416
FXUS63 KPAH 111010
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR 110 DEGREES.
THE HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE RELIEF NOW EXPECTED.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN BY THIS EVENING, PEAKING AT A
40-50% CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
WHILE THE SOUTH MAY SEE NO RAINFALL AT ALL.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A WARM
SECTOR REGIME PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND DEWPOINTS THAT ARE ONCE AGAIN OVERACHIEVING IN THE 70S WILL
YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR 110 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT OVER THE FA ON FRIDAY. LITTLE RELIEF IS NOW
EXPECTED THAT YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 100 DEGREES
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH A 597 DM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
FA FROM THE SOUTH. THE HEIGHT RISES FALL WELL IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
ON THE NAEFS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO 25C.
DESPITE THE TREND FOR A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, MULTIPLE H5
SHORTWAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO ROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THAT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES IN THE VICINITY BEGINNING TODAY.
THE NSSL/NAMNEST TRY TO BRING IN A MCS AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING, BUT
MOST OF THE CAMS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION
CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. IN
FACT, WEDNESDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUE TO
BE WHEN THE RISK IS THE GREATEST FOR A POTENTIAL MCS COMPLEX WITH
NBM POPS MAXING OUT AROUND A 40-50%. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY IS NON-
ZERO FOR SOMETHING ELSE TO SNEAK IN OUTSIDE THIS WINDOW AT SOME
POINT.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
MLCAPE EACH DAY IS PROGGED AROUND 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY THE
RAP13. COMBINED WITH STEEP 8-9 C/KM SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES AND
DCAPE UPWARDS OF 1400 J/KG, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A 120 KT JET MAX, THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAKE UP THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE
PROFILE. IT IS WORTH NOTING WHILE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA
MAY SEE HEAVY RAINFALL, THE SOUTH MAY SEE NO RAINFALL AT ALL.
LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE
SUPPRESSES ADDITIONAL CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH FEW CU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL
DEVELOPING AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING. SSW WINDS BETWEEN 8-14
KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THERE IS A PROB30 AT KEVV/KOWB FOR TONIGHT
AS IT IS A CLOSE CALL IF STORMS WILL REACH SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
WINDS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE SOUTH BETWEEN 4-7 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-081>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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