454
FXUS63 KLMK 201113
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..UPDATED FORECAST AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AT FREEZING IN JEFFERSON COUNTY, IN,
DISPATCHERS INDICATE ONLY A FEW ROADS WITH SLICK CONDITIONS. WILL
THUS LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE THERE AND REPLACE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WINDS AT KIMS FINALLY ARE TURNING TO
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD START NUDGING UPWARD.
OTHERWISE, SEEING A BACK EDGE TO THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP. CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARMING SOME TOO, SO RAIN RATES SHOULD COME DOWN. LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES WE SHOULD BACK FILL WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN LATER THIS MORNING, SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
WISCONSIN MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOWING THE PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT 24
HOURS AGO WAS PULLING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NOW IS RIDING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD UP THE MS VALLEY. THIS FEED, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN THE SOAKING RAINS, ALONG WITH
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION. THE PLUME SHOULD PUSH JUST EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THIS FIRST WAVE OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.
A WARM FRONT, NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER THIS HOUR, WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...REACHING THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES AND
PERHAPS 60 ALONG THAT SOUTHERN BORDER. WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO
WESTERLY TONIGHT WILL HELP LOWS TO GET BACK DOWN TO THE 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...MRMS AS OF 2 AM EST IS SHOWING TOTALS
IN OUR AREA PEAKING AROUND 0.75 INCH...JUST A TAD ABOVE KENTUCKY
MESONET STATIONS REPORTED VALUES. TOTALS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE
BEEN MUCH HIGHER, WITHIN THE ENHANCED BELT OF LIFT IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES INTO OUR REGION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE SHOULD SEE OUR
NUMBERS GO UP AS WELL...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY DAY'S END
ALONG AN AXIS FROM RUSSELLVILLE TO BARDSTOWN TO CYNTHIANA, KY. THIS
KEEPS THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING GOING AND PLAN NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
..ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS ON THURS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
=============================
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
=============================
STEADY RAINS WILL SLOWLY CREEP NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT FRI/FRI
NIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED T-STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT ON FRI AND
FRI EVENING. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
MODERATE STEADY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND BEST FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL LOOK TO BE ON
SAT INTO SAT EVENING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH OVER OUR AREA EARLY SAT AND THEN PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SAT EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN STEADY RAINS
AND T-STORMS. 1-2+" OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SAT/SAT
NIGHT WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON ALREADY VERY
SATURATED SOILS. RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN T-STORMS. TOTAL RAINFALL FRI THROUGH
SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1.5-3+".
SATURDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK
AS THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE IN PLACE INCLUDING THE EXIT REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET.
WITH ALL OF THE RAIN/CLOUDS SAT MORNING, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY
POSE A CHALLENGE. HOWEVER, THE 0Z MODEL RUNS DID SPEED UP THE
TIMING WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS A THIN AREA OF SBCAPE
INTO OUR REGION SAT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND WEST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS STILL LOW-MEDIUM BUT THE
POTENTIAL WINDOW FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME FOR SOUTHERN IN/CENTRAL KY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
CELLULAR STRUCTURES LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AND COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
IN THE WARM SECTOR SAT, TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S
APPROACHING 70 OVER SOUTHERN KY.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SW-W WINDS LOOK PRETTY GUSTY. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35-40+ MPH WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY. SUN/MON LOOK DRY AND COOLER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WITH A LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN DAY 7.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
UPDATED AT 610 AM EST WED FEB 20 2019
RAINY PATTERN FOR THIS TAF, WITH STEADY LIFT ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEEING A BRIEF BACK EDGE TO
PRECIP AT HNB...PERHAPS GETTING TO SDF IN AN HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT
SOME BACK FILLING OF RAINS THOUGH. THUS HAVE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, LIKELY INTO THE IFR RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM EASTERLY RIGHT NOW TO
SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD END THIS EVENING, WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CEILINGS. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHTNING AT ANY OF THE SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/LOCATION TOO LOW TO PUT INTO ANY ONE TERMINAL RIGHT NOW. WILL
UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ090>092.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RJS
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