568
FXUS63 KLMK 301125
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
625 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE MORNING.
* CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SE INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COLD AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN 850MB INVERSION WILL LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THE MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH SO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
WE WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR TODAY BUT CLOUDS COULD LINGER LATER INTO
THE MORNING BUT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THE LOW STRATUS APPROACHING THE IL/IN BORDER INTO FAR WESTERN KY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT AS
GUSTY AS TODAY, WE COULD SEE WINDS OUT OF THE WNW GUSTING TO 15-20
MPH. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 30S.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE
MAINLY CLOUD SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND A SW SURFACE WIND
OUR LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS CONTINUES PLACING THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
CLIPPERS SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MOST OF THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL STAY NORTH KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PART OF THE CWA SEEING LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. EVEN WITH THAT SAID, ACCUMULATION AT MOST
WOULD BE A DUSTING ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. POPS ARE IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH 30-40 PERCENT EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF
I-64. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL MAINLY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WITH LOWS INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY MORNING IN THE MID/UPPER
20S.
A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH COULD SPREAD MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT
FORECAST TREND AS OF THE 00Z RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUES TO LEAN TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL FOR EARLY JANUARY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE SOUTH AND MID/UPPER
40S TO THE NORTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW BUT THE UPPER
PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL AND MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM LOW STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA BEGINNING TO BREAK FROM WEST
TO EAST. GIVEN HOW STUBBORN THESE LOW STRATUS DECKS CAN BE, I AM
PROBABLY LEANING MORE PESSIMISTIC ON WHEN WE SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
AND CLEAR BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ONCE WE SEE THE CLEARING THE FORECAST
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE
CURRENT MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES, THE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE A
WNW WIND AROUND 10KTS. MORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH ANOTHER PASSING
SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT THOSE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
MORE MID-LEVEL FROM 5-10K FEET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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