352
FXUS63 KPAH 110626
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS(20-50% CHANCES) WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
KENTUCKY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU TO PADUCAH TO
HOPKINSVILLE.
- AFTER MOSTLY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- ON AND OFF LOW END CHANCES (20-35%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR TUESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
MODELS BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
(20-50%) AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
AFFECTING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
GIRARDEAU TO PADUCAH TO HOPKINSVILLE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS,
WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY OR JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING A LITTLE FARTHER BEHIND
THE FRONT. WE WILL SEE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING DEW POINTS, SO IT MAY AT LEAST FEEL A
LITTLE COOLER. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH, INCREASING ON FRIDAY.
THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW POINTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S FRIDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TIMING
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS. THE MODEL
BLEND PRODUCES ON AND OFF 20-35% CHANCES AT BEST OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AND PINPOINTING THE BEST TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SOME LIGHT RAIN, PRIMARILY IMPACTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS, WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUD
WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ASIDE FROM SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE,
GENERALLY NO STRONGER THAN 7 KTS ON MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
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