413
FXUS63 KJKL 030540 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION FOR LATE SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM LOADING IN
THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND CLEANING UP THE POP GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH A RAPID DROP-OFF OF ANY LINGERING SHOWER
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNSET FROM PIKE THROUGH
LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THIS VORT MAX WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH RAPIDLY RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT
IS HOW WIDESPREAD FOG MIGHT BE, WITH THE NAMNEST QUITE AGGRESSIVE
UNDER INCREASINGLY EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHILE MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG IS CONTAINED IN THE SHELTERED
RIVER VALLEYS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS,
WITH PATCHY FOG OTHERWISE, BUT A MORE AGGRESSIVE FOG FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEYS MAY BE NECESSARY WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TRENDING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. FOG IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING,
AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S, AND REMAIN
CLOSE TO THAT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO A
FEW LOWER 80S READINGS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SQUARELY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT SE CONUS RIDGING, BUT THAT
PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND. AS TROUGHING DIGS
INTO THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, THE ANTECEDENT
RIDGING GETS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. KENTUCKY LOOKS TO BE
POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS'S
APEX, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SPLIT/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REX BLOCK FEATURE
WILL HAVE EMERGED UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY THEN, THUS
ALLOWING THE WEATHER PATTERN TO STAGNATE HERE IN THE COMMONWEALTH.
THE EVOLUTION OF THAT BLOCK IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THE CURRENT
TEMPORAL RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THAN THEY WERE AT THE
BEGINNING.
THE INITIAL RIDGING PATTERN FAVORS EFFICIENT DIURNAL PROCESSES AND
WARM/DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO FOSTER EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING, WITH OVERNIGHT
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS PROBABLE. AFTER WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, SHELTERED AND SHADED VALLEYS SHOULD
COOL TO THE 50S AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN ANTECEDENT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, NOCTURNAL RADIATION FOG IS POISED TO DEVELOP
IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH A NEARBY WATER SOURCE. FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IT WAS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD THOUGH, AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS' WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CULMINATE IN DRYING
SOILS. ONCE THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY RISE TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
THE DAY PRIOR. FORECAST GUIDANCE COLLECTIVELY DEPICTS RISING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE 15-20 DEGREES
CELSIUS RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS, SURFACE WINDS WILL ADOPT
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPING AND DIURNAL
MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN OUT. BASELINE NBM
DATA SUGGESTS THAT SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD WARM INTO
THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
ALL OF THE ABOVE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THE RENEWED PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD COVER AND POPS TO THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BY SUNSET IN THE BLUEGRASS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE PARENT TROUGHING
ALOFT AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK. LIKEWISE, THE EARLY-
PERIOD DRYNESS WILL MITIGATE THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS. THE STAGNATION OF THE PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE. NO PARTICULAR
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUCH EARLY-
SUMMER WEATHER PATTERNS HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF WINDOW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT STEERS
CLEAR OF THE TAF TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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