099
FXUS64 KLIX 012313 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
613 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES TODAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LOW, A FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
BROAD SCALE 594DM RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING PRETTY MUCH ALL OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE CENTER WAS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA YESTERDAY BUT HAS SINCE DRIFTED FARTHER
NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, AN EASTERLY WAVE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THAT COMBO OF LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
INCREASED MOISTURE AND ALREADY HOT CONDITIONS IS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE HAS RAPIDLY SPREAD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS OVER THE LAST HOUR. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THESE STORMS WITH TYPICAL SUMMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PROFILE IN
PLACE. ALTHOUGH MEAN FLOW IS DECENT, ANY STORMS THAT GET HUNG UP
ON A BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING. AREAS EAST OF THOSE RIVER BASINS ARE CLOSE TO THE RIDGE
CENTER AND MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE MANY IF ANY STORMS.
THE ARGUABLY MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER HAZARD THOUGH IS HEAT. 500MB
HEIGHTS WHAT THEY ARE COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE HAVE DRIVEN HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 100S. HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT TODAY WON'T BE EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW AS TEMPS COME DOWN JUST
ENOUGH WITH RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENING. THAT'S NOT TO SAY IT WONT BE
HOT, JUST THAT WE'RE BORDERLINE ADVISORY TODAY AND PROBABLY JUST
UNDER IT TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL AIDE IN
TRANSITION OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. IN DOING SO, LOCALLY WE'LL LOSE INHIBITION THATS BEEN
LIMITING STORM COVERAGE LATELY. MANY DAYS THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL
SEE STORMS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ALONG SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES. ONCE THOSE STORMS BECOMING MATURE AND THEN OUTFLOW
DOMINATE, THEY'LL SPREAD TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. AREAS THAT DON'T SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE AROUND THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MCB IS AT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL CALM WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY, MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TERMINALS WHERE BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
CYCLE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS AND DIRECTION WILL
VARY THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OVERALL
GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH IS WHY WINDS STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 10
KTS AND SEAS/WAVES MOSTLY UNDER A COUPLE FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW MAY BE STRONGER AND COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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