786
FXUS63 KPAH 061122
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
522 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER
NEXT WEEK. 50S NEARLY GUARANTEED MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN RAIN CHANCES COME BACK
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS MESSY AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE
TO MODEL DISCREPANCY.
- THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY AID SNOWMELT PROCESSES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
WE'RE STILL IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. NBM SHOWS SEMO, THE
KY PURCHASE REGION, AND THE SOUTHERN KY PENNYRILE AT A GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE OF SEEING 50+ DEGREES TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY.
IT WILL BE COLDER AGAIN TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TURNS WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCES OF SEEING 40+ DEGREES IS ESSENTIALLY CONFINED
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SEMO. AS THIS SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY KICKING OFF A WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S.
MONDAY THOUGH, NBM HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AT A GREATER THAN 90%
CHANCE OF SEEING 50+ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE
WHICH HAS A 30-70% CHANCE OF 50+. MOST OF SEMO, THE PURCHASE REGION,
AND SOUTHERN PENNYRILE HAVE A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF SEEING 60+
ON MONDAY. TUESDAY IS EVEN BETTER WITH MAJORITY OF THE AREA AT A
GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF 60+ DEGREES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AGAIN, WHICH HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF 60+. WEST
OF POPLAR BLUFF EVEN HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF 70+! LOWS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE BOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM TROF MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING (40-
60%) AND THEN A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW NBM LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (15-25%),
BEYOND THAT MODEL DISCREPANCY KEEPS WEAK POPS (15-20%) THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES THEM AGAIN (20-30%) THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A MESSY TIME PERIOD THAT WILL
HOPEFULLY RESOLVE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT CGI THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. THIS AFTERNOON AN MVFR CLOUD DECK
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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