139  
FNUS73 KJKL 190046  
FWSJKL  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SIZEMORE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY  
846 PM EDT THU APR 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2100 EDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD. WITH NO INVERSION LIKELY TO SETUP, ESPECIALLY ON THE  
RIDGES, MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED.  
HOWEVER, A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1 AND 6  
AM, PRODUCING A SOAKING RAIN FOR THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE  
BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN FOR TOMORROW DURING THE DAY, BUT IT DOES  
APPEAR TO BE A DECENT CHANCE ON SEEING ADDITIONAL RAIN AT SOME  
POINT DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SITE  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1 AM.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........72 AT FORECAST START...MIN 60.  
RH..................50 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MAX 84 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............52.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT FORECAST  
START...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 24 MPH  
LATE.  
VENTILATION RATE....POOR /3900 KNOT-FT/ AT FORECAST START.  
MIN...POOR /3900 KNOT-FT/.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................15 INCREASING TO 21 LATE.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT FORECAST START...MAX  
3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........59 65 72 77 82 87 91 94 97  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 40 90 90 90 90  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............71 69 67 66 65 62 60 60 60  
DEWPOINT........53 53 53 54 55 55 55 55 55  
RH..............53 57 61 65 70 77 80 80 80  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12  
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 14 17 21 23 24 23 22  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............10 11 12 15 19 21 22 21 20  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10004 4 5 7 12 15 15 14 14  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62.  
RH..................MIN 71 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............55.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST AROUND 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH BECOMING EAST 3 TO 9 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
VENTILATION RATE....POOR TO FAIR (5500-13900 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................18 DECREASING TO 12 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........95 90 93 94 93 93  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 60 60 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............63 61 61 60 59 59  
DEWPOINT........56 56 57 57 57 54  
RH..............78 84 87 90 93 83  
20 FT WIND......S 8 S 7 S 7 SW 6 SW 6 W 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 14 13 10 10  
RIDGETOP WIND...S 10 S 10 S 10 SW 10 SW 10 W 10  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 SW 15 S 14 SE 9 S 3 E 7  
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 6 4  
ADI.............18 19 15 11 7 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100013 13 8 7 7 11  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY LATE.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............50 DECREASING TO 40.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 23 MPH  
LATE.  
VENTILATION RATE....POOR TO GOOD (12600-32400 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................13 INCREASING TO 24 LATE.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........95 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 70 70 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............58 54 48 45  
DEWPOINT........52 49 45 41  
RH..............80 83 89 86  
20 FT WIND......W 6G10 W 6G11 SW 6G13 SW 6G13  
RIDGETOP WIND...W 10 W 10 SW 10 SW 10  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 S 17 SW 23 S 21  
LVORI...........3 4 4 4  
ADI.............17 15 26 23  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/100014 18 30 32  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 44.  
RH..................MIN 74 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............38.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.  
RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST AROUND 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 22 MPH.  
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR TO GOOD (26900-49600 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................21 INCREASING TO 47.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........99 98 97  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............42 40 44  
DEWPOINT........39 38 37  
RH..............89 92 76  
20 FT WIND......SW 6G14 SW 6G13 SW 7G14  
RIDGETOP WIND...SW 10 SW 10 SW 10  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 18 SW 17 SW 21  
LVORI...........4 4 3  
ADI.............21 39 47  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/100030 41 49  
 

 
FORECASTER...KAS  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS OWENS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1906557.0/JKL  
.DELDT 04/18/19  
.EMAIL CHRISOWENS@FS.FED.US  
 
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