385
FXUS63 KPAH 122154
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID. THERE
IS A 70-90% CHANCE AT DEW POINTS REMAINING BELOW 60 DEGREES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY! THIS APPEARS SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN LATER
IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY STARTING
TO FILTER IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. ALOFT, A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE QUAD STATE AND INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MISSOURI ON SATURDAY AND MAY DEVELOP INTO
A MCS THAT RIDES ALONG A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT ORIENTED NW-SE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE
ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD OFFER A SEVERE STORM THREAT.
DEPENDING ON AIRMASS RECOVERY BEHIND THIS MCS, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY. PWS WILL BE HIGH
AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS LEADS TO INCREASING CONCERN
FOR FLASH FLOODING.
RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
TO DROP INTO THE 50S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS BY THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS MID TO LATE WEEK AND MAY OFFER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A MORE TRANQUIL/BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TMRW.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE AND LOWER VFR BASES TO MVFR CIGS AS
SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE PROBABLE, ESP ENTERING AND DURING THE
PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INCREASED PROBS FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKEWISE BRING ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IF/WHERE THEY OCCUR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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