244
FXUS63 KPAH 131105
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
605 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY, STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN THROUGH ABOUT 1PM. GUSTS
MAY BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (50-70% CHANCE) IN THOSE
LOCATIONS AT 30- 40 MPH.
- A GOOD CHANCE (70%-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- VERY STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
LIKELY TO EXCEED 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ROUGHLY A
30-50% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, MAINLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED AREAS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S OR COLDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE MAIN IMPACTFUL WEATHER TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERY POWERFUL/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO/IL,
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEWPOINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 30-40%. THAT IS UP FROM ONLY ABOUT 10% YESTERDAY.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TO AROUND 500-600 J/KG OR SO. THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE MUCH,
BUT LOW INSTABILITY WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS AT 60KTS FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ORTHOGONAL TO THE LINE OF STORMS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF THEY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED (PROBABILITIES INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS AT 60 DEGREES
OR BETTER). OF EVEN MORE CONCERN IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS WELL, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF QLCS-
TYPE TORNADOES! THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH AN
INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AS THE VERY DEEP TROUGH DIGS IN TO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TOP 3 CIPS ANALOGS HAS SEVERAL WIND
REPORTS AND/OR TORNADOES FROM SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. TO SHOW HOW
DYNAMICAL THE SYSTEM IS, 850-700MB WINDS ARE IN THE 99.5TH
PERCENTILE (NEAR MAX) FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE WIND DYNAMICS
TO SAY THE LEAST!!
ALONG THOSE SAME LINES, SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. GRADIENT
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO
EXCEED 40MPH!! THIS MAY HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD GREATER
THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING RIGHT NOW TOO. HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA MAY BE MET ON SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP
GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, LIKELY GUSTING
TO AROUND 40 MPH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MONDAY.
LINGERING FORCING AND MOISTURE, ALONG WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS
DIGGING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT TO MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE. SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS WELL. MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE QUAD STATE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES DROP
RAPIDLY. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH OF SNOW OR
MAYBE A BIT MORE. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE WARM
WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY.
THE COLDER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL THEN REACH INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LLWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL TURN MORE TOWARD
GUSTY WINDS AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH DEEPER MIXING.
GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHEASTERN TAF
SITES (EVV/OWB). WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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