495  
FXUS63 KPAH 192025  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE  
PCPN, ONLY PERHAPS ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDINESS HERE AND THERE,  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA TODAY.  
IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW BEHIND IT, HEIGHTS  
WILL RISE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHERN LIMB OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, SOUTH OF  
A LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD  
KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO TANK IN SOME SPOTS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IF  
THE SKY CLEARS FOR LONG ENOUGH, BUT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT  
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT  
NIGHT.  
 
AFTER DAYBREAK SAT, SOME SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR,  
BUT PROBABLY ONLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE COUNTIES OF  
SOUTHEASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWESTERN IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.  
ON SAT NIGHT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL  
MO, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE COUNTIES  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR (LIMITED  
INSTABILITY) FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE IN THE  
EVENING MAINLY NORTHWEST, DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING  
THE DAY SUN, MODELS SHOWED THAT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL BE  
COMMON, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KY AND EASTERN PARTS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN IN, SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE  
EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN  
OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD  
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
THE MODEL TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING A DRY AND  
SEASONAL WEEK OF WEATHER. THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH OUR FA ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROF. PRIOR  
MODEL RUNS WANTED TO BACKWRAP OR OVERRUN THE RECENTLY PASSED  
BOUNDARY WITH POPS, PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT GIVEN THE  
TRENDS, WE'LL ELIMINATE ANY SUCH BLENDING THAT STILL LINGERS OR AT  
LEAST MAKE IT SILENT.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE FA AND BROADER REGION  
DURING THE MID WEEK SIGNALS CONSISTENTLY, EVEN AS AN OPEN WAVE OF  
ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE BELIEVE THE HIGH  
PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP POPS SILENT THEN AS WELL.  
 
BY DAYS 6-7 AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WE SEE THE HIGH SHIFT TO  
THE EAST AND A VEERING OF THE FLOW IN THE LOWER TROP, WITH LIGHT  
SOUTHERLIES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL WEEK.  
THIS WILL HELP NUDGE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, INTO THE UPPER  
60S. THE NBM SUGGESTS A DIURNALLY FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER  
OR STORM CHANCE IN RESPONSE, AND WE CANNOT ARGUE WITH IT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE. IF A DIRECTION COULD BE SELECTED, IT WOULD BE SOUTHERLY.  
SAT MORNING, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT  
6 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE  
MOST PART, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IN THE SECOND HALF  
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS, THE  
HYDROLAPSE, WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER  
INDICATE YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  
USED PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE, AT LEAST IN PART.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DB  
LONG TERM...DH  
AVIATION...DB  
 
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