962
FXUS63 KLMK 180712
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW RISK OF STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-EVENING.
* MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FOR THE LAST PART OF THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY
MORNING.
* A WARMING TREND COMMENCE BY MID-WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OUT IN
THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. AREA
RADARS REMAIN GENERALLY ECHO FREE AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL IL EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MO AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. A WIDESPREAD BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN IN AND OUR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD
DAWN.
FOR TODAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM IL INTO SOUTHWEST
MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO IN/KY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IN AND
WESTERN KY THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S
NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
WILL QUITE LIMITED TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER, SO STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SOME RESTRENGTHENING OF
STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING OCCURS. SPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE FROM MUCH OF THE REGION AND ONLY KEEPS OUR FAR EASTERN
AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE I-65 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 200-400 PM EDT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT A QUICK SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO LOW-MID 50S BY EARLY EVENING. BY MID-
EVENING TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 IN THE BLUEGRASS WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY BRING AREAS OF FROST TO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DRIP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
BLUEGRASS WITH UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL START OFF WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND TROUGHING OFF THE
WESTERN US COAST. IN BETWEEN, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE EASTWARD KEEPING THE OHIO VALLEY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BY MID-LATE WEEK, THE WEST COAST US
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE ROCKIES BEFORE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF CONVECTION FROM THE MO
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINT WEST. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10KTS. ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SURFACE WINDS VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER SUNRISE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
DUE TO SHOWERS. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE I-65
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 17-19Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST, AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND, A
PERIOD OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM ROUGHLY 18/19Z TO
18/23Z. AS THE FRONT HEADS EASTWARD, LOOK FOR CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY EARLY-MID EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO KSDF
BETWEEN 18/23-19/00Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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