330
FXUS63 KPAH 100335
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1035 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE
GREATEST ODDS (50-80% CHANCE) OF REACHING 85 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE REGION.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-50%) RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
- A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-50%) FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WE FIND OURSELVES POSITIONED BETWEEN RIDGING IN
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TROUGHING OUT WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEXT WEEK.
OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION. MOISTURE
LOOKS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY, SO WE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THIS WILL PRIMARILY
BE CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE LREF GRAND
ENSEMBLE ONLY HAS A 30-50% CHANCE AT GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THESE AREAS. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, INSTABILITY
LOOKS QUITE WEAK, SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVEN SATURDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY. SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
ON SATURDAY (AT LEAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF) AS THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
PRIMARILY FORCED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY GET SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MID NEXT WEEK THAT COULD RESULT IN OUR GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
OF THE PERIOD. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THIS TIME PERIOD
THOUGH, WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW EJECTING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY (AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC DAY 7 WITH 15% SEVERE PROBS),
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE CSU-MLP SEVERE PROBS BASICALLY
HAVE NOTHING IN OUR AREA AND A BROAD 5% RISK FROM CENTRAL IL/IN INTO
NEW ENGLAND. SOMETHING TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT TRENDS THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY
RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS. A FEW RECORD HIGHS
AND WARM LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM HAS
MUCH OF WEST KY, SOUTHEAST IL, AND SOUTHWEST IN WITH A 50-80% CHANCE
TO REACH 85 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS A 60-80%
CHANCE ON TUESDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGHS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 84-88 RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ON FRIDAY, CAUSING BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THICKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SCATTERED BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE AT KMVN/KEVV, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED AT
ALL TERMINALS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISH TO 3-6 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW
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