830
FXUS63 KPAH 011122
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
522 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-85% CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
TONIGHT. NORTH OF I-64 COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX IN. LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
- A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK TO MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WITH A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 3" THROUGH TUESDAY, MARCH 10TH.
- WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BEING
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CHILLIER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT HAVE
TRENDED BACK WARMER AGAIN BY 2-3 DEGREES WITH DAY TIME FORECAST RUNS
AND HAVE MAINTAINED WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS. SO PRECIP SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN BRIEFLY
NORTH OF I-64. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET, NBM HAS A ROUGHLY 40-70% CHANCE OF A
HALF INCH OR GREATER, THE LREF IS LESS AT AROUND 20-50% OF A HALF
INCH OR GREATER. THE GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHERN SEMO
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN IL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTER MONDAY A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE THAT WILL RESULT IN
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AND PUT US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
FOCUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDWEEK WITH
BROAD TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES LEAVING THE WESTERN
TROF WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LREF HAS A 30-50% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 3" TOTAL THROUGH THE MORNING OF TUESDAY, MARCH 10TH.
THE CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL (MAINLY FROM WPC) HAS AREAS OF
5" THROUGH SUNDAY, MARCH 8TH. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO
IRON OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THOUGH, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO
WATCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS, VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES. WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMES A LOWER MVFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE MODEST AT AROUND 7-14 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. CGI MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 7-9 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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