611
FXUS63 KPAH 242324
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PLEASANTLY COOL/DRY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND,
WITH MOSTLY 70S AND 50S SLATED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
- A WARMUP TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE 80S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS WHEN APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES LIKEWISE RETURN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
AN ALMOST REX-LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDS THRU THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE INFLUX LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLIES FOR THE BULK OF THAT PERIOD. SATELLITE AND
SOUNDING DATA SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE REINFORCENTS ON THE WAY,
CITED IN THE SOUNDINGS LOWER COLUMN UP TO ABOUT 5K (BNA) TO 7K
(ILN) FEET HOLDING FIRM, SO BINOVC MAY BE HARD TO MIX TO MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DURING THIS AT LEAST NEAR TERM PERIOD, AND SKY
CONDITION/TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT AS THE NBM HASN'T
BEEN EXCEPTIONAL WITH ITS CAPTURE. THIS PATTERN PERSISTENCE
WILL KEEP PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH 70S AND
50S PREDOMINANT FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP THAT ENSUES FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK, TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE 80S AND 60S FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS AS THE SURFACE INFLUX FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLIES
COINCIDENT WITH THE BLOCK BREAKING DOWN. DEVELOPING/APPROACHING
TROFFING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKEWISE RETURN PCPN CHANCES, THOUGH
IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO SPECULATE ON STRONG/SVR STORM
CHANCES...BUT THAT'S THE TIME TO LOOK FOR IT AS POPS START TO
RISE WITH THE BUILDING HEAT/HUMIDITY AND AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
ENTERING THE MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE FORECAST PICTURE. NOTED THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS ABOVE/ABOVE FOR TEMPS/PCPN, SO
PERHAPS ANOTHER PROLONGED DURATION WARMER PERIOD IS IN STORE IF
IT PANS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK
STUCK ACROSS OUR REGION. TEND TO THINK IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH BASES MAY REMAIN LOW VFR LEVELS MOST OF THE
TIME. NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION (KCGI/KMVN)
SEEM TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE ISN'T OVERLY HIGH, BUT
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MAY FINALLY ERODE AWAY TOMORROW,
BEING REPLACED BY BKN MID CLOUD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...SP
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