485
FXUS63 KPAH 201132
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO GRADUALLY FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH THESE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- 30-60% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 20-30% CHANCES TAPERING OFF WEST TO
EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT, FINALLY ENDING THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL STILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL REALLY FILTER IN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES, AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL COME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A
LITTLE WITH THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WHICH
ARE NOW FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (30-60% CHANCES) WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING MAY BE FAIRLY
QUIET, BUT CHANCES CRANK BACK UP TO 30-50% ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. 20-30% CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THUNDER
POTENTIAL ENDING BY LATE EVENING. BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. AT KMVN, INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 06Z, WITH A PROB30
OF -TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z-12Z. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
WILL BECOME W/SW AROUND 6KTS AFTER 15Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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