279
FXUS63 KPAH 151137
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG A WARM FRONT AND
NEAR AN APPROACHING LOW, THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
MAIN CONCERN.
- SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGHS/LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE
AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. FROST IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FOG WILL BE THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THAT SEEMS TO
BE PREVENTING PARTS OF THE AREA FROM REALLY DROPPING, BUT SOUTH
OF THAT WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER AND RAIN FELL TODAY VISIBILITIES
ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. 00Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING AND THE AVAILABLE
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE
LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET OF THE COLUMN. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ABOUT AN HOUR AGO AND WILL BE
WATCHING OTHER AREAS TO SEE IF THE STRATUS CLEARS OUT ENOUGH TO
GET DENSE FOG AT THE SURFACE.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT GENERATES WARM
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA STARTING AROUND DAWN WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
OVER SEMO AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE MORNING WITH THIS
PARTICULAR ACTIVITY. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE MAIN SURFACE COLD
FRONT STARTS TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE AREA - INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MODEST OVERALL WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT PWAT VALUES REMAIN UP ABOVE 1.8 INCHES SO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES APPEAR LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO GET GOING.
RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTHWEST THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR THIS MAY
BE JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR WIND/HAIL OR ISOLATED TORNADO ACTIVITY BASED ON THE
PROJECTED SHEAR/INSTABILITY/HODOGRAPH SHAPE.
AFTER THAT CONDITIONS GET PRETTY PUMPKIN-SPICED WITH HIGHS
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE 60 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AMID A
NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS TODAY TO
BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN PROJECTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT APPEAR
HEADED FOR THE 30S. CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO BE A FACTOR.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY AND CONDITIONS START TO
MODERATE WITH DRY AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE A FACTOR AT SEVERAL AIRFIELDS
THIS AM. AN IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST LOW MVFR IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE PREVAILING SIDE. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MVN/EVV/OWB WITH AT
LEAST BRIEF IFR VISBY THROUGH 14 OR 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BREAK INTO A TENUOUS VFR THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO START
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES THIS EVENING
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 15 TO 20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ076>078-
081>083-085>087-089>091-094.
MO...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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