362
FXUS64 KLIX 140522
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1222 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED OVER THE AREA.
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD INCREASING HEAT,
WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
IT IS QUITE EASY TO PICK OUT WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATIONS
THE STACKED LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS AREA LATER TODAY, SO WE WILL
UNFORTUNATELY STAY IN A VERY UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT FOR TODAY UNTIL
THE NEXT THING CHANGES THINGS. THE NEXT THING THAT WILL HAPPEN IS
THE H3 CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EVEN FARTHER WEST WELL INTO
TX THAN ITS CURRENTLY CONNECTED H85 LOW. THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE
TODAY CAUSING THESE TWO TO DISCONNECT EVENTUALLY CAUSING A MESO-
HIGH BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE SH/TS TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES WHILE A "VOID" OCCURS
BETWEEN THEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESO-HIGH. THIS IS EASILY
DEPICTED IN QPF FIELDS OF ALL MODELS AS SOON AS TONIGHT AND
DEFINITELY AS WE MOVE INTO WED. THE RELATIVE VOID AREA OF PRECIP
WILL RUN DOWN THE AXIS OF THIS MESO- HIGH FROM AMARILLO TO DALLAS
TO NEW ORLEANS. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE NO MORE STORMS
DEVELOP WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THIS AXIS, IT JUST MEANS THERE WILL
BE FAR MORE STORMS DEVELOP WELL AWAY FROM THIS AXIS. THIS SAME
SCENARIO CARRIES INTO THU AS WELL. THERE IS A THETAE AXIS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST BY LATE THU INTO FRI WHICH COULD HELP
BRING MORE STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS TO THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE
AREA. BUT THERE ARE DISSAGREEMENTS ON WHERE THIS AXIS WILL LAY BY
FRI.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE AREA BEING BETWEEN TWO
RIDGES THIS WEEKEND TO A RIDGE OVER THE AREA TO POSSIBLY A TUTT
MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE GULF TO A DEEP L/W TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MID LVLS THIS WEEKEND WITH HOW THE
RIDGE BUILDS DOWN AND HOW MUCH IT IMPACTS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THEY
START TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE WORK WEEK
ADVERTISING THAT EAST COAST TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WHICH THEY
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING NOW FOR DAYS. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER SO THERE
IS A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WITH THE MODELS
JUST ALL OVER THE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE
WILL STICK WITH THE NBM FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER MN/WI WILL BEGIN TO WORK
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SERN CONUS. WHILE THE MID LVL LOW OVER OUR
AREA STARTS TO SLIDE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY HAVE ITS GREATEST
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND HOW DOES THE MID LVLS EVOLVE. WILL THE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILD
BACK WEST OVER THE AREA AS THE EVENTUAL L/W STARTS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST OR DOES THAT L/W TROUGH BEGIN TO DEVELOP MORE WEST
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WHILE A SLOWER DEVELOPING AND MORE TO THE EAST PLACEMENT
ALONG THE COAST CAUSES THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WEST OVER THE AREA
AND THUS A DRIER AND HOT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER DEVELOPING L/W TROUGH AND NOT AS MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT NOT A DOMINATING RIDGE THUS ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE OVERALL
LACK OF COVERAGE WE WILL BE QUITE WARM. THE LOW LVL TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 RANGE IN SOME OF THE USUAL SPOTS LIKE AROUND THE TIDAL LAKES
AND BETWEEN THE MS AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
CIGS WILL CAUSE IFR NORTH THEN GRADUALLY RISE TO
VFR AT THE COAST. VERY -SHRA WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYLIGHT. AFTER
SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL CONDITION WITH MVFR AND
IFR LEVELS MOVING IN WITH TSRA DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE HANDLED
WITH PROB30 GROUPS. TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY SHOW SEVERAL TERMINALS
WITH SKC WITH ALL IN VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
OUTSIDE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS, A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE PROTECTED WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT-DURATION HAZARD. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS AND STRONG
GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATEST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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