464
FXUS63 KLMK 312306
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
606 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY NEW YEAR'S DAY.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
* A QUIET WEATHER START TO 2026 WITH ONE SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
NW-TO-SE-ORIENTED JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST IS MOVING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS HOUR. A COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE UNDER THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OH, EASTERN IN, AND
NORTHEAST KY TONIGHT. OUR BLUEGRASS KY AND SE IN COUNTIES HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO CATCH A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS
A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES STILL ARE GOING TO BE
CLOSE FOR WHETHER THAT FALLS AS LIQUID OR WINTRY. NBM AND CONSSHORT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR OUR AREA SAVE FOR RIGHT
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN OUR BLUEGRASS AND SE IN COUNTIES...AFTER
THE BEST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.
HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT WE COULD GET SOME
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THAT FREEZING LINE MOVING IN
THE SAME AREA, WHERE COULD HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHES OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT TIME FRAME. FORTUNATELY TRAVEL IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMIZED WITH THE HOLIDAY AND NO EXPECTED MORNING RUSH
HOUR.
AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY, WE COULD GET SOME BREAKS IN BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE NORTH HALF, BUT SOUTHERN KY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE CLIPPER FRONT BRINGING THIS PRECIP WASHES
OUT BEFORE GETTING DOWN THERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING AT GLOBAL MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THEY GIVE ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO MEASURE
PRECIP UP IN THE LEX/SDF CORRIDOR AND 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE IN
SOUTHERN KY...RIGHT IN LINE WITH NBM CHANCES. PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THAT GRADIENT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AS THAT WAVE PASSES...SO AGAIN, WE'D
HAVE TO WATCH FOR PRECIP TYPES. QPF IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO SHOW ISSUES
YET, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL WATCH FOR A WARMUP FOR THE FIRST FULL WORK WEEK OF
2026. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
MONDAY AND BRING US TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT LOW 60S BY
MIDWEEK. A FEW MODELS BRING IN SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR MIDWEEK AS
WELL, BUT LIKE THE NBM SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AS A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CIGS LOOK TO RUN IN THE MVFR
RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE
SEEN THIS EVENING AT KSDF. SIDED CLOSER TO THE RAP/HRRR WINDS HERE
FOR THIS EVENING, BUT LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD 01/05Z
OR SO. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OHIO AND POINTS
NORTH/EAST. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NEAR KLEX LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL CHANCES LOOK TO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAF. WINDS WILL CYCLE TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM....RJS
AVIATION.....MJ
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