984
FXUS63 KLMK 271702
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S MID WEEK AHEAD
OF RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TODAY - MONDAY NIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
80 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MASS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. FURTHERMORE, DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20% - 30%. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID
50S WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES.
MONDAY WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS IN
THIS PATTERN. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM NEAR 80 DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES AND OVERACHIEVING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
WHICH IN TURN BRINGS A SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVING AGAIN DUE TO DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS LEADING TO DRY AIR MIX DOWN.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN COLLIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REGION
WILL THEN BE SET IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QPF TOTALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
CWA. BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNALS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
THAT WILL EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE JET STREAM
DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN CHANCES
AND LIKELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD FRONT WERE TO
PUSH THROUGH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF 10-15 KT GUST IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SDF AND LEX, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...BEN
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