751
FXUS63 KLMK 232000
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO A WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64, TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE
KY/TN BORDER.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AROUND CHRISTMAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD
WARM MIN TEMPS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
* MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HAVE BEEN OVERCAST TODAY, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS HELPED OUR SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
EVEN DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KY, BUT LITTLE TO NO LIQUID ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE KY/TN
BORDER, KEEPING AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT COULD END UP BEING QUITE TRICKY, AS THEY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF
CLOUDS NORTH OF I-64 COULD HELP DROP TEMPS EVEN MORE, AND WE COULD
END UP SEEING A 18-20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENRAL KY, TO UPPER
50S NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. LOW STRATUS WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE SFC
BOUNDARY TONIGHT, BUT COULD SEE SOME INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT TOO.
FOR TOMORROW, THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DRIER AIR IN PLACE TOMORROW, SO LESS CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP AND
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, TEMPS STILL LOOK TO VARY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S IN OUR NORTH, TO UPPER 60S
IN OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
===== CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT =====
WE REMAIN UNDER A PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR CHRISTMAS AND
FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING,
AS WE'LL SEE A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL JETTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH THE FRONT
SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN AND THE BLUEGRASS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN. POPS REMAIN RATHER HIGH
DESPITE THE LOW QPF, AND CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEPER CLOUD DEPTHS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A TOP 10
WARMEST CHRISTMAS ON RECORD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER FLOW REGIME FLATTENS OUT FOR FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WE'LL END UP MORE
IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY, AS THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITTING
A BIT MORE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. WAA PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSER TO
70. MORNING LOWS COULD VERY WELL END UP BREAKING WARM MIN RECORDS AS
WELL. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN THE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST YOU GO. DRIER WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
===== SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD, AND PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPS FOR SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S. WE'LL BE NEAR
OUR RECORD MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING US TO
BREAK ANY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO OUR WEST, WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND, INITIALLY AMPLIFYING THE
RIDGE FOR SATURDAY, BUT THEN EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD ON TIMING OF
PHASING, THOUGH STILL THINKING OF A MORE DELAYED PHASE THAT LEADS TO
A LESS AMPLIFIED ROUND OF PRECIP PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, THE NSSL MACHINE-LEARNING SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SUNDAY, SO ITS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS, SUNDAY SERVES AS ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WE COULD SEE A 40
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAY HIGHS TO MONDAY MORNING LOWS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS CIGS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS HNB THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THEM OUT INTO VFR BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR OR DROP TO IFR
TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, SOME CLEARING TO VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BWG. BWG HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF DROPPING DOWN
TO LIFR AS LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IMPACTS THEIR TAF.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO RESULT ACROSS THE REGION, SO SOME VIS
RESTRICTIONS MAY ARISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING ALL
THE WAY AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD, STARTING OFF FROM THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN FROM THE N TONIGHT, AND FROM THE E-SE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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