389
FXUS63 KPAH 142322
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH READINGS MODERATING BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY.
- SMALL CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WHILE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (70-80%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
- PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GIVE OUR REGION COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY TODAY, WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THESE MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME VERY BREEZY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOUTH WINDS AT 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35MPH ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A WEAKENING
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO OUR REGION AND WASHING OUT. MUCH
BETTER CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA
(FA) WITH THE LIFTING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND THE SUBSEQUENT
APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. 20-30%
CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INCREASING TO
40% SOUTH TO 85% NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES WILL
PEAK AT 70-90% THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOTALS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SPC INCLUDES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA
IN A DAY 4 SEVERE 15% PROBABILITY. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT, THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 20-40% CHANCE IN THE SATURDAY
NIGHT TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME,
SO FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
RISING CLOUD HEIGHTS HAS RESULTED IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE,
EXPECTEDLY TO REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND ONLY RISE TO 5 KTS
TOMORROW. SOME AFTERNOON LOW END VFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...ATL
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