119
FXUS63 KPAH 192250
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY-MONDAY; LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS STEADY IN THE LOWER HALF 80S WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST, WE'LL SEE DEW POINTS REBOUND INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S, AND PUSH 70F IN OUR SOUTH, TMRW NIGHT. THAT
SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE SOME SORT OF
MCS/COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES
ITS CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. BY THEN, WE'LL
HAVE DEW POINTS SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS WILL STILL BE
GOOD FOR 4 DIGIT MUCAPE, AND WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE(S), WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PW'S IN A
TRAINING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SEE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINS
THAT LOCALLY MIGHT CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD THEY REPEAT
OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE PARENT LOW
SHOOTS EAST BY MONDAY, SO STORMS WILL BE TAPERING OFF NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE CONVECTION TIED WITH THE FRONT DIMINISHES UPON ITS
PASSAGE. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THEREAFTER AND
CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS STEADY IN THE LOWER
HALF 80S WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR CALM
WINDS TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO WEST WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 4-5 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU AROUND
4-6 KFT AGL DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
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