264
FXUS63 KPAH 152346
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WHEN UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ARE
EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN, AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THEN IT'S BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AS BREEZY SSW WINDS TODAY ARRIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
WEST WHICH HAS FUNNELED AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT/TUESDAY. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING
SIGNS OF A STRATUS LAYER MOVING IN TONIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS NUDGING WARMER
TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING
ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY SO THAT IS LEFT OUT.
CONTINUED WARMING WILL LIFT TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MIDWEEK. BETTER MOISTURE ENTERS THE AREA AND MULTIPLE MODELS
PRODUCE SPOTTY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE
NBM FAVORS WESTERN KENTUCKY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE KEEPING OTHER AREAS DRY. THIS AREA COULD EXPAND
AS WE MOVE CLOSER BUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNIMPACTFUL.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STEER MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDER, BUT
DEW POINTS "ONLY" IN THE LOWER 50S (WHILE CERTAINLY AN
IMPRESSIVE INCREASE COMPARED TO CURRENT SINGLE DIGIT VALUES) AND
CAPE VALUES AROUND 100J/KG WOULD KEEP STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
FROM MATERIALIZING IF THAT HOLDS, DESPITE PLENTY GOOD SHEAR AND
LIFT. GRADIENT WINDS THURSDAY OF 25-35MPH ARE LIKELY. A BRIEF
SWITCHOVER TO LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
IS POSSIBLE BUT WON'T LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUT BOUNCE BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKLY RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER
WHICH, A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND/OR A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS COVER FOR ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THIS,
MAINLY FOCUSED (FOR THE QUAD STATE) OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY, BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY COALESCE INTO ONE OR TWO MORE FOCUSED TIME
PERIODS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS TO WORK EASTWARD THROUGH/ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY COMMITTED
TO THE CEILINGS, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING, AND THAT DEFINITELY LENDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE CEILING FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AT KCGI AND WOULD THEN OVERSPREAD THE OTHER
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ONCE THEY ARRIVE, THEY ARE NOT LIKELY
TO DISSIPATE. KMVN MAY BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK, SO DID NOT HIT IT AS HARD THERE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS
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