603
FXUS63 KLMK 262018
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS OUR
SYSTEM FROM EARLIER TODAY RETREATS TO THE EAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FILLING IN OVER THE CWA, AS WELL AS RELATIVELY CALM WINDS,
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP
INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR CALM AND WARM CONDITIONS BOTH
DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GET UP INTO THE LOW 60S, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, AND SOME
AREAS CLOSE TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER REACHING 70.
THE STRETCH OF QUIET CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A FRONT BRINGING COOLER AIR FROM CANADA MOVES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTH AND SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD UNTIL IT STALLS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME PLACES IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THERE. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OVER KENTUCKY, A DECENT SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ONLY
GET UP INTO THE MID 40S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL GET INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL
WINTRY SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL OVERRUN COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, WHAT REMAINS UNKNOWN IS THAT DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN P-TYPES. THE CURRENT DISCREPANCY IS THE ECMWF IS WARMER,
WITH THE STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF
THE WINTRY P-TYPES NORTH OF THE CWA INTO CENTRAL IN. SCENARIO TWO IS
WITH THE GFS, THIS IS COLDER AS IT HAS THE COLD FRONT SAGGY FURTHER
SOUTHWARD, THIS WOULD BRING A SWATH OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST, RIGHT NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MORE OF A
WINTRY MIX UNTIL WE CAN IRON OUT THE DETAILS. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT WOULD
IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING BUT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF A WARM YET ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES GO FROM THE 40S ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST, LINGERING LOW STRATUS
AND EVEN SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE IS ONGOING FOR RGA AND IFR CIGS FOR
LEX/RGA, SHOULD START TO SEE THIS IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VFR AND CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER
TODAY AND CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THIS COULD BE A SETUP
THAT WE GET SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR
RGA/LEX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHER THAN THAT WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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