499
FXUS63 KPAH 201619
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1119 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHEAST INTO MAINLY WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH EXPANSION.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE QUAD STATE EXCEED 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 80S. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A COLD FRONT IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE THIS MORNING. THE INCREASE IN SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE 0Z
CAMS FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
MORE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY THAT IS CURRENTLY NOT UNDER A
FLOOD WATCH. GIVEN THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LOCALIZED AT MOST WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.5 TO
1.0 INCH PER HOUR, HAVE DECIDED TO NOT EXPAND THE WATCH. 1 HOUR FFG
IS ALSO QUITE HIGH IN THE 1.75-3.00 INCH RANGE WITH STORMS THAT WILL
BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. GIVEN WSR-88D TRENDS, THE HRRR/ARW SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR MOST OF
THE FA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE THEN PROGGED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN MUCH
DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF A RETURNING
THUNDERSHOWER CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. THE
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 80-90%
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK CONCERNING AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED WITH POOR LAPSE RATES.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
MOISTURE EACH DAY WITH THE LREF SUPPORTING A 50-70% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES DO TREND WARMER
BACK INTO THE 80S AS A CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY AND HELPS TO AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HIGHS
EVENTUALLY RETURN TO THE MID 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF EVEN
KPAH/KOWB. IFR AND LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE
OUT, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AT LEAST
AT WESTERN TERMINALS. LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR SOUTHEAST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION THOUGH. CONDITIONS LIKELY DECLINE AGAIN
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN OF IFR CIGS. AFTER THE
-SHRA EXITS WE MAY STILL HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO
DEAL WITH ACROSS WEST KY OVERNIGHT, BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THAT IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...SP
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