170
FXUS63 KPAH 022010
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020
AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE BOUNDARY, BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE BOUNDARY
IS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND IT SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FIGURE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE WILL STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE PAST 00Z AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD WEST. HAVEN'T NOTICED ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CU FIELD DOESN'T SHOW MUCH SIGN OF VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS OF YET.
A SHEAR ZONE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT IT, BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES. FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WHILE WE HAVE MIXED PRETTY WELL
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THE RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG, MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY, THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY CONVECTION TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ONCE AGAIN THIS IS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES. WIND FIELDS ARE PATHETIC, SO ANY
STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. A VERY LOCALIZED STRONG GUST OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE USUAL BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING.
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT THE LONE DRY STRETCH OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS FALLS OVER THE HOLIDAY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE NBM LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. MOST
PLACES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRADDLE 90 DEGREES. IT MAY NOT REACH 90 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MAY HOLD HEATING BACK A BIT.
ELSEWHERE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA, LOWER
90S ARE LIKELY. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR
THE MS RIVER MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 FOR THE HEAT INDEX, BUT IT IS
NOT CONSISTENT OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HWO OR AN
SPS AT THIS TIME. LOWER 90S WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE REGION
SATURDAY. WITH A BIT LESS HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020
IN THE EXTENDED, THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A SLACK FLOW
ALOFT WITH BETTER-DEFINED MID LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BEING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN CANADA. NO
FOCUSING MECHANISMS WERE APPARENT AT LEAST INITIALLY IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. A RATHER HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A "WEAKNESS" IN THE RIDGE OVER US WAS SHOWN BY THE MODELS
TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND PERHAPS MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTH TO OUR GENERAL VICINITY BY TUE, AS WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWED THE
SOUTHERN FEATURE AS A STACKED LOW. WHATEVER FORM IT TAKES, THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAKNESS SHOULD ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY FOR US ON TUE AND PERHAPS WED, REFLECTED BY SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS FOR SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY BY THE NBM. BEST COVERAGE
BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN KY. MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO
DIVERGE BY THU (DAY 7), BUT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HELD ONTO A
MODEST PROBABILITY OF PCPN FOR THU, WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL
ABOUT TUE, WHEN THEY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND REMAIN THERE. NO
REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL MEAN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S, LOWS
AROUND 70, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020
MOST OF THE LOW CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED OR LIFTED, AND
THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE AN
MVFR CEILING AT KCGI OR KPAH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT
FIGURE ON IT BEING MOSTLY A SCATTERED CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE
NORTHERN SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ONE, BUT EVEN THERE IT IS
TOO LOW A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI,
BUT THAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE WEST OF KCGI. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS A
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE MAY KEEP AN OCCASIONAL
EASTERLY BREEZE AS WELL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FOG AT MVFR LEVELS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS
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