806
FXUS64 KLIX 250531
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1231 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE CURRENT AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS
COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. RESIDENTS SHOULD OBEY ALL BURN
BANS IN PLACE AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES
OUTDOORS EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE BURN BANS IN
PLACE.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO MICHIGAN DURING
THE EVENING, WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH TO CUBA,
AND OVER UTAH/ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AT MIDNIGHT WITH MOST TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
BE CENTERED NEAR SAVANNAH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY
MUCH WHERE IT'S AT RIGHT NOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE (0.75 INCHES).
DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS, LET ALONE RAIN, THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH LOWS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AS STUBBORN HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
RETURN UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGING BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING, AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DIURNAL RANGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LARGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AREA-WIDE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST PLACES.
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN EARLY NOVEMBER, THOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THIS SOLUTION A BIT. BOTTOM LINE - DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL HAVE
ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY, AND 10-12 KNOTS AT MOST AT
FORECAST TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN,
MAUREPAS, AND SALVADOR IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT NORTH OF I-10 TODAY AND MONDAY. 20 FOOT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH TODAY AND
MONDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, AND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP WILD FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL ON THE HIGHER SIDE. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
REMAINS OUT DUE TO THIS HIGHER FIRE POTENTIAL EVEN AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK, INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP TO LIMIT FIRE
POTENTIAL EVEN AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ534>536-541-
543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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