545
FXUS63 KPAH 101712
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAZARD FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN A FINAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY BRING STRONG
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN, IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
BROAD SWATH 1-3" ACROSS SEMO/SWIL/FAR WKY DID CONTAIN WITHIN IT
POCKETS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS CUMULATIVELY TOTALING 2-3X THE AREAL
AVERAGE, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THAT OCCURRED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE TIMING OF
YESTERDAY'S ROUND BUT PERHAPS DISPLACED SOME TO THE EAST WITH
THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
NE MO ACROSS SCNTRL IL INTO SW IN TONIGHT. IT WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/JUICE THIS EVENING TO YIELD A SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY, BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF
TRAINING/REPEAT STORMS GET GOING, OUR FORECAST AVERAGE AMOUNTS
OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" THRU THE WEEKEND MAY SEE LOCALIZED TOTALS
TWICE THAT OR BETTER, KEEPING THE FLOODING CONCERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FINAL ROUND LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL YIELD SMALL SEVERE CHANCES AND MORE HEAVY RAIN TO CONTEND
WITH, BUT GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND TIMING IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE PREVIOUS DAY(S) CONVECTION AND HOW
THAT'LL ULTIMATELY BE MODELLED...STAY TUNED FOR FINE TUNES.
WHILE PCPN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE TRANSITION TO A HIGHER PRESSURE INFLUENCED SENSIBLE WX
FORECAST OVERALL, RESULTING IN A LITTLE HOTTER/DRIER CONDITIONS
BY THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
CONTINUED RESTRICTED BASES/CIGS LINGER TODAY, BUT MAY SCT TO VFR
AT TIMES BEFORE THE NEXT INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES INCOMING LATE
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
TO GO AS LOW AS INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WIND POTENTIAL AS THE PARENT CONVECTION-DRIVING WAVE MAKES
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST
AS THE WAVE DEPARTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
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