645
FXUS63 KPAH 080651
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
151 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (RANGING FROM 30-80%) ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FLASH FLOODING THREAT THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM TODAY, SEVERE CHANCES
ARE QUITE LOW (LESS THAN 5%). PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS
HAVE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY, NOW UP TO 15%, FOCUSED ANYTIME
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN MAY
FAVOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES (5-15%) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) RETURN THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
100. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL
EXCEED 90 AGAIN BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS RESIDED OVER OUR AREA FOR DAYS WILL
LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY.
THUS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. VERY LIMITED FLOW TO WORK WITH THOUGH
SO SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW, JUST YOUR TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
INSTANCES AGAIN.
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING WILL BE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES SWEEPING ACROSS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FLOW ALOFT, PARTICULARLY 850-700MB,
WHICH WILL YIELD DEEP LAYER SHEAR PUSHING 25-35 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. BIT LESS CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAY, BUT AT
LEAST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE FLOW (20-25 KTS) MAY REMAIN IN PLACE.
AT THE SAME TIME, SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
USHERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS AS TEMPERATURES PUSH THE LOW 90S AGAIN
COUPLED WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 98 TO 103 AND PUSH MLCAPE VALUES OVER
2500J/KG. WHILE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VARIES AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE,
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS INCREASED TO
A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CERTAINLY
SEEMS JUSTIFIED. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST CONCERN,
WITH DCAPE VALUES PUSHING OVER 1200J/KG ON SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND MAYBE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY, WITH ML PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO SUGGEST
5-15% SEVERE PROBS FOR THOSE DAYS.
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WETTER FOR LATE WEEK, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO AN INCREASING FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WON'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE END UP NEEDING ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONSISTENTLY BE AT OR ABOVE 2" DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE
LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE MAINTAINS FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES (15-30%) FOR
RECEIVING OVER 2" THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SEVERAL OF THE CAMS AND
EVEN THE GFS ARE DEPICTING SWATHS OF 2-4" AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
HIGHER. WPC HAS US OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL FINALLY HELP DRY US OUT WITH
SEVERAL COMPLETELY DRY DAYS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR REACHING 90 AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY (50-70% VIA THE LREF),
THE BRUNT OF THIS HEATWAVE MAY END UP STAYING CENTERED TO OUR WEST.
SO FOR NOW, IT DOESN'T LOOK AS BRUTALLY HOT AS LAST WEEK WAS FOR OUR
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS WITH
VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 2-5SM RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH PROB30
MENTIONED FOR TSRA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
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