805
FXUS63 KPAH 260753
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT TODAY; AN
ADVISORY CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON, IL TO MURRAY KY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY-TOMORROW (SUNDAY-MONDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE CAMS MODEL THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO TOP THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE
AND THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE PAH FA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS VARIANCE AMONGST THE HREF MEMBERS ON WHETHER IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO IMPACT US (HRRR/ARW) OR NOT
(NSSL/FV3). THEIR TIMING SUGGESTS BY MID MORNING IF IT HOLDS,
OTHERWISE, ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAY-OUT WILL ALLOW FOR PM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. EITHER WAY, THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT OUR MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
MAINLY, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, WHICH SPC PEGS AT 5%.
ANOTHER SOUTHWARD DIVE OF ENERGY IS ANTICIPATED ON DAY-2
(MONDAY), THOUGH THE ENERGY TRAIN DISPLACES ITS AXIS FURTHER
EAST WITH TIME. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT OUR MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL, WHICH AGAIN SPC PEGS AT 5%, OVER OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.
HEADLINE HEAT ONSETS TODAY AND CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY FOR
ANTICIPATED HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 112 DEGREES. WE'VE
UPGRADED OUR EXISTING ADVISORY TO A WARNING, AND EXPANDED SAID
ADVISORY FURTHER TO OUR EAST,
WE'LL RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLICALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
BASES/CIGS AND VSBYS ARE RESTRICTING WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT IT'S GENERALLY SPORADIC. OTHERWISE, TIMING
THE UPSTREAM CNVECTION SUGGESTS A MID MORNING APPEARANCE HERE,
IF IT CAN HOLD UP. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND ACTIVATION
UPON THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS STORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER IN THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-091.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ001>009.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ001>009.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ010>022.
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