746
FXUS64 KLIX 182313 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
613 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF MUCH OF COASTAL MS AND EXTREME SELA.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY SLIGHTLY IMPACT TYPICALLY KNOWN
PROBLEM AREAS LIKE WAVELAND, MS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AROUND
MIDDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NEAR TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
WE ARE SEEING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.
AS FOR TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES MAY BE A TAD HIGHER BUT OVERALL
TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY. WE WILL LIKELY STILL
HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP CONVECTION DOWN TO ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED BUT AS THE WEEK CONTINUES CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BIGGEST POSITIVE FROM A RAIN CHANCE STAND
POINT WILL BE THE MOISTURE INCREASE. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY
INCREASING BUT WE WILL SEE PWS SURGE TOMORROW. IF RAIN REMAINS ON
THE LOWER END TOMORROW AND CLOUDS AREN'T TOO THICK, IT WILL BE A
WARM DAY. H925 TEMPS OF 23-24 C SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 90 TO LOWER
90S. BUT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN SKIES WE PROBABLY WONT
FULLY REALIZE THOSE TEMPS BUT UPPER 80S TO MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ONE MORE POSSIBLE IMPACT TOMORROW COULD BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IN SOME OF THE COMMON PROBLEM AREAS. WE ARE RIGHT AT SPRING TIDE
FOR THE MONTH AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WE ARE RUNNING AROUND 0.6 TO JUST UNDER 1' ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE FOR ATLEAST ONE MORE DAY
TOMORROW. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY
SPECIFIC TIMING OF IMPULSES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DIFFER BUT THE
OVERALL SETUP IS NO DIFFERENT. NBM IS ADVERTISING NUMEROUS TO
CATEGORICAL POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO GET VERY SPECIFIC WITH TIMING
SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM IT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW FINALLY GETS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE RIDGING
ALOFT TO THE EAST AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF IT SPECIFICALLY IS
STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE ALREADY
HAVING INCREASED WITH PWS AT OR JUST BELOW 2" WILL BE IN PLACE. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING THAN WE HAVE THE PREVIOUS 5 DAYS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY AS THE RIDGE COULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT OVER
THESE LOCATIONS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THINGS ONLY IMPROVE
FOR RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TIME. THERE WILL
BE NO FRONT PLOWING THROUGH OR TROUGH AXIS SLIDING COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS LEAVING A MOISTURE ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS
THE RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL TRY TO INDUCE SPLIT FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THAT, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, AND THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AID THE EFFICIENCY OF STORMS AND
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY ADD UP OVER SOME OF THE NORTHWEST.
LOCATIONS ALONG EXTREME SELA AND MUCH OF COASTAL MS ON THE OTHER
HAND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...COVERED THESE WITH PROBS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE TIME.
WINDS WILL BOUNCE AROUND HEADLINE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RIGHT AROUND 15 KTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE IN EFFECT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER ALONG WITH
BRETON AND CHANDELUER SOUND. AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY HOWEVER THE BULL OF THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN INLAND. WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONE LAST HICCUP IS MAYBE SOME VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS,
MAINLY AROUND THE WAVELAND AREA GIVEN THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY MIDDAY MAY BE THE PEAK OF
ANY TIDAL IMPACT'S. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
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