170
FXUS63 KPAH 061127
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY, GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO MURRAY KENTUCKY LINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- LABOR DAY WILL BE THE CHOICE DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90, MUCH LESS HUMIDITY, AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.
ANOTHER MAJOR WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 95 TO 100, AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRING A
30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE. HOWEVER, THE COOLING AND DRYING SURGE SEEMS A BIT
SLOW TO ARRIVE. THE NBM HAS TRENDED BACK UP WITH TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES TODAY. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ADDED A HANDFUL OF
COUNTIES TO TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY. IT NOW ROUGHLY COVERS THE
AREA SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO MURRAY KENTUCKY LINE.
THIS SHOULD BE THE END OF THE HEAT HEADLINES FOR A FEW DAYS, IF
NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER PERIOD.
THE LESS HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR LABOR DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE QUAD STATE MONDAY AND SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL RETURN
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
90S TUESDAY AND THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S, BUT EVEN ON WEDNESDAY HEAT INDICES
WILL ONLY REACH THE 100-105 RANGE, WHICH WOULD NOT REQUIRE A
HEAT ADVISORY.
THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
AND WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS POPS RANGING FROM 30% IN THE
SOUTH TO 50% IN THE NORTH. WHILE THERE IS QPF THROUGHOUT THE
REGION, IT IS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS, WHICH IS NOT
EXACTLY GOING TO REVERSE OUR CURRENT DRY SPELL.
THE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SERIOUSLY MUDDLE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING. FOR NOW, THE NBM HAS SMALL
CHANCES NEARLY EVERYDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
AN AREA OF MOSTLY IFR CEILINGS HAS ALREADY REACHED KMVN AND WILL
REACH KEVV AND KOWB IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEY SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER BY 16Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KTS
SUSTAINED MAY GUST 15-20KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ100-107>112-
114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>003-006-
009.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page