083
FXUS63 KLMK 152323
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY (~90% CONFIDENCE) THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* CLOUDS THICKEN FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE THOUGH RAIN CHANCES THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MORNING RAIN SHOWERS. (90% OF REMAINING
BELOW 0.1" IN RAINFALL).
* MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STORMS ON ACCOUNT OF PROLONGED
CLOUD COVER AND STRONG SE RIDGING.
* A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW-END THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
===== WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY =====
WE ARE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TODAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN A FEW PLACES. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN WITH STRONG
SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND AS A MAJOR TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST,
ALONG WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THERE
IS PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS A TRIGGER
TO INITIATE LIFT. THOUGH A VERY SMALL CHANCE (<10%), AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR NORTHERN IN COUNTIES, THOUGH MOST
LIKELY EVERYONE REMAINS DRY AND BAKING INTO THE 80S.
WITH A JET OVERHEAD, SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER
WITH HEIGHT TONIGHT ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO DECOUPLE FROM THESE
HIGHER WINDS ABOVE. OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME AFTER 7 AM EDT. A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH OUR CWA THOUGH WITH WEAKENING
INSTABILITY, FRONTOGENESIS, AND SHEAR, THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FALL APART AS IT CLOSES IN. HOW MUCH THIS LINE WEAKENS
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH A HIGH OVER THE SE US RELENTS, WITH LATEST
PROBABILITY CAM GUIDANCE KEEPING HIGH END RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER A
TENTH BY NOON TOMORROW (>90%).
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THE
WHOLE CWA, ACTING AS A LID TO ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO INITIATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM THOSE
CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL KEEP A
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. IF THIS BOUNDARY CAN STALL
LONG ENOUGH WITH THINNING CLOUDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
(INCREASING CAPE AND DEWPOINTS) FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, CONVECTION COULD OVERWHELM THE CAP AND INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS
BUT IS SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR. THE MOST LIMITING FACTOR TO STORMS
OR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AT LOW TO MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CAN LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. STILL,
SOME RAINFALL IS LIKELY, ALBEIT SMALL AMOUNTS WITH TOTALS MOST
LIKELY REMAINING UNDER 0.2" IN (90%). A FEW PLACES COULD SEE 0.5" IN
OF RAIN IF THE SE RIDGE CAN WEAKEN OR MOVE EAST SLIGHTLY, FORMING
MORE STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING (10%). SE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A
WARM SW FLOW FOR OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
===== BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY =====
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST
REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE A WAA REGIME, WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S BY THE AFTERNOON, AND
POTENTIALLY CHALLENGE SOME MAX TEMP RECORDS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST, WITH A LLJ OUT AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT,
AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
===== SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY =====
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ON
SATURDAY, WITH A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AN EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND APPROACHING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S,
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT HEATING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-
65 WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE I-75
CORRIDOR DUE TO A LONGER EXPOSURE TO WAA AND SUNSHINE BEFORE THE
FRONT AND PRECIP APPROACHES.
SPC MAINTAINS THE 15% RISK FOR SATURDAY MAINLY FOR I-64 AND NORTH,
INCLUDING THE LOUISVILLE AND LEXINGTON METROS. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
PRIMARILY DUE TO QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WE'LL BE ABLE TO REALIZE. THE GEFS AND GEPS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 60-
70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, A 40-50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 750 J/KG, AND A 25-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. HIGH
END AMOUNTS (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE) TOP OUT AROUND 1200-1300
J/KG. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE ON SHEAR PARAMETERS GIVEN THE LLJ
OVERHEAD, AND EXPECT TO SEE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 40-50KTS,
SUFFICIENT FOR WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH WILL SUPPORT LINEAR CONVECTION WITH A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. REGARDLESS, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE STRONG
FORCING IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED, SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL.
AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SEVERE RISK COULD BE
GREATER GIVEN MORE TIME FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO HELP DESTABILIZE OUR
ENVIRONMENT MORE. IF IT ARRIVES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, IT WILL SHUT
OFF OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLIER IN THE DAY, LEADING TO A
POTENTIALLY DRIER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED
ON FROPA TIMING, AND MAY NOT GAIN MUCH CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN THE CAMS RANGE.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH, OUR SFC
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE WARM SW FLOW TO A COOLER AND DRIER WNW
DIRECTION, ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. CAA WILL TAKE OVER,
LEADING TO TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
===== SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK =====
IN A POST-FRONAL REGIME BY SUNDAY, EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
DRIER WEATHER. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL DUE TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. MONDAY MORNING COULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION AS MORNING LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S. THE 100-MEMBER LREF
SUGGESTS A 40-50% CHANCE OF FAVORABLE FROST CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN
TO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE NIGHT WITH SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SW WINDS. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST. SHOWERS (MOVING NW TO SE) WILL MOVE IN AROUND 12Z WITH A LOWER
CLOUD DECK AT 5KFT. DURING RAIN SHOWERS, CEILINGS COULD BECOME MVFR
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER (5-6SM) VISIBILITY. BRIEF PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS
NEARING 20KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING SHOWERS. ONCE THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH BY TOMORROW EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES (SCT100) AND LIGHT WSW WINDS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CAL
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