313
FXUS63 KPAH 032315
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
615 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
A PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEATWAVE WITH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 103-110 DEGREES. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF
NEEDING TO EXTEND ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT HEADLINES INTO SUNDAY
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY.
- MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES AND SEVERAL RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THESE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL ELEVATE
HEAT IMPACTS TO AN EXTREME LEVEL EVEN MORE THROUGH THE START
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT PROVIDE RELIEF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AT
THE EARLIEST, WITH ONLY A 10-25% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR PRIMARILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
EXTREME HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE QUAD STATE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 AND HEAT INDICES
AROUND 103-110 CONTINUE EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS IN
THE MID-70S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDE LIMITED RELIEF AND
HELP SURGE HEATRISK TO LEVEL 3 (MAJOR) TO 4 (EXTREME) OVER THE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH QUICK WARMING THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WERE LIFTED
SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (MAINLY SEMO), TO TRACK CLOSER TO
YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S HAVE MIXED DOWN
TO THE UPPER 60S IN SOME SPOTS, BUT A LITTLE MOISTURE FROM
EDUARDO'S REMNANTS WILL HELP KEEP DEW POINTS FROM LOWERING
MUCH. AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY A FEW RECORDS (HIGHS OR
WARM LOWS) MAY BE SET. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT VEGETATION AND INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE STARTS, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP
MITIGATE SPREAD.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING DURING THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE'S VERY LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS OUT OF
SILENT TERRITORY FOR NOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL UNLESS
A THUNDERSTORM CAN GET GOING. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON DETERMINING HEAT
PRODUCT NEEDS FOR SUNDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOWEST
CHANCES ARE IN THE NORTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST AND
DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S...WHICH
IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND CENTERS OVER THE
QUAD STATE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. FORECAST HEAT INDICES REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SOME OF THIS DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON RIDGE PLACEMENT, BUT HEATRISK EXPANDS LEVEL 3
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE MIDWEEK. ADVISORY OR NOT,
THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. CAN'T
RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SHALLOW FOG AT KCGI, AS THEY MAY
DIP CLOSE TO THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SW AROUND 4-6 KTS LATE MORNING TOMORROW AS SCT CU DEVELOP WITH
BASES AROUND 6-8KFT. BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY
TERMINAL THOUGH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
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