667
FXUS63 KJKL 222042
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARE SOLIDLY IN CONTROL TODAY.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD, ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST. PRECIP IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THESE SYSTEMS. AS THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, PRECIP WILL ALSO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS KENTUCKY. BY 0Z
FRIDAY, AS WE TRANSITION TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE TWO SURFACE LOWS WILL BEGIN MERGING AS THEY REACH
THE LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CAMS THAT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING UP TO
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM, AND THE LOW'S LOCATION TO OUR W AND SW,
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH BOTH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AS THE RAIN INTENSIFIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF VERY WET AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT
AS A WEAK RIBBON OF INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WOULDN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND, SO WILL
LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST STARTS TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW, COMBINED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
BE OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT COATINGS OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL,
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE HWO FOR RIGHT NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY FINALLY ARRIVE BY MONDAY WITH CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK, BEFORE OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM EMERGES LATE WEDNESDAY,
PRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
A CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SHOULD RETAIN ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
A RESULT. PASSING CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
CIGS FORECAST TO THICKEN AND SLOWLY LOWER HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AS WE ROUND OUT THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY
UNDER 5KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page