119
FXUS64 KLIX 071107 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
507 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- 1ST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PLAN AHEAD FOR
POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS.
- NEXT CONCERN IS THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT POTENT STORMS SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SPC CURRENTLY
HAS A 15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
- LAST TOPIC IS HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 AND THIS COULD
TEST SOME RECORDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING A FEW ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES AS
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER
THE REGION WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED WITH A STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME REMAINING IN PLACE. IN THE LOW LEVELS,
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OFF THE GULF IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY
WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MOST OF THE REGION BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
ONLY AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE MID 70S. THESE READINGS WILL BE
VERY NEAR OR EVEN EXCEED THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EACH
NIGHT, AND CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR EACH NIGHT. TONIGHT, ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER
TO SUNRISE AND DENSE FOG SHOULD BE VERY PATCHY DUE TO LESS
FAVORABLE WINDS AND THE PASSAGE OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE DUE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. FOG
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL THE MOST.
THE SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM,
THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH
DEEPER POOL OF GULF MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE REGION, AND THIS
WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES UP TO THE DAILY MAXIMUM OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS, THE MID-LEVELS WILL BEGIN
TO COOL SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GREATER OVERALL INSTABILITY. A BROAD REGION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LEFT BEHIND BY THE
INITIAL TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL
COMBINE WITH THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
INSUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXTREMELY WARM AS DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONDITIONS BECOME
FAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO MERGE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DESCENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO FORM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FORM ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. AS NOTED ABOVE,
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY MOISTURE LADEN AND LAPSE RATES IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THESE LAPSE RATES SHOULD APPROACH 6.5C/KM. THOSE VALUES INDICATE
A FAIR DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THAT IS CONFIRMED BY MODEL OUTPUT
MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND METRO BATON ROUGE. THESE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER AND LONGER LASTING
UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS THIS
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 200 M2/S2 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS OVER THESE AREAS, PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND POINTS
WEST OF I-59 AND NORTH OF I-10 IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. GIVEN
THESE PARAMETERS, I AM STILL CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE A QLCS
TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT HAS ABILITY TO PRODUCE BRIEF
TORNADOES AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL START TO DIMINISH AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH. HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITH IN A MORE
TYPICAL LINEAR CONVECTIVE FEATURE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH HAVE A MUCH LOWER RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE SIMPLY LESS
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE
POSITIVE TILT OF THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WITH
THE LOW LEVELS COOLING OFF A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, SOME
POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY START TO CLEAR AND DRY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND
FIELD ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS FINALLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DECENT 925MB
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH READINGS OF
AROUND 3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL EASILY COOL INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND
ALONG THE COAST, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
LIKE THE LAST DAY OR TWO CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, MORE VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH A BETTER SIGNAL FOR
FOG THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY, BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT). (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A THREAT OF SOME FOG FORMING OVER THE WATERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT DEWPOINTS ARE RISING SO HIGH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S THAT DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL RISE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL START TO TURN CHOPPY AT
3 TO 6 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. THESE ELEVATED WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 7 TO 10
FEET WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 60 79 64 / 0 0 10 60
BTR 80 62 81 67 / 0 0 10 60
ASD 78 60 78 63 / 0 0 10 40
MSY 78 63 79 66 / 0 0 10 40
GPT 73 61 72 64 / 0 0 10 30
PQL 75 61 75 64 / 0 0 20 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083-086>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG
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