165
FXUS63 KJKL 211836
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
236 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, MILD DAYS, AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES, RIVERS, AND
LARGER CREEKS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH EVENTUAL RISING HEIGHTS,
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND QUIET FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH
VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND RIDGES STAYING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. EVEN SO, THERE COULD STILL BE A SHELTERED
VALLEY SITE THAT MIGHT SEE A TOUCH OF FROST. THERE WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE SOME MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS
FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9 AM AND 10 AM.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THURSDAY. DID OPT TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN THE BIAS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE LOWER SIDE UNDER THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RISING HEIGHTS NOTED ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
LARGELY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NBM. THURSDAY
NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR PERHAPS SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AN EXPANSIVE AND HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS;
MEANWHILE, DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE AND ANOTHER COASTAL IMPULSE NEAR
THE OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TIME,
SUCH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY.
AT THE SURFACE, EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
QUITE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY, AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S, AND EACH NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS TO DEVELOP. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOWS IN THE VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, AND GIVEN SUCH A DRY AIR MASS, THIS
MAGNITUDE OF COOLING SEEMS REASONABLE. IN FACT, RAW NBM DEWPOINTS
ARE LIKELY TOO MOIST GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THUS, A DRIER DEWPOINT BLEND WAS FAVORED, WITH
RESULTANT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY, MUCH
MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AS USUAL, AS OUR VALLEYS COOL
EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT, FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST COAST WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT, THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN, AND BY TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL WORK TO INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH CANADA, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ROLL ON UNDERNEATH NEARBY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL VALLEY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...DJ
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