173
FXUS63 KPAH 192310
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND BY
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY FINALLY COOL CLOSER TO OR EVEN
A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WHERE THEY HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- THE COLD FRONT BRINGS 40-70% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN, BUT NOT BEFORE CONTINUED SWELTERING
AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
WILL RUN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS, AND COMBINE WITH DEWS
IN THE 60S TO OUTPUT PEAK DAILY HI'S RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY
MARK; THE ADVISORY WAS MAINTAINED DUE TO THE PROLONGED DURATION
HEAT OF THE WEEK, THRU THE WEEKEND, FOR A HEIGHTENED RISK OF
HEALTH RELATED IMPACTS WITH VIRTUALLY NO RELIEF FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT REALIZED ALL WEEK.
THE METAMORPHOSIS FROM OUR RECENT HEAT BLAST TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL READINGS WILL OCCUR THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT APPROACHES TOMORROW AND MAKES PASSAGE TOMORROW NIGHT-
MONDAY. A TRANSITION DAY MONDAY OCCURS AS THE AIRMASS IS
REPLACED, WITH MID 80S (NORTH) TO MID 90S (SOUTH), WHILE TEMPS
SETTLING AROUND NORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK MAY WELL SEE
MUCH OF US WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F DAILY OVER
ITS BACK HALF. THE PRICE TO PAY TO GET THERE WILL BE SOME MID
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY POPS THAT ACCOMPANY THE AIR MASS
REPLACEMENT, INCLUDING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE. DEW POINTS
MAKE AN ANALAGOUS FALL AS WELL, THRU THE 60S TO POTENTIALLY SOME
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F APPEARANCE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS ON TRACK TO SHIFT EVV TO
THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5-10 KT OR LESS.
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (VFR) ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG
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