170
FXUS63 KLMK 220528
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT MILDER AIR RETURNS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AROUND CHRISTMAS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 LIKELY FROM CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
* MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
FRONTAL PASSAGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND
SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES OF 45 TO 50 DEGREES, MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
VARIABLE MID AND UPPER SKY COVER WILL CONTINUE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TAKE HOLD TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH
THIS EVENING, AND THEN CENTER OVER THE MID APPALACHIANS SPINE BY
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD
TOWARD SUNRISE, MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED, ESPECIALLY
VALLEYS. THE END RESULT WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH SOME COLD LOWS IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY.
THERE WILL BE MUCH COLDER SPOTS THAT ARE MORE TYPICALLY DECOUPLED IN
THIS SCENARIO THAT WILL PROBABLY SETTLE MORE AROUND 20 DEGREES FOR A
LOW. AFTER ALL, DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS, SO FULLY
EXPECT A COLDER KY MESONET SITE OR TWO TO FIND VALUES THAT LOW,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY, OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKING HOLD BY AFTERNOON. WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AS A LOW LEVEL JET
SLOWLY RAMPS UP THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR A
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FROM 20 TO 00Z MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MILD HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT...
SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE ONGOING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65 BY SUNSET MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JETTING PROVIDES THE PROPER
INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WOULD BE CONSIDERED A HIGH POP, LOW QPF
TYPE OF EVENT WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE BEST OF THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER IT IS ONLY SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY, SO WILL KEEP
LINGERING CHANCE POPS IN HERE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KY, WHERE A
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY ARE ON THE DRY
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES IN THIS EARLY WEEK PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON
THE MILDER SIDE AS LOW IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S LOOK TO BE A
REASONABLE BET EACH NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60, BUT GIVEN HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
LIGHT RAINFALL, WONDERING IF A 10 TO 12 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE IS A BIT
TOO AGGRESSIVE?
CHRISTMAS EVE - CHRISTMAS NIGHT...
WE'LL BE KEEPING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
ACROSS THE AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO OUR NE ON CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EARLY WEEK WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS. LOW LEVEL JETTING FIRES UP AGAIN OVER TOP THIS
POLEWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT, AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT OR A LOT OF LIQUID. LIKELY
MORE OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAIN. BY LATER
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT, WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING
OUT OF THE NE CWA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY FOR THE CWA.
SHORTS AND FLIP FLOPS MIGHT BE A GOOD LAST MINUTE GIFT IDEA AS HIGHS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK TO RANGE IN THE 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREE RANGE.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...
WE'LL KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH MILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES STEPPING
DOWN TO MORE SEASONALLY NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR THANKS A SERIES OF PASSING COLD FRONTS, THE SECOND OF WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MORE NOTABLE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SPARKING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR REGION.
THE 21/12Z ECMWF, WHICH HAS OCCASIONALLY SHOWN A SLOWER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS COME BACK ON THIS PARTICULAR RUN. IN THIS
SCENARIO, A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A LINE
OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD COME INTO PLAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE KEEPING AN EYE ON UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH OF THAT SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER. CLEAN
PASSAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS OVERTAKING FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHERLY
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12 KT
LATER TODAY. A FEW 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE'LL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, A LOW STRATUS LAYER SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE. INITIALLY CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE
4-5 KFT, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
MOISTURE SETTLES. ALSO EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
TO BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING TO THE END OF THE SDF TAF
PERIOD. IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED FROM SHRA, AS RAIN RATES
WILL BE LIGHT. FINALLY, A MARGINALLY STRONG LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS FAIRLY MARGINAL, WILL
GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE IT JUST FOR A HEADS UP.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CSG
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