912
FXUS63 KPAH 271612
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1112 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE QUAD STATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ELEVATED ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
THIS MORNING THAT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL
BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TORNADOES, VERY
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. DISCRETE
STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND EMBEDDED STRONG TORNADOES.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE WIND
GUSTS BRIEFLY REACH 40 MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE HAZARDS OF CONCERN.
THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF TOTAL 48 HOUR RAINFALL OF 2
INCHES OR MORE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MOST OF THE PERIOD IS DRY, BUT A 20-30%
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS RETURN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS MORNING,
WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MCS LIFTS MORE NORTHEAST, DESTABILIZATION WILL
QUICKLY OCCUR WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES
PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE AIR MASS
RECOVERY BY THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY TRANSLATES TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE AND 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINED
WITH 300-400 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH AND STP VALUES OF 3.0-6.0,
STRONG EF3+ TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL OVER 2 INCHES, AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORM MODE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE DISCRETE WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A CLUSTER
OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING. AS A MESO LOW NEAR STL LIFTS
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, THE WINDS AT THE SFC BECOME MORE BACKED,
ESPECIALLY IN SPCS 15% TORNADO RISK THAT CLIPS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
WHILE THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST, MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN STRONG FOR THE STORM MODE TO TRANSITION TO LINE SEGMENTS
THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
QLCS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL OCCUR
WITH DCAPE OVER 1200 J/KG. EMBEDDED STRONG TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
LIKELY WITH SFC-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS. INSTABILITY BEGINS
TO DROP OFF AS STORMS MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE
WESTERN KENTUCKY PENNYRILE, ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAKENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING 40 MPH
LOCALLY. MOST GUSTS HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.
GIVEN THE BRIEF DURATION, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE IMPACTS WILL BE SUBTLE COMPARED TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THAT WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE FA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES TROUGH WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CAMS SHOW A MCS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 8.0-9.0 C/KM. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH
LOWER INTENSITY COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT 15 KTS OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SPIN UPS. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS MORE
NORTH AND CONVECTION TRENDS SLOWER, CONVECTION WOULD OVERLAP WITH
THE BETTER 40 KT LLJ IN THE EVENING TO SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION, THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING HAS INCREASED WITH ANOTHER 3 ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. TOTAL 48 HOUR RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES, WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND LOW-LYING LOCATIONS THAT ARE MORE
SENSITIVE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DAILY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TRENDING WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THE GEFS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT TRACKS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH QPF
BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. MEANWHILE, THE EPS AND GEPS KEEPS
THIS SYSTEM MORE SUPPRESSED WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. A DRY
WEEKEND THEN FOLLOWS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. PLAYED THE ONGOING
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS AT ALL SITES, AND THEN A
COUPLE HOURS WITH THE LINE IN THE EVENING. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION EITHER IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH DID TEMPO AN MVFR CEILING THIS AFTERNOON AT
KCGI.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page