142
FXUS63 KPAH 052354
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
554 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WARMER, BUT SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, THEN
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
- SAY GOODBYE TO THE SNOW! PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A
MAJOR WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE AREA NOT REACHING 50 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
ELSEWHERE 50 DEGREES IS A NEAR CERTAINTY BOTH DAYS. ALSO,
THERE IS GREATER THAN AN 80% CHANCE OF LOWS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, THEN RELAX
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME ZONAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
FRIDAY AND THAT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
IN THE MORNING. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY, BUT THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMB UP NEAR 60 DEGREES.
THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY, RESULTING HIGHS IN THE 30S, WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH ALONG WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE, WILL
LEAD TO A VERY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE 12Z ENSEMBLES
INDICATE A NEAR 100% CHANCE OF MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE REACHING
50 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND HAVING LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE ARE IN DANGER OF NOT REACHING 50 OR FALLING
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN THERE, THE CHANCE IS
ROUGHLY 70-80% TO REACH 50 AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE 12Z GEFS
HAS A 20% CHANCE OF POPLAR BLUFF AND DONIPHAN REACHING 70 ON
TUESDAY. IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE MILD AND THAT SHOULD GET RID
OF MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK, EXCEPT FOR THE LARGE PILES.
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW SETTLES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NBM HAS A GENERAL 40%
CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE NEAR AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE NBM IS GENERATING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ALONG I-64
WITH MOST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THERE SEEING CLOSER TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z ECENS AND GEFS SHOW THE
OPPOSITE PATTERN ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AND GREATEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
OBVIOUSLY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT WE
HAVE A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH NO CHANCE OF THUNDER OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE QUAD STATE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS CLIPPING NORTHEASTERN SITES DURING THE
EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP LOW VSBYS AND/OR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI CONFLUENCE REGION.
SUSPECT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED KCGI WILL PRODUCE SOME VSBY
REDUCTIONS BUT THE SNOWPACK WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE MOISTURE.
WIND SHEAR EARLY MORNING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LATE-MORNING
HOURS WHEN WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN, GUSTING TO 20-25KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL
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