217
FXUS64 KLIX 180932
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2019
DISCUSSION
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WARM AND
HUMID DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10/12 IN SELA AND
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THIS SETUP IS A CONDITIONAL CASE AS
THE INSTABILITY IS NOT ROBUST BUT THE SHEAR IS HIGH. GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW BUT A ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND
BREEZY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL ONLY
BE A GLANCING BLOW AND SHORT LIVED AS WE WARM UP QUICKLY ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE FREEZING TEMPS ON THE NORTHSHORE AND ACROSS
SW MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND MID 30S MORE THAN
LIKELY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE HIGH MODERATES AND SHIFTS
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVC002 FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND THIS
DECK COULD LAST THROUGH 16Z. A CEILING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF BKN010
MAY STAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND FALL BACK TO OVC003 BY
DARK AGAIN. VIS WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. BUT WIND SPEEDS BEING TO RISE SATURDAY
MORNING AND COULD HELP WITH VIS ISSUES. TSRA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH SITE SATURDAY.
MARINE
FOG WILL REMAIN OVER MOST MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING AND MAY BE
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EVEN NOON. WEAK FLOW
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE BY SUNSET AND SHOULD BE UP TO 20+KT BY MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES TO
THE NORTHERN GULF AFTER ITS PASSAGE AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS STARTING AT 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS
SHOULD EASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AGAIN.
DECISION SUPPORT
DSS CODE: BLUE
DEPLOYED: NONE
ACTIVATION: NONE
ACTIVITIES: GALE WATCH AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN; DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 59 64 32 / 10 70 90 10
BTR 70 60 65 33 / 10 60 90 10
ASD 69 60 66 35 / 10 20 90 10
MSY 71 61 67 38 / 10 20 90 10
GPT 65 59 64 36 / 10 20 90 10
PQL 67 59 66 38 / 10 30 90 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-534-
538-550-552-555.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-080>082.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ534-538-
550-552-555.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
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