140  
FXUS63 KJKL 122355  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
755 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
 
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WED, THEN  
MODERATE TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THU AND FRI - BACK  
CLOSER TO NORMAL FROM SAT THROUGH MON.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025  
 
A LARGE, SLOW MOVING, CLOSED, UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ITS LONG, SPIRALED INFLOW  
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FLOWING OVER EAST KY, RESULTING IN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA. SOMEWHAT DRIER MID/UPPER  
LEVEL AIR IS WRAPPING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SYSTEM, AND  
THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO CUT OFF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP, WITH THIS  
DRYING TREND NOW ENTERING THE JKL FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST  
SOUTHWEST.  
 
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT FOR THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH THE  
SHORT TERM. WHERE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST, A MODEL BLEND  
WILL BE USED TO HEDGE THE UNCERTAINTIES. THE UPPER LOW CENTER  
WILL CRAWL NORTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF OH BY THE END OF TUESDAY  
NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, ITS DIMINISHING DRY SLOT WILL PROGRESS  
ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP  
TO TAPER OFF, ESPECIALLY AS WHATEVER WEAK INSTABILITY THERE IS  
GETS WEAKER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSOLATION.  
 
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL MOSTLY BE REFILLED IN WITH  
MOISTURE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND WITH DIURNAL WARMING  
DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DIMINISHING  
TREND WITH LOSS OF HEATING ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025  
 
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY  
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF  
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE OPENING OF A BROAD TROUGH  
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO  
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IS UPSTREAM OF  
RIDGING SLIDING EAST AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A SHARP TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE  
UPPER MIDWEST ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR  
THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SUITE IS QUICKER, STRONGER, AND FURTHER NORTH  
WITH THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF'S OPERATIONAL AND  
ENSEMBLE RUNS. AS THIS LARGE WAVE PASSES IT WILL BRING 5H HEIGHT  
FALLS TO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH A BRUSH BY OF ITS MID LEVEL ENERGY  
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, BROAD TROUGHING WILL  
HOLD FORTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND SOUTH  
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE RIDGING IS PARKED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA.  
BETWEEN THESE DOMINANT FEATURES, MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL WORK  
WEST TO EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WHILE CARRYING PERIODIC IMPULSES.  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE GULF RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITS  
PRESENCE IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PUSH TOWARD KENTUCKY. THIS BRINGS  
RISING 5H HEIGHTS TO THE JKL CWA ALONG WITH NORTHWEST MID LEVEL  
FLOW AND JUST SOME WEAK IMPULSES UNTIL PERHAPS LATER MONDAY. THE  
MODEL SPREAD SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT WITH  
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THROUGH THE PERIOD - MAINLY TO INCLUDE  
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING BASED TERRAIN DISTINCTION IN TEMPERATURES  
AT NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DAMP START TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF  
THE FORECAST AS A STACKED AND WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. LIMITED DRYING WILL FOLLOW THAT  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING  
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY SEND A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO  
THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY. A CONCERN WILL BE FOR MORE ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION THAT NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST UPPER  
SUPPORT PASS BY TO THE NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM'S COLD  
FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR  
ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS KEEPING THE POPS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE DISTINCT DRYING  
DOES FOLLOW FOR LATE THAT DAY AND AT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
MORE OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT THAT NIGHT AND AGAIN  
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE  
ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN HAVE CARRIED A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND - BUT LOWEST THREAT AND BEST CHANCES FOR A DRY AFTERNOON  
WILL BE ON SUNDAY. LIKEWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LARGER  
POTENTIAL SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRIER SCENARIO  
FAVORING THE HIGHER HIGHS.  
 
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF  
ADDING TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS - DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE NBM  
SOLUTION GIVEN THE FAIRLY SIMILAR MODEL CLUSTERS AND NET RESULTS  
FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025  
 
CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT TAF ISSUANCE, RANGING FROM VFR IN  
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN DRIER, SUCH AS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE  
CUMBERLAND AREAS, DOWN TO LIFR WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN  
PERSISTENT, INCLUDING THE UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AROUND  
HARLAN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE POORER FLYING CONDITIONS  
WHEN THEY OCCUR, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE  
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THE OVERNIGHT  
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE, ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING COULD  
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SME AND  
LOZ WHERE AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AND BR HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED;  
HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH LOWER AND MORE EXTENSIVE  
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, SHOULD GREATER CLEARING MATERIALIZE.  
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR RENEWED  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED BUT TEMPORARY  
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...HAL  
LONG TERM...GREIF  
AVIATION...GEERTSON  
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