070  
FXUS63 KPAH 231136  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
636 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTHWEST OF  
OUR CWA AS OF 3AM, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP  
AHEAD OF IT. AREAS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA,  
PARTICULARLY UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL  
RAIN (0.25-0.75"). UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE THE CASE  
FURTHER SOUTH, WITH LIGHT QPF EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS PROGRESS  
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR  
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY. THUS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN  
WEST KY THIS MORNING, SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE  
DAY, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL  
LIKE FALL, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY, WITH  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATER IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT.  
THIS WILL ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN  
OUR WEST.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CURRENT  
THINKING CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ON AVERAGE, QPF  
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT VALUES  
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES, WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVIER  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE. WHEN IN DROUGHT, IT IS  
HARD TO GET OUT OF IT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY  
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST  
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH THE FRONT  
FARTHER SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST, AND WEAK  
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY INTO FRIDAY. BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. THERE IS  
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT  
AND WHETHER IT WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF OUR REGION PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS POINT,  
AND WENT WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
KEPT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY  
LOW RIGHT NOW WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL  
STRENGTHEN, AND OTHERS INDICATING THE FRONT MAKING A LITTLE MORE  
SOUTHERN PROGRESS.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
THURSDAY FAIRLY PLEASANT AND NEAR SEASONAL. THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO  
OUR EAST BY FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED  
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
IFR CIGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN  
KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT  
PASSES, AND THEN BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SP  
SHORT TERM...SP  
LONG TERM...RST  
AVIATION...SP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab MO Page Main Text Page