924
FXUS63 KPAH 240345
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INCREASE FOR LATE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE
AROUND 2-3" ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, DECREASING TO AROUND
0.5-1" ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QUAD STATE.
- SUMMER HEAT RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT
INDICES OVER 105 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONCERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE ON A PLEASANT AND COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS
PROJECTED TO ONLY REACH THE NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80 RANGE. DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE. A
NARROW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MISSOURI INTO
ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE QUAD STATE, THE OZARKS, WHICH MAY SNAG A MODERATE
RAIN SHOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM EARLY MORNING, WHILE
MOST ACTIVITY STAYS TO THE WEST/SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY, AND
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING IN THE FRONT RANGE, TRAIL A COLD FRONT
BETWEEN THEM. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. THE FRONT STALLS IN A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION AS WE MOVE INTO LATE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS
VARY ON TIMING BUT TEND TO FAVOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PEAK CHANCES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DECENT CAPE, BUT
SHEAR WILL BE MORE LIMITED AROUND 20-25KTS. ADEQUATE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE OR TWO ACROSS THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IF ONE OF THE DISTURBANCES MOVES
THROUGH DURING A MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY, BUT MORE IN THE
REALM OF STANDARD SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY. POPS HAVE INCREASED IN
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY, SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF WHEN RAIN
FINALLY MOVES OUT WITH CHANCE POPS REMAINING IN THE EVANSVILLE
TRI-STATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON AVERAGE, MODELS FAVOR
PLACING THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH, SO QPF RANGES FROM 2-3
INCHES IN THE NORTH TO HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH
PERIODS OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER.
A RIDGE QUICKLY STRENGTHENS SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE QUAD STATE.
TEMPERATURES SURGE TO THE 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR LOWS. DAYTIME HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE TRIPLE
DIGITS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE AROUND
105-110 EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WE WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT
PRODUCTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH CALM WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY 4-6 KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
SCT TO AT TIMES BKN HIGH CLOUD EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LIKELY WILL HAVE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION SNEAKS
INTO KCGI/KMVN TOMORROW EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
SO FOR NOW ONLY MENTIONED VCSH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
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