525
FXUS63 KPAH 231107
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A MEAGER CHANCE FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MONDAY'S SET UP LOOKS MORE POTENT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY WITH BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH NBM HAVING A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF
REACHING AT LEAST 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY. THE WESTERN TROF ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS THE TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WE CAN EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS MEAGER WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6-6.5 DEGC/KM, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS,
AND CAMS HAVE AROUND 500-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE (BOUNDARY LAYER) LATE
ON FRIDAY AND 1,000-1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE (ELEVATED). RAIN CHANCES
PEAK FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (60-95%). AS FOR
THE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, NBM HAS A ROUGHLY 45-55% CHANCE OF AN INCH
OR MORE MAINLY OVER SEMO.
MONDAY'S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE POTENT AND A BETTER SET UP FOR
SEVERE. A STOUT SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROLLS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COUPLED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT. WHILE AN
EML MAY CREATE A BIT OF A CAP, THERE IS STILL AROUND 2,000-2,500
J/KG OF MLCAPE, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 DEGC/KM, 40-45
KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH
THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WILL BEAR WATCHING.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WAVES POSSIBLY ROLL THROUGH NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY
WINDS AGAIN TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS. SOME MID LEVEL CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
MAINLY AFTER 12Z AT THE TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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