726
FXUS63 KPAH 021145
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW DAYTIME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UPPER LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS LOW AND TROUGH ARE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AND WILL BE FOLDED INTO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TEXAS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
THE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
KEEPING SEVERE WEATHER AT BAY, WITH EVEN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
SPARSE DURING THE DAY. QPF IS AROUND 0.75-1.5IN WHICH, SPREAD
OUT OVER A DOZEN HOURS, SHOULDN'T PRODUCE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
THE MOISTURE PLUME IS DIRECTED THROUGH TENNESSEE SATURDAY AND
MIGHT RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE SUNDAY,
BUT POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS IN MUCH COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MAINTAINS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR EARLY WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST DROPS LOWS TO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME WARMING IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE STRONGLY ALIGNED ON DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
TODAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHERLY. VSBY DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH RAIN, AND IFR
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW
HOURS, THEN SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING LATER ON (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH). IF WINDS WERE TO
CALM TONIGHT THERE COULD BE FOG FORMATION BUT MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER TO MAKE THAT UNLIKELY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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