717
FXUS63 KJKL 311445 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT IS OVER.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL
EXTENDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING EAST INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SFC WAVE IS RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TO THIS
PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN
SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS IN ITS
WAKE. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS, BUT ALSO TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND
THUNDER. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS TO FOLLOW -
FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MADE MODIFICATIONS TO POPS AND POTTHUNDER GRIDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE PRIMARY MODIFICATION WAS
TO LOWER THE EXISTING POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH WHERE RADAR SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY, WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FROST, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST OF I-75.
AREA
THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. COOLER YET DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 60S
IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA TO START THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BUT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR THE AREA AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE MIDDLE TIER OF
COUNTIES AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AGAIN,
WIND APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT LARGE HAIL OR A SPIN-UP TORNADO. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY IS THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WITH FORECAST PWS OVER 1.20" IN CONJUNCTION WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL,
THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS
WILL MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY PROVIDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY, BUT AS THE PARENT LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE
ORIENTED EAST/WEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A POSITION WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD START PLACING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA IN A RISK FOR HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES. ALSO, AS THIS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE SPC HAS ADDED A DAY 4 15% RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY, THE WPC HAS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT AS THAT BOUNDARY STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE
WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK TO MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE. ALSO, SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO INCREASED THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD
WILL FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER-70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD SATURATE ENOUGH THAT BY ~13Z AND
AFTER, A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH -SHRA OR -DZ. ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ALSO
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO ~ 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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