530
FXUS63 KPAH 171837
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1237 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE WEEKEND BLASTS OF COLD AIR WILL MAKE JANUARY FEEL
LIKE...JANUARY! LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE PASSES, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COLD. WIND
CHILLS WILL RUN SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF US EACH MORNING
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING THRU THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
- NEXT BEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMES MIDDLE-LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK, AFTER A BRIEF MID WEEK WARMUP AND FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD BLAST THAT HEADS US INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY SUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCE WILL HOLD OR BE IMPACTFUL, BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
CHANNEL-WISE VORTICITY ROTATES THRU THE PRIMARY LONG WAVE TROF
AXIS AS IT MAKES ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN, SPOTTY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO
MOISTURE STARVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT LEAST, THAT LITTLE MORE
THAN A DUSTING HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED, IF THAT. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DRAWN
IN, WITH LOWS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS TONIGHT. THIS IS A
BEGINNING SIGNAL REMINDER THAT WE ARE IN JANUARY, AND THAT
JANUARY COLD IS GOING TO STICK AROUND AWHILE. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THRU THE GREAT LAKES TMRW, AND IT DOES
MOST OF ITS DAMAGE UP THERE, BUT CONTINUES THE COLD AIR FUNNEL
DOWN HERE; MAYBE WE GET SOME FLURRIES WITH ITS ACTION, BUT IT'S
A DRY COLUMN IT ENCOUNTERS, EVEN WITH SOME TEMPORARY
SOUTHWESTERLIES SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE. AGAIN THE MAIN IMPACT
IS THE REINFORCING COLD, WITH HIGHS STRUGGING TO REACH TOWARD
THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY, AND NIGHTLY LOWS
AGAIN IN THE TEENS. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ENTER THE IMPACTS
PICTURE FOR THE START OF THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK. THE NORTH MAY
JUST FLIRT WITH SOME NEGATIVE DIGITS EVEN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
STAYS JUST WARMER THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA.
THE COLD BLOCK DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INTO THE MID
WEEK. MONDAY IS COLDEST, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS! MONDAY NIGHT MIGHT SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN OUR
NORTH, BUT WINDS DIMINISH SO WIND CHILLS WON'T BE ANY MORE OF A
CAUSE OF CONCERN THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
CHILLS REMAINING THE MAIN THEME FOR THE WORK/SCHOOL DAY STARTS.
BY WEDNESDAY, AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL HELP HIGHS REACH
INTO/THRU THE 40S. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM'S PCPN
CHANCES IN THE LIQUID RANGE MOSTLY, WITH CHANGE-OVER PCPN
LIGHT/SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH ALARM AT THIS WRITING;
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THOUGH AS FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSITIONING/TIMING COULD GREATLY IMPACT SAID CHANCES. AND THIS
FROPA OFFERS ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD THAT FINISHES OUT OUR WEEK
AND TAKES US INTO THE WEEKEND RUNNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOT FOR WINTRY PCPN. THE LATEST 6-10/8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST MORE OF THE SAME, SO THE BACK HALF OF
JANUARY LOOKS LIKE A COLD ONE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTED BASES IS NOT ZERO, BUT IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE FROM MENTION THUS FAR. LOWER VFR CIGS ARE
PREDOMINANT AND PREVAILING IN PLAY FOR NOW, BUT KMVN COULD SEE
TEMPORARY LOWER/RESTRICTED BASES SCT-BKN AT TIMES. SIMILARLY,
WHILE CHANNELED VORTICITY SPAWNS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY,
CHANCES ARE THUS FAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION, BUT AN ISOLATED
POCKET OF VSBY RESTRICTING -SHSN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BASES WILL ULTIMATELY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY TROF
AXIS RESPONSIBLE FULLY COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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