297
FXUS63 KPAH 182345
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE HOT WEATHER.
- AN OVERNIGHT MCS MAY BRING SOME SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WESTERN
MOST COUNTIES BY TOMORROW MORNING. WE ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- TOMORROW EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE'RE IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS, BUT SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY IS MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SPARK AN MCS TONIGHT THAT WILL WORK
ITS WAY TOWARD THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS MCS LATE
OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AFTER A LULL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHERE STORMS FIRE UP AGAIN IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WE'RE IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR TOMORROW EVENING'S
ACTIVITY WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, BUT SOME HAIL AND
A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT WHERE LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW, TIMING FOR TOMORROW IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE THING, BUT THINKING MAINLY AFTER 4 PM WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
BY FRIDAY THE BROAD TROF AXIS ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS IN OVERHEAD AND BRINGS BACK THE PLEASANT, SEASONABLE
WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BKN MID
CLOUD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION AFTER 10Z OR SO, AND
GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THEREFORE, HAVE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF -TSRA AT KCGI/KMVN. SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION AS WELL. RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS ARE PROBABLE, BUT CIGS MOST LIKELY WILL STAY VFR. MID
CLOUD MAY TRY TO SCT OUT BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...SP
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