930
FXUS63 KLMK 112317
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND/OR A STORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WHERE A WEAK WARM FRONT RESIDES.
* NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS SUNDAY, WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
* INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWEST. DROUGHT-BUSTING
RAIN UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
SEEING SOME CONGESTED CU BUILD UP ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WHERE A WEAK
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WHERE WE HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM CHANCE CONTINUES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP
THINGS PRETTY QUIET SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL ACTUALLY
BE TRIGGERED GIVEN WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. EVEN IS SOMETHING IS
ABLE TO FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, VERTICAL DEPTH OF
ANY UPDRAFT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE ABOVE 20 K FEET AS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS PRESENT ON SOUNDINGS THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING,
LOOKING FOR A QUIET SHORT TERM THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SCOOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT WILL STILL
HOLD ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA, ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SE CONUS. SHOULD BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
FOR SW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. LOOKS
TO BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE YOU CAN OVERACHIEVE ON TEMPERATURES
QUITE A BIT, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER
SKY COVER. HREF CLOUD COVER AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UPPER CLOUDS, WHICH CAN LIMIT DEEPER MIXING A BIT. MIXING WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT COMPONENT TO THE FORECAST BOTH FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS, AS SOME DRIER AIR COULD MIX DOWN. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE DROUGHT, WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TEMPS, AND HAVE SOME
PRETTY LOW RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON, A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME
SPORADIC WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. 20 FOOT WINDS AND 10 HOUR FUELS ARE
STILL A BIT MARGINAL, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER SKY
COVER WON'T MESSAGE ANYTHING BEYOND THE NORMAL FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
RECORD TEMPS AT BOWLING GREEN, LOUISVILLE, AND LEXINGTON ARE 94, 87,
AND 85 RESPECTIVELY. WHILE WE WON'T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE TO THE
BOWLING GREEN ONE, WE COULD FLIRT WITH LOUISVILLE OR LEXINGTON
RECORDS. RIGHT NOW, WE EXPECT TO FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS DOES BREAK DOWN A BIT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERTURBATION OVER EASTERN CANADA
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING EJECTS OUT A BIT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE EASTERN CANADA
SYSTEM TO SLIDE TOWARD OUR WESTERN CWA, WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED AND EVENTUALLY FIZZLE
DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS, AND ENCOUNTERING SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS, SO THERE IS A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN HIGHEST POPS
(50-60%) ACROSS OUR NW CWA DOWN TO ONLY 20% ACROSS OUR SE CWA. GIVEN
SOME PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS, TEMPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN SUNDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EACH OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY - SATURDAY...
SE CONUS RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH, RIDING NE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, AND COULD CATCH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY AS EACH DISTURBANCE
PASSES. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST, HOWEVER OUR NW CWA IS LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, WHILE OUR SE CWA IS MORE LIKELY TO
STAY DRY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SUBSIDENT UPPER RIDGE. RIGHT
NOW, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SOME
OF THE LATER WEEK ACTIVITY COULD POSE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT ACROSS OUR NW CWA, WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL RESIDE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
ASSUMING WE DON'T GET TOO MUCH SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. IN FACT,
WE'LL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST IN THE LOW AND
MID 80S. PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. GIVEN THAT
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS,
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THESE DAYS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, IT SHOULD BE WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT IT CONTINUES TO WORSEN THIS UPCOMING WEEK. LREF
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY DO
SIT AT 60-70% ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER, SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WHERE D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT IS ALREADY ONGOING ONLY HAS ABOUT
15-30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
SOUTHERN KY (NEAR KBWG) WHERE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS CONTINUE. COULD
SEE A RISK OF A SHOWER IN BWG FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE
CONVECTION DIES OFF AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE, GUSTING UP
AROUND 20-22 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....BJS
AVIATION.....MJ
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