911
FXUS63 KPAH 081722
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY, AND THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX READINGS TODAY WILL BE AROUND
100 DEGREES, AND IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY.
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES OF 75% TO 95% WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
- 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SUMMER CONTINUES TO KEEPS ITS HOLD ON OUR REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE 92 TO 99 DEGREE RANGE,
AND THE 94 TO 101 DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL
MAX OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES, AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE. IF THE MODEL BLEND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THESE VALUES, A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA (FA). THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF POTENTIAL CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD TAMP DOWN THESE VALUES, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, MODELS BRING A
SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE PAH FA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCES (75-95%) WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS WEST
KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. GOOD CHANCES (40-60%)
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WEST KENTUCKY AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
SPC DAY 3 INCLUDES SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN A MARGINAL RISK, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH STORMS BEING GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, WITH ON AND OFF 20-40% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
MORE SEASONABLE READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. READINGS WILL THEN TREND BACK DOWN
TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR
WITH CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TODAY,
AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING OUT
OF THE SW/SSW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...ATL
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