529
FXUS64 KLIX 261027
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- IMPACTFUL HEAT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK.
MID WEEK WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES 110-115
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NORTHWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. TROUGHS WERE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA, AND
MORE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI. THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WAS A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THE ALABAMA SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES AT MIDNIGHT WERE MID 70S TO MID
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SURFACE HIGH REALLY WON'T BE MOVING A
GREAT DEAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH COULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA,
BUT NO INDICATIONS IT WILL MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN
INTERSTATE 20 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WON'T BE ABLE TO
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING MAX HEATING ON
ANY OF THE DAYS, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT MEANS IT'S GOING TO BE HOT THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TODAY SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MID 90S, BUT DEW POINTS MAY BE
JUST LOW ENOUGH (70-75) TO KEEP HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F), COORDINATED WITH WFO MOB. DAY SHIFT CAN
REASSESS THIS MORNING AFTER THE SOUNDING DATA COMES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGHER, DEW POINTS
WILL BE HIGHER, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WOULD PROBABLY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES, WHILE WEDNESDAY WOULD
NECESSITATE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE'LL
GIVE IT OME MORE ROUND OF GUIDANCE BEFORE HEADLINES GET ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
BY LATE WEEK THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE A BIT TO A LITTLE LESS HOT
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. ALOFT, AN H5 EAST COAST TROUGH
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PULL A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRETTY FAR SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION ALL THE WAY OVER INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN FLOW, IT SHOULD STALL
OVER THE AREA, WHICH WOULD HELP PROVIDE A CONSISTENT FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM, BUT STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ONLY CONCERN IS WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, AN EARLY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME COULD MEAN WE ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING OR MONDAY
MORNING, BUT DURATION WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN HOUR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD FOR MARINE OPERATIONS. THERE WILL BE THE
USUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE
WINDS APPROACH AND SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS DURING THE
EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. MAY BE
LIMITED PERIODS WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY, BUT IT WOULD BE A BORDERLINE CASE EACH DAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page