791
FXUS63 KPAH 232324
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A MEAGER CHANCE FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
- MONDAY'S SET UP REMAINS CONCERNING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SUNNY, WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER
80S. STARTING TO SEE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU FORM UP IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT. A SHORTWAVE WORKING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL TRY TO START WORKING THIS
WAY OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LAYER WARM
ADVECTION AND SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS.
THE TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY PRE-DAWN TO MID-MORNING COUPLED
WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAKE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKE IT WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. HIGH-RES CAMS PAINT A DYING MCS
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ABOUT 4 TO 5 AM THAT WASHES OUT AMID
AT LEAST SOME STRATIFORM RAIN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE MOST
OF THE MORNING AND MAKING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MORE LIMITED.
IN SHORT, RAIN AND SHOWERY MESS AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY
A LITTLE BIT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLEARING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT 1100 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE BUT THE CAMS DON'T REALLY LIKE THE IDEA OF ANYTHING
MUCH GOING AND GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT I THINK THEY PROBABLY HAVE A POINT.
MOST OF THE ATTENTION OF THE DAY HAS BEEN ON MONDAY. DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA CONTINUES TO WORK WITH A ZONAL
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA AT ABOUT 110 KTS TO SQUEEZE OFF A
SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER KANSAS AND IOWA. A SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI AT ABOUT
990-993MB DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU ARE LOOKING AT. LOW-LAYER
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE WITH 850MB FLOW AVERAGING ABOUT 45
TO 55 KTS BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AMONGST THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE. RICH AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BETWEEN 69 AND 71. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE HAS THE 10TH PERCENTILE AT 67 AND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT 71. A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION FROM A WEAK EML
OVERSPREADS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND HEIGHT CHANGES STAY
PRETTY NEUTRAL TIL ABOUT 21Z BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NEGATIVE
ONCE SHARPLY DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AN AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE GLOBAL-SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE US AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C/KM, DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH
60S TO LOW 70S, AND LARGE SWEEPING HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH
AROUND 250-300 M2/S2. THIS IS ABOUT WHERE THINGS WERE YESTERDAY,
IF NOT SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT, BUT THE SHAPE OF THE JET ABSOLUTELY LENDS
ITSELF TO SUBTLE CHANGES THAT WOULD RESULT IN THE IMPACTED AREA
VARYING GREATLY. THE SHARP INCREASE IN ASCENT DOES MAKE ONE
THINK MORE OF A QUICK UPSCALE TO LINEAR CONVECTION WITH A
WIND/QLCS TORNADO THREAT, BUT I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE SUBTLE
RESIDUAL CAPPING AND KINEMATIC PROFILE SUPPORTING SOME SUPERCELL
THREAT IN WHAT WOULD BE A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS ARE PREDICTABLY
SPIKING IN RESPONSE TO THE PARAMETER SPACE. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN AT 108+ HOURS CAN AND OFTEN DOES SHIFT CONSIDERABLY, BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, AND AS
MUCH AS THESE EVENTS WAX AND WANE AND CHANGE AT THIS RANGE,
HIGHER IMPACT DAYS ALSO TEND TO LOCK IN AT GREAT DISTANCE AND
NOT SPUTTER AND I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
LATTER.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE LOOK TO GET AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF FAIRLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TRICKY FORECAST WITH POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING
THE 11-24Z FRIDAY WINDOW. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF A DECAYING LINE OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TS THAT
WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY
11-16Z. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE LINE, KEPT TS/VCTS
COVERAGE MINIMAL FOR NOW.
AFTER 18Z, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE STARTED WITH FM GROUPS
WITH VCSH OR SHRA WITH PROB30S FOR TSRA ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WIND WILL BE STEADY FROM THE S TO SW
AROUND 7-12 KTS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page