308
FXUS63 KLMK 260903
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
403 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS, SOME STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
* TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH COLDER
WEATHER LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
AND WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AS SEEN IN RECENT OBS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEASTERN IN AND THE NORTHERN
BLUEGRASS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KY.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS STILL BLANKET THE REGION DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE BASE OF AN INVERSION AROUND 5
KFT. A BAND OF ESPECIALLY LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OF 1-2
MILES STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY 12Z, WHICH WILL ALLOW VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING SSW WINDS IN THE NEAR-
SFC LAYER. EXPECT MORE UNIFORM TEMPS, GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S, BY
MID-MORNING.
TODAY A GRADUALLY DEEPENING SFC LOW, CURRENTLY NEAR THE IA/MO
BORDER, IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL/IN/OH
JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING SW LLJ CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING SOME LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE (30-
50%) FOR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TODAY, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
RAINFALL WON'T AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MOST PLACES.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN, NORTH-CENTRAL KY,
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
OTHERWISE, THE STORY TODAY WILL BE MORE CLOUDS WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW
WILL YIELD 10-15 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH, BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
SFC HEATING/LOW-LEVEL MIXING AND HELP KEEP GUSTS IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DIMINISHING. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL ALLOW THE STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BENEATH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. SLIGHTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S (NORTH) TO MID 50S (SOUTH)
SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SATURDAY...
THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF FAIRLY QUIET. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OUR FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BUT WE'LL STAY
DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. AN ORGANIZING SFC LOW OVER KANSAS THEN
RACES NORTHEAST TO LOWER MI, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MS VALLEY. INCREASING DEEP SW FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD, WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT PROBABLY STARTS OFF DRY.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAA REGIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WE COULD
HAVE AT LEAST 150-200+ J/KG MUCAPE SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THUNDER
LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SSW SFC WINDS COULD START TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY
AROUND THIS TIME.
DESPITE THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIODS STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL KY. WE MAY
END UP A BIT DRIER IN THE WELL ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR, WITH RAIN
CHANCES REALLY INCREASING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN VERY WARM,
BREEZY CONDITIONS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A BAND OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW-END
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE NEAR-
SFC LAYER COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER, NSSL/NCAR/CSU
ML/AI SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO BOOST CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
REALLY STRONG CAA SETS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW JUST BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR
STRONG WNW WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE CAA PATTERN WITH GOOD MIXING. WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY, AND WIND CHILLS WON'T MAKE IT OUT OF
THE 20S. COLD, DRY WEATHER IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WE START THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A BAND OF LIFR STRATUS STRETCHING
ACROSS SDF AND LEX ALONG A WARM FRONT, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CEILINGS/VSBYS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD EKX AND BWG. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z, SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. HOWEVER,
IFR AND LOW-END MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
A GRADUALLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/IN/OH TODAY, BRINGING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SW WINDS TO
THE REGION AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 20+ KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 14-22Z TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT SDF AND
ESPECIALLY LEX. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DIMINISH. LOW STRATUS APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCKED IN BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION HEADING
INTO SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY SUNDAY...
SUN, DEC 28TH
REC (YR) | FCST
SDF 70 (2021) | 72
LEX 67 (2021) | 71
BWG 72 (2021) | 76
FFT 69 (2021) | 71
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW
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