775
FXUS63 KPAH 051846
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-70%) TODAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WHICH
IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
AN MCV WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MCV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
CLIMBED OVER 2000J/KG OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY,
AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MCV
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000J/KG
OVER WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA, WHICH WOULD DEFINITELY
SUPPORT SOME HEALTHY DOWNDRAFTS, BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE WE HAVE
SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THEY WILL BE MOST LIKELY
OVER WEST KENTUCKY WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DCAPE IS
LOCATED. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE QUAD STATE WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SERIES OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE HEALTHY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND SEND HEAT INDICES BACK INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. IT WILL ALSO FEED MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
SOME ACTUAL FLOW ALOFT.
NEXT WEEKEND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD STATE WHICH WILL LEAD TO SMALLER DAILY
CHANCES OF CONVECTION, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS, AS WELL.
LOOKING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF PURE
DRY DAYS THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW WE WILL GET THERE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION, WHICH WOULD
MEAN A RETURN TO HOTTER CONDITIONS, AND THE LATEST GFS HAS
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALL THE WAY OUT OF CANADA, WHICH
WOULD MEAN MORE PLEASANT, DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
AN MCV WILL FORCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS IT MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE AS WINDY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. ASSUMING MOST OF THE AREA
GETS WET THIS AFTERNOON, FOG IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION TONIGHT
AND IT COULD BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
IN THE MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRY TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE
REGION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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