060
FXUS63 KPAH 060535
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL OFFER VARYING AMOUNTS
UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. THE NBM SUGGESTS A 40% CHANCE OF RECEIVING A TAD MORE
THAN 1/4" ALONG THE TN BORDER COUNTIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
- THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR
80F. THE NBM SHOWS SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA WITH ABOUT A
50/50 SHOT AT HITTING 80F, WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY IS CLOSER TO 70% SEEING 80F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE FRONT HAS SAGGED EFFECTIVELY THRU THE BULK OF THE FA, BUT
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS PERSIST. ITS NEAR VICINITY
LINGER WILL KEEP THAT CHANCE GOING INTO/THRU THE DAY, WITH A
MORNING LULL FOLLOWED BY AN AFTERNOON (DIURNAL) SURGE, MAINLY
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-TIER COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH NORTHERLIES AT THE SURFACE SO THE STRONG/SVR STORM
RISK WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. POPS EVENTUALLY DRAW DOWN
TONIGHT AFTER THE NARROW RIBBON OF H8 FORCING IS REMOVED WITH
THE SYSTEM'S FULL SWEEP PASSAGE, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN THEREAFTER. THAT YIELDS A COUPLE MORE NICE AND COOL AND DRY
DAYS BEFORE THE WEEKEND, WITH 60S AND 40S PREVAILING TIL THEN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH HERE. IT
DRIVES OUR 30S/40S DEW POINTS RIGHT BACK UP TO/INTO THE 50S AND
HIGHS RETURN TO SEASONAL 70S. THIS OCCURS JUST IN TIME/AHEAD OF
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND YIELD OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN WAVE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE IS MODELED TO
TRACK WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, SO WE EXPECT GENERAL RISK
STORMS HERE WITH THE SYSTEM'S NIGHT-TIME PASSAGE.
THE WEEKEND OFFERS THE WARMEST OF OUR DAYS THIS PACKAGE, WITH
80S LOOKING TO BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE FOR HIGHS ON OUR WARMEST
DAY, SATURDAY. THAT'S BC OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT SO WE GET INCREASING CLOUDS AND OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE COMES WITH A MORE ROBUST
WAVE PASSING HERE AND A SHARPER LONG WAVE TROF THAT DROPS ITS
FALLING HEIGHTS CORE ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY UPON SAID PASSAGE,
SO POPS INDEED SPIKE A LITTLE BETTER IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-
SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE, AND WE'LL
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR STRONG/SVR STORM POTENTIAL AS IT NEARS IN
TIME. THE POST FROPA COOLDOWN STARTS THE NEW WORK WEEK BACK WITH
PLEASANT LOW 70S/LOW 50S FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A MID WEEK
WARMUP POISES TO ENSUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MID MORNING; DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND THEN LOW VFR FROM NW TO SE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY/INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N
AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS AT TIMES EARLY, THEN
GRADUALLY RELAX TO AROUND 4-8 KTS THROUGH PLANNING PHASE OURS OF
THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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