223
FXUS63 KLMK 260005
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED DRIZZLE POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.
* MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO
THE EAST. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 0.75" WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE DGZ, KEEPING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS NEARING THE OZARKS.
TONIGHT, SCATTERED POCKETS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT THAT BEGINS ENTERING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA AROUND 6Z AND MAKES IT THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE AROUND 12Z.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AS
THEY GUST TO BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THERE WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF
SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS QUICKLY BEGIN FALLING. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID-UPPER 40S.
TOMORROW, AS THE SYSTEM'S STACKED LOW PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY RETURN AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXPANDS EASTWARD, PUSHING INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL GENERATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE
LOW TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY, APPEAR TO BE THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK,
IF YOU DON'T MIND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
UPPER RIDING WILL CLEAR SKIES, BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NOT
PASSING THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST WILL ADVECT COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE
MID 30S AND LOW 40S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THE PASSING SURFACE
HIGH ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO EASE, ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PRETTY COOL SPOTS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BEFORE LIFTING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THEY DAY SATURDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ARRIVES IN THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS
TO PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS A LOT BETTER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY, AND A SHIFT IN THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION. CURRENT DATA
SUPPORTS ALL RAIN, BUT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST LIKELY KEEPS RAIN CHANCES TOO HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECTING A BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH MVFR
FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. WE'LL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY TONIGHT. WE'LL LIKELY SEE CIGS BOUNCE UP
TO VFR AND BACK TO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SHUT OFF THE LIGHT
PRECIP IN OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
TOMORROW, WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BEFORE THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH
WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CJP
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