570
FXUS63 KPAH 050731
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
231 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH 100 TODAY, WHILE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110. THERE IS A
30-50% CHANCE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- LABOR DAY WILL BE THE CHOICE DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90, MUCH LESS HUMIDITY, AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE
RELATIVE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF, AS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
AT LAST, WE HAVE ARRIVED AT THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING! HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED, AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 100 THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THIS MORNING.
WE BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, BUT DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT
IT. THE NBM'S TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD
AND FARTHER WEST IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY AND A HEALTHY DRY NORTHEAST
FETCH EXPECTED SUNDAY, IT IS NO FORGONE CONCLUSION THAT ANY OF
THE AREA WILL REACH 100 SUNDAY.
WE ALREADY HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
DEVELOP JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SOME
OF THE 00Z AND LATER GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SHOWERS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING MOSTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. NOT SURE
EXACTLY WHY THAT IS HAPPENING, BUT THE EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
LENDS A BIT OF CONFIDENCE FOR THIS LATER DEVELOPMENT. WE MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES TO
FOCUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBILITIES
OFFERED UP BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ONE WOULD HAVE SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AFTER 19Z,
AND THEN MOVING SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A SECOND POSSIBILITY WOULD BE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PERRYVILLE AND PINCKNEYVILLE AREAS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PENNYRILE ALSO AFTER 19Z. THESE STORMS WOULD
ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EVENING. A COMBINATION OF 00Z ARW AND
3KM NAM WAS USED TO COMBINE THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES BY SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 19Z THAT PROGRESSES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CAPE OF 2000-3000J/KG AND DCAPE WELL OVER 1000J/KG WILL LEAD TO
A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. HOWEVER, 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE AND PENNYRILE COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THERE. OTHERWISE, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WE COULD SEE
QUITE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BOUNCING AROUND THE AREA,
SUSTAINING DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE DONE BY 06Z AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH 90 DEGREES EITHER DAY. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK OVER THE QUAD STATE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE
LATER TUESDAY. THAT COMBINATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MORE IN THE 100-105 RANGE,
WHICH WOULD NOT REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, AND THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
FOR THURSDAY, AND SOME INCREASED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AREAS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE, KCGI/KPAH AND NEARBY AREAS, ARE
LIKELY TO SEE VSBYS DROP TO MVFR FOR PART OF THE LATE NIGHT TO
SUNRISE HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO ABOUT 5KTS IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE TOMORROW WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TOMORROW,
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EVANSVILLE
TRI-STATE AREA. DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...ATL
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