040
FXUS63 KJKL 241553
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1053 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY, BUT COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS EXCEPT FOR
LOADING IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND TWEAKING THOSE TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING TEXT AND RADIO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CHANGES. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WERE MOVING THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF CAPE
COD WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTH CAROLINA
TO NEAR THE KY AND TN BORDER BEFORE BECOMING RATHER WAVY TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO SD TO MT TO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE GULF STATES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF AND
EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY REGION AND
SOUTHEAST AND WEST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. FURTHER WEST,
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED WEST OF BC AND AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS SOUTH TO THE WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGING WITH ONE OF THESE OF NOT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE ND VICINITY WITH YET ANOTHER ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY VICINITY. A FEW
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED ON NORTHERN FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH MORE SUSTAINED SCATTERING AND/OR CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVING MOVED SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND INTO AREAS NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. SOME FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED THERE, WITH LOCALLY MORE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES NORTH OF THE AREA IN OH. FURTHER SOUTH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NEARING THE VA BORDER AND THE KY/TN/VA TRI
STATE ARE AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. TEMPERATURES
WERE MILD AREAWIDE, WITH UPPER 40S IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
FLEMING AND ROWAN COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 50S
ELSEWHERE. NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST WILL
MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND DURING THE DAY TODAY A SUBTLE TREND
OF HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SFC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS HIGH SHOULD
BRIEFLY HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TN AND KY BORDER,
HOWEVER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY A WARM FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM SD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY/IA AND MO BORDER AREA.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE MANITOBA TO ND
AREA MOVES AROUND THE RIDGING AND ACROSS THE UPPER MS TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH QUEBEC TO THE
NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TO SASKATCHEWAN AND
ONTARIO. IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE COMMONWEALTH/OH VALLEY, THE SFC WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO NEAR
THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING SHOULD TREK ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY TO NORTH OF CWA AT DAWN ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS, THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG TO NEAR THE
OH RIVER.
AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN AROUND THE
PASSING HIGH, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS,
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT, BUT AREAS NEARER TO THE
FRONT THAT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER AND EVEN
START RETURNING NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LOW AND MID
CLOUDS NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH MOISTURE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
GENERALLY BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED SHOWERS RETURNING
TO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION AS EARLY AS NEAR SUNSET AND THEN
DEVELOPING FURTHER OVER AND/OR MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION INCLUDING EASTERN KY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR 850 MB
INCREASES. MEASURABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BUT
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND GENERALLY OMEGA,
QPF SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, QPF SHOULD BE ON ABOUT A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS.
NBM POT THUNDER SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDER NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE WARM
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS
WHEN ASSESSED FROM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE 00Z
HREF. THE 00Z HREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE JKL CWA HAVE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR/CAPPING NEAR AND ABOVE 700 MB AND WOULD LIKELY
KEEP CONVECTION FROM HAVING SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO REACH THE -20C
LEVEL AND ALLOW FOR ANY LIGHTING ESPECIALLY MORE THAN A COUNTY OR
TWO INTO THE JKL CWA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS AND THE 00Z HREF ARE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE JKL CWA FROM OH TO NEAR THE HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR TO PORTIONS OF
WV. THE SPC AREAL EXTENT OF GENERAL THUNDER THAT TOUCHED PORTIONS
OF FLEMING COUNTY TO MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES SEEMED MUCH MORE
REALISTIC. OPTED TO GO FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NBM POT
THUNDER AND THE SPC GENERAL THUNDER LINE AND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ABOUT ONE ADDITIONAL COUNTY TO THE WEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY THAT THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER IS NOT AS
WARM AND A RUMBLE OR TWO COULD BE REALIZED. ANY THUNDER IF IT WERE
TO OCCUR WOULD BE A NOVELTY.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE GULF TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN AXIS IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS THAT REACHES NEAR THE MS VALLEY AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO MAY PASS BY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. OTHERWISE, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER TO ONTARIO AND THE SFC WAVE TRACKS TO THE
ATLANTIC, THE BOUNDARY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE JKL
CWA AND ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LONGER BREAKS IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES THERE
GENERALLY PEAK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. QPF FROM
THESE AGAIN IS LIGHT WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED IN THE
NORTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS DAY HOLIDAY
AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL STILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN A REGIME OF PROGRESSIVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NAVIGATE
