878  
FNUS73 KJKL 061919  
FWSJKL  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CLIMAX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY  
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 EDT ON OCTOBER 06.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A PROLONGED  
PERIOD OF DAMP WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE  
VARIABLE, DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAPPEN  
TO HIT, BUT TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR TWO INCHES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY  
LATE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3.  
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT FORECAST START...MAX 77.  
RH..................81 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 69 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............65.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 3 MPH AT FORECAST  
START...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................14.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT FORECAST START...MAX  
3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........84 84 84  
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 70  
LAL.............3 3 3  
TEMP............71 73 74  
DEWPOINT........65 65 65  
RH..............81 76 74  
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6  
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW  
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 10 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 10 7  
LVORI...........3 4 3  
ADI.............18 13 9  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF  
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100, THEN 2 UNTIL 2300, THEN 1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............63 DECREASING TO 58 LATE AT NIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTH 5  
TO 6 MPH LATE AT NIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH  
LATE AT NIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 2 TO  
7 MPH LATE.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................4.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM  
SKY (%).........86 93 97  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 80 90  
LAL.............3 2 1  
TEMP............74 69 64  
DEWPOINT........65 65 62  
RH..............74 87 93  
20 FT WIND......SW 4G5 SW 3G4 NW 3G4  
RIDGETOP WIND...SW 5 SW 5 SW 5  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 S 7 N 2  
LVORI...........3 6 8  
ADI.............6 3 1  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 58.  
RH..................MIN 75 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............54 DECREASING TO 51 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................11 INCREASING TO 19 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........98 99 96  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).100 100 60  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............56 55 57  
DEWPOINT........56 53 52  
RH..............100 93 83  
20 FT WIND......N 6G7 N 7G10 NE 6G10  
RIDGETOP WIND...N 10 N 10 NE 10  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 9 NE 14 N 13  
LVORI...........9 5 3  
ADI.............6 15 20  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...HAL  
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT GIRON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1916732.0/JKL  
.DELDT 10/06/19  
.EMAIL KYKICC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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