869
FXUS64 KLIX 050611
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
111 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WARM DAYS AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MARGINAL,
BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
- HEAT STRESS WILL BE AN IMPACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST
TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WE ALWAYS GIVE THE WHEN, WHERE AND HOW MUCH, BUT THIS IS THE PLACE
WE CAN GIVE THE WHY. WE WILL DISCUSS FEATURES AT THE H3 LEVEL
SINCE THIS IS WHERE ONE CAN SEE THE THINGS BEST THAT ARE CAUSING
OUR WEATHER TO OCCUR THIS WEEK. THIS IS OFCOURSE REFLECTED
DOWNWARD, BUT WE WILL KEEP IT AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE. A VERY MINOR
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH CURRENTLY CAUSING
MOISTURE TO STACK VERTICALLY WICH IN TURN CAUSES THE PW VALUES TO
INCREASE. AND THE HIGHER THE PW VALUES, THE HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THE RAINFALL CAN BE. NORMALLY, THIS FEATURE MOVING
THROUGH WOULD ONLY GIVE ONE MAYBE TWO DAYS OF WIDESPREAD STORM
ACTIVITY, BUT THE LARGER SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN COME IN
BEHIND THIS, SINCE THE SHORT WAVE IS ACTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH, HELPING TO CONTINUE THE HIGHER PW VALUES. THE
UPPER TROUGH STANDS IN THE FLOW(LIKE A STANDING WAVE), WHICH MAKES
IT STALL OR ACTUALLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH ACTUALLY MOVES NEAR OUR AREA WED.
THIS MEANS IT TAKES 3 FULL DAYS FOR THIS TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE FROM
THE TEXARKANA REGION TO HERE. THE STRONGER WINDS FINALLY ROUND
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO BECOME PROGRESSIVE,
SPEEDING IT UP TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WED WILL BE OUR TRANSFER DAY
MEANING OUR PW VALUES WILL FALL AND THERE WON'T BE ANY DYNAMIC
LOAD ALOFT TO HELP STORMS FLOURISH. THIS WILL CAUSE ONLY ONE THING
TO KICKSTART KINEMATICS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUOYANCY. THIS IS
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS UNTIL
TODAY. BUT THIS SINGLE DRIVER WILL BE BACK POSSIBLY BY WED BUT
SURELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK BRINGING OUT
DAILY RATION OF STORMS TO AROUND THE 30% LEVEL ONCE AGAIN. EACH
DAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE CHANCES ARE LOW FOR ANY ONE LOCATION, BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE H7
LEVEL WILL DEFINITELY LEND TO ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS HAVING
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS CAUSING WET MICROBURSTS. WATERSPOUTS
ARE ALMOST A GIVEN IN THESE ENVIRONMENTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE LATELY. BUT WITH ADDED HELP ALOFT, SOME OF THESE COULD FORM
OVER MARINE AREAS AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. WHEN
BUOYANCY IS THE ONLY DRIVER, WATERSPOUTS WILL NORMALLY WEAKEN
ONCE THEY "FEEL" LAND, WHICH IS TO SAY THE FLOW IS
DISTURBED/DISRUPTED DUE TO THE LAND MASS CAUSING FRICTION TO THE
FLOW. WITH MORE UPPER DYNAMICS INVOLVED, WATERSPOUTS CAN ACTUALLY
HOLD TOGTHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DECAYING. THIS
GREATLY DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG THE DYNAMIC LOAD UPSTAIRS IS, AND
TODAY THROUGH WED, IT IS WEAK BUT IT IS THERE WHICH MEANS IF THEY
REACH THE COAST, THEY ARE ALMOST ALWAYS WEAK VOTICIES BUT CAN
STILL CAUSE HAVOC A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LATER IN THE WEEK AN H5 RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ATLANTIC, ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS
WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH SIGNALS AN UPTICK IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. POPS FOR THIS TIME WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE TYPICAL
CLIMO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS. AND AGAIN WITH THE RELATIVELY
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, A SERIES OF IMPULSES MAY SLIDE NORTH AND EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE CWFA. TIMING WILL HELP KEEP POPS GOING DURING PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE SUMMER PATTERN
REMAINS ROUGHLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
(FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TSRA TODAY WILL BE TIMED IN PROB30 GROUPS BUT WILL
ALSO ADD SOME PREVAILING GROUPS SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE COVERAGE
TODAY. MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED AT SOME TIME TODAY
BY TSRA PRODUCING AT MOST MVFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY. MOST IF NOT
ALL ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTSIDE TSRA, VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A WSW DIRECTION BY LATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEK AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10KT
BUT A FEW DAYS COULD RISE TO NEAR 15KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW MAY BE STRONGER AND COULD PRODUCE
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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