102  
FXUS63 KPAH 021250  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
750 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 750 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2020  
 
WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 AM. VISIBILITIES  
ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE MOST LOCATIONS TO ABOVE 1/4 MILE  
THRESHOLDS.  
 
AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2020  
 
A PERSISTENT ELONGATED VORTICITY ZONE OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL  
WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SSW OVER MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH LOWER  
CONFIDENCE CALL TODAY WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY  
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD EXIST OVER SEMO ESPECIALLY THE OZARKS REGION.  
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO SOUTHERN IL AND POSSIBLY WEST KY.  
AS DRIER AIR WORKS WEST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,  
EVEN LOWER CHANCES EXIST, GENERALLY FOR SEMO AND THE OZARK FOOTHILL  
REGION, MAINLY DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOUT  
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PATCHY DENSE FOG  
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST KY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2020  
 
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH A  
DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY  
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD.  
 
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY  
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES  
REGION. WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR IMMEDIATE  
AREA, THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HEAT OF THE  
DAY THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. CHANCES INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS  
DEW POINTS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, WE DID BUMP CHANCES DOWN  
FROM THE INITIALIZED BLEND, WHICH SEEMED OVERLY AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE  
PATTERN.  
 
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S EACH  
AFTERNOON, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 750 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2020  
 
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS  
TO VFR OR MVFR, WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS LIKELY. BEST CHANCE OF  
CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF A KCEY-KMVN LINE LATER THIS MORNING ON  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES SHIFTING WEST TONIGHT. WINDS  
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. WE MAY SEE SOME FOG AGAIN  
TONIGHT GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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