301
FXUS63 KLMK 112320
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
720 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS DEPARTS OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING,
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COMING
HOURS.
* AS SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE TONIGHT (40-60%) FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65.
* DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY FEATURES A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THAT LASTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER STRATUS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS IS
SLOWLY CREEPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE STILL ONGOING, ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST, SETTING UP A PERIOD OF CALM
CONDITIONS THAT WILL GO INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT, IN ADDITION TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN, CHANCES (40-60%) FOR DENSE FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED PLACES COULD REACH 90, WITH LREF OUTPUTTING 20-30% CHANCES
FOR HIGHS REACHING 90 FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL RETURN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD, BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
BY THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PARTS
OF THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, SETTING UP A
STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER THING TO MONITOR
WILL THE THE CONSIDERABLE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
FEATURES MOVES THROUGH. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP RESULT
IN COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FORECAST. THE MAIN FOCUS TEMPERATURE-
WISE WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 40 BOTH
NIGHTS. WHILE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH FOR SATURDAY MORNING (15-25%
FROM LATEST LREF), CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING
(50-70%) THAT ALSO INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST FROST OF
THE SEASON (30-50% CHANCE).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE MVFR LOW STRATUS DECK IS CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH HNB AND BWG ALREADY OBSERVING SKC.
EXPECT SDF TO CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, THOUGH LEX AND RGA WILL
LINGER IN MVFR OR IFR LATER INTO THE NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
LOW VIS FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SUB-LIFR CONDITIONS AT LEX AND RGA, BUT ALL TERMINALS COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME BR. VFR RETURNS TOMORROW MORNING AFTER FOG
DISSIPATES, LEADING TO A NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BEN
AVIATION...CJP
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