949
FXUS63 KPAH 022243
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
443 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BRINGING A 15-25% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TO AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE
BORDERS.
- DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A MAJOR WARMUP FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL, WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30'S NEAR I-64 AND MID TO UPPER 30'S ELSEWHERE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE TREND FOR LOWER QPF AND SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL
CHANCES CONTINUES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY NORTHEAST WINDS, AND
A FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE WAVE ULTIMATELY MEANS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL LIKELY STAY WELL ENOUGH SOUTH. STILL, LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG THE TN AND AR STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY AROUND A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH. THIS HIGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM, WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP. HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH LOWS IN THE 40'S TO LOWER 50S.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OUT WEST, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH A
40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN INCREASING DYNAMICS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK POOR WHICH IS LIMITING
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND RESULTS IN LIMITED IF ANY THUNDER
CHANCES FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMETHING WATCH
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
PERSISTENCE TRACKING AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST RAIN
WILL LARGELY AVOID THE TERMINALS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. OVC CIGS WILL LINGER, THOUGH THE MOST RESTRICTIVE
BASES SHOULD BE SCOURING OUT. OVERALL BASES SHOULD ULTIMATELY
START TO SCATTER IN THE NORTH DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST, WORKING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME BUT HOLDING AT
KCGI/KPAH LIKELY TIL JUST AFTER VALID EXPIRATION TIME THIS
PACKAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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