783  
FXUS63 KPAH 271059  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
459 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND A SMALL PART OF  
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  
 
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE  
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, TRAVEL  
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TREND IS STILL FOR WARMER  
TEMPERATURES/LESS WINTRY PRECIP.  
 
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH  
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH A 60-80% OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER. AHEAD  
OF A POTENTIALLY STORMIER PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026  
 
DESPITE WHAT THE MOISTURE PROFILES APPEARED TO SHOW EARLIER THIS  
MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED UP OVER PARTS OF SEMO  
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW THAT THE AREAS OF  
DENSE FOG ARE NOT WIDESPREAD BUT THERE ARE SHARP/SUDDEN DROPS  
IN VISIBILITY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THAT OPTED TO  
ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026  
 
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA, THE MOISTURE PROFILES  
CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  
 
A DIGGING, BROAD, SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE  
AREA. A WEST NORTHWESTERLY JET MAX AT 130-140 KTS IS SPINNING UP  
A LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT RESULT TODAY  
SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PEAKING OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW  
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35% RANGE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER  
ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND  
SATURDAY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL  
PROJECTED TO GET SHOVED THROUGH THE AREA. MODEST JET-LEVEL LARGE  
SCALE ASCENT AND WAA GIVES US SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH  
EARLY MONDAY. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR AMOUNTS TO BE MORE MODEST  
AND AIR WARMER, LIMITING THE APPARENT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER  
WEATHER.  
 
A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT THEN SETS UP WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
LITTLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW LOOK TO AID IN SPARKING SHOWERS ON  
AND OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHARP SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH IS PROGGED IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH ROBUST  
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE WITH  
THE JET AND AVAILABLE LIFT, PRESENTED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S, WITH MORE MOISTURE TO PULL FROM FROM  
THE WESTERN GULF, AND A BROAD 35-45 KT 850MB JET GIVES ME SOME  
CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EMERGING. BOTH ECMWF/GFS  
MEMBERS ALSO THEN SWING A STRONGER TROUGH IN FROM THE WEST JUST  
BEHIND THE LEADING SHORTWAVE THAT LOADS THE REGION BACK UP AS  
WELL. THIS LOOKS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF TROUGHS PASSING JUST NORTHWEST AND RELOADING 1.4 TO  
1.5 INCH PWATS LOOKS LIKE SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD AS WELL. WE ARE ABOUT TO  
CONCLUDE THE DRIEST METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ON RECORD FOR THE  
REGION, SO IT WOULD FOLLOW THE GENERAL APPARENT TENDENCY OF THE  
REGION TO SHIFT FROM ONE EXTREME TO THE OTHER. STILL EARLY  
THOUGH SO WILL WATCH IN COMING DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SEMO AND WESTERN  
KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY ABOUT 14Z WITH SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS BUILDING IN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AMID VFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ090>094.  
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ109>112-  
114.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>013-  
016-017.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JGG  
DISCUSSION...JGG  
AVIATION...JGG  
 
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