421
FXUS63 KPAH 201149
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND ON TUESDAY WITH
TUESDAY OFFERING THE BEST CHANCES. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND MORE INTO THE
LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES.
- THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR
UNHEALTHY AIR DUE TO THE ONGOING ONTARIO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
TODAY AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER RAIN CHANCES, AT LEAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA, ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SHEAR FROM A JET TO THE NORTH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATER THREAT
REMAINS TO OUR EAST BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OVERLAP OF
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS. TIMING CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT IT IS
NOTED THAT EARLY LOOK AT THE CAMS DO SUGGEST ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAY OFFER MORE RAIN
CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGHS PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX READINGS APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF
CONVECTION, UPGRADED HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-080>082-
084>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>017-021-022.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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