292
FXUS63 KPAH 241104
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
604 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MEAGER CHANCE FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MONDAY'S SET UP CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE CONCERNING FOR SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE MT/ND/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE
COUPLED SFC LOW ARE POISED TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MESSY SITUATION THAT IS ALREADY ON-
GOING WEST OF THE AREA, SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE IN SEMO BY
SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.
SUPPORT FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WANES PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR, AND MODEST CAPE. MORE
STRATIFORM/SHOWER LIKE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP MITIGATE ANYTHING MORE ROBUST FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH CAPE MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY REACH AROUND 0.50-0.75" IN WESTERN SEMO AND AROUND
0.15-0.25" ELSEWHERE.
AFTER A DRY AND MILD SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY, THE FOCUS
SHIFTS TO MONDAY'S SYSTEM. 00Z GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS PREVIOUS
ASSERTIONS FOR A RATHER CHARGED SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY OVER MODEL RUNS AND AGREEMENT AMONGST BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
KEY SMALL DIFFERENCES THOUGH SUCH AS EXACT JET PLACEMENT (LEFT
EXIT ASCENT DYNAMICS) AND THE PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 7-7.5 DEGC/KM, UP TO 4,000 J/KG
MUCAPE, AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KTS ALONG WITH
SHARPLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THE CONSISTENCY SHOWN THIS FAR OUT
WITH THESE PARAMETERS IS CONCERNING AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THOUGH THINGS COULD STILL CHANGE.
BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY NBM HAS ABOUT A 30-
50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE FLESHED OUT IN THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY BETWEEN
13-16Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS, SO
KEPT THUNDER MENTION AT WESTERN TERMINALS. NOT REALLY SURE WE
WILL GET MUCH REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 8-12 KTS
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING. CIGS ARE
LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW
OF THE WESTERN TERMINALS COULD FLIRT WITH MVFR LEVELS FROM TIME
TO TIME THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS THOUGH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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