562
FXUS63 KJKL 272208
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
608 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE (DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT).
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KY.
- DRIER WEATHER WITH MODESTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY, WHILE TROUGHING IS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM IT THROUGH KY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE LOW, AND WITH BRISK WINDS ALOFT PRODUCING SHEAR, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE REGIME GENERATING THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, BUT THERE IS RATHER
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW IT PLAYS OUT DURING THE NIGHT.
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE VARYING MOUNTS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS
STORMS APPROACH TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
THREAT. SOME RUNS HAVE HAD CAPE NEAR OR ABOVE 4K J/KG COMBINED
WITH SUPPORTIVE SHEAR, BUT THE PARAMETERS ARE NOT CONSISTENT. A
BLENDED SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS TO
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NNW IS ABOUT 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT, WITH
ACTIVITY THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER, EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL IN WOULD BRING IT INTO THE NORTHERN END OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 9 PM SHOULD THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
EVEN THOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING, WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WE MOVE
INTO THE DAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST, ITS COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY AND THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KY AROUND MID DAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING AT MID LEVELS
MAY LIMIT EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO ENTRAINMENT INTO CONVECTIVE
CURRENTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AND
MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP SHOULD END AT THAT POINT. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION THEN LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NEW AIR MASS
ARRIVES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 608 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MEANDER WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WITH RIDGING DOMINATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. BY THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PIVOTING A RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER
EAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, REINFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WE COME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RETURN OF MORE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN ON LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETREATING
TO THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHILE BROADER
VALLEYS AND RIDGES STAY CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. MODEST 500
MB HEIGHT RISES AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
BACK INTO OUR AREA, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
TROUGHING RETURNS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALOFT.
AGAIN, POPS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
FORTUNATELY, LREF MEAN PWATS ARE ONLY PEAKING IN THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE VERSUS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, KEEPING ANY
HYDRO THREATS MORE SUPPRESSED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
WITH ONLY SOME VERY SPARSE MVFR CEILINGS WHICH WERE DISAPPEARING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST WELL INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW THESE STORMS WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME AS THEY APPROACH. A
TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR CONDITIONS WAS USED IN THE TAFS DURING WHAT
LOOKED LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THESE STORMS, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. BEHIND THESE STORMS, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE TENTATIVELY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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