106
FXUS63 KPAH 190647
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND MORE INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
- NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MODERATE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY WHILE THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY POSE A MORE IMPACTFUL RISK DUE TO
THE ONGOING NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THIS MORNING, A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING
BENEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS A TROUGH SITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG RIDGING REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE UPPER FORCING IS WEAK, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOCUSED BY THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT NEARLY STALLED OUT
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION.
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH GREATER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE
ACTUALLY SEE. THE AREA DRIES OUT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS SET TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
OR HIGHER WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY BECOME AN
ISSUE AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, IT MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
VERY LITTLE IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS. SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-080>082-
084>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>017-021-022.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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