280
FXUS63 KPAH 041145
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 0.5-1.0", WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS, PERHAPS UP TO 1.5", OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, THE PURCHASE AREA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE QUAD STATE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS WELL AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING QLCS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE MUCAPE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS AROUND 500J/KG
WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. THIS CURRENT ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAY FURTHER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THE
WESTERN LINE AS IT ARRIVES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE
SUNRISE IS VERY LOW.
IF THERE IS ANY AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER WEST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING, SOMEWHAT
BETTER INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP THERE, BUT THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK. SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE TODAY MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
EVENTS. THOSE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
OVERALL CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS VERY LOW.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. GIVEN THE CURRENT BAND OF
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THE CHANCE OF THAT REGION
RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL ARE 70% OR GREATER.
OTHERWISE, AMOUNTS MAY BE CLOSER TO A HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF
WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z GEFS WHICH HAS A 50% OR LESS CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OR MORE
IN THOSE AREAS. THE 00Z ECENS IS MORE BULLISH FOR AT LEAST A
HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES TUMBLING THROUGH THE 60S
TODAY, AND WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST WINDS ON MONDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS,
BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND DEWPOINTS EARLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. IF WINDS DROP OUT A
LIGHT FREEZE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. THE 00Z
GEFS AND ECENS HAVE VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF A FREEZE AT ANY POINT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A NICE SWATCH OF QPF ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A SERIOUS
OUTLIER, AS ITS OWN ENSEMBLES HAVE ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THIS PERIOD. THE NBM REMAINS DRY IN THIS
PERIOD, BUT IT DOES CONTINUE A TREND OF A PERPETUAL DAY 8 POP.
IT HAS DONE THIS FOR AT LEAST 3 MORNINGS IN A ROW.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION OVER THE
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM
STRETCH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE ECENS
INDICATES THAT 70S ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE ARE SOME DECENT SIGNALS THAT NEXT WEEKEND MAY END UP
RATHER WET. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE SPED UP BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH KMVN AND KCGI BY 15Z, AND
FINALLY KOWB BY 20Z. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, WITH STRATIFORM RAIN FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING, AND A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE, AS WELL. CONFINED THUNDER TO KMVN AND KCGI, BUT IT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER EAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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