461
FXUS63 KPAH 230432
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF
IMPACTFUL WEATHER AND OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID
WEEK.
BEFORE WE ADDRESS THE NEAR TERM, WE SHOULD NOTE THAT WE ARE ENDING
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SEASON GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
SEVERAL FROSTS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. COORDINATION WITH AGRICULTURAL
EXPERTS TODAY INDICATES THAT LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED
GOING FORWARD AND THE GROWING SEASON HAS EFFECTIVELY ENDED FOR
ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE
OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEW POINTS
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE IMPACT
TO TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARMER START TO THE
DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MAKE THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE APPROACH OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE BONA FIDE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT
WILL BE COOLER WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
WEDNESDAY HIGHS 55 TO 60. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER IN THE BALLPARK OF 40 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
A CONTINUATION OF THIS COOL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG TERM. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE WILLA WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF WILLA, CREATING A
LARGE 500 MB CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN US. A NOREASTER WILL TRACK
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND, DRAGGING CHILLY AIR
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION.
AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, THE REMNANTS OF WILLA COULD SPREAD RAIN
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS, EXCEPT UP TO 50 PERCENT
IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KY. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE
LOWER AND MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF WILLA.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR. DESPITE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 500 MB LOW WILL WRAP UP OVER
THE EASTERN STATES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ANY
IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND COLD 850 TEMPS. A FEW DEGREES
WERE SHAVED OFF THE MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY HIGH TEMPS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH JUST
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KTS AFTER
13Z, THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS AFTER 01Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST
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