163
FXUS63 KPAH 061746
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1246 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF CHANCES (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 100 TO AROUND 105
DEGREE RANGE.
- A LITTLE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENING OVER OUR REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN OUR VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE UPPER
TROF WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
(40-60%) LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA, WITH MORE
UNIFORM 20-30% CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION, WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME
WILL REACH THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
100 TO AROUND 105 DEGREE RANGE. BY MID WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PUTS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT TEMPERATURES INTO A
DOWNWARD TREND ALONG WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
IFR CIGS AT KMVN WILL DISSIPATE BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS, AND DAYTIME
CUMULUS AT 050-070. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AT
KMVN BETWEEN 05Z-14Z, AND AT KCGI MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z, WITH
JUST A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KPAH AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL WILL
BE VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 04Z-10Z AND INCREASING TO
5-10KTS AFTER 14Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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