334
FXUS63 KPAH 252103
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
403 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. DAMAGING
WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE, THIS WILL BE A MUCH DRIER HEAT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND A 597 DM RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INITIALLY, AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT TONIGHT MAY TRIGGER
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SEMO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE HRRR FOCUSES ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
THE MORNING, THE NSSL/FV3 SHOW MORE ROBUST SFC BASED STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER. DCAPE OF 900 TO 1200 J/KG COMBINED WITH
7.0-8.0 C/KM LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE WITH 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE RISK IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL, AS IT IS CONTINGENT ON THE MORNING CONVECTION THAT
WOULD RESULT IN CLOUD DEBRIS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
AS THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A
SCATTERED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIES TO DEVELOP.
RAIN PUSHES EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FA. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LIKELY WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT TO THE NORTH. AT ANY GIVEN POINT, RAIN CHANCES PEAK
AT A 30-50% CHANCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE CAMS, MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING. WHERE STORMS OCCUR, UP TO A
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN SEEING SOME RAIN.
WHILE BRIEF RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, A 594 DM
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL ALLOW FOR 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE
20C. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S; HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES DUE TO LESS EVAPORATIONAL TRANSPORT FROM AGRICULTURE.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY AROUND 100 DEGREES.
GIVEN THAT MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE RIDGE PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
REACH THE UPPER 90S AT SOME POINT. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS HEATWAVE,
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS FAVOR THIS BEING A MUCH DRIER HEAT THAT
WILL MAKE HEAT HEADLINES UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TMRW AM.
THIS MAY SPILL A FEW DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST
FLIGHT AREA, NAMELY FOR THE TERMINALS KCGI/KPAH NEARER THE
BOUNDARY, AND MIGHT YIELD A CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BUT WE
THINK THE FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN IN ARKANSAS IS ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE FROM THE 00Z MENTION; WILL REEVALUATE AT 06Z. IT'LL
BE AN OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLIES DEVELOPING
TMRW AND ADDITIONAL/PERHAPS BETTER PCPN PROBABILITIES COMING IN
JUST BEYOND THE PURVIEW OF THIS PACKAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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