074
FXUS63 KPAH 221747
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
WESTERN KY THANKS TO GOOD MIXING LEADING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND BREEZIER WINDS, AND IN TURN LOWER RH VALUES.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS SMALL, BUT NOT QUITE ZERO.
- MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS
GIVES US WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GIVING US A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER AND PROBABLY SLIGHTLY GUSTIER CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY.
THAT TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH BY FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE HAVE FAIRLY DECENT COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER AND DEEP AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND SPOKES OF DCVA
PRODUCE A FAIRLY LONG WINDOW WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP -
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE IS ABOUT 600 WITH MUCAPE FOR ELEVATED
PARCELS ABOUT 1200 J/KG. QPF IS STILL ABOUT 0.80 TO 1.20 INCHES
WITH THE 1.00 OR GREATER PROBABILITY ON THE NBM ABOUT 55-60%
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PICTURE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINS WITH SOME ATTENDANT THUNDER AND THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS QUITE LOW.
THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY APPEARS BETTER ALIGNED TO BRING A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TIGHTENS UP
THE SUBTROPICAL JET INTO A ZONAL 100-110 KT MAXIMA OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW TRANSITS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT JET AND
OPENS UP INTO A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THIS LEADS TO STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A LEE CYCLONE FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY AND ARCS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY NIGHT, HOLDING INTENSITY BETWEEN ABOUT
995-998MB. THIS RESULTS IN 24-30 HOURS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW THAT LOADS WESTERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE AIR INTO THE
AREA AND PUTS OUR DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. 850MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35-40 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 7.0
TO 7.5 DEGC/KM. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST WHICH
PROVIDES A LITTLE BIT OF CAPPING ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THE END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS BY THE AFTERNOON IS ABOUT
2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOOPING HODOGRAPHS
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO LIFT THROUGH ANY CAPPING INVERSION
AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO LIFT ANY REMAINING PARCELS. CIPS
ANALOGS/CSU MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS AND THE REGULAR EYEBALL
TEST HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS
ALWAYS AT THIS RANGE THERE ARE A MYRIAD OF THINGS THAT COULD
CHANGE WHAT WE SEE NOW APPEARS TO HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH CEILING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
AFTER THAT IT APPEARS WE STAY IN A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH
MOISTURE RETURN FOLLOWED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGES
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS MUCH TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THE MOMENT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page