910
FXUS63 KPAH 121642
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
- SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 HAVE SMALL CHANCES (15-30%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ISOLATED.
- BETTER CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES NORTH,
THEN VERY ISOLATED SMALL CHANCES (15-20%) WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGHER CHANCES (30-60%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION IS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODEL BLEND IS TRENDING LOWER BUT STILL
PRODUCES A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME LOW END CHANCES (15-30%) OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM, NOW CONFINED TO JUST SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
OVERALL, DUE TO LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ANY LOCATION WILL BE
LUCKY TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
ON FRIDAY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE BLEND
PRODUCES 20-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MOSTLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE, MODELS PRODUCE ISOLATED CHANCES (15-20%) AT
BEST OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST, AND
THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MONDAY, WE
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EARLY
AS MONDAY. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH CHANCES INCREASING TO 40-60% BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADED INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF
SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S, AND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND MOVE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROUGHLY
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS
MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT MVN, EVV, AND OWB, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
STEADY SW AROUND 4-8 KTS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE.
WINDS AFTER 13-15Z WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DWS
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