486
FXUS63 KPAH 042035
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
ANOTHER COOL MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
HIGHER RH ABOVE 400MB. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING 1024MB RIDGE IS
CENTERED CLOSE BY AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. A POCKET OF
LIGHT RAIN IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
TOMORROW LOWER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS BEGINS PULLING A FRONT
ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE REGION. 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION
GENERATES LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRETTY GOOD BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THOROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES
PERSISTING. STILL THINKING FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS THOUGH WITH
WIDESPREAD, BUT WEAK, LIFT AVAILABLE. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IS PROJECTED BY NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO CLEAR THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT AND MAXES TUESDAY ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S.
TUESDAY TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BEGINS TO ADVANCE TO THE
EAST, WHICH INCREASES WESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHTENS UP THE THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT A BIT. THIS INCREASED GRADIENT PROVIDES
INCREASED FOCUS FOR LIFT. THE ADDED HEAT/MOISTURE FROM THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVE US A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
WELL, SO A BETTER CHANCE OVERALL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL
BEHAVIOR/POSITION WHICH IS HARD TO PIN DOWN IN MOSTLY PARALLEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DANCING THE FRONTAL POSITION NORTH TO
SOUTH AND BACK NORTH AGAIN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MORE OF THAT
IS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALTER THE POSITION
OF THE MOSTLY SYNOPTICALLY STALLED FRONT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
THE ACTIVE, MOSTLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WED, BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTING AND BEGINNING TO BRING MOISTURE OVER A SURFACE BOUNDARY
JUST TO OUR SOUTH, POPS WILL NOT DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE NEAR THE AR/TN LINES, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TSTMS. MEANWHILE, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATED THE MID AND
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP A MOIST FETCH RIGHT INTO OUR REGION
WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A SOURCE.
IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW,
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THU. THUS, WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (MORE THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS PWATS) STREAMING OVER THE BOUNDARY, HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR.
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL TEND TO DECREASE THU NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. MOST OF FRI
SHOULD BE DRY UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER, MODEL
CONSENSUS (INFLUENCED IN PART BY THE CMC) APPEARED TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT DUE TO LARGE
SCALE TROFFING ALOFT AND ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY MAKING
IT INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA BY SUN (DAY 7). FOR NOW, SAT NIGHT
LOOKS THE WETTEST OUT OF THE WEEKEND PERIODS. AT THIS TIME, TOTAL
QPF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS 3+ INCHES NEAR THE AR/TN
LINES TO SOMEWHAT LESS THAN 2 INCHES NORTH OF I-64.
EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE
INCOMING AIRMASSES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
VFR FLYING EXPECTED UNDER HIGH OVERCAST AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES START TO WORK IN, ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST KY/SEMO, BY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
TRYING TO SETTLE IN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JGG
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JGG
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