088
FXUS63 KPAH 172302 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES,
AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF THE SEASON
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105F ARE FORECAST,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAT OF DAY SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING
OFFERING THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM STORM ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.
HIGHER RISK SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR TMRW, MOST SPECIFICALLY
FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO/THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION WITH ONSET TIMING AS A DECAYING MCS OR SIMILAR
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD COULD BE OVERTOPPING THE AREA
TMRW MORNING, SO WILL OFFER A PLAY INTO HOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALL THE CAMS SUGGEST THE REAL
FRONTAL DRIVEN CONVECTION HOLDS OFF TIL 21-24Z KNOCKING ON OUR
CWA DOORSTEP.
WHEN THE FRONT APPEARS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, IT
WILL BE TAPPING A DESTABILIZED AIR MASS OFFERING ANYWHERE FROM
ABOUT 2K UPWARDS TO ABOUT 3.5K J/KG MUCAPE, WITH LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING INTO THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE. SHEAR INCREASES TO 40+ KTS
SO ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE WITH THE INTRO OF THE FRONT AND
THE PARENT UPPER TROF SHARPENING ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR A
CONVECTIVE EVENT TO BREAK OUT WITH ALL HAZARDS POTENTIAL. STILL
HIGH PW'S KEEP HEAVY RAIN AS A HAZARD, STORMS WILL BE MOVING BUT
REPEAT STORMS MAY STILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESP
GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME POP MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM
CLEARS AND WE GO DRIER BUT ALSO WARMER UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF A BUILDING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY, WE COULD GET INTO SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR HEADLINE HEAT
POTENTIAL WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
HEALTH IMPACTS GROWS GIVEN PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
TONIGHT LOOKS VFR DESPITE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS TRYING TO STAY ABOVE CALM MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH AND MID CLOUD WORK IN FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DAYBREAK
HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE
STRONG/ORGANIZED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG
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