236
FXUS63 KJKL 101830 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS,
POTENTIALLY NEARING AN INCH, FOUND IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND EVEN A SQUALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING THROUGH
KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO PUSH THE CURRENT BOUT OF RAIN SHOWERS
EAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE STATE, THOUGH ANOTHER FRONT WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND IT FOR MORE SHOWERS - GUSTY AT TIMES - IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
MILD - RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S IN THE REST
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AMID MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE ON PAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT ALSO TO FINE TUNE
THE POPS AND LULL IN THE PCPN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA CURRENT
RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS
AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE TEMPORARILY FROM WEST-TO-EAST BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1
PM BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
ANOTHER DAMP AND MILD MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH OF
I-64 TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTHEAST, WHILE REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF TENNESSEE.
THIS RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WESTERN MARYLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOTED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS, MINNESOTA, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO IOWA THEN EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
INTO MONTANA. LOOKING ALOFT, A 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A
POTENT VORT MAX OVER MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER POTENT
VORT LOBE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS WILL PHASE INTO A DEEP TROUGH WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN
~515 DAM LOW RIDING DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD
TO OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON, TAKING THE WAVERING
BOUNDARY WITH IT. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
PIVOTING AROUND THE NORTHERN LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING SHOWERS/RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THAT COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (~BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z). BY THE TIME THE
SECOND FRONT ARRIVES, THE COLUMN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
OR ALL SNOW. FURTHERMORE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 750 HPA AND STRONG LOW-
LEVEL FLOW (30-35 KTS @ 850 HPA) WITH THAT SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAP AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOW A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
SQUALL SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THAT BOUNDARY. WITH
ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED; HOWEVER, THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SUDDEN AND
SIGNIFICANT, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
ONCE THAT SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING TO BETWEEN -11 AND -14C AT 850 HPA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE ONGOING CAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LESS ORGANIZED SQUALLS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER,
WHICH REACHES BETWEEN 2 AND 6 IN THE NAM12 AND RAP13. AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION CEASES, THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST OF
THE AREA, YIELDING TO RAPID HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
AND SNOW SHOWERS, GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, SHOWERS (80-100% CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR MOST OF TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT WITH A LIKELY LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A HEAVIER
SQUALL REACHING THE BLUEGRASS AROUND 4 AM AND SINKING SOUTHEAST TO
THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER BY 8 AM. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING. IT WILL BE BREEZY (WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH) AND MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED ~515 DAM
PARENT LOW NEAR MONTREAL, QUEBEC, WITH A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING IS NOTED OVER TEXAS WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REFLECTION CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS.
WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT HIGH THEN SINKS SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
POTENT REINFORCING 500HPA VORT ENERGY SINKS OUT OF NORTHERN
CANADA, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISPARITY AS TO HOW COLD THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE (10-11C LREF 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD AT 850 HPA), AS WELL AS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR A
MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES YIELDING MORE SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER SCENARIOS ARE REALIZED.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, TEMPERATURES START ON A SEASONABLY COLD
NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
10S TO MID 20S. FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND FREEZING. BRIEFLY DRIER WEATHER AND SOME
TEMPERATURE MODERATION FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
FOR THE MOST PART THE TAF TERMINALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. THIS LULL WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED, ATTENDING A COLD
FRONT, CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z. MAINLY MVFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF CLEARING DURING THAT OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW
SQUALLS AND TIMES OF LOW VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT STAYING BRISK AND BLUSTERY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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