442
FXUS63 KJKL 312131
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATION DURING THE WORKWEEK.
- MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME RAIN AND SNOW AROUND MIDWEEK,
WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO SOUTHEAST KY IS DEPARTING TO THE
EAST, AND ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES THE SNOW HAS ENDED.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
OH AND NORTHERN KY (EXTENDING WESTWARD) INTO OUR AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE PRIME DGZ, SO EVEN
THOUGH IT IS SHALLOW, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FLURRIES IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE VERY COLD AIR
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
BRING SOME WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES (WITH MORE
LENIENT CRITERIA). HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE
FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWEST WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE IF VALUES END UP SURPASSING ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL DRY UP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE THEN PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DYING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD
VALLEY TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE RIDGES STAY SOMEWHAT
MILDER (BUT STILL COLD) WITH AID FROM THE ONSET OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING. HOWEVER, TO THE NORTHWEST, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO. TRAILING FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW, A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A QUICK GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED; HOWEVER,
A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FROPA AS WET-
BULBING COULD SATURATE THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR TO THE FLURRIES WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT WARMING INTO
THE LOW 40S ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT THE FLURRY POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY
IS A JET STREAK DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SECOND PERTURBATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL MEXICO. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE OZARKS BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW HAS THE HEART OF THE FEATURE RIDING
ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER WITH THE FORECAST AREA SEEING
THE BEST POP CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZING
OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LARGELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD SYSTEM WHEN IT COMES TO P-TYPE AS A WARM NOSE IS NOT
COMING INTO PLAY WITH THIS EVENT, AND THERE SEEMS TO BE A CLEAR
DISTINCTION BETWEEN WHERE IT WILL BE ALL SNOW VERSUS ALL RAIN. THE
RAIN-SNOW LINE AND TRANSITIONAL P-TYPE ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE CWA WITH THE NORTH (I-64 CORRIDOR) SEEING MORE SNOW AND
THE SOUTH (KY-80/HAL ROGERS) SEEING MORE RAIN. AREAS IN-BETWEEN WILL
SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN-SNOW MIX. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO
BE, AND WHEN THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST AND THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW TAKES PLACE, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERS INTO THURSDAY WITH MODERATELY WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
MODELS START TO HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER DOSE OF
WINTER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO PASSING WAVES; THE FIRST WILL
BRING A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT TO START THE PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A VERY LIMITED AREA NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE
DISSIPATING SNOW WAS GIVING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. THAT SNOW
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND FLURRIES
TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page