502  
FXUS63 KPAH 142334  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN  
ANOTHER STELLAR DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL  
CLOUDINESS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT  
AND INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN AN EVENTUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE  
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM  
AIR ADVECTION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING/LIFTING INTO  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND, AS  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL MEANDER IN OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH  
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST  
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,  
A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROF WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY.  
 
ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF  
THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THE GENERAL  
CONSENSUS IS WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL  
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH  
SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PAH  
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN  
HALF OF COUNTIES CLOSER THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  
 
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AND THE  
FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH, THEN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO  
EAST ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF. SHOWERS WILL  
BECOME LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER  
TROF PASSES BY, THE INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH  
OF THE SECOND TROF. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAIN DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP  
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DESPITE THE  
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GM  
SHORT TERM...CW  
LONG TERM...RST  
AVIATION...GM  
 
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