197
FXUS63 KLMK 221126
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. ONLY SEEING JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION. COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS, ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR TODAY, WILL BE WATCHING A PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL
TRANSVERSE THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A DECK OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE REGION. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MO AND INTO NORTHERN AR. THESE SHOULD WORK
INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TODAY SHOULD FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER SOUTHERN IN
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO THE MID-UPPER 30S OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
TANK ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL
INITIALLY FEATURE POSITIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE WEST CONUS FROM A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A RESULT, THE MAIN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHERNMOST EXTENT OF
THE CONUS WHILE WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES LINGER OVER THE GULF
AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE
EXPERIENCING SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVERSELY,
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SUBJECT TO WETTER WEATHER AND
SOMEWHAT STEADY TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
AMPLIFIES AND PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE ENERGY, AIDED BY WEAK NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES OVER FLORIDA/CUBA, CARVES A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS
CHANGE WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
COLD FRONTS.
MODEL EVALUATION/CONFIDENCE...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HINTED AT
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS). ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS, IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY
WITH RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND TOTALS. IN THIS REGARD, THE WETTER ICON
AND UKMET SOLUTIONS HAS TRENDED DRIER AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION, THE MOST OF THE MODELS
(ECMWF/GFS/CMC/ICON) AGREE THAT THE HIGHEST QPF AXIS (ABOUT 0.25-0.5
INCHES) SHOULD OCCUR FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOWARDS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE INCLUSION (OR NOT) AT TIMES
OF SNOW CHANCES. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF P-TYPE METEOGRAMS
HAS SHOWN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING FRIDAY
MORNING AND EVEN WEDNESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, LACK OF PERSISTENT AND
THE SMALL WINDOW FOR THAT TO HAPPEN YIELDS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THE MOMENT. EVEN IF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OCCURS, IT WON'T PROBABLY
ACCUMULATE.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RENDER DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH SINGLE-
DIGIT, ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES WITH TUESDAY HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS DRY CONDITIONS, THERE IS A STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR
A FEW SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A NORTHERN-
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SATURATES THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO IS MAINLY
FAVORED BY THE ECMWF GIVEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE
MOISTURE FEED AND OVERALL LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS, THERE IS NO
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALSO, THE
LOCATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY EVENT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON RIVER LEVELS. ONLY
MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT. IN THIS REGARD, GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WITH SHALLOW EL AND MPL. AGAIN, SHEAR
AND PW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER DO NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OR HEAVY RAIN, SO SMALL HAIL (IF ANYTHING) COULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGEST, BRIEF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD MAXIMIZE THE
FRONTAL FORCING AND LOCALIZED INSTABILITY POCKETS. A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN WITH LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL START OFF OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WILL BE WATCHING A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
OUT OF SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRINGING AT LEAST BROKEN CIGS TO THE REGION. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT BY EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....ALL
AVIATION.....MJ
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