184
FXUS64 KLIX 241955
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
255 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS
AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOME POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HONESTLY CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
BIG ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY MOST IMPACTFUL ROUND OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A LOT OF THIS IS GOING TO BE WATCHING WHAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM.
WE ARE IN A SOMEWHAT EARLY SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE REGION STARTING TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME
SUPPRESSED. ABUNDANT ENERGY IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS ALREADY
QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO SPARK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA AND LIKELY SEVERE STORMS
OVER THAT WAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR US IS CONTINUING TO WATCH THE
COLD POOL FROM THE CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
STARTING TO PUSH INTO MS. THIS IS SLOWING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD POOL CAN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN LA AND
WESTERN MS IS GOING TO BE A BIG KEY FOR TONIGHT. IF AND THIS IS THE
BIG IF, CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE IN THE RED RIVER AREA (WHICH
SHOULD HAPPEN) AND THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS IT WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING THE AREA. TYPICALLY MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR THESE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MCS'S MOVE
AND THEN IF THERE IS A LEFT OVER BOUNDARY (WHICH THERE WILL BE BUT
DOES IT PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO APPROACH OUR AREA) THAT WILL ALLOW
A MORE FOCUSED PATH FOR IT TO FOLLOW. ONE PROBLEM THIS IS MORE
TYPICAL OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND THAT IS NOT WHAT WE ARE
UNDER. MAYBE A WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BUT THE DEEPER STEERING
CURRENTS FAVOR EAST. CAMS HAS BEEN FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOMETHING TO DRIVE INTO OUR AREA BUT HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE BOARD
FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW GIVEN EVERYTHING WE HAVE BUT
MAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM THE DYING COLD
POOL TO OUR NORTH FEEL THAT WE WILL SEE A POSSIBLE MCS MOVING IN TO
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z AND THEN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IF THE MCS IS
STILL ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE IT WILL MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LIKELY KEEPS THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON NON THE LOWER END. A SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EVERYTHING WILL TAKE MUCH IF NOT
ALL DAY TO REMOVE. IF THE MCS IS ON THE WEAKENING SIDE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE IN IT MAY STILL MOVE THROUGH OR STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT LEAVING A
REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. IF THAT HAPPENS THEN AFTER SOME
HEATING WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NEXT AND POSSIBLE 3RD ROUND OF STORMS COULD BE ANOTHER MCS
ACROSS THE RED RIVER AREA TRYING TO SURGE SOUTHEAST. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE IS SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE IS ALREADY STARTING TO
REBUILD OVER THE TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THAT COULD PLACE
US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A LOT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THAT TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA.
AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OBVIOUSLY TONIGHT THE CONCERN WOULD
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF WE GET THAT WELL DEVELOPED MCS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IT WILL LIKELY SURGE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE
AN UNTAPPED HUMID ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. ML CAPE COULD BE ABOVE 1500
J/KG WITH INCREASING MID LVL FLOW H5 40-45KT AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A SPLITTING JET. IN ADDITION IT LOOKS LIKE A
LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE WILL SETUP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST TX TOWARDS NORTHEAST LA AND WESTERN MS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
THE MCS TO REMAIN POTENT AND CONTINUE AT LEAST TO THE NORTHWESTERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA. AT THAT POINT IT THEN BECOMES HOW LONG CAN THE
MCS MAINTAIN ITSELF. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WEAKENING JUST AFTER
OR AS IT MOVES INTO. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY BE VERY SLOW
AND SUBTLE AT FIRST MEANING IT MAY STILL MOVE THROUGH A 3RD OR HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE THERE IS CLEAR INDICATION. ANOTHER INDICATION THAT
IT IS WEAKENING IS IF THE COLD POOL STARTS TO RUN OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THAT WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER 8/9Z TOMORROW MORNING. GREATEST CONCERN
WOULD BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE MAIN
CONCERN COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING AND GIVEN THE NUMBER OF THINGS
OCCURING IN THE AREA OUTSIDE THAT COULD BE SOMETHING THAT NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM MUCH OF THE FOCUS IS
ON THAT HOWEVER THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AND HAVE SHOWN RATHER GOOD CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY. THIS WOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXCEPT
FOR THE PROBLEM OF WHERE WE SIT WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES RIDING ACROSS THE REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF THAT, SO
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN OR LOOKING JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WAVING AT IT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE STUCK WITH THE NBM UNTIL
WE CAN MOVE ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER. DESPITE THE UNKNOWN WITH
RESPECT TO RAIN THE ONE CONFIDENT THING IS CONTINUED WARM TEMPS.
AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK WE ARE LIKELY DONE WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD TEST RECORDS HIGHS. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED
OVER MEXICO/TX AND SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH EAST OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
RIGHT OVER THE REGION AND MODELS ARE INDICATING MID LVL HGHT BETWEEN
586DM AND 590DM THAT IS IN THE TOP 10% AND IF BY CHANCE WE MEASURE
590DM WITH THE TUESDAY 12Z FLIGHT THAT WOULD BE A RECORD H5 HEIGHT.
THIS HELPS PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER HOT DAYS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST BOTH DAYS.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET BECOME QUITE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN STREAMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TIME THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS
SHOWING THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. ONE PROBLEM THOUGH IS THAT, YES THE RIDGE
IS SUPPRESSED BUT WE MAY STILL BE RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE IMPULSES QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BUT THEY MAY
STILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. /CAB/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE AND
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID ALL TERMINALS
ARE IN VFR STATUS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LONG AS CONVECTION STAYS AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR TERMINALS COMES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND IF AN MCS HAS
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST. IF IT DID DEVELOP THEN THAT MCS WILL
LIKELY SURGE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA BETWEEN 8 AND 13Z MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 8Z POSSIBLY IMPACTING BTR
AND MCB AROUND 8-9Z AND THEN HDC/ASD/MSY/NEW BETWEEN 10-12Z.
THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP TERMINALS INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN
LIFR. IF THERE IS SEVERE STORMS BTR AND MCB HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WITH HDC JUST BEHIND THAT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A VERY EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER SET UP WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY HAZARDOUS
LIMITS AT 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST CONCERN AND
UNKNOWN IS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL TRY TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF STORMS OVER THE RED
RIVER AREA AND THESE MAY TRY MOVE TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. IF THEY DEVELOP THESE SPECIFIC TYPE OF
SYSTEMS NORMALLY DO NOT PLAY WELL WITH THE MODELS AND THEY USUALLY
SURGE SOUTHEAST FASTER AND STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. IF THEY DO
EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AROUND THESE STORMS AND WINDS
MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR 3-6 HOURS BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TAKE BACK OVER. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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