750
FXUS63 KPAH 151719
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
105 DEGREES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL BE 30% TO 60% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHER CHANCES OF 50% TO 80% WILL BE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, TAPERING DOWN TO 20% IN THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS.
- 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
TUESDAY, AND THROUGH THIS PERIOD WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HELP KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOST OF WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY HEAT OF
THE DAY CHANCES (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. ON FRIDAY, AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, INCREASING CHANCES TO 50-80% EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, TAPERING DOWN TO 20% IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN RAMP UP
THE CHANCES ON SATURDAY TO 50-70% IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST
KENTUCKY, WITH 20-40% CHANCES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION, AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH, BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES WILL MAX OUT
IN THE 20-40% RANGE. BEYOND SUNDAY, MINIMAL CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KCGI/KPAH. ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-13Z MAINLY AT
KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. WINDS WILL BE FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
5KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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