692  
FXUS63 KPAH 030814  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
314 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT  
COMPLEX DUE TO THE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE  
AVAILABILITY/ADVECTION ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA, AS WELL A  
MESOSCALE MCS MAINTENANCE AND PROPAGATION.  
 
TO THE SOUTH, IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCLUDING AR/TN, A  
PRE-EXISTING WEAK LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE WILL  
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE WEAK  
SHEAR ALOFT, INSOLATION WILL BE THE KEY TO INITIATE SURFACE  
PARCELS TO GENERATE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE PEAK HEATING PART OF  
THE DAY, WHEN THE GREATEST CAPE AVAILABILITY CAN BE TAPPED. THIS  
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST  
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS  
REMNANTS OF AN EXPECTED MCS OVER NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL PROPAGATE  
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT  
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND INTENSITY  
WITH TIME, MAKING THE SYSTEM MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH TIME. THE  
NAM-WRF GUIDANCE IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MCS PROBABILITIES WORKING  
INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AFTER  
MIDNIGHT, BUT AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE RAP/ECMWF  
SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST  
INDIANA AREAS (CLOSER TO THE 06Z HRRRV4 GUIDANCE). AT THIS TIME,  
FEEL THAT SPC'S OUTLOOK AREA FOR MAINLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER IN  
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IS QUITE OPTIMISTIC. CANNOT RULE OUT  
SOME WIND POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR  
THIS EVENING, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. WE WILL SEE.  
 
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS  
FROM THE NORTH, WILL THE DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY  
FOR RENEWED CONVECTION DAYTIME CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS WEST  
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DELTA REGION. ADJUSTED THE  
HIGHEST POP/WEATHER TOWARD THIS AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE  
QUITE LIMITED, FOCUSED TOWARD FAVORED MESOSCALE/MICROSCALE  
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENTS AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND  
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. AM A LITTLE TROUBLED BY THE AGGRESSIVE 06Z  
HRRRV4 MODEL INTERACTION WITH CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN MO MCS  
SCENARIO AND MCS REMNANTS OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA EARLY  
THURSDAY. THIS MAY BEAR WATCHING FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  
 
A SERIES OF INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES WILL ARC DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE  
OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SMALL, INTERMITTENT, AND MAINLY  
DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON  
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS  
RIDGE AND CAPPING, ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION, SHOULD  
MARKEDLY DROP ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA  
ON SATURDAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE  
EASTERN HALF OF OUR COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO JUST INCLUDED  
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS. LOSS OF HEATING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL  
PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, AND THE FRONT SHOULD SINK JUST  
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY SUNDAY TO KEEP US DRY.  
 
MODELS DO NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUS RUNS,  
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE APPROACHING REMNANTS OF THE GULF TROPICAL  
SYSTEM CRISTOBAL, SO WE WILL NOT SEE THE DROP IN DEW POINTS OVER THE  
WEEKEND AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, AND THIS WILL BE OUR LEAST  
HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
 
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING AND TRACK OF  
THE REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY, CENTERING IT OVER  
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY, GFS TAKES IT INTO EASTERN  
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES IT RIGHT UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THESE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS MAKE  
IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS BLENDS CONTINUE  
INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST  
TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A  
GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.  
 
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 89 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE, AND WITH DEW  
POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES, HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO  
POSSIBLY UPPER 90S. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE  
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY, BUT AS MENTIONED EARLIER, IT WILL BE A  
LITTLE LESS HUMID. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. ADDED A  
SECONDARY ISOLATED CU FIELD FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THERE A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
STORMS IN THE MVN AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON (AFTER 21Z), THEN AROUND  
EVV/OWB BY EARLY EVENING (AFTER 0Z THURSDAY). CONFIDENCE, AGAIN,  
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT  
INCLUDED LOWER BKN050 DECKS TO HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL AT ALL  
TERMINALS EXCEPT KPAH, WHICH MAY STAY DRY THROUGH 6Z THURSDAY.  
 
LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 7-14 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE  
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AT KEVV AND KOWB  
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM...RST  
AVIATION...DWS  
 
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