404
FXUS63 KPAH 232150
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
450 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 85
DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY EVENING,
AND PEAK AT A 60-70% CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG I-64, BUT THE BETTER
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 30 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 32 DEGREES SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 449 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A 1032 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SUPPORTING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF HIGHS
REACHING 85 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A 500 MB
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH 35-45 KTS OF SFC-
6 KM SHEAR IS PROGGED, MLCAPE ONLY PEAKS AROUND 500 J/KG AT
BEST. SPC'S D4 SLIGHT RISK CLIPS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEEING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER CONDITIONAL DIURNAL DRIVEN RISK SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE ML MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN SEVERE
RISK NORTH OF I-64 ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS CLOSER TO WHERE THE
BETTER KINEMATICS AND FORCING WILL BE. THE NBM IS LINE WITH THE
GFS/EC WITH 60-70% POPS PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. SHOULD CONVECTION
TREND FASTER, LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WOULD BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
TOTAL QPF ALSO DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH OF RAIN THAT IS CONTINGENT ON MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION.
ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR
60. COMPARED TO THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 30 DEGREES COOLER.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C BY SATURDAY MORNING TRANSLATES TO A 40-50%
CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST COUNTIES WHEN A 1040 MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AGAIN AS A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS PACKAGE. SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL VEER
FROM NORTH TO EAST; NEAR TERM GUSTS WILL BE LOST SHORTLY AFTER
THE DIURNAL INPUT IS RELAXED. GRIDDED TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE GOOD SATURATION AT H5 AND ABOVE, WITH SOME INDICATIONS
FOR TEMPORARY PERIODS OF QUASI-SATURATION INTO THE H7-H5 LAYER.
THIS MEANS EFFECTIVELY SCT-BKN AOA 120 THRU THE PERIOD OF THIS
PACKAGE, MOSTLY WITH CIGS WITH THE BREAKS TO SCT OCCURRING
PRIMARILY FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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