038
FXUS63 KPAH 021737
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
A PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEATWAVE WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 103-109 DEGREES. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
NEEDING TO EXTEND ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT HEADLINES INTO SUNDAY.
- MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES AND SEVERAL RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL ELEVATE HEAT IMPACTS TO
AN EXTREME LEVEL EVEN MORE THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT PROVIDE RELIEF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AT
THE EARLIEST, WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
IT IS SCORCHING HOT AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE QUAD-STATE. NOONTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE IN GENERAL ABOUT ONE TO TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AT 96-98 AT POPLAR BLUFF TO MT. VERNON AND 93-96 EAST
OF THERE. LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ARE PROVIDING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY LOOK VERY SIMILAR WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ONLY
AMPLIFYING, IF ANYTHING. LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 70S, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS.
BY SATURDAY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA BOWS
SOUTHWARD IN A WAY THAT PRODUCES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ALSO SENDS A BACKDOOR "COLD" FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST. LCL HEIGHTS ARE VERY HIGH AS THIS FRONT COMES
THROUGH DUE TO DEEP MIXING WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL SITTING AT 590-592 DM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS HANDICAPPING OUR POPS PRETTY LOW PRESUMABLY AS A RESULT. THE
CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD IS
30-50% BUT IN ANY ONE 6 OR 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD THE CHANCE
APPEARS PRETTY SMALL/DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
STILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 100 SUNDAY-TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SNAPS RIGHT BACK INTO PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE LOOK LIKELY
TO CONTINUE A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER, IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S, BUT I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE THOSE START TO
TREND UP GIVEN THE 598+ DM 500MB HEIGHTS AND FULL SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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