435  
FGUS73 KPAH 231620  
ESFPAH  
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-  
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-  
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-  
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-301200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1117 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2023  
   
..BRIEF UPDATE TO SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
 
 
THE SPRING FLOOD SEASON REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AVERAGE OR NORMAL  
RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME  
MODERATE FLOODING DEPENDING ON ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THAT IMPACT THE  
AREA. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER WITH AN INCREASED SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.  
WHETHER OR NOT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FLOODS IN OUR REGION DEPENDS ON  
HOW AND WHEN THE SNOW MELTS AND IF THERE ARE ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS  
THAT MAY COMPOUND POTENTIAL FLOODING. SEASONAL OUTLOOKS THROUGH MAY  
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 03/28/2023 - 06/26/2023  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 37 25 22 17 <5 <5  
PARADISE 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 76 54 31 21 <5 <5  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 79 61 48 37 27 19  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 29 17 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GOLCONDA 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 50 38 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HENDERSON 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 76 52 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MOUNT VERNON 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 75 57 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NEWBURGH DAM 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 81 71 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OWENSBORO 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 38 27 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SHAWNEETOWN 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 83 73 38 30 <5 <5  
J.T. MYERS DAM 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 81 64 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 81 57 64 40 32 12  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 42 42 32 34 17 22  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 89 78 40 25 <5 <5  
:BLACK RIVER  
POPLAR BLUFF 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 31 29 18 9 12 6  
:CURRENT RIVER  
DONIPHAN 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 16 24 9 10 6 7  
VAN BUREN 20.0 23.0 27.0 : 9 9 7 7 <5 <5  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
CAPE GIRARDEAU 32.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 82 <5 61 <5 38  
NEW MADRID 34.0 40.0 44.0 : <5 62 <5 21 <5 <5  
THEBES 33.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 76 <5 53 <5 31  
:OHIO RIVER  
CAIRO 40.0 47.0 53.0 : <5 86 <5 62 <5 33  
OLMSTED LOCK AND 36.0 42.0 47.0 : <5 82 <5 61 <5 39  
PADUCAH 39.0 43.0 52.0 : <5 63 <5 51 <5 <5  
SMITHLAND DAM 40.0 48.0 50.0 : <5 55 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER  
FISK 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 15 24 13 22 7 18  
PATTERSON 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 46 48 12 13 6 5  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 20.0 27.0 34.0 : >95 43 15 11 <5 <5  
MURPHYSBORO 22.0 28.0 36.0 : >95 69 49 47 15 13  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/28/2023 - 06/26/2023  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 15.9 16.3 17.2 20.8 25.2 29.0 30.5  
PARADISE 375.4 376.7 380.2 383.4 386.8 389.0 391.2  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 19.4 22.9 28.3 31.7 35.2 36.1 36.9  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 28.5 32.5 36.7 39.8 42.4 43.1 43.3  
GOLCONDA 33.6 34.7 37.7 40.0 44.9 47.1 48.6  
HENDERSON 24.2 27.9 31.9 35.2 37.9 38.6 38.8  
MOUNT VERNON 28.4 31.3 35.1 38.7 41.5 42.8 43.1  
NEWBURGH DAM 30.7 35.5 39.5 42.9 44.4 45.1 45.3  
OWENSBORO 28.0 31.7 35.4 38.8 41.3 42.3 42.7  
SHAWNEETOWN 27.9 30.1 36.2 40.1 46.1 47.8 48.9  
J.T. MYERS DAM 31.0 33.6 39.0 41.9 46.3 48.0 48.9  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 14.8 16.6 19.0 21.2 23.7 24.7 25.4  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 8.9 9.3 10.9 13.6 18.3 21.6 23.4  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 12.9 14.9 17.1 19.4 20.9 21.9 22.2  
:BLACK RIVER  
POPLAR BLUFF 9.0 9.0 9.7 13.9 16.7 21.5 23.0  
:CURRENT RIVER  
DONIPHAN 1.9 1.9 2.6 4.7 6.5 17.3 22.6  
VAN BUREN 4.4 4.4 5.4 7.1 8.7 19.1 24.9  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
CAPE GIRARDEAU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
NEW MADRID 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
THEBES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
:OHIO RIVER  
CAIRO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
OLMSTED LOCK AND 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
PADUCAH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
SMITHLAND DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER  
FISK 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.4 11.1 24.5 27.5  
PATTERSON 7.3 7.4 11.1 15.3 19.4 25.7 33.1  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.2 23.1 29.5 33.2  
MURPHYSBORO 26.3 26.4 26.5 27.5 33.7 43.4 44.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/28/2023 - 06/26/2023  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 11.8 11.8 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0  
PARADISE 367.0 366.6 364.9 364.6 364.3 364.2 364.1  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 8.8 4.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 15.9 15.4 14.6 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.5  
GOLCONDA 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5  
HENDERSON 13.9 13.5 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.1 12.1  
MOUNT VERNON 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3  
NEWBURGH DAM 16.5 15.8 14.7 14.1 13.6 13.2 13.1  
OWENSBORO 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0  
SHAWNEETOWN 17.9 17.5 16.6 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.6  
J.T. MYERS DAM 18.4 17.7 15.7 14.6 13.9 12.9 12.8  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 8.3 7.3 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.8 3.7  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 6.8 5.2 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.8  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 10.5 10.3 8.7 7.2 6.1 5.8 5.7  
MURPHYSBORO 14.1 11.7 10.5 9.0 5.9 5.2 4.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PAH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
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