555
FXUS63 KJKL 250027
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM BRINGS SIGNIFICANT, IMPACTFUL SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
- BITTER COLD WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
AS OF 19Z, LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS JACKSON, KY
AND AREAS SOUTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS FROM THE WELL
ADVERTISED WINTER STORM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST TRENDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FURTHER
NORTH, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED
HEAVIEST AXIS. THAT SAID, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL FORECASTED
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH AREAS FROM POWELL OVER TO
MORGAN AND NORTH CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THREE-TENTHS AND SIX-TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE
AREA FROM ESTILL OVER TO JOHNSON, EXTENDING SOUTH TO PULASKI AND
OVER TO PIKE CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
LASTLY, WAYNE OVER TO LETCHER CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL,
AND BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT CURRENT, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THIS MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT, AS THE "WARM-NOSE"
OF AIR HAS YET TO WORK INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT, OR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING, LIKELY BEING IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. AS SOMEWHAT MENTIONED
EARLIER, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ANYTIME AFTER 7-8 PM IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE I-64
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH HIGHS FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH OF I-64, TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE STATELINE WITH TENNESSEE AND
VIRGINA. AS SUCH THIS WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AROUND 7-8 PM, COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S FURTHER EAST. BY MONDAY MORNING
AREA WIDE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES,
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING, BEING SNOW. WITH RAIN EXPECTED
FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE RAPID COOLING OF TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT, WET ROADS COULD LEAD TO RE-FREEZING OR SLICK SPOTS COME
MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 5 BELOW ZERO FROM
WAYNE UP TO FLEMING COUNTY, INCLUDING ROWAN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES GRADUALLY WIND DOWN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE EAST IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS (BIG SANDY BASIN). THE MAJOR WEATHER IMPACT DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE THE COLD, HOWEVER, WITH LOW SINGLE-DIGIT READINGS
BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH AS LOW AS 20 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT GRAZES THE AREA, WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S, WITH RENEWED FLURRY AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES PARTICULARLY WITHIN
THE FAVORED COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE REGION IN THE BIG SANDY BASIN.
ANOTHER STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW AND THUS MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES.
EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A REFRESH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE, RESULTING IN A LONG SPELL OF CONTINUED SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AROUND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A POTENTIAL GRADUAL MODERATING TREND INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WAS ONGOING IN MOST PLACES. IT WAS MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW, BUT IT WAS CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
NEAR THE TN BORDER.
A DETERIORATION TO MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS (OR WORSE) IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH THE POOR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THE MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD TONIGHT, PROBABLY ALL THE WAY
TO FLEMING COUNTY (NORTH OF KSYM) BY DAWN. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KY BY DAWN AND
THEN PROGRESSS NORTH TO NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO SWITCH TO WINTERY
FORMS AGAIN FROM NW TO SE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MUCH
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058-059-068-069-079-083.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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