005
FXUS63 KPAH 162333
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REGION. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LOTS OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A 20-60% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ONE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. A SECOND DISTURBANCE TAKING
SHAPE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KSTL WILL ALSO CONTINUE EASTWARD,
AND THE HRRR GENERATES THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR KMVN AND THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THAT ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OF FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS AND
EVANSVILLE INDIANA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE. THIS CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE
HRRR'S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
IF WE DO GET STORMS INTO THE AREA, THE HREF HAS 1000-2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE AND NEAR 200M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, THAT SHEAR IS THE RESULT OF SLIGHTLY
BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, SO IF IT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
INITIAL SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP UPSCALE AND TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, THE
POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD STILL SUPPORT A MORE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY, AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THAT WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SUNNY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
90S. THE NBM HAS A 50-80% CHANCE OF LOWER 90S SUNDAY OVER THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AND 10-30% CHANCES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY,
AND THE NBM HAS SIMILAR PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 90 DEGREES.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY OVER MOST
OF THE QUAD STATE. THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MONDAY. THE NBM HAS 750-1500J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK, SO A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS, BUT AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS.
AT THIS TIME, THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WEAK, SO
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH, BUT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ENSEMBLE PW FORECAST IS AT OR ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR
THE ENTIRE AREA, OR IF IT DOES, IT COULD STALL OUT NOT FAR
SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE. AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES RIDE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
THE NBM ACTUALLY HAS THIS WELL IN HAND AT THIS TIME (SO THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WE WILL BE
DRY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND!). THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS, IF NOT BELOW FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT KEVV AND KOWB IN
THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF TSRA BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO KEVV OR AT LEAST ITS
VICINITY IN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE, THE FORECASTS
ARE VFR. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXING IN THE MORNING AT
ALL SITES, AND GUSTS 15-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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