755
FXUS63 KJKL 211925
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT IS THE BIG STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND ARE DROPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO GOING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, CREATING DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA WHERE SHEER AND CAPE ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST, ALL SEVERE MODES ARE
ON THE TABLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 2Z
FOR THE NW 2/3 OF THE CWA, AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN KY THROUGH 6Z. THE BIGGEST CONCERN
REMAINS STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH , HOWEVER, HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE STILL ON THE TABLE. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
WE START TO LOSE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY, BUT THE STORMS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO THE TN AND VA BORDER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE TN BORDER AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS IT'S PROGRESSION THROUGH
EASTERN KY AND DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE REMAINING STORMS AND BOUNDARY, DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AS WINDS SLOWLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. KEPT FOG IN THE FORECAST, BUT AGAIN DID NOT CONFINE IT TO
JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW - WEDNESDAY - WILL BE VERY OPPOSITE OF TODAY, THANKFULLY.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN/VA
BORDER AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS A BIT MORE STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FROM THE NW. HUMIDITY WILL BE REDUCED, WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MODELS TRY TO SHOW CLOUDS
MIXING OUT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THE FILTERING OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WILL REALLY BE EVIDENT
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S, SOME 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ANY CLEARING COULD ALSO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS THAT ARE BOTH COOLER AND MORE MOISTURE RIDDEN. KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED
AND STAGNANT LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MEANDER/RETROGRADE NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BUILDING INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY AT TIMES, WHILE BROADER TROUGHING
MODULATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH IT'S AXIS ALIGNED
FROM NEAR THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A REPRIEVE
FROM THE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AT MIDWEEK
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED
WELL INTO VA TO THE SMOKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FORM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WELCOMED NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
USHERING IN MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THIS
MONTH. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND SOME OF THIS COULD BE DENSE IN SOME MORE SOUTHERN
LOCALES. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXINESS MAY
LIMIT THIS COVERAGE. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL
SWING ON THURSDAY, WITH VALLEY FOG FAVORED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS TROUGHING SHARPENS BACK UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY, SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGING IN THE WESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODEL DETAILS REGARDING TIMING REMAIN LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS SOME MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH LREF MEAN PWATS OF 1.4 TO
1.5 INCHES NOSING BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH BY FRIDAY. POPS LOOK TO PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON INCREASED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN PLACE FROM ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
STORMIER TRACK THAT NORTHWEST FLOW CAN MEAN ALOFT, MEAN PWATS
RIGHT NOW REMAIN IN THE 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE, SO ONLY SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, TO THE UPPER 60S AND
AROUND 70 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
A BIT OF A VOLATILE TAF SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST TAFS
ARE CURRENTLY VFR, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NW AND WILL PUSH SE THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS IT DOES.
EXPECT VIS AND CIGS TO QUICKLY BE REDUCED IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES, WITH HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. TRIED TO TIME OUT
THE LINE IN EACH OF THE TAF SITES, BUT EXPECT IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH AND EXIT WITHIN 3 AND 4 HOURS FROM ARRIVAL. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS OVERNIGHT.
PREDOMINATE SW TO WRLY WINDS ARE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AS WELL, STAYING
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, EXPECT
THINGS TO BEGIN MIXING OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JKL/JP
AVIATION...JMW
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