THROUGH THIS FLOW ALOFT, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRANSLATES TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION THIS WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ERODING WITH EACH
PASSING SYSTEM. ITS FLATTENED FORM WILL NUDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY, PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
BUT KEEPING THE WARM AIR IN PLACE. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
EMERGE UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. AS
THAT SYSTEM'S PARENT TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
STATES ON SUNDAY, A BETTER-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
COLUMN AFTER FROPA OCCURS, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A COLDER PATTERN
TO END 2025.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY DISCUSSED IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES
COULD DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT, BUT A PASSING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD DRAG THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA BACK IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OHIO INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PULL THE
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT WITH FRIDAY EVENING'S RAIN. SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A CAP OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETER SPACING REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE, POTTHUNDER GRIDS WERE KEPT
BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15% THRESHOLD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THE
CLOSER ONE GETS TO THE WV STATE LINE, WHERE PROBABILISTIC DATA IS
MORE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS SET UP. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
MAY STILL BLOW AROUND OUTDOOR DECORATIONS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY/SPS CRITERIA IS LOW. LIKEWISE, QPF REMAINS
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THUS, THE MOST NOTICEABLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE VALUES ARE 20 DEGREES GREATER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES (HIGHS NEAR 45 AND LOWS NEAR 30) FOR
LATE DECEMBER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE WARMTH CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, WHEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COULD YIELD IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT'S BOUNDARY, MEANING THAT LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION OR AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED. INSULATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT'S CLOUD COVER WILL GIVE SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES A
HEAD START. MOST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 65 DEGREE
MARK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NEARBY RIDGE
RESULTS IN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PEAKING OUT, THERMOMETER READINGS IN
THE LOW 70S CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PROPAGATES EAST, AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE MINTS IN THE UPPER
HALF OF THE 50S. THEREFORE, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
CLIMB TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH AND THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT
SIGNAL THAT SUNDAY'S SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE TANGIBLE IMPACTS,
WHETHER THIS BE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION OR COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME OF YESTERDAY'S CONVECTIVE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CLIPPED THE
JKL CWA WITH 5-15% CONTOURS. THOSE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE
LARGELY DRIVEN BY DYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SUPPORT, AS DECENT FORCING, A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET, AND ROBUST SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF FROPA CASCADES
INTO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE
TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION AND OVERNIGHT FROPA, WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE INSTABILITY. THE CURRENTLY-AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY,
AS ARE MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TOTALS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN
INCH. THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-SHEAR/LOW-CAPE, LINEAR-TYPE
CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS AS HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE INGESTS THE LATEST TRENDS
IN THE DATA.
REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE OUTCOMES, A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH SUNDAY'S
SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE POTENT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
SUBZERO 850MB TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING, AND PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE FLOW
WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, BUT IT
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST. A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL WRAP INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL, BUT
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
MODELS DEPICT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUBFREEZING HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS/NEAR 20 EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
IS A 30 TO 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SWING RELATIVE TO THE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SO 2025 IS POISED TO GO OUT ON A
COLDER NOTE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
MVFR GENERALLY FROM CEILINGS WAS RECORDED AT THE 4 MORE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES IN LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
SAGGED TO NEAR THE TN AND KY BORDER. MVFR VIS WAS OCCURRING AT
KSYM AND OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE SCATTERED BUT FOG HAS FORMED. FURTHER SOUTH, SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES NEAR THE TN BORDER SOME IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS WAS REPORTED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES. KJKL, KSYM, AND KSJS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 03Z WITH A FEW
HOURS WITH VFR DEVELOPING AT KSME AND KLOZ BY 22Z. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD RETURN AREAWIDE BETWEEN 03Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
IFR TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE. VARIABLE WINDS AT NO MORE
THAN 5 TO 10KT ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z, THEN WINDS SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO END THE PERIOD IN THE 5 TO 10KT
RANGE AS THE FRONT PASSES AND CONDITIONS BECOME MIXY WITH SOME
MOMENTUM AND HIGHER GUSTS MIXING DOWN AT LEAST IN RAIN SHOWERS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
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