986
FXUS63 KPAH 072330
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE AT 80 IS IN SEMO ON
SATURDAY.
- COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH BOTH EVENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY WITH BROAD, LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ALOFT. TODAY STARTS A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND BRINGS BACK SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS. SEMO HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT HITTING 80 ON SATURDAY AT
AROUND A 60-80% CHANCE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROLLS THROUGH ON FRIDAY EVENING. POPS ARE
MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN AND ARE AROUND 40-
80% EARLY EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-64 COULD SEE APPROXIMATELY A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN
TOTAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF ON SUNDAY.
POPS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MODEL RUNS TO AROUND 20-40% ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES THEN TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BETTER SET UP AND FORCING LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR EAST, SO SHOULD
JUST BE A GENERAL THUNDER DAY FOR US.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ON MONDAY THEN WE START TO WARM UP
AGAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
FORECAST FOR THE ARE. ANOTHER QUICK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF 20-30% POPS TUESDAY
EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND GUST 15-20KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DRS
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