409
FXUS63 KPAH 181058
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING A FACTOR BY THE
AFTERNOON (50-70% CHANCE). SOME RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (80-100%) FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. LEVEL 2 OF 5 SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY BE TOO WEAK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE BUT
STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE TOO LACKING FOR OPTIMAL RAINFALL
RATES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS (AND HUMIDITY) COME BACK BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MCS OVER MISSOURI IS SLOWLY SLINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS ALSO STARTING TO POP UP OVER AR/MO.
ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS VERY SLIGHTLY EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS WITH EARLIEST POPS BY 9 TO 10 AM. MLCAPES IN SEMO ARE
ALREADY ABOUT 2000 J/KG SO A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IN THE 9-12 AM RANGE, MAINLY
OVER SEMO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THINGS CONTINUE TO MOVE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS IN THE
NEAR TERM, WETTER IN THE MEDIUM/LONG-RANGE. FOR TODAY WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT IS PROGGED TO BE
OVERHEAD BY 20-21Z AND LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH OUR INCREASINGLY
SOUPY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE MCS OVER MO/KS MAY MAKE
IT (IN SOME FORM) INTO THE REGION BY ABOUT THAT TIME AS WELL.
THE UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO KEEP SOMETHING GOING THE TREND IS AT LEAST FOR IT TO GENERATE
SOME SORT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE A FOCI
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MLCAPES ARE
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 35-40 KT WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE, LOW SHEAR IS NOT TOO WORRISOME ALTHOUGH A
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS COULD COMPLICATE THE TORNADO
FACTOR A LITTLE. THAT RISK APPEARS HIGHEST ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR ROUGHLY, WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
CWA COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS/COMPLEXES. THESE DO
APPEAR THEY'D HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR WIND/HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AND DID HOIST ANOTHER
TARGETED LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL WORKS CLOSE TO THE AREA AS WE
BEGIN TO FEEL THE LIFTING INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR EXIT
REGION OF A NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES JET MAX. PWATS ARE HIGH,
LAYER WARM-AIR ADVECTION IS MODERATE, JET LEVEL ASCENT/HEIGHT
FALLS ARE SUPPORTIVE AND YOU'LL HAVE THE FRONT IN THE AREA AS
WELL. WE SHOULD END UP WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH A WINDOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN - ALTHOUGH THERE
STILL REALLY AREN'T ANY TOOLS THAT GO TOO NUTS. HREF PMMS MAX
OUT AT 1.5 INCHES OR SO AND IT WOULD TAKE QUITE A BIT MORE THAN
THAT TO FLOOD GIVEN OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
WISE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE, THE LOW SHEAR IS OK BUT THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REALLY BACKS OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND WE MAY NOT
QUITE HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH THERE TO HELP SIGNIFICANTLY ORGANIZE
CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE PART OF WHY THE CAM BASED PRECIP
GUIDANCE IS SO WEAK, THINGS JUST WILL BE TOO SLOPPY TO PRODUCE
OPTIMAL RAINFALL RATES.
THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE TREND IS DEFINITELY FOR MORE
PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE
DRIER/LESS HUMID BUT BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS BACK TO
THE NORTH PUTTING US FIRMLY BACK INTO THE SOUP.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FRIDAY MAY LINE UP TO PRODUCE A LITTLE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ECMWF/GFS AGREEMENT ON SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. AFTER THAT FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE POSITIONING AND SHAPE OF THE CUT
OFF/CLOSED LOWS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT SPIT OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
GET PRETTY JUMBLED. ON BALANCE HOWEVER GENERALLY HUMID AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS A REASONABLE BET. HOPEFULLY WITH
ENOUGH RAIN TO AMELIORATE OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT LEAST A
LITTLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY. CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVER MISSOURI AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE REGION BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS TO SOME DEGREE IS HIGH
TODAY AND HAVE TEMPOS AROUND THE MOST LIKELY TIMES.
TIMING/DURATION IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ILZ075-081-085.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOZ100.
IN...NONE.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ007>009-011-012.
UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page