966
FXUS63 KPAH 202310
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL HELP LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY; LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AN MCS DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKS FROM NORTHERN MO ACROSS
CENTRAL IL, NOSING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
IT WILL ENCOUNTER A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE HERE, WHERE DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S, AND BULK SHEAR INCREASES
TO 25-35 KTS. WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S,
MUCAPES INCREASE TO 2-3K JOULES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE MARKEDLY THEN, AND AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAID OUT, SOME
STORMS ALONG THAT BOUNDARY/WITH THE LOW TRACK MAY BECOME
SEVERE, WITH ALL HAZARDS MODE POTENTIAL. THE LINE OF CONVECTION
DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TMRW NIGHT, AND TAKES THE
SEVERE RISK WITH IT. IN ADDITION, NAEFS E-SAT INDICATES 10-30
YEAR RETURN INTERVALS ON MAXED OUT LOWER TROP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OF CHART TOPPING PW'S NEAR 2", SO WHILE THE FLOW IS
SUCH THEY'LL MOVE IN AND OUT AND ANY ONE STORM MAY NOT DO IT, A
PROCESSION OF REPEAT STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA MAY BRING HEAVY
ENOUGH SUCCESSIVE RAINS TO SIMILARLY BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER WAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE TAIL END OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND USHERS THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON ACROSS OUR SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION THRU THE DAY
MONDAY. AFTER THAT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION,
AND LASTS THRU THE BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS THEN MAKE AN APPEARANCE, RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SE TO S
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-16 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KPAH/KCGI
BEFORE MAINLY A VFR CU FIELD PREVAILS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z,
BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RISK LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
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