507
FXUS63 KPAH 301121
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A
70-100% OF HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 30S.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO END 2025 AND OPEN 2026 WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S FORECAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
(25-50%) MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
CHILLY NW H5 FLOW WILL KEEP COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE EVV TRI-STATE (AND MAY PRODUCE A TRY FLURRY), BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STRONGLY FAVORS (70-100%) HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
30S AGAIN ACROSS THE MOST OF THE REGION. AS H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AND WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS (25-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH MUCH OF
WESTERN KY. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER,
ONLY AROUND 10-25%. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE ONLY THE LIGHT
SIDE, WITH NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING A 10-30% OF ANY
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.25" OF RAIN OR
MORE BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2026 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
LINGERING MVFR LOW STRATUS WILL EXIT THE OWB AREA BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE, ONLY HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE STEADY
FROM THE NW AT 6-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT
EVV. WINDS WILL RELAX TO AROUND 4-7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE W-WSW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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