992
FXUS63 KPAH 220442
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- FALL WEATHER IS ARRIVING RIGHT ON TIME WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL
BEGINNING OF AUTUMN. IN GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISTURBANCES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON,
INSTABILITY IS BUILDING OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST WITH SUNSET, SO NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
COOL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE, AND THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW PASSES
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME GORGEOUS FALL CONDITIONS.
AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND, ENOUGH ENERGY MAY IMPINGE ON
THE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOO MURKY AT THIS TIME TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT ANY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE, TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR LOW STRATUS AND THE DURATION OF THE
LOW STRATUS. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF HIGHER MVFR BASES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT MVN,
EVV, AND OWB. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
DIURNAL HEATING, BUT SCT-BKN DECKS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NE AROUND 5-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
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