945
FXUS63 KJKL 071158 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
658 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75.
- THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZED, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO OR ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- IT WILL BE WARM AND GUSTY TODAY BEFORE THE STORMS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ANTICIPATED.
- THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL ARRIVES TO END THE WEEKEND.
- THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON
ABOVE 2000 FEET NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
HUDSON BAY VICINITY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/MS VALLEY VICINITY. A SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER WAS UPSTREAM FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS BC AND
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY AT
THIS POINT. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
IN THE UP OF MI VICINITY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE MID
MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND AFTER LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SOME AREAS HAVE BECOME MORE
MIXED ON RIDGETOPS AND IN THE MORE WESTERN LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURE SHAVING CLIMBED INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER, MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST HAVE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
30S WITH SOME AREAS STILL BELOW FREEZING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES
NORTH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT ONE
UPSTREAM NEARS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS
WELL. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO ONTARIO TODAY AND REACH QUEBEC
THIS EVENING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY AND KY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, GENERALLY AFTER
SUNSET. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME SHEAR TO WORK WITH BULK SHEAR
REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 TO 55KT OR MORE BUT CAPE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED, ON THE ORDER OF 200 TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE OR LESS PER RECENT
RAP RUNS. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME
HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO ROTATE
GENERALLY ALONG OR WEST OF I-75 COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL PERHAPS UP
TO QUARTER SIZE OR PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN UP. HOWEVER, STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE HAZARD. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED AS SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE
ONCE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LIFTS AND DISSIPATES.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE COLD FRONT PRECEDING IT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE ON SATURDAY IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE COMMONWEALTH LATE ON SATURDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER OVER
IA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD BE NEARING
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE OVER THE MID
MS VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING AND TRACKING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH WILL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM ROTATES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND COMMONWEALTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC LOW MEANWHILE SHOULD TRACK
INTO OH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS NORTH OF EASTERN KY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS FALL EXPECTED TO BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW 0C
AREAWIDE BEFORE SUNSET AND APPROACH -10C LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL PASSING
SHORTWAVES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET ELEVATION BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WITH ANY SHOWERS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE THE UPPER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT IN PARTICULAR WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE IN SOME GUIDANCE
SUCH AS RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS WHILE THE RECENT OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR LAKE MI AND TRACK IT INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND QPF. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES ABOVE 2000
FEET OR HIGHER. SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES IN HARLAN AND LETCHER
COUNTY AS WELL AS BELL COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE SOME IMPACTS FOR
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IF SNOW SHOWERS DO OCCUR IN THOSE
AREAS. A DUSTING OR LIGHT ACCUMULATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SCENARIO OR
SOMETHING AKIN TO THAT WERE TO VERIFY.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE AXIS OF THE
500 MB TROUGH MOVING EAST OF EASTERN KY. A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN KY ON MONDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW COLD. THE
RECENT ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS AS SLOWER MOVING THE AXIS OF THE 500
MB TROUGH TRACKING AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY ON MONDAY WHICH
WOULD BE A MORE SHOWERY, CLOUDIER, AND COLDER SCENARIO AS COMPARED
TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA IN RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS.
THE NBM IS MORE STRONGLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AT THAT TIME RANGE AND THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS HIGHER POPS OR A MORE SNOW SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MORE
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE OR LESS FLURRIES. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES WITH THE ECMWF SCENARIO. ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING AND/OR MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 OR 2500 FEET ELEVATION. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE 10TH OF
NOVEMBER ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR JACKSON AND LONDON.
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 35 IN MANY AREAS WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 30 DEGREE MARK
FOR MONDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER PATTER AND DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR
FLURRIES INTO MONDAY EVENING OR EVEN MONDAY NIGHT NEARER TO THE
VA AND WV BORDER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES. IF
CLEARING IS A BIT QUICKER THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE
EAST AND PERHAPS AREAWIDE WOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE 20 DEGREE MARK
IF NOT UPPER TEENS. AS OF NOW, THE MORE WESTERN LOCATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 20 WITH MID 20S FOR THE MORE EASTERN
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY UNDER 500 MB HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH
PRESSURE. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA AT MIDWEEK WITH A MOISTURE STARVED SFC COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN THE
EARLY WEEK AIRMASS. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
17Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS SOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR IS ANTICIPATED.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND
BEHIND IT, CEILINGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z. INITIALLY, SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS
AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z UNTIL THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
MIXES OUT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD
PICK UP THROUGH 15Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 10 TO 15KT WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30KT IN ADVANCE OF THE ANTICIPATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN TOWARD 00Z
AT WHICH POINT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE
FRONT PASSES AT 5 TO 10KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEINGS TO BUILD IN
LATE, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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