287
FXUS63 KPAH 081800
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REPEAT DAILY STORMS HAS LEAD TO A FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ON AVERAGE, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 2-3X THAT ARE
POSSIBLE IF AND WHERE STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS.
- BEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCE IS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- SMALLER NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EXIST AGAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
AN UPPER LOW'S MEANDERING PRESENCE TODAY WILL OFFER ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR ALOFT, IT'LL BE PRIMARILY
WARM/MOIST/INSTABILITY DRIVEN DURING THE HEATING HOURS
ESPECIALLY, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW TO NON MOVING
STORMS THE MAIN HAZARD. LIGHTNING AND COLLAPSING STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
THE WAVE DRIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW, AS WE GO INTO A
SYNOPTIC WARM-SECTOR LIKE SHIFT IN THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL DRIVE DEW POINTS MORE BROADLY INTO THE MID 70S,
OFFERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE APPROACHING/INCOMING
PERTURBATIONS THAT BEGIN STREAMING IN LATER IN THE DAY TMRW AND
ESP TMRW NIGHT TO BEGIN TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING INTO
THE 25-35 KTS RANGE, THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ADD SEVERE (SLIGHT
RISK) POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS FROM LATE TMRW INTO TMRW NIGHT,
IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.
MORE SUCH WAVE(S) AND SIMILAR BOUNDARY LAY-OUT MAY MAKE FOR
ANOTHER SMALL (MARGINAL RISK) SVR THREAT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALL THESE SUCCESSIVE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ESP IF
THEY FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS, WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING RISK
AND IS WHY A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE STORMS/POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS COME HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
HEIGHTENS FROM MRGNL TO SLGT RISK DURING THE FLOOD WATCH TIME
FRAME.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, THE SIGNAL IS TO GO SLIGHTLY DRIER THRU
ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS MAY MUTE SOMEWHAT
WITH ALL THE CONVECTION, THEN HOVER AROUND CLIMO AS WE WORK INTO
THE DRIER (RELATIVE) PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SCATTERED STORMS MAY OFFER TEMPORARY DROPS IN CIGS/VSBYS, PRIMARILY
DURING THE HEATING HOURS TODAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AS BASES
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY OFFER
SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MORE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ENTER THE
FORECAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
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