797
FXUS63 KPAH 261739
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
- THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW
TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
RADAR IS ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE QUAD STATE. A FRONT IS
NEARLY STALLED OUT FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE INCREASED FORCING
ALOFT AND BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH VERY HIGH PW'S IS LEADING TO
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE MARGINAL RISK,
CAN'T RULE OUT ANOTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS DECREASING THOUGH AND WIND SHEAR IS WEAK OVERALL.
THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO
AND AFTER 9Z TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY A 30-35
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONCE
AGAIN, HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE A CONCERN LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FRIDAY LOOKS MORE INTERESTING FOR
THE STRONG/SEVERE PERSPECTIVE. WHILE RAIN/STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS MODEST, THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WOULD ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY AID IN
INCREASED SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE
5% TORNADO IS STILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT BRINGING INCREASED ASCENT. RAIN AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY. SATURDAY CARRIES A MARGINAL RISK
FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO. ADDITIONAL RAIN FURTHER LEADS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS EVENT
PINPOINTING THE AREAS OF HIGHEST CONCERN IS DIFFICULT BUT REFS
AND HREF BOTH SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
SUNDAY BEGINS A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND MID TO UPPER 90S
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COMBINED WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110F ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
LIKELY BEYOND. A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
LIKELY BEEN NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO FIRE UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY OVER SEMO
MOVING NORTHEAST). CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL THE
TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS, THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
CIGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MVFR
POCKETS, SOME IFR POCKETS, AND LARGE VFR AREAS WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS TO THE CLOUD DECK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MODEST, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page