945
FXUS63 KPAH 041902
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES PEAKING ABOVE 100 FOR THE
7TH CONSECUTIVE DAY.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW
100 MOST DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
THROUGH SUNSET, WHICH DEFINITELY SUPPORTS THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE NO NEED TO CONTINUE IT INTO
SUNDAY OR BEYOND.
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000J/KG WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND AT
LEAST THE PURCHASE AREA OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT THE DCAPE
IS STILL OVER 1000J/KG, SO SOME HEALTHY DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT HOPEFULLY NOT AS PROMINENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
AN MCS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD
POSSIBLY REACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE BY
EARLY EVENING. DCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF IT ARE AROUND 1500J/KG, SO
SOME ACCELERATION IS POSSIBLE. THERE CERTAINLY IS POTENTIAL FOR
THE LINE TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION, BUT IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH
THE QUAD STATE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH SOME
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND, GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE QUAD STATE, WHILE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY SETTLE IN AT THE SURFACE. THE TROUGHINESS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAT OF EACH DAY. LIKEWISE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA COULD IMPACT KCGI, KPAH, AND KMVN THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIMITED TS TO
KMVN AND KCGI, AS IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER
EAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page