851
FXUS63 KJKL 031338
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING IN THE
MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
REFRESHED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALSO
CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF THE TN-KY AND VA-KY BORDERS. SOME AREAS
NEAR THE BORDER MIGHT SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE STEADIER RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE LINE TO THE
SOUTH. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
AN UPDATE TO POPS HAS JUST BEEN SENT OUT, WITH A QUICKER TRIMMING
OF POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WHICH BETTER MATCHES CURRENT
OBSERVED AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW EXTENDING FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING
FOR A PIPELINE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTS BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW/TROUGH.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY RESIDING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN KY CURRENTLY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY, WITH WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE
COLD FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS, EXPECT GRADUALLY
IMPROVING SKIES AND CEILINGS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHS WILL ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS, WHILE AREAS THAT
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING SOONER WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 70S, SUCH
AS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF KY HIGHWAY
15.
A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIGS FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WITH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN CONUS LOW/TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL HELP ALLOW FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE BRIEFLY BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE TWO
APPROACHING WAVES AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
TIME BEFORE THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MANUAL EDITS WERE KEPT RATHER MINIMAL, WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE
MADE TO LOWER PROBTHUNDER GRIDS SUFFICIENTLY TO REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE WX GRIDS. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG WAS
ALSO ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AS WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
OVER A COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES AND SECOND COLD
FRONT, SUNDAY WILL SEE A RECOVERY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN TO CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BEFORE
MIGRATING FURTHER EAST WITH TIME. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, SUSTAINING OUR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S, WITH A FEW
80S RETURNING TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
LOWS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, DO LOOK TO BE
PRETTY CHILLY IN THE LOWER 40S. A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY
SUPPORT FROST QUITE YET, WITH FOG A BETTER POSSIBILITY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR AS OF 11Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LINGERING
LONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR ALL TAF SITES, WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OR VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SEVERITY AND LONGEVITY OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO HONE IN ON THIS A BIT BETTER.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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