445  
FXUS63 KPAH 011735  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1135 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021  
 
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021  
 
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE LAST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION,  
BUT CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG WITH HEALTHY NORTH BREEZES. CLEARING  
SHOULD BEGIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY  
SUNRISE, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY  
AFTERNOON. WITH THE NORTH FETCH AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED, WENT  
WITH LOWER MOS DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD  
DROP BELOW 40% OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
DESPITE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY, MUCH OF THE 00Z  
GUIDANCE ALLOWS A COMPACT UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS  
KEEPS IT JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE MOST  
LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND IN WEST  
KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN  
INCH IF ANYTHING REACHES THE AREA AT ALL.  
 
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE THE NBM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWS TONIGHT WHEN THE COOLER CONSMOS NUMBERS  
WERE MIXED IN. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW  
FREEZING, WE MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE  
FORECAST TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION  
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE THERE WOULD BE ANY CONCERN  
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021  
 
THE LONG TERM PROVIDES A LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE QUAD  
STATE. INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT  
MORE NORTHERLY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST AND  
A RIDGE FORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST, MIGRATING TO THE PLAINS FOR THE  
WEEKEND. THE LONGEST MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO BE THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO  
FEATURES, THE QUAD STATE IS LIKELY TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE  
INTO THE QUAD STATE AT THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM MAKING A  
WARMING TREND FAVORED FOR THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  
 
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP BEING INTRODUCED IN A LATER FORECAST  
PACKAGE INVOLVES A WEAK DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEEKEND FRONT.  
THIS FEATURE ENTERS THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST AS IT DIVES  
TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME  
BACKBUILDING OF THE TROUGH AND COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,  
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS DISTURBANCE DRY. NBM CONTINUES TO  
EXCLUDE POPS FROM THIS, AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN AS SUCH FOR  
NOW. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DO HAVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS  
DISTURBANCE HAVE LIGHT AMOUNTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN  
CONTROL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS  
AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10  
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT  
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RJP  
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...ATL  
AVIATION...RJP  
 
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