165
FXUS64 KLIX 061129 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
529 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
PLAN AHEAD FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT'S TOO SOON TO SAY
WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ITS POTENTIAL. RESIDENTS
OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THAT OBSERVED
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME TO TAKE HOLD WITH THE END RESULT
BEING A WARMER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
APPROACH OR EVEN BREAK RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT
WILL FALL TOWARD THESE DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM
TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FOG WILL TURN
DENSE AT TIMES. THIS IS MOST TRUE TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG IMPACT THE
REGION.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN AS A
FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TAKING HOLD
OF THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE A JET STREAK PASSES
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED AMOUNT OF OMEGA
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP, BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 700MB. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASED WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE FOG POTENTIAL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEPER POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
REGION WILL FIND ITSELF BENEATH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO
45 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH, AND THIS WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT INCREASED DEEP LAYER FORCING OVER THE REGION. THE
ONE DIFFERENCE FROM THURSDAY IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AS THE MID-LEVELS BOTH COOL AND MOISTEN. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 700 AND 1000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY, THE AMPLE
FORCING IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT SOME DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
NORTH OF I-12 IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME UPDRAFT TILTING AND ROTATION IS LIKELY AS
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RANGES NEAR 50 KNOTS AND STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 150 M2/S2. THE END RESULT WILL BE SOME
MID-LEVEL MESO-CYLCONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS AND MORE
PERSISTENT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE TILT OF THE STORMS. I
AM MOST CONCERNED WITH A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORMING
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THAT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME LOCALLY
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT FIRE UP.
THE SEVERE THREAT WINDOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH.
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
QUICKLY CLEAR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL ALSO MOVE IN WITH HIGHS RUNNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA, WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10/12 CORRIDOR, BUT A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS ARE ONGOING FOR MOST AIRPORTS. MS GULF
COAST TERMINALS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED UP, BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
REDUCTIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER ON
IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT, MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DROPPING INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGES AND
PERHAPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESIDING OVER NEW. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEA FOG TO FORM IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND TIDAL
LAKES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF LESS THAN 2 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL RISE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO
3 TO 5 FEET. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY,
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND ALSO INCREASE
INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 60 78 59 / 0 10 0 0
BTR 80 62 80 62 / 0 10 0 0
ASD 79 60 78 59 / 0 10 0 10
MSY 79 63 79 62 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 73 61 72 60 / 0 10 0 10
PQL 74 60 74 60 / 0 10 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>058-071-076-079>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ069>071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page