994
FXUS64 KLIX 201014
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE OBVIOUSLY EXTREMELY HIGH WITH A SHIELD OF
RAINFALL ALMOST STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY AT THIS POINT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST AND HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
A LATE WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH RAIN COVERAGE AND
EVEN MORE SO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS REMAINING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
ZONES ON SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
RESULT WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD. FRONT COULD STALL OR SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED. HEDGED THOSE
BETS AT THIS TIME AND WENT WITH GENERALLY WITH CHANCE POPS. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING AND SOME FOG IS INTERMINGLED
BETWEEN THE RAIN SHOWERS, EITHER OF WHICH ARE LOWERING
VISIBILITIES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
AND COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 20-25 KNOTS AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS
BY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME
OF THE WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES BUT FOR CONSISTENCY AND WITH THE
CONSIDERATION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE IF NOT INTO GALE
FORCE EVEN ACROSS THOSE AREAS, SIMPLY WENT WITH THE GALE WARNING
ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE TIDAL LAKES
BY THEN BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE A RISE IN SE WINDS BY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
WE GET FARTHER OUT IN TIME.
DECISION SUPPORT
DSS CODE: BLUE.
DEPLOYED: NONE.
ACTIVATION: NONE.
ACTIVITIES: FORECAST SUPPORT FOR STENNIS SPACE CENTER
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
GALE WARNINGS OVER COASTAL WATERS
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE
OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF
NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 55 34 51 32 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 56 35 52 32 / 100 10 0 0
ASD 59 35 53 33 / 100 20 0 0
MSY 61 41 53 40 / 100 20 0 0
GPT 59 37 52 36 / 100 20 0 0
PQL 59 36 54 34 / 100 20 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ532-534.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page