182
FXUS64 KLIX 041714
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
UPPER LOWS WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NEAR SAN FRANCISCO
THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGING WAS OVER MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WAS PRODUCING
ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CHANDELEUR SOUND
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS THE WESTERN END OF A BERMUDA HIGH SURFACE
PATTERN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WERE AROUND
0.5 INCH, WHICH IS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY INTO THE MID
70S.
THE UPPER LOW NEAR SAN FRANCISCO THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO ARIZONA BY TOMORROW EVENING, THEN BEGIN SHEARING OUT, AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INDUCE A SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS BEGINNING TO INCREASE.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4
INCHES (75TH PERCENTILE), AND 1.7 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (90TH
PERCENTILE). A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN QUESTION WHETHER
THE LOCAL AREA IS CAPPED. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOT PLANNING ON
RADICAL CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY POPS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING, BUT
STILL A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW, ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IT MAY
BE AS LATE AS MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS LOWER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH. NOT MUCH CONSENSUS BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECM AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER,
ESPECIALLY FROM DAYTIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION BEYOND THURSDAY, BUT UNTIL
THERE'S SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS, NBM POPS WILL HAVE
TO SUFFICE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES PRETTY HIGH. AS LONG AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. OBVIOUSLY, IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
IT'LL HAVE A CUMULATIVE EFFECT ON FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY
LOOKS TO BE ATTAINABLE, AND VERY POSSIBLY QUITE A BIT MORE IF THE
GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION THE MAIN CONCERN FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME SCT TO BKN CUMULUS BY LATE
MORNING TOMORROW, BUT ANY CEILINGS BELOW FL030 SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FURTHER
INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE WATERS AND STALL OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO MORE VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS. BY FRIDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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