435
FGUS73 KPAH 231620
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-301200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1117 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2023
..BRIEF UPDATE TO SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
THE SPRING FLOOD SEASON REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AVERAGE OR NORMAL
RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
MODERATE FLOODING DEPENDING ON ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THAT IMPACT THE
AREA. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH AN INCREASED SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.
WHETHER OR NOT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FLOODS IN OUR REGION DEPENDS ON
HOW AND WHEN THE SNOW MELTS AND IF THERE ARE ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS
THAT MAY COMPOUND POTENTIAL FLOODING. SEASONAL OUTLOOKS THROUGH MAY
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/28/2023 - 06/26/2023
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 37 25 22 17 <5 <5
PARADISE 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 76 54 31 21 <5 <5
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 79 61 48 37 27 19
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 29 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
GOLCONDA 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 50 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENDERSON 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 76 52 <5 <5 <5 <5
MOUNT VERNON 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 75 57 <5 <5 <5 <5
NEWBURGH DAM 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 81 71 <5 <5 <5 <5
OWENSBORO 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 38 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHAWNEETOWN 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 83 73 38 30 <5 <5
J.T. MYERS DAM 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 81 64 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 81 57 64 40 32 12
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 42 42 32 34 17 22
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 89 78 40 25 <5 <5
:BLACK RIVER
POPLAR BLUFF 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 31 29 18 9 12 6
:CURRENT RIVER
DONIPHAN 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 16 24 9 10 6 7
VAN BUREN 20.0 23.0 27.0 : 9 9 7 7 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU 32.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 82 <5 61 <5 38
NEW MADRID 34.0 40.0 44.0 : <5 62 <5 21 <5 <5
THEBES 33.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 76 <5 53 <5 31
:OHIO RIVER
CAIRO 40.0 47.0 53.0 : <5 86 <5 62 <5 33
OLMSTED LOCK AND 36.0 42.0 47.0 : <5 82 <5 61 <5 39
PADUCAH 39.0 43.0 52.0 : <5 63 <5 51 <5 <5
SMITHLAND DAM 40.0 48.0 50.0 : <5 55 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FISK 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 15 24 13 22 7 18
PATTERSON 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 46 48 12 13 6 5
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 20.0 27.0 34.0 : >95 43 15 11 <5 <5
MURPHYSBORO 22.0 28.0 36.0 : >95 69 49 47 15 13
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/28/2023 - 06/26/2023
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN 15.9 16.3 17.2 20.8 25.2 29.0 30.5
PARADISE 375.4 376.7 380.2 383.4 386.8 389.0 391.2
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 19.4 22.9 28.3 31.7 35.2 36.1 36.9
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE 28.5 32.5 36.7 39.8 42.4 43.1 43.3
GOLCONDA 33.6 34.7 37.7 40.0 44.9 47.1 48.6
HENDERSON 24.2 27.9 31.9 35.2 37.9 38.6 38.8
MOUNT VERNON 28.4 31.3 35.1 38.7 41.5 42.8 43.1
NEWBURGH DAM 30.7 35.5 39.5 42.9 44.4 45.1 45.3
OWENSBORO 28.0 31.7 35.4 38.8 41.3 42.3 42.7
SHAWNEETOWN 27.9 30.1 36.2 40.1 46.1 47.8 48.9
J.T. MYERS DAM 31.0 33.6 39.0 41.9 46.3 48.0 48.9
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 14.8 16.6 19.0 21.2 23.7 24.7 25.4
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 8.9 9.3 10.9 13.6 18.3 21.6 23.4
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 12.9 14.9 17.1 19.4 20.9 21.9 22.2
:BLACK RIVER
POPLAR BLUFF 9.0 9.0 9.7 13.9 16.7 21.5 23.0
:CURRENT RIVER
DONIPHAN 1.9 1.9 2.6 4.7 6.5 17.3 22.6
VAN BUREN 4.4 4.4 5.4 7.1 8.7 19.1 24.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NEW MADRID 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
THEBES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:OHIO RIVER
CAIRO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
OLMSTED LOCK AND 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PADUCAH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SMITHLAND DAM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FISK 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.4 11.1 24.5 27.5
PATTERSON 7.3 7.4 11.1 15.3 19.4 25.7 33.1
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.2 23.1 29.5 33.2
MURPHYSBORO 26.3 26.4 26.5 27.5 33.7 43.4 44.3
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/28/2023 - 06/26/2023
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN 11.8 11.8 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0
PARADISE 367.0 366.6 364.9 364.6 364.3 364.2 364.1
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 8.8 4.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE 15.9 15.4 14.6 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.5
GOLCONDA 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5
HENDERSON 13.9 13.5 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.1 12.1
MOUNT VERNON 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3
NEWBURGH DAM 16.5 15.8 14.7 14.1 13.6 13.2 13.1
OWENSBORO 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
SHAWNEETOWN 17.9 17.5 16.6 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.6
J.T. MYERS DAM 18.4 17.7 15.7 14.6 13.9 12.9 12.8
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 8.3 7.3 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.8 3.7
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 6.8 5.2 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.8
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 10.5 10.3 8.7 7.2 6.1 5.8 5.7
MURPHYSBORO 14.1 11.7 10.5 9.0 5.9 5.2 4.0
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PAH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
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