549
FXUS63 KPAH 261732
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION
AND TIMING.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION AND TIMING.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
PROMINENT RIDGING CONTINUES OUT WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THAT PLACES US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF
RIDGE RIDER WAVES INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. SPC DOES, HOWEVER, HAVE US IN
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD THIS COMPLEX
FORM, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MODELS ARE
JUGGLING THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION WITH MOST BRINGING AN MCV
THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE A FEW (SUCH AS THE
13Z HRRR) MISS US JUST EAST. BEST TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 5PM
- 10PM, THOUGH SOME CONVECTION MAY POP UP AS EARLY AS 19Z AND
MAY LINGER AS LATE AS 11- 12Z TOMORROW. ANOTHER WAVE TOMORROW
MAY GENERATE CONVECTION THAT MODELS HAVE MOSTLY MISSING US TO
THE EAST. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN.
WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT...DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 80S, HAVE EXPANDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING EAST BY A ROW OF COUNTIES AND RUN IT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
ALSO EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY. BOTH REGIONS NOW RUN FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
LOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH DEWPOINTS THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S GENERALLY. SOME OF
THIS MAY BE MITIGATED BY CONVECTION AT TIMES. SOME RELIEF COMES ON
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, FEELING MORE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT OVER EVV AND OWB BUT SHOULD ONLY
LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A SCATTERED CU DECK IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 5K FT. THIS EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UPSTREAM AND DIVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AT MVN,
EVV, AND OWB. SKIES WILL START CLEARING OUT TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN IN THE
MORNING, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE RIGHT NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-076-
080>082-084>086-088>094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ077-078-083-087.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>012.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ013>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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