451  
FXUS63 KLMK 032354  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
754 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST, BUT  
REASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.  
 
* HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHERLY  
BREEZE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH IS KEEPING THE HUMIDITY  
REASONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. NW FLOW ALOFT STILL HAS  
SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE, SO THE CU FIELD IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE.  
EVEN WITH THAT, BUILDING HEIGHTS HAVE HELPED TO PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND  
90 DEGREES.  
 
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL  
COOLING, SO EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING,  
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OTHER SHELTERED AREAS. FOR FRIDAY THE SFC  
HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK, SETTING UP A LIGHT EAST  
WIND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING, SO TEMPS LOOK  
TO RUN 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY, WITH LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST.  
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX  
OUT OF TRIPLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
HUMIDITY STARTS TO RAMP UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGING SLIPS  
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE  
LOWER/MID 90S BUT DEWPOINTS WILL RISE SLOWLY, NOT REACHING 70 UNTIL  
FAIRLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS S/SW FLOW DEEPENS. NOT MUCH CONCERN  
YET ABOUT HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT IF  
DEWPOINTS RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN ADVERTISED WE COULD START TO SEE  
THE HEAT INDEX REACH 100+.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO START TO RAMP UP ON SUNDAY,  
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WESTERLIES  
ARE FAIRLY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH, SO NO REAL SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS.  
HOWEVER THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THAT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP,  
THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH PULSE SEVERE HAZARDS ON THE TABLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS  
DISSIPATING, LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HNB MAY SEE VSBY  
DROP TO LOW-END MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z FRI. VERY  
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT, WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND  
DEVELOPING FRIDAY. BASED ON PREVIOUS YEARS, SDF IS LIKELY TO DROP TO  
AT LEAST MVFR VSBY IN THE PLANNING PERIOD DUE TO FIREWORK SMOKE.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RAS  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...EBW  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page