786
FXUS63 KPAH 042346
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND AFTER A
BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY, IT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MOST SNOW
MELTING COMPLETELY BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING WITH RIVERS RUNNING VERY LOW.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (70-90%
CHANCE) OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST DAYS, AND EVEN A
50-70% CHANCE AT HIGHS REACHING 60 DEGREES SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY, WHEN A BRIEF WARMUP WILL
OCCUR. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVERALL, SO THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA,
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AGAIN, MOISTURE IS LIMITED, SO CONTINUED THE
DRY TREND FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY, AND THEN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE 40S/50S ON FRIDAY TO THE 30S/40S
ON SATURDAY.
THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME
RIDGED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER,
WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 50S. IN FACT, THERE'S ROUGHLY
A 50-60% CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER SEMO AND WESTERN KY
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA HAS ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE. BEYOND SUNDAY,
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A 70-90% CHANCE OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES. A COUPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD, WHICH
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY,
IT DOES LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO BE ALL RAIN, BUT THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER COULD PULL BACK THE TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THOSE
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS, AND ONGOING N WINDS AT 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN PICK UP FROM THE SW AROUND 4-7 KTS
AFTER 18Z. A SATURATED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
PLENTIFUL MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS AND SKY COVERAGE ONGOING EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THROUGH MOST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BASES AT ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED BY 17-21Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS
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