327  
FXUS63 KJKL 202210  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
510 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN  
THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED THE HEAVY RAIN TO COME TO AN END THIS  
EVENING, RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ON  
AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST  
FORECAST HAS INCORPORATED MODIFIED VERSIONS OF THE CONSHORT AND  
BLENDED MODEL DATA. THE LATEST OBS WERE ALSO USED TO ESTABLISH A  
BASE LINE ON WHICH TO BASE THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST  
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS SUGGEST  
THAT THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN  
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT WE WILL STILL SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF  
RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, BUT THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  
BEHIND THAT, WE ANTICIPATE THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, DUMPING  
ADDITIONAL RAIN ON THE AREA. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE  
EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIVERS,  
CREEKS, AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND MAYBE EVEN THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK BASED  
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST CURVES. A NUMBER OF FLOOD ADVISORYS AND  
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO HANDLE ONGOING HIGH WATER  
ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE  
RAIN ON THURSDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE  
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL DEPICT THE IMPRESSIVE  
DIGGING OF THE WESTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON  
FRIDAY WHILE THE ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH. SOUTHWEST  
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS KENTUCKY  
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE THE MID  
LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA, AS WELL THROUGH THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL GRIND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ON SATURDAY WITH THE CMC AND GFS IN A STRONGER CLUSTER THAN THE  
ECMWF THOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE SIMILAR. AS THIS WHOLE  
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, ITS ENERGY AND LOWER HEIGHTS  
WILL WASH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS, HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS  
THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE  
MODEL SPREAD DOES INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THE FEATURES FOR  
THE LOWER 48 LOOK RATHER BENIGN IN THE LANGUISHING WEST TO EAST  
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY  
START TO ACT UP WITH SOME TROUGHING HEADING OUR WAY FOR NEXT  
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE ENERGY AND FALLING HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE MODEL  
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MORE ACTIVE PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST  
HAVE FAVORED THE BLEND WITH LITTLE NEED FOR LARGER SCALE  
ADJUSTMENTS.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SLOW MOVING CONCLUSION TO A VERY  
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT WEATHER  
SYSTEM DROPS ITS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE LONG  
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST - COMING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN  
KENTUCKY AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP  
TO FOCUS A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE TARGETING THE CUMBERLAND  
VALLEY AND ITS HEAD WATERS LIKELY PROLONGING THE CURRENT RIVER  
FLOOD SITUATION ON THE DOWNSTREAM POINTS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN  
IT SENDS THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SETTING UP A ZONE OF  
POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION FOR THE JKL CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY WE ARE CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TAPPING THE DYNAMICS ALOFT -  
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING  
BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S POTENT COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THAT NIGHT AND  
ENDS THE MAIN RAIN THREAT - HOPEFULLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DRIER AND  
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POURS INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY HELPING TO  
SETTLE THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
THIS WELCOMED RESPITE SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE  
WORK WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  
HOWEVER, A LIGHT PCPN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A  
WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OR  
SLIPS SOUTH ENOUGH TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS  
CONSIDERING THE WEATHER OF THIS PAST WEEK.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES - DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE SUPERBLEND  
STARTING POINT EXCEPT TO ADD INTO MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY  
DIFFERENCE TO THE LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE  
POPS/QPF/WX DID FINE TUNE THE THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING ALONG WITH UPPING THE QPF FOR FRIDAY A TAD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE  
TAF SITES WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY AND  
DURATION OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AIRPORTS  
AND THE PRESENCE OF ANY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST  
THROUGH BETWEEN 4 AND 6Z TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY  
IMPROVE. THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE FROM LOZ BETWEEN 5 AND 6Z. WE  
WILL CONTINUE TO USE AMD NOT SKED FOR SME DUE TO MISSING OBS. THE  
RAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE JKL AND SYM AREAS AROUND 5Z THIS EVENING,  
AND SJS BETWEEN 8 AND 10Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT  
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL  
REMAIN OVC TO BKN DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE  
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM 13Z ONWARD ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-  
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...GREIF  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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