859
FXUS63 KPAH 162032
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE TO CHURN OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROF, SCT BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH MANY
PLACES WILL STAY RAINFREE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR,
THEY WILL TEND TO TRY AND ROTATE. THUS, A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO SPIN-
UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER THAN THAT, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. PLAN TO ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT.
TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT,
WEDNESDAY WILL SERVE AS MORE OF A TRANSITION DAY, AS A MASSIVE
HEAT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
DWINDLE WEDNESDAY, TEMPS WILL BEGIN AN UPSWING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL CHALLENGE OR EVEN TOP 90 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACES
ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL EVEN SEE HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO
105 DEGREES, WITH READINGS UP CLOSE TO 100 ELSEWHERE.
AS THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST CLOSER TO THE REGION
THURSDAY, THE HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. IN FACT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 FOR SEVERAL
AFTERNOONS IN A ROW LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, DECIDED AT THIS
POINT TO INITIATE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. I ALSO WEIGHED IN THE FACT
THAT THE HEAT WILL BE LASTING INTO WEEKEND ACTIVITIES. DEFINITELY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT AND STEAMY STRETCH OF DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
HAVE A CAPPING EFFECT, PRECLUDING PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND FOR THE PAH FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN THE OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS (MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS, HIGHS IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND THE GEFS/ECENS, FINER
DETAILS ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT BY EARLY MON, BUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
PHASE WITH A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW, ALLOWING BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE OVER OUR
REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ENABLE AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY MON, WHICH THE INITIALIZATION
BLEND SUPPORTS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL, AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES, SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MORE SO ON MON ACROSS A LARGER SECTOR OF THE
PAH FORECAST AREA. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE
SWEPT OUT OF OUR REGION (ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF), SO A SMALL
PROBABILITY OF ACTIVITY WAS MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO AND WESTERN KY TUE (DAY 7). AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING
SURFACE PRESSURE.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
ALTHOUGH CIGS FROM MVFR UP TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING CIGS AND VSBYS BACK DOWN, POSSIBLY WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT,
BUT VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ088-089-
092>094.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ086-087-100-
107>112-114.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>006.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GM
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