680
FXUS63 KPAH 191203
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
703 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT, IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT.
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLOSE
OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DIMINUTION IN ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE BY
AFTERNOON AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. THE BEST
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT EVEN TO THE WEST, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. WHILE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, RAINFALL MAY ADD UP TO
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
A VERY SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL PROMOTE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS, THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S (EAST) TO UPPER 60S (WEST) ON SATURDAY,
THEN SURGE WELL INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. LIKEWISE, LOWS WILL WARM
FROM NEAR 40 TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SHUNT MOST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST REGION, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. THOUGH MANY PLACES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY TOP 80 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY,
HOWEVER, THINGS GET A BIT MURKIER AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THUS, WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AT
THAT TIME. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL AT THIS
TIME REGARDING MAJOR IMPACTS, WITH VERY LITTLE MOD/UPPER FORCING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK BACK SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES AND
ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SHOULD
STILL BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR MID/LATE APRIL.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
AS AN UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED BY LOW
CEILINGS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...RYANP
SHORT TERM...RYANP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RYANP
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