223
FXUS63 KPAH 150358
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1058 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER PATTERN, HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 90S
OVER THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED WELL TO THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK
WITH A DISTURBANCE DRIFTING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME ONLY PULSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PWS CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
2IN WOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN RATES. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT COMING BACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BEING KCGI/KPAH. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
KMVN BUT KEPT PROB30 MENTION IN FOR NOW. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP
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