023
FXUS63 KLMK 150121
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WITH MOST OF THE
REGION EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ALREADY, MANY COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS HOUR WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST. STILL CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE SW CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE PWATS ARE HIGHER AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY RESIDES.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE WHETHER WE SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA, AND ESPECIALLY SW
CWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER AND WILL MIX WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF AN
OTHERWISE QUIET EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WE STILL HAVE
A RESIDUAL CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING.
HERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE, THE DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (84-89) ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE DOWN IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR FROM E-TOWN SOUTH TOWARD BOWLING GREEN WHERE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
FOR TONIGHT, SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR WITH EVENING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER-MID 80S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A RISK
OF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY WEST OF THE I-165 CORRIDOR)
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS COINCIDENT WITH A
HIGHER PWAT AXIS. FOR NOW, PLAN ON COVERING THINGS WITH A SILENT
POP (<13%). HOWEVER, WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LATE AFTERNOON DATA TO SEE IF SOME SLIGHT/ISOLATED POPS WOULD BE
NEEDED IN THE EVENING UPDATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID
60S.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, OMEGA PATTERN ALOFT WILL SHIFT A BIT AS
A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER THE RIDGE HERE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO
THE LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR THIS PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A REX BLOCK
PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE
PART OF THE BLOCK. OFF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC, A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SEEN WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SPINNING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW ARE LIKELY TO MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SURFACE LOW OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WE'LL SEE A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP HERE
WITH THE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED DRY OUT OF SURFACE FUELS. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONGOING DRYNESS
HAS ALREADY LED TO BURN BANS IN SEVERAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY LATE WEEK, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO
HAVE A GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD END UP RATHER SCANT. THOUGH,
BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKELY BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD YIELD A MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM CHANCE.
DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS ARE ON FRIDAY WILL DETERMINE
AFTERNOON HIGHS. FOR NOW, CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP ON
SAT/SUN, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
LOOKING DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED REDEVELOP ACROSS CANADA ONCE AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
BLOCK, ANOTHER OMEGA PATTERN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THOUGH IT
MAY CENTERED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE EAST (EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI) WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN A BROAD TROUGH AXIS YIELDING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GIVEN THE DRY SPELL, WE COULD CERTAINLY USE
WHATEVER RAIN WE CAN GET FROM THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, AND EXPECTING
THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GO CALM
OR VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE E TONIGHT, ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS AT BWG, BUT NO
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE THAN A TEMPO 6 SM MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT TO STEADY ESE TO SE WINDS ON MONDAY WITH
ONLY A FEW VFR CLOUDS TO NOTE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
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