107
FXUS63 KPAH 191111
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE REGION
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
QUAD STATE DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL (FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE) TODAY
AND SATURDAY.
WARM ADVECTION WILL GET GOING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.
THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY,
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT NORTH
OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CAPPING SOUTH
OF THE MCS, INSTABILITY COULD BE MODERATE OR BETTER BY PEAK
HEATING AND WE COULD HAVE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT, AND A
FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OF COURSE, WITH ZONAL FLOW
IT IS POSSIBLE THE MCS IS FARTHER SOUTH RESULTING IN MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER ALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND THAT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE CONVECTION.
A WEAK ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO
NEXT FRIDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING MUCH MORE HUMID AIR RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
NORMAL LEVELS OR BELOW, HEAT INDICES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S. OTHERWISE, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. THE EXCEPTION FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD HOLD LOWS UP IN THE LOWER
70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY AT KMVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page