973
FXUS63 KPAH 240552
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
50-70% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 85 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT,
PEAKING AT A 60-70% CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG I-64, BUT THE BETTER
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 32 DEGREES
SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR/RAP MIX DOWN SOME VERY DRY AIR ACROSS OUR CWA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS FOR DEW POINTS AND
RHS. MOST AREAS LIKELY OBSERVE MINIMUM RH'S BELOW 25% TODAY, AND
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO, FAR SOUTHERN IL,
AND WESTERN KY OBSERVE VALUES IN THE 15-20% RANGE. FUEL LEVELS
WERE ALREADY IN THE 7-8% RANGE YESTERDAY, SO WILL LIKELY BE
SIMILAR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THOUGH, GENERALLY ONLY
5-7 KTS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS FURTHER EAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO USHER IN A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS
REACH WELL INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS EVEN A 50-60%
CHANCE AT REACHING 80 IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. RECORD HIGHS APPEAR
LIKELY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS WE REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. A FEW
MONTHLY RECORDS MAY BE THREATENED AGAIN WITH A GOOD CHANCE (50-70%)
AT REACHING 85 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THE OZARK FOOTHILLS HAVE A
70% CHANCE AT REACHING 90.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO SINK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE TIMING CONTINUES TO FAVOR ONLY A LOW END
THREAT WITH STORMS PRIMARILY COMING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST KINEMATICS/FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF US AND MLCAPE DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, WITH CURRENT DEPICTION ONLY RUNNING ABOUT 500 J/KG. IF
THE BOUNDARY WERE TO SPEED UP AND STORMS SNUCK IN THURSDAY EVENING
WE MAY HAVE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH, SO WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT, WITH ONLY A
20-30% CHANCE AT RECEIVING GREATER THAN A 0.5".
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C SATURDAY MORNING, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES (40-
50% CHANCE). A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY KEEPS US
CHILLY. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN THOUGH AS UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE AT HIGHS
REACHING AT LEAST 75 NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS PACKAGE. SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL VEER
FROM NORTH TO EAST; NEAR TERM GUSTS WILL BE LOST SHORTLY AFTER
THE DIURNAL INPUT IS RELAXED. GRIDDED TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE GOOD SATURATION AT H5 AND ABOVE, WITH SOME INDICATIONS
FOR TEMPORARY PERIODS OF QUASI-SATURATION INTO THE H7-H5 LAYER.
THIS MEANS EFFECTIVELY SCT-BKN AOA 120 THRU THE PERIOD OF THIS
PACKAGE, MOSTLY WITH CIGS WITH THE BREAKS TO SCT OCCURRING
PRIMARILY FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DH
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