336
FXUS63 KPAH 250856
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AREA OF RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL USHER IN DRY
AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IS FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKES AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENNYRILE
OF WEST KENTUCKY. A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE UP THROUGH THAT REGION
FROM WEST TENNESSEE AND CAUSE THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AS IT
APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT SHOULD
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED, BUT A WIND ADVISORY SHOULDN'T BE NECESSARY.
NOT SEEING ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR, AND THE 00Z HREF DOES
NOT BRING ANY TANGIBLE MUCAPE INTO THE AREA, SO THE THUNDER MAY
NOT MATERIALIZE. REGARDLESS, THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL 0.75" OF
RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE WHERE GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE ENTIRE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL, A
TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST, LEADING TO
PERSISTENT AND ACTIVE SOUTHWEST OR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE COLD SURFACE HIGH
INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THERE ARE A MULTITUDE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
WHICH WILL IMPACT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE.
DEPENDING ON THE DETAILS OF THE TROUGH OUT WEST, SOME OF THE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION COULD REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES
INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AT SUNRISE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS STILL GENERATING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY SATURDAY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR ANY IMPACTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL AND WOULD DISSIPATE LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THERE ARE VARIOUS OTHER SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY
CONCERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
IMPACTFUL IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY, SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOUR DAY FORECAST
RAINFALL RANGES FROM 1.5" IN THE FAR NORTH TO 3.5" OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS COULD BE WAY OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.
THERE IS A LOT TO BE WORKED OUT YET FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, AND UNTIL MORE OF A CONSENSUS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS RAINS
SET IN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM.
ACCOMPANYING WILL BE RESTRICTED CIGS (IFR) AND VSBYS (MVFR) THAT
WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT, WITH OCCASIONAL/TEMPORARY MOMENTS OF
FURTHER DETERIORATION THRU RESTRICTED CATS. THE SYSTEM'S
PASSAGE/DEPARTURE BY LATE TMRW WILL REVERSE THE TREND, THOUGH
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW/GRADUAL, MAINTAINING RESTRICTED BASES INTO AND PERHAPS
LINGERING THRU A GOOD PART OF THE THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF
THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
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