611
FXUS64 KLIX 302309
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
609 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
PERFORMED A BRIEF FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MATCH
OBS/TRENDS. REALLY NO BIG EDITS REQUIRED AS EVERYTHING REMAINS ON
TRACK. KEPT MINT'S OVERNIGHT GENERALLY THE SAME FROM THE EARLIER
DAY FORECAST, HITTING THE TYPICAL DRAINAGE BASINS A TAD COOLER AS
WE'LL SEE MUCH STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE THANKS TO
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. COOLER AREAS FROM
MCB TO ASD TO THE INTERIOR MS COAST REGIONS COULD SEE LOWER 40'S
TO EVEN AN ISOLATED UPPER 30 OR TWO, DEFINITELY A JACKET-WEARING
MORNING AHEAD FOR TOMORROW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WILL DIVE DEEPER
WITH THE FULL PACKAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. KLG
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ANOTHER FABULOUS FALL DAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. ONLY REAL
NEGATIVE WAS THE COLD WEATHER CU AND SOME STRATUS OVER FAR EASTERN
COASTAL MS. OTHERWISE, TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE 60S BEFORE 18Z UNDER
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE
AREA AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT CAA CONTINUES TO OCCUR BELOW H85.
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND DRY. MAIN FORECAST
QUESTION IS TEMPS ESPECIALLY HOW MUCH DO WE COOL OFF TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT BOTH NIGHTS BUT MAY NOT QUITE BE OPTIMAL
FOR EITHER NIGHT. THAT SAID THE NBM DETERMINISTIC NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE PULLED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMO AS THESE ARE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE THE MEAN. THAT
SAID IT APPEARS EVEN WORSE LOOKING AT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK (BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT LATER).
AS FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL GOING TO BE SLIDING IN AND
EVEN BY SUNRISE IS STILL CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LIKELY IS WHAT IS AT LEAST LEADING TO THE
SLIGHT CAA IN THE LL JUST BELOW H85 BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
HIGH GENERALLY ISN'T THE BEST LOCATION TO REALLY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT. THAT SAID DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING AND AT 19Z WERE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S, COASTAL MS STILL HAD SOME UPPER 40S BUT
THESE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SLACKING OFF CONSIDERABLY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND
WE SHOULD EITHER BE LIGHT AND VRB OR CALM OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE LAND AREAS AND EVEN WINDS AT H95 LOOK TO DROP BELOW 10KT
BEFORE 5Z. GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA IS ALREADY STARTING OFF IN THE
MID 60S IT WILL BE EASY TO SEE A 20-25 DEGREE DROP OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SFC HIGH IS THAT IT DOESN'T PROMOTE THE COLD
AIR DRAINAGE THAT WE SEE IN NIGHTS WHERE THE SFC HIGH IS DIRECTLY
ON TOP OF US FOR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THAT SAID WE ARE
STILL FORECASTING LOWS TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA
RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS WE HAVE DROPPED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE SEE OUR FIRST UPPER 30S OF THE SEASON.
THAT SAID EVEN IF ANYONE TESTS THAT AND TOUCHES 39 FROST IS NOT A
CONCERN TONIGHT.
TOMORROW FOR HALLOWEEN MAY BE THE NICEST HALLOWEEN SINCE 2009. IN
FACT THERE HAS ONLY BEEN 3 HALLOWEENS IN OUR AREA OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 YEARS TO SEE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 70. HOWEVER,
2023 WAS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE COLDEST HALLOWEENS IN THE LAST 100
YEARS IN OUR AREA AND TEMPS ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S WITH RAIN AROUND THAT DAY BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND COOL TO COLD BY THE END
OF TRICK OR TREATING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER SINCE THE CAA WILL BE DONE. WE SHOULDN'T MIX OUT TO H85 SO
LOOKING AT H925 TEMPS, MODELS ARE GENERALLY ADVERTISING 10-12C
AND THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO MID 60S TO NEAR 70. WITH HIGHS STILL
ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CHILLY FALL NIGHT. YOUR TRICK-OR-TREAT FCST CALLS FOR
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND LIKELY CALM IN MOST AREAS WITH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
YOUR QUEST FOR CANDY. IF YOU ARE ONE OF THE OLDER AND LUCKY GHOULS
AT THERE STILL IN SEARCH OF THE FULL CANDY BARS AND NOT THOSE
WIMPY SNACK SIZE AROUND 2/3Z THE TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM POSSIBLY
THE UPPER 40S FOR OUR COLD SITES TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AFTER THAT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ALMOST PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES FROM
ON TOP OF US TO THE AL/GA/TN AREA BY SUNRISE. ONE POSSIBLE CONCERN
TO WATCH IS IF THE SFC HIGH IS A LITTLE FASTER ALONG WITH OUR
SYSTEM COMING LATER THIS WEEKEND. IF THINGS ARE FASTER THAN WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE WAA IN THE LL AND THAT WILL HURT THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF COOLING. WITH THAT LOWS WILL LIKELY STILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S BUT CAN'T RULE OUT ANOTHER ISOLATED LOCATION OR TWO
TOUCHING 39. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
EVEN THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
THEY CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND FARTHER EAST
AGAIN. THIS IS REALLY HINTING NOW AT A SMALL WINDOW OF IMPACTS AND
EVEN THOSE IMPACTS ARE ON THE LOWER END WITH MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
AND POSSIBLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEING ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MOSTLY DRY
AND COOL FCST WITH THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THAT THE FCST
IS MAINLY A TEMP CONCERN AND IT STILL APPEARS THE THE NBM IS VERY
MUCH ON THE WARM END WITH ITS DETERMINISTIC FCST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND IS ACTUALLY THE HIGH
MEMBER FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME RATHER
NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE MORNING LOW FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
USING A 35/65 BLEND OF THE NBM/NBM 50 AND THEN DROPPING OUR RIVER
DRAINAGE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES INCLUDING THE WEST BANK.
