449
FXUS63 KLMK 171757
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
157 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA (WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF THE WK
PARKWAY).
* STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THERE IS A
LOW-RISK OF STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
* MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
REMNANT MCV ASSOCIATED WITH LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE, AN
AREA OF CLEAR SKIES WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEPARTING MCV HAS LED TO A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE REGION. UNDER THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 60S,
WHILE FURTHER WEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO
THE LOWER 50S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET WITH SOME POCKETS OF FOG
POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS WHERE LAST EVENING'S RAIN OCCURRED.
FOR TODAY, REMNANT MCV WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN ITS WAKE, SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION. SKIES LOOK TO START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. A
BROAD/WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SEEN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 82-87 DEGREE
RANGE FOR HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER,
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS, ROUGHLY WEST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF THE
WK PARKWAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE HERE IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE, BUT
THE SIGNAL IN THE DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 20-30% POP IS WARRANTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS. STORMS COULD BE STRONG HERE WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
CORES.
FOR TONIGHT, LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET AS MIXING DIMINISHES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
IN PROGRESS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND FAR NORTHWESTERN KY COUNTIES TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN MID-UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY. SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR OUT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
EXPECTED BASED ON MODEL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER SE INDIANA AND
INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS COULD OCCUR, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN UP WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE I-65 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 18-21Z SATURDAY AND THEN EXITING THE LMK CWA BY 00-02Z
SUNDAY. WHILE THE EXITING OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL BRING AN
END TO ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION INTO LATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL OCCUR
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READING IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN MANY
AREAS, THE FAR EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS SPIKE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS, BUT WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
THE HEELS OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AT A
GOOD CLIP BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY EVENING TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGH SIN THE UPPER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS WITH LOWER-MIDDLE 60S
IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE BLUEGRASS WITH LOWER 40S IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY FROM SOUTHEAST
INDIANA THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, FROST ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
BLUEGRASS WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. A
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. MID-UPPER 70S ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S/50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5-6 KFT IS NOTED ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT THE TAF
SITES SHOULD STAY DRY.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL LOWER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW-END
MVFR CEILINGS (1500 FT) ARE LIKELY, AND BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME ON THE EXTENT
AND TIMING/DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER NW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
TSRA IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
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