496
FXUS63 KPAH 292257
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO A 70-90% CHANCE OF A HEATWAVE IMPACTING
THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ DEGREES.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A 20%ISH
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING A RETURN
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT BEST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A POTENT 594 DM RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING OUR
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AND BRING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+
DEGREES AS EARLY AS MONDAY OUT WEST IN THE NBM. THE LREF STARTS TO
INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES OF 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE AND JUMPS UP TO A 60-80% CHANCE ON TUESDAY, AND
A 70-90% CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE A FEW SITES
MIGHT HIT A HEAT INDEX OF 105 (HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA), A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY DUE TO THERE BEING 4
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES OF 100+.
THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFTS WEST
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY STILL BE HOT THOUGH
WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 90S AND LREF PROBS OF 50-70% OF
HEAT INDICES OF 100+ ON FRIDAY, AND 40-60% ON SATURDAY. SOME
WEAK, SCATTERED 20%ISH POPS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND A COLD
FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THAT TIME FRAME, WHICH COULD
BRING A LITTLE MORE (ALBEIT STILL LIMITED) RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE E-SE OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SW AROUND 5-7 KTS SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT CGI AND
PAH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS LOW DUE TO
PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. FEW-SCT HIGH-BASE5 DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 13-15Z SUNDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS
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