886
FXUS63 KPAH 221705
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEGREES. THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER AIR COULD LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.
- HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER JUST BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. READINGS WILL EVENTUALLY TREND WARMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WELL WE ARE REALLY DOUBLING DOWN ON THE COOLER AIR TODAY, AS LOW
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL BREAK
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY CLIMB CLOSER TO ORIGINALLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT
ELSEWHERE, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS NO CLUE AT THIS
POINT, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO, IF NOT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, THE NBM HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY BE A
BIT ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS HAPPENS, CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME LESS
PREVALENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE QUAD STATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME BEAUTIFUL
WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY
TO QUICKLY SUPPRESS THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND OR INTO NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TO OCCUR LATER AND
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS VERY LOW. BESIDES, MOST UPPER
HIGHS/RIDGES HAVE TENDED TO LINGER OVER OUR AREA THIS
SUMMER/FALL, SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NBM HAS SOME 20-30%
POPS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT TUESDAY WITH VIRTUALLY
DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THEN. AT SOME POINT WHEN THE RIDGE DOES TRY
TO BREAK DOWN, SOUTH WINDS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP,
BUT THE TIMING OF THAT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO CALL AT THIS TIME.
IN THE MEANTIME, ENJOY THIS FALL-LIKE WEATHER!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KCGI, WHERE MIXING IS HOLDING THEM OFF JUST TO THE
EAST. WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIGURE KCGI WILL SEE A RETURN
OF THE CEILINGS TOWARD 00Z WHEN MIXING CEASES. A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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