479
FXUS63 KPAH 260844
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS HIGH AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN THERE IS A 70-95 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST IN.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 80 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AND A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WIND CHILL VALUES FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST
IN!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WARM/SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LINGERS OVERHEAD. THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A 70-
95 PERCENT PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
70 DEGREES TODAY AWAY FROM THE PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST IN. FOR A
COMPARISON, MANY OF THE RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE
LOW 70S. RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOW RECORDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE
BROKEN.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GREATER THAN
OR EQUAL TO 200 J/KG ARE ONLY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT OVER MAINLY SEMO
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THAT IS LARGELY A RESULT OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THE SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40-50KTS OUT OF THE WEST AND 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30-40KTS OUT OF THE WEST. THAT WOULD PUT THE SHEAR VECTORS
ORTHOGONAL TO THE LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS. AGAIN,
NOT LOOKING LIKE A HIGH-END SEVERE THREAT, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR AND MAYBE A BRIEF/WEAK SPIN UP
TORNADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HIGHER SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS LED SPC TO OUTLOOK THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, WINDS
MAY BE QUITE GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE AREA. IN FACT, GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30
MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (ABOUT A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE)
IN SEMO INTO SOUTHERN IL. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND A HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT, A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, NO
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. IN FACT, THERE IS ONLY
ABOUT A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
(AROUND 50-60 PERCENT). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (60-70 PERCENT
CHANCE) THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
(LOW VFR TO MVFR) ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. S TO SW WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO 7-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, AND THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LIFT
TO VFR OR SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS
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