271
FXUS63 KPAH 211123
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER MOST OF THE
REGION, IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT FREEZE IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING, UNLESS
WINDS DROP OUT SOON. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN INTACT WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SLIP TO
OUR SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH
WIND, BUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
BE CALM TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY RECOVERING TO AROUND 30
DEGREES, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT, AND
EVEN A LIGHT FREEZE.
TRIED TO GO ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, BUT EVEN THAT
KEEPS READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. WE DO HAVE WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
ON THIS SHIFT. IF ENOUGH OF THE AREA HAS A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE
THIS MORNING, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CALL AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON
AND END FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT SPRING.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
WARMER, SO WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH
GIVES MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CLIMBING
MONDAY AND SHOULD HOLD AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE FROST AWAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH, BUT THEY WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTH, THERE WILL BE SOME
FROST POTENTIAL, IF ANYONE STILL CARES BY THEN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND STRETCH
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COASTS STATES. ALOFT, A NICE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN, BUT PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST
AND WE WILL END UP IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
RATHER DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN, THE OVERALL OUTCOME IS THAT
WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SOME MORE CLOUDINESS WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE
50S. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH, WHICH MEANS THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS
ARRIVES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PLAY OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF. HOWEVER, KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED FOR NOW GIVEN THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE DATA.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS
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