567
FXUS63 KPAH 191040
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A 60-90% CHANCE
OF RAIN PEAKING THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST
A 30-50% CHANCE OR GREATER OF RAIN EACH DAY. THURSDAY WILL BE
THE DRIEST DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
SOUTH.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL AFTER TODAY INTO THE 70S ALONG
WITH A DECREASE IN HUMIDITY BEFORE QUICKLY REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN MCS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACROSS MISSOURI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO RISE NEAR 70.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WEST DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. AN
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER MIXING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. AS A PREFRONTAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES
MIDDAY, THE CAMS DIFFER ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE 0Z ARW AND HRRR
KEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MORE SCATTERED WITH STORMS GROWING
MORE UPSCALE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NSSL, FV3, AND NEWER HOURLY RUNS
OF THE HRRR SHOW MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LINE PROPAGATING EAST. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINLY IN
THE TIMING OF STORM COVERAGE, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PEAKING AT A 60-90% CHANCE.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/5) OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE, THE SHEAR WILL BE MORE MEAGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 20-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT
BEST. HOWEVER, GIVEN A ROBUST MLCAPE AXIS OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM, THE THERMODYNAMICS
WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME ORGANIZED
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS LIFT MORE NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. WITH THAT SAID,
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL LOW-LYING
LOCATIONS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY, DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY WHEN THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A ~1030
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ADVECTS IN DRIER
AIR. THE MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY, CAUSING HUMIDITY LEVELS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE 80S FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO YIELD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A 80-90% CHANCE OF RAIN PEAKING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE NBM. DAILY STORM CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 16-23Z AS CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST TRENDS ARE A BIT FASTER, WITH
STORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE,
SHOWERS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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