643
FXUS63 KPAH 210739
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
239 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO GOOD MIXING
LEADING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZIER WINDS, AND IN TURN
LOWER RH VALUES.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING WILL LEAD TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EPS GUSTS ARE MAINLY
GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. ALSO LOWERED
DEWPOINTS TO NBM 10TH PERCENTILE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED MIXING. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR LOWER RH VALUES (25-35%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
NBM CHANCES FOR 80+ DEGREES INCREASE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. NBM HAS
GENERALLY A 40-60% CHANCE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO REACH
80 TOMORROW. NBM HAS A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST
80 ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE BOARD.
THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST ON FRIDAY AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE AROUND
A CANADIAN BORDER LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS A COLD FRONT AND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY MORNING (60-80% CHANCE). SHOWERS LAST AT LEAST TILL
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES OVER WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY (DEPENDING ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT). NBM CURRENTLY HAS A 20-30% CHANCE ROUGHLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (JUST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY). NBM ALSO HAS GENERALLY A 30-60%
CHANCE OF CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1,000 J/KG IN SEMO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY 30-50% IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL.
SO A FEW ROGUE STRONG TO SEVER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY.
MONDAY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER SFC LOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MIDDAY INCREASE TO 12-18 KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9
PM CDT /10 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DW
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