917
FXUS64 KLIX 030000
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 549 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFTS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. PLEASE AVOID NAVIGATING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE IN A SMALLER VESSEL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
- BEYOND TOMORROW, LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE LED TO SURFACE LOW
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
HELPED DO A COUPLE OF THINGS: FORM A MODEST 30-35KT LOW-LEVEL JET
AND INCREASE SURFACE WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS HAS LED TO SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 200 M2/S2
SRH AND 45-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY AND DECENT
FORCING SEEM TO BE LACKING FOR TODAY. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR AND THE
WEAKNESS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (5.5-6 C/KM) AND LOWER MLCAPE (~500 J/KG). THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY, SO EXPECT CONTINUOUS SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THESE UPDRAFTS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE. OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 25-30MPH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THAT LOW MOVE TO THE EAST, WINDS
SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO GUSTING 15-20MPH. WE WILL STILL
BE ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED WITH NBM 75TH PERCENTILE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE
ENTERING THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SURFACE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL AND ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED, EXPECT PATCHY ADVECTIVE FOG TOMORROW
MORNING FROM RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF THIS SEQUENCE THAT EVENTUALLY
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO EJECT JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, THOUGH,
KEEPING ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF OUR
LOCAL AREA. SO, EVEN THOUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SINCE
THE MID-LEVEL FORCING IS TO THE EAST, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO PRODUCE MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WERE
BUMPED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE EXPECTED
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SO, SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-12 COULD
FLIRT WITH 80 DEGREES TOMORROW (80 DEGREES WOULD TIE THE DAILY
RECORD FOR NEW ORLEANS TOMORROW).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SINCE THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND HAS
NO ARCTIC CONNECTION, WE ONLY LOOK TO DROP 7-10 DEGREES SUNDAY
COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. IT'LL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR OF 0.5
INCH PW AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT LONGWAVE RIDGING
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE SETUP OF THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROMOTE STEADY WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO
OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO, EXPECT EACH DAY TO GET
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, STARTING WITH MONDAY,
AS WE COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY,
ALL WHILE REMAINING DRY DUE TO THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MOST TERMINALS WERE VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, BUT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LIKELY TAKING ANY
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. EVEN WHAT IS ON RADAR HASN'T PRODUCED MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE TO THIS POINT. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, WITH
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY. WILL ONLY HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF SHRA IN FORECAST,
PRIMARILY AT KGPT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THREAT OF
TSRA IS NON-ZERO, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REALLY JUSTIFY A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH RAPID DRYING EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR PRETTY QUICKLY BEYOND 18Z, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
KMCB.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ABATE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KNEW. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY. ONLY MENTION OF LLWS FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE AT KMCB
THIS EVENING, AND EVEN THAT IS A BORDERLINE CASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK EASTWARD,
CROSSING FLORIDA ON TODAY. LOCAL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY, BUT A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RESULT IN
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING WHICH WILL LEND TO SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 69 44 63 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 64 74 46 67 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 62 78 47 66 / 40 20 0 0
MSY 66 79 51 65 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 63 76 50 65 / 50 40 0 0
PQL 60 76 47 66 / 60 60 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-
572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572-
575-577.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...JZ
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