261
FXUS63 KPAH 130706
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
206 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE) THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105-115 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY). TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PULL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
(20-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL PASS THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE
A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY; HOWEVER, ANOTHER
MCS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST TRENDS WOULD HAVE THIS STAYING JUST NORTH OF
THE CWA, ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL IN TO SOUTHWEST OH THIS EVENING. IT MAY BRUSH CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IN, BUT THE CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY SLIM OVERALL. KEPT A 20-30% CHANCE UP NEAR THE EVANSVILLE TRI-
STATE AREA, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT, THE SPC HAS KEPT THE
SOUTHWEST IN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KY/IL IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS IF
STORMS HAPPEN TO PASS THROUGH THAT AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB ALONG WITH THE HUMIDITY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AS KEPT
IN PLACE AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105-115 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND! THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF EXTREME
HEAT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT, ANY BREAK IN THE HEAT WOULD BE GREAT!!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA AFTER STORMS MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR
ST. LOUIS MAY WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS MVN NEAR MORNING AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. PUT IN A PROB30 AT MVN BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOWER SIDE CURRENTLY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AND START CLEARING OUT IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-8 KTS AND WILL
COME DOWN OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-
081>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-081>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ080.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING TO
8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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