193
FXUS64 KLIX 161041
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
541 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOW 100S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 110S. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR MONDAY.
INTO THE NEW WEEK AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
IMPACT OF THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ROLLED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100F RANGE
YESTERDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THAT'S NOT SAYING MUCH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN AT LEAST
ONE OF THOSE 2 WEEK PERIODS DURING THE SUMMER THAT WE GET SOME OF
THE HOTTEST MOST OPPRESSIVE WEATHER. THESE 2 WEEK PERIODS CAN
COME TOGETHER OR SEPERATELY AND THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SEPERATED. BUT FOR NOW, WE ARE STUCK WITH IT. THE ONLY RELIEF WILL
BE A COOLING STORM OR TWO THAT DEVELOPS RIGHT AT THE PEAK HEATING
TIMES. STORMS WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND MAINLY
ALONG THE CBRZ BOUNDARY SINCE HEATING ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
BREAK THE STABILITY. THIS MAKES SENSE, SINCE IT IS THIS STABILITY
THAT HELPS CAUSE THE INTENSE HEATING.
WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE TO SEE WHY THIS IS OCCURRING
AND WHAT WILL CAUSE IT TO END. AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, THE OLD
SW UPPER/MID LEVEL CONTINENTAL HIGH HAS MIGRATED OVER THE SE
CONUS CAUSING THE STRONG STABILITY AND ALLOWING THE STRONG
HEATING. THIS STACKED HIGH WILL MEANDER AROUND FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, BUT WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT
THROTTLE TO THE FLOOR. WHAT WILL CAUSE IT TO END IS ALREADY IN
THE WORKS WELL TO THE WEST. AN UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHA WELL TO THE WEST IS GETTING ORGANIZED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY NE INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS THE
HIGH MOVES NE, IT AMPLIFIES INTO THE POLAR JET SHOVING IT NORTH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH IN TURN CAUSES
TROUGHING DOWN STREAM TO THE EAST. I'M SURE THE PICTURE IS NOW
COMING INTO VIEW OF HOW THIS HEAT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK. THE
TROUGHING FORCES THE HIGH OVER US TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN. THIS
IS VERY EVIDENT BY MODELS DROPPING THE CURRENT MID 70S DEW PTS
INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY MID WEEK. A STRONG
BULLSEYE OF LOWER DEW PTS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ACTUALLY SHOWS UP
BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STACKED HIGH. THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IT IS VERY HARD TO FIND DEW PTS IN THE 60S OVER ANY PART OF
THE GULF SO IT IS A TESTIMATE TO HOW STRONG, SUPPRESSIVE AND DRY THIS
STACKED HIGH IS, EVEN IN AN EVENTUAL WEAKENED FORM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE LONG TERM STILL CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT, AT LEAST DURING THE
WORKWEEK, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE ARE
SIGNS OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR RELIEF.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO SPLIT THE RIDGE IN TWO,
WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT ABOUT 86W. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE 50TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, AND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY,
WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING US
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY,
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES. EVEN AT
THAT THOUGH, WE'RE TALKING PROBABILITIES BELOW 50 PERCENT, SO NOT A
SURE BET BY ANY MEANS.
UNTIL THAT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY, AND
PERHAPS FRIDAY. SATURDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NORMAL,
WHICH IS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE 90 MARK. LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
LOOKS ENTIRELY REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR WILL BE FOUND AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE DAY, TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. THOSE SITES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF GETTING SH/TS
WILL BE SHOWN WITH TIMING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY BEING IN CONTROL. ISOLATED NIGHTLY STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE. OVERALL, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AT OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE ANY STORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-
076>087-089>100.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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