400
FXUS63 KPAH 292203
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO END THE WEEK.
- RAIN SHOWERS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AT
A 80-90% CHANCE ON FRIDAY WHEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S MAKE A
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NEXT MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
ALLOWING FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. GIVEN WAA ALOFT AT
850 MB AND ROBUST MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S TODAY AS IT IS LIKELY TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERACHIEVE. THE NBM HAS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THE DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN THAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 40S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25-30%, WITH SIMILAR VALUES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE EAST, MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY RETURN TO
THE 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, OUR WARM UP WILL PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE FINAL TIME FOR THIS YEAR. NBM CONTINUES TO
TREND WARMER AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATER. POPS NOW PEAK AT A 80-90% CHANCE ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRANSITIONS INTO A
ELONGATED WAVE ACROSS THE FA. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MEAGER,
SO WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT TRANSIENT RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT MOST.
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY EJECTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DAKOTAS AND PUSHES THE
DISTURBANCE MORE EASTWARD. TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE NBM CONTINUES
TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH ONLY A 40-50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
ONE INCH. DUE TO INTERVALS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE FALL
AGAIN AS A 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NEXT
MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH A STILL HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATED FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP A
LITTLE AGAIN TMRW AND FEW-SCT HIGH-BASED CU WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE IN THE PLANNING PHASE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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