351
FXUS63 KPAH 032327
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT, DRY AND SEASONABLE
MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OPEN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK/DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE
INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE WARM UP.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER. HOWEVER, AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND H5 RIDGING INCREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5-10
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTION THE REGION COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
NEXT 10 DAYS OR SO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOKING
AT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM (IN CENTRAL AR) UNDER THE HIGH CLOUD
DECK IS AN MVFR DECK THAT MAY CONTINUE TO ADVECT UP THIS WAY. AT
THIS TIME MODELS ARE KEEPING A LOWER, ~20% PROBABILITY THAT
THESE MVFR CIGS REACH CGI AND PAH ON A BKN OR OVC LEVEL. SO FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH FEW AND SCT DECKS.
OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE CONTINUATION OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL CLOUD DECK WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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