977
FXUS63 KPAH 040641
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES PEAKING ABOVE 100 FOR THE
7TH CONSECUTIVE DAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK (40-60%), PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL (20-40%) AT DAILY SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW 100
MOST DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR FIRST PROLONGED HEATWAVE
OF THE SEASON THIS PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE PROCESS, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE QUAD STATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HELPING TO BOOST CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE COMBINATION OF
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER/STORM COVERAGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING BACK TO
MORE SEASONABLE READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WHERE OUTSIDE CONVECTION WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
SUNDAY WE MAY STILL FLIRT WITH 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOME AREAS,
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL DAY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE DOWN BY 01-02Z. THERE ARE A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
THAT KEEP ACTIVITY GOING A BIT LATER TODAY THOUGH, WHICH GIVEN THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND TROUGHINESS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MAY KEEP STORMS GOING FOR LONGER THIS EVENING THEN PREVIOUS DAYS.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, BUT SOME STORMS SHOULD LIKELY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LEVELS FOR BRIEF PERIODS TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING
WIND OR HAIL REPORTS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER WAVES PASS THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
REGION. THEREAFTER, DAILY CHANCES CONTINUE BUT MAY BECOME MORE
ISOLATED HEADING INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KEPT THE TEMPO MENTION
FOR MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 9-12Z.
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE DOES LOOK A BIT GREATER ON SATURDAY
WITH VCTS MENTION AT THE TERMINALS WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR
CIG/VISBY RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 4-5 KNOTS SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page