120
FXUS63 KPAH 181950
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (40-70% CHANCE), AND LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND (THURSDAY IS THE DRIEST) WITH COOLER LATE WEEK HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BRUSH AGAINST THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE QUAD STATE, TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
SEPARATELY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE QUAD STATE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
PRESENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS AN IMPULSE FROM TEXAS MOVES THROUGH. CAMS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE HRRR EAGER TO GENERATE STORMS
FROM THE IMPULSE, WHILE THE ARW FAVORS A MISSOURI MCS EARLY
EVENING. CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THE MISSOURI
CONVECTION TRACKS NEAR/ALONG I-64 WHILE THE IMPULSE TRACKS NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. MLCAPE IS UP TO 1500-2500J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS 20-30KTS. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY PWS OF 1.8-2.0IN. A MARGINAL RISK COVERS
MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE WITH A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTH, AND SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS MORE LIMITED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS THOUGH,
OF THE PRIMARY LAKES, ONLY LAKE BARKLEY/KENTUCKY LAKE HAVE
AVOIDED THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS/STORMS.
MODELS AGREE ON AN OVERNIGHT MCS IN MISSOURI WEAKENING ON
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED POPS IN THE WEST TUESDAY
MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES, OR A NEW MCS,
ARE VARIED ACROSS MODELS MAKING TIMING DIFFICULT. ONE THE
ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES KNOWN, IT
WILL HELP SHAPE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. MORE
COMMONLY IN THE MODELS AT THE MOMENT, A BAND OF STORMS PUSHES
EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO THE EVENING WITH AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PW VALUES REMAINS HIGH, WITH CONTINUED
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS SURGE TO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN.
PLENTY OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT SHEAR IS EVEN MORE LIMITED
THAN TODAY AND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS
MOST OF THE QUAD STATE.
WHEN IT COMES TO RAINFALL, SOME MODELS PRODUCE A MAX ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER INTO SWIN WITH HEAVY DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING FROM
THE TEXAS SOURCED IMPULSE TODAY. OTHERWISE, MODELS FOCUS ON THE
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTH THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EITHER OF THESE ZONES IS
POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FLOODING
POTENTIAL LIMITED FOR TODAY. AS FOR TOMORROW, MODELS DON'T TEND
TO SHOW MUCH OF ANY TRAINING BUT, SHOULD ANY OCCUR OVER AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE DECENT RAINFALL TODAY, FLOODING ISSUES CAN
DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS DROP TO
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE MIDWEEK
LOWS DROP TO THE 50S. TEMPERATURES TREND SLOWLY WARMER LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS (MAINLY IN THE SOUTH). THURSDAY HAS THE
DRIEST ENSEMBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BUT OUTLIERS EXIST SUCH AS THE GFS WHICH TRACKS A SMALL SURFACE
LOW THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
BACK NORTH FRIDAY AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT YIELDS LIKELY-
CATEGORICAL POPS. THE BOUNDARY COULD HELP WITH PRODUCING SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LREF 7-DAY RAINFALL HAS A 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD OF 1.5-3 INCHES, WHICH WOULD HELP WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HEAVIER BANDING
IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KMVN AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE, ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
AND LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR SEVERAL HOURS IN A ROW
FOR SOME SITES. THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE AREA HAS THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS, AS
ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BREEZY WINDS GUSTING TO 18-25KTS TODAY DROP TO AROUND
8-10KTS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH RAIN
BEGINNING TO RE-ENTER THE PICTURE IN THE WEST AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ075-
081-085.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ100.
IN...NONE.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ007>009-011-012.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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