591
FXUS63 KJKL 280625
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER OVERALL WILL LAST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TOUCHING UP THE POP GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CLEANING THE AVIATION GRIDS
AHEAD OF THE 00Z TAFS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL AND AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE
WAS CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC TO THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO THE OH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF ONTARIO.
LOCALLY, CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS
OUTFLOWED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENED. MLCAPE WAS
RECENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO
30KT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE GENERALLY 7C/KM OR HIGHER.
PW ACROSS THE REGION IS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS YESTERDAY IN THE 1.5 TO 1.65 INCH RANGE.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED/MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE OUTFLOW PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO AS THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE AREA SAGS SOUTH. ALSO THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTH. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH SAGS INTO
EASTERN KY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES
EASTERN KY THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PRECEDED BY THE FIRST BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD SAG ACROSS EASTERN KY
THOUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT NEARS THE TN VALLEY. THE
SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD SAG ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND RESULT IN DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KY AND SECTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY
TO END THE PERIOD. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT AND
LIKELY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL FOLLOWING THE RECENT WET
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DESCENDS OUT OF HUDSON BAY AND PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEPART
OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, DEEP MOISTURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS TENNESSEE COULD CREEP BACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AT CURRENT,
BEST CHANCES (10-30%) REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS/KY
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ALONG THE KY-TN
STATELINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE STATELINE
SUNDAY.
WITH LITTLE FORCING TO PROGRESS A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (10-30%) WILL REMAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH THE HAL ROGERS/KY
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR TO THE STATELINE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
NEAR NORMAL OVERALL (MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS, UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, FROM VLIFR
TO VFR. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTED. THE SHOWERS WILL
DIE OUT OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIDELY
VARYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER, WITH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT AND AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES AT
LEAST AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
FORECAST AREA WIDE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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