977
FXUS63 KPAH 060547
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SCATTERED CHANCES PEAKING AROUND
40-60% EACH DAY. NO PARTICULAR DAY IS A WASH OUT, BUT FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED WITH MORE SPORADIC ACTIVITY.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL YIELD MORE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105
DEGREES.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PUTTING AN
END TO THE WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A BROAD H5 TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SFC BOUNDARY IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUND
A 597 DM RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
INTERVALS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING AROUND 40-60% EACH DAY. THE
FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AS A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVES THROUGH WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS
MODEST AT BEST, FAVORING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS. SPORADIC RAIN CHANCES SHIFT MORE EAST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING.
THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS MORE LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE AN INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE NBM
ARE PROGGED IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN. THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY PUT AN
END TO THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RETURNING
BACK TO THE 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. GROUND FOG NEAR BODIES OF WATER
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR CLOSE TO FAVORABLE
FOR A LITTLE BIT THICKER LAYERS OF FOG IF ENOUGH RADIATIVE
COOLING CAN OCCUR. AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER KANSAS THIS
EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH MIDDAY.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE VFR BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
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