811
FXUS63 KJKL 151347
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
947 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED MID-WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO AROUND 90F TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY A
LOW AFTERNOON STORM CHANCE (30% OR LOWER) IN SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES IN THE 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE FORECAST FOR A HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SUMMER DAY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS RIVER VALLEY FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR AS SOLAR INSOLATION AND DIURNAL MIXING TAKE ROOT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ACCORDINGLY WARMED INTO THE 70S AT MOST OF THE
AREA'S OBSERVATION SITES, WITH SOME OF OUR WESTERN MESONET SITES
ALREADY FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THUS, WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S APPEAR REASONABLE. STILL EXPECT A
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, WITH THE MOST
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. RELATIVELY MORE
FILTERED HEATING COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO STAY IN THE UPPER 80S IN
THESE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOCALES, BUT POP-UP SHOWERS APPEAR
LESS LIKELY TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ELONGATED SYNOPTIC
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS, THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS
OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW THAT FOG HAS SPREAD THROUGH MANY OF THE RIVER
VALLEYS. THE LATEST WEATHER MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
IOWA VICINITY. LOOKING ALOFT, AN ELONGATED 500 HPA HIGH EXTENDS FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE DAKOTAS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD INTO A BROADER OVERALL MEAN RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS (OUTSIDE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHEAST, AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION OVER TEXAS).
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD TO
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. AS THAT OCCURS, HIGHER PWATS WILL
BEGIN TO SEEP IN FROM THE WEST ON THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF POP-UP CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AND I-75 CORRIDOR
AREAS. AT 850 HPA, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 19 TO 21C RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING DAILY HIGHS NOT FAR FROM 90F.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR ANY FOG THIS MORNING TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND JUST A FAIR-WEATHER SUMMER CUMULUS FIELD. IT WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F. HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE PRIOR
NIGHT, WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH MANY OF THE RIVER
VALLEYS WHILE LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 65 TO 70F RANGE. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THURSDAY, MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY, THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER GORGE TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. IT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100F.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
OVERALL THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
STUCK IN BETWEEN SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM BERMUDA. DESPITE SOME RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST EXPECT MORE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO SHORTWAVES FROM THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL BE
RUNNING IN THE 90TH+ PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BASED ON
THE MEAN OF THE MAJOR ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. GIVEN THIS SURGE IN PWATS
AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, WPC HAS PUT THE
AREA INTO THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH EVEN A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY. THEN A MORE WELL DEFINED
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THERE IS EVEN SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A DECENT
SURGE OF MUCAPE AND SOME WEAKER BUT NOTABLE SHEAR THAT COULD HELP TO
INITIATE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAKER SIGNALS
SHOWING UP IN THE MACHINE LEANING AND AI CONVECTIVE PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PERIOD WOULD THINK PREDICTABILITY IS A BIT TOO
LOW TO START MESSAGING THIS TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
BY MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND NOTICEABLY DRYER AIR
IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT THE TAF SITES
AS THE 12Z ISSUANCE TIME. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z AT THE TAF
SITES AND BY 14Z ACROSS THE REMAINING VALLEYS. THEN EXPECT MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS. BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE MVFR LEVELS AT
AROUND 4 KFT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AND GENERALLY BELOW 5
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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