458
FXUS63 KPAH 100647
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY DUE TO A SIMILAR SET UP TO
TODAY.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TILL MORNING, ALONG WITH
THAT IS THE ONGOING FLOOD THREAT AS THESE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT, HIGH
PWAT STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. MORE PERTURBATIONS THROUGH
THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW. A BRIEF
MORNING LULL EACH DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
BE CLIPPED BY A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AND THE REST OF THE AREA TO BE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
TOMORROW, WHILE SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT
CONVECTION, THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP MAINLY OVER THE
PLAINS, THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY DRIER WEEK THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME OFF
HAND 20-30% PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS THE WEEK GOES ON HIGHS WILL GO
FROM BEING SEASONABLE TO PUSHING 90 AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS, WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBY
DROPS ACCOMPANY HEAVY RAIN, AND CIGS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT AT
MVFR. WINDS AROUND 5KTS OR LESS (OUTSIDE OF STORMS) OVERNIGHT,
INCREASE TO 7-9KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL
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