527
FXUS63 KJKL 091817 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
117 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.00 INCH RAINFALL IS PROBABLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY, AND ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, TAPERING FROM
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM AND BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT
TIMES. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF RENEWED RAIN SHOWER CHANCE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER
RIDGETOPS AND ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST ARE
CERTAINLY COLDER IN THE MID 40S, BUT THAT IS STILL 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VARIABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MULTIPLE LINES OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DOWN INTO THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE WEATHER MAPS REVEAL THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM AN ~992 MB LOW NORTH OF MILWAUKEE, WI. LOOKING ALOFT TO 500
HPA, A RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
TROUGHING (COMPOSED OF A SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT) IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH.
THAT LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING, TAKING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WITH IT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY COALFIELDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AS THE LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
THIS MORNING (REACHING LAKE CUMBERLAND AND THE BLUEGRASS AFTER 6
AM AND FAR EASTERN PIKE COUNTY TOWARD NOON). THE STRONGEST CORE OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET (70+ KNOTS AT 850 HPA) SHOULD STAY
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT AT THAT LEVEL
WILL STILL BE 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
FORTUNATELY, LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF THIS
MOMENTUM FROM REACHING THE SURFACE, WITH PEAK RAP BUFKIT MIXED
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER GENERALLY 25 TO 30 KTS, EXCEPT BRIEFLY
APPROACHING 35 KTS IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES JUST BEFORE THE
PREFRONTAL SHOWER BANDS ARRIVE AND FURTHER STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EASILY DEPICTING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER WITH STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY,
BUT IN MOST CASES THE LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO BE TOO STABLE FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
BRIEFLY STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE OPEN TERRAIN WEST OF I-75. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL
COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES, THOUGH ANY HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MITIGATED BY ANTECEDENT DRIER SOILS AND LOW STREAMFLOWS. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UNDER 0.25 INCH NORTH OF I-64 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS (PINE MOUNTAIN
SOUTHEASTWARD). EVEN THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX, A REASONABLY HIGH-END
SOLUTION, STILL ONLY SHOWS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING -- VERY MANAGEABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
TEMPORARILY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PHASE AND AMPLIFY
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW NEAR/OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TEXAS TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRIEFLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL, BUT WITH
LOWER OVERALL THUNDER RISK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM RANGE FROM UNDER 0.25 NORTH OF I-64 TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
(BELL/HARLAN). EVEN UNDER HIGH-END SCENARIOS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCH OVER THE HARDEST HIT PARTS OF THOSE
COUNTIES, SO THE OVERALL FLOODING CONCERN REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER, LOOK FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY NEARING 40 MPH
OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING IN THE MID 60S TODAY, THEN DIPPING
BACK INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, PEAKING IN THE MID/UPPER
50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DEEP ~520 DAM
LOW NEAR/OVER WISCONSIN WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE ITS SURFACE LOW SPINS OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW TO ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; LREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALL TO -11 TO -12C BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 250 HPA POLAR JET BRIEFLY DIPS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS, SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
WOULD LIKELY BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION, THOUGH SOME BRIEF
SLUSHINESS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY EXCEED
THE PACE OF THE WARM PAVEMENT TO MELT THE SNOW. THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES. HEIGHTS ALOFT REBOUND SUNDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THOUGH BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THAT HIGH THEN SINKS SOUTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS POTENT REINFORCING VORT ENERGY SINKS OUT OF
NORTHERN CANADA, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTING A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISPARITY AS TO HOW INTENSE THE COLD AIR MIGHT BE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL AS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT
LAKES IN AN AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING, AND
PERHAPS EVEN A SNOW SQUALL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST. CLEARING
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR 50F OR BETTER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETREAT BACK TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
AT ISSUANCE TIME, SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY NEAR
OR EAST OF A LINE FROM A KSYM TO KSME LINE. PENDING THE INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND THE DEGREE OF SATURATION, MAINLY MVFR AND SOME
IFR WAS REPORTED AT ISSUANCE TIME, WHILE THERE WERE SOME REPORTS
OF VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME AT LEAST BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS BEHIND THAT, THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT ARE ALSO DECREASING. THUS COMPARED TO EARLIER, WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERALL, AND SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 10KT OR LESS
TO START THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 01Z AND LIGHT
BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST TO FOLLOW THAT THROUGH 06Z WITH THE
BOUNDARY STALLING IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. AFTER A GENERAL LULL IN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z,
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 06Z AND
AFTER, WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THOSE CHANCES
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR AND SOME INSTANCES OF
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD BACK NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
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