537
FXUS63 KPAH 080415
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1115 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 70-90% MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
INCREASES ON MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 50-70% CHANCE.
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND 100
DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARPLY
DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. OBJECTIVE AND MANUAL ANALYSIS SHOW A SMALL ZONE OF
OVERLAP OF 25-30 KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND 25-30 KT 850MB WINDS THAT
COULD CREATE A POCKET OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDER AND
ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SEMO AND SOUTHWEST ILLINIOS. RAP/HRRR INITIATE THIS ABOUT 3-4
AM AFTER RA FEW MORE HOURS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FORM THAT
DIFFLUENT ZONE. HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW IT DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND AROUND 150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WITH A
DECEPTIVELY CURVY LOWEST LEVEL HODOGRAPH. 00Z SGF RAOB MODFIED
TO CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW WE NEED ABOUT 1500-2000 FT OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT TO INITATE AND WE MAY NOT QUITE REACH
THAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POCKETS OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0-8.0 C/KM AND 25-35 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURSTS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE AROUND 2 INCHES
AND SFC MIXING RATIOS NEAR 18 G/KG THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
CAUSING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK AROUND 70-90% MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA WHEN THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUE WILL BE
HIGHER. THIS IS WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE GREATER WITH LOWER CORFIDI STORM MOTION VECTORS. DESPITE
FFG IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE THAT WILL HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
ISSUES, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR 3-5 INCHES LOCALLY OVER
A SHORT DURATION THAT WOULD BE IMPACTFUL. WITH STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING, THIS MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL, POSING MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN RISK VERSUS THE MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FA. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON IS PROGGED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 DEGREES. A
COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO RISE AROUND 100 DEGREES. NBM IS STILL BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THE HEAT RISK INDEX (CATEGORY 2-3) DOES
SUGGEST MOST WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION WILL BE MORE
SENSITIVE THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
50-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME RELIEF TO END THE WEEK ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA. CONVECTION IN A FEW WAVES
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BROAD
PROB30S HIGHLIGHT BOTH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING IN THE VERY
SOUPY AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT TSRA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG
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