944
FXUS63 KJKL 302326
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
726 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A QUIETER NIGHT, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TOMORROW.
- THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT AN INCREASINGLY WARM, MOIST AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S, AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
- AFTER A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE YIELDS ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MINOR INCREASES IN SKY COVER WERE MADE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
COMPARED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST, BUT OVERALL RESULTS IN NO
CHANGES TO THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RETURN FLOW IS PUMPING A SEASONABLY
WARM, MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED IN BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS AND A BROAD SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH A ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
ALOFT, THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW, FAVORING
EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING AND RELATIVELY HIGHER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
READINGS. GUIDANCE RESOLVES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE NORTH TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING.
THAT IMPULSE SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT GIVEN THE TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE, THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AND THE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATEST IF THE ACTIVITY ALIGNS WITH THE DIURNAL WARMING CYCLE.
SPEAKING OF WHICH, RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK OBSERVED OUTSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET AS DRIER AIR
CREEPS INTO THE COLUMN. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE CONVENTIONALLY COOLER SHELTERED AND SHADED VALLEY
LOCALES, WHEREAS RIDGETOPS WILL STAY RELATIVELY WARMER. THE BASELINE
NBM GUIDANCE WAS ACCORDINGLY EDITED TO WHERE VALLEYS COOL INTO THE
50S AND RIDGETOPS REMAIN CLOSER TO 60, ALTHOUGH A FEW READINGS IN
THE 40S CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PIECES OF MOS
GUIDANCE REFLECT THIS NOTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COMPLETELY CLEARED
SKIES WAS TOO LOW TO MAKE THAT DRASTIC OF AN EDIT.
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS FORECAST TO MIX OUT TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH BUFKIT (GFS, NAM) AND THE MEAN HREF DATA SUGGEST THAT WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST OF I-75 AND IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THE PROBABILISTIC
HREF DATA MIRRORS THIS IDEA, WITH WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR 30+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THAT INVERSION MIXES OUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY
RECOVER INTO THE 70S AND THEN CLIMB TOWARDS THE 80S. THIS EASILY
EXCEEDS THE MEAN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES RESOLVED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDING DATA SOURCES, AND A DIURNAL CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING. THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE CLOUDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
SOURCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED TOMORROW. ONCE THAT
ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW, THE PARENT SYNOPTICS WILL
FAVOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS. ONCE AGAIN, THE
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIDGE-VALLEYS SPLITS IS CURRENTLY LIMITED IN THE
GRIDS RELATIVE TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOS GUIDANCE, AS CLOUD COVER
STREAMING OFF OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM MAY REACH THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS, WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW, AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE FIRST BOUT
OF POTENTIAL RAIN COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LEANER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. THAT SAID, THE CHANCES OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY IS
GENERALLY 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND THIS SPEAKS TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION THESE POPS ACTUALLY REPRESENT.
PAST THIS, THE ACTIVE PATTERN ROLLS ON WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE DRIER DAY OF ALL OF
THESE DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY, WITH NBM POPS CAPPED AROUND THE THE 30
PERCENT MARK. THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND FINALLY
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE BETTER
FORCING FOR THE PERIOD, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERALL THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH CHANCES OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH TOTAL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO MONDAY AT AROUND 50
PERCENT IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST, BUT CLOSER TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS OUR
BLUEGRASS. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PATTERN AND
THEREFORE SOME OF THIS MIGHT OVER-PERFORM IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS.
THE WARM SECTOR PATTERN WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 5-7 KFT
RANGE IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARER SKIES
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING, BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LLWS, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS
REACHING THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN TAF SITES
SUCH AS KSYM, KIOB, AND KSME. THOSE WINDS WILL MIX OUT TOMORROW
MORNING, LEADING TO RENEWED GUSTINESS AND SUFFICIENT DIURNAL
HEATING FOR A DIURNAL CU FIELD TO DEVELOP.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC
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