112
FXUS63 KLMK 150512
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
112 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPDATED AT 222 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
QUIET AND CALM WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHER THAN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, MOST
PLACES ARE ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY
DEVELOP, BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
TOMORROW, THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN A TOLERABLE RANGE (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S). SKIES WILL START
OUT CLEAR TOMORROW, BUT A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
NORTHERN IL/IN MAY THROW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUR WAY BY
THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
UPDATED AT 228 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LOW
ENVIRONMENTAL CIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, GENERALLY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
KENTUCKY BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST DEFLECTS MOST SYSTEMS AROUND THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT MAY
SWIPE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND BRING SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK
IN AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 110 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD. I-64 CORRIDOR TERMINALS COULD SEE A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...RJS
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