561
FXUS63 KPAH 142109
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
409 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START FEELING MORE LIKE
SUMMER-TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF MID TO
UPPER 80S (POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHING 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK).
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MODEST (30-50%) FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN IS
AROUND 50-60% THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY IS PROVIDING ONE FINAL
DAY OF STUNNING SPRING WEATHER. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT, A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ILLINOIS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 10Z FRIDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LESS CERTAIN. AGAIN SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, OFFERING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN ISN'T THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH, SO WHILE SOME
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IT WILL BE QUITE HIT OR MISS AND OVERALL AMOUNTS
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO
SINK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MAKING IT
FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY SUMMER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH TUESDAY PROBABLY OFFERING THE
BEST SHOT AT THE MOMENT. THE OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE CONTINUES TO
HONE IN ON AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR THE HIGHEST SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THOUGH. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST 1" OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY (50-60% CHANCE). THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY HELP PREVENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING, EVEN IF IT
DOESN'T REALLY IMPROVE THEM MUCH. THE CHANCE AT OBSERVING 2" OR MORE
IS STILL QUITE LOW, ONLY ABOUT 15-20%.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TOMORROW AND PRIMARILY
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD REGARDING NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW-MID 80S. NBM
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE LREF. FOR INSTANCE
IT SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (60-90%) AT REACHING 90 ON MONDAY
COMPARED TO ONLY A 30-50% CHANCE ON THE LREF.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING RETURN FLOW
SOUTHERLIES TMRW, INCLUDING SOME DIURNAL GUSTINESS. TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
A SHORT WAVE RIPPLE OF ENERGY SHOOTS ACROSS MO/IL. SCT-BKN VFR
MID-HIGH LEVEL BASES COME INTO PLAY, AND WE'VE INCLUDED A PROB30
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS TRACK AS FAR SOUTH AS KMVN
TMRW AM.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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