989
FXUS63 KPAH 091706
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1206 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD IS
DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A HEAVY RAIN HAZARD CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- THERE IS A SIMILAR, LINGERING, ALBEIT SMALLER MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE INTO AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND; A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. 1 TO 3
INCHES CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST ON AVERAGE, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TWICE THAT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IF AND WHERE
STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AS THE NEAR TERM ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY WARM AND
UNSTABLE, EXPECT AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING TO TOUCH
OFF/EXPAND OUR STORM THREAT. THE LATEST CAM MODELING SUGGESTS IT
MIGHT BE MORESO IN THE EVENING VS THE LATE PM, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT EARLIER DEVELOPMENT ENTIRELY. THE WAVE BRINGS INCREASED
SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT, SO THE SLIGHT RISK SVR
CONTINUES WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SUCH HAZARD. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAINS, ESP IF THEY CAN
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE LINGERS ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
THEN THERE IS A RELATIVE WANE BEFORE ANOTHER SIMILAR LOOKING
WAVE TOUCHES OFF CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RINSE
AND REPEAT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO WORK WITH FROM THEIR
PARENT DRIVING WAVE(S) TO KEEP A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, WHILE THE CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN HAZARD ONLY
HEIGHTENS THE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL BASED UPON REPEAT OR
TRAINING STORMS DUMPING HIGH PW RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS.
WHILE WE HAVE 1-3" IN THE STORM AVERAGE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
FORECAST GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS TWICE OR MORE THAT, ESP IF THEY CAN REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREAS...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR DAILY STORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS THE MODELS GET A LITTLE MUDDIER WITH WHEN/WHERE THEY SET UP
THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE; THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SERVE
TO STOP OUR DAILY CHANCES AND HEAT US UP A LITTLE. FOR NOW,
WE'RE LOOKING AT BY MID WEEK SEEING ITS DRYING/WARMING IMPACTS
WITH HIGHS MORE REGULARLY PUSHING 90F AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
OUTSIDE ISOLATED DIURNAL ACTIVITY, STORM CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS OFFERED. CIGS MAY
RESTRICT TO MVFR AND VSBYS TO IFR AS THE PRIMARY WAVE DRIVING
CONVECTION MAKES LATE NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY PASSAGE. RECOVERY
TOWARD VISUAL FLIGHT RULES SHOULD COMMENCE BY TMRW PM, BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST PICTURE BY TMRW NIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
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