896
FXUS63 KPAH 281127
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYS AND NIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SATURDAY LATE EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
- A SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY TO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE QUAD STATE WILL SLIGHTLY BREAK TO
OUR NORTHWEST AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM KANSAS CITY TOWARDS
CHICAGO. RAINFALL TRACKS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD STATE. WITH
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, A FAMILIAR PATTERN FROM
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROJECTED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW: DRY
CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
LOCALIZED PATCHY MORNING FOG.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A CANADIAN
SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, NOR IS ANY NOTABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ARE PROJECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TEXAS. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL VARIATION IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING, BUT POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING HAVE
DECREASED SOME AS MODELS ARE DIALING IN FOCUS A LITTLE BIT
LATER. CAN'T RULE OUT RAIN INTERFERING WITH HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES
QUITE YET, WITH EVENING POPS OF 30-40% IN SEMO (THOUGH,
CONSIDERING THESE ARE 6 HR POPS, EARLY EVENING CHANCES WOULD BE
A BIT LOWER). A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. OVERALL QPF IS STILL LIMITED
WITH AMOUNTS MAXING OUT NEAR AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE,
BUT PWS NEAR 200% OF NORMAL CAN PUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PLAY. NBM
48HR QPF PROBS HOLD AT 30% CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE IN WEST
KENTUCKY AND 5-10% OF TWO INCHES. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS
SHIFTED DOWN AGAIN, WITH THUNDER REMOVED FROM THE BLEND. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM, AND AFTERWARDS, HIGHS DROP FROM
AROUND 80 TO CLOSER TO 70, THOUGH LOWS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 50S.
TWO SYSTEMS ARRIVE AT THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW
PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SPLIT FLOW MERGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS INTO
A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS, THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXTENSIVE A
SPIRAL AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS. A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE
PULLS FROM THE GULF INTO THE SYSTEM, AND AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN
WITH RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST CAN STALL OUT THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLE MEAN 48HR
RAINFALL OVER THE QUAD STATE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS 1-1.5", WHILE
THE DETERMINISTIC IS HIGHER. SOME PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE QUAD STATE WILL END
UP IN THE RAINIER ZONE. AFTER ALL, MULTIPLE PRIMARY COMPONENTS
OF THIS SYSTEM ARE DAYS FROM THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL CLEAR UP WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH CALM WINDS AT NIGHT AND 5KT SOUTHERLIES DURING THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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