157  
FXUS63 KPAH 161620  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1120 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONDITION TODAY  
THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
- A ROBUST FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE  
LEVELS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RENEWED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES ON TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE  
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.  
 
OUR FIRST POTENT FALL STORM SYSTEM OF THE SEASON WILL BRING  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY  
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN BY A RATHER DEEP  
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A NEUTRAL TILT PASS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD. AT  
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN  
OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD BY  
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE  
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN  
HUMIDITY LEVELS (MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) ALONG  
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S (APPROACHING  
RECORD LEVELS). THERE MAY BE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE FIRST  
ROUND COULD BE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO  
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY, TRIGGERED  
BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A SECOND, MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND LOOKS  
QUITE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY  
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE  
TRENDED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS, NOW ONLY EXPECTED TO  
REACH SOAKING RAIN LEVELS OF 0.75-1.50" AMOUNTS THANKS TO THE  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE, A POTENT DISTURBANCE, AND  
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF POSSIBLE  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A FEW  
REASONS. FIRST, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH  
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY  
HINTING THERE MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT EML OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND STORM  
COVERAGE. SECOND, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND HOW MUCH LOW- AND  
MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED  
UPDRAFTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE  
DEVELOPMENT, TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL JET  
STREAK, WHICH COULD HELP OVERCOME THE EML CAPPING. THERE ARE  
SIMILAR ISSUES WITH LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. IT'S POSSIBLE THE  
INGREDIENTS JUST DO NOT COME TOGETHER IN THE RIGHT TIME AND  
LOCATION TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
IF THE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR  
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS COULD BE MORE DISCREET, WITH  
MODEST WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADO THREATS. THE SECOND WIDESPREAD  
ROUND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A MCS OR SQUALL LINE,  
AGAIN WITH LOW- LEVEL WIND AND SPIN-UP TORNADO THREATS. IT MUST  
BE STRESSED THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE WIDE ENVELOP  
OF SOLUTIONS ON THE TABLE, AND THINGS SHOULD BECOME A BIT  
CLEARER IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHORT RETURN OF QUIET AND SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE  
FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. POPS REMAIN LOW DURING THIS  
PERIOD DUE TO WIDE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS POSSIBLE, BUT MAY TREND  
UPWARD IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE ARE ANTICIPATED  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM AND FOG  
AND GROUND FOG ARE EXPECTED AT CGI AND POSSIBLY PAH. ANOTHER  
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND AND VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR  
FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...DWS  
DISCUSSION...DWS  
AVIATION...JGG  
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