650
FXUS63 KPAH 171733
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 103-109 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTH
ALONG I-64.
- MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ARRIVES
ON MONDAY, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WAVE BEGINS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MORE SEASONABLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
A STOUT 597 DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MORE
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES, TRANSLATING TO DAILY
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103-109 DEGREES. WHILE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING
ITS APPROACH FRIDAY, THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 60S. DESPITE THE
DRIER AIR, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 100 DEGREES
THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THESE REASONS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LATE SEASON DANGEROUS HEAT
WAVE PREVAILS.
MEANWHILE, THE AFORMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A 20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG I-64.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST, BUT A GREATER RISK ARRIVES ON
MONDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FA. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK AT 30-40% CHANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ON THE NBM, AS THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GOOD NEWS IS RELIEF ARRIVES BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING MORE SEASONABLE, BUT RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER. THERE IS HOWEVER A LARGE SPREAD ON THE NBM DISTRIBUTION
AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD THE RIDGE BACK IN WHILE A TROUGH
PREVAILS MORE ON THE GFS WITH A UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH INTERMITTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS TURN LIGHT & VARIABLE
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 4-5 KTS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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