071
FXUS63 KPAH 070540
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (RANGING FROM 30-60%) ARE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SEVERE CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW (LESS
THAN 5%). SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES (5-15%) MAY
CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING EACH DAY,
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT IS VERY
WEAK, LESS THAN 15 KTS, SO LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, SO INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS THAT PULSE UP BRIEFLY TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
(TYPICAL SUMMER STORMS). THERE WILL ALSO BE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (1.8 TO 2") THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY PUSHES EAST BY THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST INTO
THE MIDWEST. AHEAD OF IT, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90/LOW 90S, HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 100 AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK AS SHORTWAVES
PUSH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD INDUCE 0-6KM SHEAR OF AT LEAST
20 KTS, AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 30 KTS, BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND QUITE POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY (GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THAT). AT THE SAME TIME, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
(DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S) WILL YIELD HIGHER INSTABILITY AS MLCAPE
MAY PUSH TO AT LEAST 3000 J/KG AGAIN. THE END RESULT MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ML PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO PAINT HIGHER SEVERE PROBS OF 5-15% LATE WEEK, WITH THE FIRST
WINDOW POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTH AND THEN
ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SATURDAY
UNSETTLED, THERE IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCES MAY PUSH EAST AND SHOVE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE MAY HAVE
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TO CONTEND WITH, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE WE OUR
PRIMARILY DRY BY THEN. THE UPPER RIDGE LIKELY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SEVERAL DRY DAYS FOR US. AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURN TO 90 OR ABOVE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 8-9Z. AFTER IMPROVEMENTS, A ROUND OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND MID MORNING. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS. WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page