376
FXUS63 KPAH 260828
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64 THROUGH 3 PM.
- CHILLY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING, BUT SOME MINOR WINTRY
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT 35KT GUSTS TO
SUPPORT THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE FAR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING,
BUT THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z ECENS, WHICH HAS A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF AT LEAST 35KT GUSTS SKIRTING RIGHT DOWN NEAR I-64.
THE ECENS MIGHT EVEN SUPPORT EXTENDING IT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW.
THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS
MORNING, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE QUAD STATE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN SETTLE OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH FRIDAY BEING
THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE PERSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION.
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST FRIDAY EVENING
AND SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WE STILL
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF, MINOR WINTRY IMPACTS
EARLY SATURDAY AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, BUT IN GENERAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE TIME TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE IT
ARRIVES.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING, AND COME
TO AN END FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NO WINTRY IMPACT
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
THE CANADIAN/ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL SURGE ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF COAST BY MONDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S OVER MUCH
OF THE QUAD STATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY, WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
WHERE THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RESIDE. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS, THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SOME TANGIBLE SNOWFALL. THE 00Z MODELS KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, SO IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
THIS NBM-BASED FORECAST, AS ALWAYS, LAGS THE TREND, AND HAS
POPS EVERY PERIOD FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOW EXPECTED, THIS RESULTS IN SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WHEN WE SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A COLD FRONT MAKES APPROACH/PASSAGE TONIGHT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
AND LOW RESTRICTED BASES/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF IT, AND
A STRONG/GUSTY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AFTER
PASSAGE AS BASES SCATTER TO VFR FOR APPROXIMATELY THE BACK HALF
OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ076>078.
MO...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ081-082.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page