112  
FXUS63 KLMK 150512  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
112 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
UPDATED AT 222 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
QUIET AND CALM WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE ANALYSIS  
REVEALS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHER THAN A NARROW  
CORRIDOR OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, MOST  
PLACES ARE ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOW 80S.  
 
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WINDS WILL BEGIN  
TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY  
DEVELOP, BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT  
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT  
WINDS.  
 
TOMORROW, THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND  
SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL  
REMAIN IN A TOLERABLE RANGE (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S). SKIES WILL START  
OUT CLEAR TOMORROW, BUT A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER  
NORTHERN IL/IN MAY THROW SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUR WAY BY  
THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN OUR REGION  
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
UPDATED AT 228 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LOW  
ENVIRONMENTAL CIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO  
SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, GENERALLY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  
 
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE  
KENTUCKY BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR  
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST DEFLECTS MOST SYSTEMS AROUND THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT MAY  
SWIPE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND BRING SOME LOW CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK  
IN AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
UPDATED AT 110 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO  
THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD. I-64 CORRIDOR TERMINALS COULD SEE A  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DM  
LONG TERM...DM  
AVIATION...RJS  
 
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