108
FXUS63 KPAH 211135
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-7PM.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE.
- UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS FROM THE ONTARIO WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND QUAD STATE TODAY. A
50 KNOT MID LEVEL JET ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
CAPE VALUES OF 4000+ J/KG. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXITS IN THE
CONVECTIVE MODE BUT DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
GIVEN THETA-E DIFFERENCES ABOVE 30 K AND VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO IF ANY BOUNDARY
CAN INTERACT WITH THIS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT OVERALL
THE POTENTIAL IS LOW. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH RUNOFF ON
ROADWAYS.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 110 TO 115 DEGREES. LOCATIONS ALONG
I-64 ARE ONLY UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY AS THE EARLIER TIMING OF
STORMS WILL HELP TO KEEP HEAT INDICES A BIT COOLER IN THE 105 TO
109 RANGE. ITS NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR IF CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR
OUT IN TIME WHICH MAY DELAY HEATING A BIT. SEVERAL MODELS DO
SHOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY LATE MORNING THOUGH WHICH WOULD
STILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT PAH TO CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPOS FOR TSRA RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE AT
PAH/OWB THIS AFTERNOON WITH PROB30S AT CGI/EVV. WINDS FROM THE
WEST WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT EVV/OWB. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075-080>082-
084>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ076>078.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR INZ085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>017-021-
022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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