953
FXUS63 KPAH 121147
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEADLINE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL AND/OR EXTENDED HEAT
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (30-60% CHANCE) WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MAIN THREATS.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PULL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
(20-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN A BIT TOWARD THE WEEKEND. A SOMEWHAT
TROUGHED PATTERN IS JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DIRECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
(MCS) THROUGH OR NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST EARLY LOOK AT
TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4PM AND 10PM; HOWEVER, TIMING AND
PLACEMENT WILL DEPEND LARGELY WHEN/WHERE THE COMPLEX STARTS UP. THE
LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE COMPLEX WOULD ALREADY BE STARTING
AROUND 7AM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN IA. THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TUESDAY'S CONVECTION WITH
THE MORE EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY AVAILABLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
OUTFLOW/BOUNDARY LAYED OUT BY THE STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE
3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX WITH MCS ASSOCIATED SHEAR
AROUND 30KTS. DCAPE IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE COMPLEX AGAIN LENDING SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT TO A DAMAGING WIND
TYPE OF AN EVENT AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP AND RACE THROUGH THE AREA. 60-
70 MPH WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHERE THE COMPLEX PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. THE SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK A BIT FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM EARLIER OUTLOOKS AND IS HIGHLIGHTING THE WIND
POTENTIAL. PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL LEAD TO VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB ALONG WITH THE HUMIDITY. THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES WERE
EXTENDED WITH THIS UPDATE; HOWEVER, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT
THEY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE 105 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY'S CONVECTION MAY HELP
TO PULL BACK ON THE TEMPS, BUT THAT IS LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON
THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IT WILL BE LATE
ENOUGH THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE HOT!
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT, AN BREAK IN THE HEAT WOULD BE GREAT!!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE AT MVN/EVV/OWB, WITH A LESSER THREAT
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
STORMS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW, SO KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. AFTER THAT ROUND OF STORMS PASS, NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-081>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ080.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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