419
FXUS63 KJKL 240052 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
752 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75.
- SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY ACCUMULATION RATES AND SUDDEN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
- MUCH COLDER AIR LINGERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT A MID-WEEK
WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOAKING RAINS TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED THIS
EVENING AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE MOISTURE FROM LAKE MI MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EAST OF I-75 WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER COLD AROUND -13C IN MILD COLD ADVECTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
AS WE HAVE MOVED PAST NIGHTFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
IN SOME AREAS HAS INCREASED AS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL.
THE IMPACT POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF TO FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SPS WAS
REISSUED FOR LOCATIONS NOT IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR BELL AND LESLIE COUNTIES EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM
EST FOR THIS EVENING ROUND OF ACTIVITY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT REMAINS VALID.
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING OF A DUSTING TO HALF OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE IN MORE
PERSISTENT AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ADVISORY.
IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES, A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOST
PERSISTENT AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND IN PARTICULAR ABOVE 2000
FEET ELEVATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MID-AFTERNOON AMIDST PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE BLIZZARD NOW BUFFETING NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS REMAIN COLD,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 20S BELOW 2,000 FEET AND IN
THE TEENS ABOVE. ACCUMULATIONS OF DRY, FLUFFY SNOW HAVE VARIED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST 30 HOURS, RANGING FROM A DUSTING IN THE
BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS TO ~1-3 INCHES FROM THE
POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD, WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH--RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST
BLIZZARD--IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE JKL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE, A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN IS APPROACHING THE JKL CWA ON CONTINUED WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CAA. BEYOND FORCED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND PERHAPS VERY WEAK LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY, LITTLE OTHER FORCING FOR ASCENT OR SNOW SHOWER
ORGANIZATION EXISTS. WHILE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD.
THE STATUS QUO REMAINS THIS EVENING AS THE THIN MOISTURE PLUME
ARRIVES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, SUPPORTING LAKE-ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CAA CEASES AND THE MOISTURE
PLUME DRIES UP (BY ~03Z WEST OF I-75 TO ~12Z ALONG THE KY-VA
BORDER). ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT, RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS (PERHAPS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PIKE, LETCHER, AND HARLAN
COUNTIES). DETERIORATION OF DRIVING CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON
UNTREATED ROADS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING
THIS EVENING. TUESDAY BRINGS IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA TAKES HOLD. A QUICK- MOVING BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, SUPPORTING A
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING FROM ALBERTA TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET RAMPS UP
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA IN SOME GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, ABUNDANT
DRY AIR BELOW 700 HPA LIKELY KEEPS MOST, IF NOT ALL, PRECIPITATION
AS VIRGA.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO
BECOME CONFINED EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING AND LARGELY TO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FOR
TUESDAY, MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. CLOUDS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH EARLY LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE THERMOMETERS
HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE AND FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH WILL START OUT POSITIONED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
GULF COAST STATES. UPSTREAM, A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH RIDGING SEEN JUST OFF OF THE WEST
COAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CRUISE SOUTHEAST, MOVING OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE INBOUND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. A TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE FLOW OCCURS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH BY THAT TIME, MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING SMALLER SCALE FEATURES INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY,
LENDING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S, WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST FROM 925-850 MB, REINFORCING CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL GEN UP ALONG A
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASS THROUGH THE TN/KY BORDER,
BRINGING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE UPPER 50S BORDERING
TENNESSEE.
REGARDING THE RAINFALL, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH MODEL WITH FORECAST PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH NOSING IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW, AND THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF THE HIGHER PWATS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE 12Z
THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF PROBABILITIES FOR
EXCEEDING AN INCH IN 24 HOURS REMAIN IN THE 50-60% RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY; HOWEVER, THESE HIGHER NUMBERS HAVE
GENERALLY SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING
2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM THE 00Z RUN, NOW
GENERALLY AROUND 10%. ADDITIONALLY, STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING IN THE
NORMAL RANGE FOR THE CUMBERLAND, AS THIS BASIN AVOIDED THE
EMBEDDED BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY LAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SUCH, SIGNIFICANT RIVER
RISES REMAIN LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A BIT FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. READINGS WILL THEN REBOUND INTO THE
60S FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT WITH POPS ONLY
PEAKING AT AROUND 40%. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH, TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR WAS REPORTED AT ISSUANCE TIME WITH SOME
IFR OCCURRING FOR A TIME IN THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
WERE WEST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KT AND SOME BRIEF GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WERE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE STRONGER
SNOW SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE MORE PREVALENT EAST OF
I-75 WITH THE MORE SUSTAINED AND PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE KY-VA BORDER. SOME BRIEF IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST 3 TO 5 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, MVFR AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EVEN NEAR THE VA
AND WV BORDERS BY THE 11Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME. VFR WOULD THEN PERSIST
IN ALL AREAS TO END THE PERIOD.
UNTIL THEN, KLOZ, KSYM AND KIOB MAY EXPERIENCE TIMES OF MVFR
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z, WHILE KSJS AND KJKL AND POINTS SOUTH TO THE
VA BORDER WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THE 06Z TO 09Z
WHERE MVFR LARGELY PREVAILS. SME SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THE
FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
AFFECT ALL BUT KSME DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD,
LONGEST FOR KJKL AND KSJS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
NEARER TO 5KT ON AVERAGE OR EVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
03Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME AND THEN REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH
AROUND 15Z, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 12KT WITH SOME GUSTS
INTO THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH TO END THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-
117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ088-
110-113-115-118>120.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP
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