221
FXUS63 KPAH 152138
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START FEELING MORE LIKE
SUMMER-TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF MID TO UPPER 80S
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
SLATED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODEST RISKS FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY EMERGE IN THIS PERIOD, MOST LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
OVERALL A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND
PERIOD BEFORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION
OF THE H50 PATTERN. CAPPING ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HERE, A WEAK MOISTURE POOL COULD CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STORM OR TWO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES BY SATURDAY
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW END POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL, WHICH IS SHOWING UP IN VARIOUS CAM
SOLUTIONS. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS ON
SATURDAY WITH 30-60% CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL US WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BY TUESDAY, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND QUICKLY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE START TO SEE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION GIVEN
THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PWATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WHICH SUGGEST A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A SHORT WAVE RIPPLE OF ENERGY SHOOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING OF A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. IT OFFERS THE IMPETUS FOR ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL, WITH OTHERWISE TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATING TOP-DOWN COLUMNAR MOISTENING OFFERING PRIMARILY MID
TO HIGH BASED VFR CIGS. UPPER END MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOW PROBS FORECASTING FOR THEIR BEST POTENTIAL TIME PERIOD,
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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