454
FXUS63 KPAH 141128
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH 70-90% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY
TODAY, AND LESSER CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AND ON
THURSDAY, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO OUR REGION FRIDAY, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S, WITH READINGS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO 90 DEGREES.
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, SINKING SOUTH AND
LAYING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST
AREA (FA) BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY, WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PAH FA FROM 09Z-18Z. CHANCES WILL PEAK AT MIDDAY AT
70-90%, GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE MORE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, RANGING FROM 15-30% SOUTH TO 40- 50% NORTH. ON
THURSDAY, A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI WILL LIFT THE
BOUNDARY NORTH, AND CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE 30-60% MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LOW
WILL BE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PAH FA. THE MODEL
BLEND PRODUCES 30-60% CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION, BUT
KEEPS MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DRY
WITH ITS PASSAGE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
QUARTER INCH TO AROUND AN INCH, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SPC INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. ON
THURSDAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE A A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DU QUOIN ILLINOIS TO CARMI TO
WINSLOW INDIANA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY FRIDAY WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
60S, AND SATURDAY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. WITH CALM WINDS
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE OUR CHILLIEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE, AND PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
ON SUNDAY, A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY, AND A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS,
WITH CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA WILL BE THROUGH 22Z, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING
THROUGH 22-02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, LOWERING
TO IFR AROUND 05Z, WHEN MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 3-8KTS THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AFTER 00Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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