083
FNUS73 KJKL 011010 AAB
FWSJKL
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK UNIT 4 RX...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG RIDGE HAS SET UP TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH DUE TO THAT RIDGE. INSTEAD, KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF
IN A STRONG SW FLOW PATTERN WELL INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND,
AND IN THE UNSTABLE SECTOR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION FOR MIN RH LEVELS TO
STAY GENERALLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN OUR POSITION IN THE WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE
SECTOR OF THESE SYSTEMS, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN MIXING/HEATING ARE
AT THEIR BEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE ONGOING RIDGING ALOFT, THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED, OR SEVERE. THE RIDGE
THEN BEGINS BREAKING DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT
AND BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............53 INCREASING TO 58 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...76.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 16
TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........POOR (600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (84000
KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 EARLY INCREASING TO 61 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38 59 64 69 72 77 82 75 70 74 70 56
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 30 40 40 50 40 50 70 70 60 40
TEMP............59 56 61 64 67 69 71 73 75 76 76 74
DEWPOINT........54 52 58 59 60 60 60 59 58 58 57 57
RH..............83 86 90 84 78 73 68 62 55 54 52 55
APARNT TMP (F)..59 56 61 64 67 69 71 73 75 76 76 74
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 15 15 16 17 16 16 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 7 12 16 20 20 18 17 18 20 20
LVORI...........5 5 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............2 6 5 9 32 45 48 50 48 53 59 61
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 8 30 48 54 61 61 70 84 90
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............58.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...75.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6
TO 7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (59600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (900
KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................47 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 3 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........54 53 49 46 47 46 38 26 16 14 14 13
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............75 73 71 68 67 64 63 62 60 61 60 59
DEWPOINT........58 58 58 58 58 58 59 58 58 58 58 58
RH..............55 59 63 70 73 81 87 87 93 90 93 96
APARNT TMP (F)..75 73 71 68 67 64 63 62 60 61 60 59
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S SW S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 10 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW S S SW S S S S S S S
RIDGE WIND SPD..7 6 5 3 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 13 10 10 12 12 10 8 7 6 6 6
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 8
ADI.............47 9 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..60 20 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............57.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...81.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO
26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........POOR (500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(131800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 EARLY INCREASING TO 170 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........14 16 10 8 6 11 16 17 18 23 28 32
WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ ISO
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30
TEMP............59 60 62 66 70 74 77 79 80 81 81 82
DEWPOINT........58 57 58 58 59 59 58 57 57 56 56 55
RH..............96 90 87 75 68 59 52 47 45 42 42 40
APARNT TMP (F)..59 60 62 66 70 74 77 79 80 81 81 81
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 14 16 18 20 18 18 20 20 20
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
RIDGE WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.9 4.7 6.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 12 20 25 26 25 23 23 22 21
LVORI...........8 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............2 4 6 17 72 119 143 169 170 107 104 97
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 11 50 86 106 132 137 135 132 123
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
FORECASTER...GREIF
REQUESTED BY...CHAD CORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608395.2/JKL
.DELDT 04/01/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHAD.CORE@USDA.GOV
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