235
FXUS63 KPAH 160642
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING (40-80% CHANCES), WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCES (30-55%) FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON (30-40%
CHANCES), THEN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (70-85% CHANCES) WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD READINGS FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN WE
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS (40-80%
CHANCES) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. SCATTERED CONVECTION (30-60% CHANCES) WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
83 TO 87 DEGREE RANGE, WITH CURRENT RECORDS IN THE 86 TO 89
DEGREE RANGE. CLOUDS/CONVECTION WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN WHETHER
ANY LOCATIONS CAN TIE OR BREAK A RECORD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
(30-40% CHANCES), WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVING BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 70-85%. THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, BY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, THEN BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS (20% WEST TO 45% SOUTHEAST)
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A STRAY SHOWER STILL
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA INTO THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A THIRD
TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S,
AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY, WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK, PRODUCING SMALL CHANCES
(15-25%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSRA WILL BE
AT CGI AND PAH WITH PROB30 GROUPS ELSEWHERE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED
AFTER 12Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AT CGI/PAH
BETWEEN 15-18Z. A FEW GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON IN SEMO AND W KY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...AD
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