879
FXUS63 KPAH 022200
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DRIZZLE, LIGHT SHOWERS, AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL
KEEP US COOL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80).
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR.
- PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
THROUGH THE 80S, RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
- LATE WEEK (THURSDAY-SATURDAY) HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED, ALTHOUGH CURRENT RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)
REMAIN LOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
- GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING OUR NEXT HEATWAVE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES HAS JUMPED TO 60-80% DURING THIS TIME
ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE (50-60%) OF HEAT INDEX READINGS
EXCEEDING 100.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS KY AND INTO AR CURRENTLY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE
PRIMARILY BEEN IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
POSITIONED MORE INTO EAST TN AND GA. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. WE SHOULD STAY DRY ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ATTEMPT TO LIFT BACK NORTHWEST SOME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH
COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE
KY PENNYRILE. SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT (10-20% CHANCE). OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A
DRY NEXT 3 DAYS FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION.
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, IT
WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF ENERGY TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION,
ALTHOUGH CURRENT POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE AT BEST. THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION MOST OF THIS TIME,
BUT IT MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST WIND SHEAR (25 KTS OR
GREATER) LARGELY STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WITH INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ML SEVERE PROBS JUMP BACK TO 5% FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST PROBS STAY NORTH OF US.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AT LEAST, AND GIVEN HOW ACTIVE THIS SUMMER HAS
BEEN, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION
RETURN.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES MID TO LATE
WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AUG 9-11 PERIOD FOR
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL HEATWAVE. LREF PROBABILITIES OF HITTING 90 ARE IN
THE 50-60% RANGE BY THURS-SAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
(EVEN AS EARLY AS WED IN OUR FAR WEST), BUT THEY JUMP UP TO 60-80%
BY NEXT SUN-TUES. ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DURING
THIS TIME AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NBM HAS TONED DOWN HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR LATE WEEK,
PRIMARILY MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT HAS THEM JUMPING BACK TO 100 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND MOST OF OUR AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS HEAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH WITH IT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MODELING OF SPOTTY -SHRA/-DZ SUGGESTS SAID SENSIBLE WX WILL MOSTLY
(BUT PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY) AVOID THE TERMINALS, AS THE
PRIMARY TROF RESPONSIBLE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, AND IS GRADUALLY
REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEARING TRENDS NOTED ON
SATELLITE ARE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST/THE OZARKS WITH THIS
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION, AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR
LOW BASES MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND OFFER ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT WEATHER. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TMRW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST, BUT LOW BASE RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE PARTICULARLY STUBBORN/SLOW TO LIFT INTO VFR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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