187
FXUS63 KJKL 090620 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WHERE STORMS ARE
MOST PERSISTENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
DID ALSO TWEAK THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER RADAR AND THE
CURRENT CAMS GUIDANCE - INCLUDING ADDRESSING THE STORMS SNEAKING
PAST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT THE MOMENT. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1139 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN FROM THE DAY SHIFT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED SOUTH ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO FAR ALL THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA, AND RADAR AND CAM TRENDS DON'T SHOW ANY
CONCERNS FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA. AS SUCH, WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE
POPS THAT WERE LOCATED HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST
ALSO HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREADING INTO FAR EASTERN KY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE CONTINUED TO SINK SOUTH. WHILE STILL NOT
SURE THIS WILL IMPACT US, WENT AHEAD AND DID KEEP THE MENTION OF
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN AS A
COUPLE OF THE CAMS CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS. THE THING TO WATCH
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT SETTLES AS LOW STRATUS OR VALLEY FOG. KEPT ONGOING FORECAST
FROM THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FINALLY, LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. AGAIN,
THIS ONLY RESULTED IN MINOR CHANGES. ALL UPDATES WERE PUBLISHED
AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB. A NEW HWO AND SAF PACKAGE WAS ALSO SENT OUT
TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA, BUT AS
EXPECTED, ARE NOT VERY ORGANIZED AND ARE AS QUICK TO PULSE DOWN AS
THEY ARE TO PULSE UP. ONE STORM, HOWEVER, APPARENTLY DIDN'T GET
THE MEMO AND DECIDED TO OVER-PERFORM (LEADING TO AN SPS AND FLOOD
ADVISORY), BUT THANKFULLY IS FINALLY DECIDING TO GIVE UP THE FIGHT.
THESE STORMS HAVE OVERALL LINED UP WITH THE FORECASTED POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND IF THIS CONTINUES, COVERAGE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS - BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE. LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE ON
TRACK WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS, BUT THIS ONLY RESULTED IN MINOR
CHANGES AS WELL. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. THE FORECAST PACKAGE AND HWO ARE ALL STILL WELL
REPRESENTED, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THOSE AT THIS TIME -
THOUGH EXPECT THAT AS STORMS DISSIPATE FOR THE NIGHT WILL NEED TO
REMOVE THE EVENING STORM WORDING FROM THE HWO AT SOME POINT LATER
THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING MAINLY IN THE 80S AND MUGGY DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW PIN-PRICK SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED ON RADAR AT TIMES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT ANY
TOWERING CU HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR TO MATURE INTO CUMULONIMBUS
OVER THE JKL CWA. A GLANCE AT THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LINGERING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ATTACHED TO A
BROAD HIGH ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM QUEBEC ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO TO NEAR TOLEDO, OHIO AND THEN
BEYOND INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. LOOKING ALOFT, A BROAD 500 HPA
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS TRANSITING THE
FEATURE. THIS INCLUDES A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE SETTLING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE FEATURES ARE
PROBABLY IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS SOME
SPOTTY CONVECTION INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
WHERE SUBTLE FORCING MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION IN A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF ANY STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND
ESTABLISH A STRONG CORE ALOFT, EVEN BRIEFLY, THE PARAMETER SPACE
FEATURES PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND COULD FAVOR A VERY ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE (SUCH AS RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR) DOES SUGGEST THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH COULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER A BROADER OUTFLOW LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, PERHAPS TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY CONVECTION AS IT DOES SO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-OHIO
RIVER, POTENTIALLY SPARKING SPOTTY CONVECTION AS WELL. THUS THE
POPS, ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE, ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL STALL NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
JKL CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, PROBABLY MANIFESTING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS LATE IN
THE NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SOME LOW STRATUS BY DAYBREAK
ARE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEARER,
RADIATION FOG FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED
RIVER VALLEY LOCALES. FOR SUNDAY, NEARLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS AND RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PUT A
CHECK ON UPDRAFT VIGOR. A POCKET OF LOWER PWAT AIR DOES PASS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST, SHOULD SET THE STAGE (MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS) FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG, ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE TYPICALLY FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY
EARLY AUGUST PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A LOT OF DRY
TIME AS WELL AS A FEW HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 65F TO 70F RANGE TONIGHT, REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY, AND THEN DIP BACK INTO THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
CHANCES LATE BECOMING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 552 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT ON A SEASONABLY HOT NOTE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS FAVORING EFFICIENT
