327
FXUS63 KJKL 202210
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
510 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THE HEAVY RAIN TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING, RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ON
AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS INCORPORATED MODIFIED VERSIONS OF THE CONSHORT AND
BLENDED MODEL DATA. THE LATEST OBS WERE ALSO USED TO ESTABLISH A
BASE LINE ON WHICH TO BASE THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT WE WILL STILL SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THAT, WE ANTICIPATE THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, DUMPING
ADDITIONAL RAIN ON THE AREA. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVERS,
CREEKS, AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND MAYBE EVEN THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST CURVES. A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORYS AND
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO HANDLE ONGOING HIGH WATER
ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN ON THURSDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL DEPICT THE IMPRESSIVE
DIGGING OF THE WESTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE THE ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS KENTUCKY
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE THE MID
LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA, AS WELL THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL GRIND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON SATURDAY WITH THE CMC AND GFS IN A STRONGER CLUSTER THAN THE
ECMWF THOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE SIMILAR. AS THIS WHOLE
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, ITS ENERGY AND LOWER HEIGHTS
WILL WASH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS, HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS
THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE
MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THE FEATURES FOR
THE LOWER 48 LOOK RATHER BENIGN IN THE LANGUISHING WEST TO EAST
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY
START TO ACT UP WITH SOME TROUGHING HEADING OUR WAY FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE ENERGY AND FALLING HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MORE ACTIVE PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
HAVE FAVORED THE BLEND WITH LITTLE NEED FOR LARGER SCALE
ADJUSTMENTS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SLOW MOVING CONCLUSION TO A VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT WEATHER
SYSTEM DROPS ITS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST - COMING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP
TO FOCUS A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE TARGETING THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY AND ITS HEAD WATERS LIKELY PROLONGING THE CURRENT RIVER
FLOOD SITUATION ON THE DOWNSTREAM POINTS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
IT SENDS THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SETTING UP A ZONE OF
POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION FOR THE JKL CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY WE ARE CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TAPPING THE DYNAMICS ALOFT -
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S POTENT COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THAT NIGHT AND
ENDS THE MAIN RAIN THREAT - HOPEFULLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POURS INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY HELPING TO
SETTLE THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WELCOMED RESPITE SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, A LIGHT PCPN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OR
SLIPS SOUTH ENOUGH TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
CONSIDERING THE WEATHER OF THIS PAST WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES - DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE SUPERBLEND
STARTING POINT EXCEPT TO ADD INTO MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE
POPS/QPF/WX DID FINE TUNE THE THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG WITH UPPING THE QPF FOR FRIDAY A TAD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY AND
DURATION OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AIRPORTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF ANY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 6Z TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE. THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE FROM LOZ BETWEEN 5 AND 6Z. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE AMD NOT SKED FOR SME DUE TO MISSING OBS. THE
RAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE JKL AND SYM AREAS AROUND 5Z THIS EVENING,
AND SJS BETWEEN 8 AND 10Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN OVC TO BKN DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM 13Z ONWARD ON THURSDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
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