258
FXUS64 KLIX 061904
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
104 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
1. THIS MORNING'S ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AND
IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTAL LA PARISHES AND COASTAL MS
COUNTIES. IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5" ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR WITH A FINAL ROUND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS MORE AREAS INCLUDING MORE INLAND AREAS.
2. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL COME FROM A STRONGER COLD FRONT
LATE ON SUNDAY. COLDER AIR FROM THIS FRONT WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY
SO THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN SOUTHWEST MS AND ADJACENT PARISHES ON TUESDAY
MORNING.
3. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF COASTAL TERREBONNE AND
LAFOURCHE AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS WEST OF
THE MS R.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE LINGERING, NEAR STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE IS STILL
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THE RAINS WE'VE BEEN SEEING INTO THIS
MORNING. IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
WITH ACCUMULATIONS ONLY IN THE LOW TENTHS.
LINGERING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PARISHES,
TERREBONNE AND LAFOURCHE, AND NEIGHBORING COASTAL WATERS WILL
SUPPORT WINDS, TEMPERATURES, AND DEWPOINTS THAT MAKE DENSE SEA FOG
A POSSIBILITY. ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCLUDE CLOUD COVER, NORTH WINDS, AND MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
NEXT WEEK MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INITIALLY. ALL
INDICATE THE L/W TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND SETTING UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS/ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
THOUGH IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BUT THAT IS
MORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE MODELS
OVERALL IN FAIR ENOUGH AGREEMENT WE WILL JUST STICK WITH THE
LATEST NBM. THE BIGGEST POSSIBLE TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY MORNING AND THAT MAY BE THE ONLY REAL DEVIATION FROM THE
NBM.
THE L/W TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT FINALLY USHERING A COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY FILTER IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE SFC HIGH WILL NOT QUITE BE OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT STILL TRYING TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
THE CENTER OF IT WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE REASON
FOR THAT IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA THE PATTERN INITIALLY WILL BE ZONAL ALOFT. A S/W COMING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
IT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. THAT FINALLY PUTS
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION WE STILL MAY BE
TAPPED INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH COULD KEEP HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT
ON RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFICIENCY. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ONCE
AGAIN AT THE HIGH END OF THE PROBABILITIES AND IS EITHER RIGHT AT
OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY MAKE YOU
QUESTION IT AND SEE IF WE WOULD BE COLDER HOWEVER, THE MOS
PRODUCTS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER AND GIVEN THE NOT FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP I SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS AT THIS TIME WHICH RANGE FROM RIGHT NEAR FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST MS TO LOWER/MID 40S OVER COASTAL SELA.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WE WILL REMAIN DRY MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MODERATE TUESDAY. [CAB/DSS]
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
SHRA- ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOWERED CIGS HAVE KGPT/KASD/KNEW/KHUM AT IFR TO MVFR.
KBRT/KMCB/KHDC/KHUM ARE AT MVFR TO VFR. AS THE LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO IFR OVERNIGHT. KHUM DOES SHOW SOME LOWERED CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATUS DECK IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY BENIGN WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
AT ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STALLED FRONT. MARINE DENSE FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN
THE INNER WATERS WEST OF THE MS R. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DEVELOPING. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING
ONSHORE BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 44 66 44 / 20 10 40 50
BTR 59 48 71 46 / 40 10 50 50
ASD 57 46 68 46 / 60 20 30 60
MSY 59 52 69 50 / 70 20 30 50
GPT 56 49 67 49 / 70 20 30 60
PQL 57 46 67 46 / 70 30 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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