199  
FXUS63 KPAH 222314  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
514 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
 
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. UP TO A TENTH  
OF AN INCH OF ICING AND A HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE  
OZARK FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL LIKELY START AS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR  
SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN  
TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION REALLY SETS  
IN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY  
AREA EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ALONG AND WEST OF I-57 IN  
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOME VERY MINOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIDGE  
BRIEFLY TRYING TO FREEZE UP IN THAT AREA, MAINLY OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT, BUT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM  
ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY PROBLEMS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED. WILL  
CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS AREA IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  
 
FARTHER EAST, A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL  
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL  
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY  
SHIFT EASTWARD, COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
 
WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO PASS BY JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION,  
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY STAY TO  
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING  
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT FOR NOW WE DO NOT HAVE  
ANY QPF IN THAT AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
 
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK, SATURDAY IS LOOKING FAIRLY  
TRANQUIL AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES MOVING EAST AND ENDS UP IN  
OHIO BY 12Z (SATURDAY). THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST  
CHANCES FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE  
TRI STATE REGION. HOWEVER, CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH, SO  
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ONLY. LOTS OF  
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN CLOUDS WILL BE VERY  
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON  
SATURDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE  
IN AIR MASS EXPECTED.  
 
MODELS ARE ANALYZING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THAT COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW QPF LOOKS MEAGER ENOUGH TO LEAVE IT OUT  
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN ITS  
PLACEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DATA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE  
WARM ENOUGH THAT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID,  
AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO  
WATCH THOUGH.  
 
AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE A LARGE UPPER  
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD  
CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON  
TUESDAY, AS DEEP SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP DURING  
THIS PERIOD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION NOW IS WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR  
THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PRESSING  
EASTWARD AND WILL IMPACT SOMETIME IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. RIGHT  
NOW THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN WE MIGHT  
SEE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD  
SUGGEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE  
CHANCE POPS THAT THE NBM PROVIDED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD  
WHERE POPS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BUT THAT WILL COME AS CONFIDENCE AND  
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT DOES APPEAR  
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
 
A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS ABOVE 10K FEET WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT,  
WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS AFTER  
06Z. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE  
KCGI/KMVN AREAS, BUT VSBYS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR TONIGHT.  
IMPACTS TO RUNWAY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
ON THURSDAY, RAIN AND FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN S ILLINOIS  
AND SE MISSOURI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN THE KMVN  
AREA IN THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAINY, WITH  
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO ARRIVE AROUND 00Z FROM KPAH TO KMVN WEST, AND THIS WILL BE  
REFLECTED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST  
THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-100-107>109.  
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DRS  
LONG TERM...CW  
AVIATION...MY  
 
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