847
FXUS63 KLMK 141035
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE EXPANSIVE 1028MB SFC HIGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
EASTERLY LATER ON TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD, BUT
OTHERWISE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY WX
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY OF MID-
LEVEL DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF OUR FRIDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING, EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO
NEAR 70F FOR MANY PLACES, AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 70F IN
OUR URBAN AREAS. WE'LL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT WE
ARE SURELY INCHING CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY. THE CPC 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS GIVE HOPE TO THOSE WANTING WARMER
TEMPS IN OUR AREA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT TO SEE SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS IN OUR EASTERN CWA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
GREATER FROST THREAT DUE TO SE WINDS. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
TRANSITIONAL DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A CLEAR AND CRISP START, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S EVEN IN THE FACE OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE OR LOW-END LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW, SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. WILL CARRY RAIN
CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL DRY TIME
IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ANY PRECIP THAT HAPPENS
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER, BUT NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
AROUND MID-WEEK, A RIDGE WILL BREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OPENING UP FAIRLY
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS, BUT NOT
VERY CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL SEE THIS FAR EAST.
TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO BY DAY, AND TREND WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021
IMPACTS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT.
DISCUSSION: LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SITS
OVERHEAD. A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 8-10K FEET EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS
SLOWLY BECOME MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH ON ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...CJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page