KPAH 190806
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING
WITH A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE AR/MO BORDER EASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SHEAR AXIS OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING,
MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. LATER TODAY, THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL EJECT INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING
500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WARM FRONT
ATTENDANT A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY.
A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN ON
COVERAGE GIVEN INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE
OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS THIS EVENING SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THIS
ACTIVITY AS ITS MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT AN ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50+ KNOTS
SUGGESTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING DEEP LAYER
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRANSLATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD NORTHERN MO/IA BEFORE
DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING LEADING TO
SOME QUESTIONS ON AIRMASS RECOVERY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AT LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH 40
KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WOULD THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ENOUGH BY THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS AND SOLAR INSOLATION.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT INCREASING LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
UPPER 60/LOW 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LEADING TO 1500-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 50-60 KNOTS. ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL RESULT WITH INITIALLY
ALL HAZARDS GIVEN SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. INCREASING FORCING
ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH
TO A MORE LINEAR MODE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD. THE NEW DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC NOW HAS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY IN AN ENHANCED RISK.
THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE. AS
MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES OF QPF MAY FALL DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HREF PMM GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
WHILE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 3-5 INCHES, THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. ALOFT WE SHOULD REMAIN IN CYCLONIC
FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT NBM
CONTINUES TO PAINT A DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60'S TO 70'S. RIDGING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNS WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR OR MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY FROM ROUGHLY 12-20Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDER ACTIVITY AT CGI, PAH, AND MVN. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDER
ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AT CGI, PAH, AND
MVN. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP FROM THE E
AFTER 12Z, BECOMING S TO SE AFTER 18Z SOUTH OF MVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DWS
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