129
FXUS64 KLIX 131802
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE
SPORTS AND FESTIVALS.
- LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING PARTICULARLY
NEAR WATER BODIES. CHANCES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO
DENSE FOG EXISTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE UPCOMING DAYS WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL FORCES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH DAY. THE RECENT UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED BY THE
1200 UTC LIX SOUNDING THIS MORNING DOES INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUR POSITIONING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR US TO DECOUPLE AND CALM DOWN AT THE SURFACE,
SUFFICIENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN
DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SREF/HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO
DENSE FOG (3 MILES TO 1/2 MILE) TUESDAY MORNING, PREDOMINANTLY
FOCUSED BEFORE AND AT SUNRISE, BUT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE IS
NEEDED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND BOOST FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF ANY
PATCH DENSE FOG DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN MS AND ADJACENT
PARISHES.
DAYS WILL LARGELY START OUT WITH PATCHY, LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG
PARTICULARLY FARTHER INLAND IN AREAS OF SOUTHERN MS AND
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHICH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. ONCE
ANY FOG CLEARS, A CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE CU MAY TOWER A LITTLE
TALLER AND A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DUE TO STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGING IN THE SE CONUS
WILL ALSO AID IN RAPID WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A TOASTY END OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS TO BE AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO TREND WARMER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ONLY CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY BEING THAT THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE ERODED SOME BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN STILL,
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 90F NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
BATON ROUGE AS WELL AS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN NEAR AND NORTH OF
BOGALUSA ARE 50-70% FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF 90F IS REACHED,
THIS WOULD BE ABOUT A MONTH EARLIER THAN THE AVERAGE FIRST 90F DAY
FOR BATON ROUGE (BTR).
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SW CONUS BEFORE
EJECTING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL GENERATE
A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND HELP TO DRIVE COLDER AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS IT PERTAINS TO WHERE THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE
CYCLONE EJECT AS THAT LONGITUDE WILL MATTER REGARDING HOW STRONG
ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST AROUND
THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD BE OUR BEST BET AT REPRIEVE FROM
THE SPRING HEAT AS WELL AS SUPPLY US WITH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 8 TO 15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS ALONG
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR FOG PROBABILITIES ARE MODEST AT AROUND
40-60% FOR MORE INLAND AREAS PARTICULARLY INVOLVING BTR AND MCB,
BUT ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AT HUM, HDC, GPT,
AND ASD. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FUTURE
FORECASTS MAY REFINE FOG TIMING AND DENSITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS HAVE EASED TO JUST UNDER 15 KT
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE
ONSHORE FETCH APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDAL TRENDS AS WE
APPROACH THE SPRING TIDE PHASE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A
COLD FRONT COMING ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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