572
FXUS63 KPAH 072309
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND.
- FIRE DANGER IS HEIGHTENED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S PERCENTILE.
- A WARMING TREND RESUMES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2024
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2024
SOME CU IS SQUEEZING OUT THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE OTHERWISE DRYING
AIR MASS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM IA/WI/IL. IT'LL
CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL IL BY TMRW MORNING, AND ANCHOR ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY THRU TMRW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE REFRESHING FETCH
OF COOL/DRY FLOW INTO THE REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY, THE LONG WAVE TROF IS OVER THE NORTHEAST, SO OUR
HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A WARMUP,
RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WORK WEEK. WE
PUSH 90F DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD, BUT FORTUNATELY, DEW
POINTS STAY DOWN IN THE 40S THRU MONDAY, AND THE 50S TIL WEEK'S
END, WHEN THEY RETURN TO AROUND 60F; THIS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE FORECAST TIL THEN. WHEN RAIN CHANCES DO
RETURN, THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THEY BE SCANT/GLANCING CHANCES,
LIKE THE EURO SUGGESTS, OR A ROBUST, TROPICALLY LINKED CHANCE,
LIKE THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING. THE ENSEMBLES, AT THIS WRITING,
LEAN TOWARD THE FORMER, BUT IT'LL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE UPON,
PARTICULARLY FOR BIG OUTDOOR EVENTS PLANNED DURING THAT TIME
FRAME.
DRY RH IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE, COMBINED WITH CPC'S DROUGHT-
WORSENING PROJECTION, WILL MAKE FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY-TUESDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT THESE DAYS AND THUS
PRECLUDE THE NECESSITATION FOR HEADLINES, BUT BURN BANS ARE IN
PLACE FOR A NUMBER OF LOCALES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2024
THE TAFS ARE VFR. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE N TO NE AT 4-8 KTS THROUGH THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
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