978
FXUS63 KPAH 211135
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 2 OF 5 POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING POTENTIAL, SO
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE
DETAILS.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
- VARIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS PRODUCING AN MCS WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL
IL TODAY. THE CURRENT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO WAA TODAY.
TRAILING BEHIND THE LOW IS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT. THE BULK OF THE MCS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE
TAIL END OF THE MCS MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES
THOUGH. ALSO EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
SFC LOW AS WELL AS THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT, DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION LOOKS TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE, 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR, AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SPC'S 5% CIG 1 HATCHED
TORNADO POTENTIAL AREA IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, WHERE EXACTLY
THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WITH STARKLY HIGH
PWATS AROUND 2", WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (FOR NOW) FROM
NOON TILL 7 AM MONDAY. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ABOVE WILL NOT BE OUR ONLY CONCERN, IN
FACT OUR MAIN CONCERN MAY VERY LIKELY BE WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS SUPPORT AROUND 2,00-2,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SEMO
AND AROUND 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ELSEWHERE. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR THAT IS PERPENDICULAR TO
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED DISCRETE CELL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. ALL HAZARD MODES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL AN UNCOMFORTABLE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS, THE CAMS ESPECIALLY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROLLS THROUGH THE SAME AREA WHICH CONTINUES
OUR RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. ANOTHER
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. THOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES, AT LEAST A WEAK (~20%) CHANCE OF
RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (~20-35%). BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY (~20-45%).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS ON THE LOWER END THIS CYCLE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH SE
TO S WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KPAH/KCGI BEFORE MAINLY A VFR CU FIELD PREVAILS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AROUND KMVN AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS SET TO ROLL THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO TOMORROW. THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF STORMS IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY STILL IS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ075-081-085.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>083.
MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ007>009-011-012.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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