137
FXUS64 KLIX 062315 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
615 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY.
- TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER THIS WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH, BUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, COASTAL
FLOODING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
COLD FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
FOCUSING ON THIS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY, AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER LAND. THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE TODAY AND TOMORROW ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES COULD SEE
A LITTLE GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AT NORMAL OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AL92, LIKELY SOON TO BE NAMED ISAIAS. SATELLITE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT IT HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER. STILL NO CLOSED CENTER
YET BUT IT IS GETTING CLOSE. DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY FORMS
WILL REALLY DETERMINE HOW THE TRACK ENDS UP. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE TRACK ENDING UP CLOSER TO OUR AREA IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI, WHILE THE AI MODELS
(E.G. GOOGLE DEEPMIND) TAKES IT CLOSER TO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
WHICH ONE OF THESE TWO IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING IF IT ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE IT CAN BREAK OUT
A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE EAST, WHILE IF IT WAS WEAKER IT WOULD
REMAIN MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, THERE
ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND COASTAL FLOODING. MOST GUIDANCE HAS IT
STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO LOW CAT HURRICANE BUT
DUE TO A LOT OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF,
WE WOULD SEE MORE OF A LOPSIDED HURRICANE, SO IF WE CAN STAY ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THAT, IT MAY SLIGHTLY MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN OR
TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER RAIN BANDS DEFINITELY COULD DROP VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL SO GENERALLY AGREEING WITH WPC'S CURRENT
FORECAST OF AROUND 3-6 IN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (EAST
OF I-55). COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH WATER
GETTING PUSHED NORTHWARD CURRENTLY BY THE DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH WE
ARE ENTERING A NEAP TIDE CYCLE WHICH MIGHT HELP KEEP THE MAX
HEIGHT ON THESE DOWN A BIT. SO OVERALL, STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND MORE DETAILS SHOULD START TO GET CLEARER ONCE
FORMATION ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ENE WINDS.
THE MORE MODERATE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
OVERALL THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A COLD
FRONT DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, HOWEVER STARTING LATE
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IT WILL EXPAND TO ALL OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. BOTH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 30-35 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 9
TO 12 ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TO WATCH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534>536-
554-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ534>536-554-
557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ543-551-553-570-572.
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...BL
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