556
FXUS63 KLMK 112116
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
416 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
* DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 40S MONDAY AND INTO THE 50S TUESDAY.
* GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
* NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAIN
INITIALLY THEN POTENTIALLY MIXING AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING LOW STRATUS OVER IN WITH THE
SOUTHERN MOST EDGE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE REST OF THE CWA
WITH CLEAR SKIES. THESE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
IT IS COMMON IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS THAT LOW STRATUS DOES
LINGER AND IT COULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WILL CLEAR. WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES, WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT LATER
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED CAA, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE
WILL HAVE A CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S
BY TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTER THE CHILLY START TOMORROW MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN THEY WERE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
PROVIDING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUIET AND DRY WITH THE CONTINUED
WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPANDS OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE CONUS. SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WAA
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE 50S. STRONG
LLJ, COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION, WITH ANY MIXING, MOMENTUM TRANSFER COULD CREATE
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND BRING THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIKE WE SAW WITH
THIS LAST SYSTEM, A SECOND COLD FRONT NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR ALLOWING RAIN TO MIX AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE DRIER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD IMPACT ANY IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL FEATURE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST WITH
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL SET
UP A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WORKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR AS VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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