091
FXUS63 KLMK 162013
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
AFTER A MORNING OF IMPRESSIVE FOG, WE'RE LEFT WITH JUST A THIN BAND
OF LOW STRATUS FROM ROUGHLY BARDSTOWN UP THROUGH NEW CASTLE. WHERE
SKIES CLEARED OUT FIRST, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S
WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 60. UNDER THE REMAINING LOW STRATUS
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOW-MID 40S. EXPECT THE REMAINING
STRATUS TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN THE
LONGEST, TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT WE'LL SEE
LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AND OUR TRADITIONAL GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SPOTS THAT CAN DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE
SUGGESTIVE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY WHERE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ONCE AGAIN. ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO BE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOW-LYING AREAS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MILDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.
BY WEDNESDAY, A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S IN THE EAST
WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO FEATURE RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A
CONTINUATION OF THE RETURN FLOW PATTERN. INITIALLY, SOUNDINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FROM A SEVERE
WEATHER STAND POINT. THERE IS GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE
HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER
MEAGER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN TN AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
KY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH
HERE AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WE'LL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
FRIDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER-MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. A 500 MB JET CORE LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM
ARIZONA NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY PLACING OUR REGION IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET AXIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
WELL INTO THE 50S AND A CORE OF 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS COULD MAKE IT
INTO FAR SE MO/W KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RATHER ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS. INSTABILITY HERE ISN'T ALL THAT GREAT, BUT WE MAY HAVE
500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH TO GET SOME CONVECTION GOING.
GIVEN THE THERMO/KINEMATIC SETUP, MULTI-CELLULAR TO SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH, THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES LOOKS TO BE OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS SE MO/W
KY. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE HERE AND SPC HAS US IN A DAY 4 OUTLOOK WHICH LOOKS
OK FOR THE TIME BEING. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE AGAIN FOCUSED OUT
TO OUR WEST, BUT THE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD PRODUCE A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM HERE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE
DATE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NW SECTIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR LOWS ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH A DRY PUNCH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
BE SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN
KY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, FORECAST CONFIDENCE SIGNIFICANTLY DROPS AS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD DEVELOPS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
EURO AND CANADIAN ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
KEEPING THINGS COLDER AND MORE DRY. ONLY THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME. THE NET BLEND HERE
IS FOR LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK COLDER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
DENSE FOG HAS MIXED OUT OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT SDF/LEX. LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY. OVERALL, IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THINGS WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING, BUT
WE COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO 1/2-1SM AT HNB/SDF/LEX AND PERHAPS
RGA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF A PATCHY FOG SET UP FOR KBWG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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