423
FXUS63 KPAH 090712
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
212 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO A SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1
PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AS AN UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST TODAY A SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THIS WILL PUSH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S. WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI ZONAL, A SERIES
OF KINKS IN THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY AN INCREASE IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO
AROUND 20-30 KTS WILL HELP STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMES 2,000-3,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
WHICH LENDS ITSELF TO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OF 5, TODAY).
SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST A LATE DAY EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR SYSTEM OF
STORMS ALONG WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT (A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE) OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A SIMILAR SET UP IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TOMORROW.
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOULD THESE TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS THE REASON A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, THIS MEANS THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK LOOKS
DRIER WITH HIGHS BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW-END VFR CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. A PARTIAL OR EXTENDED LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
VSBYS OF MVFR/IFR (BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE). SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 6-8 KTS OUT OF THE SSW
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THUNDERSTORMS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL
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