044  
FXUS63 KJKL 191224 AAA  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
824 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 824 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
FRESHENED UP THE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING IN  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH AROUND A HALF INCH BEING  
REPORTED AT SOME PLACES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TARGET THESE  
SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING, AS AN 850 MB JET  
ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT, A DEEP TROUGH IS SITUATED FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES DOWN ACROSS JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
SHOWERS HAVE WORKED IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT, BUT DOWNSLOPED FLOW HAS DIMINISHED THIS ACTIVITY AS IT  
HAS COME EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS  
MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE  
ON TAP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT EDGES EAST TODAY, WITH A CUTOFF LOW  
EMERGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO  
STRENGTHEN AS IT PIVOTS UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO  
EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN WOBBLE ITS WAY INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS/NAM ARE DEEPER WITH THE LOW,  
WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER, AND THE GFS PARALLEL RUN IN THE  
MIDDLE. GIVEN THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES, HAVE STUCK WITH A GENERAL  
MODEL BLEND HERE.  
 
A SHOWERY 36 HOUR PERIOD IS AHEAD OF US, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT  
STALLS ACROSS AREA AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GENS UP ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY, IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. PERIODS OF  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. MOS POPS HAVE COME IN WITH CATEGORICAL  
NUMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE  
CONTINUOUSLY OCCURRING, THE OVERALL UPTICK SEEN HERE IS  
REASONABLE, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WE HAVE AVAILABLE.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH, TO THE LOW  
70S IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY  
AVAILABLE IN THE EAST TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER  
IN PLACE, WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF  
THUNDER. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH  
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S, WITH SOME WET  
SNOWFLAKES STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY A FEW  
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD, WITH AN AMPLIFIED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE  
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, SOME RESIDUAL RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THE  
AFTERNOON, DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED POPS TO  
FOLLOW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE  
QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40  
DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE DAY AS  
WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S,  
WITH VALLEYS COOLER THAN RIDGETOPS DUE TO CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES. A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL THEN BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH  
MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERABLY WARMER, IN THE  
UPPER 70S. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 80S, THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS  
A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COMMONWEALTH. MODEST  
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE STATE BY  
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN  
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE THE ADDED POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN  
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING, BUT MOSTLY ALONG THE  
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.  
 
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AND  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE EAST OF THE COMMONWEALTH.  
THE WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE RETURN FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES  
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL  
SOLUTIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WELL AS QPF BEGIN TO  
DIVERGE MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
THEREFORE, HAVE FOLLOWED THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS FOR POPS CLOSELY  
WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS. TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK THROUGH  
FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 824 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RELENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE  
PERIOD, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KSYM TO KJKL TO K1A6,  
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. NUMEROUS TO  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH THE MORE INTENSE  
SHOWERS BRINGING TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, THE  
FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, AS AN AREA OF  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL  
KEEP THE LOWERING CEILINGS FROM MIGRATING ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST,  
INCLUDING KSJS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST  
AND SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,  
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY,  
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR EAST THROUGH  
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING, BEFORE SUBSIDING.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN  
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN  
LONG TERM...CGAL  
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN  
 
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