673
FXUS63 KLMK 191034
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* COOL/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO THE
BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
* A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT MAJOR RAIN CHANCE WILL BE IN THE FRIDAY-
SATURDAY PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CLEARING SKIES WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK EASTWARD AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE SLACKENING OF THE WIND
FIELD, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S BY DAWN.
FOR TODAY, SKIES WILL START OFF SUNNY THIS MORNING, BUT WE SHOULD
SEE A COLD AIR STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. A FEW MID
60S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.
FOR TONIGHT, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION FOR A PORTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEHIND THAT FRONT, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT MAY KEEP US FROM FULLY RADIATING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. HERE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S, WITH SOME PROTECTED VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION. OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF
FROST HAS DECREASED A BIT IN THE LATEST FORECASTS BASED ON THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. AS A PRE-CAUTION TO EARLY SEASON
GARDENERS, WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR OUR SE IN
AND BLUEGRASS REGION COUNTIES TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE FROST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF
CENTRAL KY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S OUT IN THE EAST, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US WITH TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT AT THE
SURFACE WE'LL GET BACK INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW PATTERN ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS OF 73-78
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND SCRAPE THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS. OTHERWISE HIGHS OF 75-80 ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE
50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND
A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH A CONTINUED WARM SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EFI DATASETS.
OVERALL A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIVING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY BRINGING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WE'LL SEE SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL START OFF OUT OF THE WEST AND
THEN PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY MONDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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