336
FXUS63 KJKL 142100
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PEAKS SUNDAY. RAINFALL BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.25 INCHES WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS TO
RISE BUT SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE IS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
WARM FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT KENTUCKY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT DID NOT SLOW GOOD WARMING TODAY. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MOST
PLACES IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS, DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEAREST SUBSTANTIVE RAIN IS STILL OUT TOWARD
PADUCAH TO THE WEST AND IN SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT. THEY ALL DEPICT A LOW LATITUDE, NEARLY
CLOSED, 5H TROUGH CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TONIGHT WITH
SOME DIPPING IN HEIGHTS FOR KENTUCKY AS IT APPROACHES. HOWEVER,
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHERE A STACKED
LOW WILL BE FOUND GRINDING EAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF
THE BLUEGRASS STATE INTO SUNDAY. IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY, 5H
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND FOR THE JKL CWA AS ALL MID LEVEL
ENERGY IS SWEPT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS BEHIND. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE GONE WITH THE
NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS AND QPF TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NEAR
TERM CAMS SOLUTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THIS
EVENING WITH A STEADY AND EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS MANY OF THE EASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH THEIR NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURE
BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH THE RAIN BEFORE DAWN. WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MEAGER, MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A GOOD
SOAKING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80/HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. NUMEROUS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL SO HAVE UPPED THE QPF A TAD FOR TRAINING THERE AS WELL
AS KICKING UP THE POPS TO A NEAR CERTAINTY AFTER 09Z. WITH
COORDINATION FROM WPC, LMK, AND OHX HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE CONCERN
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ON SUNDAY FROM STILL WET GROUNDS - ICE
PATCHES STILL NOTED IN MANY LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF JACKSON - AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. NONE OF THE LARGER STEM RIVERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FLOOD LEVELS FROM THIS, THOUGH. WITH THE
ICE STILL AROUND IN MANY PLACES THE ADDITION OF RAIN BRINGS A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WITH A CLOUDY AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLY NIGHT STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
PUSHING THE POPS AND QPF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO BETTER MATCH
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CAMS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
MONDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HEADING INTO MONDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, POSITIONING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW, FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, AND AFTER A FRESH RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS, LEADING TO LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WARMER AIR ADVECT INTO THE AREA,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO MODIFY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE LOW 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FEATURE A
WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LOOKING
LIKELY DURING THE DAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTING
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE GEFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS STRONGEST
GUSTS NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH LOW PROBABILTIES OF REACHING THE ABOVE
WIND GUSTS. CHANCES OF SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS INCREASE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THE DAY.
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, A SOUTHERN STREAM
EJECTS OF THE OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LREF PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ENDING 7 PM SATURDAY. A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW BRINGS INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS AFTER 03Z. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER, SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT WESTERN TERMINALS - KSYM, KLOZ AND KSME -
INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES - A NEAR CERTAINTY - FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES
CLOSER TO 09Z FOR ALL SITES. ALONG WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES,
TERMINAL CIGS WILL DROP INTO CATEGORY MVFR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FALLING TO IFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST - REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WHOLE OF THE TAF WINDOW.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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