756
FXUS63 KPAH 101754
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-50%) RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
- AFTER A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. THERE IS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF REACHING 85 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THESE
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED BUT A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS
WILL ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH THERE TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS OUT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL WAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK, AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NBM ONLY GIVES US A 10-20% CHANCE AT OBSERVING
A HALF INCH FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ODDS INCREASE
TO 40-50% CHANCE AT RECEIVING AT LEAST A HALF INCH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. OUR BEST CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THE ENTIRE WEEK MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY WHEN
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
REGION, ALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION
TO SEEP INTO PARTS OF THE QUAD STATE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS PADUCAH
REACHING 80 FOR 8 STRAIGHT DAYS, WHICH HASN'T HAPPENED IN THE MONTH
OF APRIL SINCE 1977. RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE MANY DAYS (SUNDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY). WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT HITTING 85 ON
SUNDAY (50-80% CHANCE VIA THE NBM) WHILE MORE OF THE REGION MAY
REACH THAT THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY (70-90% CHANCE), WEDNESDAY (60-80%
CHANCE), AND FRIDAY (70-80% CHANCE). CERTAINLY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
JUNE NEXT WEEK THAN APRIL!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL OFFER A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING PRIMARILY
AT WESTERN TERMINALS (KMVN/KCGI).
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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