016
FXUS63 KPAH 280704
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE WEEK, BUT THE HEAT WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE QUAD STATE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE QUAD STATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY, THEN BUILD TO THE EAST, ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THEN TREND UPWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. THE NBM HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING AT LEAST 90 ON WEDNESDAY, AND A 30-90%
CHANCE ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST EACH DAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH OF MIXING,
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY OUTPERFORM THE NBM NUMBERS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP INTO THE 20-30% RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, SO FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE NBM HAS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT,
AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED, SO NO THUNDER OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND IS QUITE MURKY, AND
APPEARS TO BE IN FLUX AT THIS TIME. THE 00Z EC AND GFS HAVE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO THAT GOES LIKE THIS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM NOW SHEARS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF ITS ENERGY WILL STREAM OVER THE QUAD STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THEN
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DESCEND ON THE GREAT LAKES AND
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.
AS ALWAYS THE NBM LAGS THE TREND, AND THAT MAY NOT BE A BAD
THING IN THIS SITUATION, WITH INFLUENCES FROM MULTIPLE STREAMS
ALOFT. THIS NBM-BASED FORECAST STILL HAS POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING EVERY PERIOD THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT'S
COLD FRONT AND WILL THEN TREND EVEN COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH CLOUD IS GRADUALLY ERODING, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAVE BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON MONDAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND
GENERAL CLEARING TREND. HOWEVER, THE DRY COLUMN IN PLACE IN THE
LOW LEVELS SHOULD NEGATE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP
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