494
FXUS63 KPAH 111757
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT, PRIMARILY EXITING OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SOUPY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MAY LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH INCLUDES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID. THERE IS A
70-90% CHANCE AT DEW POINTS REMAINING BELOW 60 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY! THIS APPEARS SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG.
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING AND DECREASING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE LINE PUSHES IN. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LINE
OVERALL WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT THE LINE SHOULD BE
MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLOOD RISK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN PROVIDING NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION AIDING IN
SHOWERS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TRENDS, SOME STRONG STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGH PW'S WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES DRIER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
LREF CONTINUE TO PAINT 70-90% CHANCES OF DEWPOINTS BELOW 60
DEGREES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH COULD OFFER
LOW END RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT AT
THIS TIME THE FORECAST IS DRY INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD WITH BASES UP TO 5 KFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. RESTRICTIONS IN CIG/VISB CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 10-12Z WITH
VFR REMAINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075-081-
085.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ100.
IN...NONE.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ007>009-
011-012.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page