408
FXUS63 KLMK 301829
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
229 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
* A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNS TO
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY.
* DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEW POINTS RISE BY LATE WEEK AND
AFTERNOON STORMS RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WAS DOWN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF KENTUCKY WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S IN A FEW SPOTS.
WE STILL HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF KENTUCKY. ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WE EXPECTED THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SOUTH
OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN KY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION, WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SO WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AS WE MOVE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A CONTINUED DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. AS YOU HEAD SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
BLUEGRASS INTO THE I-65 CORRIDOR, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S, WITH SOME LOW 60S DOWN IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR SUNDAY, WE'LL START THE DAY OFF DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS, WE'LL SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO
GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FROM A
SYNOPTIC SCALE PERSPECTIVE, LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER SCANT. HOWEVER, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
TAKING PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE'LL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. LOWER
80S ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED AREAS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHERN KY NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE EDGE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN MONDAY AND
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
UPPER WAVE, THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THAT WAVE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN
THE BLUEGRASS REGION WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE SW AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN STARTING TUESDAY MORNING SETTLES INTO A
BREAKING DOWN OMEGA PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THIS OCCURS,
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. LIKEWISE, COMING FROM A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AREA, THIS
INCOMING AIR MASS WILL COOL OUR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND DRY THE
CWA SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS. DRY NE FLOW WILL DROP
PWAT VALUES TO NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.
THE LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS PWATS DOWN TO NEAR 0.5" ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. IN
OTHER WORDS, PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
TO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FAIR A LITTLE COOLER OR
RIGHT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO ISOLATED LOW 80S.
COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST US, PUSHING WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO
THE CWA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, BUT MORE NOTABLY THE DEW POINTS WILL RAISE AGAIN INTO THE MID
60S OR HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. RH WILL INCREASE THEN AND CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING ON FRIDAY, AND
AIDED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH
DEW POINTS ON THE RISE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE, GARDEN VARIETY POP-UP
STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT TO BE SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
TIMING OR ANY SEVERE THREAT. OVERALL, ONE CAN EXPECT MORE CLASSIC
EARLY SUMMER WEATHER FEELING MUGGY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON STORMS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 80S IN A FEW AREAS.
NEXT WEEKEND...
BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF DISAGREEMENT WITH INDIVIDUAL
MODELS, NOTING THE LACK OF STRONG STEERING FLOW IN THE UPPER TO MID
LEVELS. THE GENERAL TREND IS TO KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERHEAD WITH A
BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING CLOSELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD MODELS
UNDERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THIS SE HIGH AS THEY'VE DONE IN THE
PAST, RAIN CHANCES MAY BE DECREASED OR DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. THERE
ARE SUGGESTIONS OF A WIND SHIFT FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH, THOUGH THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THAT SE HIGH. FOR
NOW, EXPECT WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY A BREEZE OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP INTO THE 15-18KT RANGE
OVER AT LEX, BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
FOR BWG, ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST AT 5-8KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....MJ
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