711
FXUS63 KLMK 082319
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WE BEGIN A GENERAL WARMING TREND NOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
* LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
* WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWESTERN COMMUNITIES
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS GENERALLY CALM EVERYWHERE AFTER 12
NOON EDT.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (30-40%) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS ARE PLEASANT, CALM, AND MOSTLY CLEAR AS LOWER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS US DRY TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO MID 70S CLOSER
TO THE TN BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT TO SURFACE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START BUT
HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, A LLJ WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE SOME RECENT CAM GUIDANCE, THE SURFACE
LEVEL SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM HIGHER WIND GUSTS NOT FAR ABOVE THE
SURFACE. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COMMUNITIES NORTH OF THE OHIO AFTER THE SUN RISES
THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MIXING WITH THE LLJ
OCCURS WILL DICTATE HOW HIGH WIND GUSTS CAN BE BEFORE NOON TOMORROW.
WIND GUSTS COULD GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH MAINLY BEFORE 11 AM IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES (30-50% CHANCE OF THIS IN THOSE AREAS).
FOR NOW, WE'RE FORECASTING GUSTS NORTH AND WEST OF LOUISVILLE IN THE
20-25 MPH RANGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S WITH A SSW FLOW.
EVENTUALLY, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA AND
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF SEVERAL
DAYS OF DOMINANCE OVER OUR WEATHER FROM HERE ON OUT. AS A RESULT,
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES, THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER
DAY. WEATHER REMAINS CALM WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT
SURFACE RIDGE STUBBORNLY PARKS ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEAST. ON
FRIDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL TRY TO PUSH IN
A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN IN/CENTRAL KY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S, WITH ISOLATED 80S
CLOSEST TO THE TN BORDER IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, A LACK OF FRONTOGENESIS, WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND
THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL FORCE THE FRONT TO STALL
FRIDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL KY DRAPED WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH, MEANING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN). HOWEVER, WITH WEAK LIFT AND
CAPE VALUES LIKELY (90%) REMAINING BELOW 200 J/KG, MOSTLY SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN THOUGH, WITH
SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR TN REMAINING DRY. THOSE THAT WILL SEE RAIN
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WILL LIKELY
(70-80%) SEE ANYWHERE FROM JUST 0.1 - 0.25" INCHES OF RAIN.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
STICKING AROUND MOST OF THE DAY IT SEEMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY NORTH TO SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE POSITION OF THE STALLED OUT
COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS OUR IN
COUNTIES AND UPPER 70S TO THE SOUTH NEAR TN. AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP OUT THE CLOUDY WEATHER LATER SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY, BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE APPROACHING RIDGE
WILL DEEPEN FROM LOW TO MID LEVELS, POTENTIALLY BOOSTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S. CAN'T SAY FOR SURE IF THIS
WOULD BE CONSIDERED RECORD BREAKING HEAT, BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH FROM THE WEST APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY RAINFALL ON MONDAY, THOUGH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND COULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WE'VE HAD IN A WHILE THOUGH THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. WARM TREND
CONTINUES BEYOND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK SO YOU CAN DITCH THE JACKET THEN!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. ONLY IMPACT TO SDF
AND HNB OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS DUE TO A LLJ ACROSS
IL/IN, BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST 3-4 HOURS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TOMORROW WITH WINDS FROM THE SSW AND
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 23KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...CJP
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