217  
FXUS63 KLMK 070721  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
321 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
..DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE
 
   
..ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
 
 
THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME JUST FOR A DIFFERENT DAY. MORE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MOST  
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH ONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL  
IL, A SECOND ONE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDERS OF NE/KS AND A THIRD  
ALONG THE KS/CO BORDERS. ALL OF THESE COMPLEXES ARE MOVING ALONG THE  
EDGE OF THE 500MB RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY  
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND JUST HOW HOT WILL IT GET AND TIMING AND  
LOCATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE START  
OF THE DAY AS THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS  
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS  
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF OUR CWA  
BY DAYBREAK MOSTLY WEST OF I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-64. HI-RES SHORT RANGE  
MODELS HAVE THE SECOND MCS LOCATED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AT THE  
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON  
WHAT TO DO WITH THESE COMPLEXES AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS, THEY ALL SEEM  
TO SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THIS  
TIME FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. WITH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY  
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE  
MAIN THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL GIVEN POTENTIAL  
CLOUD COVER. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND  
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE VARIOUS MCS AND AFTERNOON  
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE CLOUDS WOULD WORK TO KEEP  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF  
THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND  
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TODAY. IF WE SEE ENOUGH BREAKS  
IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME PLACES WILL SEE THEIR  
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AND WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS  
AGAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY, HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 100  
TO 105.  
 
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH  
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
COULD MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE  
LOW/MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED  
STATES RECENTLY WILL RE-FOCUS WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES  
AS LOWER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CANADA DIP INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS  
WILL HELP TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL NOTCHES FROM WHAT WE HAVE  
BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.  
 
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON  
FRIDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM, HUMID  
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH STEEP LOW  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
WILL BE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS, SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE  
AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH  
VERY HIGH FREEZING HEIGHTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO 2.2  
INCHES, LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDEX READINGS MAY APPROACH 105 IN KENTUCKY WEST OF I-65.  
 
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLIP SLIGHTLY TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM  
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, A 5H WAVE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST  
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY STILL CAUSE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RISE BACK UP INTO THE 90S BY MONDAY BUT HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD  
STAY BELOW 100.  
 
THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK TERRIBLY  
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL  
KY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL. FOR THE REST OF THE  
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HAVE GONE VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF LEX WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO EVEN A BRIEF TIME OF IFR  
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. RADAR WAS ALSO SHOWING A  
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS OF TAF ISSUANCE BUT DECIDED TO KEEP  
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THE THREAT OF THEM IMPACTING A TAF SITE  
REMAINS LOW.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT EXPECT TO  
SEE CIGS DROP TO AROUND 5K FT LATER TODAY AS A STALLED BOUNDARY  
MEANDERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF  
SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE  
MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CONFIDENCE  
REMAINS LOW AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO WENT PROB 30  
FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET WITH RISING  
CIGS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM  
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.  
 
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM  
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-039-045>047-  
053>056-061>067-070>078-081-082.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BTN  
LONG TERM...13  
AVIATION...BTN  
 
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