420  
FXUS63 KJKL 141146 AAA  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED THEIR CLIMB EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL  
FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY READINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS IN THE  
OBSERVATIONS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO RELENT EARLY THIS  
MORNING AS WELL, AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH THE  
MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COME UP A FEW  
DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE  
FROST ADVISORY. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES POSITIVELY TILTED  
TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RULES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BROAD AND MODEST LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES REGION, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY,  
AS DRY LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY CALM WINDS HAVE HELPED ALLOW VALLEY  
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN.  
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT, THANKS TO THE  
TROUGH OVERHEAD AND THIS HAS HELPED TEMPER THE DROP OFF A BIT  
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  
 
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH  
TROUGHINESS EXITING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY, WITH  
HEIGHTS RECOVERING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
MEANWHILE, SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST,  
EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH  
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO RISE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,  
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS BY THE  
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY  
MEANDER TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF  
THE WEEKEND, WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY MOVING IN TOWARDS THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODIFYING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE  
SHORT TERM. THIS MORNING WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COOL, BEFORE  
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, SIMILAR TO  
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SKIES WILL  
BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF  
EFFICIENTLY ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT, WITH THE COLDER  
SPOTS IN THE EAST STILL LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHILE  
BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.  
WEAKER RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR  
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE  
ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH  
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.  
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO  
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT  
EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE PARENT LOW, WILL STRETCH  
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THIS WEEKEND.  
THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL OUT OVER THE  
REGION, AND WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND LATE DAY  
THUNDERSTORMS, TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT LOCATION  
AND NORTH/SOUTH MEANDERING OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME, BUT THE  
PRIMARY THEME IN ALL THE DATA IS THAT A FRONT WILL STALL, OR  
NEARLY STALL, SOMEWHERE OVER THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM  
THIS WEEKEND WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE BEGINNING  
OF THE PERIOD, WILL KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST GULF OF  
MEXICO AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD SEE  
THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE WEEK  
PROGRESSES, IT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTH  
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE  
WARMING AND DRYING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP  
PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LOWER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS THE  
DRYING ACTS TO SHUNT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT. THE BEST  
TIMES FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD SEE A  
STEADY WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST  
TO REACH NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY.  
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH  
DAILY HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S(TUESDAY) TO THE UPPER  
70S AND LOWER 80S(WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY). NIGHTLY LOWS SHOULD BE  
IN THE 50S THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE WARMEST NIGHTS ONLY  
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE  
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, BEFORE SOME HIGHER-BASED CUMULUS  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS  
DUSK, WITH A TOUCH OF MVFR OR WORSE FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN  
WITHIN THE DEEPEST RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS  
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO  
NORTHEAST.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN  
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN  
 
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