850
FXUS63 KPAH 220431
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1031 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT, THE WARM UP IS ON WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CHRISTMAS DAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES!
- LOTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH GOOD CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
LESSER CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
WELL, WE MUST HAVE MADE SANTA'S NICE LIST BECAUSE WINTER WILL BE
NOWHERE TO BE FOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. WE HAVE DEFINITELY
PREPAID FOR THE MILD WEATHER, GIVEN THE FAST START OLD MAN
WINTER GOT EARLIER THIS MONTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE QUAD STATE
TONIGHT, LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES 25-30. HOWEVER, THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY MONDAY, ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP.
MEANWHILE, A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION, LEADING TO A NICE WARMING TREND.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. AS THE
MOIST LAYER DEEPENS, ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A HIGH
POP LOW QPF EVENT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE WITH THE ONSET
TIMING AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENT. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE A BIT
LATER INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WOULD
DEVELOP, SO BACKED OFF ON POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY ARE EXPECTED TO GET WET, ALONG WITH
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
BUT FARTHER NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT
SHOULD SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
BUT THE DRIZZLE COULD CONTINUE WHILE THE I-64 CORRIDOR MAY CLEAR
OUT FOR A WHILE. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT RIGHT BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE ENDING UP IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DECENT
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT. THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN INTACT, SO
THERE IS NO THREAT OF THUNDER OR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
BACK TO TEMPERATURES, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER TONIGHT
UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION
COULD REACH 70 DEGREES OR MORE. FRIDAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE TO
REACH RECORD HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD
SHATTER MAX MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE WARM STRETCH. TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
UNDER A SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD DECK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PICK UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BRING IN SOME LOW CLOUD
COVER AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY BUT KEPT THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE OUTLOOK PHASE
FOR NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG
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