153
FXUS63 KJKL 272015
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE NEW
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT PLATEAU AS OF LATE AFTERNOON,
PROVIDING US WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS. ALOFT, RIDGING WAS
ALSO PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
FLATTEN AS A COUPLE OF WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW ON ITS
NORTHWEST SIDE. THE FIRST WAVE PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING A BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE JKL FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS NORMALLY
WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT VALLEYS FROM COOLING MORE
EFFECTIVELY THAN SURROUNDING TERRAIN, BUT IT MAY SLIGHTLY INHIBIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN VALLEYS, AND IT'S BEEN RESTRAINED A BIT IN THE
FORECAST. THE CLOUDS WILL DEPART ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE RETURN OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE PREVALENT FOG WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN THE
LARGER, DEEPER VALLEYS ON MOST RECENT NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE REGION
POSITIONED BENEATH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, 500-MB HEIGHTS AROUND
582 DAM LIE WITHIN THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE,
HIGHLIGHTING THE UNSEASONABLE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTH- TO-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S,
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-OCTOBER NORMALS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, DRY AIR, AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE PRONOUNCED RIDGE-
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS. SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S - FAVORING PATCHY RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT - WHILE THERMAL BELT RIDGES COOL INTO THE UPPER
40S.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY), UPSTREAM CHANGES
BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS. TO OUR SOUTHWEST, THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE - CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC - WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO BEFORE
GETTING INGESTED INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET. FURTHER UPSTREAM, BROADER
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FEATURE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DIGGING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS
WESTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, IT WILL TAP THAT
INGESTED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND CHANNEL IT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SURGING
MOISTURE VALUES AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE MID-70S. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE AREA LATER FRIDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL MANAGE THE LOW-TO-MID 70S BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. AS
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SHOWER
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SUNDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A NOTICEABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE
NBM ENSEMBLE SPREAD FAVORS A MILDER OUTCOME WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 60S, WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE DROPS TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 10TH TO 2.5TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE - SUGGESTING HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO ESCAPE THE 50S. THIS DIFFERENCE COMES DOWN TO THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN INTO THE AREA. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS, WHILE A SLOWER ARRIVAL
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S.
MONDAY, ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY, BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S. TUESDAY, WITH MEAN PWATS AROUND 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES (EXCEEDING
THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE), SHOWER CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND PARENT
TROUGH AXIS PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, INCLUDING EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
UNDER BREEZY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL LAST INTO THE
NIGHT AREA WIDE. VALLEY FOG (WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT A CEILING OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AT THAT TIME WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE FOG MORE LIMITED THAN
ON OTHER RECENT NIGHTS. TAF SITES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED
BY THE FOG. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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