360
FXUS63 KPAH 211723
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z AND THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION 12Z-15Z, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND 16Z AND SKIES WILL TEMPORARILY
CLEAR SHORTLY BEHIND IT.
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THESE MOVING PARTS,
WE STUCK CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS THE SOUTH AND WEST
EXTENT OF THE WRAPAROUND CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CLOUD TRENDS, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A BIT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IN ADDITION, THE NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER FRIDAY MAY BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. DECIDED TO JUST INCREASE POPS TO
AROUND 10% FOR NOW AND SEE IF IT BECOMES INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH
LATER MODEL CYCLES.
A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STORY HEADING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN
KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS THE
WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN GENERATING SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTH. IT WOULD NOT BE THAT BIG OF A SURPRISE TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR
NOW.
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THEY ARE
SUFFICIENT TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN ELSEWHERE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
ON SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA, EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
NORTH DWINDLING TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION,
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS TAKE THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL SLIDE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AS WE GET INTO MID WEEK, TIMING OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM GETS MORE CHALLENGING. SOME MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER, POTENTIALLY KEEPING OUR REGION DRY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, MODEL BLENDS TREND TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS, WHICH
SPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE PAH FA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
KEPT CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TO ONLY 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTH
WINDS WILL BRING US BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, A ROBUST POST-COLD FRONTAL STRATUS DECK
LOCATED OVER EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING IMPACTS TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS (MVN, EVV, OWB). FEW-SCT CU DECKS AROUND 4KFT WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT, BECOMING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LOW MVFR
BY 12Z FRIDAY AT THOSE LOCATIONS. AT CGI, AND PAH, THESE CIG
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE W-NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AT 9-14 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL RELAX TO 5 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DWS
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