352
FXUS63 KPAH 011123
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE, WITH AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT HEAT INDICES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER.
- LOW END CHANCES (20 TO 30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES INCREASING TO 30 TO 50% FOR
THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD AND INTO OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
40 TO 60%.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER OUR REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE AND EVEN UPPER 70S, LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HEAT
INDICES WILL BE MOSTLY BE IN THE 105 TO 112+ DEGREE RANGE. ON
THURSDAY, THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO MAINLY WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST AND STARTING TO WEAKEN,
20-30% CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA.
BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALLOWING A COUPLE OF TROFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50% SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES DOWN TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MOVE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION, BUT THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 40-60% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. HEAT
INDICES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 100 DEGREES AS
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONABLE READINGS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ANY LINGERING MVFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH FEW-SCT040 CUMULUS
BETWEEN 15Z-01Z, AND MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AFTER 07Z.
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS AFTER 14Z,
THEN LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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