624
FXUS63 KPAH 221115
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
615 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 25 TO 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
- A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- A DAILY 15 TO 25% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR TYPICAL LATE
AUGUST VALUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONG H5 RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH INCREASING
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WHILE ON A WEAKENING TREND, THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BOOSTING FORECAST CAPE
VALUES TO 2500-3500 J/KG, ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1400
J/KG. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
(AROUND 30 KTS IN THE 00-06 KM LAYER), THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA, BRINGING A RETURN OF
QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME NW AS THE AREA
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND NORTHEAST
TROUGH. AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PREDICTABILITY IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN THESE SETUPS, SO TIMING OUT
THE PRECISE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS IS DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE.
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR TYPICAL LATE
AUGUST VALUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AS LINGERING SHALLOW FOG AT CGI AND PAH MIXES AWAY, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY. RIGHT NOW,
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA
TO OWB AND PAH, BUT THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN THE NEXT TAF
PACKAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N TO NW AROUND 6-12 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT OWB AND EVV.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 4-8KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...AZ/DWS
DISCUSSION...AZ/DWS
AVIATION...AZ/DWS
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