098
FXUS63 KPAH 020555
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1255 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
A PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEATWAVE WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 103-109 DEGREES. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF
NEEDING TO EXTEND ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT HEADLINES INTO SUNDAY.
- MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES LOCALLY AND SEVERAL RECORD WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ARE PROBABLE. THESE
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND
WILL ELEVATE HEAT IMPACTS TO AN EXTREME LEVEL EVEN MORE
THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT PROVIDE RELIEF UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST, WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING A
TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
DANGEROUS HOT TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103-109 DEGREES. THE STOUT 594 DM RIDGE IS
NOW PEAKING OVER THE FA WITH DAILY MAXTS MAXING OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES LOCALLY. EXTREME HEAT IMPACTS REMAIN
MORE PROBABLE INTO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS DUE TO A
RESIDUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHILE EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DID ACHIEVE LOWER VALUES
STILL MANAGED TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT THE DEEP DRY
ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS AND ROBUST MIXING WILL PERSIST, NUDGED MAXTS
UP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CONSSHORT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING COOL ON THE NBM DESPITE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING NEAR 70. WOULD EXPECT MAXTS TO REACH THEIR PEAK BY
THURSDAY AS WE WILL NO LONGER BE MIXING DOWN ANOMALOUS 700 MB
WARM AIR ALOFT, WHILE THERE WILL ALSO BE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
DEWPOINT.
EVEN IF SOME LOCATIONS DO NOT QUITE REACH THE 4 DAY CRITERIA OF 105,
THE EXTREME IMPACTS ARE STILL GOING TO BE THERE. THIS IS WHEN
YOU FACTOR IN CONSECUTIVE RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-70S, AND A LONGER DURATION HEATWAVE THAT IS NOW
PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A 20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY, IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
RELIEF. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO REMAIN IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON SATURDAY THAT WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
DOWNSTREAM. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING A
TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST.
BY SUNDAY, THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE RETREATS, BUT IT DOESN'T QUITE REACH THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE PROBABILITY ON THE LREF IS 40-60% FOR NEEDING TO
EXTEND ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT HEADLINES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
OVER SEMO, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON WHERE YOU DRAWL THE CUTOFF
FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
MAXTS ONLY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 90S, WITH LOWER
90S MORE FAVORED FOR LABOR DAY AS THE HEATWAVE FINALLY COMES TO
AN END. THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 95
DEGREES ON THE NBM IS 70-90%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE TAFS REMAIN VFR. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S-SW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AFTER 14Z TO 6-10 KTS FROM THE SW. AFTER
00-01Z THURSDAY, WINDS WILL AGAIN RELAX TO 3-5 KTS. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FEW- SCT HIGH-BASED
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 6-10KFT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
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