448
FXUS63 KJKL 282334
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- AFTER LOW CHANCES (0 TO 20%) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY, THERE IS GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTERY MIX IN MORE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME, ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK EVENING DROP IN VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WHICH IS UNDERWAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DRY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION OF EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOCALLY, THE REGION REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH. THE MISSOURI SURFACE WAVE, SUPPORTED BY THE LOCAL ZONE
OF BAROCLINICITY, IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED POP CHANCES TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE SATURDAY MODEL SUITES
MAINTAIN ISOLATED POP, CAMS REMAIN MORE BULLISH, KEEPING THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. CONSEQUENTLY, A
BLEND OF CAMS AND NBM WAS UTILIZED FOR THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER, ENSURING ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
REMAINS IN LIQUID FORM.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA, PROVIDING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK RAPIDLY TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH,
WITH POP INCREASING SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A
WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
PROFILES, LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW PROBABILITIES RATHER THAN A RAIN-
SNOW MIX, PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. VERY ISOLATED, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, TRANSITIONING ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION BACK TO
RAIN.
THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, PUNCTUATED BY TWO
DISTURBANCES BRINGING POP CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START AT 12Z MONDAY, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH BACK THROUGH THE STATE AS A WARM FRONT.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS OF 12Z,
COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY COULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE BEING
SNOW. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING, AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM IN GENERAL, THIS COLD AIR
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AIRMASS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL SNOW TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT,
GENERALLY A TRACE TO A DUSTING (0.2 INCHES). AND AS SNOW CHANGES
TO RAIN, ANY SNOW THAT DID ACCUMULATE WILL QUICKLY MELT -
HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE CWA, IT DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE IN A HURRY TO MOVE. IN FACT, WPC ANALYZES THE BOUNDARY
PERSISTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. IT'S NOT UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK (DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT
SECTION), BRINGING WITH IT A STRONGER COLD FRONT, THAT THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EXIT NORTHEAST. WITH KENTUCKY
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EACH DAY, WITH MID-70S EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY! IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION, WHICH COULD MEAN
SOME CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY WILL HOVER
EACH DAY, AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WELL. NOTE THAT THE NBM IS AVERAGING
THESE DIFFERENCES, KEEPING SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LET'S BREAK IT DOWN BY MODEL...
THE GFS SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD, MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IF THIS GFS
SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, THE INITIAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF KENTUCKY AFTER MONDAY, KEEPING THE CWA DRY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN POPS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS THEN
SHOWS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON IT'S HEELS, KEEPING PRECIP
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS MUCH DIFFERENT. THE MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP PRECIP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND JKL CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP, BUT SOME
12 TO 18 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS - AND ALSO A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KY BY 18Z THURSDAY, NOT REALLY REACHING EASTERN KY UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY, AT
WHICH POINT A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SW, GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT MAY BE NOTED THAT THIS SAME RIDGE IS
PRESENT IN THE GFS MODEL AS WELL, BUT THE GFS HAS IT DISPLACED MUCH
FARTHER SE AND THEREFORE DOES NOT IMPACT KY, ALLOWING FOR THAT NEXT
SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INSTEAD.
SINCE THE NBM IS TRYING TO BLEND THE TWO OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS, IT'S
RESULTING IN MORE PROLONGED AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED. INTERESTINGLY, IT
IS ALSO FAVORING THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES (GFS SOLUTION) FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS NOT AGREED UPON BY THE ECMWF, SO EXPECT THESE
HIGHER POPS TO START DECREASING WITH THE NEXT RUNS OF THE NBM - AT
LEAST UNTIL MODELS CAN COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INCREASING AND LOWERING CIGS IS ANTICIPATED AS A SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO LOW-END
VFR/HIGH END MVFR AFTER 12Z BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR
BY 17Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT WAS LACKING; THEREFORE, POP CHANCES WERE OMITTED FROM
ALL TAF SITES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT WILL PICK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...VORST
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