755
FXUS63 KPAH 090626
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
- AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVE NORTH THROUGH ALABAMA, THEN
EAST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, 50-100%
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ENDING WEST TO EAST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO
ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS
WEST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.
- AFTER A COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES.
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH ALABAMA, INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z SUNDAY, THEN
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY. THE MODEL BLEND SPREADS
30-60% CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
50-100% CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FA,
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN WEST KENTUCKY, THEN
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FARTHER EAST TRACK OF ISAIAS REMNANTS CONTINUES TO MINIMIZE
ANY REAL CONCERNS ACROSS OUR AREA. RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. PEAK WIND GUSTS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD LOOK TO BE 25-35MPH, MAINLY ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY,
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ANY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SATURDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START WARMING
BACK UP, AND BY MONDAY READINGS WILL BE RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION, WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE MODEL
BLEND PRODUCES 20-40% CHANCES OF MAINLY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, STEADY E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 5-10
KTS. MVFR SHALLOW RIVER FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN AT CGI, MAINLY
BETWEEN 09-13Z. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
APPROACH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DWS
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