386
FXUS63 KPAH 151125
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
525 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WHERE A DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THERE IS A 90% OR GREATER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH TO 10 DEGREES IN
THE FAR SOUTH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED AREAS COULD
SEE A LIGHT DUSTING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT, AND THE RESULTING
WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 00Z GEFS INDICATES
A 50-70% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS, WHILE THE ECENS HAS EVEN HIGHER
CHANCES. CONSSHORT POPS WERE USED TO BRING OUR POPS UP TO
40-50% IN THAT AREA, AS THE NBM IS STILL TOO LOW. THE NBM DOES
SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF THERE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, AND READINGS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO FREEZING, SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO ONLY BE ON
ELEVATED SURFACE AND IN THE GRASS. NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH POCKETS OF LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT, THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.
THE 00Z GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WE COLLABORATED WITH OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEIGHBORS TO ADD
20-30% CHANCES OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE EXCEPTIONS WERE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND A SMALL ADJACENT PORTION OF THE PURCHASE AREA. THE NBM
ACTUALLY HAS SOME 20% POPS ON SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION. ISOLATED SNOW BURSTS COULD RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NBM
HAS NO QPF AT THIS TIME, SO THERE ARE NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THIS FORECAST. GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE, SOME ISOLATED TRAVEL
ISSUES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR THE COLD AIR, AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE EARLY SATURDAY,
A REINFORCING SHOT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ZERO OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EACH MORNING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EACH MORNING.
THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT RELAXES TOWARD MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A NICE WARM, AS WE ATTEMPT TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR.
HOPEFULLY, THE WARM ADVECTION DOES NOT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
BEFORE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED SAFELY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
THE NBM BRINGS SMALL CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE QUAD STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE QUITE A
BIT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MID TO LATE WEEK,
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM KMVN THROUGH KEVV
AND KOWB OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH
THE HEAVIER SNOW, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY AT KEVV IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page