860
FXUS63 KLMK 262340
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS, SOME STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
* TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH COLDER
WEATHER LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION AS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE BELOW 850MB THAT A FEW POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD STILL OCCUR.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING, BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
OTHERWISE, SATURDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 60 TO 70 RANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
TWO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES, ONE COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA AND ANOTHER
DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF MT, WILL PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AMPLIFYING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, SMALLER FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CONGEAL INTO A ONE
ELONGATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TX, WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR, STRONG SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY RECORD
BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). EXPECT A WARM, BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE
20-30MPH RANGE. THERE'S ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXIST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT WIND
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH A 55-60KT LLJ IN RESPONSE TO A 150KT
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE. MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE STRONG SW FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PWATS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. WITH THAT BEING SAID, INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS WEAK WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE, SO EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A THIN, LONG LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE
REASONS.
NON-DIURMANL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH READINGS FALLING
INTO THE 30S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IT'LL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
RETREATING MOISTURE AND THE INCOMING COLD AIR AS TO WHETHER WE'LL
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND HIGHS IN THE
30S, MAYBE LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY, AND BACK IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
HAVE SEEN POCKETS OF VFR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING, THOUGH MVFR
CIGS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW
LEVELS, POCKETS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS THIS EVENING, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
DENSE FOG IN SOME AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE TAFS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS MEDIUM. VIS
AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY SUNDAY...
SUN, DEC 28TH
REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 70 (2021) | 72
LEX 67 (2021) | 71
BWG 72 (2021) | 76
FFT 69 (2021) | 71
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SRW
CLIMATE...CG
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