458  
FXUS63 KJKL 130445 AAA  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
1245 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND  
INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
THESE CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST  
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS  
ALONG WITH A TOUCH UP TO THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
NIGHT PER THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGES AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR  
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH  
A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND SAFS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
STATE AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST SEMI-  
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS STEADILY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE  
STATE AND STARTING TO IMPINGE ON THE JKL CWA WITH GUSTY WINDS THE  
MAIN CONCERN. OTHERWISE, ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS  
THE AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. IN ADDITION, JUST LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN - OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THE STORMS. CURRENTLY  
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE THE STORMS  
MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TO THE STILL MID 80S IN THE WESTERN  
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN  
THE STICKY LOWER 70S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN  
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS ALONG WITH AN  
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE CURRENT RADAR  
IMAGES AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE  
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF  
THE ZONES AND SAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS IS QUITE ACTIVE, WITH A  
SURFACE PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN HALF. THE MAIN  
SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. CURRENTLY, ITS POSITIONED OVER MICHIGAN'S UPPER  
PENINSULA. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST FROM THE LOWS  
CENTER, ACROSS CANADA, AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE CORRESPONDING  
COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOWS CENTER, REACHING  
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY, EASTERN KENTUCKY IS  
FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REGIME, BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BUT  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO  
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER  
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS  
ALREADY REFLECTED IN CURRENT TEMPERATURES, WHICH HAVE CLIMBED INTO  
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO  
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP BUT ARE  
SHORT-LIVED. THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AS THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION COULD BRING AN  
ISOLATED THREAT OF A STRONGER STORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP  
COULD BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SINCE  
SHEAR VALUES ARE NONEXISTENT TO NEGLIGIBLE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS  
ARE NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH  
INCREASING THREATS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO  
THE REGION. AS WITH SATURDAY, STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SHEAR  
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING; THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS  
NOT ANTICIPATED. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE  
AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, POP CHANCES WILL  
CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CLOSELY MIRROR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S, ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER  
PATTERN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN  
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITHIN  
THIS TIME FRAME. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT EASTERN  
KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY  
DIURNAL PEAKS IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 
THE PERIOD OPENS ON MONDAY WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THE  
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND'S ACTIVE WEATHER. AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES IN ITS WAKE, THE SURFACE "COOL  
FRONT" ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS POISED TO STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL REDUCE THE RISK  
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER, BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE  
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,  
LIGHTNING, AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL HAVE A  
MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE  
BOUNDARY. THIS FAVORS RELATIVELY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S  
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHEREAS SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 90. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE  
SOUTH FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ON  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT RISING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD  
SUPPRESS CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70, WITH  
SLIGHTLY COOLER VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER RIDGETOPS. VALLEY FOG  
APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, BUT WET GROUNDS COULD  
ALLOW FOG TO FORM ELSEWHERE.  
 
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S ON BOTH DAYS IN RESPONSE  
TO RISING HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. WHILE  
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON  
TUESDAY, TUESDAY GENERALLY LOOKS DRIER THAN WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREATER OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THESE  
DAYS ACCORDINGLY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S,  
BUT SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVERAGE COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF OVERNIGHT RIDGE-  
VALLEY SPLITS AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. FOR NOW, FOG GRIDS WERE LIMITED TO ONLY THE DEEPEST RIVER  
VALLEYS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE MINT GRIDS.  
 
OVERALL, EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
CHANCES EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SAID SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EACH  
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CUMULATIVE NATURE OF HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS NEAR  
70 OVER FOUR-PLUS DAYS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT RISK ACROSS  
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS, INTERESTS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK  
SHOULD PLAN AHEAD FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM BOTH THUNDERSTORMS AND  
HEAT. READERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE  
WARNINGS FOR CONVECTION AND TO TAKE BREAKS INSIDE IF WORKING  
OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME. AS ALWAYS, WHEN THUNDER  
ROARS, GO INDOORS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE; HOWEVER  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT A SMALL  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON ACCOUNT OF THE  
MOISTURE FROM SATURDAY'S RAINFALL, AREAS OF VALLEY FOG - LOCALLY  
DENSE - COULD DEVELOP AND CREATE LOWERED CATEGORIES AT ANY OF THE  
TAF SITES FROM ROUGHLY 08 THROUGH 12Z. A RENEWED THREAT FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPS AFTER 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LASTLY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GREIF  
SHORT TERM...VORST  
LONG TERM...MARCUS  
AVIATION...GREIF  
 
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