378
FXUS63 KPAH 302259
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
- SMALL CHANCES (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DAILY SCATTERED
CHANCES (30-50%) FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES BUT CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
OUR DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
A 596 DM H5 RIDGE. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
23-25C (AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE), HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, DESPITE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL YIELD DAILY
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 115 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL ALLOW MENTIONABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN. SCHC POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT LOOK TO INCREASE TO CHC LEVELS
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR "RIDGE RIDER" MCS ACTIVITY
IMPACTING THE REGION AS THE H5 RIDGE DIMINISHES. PREDICTABILITY
ON THESE KIND OF EVENTS IS USUALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS
RANGE, SO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW TO ABOUT 5 TO 8 KTS WITH VFR SKIES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...JGG
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