886
FXUS63 KJKL 120850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON
SATURDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB EXTENDED
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO PA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO TX. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANWHILE
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION
AND WAS ROTATING THROUGH A RATHER BROAD 500 MB TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR
AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, AND PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
CONVECTION HAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY AN OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED UPSTREAM HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS UPSTREAM FROM NEAR DAYTON TO
CINCINNATI TO WEST OF FRANKFORT AND THEN WEST INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF IL AND IN AND WESTERN KY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO MID ATLANTIC STATES TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO VA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KY, RECENT MESOANALYSIS HAS MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5C/KM AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20KT. CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR OR PRIOR TO
DAWN AND FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER AND/OR DEVELOPS ALONG THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL BE ELEVATED. MORE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF EASTERN KY WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME HEATING THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY HAVE THE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL WITH THE DEGREE OF MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT.
MUCAPE PER THE 06Z RAP MAY REACH THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH 1500 TO 2150 J/KG MLCAPE BUT ONLY 10 TO AT
MOST 20KT OF BULK SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
6C/KM OR LESS WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST IN THE 6.5
TO 8C/KM RANGE. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WHILE CAPE WILL BE MODEST AND
STORMS COULD BE SOMEWHAT PULSE TYPE AND/OR TEND TO REDEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOWS. SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SOME SMALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF
ANY LOCATIONS WERE TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS OR
TRAINING STORMS, HIGH WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
TODAY, WHILE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE THREATS ARE MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING
AND THE FRONT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEGINS TO STALL,
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY/COMMONWEALTH WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN TRENDS TO MORE OR LESS
ZONAL OR A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES
TO OH VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. PENDING WHERE
RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT
LEAST VALLEY FOG AND IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THAT. 00Z
HREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DRIER AIR NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINLY VALLEY FOG PATTERN. THIS FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT DID NOT GO WITH ANY DENSE FOG
JUST YET.
ON SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AT THE SURFACE,
WHILE ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES OR MCS TYPE ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO
THE OH VALLEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND OR
DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT OR SO AND GIVE WAY TO SEASONABLY
WARM HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS ACTIVITY COULD NEAR PARTS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL KY/LAKE
CUMBERLAND BEFORE SUNSET ON SATURDAY, THOUGH FOR NOW SATURDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED BY BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT AROUND ITS
BACKSIDE AND INTO THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, GIVING CREDENCE TO
THE NOTION THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE'S TIMING, THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING ITS AMPLITUDE. THAT LIMITS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AT THE CURRENT
MOMENT. SIMILAR THEMES LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING MODEL SPREAD MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST DETAILS DURING THE
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGES, BUT EACH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
REINFORCE THE OVERARCHING TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT. SUCH A PATTERN
FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON SATURDAY EVENING, ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION. IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION, A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONGER STORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH. SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MACHINE
LEARNING, ANALOG, AND AI-ENHANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA, BUT BY THE TIME ANY ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA, IT
WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY CYCLE. RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT REACH OUR LAKE CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE STORMS COULD BE MOVING INTO A STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY THEN. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR VALLEY LOCALES TO THERMALLY DECOUPLE AFTER
SUNSET. THIS WOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE ROOT,
AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE, MODEST RIDGE
VALLEY SPLITS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. ASSUMING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS DOESN'T
INTERRUPT THESE CLASSIC DIURNAL PROCESSES, EASTERN VALLEYS SHOULD
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF I-75,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S, AS THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST SKY COVER AND THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS RESOLVE ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MOSTLY-
ELEVATED CAPE BY THEN THOUGH, SO STORMS WOULD LIKELY SUCCUMB TO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH I-75. FURTHERMORE, THEY WILL LIKELY
BE OUTRUNNING THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT.
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE AXIS REACHES OUR PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EUROPEAN FAMILY OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUES TO RESOLVE A SHARPER ITERATION OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THAN ITS AMERICAN COUNTERPARTS, BUT BOTH AGREE IN
AN ARRIVAL TIME THAT OVERLAPS WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE
MAGNITUDE OF SAID HEATING WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT/AM ACTIVITY AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IT LEAVES BEHIND,
WHICH WILL THEN DETERMINE THE INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACING FOR ANY
FRONTALLY FORCED PM CONVECTION. MESOSCALE DETAILS LIKE THIS ARE HARD
TO DETERMINE AT THE CURRENT TEMPORAL RANGE, BUT BASED ON THE MEDIUM-
RANGE CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS
ON SUNDAY MAY BE IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE, AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE
RISK FOR HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EFFECTS
OF TODAY'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SOILS IN THE CUMBERLAND BASIN
BEFORE WE COMPLETELY WRITE THIS SYSTEM OFF.
THE AFOREMENTIONED POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL YIELD PLEASANT CONDITIONS
IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WE WILL BE WAKING
UP TO AM LOWS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. MEAN
PWATS IN THE LREF DATA GENERALLY DIP TO BELOW 1 INCH IN THIS TIME
FRAME, SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THESE FORECAST
THERMOMETER READINGS. IN OTHER WORDS, IT WILL FEEL FANTASTIC OUTSIDE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN SE KY ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WORKING
WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY STRAY DRY AND ENJOY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT SHOT AT AREA-WIDE RAIN CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL A THIRD, BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON
EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. AS DISCUSSED IN THE INTRODUCTORY
PARAGRAPH, THERE IS TOO MUCH COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO
HIGHLIGHT SENSIBLE WEATHER SPECIFICS THAT FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME
THOUGH, READERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THIS
PLEASANT SUMMERTIME WEATHER FORECAST!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
PERIOD BEGAN WHILE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER SECTIONS
OF OH INTO NORTHERN KY TO IN AND IL. VFR WAS REPORTED ACROSS
EASTERN KY AT ISSUANCE TIME WITH MAINLY HIGH OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD. VALLEY FOG HAD DEVELOPED GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
MTN PARKWAY ALONG THE RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND AREA LAKES WITH
REDUCTIONS LIKELY TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND SOME CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE IN THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. KSYM OR KIOB COULD BE AFFECTED, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A PROB30 AT THIS POINT AND TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED. PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER FOR CONVECTION TO
REACH KSYM AND KIOB BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD OCCUR AT THE
OTHER 3 TAF SITES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, CHANCES SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT TIMES WITH PEAK HEATING AND
A FEW HOURS OF PROB30S FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THESE TERMINALS WAS
USED MAINLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS DURING THAT PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS AT OR NEAR A TAF SITE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR LOWER; AS WELL AS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, 10KT
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THESE INCREASE TO NEAR 10KT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THAT PERIOD.
WINDS WILL TREND NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND THEN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH TO END THE PERIOD. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR
10KT FROM 18Z TO 00Z, WEAKENING TO END THE PERIOD. GUSTS OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS SHOULD BE 20KT OR LESS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
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