513
FXUS63 KLMK 191140
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MULTIPLE HOURS EACH DAY.
* LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
COUNTRY THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW ARE SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS SPREADING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MO AND IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PASS QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND
CENTRAL KY LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID
20S AT THE MOMENT, BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS STREAMING INTO THE MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TODAY, REACHING THE MID-SOUTH BY
TONIGHT.
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE THE COLD AND WIND.
DUE TO THAT COLD ARCTIC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ADD INSULT
TO INJURY TODAY, COMBINING WITH THE COLD TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IN FACT, WIND CHILLS WILL BRIEFLY DROP
TO NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHERN INDIANA BETWEEN 7 AM - NOON. EVEN DURING
THE HEART OF THE AFTERNOON, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 5-
15 DEGREES (PERHAPS NEAR 20 IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION).
TONIGHT, THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH BUT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5-11 DEGREES. A LIGHT WSW WIND AROUND
5 KTS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA (SOUTHEASTERN IN
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN KY) WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW
ZERO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -3 TO -6 ARE
LIKELY. SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS ILN AND JKL, WE ISSUED A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS MOST LIKELY TO SEE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AROUND -5.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ENE FROM THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AND LIGHT SW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S (NE) TO MID
30S (SW) TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND
WEAK SFC REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO STREAM FROM THE PLAINS ENE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OCCURS AS STRONG SFC
RIDGING SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MUCH STRONGER SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT RELATIVELY WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. OVERALL, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT
GREAT. BUT A NARROW PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QPF CONTINUES
TO LOOK QUITE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND IMPACTS DUE TO WINTER
WEATHER ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW
FREEZING BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW
WILL HELP PROVIDE COOL, DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT - THE WEEKEND...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US AS A ~1050
MB HIGH BUILDS SSE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EAST OVER THE SW US. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE WITH GOOD MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID-SOUTH, SOUTHEAST, AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THE FRIGID, DRY AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE, WHICH COULD PLACE CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER QPF FOOTPRINT. THAT SAID, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE (SNOW) WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE IMPACTS DUE TO HEAVY SNOW
EXCEEDS 30% FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. ADDITIONAL DETAILS, LIKE
TIMING AND QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, NEED ADDITIONAL TIME AND MODEL RUNS
TO COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-5 KFT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND
25 KT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ031>037-039>043-048-049.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR INZ079.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page