081
FXUS64 KLIX 010523
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE NEW YEARS
MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR BEFORE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY, A VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXISTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY INTO
SATURDAY.
- BEYOND SATURDAY, LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO FLORIDA, AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THAT PUTS THE
LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE GULF AND WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST
OF HOUSTON. AT MID-EVENING, MOST TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S, BUT
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY, WITH REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
REPORTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE.
THAT'S IN THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS
DURING THE DAY, AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY, EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE, APPROACHING THE AREA BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE, AND ISN'T LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE WITH WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RESPOND, INCREASING TO
ABOUT 1.2 INCHES, AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE, BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS,
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY (PRIOR TO NOON), WITH A VERY LOW END THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULDN'T BE SIGNIFICANT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, PROBABLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND QUICKLY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S. MORNING LOWS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY MILDER FRIDAY MORNING, UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER, WELL INTO THE 70S. VERIFICATION FROM
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE ONE THAT ACTUALLY
PRODUCES A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ENDS ANY THREAT OF RAINFALL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE AREA IS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION BEYOND NOON SATURDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR 0.4 INCHES BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, AND
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGIC MEANS FOR EARLY JANUARY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH UPPER RIDGING REBUILDING OVER THE GULF.
MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT EVEN CONFIDENT OF THAT AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE'S NO REAL COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO HIGHS/LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO RETURN TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR NOTED THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 10
DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN WOULD BE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES DUE
TO SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES OR LOCAL FIREWORKS. THERE WERE A
FEW AGRICULTURAL CONTROLLED BURNS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WERE REFLECTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT
KBTR AND KMSY, AND PRODUCED WEAK ECHOES ON KHDC RADAR. HOWEVER,
HAVE NOT NOTED ANY ECHOES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, OR
INDICATIONS IN OBSERVATIONS. OF COURSE, WITH IT BEING NEW YEARS
EVE/NEW YEARS MORNING, BRIEF LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES DUE
TO SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS WOULDN'T BE UNHEARD OF, EITHER, BUT WOULD
BE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND 07Z OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON SUNDAY WITH FAVORABLE
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT POINT. DEW POINTS FORECAST OVER
LAND EARLY NEXT WEEK DON'T REALLY SIGNAL FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT,
BUT TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WINTER JUSTIFY
MONITORING FOR FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 49 73 59 / 0 5 30 50
BTR 69 51 77 61 / 0 5 30 30
ASD 68 50 75 61 / 0 0 20 60
MSY 69 53 75 64 / 0 0 20 50
GPT 66 51 70 61 / 0 0 20 70
PQL 67 48 72 59 / 0 0 10 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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