958
FXUS63 KPAH 070822
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
DESPITE THE CONVECTION STREAMING ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, WE WILL
ALLOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO CONTINUE UNCHANGED TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF EVIDENCE THAT WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT IT WILL SUPPRESS HEATING ENOUGH TO WARRANT PULLING
THE HEADLINE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALL WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY TO POOL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING WELL
OVER 100 AGAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND POSSIBLY THROUGHOUT IT.
THE 06Z NAMNEST AND HRRR RUNS BOTH BRING A LINE OF CONVECTION EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LIKELY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THAT REGION, SUCH AN OCCURRENCE
SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE. THE NAMNEST ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A NICE BOW
ECHO AS IT EXITS OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT NOT SURE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION. WESTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE FOR DAMAGING WINDS, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
IN A MARGINAL RISK. A MARGINAL WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WHERE SOME TRAINING CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT COULD BE DRY, ALTHOUGH FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, THE 06Z HRRR
BRINGS ANOTHER LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION EAST SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE EVEN KEEPS
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DRY, AND THEN HAS JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY.
WE STUCK WITH THE NBM'S LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST NEAR THE FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THAT MAY BE TOO MUCH. STILL NOT
CERTAIN IF WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT FRIDAY. AT LEAST SPC BROKE OUR STRING OF DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISKS, AND JUST HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY TO BE QUITE MISERABLE
WITH MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES STILL
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES TODAY, DECIDED
TO LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THAT DECISION.
THE TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SO SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SATURDAY. THE NBM POPS, WHICH ALWAYS LAG THE TREND, ARE
LIKELY TOO HIGH AND LINGER TOO LONG.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY, OR AT LEAST THE NBM THINKS IT WILL. WE WILL SEE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE EASTERN U.S. WILL HAVE
AN UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
HIGH POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD STATE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY,
ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL
ALLOW FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TO ARRIVE TO THE QUAD STATE,
BRINGING IN WARMER MOIST AIR. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE QUAD STATE ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT, BUT DISAGREE ON THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ALONG IT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S ON SUNDAY WILL WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DROP TO THE 80S FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE EASTERN TROUGH
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED. LOWS TREND SIMILARLY, FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO THE LOWER 70S
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN TRENDING A LITTLE LOWER FOR MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, FOR THE MOST PART, THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST COMMON EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN IN AND ADJACENT AREAS (INCLUDING THE KEVV/KOWB
TERMINALS) OVERNIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THAT AREA IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING IN PERHAPS BRIEF REDUCTIONS
OF VSBY IN RAIN. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT, AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND QUITE VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.
AS THE POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA, LIKE TODAY, THERE MAY BE A GENERAL SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO A MORE NORTHERLY ONE. DIRECTION OF THE WINDS
WAS GIVEN WHERE POSSIBLE IN THE TAFS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>022.
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...DB
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