837
FXUS63 KPAH 180653
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
153 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND POSSIBLY THE
PENNYRILE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING.
- THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
WILL BE ISOLATED.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
(50-80%) TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
- AFTER A DRY DAY FRIDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING
AND/OR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
THE EXISTING ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE
ELEVATED AND IS NOT SEVERE, AND THE FRESHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS
SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS WELL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
ROBUST WITH 0-3KM SRH 300-400J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH OF 200-300J/KG.
WITH MUCH OF THIS APPARENT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER, IT IS
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT THE EXISTING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
AND NOT TAPPING THE GREATEST SHEAR. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A ROBUST
ENVIRONMENT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE SEVERE RISK. TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD STILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 AM OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA, AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE WATCH AREA. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DECREASING, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY, WHERE 1-2" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE, AS WELL.
THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AS THEY SLOWLY DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. THE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE COLD FRONT IS BACK OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME,
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE QUAD STATE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, EVEN AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LIKELY PUSHES SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE
LATER THIS MORNING. MLCAPE COULD CLIMB UP TO NEAR 2000J/KG OVER
THE BOOTHEEL AND WEST KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS
WILL BE THOROUGHLY MUDDLED AND THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY 00Z AND THAT
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER, A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDER REGIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COOLER FRIDAY
AND LIKELY SATURDAY AS WELL. WE STILL HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE WILL
DEFINITELY BE DRY. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING DEWPOINTS BACK
TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY AND THAT WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
CONVECTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD.
STORMS ARE VERY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A STALLING
COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS WILL BE EVV/OWB BUT CAN'T
RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY ANYWHERE. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG
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