391
FXUS64 KLIX 190507
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOST
COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE BROAD PICTURE IS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND ADJACENT LANDMASS. THIS
LOWER PRESSURE IS WHERE THE OLD FRONT HAS STALLED DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS STILL
RATHER TIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS
MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
THESE WINDS SPEEDS SHIFTING NORTH AND/OR SOUTHWARD FROM TIME TO
TIME WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE OF
THOSE SHIFTS COME LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH IS WHY MARINE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN SHIFTED NORTH. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN AS TIME MOVES ALONG, BUT WILL BE SLOW AND SHOULD ALLOW
THESE HEADLINES TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TUE AND POSSIBLY DROP BY
WED. INLAND, A LIGHT BREEZE WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TUE,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED AND THU. NO RAIN
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT TEMPS WILL WARM WITH EACH DAY BACK
INTO THE 80S TUE AND MID 80S THU.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR SAVANNAH TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, AND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH RIDGING FROM TEXAS
TO MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE LOUISIANA COAST BY NEXT SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWER LEVELS,
AND SEE NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT ANY LEVEL. IN FACT, THERE MAY
NOT BE A TRUE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL HALLOWEEN WEEKEND. FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH MOST VALUES NEAR OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE (0.83
INCHES). DEW POINTS AREN'T LIKELY TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES UNTIL
PERHAPS NEXT SUNDAY. SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL NEED TO MENTION
ANY PRECIPITATION IN NEXT WEEKEND'S FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE WARMING TREND FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE AS THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES BENEATH THE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND BATON ROUGE
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. THAT'S PROBABLY THE UPPER END
THOUGH, AS THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT BATON ROUGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
IS 89. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE. WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE, EXPECT SOME
RATHER LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
SOUTHSHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE WITH DIRECTIONS RANGING FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, SO ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN NECESSARY ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINE TIME EXTENSIONS POSSIBLE. BY LATE
IN THE WEEK CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE BENIGN WITH WINDS AND SEAS
EASING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA ACROSS ALL WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ551-553-554-
570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ553-554-570-
572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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