434
FXUS64 KLIX 172254
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOMB TO SLIDELL
TO PASCAGOULA. LOWS COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 29/30 AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR 1-3
HOURS.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
IT WAS A QUIET AND COOL NIGHT LAST NIGHT BUT LOWS DIDN'T QUITE DROP
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO STILL HAVING SOME WIND
OUT THERE AS KHDC VWP SHOWED WINDS STILL AT OR ABOVE 20 KTS AT THE
FIRST GATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND UP UNTIL SUNRISE. THIS LIKELY
PROVIDED ENOUGH MIXING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN THAT WON'T BE THE
CASE TONIGHT. WE STILL HAD A LIGHT FREEZE IN MANY AREAS BUT LOWS
WERE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN FORECAST. AS FOR TODAY, IT HAS BEEN
QUITE THE NICE ONE WITH THE ONLY REAL THING NEEDED WAS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
BY 18Z.
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE BENIGN WITH THE ONLY REAL IMPACT BEING
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE FOR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
SYNOPTICALLY THE CONUS IS BEING DOMINATED BY A L/W OVER THE EASTERN
HALF AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS PLACED THE
LOWER MS VALLEY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST AND STRETCHES NORTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR SURFACE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED OVER THE CONUS OUTSIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN CANADA. ONE IS EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY WHILE A WEAKER
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA PROVINCES BORDER. AS THAT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE COAST
CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN WINDS HAVE RELAXED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LEADING TO OUR RATHER NICE,
COOL, DRY, AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.
AS FOR TONIGHT. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW STILL WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY
MOISTURE RETURN YET AND LL TEMPS ARE NOT QUITE MODERATING YET
EITHER. THIS IS KEEPING US WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY AND
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN 3RD OF THE CWA. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL NIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. WE
WILL STILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE IF NOT BECOMING COMPLETELY CALM
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE A RATHER DECENT STARTING
POINT THIS EVENING WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL, HIGH PRESSURE
LEADING TO WINDS BEING LIGHT IF NOT CALM, AND NO REAL CLOUD COVER TO
WORRY ABOUT (NOT EVEN CIRRUS). THE RAIN WASN'T THAT HEAVY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WITH THE WINDS YESTERDAY, A LOT OF SUN, AND DRY AIR THERE
LIKELY ISN'T ANY RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE THAT WOULD HURT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. AS FOR THE DRY AIR THAT WAS JUST
MENTIONED, DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PLUMMETED ACROSS THE
REGION DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20 FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
MCB HAS DROPPED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 8. SO THIS ALL SUGGESTS A VERY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND HONESTLY HISTORICALLY THE
SECOND NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT IS THE BETTER RAD COOLING NIGHT AND
THEN COMBINE THAT WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST YET
WEDGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE GULF AND THE FEELING
HERE IS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS GETTING COLDER TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE DRAINAGE AREAS AROUND THE PEARL AND
PASCAGOULA RIVERS. WITH THAT THE THINKING IS THE NBM IS TOO WARM AND
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE, THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THAT WE USED A BLEND OF 1 PART NBM 2 PARTS
NBM25 FOR ALL OF THE AREA AND THEN USED A 1:4 ACROSS THE DRAINAGE
AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS PROVIDING A LOW OF NEAR 30
AROUND PQL, BXA, AND ASD AND THEN UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
SOUTHSHORE. WITH THAT WE DID ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
FAR NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT.
AS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, THE BENIGN FORECAST CONTINUES.
WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAY EVEN SEE A WEAK IMPULSE
SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS
WILL PROVIDE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS. WE
WILL SEE SOME MODERATION WITH H925 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 7-9C.
THAT WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HOWEVER NBM IS
ADVERTISING SOME WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 70. THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
OVERZEALOUS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE HIGHS ANY. ALL MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE NEAR 60 TO MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE DOES CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST BUT IT WILL STILL
DOMINATE THE REGION LEADING TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT BEFORE WE
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WE REMAIN RATHER
QUIET. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AREN'T SUGGESTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES FOR PRACTICALLY THE NEXT 10 DAYS. GIVEN THE RATHER DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS, THEIR ENSEMBLES, AND
THE NBM SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE.
WE START OUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW STILL ON THURSDAY AND EVEN AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST GETS
SUPPRESSED AND TRIES TO NUDGE EASTWARD ACROSS TX WE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH OUT ANY REAL
MOISTURE RECOVERY STILL THOSE IMPULSES WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY NOTHING MORE THAN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. OUR SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
OUR COLD AIRMASS WILL BE SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY BUT WE WILL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY. AS THAT HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND WE WILL FINALLY START TO SEE SOME RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH LIKELY BACK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLY EVEN MID 80S.
NEXT WEEK AS WE LOOK TO POSSIBLE BREAK OUT INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND
POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOTHER NATURE SAYS OTHERWISE
WITH A RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS PLACING
THE AREA BACK UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS PUT A HARD STOP ON THE
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN THE MID LVLS AND THUS HURT ANY RAIN POTENTIAL
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND START TO SLIDE
EAST AND LIKELY WEDGING INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS
RELAXING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK TO THE NORTHEAST
LEADING TO GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE
WINDS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATER LATE TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE START TO
SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF BEFORE
IT FINALLY BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY AND THEN
A SLOW BUT STEADY TURN TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (ONSHORE
FLOW) THIS WEEKEND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW WAVES/SEAS 2-3
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ039-079.
GM...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ070-071-
077-083>085.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...CAB
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