234
FXUS63 KLMK 050006
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
806 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE THREAT IS
DIMINISHING. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, AND COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH EXPECTED DUE TO THESE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
* CHILLY EASTER MORNING AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S ON SUNDAY. COLD NIGHTS AHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
IT IS WARM AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH SOME SUNSHINE TO OUR EAST, BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS FILLING IN FROM THE WEST AS A LINE OF SHOWERS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE NOTED
ON THE KY MESONET, WITH LOW 80S IN THE EAST DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT UPPER 60S TO THE WEST OF I-65 WHERE RAIN-COOLED
AIR AND CLOUDS HAVE KNOCKED DOWN TEMPS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE I-65 CORRIDOR, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THIS LINE HAS BEEN
SLOWLY LOSING INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY DUE TO A LACK
OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TO OUR EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN, AND THE CAPE AXIS HAS SORT OF BEEN OUTPACING THE PRECIP
SHIELD. THE LLJ CORE HAS MOVED NORTHEAST AND IS NOW OVER PARTS OF IN
AND OH, PROVIDING BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS, WHICH
ARE CAPABLE OF PULLING DOWN SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS, RESULTING IN
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 35-45MPH POSSIBLE.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWERS MORE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN WESTERN
TN, WHICH WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
EVENTUALLY SNEAK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER, LATEST CAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, THOUGH STILL PLENTY OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO POSE A WIND
THREAT. BESIDE THE LOW END SEVERE THREAT, PWATS ARE OBSERVED
REACHING UP TO 1.5-1.6" ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS, WHICH IS AT THE
TOP END OF SOUNDING CLIMO, AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE GETTING A STRONG MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE AREA,
SO EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE WITH THESE
DOWNPOURS. FORTUNATELY, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO LIMIT FLOODING ISSUES, BUT COULD SEE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS OR
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN OUR TYPICAL LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.
RAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD SEE IT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF I-65 AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT,
AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUR ENTIRE AREA BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING TOO, NOTED BY A
WIND SHIFT FROM SW FLOW TO COOLER NW DIRECTION. THIS FROPA WILL ALSO
USHER IN COOLER TEMPS, WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
MOST LIKELY END ANY CHANCES FOR BREAKING WARM MIN RECORDS FOR
ANOTHER DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S FOR TOMORROW MORNING. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY, THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S DUE TO THE CAA
REGIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
===== SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT =====
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS AROUND NORMAL IN THE 60S.
STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE MORNINGS WITH TEMPS COOL ENOUGH
FOR FROST POTENTIAL. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TEMPS
GET DOWN INTO THE 30S, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN, NORTH-CENTRAL KY, AND THE BLUEGRASS AREAS.
===== WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY =====
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO FEATURE TEMPS IN THE 30S, AND LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND
THE BLUEGRASS. HOWEVER, THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL, AND THE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST, WHICH WILL OPEN US UP TO WARMER RETURN
FLOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY, AND CLOSER TO 80 ON FRIDAY. WE'LL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE ONLY HINT OF PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE, WITH THE EURO AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT FOR RAIN MAY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. IN HEAVIER SHOWERS, TEMPO MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED, THOUGH RAIN
RATES SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR VFR VIS. ALONG THE FRONT,
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR RANGE, BEFORE
GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS
THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SW TO W/NW, WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
TOMORROW, A STRATOCU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-TO-
LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING DURING THE
EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. W/NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 KT WINDS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CSG
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