605
FXUS64 KLIX 071059
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
559 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE AREA BUT WILL LEAVE AN
UNSETTLED ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LOWER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
- AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND REMAIN LOWER, TIDE
LEVELS HAVE ALSO LOWERED BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO FALL OUT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FURTHER SLOW EASING OF THESE TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- EVENTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY, ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINS ALONG WITH SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS, IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO PUSH THESE AREAS INTO FLOODING WHERE ANY
HEAVY RAINS FALL. A MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN
MONDAY WITH LESS ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND MOVE
NORTH MONDAY. UNTIL THAT OCCURS, DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW. THIS IS NOT NORMALLY
A PROBLEM EITHER IF ITS JUST ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE. BUT THIS HAS
BEEN AMPLIFIED BY CONVERGING THE EASTPAC MOISTURE WITH THOSE
MOISTURE FEEDS. THIS IS COMMON DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME
EVEN CALL IT THE GULF MONSOON PERIOD(MAY/JUNE). WE NORMALLY SEE
HEADLINES WITH FLOODING OVER SE TX LIKE THE HOUSTON AREA, BUT THIS
CAN AND DOES LAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST. IT JUST SO
HAPPENS TO BE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR NOW. BUT THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING WEST AND EVENTUALLY, THE
EASTPAC WILL CUT OFF MAKING THE AREA DRY AND HOT AGAIN. THIS IS
THE OVERALL CLIMATALOGICAL THEME EACH YEAR SO WE WILL SEE HOW THIS
MOVES IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT "DRY" WEATHER DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE HERE FOR A STRETCH THIS WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE DAILY STORM
AROUND BUT SHOULD BE IN A MORE NORMAL SUMMER-LIKE DISTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER GEORGIA. A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AND BE
CENTERED NEAR EL PASO AT THAT POINT, BUT EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY, AND COULD PUSH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WON'T BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
THEY'VE BEEN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY INSTEAD OF AT THE TOP
OF THE CHART. THAT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO TOTALLY SHUT DOWN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER
COMPARED TO THE CURRENT WEEKEND. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE 20
TO 40 PERCENT POPS, AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY IN THE
AREA, 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH VERY
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE, SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD BIT OF
SUNSHINE. EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD HOLD HIGHS BELOW THAT LEVEL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A MIX OF IFR TO VFR WILL BE IN AND OUT OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME MVFR TO VFR. THERE
WILL STILL BE SH/TS AROUND TODAY BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE WILL STILL CAUSE TEMP IFR
CONDITIONS WHERE THEY MOVE OVER TERMINALS. FOR MOST OF TONIGHT,
VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE CASE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WHEN THE
NORTHERN TIER OF TERMINALS COULD SEE IFR CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WINDS REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SHOULD BE THIS WAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE TODAY RELATIVE TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND NEAR AN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ058-
082-084-098.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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