387
FXUS63 KPAH 271034
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
534 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A 30-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD, A 30-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES (50-70%) WILL BE FRIDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN TO START
THE FORECAST TODAY; HOWEVER, ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA. THE CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS UP THAT
WAY WILL BE AROUND 30-60%. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SLOWER STORM MOTION. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING A
QUARTER INCH OR GREATER IS ONLY AROUND 20-30% IN THE TR-STATE, WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA IS AROUND 10% OR LESS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING NEARBY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUS ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE TO AROUND 40-70% THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 30-40% SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SEMO INTO WEST KY. IN FACT, THOSE LOCATIONS
HAVE ABOUT A 40-60% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA HAS
ABOUT A 10-30% CHANCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LARGELY REMAINING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO A MINIMUM.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THIS TAF ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT EACH TAF
SITE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE ISSUANCE WITH
PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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