563
FXUS63 KJKL 211156
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2018
WE ARE SEEING SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2018
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE NOW WORKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE COLD FRONT HAS
DEPARTED THE AREA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION THIS MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN SOME STRATOCUMULUS FORM AMID
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL MINIMIZE THE
RISK FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, WE STILL COULD SEE SOME DROPS IN THE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO DAWN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, AND GIVEN THIS
WILL KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING GOING FOR THIS MORNING AT THIS TIME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR YOUR SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THESE KIND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
DECEMBER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST, BUT WE WILL
REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THIS SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT AND LEAD TO THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST. GIVEN THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO OR BELOW THE 30 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. AFTER A COLD START, WE DO SEE HIGHS BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD AND DID
OPT TO KEEP SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, BUT THE MODELS AS USUAL
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE COLD VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GIVEN THIS LEANED TOWARD TO COOLER COOP MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2018
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE DRY AND CALM WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AS
THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ONCE THE RIDGE
IS FINALLY OUT OF THE PICTURE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AND BEYOND, AT LEAST IF THE BLENDED MODEL DATA TURNS OUT
TO BE ACCURATE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED
AND NIGHTLY LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2018
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SJS HAS HAD SOME PERIODS
OF MVFR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
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