316
FXUS63 KJKL 151322
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
922 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY
MORNING MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS, ESPECIALLY AT JACKSON.
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD (WED NIGHT-FRI).
- THE LOCATION, MAGNITUDE, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF CONVECTION
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
FOG HAS LARGELY LIFTED AT UPDATE TIME, SO FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THIS
GENERALLY LED TO A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE DAY FOR
SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOST
PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE, INITIAL VALLEY FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH AROUND 3 HOURS PAST SUNRISE (9 AM EDT).
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A RATHER BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE
CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE OH VALLEY REGION AND
THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
SOME CONVECTION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES. IN THE
BROAD TROUGH PATTERN, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS WITH ONE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT
HAS GRADUALLY MOVED FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KY INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF EASTERN KY. AT THE SAME TIME, VALLEY FOG HAS BECOME
QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE KCPF AND KBYL AWOS HAVE
REPORTED VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE ONE QUARTER OF A MILE TO ONE
MILE RANGE. KY MESONET CAMERAS AT THE JACKSON, JOHNSON, AND POWELL
COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS WITH NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTIONS EVIDENT ON SOME KYTC CAMERAS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WERE NOT PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, IN THE MID 50S IN SOME
VALLEYS AND MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITH LOW 60S IN SOME VALLEYS
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND WHERE CLOUDS WERE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE
NORTHWEST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
CLOUD COVER BUT NOT MUCH OTHER NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. VALLEY
FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 3 HOURS OF SUNRISE
(ABOUT 9 AM EDT) GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE 70S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND
TN VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO SECTIONS
OF THE APPALACHIANS BY DAWN ON TUESDAY AND BRING LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN
TYPICAL COLDER VALLEY SPOTS AS SUPPORTED BY COOP MOS DATA WITH MID
50S ON COALFIELD RIDGES AND IN AREAS OF MORE OPEN TERRAIN. VALLEY
FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AND MAY BECOME RATHER EXTENSIVE IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS, LAKES, AND RIVERS IN THE
KENTUCKY, BIG SANDY, AND CUMBERLAND BASIN. OF NOTE, THE RECORD LOW
AT JKL ON THE 16TH OF 54/1999 COULD BE THREATENED.
FOR TUESDAY, VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO 3
HOURS OF SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND WEAKENS. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TREK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PRECEDED BY A SFC LOW THAT ALSO
REACHES THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH UPPER
TROUGHING THAT REMAINS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH ON
TUESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW LEADING TO TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER,
BUT STILL REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR HIGHS. MEANWHILE, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE
LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN FREE WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST, THOUGH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2026
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND THE COLD FRONT NEARING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY THAT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STALL COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR . MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY THE CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN KY.
A MORE ROBUST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN
QUICKLY DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO FUTHER ACTIVATE THE NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY COULD REACH MAINLY SECTIONS OF EASTERN
KY, PARTICULARLY THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC SEVERE
OUTLOOK PROBABILTIES HAVE SHIFT A BIT NORTHWEST WITH POTENTIALLY
THE BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AT TIMES, WITH CHARACTERISTICS
OF A MCS LIKE PATTERN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAKES PREDICTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT EITHER
WAY THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT PLAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT WITH MODEL SUITES SHOWING AROUND A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 1.75 PWAT VALUES BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE SHOWING UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC DATA
HAS BEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF
COAST AND HOW THAT WILL PLAY INTO THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THE
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING LREF MEANS, CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 1250-2500 J/KG THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN
INSTABILITY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS IN THE LREF. THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS GENERALLY A BIT MORE LACK LUSTER AT AROUND
25-35 KNOTS, BUT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION. OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS NOTED WHILE SAMPLING
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID, THERE WOULD BE A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH AMPLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GOOD ACCESS
TO DEEP GULF MOISTURE. ALSO NOTED, THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND
AFOREMENTIONED PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE (VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THE ECMWF
EFI ALSO NOTED A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE SOT SUGGESTING SOME HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. THE NBM QPF DETERMINISTIC VALUES HAVE TRENDED DOWN
SOMEWHAT TO THE 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE THURSDAY IS THERE WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT MIXING IS NOTED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE, WITH ECMWF EFI EVEN MORE NOTABLE FOR STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY AND GEFS SHOWING SIMILAR SIGNALS
IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. THIS SETUP BARES WATCHING
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO END THE WEEK AND THIS WOULD AID
IN BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE SHORT LIVED, AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING IN BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES AT THIS LATER TIMESCALE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE, VFR WAS REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH LOW
CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT IN THE NORTH. THESE HAD BASES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 3.5 TO 6KFT AGL. VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
AT THIS TIME, HAVE CONTINUED TO HAVE THE TAF SITES NOT AFFECTED
BY ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FOG. HOWEVER, SOME NON TAF
LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO IFR IF NOT NEAR AIRPORT MIN AND THESE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE TIMES OF MVFR AND IFR OR
LOCALLY LOWER REDUCTIONS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z LEAVING VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z AT 5 TO 10KT. WITH
THE HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO END THE PERIOD. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN FOG AFTER 03Z
TO 04Z, THOUGH TAF LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ/JP
AVIATION...JP
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