042
FXUS63 KPAH 260439
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-80%
CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW
TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG I-64 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE WILL INITIATE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, AS STORM WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY
MOIST PWAT VALUES, AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PROGGED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAVE
PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT
TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR AS WELL. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR NORTH,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION (BOTH SUPERCELLS AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS) WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL AND
MOVE EAST INTO WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN. CONCERN IS GROWING THAT
WE COULD SEE A FEW REPORTS OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, IN ADDITION TO MORE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
ISSUES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAG INTO THE AREA BEFORE
WASHING OUT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH AS A VERY STOUT H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AROUND 20-24C, TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 105 TO 110F ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL LIKELY BEEN NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE WESTERN
TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. A LULL WILL OCCUR
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH POCKETS OF IFR REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH AROUND 8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ014-018.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
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