021
FXUS63 KJKL 152330
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES TO START THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FAVORS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO HOURLY FORECAST HAS BEEN BROUGHT INTO LINE WITH THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST (SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS).
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DEPART TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COLD
FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WEAK WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE TO OUR NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT'S LIKELY THAT
SOME OF THESE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY,
BUT IT'S QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MAKE IT, AND THERE IS A
POP GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST. THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE CAPE NEAR
3K J/KG MAY OCCUR IF THERE'S ENOUGH HEATING. SHEAR WILL ONLY BE
MODEST, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME PULSY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEY BE ABLE BREAK THROUGH A CAP IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HEATING IS LOST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE AREA IS
SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, FOLLOWING
A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST;
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL
THE STANDING RECORDS OF 87, 88, AND 88 AT JKL, AND 89, 90, AND 90 AT
LOZ FOR EACH RESPECTIVE DAY. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BECAUSE THESE DEW POINTS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR SUCH HEAT, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY
FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH HAS BEEN LARGELY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS TRANSITION
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
TAKES HOLD, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE STARTING WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S; THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS SHIFT BRINGS MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL TO ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, TOTAL QPF THROUGH
THE PERIOD IS LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
AMOUNT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ONLY MINIMAL RELIEF TO THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT.
IN SUMMARY, THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESEMBLE JULY AS
NEAR-RECORD HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT
ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINFALL
EVENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
RISK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS (INCLUDING KIOB AND
KSYM) FROM MID-MORNING ON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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