723
FXUS63 KPAH 161727
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START FEELING MORE LIKE
SUMMER-TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF MID TO UPPER 80S
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THERE IS ABOUT A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO MAINLY OVER SE ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODEST RISKS FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY EMERGE IN THIS PERIOD, MOST LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE RISKS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH OF JET-LEVEL ASCENT
ARE FUELING WEAK SHOWERS THAT SEEM TO MOSTLY NOT QUITE BE
REACHING THE GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING. A SMALL TROUGH OVER
OKLAHOMA IS MOVING THIS WAY PROJECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT ANY LITTLE OOMPH COULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM SO WE MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH
FAIRLY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER
SWIN AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WHERE YOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
COMBO OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT (MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND AFTERNOON HEATING TO BUILD UP A FEW
STORMS. IF WE WARM UP AS MUCH AS FORECAST, MLCAPES WILL HIT
2000-2500 J/KG, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ABOUT 30-35 KTS SO A
LITTLE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORM WOULD BE AT LEAST POSSIBLE.
I THINK THE BETTER BET IS IT DOESN'T WARM UP QUITE THAT MUCH AND
WE FIGHT RESIDUAL 800MB WARM AIR WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE APPARENT
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE TO SOMETHING LIKE 5-10% OVER SWIN/NW
KENTUCKY WITH WIND PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT IN SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH A SMALLER RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION (ROOTED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION).
THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO HOT,
HUMID AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US SENDS AN INITIAL WAVE THAT
STILL BRUSHES TO OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR WITH WARMER AIR AROUND
850MB. WOULD NEED PRETTY DEEP LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION AND IT IS POSSIBLE BUT THE 30-50% CHANCES PAINTED FOR
PRECIP/STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE PARENT
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ROTATING AROUND WE END UP IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET TUESDAY EVENING. WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE RETURN OF WESTERN GULF AIR
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.7 OR 1.8 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS PRETTY POOR UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLEARS SO DESPITE
2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL DOESN'T
APPEAR EXCEPTIONAL. STEADY LIFT, INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT DOES HOWEVER LOOK SUPPORTIVE
STILL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALTHOUGH OVERALL QPFS ARE STILL
NOT SUPER-IMPRESSIVE. WE MAY END UP FINDING A NICE SPOT IN
BETWEEN BENEFICIAL LEVELS OF RAIN WITHOUT GETTING INTO A FLOOD
SCENARIO AND WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WHICH
WOULD BE QUITE UNSEASONABLE!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR
CONVECTIVE TIMING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM KMVN
THROUGH KOWB. IT WILL BE A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF TIME AT KMVN
NEAR 00Z, AND LONGER PERIOD, MUCH OF THE EVENING, AT KEVV AND
KOWB. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, SO USED PROB30S WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO HANDLE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY, AND THAT WILL ALLOW SOUTH
WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY WITH MIXING IN THE MORNING.
GUSTS 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMVN
AND KCGI.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS
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