776
FXUS63 KPAH 111141
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
641 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-2" IS POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SET
TO ROLL THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW WHERE IT PINCHES OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
A LULL IN ACTIVITY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT,
THE WEAK/DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH LOOKS TO DRIFT SOUTH
INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON
AND/OR AIDED BY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION. THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE. ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT IS SUPPORTED BY
1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KTS OF 0- 6 KM
BULK SHEAR, AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR YET AGAIN BUT WEAKER THIS TIME AND LESS
CERTAIN. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BEING NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY THE THREAT FOR SEVERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS. BY THE END OF
SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL TO AROUND
0.75-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH PRESSURE DOME BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS LEADING TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS START PUSHING 90
AGAIN BY MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME OFF HAND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY WEEK, BUT
OVERALL THINGS SHOULD BE DRIER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LAST NIGHT'S STORMS ARE STILL CLEARING PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT
AFTER THERE SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE
CLOUD DECK. TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. STORMS
THAT DO HIT THE TERMINAL ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
BEHIND THE STORMS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMVN) LOWERING OF CIGS
IS EXPECTED DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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