616  
FXUS63 KJKL 150203  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
1003 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO UPDATE CLOUD COVER AND ESTABLISH A BETTER  
HOUR TEMPERATURE CURVE. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND  
WILL SEND MINOR CHANGES TO NDFD.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION  
THIS EVENING AND THIS IS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM  
CONDITIONS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT  
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS PRESENTLY  
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA, FOG WILL BE  
FAIRLY LIMITED TONIGHT, MAINLY TO THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY  
LOCATIONS. WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND VERY DRY  
GROUND CONDITIONS, HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S  
TO NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.  
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS WITH  
RIDGE LOCATIONS HOLDING NEAR 60.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE UNDER A  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES,  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG WILL ALL BE ON  
TAP THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE MONDAY,  
WHEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.  
THIS MAY CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY, AND COUPLE WITH JUST ENOUGH  
LLVL MOISTURE, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS, TO PRODUCE A  
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT SINCE MULTIPLE MODELS  
ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOMETHING, AND THE SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING  
IT, WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS  
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY, WITH LOWS  
IN THE LOW 60S (AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 50S IN THE DEEPEST NE  
VALLEYS).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS  
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES, BUT  
SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER  
VALLEYS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DJ  
SHORT TERM...KAS  
LONG TERM...JMW  
AVIATION...DJ  
 
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