906
FXUS63 KLMK 120101
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
901 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
* ISOLATED SWATHS OF 2+" OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ON
SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* A CUT-OFF LOW WILL KEEP DAILY STORM CHANCES AROUND FOR MONDAY WITH
LESS STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY STORM CHANCES THOUGH
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
AT THIS HOUR, 1015 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF ST.
LOUIS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO. ALOFT, A 500 MB TROUGH
IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW AND IS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST PER LATEST MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY. TO THE
EAST OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS, THE OHIO VALLEY SITS WITHIN A BELT
OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, LEADING TO
APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FAR AS INSTABILITY IS CONCERNED, A
GRADIENT IS NOTED IN SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND UPPER TN
VALLEY, SEPARATING MID-TO-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS TN AND
SOUTHWEST KY FROM LOW-TO-MID 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHERN IN AND KY. SOUTH OF THIS GRADIENT, APPROXIMATELY 2500-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE ARE PRESENT, WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG TO THE NORTH.
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HEATING,
COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND SFC LOW AS WELL
AS MID-LEVEL PVA SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF
CONVECTION: ONE PARALLEL TO THE SFC STATIONARY FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/NORTHERN KY, AND ANOTHER WHICH SHOULD
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN IL THAT
WILL RIDE THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KY
AND TN THIS EVENING. WHILE STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, THE GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE WITH THE LATTER AREA REFERENCED ABOVE. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH, SEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS, WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS LEADING TO A
LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS SHOULD
BE FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT, WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AFTER THAT.
WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT, TRAINING OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SOME FLASH FLOODING THREAT. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL 6-HR
LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN QPF SWATHS ACROSS THE AREA IN
EXCESS OF 2", WITH ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM QPF VALUES SHOWING A FEW
BULLSEYES EXCEEDING 4". WHILE THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING, THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING FLOOD
THREAT AS THE SFC LOW SPINS INTO WESTERN KY. CONVERGENCE BANDS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COULD KEEP SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW WORKED OVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS AFTER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO A LOW STRATUS
AND/OR PATCHY FOG LAYER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT NE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL START TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, HREF PROGS CONTINUE TO
FEATURE 1.8"+ PW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER. AMPLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING, AND HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STILL, WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA,
INSTABILITY (ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE) SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH LESS THAN 10 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT, THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW TOMORROW, WITH GARDEN-
VARIETY SUMMER STORMS EXPECTED. SINCE THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE LESS WELL-DEFINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE ON THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE. HOWEVER, A FEW SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KY. GIVEN THE LINGERING
FLOODING POTENTIAL, AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS,
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL KY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
***** MONDAY - WEDNESDAY *****
BY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES REMAIN AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE CUT-
OFF LOW FROM THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR STORMS BRINGING LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON (60-70%) IN COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND HIGHER
PWATS RANGING 1.6-1.9" MEANS THAT STORMS WILL REFIRE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK AROUND FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS ARE RATHER LIGHT,
BUT GENERALLY RANGE 0.25-0.5" IN A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE FROM THE
BLUEGRASS REGION TOWARDS BOWLING GREEN, KY. EVERYWHERE ELSE ON
AVERAGE SHOULD SEE <0.25", WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
OHIO. THOUGH CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, STORMS COULD DUMP AN INCH OR MORE IN SOME COMMUNITIES,
BUT FOR NOW, CHANCES OF ANYONE SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH ARE LOW
UNDER 10%. HIGHS DEPEND ON STORM COVERAGE, BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE DRIER AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE A HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY
TO BUILD IN MID TO LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS THE CUT-OFF LOW
RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE WEST AND WILL EVEN CAUSE EASTERLIES AT MID-
LEVELS. THIS CUT-OFF LOW WILL THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN AS IT ARRIVES IN WEST TEXAS. FOR OUR
AREA, HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE HIGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS CAN
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER KY/IN WILL DICTATE HOW WARM AND DRY WE GET
FOR LATER THIS WEEK. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SURFACE HIGH TRYING TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY FINALLY PUSH STORMS OFF TO
OUR SOUTH. REINTRODUCING POPS THOUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA CAN'T
BE RULED OUT AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY FROM THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAY'S LOW. REGARDLESS, HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AS THE CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES
AWAY, THIS MAY COUNTERACT THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS STORM CHANCES INCREASE
YET AGAIN FOR ANOTHER TYPICAL AFTERNOON OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT SHEAR UP UNTIL NOW WILL REMAIN
MODEST AT BEST AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S OR A
FEW LOW 90S IN THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS.
***** THURSDAY - SATURDAY *****
THE REST OF THE WEEK SEEMS UNSETTLED AS THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN WITH TROUGHING RETURNING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEEMS
THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OR
AT LEAST MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM
SHORTWAVES TRAVELING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST TO BRING DAILY
STORM CHANCES AGAIN. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
STORM CHANCES THAT WILL BE ROOTED OUT ONCE THESE DAYS APPROACH. IF
THE TROUGH IS TOO FAR EAST, THEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND DRY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. FOR NOW, EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO A FEW LOW 90S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 901 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY,
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES FOR SOME AMOUNT
OF TIME. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR RANGES
TONIGHT BETWEEN 6-12Z. BELIEVE CEILINGS WILL FIRST FALL AT BWG, THEN
LEX AND RGA, BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SDF AND HNB.
VISIBILITIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN VFR RANGES, BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR COULD QUICKLY DROP VISIBILITIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>026-
029>034-038.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ027-028-035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...KDW
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