763  
FXUS63 KJKL 200550  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
150 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2021  
 
T AND TD OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO  
STARTED UPDATES WITH LATEST MODEL INFO THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CHANGES ARE INSIGNIFICANT.|  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
 
AGAIN THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING SO HAVE  
MAINLY JUST ADDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO THE T/TD GRIDS.  
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
 
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE AREA JUST A BIT  
EAST FROM LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN BASICALLY A  
PERSISTENT FORECAST WITH SIMILAR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND  
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DISTINCTIONS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT  
WILL LIKELY END UP A NOTCH HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT SPATIALLY  
QUITE SIMILAR. CURRENTLY READINGS ARE RUNNING FROM THE LOW 60S ON  
THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS,  
MEANWHILE, HAVE COME UP TO THE MID 40S ON THE HILLS AND THE LOW  
50S IN THE VALLEYS - AMID LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THE FORECAST BEING  
RIGHT ON TRACK HAVE SIMPLY INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS  
INTO THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND  
WEB SERVERS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
 
ALOFT, SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSIT THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE  
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND JUST INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE  
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT,  
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL JUST BE  
ENTERING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR OUR MOST  
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL  
TRANSIT EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT  
BE LOW OR THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR EAST FROM  
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WEATHER REMAINS DRY  
AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOMORROW, PUSHED  
ALONG BY A RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT  
FLOW. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A  
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
COULD DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (PREDAWN THURSDAY) ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
 
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL  
WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE, A COUPLE OF LOW  
PRESSURE WAVES AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD.  
AS THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WE  
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE  
AREA AS WELL. THE FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO LATE THURSDAY EVENING, DURING WHICH TIME WE WILL SEE OUR BEST  
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,  
COOLER AIR AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND IT. A  
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE  
MUCH LARGER PARENT TROUGH ALOFT. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH  
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MEAGER COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM,  
SO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ALL WE EXPECT AT THIS POINT.  
AFTER THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN, WE SHOULD SEE A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESS SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR A BIT, WITH DRY WEATHER ON TAP  
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME  
RAIN BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THAT THREE DAY PERIOD.  
 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON TAP. AFTER THE COLD  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT COMES IN  
WILL LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S  
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT, WE SHOULD  
SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER  
70S EACH DAY. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER  
50S THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON TAP  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK SHOULD  
SEE WARMER NIGHT TIME PERIODS, WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE LOW TO  
MID 50S FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2021  
 
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT  
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT AT TAF  
SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST, PICKING UP TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...HAL  
SHORT TERM...RAY  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...HAL  
 
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