656
FXUS63 KJKL 091100
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.00 INCH RAINFALL IS PROBABLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON TODAY, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER
RIDGETOPS AND ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST ARE
CERTAINLY COLDER IN THE MID 40S, BUT THAT IS STILL 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VARIABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MULTIPLE LINES OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DOWN INTO THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE WEATHER MAPS REVEAL THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM AN ~992 MB LOW NORTH OF MILWAUKEE, WI. LOOKING ALOFT TO 500
HPA, A RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
TROUGHING (COMPOSED OF A SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT) IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH.
THAT LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING, TAKING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WITH IT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY COALFIELDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AS THE LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
THIS MORNING (REACHING LAKE CUMBERLAND AND THE BLUEGRASS AFTER 6
AM AND FAR EASTERN PIKE COUNTY TOWARD NOON). THE STRONGEST CORE OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET (70+ KNOTS AT 850 HPA) SHOULD STAY
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT AT THAT LEVEL
WILL STILL BE 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
FORTUNATELY, LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF THIS
MOMENTUM FROM REACHING THE SURFACE, WITH PEAK RAP BUFKIT MIXED
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER GENERALLY 25 TO 30 KTS, EXCEPT BRIEFLY
APPROACHING 35 KTS IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES JUST BEFORE THE
PREFRONTAL SHOWER BANDS ARRIVE AND FURTHER STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EASILY DEPICTING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER WITH STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY,
BUT IN MOST CASES THE LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO BE TOO STABLE FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
BRIEFLY STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE OPEN TERRAIN WEST OF I-75. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL
COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES, THOUGH ANY HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MITIGATED BY ANTECEDENT DRIER SOILS AND LOW STREAMFLOWS. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UNDER 0.25 INCH NORTH OF I-64 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS (PINE MOUNTAIN
SOUTHEASTWARD). EVEN THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX, A REASONABLY HIGH-END
SOLUTION, STILL ONLY SHOWS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING -- VERY MANAGEABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
TEMPORARILY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PHASE AND AMPLIFY
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW NEAR/OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TEXAS TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRIEFLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL, BUT WITH
LOWER OVERALL THUNDER RISK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM RANGE FROM UNDER 0.25 NORTH OF I-64 TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
(BELL/HARLAN). EVEN UNDER HIGH-END SCENARIOS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCH OVER THE HARDEST HIT PARTS OF THOSE
COUNTIES, SO THE OVERALL FLOODING CONCERN REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER, LOOK FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY NEARING 40 MPH
OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING IN THE MID 60S TODAY, THEN DIPPING
BACK INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, PEAKING IN THE MID/UPPER
50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DEEP ~520 DAM
LOW NEAR/OVER WISCONSIN WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE ITS SURFACE LOW SPINS OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW TO ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; LREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALL TO -11 TO -12C BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 250 HPA POLAR JET BRIEFLY DIPS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS, SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
WOULD LIKELY BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION, THOUGH SOME BRIEF
SLUSHINESS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY EXCEED
THE PACE OF THE WARM PAVEMENT TO MELT THE SNOW. THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES. HEIGHTS ALOFT REBOUND SUNDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THOUGH BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THAT HIGH THEN SINKS SOUTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS POTENT REINFORCING VORT ENERGY SINKS OUT OF
NORTHERN CANADA, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTING A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISPARITY AS TO HOW INTENSE THE COLD AIR MIGHT BE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL AS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT
LAKES IN AN AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING, AND
PERHAPS EVEN A SNOW SQUALL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST. CLEARING
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR 50F OR BETTER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETREAT BACK TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH FASHION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KSYM TO JUST WEST OF
KJKL TO BETWEEN K1A6 AND KLOZ. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE LEADING
EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS PROVIDING FOR LLWS WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, LOWERING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD 10Z-12Z FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS, MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER IN
THE EAST. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS WILL COME THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS (TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KTS) JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
NEGATING THE LLWS WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR IS ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z,
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY AREAWIDE THEREAFTER WHILE SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
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