039
FXUS63 KJKL 122105
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF WARM-UP WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURNING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO COLDER
WEATHER. REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW FOR MOST PLACES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANY SNOW TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING PAST THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLOUDFREE AND ALLOWED FOR A
DECENT WARM UP FROM QUITE CHILLY MORNING LOWS. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH - MOST PLACES,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT GENERAL TOUGHING ABOVE THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY WITH MODERATELY
SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS AND LIMITED ENERGY PACKETS
PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS PATTERN CHANGES A BIT THAT NIGHT,
THOUGH, WITH A RENEWED SURGE SOUTH OF TROUGHING AT 5H TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND MORE ENERGY POISED TO ENTER THE AREA BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A WEAKENING
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LATER THAT MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER FROM MIDWEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STILL SMALL SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS AGAIN SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING
POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO
INCORPORATE MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT,
THOUGH NOT AS COLD FOR MOST PLACES AS WE SAW THIS MORNING. WITH
RETURN FLOW ENGAGING ON THE RIDGES AND THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN BUT
CALM WINDS FOR THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER
LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT STARTING OFF
JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. THESE DIFFERENCES MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH EXPECTED THAT AFTERNOON) SETTING UP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THAT NIGHT. LOOK FOR
MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING BREEZY INTO THE NIGHT. A SLUG OF MOISTURE POOLS WITH
THE FRONT AND IS LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE AREA
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
- THOUGH THE LATEST NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS
AFTER THIS PERIOD.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
ADDING MORE TERRAIN BASED DISTINCTION INTO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS
TONIGHT - ALLOWING FOR THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. DID ALSO TWEAK THE NBM POPS PER THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION CAMS CONSENSUS WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
TRANSITIONAL WEATHER WILL OCCUR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET RESULTING IN RAIN. A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD
ALSO OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE NOT
COME INTO STRONG AGREEMENT YET ON TIMING OF DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR, BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST PLACES. A TRANSITION
FROM STRATIFORM PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE ARRIVING
COLDER AIR MASS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THE BEST SHOT AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS IN SOUTHEAST KY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT
FROM CONNECTION TO FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
BUT DETAILS ON THIS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE YET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EVENTUALLY GETS ERODED AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN EVEN IN
SOUTHEAST KY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES COLD.
IMPULSES/VORTICITY MAXES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH
REINFORCEMENTS OF COLDER AIR AND BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN OUR DAY TO
DAY WEATHER. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW LESS AGREEMENT (MORE
UNCERTAINTY) IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THAT
YOU LOOK. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES (MOST LIKELY
SNOW), BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT VERY HIGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AT THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ON TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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