630
FXUS63 KPAH 262245
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A 60-80% OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THIS MORNING'S LIGHT RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION, AND A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FILTER DRY NE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO
CALM TONIGHT, AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT
SAW APPRECIABLE RAIN THIS MORNING, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO 20-35%, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. WILL INTRODUCE
MESSAGING FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER HERE IN THE HWO AND SOCIAL
MEDIA PRODUCTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA ON
SATURDAY, SO MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FIRE DANGER MESSAGING BEYOND
FRIDAY WITH LATER FORECAST UPDATES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL SOAR 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE MO/AR AND KY/TN
BORDER. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG
NORTH- SOUTH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE
I-64 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
THERMAL PROFILES HERE WOULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO A LIGHT/SLUSHY SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING (ROUGHLY
06-12Z). AT THIS TIME, ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A TRACE TO A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ON ELEVATED SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY, WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ACCUMULATION ON ROADS AND
BRIDGES, SO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON, AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS FORECAST BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AT LEAST.
THE CULPRIT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE A BROADLY
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
SURFACE INFLECTIONS TO INITIATE PERIODS OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME,
THE PERIODS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE FAIRLY MODEST, BUT WILL
ADDED OVER TIME, WHICH WILL AMELIORATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS A BIT. THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES A
60-80% OF THE REGION SEEING MORE THAN 0.50" BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND A 25-50% OF 1 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REBOUND AS WELL DURING THIS TIME, CLIMBING FROM NEAR NORMAL
VALUES ON MONDAY- TUESDAY TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THAT EVEN
POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEEK BEYOND THE
END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WINDOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AS A WEAK WAVE MAKES PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ACROSS THE FLIGHT FORECAST AREA AND ASSERTS CONTROL OF OUR
SENSIBLE WX THRU THE BULK OF THIS PACKAGE. TDD'S DROP TO 3F OR
LESS WITH LITTLE SKY COVER/LIGHT-CALM WINDS, SO WE'VE RETAINED
OUR INHERITED RESTRICTIONS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW AM. SOUTHERLIES INITIATE TMRW BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT, WHILE FEW DIURNAL VFR BASES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page