000
FXUS63 KLMK 181330
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
930 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM EDT (8AM
CDT) THIS MORNING.
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING HAVE BOTH BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES - WHICH BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S, COLDEST OVER
THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS WHERE THERE WERE A FEW SUB-32 READINGS - ARE
RAPIDLY WARMING WITH THE RETURN OF MORNING SUNSHINE. THE DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S BY
LUNCHTIME, WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 64-67 AROUND 2-4PM EDT; THIS
IS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR OCTOBER 18TH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WE HAVE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY COVER THIS MORNING, AND WITH SFC WINDS
GOING CALM, WE ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS MORNING. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS IS FOR
THIS MORNING, AND PLAN FOR THEM TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 13Z. FOR TODAY,
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AGAIN, WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE A CHILLY START TODAY, TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKER CAA THAN YESTERDAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND SEASONAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO
AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY, AND WILL STALL OUT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER PATTERN JET
STREAKS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE DAYS AHEAD, WHICH
MEANS CONUS WILL LACK ANY MOMENTUM TO ERADICATE THE STAGNANT UPPER
LOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN PNW
UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN AN OMEGA
PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE FROM SEA TO SHINING SEA. THIS KEEPS US DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH DAILY TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, WITH A 1030+ MB SFC HIGH AIDING IN TEMPS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S BY THEN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THERE IS SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING, BUT CHANCES FOR
IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL REMAINS LOW. SKC AND VFR WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST. EXPECT VFR FOR TONIGHT TOO.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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