599
FXUS63 KPAH 281854
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60%-90%) THAT A LATE SEASON HEATWAVE WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK QUITE BALMY, REMAINING IN
THE MID 70S BY MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY THREATEN SOME RECORD
WARM LOWS. HEAT HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LIMITED
RAINFALL PROSPECTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A VERY STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE LACK OF STRONG
SURFACE FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND (IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70). TRANSPIRATION WILL BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL WITH HARVEST RAMPING
UP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S! THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
95 DEGREE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THAT INCREASES TO A 70-90% CHANCE
BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 100-105 DEGREES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100 REACHING THE 50-70% RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. MAJOR
TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS WILL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS AND PROLONGED HEAT EVENT FOR THE AREA WITH
SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCE OVER THE SUMMER. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, MULTIPLE RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD BE OBSERVED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE MID 70S!!
NO MAJOR COOL DOWNS ARE IN SIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET WITH BASES
OF 4-6KFT. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR WITH MAINLY CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG, MOST
LIKELY AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES (CGI/MVN/PAH). CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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