166
FXUS63 KJKL 052028
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
428 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA, WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING THE AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MCS THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS
MORNING SPARKING CONVECTION HAS SINCE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS CLEARING PRETTY SOON AFTER
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, REACHING UP TO 90 IN
ISOLATED SPOTS AS OF 3PM. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW MORE DEGREES BY PEAK HEATING, REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAMS SHOW PRETTY MODERATE INSTABILITY UPWARDS OF
1500-2500 J/KG (MLCAPE), HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. WITH
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
OH PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH THE RISK IS LOW. THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. SPC
DID CONTINUE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF THE ISOLATED RISK.
WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT, DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
FOR SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL,
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS, BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS AND RADAR INDICATES THE
MORNING CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE SITES. SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z-03Z, HOWEVER CONTINUED
THE PROB30 GROUPS AS COVERAGE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. LATER
TONIGHT AFTER ~06Z, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...NWS
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