682
FXUS63 KPAH 242230
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS LESS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MID-
WEEK, PEAKING AT A 20-30% CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BUILD OVER NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,
PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
INCREASING SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PATCHY FOG FAIRLY SPARSE. BY WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE TRENDED MORE SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY THAT WOULD FAVOR AN ELEVATED COMPLEX OF STORMS
REMAINING FOCUSED ACROSS AR/TN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NBM
POPS ARE NOW LOWER AS A RESULT, BUT STILL PEAK AT A 20-30%
CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW CHANCES RETURN OVER THE
KENTUCKY PENNYRILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS BEING THE ONLY RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BUILD
NEXT WEEKEND AS A 594 DM SOUTHEAST RIDGE CAUSES HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY, 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
PUSHING 20C WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SITUATES TO OUR EAST AND KEEPS A
DRY ADVECTION ON THE LOW LAYERS OF THE COLUMN AT FLIGHT
TERMINALS HERE. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK WAVE
OPENS UP AND SPILLS OUT OF THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES,
BRINGING MID-HIGH LEVEL BASES THAT SATURATE DOWN THE UPPER PART
OF THE COLUMN DURING THE FORECAST PACKAGE TIME. EXPECT AN
INTRODUCTION OF VFR CIGS IN THE PROCESS, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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