199
FXUS63 KPAH 222314
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
514 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICING AND A HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE
OZARK FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL LIKELY START AS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN
TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION REALLY SETS
IN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ALONG AND WEST OF I-57 IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOME VERY MINOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIDGE
BRIEFLY TRYING TO FREEZE UP IN THAT AREA, MAINLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY PROBLEMS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS AREA IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
FARTHER EAST, A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD, COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO PASS BY JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION,
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY STAY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT FOR NOW WE DO NOT HAVE
ANY QPF IN THAT AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK, SATURDAY IS LOOKING FAIRLY
TRANQUIL AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES MOVING EAST AND ENDS UP IN
OHIO BY 12Z (SATURDAY). THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST
CHANCES FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE
TRI STATE REGION. HOWEVER, CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH, SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ONLY. LOTS OF
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE ANALYZING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THAT COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW QPF LOOKS MEAGER ENOUGH TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN ITS
PLACEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DATA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID,
AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH THOUGH.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY, AS DEEP SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION NOW IS WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR
THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PRESSING
EASTWARD AND WILL IMPACT SOMETIME IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. RIGHT
NOW THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN WE MIGHT
SEE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD
SUGGEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE POPS THAT THE NBM PROVIDED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD
WHERE POPS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BUT THAT WILL COME AS CONFIDENCE AND
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS ABOVE 10K FEET WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT,
WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS AFTER
06Z. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE
KCGI/KMVN AREAS, BUT VSBYS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR TONIGHT.
IMPACTS TO RUNWAY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ON THURSDAY, RAIN AND FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN S ILLINOIS
AND SE MISSOURI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN THE KMVN
AREA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAINY, WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE AROUND 00Z FROM KPAH TO KMVN WEST, AND THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-100-107>109.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...MY
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