044
FXUS63 KJKL 191224 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
824 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
FRESHENED UP THE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING IN
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH AROUND A HALF INCH BEING
REPORTED AT SOME PLACES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TARGET THESE
SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING, AS AN 850 MB JET
ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT, A DEEP TROUGH IS SITUATED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DOWN ACROSS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS HAVE WORKED IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT DOWNSLOPED FLOW HAS DIMINISHED THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
HAS COME EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ON TAP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT EDGES EAST TODAY, WITH A CUTOFF LOW
EMERGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PIVOTS UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN WOBBLE ITS WAY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE DEEPER WITH THE LOW,
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER, AND THE GFS PARALLEL RUN IN THE
MIDDLE. GIVEN THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES, HAVE STUCK WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND HERE.
A SHOWERY 36 HOUR PERIOD IS AHEAD OF US, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS AREA AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GENS UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. MOS POPS HAVE COME IN WITH CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE
CONTINUOUSLY OCCURRING, THE OVERALL UPTICK SEEN HERE IS
REASONABLE, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WE HAVE AVAILABLE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH, TO THE LOW
70S IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN THE EAST TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE, WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S, WITH SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WITH AN AMPLIFIED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, SOME RESIDUAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THE
AFTERNOON, DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS TO
FOLLOW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE
QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S,
WITH VALLEYS COOLER THAN RIDGETOPS DUE TO CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL THEN BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERABLY WARMER, IN THE
UPPER 70S. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 80S, THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COMMONWEALTH. MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE THE ADDED POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING, BUT MOSTLY ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE RETURN FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WELL AS QPF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THEREFORE, HAVE FOLLOWED THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS FOR POPS CLOSELY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS. TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AS WELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 824 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RELENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KSYM TO KJKL TO K1A6,
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH THE MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS BRINGING TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOWERING CEILINGS FROM MIGRATING ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST,
INCLUDING KSJS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY,
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR EAST THROUGH
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING, BEFORE SUBSIDING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
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