686
FXUS63 KPAH 151741
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THRU TOMORROW WITH HEAT
INDICES PEAKING IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS UP TO NEAR 115 DEGREES.
- STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING STRONG STORM CHANCES, ARE BEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOTH FRONTAL
PASSAGES BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHEN YOU LOOK AT AN UPPER LEVEL CHART YOU CAN SEE ABOUT A 600DM
RIDGE AT 500MB CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE
THERMOMETER AT THE SURFACE APPARENTLY SEES THE SAME THING AS OUR
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE
MIXING DOWN, MERCIFULLY, JUST A TINY BIT INTO THE MID 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE STILL OVER 105 OR HEADED THAT WAY AMID CLEAR
SKIES. WITH THE DEEP MIXING LCL HEIGHTS ARE UP OVER 8000 FT
WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW LOOKS JUST AS HOT WITH MAX APPARENT TS IN THE 105-110
RANGE. THE CUMULATIVE HEAT OF THIS EXTENDED STREAK WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION. OUR NEWER "HEAT RISK" TOOL
STILL SHOWS LEVEL 3 AND 4 (OUT OF 4) CATEGORIZATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA.
A ZONAL JET MAX TO THE NORTH FINALLY BUILDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
SUNDAY TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DEEP MIXING PRODUCES VERY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AGAIN TOMORROW AND
THAT HOT (RELATIVELY DRIER) AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MAY LIMIT
PARCEL BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT, BUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LOOKS TO
STILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH GIVING US
DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF THE FRONT CAN LIFT THE
PARCELS HIGH ENOUGH TO GET GOING. IF THEY DO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS/WINDS WILL BE THERE GIVEN THE HIGH 0-3KM
THETA-E DIFFERENCE AND LOW LEVEL INVERTED V/DCAPE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS OFF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS KICKS UP
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK LIKELY
TO COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE BUT THE
ECMWF ALSO HAS IT AS DO MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF THAT SIGNAL REMAINS
GIVEN THE LIFT/DEEP SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACTUALLY CREEPS UP JUST A BIT IN THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN. CSU-ML AND CIPS ANALOGS ARE ALSO
FLICKERING JUST A BIT OVER THAT PERIOD AS WELL. ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE A RESPECTABLE CHANCE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S, WHICH WOULD FEEL POSITIVELY BALTIC COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST WEEK!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS SHIFTED SFC WINDS TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SWIN.
IT LIKELY HAS LARGELY MADE ITS FURTHEST TREK SOUTHWARD AND THE
LARGER FLOW SUPPORTS A SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY
HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER THE NEW TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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