575
FXUS63 KPAH 251116
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
- GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LARGELY ZONAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE QUAD STATE. THE FIRST
ARRIVES TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
AREA. CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA MOSTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF I-64 AND MAY FOCUS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THE NBM KEEPS THE FOOTPRINT OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH DUE TO A FEW INDIVIDUAL OUTLIER
SOLUTIONS, THE HREF AND LREF BOTH HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS
FOR AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN COORDINATED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
FINALLY LIFTS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 105-110 RANGE MONDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
RESTRICTIONS AT CGI FROM FOG WILL CLEAR UP SHORTLY. MOST OF
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO MVN
AFTER 21Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOP TAKES PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
WELL TO THE WEST WITH GUIDANCE BRINGING SHRA/TSRA INTO THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS TO
CIGS AND VISBY ARE EXPECTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-6 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ014-018.
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