884
FXUS63 KJKL 112342
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE
CUMBERLAND GAP WILL GET SHUNTED NORTH OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS TOWARD
LAKE CUMBERLAND AND TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS AND PENNYROYAL REGIONS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
FOLLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, SUNSHINE HAS INCREASED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERMOMETERS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
BASIN, WHERE SUNSHINE HAS PERSISTED THE LONGEST, TO THE MID 70S NORTH
OF I-64, WHERE CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED MORE STUBBORN EVEN NOW. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR, ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOOKING ALOFT, A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS
NOTED OVER THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WITH 500 HPA
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING CENTERED
NEAR/OVER THE OZARKS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAGNATE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS,
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING,
PER SEVERAL 12Z HREF MEMBERS. ASIDE FROM BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
(AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR PONDING), THIS CONVECTION, SHOULD IT OCCUR,
WOULD BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND LITTLE FORCING. FOR TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY.
MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE LATE
TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE 500 HPA TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE OZARKS
AND LIFTS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
ONLY WEAK FORCING, NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS FORMATION LATER TONIGHT AMIDST INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SEND PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1.80 AND
2.00 INCHES--EXCEEDING THE 97TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY--AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
LARGER-SCALE FORCING. MULTIPLE PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE ANOMALOUS PWATS COMBINED WITH
A WEAK, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM-CLOUD LAYER WILL
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
WHILE A SINGLE STORM IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN ISOLATION,
WEAK CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS COULD FAVOR BACKBUILDING WHILE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALLOWS CELLS TO TRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, SOIL
MOISTURE IS COMPROMISED BY ANTECEDENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-23 AND MUCH OF THE
LICKING RIVER BASIN. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 12 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREAS OF
GREATEST CONCERN. THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA,
TAKING LINGERING CONVECTION WITH IT WHILE LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. OTHERWISE, IT
SHOULD BE QUIET AND COMFORTABLE, WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK
THROUGH THE 70S. FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE. IT WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD (60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE),
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD
BE TORRENTIAL AND LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN ON THE
MILD AND MUGGY SIDE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND LOW FOG FOR MANY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
ALOFT, AT 500 MB, PROMINENT FEATURES INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. IN TIME, THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US INCLUDING
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. WHEN THIS RIDGE DOES MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION, RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OF THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOW THE AREA HOLDING ONTO THE NORTHEAST TROUGH A LITTLE LONGER
WHILE THE MEAN POSITIONING INCHES FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN, THUS POTENTIALLY DELAYING THE WARMING TREND.
CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLES HAVE THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME MONDAY, CRESTING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER: SUNDAY MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, AS WELL
AS A SURFACE LAYER THATS NOT COMPLETELY SATURATED. NBM
GUIDANCE DEPICTED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT DUE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MITIGATING FACTORS, EDITS WERE
MADE TO CONFINE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. REGARDLESS, ANY FOG FORMATION SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE KENTUCKY/VIRGINIA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST, HEIGHTS WILL TEMPORARILY FALL HEADING INTO
MONDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DELAYED TROUGH TIMING, OFFICES
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS STILL TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THE SAME CHANCES ACROSS SOME OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH TO
SOUTH. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEFORE COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S AT NIGHT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES START TO DEVIATE, LEADING TO THE NBM
SMOOTHING POP OUT OVER BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY, A 20-45% POP IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM CENTRAL KY TO NEAR THE CUMBERLAND GAP
WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF KJKL AND
KSJS, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM VFR/MVFR TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH ANYTHING BUT PROB30 GROUPS AT SPECIFIC
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, TRENDING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN/NEAR STORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109-110-119-120.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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