687
FXUS63 KLMK 130545
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1245 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAJORITY OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE
ZERO RANGE.
* TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
===== TONIGHT AND TOMORROW =====
TEMPERATURES RANGE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KY ENJOYING THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND
SUNSHINE, AND OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES REMAINING CLOSER TO THE
FREEZING MARK. THERE'S BEEN SOME DECENT MELTING TODAY AFTER THIS
MORNING'S CLIPPER SYSTEM, SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTANCES OF
REFREEZING/BLACK ICE ON ROADS OVERNIGHT AS OUR SFC TEMPS DROP BACK
DOWN INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER, REGIONAL TRAFFIC CAMS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW THAT ROADS HAVE MOSTLY DRIED UP SINCE THIS MORNING, SO THE
CHANCE SEEMS FAIRLY LOW AND/OR ISOLATED.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS OUR AREA WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE
A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER TO OUR NORTH, WHERE STRETCHES OF
IL/IN/OH WILL BE MORE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET, COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN AND NEGATIVE EPV. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES EXTEND THIS FAVORABLE FORCING AND MOISTURE DOWN INTO
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
BEST FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT MAY NOT SAG SOUTH INTO THE I-64
CORRIDOR UNTIL AFTER 00Z, WHICH DOES AGREE WITH OUR HIGHER POPS
ARRIVING FOR THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A
SWATH OF 1-2 FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-71, SUCH AS
MADISON, IN. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY COULD END UP BEING
A ROW OF COUNTIES TOO FAR SOUTH, AS OUR PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION
PORTAL INDICATES A 34% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF SNOW IN
LEXINGTON AND FRANKFORT, WITH BETTER CHANCES THE MORE NORTH YOU GO.
===== VERY COLD TEMPS FOLLOW =====
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL EXIT OUR REGION BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY,
WITH A VERY COLD, ARCTIC AIRMASS SET TO CRASH INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM. WE'LL SEE TEMPS TANK LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY, WHERE THE LINGERING
SNOWPACK WILL BE, AND LOW TEENS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE, NW SFC WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE AS LOW AS -10F ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
AND AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F ACROSS CENTRAL KY. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON THESE IMPACTFUL TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS, HAVE ADDED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY REMAIN ABOVE
THEIR ADVISORY CRITERIA IS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA, BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
WE REMAIN UNDER STRONG CAA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
ONLY REACH THE TEENS DURING THE DAYTIME. IT WILL BE A BRUTALLY COLD
DAY, AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPS COULD END UP BEING NEAR THE COLD MAX
RECORDS FOR DEC 14 AT SDF (15F, 1914) AND BWG (21F, 1985).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
===== SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE DEEP NW FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY, WITH ANY JET STRUCTURE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, AND
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN WEST REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS ANY LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE COOLING
PROCESS. AS SUCH, WE EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER MORNING OF SFC LOW TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO SEE THESE SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO OUR WIND CHILLS BEING NEAR THE AMBIENT TEMPS. DUE
TO THIS, LESS CONFIDENT IN NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON AND
CONSIDER WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES THROUGH THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY, AND WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY, A
HEALTHY 40-50KT LLJ WILL SWEEP ACROSS IN, AND MAY CLIP OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL INFLUENCE A WAA TAKE OVER FOR
US, WITH SOME BREEZY SW SFC WINDS HELPING US RECOVER FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS EARLIER IN THE MORNING. FORECAST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S. WHILE THOSE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL, IT'LL BE A NICE RECOVERY AFTER A GELID MORNING.
WE REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TOWARD
THE SE US, AND WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN
DURING THE DAY.
===== WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY ====
WE TAKE ON A MUCH MILDER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH TEMPS WARNING INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, AND CLOSER
TO 60 ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WAA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WHEN WE WILL FIND OURSELVES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TIED TO A SFC LOW WELL NORTH
INTO CANADA. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE FROM HERE, BUT WPC GUIDANCE
FAVORS THE EURO SOLUTION WITH A LINE A GUSTY SHOWERS PLOWING THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS TRY TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S DURING
THE DAY, BUT SFC TEMPS ALSO REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL HELP US KEEP
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LOWER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THOUGH, GIVEN A RIPPING 850MB JET ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THAT COULD BE PUSHING 70KS. IF ANYTHING, THAT JET WILL REALLY RAMP
UP OUR MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTOR, LEADING TO A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO PASS THROUGH.
CAA QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY DIPPING
DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SEEING A MIXTURE OF CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA, DEPENDING ON LOCATION. SEEING THE WORST CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KY (LEX/RGA) WHERE CEILINGS ARE DOWN INTO THE LIFR RANGE OR
EVEN CLOSE TO MINIMUMS. EXPECTING IFR TO PERSIST HERE FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW ARRIVES.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH TIME THIS MORNING. SEEING SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS AS WELL THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER DO EXPECT THOSE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS MORE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP
JUST A BIT.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO A STEADY NW COMPONENT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
EXPECTING SOME IMPACTFUL SNOW AT THE SDF/LEX, AND POSSIBLY RGA TAF
SITES MAINLY IN THE 21 TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR KYZ031>037-041>043-049.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 1 PM EST
/NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page