349
FXUS63 KPAH 270702
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST, WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK
WITH HIGHS RISING TO NEAR 80 LATER IN THE WEEK AND LOWS RISING
TO THE 50S. PATCHY MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO BE A DAILY ISSUE.
WHILE WE HAVE HAD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF RAINS FROM
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM VANCE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO. BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE, ALBEIT MORE SO AT ELEVATED
LEVELS, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE QUAD STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH TIMING VARIES. POPS MAX OUT AROUND 50-60%
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHEASTERN AREAS
MORE LIKELY TO HAVE RAIN HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MOST HALLOWEEN
ACTIVITIES ARE COMPLETE, WITH SEMO MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED.
THE BLEND DID PUT THUNDER BACK IN FOR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
SEMO SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT, BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
AND WE REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. QPF
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW, ORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM CAN EXCEED THAT, THOUGH WOULD HAVE
TO DO SO BY A LOT TO PRODUCE FLOODING ISSUES.
WHILE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE MOISTURE
ARRIVES AT THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR TAKING THESE TWO FEATURES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PRODUCING A BROAD, DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OF COURSE, BEING ROUGHLY A WEEK OUT AND
INVOLVING ELEMENTS FROM MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, TIMING VARIES ACROSS
MODELS, ALONG WITH POSITIONING, SO POPS ARE LIMITED AND SPREAD
OUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG TONIGHT. A HIGH
OVERCAST MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY FROM
REALLY DROPPING BUT PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY
TEMPORARILY WILL BE REASONABLE TO EXPECT AREA-WIDE IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. VFR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IS FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS GOING CALM AFTER DARK.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...JGG
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