112
FXUS63 KJKL 061150 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AS A SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THE HEAT WAVE BREAKS EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONGSIDE DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER BLAND PRESSURE PATTERN OVER
KENTUCKY WITH A STALLED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HOLDING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY HELPED TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED CONVECTION RIGHT UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE JKL CWA WITH
SOME FRINGE CELLS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, AHEAD OF INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST, VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD -
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT 5H TROUGHING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY ANCHORED BY A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
NEAR SGF THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN HARDLY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY,
THOUGH, WITH MOST MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND LOWER HEIGHTS STAYING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE JKL CWA. IN FACT, BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THE CORE
OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ONLY DRIFTED EAST BY ABOUT 200 MILES TO
NEAR MEM - SPARING EASTERN KENTUCKY MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE
STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT APPLIED FOR
MINOR TERRAIN DETAILS IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT SCENARIOS WERE
INCLUDED FROM THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE - BUT SMOOTHED AND FITTED
TO A REASONABLE DIURNAL SIGNAL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOT DOMINANT BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WE WILL BE WARM AND HUMID BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY - HOTTEST FOR PLACES THAT MISS OUT ON ANY CONVECTION. THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP THE
STORMS MAINLY IN THE GARDEN VARIETY CATEGORY - NOT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER THE MODERATELY HIGH PWS AND SLOW STORM
MOTION MAKE LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN - PARTICULAR FOR PLACES
THAT SEE TRAINING CELLS. NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS IN THIS PATTERN
WILL BE SIMILAR WITH LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. IN ADDITION, THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TIMES OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
TERRAIN EFFECTS ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO TWEAK THE
NBM TEMPS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MINOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS
TONIGHT AND TO ADD MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS DETAILS (SMOOTHED
OUT) INTO THE POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD IN JUST A TOUCH OF TERRAIN
DETAILS EACH NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG. NEARBY
TROUGHING ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
PERIOD - WITH HIGHEST POPS NOTED FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS
IS WHEN THE CORE OF ANY MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD DROPPING SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND ENHANCING THE POPS SYNOPTICALLY.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE
AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES START OUT FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS, BUT AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE, THIS BREAKS DOWN WITH TIME. FORTUNATELY, A
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL ROLL ON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY,
ALTHOUGH WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF DAILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION.
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH, IN THE
VICINITY OF ARKANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS HAD THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS, WITH THE GFS MORE RECENTLY LATCHING ONTO IT. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. POPS WILL
GENERALLY PEAK ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
WEAKEN MID-WEEK, POPS WILL LESSEN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A GENERAL
MINIMUM FORECAST BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS TROUGHING REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A MORE DEFINED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COMMONWEALTH. MODELS SHOW MORE DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES, BUT EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY. SOME HIGHER EFFICIENT RAINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE DOES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING
MORE DECISIVELY WITH TIME PER THE LREF CLIMATOLOGICAL PWATS. AS
SUCH, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGING CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH WEAK,
REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT SOME VALLEY FOG HAS CREPT INTO THE SYM,
IOB, AND SME TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD ALL CLEAR OUT BY 13Z THEN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. LATER, FOLLOWING THE STORM THREAT WE
MAY SEE LOWERING CIGS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA
AFTER 06Z. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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