523
FXUS64 KLIX 281052
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
552 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FIRE SPREAD. RESIDENTS SHOULD OBEY ALL BURN BANS IN PLACE
AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES OUTDOORS EVEN
IN AREAS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE.
- ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL EASE TODAY, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED RISE
ONCE AGAIN OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY CAUSING ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BY
THURSDAY.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
HANCOCK COUNTY, BUT THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
OTHER COUNTIES/PARISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY BUT VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT THERE ARE SOME CHANGES COMING TO
THIS PATTERN. 24N 131W IS THE TIP OF AN UPPER H3 JET THAT WILL BE
COMING INTO THE BAHA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ALREAD COMING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS BEING CARVED OUT IS SHEARING THE TOPS OFF TROPICAL STORM VANCE
NEAR MEXICO THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY, AS THIS JET ROUNDS THIS
BASE, THE MOISTURE FROM VANCE WILL GET BROUGHT NE WITH IT. THIS
DOES NOT MOVE INTO OUR AREA BUT INSTEAD GETS WRAPPED UP WITH A LOW
IN THE INTERIOR. BUT IT DOES HELP DEEPEN THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO
DRAW A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. THE NEXT ITEM IS A SFC
CIRCULATION FOUND AT 23.5N 79.10W. THIS FEATURE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION AND LOW PRESSURE FIELD WITH IT WHICH IS INTERACTING
WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST RIDING BACK
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO PRODUCE OUR NE WINDS FOR DAYS NOW.
THIS BROAD LOW WILL MOVE WEST TODAY AND ONE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ARMS OF THIS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS
MORNING, WILL ALSO MOVE WEST AROUND THE RIDGE UNTIL IT FEELS THE
SYNOPTIC LOW DEVELOPING OVER TX IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO PIVOT AND MOVE NW AS IT FILLS ALONG
THE NEW FRONTAL AXIS DEVELOPING OVER TX AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE
INTO OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BY FRI. THIS WILL BE THE ONSET OF DEEPER
MOSITURE FOR US AS WELL WITH CLOUDY SKIES DEEPENING WITH TIME AND
SOME RAIN WITH A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY. THIS FRONTAL
AXIS IS ACTING LIKE A WARM FRONT FOR OUR AREA AS WINDS WILL FROM
EASTERLY TO SE AND DEW PT TEMPS SURGE. AT THE MOMENT, NONE OF THIS
LOOKS SEVERE, BUT MODELS WON'T AGREE UNTIL WE SAMPLE THE JET THUR
MORNING OR LATER.
THE WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST THEN SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
ALSO CAUSE KING TIDE LEVELS TO BRING ABOUT SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING AND MOST
OF THE HIGHEST TIDE LEVELS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL START WITH
BRINGING HANCOCK CO INTO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT/1AM BUT WILL LIKELY BRING OTHER COUNTIES/PARISHES
INTO THIS ADVISORY AS TIME MOVES FORWARD. THE THINKING IS LEVELS
LESS THAN A FOOT OVER NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
GOING INTO SUNDAY MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOVING DOWNSTREAM
AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE CONTINUES NORTH AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. BRIEFLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD SIGNAL A BIT DRIER. FROM THIS POINT ON
EYES SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST WERE A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND A RATHER ROBUST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GLOBALS HAVE THE FEATURE BUT THE EVENTUAL
MOVEMENT/ADVANCEMENT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE GFS HAS THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO INTERESTING TO POINT
OUT IS THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO DECIDE ON WHAT AMOUNT OF QPF WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS PROGRESSIVE
AS IT DROPS THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER H5 TROUGH SOUTHWARD LIMITING THE
FORWARD SPEED/PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT APPEARS TO
HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH A MUCH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. SO, FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE LOWER TO MID POPS GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES. THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT EARLY TO MID WEEK A ROBUST
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND WILL MOVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH, BUT AGAIN
TIMING AND QPF ARE GOING TO BE A BIT TRICKY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAILY
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY WITH ONSHORE FLOW HELPING FOR A WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THOUGH, THERE
WILL SOME TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY, AGAIN, BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE. UPPER CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THIN THIS
MORNING ALLOWING SOME MIFG TO FORM, BUT THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
AND SHOULD NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES. CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK TONIGHT KEEPING FOG FROM FORMING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PERSIST NEAR FLORIDA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF RISE ABOVE 7
FEET.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MSZ086.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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