776
FXUS63 KPAH 050624
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATTERN FAVORS NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED TODAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (40-60%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (MID TO UPPER 80S). A BRIEF WARM-UP ON
THURSDAY MAY ALLOW HEAT INDEX READING TO EXCEED 100 BEFORE A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY USHERS IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES MAY BE HIGHEST TODAY AND THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE TROUGH OVERHEAD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP GREATER MIDWEEK CHANCES IN PLACE). IF THE
TROUGH DOES PUSH FURTHER EAST THOUGH, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY END UP WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST.
WE MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY, ALTHOUGH
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD ONLY REACH UP AROUND 2000 J/KG (COMPARED TO THE
3000-3500 J/KG YESTERDAY). DCAPE VALUES MAY STILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG THOUGH SO COULD STILL GET SOME DOWNBURSTS WITH A FEW
STORMS. CAMS SUGGEST FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE, BUT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GUT SAYS COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY BUT STILL MORE THAN WHAT MOST CAMS
SUGGEST.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE QUAD
STATE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS BY NEXT SUNDAY. THURSDAY
MIGHT END UP BEING THE ONLY DAY IN THE NEXT 7 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 100. A NICE CHANGE AFTER THE PROLONGED HEAT OF THE PAST
WEEK!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT EVV AND MVN THIS EVENING WITH
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN VISBY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
MVN/EVV/PAH. SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE. FOR NOW INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KNOTS. AFTERNOON BASES AROUND 3-4KFT ARE
EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
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