918  
FXUS63 KJKL 172226  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
626 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WATER OR FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- SEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF  
THE WEEK, WITH HEAT THEN BUILDING DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD EASTERN  
KENTUCKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE  
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONGER  
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THE REMAINDER  
OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALREADY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND  
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
ACTIVITY FURTHER DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT  
OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW IS RESULTING IN QUICKER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF  
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP A CONTINUOUS  
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH SHEAR (ABOUT 25 KTS) AND  
CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG) FOR THERE TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT  
UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED THIS EVENING.  
GIVEN ALL THIS, WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS  
EVENING.  
 
THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH LATE  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY  
DESTABILIZE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN MODEST  
HEATING, AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH  
INCREASING SHEAR OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT, PARTICULARLY FROM ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY THAT CAN  
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE  
LIMITING FACTOR WILL LIKELY BE INSTABILITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS  
LIKELY TO REMAIN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION,  
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE LONG, SKINNY  
CAPE PROFILES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD  
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE  
PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO  
BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION  
CONCERNING TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP. THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE  
IN SOUTHEAST KY WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATEST. MOST PRECIP WILL BE  
GONE BY NIGHT, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST  
WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS AS WE END THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE  
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE, AND UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN PARK ITSELF  
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH EARLY IN THE  
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING HEAT AND MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER. GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND AIR MASS MODIFICATION COULD  
BE ENOUGH TO FUEL A BIT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING  
FREQUENT SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL  
GENERALLY BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND FROM 00Z TO 06Z THIS EVENING.  
ANY PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS  
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN  
THE RIVER VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-  
058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CMC  
LONG TERM...HAL  
AVIATION...CMC  
 
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