936
FXUS63 KPAH 270536
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1236 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO FURTHER
FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- SUNDAY ONWARD BRINGS A MAJOR HEAT WAVE WITH A PATTERN SHIFT.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT TODAY
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING THANKS TO
REPEATED RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE VERY LOW ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THE SWIN
AREA, AND CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI. CURRENTLY, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE POLEWARD.
THE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO TODAY IS PRIMED FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES. PW VALUES ARE
SITTING AROUND 2-2.2 IN AND SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
AROUND FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS GENERALLY KEEP
MANY LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE I-64 AREAS. EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING THANKS TO A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION ALOFT.
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SHOWS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THEY DON'T AGREE ON WHERE EXACTLY, TYPICAL OF THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS EVENT. HREF LPMM ALSO SHOW AREAS OF
RATHER HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE RISK OF TRAINING LEADING TO
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING STILL STANDS. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ENHANCED A BIT TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST BY SUNDAY WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE QUAD STATE WILL BE DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ALL OF NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE. HEAT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT SOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ONWARD GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD WILL FEATURE RESTRICTED BASES AND
VSBYS THRU ITS ENTIRETY. EXPECT THEMOST ROBUST TIMES OF PCPN TO
BE EARLY THIS EVENING, AGAIN LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW, AND THEN
AGAIN INTO THE EARLY PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. SOME
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE NOTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PLANNING
PERIOD, THOUGH SMALL CHANCES DO LINGER.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
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