507
FXUS63 KPAH 281140
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 64 SATURDAY. ISOLATED TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MIXING OF SLEET.
- CHILLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING TO THE EAST WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE TODAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SHOW PRECIPITATION REACHING SEMO LATE TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE AT WET-
BULBING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFALL, AND HINTS
OF THIS EVEN REMAIN IN MODELS LIKE THE CANADIAN AND GFS.
HOWEVER, THE CAMS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER AND LIGHTER ON
SNOWFALL, AND THE 06Z HRRR AND RRFS NEARLY REMOVES ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SNOW-FREE ASIDE FROM PERHAPS PRE-DAWN HOURS, BUT QPF HAS
DROPPED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE 6Z-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH A LATER
SYSTEM ARRIVAL.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET MIXING IN AS
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (700-800MB) WILL PRODUCE A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE. AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY SNOW (AND/OR SOME MIXING OF SLEET)
WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SLICK ROADS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED. POTENTIAL
IS HIGHEST ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT TRACKS FROM AROUND KC TO
CHICAGO, WITH A QUICK INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. IMPACTS WILL BE
GREATER FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN MO/IL/IN. WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE SNOW. A TRANSITION TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE,
MAKING HOLIDAY TRAVEL MUCH LESS OBSTRUCTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING, ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW, BUT LATE EVENT QPF IS TRIVIAL SO AT MOST THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A DUSTING OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, AND AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
DAKOTAS, WILL BRING IN COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE MOVES
FROM THE GULF, THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST, WHILE THE OTHER MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIR BIT OF VARIATION AS
TO THE TIMING, POSITIONING, AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF THESE
SYSTEMS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WINTRY WEATHER (SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE IN PLAY AS EARLY WEEK
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT POPS/QPF ARE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE VERY ROBUST AND THE GULF
MOISTURE IS MAINLY GOING TO BE STEERED ALONG SOUTHEAST OF QUAD
STATE. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE TIME PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST POPS
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THE AREA OF HIGHEST QPF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF
ANY SNOWFALL DOES OCCUR WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. POPS ARE
INCLUDED LATE NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY RELATED TO MOISTURE FLOW IN
THE DEEP SOUTH, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE VERY SCATTERED WHEN IT COMES
TO THAT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING, LOWERING DURING THE NIGHT BUT REMAINING VFR. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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