486  
FXUS63 KPAH 042035  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
ANOTHER COOL MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND  
HIGHER RH ABOVE 400MB. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING 1024MB RIDGE IS  
CENTERED CLOSE BY AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. A POCKET OF  
LIGHT RAIN IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH  
OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.  
 
TOMORROW LOWER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR  
SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS BEGINS PULLING A FRONT  
ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE REGION. 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION  
GENERATES LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.  
RAIN CHANCES ARE PRETTY GOOD BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT  
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES  
THOROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES  
PERSISTING. STILL THINKING FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS THOUGH WITH  
WIDESPREAD, BUT WEAK, LIFT AVAILABLE. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD  
REMAIN MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IS PROJECTED BY NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO CLEAR THE  
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT AND MAXES TUESDAY ARE  
CURRENTLY PROGGED IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
TUESDAY TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BEGINS TO ADVANCE TO THE  
EAST, WHICH INCREASES WESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHTENS UP THE THERMAL  
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT A BIT. THIS INCREASED GRADIENT PROVIDES  
INCREASED FOCUS FOR LIFT. THE ADDED HEAT/MOISTURE FROM THE WARM  
FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVE US A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS  
WELL, SO A BETTER CHANCE OVERALL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT  
PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL  
BEHAVIOR/POSITION WHICH IS HARD TO PIN DOWN IN MOSTLY PARALLEL  
FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DANCING THE FRONTAL POSITION NORTH TO  
SOUTH AND BACK NORTH AGAIN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MORE OF THAT  
IS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALTER THE POSITION  
OF THE MOSTLY SYNOPTICALLY STALLED FRONT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
THE ACTIVE, MOSTLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN  
CONUS INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE OUT  
OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WED, BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER PATTERN  
SHIFTING AND BEGINNING TO BRING MOISTURE OVER A SURFACE BOUNDARY  
JUST TO OUR SOUTH, POPS WILL NOT DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY. THE HIGHEST  
POPS WILL BE NEAR THE AR/TN LINES, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED  
TSTMS. MEANWHILE, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATED THE MID AND  
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP A MOIST FETCH RIGHT INTO OUR REGION  
WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A SOURCE.  
 
IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN  
CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW,  
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION WED  
NIGHT AND EARLY THU. THUS, WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (MORE THAN 2  
STANDARD DEVIATIONS PWATS) STREAMING OVER THE BOUNDARY, HEAVY  
RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE  
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR.  
 
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL TEND TO DECREASE THU NIGHT BEHIND A COLD  
FRONT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. MOST OF FRI  
SHOULD BE DRY UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER, MODEL  
CONSENSUS (INFLUENCED IN PART BY THE CMC) APPEARED TO INDICATE THE  
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT DUE TO LARGE  
SCALE TROFFING ALOFT AND ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY MAKING  
IT INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA BY SUN (DAY 7). FOR NOW, SAT NIGHT  
LOOKS THE WETTEST OUT OF THE WEEKEND PERIODS. AT THIS TIME, TOTAL  
QPF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS 3+ INCHES NEAR THE AR/TN  
LINES TO SOMEWHAT LESS THAN 2 INCHES NORTH OF I-64.  
 
EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE  
INCOMING AIRMASSES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
VFR FLYING EXPECTED UNDER HIGH OVERCAST AND VERY LIGHT WINDS  
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND  
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES START TO WORK IN, ESPECIALLY OVER  
WEST KY/SEMO, BY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN  
TRYING TO SETTLE IN.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JGG  
LONG TERM...DB  
AVIATION...JGG  
 
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