622
FXUS63 KPAH 221124
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VARIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
- COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-2" WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3" IN FAR WESTERN
SEMO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE SFC LOW IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THIS MORNING. GRADUALLY A COLD FRONT GETS PULLED THROUGH
THE AREA WITH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY. CONVECTION LINGERS
THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
A WARMING TREND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS BACK 90S BY SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. PWATS PICK UP BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO AROUND 1.5-1.75", THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO AROUND 1.75-2.00". OVERALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TOTAL RAINFALL COULD BE AROUND 1-2" WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3"
OVER FAR WESTERN SEMO. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD MAYBE
SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE AROUND 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, 20-30 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
DEGC/KM. THERE IS STILL A LOT THAT CAN AND WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN THOUGH. SO JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S STORMS, MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS
HAVE TAKEN HOLD AT THE TERMINALS. THIS LOWER STRATUS DECK LOOKS
TO STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON
TO VFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS EVENING AND SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. WINDS THEN GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>083.
MO...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page