417
FXUS63 KLMK 161810
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
* TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
TODAY, A SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
MOISTURE IS COMBINING OVER THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BEING PUSHED BY ZONAL
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 1.1" NEAR CLINTON COUNTY TO AROUND 1.6"
CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA, AND AS SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO UPPER
80S. HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AS THAT
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES.
THIS MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MODEL SOUNDING
LOOK TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ELEVATED WITH A STABLE LAYER AT
THE SURFACE. THE TREAT OF STRONGER STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BECAUSE OF THIS.
THIS EVENING, AS SOME OF THE AREAS OF HIGHER PWATS WORK FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO THE
DIURNAL WARMING (DRIVEN BY STRONG WAA), SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WE COULD SEE POCKETS OF BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO AROUND 1,500
J/KG OF MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES REACHING CLOSER TO 2,000 J/KG. THIS
WILL HELP SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN THE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THESE
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING INTO THE MID-LEVELS HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN.
ANY THREAT OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO HEAT AND RECOVER BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EARLY
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64, SO THIS COULD LEAVE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY FOR AN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE WEST. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING EAST, SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONTINUED WAA WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
THE HEAT TO SET IN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOST OTHER GUIDANCE AND WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHT
TO THE MID 80S TO UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND CROSSING OVER INTO THE LOW
90S. WAA AT NIGHT WILL ALSO LIMIT COOLING TO THE MID 60S TO LOW TO
MID 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN. CONTINUED SOUTHERN
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CARRYING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S, ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA DUE TO THE PASSING OF THE
COLD FRONT. AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH THE MID 80S BEING REACHED IN AND AROUND CLINTON
COUNTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO CREEP UP INTO THE LOW 80S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON'S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FOR MOST PLACES, WITH THE NEXT
ROUND EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 21Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE VFR, BUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR COULD VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 0Z, THOUGH A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE IN RECENT GUIDANCE. OCCASIONAL INCREASED
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. SUNDAY WILL HAVE DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
SOUTHERLY GUSTS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BEN
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