680  
FXUS63 KPAH 191203  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
703 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT, IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH  
SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH GOOD  
MODEL AGREEMENT.  
 
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLOSE  
OFF AS IT DIGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE  
AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS  
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DIMINUTION IN ACTIVITY MAY  
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE BY  
AFTERNOON AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. THE BEST  
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT EVEN TO THE WEST, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. WHILE  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, RAINFALL MAY ADD UP TO  
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN  
KENTUCKY.  
 
A VERY SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF  
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL PROMOTE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO  
20 MPH MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS, THE  
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY  
SUNNY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.  
 
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS  
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S (EAST) TO UPPER 60S (WEST) ON SATURDAY,  
THEN SURGE WELL INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. LIKEWISE, LOWS WILL WARM  
FROM NEAR 40 TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON  
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SHUNT MOST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST  
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST REGION, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUING. THOUGH MANY PLACES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, SOME  
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY TOP 80 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY,  
HOWEVER, THINGS GET A BIT MURKIER AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES  
INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND  
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THUS, WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AT  
THAT TIME. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL AT THIS  
TIME REGARDING MAJOR IMPACTS, WITH VERY LITTLE MOD/UPPER FORCING  
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT  
SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK BACK SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER  
OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES AND  
ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SHOULD  
STILL BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR MID/LATE APRIL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
AS AN UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE TODAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED BY LOW  
CEILINGS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST TONIGHT  
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. NORTH/NORTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT  
TIMES.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RYANP  
SHORT TERM...RYANP  
LONG TERM...GM  
AVIATION...RYANP  
 
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