296
FXUS63 KJKL 151151
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
751 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- SOME OF THE STORMS COULD ARRIVE AS ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WHERE STORMS ARE MOST PERSISTENT,
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (105F +) THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A WARM AND MUGGY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THERMOMETERS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TENTACLES OF FOG EXTENDING THROUGH MANY OF THE RIVER VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER, MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MOST PLACES HAVE HAD
QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS WELL, EXCEPT ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
AND US-460 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOTED EARLIER. THIS CONVECTION OCCURRED ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC WESTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE JKL CWA TO ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF ST. LOUIS, MO. LOOKING
ALOFT, WNW FLOW PERSISTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM OF A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE UPSTREAM REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS AN ONGOING MCS, ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 HPA
VORTICITY MAX RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA TO ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS EAST AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS, CAMS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE. THERE IS RELATIVELY BROAD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THAT THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
TO EASTERN TENNESSEE BY MID-AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH CAM SUPPORT IS
MIXED, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE REFS, THE POSITIONING OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FEATURE
WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR AN MCS OR AT LEAST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
TRACKING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND/OR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA EITHER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MANY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DCAPE VALUES THAT
EXCEED THE THRESHOLD FAVORED FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHILE PWATS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS AND DEEP WARM-LAYER RAIN PROCESSES
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND A LINGERING RISK
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
OVER NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, WHERE SPC AND WPC HAVE DELINEATED
SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
RESPECTIVELY. FARTHER SOUTHWEST, MORE FIRMLY UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING, THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION AND THE
OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE HOTTER, SUPPORTING HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (AT LEAST 105F) IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
CUMBERLAND. THIS WARRANTED HOISTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 15Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING, AND
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION TO
PULASKI COUNTY AS WELL. AN SPS FOR NEAR-ADVISORY HEAT INDICES WAS
ISSUED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE JKL CWA TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IF CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, ADDITIONAL
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BLUEGRASS, AND
DEEPER INTERIOR COALFIELD VALLEYS (PIKEVILLE, BOONEVILLE, JACKSON,
ETC.), COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
FOR TONIGHT, ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE
MID-OHIO VALLEY AND COULD MAINTAIN CONTINUED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA, AND POTENTIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ON SUNDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (TRACKING FROM NEAR
INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN THIS EVENING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY
EVENING) DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL BRING RISING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A HOT AND HUMID SATURDAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F IN MOST LOCATIONS
AND IN THE LOWER 90S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO
105F ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH READINGS LOCALLY RISING TO
NEAR 107F ADJACENT TO LAKE CUMBERLAND. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A RISK
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, WITH
GREATER COVERAGE GENERALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD THEN LINGER INTO TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA IS FAVORED TO BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE, WARM, AND
MUGGY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE HOTTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WHILE HEAT INDICES
RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S. AFTER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY, THERE WILL BE A RENEWED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO OUR NORTH WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH US SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH OUR PWS RISING TO AROUND 2"
AGAIN. WITH THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP US MOSTLY DRY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWING UP IN SOME
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND RESULTS IN A BIT OF SPOTTY PRECIP. THE
NBM FORECAST IS DRY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PRECIP PERSIST IN LATER MODEL RUNS, A LOW POP COULD END UP IN
LATER FORECASTS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHOT AT PRECIP ARRIVES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CARVES OUT AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST, WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE MUGGINESS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TERMINALS AT THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH VALLEY FOG TO
BLAME FOR THE LOCALIZED SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS. THE VALLEY FOG WILL
LIFT/BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS; HOWEVER, DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND A LINGERING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD
TO A RENEWED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT EVEN BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE MID-TO-LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY
STRONGER AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ083.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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