259  
FXUS63 KLMK 150828  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
428 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH  
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.  
 
* GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND HIGHS INTO THE 80S ON  
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.  
 
* STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY  
AND INTO SUNDAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.  
A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL LINGER A BIT TO OUR NORTH  
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. OTHER  
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN, NORTH CENTRAL KY  
INTO THE BLUEGRASS IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. BECAUSE OF THIS QUASI-  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, THERE WILL BE A STRONG TEMPERATURES GRADIENT  
WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS TO LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S FOR  
WESTERN KY AND AROUND BOWLING GREEN.  
 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD, WINDS  
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S  
FROM THE BLUEGRASS TO EAST IF I-65 WITH MID/UPPER 40S WEST OF I-65.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE PAST  
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DRY, QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, THE  
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER SPINE OF  
THE APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS AS THE SFC RIDGING MOVES ALONG THE  
EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS AS IT  
OPENS UP AND DEVELOPS INTO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US  
BY FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE  
DAKOTAS AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS.  
 
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION  
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD  
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF  
THE BOUNDARY INCREASING THE SW FLOW AND PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS  
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE  
ADVECTION PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WE WILL  
ALSO SEE WARMER AIR ADVECT IN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO  
NEAR OR INTO THE MID 80S.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF  
THE STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO ST. LOUIS TO TULSA.  
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD START TO ENTER OUR FAR  
WESTERN CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE BEST FORCING AND  
DEEP MOISTURE DOESN'T APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH  
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON.  
 
AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT,  
LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 45-55KTS AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO BETWEEN  
1.50" TO 1.75" OR ABOUT 220 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. A  
LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE  
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN  
GUSTY AND THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH OF THE STRONG LLJ WINDS WILL  
BE ALLOWED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WORK  
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A  
NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVER THE AREA AS THE STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS, IF THE  
INVERSION HOLDS, IT WOULD DIMINISH SOME OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE  
THREAT WE WOULD HAVE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.  
 
AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A  
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A  
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE SCENARIO GIVING THAT THE ARRIVAL IS IN THE  
EVENING WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDS OF MUCAPE. CIPS ANALOGS ALONG  
WITH THE SPC CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS FURTHER WEST ACROSS FAR  
WESTERN KY, SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHEAST MO AND AR AS THE MORE FAVORABLE  
AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS  
LOW, IT ISN'T ZERO, AND WITH A STRONG LLJ, ANY STORMS EMBEDDED ALONG  
THE LINE COULD PRODUCE SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS.  
 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES CONTINUES TO BE  
ADVERTISED, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT HIGH  
GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST  
WEEK, LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE SHOWER  
AND STORMS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY.  
 
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY  
SUNDAY. WHILE THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WILL BE OFF  
TO THE EAST, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH  
INCREASING CAA WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
CWA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER. BY LATE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, RAIN WILL MOVE OUT AND CLOUDS  
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
SLIGHT RIDGING RETURNS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON MONDAY OVER  
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER  
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY FOR DRIER COOLER  
DAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH AN UPPER  
TROUGH COULD WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND  
FOG AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN PAST DAYS. A  
WEAK FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND SLOWLY MOVE  
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AND  
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 7-10KTS.  
 
 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...BTN  
LONG TERM...BTN  
AVIATION...BTN  
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