285
FXUS64 KLIX 131124
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
624 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
RIDGING OVER THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS,
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN VERY DRY AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY. MOST OF
THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY THAT WE
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO 700MB.
SPECIFICALLY, PW IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH
PERCENTILE TOMORROW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DUE TO THESE FACTORS,
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED TO THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MIXING EXPECTED TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THIS BRINGS OUR MIN
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, OR 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR HIGHS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS CLOSER TO US FROM THE ARKLATEX
REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE
SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE, EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY ON SATURDAY, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY, KEEPING US WELL
WITHIN ITS GRASP. WE KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT, MORE
CONTINENTAL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL MANAGE TO KEEP PW IN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WILL MIX OUT TO 700MB
AGAIN. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE WAS USED TO
LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS
ONCE AGAIN BRINGS MIN RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ON
SUNDAY, BUT AGAIN, THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO CURB ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WE'LL HAVE A SLIGHT "COOLDOWN" OF 2-3 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STILL LITTLE-TO-NO RAIN AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO STICK AROUND THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WE GET INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PW IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THE 10TH
TO 25TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THAT. TEMPS WILL HOVER RIGHT ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WELL DUE TO THE RIDGING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF SPELLS OF 10-15KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MIXING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, A DRY
FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 92 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 94 70 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 93 73 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 89 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 91 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...JZ
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