714
FXUS63 KPAH 212348
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NORTH. NBM HAS A 40-70% CHANCE OF SEEING 8+" OF SNOW IN 48
HRS. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.
- PROLONGED COLD IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. THURSDAY, FRIDAY,
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY WIND CHILLS WILL BE PUSHING OR ALMOST
SOLIDLY INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
WAA IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING US HIGHS IN THE
40S AND IS ALSO ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS
MORNING'S RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
WE ARE UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT CONTINUES TOMORROW WITH
INCREASED SFC RIDGING FROM STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH NBM
SHOWING A 40% CHANCE OF HIGHS LESS THAN 25 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE QUAD STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE TX
GULF COAST AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH LA AND INTO WESTERN TN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND ICE TO THE MS, TN, AND OH VALLEYS.
FOR THE QUAD STATE, MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH
THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS. THE EC HAS HAD 3 CONSECUTIVE RUNS NOW
SHOWING PADUCAH GETTING 12" OF SNOW, WHILE THE NBM HAS TOTALS AROUND
10".
THE NBM HAS A 40-70% CHANCE OF 48 HR SNOW TOTALS GREATER THAN 8" AND
THE LREF IS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH A 40-60% CHANCE. THIS IS A NOTED
INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS BUT IS ON PAR WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND.
NBM SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW THIS RUN
BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LIFT HIGHER UP
IN THE ATMOSPHERE (550-500 MB) WITHIN THE DGZ. SATURATION IS ALSO
MAINTAINED FROM THIS LEVEL DOWN TO THE SFC AND STAYS BELOW FREEZING
THE WHOLE TIME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AREAS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WHICH COULD SEE A WARM NOSE IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WOULD LEAD TO
ICING CONCERNS. THERE ARE MODEST WINDS BELOW 650 MB SO DENDRITES MAY
NOT FRACTURE QUITE AS MUCH. FINALLY, THERE IS MORE BRIEF LIFT WITHIN
THE DGZ BETWEEN 900 AND 975 MB. GIVEN ALL THIS, I HAVE INCREASED THE
SLRS FROM WHAT NBM HAD AND MADE THEM CLOSER TO 13-14 FOR MOST OF THE
HEART OF THE CWA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALOFT FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG JET, ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT THE SFC.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED ICING CONCERNS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WOULD BE MIXED IN WITH SNOW TOTALS. RIGHT NOW THE NBM HAS
TRENDED UP WITH THE ICING TOTALS TO AROUND 0.08". THESE ICING
CONCERNS COULD SPREAD FURTHER NORTH IF MODELS KEEP TRENDING
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.
DUE TO THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR COMING OFF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
THE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
THE NORTHERN EDGE SNOW GRADIENT. EVEN WITH THIS SHARP CUTOFF, SNOW
TOTALS HAVE TRENDED NORTH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOW THE ENTIRE CWA IS
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
PLENTY CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
PROLONGED COLD IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THURSDAY
NIGHT PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE PUSHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (0 FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND -5 ELSEWHERE). FRIDAY NIGHT
WIND CHILLS WILL BE ALMOST SOLIDLY INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AT KPAH, KEVV AND KOWB.
IF THERE IS CLEARING BEFORE THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
ARRIVES AT THOSE SITES, WEAKENING WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
FORMATION. MENTIONED SOME BR, BUT KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE CLEARING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN SOME LLWS
CONCERN IN THE LATE EVENING. ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, THEY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL UNDER 10KTS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DRS
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