785
FXUS63 KPAH 311715
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL DOWN FOLLOWS BY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RETURNING LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY; JUST SHY OF 1 INCH TO
JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES ARE THE CUMULATIVE AVERAGE STORM TOTAL
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL SOON CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST, AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO SINK OUR
DIRECTION. WE'LL BE IN A STRICTLY WARM ADVECTION ENVIRON
FINISHING OUT THE WORK WEEK, SO WARM/JUICY RETURN FLOW SEES
DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER HALF 80S WHILE DEW POINTS
CLIMB TO AROUND 60F. A FIRST WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AND OFFERS MORE OR LESS A GLANCING SHOT HERE, SOMETHING
TO WATCH BUT BEST THERMODYNAMICS WITH IT LOOK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. AFTER A BRIEF PAUSE, THE NEXT AND MORE ROBUST
WAVE DROPS INTO THE FORECAST PICTURE THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION, OFFERING PERHAPS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER FOR STRONGER
STORMS/BETTER RAINFALL SATURDAY. ITS MAIN IMPACT THEREAFTER
WILL BE A STRONG COOLDOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OR EVEN JUST
BELOW AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WEEK IN THE 50S/60S FOR HIGHS AND
30S/40S FOR LOWS. THE COMBO OF CLEARING SKY/DIMINISHING WIND
WITH FALLING/COLDEST TEMPS IN THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT OFFERS
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST HEADLINES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER NIGHTFALL. BASES WILL BE
SCT-BKN VFR, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER ENTERING KMVN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS
VFR BASES LOWER. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH AGAIN TMRW, THOUGH
WITH LESS AMPLITUDE THAN TODAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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