496  
FXUS63 KJKL 162027  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS  
OF POST TROPICAL STORM BARRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT MID  
AFTERNOON, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) ACROSS THE AREA RANGES FROM  
1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PW WILL INCREASE TO 2.1  
TO 2.3 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. A LEADING SHORT WAVE  
MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE HEAVY RAIN INTO THE NDFD  
AND FORECAST WORDING FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON  
WEDNESDAY, AS THE MAIN REMNANTS OF BARRY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA. HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN MAINLY OVER  
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT  
THE COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER 5 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT STERLING  
HAS MEASURED 6.65 INCHES SINCE JULY 11. NOT SURPRISINGLY SOME OF  
THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY, AND ALSO  
OVER PARTS OF MCCREARY AND PULASKI COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE  
AREA HAS BEEN SPARED RECENT HEAVY RAINS, SO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE  
IS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. HOURLY GUIDANCE VALUES RANGE  
FROM VERY ISOLATED 1.3 INCH AMOUNTS TO MORE WIDESPREAD 2.3 INCH  
AMOUNTS. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AFTER COLLABORATION  
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE HELD OFF, CONSIDERING THE ISOLATED AND  
NON CONTIGUOUS NATURE OF THE LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WE ARE  
OBSERVING. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN  
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, AS STRONGER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL THEN ALLOW FOR  
TROUGHING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW  
ENGLAND REGIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS  
EVEN FURTHER AND SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES, BRINGING AT LEAST  
A TEMPORARY END TO THE 90 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS THE OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
 
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ON THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY  
EXIT OFF TO OUR EAST. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,  
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY, BESIDES SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
SHOWERS OR STORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE TERRAIN. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN  
TO BREAKDOWN ON SUNDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 90S FROM FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105  
DEGREES. LOWS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 70. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION  
THE HEAT CONCERNS IN THE HWO.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES STILL EVIDENT BETWEEN THE  
GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE,  
MAINTAINING CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO  
TREND COOLER, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT LOW  
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL  
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR  
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
IN THE NEAR TERM DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO UNORGANIZED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE  
ISOLATED THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY  
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL  
INTRODUCE THUNDER IN ALL BUT THE SJS TAF FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND KEEP FOG FORMATION TO A  
MINIMUM.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SBH  
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN  
AVIATION...SBH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page Main Text Page