842
FXUS63 KJKL 030302
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS
REMAINS IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- A SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM KEEPS DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS MOST
ARES. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST,
BUT OVERALL THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE, BUT DID OPT TO ALIGN FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AT 20Z, SATELLITE SHOWED A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NEARBY CLOSED LOW, LOCATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
ROUNDS OF OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
THE BIG SANDY BASIN HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING STRONGER
STORMS. WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, DCAPE OF 800-1000 J/KG AND
30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK,
GIVING BETWEEN A 5% AND 14% CHANCE OF STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 58 MPH WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT. GIVEN THAT ANY
STORMS WOULD BE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, TORRENTIAL RAIN
LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BIG
SANDY BASIN. A MARGINAL ERO IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA
BY THE WPC.
THIS EVENING, CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE FOG FORMATION. WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED, THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN SMALL, AND
TEMPERATURES WON'T HAVE TO COOL AS MUCH TO REACH THEM. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL MIXING
EXPECTED, A HYBRID-TYPE FOG SETUP IS FAVORED. WHERE THERE IS
CLEARING HEADING INTO THE EVENING, VALLEYS MAY FOG UP QUICKER.
WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN, RIDGE-TOPS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LOW-
STRATUS/FOG CONDITIONS BEFORE SAGGING DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS (TOP-
DOWN EFFECT). THAT SAID, MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED
WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH CHANCES
SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TAPERING OFF BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MAY NOT COVER AS
LARGE AN AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 616 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. FURTHER WEST, A
PERSISTENT RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO
INTENSIFY DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPIRALING OVER THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL SPREAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND, BOTH RIDGES WILL HAVE DAMPENED SOMEWHAT, WITH
MORE MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH RESIDUAL TROUGHING CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. IN GENERAL, THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUGUST.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS SUSTAINING A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER POPS FAVORED ACROSS OUR
TERRAIN, AND LESSER CHANCES NORTH, FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORCING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT CLOSER TO US ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LREF MEAN PWATS CONTINUE
TO RANGE IN THE 50-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF CLIMATOLOGY, BUT STORM
MOTIONS LOOK A BIT SLOWER THIS GO AROUND AT AROUND 10 KTS, SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DAMPEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME DEGREE OF
TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MIGRATION. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN KEEPING ANY SURFACE FRONTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, ALLOWING
FOR ONLY WEAK FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA. AS SUCH, EXPECT MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS IN PLACE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO CROSS KENTUCKY WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING TOWARD SUNSET.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WHETHER STRATUS OR DENSE FOG WILL
DOMINATE. FOR NOW, A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES, WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR/IFR (AND LOCALIZED LIFR) BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z MONDAY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
MONDAY, RETURNING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...DJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page