993
FNUS73 KJKL 311800
FWSJKL
SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCKCASTLE RIVER WMA BOLTHOUSE UNIT 1 & 2...KDF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MARCH 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
GUSTY, SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING AT THE BURN SITE. EXPECT
WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DISSIPATING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL CREATE GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE FIRE, WITH SMOKE EXPECTED TO
TRAVEL TO THE NORTHEAST GIVEN THE SW FLOW. PASSING DISTURBANCES
WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO YIELD DIURNAL UPTICKS IN
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL MOVE IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF SW FLOW, MIN RH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
40 AND 45% BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN
SITE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........79 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............57.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...81.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14
MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6300 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 29 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT /141700 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION
...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (156200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (132800
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................86 TO 97.
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........52 57 52 45
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10
TEMP............79 79 81 80
DEWPOINT........58 58 57 57
RH..............49 49 44 45
APARNT TMP (F)..79 79 81 80
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..15 16 15 14
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 24
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..15 16 15 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.9 6.2 6.3 5.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.28 29 29 26
LVORI...........1 1 1 1
ADI.............91 96 97 86
VRATE KT-FT/1K..142 156 159 133
VENTRATE CAT....VGD EXL EXL VGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............57.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...80.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
3 AM MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 10
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (91200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (3000
KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................64 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........42 39 36 36 37 29 41 49 48 48 65 71
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20
TEMP............80 79 75 73 71 69 67 65 63 63 63 63
DEWPOINT........57 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 57 57 58
RH..............45 45 52 55 59 63 68 73 78 81 81 84
APARNT TMP (F)..80 79 75 73 71 69 67 65 63 63 63 63
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S SW SW SW SW S S SW
20 FT WIND SPD..14 13 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.22 18 17 17 16 17 16 15 15 15 15 14
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S SW SW SW SW S S SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..14 14 12 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW S S SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 14 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 6
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5
ADI.............64 15 6 5 6 7 9 6 5 5 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..91 16 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 4 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......85-50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............60.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...83.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 18
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........POOR (3000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (58400
KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 59 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........78 80 75 73 71 68 72 67 62 58 53 51
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 30 30 30 30 40 50 50 50 50
TEMP............63 63 64 67 69 73 75 77 80 80 82 82
DEWPOINT........58 58 58 59 61 62 62 62 62 60 60 61
RH..............84 84 81 75 76 68 64 60 54 51 47 49
APARNT TMP (F)..63 63 64 67 69 73 75 77 81 81 82 83
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 15 16 17 18 17 17 17 17 16 16
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 9 13 16 18 18 16 15 15 16 16
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............4 8 7 16 37 41 59 58 56 59 47 46
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 6 11 26 41 48 53 52 58 63 61
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR GD GD
FORECASTER...JMW
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT SHEPHERD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608145.5/JKL
.DELDT 03/31/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHERC.SCOTT@KY.GOV,DWAYNE.ANDERSON@KY.GOV,TAYLOR.YORK@KY.GOV,SCOTT.SHEPHERD@KY.GOV,SAMANTHA.ROSE@KY.GOV
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