455
FXUS63 KPAH 170437 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
THROUGH SUNSET. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
-AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.
-ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED (40-80%) THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN WEST KY INTO
SOUTHEAST MO. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
WEST KENTUCKY.
-DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE QUAD STATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
BETTER INSTABILITY OVER SEMO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 35--40KTS IN
THAT AREA AS WELL. ANY STORMS WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG, WITH A 30 YR RETURN INTERVAL. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUST CLOSE TO 45 MPH. AT A MINIMUM A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING FROM THE 50S
TODAY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD BE THE REMNANTS OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF I-64.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO PASS THROUGH, LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY POSE YET ANOTHER
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE STORMS RE-DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY AND BECOME QUITE
STRONG BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
CONVECTION MAY START TO BECOME A THREAT FROM THE NORTH BY LATE
TOMORROW EVENING AT THE MORE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page