157
FXUS63 KPAH 161620
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1120 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONDITION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A ROBUST FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RENEWED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
OUR FIRST POTENT FALL STORM SYSTEM OF THE SEASON WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN BY A RATHER DEEP
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A NEUTRAL TILT PASS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD. AT
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN
OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S (APPROACHING
RECORD LEVELS). THERE MAY BE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE FIRST
ROUND COULD BE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY, TRIGGERED
BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A SECOND, MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS, NOW ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH SOAKING RAIN LEVELS OF 0.75-1.50" AMOUNTS THANKS TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE, A POTENT DISTURBANCE, AND
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF POSSIBLE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FEW
REASONS. FIRST, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY
HINTING THERE MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT EML OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND STORM
COVERAGE. SECOND, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND HOW MUCH LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT, TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK, WHICH COULD HELP OVERCOME THE EML CAPPING. THERE ARE
SIMILAR ISSUES WITH LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. IT'S POSSIBLE THE
INGREDIENTS JUST DO NOT COME TOGETHER IN THE RIGHT TIME AND
LOCATION TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
IF THE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS COULD BE MORE DISCREET, WITH
MODEST WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADO THREATS. THE SECOND WIDESPREAD
ROUND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A MCS OR SQUALL LINE,
AGAIN WITH LOW- LEVEL WIND AND SPIN-UP TORNADO THREATS. IT MUST
BE STRESSED THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WIDE ENVELOP
OF SOLUTIONS ON THE TABLE, AND THINGS SHOULD BECOME A BIT
CLEARER IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHORT RETURN OF QUIET AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. POPS REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD DUE TO WIDE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE, BUT MAY TREND
UPWARD IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM AND FOG
AND GROUND FOG ARE EXPECTED AT CGI AND POSSIBLY PAH. ANOTHER
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND AND VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...JGG
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