511
FXUS63 KPAH 291816
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
116 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE MOST FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS A WHOLE BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
- UNTIL THEN, DAILY RAIN CHANCES OFFER LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR
POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 59 IN FWC, TO 73 IN POF.
EXCEPTING AN INITIAL/SHORT-LIVED PUNCH OF DRIER DEW POINTS
SLATED FOR SUNDAY MORNING, THE TREND (HUMID SOUTH/WEST, LESS SO
NORTH/EAST) MORE OR LESS SURVIVES THRU MONDAY, WITH THE ACTUAL
BEST/MOST ROBUST DRY AIR INTRUSION NOW SLATED FOR TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK; THAT'S WHEN UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SPREAD
OVERTOP THE AREA AS A WHOLE, HOLDING THRU THURSDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UNTIL THEN, BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WILL
BE OVER OUR SOUTHWEST...NAMELY SEMO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SWIL/FAR SW KY. NAEFS E-SAT STILL HAS HIGH 1.75" PW'S PUSHING
90TH PERCENTILE AND MOSTLY 2-5 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS. LITTLE
SHEAR/FLOW OTHERWISE MEANS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY ASSOCIATED STORM HAZARDS.
MOST OF OUR 7 DAYS WILL BE SPENT IN THE 60S (NIGHT) AND 70S
(DAY) EXCEPT FOR OFFICIAL HIGHS THAT MIGHT TOUCH THE LOWER 80S
AND OFFICIAL LOWS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 50S AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
RESTRICTED BASES WILL BE MOST PREVALANT AT KCGI-KPAH,
ALTERNATING WITH LOW PROBABILITY POPS/VICINITY MENTION SHRA/TSRA
WHICH MAY ALSO OFFER ACCOMPANYING RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST AT KMVN-KEVV-KOWB, PCPN CHANCES ARE LESS BUT NOT
ZERO, AND BASES RESPOND LIKEWISE, WITH SOME LOWERING THRU BUT
LIKELY REMAINING WITHIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES IN A GENERALLY LIGHT
FLOW ENVIRON FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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