937
FXUS64 KLIX 230639
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR LOWER PORTIONS OF MOST
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TODAY'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
- IMPACTFUL HEAT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
PERSIST BEYOND THAT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE VERY SHORT IN DURATION.
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM, TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR ONE MORE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEFORE
WATER LEVELS DIMINISH. WE EARLIER EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD
PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BEYOND TODAY, LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TODAY'S CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE, SO NOT PLANNING ON A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
THERE'S GOING TO BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH
IS GOING TO TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT BACK TO THE LEVELS THAT
WERE OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ALL WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12
CORRIDORS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WON'T BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE PERIOD, SO IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL, IT WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON MULTIPLE
DAYS. HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE A PRETTY
GOOD BET FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE LIKELY TO STILL SEE PATCHES OF RAIN WITH AT
LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS, AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD EVENTUALLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AROUND SUNSET. WON'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG FRIDAY MORNING IF WINDS DROP OFF ENOUGH AT KMCB.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
WATERS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON. WHERE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN DROPPED, THEY'VE BEEN REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WHILE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE. FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND SHOULD SEE MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR MARINE OPERATIONS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WE MAY NEED SOME SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES, BUT CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE
NEAR THOSE OF THE LAST 24 HOURS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ091-093-095-097.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ058-
077-080-082-093-095-097-098.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ070-
076-078-091.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ529-
531>536-554-557-575-577.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ531>536-554-557-575-577.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ543-551-553-570-572.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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