859  
FXUS63 KPAH 162032  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
332 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE TO CHURN OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROF, SCT BANDS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH MANY  
PLACES WILL STAY RAINFREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. HOWEVER,  
DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR,  
THEY WILL TEND TO TRY AND ROTATE. THUS, A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SPIN-  
UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER THAN THAT, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS  
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE  
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. PLAN TO ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO  
EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT.  
 
TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT,  
WEDNESDAY WILL SERVE AS MORE OF A TRANSITION DAY, AS A MASSIVE  
HEAT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE PLAINS  
INTO THE MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO  
DWINDLE WEDNESDAY, TEMPS WILL BEGIN AN UPSWING. MOST LOCATIONS  
WILL CHALLENGE OR EVEN TOP 90 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACES  
ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL EVEN SEE HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO  
105 DEGREES, WITH READINGS UP CLOSE TO 100 ELSEWHERE.  
 
AS THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST CLOSER TO THE REGION  
THURSDAY, THE HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. IN FACT, WITH  
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 FOR SEVERAL  
AFTERNOONS IN A ROW LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, DECIDED AT THIS  
POINT TO INITIATE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. I ALSO WEIGHED IN THE FACT  
THAT THE HEAT WILL BE LASTING INTO WEEKEND ACTIVITIES. DEFINITELY  
LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT AND STEAMY STRETCH OF DAYS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN  
STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL  
HAVE A CAPPING EFFECT, PRECLUDING PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE WEEKEND FOR THE PAH FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE,  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN THE OPPRESSIVE  
CONDITIONS (MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS, HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES ARE  
PLANNED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND THE GEFS/ECENS, FINER  
DETAILS ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE  
LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT BY EARLY MON, BUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY  
PHASE WITH A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN  
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW, ALLOWING BUILDING OF THE  
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE OVER OUR  
REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ENABLE AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND A  
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY MON, WHICH THE INITIALIZATION  
BLEND SUPPORTS.  
 
AS HEIGHTS FALL, AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES, SOME ISOLATED  
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MORE SO ON MON ACROSS A LARGER SECTOR OF THE  
PAH FORECAST AREA. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE  
SWEPT OUT OF OUR REGION (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF), SO A SMALL  
PROBABILITY OF ACTIVITY WAS MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR  
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO AND WESTERN KY TUE (DAY 7). AT THIS TIME,  
IT APPEARS MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE  
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING  
SURFACE PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
ALTHOUGH CIGS FROM MVFR UP TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD  
BRING CIGS AND VSBYS BACK DOWN, POSSIBLY WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN  
SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT,  
BUT VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS  
TO FORM OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ088-089-  
092>094.  
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.  
 
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ086-087-100-  
107>112-114.  
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.  
 
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.  
 
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>006.  
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GM  
LONG TERM...DB  
AVIATION...GM  
 
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