377
FXUS63 KLMK 100533
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LESS AND WILL BE MAINLY 0.25" TO 0.50"
WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH ACROSS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.
* COLDER AIR ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
QUIETER WEATHER. HIGH WILL BE IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE
20S.
* THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO CENTRAL KY AND WILL WORK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BEFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE KY/TN BORDER
TONIGHT. SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK ALONG IT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOTH THE WKY/BG PARKWAYS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER INTO SOUTHERN IN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING AROUND 0.10" TO 0.25" FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH
JUST THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION EXPECTING NEAR AN INCH. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY BUT COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND THE KY/TN BORDER. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A SECOND STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, ALONG THE OHIO
AND OVER INTO THE BLUEGRASS WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL WORK OVER THE GREAT LAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS DECIDED TO ADD FLURRIES
AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED BUT THERE COULD BE A COATING ON
ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS OVER TO LOUISVILLE AND INTO SOUTHERN IN. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY BETWEEN 20-
25 MPH CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE TN VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO CALM AND TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD AS MODEST RETURN
FLOW WORKS AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM
THE EASTERN SIDE OF HUDSON BAY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WINDS
SHOULD BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SW, HELPING TO RETURN TEMPERATURES
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VAPOR TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM (WITH BLOCKING SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES) WILL
LIMIT OVERALL MOISTURE, WITH PREDOMINANTLY PACIFIC-SOURCE MOISTURE
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, WHILE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
UNLIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD FEATURE A COMPACT,
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PASSAGE, WPC 500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS THAT GENERAL TROUGHINESS IS FAVORED TO HANG
AROUND. AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION, IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY P-TYPES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE P-TYPE METEOGRAMS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CIGS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND VARIABLE WINDS AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THIS INITIAL
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS, THE MVFR STRATUS BECOMES MORE PATCHY, SO
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH MID-
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO CAUSE
TOO MANY ISSUES WITH VIS, WITH CIGS BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SETTLE IN LATER
THIS MORNING, AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN/CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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