943
FXUS63 KPAH 262202
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
502 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AT 18-20C, WHICH IS NEAR THE 95-99TH
PERCENTILES FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW HOURS OF
WARMING LEFT TO GO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
TONIGHT, ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DIP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ELEVATED AND POST-FRONTAL, SO THE ONLY POTENTIAL SEVERE HAZARD
WOULD BE FROM HAIL. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MRGL RISK NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT, WITH ONLY 0.05-0.15" OF RAINFALL FORECAST.
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE GROWING SEASON IS
UNDERWAY PER GUIDANCE FROM OUR AG WEATHER PARTNERS. HOWEVER, DID
NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN FORECAST WINDS LOOK
TO BE 3-7 KTS, WHICH WOULD LIMIT FROST FORMATION AND MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS. WILL MENTION IN THE
HWO AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR ONCE DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EACH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BY
AROUND 10-20 DEGREES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER MORE OF SW BAROCLINIC FLOW PATTERN, WHICH WOULD DIRECT
ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE FIRST SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN
CHC POPS ARE FORECAST (30-50%). THUNDER CHANCES ARE ALSO
MENTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME, BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ANY
CONVECTION WOULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MAKE PASSAGE TONIGHT; A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. RESTRICTED BASES/CIGS COMMENCE
AFTER FROPA, WITH ATTENDANT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS POSSIBLE
W/PCPN. GUSTY S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N AFTER FROPA.
IMPROVEMENTS IN OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS FORECAST WILL INCREASE
IN PREVALANCE DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE PACKAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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