022
FXUS63 KLMK 241057
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND PART OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
TODAY, UPPER RIDING REMAINS IN PLACE, CUTTING NORTH THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, AND THEN DROPPING
SOUTH AGAIN THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRETCH FROM THE CAROLINAS WEST INTO TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY.
GENERALLY THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY, BUT WARM
MOIST AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION, LIFTING DEW POINTS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AND
BLUEGRASS REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. FOR
MOST PEOPLE, EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY, BUT THOSE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2" EXTEND UP THE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED. THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNCHANGED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TONIGHT, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER RIDGE/UPPER HIGH THAT ON
FRIDAY IS STILL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION CHANCES, BUT
OVERALL MOST PEOPLE WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY HOT DAYS. THE CONCERN THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEAT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 105, BUT ON SUNDAY,
AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES WEST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, HEAT
INDICES RETURN TO 105+ FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF FRANKFORT. THESE
WARMER HEAT INDICES COULD REMAIN THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK, AT LEAST
FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS THE UPPER HIGH MAKES IT WEST TO
OKLAHOMA, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA AND KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCE, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DEW POINTS BACK
INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR SDF AND/OR HNB TODAY. BELIEVE THE
CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT THIS
COULD BE ADDED TO FUTURE TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY TO
8 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KYZ023>035-038-039-045-053-
061>063-070>074.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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