408
FXUS63 KJKL 172000
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
WITH VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH RIVER
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES, HIGHS WILL JUMP A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THURSDAY COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S, WARMEST IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME OR TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THURSDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, ABSORBING A CUTOFF
LOW IN THE CENTRAL US INTO A LARGER TROUGHING PATTERN BY TUESDAY,
ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING'S MODEL SUITES. WHEN THIS TROUGH
EVENTUALLY GETS KICKED AND BEGINS MOVING, IT WOULD BE THE SOURCE
OF THE NEXT SET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE FORECAST IS WHETHER TO TRUST GUIDANCE
THAT THE PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY BE IN MOTION BY TUESDAY. OVERALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, BOTH WITH OTHER
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, ABOUT THE
PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPSTREAM PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY, THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN INDICATES A CONTINUED SLOWING BIAS.
SUNDAY, OR THE DAY 5 AND BEYOND TIMEFRAME, IS WHEN UNCERTAINTY
BECOMES READILY APPARENT REGARDING HOW/WHETHER THE UPSTREAM CUTOFF
LOW WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN MOVING. FOR THE LAST 4-5 DAYS, MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE EVOLUTION OF THE ONGOING
PATTERN AND THIS SHORTWAVE BEYOND FH96, PUSHING POP INCREASES IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY BACK BY ANOTHER DAY FOR EACH DAY THAT PASSES,
CONSISTENTLY KEEPING "RAIN CHANCES" AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST UNTIL GLOBAL MODELS REGAIN SKILL WITH THE UPSTREAM WAVES
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. THUS, NBM POPS HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED,
WITH CHANCES <20% THROUGH MONDAY AND ONLY INCREASING TO 20-30%
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, A LOCALIZED AFTERNOON
POP-UP SHOWER ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH AGREEABILITY BETWEEN MODELS IN EVOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY LENDS
ITSELF TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
BUT REMAIN IN THE 80S, WHICH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEYS, WHICH WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS AND MAY SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER DECREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING, AND MAY IMPACT KLOZ AND KSME WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page