092
FXUS63 KPAH 281114
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
514 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-65% CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
- A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK TO MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WITH A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH A 60-85% CHANCE OF
SEEING OVER 0.5".
- WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BEING
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARK TWAIN
PORTIONS OF THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THERE
IS A SMALL (ABOUT 20%) CHANCE OF SOME RAIN OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI-
STATE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND MUCH
CLOSER TO NORMAL (15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY).
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A LOT MORE ZONAL AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A SMALL AREA OF PVA MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY/WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE, COUPLED WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WITH OVER RUNNING MOISTURE. THIS SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS A 50-65%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS, TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED DOWN 2-3 DEGREES. THIS IS MOST
IMPACTFUL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS NOW
THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. ALSO, ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON THE
TEMPERATURES AND THEY MAY VERY WELL FLIP BACK TO THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL IS IN THE 09-15Z
RANGE MONDAY WITH WARMING AFTER THAT. SLRS LOOK TO BE AROUND THE
7/8:1 RANGE, SO A VERY WET SNOW AND POSSIBLY A MIX AT TIMES.
AFTER MONDAY THERE IS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT TO A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW DISCREPANCIES TO WORK
OUT SUCH AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AGREEMENT AT MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL BRING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP MONDAY ONWARD RANGING FROM AT LEAST 30% TO AROUND 70% AT
TIMES. BENEFICIAL RAIN IS IN STORE WITH A 60-85% CHANCE OF SEEING
OVER 0.5" OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A 30-70%
CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 1" OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE
GREATEST CHANCES ARE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SEMO, SOUTHERN IL,
AND SOUTHWEST IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
WILL BRING AHEAD OF IT AND WITH IT A BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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