947
FXUS63 KPAH 201109
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT.
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SMALL DAILY 15 TO 25% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VERY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO, FAR SOUTHERN
IL, AND WESTERN KY. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED W TO E JUST NORTH OF THE KY/TN AND MO/AR
BORDER. WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0-2.3" AND TRAINING STORMS, THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS MORNING HAS
THE FRONT SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL 15-25% SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH
DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN SCATTER AND LIFT
TO VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AROUND 4-6 KTS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TONIGHT (AFTER 09-10Z), WIDESPREAD FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME CALM.
LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MVN, CGI, AND PAH, WITH LIGHTER
MVFR FOG FORECAST AT EVV AND OWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ088>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ111-112.
IN...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-
020>022.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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