420
FXUS63 KJKL 141146 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED THEIR CLIMB EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
FRESHEN UP THE HOURLY READINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS IN THE
OBSERVATIONS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO RELENT EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL, AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COME UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RULES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BROAD AND MODEST LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES REGION, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY,
AS DRY LOW LEVELS AND FAIRLY CALM WINDS HAVE HELPED ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT, THANKS TO THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD AND THIS HAS HELPED TEMPER THE DROP OFF A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH
TROUGHINESS EXITING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY, WITH
HEIGHTS RECOVERING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE, SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST,
EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO RISE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MEANDER TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY MOVING IN TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODIFYING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS MORNING WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COOL, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, SIMILAR TO
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
EFFICIENTLY ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT, WITH THE COLDER
SPOTS IN THE EAST STILL LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHILE
BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.
WEAKER RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR MAINLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO NORMAL AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE PARENT LOW, WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL OUT OVER THE
REGION, AND WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS, TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT LOCATION
AND NORTH/SOUTH MEANDERING OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME, BUT THE
PRIMARY THEME IN ALL THE DATA IS THAT A FRONT WILL STALL, OR
NEARLY STALL, SOMEWHERE OVER THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM
THIS WEEKEND WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD, WILL KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST GULF OF
MEXICO AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, IT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LOWER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS THE
DRYING ACTS TO SHUNT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT. THE BEST
TIMES FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD SEE A
STEADY WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST
TO REACH NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH
DAILY HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S(TUESDAY) TO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S(WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY). NIGHTLY LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE 50S THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE WARMEST NIGHTS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, BEFORE SOME HIGHER-BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS
DUSK, WITH A TOUCH OF MVFR OR WORSE FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN
WITHIN THE DEEPEST RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
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