570
FXUS63 KPAH 252337
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH AS
HIGH AS 110 DEGREES. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY WHEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 110 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE SPORADIC AFTER TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON (20-30%
CHANCE), AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
RESULT OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT, EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND POSSIBLY
EVEN UPPER 90S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE AS
WELL, ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PUSH INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY. THIS
HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IT WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE QUAD STATE, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME RIDGE-RUNNER TYPE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND BRUSH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST
IN INTO THE PENNYRILE. THAT IS PART OF THE REASON THAT THE ADVISORY
HASN'T BEEN EXPANDED EAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. THAT IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE FOR MONDAY WITH EXTREME HEAT TAKING A FOOTHOLD. IF THE
STORMS DO BRUSH THROUGH THE AREA, THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY (FUEL) FOR THE STORMS TO WORK WITH, SO SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST/FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFORMENTIONED
LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PULL BACK AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONGER WAVE IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE QUAD
STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE AT WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY (20-30% CHANCE)
TIME FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN. THERE'S NO
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THAT TIME, BUT PLENTY OF
FUEL WILL BE AROUND FOR THE STORMS, SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. EXPECTING THAT
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SEMO WILL DIMINISH BY 01-02Z. AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY ALSO IMPACTED EVV AND OWB AS WELL. OVERNIGHT,
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR FOG AND SLOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS. WAS AGGRESSIVE ON RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR OR MVFR AFTER 14-15Z SUNDAY WITH LIGHT W
WINDS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-
080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ001>009.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS
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