552
FXUS63 KLMK 251421
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1021 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 14Z.
* DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MORNING MORNING.
* SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT FROM STORMS REMAINS TO OUR WEST BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
EARLIER DENSE FOG HAS CONTINUED TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF
NOW, IN AREAS EAST OF I-65, WE'RE STILL DEALING WITH A LOW STRATUS
LAYER. THIS LAYER WILL MOVE AND MIX OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD CLEARING IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR OVER
THE NEXT 60-90 MIN AND EVENTUALLY OVER IN THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
A COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL, CALM-LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEARING LOW
CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE ADVISORY, BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE ENOUGH TO
NOT EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY EAST.
THE COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS HOUR
AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST AROUND 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.
WE WILL SEE AMPLE MIXING TODAY, THUS MILD DRY AIR MIX DOWN WILL BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RH INTO THE 30% RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS, ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT SATURDAY.
TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO WORK
SW INTO THE BLUEGRASS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 70S AND TOUCHING 80. WITH
LIGHT WINDS, SUNDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT,
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
===== MONDAY - TUESDAY MORNING =====
MONDAY MORNING BEGINS QUIET WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER
50S AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WE'RE
ANTICIPATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING ON THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING
WELL TO OUR NORTH BASED ON JET DYNAMICS OF A LEFT EXIT REGION
CARRYING THIS SHORTWAVE WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER, BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BOOSTED BY SW FLOW AND AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH GUSTY WINDS AS A JET MOVES
OVERHEAD.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES CLOSE BY AND THEN MOVES TO OUR NORTH,
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY AVOID OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
STORMS FIRING UP FROM THIS SHORTWAVE MAY NOT PUSH INTO OUR AREA
UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT
EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT IN THE MIDWEST, OUR SAVING
GRACE COULD BE THE POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE, WHERE
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID,
LATEST AI MODEL LEARNING TRENDS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, EVEN NOTING THE
LATEST SEVERE OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MAIN LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT, BUT
SHOULD THE STORMS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE WANING DURING A MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS TO THE
GREATEST THREAT AS ANY STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH COULD TAP INTO A
STRONG JET OVERHEAD.
DESPITE THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE LEVEL THREAT FOR MONDAY
NIGHT'S STORMS, THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME RAIN TO HELP ALLEVIATE
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE STATE. RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL
TIMING SEEMS TO BE JUST AFTER SUNSET, CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE RIGHT-SKEWED DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS
AS THEY APPROACH, GENERALLY REMAINING 0.5-1" (50-75%), HOWEVER
TOTALS CLOSER TO AN 1.5" (10-20%) OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS
MOVE IN EARLIER MONDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY, RAIN AND STORMS CLEAR
SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS SLOWLY
BUILD AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE
ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.
===== WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY =====
AFTER TUESDAY'S CLEARING, THE SYNOPTIC SET UP IS TRENDING TOWARDS
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH BROAD TROUGHING TO
NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES APPROACHING
FROM OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE
MORNING. FOR NOW, IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ESTIMATE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THOUGH LATEST TRENDS IS THAT SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOST SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL
ARRIVING, BUT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE TRENDING COOLER STILL BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE
ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR FROM THE GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
MOVE IN AND DROP HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY. WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP, ANY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA. MEANING
FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD APPROACH AND BRING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER STILL IN THE MID 60S.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS THE OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAWN
HOURS. WITHIN 2 HOURS OF SUNRISE, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 5-8KTS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE. CIGS WILL
STEADILY RAISE AND THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SATURDAY NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....SRW
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