070
FXUS63 KPAH 231136
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTHWEST OF
OUR CWA AS OF 3AM, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF IT. AREAS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA,
PARTICULARLY UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN (0.25-0.75"). UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE THE CASE
FURTHER SOUTH, WITH LIGHT QPF EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS PROGRESS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY. THUS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
WEST KY THIS MORNING, SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
LIKE FALL, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY, WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATER IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN
OUR WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CURRENT
THINKING CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ON AVERAGE, QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES, WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE. WHEN IN DROUGHT, IT IS
HARD TO GET OUT OF IT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST, AND WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY INTO FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. THERE IS
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
AND WHETHER IT WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF OUR REGION PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS POINT,
AND WENT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW RIGHT NOW WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN, AND OTHERS INDICATING THE FRONT MAKING A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHERN PROGRESS.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY FAIRLY PLEASANT AND NEAR SEASONAL. THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO
OUR EAST BY FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES, AND THEN BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP
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