557
FXUS63 KPAH 111815
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. A LOW END THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS (5%
CHANCE) IS IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20-30%) OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. OTHERWISE, THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATER NEXT WEEK
(THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY) AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA.
- AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) ON
SATURDAY, WE HEAT BACK UP SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURES RETURNING. THE HOTTEST TWO DAYS LOOK LIKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID
90S ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE (50-70%) FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS
TO EXCEED 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AR/SOUTHEAST MO SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ACROSS KY/TN
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DECENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ON THE ORDER OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR
ISN'T AS ROBUST AS YESTERDAY, BUT STILL SHOULD PEAK IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT, EVEN THOUGH DCAPE VALUES LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW 800 J/KG AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STRUGGLE TO GET
MUCH HIGHER THAN 7C. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE
MAY BE FROM LIKE 21-03Z.
WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EAST ON SATURDAY,
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED SUCH THAT THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR CWA. MEANWHILE, ON SUNDAY A
DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO SNEAK INTO PARTS OF MO OR IL EITHER LATE IN THE
DAY OR INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS THOUGH, SO POPS REMAIN SILENT, BUT AT LEAST A FEW MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.
500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE SUNDAY AS RIDGING EXPANDS NORTHWARD. THE
RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 597DM BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LATE SEASON HEAT FOR OUR
REGION, ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED THIS MONTH. PRETTY GOOD BET THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH
90 DEGREES FOR 4 OR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEING
THE HOTTEST WITH SOME AREAS PUSHING ABOVE 95. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS, WITH DEW POINTS LARGELY IN THE
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS LIKELY EXCEEDING
100 ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND COULD PUSH NEAR 105 IN A FEW AREAS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND BRINGING IN A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS (AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) BY NEXT WEEKEND. DURING
THE TRANSITION A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL PRIMARILY THIS EVENING.
KPAH/KOWB/KEVV ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED WITH
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK IN THE
LOW MVFR OR IFR RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER VSBYS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN THE STRATUS DECK BUT LOWER IN THE VSBY REDUCTIONS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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