424  
FXUS63 KJKL 090445 AAA  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS  
HUMIDITY INCREASES.  
 
- CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST  
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS  
AND A TOUCH UP TO THE POPS PER CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD  
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND  
SAFS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF  
THE STATE. THIS IS DOING LITTLE TO PREVENT THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF  
CONVECTION FROM DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. AS SUCH THE  
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE WAY OUT WITH SOME LINGERING CELLS  
STILL DOWN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE  
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT  
WINDS AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE  
STICKY LOW 70S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE  
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT ALSO TO FINE  
TUNE THE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST RADAR  
AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE  
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO,  
AND SAFS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
A SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY EARLY JULY AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY OVER  
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. THIS  
COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM VANCEBURG SOUTHWESTWARD TO  
LEXINGTON, THEN WESTWARD THROUGH LOUISVILLE. IN THE MODERATELY  
UNSTABLE (1,500-2,000 J/KG) ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE  
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AS OF 2:45 PM EDT, AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS  
BEGUN DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ANTICIPATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL  
CONTINUE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ON THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE JKL CWA. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE  
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY, A FEW OF THE STRONGEST  
CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY LOCATION  
AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP  
ISOLATED LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES.  
 
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-  
TERM PERIOD AS A 500 HPA TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO  
TO OVER THE OZARKS, DRIFTS EAST TO ROUGHLY JAMES BAY TO THE LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE  
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER EASTERN  
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. A SUBTLE SURFACE LOW-  
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE INCOMING 500 HPA TROUGH WILL THEN  
PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND DROP  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY BY THURSDAY MORNING.  
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE  
TROUGHING ALOFT AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL FAVOR SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON  
WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT  
TO MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LOCALIZED  
HIGH WATER ISSUES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL,  
PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE MOST PERSISTENT  
CONVECTION.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, REACHING MAXIMUM COVERAGE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN  
THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY A LOW-END ISOLATED SHOWER  
THREAT OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE  
MID-60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL  
FEATURE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. FOG IS PROBABLE  
EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES AND WHERE  
RAINFALL OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY, CONDITIONAL UPON PARTIAL  
CLEARING.  
   
LONG TERM  
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THE LONG PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA WITH A TROUGH OFF  
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC ACROSS  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX  
REGION, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE CA AND  
MEXICAN BORDER AND EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE  
PACIFIC. AT THAT POINT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN  
THE MN TO IA VICINITY WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM AN  
UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CANADA TO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD INITIALLY  
BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EAST  
TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH THE TRAILING  
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OH VALLEY REGION, BUT LIKELY NORTH OF THE OH  
RIVER AND THEN WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE  
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS/DAKOTAS. ANOTHER SFC LOW CENTERED IN  
THE MANITOBA VICINITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING IN  
WESTERN CANADA.  
 
FOR THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF TROUGHING AT 500 MB  
SHOULD SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND  
EASTERN KY FROM THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING  
MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT UPSTREAM  
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY TO THE GREAT  
LAKES AND GENERALLY PASS NORTH OF EASTERN KY ON FRIDAY WITH  
GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB PROGGED ACROSS EASTERN KY AT  
THAT POINT. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND BECOME CENTERED A  
BIT FURTHER WEST OFF THE CA TO BAJA COAST. MEANWHILE THROUGH  
INITIALLY FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTHWEST CONUS SHOULD MOVE  
EAST TO THE HUDSON BAY TO WESTERN ONTARIO REGION TO PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS  
THE BOUNDARY INITIALLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF EASTERN KY SHOULD  
SAG A BIT SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO PORTIONS OF THE OH  
VALLEY THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH AS TROUGHING WORKS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF CANADA AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL  
CONUS THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF EASTERN KY  
AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SFC LOW ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS AND  
TRACKING TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE  
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING TO THE MID MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AT THAT POINT. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
AND INTO PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, A SFC  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST  
GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME. WITH THE RISING HEIGHT TREND AT 500 MB FROM THURSDAY TO  
FRIDAY, FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE INITIAL  
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION SHOULD HELP TO FIRE LARGELY  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH  
PASSING GENERALLY NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY  
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION ON  
FRIDAY ALSO LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST  
ACROSS ONTARIO TO QUEBEC, THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE  
NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES AND REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL TROUGHING IN  
BETWEEN THE RIDGING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE  
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,  
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO  
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WHILE THE WEAKENING TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES  
TO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OH VALLEY REGION AND  
BECOMES DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF  
CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME  
AS WELL. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A SLIGHT MAX IN  
CONVECTIVE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ENS FOR  
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
LIMITED THIS WEEKEND AS IT WILL BE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AND THEREBY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED  
STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL  
WITH A GENERAL PEAK IN CONVECTION ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING THOUGH WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA,  
SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, GUIDANCE HAS RISING  
HEIGHTS 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY, TN  
VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE AXIS OF WEAK  
TROUGHING BETWEEN THAT RIDGING AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
CONUS TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/CENTRAL  
CONUS. THIS UPPER RIDGING WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM  
THE NORTHEAST GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SHOULD  
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING COMPARED  
TO EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE RESULT SHOULD BE NEAR OR  
BELOW AVERAGE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS FOR MID JULY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY TO NEAR OR IN EXCESS  
OF THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY LOCALES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO DIE OUT COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG FORMATION WILL OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL VALLEY  
LOCALES TONIGHT AND AFFECT ANY TERMINALS WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY  
WAS MORE PROMINENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FOG WILL  
CLEAR OUT BY 13Z WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
THAT AFTERNOON, FOR MOST SITES. IN ANY STORM THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY MUCH REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS. WINDS  
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT LOCALLY  
STRONGER AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...GREIF  
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...GREIF  
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