210
FXUS63 KPAH 182008
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, DRY TILL SUNDAY.
- 50-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BRINGING UP TO AROUND 2" OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND
SUNSET. BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY AS A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH THE TROF BUT DO NOT AFFECT US. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY TILL SUNDAY. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT IN LOWER
DEW POINTS, AROUND 60 DEGREES, WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY WILL YIELD TO A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BRING A 50-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACROSS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY MODELS GREATLY
DIVERGE (PARTICULARLY THE EC VS GFS) IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. A WARM
FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTH ON MONDAY THEN MOVES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EC BRINGS PRECIP WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS US DRY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RETURN TO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ADVECTED MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT DEWPOINTS
WILL RETURN TO THE 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTH AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5-9 KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD/ZIEGLER
AVIATION...
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