750
FXUS63 KPAH 291142
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 64 TODAY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ISOLATED TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OF SLEET.
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS SET TO BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
FLURRIES ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE QUAD STATE ARE
GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE EAST UP TO AROUND 30 IN SEMO'S WESTERN FOUR
COUNTIES.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW LOCALLY CONTAINS A
SLIGHT DIFLUENT PATTERN MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE
IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY TOWARDS CHICAGO. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR DRY AIR IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. A NW/SE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, ROUGHLY POSITIONED
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME, WITH DRIER AIR TO THE
EAST AND (COMPARATIVELY) MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF PRECIPITATION BUT
STILL HAVE SOME VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE AND THUS PRECIP TYPE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE SO FAR. WHILE SOME
MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL WET-BULBING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES, THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC FOR AMOUNT OF
COOLING, AND THE FORECAST TREND IS WARMER WITH LESS SNOWFALL.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SEMO AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL
START OUT WITH SNOW, TRANSITIONING TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE, BUT ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE A
DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES AT THE MOST. AREAS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND WITH BETTER VORTICITY CAN SEE SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF
SNOW WHICH CAN LEAD TO BRIEF IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS. THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-2 INCHES AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JEFFERSON TO WABASH
COUNTIES. A BRIEF MIXING/TRANSITION TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE BUT
FOR THE MOST PART P-TYPES SHOULD BE SNOW TO RAIN TODAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH HIGHS IN THE NEAR 40 TO MID-40S RANGE, BRINGING AN
END TO ANY IMPACTFUL ROAD CONDITIONS. ARRIVAL TIMES FOR RAINFALL
IN THE EAST HAVE SHIFTED A BIT LATER AND OVERALL QPF IS REDUCED
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EARLIER
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-35 MPH IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY PRECEDES HIGH PRESSURE.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH AN EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. GULF MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING TO THE WEST SENDS LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS VARY WITH THE INTERACTION AND TIMING OF
THESE STREAMS. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE QUAD STATE WHILE THE OTHER ENSEMBLES ARE LESS
ACTIVE. THE NBM APPEARS HIGHER ON SNOWFALL THAN ALL OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH MAY PARTLY BE DUE TO BLENDING COOLER/DRIER
RUNS WITH WARMER/MOISTER RUNS. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS,
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING A BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN. SOME AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS TO BE EXPECTED, BUT
DEGREE OF IMPACTS NEEDS FINE TUNING. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER QUICK
MOVING, EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD THERE BE SNOW COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE COLD MID-WEEK. ANOTHER MESSY
SPLIT STREAM PATTERN MAY SET UP LATE WEEK WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME LOW END POPS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE QUAD STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LIKELY TO BE SNOW IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SEMO AND S ILLINOIS WHILE ELSEWHERE RAIN WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES IS MORE LIKELY. LATE MORNING, SNOW
SWITCHES TO RAIN EVERYWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFT
TOWARDS WESTERLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY DROPS
ACCOMPANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH THE
EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
ILZ075>078.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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