204
FXUS63 KJKL 301518
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
UNTIL A SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
REFRESHED THE FORECAST, REMOVING THE MORNING FOG REFERENCE, AS IT
HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE T/TD GRIDS USING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND NEWEST
MODEL DATA AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW EAST OF KENTUCKY BUT
STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS - BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON THE RIDGES.
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT RIDGING NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING PUSHING
UP THE 5H HEIGHTS FOR THE JKL CWA AND HOLDING FIRM THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TROUGHING FROM THE WEST AT
BAY FOR A BIT LONGER WHILE FORCING ITS ENERGY TO PASS BY WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. ON ACCOUNT OF THE STILL
SMALL MODEL SPREAD, MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ONCE AGAIN CAME
FROM UNADJUSTED NBM DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS EXTRA TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOWS - ALONG WITH A BIT OF EXTRA DRYING FOR THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. AS FOR POPS, THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND BEYOND - IN LINE WITH NBM AND ALL THE CAMS
GUIDANCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER PAIR OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE STATE PUMPING
IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH
INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE BUT ANY RAIN STAYING WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT A REPEAT OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG, AND MODERATE RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT AGAIN WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS - ADJUSTED THE T GRIDS TONIGHT FOR
ENHANCED TERRAIN DETAILS AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED
EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS, KEPT THEM AT MINIMUM VALUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING - ALIGNED WITH THE NBM AND CAMS GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ~1020 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BENEATH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. FURTHER UPSTREAM, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL BE RAPIDLY DAMPENING INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. RECENT LREF RUNS HAVE TRENDED NOTICEABLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN, DEEPENING THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW WHILE
STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS ENHANCED
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM-AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMING PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES IN RECENT GUIDANCE, SUPPORTING HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON FRIDAY.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SINK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH ON
FRIDAY, DRAWING RICH GULF MOISTURE UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS AND BRINGING AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP
AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER/APPALACHIANS,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
ON SATURDAY UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN.
A SECONDARY NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, PUSHING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION AND STEADILY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S). HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS, ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES COULD REMAIN ALONG THE KY-TN
AND KY-VA BORDERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES FULL CONTROL BY MONDAY MORNING, SHUTTING OFF ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLEASANT
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COOLER LOWS IN THE 40S TO RETURN TO
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL KEEP MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG THAT MAY
BRING MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 8 KTS AFTER 15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GREIF
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