639
FXUS63 KPAH 040757
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING SOME PRE-DAWN STORMS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH 80-100% CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
- CHANCES (30% NORTH TO 60-70% SOUTHEAST) OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDERS,
THEN SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY, WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE ONE TO ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
RANGE. CHANCES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE 60-80%, AND GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES ARE 15-40%.
- LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT
HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AREAS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH DAWN. SOME SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT
APPROACHING STORMS HAVE LOST THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME OF THEM
CARRIED FURTHER NORTHWEST.
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING RHS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30%
TODAY, ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS, THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE TODAY OVER ONTARIO TRAILS AN EXTENDED COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS, ESPECIALLY
THE CAMS, HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE QUAD
STATE TODAY AND DELAYED ONSET OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT TO ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD
BY EARLY TUESDAY, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS (80-100% CHANCE) TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH HAS A PORTION OF SEMO UPGRADED TO A D2 SLIGHT
RISK AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BEGINS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE VARIED
TIMING AND POSITIONING OF MCS FEATURES, SOME OF WHICH WOULD KEEP
SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING ACTIVITY MUDDIES THE PICTURE FOR WHAT FOLLOWS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
BUT REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY. OVERALL QPF REMAINS AROUND 1-1.75IN WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT, WITHOUT
CAUSING MUCH OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY LIKELY BUT CARRIES
UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST THAT MEETS UP NEAR THE
QUAD STATE. A CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK WHILE SYSTEMS PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE. ONE OF THOSE NORTHERN TRACK SYSTEMS
REACHES THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND MAY EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE QUAD STATE BUT NBM POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT SO THIS COULD WELL STAY NORTH AND/OR WEAKEN.
SUNDAY POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ARE A MIX OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PLACING THE QUAD STATE EITHER ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW, IN THE PATH OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST, OR SOME OF BOTH.
TEMPERATURES SURGE TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, LIFTING
HIGHS TO AROUND 80. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZES KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. RAINY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
LIMIT HIGHS AND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN US TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK. A WARMING TREND
AFTERWARDS LIFTS HIGHS TO THE MID-70S NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED SHRA
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
LLWS OVERNIGHT, AS WE LOSE THE SURFACE GUSTS THIS EVENING AND
2KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS MIXING
RETURNS TOMORROW MORNING, SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 15-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-28 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY WILL JUST HAVE SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING TO
8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
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