366
FXUS63 KPAH 180613
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
113 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (60-100%
CHANCES) WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY.
- GOOD CHANCES (45-65%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH 80-100%
CHANCES ACROSS THE PAH FA THROUGH 12Z. CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY 18Z, AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST
KENTUCKY BY 00Z. 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
PENNYRILE EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 7-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 36 TO 43, WITH THE COLDER
READINGS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND THIS WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE 80S.
MODELS SHOW A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THE MODEL BLEND SPREAD 20-40%
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR COUNTIES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 45-65% CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LIMITED CHANGES FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. BROKEN LINE OF WANING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE LINE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18-00Z. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...AD
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