633
FXUS63 KPAH 302318
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-50% CHANCE) REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SEMO, FAR SOUTHWEST IL, AND SOUTHWEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALLER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TOMORROW (20-30%) OVER
SEMO.
- A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS,
WITH WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
- DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A VERY LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND
CANADA IS STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON TO THE POINT IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
A "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES ARE OPENING
UP OVER SWIN/NW KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW
60S. SOUTHWEST OF THERE, DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. IN
THE FRONTAL ZONE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AN EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
IN OVER SEMO.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES AROUND TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW. AS THAT OCCURS THE
SOUPIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOSHES BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN MODESTLY AND WE END UP WITH ABOUT
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SOME SEVERE RISK IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET GOING. GFS SEEMS TO
WANT TO DEVELOP AN MCS WEST OF THE AREA AND TAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE SCATTER SHOT. IT IS
NOT A GIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE, BUT IT IF DOES THIS
PATTERN OFTEN PRODUCES EITHER SOME FORM OF SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
MCS OR STRONG/SEVERE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH WIND/HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL FRONT GETS SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HERE AND WEST TAKE ON
ELEMENTS OF BOTH AN OMEGA AND REX BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTIVE OF
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DEMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION IN THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AFTER 18Z FOR SEMO BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN 20% WITH NO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD
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