953
FXUS63 KPAH 160450
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WHILE INCREASING WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (60-80%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY REMAINS NORTH OF
US.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT BECOMES A BIT LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE DELAYED FOR
THAT FRONT, WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE APPROACH 60 DEGREES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS MAY END UP STAYING DRY
WITH ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO JUMP UP CLOSE TO 600-800 J/KG WITH
SHEAR NEAR 40KTS. THAT COMBINATION WILL GIVE A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MARGINAL RISK
IS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS; HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
A VERY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEWPOINTS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30
TO 40 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE BETTER OVERLAP OF VERY STRONG SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA; HOWEVER, THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TREK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL KEEP A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE WEAKENING. STILL VALIDATES THE SLIGHT
RISK HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC. STILL LOOKING LIKE A 40-50% CHANCE OF ANY
ONE AREA SEEING 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PATCHES OF 6-8 KFT
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6-10 KTS
TOMORROW. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF BY EARLY
EVENING. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. VSBY DROPS WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVIER RAIN OR
STORMS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...ATL
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