077
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) PERSIST
TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A PADUCAH TO MT. VERNON, IL
LINE
- A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-70%) IS ANTICIPATED
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND/HAIL)
EXISTS ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.
- DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A FAIRLY SHARP THETA-E GRADIENT SITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AT POPLAR BLUFF AND
UPPER 50S AT OWENSBORO. BUILDING, BUT STILL MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST MID TO LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS A
SHORTWAVE SPINS TO THE NORTHWEST SLOWLY INCREASING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS MODEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SEEMS TO BE AIDING
IN SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS THAT ARE
TRACKING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AT THE RATE OF MOISTURE RETURN
SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR/RAP ARE STILL PRETTY INSISTENT IT
FALLS APART AS IT MOVES EAST DUE TO DIMINISHING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH PROBABILITY THEY HAVE ENOUGH TO WORK
WITH TO KEEP GOING TO CONTINUE LOWER END POPS FROM PADUCAH
WESTWARD. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WHERE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE BUT SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. IF ANY SEVERE
EMERGES THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF VERY BRIEF PULSE
HAIL OR LOCALIZED WIND.
GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND VERY SLOWLY TRACKING IT SOUTHWEST.
CAMS SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF BOWING SEGMENT/ORGANIZATION AS
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MODEST CLOUD COVER A
STRONG RADIATION INVERSION LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY (WITH FOG
POTENTIAL AS WEAK MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES). IF STORM
ORGANIZATION CAN GROW SUFFICIENTLY THOUGH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS
SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE HRRR/HREF TYPE GUIDANCE SWEEPS CONVECTION THROUGH IN THE
MORNING OVERTURNING THE AIRMASS BUT THE GFS THROWS A WEAK
WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER US IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INITIATES CONVECTION ON A MORE FRESH AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH 3000
J/KG OF MLCAPE AND SUFFICIENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE DEEPER
LAYERS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. I KIND OF FORSEE A LITTLE BIT OF
A MIX OF BOTH WITH MAYBE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED LINE OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION THAT LEAVES BEHIND A STILL FAIRLY SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS THAT ALLOWS FOR SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE NW/SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY BELOW
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL WITH THE
HIGHEST RISK OF THAT IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
BY MONDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
SWEEPS THE HUMID AIRMASS OUT AND WE GET INTO A VERY BLOCKY
OVERALL PATTERN OVERHEAD AND TOO THE WEST THAT STILL LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERAL DAYS OF STABLE AND DRY WEATHER WITH
REASONABLE HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CONVECTION IS THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY. A CLUSTER OF
STORMS SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS IS BEING MONITORED TO POSSIBLY
APPROACH CGI/MVN AND VICINITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER THE AIRMASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH
BY THEN TO SUSTAIN IT AS IT MOVES EAST, BUT IT APPEARS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SHORT PROB30 WINDOW AT A FEW SPOTS. A MORE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING/BACK-BUILDING WHICH MAY CAUSE EXTENDED IMPACTS AT
TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILING THUNDER WITH LOWER VIS IN TEMPO
GROUPS BUT MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ORGANIZED
THE ACTIVITY GETS. TRAILING RAIN AND AT LEAST SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WOULD BE LIKELY BEHIND THIS TIL 16-18Z OR SO. BEST
CHANCES ARE AT CGI/MVN/PAH AND WEST OF THERE WITH LOWER PROBS AT
EVV/OWB AND NEIGHBORING AIRFIELDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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