223
FXUS63 KPAH 172205
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AROUND 15KTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION ALREADY TODAY, BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
A LIGHT BREEZE MAY PERSIST OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION TONIGHT, WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
EXTENT. HOWEVER, OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND OUR TYPICALLY COOL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CALM, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO. STILL FEEL THAT FROST WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OVER MOST OF THE REGION, SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
HEADLINE. HOWEVER, WILL DELAY ITS BEGINNING TIL 1 AM CDT TO
BETTER MATCH THE ONSET OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT
WILL BE THE IDEAL FALL WEATHER MOST OF US REALLY LOOK FORWARD
TO AND HAVE BEEN WAITING NOT SO PATIENTLY FOR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S BY MONDAY AND THEN CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. A
FEW READINGS OF 80 OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SOME
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THEN LOWS WILL
TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE 40S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST
ACROSS APPALACHIA THRU THIS TIME TMRW. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
IN THIS COOL/DRY AIR MASS. NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
VEER TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST TMRW WITH THE HIGH'S MIGRATION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ TO 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
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