584
FXUS63 KLMK 072023
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 1 TO 2.5" OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY PARKWAYS.
* INFLUX OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY PERIOD BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC FRONT WHICH SUNK INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WASHED OUT. THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THE FRONT IS
A LINGERING NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CURRENT READINGS VARYING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND
SOUTHERN IN TO THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. OTHERWISE, A
RELATIVELY BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. INITIALLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND LIGHT NEAR SFC WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING NEAR-SFC MOISTURE, THINK AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE KY BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHEAST IN.
INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AND NEAR-SFC WINDS WEST OF I-65 SHOULD LIMIT
THE FOG POTENTIAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILDER OVER THESE LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL, A FAIRLY GOOD
SPREAD IN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, FROM THE MID 30S IN
THE COLDEST KY BLUEGRASS VALLEYS TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S WHERE WINDS
AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT QUICKLY FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE WILL LEAD TO FALLING
HEIGHTS AND PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW, CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. 20-25 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING GREATER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, THOUGH THE FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY GRADUAL IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS
IN PART TO WARM ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN SPITE OF
INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO THE
LOW 70S. BECAUSE THE FETCH OF DEEPER SATURATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF US TOMORROW, THINK THAT THE DAY SHOULD END UP BEING DRY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
OUR REGION WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH AXIS. A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (50-60 KNOTS) WILL
RESPOND BENEATH INTENSE MID TO UPPER LEVEL JETTING. THIS SETUP WILL
RESULT IN A MILD AND GUSTY WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A VERY STOUT H7 INVERSION BEFORE 06Z, THEN GRADUALLY ERODING WITH
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES TRYING TO BECOME LESS STABLE (STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL STABILITY) TOWARD SUNRISE. AS A RESULT, THINK THE BEST
OVERLAP BETWEEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE BETWEEN 09-18Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THAT LATTER PART OF THAT
TIME WINDOW ALSO FEATURES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES.
THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BETWEEN
06-18Z FRIDAY WITH CATEGORICAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE IN THAT WINDOW. OVERALL, STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE FROM BRIEF LINEAR FEATURES SPAWNING
A MESOVORTICE AND/OR ANY BOWING SEGMENT WITH A DESCENDING RIJ.
OVERALL, STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH OUR ABILITY TO REALIZE ANY REAL ML
CAPE VALUES, SO JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AND IT SILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR ANY ONE AREA. SPC CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THE DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK PLACED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY 3 DOES COVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, WHERE YOU COULD GET SOME VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP WHILE STILL OVERLAPPING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE COULD BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS A
BRIEF AND "WEAK" TORNADO.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE LOSE THE LLJ CORE TO THE NE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE NW CWA, AND
DIMINISHING SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. ANY LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BEFORE A
SECONDARY IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND WORKS SW
TO NE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO SPAWN SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OVER OUR AREA, WITH ANOTHER ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME
(HIGHER PWATS) SURGING THROUGH OUR AREA, AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANOTHER SMALL "WARM SECTOR" TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR SE CWA
WHERE A BRIEF NEAR SURFACE-BASED ENVIRONMENT COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
AROUND 09-15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE AS CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THIS "WARM SECTOR"
AND KEEP THE THREAT SOUTH OF US.
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START TO ADD UP ACROSS OUR SE. GIVEN
THE BEST FORCING AND OVERLAP ACROSS OUR SE WITH THIS SECOND WAVE,
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO REACH UP INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOWLING GREEN TO RICHMOND, KY LINE. NORTH OF
THIS LINE, AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. WPC MARGINAL RISK LOOKS
GOOD, BUT EXPECT IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO PONDING OF WATER AND/OR
A NUISANCE FLOOD ISSUE OR TWO. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVERALL. OVERALL, SATURDAY IS A COOLER DAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPS LIKELY
STAY STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORK THROUGH OUR AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. BY
SUNDAY, ONE LAST INTENSE VORT LOBE MAY ROTATE AROUND INTO OUR
REGION, AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S, TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING, BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY AND TUESDAY).
AFTER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ON MONDAY, TEMPS
RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MIXTURE OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR CONDITIONS BY 07/18Z. FOR
THE AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...MJ
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