188  
FXUS63 KPAH 242322  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
 
UPDATE IS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF'S. ALSO, IN OUR PUBLIC PRODUCTS, WE  
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING TIME FRAME. WE SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ELEVATED  
LI'S LIFTING PARCELS FROM H8/H7, ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6  
C/KM. ALSO SEE ELEVATED INSTANTANEOUS FLASH RATES IN THE ECMWF  
DATA, AND HRRR LIGHTNING DENSITY PROG DATA. THERE MAY NOT BE TOO  
MUCH TO IT, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE  
VIGOROUS MID TROP S/WV.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY  
AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE  
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO  
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA SHORTLY  
BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING  
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, AND A CHANCE OF  
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHWESTERN IN, AND  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KY, MAINLY BETWEEN  
MIDNIGHT AND MID-MORNING FRI. AREAS NORTH OF I-64 WILL HAVE THE  
HIGHEST POPS (AS HIGH AS LIKELY). THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH  
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY AROUND NOON EVERYWHERE AS SKIES RAPIDLY  
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE SURFACE  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUN, WHEN THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW  
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A  
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 10-15 MPH SUN FOR US, PERSISTING SUN NIGHT,  
BUT SETTLING DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMUP WILL CONTINUE UNDER  
AMPLE DAYTIME SUNSHINE, ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF PAUSE BECAUSE OF THE  
COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S NEARLY  
EVERYWHERE BY SUN AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER HALF  
OF THE 50S IN GENERAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
 
ENSEMBLE MODELING SUGGESTS A WARM/DRY LONG TERM PORTION OF THE  
FORECAST, DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC  
COLUMN. CIPS ANALOG DATA STILL STRONGLY PAINTS A DRY/BELOW NORMAL  
PCPN PERIOD, AND EVEN THE EXPERIMENTAL CPC OUTPUT INDICATES THIS  
COULD STRETCH EVEN LONGER, FOR A PROLONGED DRY SPELL PERHAPS  
MEASURED IN WEEK(S).  
 
THAT SAID, THE MID WEEK PERIOD DOES OFFER A POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL,  
AT LEAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WORKS  
NORTHWARD FROM ITS LOWER VALLEY. IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE STRENGTH  
OF THE HOLDING RIDGE JUST TO ITS EAST, AND FOR NOW, IT LOOKS TO HOLD  
STRONG AND EVEN BACKBUILDS AGAIN, SO OUR ACCEPTED BLENDED POPS ARE  
MINIMAL, AND RESTRICTED TO THE SEMO OZARKS, BUT STILL AUDIBLY  
PRESENT.  
 
THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE AND SUCCEEDING DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL  
HELP TEMPS RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE  
LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
 
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BEST CHANCES EAST OF  
THE MS RIVER AND ESPECIALLY SE IL, SW IN AND NW KY. CIGS WILL  
LOWER BUT BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE FRONT. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES  
ANTICIPATED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS  
STILL LOWER THAN AVERAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE  
MORNING TO MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SSW 4  
TO 8 KTS, SWITCHING TO THE N/NW 5 TO 10 KTS MORNING TO MIDDAY  
SATURDAY. NOW THROUGH 06 UTC, QUIET WEATHER WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...08  
SHORT TERM...DB  
LONG TERM...DH  
AVIATION...08  
 
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