121
FXUS63 KPAH 291112
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS QUICKLY MAKE A RETURN
ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.
- RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, PEAKING AT A 50-80% CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A 20-50%
CHANCE OF TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING.
NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE NBM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP WITH THE STRONG MIXING
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
OVERACHIEVING AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN FORECAST,
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WITH THE
RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY, CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE NBM FORECAST, BUT
WE DID USE CONSSHORT IN PLACE OF THE NBM TO LOWER DEWPOINTS A
FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP AT
LEAST TO THE 25-30% RANGE TODAY, AND THEY COULD GO EVEN LOWER IF
TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE NBM FORECAST AGAIN. SIMILAR TRENDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, SUCH THAT THURSDAY IS NOW DRY, EVEN IN
THE NBM. THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF FORESTED
AREAS, THE NBM HAS A 70-100% CHANCE OF REACHING 90 OR ABOVE
THURSDAY AND A 30-90% CHANCE WEDNESDAY. THE IMPACT OF HUMIDITY
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EVEN WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AND BECOMING GUSTY ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE STUCK IN THE
50S WEDNESDAY AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING IN ON THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDOW
FOR OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 90 ONCE MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE OF KENTUCKY.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS/RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED, MOSTLY WELL BELOW 500 J/KG, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY. THAT SAID, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS FORECAST HAVE COME DOWN INTO THE 1-2"
RANGE, WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS EXTREME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
NBM FORECAST STILL HAS POPS RUNNING THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO
MONDAY, SO WITH THE EXPECTED SHORTER DURATION AND LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER, MOST PLACES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE A HALF INCH, WITH A
LUCKY FEW GETTING CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THE 00Z GEFS PROBABILITY
OF A TOTAL OF 1" OR MORE IS ONLY 20-50%.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL LIKELY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE QUAD STATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR. THE NBM HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT'S ALMOST
AS IF FALL WERE HERE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. A LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP WITH
MIXING TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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