546
FXUS63 KJKL 250257
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1057 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT
SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN TO DROP THE NORTHWESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FLOOD WATCH.
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND THAT IS WHERE THE SECOND SEGMENT OF THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS DEPARTED INTO WV/VA AND JUST SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS BRUSHING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PASSES LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS OVER
WESTERN KY, AND A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
EAST OF THE FRONT. BROAD CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS EASILY BEEN ENOUGH TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED OVER
EXTREME EASTERN KY AHEAD OF THE STORMS TO GIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND IS SUPPORTING SOME
STRONG CELLS, DESPITE VERY MODEST FLOW ALOFT OF 30-35 KTS. THE
FLOW IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THERE IS 1.75-2" OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS HAS SUPPORTED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN TRAINING CELLS. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL (UNTIL LATE TONIGHT).
AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND HEATING IS LOST. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
LARGE SCALE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE VA BORDER OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. IF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOOKS MORE LIKELY, IT'S POSSIBLE THE FLOOD
WATCH IN SOUTHEAST KY COULD BE EXTENDED.
CONFIDENCE DECLINES FURTHER GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE RING OF FIRE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO REMAIN ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT SMALLER
SCALE SUPPORTING FEATURES WILL BE WEAK AND PROBABLY HARD TO PIN
DOWN. THE POP IS LOWER BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON TUESDAY WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY
ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS MODEL
SUITES AND FORECAST PACKAGES, HEAVY RAINFALL INDICES REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED. FORECAST PWATS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1.70 INCHES TO 1.90
INCHES, DRIVEN BY ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION. THESE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES, PAIRED WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES NOTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS, CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BREAKDOWN OF THIS WET AND STORMY
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD AS A
COLD FRONT, BRINGING AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
NONETHELESS, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK,
FORECAST QPF RANGES FROM 0.75 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO 1.25 INCHES NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AS
NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THESE QPF VALUES CARRY A HEAVY
CAVEAT, AS TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY FLUCTUATE BASED ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND EXACTLY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SET
UP.
BY FRIDAY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION. WHILE
IT WILL INITIALLY REMAIN A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ONCE THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
IN SUMMARY, AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH. WHILE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST, REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE ACROSS MOST PLACES BY 4Z BUT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST LONGER OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS
MAINLY RANGED FROM VFR TO MVFR AT TAF ISSUANCE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN TO AT LEAST MVFR AREA-WIDE OVER NIGHT AND COULD
WORSEN TO IFR/LIFR IN SOME AREAS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EVENTUALLY
FORECAST TO BEGIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE THE PERIOD ENDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-
117>120.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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