810  
FXUS63 KPAH 182303  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
603 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS KEPT WINDS  
NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO  
THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HEADS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE WEEKEND, WHILE REMAINING MAINLY  
EASTERLY.  
 
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE OUR DRIEST AIR IN MONTHS AS DEW POINTS DROP  
TO THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW  
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW MAINLY IN THE  
LOWER 70S. IN SHELTERED AREAS WITH CALM WINDS, LOWS COULD DROP TO  
NEAR 40. A SLOW WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL BEGIN ON  
SUNDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
THE DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH PLEASANT  
DAYTIME TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL.  
 
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT  
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
WILL MOVE EAST BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A 500 MB  
SHORTWAVE TO DIG STRONGLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE  
COULD EASILY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE  
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAKNESS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS WELL AS ITS SHORT DURATION. THEREFORE, THE GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF LOOKS REASONABLE IN KEEPING PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.  
 
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST INTO  
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.  
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF THE AIR MASS WE WILL BE  
ACCUSTOMED TO, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR 80.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
THE TAFS ARE VFR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  
SUPPRESS CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT STEADY  
NE WINDS AOA 5-10 KTS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DWS  
SHORT TERM...ATL  
LONG TERM...MY  
AVIATION...DWS  
 
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