495
FXUS63 KPAH 192025
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PCPN, ONLY PERHAPS ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDINESS HERE AND THERE,
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA TODAY.
IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW BEHIND IT, HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AGAIN AS THE SOUTHERN LIMB OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, SOUTH OF
A LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO TANK IN SOME SPOTS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IF
THE SKY CLEARS FOR LONG ENOUGH, BUT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK SAT, SOME SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR,
BUT PROBABLY ONLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWESTERN IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
ON SAT NIGHT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL
MO, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR (LIMITED
INSTABILITY) FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE IN THE
EVENING MAINLY NORTHWEST, DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY SUN, MODELS SHOWED THAT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL BE
COMMON, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KY AND EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN IN, SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
THE MODEL TRENDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING A DRY AND
SEASONAL WEEK OF WEATHER. THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH OUR FA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROF. PRIOR
MODEL RUNS WANTED TO BACKWRAP OR OVERRUN THE RECENTLY PASSED
BOUNDARY WITH POPS, PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS, WE'LL ELIMINATE ANY SUCH BLENDING THAT STILL LINGERS OR AT
LEAST MAKE IT SILENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE FA AND BROADER REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK SIGNALS CONSISTENTLY, EVEN AS AN OPEN WAVE OF
ENERGY DROPS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE BELIEVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP POPS SILENT THEN AS WELL.
BY DAYS 6-7 AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WE SEE THE HIGH SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND A VEERING OF THE FLOW IN THE LOWER TROP, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLIES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP NUDGE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, INTO THE UPPER
60S. THE NBM SUGGESTS A DIURNALLY FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR STORM CHANCE IN RESPONSE, AND WE CANNOT ARGUE WITH IT.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. IF A DIRECTION COULD BE SELECTED, IT WOULD BE SOUTHERLY.
SAT MORNING, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT
6 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IN THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS, THE
HYDROLAPSE, WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER
INDICATE YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
USED PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE, AT LEAST IN PART.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB
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