490
FXUS63 KPAH 140514
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE VERY PLEASANT MAY DAY IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY START TO EMERGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MODEST (30-40%) RETURN TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (50-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN IS
AROUND 50-60% THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
OUR STRETCH OF EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT MAY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES THE LENGTH OF THE
CONUS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT 1019MB OR SO WILL SET BASICALLY ON TOP
OF THE AREA TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY LOW WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY RIDING IN ON THOSE WINDS. GFS/ECMWF SPIT OUT A LITTLE
PRECIP TRIGGERED BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BUT COLUMN MOISTURE
GENERALLY APPEARS LACKING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES OVERHEAD
OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE FORCING AND AVAILABLE COLUMN
MOISTURE ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE AND WHILE THERE ARE RAIN CHANCES
THEY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL END UP PRETTY SCATTER SHOT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WORKING INTO THE 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST.
LARGE SCALE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES FLIPPING THOUGH THE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS MODELED ON
MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT STARTS TO STALL WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS RESULTS FOR NOW IN THE AREA STUCK
MOSTLY IN THE SOUPY SIDE OF THE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY DAILY RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER PERIODS EMERGE IN THIS
PATTERN BUT THEY ARE HARD TO FIND FOR NOW. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR
NOW WITH MOST OF THE THREAT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT THERE, BUT IT IS NOT EXACTLY JUMPING OFF THE
PAGE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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