378
FXUS63 KJKL 021558
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1158 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
THE LAST OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE THE CUMBERLAND BASIN HAVE
FINALLY LIFTED AND BROKEN UP. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAS ONLY
BEEN UPDATED TO BLEND IN LATE MORNING OBS. |
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WERE VERY EXTENSIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
ARE TAKING SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
IT'S A FOGGY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF JKL. OBS SITES ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING THEIR LOWEST VIS, BUT FOG SEEMS TO BE LIFTING,
AND ONLY A FEW OF OUR WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING CONTINUED DENSE FOG. AS
SUCH, WILL KEEP WITH THE SPS FOR FOG AT THIS TIME, AS IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS, DEW POINTS, AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE
THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THIS ONLY RESULTED IN VERY MINOR CHANGES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START WARMING FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE COMING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
A DRY AIRMASS IS TRYING TO MOVE IN ALOFT, BUT MEANWHILE ABUNDANT
LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS HAS CREATED AN
IDEAL SCENARIO FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE BEST FOG HAS SET UP IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS, AS IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER,
EVEN HIGHER ELEVATION OBSERVING SITES ARE REPORTING SOME FOG
IMPACTS. AS A RESULT, WENT WITH GENERALLY AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA AND INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS. ALSO ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE FOG IMPACTS THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES BETWEEN 8 AND 9AM, WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PRETTY NICE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NNW, AND WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. OUR LOCATION TO THE SE OF THE APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE CWA GENERALLY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE FLOW, ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL OUTWEIGH THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THAT
OF YESTERDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON TAP.
UNFORTUNATELY, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING
INTO PLACE, WE WON'T LOSE ALL OF OUR LLVL MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY. SO
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN A BIT HUMID THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT SHOULD BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALSO ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN THE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH HOPEFULLY THE
CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO SETTLE THE IMPACTS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE CURRENT FOG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT ON THE MAIN
ELEMENTS OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF THE NATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT GENERAL
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, COVERING MUCH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AS WELL, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
WEAKNESS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MOSTLY LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW. THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 585 DECAMETERS AT 500MB. THE ECMWF
TENDS TO BE A TAD STRONGER WITH THIS RIDGE THAN THE GFS BUT WITH NO
WAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE ALOFT DURING THIS TIME THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE
OF A MINOR CONCERN. GIVEN THIS BROAD AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE
BLENDED NBM STARTING POINT TO THE GRIDS WITH NO LARGE SCALE
ADJUSTMENTS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WHERE
TEMPERATURES WIND UP ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL (IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS) AND THE
CONVECTION IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL TRENDS. WHILE
SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY - AND AS A CONSEQUENCE LIKELY OUR
WARMEST DAY OF THE SET - MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CONVECTION CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK. NIGHTS WILL BE RATHER MUGGY WITH A SMALL RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SETTING UP ALONG WITH SOME FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE JUST A NOTCH
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST PLACES
PROBABLY ESCAPING RAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY - SO STILL A RELIEF FROM THE
HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR MOST.
MADE JUST SOME MINOR AND MAINLY POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED FROM THE NBM EACH NIGHT - A BIT MORE SO
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAN THOSE LATER ONES. WITH THE POPS,
ADJUSTED AND ENHANCED THE NBM'S APPROPRIATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE 12Z HOUR, GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
FEW FAIR WEATHER VFR CU COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD CAUSE NO IMPACT, AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY HEADING INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE UPCOMING
NIGHT, THE HOPE IS THAT THIS DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS THE EXTENT AND IMPACTS OF THE FOG. WENT WITH HIGH END
MVFR IN THE TAFS AFTER 8Z, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
WITH THE UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
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