DIURNAL WARMING. WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON MONDAY MORNING, THE AREA
WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
COLLECTIVELY RESOLVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE COMMONWEALTH ON
MONDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE FORMER FEATURE GROWS. BOTH DIABATIC
AND ADIABATIC WARMING PROCESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. THESE SEASONABLY HOT
HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S) TO YIELD WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S. A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT HEAT HEADLINE PRODUCTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THIS PARTIALLY DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CAUSE HIGHS TO UNDER-PERFORM. AS THE COL
PREVIOUSLY NOTED BETWEEN THE TWO SYNOPTIC RIDGES CLOSES UP ON
MONDAY, IT WILL PUSH A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE'S ALIGNMENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING HAS INTRODUCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE POPS (15-35%)
ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALONG THE TN AND VA STATE LINES. DUE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY-DISCUSSED AND INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT
RIDGING FEATURES, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT POSE A RISK FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. RATHER, A FEW RUN-OF-THE-MILL LATE SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO
NAVIGATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES COULD TAKE THE FORM OF MCSES MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRST OF THOSE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES COULD AFFECT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND SPC HAS ACCORDINGLY
DELINEATED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK IN FLEMING
AND ROWAN COUNTIES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 8AM TUESDAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TYPE IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP,
BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG EACH COMPLEX WILL BE BY THE TIME IT
ARRIVES IN THE JKL CWA. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMA, AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS A RESULT. IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING
DETAILS SURROUNDING EACH SHORTWAVE, AND IT IS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHERE ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS MIGHT SET UP IN THE WAKE OF EACH STORM COMPLEX. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY ACCORDINGLY COMPOUNDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MEDIUM-RANGE MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS AND ANALOG-BASED CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE STILL PAINT
RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
THESE TWO DAYS. ONCE AGAIN, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE FAVORED
HAZARD TYPE IN SUCH A SETUP, BUT MESOSCALE EFFECTS COULD CAUSE THE
FAVORED RISK AREAS TO SHIFT AND OTHER CONVECTIVE HAZARDS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND WPC HAS ALREADY DELINEATED A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOODING COULD
DEVELOP IF STORMS ENGAGE IN TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING BEHAVIORS.
GIVEN THE COMPOUNDING NATURE OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
THIS SETUP, IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS.
INSTEAD, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE OUTPUT OF HIGHER-RESOLUTION
FORECAST MODELS FOR PARAMETER SPACING THAT FAVORS THOSE BEHAVIORS.
THE FIRST MCS ENTERS THE TEMPORAL RANGE OF THE LONG-RANGE CAMS
TONIGHT, AND AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE IN THE COMING DAYS,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SHOULD IMPROVE.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL, INCREASED LATE WEEK CLOUD
COVER SHOULD WORK TO SUPPRESS THE EARLY WEEK HEAT AS TIME PASSES.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODULATE BACK TOWARDS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-APPROPRIATE VALUES BY THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE MID/LOW 80S ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY AND LOWS
TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 60S AND NEAR 70. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE
IS SPLIT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE. IF IT IS SLOWER
AND/OR BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE CWA, RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. IF GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
ALOFT, THE BROAD-BRUSHED POPS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY
COULD TREND DOWNWARDS. THE 12Z EURO CURRENTLY PORTRAYS THE FORMER
SOLUTION, WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS RESOLVES THE LATTER, WITH A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA VIA MORE NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE MET WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD,
AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHICH CAMP BECOMES MORE FAVORED AS
THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE MID-WEEK MCSES SUBSIDES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH VALLEY FOG
AND/OR SOME PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN - UNLIKELY
TO AFFECT ANY TAF TERMINAL FOR TOO LONG. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS OUT
LATER IN THE MORNING, ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRESENTS ITSELF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS - THOUGH AS OF NOW
SHOULD AGAIN MAINLY BE CONTAINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE. ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT AN EVENING STORM IN THE FAR NORTH. PUT
IN A MENTION OF PROB30 AT KSYM AND KIOB TAFS AS A RESULT, COULD
ALSO SEE A CONCERN FOR KSME AND KLOZ EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON -
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CAMS FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD; HOWEVER,
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JMW/GREIF
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