873
FXUS63 KLMK 161751
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
151 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
* A PERIOD OF WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY.
* STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOW-END RISK OF
STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A PATCHY FROST LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ON THE
RIDGES AND LOWER-MID 50S IN THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS. AREA RADARS
CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE TIME
BEING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING LINE OF
CONVECTION OUT NEAR ST. LOUIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS, WITH THE MORE PROTECTED
VALLEYS REMAINING IN THE MID 50S.
FOR TODAY, QUITE A BIT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DECAYING LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, LATEST
ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER IN
RECENT RUNS. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINT WEST THIS MORNING.
SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND
THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY EAST OF THE US 27/127
CORRIDOR). A LOOK AT PROXIMITY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOUT 25-30KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT OF A WARM NOSE ABOVE 700MB WHICH
MAY KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS OF 75-80 EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREAS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SOME OF THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT A TRAILING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER BATCH OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
AND INTO NORTHERN AR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SCRAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KY
AND COULD IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (PROB AROUND 30%). OTHERWISE,
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEYS. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 83-88 DEGREE RANGE WITH BREEZY WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AREAS
WEST OF I-65 PRIOR TO DAWN SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR SATURDAY, A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND THE OH/TV VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A LARGE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH AXIS AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AND THAT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30
MPH DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY, MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT IN A LITTLE FASTER
THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING ACROSS THE IN/IL BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND THEN CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER SOMETIME BETWEEN 18-21Z AND THEN
SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY MAY BE QUITE LIMITED IN
AREAS WEST OF I-65 DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, IN AREAS
EAST OF I-65, A POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
SOME DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH 800-1000 J/KG.
WHILE THE INSTABILITY MAY BE MODEST, MODEL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. OVERALL FLOW IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL SO CONVECTION WOULD TEND TO BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. BEST COMBINATION OF
SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FROM ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN OHIO INTO PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINA WHERE THE NEW SPC
DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK IS LOCATED.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY CONTINUES TO
BE FROM THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIMING HAS INCREASED A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE FRONT MAY BE PUSHING
THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION AT THAT TIME, EXTENSIVE CLOUD CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST UNTIL MID-EVENIG OR SO.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FALL
SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FALLING FROM THE
70/80S TO THE LOW-MID 50S BY MID-EVENING. CONVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF FROST ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE BLUEGRASS WITH MID-UPPER 60S
IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
MAINLY VFR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A BAND OF
BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5 KFT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LEX AND RGA THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KY/TN LATER THIS
EVENING. BWG COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01-02Z (30-40% CHANCE).
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
03Z, WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER THAT. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL SCT CIRRUS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
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