094
FXUS63 KLMK 021820
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN KY. SMALL HAIL AND A COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUD ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
* AREAS OF FROST LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MANY AREAS IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FROST HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT AND A
FEW COLD SPOTS MAY HIT FREEZING.
* WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WATCHING CELLS NEAR THE WABASH AS THEY SCOOT SOUTHEASTWARD. WE MAY
GET SOME STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP IN THE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KY THIS HOUR. THESE SHOWERS ARE UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE AREA. STRONGER CORES ALOFT COULD
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL IN STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ROUGHLY LEWISPORT, KY TO CAMPBELLSVILLE, KY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
COLD-AIR FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THESE CELLS AS WELL.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MAIN STORY IS THE COLD AIR
COMING INTO PLACE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND WITH SKIES CLEARING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE AT FROST FORMATION ALMOST AREAWIDE.
ISSUED AN EARLIER FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE
TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 36 DEGREES. SIDE NOTE: NOT
EXPECTING THAT COLD AT THE SDF CLIMATE SITE, BUT MORE RURAL SECTIONS
OF THAT COUNTY LIKELY WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S. NBM CAME IN WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS. SURPRISINGLY CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THAT. FROST
ADVISORY HEADLINE WAS GENERIC WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. WE MAY HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS EARLY THIS EVENING TO SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE
WARNING IS NEEDED.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS THAT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST SITES. THAT RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAIN. IT
LOOKS TO BE TOO QUICK MOVING TO ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL TOTALS, LIKELY STAYING WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
---MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY---
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK AS THE SUNDAY SYSTEMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DURING THE DAY MONDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPENING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP REMAIN NORTH WHERE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK.
A WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE, SO TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY LOOK TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES NE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND LOOK TO BRING IN HIGHER QPF. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP TO THE NW. AN UPPER
LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
AND AMPLIFIES THE SW FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH THE AMPLE AMOUNT OF SHEAR DUE TO THE LLJ AND A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THESE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COULD PRODUCE 1-2"
OF RAIN.
AFTER THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK DON'T LOOK PROMISING TO BREAK THE 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION THIS HOUR AND BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER TO NEAR THE
WABASH REGION. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THUNDER POTENTIAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST, BUT HAVE SHOWERS ALONG THE KHNB/KBWG CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THAT HIGH WILL SCOOT BY QUICKLY TONIGHT AND BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-
074>078-081-082.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...RJS
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