649
FXUS63 KPAH 051833
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOVING
INTO THE UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUBBLING UP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT. OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE LAYER OF INSTABILITY THESE CU ARE FORMING IS VERY
SHALLOW AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS QUITE LIMITED BUT THE CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE FURTHER PUSH THE SOUPY AIRMASS
OVER TX/AR INTO THE AREA AND WE GET BACK INTO A SUMMERTIME
SHOWER AND STORM PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THERE
ARE WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT PASS ALONG JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW
OF THESE COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSE/FOCUSED ACTIVITY.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE
1.9-2.2" PWATS AND SLOW STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
MONITORING FOR FLOODING AT TIMES. FORCING GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKS
TO REMAIN FAIRLY DIFFUSE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND
GENERATING MORE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT TREND
HOLDS THOUGH AS ITS BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND A
STILL A WAYS OFF. SEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN FORECAST
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 EACH AFTERNOON AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. GROUND FOG IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS THE ONLY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPEDIMENT, BUT
CONDITIONS DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION BEFORE SUNRISE
BRINGS MIXING AND BETTER VISIBILITY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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