451
FXUS64 KLIX 191714
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-113 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL OFFER LIMITED TO NO RELIEF.
- ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL BE WEAKENING/BREAKING
DOWN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, INCREASING HUMIDITIES. DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS,
BUT GENERALLY A SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE WILL ENHANCE SOME RAIN
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
SUBSEVERE WINDS (40-50MPH) WHERE THEY OCCUR.
HEAT CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 105-112 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THURSDAY DURING THE PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. SOME RELIEF COULD BE IN SIGHT AS WE GET
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, RIDGING BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN
AGAIN. A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS COULD HAVE LIGHTING OR GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS,
BUT WILL BE GENERALLY WEAKER AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM
103-110 DEGREES. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE! MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PROB30 GROUP IS IN EFFECT FOR GPT
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM THAT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHER WINDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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