961
FXUS63 KPAH 161054
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS, RECORD-BREAKING LATE SEASON HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
- ISOLATED HEAT-OF-THE-DAY POP-UP STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY AND THURSDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
- COOLER, LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALONG THE THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
OUR LATE-SEASON HEAT WAVE IS UNDERWAY AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO EXTEND THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH 7 PM CDT SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND SLOWER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE VERY STOUT H5 RIDGE OVER THE
REGION, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
CONTINUE AN EXTRA DAY.
WE AGAIN WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT WHILE THE AIR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ARE NOT UNHEARD OF FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SEPTEMBER,
THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE VERY ANOMALOUS. OUR
CONCERN FOR HEAT- RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS IS HIGH DUE TO THE
NUMEROUS OUTDOOR FALL SEASON EVENTS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HEAT WAVE. WE URGE ANYONE PLANNING TO PARTICIPATE IN
PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES
WHENEVER POSSIBLE OR CONSIDER DELAYING THEM UNTIL THE COOLER
PORTIONS OF THE DAY IN THE EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 596-600
DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND 19-22C EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BOTH VALUES ARE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL YIELD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DURING THIS TIME. BOTH
THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR BREAK
RECORD HOT/WARM VALUES THIS WEEK. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TODAY AND THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH THE HEAT, PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REACH 103-109. ON FRIDAY, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL DRAW DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, YIELDING SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES. ON SATURDAY, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL DRAW DOWN FURTHER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER,
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL STILL CLIMB OVER 100, WHICH IS WHY THE HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
WE DO HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-64. THIS IS DUE TO POTENTIAL FORCING FROM REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION PASSING TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT.
THE H5 RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME
NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. SCT DIURNAL CU WILL CLOUD BASES AROUND 8KFT
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM INVOF MVN, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT S WIND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AROUND 5-10
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, RELAXING TO 3-5 KTS FROM THE S
TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, SEP 16:
CGI: 99 (2019)
MDH: 101 (1927)
EVV: 97 (1897)
PAH: 97 (2019)
POF: 101 (1927)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, SEP 17:
CGI: 96 (2019)
MDH: 102 (1927)
EVV: 96 (1927)
PAH: 98 (1939)
POF: 101 (1927)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, SEP 18:
CGI: 96 (2025)
MDH: 98 (1925)
EVV: 99 (1908)
PAH: 97 (1953)
POF: 97 (1931)
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
CLIMATE...DWS
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