506
FXUS63 KPAH 172251
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE HOT WEATHER.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT'S APPROACH AND PASSAGE BRINGS OUR NEXT
STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES,
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE HERE THIS WEEK WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HOT WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS BACK WARM, MOIST
RETURN FLOW.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS A QUICK PERTURBATION IN
THE FLOW THAT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS ARE REINTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON (WITH A BRIEF
BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON). SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT AN MCS THREAT WEDNESDAY EVENING MAYBE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
PLACEMENT OF THE LEADING PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL BE KEY. MODELS
SUPPORT A LOW LEVEL JET WITH WESTERLY SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS
(POSSIBLY UP TO 50 KTS PER THE GFS), DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6 DEGC/KM, AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. ALSO, THE CSU MLP HAS A
15% WIND THREAT AREA OVER SEMO.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS DECENT CONSISTENCY IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES WITH THE GFS BEING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HAIL OR
EVEN A QUICK QLCS TORNADO OR TWO (IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT).
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH 2.2" PWATS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN IN THE MID
60S AND SEASONABLE HIGHS TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET WITH
CALM WINDS. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT;
WITH THE HIGHEST LAMP PROBABILITIES AT KCGI/KMVN WHERE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE A THIN LAYER
OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE PRESENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAN MODELED, THEY LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE
POTENTIAL. CALM WINDS TONIGHT TURN VARIABLE AROUND 4 KTS ON
TUESDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DW
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