093
FXUS63 KJKL 071115 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALSO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
FOR THE T/TD ONES. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE JKL CWA PLACING THE AREA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LARGER WEATHER PATTERN. THIS HAS MADE FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT WITH A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. THE THICKER CLOUDS OVER THE AREA LAST EVENING
HAVE THINNED AND CLEARED TO THE POINT THAT ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE
IN PLACE HAS MANIFESTED IN AREAS OF FOG WITH A FEW DENSE PATCHES
NOTED - PRIMARILY ON THE RIDGETOPS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES (AND
DEWPOINTS) ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S, AMID LIGHT WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDING ON FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE YIELDING TO INCREASING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND SHIFTING ITS CORE WESTWARD.
EVEN TODAY, THIS RIDGE IS INSUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP ENERGY
FROM DROPPING THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA LIKELY HELPING TO
SPAWN RENEWED CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. 5H HEIGHTS
THEN FURTHER DECLINE ALOFT ON FRIDAY WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG IMPULSE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY - BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE BLENDED NBM SOLUTION ASIDE FROM
INCORPORATING SOME MESOSCALE SPECIFICS FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS
INTO THE EVENING PART OF THE FORECAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE OUR WARM, HUMID, AND OFTEN STORMY
PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
STRONG, AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE, STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THE STORMS WILL
BE FUELED BY HIGH LEVELS OF CAPE OVER THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DCAPE WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON PROMPTING A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WHILE VERY HIGH PW AIR SUPPORTS THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL - ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CELL TRAINING SETS UP. THE
INSTABILITY WILL FADE INTO THE EVENING AND WITH IT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, DIMINISHED, REMAIN. STRONG
STORM THEN LIKELY RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH
HUMIDITIES PUSHING HEAT INDICES TOWARD 100 DEGREES, THOUGH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTATIONS MAKE THIS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY FOR MANY
PLACES. AGAIN TONIGHT WE CAN ANTICIPATE MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND FAVORING THE SPOTS THAT SEE THE
BEST RAIN TODAY. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO INCORPORATE
SOME ENHANCED DETAILS INTO THE POPS FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS INTO
THE EVENING - FAVORING THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
BEGINNING WITH THE UPPER LEVELS, WE START WITH A LARGE RIDGE
DOMINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE TROUGHING
SITS ROUGHLY OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND IS REINFORCED BY A SMALL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW. EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, A WAVE
OF ENERGY RIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE WEST, DAMPENING
THE RIDGE SOME AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING TROUGHING BACK TO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TURNING TO THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
NUDGES IN BEHIND IT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER INITIALLY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHILE LOWS DIP
DOWN FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE MID 60S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE FRONT SINKING TO THE SOUTH, THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT
WILL HELP SPUR ON ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SOUTH, BUT CHANCES OVERALL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL STAY MAINLY DRY WHILE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A SLIGHT UPWARD TURN AGAIN. HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, AND LOWS RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S. SHOWERS AND STORMS
THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A COUPLE OF THE TAF
SITES, BUT IMPROVEMENTS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH 13Z. THEN CONCERN WILL
BE FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...GREIF
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