104
FXUS63 KLMK 272349
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO
TRAINING STORMS. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* SUMMER HEAT REMAINS IN PLACE HIS WEEK WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 100-110 BEGINNING MONDAY.
* INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS TO NOT AS HOT, THOUGH HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EVENT
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OFF IN WESTERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN
INDIANA, AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, AN
AREA OF AT LEAST 2" PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDS AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO OUR WEST AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
COMING HOURS. WHILE THE ELEVATED LLJ THAT WAS IN PLACE DURING OUR
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST, A NEW SHORTWAVE COINCIDING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE AIDED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. ANOTHER 25-30 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING JUST BEHIND
THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL ALLOW NEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN WHAT WILL STILL BE AN AREA
OF RICH MOISTURE.
AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH, THE MAIN TRACK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH SOME. THE WPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CWA IN A MODERATE RISK IN THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, HIGHLIGHTING THE MORE LIKELY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. PER THE 12Z HREF LPMM GUIDANCE FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION,
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SWATHS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE NBM ALSO PAINTS AN AREA OF 1-2" RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-64. FOR THIS AREA, EX
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT'S
EVENT, THOUGH AREAS OF 3"+ IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND/OR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS A
RESULT, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER THING TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS A LOWER-
END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOR AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A REPRIEVE FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S
RAINFALL HAVE DESTABILIZED SOME WITH SEMI-CLEARING SKIES. THIS HAS
ALLOWED MLCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO OVER 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN KENTUCKY,
ACTING AS A SPARK FOR THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA.
WITH THAT SAID, THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR TODAY HAS LEFT AN AREA OF VERY STABLE
AIR IN ITS WAKE. WHILE SOME DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR IN THE COMING
HOURS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH STABLE AIR IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF SEVERE CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WESTERN CWA. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
=====SUNDAY - TUESDAY=====
DESPITE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, SUNDAY FEATURES A
LARGE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL LAST FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AHEAD OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GULF STATES. WAA FROM SW FLOW, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
SW WHERE CLEARING WILL OCCUR THE EARLIEST IN THE DAY.
THE LARGEST WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE 90S AND 100S THIS WEEK. ON SUNDAY, FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. DEWPOINTS FROM THIS SW FLOW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S,
MEANING THIS NEW AIR MASS EXPECTED COMING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BRING VERY STUFFY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE YEAR
THUS FAR. CLIMATOLOGICAL 850-500MB HEIGHT VALUES FROM THE LATEST
HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BARELY MOVE
THIS WEEK, REACHING THE 95TH PERCENTILE BY MIDWEEK. LOWS REMAIN WARM
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THESE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
CONSIDERING THIS, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN KY/SOUTH IN HAS RECEIVED,
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
IF NOT FOR SUNDAY, THEN HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND CENTER OF THE HIGH COMES RIGHT
OVERHEAD. HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN THE
MID 90S WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPS RANGING 100-110 DEGREES DURING THE
DAY. THIS IS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT AND WARRANTS THOSE WORKING
OUTSIDE TO TAKE LONGER BREAKS, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND FIND WAYS
TO COOL DOWN WHEN POSSIBLE. THIS WEEK IS A GOOD TIME TO CHECK ON
THOSE WHO MAY NOT HAVE AC IN THEIR HOME AND CHECK ON YOUR NEIGHBORS
DURING THE DAY WHEN YOU CAN.
=====WEDNESDAY - WEEKEND=====
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS WEEK BUT THERE'S A CATCH. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW AND THE RIDGE
AXIS JUST SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE AIR TO FORM AFTERNOON CONVECTION PROVIDING SOME HEAT RELIEF.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS LOW FOR THESE STORMS, THOUGH SPOTTY COVERAGE
OF SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WILL STILL BE WARM
IN THE MID 90S WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPS STILL IN THE 100-110 RANGE.
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME, THOUGH WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE GULF KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM HEADING
INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY IS HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SPOTTY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
KY, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY NEAR BWG.
PREDOMINANT S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MVFR/IFR ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS BY MORNING, WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS IN
HNB. SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE MORNING FOR BWG WITH
EVERYONE'S CEILING HEIGHTS SLOWLY RAISING IN THE MID MORNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS. SW FLOW REMAINS
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ030>043-049.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>029-045>048-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BKF
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