532
FXUS63 KPAH 180009
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TOMORROW.
- NUMEROUS (80%+) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (20%) THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
- WINDS WILL ALSO BE RATHER GUSTY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE. 20-30% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
ALSO RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DESCENDING FROM THE MT/CANADA BORDER
WITH A DEEP 982 MB SFC LOW THAT TRANSITS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS UPPER TROF DIGS THROUGH THE PLAINS A TIGHT GRADIENT IS
FORMED AT THE SFC AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH.
NUMEROUS (80%+) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED (20%) THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED (~100 J/KG), LAPSE RATES ARE POOR (5-6 DEGC/KM), AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S SO ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY VERY
LIMITED. SPC REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR TOMORROW. GRADIENT WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED BUT WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY BACK TO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOW (20-25%) POPS AND BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 40S ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE EAST MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE MONDAY AND INCREASE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A FEW SYSTEMS ROUND
OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT AND BRING BACK WEAK POPS (20-30%) TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS ISSUANCE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF ISSUANCE.
MAY END UP NEEDING TO START MVFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED AT EACH SITE. ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PULLED BACK A BIT ON THE THUNDER CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. ALSO ADJUSTED TIMING FOR WIND
SHIFT AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...KC
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