765
FXUS63 KPAH 061120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (RANGING FROM 30-60%) ARE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK, SEVERE CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW
(LESS THAN 5%) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES (5-15%) MAY CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100. NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY
WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
EARLY THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER IN OUR WEATHER
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK (AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL) AND ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
EACH DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING 0.1" OR GREATER AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS
GENERALLY ONLY 20-40% THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO IN OTHER WORDS,
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL BE HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THERE IS HARDLY ANY FLOW ALOFT SO LIKELY WON'T SEE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
THAT PULSE UP AND PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS ANY AFTERNOON. WOULD
TEND TO THINK THE CHANCES FOR THAT ARE LESS EARLY IN THE WEEK
COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, GIVEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER (MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 1500-2000J/KG AT
BEST EACH DAY).
A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE QUAD STATE
REGION AND GENERATE SOME ACTUAL FLOW TO PLAY WITH. MODELS ADVERTISE
A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT OBSERVING AT LEAST 20-25 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
AT THE SAME TIME, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
GIVEN THE WARMER AIRMASS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS WELL. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP, STARTING THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY
BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN BEFORE SINKING
SOUTH ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ML
SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE TO 10-15% DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
AND MAY EVEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. THE CONVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DOES APPEAR MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.1" SPIKING IN THE 70-90%
RANGE. SO FOR THOSE THAT MISS OUT EARLY-MID WEEK, THIS PERIOD
WILL GIVE US OUR BEST BET FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND MAY REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER TROUGHINESS
LINGERS. BEYOND THAT, WE MAY FINALLY GET SEVERAL COMPLETELY DRY DAYS
BY THE JULY 13-16 TIMEFRAME AS MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER, HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE A BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR NOW DOES SEEM TO SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW HOT
DAYS AT A MINIMUM EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW ENDS UP TAKING OVER BY
LATER THAT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WEST KY EARLY THIS MORNING IS STAYING
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. ALSO HAVE SOME EARLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR
DECK PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY HAVE MORE
FOG TO CONTEND WITH FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>003-
006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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