346
FXUS63 KLMK 052359
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
659 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FRIDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BREAK RECORDS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
AS A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS
OHIO, THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS COMING TO AN END. THIS HAS ALLOWED US TO DROP
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE WARM FRONT IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GULF
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.3-1.5", BUT WITH LESS FORCING,
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN
NATURE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
TOMORROW, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AS REMAINING SHOWERS PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BEGIN
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
SATURDAY, WITH A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW'S
TRAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE OZARKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1200 J/KG WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES ARE MORE STABLE AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS. BESIDES THUNDER SOME STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 20-25 MPH, PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH SOUTHERN
MOISTURE PUSHES PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (TIMING SLIGHTLY VARIED BY MODEL), A
SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE VERY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL DRAG A
LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE CWA. THIS COULD KNOCK HIGHS IN THE
70S DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HNB/SDF
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN. THIS IS WHERE WE
FIND MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH ONLY HNB HOLDING ON TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH DO THE
MVFR/IFR CIGS GET TO SDF AND WHILE WE HAVE SOME VERY ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER, WILL WE SEE AN IMPACT OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND
MENTIONED SHOWER AND EVEN A PERIOD OF STORMS FOR SDF BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.
ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BTN
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