688
FXUS63 KPAH 111853
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
153 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD WARM LOWS.
- VARIED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- RIGHT NOW THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
POINT.
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S POSSIBLE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEFORE MOVING ON AS A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. 20-30% SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INFILTRATE THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES THEN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO 60-80%, THEN DROPPING DOWN TO A NEAR AREA
WIDE 50-60% WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCES THEN CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT WITH 20-60% CHANCES FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS POINT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. CHANCES TAPER OFF
BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR OUT TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND WILL PICK UP
TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 7-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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