763
FXUS63 KJKL 200550
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2021
T AND TD OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO
STARTED UPDATES WITH LATEST MODEL INFO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CHANGES ARE INSIGNIFICANT.|
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021
AGAIN THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING SO HAVE
MAINLY JUST ADDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO THE T/TD GRIDS.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE AREA JUST A BIT
EAST FROM LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN BASICALLY A
PERSISTENT FORECAST WITH SIMILAR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DISTINCTIONS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY END UP A NOTCH HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT SPATIALLY
QUITE SIMILAR. CURRENTLY READINGS ARE RUNNING FROM THE LOW 60S ON
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS,
MEANWHILE, HAVE COME UP TO THE MID 40S ON THE HILLS AND THE LOW
50S IN THE VALLEYS - AMID LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THE FORECAST BEING
RIGHT ON TRACK HAVE SIMPLY INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
INTO THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021
ALOFT, SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSIT THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND JUST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT,
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL JUST BE
ENTERING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR OUR MOST
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TRANSIT EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT
BE LOW OR THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST FROM
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WEATHER REMAINS DRY
AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOMORROW, PUSHED
ALONG BY A RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
FLOW. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (PREDAWN THURSDAY) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE, A COUPLE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD.
AS THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO LATE THURSDAY EVENING, DURING WHICH TIME WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
COOLER AIR AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND IT. A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MUCH LARGER PARENT TROUGH ALOFT. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MEAGER COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM,
SO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ALL WE EXPECT AT THIS POINT.
AFTER THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN, WE SHOULD SEE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESS SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR A BIT, WITH DRY WEATHER ON TAP
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RAIN BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THAT THREE DAY PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON TAP. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT COMES IN
WILL LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S EACH DAY. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON TAP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK SHOULD
SEE WARMER NIGHT TIME PERIODS, WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2021
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT AT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST, PICKING UP TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
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