188
FXUS63 KPAH 242322
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021
UPDATE IS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF'S. ALSO, IN OUR PUBLIC PRODUCTS, WE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. WE SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ELEVATED
LI'S LIFTING PARCELS FROM H8/H7, ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6
C/KM. ALSO SEE ELEVATED INSTANTANEOUS FLASH RATES IN THE ECMWF
DATA, AND HRRR LIGHTNING DENSITY PROG DATA. THERE MAY NOT BE TOO
MUCH TO IT, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
VIGOROUS MID TROP S/WV.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, AND A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL, SOUTHWESTERN IN, AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PENNYRILE REGION OF KY, MAINLY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND MID-MORNING FRI. AREAS NORTH OF I-64 WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS (AS HIGH AS LIKELY). THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY AROUND NOON EVERYWHERE AS SKIES RAPIDLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUN, WHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 10-15 MPH SUN FOR US, PERSISTING SUN NIGHT,
BUT SETTLING DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH.
MEANWHILE, THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMUP WILL CONTINUE UNDER
AMPLE DAYTIME SUNSHINE, ALBEIT WITH A BRIEF PAUSE BECAUSE OF THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE BY SUN AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER HALF
OF THE 50S IN GENERAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021
ENSEMBLE MODELING SUGGESTS A WARM/DRY LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. CIPS ANALOG DATA STILL STRONGLY PAINTS A DRY/BELOW NORMAL
PCPN PERIOD, AND EVEN THE EXPERIMENTAL CPC OUTPUT INDICATES THIS
COULD STRETCH EVEN LONGER, FOR A PROLONGED DRY SPELL PERHAPS
MEASURED IN WEEK(S).
THAT SAID, THE MID WEEK PERIOD DOES OFFER A POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL,
AT LEAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WORKS
NORTHWARD FROM ITS LOWER VALLEY. IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE HOLDING RIDGE JUST TO ITS EAST, AND FOR NOW, IT LOOKS TO HOLD
STRONG AND EVEN BACKBUILDS AGAIN, SO OUR ACCEPTED BLENDED POPS ARE
MINIMAL, AND RESTRICTED TO THE SEMO OZARKS, BUT STILL AUDIBLY
PRESENT.
THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE AND SUCCEEDING DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WILL
HELP TEMPS RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BEST CHANCES EAST OF
THE MS RIVER AND ESPECIALLY SE IL, SW IN AND NW KY. CIGS WILL
LOWER BUT BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE FRONT. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
STILL LOWER THAN AVERAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SSW 4
TO 8 KTS, SWITCHING TO THE N/NW 5 TO 10 KTS MORNING TO MIDDAY
SATURDAY. NOW THROUGH 06 UTC, QUIET WEATHER WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...08
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...08
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