183
FXUS63 KLMK 121744
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY AND INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
* GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
* A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. COULD SEE 0.5-1 INCH OF SNOW OVER THE REGION. SNOW
COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
REINFORCE SW SURFACE FLOW AND WAA. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WAA,
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LLJ WILL BRUSH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING, WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF
20-25MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MIGHT BE A SETUP FOR SOME
MILD DRY AIR MIX DOWN, WHERE WE COULD SEE DEW POINTS DIP INTO THE
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED WAA,
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY,
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AND A 40-45KT LLJ WILL BRUSH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING, MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL
LIKELY BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35MPH. THIS IS MAINLY A CONCERN
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, AS THE LLJ WILL LIKELY NOT
EXTEND SOUTH TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. AN SPS FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ON WEDNESDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LIKELY BRING A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH IT. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN GOOD NNW FLOW, WE MIGHT EVEN SEE A LONG FETCH OFF OF SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY QUICKLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES, WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF EPV NOTED, WHICH INCREASES
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER TO ABOUT 4-5. THEREFORE, SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CURRENTLY, SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM LOOK
TO BE AROUND 0.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND AROUND 1 INCH
OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND EASTERN AREAS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES JUST NOW BEGIN TO CONVERGE.
SNOW CHANCES WILL STEADILY TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
WAA.
FRIDAY NIGHT - THE WEEKEND...
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND
LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY LOOK MARGINAL, SO
PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. CURRENTLY LOOKING
AT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, AROUND OR UNDER AN INCH.
AMONGST ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS COLD FRONT BEING QUITE STRONG. WE MAY SEE 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
18C ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SUNDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW-TO-MID TEENS. WITH STEADY WINDS THAT
MORNING, THIS WOULD BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO.
THIS COLD MIGHT STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGHT BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS MAY BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
WAVES OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW 20 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEX/SDF/HNB. TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 5-10 KT
OUT OF THE S/SW BEFORE STRENGTHENING AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES, WITH A FEW 30+ KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT SDF/LEX.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG
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