929
FXUS64 KLIX 200533
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO INCREASE WELL INTO THE 90S AND NEAR 100 WITH FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 110 THIS AFTERNOON THEN RANGING FROM
110 TO 115 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. HEAT HEADLINES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE PATH OF
TD2.
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD OUR
GENERAL AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. IMPACTS ARE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE,
BUT AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE POSSIBLE
WITH TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
HEAT WILL STILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WE
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE FCAST SHAKES OUT FOR WED AND THU TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS. ONE OF THESE WILL WIN
OUT SINCE THERE IS NO WAY TO HAVE CLOUDY AND/OR RAINY, WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. BASICALLY, WE WILL BE
TAKING THIS ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
HEAT INDEX NUMBERS PEAKING TUE THEN BACKING OFF BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THU, THESE NUMBERS
BACK OFF BY A MAX OF 10 DEGREES. WHAT THIS TELLS US IS THERE IS
AT LEAST CLOUD COVER ENOUGH TO LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WED AND
THU. IF THIS SYSTEM TAKES THE CURRENT FCASTED TRACK, IT WOULD PUT
THE CENTER OVER THE MISS RIVER MOUTH AT 7PM WED. AT LEAST
LOGICALLY THINKING, THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER WED AND THEREFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE WHERE
THEY ARE FCASTED BY THE NBM FOR WED OR THU. WE HAVE LOWERED HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCASTED PATH OF
TD2 AND RAINFALL PROJECTIONS. PRECIP NUMBERS ARE THE NEXT IN LINE
TO BE LOOKED AT, BUT MAX PERCENTAGES OF 50-60% WILL SUFFICE FOR
NOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST.
THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING IS
DOING SO VERY FAR NORTH THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
SHOWING. THE CURRENT PATH IS THROUGH OHIO THE TO THE EASTER
SEABOARD BY LATE TUE. THIS WILL HAVE A WEAK NORTHWARD PULL ON THE
SYSTEM THEN THE H5 HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER KEEPING THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SHOVING IT FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WITH ANY WEAK SYSTEM LIKE THIS, GUIDANCE WILL BE IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DISSAGREEMENT WITH PATH, SPEED AND ESPECIALLY
STRENGTH. WE WILL NEED TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM'S FCAST A DAY AT A TIME
AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
BY THURSDAY EVENING, TD2/BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED INTO
MEXICO OR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH UPPER RIDGING TO IT'S NORTH. UPPER
TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST US. AT THE SURFACE,
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE AROUND INTERSTATE 20.
THE UPPER RIDGE DOESN'T LOOK TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA TO
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WE'RE UNLIKELY TO SEE A LOT
OF DRYING, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE (2 INCHES) ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENT NBM POP NUMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER
SOLUTION, CLOSER TO THE GFS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WOULD APEAR TO
JUST BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, AS THERE WAS A 5-10F
DIFFERENCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AT QUITE A FEW SITES FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES OF TSRA TODAY BUT WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY.
PROB30 GROUP WILL BE USED TO TIME THIS FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. EVENTUALLY, THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO A TROPICAL STORM. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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