203
FXUS63 KLMK 221055
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S)
* THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
* KEEPING AN EYE ON EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
40-45KT LLJ IS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN IN RIGHT ALONG OUR
NORTHERN CWA BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SOME MAY LINGER INTO DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CWA AND CLIP INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS LATER ON
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR BUT MOST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL IN TODAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BE AROUND 20-25KTS. WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THE SETUP IS THERE FOR ANOTHER DAY
OF GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. WE COULD ALSO SEE DEWPOINTS DROP
DUE TO DRIER AIR ALSO MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED LOW 20S. WITH THE
CURRENT DRY CONDITION AND GUSTY WINDS, ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. IT WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND QUIET AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM,
OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS
MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S.
FRIDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AS WE GO INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG
WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE CANADIAN/CONUS
BORDER AROUND MT/ND. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR
WEST OVER THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STILL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY DELAY THE START OF
ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER, MORE
MOISTURE WILL STREAM AHEAD AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COUPLE
HUNDREDS J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
TIMING BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION
BUT THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS WE GO
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TREND IS THAT SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING A
BIT DRIER AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE
POTENTIAL SETUP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OVER
THE HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 500MB JET
STREAK WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PLACING
CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN IN THE RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION ALONG
WITH A STOUT LLJ. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT LESS BULLISH
WITH THE UPPER AIR FEATURES AND IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SFC LOW. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, THIS WOULD BE A
GOOD SETUP FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE SPC HAS PORTION OF OUR CWA IN A 15 PERCENT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON DAY 7. THIS AFD WILL BE PUBLISHED BEFORE
THE NEW EXTENDED OUTLOOK IS RELEASED BY THE SPC. WHILE A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH NOTING AND
KEEPING AN EYE ON WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WE HAVE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY
INTO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS HAS CREATED SOME BKN CIGS. THERE WERE ALSO
A FEW LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL SITES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR UP THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
LEADING TO SOME GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
SW WINDS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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