677
FXUS63 KLMK 160057
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
757 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DENSE FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT.
* MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS COMING WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 756 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS DECK SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE REGION, WITH CLEARING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER IN OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT,
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CLEARING AND SATURATED SOILS, THERE IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THE ONE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE HOW THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD IMPACT DENSE FOG
FORMATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. OTHERWISE, THERE
IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VIS AND DENSE FOG TOMORROW
MORNING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING HAS BEEN TO THE VIS GRIDS, WHICH THE LATEST
INTERNAL HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN
THE EARLIER RUNS. BECAUSE OF THIS, AND GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE,
THERE WAS GREAT COLLABORATION ON GETTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. OUR ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR 05-15Z.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
THE LAST OF THE RAIN IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS 1004 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE GULF STATES. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, REGIONAL OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF
MIST AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY. THESE PATCHES OF MIST
AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW, WITH LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO SCATTER ACROSS
CENTRAL IL AND IN. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
SCATTERING FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE N/NE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN, LEADING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME CALM IN MANY
LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING. WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
30S, WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY
MORNING. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL GET ENOUGH SFC HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIX OUT MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND, SO THIS COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND A NEAR-SFC INVERSION WILL FAVOR A CLASSIC
DENSE FOG SETUP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY PARKWAYS LESS LIKELY TO SEE DENSE FOG
MONDAY MORNING. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY YET, BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT
ONE WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT,
SO IT WILL FORTUNATELY BE A BIT TOO MILD FOR FREEZING FOG CONCERNS.
ON MONDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, FOG MAY LINGER IN SPOTS
UNTIL LATE MORNING AS SFC HEATING IS FINALLY ABLE TO MIX DRY AIR
DOWN TO THE GROUND. CURRENTLY CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW-TO-MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO END UP COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF FOG LINGERS UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS, AND AN OVERALL
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, CAUSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIXED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS STARTING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/HEIGHTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY, PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY INTO DEEP SW
FLOW, A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES. WE'LL SEE A STEADY
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN MANY AREAS BY WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SERIES OF TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A GLANCING BLOW FOR
THE OHIO VALLEY, AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS KY AND SOUTHERN IN WILL
BE LIMITED. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64), THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-/UPPER-MS VALLEY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH A WASHED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE EARLIER SHORTWAVE, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FAVORED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS THIS SYSTEM OCCLUDES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, IT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST, AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG-RANGE SEVERE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW-MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH INSTABILITY LOOKING LIKE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.
BECAUSE THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE
BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION, IT LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POSSIBLY STORMS FRIDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES VARY ON EXACTLY HOW
LONG THE RAIN/STORM THREAT LINGERS, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. EVENTUALLY, IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE
SEASONABLE/DRIER PATTERN, WITH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER FAVORED BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE LOW STRATUS DECK SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST. HOWEVER, THIS CLEARING WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-64
TERMINALS. EXPECT LIFR OR VLIFR RESTRICTIONS AS DENSE FOG SETTLES IN
BETWEEN 09-15Z. LESS CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT IMPACTS TO BWG AND RGA AS
THE LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE NIGHT OVER THOSE
AREAS, WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW DENSE THE FOG GETS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 10
AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>072.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 10
AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CJP
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