127
FXUS63 KPAH 280600
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE IS ONGOING, AND WILL ACCELERATE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PCPN WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP/SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SHORT RES CAM'S BLOW UP WARM
ADVECTION OVERRUNNING RAINS OVER THE AREA, AND DAILY THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF WOBBLES A BIT TO THE NORTH, TODAY BEING NO
EXCEPTION. AM THEREFORE COMFORTABLE WITH PREVIOUS NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF FFA, WITH THE WATCH COUNTIES ACCOUNTING FOR ALL 2+
INCH STORM TOTAL COUNTIES. THIS EXCLUDES ONLY THE 5 NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN IL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN SEMO WATCH
COUNTIES BEING LOWER IS SUPERSEDED BY 1/4 TO ISOLATED 1/2 INCH
TOTALS RECEIVED THUS FAR, PUTTING THEIR STORM TOTALS CLOSER TO 2
INCHES AS WELL. CONTINUE TO SEE CONCERNING SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED
LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ENHANCING 6 HOUR TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER, WHERE FORECAST AMOUNTS EXCEED THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAKE US CONSIDER ADDING
WABASH AND EDWARDS COUNTIES, BUT SINCE THIS AXIS HAS WOBBLED SO
MUCH, AND APPEARS TO BE SETTLING SOUTH OF THERE, WE'VE LEFT THE
HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW.
ONCE CONCERN WE HAVE IN TODAY'S MODELING IS THE NORTHWARD BUMP AND
NEWLY AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD OFFSET THE NORTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE FIRST QPF AXIS, AND YIELDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN A GOOD 2+ INCH RAINFALL BEING ABLE TO BE ACHIEVED ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY INCLUDE
SOME SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY, AS WE SEE DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG/EAST OF THE LAKES, WHERE FORECAST HIGHS PUSH INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S NOW. THUS THE SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF 0-1KM
MU CAPE MAY BE TAPPABLE, AS THE PRIMARY STORM FRONT MAKES ITS
APPROACH/PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. WE SEE THE LATEST DAY 2
SWO JUST ISSUED NUDGES THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THIS AREA AS WELL,
SO THEY ARE OBVIOUSLY SEEING/THINKING THE SAME.
THE EVENT WINDS DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MONDAY OFFERING A POST SYSTEM PAUSE AND A RETURN TO A SEASONALLY
COOLER AIRMASS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WE STILL PUT IT ABOUT AVERAGE WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
STILL OUTSTANDING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S., FORECAST
TO BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.
EACH ONE WILL GIVE THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA A RELATIVELY BRIEF
CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE EMANATES FROM AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER ARIZONA ON SUNDAY THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY.
THE 12Z GFS/GEFS APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OTHER MODEL SETS IN DEPICTING THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. FOR THE
IMMEDIATE REGION, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS PRIMARILY FROM LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THE RAIN MAY MISS
THE AREA COMPLETELY TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH, AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.
AFTER SOME TIME TO DRY OUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SECOND CLOSED
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK, REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA REGION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST
ECMWF/ECENS APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER
MODEL SETS IN SHOWING THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST LOW, BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA, AND THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THE RAIN MAY COMPLETELY MISS
US TO THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY ARE TARGETED FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THE PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR
BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
IFR/INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO OCCUR. SOME
TEMPORARY CIG INCREASES TO MVFR MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. IN THE AFTERNOON, AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR/VFR WILL BE SEEN. AS THE WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT, THEY ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP FIRST AROUND DAYBREAK SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER,
EVENTUALLY GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE TN STATE LINE, THEN PICK
UP LATER ELSEWHERE, BUT WITH LESS INTENSITY. LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE SPARSE SIDE, BUT ITS LIKELIHOOD WAS NOT DEEMED HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ILZ081>086-088-089-092-093.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR ILZ087-090-091-094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR INZ081-082.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR INZ085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KYZ001>022.
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