622
FXUS63 KJKL 242328 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY LATE EVENING/TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PASS.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE PUSHES BACK ONSET OF 15 AND HIGHER POPS
IN NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AT LEAST A FEW HOURS COMPARED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST, BASED ON RADAR AND CAMS TRENDS. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO MADE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CHANGE IN POPS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A REFRESH OF THE
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF TO THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SOUTH THROUGH SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDED FORM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS SECTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WAS NEARING THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING FRONT WAS FURTHER
WEST AND NORTHWEST FORM IN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY TO WESTERN
AND MIDDLE TN.
TONIGHT, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH
VALLEY WHILE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE TN TO LOWER OH
VALLEYS. THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE
VICINITY AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY WHILE THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARS EASTERN KY AND THE APPALACHIANS. THE
SYSTEMS TRAILING COLD FRONT TREKS ACROSS EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS TO PLAINS.
GUIDANCE BRINGS SHOWERS EAST INTO EASTERN KY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SLOWS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. CHANCES LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOLLOWING POTENTIALLY MORE STEADY
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS DWINDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE RIDGING BUILDING IN AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
VALLEY FOG AND A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT,
PARTICULARLY IN MORE NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS WHERE CLEARING
OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER
ON SUNDAY; SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY,
WHERE THE NBM INTRODUCES SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER, DESPITE
WEAK WAA, THE BROAD CONSENSUS FOR DRY PROFILES AND HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY THESE CHANCES WILL MATERIALIZE, AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL POPS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN PLAYER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST. A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS
CYCLONE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL LEAVE OUR FORECAST AREA FIRMLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY EARLY TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, ALL OTHER DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM REMAIN MUCH LESS CLEAR. NOTABLY, THERE ARE
STILL DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, INCREASING THE
PROBABILITY OF A TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND
LREF GUIDANCE ALSO DEMONSTRATES INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH SPREAD REMAINS ASTRONOMICAL. SHOULD
A MORE DESTABILIZED SCENARIO PLAY OUT, THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD INCREASE AS SHEAR WOULD
BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE MAIN CYCLONE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS
COULD INTERACT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. SOME RECENT MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL MANY DETAILS IN THIS
FORECAST THAT MUST BE IRONED OUT, AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY REMAINS LOW. THESE TRENDS WILL BEAR MONITORING, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE UPSTREAM FEATURES.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING TUESDAYS COLD FRONT; A
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY MEANS ANY
FORECAST PRODUCED BEYOND THIS POINT IS INHERENTLY LOW IN
CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY, GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING OR
TROUGHING SOLUTIONS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH A TREND TOWARDS OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE OUTCOMES SHOWING
TROUGHING, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE FAVORED, AND THERE
IS A SIGNAL THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS COULD ROTATE
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
CONTINUED PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL QPF. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL, PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, DETAILS OF THIS
FORECAST REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, AND CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS
VERY LOW ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS IN SHOWERS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER, CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS OTHER THAN NEAR THE
VA BORDER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON, MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
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