584
FXUS63 KPAH 081040
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES ON FRIDAY, THREATENING DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
DUE TO LOW RH'S.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS
APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST IMPACT, BUT GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. PEAK TIMING FOR RAIN IS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
A WEAK FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL USHER IN DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR ARE TYPICALLY GOOD AT HANDLING THESE
SITUATIONS AND BOTH INDICATE RH'S FALLING INTO THE 15-20% RANGE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 13 IN SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHWEST IN, AND
THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 MPH AT MOST. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, THE RH'S ARE LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SO HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR
THIS.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS BEING
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY THREATEN DAILY RECORD HIGHS. DEW POINTS CREEP
UPWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION, BUT MAY REMAIN
QUITE LOW ACROSS THE KY PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST IN. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF RH'S FALLING BELOW 20% IN THESE AREAS, AS DEPICTED BY
THE HRRR/RAP. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. SO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EAST.
HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A FORECAST LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE NEAR MOBILE/PENSACOLA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED EAST COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND ALSO SLIGHTLY FASTER. AS
THE REMNANTS GET INGESTED INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. A LARGE
SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AND PIVOT NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OUR FAR EAST).
QPF AMOUNTS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH, STILL GENERALLY THINKING A GOOD 1
TO 1.5". ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THAT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM THE OZARK FOOTHILLS NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS (CLOSER TO MT VERNON). MEANWHILE,
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING 2" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER REMAIN
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST KY. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS STRONGER
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL, THEN IT'S POSSIBLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TREND HIGHER AND OVERACHIEVE AGAIN WHICH WOULD LEND TO A
GREATER FLOODING CONCERN.
850-925MB WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE STRONG AS THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS PUSH NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A STABLE
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE MAY KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA. FOR NOW, GENERALLY THINK WIND GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH (HIGHEST NEAR KY/TN BORDER), ARE THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE FOR WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH, PROBABLY WOULD PUT THAT AROUND 20-
30% CHANCE OF HAPPENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE 80S MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR
FRONT (LIKELY DRY) DROPS THROUGH ON TUESDAY THOUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 4-7 KTS TODAY
BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING KCGI AND KMVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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