466
FXUS63 KPAH 132316
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE BOTH
POTENTIAL CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. THERE
IS ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE AT RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 2"
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID. THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE (GREATER THAN 90%) AT DEW POINTS REMAINING
BELOW 60 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY! THIS APPEARS SHORT-
LIVED THOUGH AS HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY UNFOLD FROM MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
POTENTIALLY. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 40-60% CHANCE AT RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 3" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SEVERAL MCVS NOTED ON SATELLITE ARE EXPECTED TO TREK THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST ONE IS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY, HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER, BUT
ALSO TOUCHING OFF STRONGER STORMS OVER SEMO ALONG AS SBCAPE
GRADIENT. THE NEXT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING, THEN PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAMS ARE VERY MUCH STRUGGLING WITH
OVERALL EVOLUTION AS EACH MCV HAS AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT. IF THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER, THEN IT MAKES IT MORE CHALLENGING FOR THE
NEXT TO THRIVE/SURVIVE AS IT PASSES IN THE WAKE OF EACH MCV.
PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 25-35KTS, COUPLED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PLENTY TO GIVE A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AGAIN,
THIS DOES DEPEND ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITH EACH MCV
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S, WHICH IS
PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE STORMS TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AND MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. AGAIN,
THERE'S ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA SEEING 3" INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT, CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES TO START THE WEEK. THAT DOESN'T LAST LONG AS MORE
HUMID/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. ANOTHER WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
BE AROUND 30-40KTS WITH INSTABILITY VALUES PUSHING AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG. THAT COMBINATION WILL GIVE THE THREAT OF SEEING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE), SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THOSE DAYS. THE SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THE KY/TN AND MO/AR BORDERS, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH, WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN
COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND 10-14Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AS WELL. CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL BECOME MVFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE
PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE S-SW AROUND 4-8 KTS TONIGHT, BECOMING W TO NW
AND INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS
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