964
FXUS63 KPAH 271700
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S/50S CONTINUES THRU MONDAY.
- MORE SUMMER-LIKE 80S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES APPEARING OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK, AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OR A CHANCE THEREOF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NO MODELING HAS CAPTURED THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SPRINKLES OVER A SLIVER OF OUR WESTERN-THIRD OF THE FA
YESTERDAY OR TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE MAIN THEME OF PLEASANTLY
COOL AND DRY 70S/50S WILL HOLD THRU MONDAY. THE STRENGTH OF HOLD
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOSENS TUESDAY AS NEAR SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS
FROM THE REINFORCING COOL NORTHEASTERLIES TO WARMER ADVECTING
SOUTHERLIES, LEADING TO A MARKED WARMUP FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK. WE'LL BE INTO SUMMER-LIKE 80S/60S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES REAPPEARING BY THURSDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WETTER PATTERN MAY YIELD APPRECIABLE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL MEASURED IN 3 DECIMALS INSTEAD OF 2, AND AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POISED TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST PICTURE BY WEEK'S END; THAT'S WHEN A COLD FRONT MAKES
APPROACH AND PASSAGE, LEADING TO ANOTHER COOLDOWN INTO THE 70S
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SATELLITE AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS LAYERED MOISTURE
HOLDING FIRM THRU THIS PACKAGE AT ALL TERMINALS, AT LEAST AOA
H7. DRY LOWER LAYERS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE
DENSER MID LEVEL DECKS FROM REACHING RUNWAYS, THOUGH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES NEARER KCGI-KMVN IN THE SHORT TERM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN,
SO OVERALL, A PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECAST HOLDS WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CIGS THE RULE, EXCEPTING OCCASIONAL/TEMPORARY PERIODS
OF SCT BASE POTENTIAL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A PATCHY
FOG POSSIBILITY, BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS HOLDING THAN NOT, PLUS SUCH
A DRY COLUMN BELOW H7 AND SUCH LOW PROBS, WE'LL PRECLUDE FROM
ITS MENTION AT THIS PACKAGE WRITING AND WITHOLD FOR FUTURE
CONSIDERATION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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