366
FXUS64 KLIX 091037
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR THE WHOLE AREA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE
TOMORROW AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS.
- IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) FOR THE WHOLE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
STARTING MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM
ALONG I-59 AND WESTWARD WHERE WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES.
- AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY, GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING ON SUNDAY, AS THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
DANGEROUS FOR SMALL VESSELS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24HRS MAKES. THE INITIAL FRONT IS NOW SLOWING TO
A STALL TONIGHT FROM SE OKLAHOMA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAGLE PASS, TX.
IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A WIND SHIFT, YOU WON'T FIND IT BUT THE DEW
PT DROP OF 20F FROM 60F TO 40F OVER A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 50 MILES
GIVES IT AWAY. THIS IS WHERE THE SH/TS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NE ALONG IT. THE WIND SHIFT WILL CATCH UP WITH IT LATER TONIGHT
THOUGH. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM NEAR SHREVEPORT TO LERADO TX
BY DAYLIGHT FRI. THIS IS ROUGHLY 150 MILES FARTHER EAST THAN 24
HRS AGO. THEREFORE, ALL OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALSO BE FOUND
FARTHER EAST. THE 850MB PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS NOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OUR AREA FRI
MORNING. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP
TONIGHT IN LOUISIANA. STORM CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKEN. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD PLAY NASTY
TONIGHT/MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MCCOMB TO BATON
ROUGE BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT WOULD BE MORE THAN ONE OR
TWO THAT BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. INSTABILITY THEN SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA STARTING AROUND DAYLIGHT FRI AND COMPLETES
BY NOON FRI. THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND OF SH/TS MOVES NORTH
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE NEW STORMS BEGIN TO FORM AND FLOW NE
ALONG THE STALLED PERSTITANT PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRI. THERE IS STILL NO STRONG OVERTURN AND LIFT
THROUGH H7 THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NEAR WILKINSON CO. BUT THIS CHANGES QUICKLY AS WE APPROACH NOON
FRI. AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTRODUCE BETTER
SEVERE WX VALUES, THIS LINE SHOULD START TO BRECOME ACTIVE AS WE
APPROACH NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
A LOCATION BETWEEN BTR AND MSY WHEN IT BEGINS TO LIGHT UP AND THIS
IS WHERE THE FIRST ISSUE WITH SEVERE WX WILL BE FOUND. THE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRIME THIS AREA WITH ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING, BUT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE SAME PLACES, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL SPOTS THAT
FLOOD. SOME OF THE SEVERE WX VARIABLES WEAKEN BY SUNDOWN, BUT THE
LINE WILL REMAIN PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THESE SAME PLACES
TRANSITIONING THIS FROM A SEVER STORMS AND FLOODING TO MOSTLY
FLOODING SITUATION. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND IT IS
PLACED VERY STRATEGICALLY. THIS WILL REMAIN AS IS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND DAYLIGHT SAT
ENDING THE FLOODING AND STORM THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT EVENING. COLD DRY AIR WILL
SETTLE IN AFTER FROPA BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT WITH
WINDS STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM FREEZING, BUT THIS WON'T BE THE
CASE SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REFUSE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S SUNDAY
THEN FALL TO AROUND 30F NORTH AND 40F SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COOL DAY ON MONDAY AND MAYBE NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT. THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS
FOR TUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. PROB30 AND
TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LOWERED
VISIBILITIIES AND CEILINGS DUE TO A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SHIFTS GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES ARE LIKELY AS
WELL IN THE FORECAST AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOG WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR SOME COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 1SM.
THE WINDS ARE INCREASING DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS DOMINATING
THE GULF SLIDING NORTHEAST. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
WINDOW OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN WINDS,
AN SCS WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR NOW UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME LIKELY
STRONG TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, WE WILL HAVE A
WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF WHAT IS CALLED CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE OUTER WATERS (20-60NM) AND WEST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 68 40 55 / 90 80 10 0
BTR 64 69 43 58 / 90 80 10 0
ASD 64 72 43 59 / 80 90 10 0
MSY 66 73 48 59 / 80 90 10 0
GPT 64 72 46 58 / 80 90 20 0
PQL 64 74 43 59 / 70 90 20 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LAZ036-037-039-046>048-
056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MSZ069>071-077-083-086.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TE
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