566
FXUS63 KPAH 181805
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED AREAS OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOW-LYING,
SHELTERED LOCATIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WARMING TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. NBM
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 37F ARE
ONLY 10-20% FOR MONDAY MORNING, COMPARED TO 60-100% FOR THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS DO LOOK TO BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT, SO
ISOLATED FROST IS POSSIBLE IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED COOL
SPOTS THAT ARE LOW-LYING AND SHELTERED. WILL MESSAGE THIS RISK
IN THE HWO AND FORECAST GRAPHICS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
TRANQUIL. INCREASING H5 RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WILL DRIVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS, THEY WILL TREND TO AROUND 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. STEADY E-SW WINDS AROUND 4-8 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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