548
FXUS63 KPAH 120701
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT OR
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH, STRONGEST OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST
IN. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH (60-70% CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THAT WOULD BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE (60%-80%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE
IS ROUGHLY A 20-40% CHANCE THAT UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
COULD FALL OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S!
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE LOWS DIP BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY (HIGHS IN THE 50'S)
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MAIN IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WILL BE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE.
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S) TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL. IN FACT, THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL ( AROUND OR JUST UNDER 500J/KG), WHILE
SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 30-40 KTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS THE SHEAR IS MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. AT A MINIMUM IT MAY END UP BEING A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE TYPE
SETUP, WHERE A DAMAGING WIND RISK DEVELOPS. STILL A LOT TO IRON OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MONDAY.
LINGERING FORCING AND MOISTURE, ALONG WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, MAY LEAD TO A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE. SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY. IT DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THERE IS EVEN A 20-40% CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL INT
SOUTHWEST IN COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE WARM WEATHER
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY. OVERALL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY THE WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES.
THE COLDER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL THEN REACH INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 10KTS OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS
CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE, WITH SKIES CLEARING
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHIFT COUNTERCLOCKWISE DURING
THE DAY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED DURING THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...ATL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page