864
FXUS63 KLMK 161947
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
UPDATED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. CLOUD COVER HAS REALLY BEEN LIMITED TO
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE SUN
WITH 90-91 IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS, TO THE UPPER 70S UNDER THE
CLOUDS IN WESTERN KY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS TO COME IN SEVERAL WAVES THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AT THE MOMENT.
SECONDARY WAVE IS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR EVANSVILLE, IN SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TN. ATMOSPHERE IS MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 1200-1500 J/KG RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF ELEVATED EFFECTIVE
SRH STRETCHING FROM OWENSBORO NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FAR NW CWA.
OVERALL SURFACE FLOW REMAINS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SOME SPEED
SHEER, BUT NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL BACKED
FLOW. THE COMBO OF MLCAPE AND EFFECT SRH MAY POSE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO RISK OVER OUR FAR NW CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
KLVX/KVWX VROT VALUES HAVE BEEN VERY LOW (20-25KT) AND LCL HEIGHTS
ARE STILL AROUND 800-1000M. THUS, PROBABLY GOING TO SEE SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
PWAT GRADIENT WAS ALSO SEEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES AROUND 1.5-
1.7IN ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND THEN SHARPLY RISING TO ABOVE 2
INCHES WEST OF EVANSVILLE. SO STORMS OUT WEST OF I-65 WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD RISK IS CERTAINLY
THERE, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRANSVERSE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
REPEATEDLY OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME SWATH OF LAND.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE I-65 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. JUST HOW FAR EAST
WE'LL SEE IT GET IS RATHER QUESTIONABLE. MUCH OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT FRANKFORT TO TOMPKINSVILLE. WITH THAT SAID, WILL
KEEP HIGH POPS OUT WEST OF I-65 AND TAPERING IT TO CHANCE POPS OUT
EAST.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE
BEST COMBO OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS
EVENING AND MAKE FURTHER MODIFICATIONS AS NEEDED. LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ALONG WITH
THE SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY.
BEST CHANCES OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90 ONCE AGAIN.
QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY SEE BASIN
AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OF STORMS.
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS AND RELATIVE HIGH FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. THAT IS NOT
TO SAY THAT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPDATED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
..EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE FOR END OF WEEK THROUGH WEEKEND
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN RISING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO LINGER EAST OF I-
65 INTO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 06-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A WEAK
NW TO SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT DRIFTS EAST FROM WESTERN KY AND
SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY MORNING. 12Z MODELS SHOW MOISTURE POOLING WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 75 F ALONG WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. BEFORE
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGING CAN BUILD OVERHEAD, THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-65 IN THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID IN
THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL REMNANTS, HOWEVER. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE OPPRESSIVE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID
100S.
CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN ITS DEPICTION
OF A 593-594 MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S BOTH DAYS WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-
110 DEGREES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN AN SPS AND THE
HWO FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD, AND A LARGE NORTHERN
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US. A SFC
COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME, SO BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 111 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS
FEATURE APPROACHING, WE'LL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO AFFECT
KHNB/KBWG/KSDF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT IN THE I-75 CORRIDOR NEAR KLEX,
BUT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER THERE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
AROUND 17/00Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-12KT
RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL SEE CEILING BUILD DOWN INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AFTER 17/10Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
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