029
FXUS63 KLMK 250149
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
949 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. LATEST TIMING
SUGGESTS LIGHT RAIN FOR THE LOUISVILLE METRO AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AND ENDING BY LATE MORNING. THE
LEXINGTON METRO AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN
AFTER SUNRISE AND CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENT WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHERN IN AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL KY. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE BRIEF (2-3
HOURS) AT ANY ONE LOCATION, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP THROUGH THE
50S AND 60S IN THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S UNDER LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
THE LONG-TERM, STARTING SUNDAY, IS GOING TO BE A VERY NICE WEATHER
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR SOUTHEAST IN
THE FOLLOWING DAYS, RETURN FLOW WILL LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S (EASTERN PARTS OF CWA) TO MID 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS PLACES TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW 60S, STILL NOT TOO BAD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
IMPACTS: LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, MVFR CEILINGS AND A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION: VFR FOR AREA TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 10
KTS THORUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 2K AND 6K FEET AGL AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY,
MOST TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO VFR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...MCK
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...MCK
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