583
FXUS63 KPAH 281639
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH LOWER HUMID LEVELS. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND
HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRES THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A 60-70% CHANCE PEAKING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE EXTREME HEAT WILL COME TO AN END AFTER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE FA. DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TAPPING INTO A DRY LAYER AROUND 750 MB, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
DRY AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. A H5 IMPULSE ALSO ROUNDS A 594 DM
RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PLAINS THIS EVENING THAT WILL
PROVIDE MODEST LIFT FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HAVE LIMIT NBM POPS TO A 30% CONFINED TO
SEMO AS MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP THINGS DRY WITH THE HRRR BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE AFORMENTIONED
RIDGE SHIFTS MORE WEST. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH NEEDED RELIEF
FROM THE HUMIDITY. DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S UNTIL
FRIDAY. WHILE A WEAK AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAILY RAIN CHANCES
MAKE A RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS H5
ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES BY THE NBM PEAK AT A 60-70%
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING THE
HIGHEST RISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL THICKEN TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF ALL TERMINALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. NORTHERLY WINDS TURN LIGHT TONIGHT AROUND
3-5 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-082-
083-086-087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ080-
081-084-085-088>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ014>016-
018>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>013-017.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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