385
FXUS63 KLMK 122353
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MILDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY. WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE OHIO VALLEY IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MISS.
VALLEY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH HAS LED TO SW BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD RELAX A BIT AFTER SUNSET, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT WE'LL FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. EXPECT 5-10 MPH SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
COLDER VALLEYS, WHILE URBAN/ELEVATED AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW
30S.
ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DESCEND OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DESCENDING IN A
SIMILAR FASHION. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, CONTRIBUTING TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NE KY ACROSS OH TOMORROW, HREF MEAN
PROGS SHOW A BAND OF 45-50 KT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT INVERSION
BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STILL THINK
WE'LL BE ABLE TO REALIZE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED 40 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW, EXPECTED GUSTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY LIMITS,
THOUGH AN SPS MAY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS.
WARMER ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM EASILY INTO THE
50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KY WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 60 DEGREES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY, DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD SEND A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE SHARP NORTH-SOUTH
DESCENT OF THIS SYSTEM, VERY LITTLE IF ANY GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO BE ACCESSED, AND OVERALL MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES AREN'T
EXPECTED TO BE THAT ANOMALOUS. AS A RESULT, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
LESS THAN 0.25".
AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE
SW TO THE NW, WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPERATURES STEADY AND
EVENTUALLY COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING, SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SFC-
850 MB MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE MOISTURE SCOURS OUT THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE 12Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, PRELIMINARY HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND 1/2 INCH)
IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS. IF MOISTURE TRENDS MORE ROBUST AND LINGERS
DEEPER INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS AT LEAST IN THE 20S, AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS,
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY - NEXT WEEKEND...
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM DEPICTS A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LONGWAVE TROUGHING SIGNAL PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN COLD TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LOWER, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
SWING ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA; HOWEVER, NO ONE WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL (1+") SNOW
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE FIRST OF
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH ENHANCEMENTS
IN COVERAGE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
WAVES OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SSW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 15Z. PEAK
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
THICKEN AND STEADILY LOWER AROUND 00Z WED AND BEYOND.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...EBW
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