826
FXUS63 KPAH 141120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM (20-40% CHANCE) MAY
LINGER TODAY BEFORE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND FAR LESS HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING BELOW 60 DEGREES. A MID-WEEK WARM UP USHERS
IN HIGHER HUMIDITY BEFORE ANOTHER BREAK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK.
- MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY (40-50% CHANCE) AT RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 3" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE INTO THE TN VALLEY TODAY. THE MCS OUT TO OUR WEST WILL BE
MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SO ANTICIPATE A WEAKENING
TREND AND FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY SLIDE SOUTH OF US INTO
ARKANSAS. HAVING SAID THAT WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT PRIMARILY
SHOULD JUST BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEAL WITH.
COULD STILL SEE SOME SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI GIVEN
HIGH PWAT VALUES, BUT LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
FLOODING LIKELY WILL STAY SOUTHWEST OF US AS WELL. AFTER THE MORNING
WAVE MOVES OUT WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SECOND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE 50S IN OUR
NORTHWEST.
EARLY WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AMAZING BY JUNE STANDARDS, AS DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.
A MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE CHANCES ON DAY 4 (WEDNESDAY), IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO
SEE OUR MAIN THREAT SHIFTED MORE TOWARDS THURSDAY. TIMING ON
WEDNESDAY WOULD BE MORE OVERNIGHT RIGHT NOW AND THURSDAY MAY OFFER
UP A BETTER OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE (ASSUMING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
DOESN'T LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND IMPACT THE INSTABILITY). STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT THROUGH THE DETAILS. IT LOOKS LIKE LATE WEEK
MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR (HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW 80S) ALONG
WITH SOME LOWER HUMIDITY. WE MAY GET TWO DRY DAYS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE ENSEMBLES HINT AT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
RETURNING NEXT SUNDAY. LREF CONTINUES TO PAINT PRETTY HIGH
PROBABILITIES (40-50% CHANCE) AT RECEIVING AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THERE IS ALSO NO SIGN OF 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS LIKELY
ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SHRA OVER SOUTHEAST MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIZZLE OUT AS IT
TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE HAD SOME BOUTS
OF IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE A GENERAL TREND
TOWARDS MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS BY MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONE FINAL BATCH OF
SHRA IS POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP AROUND 20 KTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING AND
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page