522
FXUS63 KPAH 252325
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
525 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY IS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE, WHILE
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALLOW FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ICE STORM WARNING
PRODUCTS EXPIRE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE END OF WINTRY
ACCUMULATIONS, IMPACTS FROM THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD, SO
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AS SURFACES WILL BE TREACHEROUS.
-SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH INTERVALS OF DANGEROUS COLD WINDCHILLS
BELOW ZERO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST
DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 TO -20 ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE AREAS NEAR VAN BUREN AND
GREENVILLE, MO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE IS VERY LIKELY TO STAY BELOW
FREEZING THE ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD.
-FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF A LIGHT DUSTING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
AS SLEET HAS WORKED ITS WAY EAST OF THE QUAD STATE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WHAT REMAINS IS STRATIFORM AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW,
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 10-15 DEGREES. THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT BEGAN THE DAY NEAR NASHVILLE IS NOW WELL ON
ITS WAY EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STREAMING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THE DAKOTAS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
WHILE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ICE STORM WARNING ARE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 6PM CST AS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AFTERWARDS DROPS TO
NO MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN.
IN NORTHERN AREAS WHICH ONLY RECEIVED SNOW (WITH A FEW SPOTS
RECEIVING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW), SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING REMAIN 15-25
MPH. ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL TAKE QUITE
SOME TIME TO BE CLEARED SO CAUTION IS STRONGLY ADVISED TODAY AND
INTO THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD
STATE, WHICH HAD RECEIVED SLEET (AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY FROM
AROUND MURRAY TO GREENVILLE IN KENTUCKY AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST) FURTHER EXACERBATED HAZARDS. FOR THE PADUCAH CWA,
TODD COUNTY HAS AROUND 5% OF THE COUNTY WITHOUT POWER AT THIS
TIME (DOWN FROM A PEAK NEAR 15%), WITH OUTAGES MORE WIDESPREAD
OUTSIDE THE CWA IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY AND IN TN. USE CAUTION WHEN
SHOVELING AND BE CAREFUL OF ANY SNOWY AND ICY PILES SLIDING OFF
OF ROOFS.
OUR ONGOING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED IN THE DAKOTAS TODAY AS A 1040MB HIGH, WILL CONTINUE
TO FUNNEL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DROP TO
LOWS IN THE 0 TO -5 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT AS CLEARING SKIES AND
SNOWPACK PROVIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT, THEY’LL BE ADVECTING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND
CHILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BOTTOM OUT AT A BRUTALLY COLD -10 TO
-20 DEGREES. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
(COLDEST IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE/I-64 CORRIDOR, WARMEST IN
THE OZARKS), WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
THE MOST PART. A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS AND WIND
CHILLS A LITTLE LESS EXTREME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING AT 6Z TONIGHT WHICH REMAINS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. MAKE
SURE TO LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, BUNDLE UP IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS
NECESSARY, CHECK IN ON FRIENDS, FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS
(ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POWER OUTAGES), AND NEVER USE
GENERATORS INDOORS.
WITH CONTINUING TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MELTING SNOWPACK EARLY WEEK (OTHER
THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES), VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS REMAIN THE ONE AREA WHICH COULD REACH 32F ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DURING PERIODS OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
(TUESDAY) OR WESTERLY (WEDNESDAY) FLOW. ELSEWHERE,
MID-WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S AND RETURN TO 20 OR BELOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CEMENTING
IN THE MODEL OUTLOOK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK AHEAD, WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING BELOW 0. MORE COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEEK, THOUGH FAIRLY
CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM WIND CHILLS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MOSTLY SILENT POPS THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A LIMITED 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EDGES OF THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE LREF CONTINUES TO CARRY A 10-20% CHANCE OF A LIGHT
DUSTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE TUESDAY EVENING AND A
20-40% CHANCE OF A LIGHT DUSTING OVER MOST OF THE QUAD
STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BROADER AREA LOW PERCENTAGE
CHANCE SHOWS UP AGAIN, WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM EACH
ENSEMBLE, FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. THE NBM CAN AT TIMES
UNDERESTIMATE PRECIPITATION IN LOW QPF SITUATIONS SO
THIS WILL NEED MONITORING. IN EACH OF THESE POSSIBLE
INSTANCES OF LIGHT SNOW, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TRACE TO
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT THE MOST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN AND WHILE RESTRICTED BASES MAY LINGER, THEY
ARE SCATTERING AND OVERALL THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS ARE PAST
AND WE'LL BE NOTING IMPROVING TRENDS. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN RESTRICTED
BASES DURING THE DAY AGAIN TMRW, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ TONIGHT
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
KYZ001>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>008-010-011-013>016-018>020.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ009-012-
017-021-022.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page