527
FXUS64 KLIX 192023
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
DISCUSSION
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL, THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
ENHANCING THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND LIFTING IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
ALSO, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE UPLIFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFTING IN THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO THIS
EVENT. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE AMOUNT
OF BUOYANCY IN THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BE AVERAGE TO HIGH DUE
TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CAPE BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. THE DYNAMIC FORCING CREATED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL FORCING REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN
THE DIURNAL CONSIDERATIONS, COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOR MORE
EFFICIENT INITIATION. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONGER DOWNBURST
WINDS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL CONDITIONS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL FOR A DAY
OR TWO NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COASTLINES. IF THIS
OCCURS, THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY
WOULD BE MORE APPARENT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AFTER THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THE NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
THE FRONTAL INFLUENCES DIMINISH OVER TIME. MSW
AVIATION
LINGERING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET OVER THE
REGION WITH VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
REPEAT OF CONVECTIVE ONSET PREDOMINANTLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. RR/24
MARINE
CONTINUATION OF STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE COAST BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM POTENTIALLY
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SHORE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RR/24
DECISION SUPPORT
DSS CODE: BLUE.
DEPLOYED: NONE.
ACTIVATION: NONE.
ACTIVITIES: ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE
OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF
NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 74 90 73 89 / 30 40 30 70
BTR 75 90 74 89 / 30 40 30 80
ASD 75 90 74 89 / 30 40 30 70
MSY 77 89 77 89 / 30 60 30 70
GPT 76 88 76 88 / 30 40 30 50
PQL 75 89 74 91 / 30 60 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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