731
FXUS63 KPAH 071757
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-60% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 DEGREES SATURDAY, AND IN THE 100 TO
108 DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE 20-60% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THEN ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. DUE TO
THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO A HALF INCH, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE RAMPING UP A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXPANDS FARTHER EAST, AND DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. ON SATURDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90 TO AROUND
95 DEGREE RANGE, AND HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES. IT
IS POSSIBLE WE COULD NEED A HEAT ADVISORY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY MID WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING, AND MODELS SHOW
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA,
SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THEN HOVER AT 40-60% FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS OF
AT LEAST AN INCH. OF COURSE, THIS IS PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST, AND MUCH FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN/CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AROUND KCGI/KMVN
THROUGH 00Z-02Z. AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY, VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
5-10KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 5KTS AFTER 13Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page