154
FXUS63 KLMK 261356
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
956 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30MPH.
* SEVERE WEATHER ROLLS IN MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHEST RISK STRONG/SEVERE GUSTY WINDS WEST OF I-65. THIS RISK
GRADUALLY WEAKENS EAST OF I-65, THOUGH STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL RETURNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
IN OUR SOUTHWEST CWA.
* TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE
WED-SAT FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS, TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOW-MIDDLE
50S.
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT STRATUS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX
OUT THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING THE MIX OUT OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN IN AND IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE THINK THAT WE'LL
START TO BREAK OUT AROUND LUNCHTIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER, WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
DELAY DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA, BUT
OVERALL WE BELIEVE THAT WE CAN STILL WARM INTO THE 74-79 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE FORECAST AREA. DOWN ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
CURRENTLY, LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
LIKELY COVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AROUND DAY BREAK.
THIS STRATUS WILL STEADILY LIFT AND THIN THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. FOR THIS REASON, AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
14Z.
UPPER RIDGING IS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH. LOOKING TO SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND MID-UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
===== MONDAY - TUESDAY MORNING STORMS =====
INITIAL RIDGING IS IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE UNDERGOING
CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BOOST WARM SW FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT THIS WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
DAYTIME MIXING. THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY AS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL BE ADVANCING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FOLLOWING THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID LEVEL JET. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF A QLCS OVER MO/IL. AS THIS
APPROACHES, THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DEPARTING
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, AND OUR COLD FRONT KICK-STARTING THESE
STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
SO, BY MONDAY EVENING, AS THE QLCS APPROACHES, IT WILL BE WEAKENING
DUE TO LESS SOURCES FOR LIFT FROM WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS, LOSS OF LIFT FROM THE STALLING COLD FRONT, AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY MOVING INTO OUR AREA AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT,
A MAIN LINE OF STORMS, MAY BE PRECEDED BY A WEAKER LINE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN EVENT, WILL BE SLOWLY COLLAPSING AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS OUR
CWA. DESPITE THIS, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A STRONG WIND GUST THREAT,
ALLOWING FOR THE STORMS THAT ROLL THROUGH TO MIX DOWN THESE STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE AREAS WEST OF I-65
HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE LINE
COLLAPSES AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY
AS STORMS COLLAPSE EAST OF I-65, THOUGH THIS IS STILL A RISK
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A TORNADO IN
THIS LINE OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCE
KINKS OR ROTATION ALONG THE LINE. ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THREATS ALSO
INCLUDE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING AS WELL.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS STORMS ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 9-
10 PM EDT PROGRESSING EASTWARD HITTING THE I-65 CORRIDOR NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FAVOR WHERE THE
STORMS ARE STRONGEST IN OUR WESTERN COMMUNITIES RANGING 0.5" TO 1"
INCH (75% OF THESE RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRING). SOME WESTERN AREAS
COULD SEE MORE THAN AN INCH DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME INITIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS
ARE RATHER WARM FROM CONTINUED SW FLOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
===== TUESDAY AFTERNOON - WEDNESDAY NIGHT =====
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS BUSY AND MESSY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FROM THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, THIS WILL
SERVE AS AN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVEL ALONG AND BRING
IN MORE RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING. WORKING IN
TANDEM WITH A DESCENDING TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA, ANOTHER
SURFACE LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US WILL UNDERGO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING DOWN
FROM CANADA. SLOWLY IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS ALONG A PATH
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR CWA. SO, DESPITE THE INITIAL CLOUDS CLEARING
TUESDAY MORNING, THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THOUGH THESE MAY REACH
HIGHER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE RANGING 1000-
1500 J/KG, A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR ISOLATED POP UP STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY SOURCE OF LIFT BE PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREATS FROM THIS WOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WITH TALLER ECHO TOPS. SHOULD SKIES REMAIN DRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN FROM THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LIMITING THE INSTABILITY ANY
STORMS COULD TAP INTO. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE, IF
THIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR CWA, THIS COULD SHIFT SEVERE
WEATHER SOUTH AND WEST OUT OF OUR REGION, LEADING TO MORE GENERAL
RAIN SHOWERS TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LINGER NEAR SUNRISE
BEFORE BEING SWEPT AWAY BY AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THIS
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
ACTUALLY CLEAR THE WHOLE CWA BRINGING IN DRIER, COOLER AIR AND
ENDING RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
A DECENT SPREAD IN RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 25-75TH
PERCENTILES DIFFERING BY ABOUT AN INCH. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS
THOUGH SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 1 - 2.5", HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGHS ARE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
===== THURSDAY - SATURDAY =====
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN CALMS SOMEWHAT, WITH
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE CWA, REINFORCING COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FRIDAY HIGHS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS WELL. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FROM A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE IN THE GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN,
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (<30%) WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
WILL FALL, THOUGH WHATEVER FALLS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
PATTERN STICKS AROUND FOR SATURDAY WITH CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAS OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CIGS AROUND 1200 ARE EXPECTED. CIGS MAY DROP
TO 800FT OVER THE BLUEGRASS. HEATING WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT AND
THIN SLOWLY. LOOKING TO SEE CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....SRW
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