193  
FXUS63 KPAH 130459  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SCATTERED DAILY  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
- THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT  
OF DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL STORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH SOUTHWEST  
INDIANA, THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL  
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. MLCAPE VALUES  
AROUND 2500J/KG WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS, BUT THE SHEAR  
REMAINS WEAK, SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY  
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER  
8C/KM AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1300J/KG ARE FOCUSED OVER WEST  
KENTUCKY, SO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE AS  
THE STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA. WITH THE STORMS LINED UP EAST TO WEST FROM CAPE COUNTY TO  
WEBSTER COUNTY, THERE IS ALSO A SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES.  
 
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, IS BASICALLY A BROKEN RECORD  
WITH NEAR NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GREATER  
COVERAGE IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF AN UPPER  
DISTURBANCE PROVIDES A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS  
THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER THE  
QUAD STATE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY  
PROVIDE FOR A FEW DRY DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
ANYWHERE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO  
QUICKLY DEVELOP FOG ALTHOUGH THE PREVAILING SATELLITE TRENDS  
SEEM TO BE THAT WE STAY CLOUDED UP MOST EVERYWHERE TO THE POINT  
VISIBILITY STAYS UP. CONVECTION THEN BECOMES THE NEXT CONCERN  
WITH A WINDOW FOR THAT OPENING IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WHAT THE REGION SAW ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DRS  
AVIATION...JGG  
 
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