707
FXUS63 KJKL 271356
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
956 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES DURING MOST OF THE
WORK WEEK. HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME OPPRESSIVE DURING THE NEW WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FINALLY MAKING A MOVE INTO
THE JKL FCST AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, AND ALSO RAISED
THUNDER POTENTIAL WHERE STORMS ARE MOVING IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AND THE CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM POP AND
THUNDER GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND
ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION, JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, ALONG ITS WAVY FRONT. THIS REMAINS THE
FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ROUND OF THESE ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY, HOWEVER, THE NEXT BATCH UP ARE CURRENTLY
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS EVIDENCED BY
THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR. FOR THE MOST PART THE RAINS OF
FRIDAY AND LAST EVENING HAVE PRIMED A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA -
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 (AS CAPTURED BY THE BATH COUNTY
MESONET SITE WITH NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS) FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVING LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, IN THIS VERY
HUMID ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE AREAS OF FOG OUT THERE BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT ZONAL MID-LEVEL
FLOW TAKING ON A NORTHWESTERLY TILT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
5H RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS BURGEONING
RIDGE WILL BE THE SOURCE FOR A HEAT DOME THAT ENVELOPS KENTUCKY
AND THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, THOUGH, IT
WILL MERELY PROVIDE A GLIDE PATH FOR ADDITIONAL IMPULSES AND MINOR
WAVES - SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED - TO ROLL OVER THE JKL CWA IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE NEXT WAVE UP ON THIS CONVEYOR SLIDES EAST
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THAT NORTHWEST TILT BRINGS
ANOTHER IN FROM INDIANA LATER TONIGHT - DEPARTING SOUTH INTO
TENNESSEE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. 5H HEIGHT RISES AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
THEN FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS, THE NBM WAS USED AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS
WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED ASIDE FROM CAMS GUIDANCE
INCORPORATED INTO THE POPS AND QPF GRIDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN, TERRAIN DETAILS WERE LIMITED CONSIDERING THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ONE ROUND AFTER ANOTHER OF CONVECTION
LASTING INTO THE EVENING, AT LEAST, WITH LIKELY SOME LULLS IN
BETWEEN LASTING SEVERAL HOURS. THE ROUNDS TODAY WILL HIT MOST OF
THE AREA WHILE THOSE THAT LINGER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR THIS REASON THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN SPLIT UP TO REMAIN IN EFFECT LONGER FOR
THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR RESPONSIBILITY AND EVEN THAT MAY NOT BE
LONG ENOUGH JUDGING BY THE 06Z HRRR RUN THAT CONTINUES TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN TO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY. HIGH PW (NEAR RECORD) AIR IN PLACE WILL GIVE ANY
CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING UNTIL THIS AIR MASS DEPARTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY - THOUGH TODAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE CAPPED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
AROUND. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD CONCERNS, THE ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE STORM CLUSTERS - ESPECIALLY THOSE OCCURRING NEAR PEAK HEATING
AND INSTABILITY - WILL ALSO YIELD A THREAT MAINLY CONSISTING OF
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARILY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO FINE TUNE
THE POPS AND QPF PER THE LATEST CONSENSUS CAM GUIDANCE THROUGH
SUNDAY. DID NOT NEED TO ADJUST THE TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS FOR TERRAIN
OR DRY AIR MIX DOWN CONSIDERING THE HIGH HUMIDITY AIR MASS
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA TRANSITIONING
FROM A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN, INTO A QUIET YET HOT ONE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. ANALYZING MODELED 500-MB HEIGHTS, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH, THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FARTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, FEATURES A FEW DISTURBANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY MAY
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS A STATIONARY
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS A
COLD FRONT FROM BEING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THESE
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A 25% OF OCCURRENCE, LOCATED IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND OR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE JUXTAPOSED NEAR KENTUCKY, STORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORM
CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY AND BEYOND),
WITH SHORTWAVES MODELED TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
HEADING INTO THE NATION'S 250TH ANNIVERSARY OF INDEPENDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT NIGHT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS DEPICT DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY TROUGH
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AT ISSUANCE TIME, ANOTHER ROBUST WAVE OF CONVECTION IS WORKING
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT, A MIX OF AVIATION CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION AT ISSUANCE TIME. PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON STATION WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. SOME TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED FOR THIS AND
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 16Z, AS WELL.
OVERALL, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, BUT THERE REMAINS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/LOCATION, ESPECIALLY FROM 16Z ONWARD AND THIS CONTINUES TO
PRECLUDE USING MORE SPECIFICITY THAN PROB30 IN THE TAFS. AWAY
FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-059-
060-104-106.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ058-068-069-079-080-
083>088-107>120.
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF
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