616
FXUS63 KJKL 150203
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO UPDATE CLOUD COVER AND ESTABLISH A BETTER
HOUR TEMPERATURE CURVE. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL SEND MINOR CHANGES TO NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND THIS IS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS PRESENTLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA, FOG WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED TONIGHT, MAINLY TO THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND VERY DRY
GROUND CONDITIONS, HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS WITH
RIDGE LOCATIONS HOLDING NEAR 60.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE UNDER A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG WILL ALL BE ON
TAP THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE MONDAY,
WHEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS MAY CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY, AND COUPLE WITH JUST ENOUGH
LLVL MOISTURE, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS, TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT SINCE MULTIPLE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOMETHING, AND THE SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
IT, WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S (AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 50S IN THE DEEPEST NE
VALLEYS).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES, BUT
SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...DJ
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