562
FXUS64 KLIX 080544
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
- BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, WITH THE MAIN
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MONTANA, WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WAS
JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST WAS WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM OHIO TO EAST TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MAINLY IN THE 40S, BUT A FEW
SPOTS HAD DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA DOESN'T APPEAR TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, A SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF
IT WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. THIS
WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE
BIT BY MONDAY, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT OF A RELATIVE
TERM AT THIS POINT, AS THE CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
0.3 INCHES RANKS AT ABOUT THE THE PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, THOSE NUMBERS ARE STILL AT 0.7 INCHES OR
LESS, WHICH DOESN'T EVEN RISE TO THE MEDIAN/MEAN (0.75 INCHES).
THAT PRETTY MUCH RELEGATES THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO A CLOUD
AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BY MONDAY OR SO. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
NEAR THE COAST.
GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH REPORTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE
NBM THE PERCENTILE WAS ACTUALLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF/NBM OPERATIONAL NUMBERS, BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES.
IF THAT TREND CONTINUES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT
ON MONDAY. I'D NOTE THAT THE NBM THE PERCENTILE WOULD GIVE ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF TOUCHING 80
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN
WELL PROTECTED AREAS, AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY MORNING
COULD BE 8-10F WARMER, AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 5F WARMER ON TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO THE 1.0 TO 1.2 RANGE
TUESDAY, WHICH IS AROUND THE THE PERCENTILE. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR REMAIN VERY MEAGER. IF THERE'S ANY THUNDER AT ALL WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE, IT WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY, AND WAS SORELY TEMPTED TO
OMIT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
TUESDAY REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND THE TUESDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, THERE'S NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF A
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE UNTIL PERHAPS AROUND NEXT SATURDAY, WHEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WITH THE
SATURDAY SHORTWAVE, PRIMARILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THAT'S AT
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE, BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES NEXT
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES...VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
NBM THE PERCENTILE WOULD SIGNAL MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE THE PERCENTILE, WHICH HAS
BEEN MORE REPRESENTATIVE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, WOULD HAVE AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S ON
MULTIPLE DAYS. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS
ON SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE THREAT OF RECORDS WOULD
PROBABLY BE ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. SOUTH WINDS AND/OR SEA
BREEZES WOULD CUT OFF HEATING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM CST ALONG
THE COAST, AND COULD EVEN COOL THINGS, AS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT MOST NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S. THAT
MIGHT LIMIT HIGHS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 70.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE
MAY START SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO SUNSET SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR FOG WILL INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST OBSERVATION
POINTS, AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OR ALL
OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE MORE FAVORABLE WIND/WAVE
CONDITIONS FOR MARINE OPERATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS, FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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