326
FXUS64 KLIX 282343
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
643 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS PEAKING BY
TUESDAY UP TO 110F.
- ONGOING MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER BASINS.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS RETURNS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVES MOVES OVER
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY STARTING TO BAKE UNDER A 594DAM H5 RIDGE
RIGHT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS HELPING TEMPERATURES
WARM WELL INTO THE 90S. THAT SAID, RH VALUES AND TEMPS HAVE NOT
INCREASED ENOUGH TO BRING US INTO HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY YET...AT
LEAST TODAY. WITH A RATHER HIGH AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER
THE HEAT BUBBLE, CONVECTION HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, THERE ARE SILENT 10'S OVER THE
BTR AREA AS BOTH GLOBALS AND CAMS HAVE AN ISOLATED ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO, SIMILAR TO NOLA YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE.
GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TO INCLUDE THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. AS IT DOES IT
WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST, AT LEAST EARLY ON IN THE WEEK.
BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE
DOWNSTREAM UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE...NOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND STRONGER...ROUGHLY
598DAM. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BAKE OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH, THIS
WILL ADD SOME SPREED TO THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND MOVE
IT THROUGH THE REGION PRETTY QUICKLY. THIS SHOULD OVERALL LIMIT A
MORE WIDESPREAD HYDRO/SEVERE THREAT, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING AND A
SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE EASTERLY WAVE EXITS STAGE WEST, THE POPS ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY
AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED AND
LESS IMPACTS FROM THE RIDGE IS IT CONTINUES A BIT MORE AWAY FROM
OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST CLIMO POPS/TEMPS AS WE
EVOLVE INTO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN GOING INTO THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
GOING INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND EYES
SHIFT UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AS ANOTHER
H5 EASTERLY WAVE TRIES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS WILL INCREASE POPS AND
MAYBE LOWER TEMPS A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE APPEARS
RATHER WEAK IN THE GLOBALS, BUT THERE REMAINS A QPF SIGNAL LATE
WEEK AND SADLY INTO THE UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. IT
DOESN'T LOOK AT THIS JUNCTURE LIKE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT, BUT MANY
WILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED BUILD DOWN
OF CIGS CLOSER TO MVFR NEAR BTR AND MCB BEFORE SUNRISE, NO
THRESHOLD CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
AND BE REPLACED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THIS WAVE,
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, MOSTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...RDF
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