397
FXUS63 KPAH 300001
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
701 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL INCREASE
AS HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ANYTIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS. ALSO, LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2" MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY RISE ABOVE 90 BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
WAVE IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SLIDING EAST FROM
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY WHERE SOME INSTABILITY RESIDES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND/OR MAKE MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. THE BEST FORCING DOESN'T
REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AFTER 02-03Z. THIS
IS WHEN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING 250MB JET. SO SHOULD SEE A NOTABLE UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
BETWEEN 02-06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA, BEFORE LARGELY EXITING THE REGION BEFORE 12Z.
THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT LOOKS QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. INSTABILITY LIKELY STRUGGLES TO
REACH 1000 J/KG AND EVEN THAT IS CONFINED TO NEAR THE AR/TN BORDERS.
MEANWHILE, THE BEST LIFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WHICH IS ALSO WHEN THE DEEP LAYER (40-45 KTS) AND LOW LEVEL (20 KTS)
SHEAR RAMPS UP AFTER 05Z. SO WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER BETWEEN 21-02Z, A SLIGHTLY GREATER
THREAT MAY ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER BETWEEN 05-
10Z. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR, LIMITING THE HAIL THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLY ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN, BUT AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY THERE IS A LOW END TORNADO
THREAT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SWATHS OF 1.5 TO 2" THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LARGELY DRY WITH THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
OUR EAST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE DIPS
SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WAVE, WE
COULD SEE A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME SHOWERS AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH THAT POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN
HIGHS JUMPING FROM THE LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO RISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 90 BY MID WEEK.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS
OUR CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. CSU-MLP PROGS SHOW SOME
LOW END SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE THE START OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE JUNE 5-10 PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
RAIN AND FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS
MAY BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY TO THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA IS STILL LOW GIVEN LOWER INSTABILITY. A REDUCTION IN CIGS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR RETURNING. WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KNOTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
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