217
FXUS63 KLMK 070721
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
..DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE
..ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME JUST FOR A DIFFERENT DAY. MORE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MOST
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH ONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL, A SECOND ONE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDERS OF NE/KS AND A THIRD
ALONG THE KS/CO BORDERS. ALL OF THESE COMPLEXES ARE MOVING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE 500MB RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY
WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND JUST HOW HOT WILL IT GET AND TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE START
OF THE DAY AS THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF OUR CWA
BY DAYBREAK MOSTLY WEST OF I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-64. HI-RES SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE THE SECOND MCS LOCATED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THESE COMPLEXES AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS, THEY ALL SEEM
TO SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
TIME FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY HAS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL GIVEN POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE VARIOUS MCS AND AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE CLOUDS WOULD WORK TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR TODAY. IF WE SEE ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME PLACES WILL SEE THEIR
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AND WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS
AGAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY, HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 100
TO 105.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES RECENTLY WILL RE-FOCUS WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES
AS LOWER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CANADA DIP INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WILL HELP TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL NOTCHES FROM WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM, HUMID
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS, SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING HEIGHTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO 2.2
INCHES, LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX READINGS MAY APPROACH 105 IN KENTUCKY WEST OF I-65.
ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLIP SLIGHTLY TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, A 5H WAVE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY STILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK UP INTO THE 90S BY MONDAY BUT HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 100.
THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
KY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL. FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HAVE GONE VFR FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LEX WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO EVEN A BRIEF TIME OF IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. RADAR WAS ALSO SHOWING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS OF TAF ISSUANCE BUT DECIDED TO KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THE THREAT OF THEM IMPACTING A TAF SITE
REMAINS LOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS DROP TO AROUND 5K FT LATER TODAY AS A STALLED BOUNDARY
MEANDERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION SO WENT PROB 30
FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET WITH RISING
CIGS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KYZ023>031-034-038-039-045>047-
053>056-061>067-070>078-081-082.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BTN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page