258
FXUS63 KPAH 032205
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET, LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A SMALL CHANCE (15-20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY IN FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BETTER
CHANCES (50-80%) ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BECOME SOUPY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 90 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY, AND LIKELY
INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH THE QUAD STATE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NBM POPS JUST BARELY CLIMB UP
TO 15% ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REGION.
A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. COMBINED WITH CONTINUE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS, THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. THE BEST CHANCES AT
THIS TIME ARE AROUND 80% OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
AFTER MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRY TO REASSERT ITSELF
OVER THE QUAD STATE, WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST REDUCE THE COVERAGE
OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK, SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
(150-175% OF NORMAL) PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST, AN
ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT. DESPITE THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, THE 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ONLY INDICATES A 40(NE)-80(SW) CHANCE OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF 2+" OF RAIN IS
10% OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECENS HAS UP TO AN 80% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SATURDAY, AND UP TO A 50% CHANCE THERE ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GEFS HAS MUCH LESSER CHANCES OF HITTING 90
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT FOR
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TOWARD 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL TAKE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE
FORECAST, SO THERE EXISTS ONLY SUBTLETIES TO THE OTHERWISE
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES PACKAGE. FEW-SCT MAINLY DIURNAL BASES WILL
RANGE FROM 4-6K FT AGL. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME
SUB 30 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS MIGHT SUPPORT TEMPORARY
CIGS NORTHEAST, SO GAVE THAT AN AFTERNOON TEMPO CATEGORY JUST IN
CASE. DIURNAL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLIES TMRW, AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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