068
FXUS63 KPAH 031128
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD (AND POSSIBLY BEYOND). THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE OF SEEING 70+ DEGREES TODAY SOUTH OF I-64. FRIDAY HAS A
50- 65% CHANCE OF SEEING 80+ OVER WEST KY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BRING NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR 3+" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, HAVE
TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30-60% WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE TO EVANSVILLE.
- A COUPLE OF DAYS COULD SEE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL, RIGHT NOW
WEDNESDAY IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY COULD ALSO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS
BASED ON THE BROAD 5% AREA FROM THE CSU MLP (NOT OUTLOOKED YET
FROM SPC).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING US MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST 70 DEGREES
TODAY SOUTH OF I-64. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
DURING THE DAY FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THERE IS A 40-80%
CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND A 30-60% CHANCE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (FOCUSED NORTH). THERE IS A
GREATER THAN 40% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN NORTH OF
A LINE FROM CARBONDALE, IL TO EVANSVILLE, IN.
WEDNESDAY WE TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WARM (GENERALLY IN THE 70S) INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A ROUGHLY 50-90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORM (GREATEST
NORTH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-50 KTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPC'S
MARGINAL RISK MAKES SENSE.
FRIDAY MIGHT SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME LOW 80S BEING POSSIBLE (50-65% CHANCE
MAINLY OVER WEST KY). THERE COULD BE SOME RECORD HIGHS, PARTICULARLY
FOR PADUCAH AND CARBONDALE. PADUCAH'S RECORD IS 77 FROM 1994 (COULD
SEE 80), AND CARBONDALE'S IS 77 FROM 2009 (COULD SEE 79). SATURDAY'S
STORMS MIGHT POSE ANOTHER SEVER WEATHER THREAT. THE CSU MLP HAS A
BROAD 5% AREA BUT THE 15% AREA IS NOT FAR AWAY. PRECIP WISE, THE
LREF HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE CHANCES FOR 3+ INCHES OF RAIN TO
NOW BEING 30-60% BY MARCH 12TH. THIS IS HIGHEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CARBONDALE TO EVANSVILLE. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIEFLY COOLER IN THE 60S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND A PARTIALLY IFR CLOUD DECK THAT IS NOT
WELL MODELED CURRENTLY. MOST SITES HAVE A VFR CLOUD DECK AROUND
6K FEET BUT HAVE MVFR VSBYS WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND. THE
VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE COMING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AS
FOR THE CLOUD DECK, IT IS POORLY MODELED CURRENTLY BUT THINKING
IT WILL STAY VFR EXCEPT FOR AT MVN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS (MVN AND EVV)
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN
THE ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AT AROUND 7-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL THEN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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