040
FXUS63 KPAH 192256
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE NIGHT/DAY OF SEASONAL CHILL IS EXPECTED. THERE IS UP
TO A 10% CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW 40F TONIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES BY TUESDAY, WITH 80F IN REACH THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST SUCH CHANCE IS THURSDAY, WHEN
THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE 80F IS REACHED OR EXCEEDED.
- BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES COME TOWARD THE WEEK'S END. THIS
INCLUDES A 15% CHANCE STORMS ARE STRONG/SEVERE, AND ABOUT A
50% CHANCE WE SEE UPWARDS TO AN INCH OR BETTER RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY, ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES TO WARM US UP AGAIN FOR THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEK. SO AFTER ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS OF SEASONAL COOL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REACH MORE SOLIDLY AND EXPANSIVELY
INTO AND THRU THE 70S BY TUESDAY; 80S MAKE SOME APPEARANCES
THEREAFTER. FOR REFERENCE, CLIMO NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS RUN NEAR
70F/50F THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY AND AT TIMES GUSTY S-SW WINDS
BUOY THE WARMUP, AND ARE PERHAPS HIGHEST IN GUST POTENTIAL TO
25-30 MPH TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE NBM/DESI
INDICATES ABOUT A 40% CHANCE WE'LL SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
TUESDAY AND FRIDAY, AND CLOSER TO A 60% CHANCE WE'LL SEE IT
THURSDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGING IS STRONG ENOUGH HERE TO PRECLUDE
MOST WEEKDAY PCPN CHANCES WITH THE COMMENCING WARMUP, AS THE
RIDGE KINDA SHUNTS AROUND US ANY QPF THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP.
AS A RESULT, NON-ZERO POPS REMAIN SILENT UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT'S WHEN A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
AND ENTERS THE FORECAST PICTURE WITH BETTER SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. WE ARE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK MENTION FOR DAY 6 AT
THIS WRITING, ATTENDANT TO BEST CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. WE'LL SEE
HOW THAT METAMORPHOSIZES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK BUT
REGARDLESS OF SVR OR NOT, IT OFFERS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN, WITH PEAK POPS IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME. THE NBM QPF OUTPUT SHOWS POTENTIAL TO
APPROACH AN INCH, WHILE THE DESI/NBM SUGGESTS CLOSE TO A 50%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.75". MORE/LINGERING POPS SATURDAY COULD
ADD TO THESE TOTALS A LITTLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG
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