917
FXUS63 KPAH 241700
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COMFORTABLY MILD AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
- WHEN IS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN? MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE APPEARS
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
"THE FORCE IS STRONG WITH THAT ONE, YODA"...THAT IS THE MAIN
DRIVER OF OUR CURRENT WX PATTERN...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
HOLDS STRONG THRU MID WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT CARBON COPY
CONDITIONS EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS 75-80F AND LOWS 45-50F
GENERALLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THRU WEDNESDAY. ANY PATCHY
DAYBREAK FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED.
WHAT HAPPENS MID-WEEK WITH THE PATTERN IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE,
BUT A TEMPORARY, SUBTLE WEAKENING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW
KINKS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE ONLY TANGIBLE IMPACT HERE
IS SEEN ON TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AS A MANIFESTED INCREASE
IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, I.E. A LITTLE SPILL-OVER HIGH CLOUD
FROM THE BROADER SCALE PLAINS TROFFING AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS,
AND MORE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPILLS IT IN/ACROSS OUR AREA VISA VI
THE PERTURBATION; WE'RE STILL FAR REMOVED FROM TANGIBLE
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS. TEMPS HOLD ABOUT THE SAME IN THE UPPER HALF
70S BUT THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD LOWS CLOSER TO
AROUND 50F VERSUS THE TAD COOLER MID 40S THAT EXIST IN SOME
LOCALES EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES FOR US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AS IT IS
TELECONNECTIVELY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THE CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THAT RIDGE,
WE'LL EITHER CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER OR PERHAPS, IT IS
DISPLACED JUST ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE WEST START TO IMPACT MORE OF THE MS VALLEY. IF THAT
OCCURS, WE JUST MIGHT SEE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR BY
HALLOWEEN, BUT AT THIS WRITING, IT LOOKS TO BE MINIMALLY
IMPACTFUL EVEN IF IT OCCURS, AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
TROFFING IS STILL FAR DISPLACED WESTWARD OVER THE MT-WY
ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL FEW-SCT250
BASES POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM, AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THIS MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE MID WEEK. UNTIL
THEN, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH A DRY COLUMN BELOW H5 AND
LIGHT FLOW WEEKEND CONDITIONS. ANY DAYBREAK FOG THAT OCCURS IN
PATCHES IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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