611
FXUS63 KPAH 202351
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHWEST IN
INTO THE KY PENNYRILE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ON TO THE EAST.
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THE REST OF THE DAY PER VIS
IMAGERY. TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION. WILL MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT, AS SOME OF THE
DATA SHOWS A DECENT INVERSION DEVELOPING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THE WET GROUNDS, DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S IS REASON ENOUGH TO CONSIDER. WILL START WITH PATCHY.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE QUIET. BY THURSDAY EVENING, A NEW AREA
OF RAINS SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR KY/TN, MO/AR BORDER REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT REGION OF LOW TROP WAA AND MOISTURE PUSH
NORTH, ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAINS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA, MAINLY
WEST KY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE H7/H5 FLOW DIRECTS THE BEST MOISTURE
ON TO THE EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH, WHILE THE EC/CMC STAY FARTHER
SOUTH. WILL COMPROMISE FOR NOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL HELP DIRECT
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION NORTH AND OVER MOST ALL OF THE
AREA, AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (ELEVATED
INDICES). THIS WILL BE WHEN WE SEE AN UPTICK ON NEW FLOODING
CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT JUST INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
VIGOROUS, NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, HELPING WITH
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PROVIDING SOME TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, THE MODELS SUGGESTED THE
AMOUNT OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INSTABILITY COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
STILL, SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 60S AND MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KY, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID 50S/LOWER 60S. DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY SAT,
PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATE. HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
MID LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING 100 KTS OVER US WILL BE A SOURCE OF
ENERGY FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION,
MODEL WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THUS, WE
ARE UNDER A 15% SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR US SAT NIGHT AS THE NOW NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROCKETS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST, SLOWLY SUBSIDING ON SUN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED THAT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER GENERAL HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN EVENTUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. AFTER
SAT, TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET ESTABLISHED BY
TUE, WITH OUR REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURGING MOISTURE IN THE DEEP
SOUTH AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BY WED (DAY 7), THERE
MAY BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR
REGION, CREATING A CHANCE OF PCPN (LIMITED QPF). FORECAST TEMPS
APPEARED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WINTRY PCPN TYPES TO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY ON DAY 7. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY MAINLY THE GFS/GEFS MEAN AND
THE CMC, BUT DOWNPLAYED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAD TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH PCPN, AND WED DRY;
NOW IT'S THE OPPOSITE. THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHANGEABLE.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AS
WINDS GO LIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL EITHER
WAY--PERHAPS DUE TO FLOW STRONG ENOUGH JUST OFF THE SURFACE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...RYANP
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RYANP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page