135
FXUS63 KPAH 031106
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
A PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEATWAVE WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 103-110 DEGREES. THERE IS A 30-80% CHANCE OF
NEEDING TO EXTEND ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT HEADLINES INTO SUNDAY
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND WEST KENTUCKY.
- MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES AND SEVERAL RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THESE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL ELEVATE
HEAT IMPACTS TO AN EXTREME LEVEL EVEN MORE THROUGH THE START
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT PROVIDE RELIEF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AT
THE EARLIEST, WITH ONLY A 10-25% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR PRIMARILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER HIGH HOLDS
FIRM OVER THE QUAD STATE. NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING. WITH A MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT WIND AT
NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S,
WHICH WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND WILL
PROVIDE A QUICK START TO THE DAY'S WARMING TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE NBM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ALONE.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WITH ANY LOWER READINGS VERY LOCALIZED
AND THEREFORE HARD TO ACCOUNT FOR IN THE GRIDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO LOW IN SOME PLACES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, BUT THE RESULTANT HEAT
INDICES SEEM REASONABLE, GENERALLY IN THE 103-110 RANGE ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE.
THE PERSISTENT EXTREME HEAT AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO RAPID DRYING OF VEGETATION ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THAT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WILDFIRE STARTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THANKFULLY, WITH LIGHT WINDS RAPID SPREAD IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE EXTREME HEAT WILL CREATE VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
FOR THOSE RESPONDING TO THE FIRES.
AS FOR RECORDS, RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
AT MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE, NO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, IT WILL BE REAL
CLOSE AT CAPE GIRARDEAU AND EVANSVILLE ALL THREE DAYS.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS, WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND PENNYRILE. GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT AND
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE, IT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT ANY STORMS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY RESULTING IN NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS. THE NBM
IS STILL HOLDING ONTO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE PURCHASE AREA,
SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS PINNED DOWN BETTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT OVER CARTER AND RIPLEY
COUNTIES IN MISSOURI, UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES MAY CONTINUE
(50-80% CHANCE). THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE DEWPOINTS DROPPING
WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH LOWER 60S COMMON ON MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK OVER THE REGION BEGINNING
MONDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDICES NEAR
100 OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND
POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD NOT
SUPPORT ANY HEAT HEADLINES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CARTER AND
RIPLEY COUNTIES WHICH MAY NOT SEE AN END TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. A SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10KTS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW CU
AT 6-8KFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page