580
FXUS63 KLMK 170508
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
* WARM AND DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
* STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOW-END
RISK OF STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH A PATCHY FROST LIKELY MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE DO HAVE A BAND
OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF BROKEN LOWER CLOUDS ALSO STRETCHES SW THROUGH
THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS ALONG A REMNANT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL
RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
THROUGH 5 PM EDT BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO EASTERN KY.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY.
UPSTREAM, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO, WHERE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL PASS EAST OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. A
CONSENSUS OF CAMS DEVELOPS A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KY SHORTLY
AFTER 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW RISK
(5-10%) A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD SURVIVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA, BUT IF THIS OCCURS, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS,
SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN US
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WE'LL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND MID-MS VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
SOUTHERN IN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (09-12Z) WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY, WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
===== SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY =====
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WE'LL SEE INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL
PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME (12Z-00Z).
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY. THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION FROM
NW TO SE WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC WARMING AND OVERALL DESTABILIZATION
ON SATURDAY. MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SW WINDS WILL PROVIDE ORGANIZATION
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY ORGANIZED CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
===== COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOOK
FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
REMNANT MCV THAT SPAWNED EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST, LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE SEEN DOWN AT KBWG BETWEEN 17/09-17/13Z DUE TO
THE THURSDAY EVENING RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 8-10KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 17-19KTS BETWEEN 17/16-17/23Z. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS OUT
TOWARD THE KHNB AREA. HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
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