606
FXUS63 KPAH 192329
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- A SMALL (15-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND OTHER SMALL CHANCES ARE
SPRINKLED IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
WELL, TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS LINGERED LONGER OVER MORE OF THE
QUAD STATE THAN EXPECTED, AND THE COMPLETE LACK OF WARMING
CERTAINLY IS CONCERNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL A STRONG
NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY PUSH AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS, SO THE BETTER AIRMASS
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO GET BACK NORTH OVER THE QUAD STATE.
THEREFORE, THE CAPE FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENING ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE. THE SHEAR WILL BE THERE, BUT IF WE STRUGGLE TO GET
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, MUCH OF IT MAY NOT BE REALIZED.
THE CAMS HAVE NOT HAD A CLUE ABOUT TODAY'S CONVECTION, SO IT
WOULD BE DANGEROUS TO ACCEPT THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY HAMMERING ON THE 6-8 PM
PERIOD FOR STORMS TO REACH FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD
STATE, WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OVER PERRY AND JACKSON COUNTIES
IN ILLINOIS. STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION GENERALLY SOUTH OF A DUQUOIN ILLINOIS TO GREENVILLE
KENTUCKY LINE. NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, BUT GIVEN THAT THAT AREA WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE BETTER
SURFACE AIR MASS, SEVERE STORMS ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY. THERE IS
SOME SIGN OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG I-64 INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOSE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE OVER THE TRI STATE.
IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHERE AIR MASS RECOVERY WOULD PRESUMABLY BE MOST
LIKELY. THE CAPE AND SHEAR SPACE ADVERTISED BY THE CAMS WOULD
SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A STRONG
TENDENCY FOR BOW ECHOES IN THE MODELS WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF A WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE BETTER AIRMASS, A
GREATER TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT. ONCE AGAIN THIS
APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, POSSIBLY INTO
THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY.
THE TIMING FOR TONIGHT COULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS WHICH WOULD
ALLOW MORE TIME FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY, SO IT WILL NOT BE
SURPRISING IF STORMS DON'T REACH THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM OR LATER
AND THEN POSSIBLY LAST TIL AROUND 2 OR 3 AM BEFORE EXITING WEST
KENTUCKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE BETTER AIR MASS
MAKES IT.
THE STORMS TONIGHT SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP, BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SWATHS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING IMPACTS. THIS MORNING'S STORMS PRODUCED A SWATH OF 2-3"
OVER SIKESTON MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST INTO WAYNE AND BOLLINGER
COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL BE QUITE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
WITH ANY STORMS TONIGHT.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE QUAD STATE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A SOMEWHAT BUSY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
ATTEMPTING TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE QUAD STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES VERY WELL, WHICH RESULTS IN THE
NBM SPREADING A LOT OF 15-30% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST, WHICH IS QUITE WELCOME AFTER LAST WEEK'S HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH KCGI/KPAH THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY THEM. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (70-90% CHANCE) OF AT LEAST LOW MVFR CIGS
(POTENTIALLY IFR FOR A PERIOD) MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION AFTER 09-10Z AND LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LEVELS MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY OR MID
AFTERNOON FOR KEVV/KOWB. CONFIDENCE ISN'T AS HIGH FURTHER SOUTH,
BUT WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED LOWER CIG MENTION IN THE MORNING
FOR NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP
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