185
FXUS63 KPAH 281815
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PEAK HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 105 TO 110 EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID
70S.
- IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WE TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-
TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE LOW 100S. SMALL
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WE FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE RELENTLESS PATTERN OF STORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING! THE FINAL ROUND OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED OVER THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW AREAS DUE TO WATER REMAINING OVER NUMEROUS
ROADS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTH RESULTING IN A VERY HOT AND STEAMY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AT 1 PM HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
A 594-597DM RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE CENTERED JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST
EXTENDED HEATWAVE OF THE SEASON (PADUCAH HAS ONLY HAD 2 DAYS REACH
90 TO THIS POINT IN THE SEASON). DAILY HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S, COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHICH WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS PEAKING FROM 105 TO 110 IN MANY PLACES
EACH DAY. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITH THIS
PACKAGE GIVEN THE DURATION ASPECT (4 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH 105+ HEAT
INDEX). THERE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED RELIEF AT NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 70S.
AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS JUST EAST OF US THERE IS SOME HINT AT
CONVECTION TRYING TO WORK NORTH INTO PART OF WEST KY AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE THIS OUT, BUT IT APPEARS A BIT MORE
LIKELY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ALLOW A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME AIRMASS TO RESIDE ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT (SHORTWAVE ENERGY) UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. JUST APPEARS LIKE WHAT YOU'D TYPICALLY HAVE IN JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY PRODUCING HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE LOW 100S WHICH PROVIDES FUEL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SCT-BKN CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY HAVE SOME MVFR BASES BUT THOSE SHOULD RISE TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SCT
CU DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ MONDAY TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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