641
FXUS63 KPAH 230645
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VARIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE
AROUND 1.5-2.5" IN SOUTHERN IL, AND LESS THAN 1.5" ELSEWHERE.
- SUMMER HEAT RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS REACH UP
INTO THE 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES OVER 105 ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
EXPECT A PLEASANT AND DRY DAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOMORROW HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH ONLY A
~20% CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN SEMO.
BY THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND MORE ACTIVE.
POPS INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A WIDESPREAD 50-60% AND MAX
OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AT 60-80% (SOUTH TO NORTH). THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEADS TO DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 70S. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN IL AT ~1.5-2.5" AND
LESS THAN 1.5" FURTHER SOUTH.
SUMMER RETURNS AS TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY
ONWARD AND REACH THE 90S BY SUNDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE ON
SUNDAY (APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL). MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS PUSH
UP INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE AND MAY THEREFORE NEED HEAT ADVISORY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE IS COMPLETE, BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH
WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT AT NIGHT WITH THE PARENT TROF SLOWLY
CLEARING THE TN VALLEY. RESTRICTED BASES WILL BE MAINTAINED AND
TDD'S WILL BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED SHOULD THEIR SPREAD TIGHTEN, SOME
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS AND LOWER BASES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS WRITING. A RETURN TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES, IF IT
DOES NOT OCCUR EARLIER, WILL COME TO FRUITION TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...
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