145
FXUS63 KPAH 221010
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK IS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG, MAINLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER WHERE EXCEEDING THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE WILL
BE MORE PROBABLE. OTHERWISE, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY ARE PROGGED AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. AS THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN, THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGES MORE EAST OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS INCREASES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS PREVIOUSLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING OVER
THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
ZONAL IN LINE WITH THE LREF, INCLUDING THE GEFS. GIVEN MEAGER
700 MB MOISTURE AND QUESTIONABLE 500 MB FORCING, ONLY A 10-15%
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 4-7 KTS, DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG
AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS AROUND 20%
AT BEST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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