MAIN DRIVER IS THE SYSTEM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA CURRENTLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO MN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE A S/W DIVING DUE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA COMES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF IT AMPLIFYING THE L/W TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THIS OCCURS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY. AS THE L/W TROUGH DIGS AND
AMPLIFIES WE ARE STILL VERY DRY. THE SFC AND LL DON'T RESPOND FAST
ENOUGH AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND QUICKLY STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AS THE TROUGH DIGS. THIS SHOULD
DEVELOP SHOWERS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THAT
WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST. BY SUNRISE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND
SLIDE EAST AND THE AXIS WILL BE EITHER DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA OR
POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND NOT
OVER OUR AREA LIKE THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO. AS THIS HAPPENS WE
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AND MAY BE RAIN FREE LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECOVERY, THE LITTLE TO NO RESPONSE IN THE LL
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA, LACK OF INSTABILITY MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ONLY SEE SHOWERS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY SOUTH OF THE 10/12
CORRIDOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE COAST
IF NOT OUTRIGHT JUST OVER THE WATER.
AFTER THIS THOUGH WE SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR.
EVERYTHING IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK
IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR 2 RATHER FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS WITH MORNING LOWS POSSIBLY TESTING
THE UPPER 30S IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BOTH MORNINGS. WE WILL START
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF BUT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY AND LIKELY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
EVEN THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
THEY CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND FARTHER EAST
AGAIN. THIS IS REALLY HINTING NOW AT A SMALL WINDOW OF IMPACTS AND
EVEN THOSE IMPACTS ARE ON THE LOWER END WITH MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
AND POSSIBLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEING ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MOSTLY DRY
AND COOL FCST WITH THE ONLY RAIN POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THAT THE FCST
IS MAINLY A TEMP CONCERN AND IT STILL APPEARS THE THE NBM IS VERY
MUCH ON THE WARM END WITH ITS DETERMINISTIC FCST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND IS ACTUALLY THE HIGH
MEMBER FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME RATHER
NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE MORNING LOW FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
USING A 35/65 BLEND OF THE NBM/NBM 50 AND THEN DROPPING OUR RIVER
DRAINAGE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES INCLUDING THE WEST BANK.
MAIN DRIVER IS THE SYSTEM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA CURRENTLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO MN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE A S/W DIVING DUE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA COMES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF IT AMPLIFYING THE L/W TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THIS OCCURS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY. AS THE L/W TROUGH DIGS AND
AMPLIFIES WE ARE STILL VERY DRY. THE SFC AND LL DON'T RESPOND FAST
ENOUGH AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND QUICKLY STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AS THE TROUGH DIGS. THIS SHOULD
DEVELOP SHOWERS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THAT
WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST. BY SUNRISE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND
SLIDE EAST AND THE AXIS WILL BE EITHER DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA OR
POSSIBLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND NOT
OVER OUR AREA LIKE THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO. AS THIS HAPPENS WE
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AND MAY BE RAIN FREE LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECOVERY, THE LITTLE TO NO RESPONSE IN THE LL
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA, LACK OF INSTABILITY MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ONLY SEE SHOWERS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY SOUTH OF THE 10/12
CORRIDOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE COAST
IF NOT OUTRIGHT JUST OVER THE WATER.
AFTER THIS THOUGH WE SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR.
EVERYTHING IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK
IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR 2 RATHER FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS WITH MORNING LOWS POSSIBLY TESTING
THE UPPER 30S IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BOTH MORNINGS. WE WILL START
TO MODERATE TUESDAY AS A FLAT RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF BUT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY AND LIKELY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE. /CAB/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WINDS BECOMING AROUND 6-8KTS
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLACKING OFF ALL MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND ALL FLAGS/HEADLINES SHOULD DISAPPEAR
THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WAS TO ADD SCS
HEADLINES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS BECOME CALM LATE-WEEK, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS THIS FORECAST HAS
BEEN CHANGING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IMPACTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN WITH OUR LAST. CONFIDENCE
WILL GROW AS WE GET CLOSER AND GUIDANCE ALIGNS WITH TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 41 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 44 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 41 69 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 52 70 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 44 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 40 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ572-575-
577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...CAB
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