778
FXUS63 KPAH 021753
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1253 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON FOR 40 MPH OR
GREAT WIND GUSTS. ELSEWHERE 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM IOWA NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MAKES IT
TO NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THINK THE BEST AREA TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. WIND SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
QUALITY OF THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY WANE IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF
40 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY MORNING WE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1-2" OF RAINFALL STILL SEEMS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY, BUT WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING NEXT WEEK
WITH THE COOLEST NIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WHERE LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S. NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS 8-12 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FIRST IMPACT CGI AND THEN
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>089-092-093.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
109>112-114.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>004.
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