221
FXUS63 KPAH 150447
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
COMING DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL.
- A WET PATTERN IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FUNNELING WARM AIR OUR WAY
TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW. LATER ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH BRINGING BREEZIER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME VERY
MINOR (15-20%) CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE KY PENNYRILE.
HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALOFT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS SOME PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REGIONS). RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.25". WITH THE BOUNDARY
STILL IN PLACE, SMALLER RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) REMAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. POPS START RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SFC LEE LOW FORMS OVER WESTERN KS. AS
THIS SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, POPS INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH TOTALS IN SEMO BEING
AROUND 2-2.5" AND ELSEWHERE BEING AROUND 1-1.75".
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
PICKING UP AT 1 TO 2 KFT WITH NEAR CALM CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...JGG
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