564
FXUS63 KPAH 051733
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE REGION SITS IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND BENIGN PATTERN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING OUT OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WORKING INTO
THE MID 70S AND RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP UPWARDS THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, LIKELY PUSHING ABOVE 80 EACH DAY BUT THE
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW SHOULD KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE.
THE TROPICS MAY PRODUCE THE NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER ELEMENT FOR THE
REGION. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A COMPILATION OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS SOMETHING MOVING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING THIS AREA
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE ACTUAL FINAL INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION OF
ANY SYSTEM THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON ANY
TRACK OR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM BRINGS, PARTICULARLY FOR THIS AREA.
30-40% RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HOLD THOSE WOULD BE ON TRACK TO INCREASE AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT FIELDS NEAR WARM
BODIES OF WATER (CGI). WIDESPREAD FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY.
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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