159
FXUS63 KPAH 021142
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION, AND AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-20% CHANCES) ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI,
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY.
- A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY, BUT
BETTER CHANCES (30-50%) ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE
DEGREES. AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 112 DEGREES. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES
(15-20%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WILL DO
LITTLE TO MITIGATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN REACH THE MIDDLE 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN AND PUSHING FARTHER
EAST WILL ALLOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND TO 25-50%, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. JUST HOW
MUCH THIS WILL TAMP DOWN TEMPERATURES IS IN QUESTION, AND HEAT
INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE STILL LIKELY.
EXTENSIONS OF HEAT PRODUCTS INTO THE WEEKEND ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SCT-BKN040 CUMULUS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z-02Z. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20Z-01Z, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
ISSUANCE. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5KTS OR
LESS BY 15-18Z, THEN WILL BECOME CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z. BRIEF
DIPS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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