756  
FXUS63 KPAH 250444  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND BE QUITE GUSTY  
UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  
 
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST  
TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK COLD  
FRONT.  
 
- A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
MASSIVE LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS FORECAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOUTH  
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH  
STEADY OR WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE VERY LOW INVERSION SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE  
SUNDAY, AND MAY HOLD DOWN WINDS AND KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING  
OUT TOO MUCH. WE WENT WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM FOR  
HIGHS SUNDAY TO INDICATE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN CONSENSUS OR  
THE BASELINE NBM.  
 
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE  
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT  
RAIN/DRIZZLE BENEATH THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION, SO THUNDER IS  
NOT LIKELY. THAT SAID THE NBM DOES HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE  
THUNDER PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.  
 
THE NBM HAS INSANELY HIGH (~30MPH) SUSTAINED WINDS ON TUESDAY,  
SO WE LOWERED THEM BY MIXING IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM  
TO GET THEM CLOSER TO 20 MPH. THE NBM GUSTS ARE SOLIDLY INTO  
WIND ADVISORY (>40 MPH) TERRITORY OVER ALL BUT THE LAKES AND  
PENNYRILE REGIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. THE NBM GUSTS SEEM  
REASONABLE IF WE ARE NOT TOO GRUNGED IN. THE NBM HAS HIGH  
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WELL.  
ONCE AGAIN THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SOME REASONABLE AMOUNT OF  
SUNSHINE.  
 
AS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM, THE GUIDANCE  
SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED A BIT ON THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT TIMING ISSUES STILL REMAIN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO  
SHOW A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER SYSTEM AND FASTER  
TIMING, WHILE THE GFS AND CMC ARE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOWER.  
 
THE MASSIVE CAP WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO BUST THROUGH GIVEN THE  
VERY MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE NBM IS STILL  
STRUGGLING TO GET A 60F DEWPOINT INTO THE AREA. THAT LAST SHOT  
OF COLD AIR REALLY SCOURED OUT THE GULF. SO, IT WILL TAKE A LOT  
OF FORCING TO ERADICATE THE CAP AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH  
INSTABILITY LEFT WHEN IT IS GONE. THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN  
THREATS SEEM RATHER MUTED AT THIS TIME. THE FORCING COULD  
INCREASE SOME, BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT AS LIKELY TO  
CHANGE FOR THE BETTER. THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR FOR ANY CONVECTION TO WORK WITH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO,  
JUST TO BE SAFE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAST MOTION OF THE STORMS  
ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.  
 
THE NBM THROWS IN SOME CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW  
AMPLITUDE SYSTEM TO MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS VERY  
LOW, AS THIS SYSTEM IS NOT SHOWING UP AS MUCH IN THE 12Z  
GUIDANCE. EXPECT POPS TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE MAIN  
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE  
DAY AND THE WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SHAWKEY  
DISCUSSION...DRS  
AVIATION...KC  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab MO Page Main Text Page