053
FXUS63 KPAH 060441
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1041 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
- A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- A BRIEF, BUT BITTER, ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 40 DEGREES IN
SOME SPOTS.
- WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10-20F ARE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING, AND
15-25F READINGS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO N TO NW
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS, AS EVEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE VERY LITTLE. S TO SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A
QUICK-MOVING NEUTRAL-TILT H5 TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEST KY FOR FRIDAY, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE,
THINKING THIS MAYBE OVERDONE, DESPITE AN UPTICK IN SBCAPE VALUES
TO 250-500 J/KG IN WEST KY. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID
IN CI AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH THE BETTER SETUP FOR THIS NOW
FORECAST TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
AND MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHERN KY INSTEAD. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW
THE SETUP EVOLVES IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT RIGHT NOW THE
CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW END AT THIS TIME.
H5 RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY, BRINGING ONE LAST MILD
AND PLEASANT DAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR
(LITERALLY, THE ORIGINS OF THIS AIR MASS LOOK TO BE IN THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA) WILL ESCAPE CONTAINMENT AND
FLOW SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, BY FAR. THE CONTRAST IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN SATURDAY (HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S)
AND SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S) WILL BE VERY
STARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A HARD
FREEZE, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND
CHILL VALUES MONDAY MORNING OF 10-15F ARE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OF THE AREA, AND SOME PLACES IN
THE EVV TRI-STATE MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S. IN FACT, DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR SOUTH LAKE-EFFECT CLOUD COVER REACHES, SOME PLACES
HERE MAY EVEN SEE FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON! TUESDAY MORNING
WILL AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 15-25F EXPECTED. THIS CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE IN TIME FOR VETERANS DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS VEER FROM E TO SE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. HIGH CIRRUS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH
LLWS THAT WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
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