921
FXUS63 KLMK 230247
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND
WHILE PRECIP COULD BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF DUBOIS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK
WE DO EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO FALL THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT,
AFTER WHICH READINGS WILL FLATLINE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO THE HI-RES PRODUCTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
MID-AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WE DID GET A LITTLE BIT OF
THINNING OUT EARLIER IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. THIS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO SPIKE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, AREAS WEST
OF THE NATCHER PARKWAY DIDN'T AND THEIR TEMPS REMAIN DOWN IN THE
LOWER-MID 30S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S. OVERNIGHT, COMBINATION OF CLOUDINESS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF AS MUCH AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP LIKELY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S IN MOST AREAS. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
BLUEGRASS AREAS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ROLL EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. A STIFF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP MOISTEN UP
THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WEST OF I-65. HOWEVER, BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, DECENT LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALLOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE
RAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN
THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF I-65. EAST OF I-65 TEMPS LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 43-48 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER MISSOURI. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DRIVE CONVERGING MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. AN
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE WINDS ABILITY TO MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 10-15 MPH, BUT AS
MOISTURE IS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED, RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA.
IN DOING THIS, A COLD FRONT TRIES TO FORM, BUT FRONTOGENESIS IS
LIMITED AND BROKEN. IN AREAS THAT SEE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS,
ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE BETWEEN SNOW
AND RAIN. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF EITHER, BUT SOME SNOW/RAIN MIX
APPEARS LIKELY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES DON'T CHANGE. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S
UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOUTHERN FLOW WARMS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, INTO
THE 50S. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE AT ANOTHER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
LIGHT SE WINDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
WITH CIRRUS CEILINGS BEING UNDERCUT BY A MID-LEVEL DECK BY DAYBREAK.
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS INITIALLY
REMAINING VFR. HOWEVER BY MID-AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE FUEL-ALTERNATE
CEILINGS IN SDF AND BWG, WITH THE LATTER EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO
IFR.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...RAS
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