511
FXUS63 KPAH 121136
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A 50-85% CHANCE (FROM NE
TO SW) OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
AT THIS TIME, A TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE QUAD STATE REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THAT DIRECTION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WELL OFF THE
SOCAL COAST WILL LIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER TEXAS, CONTINUING TO THE MID-SOUTH
(WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF QUAD STATE TO
MISSISSIPPI FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER) BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC OFF OF SC/GA. RAIN BEGINS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE WEST, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THEIR PATTERN WITH THE EURO FURTHEST SOUTH IN
TRACK AND CANADIAN FURTHER NORTH. NOTABLY THE 12KM NAM SHOWS A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NEAR A
WEST-EAST AREA OF GREATER FORCING SO RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
EVENT MAY SHOW HIGHER TOTALS IN THE NORTH WHILE THE SOUTH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY SEE MORE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OVERALL, HEAVIER RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH.
PROBABILITIES OF 1+ INCH OF RAIN HAVE GONE UP SOME IN THE
LATEST ITERATION OF THE NBM, UP TO 50-85% FROM NE TO SW, WITH
SIMILAR ORIENTATION FOR 2+ INCH PROBABILITIES OF 15-40%. A D3
SLIGHT RISK ERO COVERS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NEARBY AREAS,
WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE. ASIDE
FROM THE SNOW FROM TWO WEEKS AGO THAT RECENTLY MELTED OFF,
THERE'S BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A
WHILE, AND THE BOOTHEEL IS A MORE DIFFICULT PLACE TO GET
FLOODING. WITH RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER 36 HRS, FLOOD IMPACTS
STILL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL AND WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE 2+ INCH
TOTALS TO DEVELOP ANY ISSUES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SLIPS
INTO SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER; A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
INCOMING RIDGING AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA MONDAY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK,
WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING A BIT OF RAIN FOR THE QUAD
STATE FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MIDWEEK POPS
OF 30% OR LOWER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS ONLY INCREASE TO AROUND 5KTS
DURING THE DAY, WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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