033
FXUS63 KJKL 120402
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ARRIVE AS ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
WITH A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -
ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- INSTANCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WHERE STORMS ARE MOST
PERSISTENT, LEADING TO ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FLOODING -
PARTICULARLY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 8 AM EDT ON WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
IT'S BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE STILL COULD
BE HYDRO ISSUES WHERE THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HOPEFULLY, THIS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE PRECIP POTENTIALLY REGENERATES. MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE WANTING TO DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST
STRENGTHENS AND IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY OUR PRIOR
CONVECTION. CONSIDERING RECENT HISTORY, THERE'S NOT EXACTLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
TRACK THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING IN HIGHER
POPS AGAIN BY DAWN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF IN A REGION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
COURTESY OF BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NUMBER OF IMPULSES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, THERE ARE FEW
DEFINED FEATURES IN OUR AREA; ON A LARGER SCALE, A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONALLY, MORNING CONVECTION HAS
LEFT A HIGHLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA,
SPANNING ROUGHLY A LINE FROM BATH COUNTY TO PIKE COUNTY. STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA,
LARGELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY; MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE
STORM COMPLEXES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THESE COMPLEXES
RACE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KENTUCKY, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, A TIGHT
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RAP
GUIDANCE INDICATING EXTREME SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 5000
J/KG ACROSS THE RELATIVELY UNTAPPED SOUTHEASTERN CWA, GENERALLY
DECREASING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT COULD
SERVE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR MCS PROPAGATION IN THE
COMING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX, AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF 30 KTS WILL ALSO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH THE BEST SHEAR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, DRIVEN BY A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS ONGOING
COMPLEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE WIND RISK, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
NUMEROUS EXISTING BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COMPLEX PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH HREF MEAN PW VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS EVENING
(REPRESENTING THE 80TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY), AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE,
AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL ALLOW ANY STORM TO BECOME AN
EFFICIENT RAINMAKER. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER, SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND MANY CAMS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS. THUS, WITHIN QPF
OUTPUT, SIGNALS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (ALTHOUGH SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH).
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WPC HAS PLACED A MODERATE (LEVEL 3/4) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES (WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN IS HIGHER). OF NOTE, ANY
RAIN THAT DOES FALL TONIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SATURATED SOILS IN
THE COMING DAYS AS ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES. TO ADDRESS THIS
TREND, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL
COMPLEXES OF STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BECAUSE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW TODAYS CONVECTION EVOLVES,
EXACT IMPACTS OR TIMING REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME;
THEREFORE, SPREAD IN MODEL QPF REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, TONIGHTS RAIN MAY SERVE TO PRIME THE AREA FOR FURTHER
FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW, WHERE A SIMILARLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE IN PLACE. ACCORDINGLY, THE WPC HAS MAINTAINED A HIGH END SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST AREA, OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF AT THIS TIME.
THE SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED AN ADDITIONAL LOW END (MARGINAL,
LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
DRIVEN BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS;
HOWEVER, THIS TOO WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN SHORT, ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND FLASH FLOODING, THE DETAILS OF THESE RISKS WILL DEPEND ON
MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IN ADVANCE. FOR
NOW, NBM POPS HAVE BEEN BLENDED WITH CAMS TO CAPTURE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM; HOWEVER, RAW NBM OUTPUT HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED LATER IN THE PERIOD, WHERE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
COMPOUNDS WITH TIME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WITH A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG NW TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, INCLUDING KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY - A CONTINUATION FROM THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALSO SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THIS COULD CONTINUE THE
PAIN TRAIN OF MCS'S PASSING SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. IN SOME PROMISING NEWS, THE RIDGE DOES START TO BUILD
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM TRAJECTORY NORTH A
BIT. HOWEVER, COULD STILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE
DURING THE DAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FURTHER AS WE GO
INTO SATURDAY, SUSTAINING THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE IT'S PUSHED BACK
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TROUGHING INCREASES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, REINTRODUCING THE SAME NW TO SE FLOW TO THE REGION
AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST DAYS, WITH EACH ROUND OF MCSS
THAT MOVES THROUGH, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ON INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS - SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. CAMS HAVE REALLY NOT BEEN HANDLING
THESE MCSS WELL IN THE SHORT TERM, BOTH SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY. AND
IF THE CAMS AREN'T HANDLING IT WELL, THE LONG-TERM MODELS ARE ALSO
NOT LENDING MUCH CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY IS ALSO A BIT INTERESTING
BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LESSONING, BUT THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE AS A COLD FRONT,
WHICH COULD CONTINUE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION - THOUGH
STILL UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE AN MCS OR JUST MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. BY SATURDAY, AS RIDGING TAKES
FURTHER HOLD AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE
STATE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL. THIS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THE NBM DOES STILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW END POPS,
MAINLY ALONG THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE, BUT DON'T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE AT THIS POINT.
WHEN THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SET BACK UP WITH SW FLOW ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WPC IS ALSO ANALYZING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE AS WELL, WHICH, IF IT PANS OUT, WOULD BRING YET
ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONTS AND NUMEROUS SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH, OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RATHER STEADY-STATE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND DIMINISH EARLY
TONIGHT WHILE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP. THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS IS LOW, MAKING THE FORECAST LOW CONFIDENCE AND
MESSY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
069-086>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...FAGAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...TITUS
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