506
FXUS63 KPAH 201950
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (~80%) WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK IN TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE QUAD STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A NICE WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
12Z GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE 70 FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF 80 DEGREES READINGS THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THE ECENS
HAS A 50-80% CHANCE OF REACHING THE LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NBM APPEARS TO
FAVOR THE ECENS, SO WE HAVE LOWER 80S IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE AREA THURSDAY AND OVER WEST KENTUCKY FRIDAY.
THE SKINNY UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN IMPULSE PUSHING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE QUAD STATE, MAINLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GEFS HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK, SO A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN GENERAL WANTS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE FOR THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TO ROLL SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS NEXT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KMVN.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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