186
FXUS63 KPAH 231108
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
608 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEEK WILL BEGIN ON A DRY NOTE, BUT SMALL CHANCES OF HEAT
OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER 80S EARLY THIS WEEK
TO THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE TROUGH TO
THE NE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SEMO. HERE, SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALMOST DAILY, BRINGING 15-30% CHANCES
OF SHOWERS, TYPICALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WILL INCREASING BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY, WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED START IN THE LOW 80S TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME MORE HUMID, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AS WELL. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LINGERING SHALLOW FOG INVOF CGI, PAH, AND MVN WILL DIMINISH BY
13Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
STEADY NW AROUND 4-8 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4-5KFT. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
RELAX TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER PASSING HIGH CIRRUS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...AZ/DWS
DISCUSSION...AZ
AVIATION...AZ/DWS
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