667
FXUS63 KLMK 121737
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1237 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. 0.75-1.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
* DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY THROUGHOUT TODAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IMPACTFUL. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND HOVER AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND MAINLY
FROM THE NNW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOVE OUT BY THE NIGHT.
TONIGHT, THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD
CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AS LIQUID FROM MELTED SNOW REFREEZES.
WINDS WILL TAKE A SHIFT AND BECOME MAINLY EASTERLY, BUT WILL REMAIN
CALM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
ON FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SLIGHTLY,
THEREFORE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT,
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
FREEZING.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT...
DEEP TROUGHING WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE WEEK, REACHING
THE SE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND
TOUCHING 60.
SATURDAY EVENING, A LLJ WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH, HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY, ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS EVENT, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. THE CURRENT QPF FORECAST
HAS 0.5-0.75 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND 0.75-1.5 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THIS QPF FORECAST HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TAKE THIS AMOUNT OF WATER, BUT PONDING IN LOW AREAS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LOOKING AT RIVER ENSEMBLES, NONE OF OUR RIVERS
ARE FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD WITH THIS EVENT.
MONDAY - MID NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PASS TO THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A LLJ WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND
INTRODUCE A WAA REGIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM THE ENE WILL SHIFT SE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUD DECKS FROM VARYING
LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT AND DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page