019
FXUS63 KPAH 241848
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AMID RESIDUAL
MOISTURE.
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE REMAINS
POSSIBLE/FORECAST ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
THIS MORNINGS BAND OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAILING
STRATIFORM PRECIP HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW DEEPER SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE GETTING GOING OVER CHRISTIAN/TODD COUNTIES AND THERE SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH FOR THAT ACTIVITY
ALTHOUGH DEEPER ORGANIZING SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK. A MODEST
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AND SHOULD
REDUCE HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT STAYS
SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE VICINITY SO STRAY SHOWERS MAY FIRE UP IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS MOST OF THE ANALYSIS
TODAY HAS BEEN ON MONDAY. OVERALL A CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
SETUP STILL APPEARS IN PLACE, PERHAPS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD/SLOWER, BUT OTHERWISE A LOT LIKE IT HAS LOOKED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS CONCERNING FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.
METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS:
SYNOPTICALLY A 110 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET
MAX WORKS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS PINCHES A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE LEADING EDGE AS IT MARCHES ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHICH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON LEADS TO STRONGLY
DIRECTIONALLY DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A ~995 MB SFC LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO PRODUCE 15-20 KT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND 40 TO 50 KT 850MB WINDS. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS OUTPUT HAVE OUR SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE MORE
BACKED, BUT I THINK GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK TYPE ISSUES ARE LOWERING
SFC PRESSURES ALONG VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE THAN
WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF HAS HINTS OF THIS TOO
HOWEVER. LOOKING AT THE 12Z ECWMF JET PROFILE THE PEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/DCVA MIGHT BE JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS, SO I THINK IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS SOUTHEAST OF THE PARENT SFC LOW THAT MIGHT LEAD TO THE
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE NECESSARY TO GET THAT EXTRA LITTLE BACKING
IN THE SURFACE WINDS. RICH BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
FROM THE GULF ON THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL MODELED IN THE 67-71 DEGREE RANGE OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. THE GFS INITIATES VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL MO ABOUT 21Z, AND THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THAT. A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS PRESENT IN MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, PRESUMABLY FROM A WEAK EML. THIS CAP WOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOSTLY HOLD BACK SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
UNTIL PEAK HEATING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR QUITE
EXCEPTIONAL AT 7.5 TO EVEN 8 DEGREES C/KM. IF YOU TAKE THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE, OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
YOU GET ABOUT 3000-3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 0-1M SRH 200-250
M2/S WITH LARGE SWEEPING HODOGRAPHS. THE RAPID CHANGEOVER OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM NEUTRAL TO SHARPLY POSITIVE MIGHT HELP
SUPPORT UPSCALING TO LINEAR FEATURES FAIRLY QUICKLY, BUT I AM
CONCERNED THE WEAK RESIDUAL CAPPING INVERSION MIGHT SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THIS IS STILL USING GLOBAL MODEL LEVEL RESOLUTION,
BUT IT IS A VERY CONCERNING SETUP. MACHINE LEARNING OUTPUT AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
EVENT AS WELL AND PAINT A HIGHER LEVEL THREAT THAN YOUR AVERAGE
SPRING SEVERE EVENT.
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS:
THIS IS STILL MODELING A MODESTLY SMALL FEATURE (THE PEAK
DIFFLUENCE/SHORTWAVE) AT FAIRLY LONG METEOROLOGICAL LEAD TIMES
AND SHIFTS IN THE INTENSITY AND AREA ARE ABSOLUTELY STILL
POSSIBLE, AND EVEN LIKELY. WE COULD END UP MORE IN THE RIGHT
FRONT (CONVERGENT) QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AND STRUGGLE TO
HAVE CONVECTION BREAK OUT.
THE "BULLSEYE" OF THIS EVENT MAY END UP BEING A FAIRLY SMALL
GEOGRAPHIC AREA THAT COULD VARY. THE STRONGEST IMPACTS COULD
ALSO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY, WE ARE FORECASTING 2-4 KM SCALE
PROCESSES 84 HOURS FROM NOW, LOTS COULD STILL HAPPEN.
WE STILL HAVEN'T SEEN THIS WITH OUR INCREASINGLY HIGH-
PERFORMING/USEFUL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THOSE RUN OUT TO
ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS SO WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO WAIT FOR
THAT. HAVING THIS DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY/CONCERN EVEN 5 TO 10
YEARS AGO ON AN EVENT WOULD HAVE BEEN UNTHINKABLE.
SOMETIMES THE MODELED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DON'T QUITE PAN OUT
IT'S THE WEATHER, WEIRD THINGS HAPPEN AND WE CAN'T SEE, MEASURE,
MODEL OR CONSIDER EVERYTHING.
MORE CONCERNING FACTORS:
THE MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY STRONG WITH THIS. HIGH-
IMPACT EVENTS OFTEN CARRY A LITTLE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY
AND THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES.
DEWPOINTS ARE VERY RICH AND THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.
MODEL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXCEPTIONAL.
SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES. IT WOULD ALSO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF QLCS TORNADOES IF MORE LINEAR FEATURES DEVELOP.
ONE CHANGE FROM 12-24 HOURS AGO IS THE ECMWF 12Z IS GIVING A
LITTLE BIT OF A SHORTWAVE TUESDAY THAT PULLS SOME RETURN FLOW
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT OVER THE
COMING FORECAST CYCLES.
THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR NOW LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENTLY PROGGED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WE KIND OF STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY THERE BUT SOME RAIN/THUNDER MAY DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING/DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE HARDER TO COME
BY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM ABOUT EVV TO HOP BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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