720
FXUS63 KPAH 111822
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1222 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TRENDS INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE AIR MASS IS WELL IN PLACE WITH THE
RETURN OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WILL PERSIST THRU TMRW. BY THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL
BE MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE, AND WILL BE POISED TO SEE
60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. THESE MILDER TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY FOR AWHILE, AS BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
PROJECT AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME.
THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE FORECAST, EXCEPTING
THE MILD TEMPERATURES, WILL BE THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN EVENT. THE
DAY-TO-DAY TRENDING OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE TRACK'S
FOCUS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD, AND TODAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THAT TREND. AS A RESULT, THE
NBM NOW PROJECTS FROM 0.75" ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH, TO JUST ABOVE
2" IN PARTS OF OUR FAR SOUTH. THE PROBABILISTIC NBM'S OUTPUT
SUGGESTS A BROAD 40 (NORTH) TO 60 (SOUTH) PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WE'LL SEE STORM AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.
THE WETTING RAINS OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD HELP, ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE REGIME, TO DISPERSE OF ANY REMAINING SNOW
PILES AND MAY ALSO HELP MITIGATE OUR ONGOING D0-D2 DROUGHT
PROFILE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A
SLOW INCREASE/LOWERING OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE COURSE OF
THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PACKAGE. BASES WILL INCREASE FROM FEW-SCT
TO SCT-BKN BY THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST, BUT
SHOULD STAY AOA 12K FT AGL AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN IN THE 100-300 MB RANGE WITHIN THE SUB 700 MB LAYER. AND
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH TIME,
LIGHT CIRCULATORY SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PLANNING HOURS TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
HUMPHREY
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