092
FXUS63 KJKL 271140 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON SPARKING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TOWARDS DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF
THE STATE WHILE A COLD FRONT WORKS THIS WAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EARLIER THIS FRONT HAD A FEW STORM CLUSTERS AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE
LONG SINCE FADED OUT LEAVING BEHIND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE NOW DRIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
JKL CWA. THESE ARE HELPING TO EASE THE VALLEY FOG THERE, THOUGH
CLEARER PLACES TO THE SOUTH STILL HAVE SOME LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND RUNNING IN THE MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A BROAD 5H TROUGH HOLDING FORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN
CONTINUED NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH VARIOUS
IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH. THE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOTTOM OUT THROUGH KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MORE
CONCENTRATED BATCH OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AT MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE MODELS' SOLUTIONS
ALOFT, FOR THE MOST PART, UNADJUSTED NBM DATA WAS USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. HOWEVER, SOME ENHANCEMENTS WERE MADE TO SPOT HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CWA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE, POPS WERE MAINLY ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE THE LATEST
CAMS DATA FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY - ALONG WITH GENEROUS SMOOTHING OF
THE MODEL DETAIL ARTIFACTS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
MOISTURE, HUMIDITY, AND HEAT TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT AND A COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT, AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND INTO THE AFTERNOON -
LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH EVEN A FEW STORMS AROUND AT
NIGHT CONSIDERING THE BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN MANY DAYS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CAPE BUILDING UP
POSSIBLY ABOVE 3000 J/KG, HIGHER PW AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES, AND
DECENT BULK SHEAR IN PLACE FOR LATE AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FROM THE RAP FOR THE AREA ALSO INDICATE A
THREAT FOR HAIL - POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS QUARTERS - EXISTS. SPC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THIS CONCERN (ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS) WITH A MARGINAL RISK
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, LIKEWISE WPC IS
PAINTING A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN HERE SHOULD
TRAINING OCCURS. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THEN LINGERS
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST WHILE AREAS OF
FOG AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY, THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE BULK OF THE JKL CWA, BUT A STRAY
STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY JUST ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE TO MAKE SOME
SPOT TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS FOR POPS - DID INCLUDE THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS DATA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE MOST CURRENT MODEL DATA CONTINUES SUGGEST THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING PERIOD FOR KENTUCKY
FROM THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH LOW 90S ON TAP FOR HIGHS TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND FOR MORE OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
EASTERN KENTUCKY ENTERS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY SITUATED WITHIN THE
RESULTANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON
FRIDAY, BUT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ACTIVELY ADVECTING INTO THE COLUMN
ALOFT, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO YIELD ANY SUBSTANTIAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, A SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS (HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK. RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS AND RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION
IS PLAUSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS POST-FRONTAL
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DIURNALLY MODULATED, WITH
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUED
VALLEY FOG FORMATION AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND THOUGH, AS WINDS WILL VEER BACK TOWARDS A
MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACCORDINGLY TREND UP A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY BEFORE
APPROACHING THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE
COLLECTIVELY RESOLVES MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELED 850MB TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE 20
DEGREES CELSIUS IN PLACE FAVORS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE THE
LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS IS LIKELY A LITTLE BIT TOO WARM/MOIST.
DIURNALLY MIXED DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY UNDER-PERFORM NBM GUIDANCE AND
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS SHOULD PREVENT HEAT INDICES FROM
CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE IT WILL FEEL SEASONABLY HOT
OUTSIDE ON THESE TWO DAYS, HEAT HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BROADEN OUT BY MIDWEEK, WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE AROUND ITS FLATTENED
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE POPS RELATED TO THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE
ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES,
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION INCLUDED IN
TUESDAY'S FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AHEAD
OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THAT
SYSTEM'S SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS ARE MASKED BY THE INCREASE IN
MODEL SPREAD AT THAT TEMPORAL RANGE. DESPITE THAT UNCERTAINTY, THE
MIDWEEK INCREASE IN POPS SHOULD WORK TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
EARLY WEEK HEAT. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS WE TRANSITION FROM AUGUST INTO SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
ANY LINGERING FOG WILL CLAR OUT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 19Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT - GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS - FROM THE SOUTH TO
WEST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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