458
FXUS63 KLMK 190209
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1009 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THIS EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
* FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS.
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH OVER THE
REGION, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO STABILIZE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT HAS WEAKENED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS
IT ENTERS THE CWA. SPC HAS REMOVED THE OUTLOOK FROM THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PIVOTING SOUTHEAST OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON, AND A 1000 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED
OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
DRAPED SW THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. WHILE WE
CURRENTLY LACK ANY NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL FORCING, A WEAK, REMNANT MID-
LEVEL WAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, AND BRIEFLY STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50+
MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE SPOTTY CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW
100S.
TONIGHT, SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
AND ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH. A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SSE INTO OUR SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY COUNTIES
BETWEEN 11 PM - 3 AM EDT. MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE) WILL LIKELY STILL BE PRESENT, THOUGH WE WILL SEE INCREASING
SBCIN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION. THE WIND PROFILE
WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE NW WITH ONLY UP TO 15-20 KTS OF
SHEAR. THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND WEAKEN
FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE
LINE TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL KY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE ONLY
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING, AND
THE CONFIDENCE IN DAMAGING 60+ MPH WINDS IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR LOWS SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF SUNDAY DRY DESPITE THE WEAK COOL FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL KY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTH OF THE FRONT) SHOULD
DESTABILIZE FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) WILL
BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARDINSBURG TO BEREA. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AREAS DRY ON
SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD BRIEFLY TOP OUT NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY IN
THE AFTERNOON (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
===== MONDAY - SATURDAY =====
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. THE SFC BOUNDARY HANGS
UP OVER THAT AREA BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SHEAR
REMAINS VERY WEAK, SO ONLY PM PULSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE POTENT SEVERE
STORM RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD PHASE IN A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DEEPER WAVE WILL
SPREAD 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL NW WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY,
PROVIDING ENHANCED FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A QLCS APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A SEASONALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BRING SWATHS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
TO THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA
SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY, KNOCKING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S AND DRY SKIES. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE TRENDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HIGHS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH PULSE
CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. A BROKEN LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY AFTER 04Z
SUNDAY. BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HNB, SDF, AND LEX.
THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
IT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KY.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT LEX/RGA - MAINLY BETWEEN 09-16Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COOL FRONT.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS MENTIONED WITH PROB30S OVER BWG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW
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