170
FXUS63 KPAH 071651
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS AROUND 90 AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL BRING A PLEASANT
END TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDICES CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-80% CHANCE OF RAIN) ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING MID TO UPPER 50
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT WITH
THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
MAY OVER-PERFORM BY A FEW DEGREES. AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE DOWN NEAR 30%, OR POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
EARLY TUESDAY AND SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE
IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH A HEAT INDEX OF 100.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS ROUGHLY 95-100, AND HEAT INDICES 100-104.
THE 00Z GEFS HAS A 50-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OVER VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN ON THE EXTREME
SIDE OF LATE, BUT THOSE PROBABILITIES DO BEAR OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO TOUCH 100 ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
CONTINUES. POPS ARE NOW AROUND 80% OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
50-60% CHANCES FROM THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
WEST KENTUCKY. QPF WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THESE QPF TRENDS ARE REASONABLY IN LINE WITH THE 00Z
GEFS. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF IT
POPPING BACK UP OVER THE QUAD STATE BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD MEAN
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES NOT AMPLIFY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF CONVECTION EACH DAY, AND
LESS HOT, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY AT 4-6KTS LATER TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 6-9KTS
DURING THE DAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 6-10KFT MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
NE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DEEPER
MIXING MAY ALLOW SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN OUR NORTH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/CALM THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS DON'T APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
WEST KY INTO SOUTHWEST IN TOMORROW MORNING LIKELY RESULTING IN
SOME LOW VFR CLOUD BASES BY LATE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP
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