763
FXUS63 KJKL 020130
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FROST IS EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS BY DAWN ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
- FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY IN MANY VALLEYS.
- SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT TO FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WITH LOW CLOUDS DRIED UP IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
JKL FORECAST AREA, AND MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. HOWEVER, THE
SLIGHT CHANGE WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE FROST POTENTIAL, AND AN
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THAT AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS MAY LIMIT THESE TO MERE SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 60S; HOWEVER, AREAS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING POST-FRONTAL CAA, WITH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE CWA, BRINGING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE
MID 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. BASED ON TODAYS HIRES/CAMS SUITE,
IF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES,
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. DUE TO THIS
THREAT, AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR FLEMING, ROWAN, ELLIOTT, BATH, AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, BUT
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT CAA REGIME, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. THIS COMBINATION OF CLEARING
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND CAA WILL ALLOW FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. CONSEQUENTLY, A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO
COVER BOTH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED FROST DEVELOPMENT.
IT IS HIGHLY ENCOURAGED THAT GARDENERS, FARMERS, AND OTHER
STAKEHOLDERS TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A PASSING COLD FRONT
BRINGING ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TODAY, SPECIFICALLY
FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS LATE TONIGHT, USHERING IN A COOLER AIR MASS WITH A FROST
THREAT TONIGHT AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE THREAT SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
EXTENDED FROM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
FURTHER WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING TO THE
WEST OF THE CA COASTLINE. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. INITIALLY
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TO MID MS VALLEY VICINITY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF
THAT TREKKING ACROSS THE MT/WY TO DAKOTAS AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TX TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. FURTHER UPSTREAM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING FRONT
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ROCKIES.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT, THE REGION WILL BEGIN IN NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. THE UPPER FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW EVOLVES OVER MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO AND A TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPER OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SFC LOW IN CANADA SHOULD MOVE
INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING FRONT WORKING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO OK/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TO MONDAY, SO ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WERE CARRIED TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY WITH ONE OR MORE PRECEDING
SHORTWAVES WED AND WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE AREA AT MID WEEK WITH A SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT WITH THIS FRONT AND
PENDING THE TIMING, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD EXIST FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS. SOME VARIATIONS OF 00Z AI ENS AND GEFS BASED
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS SOME LOWER END PROBABILITIES TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS PEAK DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNING.
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS EASTERN KY ON FRIDAY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY. COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND
THE FRONTS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN ROUNDS OF CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES
AND THIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HOW COLD LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IS POSSIBLE WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION OCCURS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MIDDAY TUESDAY, MORE
WIDESPREAD, MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT.
PROBABILITIES FROM THE 00Z LREF ARE ROUGHLY A 50 TO 70 PERCENT FOR 1
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH NEARLY ALL OF THIS
LIKELY TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DROUGHT STATUS NEARLY STEADY ACROSS
EASTERN KY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD START ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY, WITH EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106-108-111.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-059-060-086>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
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