028
FXUS63 KLMK 081039
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
539 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL
BRING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2.5".
* COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
UPPER SKY COVER IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
SLOW THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE SEEN VERY EFFICIENT COOLING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, WHERE SOME SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. MAY SEE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS THIS MORNING.
TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AS THIS
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND AMPLIFY.
INCREASED HEIGHTS, ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
60S AND SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE BWG RECORD HIGH ON THE DAY IS
69, TIED IN 2019. TEMPERATURES TODAY BE NEAR THIS RECORD. STRONG WAA
THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS AND PWATS TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY. WILL LIKELY SEE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY
THE END OF THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN, AND COUPLED WITH GOOD
MIXING, THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL BRING A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG LLJ THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS LLJ WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION, AND GOOD UPPER JET STRUCTURING, WILL SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OVER THE
REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY, MAINLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE, DON'T
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. THOUGH, STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO, GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LINEAR SEGMENT TO
DEVELOP, THERE IS A WEAK, BRIEF TORNADO CHANCE. SHOWERS AND VERY FEW
STORMS LOOK TO MOVE IN AFTER 6Z FROM THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE ON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND SOME AREAS IN THE LOW 70S.
LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BOTH THE WARM MIN AND MAX TEMP RECORDS ON
THIS DAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA, HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT, DUE
TO ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THAT WILL HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A MODEST LLJ
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TO BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BACK TO THE REGION. THOUGH, STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, GIVEN THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. TIMING IS ABOUT 6Z AS SHOWERS ENTER FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
WITH 2 WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED, WE ARE LOOKING TO SEE
0.5-1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
1.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. SOME AREAS IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY APPROACH 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. COULD SEE
SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR PONDING WATER DURING BOTH OF THESE WAVES
OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MATURE AND BECOME WELL STACKED AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON
SUNDAY, STRONG TROUGHING AND VORTICITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT, DEEP TROUGHING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING,
AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW 20S AND SOME COOLER SPOTS IN
THE UPPER TEENS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS IS DRIFTING NORTH OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT BWG AND HNB,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LOWERING WITH SUNSET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND
COULD SEE LOW-END MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING ON FRIDAY. A LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LLWS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
FRI, JAN 9TH
REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 53 (1949) | 53
LEX 50 (1901) | 53
BWG 53 (1935) | 59
FFT 52 (1901) | 53
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
FRI, JAN 9TH
REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 67 (1949) | 68
LEX 70 (1930) | 67
BWG 70 (1930) | 71
FFT 70 (1930) | 68
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
CLIMATE...SRW
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