131
FXUS63 KPAH 211750
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL PCPN IS FORECAST; THE WETTEST TIME PERIODS LOOK
TO BE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
- 1 TO 2 INCHES OF AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MID
WEEK NEXT. THERE IS AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE THAT 1 INCH IS
REALIZED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND; THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE 2
INCHES IS EXCEEDED BY NEXT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHILE A MORE ACTIVELY 'WET' PATTERN IS EMERGING, IT WILL NOT BE
WET/RAINY THE WHOLE TIME. RATHER, WE'LL SEE IT IN SURGES, TIED
TO PERIODIC PULSES OR WAVES OF ENERGY THAT SPREAD OUT OVER A
WEEK'S TIME. STORM TOTAL AVERAGE QPF THRU MID WEEK NEXT IS 1-2",
BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE REALIZED VIA CONVECTION
AND/OR ANY REPEAT TRAINING THAT MAY OCCUR. THE NAEFS E-SAT
DEPICTS 99TH PERCENTILE 1.75"+ PW'S WITH 5-10 YR R.I'.S WITH
THE FIRST ROUND FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, SO HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL
EXISTS. THIS MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO MINOR/LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING AS IT OCCURS, WITH SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
ESP ON OUR SMALLER STEMS; THIS LATTER PATTERN IS ALREADY
ONSETTING AND WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR EXPANSION AS THE
REAL-TIME BASIN TOTALS ARE INCORPORATED.
SATURDAY OFFERS AN IN-BETWEEN RECOVERY DAY FOR MOST AS THE
FRIDAY SURGE DEPARTS AND THE NEXT SURGE PREPS FOR SUNDAY ONSET.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST STRONG-SVR RISK REMAINS SOUTH AND/OR
EAST WITH TIME, INCLUDING FRIDAY, BUT RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW OVERHEAD AS
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE WAVE(S) SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY DOES
SUPPORT THE EXISTING MRGL RISK IN THE WARM SECTOR/OVER THE
PENNYRILE MAINLY EAST OF THE LAKES.
THANKS TO THE HIGH POPS DAILY, SKY COVER AND PCPN RESULTS IN
TEMPS THAT WILL SPEND MOST OF THEIR DAYTIME IN THE 70S AND
NIGHT-TIME IN THE 60S...IE MUTED...DESPITE ACTUAL HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THAT TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
BREAKS IN RESTRICTED BASES MAY OCCUR BUT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED BY COMPARISON, AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTENING IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT'LL BRING INCREASING
PCPN CHANCES WITH IT, WHICH WILL FURTHER OFFER RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page