994
FXUS63 KPAH 261133
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE QUAD STATE
EARLY TODAY, AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES OF RAIN (40-70%) WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
60S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND THEN DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE QUAD STATE AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE MID-60S FOR THE MORNING. HEADING INTO THE
MORNING, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, WHILE
A TOTAL LACK OF SHEAR NEGATES THE MEAGER INSTABILITY, KEEPING
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE ONLY HAZARDS.
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN
THE FORECAST. A GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHES A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE QUAD STATE AND PUSHES THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH. QPF IS HIGHLY CONCENTRATED IN THE
TODAY/TONIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH A TENTH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE, WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY. A MARGINAL ERO COVERS THE QUAD STATE TODAY
BUT IT WILL TAKE TRAINING AND STALLED OUT THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY
RAIN TO GET ANY LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK STALLS OUT A CENTRAL PLAINS
DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST,
INTRODUCING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE THURSDAY. FURTHER INTRUSION FROM THE
MIDWESTERN HIGH IS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN MODEL ENSEMBLES,
CUTTING OFF LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY JUST SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHICH MAY BE CAUGHT UP IN A NW-SE ORIENTED AREA OF
SHOWERS ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE RIDGE. HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
FORECAST IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
MIDWESTERN HIGH BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AMIDST PLENTY OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
NORTH, LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BECOMES MORE COMMON MIDWEEK, DROPPING
BACK TO THE 70S AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARRIVE FOR END OF
WEEK/WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE MID-60S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE LOWER TO NEAR 60 FOR END OF WEEK/WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION,
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. VSBY DROPS ARE
OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, PEAKING AT
AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NE/E. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASES AND FOCUSES IN
THE NORTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN
TODAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING FOG TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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