732
FXUS63 KPAH 240726
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY MORNING IN SEMO WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP.
- TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY WARM UP AGAIN INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S TO
START NEXT WORK WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (40-60%). HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND EXTENT ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
RIDGING IS BUILDING ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ONCE AGAIN CLOUD
COVER MAY BE STUBBORN IN HANGING AROUND. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED
HIGHS AGAIN TODAY BASED ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THE LAST TWO DAYS,
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
ON FRIDAY AS WE FINALLY KICK OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN SEMO WHEN A
SHORT WAVE SQUASHES THE RIDGE AND BRINGS BACK SOME PRECIP
CHANCES (20-30% CHANCE).
RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY. THE EC HAS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
LONG SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM EAST-CENTRAL CANADA, THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST, TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS
A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THIS SAME TIME, WITH A SFC
LOW OVER NORTHEAST MO AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN
THROUGH EAST TX. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS BRING NEEDED RAIN TO THE
AREA BUT WITH VERY DIFFERENT TIMING AND EXTENT. FOR NOW NBM HAS POPS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, AND RAMPING UP
TO WIDESPREAD 50-60% BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 40-50% AREA WIDE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL OF THIS WOULD BE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE ABOVE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, BECOMING MVFR AREA WIDE BY SUNRISE. EVEN SOME IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST (KEVV/KOWB). ALSO,
SETUP IS IDEAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY TO MVFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...SP
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