263
FXUS63 KLMK 232034
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SNOW FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
* A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ON UPPER LEVEL/SFC ANALYSIS AS A NOR'EASTER
BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST US. FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS, A BROAD REGION OF DEEP NW
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH HIGHER PRESSURES/HEIGHTS LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. N/NW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED FOR A FAIRLY PERSISTENT STREAMER BAND OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY,
CONTRIBUTING TO IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN
AND THE KY BLUEGRASS REGION.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE EAST, GRADUALLY CAUSING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME LIGHTER. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE, WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD SEE ONE MORE
SNOW BURST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING, BUT
WOULDN'T EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. AS CLOUDS CLEAR AND
WINDS EASE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING. FORTUNATELY, SLACKENING WINDS
SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SINK INTO THE GULF AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, MILDER SW
FLOW SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW
TOMORROW, THOUGH DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO
THE REGION. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT A FEW AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
======= WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT =======
THE COLD FRONT WHICH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO GRIND TO A HALT SOMEWHERE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO OR UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, BUT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OUT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE MUCH IF ANY COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY MILD DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH CENTRAL KY WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPOTS SURPASS
60 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO BROADEN/FLATTEN OUT, WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
DAKOTAS/NE AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVE, A NEW AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE GULF SHOULD TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH THE STRONGEST IVT ANOMALIES REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION TYPES LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIQUID ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL PROPORTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
WHICH FEATURES A CHANGE TO/MIX WITH SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS POTENTIAL SOLUTION IS
REFLECTED IN THE 23/12Z GFS DETERMINISTIC. STILL, THE MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION IS WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, WITH SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOWING A STABLE/SATURATED PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN GENERAL,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE TN
BORDER, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1" QPF AROUND 50%
ACROSS THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS
TIME, WITH HEFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
ACTION STAGE AT LESS THAN 10% AT ALL RIVER SITES.
OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH GOOD BAROCLINITY OVER THE REGION AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MEANDER. IN GENERAL, HIGHS IN THE
40S ARE MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-64, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
50S MORE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN KY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
========= FRIDAY - NEXT WEEKEND =========
AFTER THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DE-AMPLIFIED, PRECLUDING STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE/COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. AS A RESULT,
MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE 50S ON FRIDAY INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY. A POLAR
STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WASH OUT BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THERE'S QUITE A
BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW, WE'LL STICK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND A MODEST STEP DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
NW WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL DISSIPATE EVENTUALLY LATER
IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING TO EASTERN LOCATIONS ONCE THE
SNOW FLURRIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
SLOWLY RAISING CLOUD CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICK AROUND AND A SW WIND
BUILDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BF
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