485
FXUS63 KPAH 200902
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE REGION, A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE IN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES--ONLY ENHANCED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. TRENDED
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. HOWEVER, WE DIDN'T GO TOO EXTREME IN THAT
DIRECTION GIVEN THE PROSPECT FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE SUNSHINE IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL, HIGHS RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TODAY, WARMING
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST IN THE TEENS, WARMING INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS STILL GUSTY TODAY, WIND CHILL READINGS WILL HOLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING,
THEN RISE INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL
SLACKEN OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY TONIGHT, WIND CHILL READINGS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER IS CONCERNED, SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. NOT CONVINCED THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE
AREA THOUGH. EVEN SO, A FAST MOVING WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
AREA, AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING
FROM THOSE CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR COMPARED TO WHAT FELL
YESTERDAY, BUT A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN MUCH
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS RATHER LOW,
BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION RAINS TO OUR REGION TUESDAY AND THEN A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
IF WE HAVE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE RAIN/DRIZZLE, WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WE
WILL GET ICE NUCLEATION AND DEEP SATURATION WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
HEAVIER RAINS OF 1/2-3/4" TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST, WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF
WE GOT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS, WITH A SEEDER-FEEDER
MECHANISM POTENTIALLY IN PLAY, BUT OVERALL THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT
RAIN ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH NO WINTRY
CONCERNS.
THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEP MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. IF
THIS OCCURS WE WILL HAVE MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BEFORE IT
ENDS. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THE BLENDED FORECAST WE HAVE TO USE, WE
LOSE ICE NUCLEATION WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION, SO WE
END UP WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT ICING, RATHER THAN SNOW. IF
WE KEEP THE PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY, IT STANDS TO REASON THAT
WE WOULD MAINTAIN DEEP SATURATION AS WELL AND MORE OF A SNOW THREAT.
LOTS OF IFS HERE WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY, AND THE 00Z GFS, ECMWF AND CMC ALL NOW SHOW A
SHOT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY VARY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE, BUT IF ANYTHING FALLS IT
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL BE IN THE DEEP FREEZE WITH
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY EMPHASIZING
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AN IMPULSE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN IS TYPICALLY VERY LOW. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
TEMPERATURES TANKING THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP MOST OF THE AREA BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. SO WE ARE CONFIDENT IN THE COLD, BUT
NOT THE DETAILS OF ANY SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KTS, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY 12Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL BE MVFR OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
SCT BETWEEN 12Z-16Z, THEN MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 18Z-21Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST
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