509
FXUS63 KPAH 252257
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
457 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.25" FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATTER HALF OF
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
(40-60%) OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAKLY CYCLONIC H5 SYNOPTIC
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING AREAS LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (60-90%) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KY PENNYRILE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-0.25" FORECAST
FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF WEST KY. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST, DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GREATLY TO ONLY A TRACE TO AROUND 0.10". OVERALL, ANY
PRECIPITATION IS WELCOME, BUT THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT MAKE A DENT
ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. CONTINUED MILD H5 ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DURING THIS TIME, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST
WINDS AS THEY STAND LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH FROM THE SW.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE TROUGH-DOMINATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE REGION.
THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL LOW ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64. HOWEVER, NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK AT BIT MORE PROMISING
FOR DROUGHT RELIEF, WITH THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 60-80% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.50" OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 30% DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR.
AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH A 50-60% CHANCE PEAKING AT KPAH. LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 6-12 KTS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ALL TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT
THAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DW
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