810
FXUS63 KPAH 182303
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS KEPT WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HEADS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE WEEKEND, WHILE REMAINING MAINLY
EASTERLY.
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE OUR DRIEST AIR IN MONTHS AS DEW POINTS DROP
TO THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S. IN SHELTERED AREAS WITH CALM WINDS, LOWS COULD DROP TO
NEAR 40. A SLOW WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
THE DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH PLEASANT
DAYTIME TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TO DIG STRONGLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
COULD EASILY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS WELL AS ITS SHORT DURATION. THEREFORE, THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF LOOKS REASONABLE IN KEEPING PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE WILL BE
ACCUSTOMED TO, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR 80.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
THE TAFS ARE VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SUPPRESS CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY
NE WINDS AOA 5-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
SHORT TERM...ATL
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DWS
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