131
FXUS63 KPAH 071111
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
511 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING.
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN RAIN CHANCES COME BACK
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS MESSY AFTER WEDNESDAY DUE
TO MODEL DISCREPANCY.
- TUESDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MEASURABLE (AT LEAST
0.01") BUT LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING (CHANCES FOR SEEING 32+ IS LESS THAN 40%). AS A SFC
HIGH MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY OUR WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TODAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN MORE ON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH HELPS TO BRING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT HITTING
50 LOOKS LESS LIKELY IN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM (POSSIBLY DUE TO
SNOWPACK ESTIMATES) BUT THIS IS COMING IN BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
THE ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF REACHING 50
DEGREES FOR MOST OF SEMO AND THE KY PURCHASE REGION ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND
WITH 50S A NEAR GUARANTEE FOR ALL BUT THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE WHICH
HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 50. THE WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY) WITH 60S NEARLY CERTAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE BOARD.
A SHORTWAVE TROF ROLLS ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT AND RAIN TO THE AREA. POPS ARE IN
THE 50-65% RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 45-65% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
(AT LEAST 0.01") TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LESS THAN 25% CHANCE OF SEEING
0.25" PER THE NBM ENSEMBLE. SO WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST (0.15" TO 0.40") MAY VERY LIKELY BE TOO HIGH.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO A TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE EC/EPS AND THE
GFS/GEFS. THE EC/EPS IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIP CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING VERSUS THE GFS/GEFS WHICH IS FASTER WITH PRECIP TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SO IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE TWO ARE BEING ADDED
TOGETHER IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF FORECAST.
THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE ALSO LEADS TO LATE WEEK UNCERTAINTY. THE
SLOWER EURO SOLUTIONS LEAVE A BOUNDARY IN THE REGION WHICH SERVES AS
A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WEAK PRECIP CHANCES (15-20%) THAT THEN RAMP
BACK UP THURSDAY EVENING (35-45%) INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS COMPARED TO
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MAINLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT BOTH
THE EPS AND GEFS SHOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BUT THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS ARE MAINLY
DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE STEADY TODAY OUT AT AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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