096
FXUS63 KLMK 070506
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
106 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2023
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2023
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL IN, A BIT AHEAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF ROUGHLY
TWENTY DEGREES (MID 70S/MID 50S), DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SOME LIGHT
RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
BETTER CHANCES FOR A MORE WETTING RAIN WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNRISE
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST TUE JUN 6 2023
SMOKE/HAZE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HAD AN IMPACT ON LOCAL AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITIES TO SOME DEGREE. DESPITE THE SMOKE/HAZE AND OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH LIMITING SOLAR
INSOLATION, TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED QUITE A BIT FROM MORNING
LOWS (50S) WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THIS
HOUR (~1830Z). WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE STEADILY DECLINING OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE'LL SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE TOWARD
DAWN AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT, RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. THE BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOMORROW AS THE FRONT SINKS
TOWARD TENNESSEE. A LOT OF LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN
TOMORROW BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THOUGH OVERALL AMOUNTS (0.25-
0.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER) WON'T PUT A HUGE DENT IN THE RECENT
RAINFALL DEFICIT. STILL, WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET GIVEN HOW DRY
IT'S BEEN.
THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS TO A
MINIMUM TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID 70S IN
MOST SPOTS. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR POINTS NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2023
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
* DRY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES
THAT WILL HELP CREATE SOME CHANCES FOR CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
INSTABILITY OR AVAILABLE MOISTURE, SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND LIKELY WIDELY SCATTERED. TROUGH
BASE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING, EFFECTIVELY
ENDING ANY SPORADIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO BRING MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE WITH
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE MINIMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS
DOWN AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
BETTER SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH (MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, LOWER LEVEL
CAPE, WEAK SHEAR, VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA). CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD BRING SOME SHORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. THE UPPER
TROUGH ALSO APPEARS TO STAGNATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK,
WHICH EARLY INDICATIONS WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE FOR EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2023
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A WIND SHIFT LINE SEEN ON KLVX 88-D FROM NEAR KHNB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KSDF AND KLEX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OUT OF INDIANA. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY GO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS MAY
RESULT IN VSBYS GOING TO MVFR AS WELL IN THE 07/13-19Z TIME FRAME.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT KHNB/KSDF/KLEX, WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KBWG UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. IN THE AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NW TO THE NE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE.......JML
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....MCK
AVIATION.....MJ
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