502
FXUS63 KPAH 142334
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER STELLAR DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN AN EVENTUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING/LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND, AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MEANDER IN OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROF WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PAH
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
HALF OF COUNTIES CLOSER THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AND THE
FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH, THEN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER
TROF PASSES BY, THE INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SECOND TROF. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM
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