513
FXUS63 KPAH 062253
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PARTING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO A COLD DAY SATURDAY. THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE WILL NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.
- SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE NORM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN IT IS A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL REACH 60 DEGREES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
- ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS POINT, THERE ARE
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH THE QUAD STATE AND
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-35 MPH AREA ADVECTING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. IT IS A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE WILL NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK TOMORROW, WHILE MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL ONLY SEE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. THE GUSTINESS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE SUNNY, SO THAT SHOULD HELP IT NOT
FEEL SO BAD DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN SUNDAY LEADING TO A QUICK REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BRING A NICE WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY
AND 60S TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE REGION, AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TYPICAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAINFALL EVENT. THE NBM POPS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 55-65% RANGE OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE IS ONLY 45-50% OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE 12Z
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01" OR
MORE) IS 90% OR GREATER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD
STATE, WHILE THE CHANCE OF 0.10" OR MORE IS MORE IN THE 50-60%
RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFES BEING MORE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY SHUNTING THE RAIN EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE ECENS EMPHASIZES THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THEN IS SLOWER TO PUSH IT EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN AT SOME POINT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT FEW
AREAS, IF ANY, WILL SEE AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH.
LOOKING AT THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THERE SEEM TO BE TWO
MAIN SCENARIOS AMONGST THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE GEFS FAVORS A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRIES US OUT UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT SATURDAY. THE ECENS IS SLOWER WITH THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM AND KEEPS A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY WHICH IS THEN A PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND
DISTURBANCES AT DIFFERENT LATITUDES INTERACTING WITH ONE
ANOTHER, CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER, IT IS
QUITE LIKELY THAT MORE RAIN WILL REACH THE QUAD STATE IN THE
LATE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MFVR CIGS HAVE NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
WILL SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR. THERE
REMAINS A 50-60% CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KPAH, AND A
30-40% CHANCE AT KCGI. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
NORTH WINDS SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DW
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