095
FXUS63 KPAH 141857
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1257 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TOMORROW.
- WITH THE SHIFT TO A COLDER AND BREEZIER PATTERN, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE A CONCERN SEVERAL NIGHTS. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 70%
CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 15 TONIGHT. THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 5 SATURDAY NIGHT.
- SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVES ALOFT BRING CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIE OFF
SOMEWHAT A LITTLE WHILE AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS WITH A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 15
DEGREES.
TOMORROW WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND A GREATER THAN
70% CHANCE THAT THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE IS LESS THAN 32 DEGREES.
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS WIL BRING SOME WAA TOMORROW
NIGHT AND ALONG WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT WE COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
NBM HAS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 0.1" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE AS THE HREF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A 30-70% CHANCE, BUT THE
HREF ALSO HAS A 15% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO AROUND FREEZING BY DAYBREAK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE FROM THERE, SO ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD NOT STICK
AROUND LONG.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL THAT WILL PARADE
THROUGH IN THE COMING DAYS AND REINFORCE THE COLD, WIND, AND LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT
SNOW, WITH THE LREF SHOWING A 20% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 0.1" EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST KY WILL HAVE ABOUT A 15%
CHANCE.
THE COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH A GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE OF LOWS LESS THAN 15 DEGREES (PER THE NBM). WIND CHILLS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS
THAN 5 DEGREES (PER THE LREF). MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND TEENS DOWN SOUTH.
BY WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON
SATELLITE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD
FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER (THOUGH STILL VFR AT AROUND 3,500
FT) MAY LINGER AT THE NORTHERN MOST SITES (MVN, EVV OWB) AS THE
TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE
GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KTS THOUGH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
START TO COME DOWN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET AND WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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