054
FXUS63 KPAH 141700
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY IS A NEAR CERTAINTY
(90+%) WITH STORM TOTAL AVERAGES FROM 0.25-0.75" EXPECTED. A
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- MORE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY IS LIKELY (70+%) WITH
STORM TOTAL AVERAGES FROM 0.25-0.50" EXPECTED. A STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SEASONAL MID APRIL NORMS TO BEGIN
THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
BALMY WARMTH MORE TYPICAL OF THE GULF COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
CONTINUES. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN TMRW, HERE ARE THE EXISTING RECORDS:
WEDNESDAY
PAH 88 (1977)
EVV 86 (2024)
CGI 87 (1992)
POF 88 (1936)
MDH 87 (2024)
WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MOVE IN/OVERTOP THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. THE NBM IS UP TO NEAR CERTAINTY POPS
FOR THE EVENT, AND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, SPC NOW OUTLOOKS A
MRGNL RISK SVR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THAT'S GOING TO
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE THEN, AFTER
THE MORNING BOUT OF RAIN/DENSER ASSOCIATED CLOUD. THE BETTER
CHANCE LOOKS SHIFTED EASTWARD, BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
WHOLE HERE EITHER.
AFTER CONVECTIVE RECOVERY, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
YET. THE NBM HAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S. IF WE OVER-ACHIEVE JUST A LITTLE, WE CAN POTENTIALLY
YIELD OUR (PAH) EARLIEST 90F HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD; THE
LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THE CHANCE THAT 90F WILL BE REACHED
IS ABOUT 10%. HERE ARE FRIDAY'S RECORD HIGHS AND OUR EARLIEST
RECORDED 90F HIGHS:
FRIDAYEARLIEST 90F HIGH
PAH 87 (1977) APRIL 21, 1987 (90F)
EVV 88 (1977) APRIL 16, 1987 (90F)
CGI 86 (1977) APRIL 20, 1987 (90F)
POF 89 (1977) MARCH 24, 1929 (92F)
MDH 89 (1977) MARCH 23, 1910 (93F)
THE SYSTEM MAKES ROBUST PASSAGE SATURDAY WITH OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY (70+%) TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS AND ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGES OF 0.25-0.50"
RAINFALL. AFTER FROPA, WE COOL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL MID APRIL
HIGHS/LOWS TO START OUT THE NEW WEEK.
CUMULATIVE AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO MAIN ROUNDS
OF THE WEEK ADDS UP TO 0.50-1.25". THE NBM EXTENDED PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST A 30-50% CHANCE THAT TOTAL EXCEEDS 1", WHICH IF IT IS
REALIZED, WOULD OFFER SOME NEEDED RELIEF FOR OUR DROUGHT PARCHED
GROUNDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PEAK WITH GUSTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH TODAY-TMRW. SCT-BKN BASES, MAINLY VFR, WILL
HOLD THRU THE PACKAGE IN THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRON. PCPN CHANCES
ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO MOSTLY PRECLUDE FROM MENTION, BUT PROB30S DO
INTRODUCE OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE PACKAGE AT KMVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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