496
FXUS63 KJKL 162027
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS
OF POST TROPICAL STORM BARRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT MID
AFTERNOON, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) ACROSS THE AREA RANGES FROM
1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PW WILL INCREASE TO 2.1
TO 2.3 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. A LEADING SHORT WAVE
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE HEAVY RAIN INTO THE NDFD
AND FORECAST WORDING FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE MAIN REMNANTS OF BARRY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT
THE COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER 5 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT STERLING
HAS MEASURED 6.65 INCHES SINCE JULY 11. NOT SURPRISINGLY SOME OF
THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY, AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF MCCREARY AND PULASKI COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS BEEN SPARED RECENT HEAVY RAINS, SO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. HOURLY GUIDANCE VALUES RANGE
FROM VERY ISOLATED 1.3 INCH AMOUNTS TO MORE WIDESPREAD 2.3 INCH
AMOUNTS. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE HELD OFF, CONSIDERING THE ISOLATED AND
NON CONTIGUOUS NATURE OF THE LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WE ARE
OBSERVING. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS STRONGER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL THEN ALLOW FOR
TROUGHING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS
EVEN FURTHER AND SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES, BRINGING AT LEAST
A TEMPORARY END TO THE 90 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ON THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY
EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY, BESIDES SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS OR STORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE TERRAIN. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAKDOWN ON SUNDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 90S FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. LOWS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 70. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION
THE HEAT CONCERNS IN THE HWO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES STILL EVIDENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE,
MAINTAINING CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
TREND COOLER, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN THE NEAR TERM DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO UNORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER IN ALL BUT THE SJS TAF FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND KEEP FOG FORMATION TO A
MINIMUM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH
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