669
FXUS63 KLMK 041729
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL KICK OFF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN LOW-
LYING RURAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF FROST IS
LOW.
* MILD-MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WORST OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY,
WILL WORSEN THIS WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. THE NEXT (40-60%)
CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
*** MILD START TO THE WEEK, PATCHY FROST(?) MONDAY NIGHT ***
IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST, MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE'LL
LIKELY ADD ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES BEFORE COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ILLINOIS TO
OHIO TOMORROW, SETTLING OVER THE APPALACHIANS TOMORROW NIGHT. WHILE
IT'S TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY, WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO
FAVOR A COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-15 MPH - CONFINING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-MID 70S - BUT TOMORROW NIGHT WINDS SHOULD
EASE, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (CLOSER TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER). WITH FEW, IF ANY, CLOUDS AROUND,
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING - ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE THE LOW 40S IF NOT UPPER 30S IN THE
TYPICAL COLD-PRONE, LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS. IF WINDS REALLY DROP OFF,
THERE MAY BE A FIELD OR TWO THAT SEE FROST, BUT NBM SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO HAPPEN (USUALLY <37 DEGF) ARE
UNLIKELY (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE) FOR MOST.
*** SLIGHTLY WARMER, REMAINING DRY INTO SATURDAY ***
WITH SUCH A COOL START TO THE DAY AND CONTINUED WEAK EASTERLY FLOW,
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY MAY APPROACH 80. WE REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET STREAM THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE THE DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS FOR DEEP
MIXING EACH AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM JUST A
SMIDGEN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY; FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S (WARMEST SOUTH), WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY. THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE WORSENING AND EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE, WITH D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) OBSERVED FROM OHIO TO MONROE
COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTHWEST, AND D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) COVERING MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) ON LAST WEEKS' UPDATE
FROM THE US DROUGHT MONITOR.
*** TROPICAL REMNANTS TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN(?) BY SUNDAY ***
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING WEEKEND, OUR ATTENTION RESTS ON A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (NBC) HAS GIVEN THIS FEATURE A 30% OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, SUGGESTING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN. HOWEVER, IF THE SOLUTION CURRENTLY DEPICTED
BY BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF (I.E., SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS THIS FEATURE NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS) MATERIALIZES, WE COULD SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT (A) THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM, (B) THE
MOVEMENT OF THAT SYSTEM, AND (C) HOW IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST, THE TIMING OF WHICH REMAINS UNCLEAR PER
CLUSTER ANALYSIS. CONSEQUENTLY, MEMBER LOW LOCATIONS IN BOTH GEFS
AND EPS (EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE) VARY DRASTICALLY IN TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. HOWEVER, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 1
(2) INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8AM MONDAY
MORNING ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 30-45% (15-20%) - SUGGESTING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COULD AID THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FLIGHT
PERIOD, THOUGH PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT AT RGA
(10-15% CHANCE). GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB
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