445
FXUS63 KPAH 011735
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE LAST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION,
BUT CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG WITH HEALTHY NORTH BREEZES. CLEARING
SHOULD BEGIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
SUNRISE, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE NORTH FETCH AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTED, WENT
WITH LOWER MOS DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
DROP BELOW 40% OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY, MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE ALLOWS A COMPACT UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
KEEPS IT JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND IN WEST
KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH IF ANYTHING REACHES THE AREA AT ALL.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE THE NBM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWS TONIGHT WHEN THE COOLER CONSMOS NUMBERS
WERE MIXED IN. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING, WE MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE THERE WOULD BE ANY CONCERN
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021
THE LONG TERM PROVIDES A LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE QUAD
STATE. INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST AND
A RIDGE FORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST, MIGRATING TO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE LONGEST MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, THE QUAD STATE IS LIKELY TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE QUAD STATE AT THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM MAKING A
WARMING TREND FAVORED FOR THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP BEING INTRODUCED IN A LATER FORECAST
PACKAGE INVOLVES A WEAK DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEEKEND FRONT.
THIS FEATURE ENTERS THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHWEST AS IT DIVES
TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
BACKBUILDING OF THE TROUGH AND COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS DISTURBANCE DRY. NBM CONTINUES TO
EXCLUDE POPS FROM THIS, AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN AS SUCH FOR
NOW. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DO HAVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAVE LIGHT AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON MAR 1 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...RJP
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