418
FXUS63 KPAH 110539
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1239 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT, PRIMARILY EXITING OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- SOUPY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MAY LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH INCLUDES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. THERE IS A
70-90% CHANCE AT DEW POINTS REMAINING BELOW 60 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY! THIS APPEARS SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE REGION TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING (AND
STRONGER WIND SHEAR) WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION LIKELY WON'T REACH OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 02-03Z
(LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT) WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AS
WELL. MAY STILL HAVE AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO TO PLAY WITH FOR A BIT
THOUGH. THUS, ITS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE
LEVELS WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BUT OVERALL LOOKS PRETTY
LOW END. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT SEEMS
THE LINE SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LARGELY PREVENT ANY ISSUES.
SHOULD SEE LINGERING CONVECTION EXIT WEST KY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN HELPING TO USHER IN MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY
(DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON)! THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FIRST
AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE MO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
BIT OF AN UPTICK IN WIND SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT LAID OUT ACROSS OUR AREA COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ALSO APPEARS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS AS
WELL. THE WINDOW LOOKS TO BE ANYWHERE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THIS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER, DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LREF GUIDANCE HAS A 70-90% CHANCE AT DEW POINTS
REMAINING BELOW 60 ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO HIT 80 ON MONDAY AND ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME,
IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW LOOKS TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITY BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LREF SHOWS A 50% CHANCE AT
TEMPERATURES HITTING 90 AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
DIURNAL BASES FEW-SCT TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SCT-BKN TMRW WITH
LOW-END VFR CIGS POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOUTH
WINDS TMRW MAY PICK UP A LITTLE GUSTINESS AS WELL AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075-081-085.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ100.
IN...NONE.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ007>009-011-012.
DISCUSSION...SP
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