218
FXUS63 KPAH 201730
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR LATE MARCH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL AGAIN RISE TO 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
25-35% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL CHART/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ACROSS THE CONUS
LOOKS A LOT LIKE JUNE WITH A 594 DM RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES ARE SINGING A
SIMILAR TUNE AS WELL AS WE SOAR INTO THE MID 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE EVEN
WARMER TOMORROW WE WE GET INTO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TERRITORY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST BREAKS DOWN AND A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS HEADING
THIS WAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN GUIDANCE SURGES 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA. THIS GIVES US ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF CONDITIONAL
MLCAPE. BUT A STRONG RESIDUAL CAPPING INVERSION IS EVIDENCE IN
ALL GUIDANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY LOW MID LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. SPC GRABBED THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN A
MRGL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE A CASE WHERE THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING GIVING THE CAPPING INVERSION AND
VERY MODEST/LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT (SAVE OF COURSE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT) REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, IF ANYTHING WERE TO GET
GOING IT WOULD HAVE A GOOD SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR A
HAIL AND WIND THREAT, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. SO THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY 70% CHANCE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS IT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WE COOL OFF ALMOST BACK TO NORMAL
BEFORE DEEP LAYER RIDGING FORMS UP IN THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AND WE
END UP IN A PATTERN THAT LOOKS A LOT LIKE WHERE WE STARTED OFF
TODAY. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE PRETTY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR JET
POSITION/INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE WILL SEE HOW THE
SPECIFICS FALL OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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