685
FXUS63 KPAH 210521
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAMP BACK UP ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE BRIEF
DRY INTERVALS TODAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE AT LEAST A 50-60%
CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES. FLOODING ISSUES WILL REMAIN MINOR AT MOST
DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TREND BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A 1032 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. THE CAMS TRY TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE, WITH A
30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON PROGGED BY THE NBM. THE
RELIEF WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A 15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN ON AVERAGE.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REALLY RAMPS UP AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED BY
THE NBM EACH DAY. THE SIGNAL REMAINS WEAK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE KINEMATICS ARE VERY MEAGER. ANY FLOODING ISSUES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MINOR AT MOST AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OCCURRING
OVER A LONG DURATION. THE LREF SUPPORTS A 60-90% CHANCE OF
UPWARDS 3 INCHES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MID 80S
BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OR BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS) AT
EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC
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