933
FXUS63 KPAH 211712
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF FIRE AS WELL AS AREA LAKE RECREATION THRU
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- DAILY HIGHS PUSH 80F THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 80F CWA-WIDE IS THURSDAY, AT >90% CHANCE.
- BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PEAK
POPS AROUND 90%. A STRONGER STORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A WETTER WEEKEND PATTERN EMERGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AN
INCH OR MORE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL. THE NBM/DESI SUGGESTS A
40-60% CHANCE WE REACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND.
- MONDAY OFFERS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A STRONG OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORM WITH SPC OUTLINING A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE CWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS KEEPS FIRE DANGER
HEIGHTENED THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTIATION OF THE WINDS ASSISTS IN HEIGHTENING SOME
RECREATIONAL LAKE DANGERS AS WELL. BOTH FIRE AND LAKE WAVE
HEIGHT DANGER SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
THEIR MID AFTERNOON REALIZED PEAKS OF WIND AND RH DIMINISH UPON
DECOUPLING.
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS ITS EXTENSION ACROSS
OUR AREA AND IS RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND TRANSLATING OVERTOP US WITH TIME HELPS
HEIGHTS RISE HERE AND HOLD STRONG/STEADY THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THE TANGIBLE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER
COUPLE WARM AND DRY DAYS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZINESS. DAILY MAX TEMPS PUSH 80F WITH A SOLID BET FOR
EVERYONE EXCEEDING 80F ON THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE NBM/DESI SUGGESTING A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE
OF SUCH.
BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST PICTURE BY WEEK'S
END, AS SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF AXIS COMES INTO
PLAY. IT BELIES A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN THAT SETS UP
FOR US FOR A MORE SUSTAINED RAINFALL CHANCE OVER THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, AND THE NBM/DESI SUGGESTS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE 1 INCH OR GREATER CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL.
BY DAY 7/NEXT MONDAY, SPC OUTLOOKS THE CWA IN ITS ENTIRETY WITH
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE THAT EXTENDS FROM HERE AT ITS NORTHERN
APEX TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST AS ANOTHER MORE ROBUST/NEARER
WAVE SHOVES ITS WAY COMPLETELY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUN WARM IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 THRU MONDAY, BUT
PRESUMABLY AFTER THAT SYSTEM PASSAGE A COOL DOWN IS IN ORDER AS
WE TRANSITION TO A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE SCHEME FOR THE 8-14
DAY EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE ON TERMINAL FLIGHT
WEATHER. WARM/BREEZY WRAP AROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCLUDE SOME GUSTINESS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK DAYLIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL BASES
CAN BE EXPECTED, AND SOME SCT-BKN BASES LOWERED TO 7K FT AGL
MAY BE IN THE OFFERING TOWARD THE END OF THE PLANNING PHASE OF
THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FROM KMVN-KEVV-KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /10 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
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