880
FXUS64 KLIX 041845
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
145 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS ON SUNDAY.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS TODAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY HAVE NECESSITATED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS NEXT WEEK COULD INCREASE THE
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT ON EAST FACING SHORELINES BY MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
UPDATE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
UPPER RIDGING WAS OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO ARKANSAS AND EASTERN TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH AREA.
THIS MORNING'S LIX UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY (1.35 INCHES).
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 55 WESTWARD AT 1 PM CDT.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING TODAY TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, WHICH
IS NEAR OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT
CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ANYWHERE. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, BUT SHEAR IS GENERALLY GOING TO
BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK, 20-25 KNOTS. AS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS, SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT,
COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EVENING OVER COASTAL AREAS. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULDN'T
SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT THAT BOUNDARY MERGERS COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SPOTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE
COULD OCCUR. IF THAT HAPPENS OVER AN URBAN AREA, IT WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHILE
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO 60. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR 70 OR EVEN UPPER 60S NORTHWEST AND MID 70S EAST. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S NORTHWEST AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES ON MONDAY. THAT SHOULD
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO THOSE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PARISHES.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE FLIPPED FROM
YESTERDAY, WHEN THE ECMWF WAS PUSHING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA, NOW
IT'S THE GFS WITH THAT SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THERE'S MUCH
LESS OF A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT THERE HAS BEEN
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE NBM
SOLUTIONS.
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST NEXT WEEK, THAT
WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ON EAST FACING
SHORELINES, POSSIBLY AS SOON AS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THREAT OF TSRA WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY TO BE IMPACTING KBTR AS THE FORECAST GOES
INTO EFFECT. TSRA THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
IFR BY SUNRISE AT MOST TERMINALS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY, BUT LOW CONDITIONS
(PRIMARILY CEILINGS) COULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MOST WATERS, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT WIND
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED
TO OUR NORTHEAST. WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS
FORECAST NEXT WEEK, THAT WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING ON EAST FACING SHORELINES, POSSIBLY AS SOON AS TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE/UPDATE...RW
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