686
FXUS63 KPAH 032049
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S.
- LATE WEEK (THURSDAY-SATURDAY) HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WHEN A LOW END
THREAT (5%) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 80S LATE WEEK BEFORE NUDGING UP TO 90/LOW 90S EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY EXCEED 100 BY SUNDAY, BUT ARE
MORE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK (50-60% CHANCE BY NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH PLAGUED OUR REGION WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER, LIGHT SHOWERS, AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST, NOW POSITIONED FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO AL/GA. THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE TROUGH GETS CUTOFF AND MAY SLOWLY CHURN SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD TUES-WED, BUT ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
LIKELY REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY, WHICH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
TO 25 KTS OR SO ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOWER END SEVERE THREAT. IF LATER TIMING PANS OUT
THOUGH, CONVECTION MAY BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER,
SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER (LESS THAN 20 KTS) DURING THIS PERIOD, SO SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING ORGANIZED.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY
REMAIN BELOW 90 THROUGH SATURDAY. TRENDS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN ON THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT HEAT POTENTIAL, HOLDING OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY
EXCEED 100 AGAIN. LREF DOES SUGGEST A 50-60% CHANCE AT REACHING 100+
HEAT INDEX READINGS BY NEXT TUES/WED. CURRENT NBM DEWPOINTS ARE BACK
INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE
SUGGESTING 78-79 READINGS POTENTIALLY RETURNING. WE MAY BE ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO
SEEP INTO PARTS OF THE AREA AND TAMP DOWN THE HEAT POTENTIAL SOME.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE AT MCS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF US
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL
CLEAR BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ITS INSOLAR FUEL.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS T/TD SPREAD NEARS SATURATION LATE
TONIGHT, SO PATCHY FOG WITH RESTRICTED VSBYS IS OFFERED; THERE
MAY BE RESTRICTED BASES EARLY TMRW AM AS INSOLATION BURNS/LIFTS
THE FOG OUT, ALBEIT BRIEFLY, BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS
IN ENTIRETY WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL BASES 4-5K FT AGL BY AND DURING
THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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