088  
FXUS63 KPAH 172302 AAA  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
602 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES,  
AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.  
 
- THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE SEASON  
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105F ARE FORECAST,  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAT OF DAY SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE  
INTO THE EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING  
OFFERING THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM STORM ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.  
 
HIGHER RISK SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR TMRW, MOST SPECIFICALLY  
FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO/THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THERE  
IS SOME QUESTION WITH ONSET TIMING AS A DECAYING MCS OR SIMILAR  
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD COULD BE OVERTOPPING THE AREA  
TMRW MORNING, SO WILL OFFER A PLAY INTO HOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPS  
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALL THE CAMS SUGGEST THE REAL  
FRONTAL DRIVEN CONVECTION HOLDS OFF TIL 21-24Z KNOCKING ON OUR  
CWA DOORSTEP.  
 
WHEN THE FRONT APPEARS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, IT  
WILL BE TAPPING A DESTABILIZED AIR MASS OFFERING ANYWHERE FROM  
ABOUT 2K UPWARDS TO ABOUT 3.5K J/KG MUCAPE, WITH LAPSE RATES  
STEEPENING INTO THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE. SHEAR INCREASES TO 40+ KTS  
SO ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE WITH THE INTRO OF THE FRONT AND  
THE PARENT UPPER TROF SHARPENING ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR A  
CONVECTIVE EVENT TO BREAK OUT WITH ALL HAZARDS POTENTIAL. STILL  
HIGH PW'S KEEP HEAVY RAIN AS A HAZARD, STORMS WILL BE MOVING BUT  
REPEAT STORMS MAY STILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESP  
GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL.  
 
WHILE SOME POP MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM  
CLEARS AND WE GO DRIER BUT ALSO WARMER UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE  
OF A BUILDING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. COMBINED WITH THE  
HUMIDITY, WE COULD GET INTO SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR HEADLINE HEAT  
POTENTIAL WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE FROM THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED  
HEALTH IMPACTS GROWS GIVEN PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
TONIGHT LOOKS VFR DESPITE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  
SOUTHEAST WINDS TRYING TO STAY ABOVE CALM MOST OF THE NIGHT.  
 
HIGH AND MID CLOUD WORK IN FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING WITH  
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DAYBREAK  
HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE  
STRONG/ORGANIZED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MOST  
OF THE DAY.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...  
AVIATION...JGG  
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