847  
FXUS63 KLMK 141035  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE EXPANSIVE 1028MB SFC HIGH  
SITUATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE  
EASTERLY LATER ON TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD, BUT  
OTHERWISE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY WX  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY OF MID-  
LEVEL DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF OUR FRIDAY.  
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING, EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO  
NEAR 70F FOR MANY PLACES, AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 70F IN  
OUR URBAN AREAS. WE'LL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT WE  
ARE SURELY INCHING CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY. THE CPC 6-10 AND  
8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS GIVE HOPE TO THOSE WANTING WARMER  
TEMPS IN OUR AREA.  
 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT TO SEE SOME  
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS IN OUR EASTERN CWA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT A  
GREATER FROST THREAT DUE TO SE WINDS. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE  
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
TRANSITIONAL DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A CLEAR AND CRISP START, AND  
AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S EVEN IN THE FACE OF  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE  
TO THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  
WILL CARRY HIGH-END CHANCE OR LOW-END LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AS A  
FRONT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE  
UPPER FLOW, SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. WILL CARRY RAIN  
CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL DRY TIME  
IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ANY PRECIP THAT HAPPENS  
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR  
THUNDER, BUT NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
 
AROUND MID-WEEK, A RIDGE WILL BREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND  
EVENTUALLY SETTLE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OPENING UP FAIRLY  
BROAD AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE  
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS, BUT NOT  
VERY CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL SEE THIS FAR EAST.  
 
TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO BY DAY, AND TREND WARMER THAN NORMAL AT  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
IMPACTS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT.  
 
DISCUSSION: LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SITS  
OVERHEAD. A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 8-10K FEET EXPECTED FOR MOST  
OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS  
SLOWLY BECOME MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY THIS EVENING.  
 
CONFIDENCE: HIGH ON ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CJP  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...CJP  
 
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