795
FXUS63 KPAH 090242
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
942 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES ON FRIDAY, THREATENING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER
RISK.
- THE REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS APPEAR TO BE THE
GREATEST IMPACT, BUT GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
PEAK TIMING FOR RAIN IS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
FOR TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW OUR WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY DICTATED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. TOMROROW'S CONDITIONS LOOK
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY STARTS TO REACT TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 20 TO
30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH EAST WINDS AT ABOUT 5 TO 8 MPH.
THESE ARE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FROM A PURELY
METEOROLOGICAL STANDPOINT ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE NOT QUITE YET FULLY
RECEPTIVE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS ON-TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE STORM IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AL/FL
COASTLINE FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE
TEXAS BIG BEND INTERACTS WITH THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE
HELPING IT ACCELERATE AND MAX A QUICK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
FAVORABLE JET-LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
RAINFALL STARTING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE PULLING NORTHWESTWARD INTO WEST
TENNESSEE BY MIDDAY. THE PEAK OF ANY STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH CURRENTLY FORECAST. STORM TOTAL RAIN OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY DECREASING TO 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
HODOGRAPHS/SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BUT FOR NOW
INSTABILITY APPEARS VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE MORE BENIGN PASSAGE THAT ONLY RESULTS IN IMPACTS TO PLANNED
OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH A STEADY MOST OF THE DAY RAIN IS ABOUT THE
80-85% CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. THE CONTINGENCY WOULD BE IF THE
STORM WERE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WELL-BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH CAN HAPPEN WITH THESE SEMI-
SHEARED STORMS THAT END UP UTILIZING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CHANNEL RATHER THAN BE SHEARED APART BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT NORTH OF THE STORM. THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS TIME
PROGRESSES BUT WE WILL REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY. IF THE
STORM WERE TO END UP BEING STRONGER AT LANDFALL THEN THE RISK OF
FLOODING RAINS, STRONGER WINDS, AND AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL REMNANTS
WITH DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY A TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND MAY LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES BUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT ESTABLISHES OVER GEORGIA LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD EVERYTHING BACK THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, STEADY E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 5-10
KTS. MVFR SHALLOW RIVER FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN AT CGI, MAINLY
BETWEEN 09-13Z. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
APPROACH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS
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