470
FXUS63 KPAH 101158
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
658 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-50%) RETURN TO THE AREA
TODAY FOR MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-50%) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF THE KC AREA,
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PUSH SOUTH TODAY. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY IT. WHILE THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE,
SHEAR IS VERY LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE FRONT STALLS OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE STALLED OUT
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATE WEEKEND FEATURES INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. MOST OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS AS ACTIVITY GETS PUSHED FURTHER NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING US MORE
APPRECIABLE RAIN/STORM CHANCES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A FRONT NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH MOST READINGS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS TIE OR SEE RECORDS HIGHS AND WARM LOWS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN NBM
GENERALLY SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A 50-80% PROBABILITY OF
SEEING GREATER THAN 85 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH TODAY WILL OFFER A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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