641
FXUS64 KLIX 060001
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
601 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING. PLAN AHEAD FOR
POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT'S TOO SOON TO SAY
WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ITS POTENTIAL. RESIDENTS
OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS INFLUENCING THE AREA
AND CONTRIBUTING TO SOME NICE WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST AND A RELATIVE HIGH OVER THE GULF ARE BRINGING
GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS IS BRINGING WARM, MOIST AIR
INTO THE AREA GIVING US AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 THAT FEELS A BIT
HUMID. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND WITH THE
HIGH RH AND LOWER WINDS FOG IS A POSSIBILITY, THOUGH A LOW
PROBABILITY, IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. ALL IN ALL, THIS FAIRLY
BENIGN FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTED BY THE NBM
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY, WE REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL FLATTEN JUST A BIT AND TAKE ON A ZONAL FEEL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 60 AND
THE LOW 70S RESPECTIVELY. THE BIG HEADLINE REMAINS THE FOG AND
WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE THE
PROBABILITY OF LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING FOG INCREASES.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WE SEE A TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER HIGH TO AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DROPS LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE
40/60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN, MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH POPS IN THE 60 PERCENT RANGE AND TOTAL QPF
AROUND 1". AS OF THIS WRITING, SPC HAS A SLGT OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER JUST TO OUR NORTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED
SHEAR AND IF ANY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WE COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS ON THE FAR SIDE OF OUR FORECAST
CONFIDENCE, SO DETAILS ARE NOT AT ALL FIRM - STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG AND LOW CEILING PROBABILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
FAVORABLE WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL OF
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT, AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. THE MOST PERSISTENT FOG THAT WILL
PRODUCE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT MCB WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL BE STRONGEST. AT GPT, SOME
ADVECTION FOG MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, BUT
THE PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE ARE LOWER. ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE OF 3 TO 5 MILES TONIGHT. THE LOW
STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 17Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 18Z AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT PREVAIL, WITH A SHORT TURN TO
WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
SUPPORT 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS. MARINE FOG IS THE CONCERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL TURN WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND BEGIN BUILDING
TO AROUND 20 KT. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
SAFETY HEADLINES. AS WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE,
STAY TUNED AS FORECAST DETAILS RESOLVE OVER TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 55 74 59 75 / 0 10 10 0
BTR 57 78 62 78 / 0 10 10 0
ASD 54 76 59 76 / 0 0 10 0
MSY 59 78 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 57 73 59 72 / 0 10 10 0
PQL 54 74 58 75 / 0 10 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...DS
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