253
FXUS63 KLMK 200539
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
* THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE DRIER
CONDITIONS, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
VERY LOW CLOUDS, MOSTLY BELOW 1K FT, WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
STOUT INVERSION. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRIER AIR ABOVE 850MB, INDICATING CLOUD DEPTHS TO NOT BE QUITE AS
THICK AS EARLIER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT,
BUT GIVEN HOW LOW THE CLOUDS ARE, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME MIST
IN THE AIR. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, SO VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
12Z. TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STAGNANT, WITH NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG/MIST. SOME CLEARING HAS MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KY FROM LAKE CUMBERLAND EASTWARD TO KY/VA BORDER.
UNDER THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S OVER
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY SEEING READINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 50. WARMER AIR WAS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER
60S. IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER,
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKENING BACK UP AFTER SUNSET.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AND WHILE FOG/MIST MAY CLEAR UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, THE FOG/MIST WILL MAKE A COME BACK LATER THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
IF LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS RATHER THICK, THEN AREAS OF FOG/MIST WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP AND WE GET A
BIT MORE CLEARING, THEN FOG WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MIDDLE 40S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY.
LOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LOOK TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THURSDAY, CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INITIAL DRY PERIOD
OF WEATHER DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. SOUTH OF THE
PARKWAYS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S, WITH
MID-UPPER 60S BEING POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. A
WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOVING INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN
PROGRESS BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SEEING A BIT OF VARIANCE IN HOW FAR NORTH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS. THE GFS/GEM PUSH THE WARM FRONT WELL
INTO INDIANA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTHWARD.
THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHERE THE QPF AXIS
SETS UP. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION, QPF SPREAD
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS/GEM KEEPING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER AN INCH. ON THE OTHER HAND,
THE EURO IS A BIT MORE WETTER WITH A SOLID 1-1.5 INCHES.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BUT WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING IN TIME. JUST AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, WE'LL SEE A FETCH OF BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH BUOYANCY SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE DAY WEARS ON, THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
GET FURTHER DISPLACED NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION AND THIS LOOKS TO
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SATURDAY MORNING WOULD HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN KY WILL SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY, WITH LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. MOVING INTO THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS AND THEN BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, IT APPEARS WE'LL
HAVE A CUTTER SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT GETTING DRAGGED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
STILL SEEING THE TYPICAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE HERE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING PRECIP TO RE-ENTER THE REGION AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, WHILE THE GEM/EURO HOLD IT OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL, LEADING
TO AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
MONDAY/TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S, BUT HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH MID-UPPER 50S EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
LOW STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG AND
MIST WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
WOULD EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW MVFR.
VIS IS MORE LIKELY TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN, ESPECIALLY AT LEX AND RGA,
WHERE AREA OBS SUGGEST THERE ARE POCKETS OF LIFR FOG, SO HAVE
HANDLED THIS WITH TEMPO FOG MENTION. LATER TODAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW STRATUS LAYER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT
BETWEEN 16-20Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN RATES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVOID SUBSTANTIAL VIS
REDUCTIONS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BY THE END OF
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page