559
FXUS63 KPAH 012245
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND,
WITH WRAP-AROUND DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON STORM SUNDAY.
- LINGERING AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE EAST.
- WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO AROUND 90 BY FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH, RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW 80 FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE, NEAR COLD MAXIMUM RECORDS.
STORMS HAVE NOT FIRED IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE
AREA, AND AT THIS POINT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO. WRAP-AROUND DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AS A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. A COLD AIR FUNNEL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY OR TOMORROW, BUT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME DEGREE
OF AMBITION FROM THESE SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE SUNDAY,
AGAIN NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS, WITH DRIZZLE TO LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS KEEPING THINGS DREARY. A
FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR, THOUGH THUNDER
CHANCES WERE LOWERED COMPARED TO THE INITIALIZATION. THE CUTOFF
LOW VERY SLOWLY CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD DRIFT THROUGH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS LOWER AND BECOME
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL VARIATION IN
POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS IT DRIFTS EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BUT, SHOULD THE SYSTEM PROGRESS TOWARDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, THAT ASPECT WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED NARROWED IF
NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLEARING
ALONG WITH THE CESSATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN CLIMBING, CONTINUING TO WARM LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE QUAD STATE. MODELS ARE DIVIDED AS
TO WHETHER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATE WEEK,
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. INCREASED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH HIGHS REACHING 90 RESULTS IN 100-105 DEGREE
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE ROTATES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, EXPECT A POTPOURRI OF LOW CLOUDS/CIGS WITH
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR, EVEN LIFR POTENTIALLY, AS WELL AS SCATTERED
POCKETS OF LIGHT PCPN RESTRICTING VSBYS TO MVFR, PERHAPS IFR AT
TIMES. SOME GRADUAL/MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT/LIFTING OF BASES MAY
OCCUR DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST, BUT
SHOWERS/TEMPORARY LOWERING OF BASES/VSBYS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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