642
FXUS63 KLMK 042359
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 98-104 RANGE. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
* A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF I-65. OVERALL, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND LIGHTNING.
* MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE NOTABLY COOLER
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. STILL HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
OF HEATING AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
HITTING 90. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RECOVER ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
BEING MIXED OUT LAST EVENING. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S WEST OF I-65 AND INTO THE UPPER 60S EAST OF I-65, WE'LL SEE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 90S OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S BEING REGULATED TO THE I-
165 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL CU FIELD
CONTINUE DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 4-5KFT
AGL, BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE'VE GOT A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE OVERTURNING THAT TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT WITH THE GUST
FRONTS SCOURING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WE'RE ALSO LACKING A
FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN JUST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER,
WE'RE LIKELY NOT GOING TO HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN AREAS
EAST OF I-65. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT OVER IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR WEST OF I-165 WHERE A FEW ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
FOR TONIGHT, ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING
SUN AS THE PBL BEGINS TO STABILIZE. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT,
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S.
FOR SUNDAY, STILL ANTICIPATE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO TOWARD THE AREA. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RISING INTO THE 1.7-
1.8 INCH RANGE. RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
LOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, WE HAVE MORE OF A
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, WEAK SHEAR, AND WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS WOULD PROBABLY TEND TO LESSEN THE CHANCE OF WET MICROBURSTS.
HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
WE ARE EXPECTING A BIT MORE STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW AND AN INCREASE
IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT INCOMING RADIATION AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER. WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS-CORRECTED SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. PEAK
HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL, SO WE
HAVE NO PLANS ON GOING WITH ANOTHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONT PUSH A LITTLE MORE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH HERE IF THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING, WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE DIMINISH. LOWS
AGAIN WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OFF SHORE IN THE PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM A BAGGY TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY. OUR
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY STALL
OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE, BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE WEEK. THE PATTERN
TO US RESEMBLES A TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
DRY MORNINGS GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVE CONVECTION.
OVERALL STORM STEERING MOTIONS WILL BE WEAK, SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 85-90 RANGE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
BY LATE WEEK, UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST AND
RESULT IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OUT OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT AND THIS WILL RE-INFORCE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH CONTINUED STORM
CHANCES. IF THE TROUGH CAN GET SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE SOUTHWARD, WE
MAY HAVE ENOUGH A NORTHWARD PUSH TO PUSH THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND BRING A DRIER PATTERN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS ALREADY
GENERATED A FEW WIND GUSTS. COULD STILL SEE HNB, BWG AND POTENTIALLY
SDF GET A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. THEN EVERYTHING LOOKS
TO DIMINISH BY OR AFTER 04Z. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS SMOKE
FROM FIREWORKS FOR SDF LATER THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WASN'T AS CONFIDENT AND LEFT
THESE OUT FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED A PROB30 OR MORE DEFINITIVE MENTION
OF SHOWERS OR STORMS TOMORROW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BTN
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