236
FXUS63 KPAH 242140
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
440 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CULMINATE WITH A RETURN
TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 30-90%
CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 85 DEGREES ON THURSDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE OZARKS AND LOWEST IN THE
NORTHEAST.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT,
PEAKING AT A 60-70% CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG I-64, BUT THE BETTER
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 32 DEGREES
SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO EASTERLY TODAY
AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SOME OF THE
WARMING POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING LEFT FOR THE DAY.
RHS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE BIT HIGHER, BUT SHOULD STILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 20-30% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE. SOME
LOCALIZED MINIMUM AREAS BELOW 20% MAY HAVE SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN, BUT THE LACK OF WIND SPEED IS A LIMITING FACTOR.
BROAD SCALE RIDGING EXPANDS OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A
TRANSITION TO SSW WINDS TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR SURGING
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK. HIGHS REACH THE MID 70S TOMORROW (NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 IN THE OZARKS), WITH TEMPERATURES HEADED TOWARDS
DAILY RECORDS, POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR MONTHLY RECORDS, ON THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND NEAR 90 IN THE OZARKS.
A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TO
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE QUAD
STATE. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COVERS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE
LATE NIGHT TIMING WILL LEAVE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS RELATIVE TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH WHICH HAVE THE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
TIED TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK
DOWN TO THE 50S-60S FRIDAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE AROUND EVEN ODDS OF DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING LATE WEEKEND AS WINDS RETURN
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. CPC OUTLOOKS HEAVILY FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY THE 6-10 DAY) AND LEAN TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, SUGGESTING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
FAVORED FOR THE END OF MARCH/START OF APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
GRIDDED TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE BASES WILL BE MOST
PREVALANT IN SCT-BKN FASHION AOA H7 THRU MIDDAY TMRW, AFTER
WHICH SOME LOWER SCT-BKN DIURNAL VFR BASES ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP TMRW AND MAY INCLUDE SOME GUSTS AT TIMES
DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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