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FXUS63 KPAH 121806
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1206 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NUDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (50S) OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (60S)
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST 1" OF RAINFALL
THIS WEEKEND, AND A 20-40% CHANCE AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2".
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKES SHAPE
TO THE WEST. THE RETURN FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEKEND, DESPITE THE COMING CLOUDS/RAIN. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
RAIN/AMOUNTS, HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND THUS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES THAT A WET WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR ALL,
WITH A 60-80% CHANCE THAT MOST SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF STORM
TOTAL RAINFAL. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED
2 INCHES. THESE WETTER AMOUNTS ARE BUFFETED BY THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE PAINTING 90TH+ PERCENTILE MOISTURE PROFILES AMIDST 2-5
YEAR RETURN INTERVALS. AS A RESULT OF THAT, WPC NOW HAS US IN A
MRGL-SLGT CHANCE OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING. THAT SAID, THE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER A 48-72 HOUR PERIOD, AND AS A RESULT,
WE ANTICIPATE LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES, IF
THERE ARE ANY AT ALL. THE MAIN IMPACT MAY ULTIMATELY TURN OUT TO
BE A NET POSITIVE VIA AT LEAST SOME ALLEVIATION OF OUR ONGOING
D0-D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE, WE CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME NEXT WEEK AS WE SEE DAILY HIGHS REACH THE
60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WHEN A 70F READING
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION; MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTH IF THAT
OCCURS. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY. AFTER
THAT, THE MEMBER SIGNALS VARY, BUT OFFER THE SUGGESTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR A RESUMPTION OF RAIN CHANCES SOME TIME TOWARD THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEK OR INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THERE IS STILL A STRONG DEFICIT (100+ MB) OF CONDENSATION
PRESSURE IN THE LOWEST LAYER, SO CLOUD BASES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL OVER THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THESE SCT-BKN BASES THIN AND
DISSIPATE WITH TIME, EVEN AS THEY MAY LOWER, AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT'LL ALLOW SOME
RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY THE ENDING OF
THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE VFR FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
HUMPHREY
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