454  
FXUS64 KLIX 282025  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
325 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN  
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. DRY  
AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 600MB HAS LED TO ELEVATED DCAPE VALUES OF 1100  
TO 1300 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED  
MLCAPE OF 3000 J/KG, WILL LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN THE SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTHWARD WITH TIME ACROSS THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND THE FLORIDA  
PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER  
SUNSET WHEN WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING.  
 
THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT-TERM MODELS THAT  
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR EARLIER TOMORROW AROUND  
9-11AM. DCAPE IS MUCH LOWER TOMORROW WITH VALUES AROUND 600-700  
J/KG, SO THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE AS  
THE ONES TODAY. WE'LL STILL HAVE HIGH COVERAGE TOMORROW SINCE PW  
WILL BE ABOVE 2 INCHES (AND ALSO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR  
THAT DAY). ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK WON'T BE AS HIGH TODAY, HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE A BIGGER RISK DUE TO THE HIGHER PW. THIS LARGELY  
GOES WITHOUT SAYING, BUT IF A STORM SITS OVER AN AREA FOR AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, ESPECIALLY AN URBAN AREA, FLASH FLOODING  
WILL BE LIKELY TOMORROW. EXPECT TOTALS JUST UNDER AN INCH WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WHERE STORMS STAY OVER AN  
AREA. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT  
OF THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING AS THE SUN SET, SIMILAR TO TODAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO THROW  
A "COLD" FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL MAINLY DRY OUT  
OUT A LITTLE BIT AND MAKE MORNING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER  
(LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION  
WILL FIRE OFF OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. DCAPE  
SEEMS TO BE ELEVATED AGAIN WITH VALUES OF 900-1000 J/KG, SO  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN FRIDAY.  
 
AFTER THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, NW FLOW SPREADS OVER THE  
AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH FILTERS IN, SO THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE  
PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND WHILE THAT IS OVER THE AREA.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
NORTHERN GULF COAST, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO  
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK INTO MORE OF A 'SUMMER-TIME'  
PATTERN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY. EXPECT  
THAT ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA UNTIL THE  
SUN GOES DOWN. AFTERWARDS, CONVECTION SHOULD WANE INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO COME IN BY TOMORROW WITH  
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT BOUNDARY.  
OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW MORNING IS  
RELATIVELY LOW, BUT WORTH MENTIONING PROB30 AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ONSHORE  
WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME  
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE  
MIDWEST, SO EXPECT WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY.  
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TAKE OVER THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE HIGH FILTERS  
ACROSS THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 67 82 69 83 / 50 80 20 60  
BTR 70 85 72 86 / 70 90 20 70  
ASD 70 84 71 87 / 50 80 20 70  
MSY 74 85 74 87 / 70 80 20 70  
GPT 71 83 72 87 / 70 80 30 70  
PQL 70 84 71 87 / 70 80 30 70  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JZ  
LONG TERM....JZ  
AVIATION...JZ  
MARINE...JZ  
 
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