228  
FXUS64 KLIX 031006  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
406 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
FOG IS A BEAST TO FCAST. WE NEED TO START THERE AND REGARDLESS OF  
HOW DIFFICULT, WE STILL HAVE TO MAKE OUR BEST CALL FOR IT OCCURRING.  
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR BOTH LAND AND SEA SINCE THERE  
ARE NO REAL CHANGES FROM LAST NIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE WIND  
SPEEDS. THE ISSUE HERE IS WE NEED MORE WIND SPEEDS FOR ADVECTIVE FOG  
SINCE IT IS WHAT TRANSPORTS THE MOISTURE AND/OR FOG THAT IS NEEDED  
TO CAUSE VIS TO PLUMMET. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE LOW FOR NOW BUT ARE  
EXPECTED TO RISE TOWARD SUNRISE AND THIS MAY BE ALL WE NEED TO CAUSE  
VIS TO FALL FROM AROUND 1SM NOW TO 1/4SM BY SUNRISE. THIS SAME THEME  
WILL BE USED FOR TONIGHT AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT  
DIFFERENT, BUT WE COULD STILL SOME FOG AROUND. THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL  
BEGIN TO LIFT INLAND WITH SOME SH/TS SLOWLY FORMING ALONG IT THROUGH  
THE DAY BUT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH A STRONG  
SHORT WAVE RUNNING THROUGH THE BASE OF IT, THIS WILL BECOME A BIT  
MORE VOLATILE AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
EARLY TUESDAY WILL HAVE SOME SH/TS AROUND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH. BUT THE SHORT WAVE  
WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF STRONG VERY FAST MOVING STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER  
SE TEXAS OR THE NW GULF JUST BEFORE DAYLIGHT TUESDAY. THIS AREA WILL  
RUSH EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF REMAINING OVER THE  
GULF WATERS BUT SOME OF THESE COULD HIT SOME SOUTH SHORE AREAS  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP BRING THE SH/TS  
EAST AS WELL. BUT WE WON'T JUST CLEAR OUT. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL BE  
AROUND AND WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE CHANCES OF FOG OCCURRING  
AGAIN BY MID WEEK. A GENERAL INCREASE IN SH/TS COVERAGE WILL OCCUR  
AS THE END OF THE WEEK APPROACHES, BUT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS  
UP WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE HEADACHE FOR THIS COMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AT MOST SITES AND LIFR IS  
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THIS COULD REACH MVFR  
LEVELS BY NOON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WILL BE BACK INTO  
IFR/LIFR AGAIN BY THIS EVENING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND FOG  
WILL PLAGUE AT LEAST THE NEARSHORE AND INLAND WATERWAYS EACH NIGHT  
AND MAY BE TOUGH TO LIFT UNTIL LATE EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY  
IS POSTED AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WILL BECOME VARIABLE TUESDAY THEN NORTHERLY  
LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN MOVE AROUND THE COMPASS TO EASTERLY BY  
WED THEN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE STORMS,  
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-20KT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 76 61 78 61 / 10 10 40 70  
BTR 80 65 81 65 / 10 10 50 80  
ASD 77 63 77 63 / 10 10 30 80  
MSY 77 64 78 64 / 10 10 40 80  
GPT 73 62 73 62 / 10 10 30 70  
PQL 76 61 76 62 / 10 10 30 70  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-  
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-  
534-536-538-550-552-555-557.  
 
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-  
077-083>088.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-  
536-538-550-552-555-557.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TE  
LONG TERM....TE  
AVIATION...TE  
MARINE...TE  
 
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