670
FXUS64 KLIX 052351
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
651 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
UPPER LOWS OVER KENTUCKY AND ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER TEXAS, WHICH EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM LARGER SCALE
RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AT MID-
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S. DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, BUT WERE INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S TO AROUND 60
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
ARIZONA UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO
BORDER BY TOMORROW EVENING, AND TO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY FORCE THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT OVER THE GULF NORTHWARD. ISENTROPIC PROCESSES TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE LARGER CONCERN WILL BE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OFF THE GULF
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WERE NEAR 0.7 INCHES THIS MORNING
WILL BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 RANGE BY TOMORROW MORNING, NEAR 1.8
INCHES BY SUNSET, AND COULD BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
STORMS OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR CELL TRAINING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTED EAST-
WEST. IT IS STILL A BIT UNCLEAR AS TO EXACTLY WHERE IN OUR AREA
THIS OCCURS, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TO JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING COMPARATIVELY DRY OVER
THE LAST 10 DAYS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO START CAUSING ISSUES.
IF IT APPEARS THE THREAT WILL BEGIN SOONER, WE'LL ADVANCE THE
START TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT POINT. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE,
AS THE WARM FRONTAL LOCATION WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS OUR WET
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE SEE A BRIEF PAUSE IN
THE RAINFALL. THIS PAUSE LOOKS TO LAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS THURSDAY ROUND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MAKING ITS WAY EAST. WE GET ANOTHER PAUSE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATE IN
THE DAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. BASICALLY THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE RAIN, PAUSE,
RAIN, PAUSE, RAIN. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ROUND, WE COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN BANDS SETUP.
ONE GOOD THING TO COME OUT OF OUR WET PATTERN IS IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT WILL HOWEVER STILL BE VERY HUMID THE ENTIRE PERIOD...SO
NOT A TON OF GOOD NEWS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILST MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND SOME OF THESE
UPDRAFTS WILL GET TALLER AND STRONGER WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. TSRA LINES VIA PROB30S HAVE
BEEN ADDED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OF IMPACTS TO TERMINALS BEGINS CLOSER TO THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING WIDESPREAD REDUCED CIG/VIS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES AND GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT NEW
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
LATER THIS EVENING WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15-20
KNOTS, HIGHEST FOR THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BUT STILL INCREASING
SLIGHTLY FOR ALL AREAS. WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE WESTERN WATERS STARTING AT 4PM THIS AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVENTUALLY AS THE WINDS STAY UP THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOCALIZED
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 59 78 66 79 / 20 80 90 90
BTR 65 81 69 81 / 30 80 90 90
ASD 63 80 68 82 / 20 50 80 90
MSY 70 82 73 81 / 20 60 70 90
GPT 65 80 69 81 / 20 40 70 90
PQL 60 80 67 82 / 20 30 60 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...HL
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