377
FXUS63 KLMK 210145
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
945 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S EXPECTED.
* INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS.
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MILD LOWS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY. THERE
IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN IN, AND
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, THERE IS A NOTABLE LOW LEVEL
JET SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH ABOUT 2-5 AM ACROSS OUR EAST. GIVEN
THAT THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AND THAT NOTHING HAS FIRED YET NEAR OUR AREA WITH PEAK
LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO STAY OPTIMISTIC THAT NOTHING
DEVELOPS IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP US DRY, BACKING UP THAT
IDEA.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT FOR NOW, NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PLANNED. EVEN IF SOMETHING DID GET GOING, IT LIKELY WOULDN'T AMOUNT
TO MUCH MORE THAN A SHOWER OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THIS SFC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN KY
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OHIO/INDIANA,
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AROUND
300-500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE ALONG THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LESS THAN
20%. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A POOL OF GREATER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS
WINDS BECOME MUCH LIGHTER BEHIND THE FRONT, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING/COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.
RESIDUAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY
WASHES OUT. WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON HELPING TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION MAY PROVIDE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A
RESULT, WE'LL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA, SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE/LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD, WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SUNDAY MORNING, AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STRETCH FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST US. S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
POTENTIALLY BEING THREATENED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE ONE WHICH IMPACTED THE REGION LAST WEEKEND, AND
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE FAVORED (>50% PROBABILITY) TO REMAIN BELOW 30
MPH OUTSIDE OF OUR TYPICALLY GUSTY LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US, DIGGING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AS IT DOES SO. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
NUDGE A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY STOUT WARM LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN 850-700 MB
WHICH SHOULD CAP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT
THE CAP TO ERODE SOMEWHAT, ALLOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH 500 MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60-65 KT, EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 50 KT, WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE ARE A COUPLE ASPECTS OF
THIS SETUP WHICH ARE UNIQUE IN COMPARISON TO RECENT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENTS. FIRST, THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING INVERSION MAY INITIALLY
HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION MORE DISCRETE, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST YOU GO. SECOND, ABOVE THE CAP, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE EML WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7.5-8 DEG C/KM. ALSO, WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG, THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
EVENTS, WITH RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SW TO W FLOW EXPECTED.
GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS, THINK WE'LL HAVE A RELATIVELY
HIGHER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY INITIALLY IF WE CAN GET ANY
DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN.
IF/WHEN STORMS BEGIN TO LINE OUT ALONG THE FRONT, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD THEN TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. OVERALL, THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LOW, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A SPIN-UP OR
TWO. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND NORTHERN KY WHERE SPC HAS CONTINUED THE DAY 3 SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5)
RISK, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WANES LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MONDAY - THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
50S AND 60S. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AT WHICH POINT WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE UPPER WAVE
PATTERN MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. AS WE GET LATER
INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT A WARM UP FOR THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE NEXT
WEEKEND. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS, SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER OH/PA AT THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD COME WITH LITTLE
FANFARE, OUTSIDE OF A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SW, TO NW, AND THEN NE BY
TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER SKY COVER OVERNIGHT,
AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND BRIEF VIS RESTRICTION AT KLEX
AROUND SUNRISE INTO THE MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME BRIEF AND
MARGINAL LLWS THREAT AT BWG/LEX/RGA, BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY SHORT-
LIVED TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BJS
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