718  
FXUS63 KPAH 142316  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
616 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER THE  
REGION TODAY, MAKING FOR A RATHER NICE DAY OUT THERE AS DEW POINTS  
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S, WHICH WAS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE  
HUMIDITY. THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT  
EAST TONIGHT, AS A SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
ON SUNDAY, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, SO  
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.  
EVEN AFTER A RATHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY  
CLIMB ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS  
BECOME SOUTHERLY. SO, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON  
SUNDAY, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S JUST ABOUT  
EVERYWHERE. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE  
COMING UP WITH WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THAT WILL START ON  
SUNDAY AND WILL STAY WITH US FOR A WHILE.  
 
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT SITUATED JUST TO OUR  
NORTH. THE FRONT HAS BEEN PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE  
AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUDINESS WITH IT.  
HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION  
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CHANCE DEFINITELY IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH  
TO WARRANT INCLUSION INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. WILL  
RAISE POPS BUT CONTINUE TO KEEP IT UNMENTIONABLE FOR NOW. GIVEN THE  
DECENT DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ON MONDAY, WOULD EXPECT MORE CLOUDS  
THAN ARE CURRENT FORECAST, SO WILL LIKELY BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A BIT.  
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUATION OF LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS ON  
MONDAY AND THAT DOES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST DATA. GIVEN  
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT REACH  
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR HEAT INDICES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS MARKED BY THE  
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS,  
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE WFO PAH FORECAST  
AREA ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS.  
 
THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL DEPICTION OF SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY IMPACTING THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WESTERN  
U.S. TROUGH, CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z SATURDAY DETERMINISTIC GFS IS THE MOST  
ROBUST WITH SHIFTING THE TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION BY THURSDAY, INCREASING THE BAROCLINIC RESPONSE INTO THE  
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
AT THIS POINT, FORECAST PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE NBM (NATIONAL  
BLEND OF MODELS), THE EUROPEAN (ECMWF), AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE  
CANADIAN (CMCNH) GUIDANCE WITH THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS A MUCH DRIER  
SOLUTION, WHICH KEEPS THE RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WFO PAH  
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALLOWED FOR SOME SMALL POP  
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN  
ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR  
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, COMMON DIURNAL RANGES OF 25 DEGREES OR  
MORE WILL BE COMMON NEXT WEEK. WITH LOWERED DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING  
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT COULD  
BE A TOUCH OF EARLY MORNING FOG IN PRONE LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GM  
SHORT TERM...CW  
LONG TERM...SMITH  
AVIATION...GM  
 
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