638
FXUS63 KPAH 222340
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL. BETWEEN 7
TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST IN PLACES WITH A 85% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA (4 INCHES) ACROSS
THE ENTIRE QUAD-STATE. PROBABILITIES OF A FOOT OR MORE
ACCUMULATION ARE ABOVE 60% FROM ROUGHLY POPLAR BLUFF
NORTHEASTWARD TO EVANSVILLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
- A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER MAY
RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT WITH REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS. THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE ICE ACCRETION EXCEEDS A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- PROLONGED SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS BEGINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 0 DEGREES OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND IS ABOUT 85%.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THE LOW THAT WILL START ALL OF OUR TROUBLE IS STILL SWIRLING
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SWIRL WAS SAMPLED LAST NIGHT BY
USAF HURRICANE HUNTERS TO BETTER RESOLVE IT AND HOPEFULLY,
HELP US FORECAST ITS IMPACTS BETTER. THOSE IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
SIGNIFICANT, AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME FOR THE AREA WITH HEAVY,
POSSIBLY RECORD SNOWFALL, MIXED IN WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AS DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MOVE IN.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALL GUIDANCE THAT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AN
EXCEPTIONAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, PUSHED BY A
1048-1052 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA
AND THE ABSOLUTE NORTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE POLAR REGION. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WE ARE IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 150-170 KT
WESTERLY JET MAXIMUM INTRODUCING BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS
LOWER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS STEEPEN IN RESPONSE 850MB WARM
ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CRANKS UP. WHAT
SHOULD BEGIN AS A FAIRLY LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL THEN TRANSITION
TO A HEAVIER WETTER SNOW PROBABLY MIXED WITH SLEET OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. JET-LEVEL ASCENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL RIGHT REAR EXIT REGION PHASES
WITH THE ADVANCING LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE THE PEAK OF LIFT BOTH
FROM JET LEVEL AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A SURFACE LOW THEN
STARTS TO FORM OVER MS/AL ADDITION SOME DEFORMATION FORCING INTO
THE EQUATION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS CURVATURE BEHIND THE
LOW GIVES US SOME LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT, AND PROBABLY HAS A POINT, ABOUT
850MB FLOW BEING FASTER/STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO SUCH TREMENDOUS JET-LEVEL LIFT. THIS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WARMS TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN TERRITORY. I EXPECT THAT MIGHT OCCUR IN BURSTS
RATHER THAN CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE EVENT AS 850MB FLOW SURGES
IN STRENGTH. THIS MAKES SPECIFIC TOTALS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO PIN DOWN, BUT THE LONG-DURATION STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE
MAKES THE WARNING PART EASIER, EVEN IF SLEET EATS INTO TOTALS
QUITE A BIT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER FOR 5-6
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE. NORTHWEST OF THE POTENTIAL SLEET
REGION, WHEREVER THAT FORMS, WILL BE A SWEET SPOT OF VERY
STRONG LIFT AND COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR HEAVY SNOW AND
AREAS FLIRTING WITH A FOOT OR MORE CERTAINLY STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE.
THIS STORM SCREAMS FOR A MORE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH AND
OUR TOOLS FOR THAT HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT. THE CENTER
BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS 85 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF 8 OR MORE
INCHES AND 60% PROBABILITIES OF A FOOT OR MORE. RIGHT ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER THE NUMBERS ARE LOWER BUT EVEN DOWN THERE SHOWS AN
80% PROBABILITY OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE. WHEREVER THAT PERFECT
SWEET SPOT MAXIMIZES WILL SEE QUITE A SNOWMAN STRANGLER, BUT
EVERYONE IN THE REGION IS AS LIKELY AS THEY CAN BE FROM THIS
RANGE TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT, IMPACTFUL, DANGEROUS WINTER STORM
AND ANYTHING DONE TO PREPARE FOR THAT WILL BE EFFORT THAT WILL
NOT BE WASTED. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AND
WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT GREATLY EXACERBATING THE DANGER.
IN THE NEW FORECAST THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOWPACK,
TEMPERATURES DO NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE AN UNUSUALLY LONG
COLD PERIOD EVEN UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. SOME SNOWFALL
REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUBLIMATION ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO
SHINE ON MONDAY BUT THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A STORM THAT WILL BE
MORE DIFFICULT THAN USUAL TO CRAWL OUT FROM UNDER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
BEHIND IT, NORTH WINDS WILL GUST 20-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCGI.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ FRIDAY TO 6 PM
CST /7 PM EST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ FRIDAY NIGHT
TO 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS
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