565
FXUS64 KLIX 171846
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
146 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS.
- MOST VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 1/4 MILE, SO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT, PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AROUND RIVER
SYSTEMS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LARGER WATER BODIES. OVERALL A CONTINUATION
OF MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN, SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA
PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
GOING INTO LATE SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE WEST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR, BUT LIKELY EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL...IT'S JUST THE LOWER NUMBERS WILL BE
SEEN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN OUR CWFA. BEHIND THE FRONT A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION. ON SUNDAY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 30MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHSHORE. WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY AS WE START THE
NEW WORKWEEK...RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL HELP TRANSITION WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY OR ONSHORE FLOW. GOING FURTHER, OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AND POP FORECAST IS FAIRLY MESSY AT
THIS JUNCTURE. THE REGION ALOFT WILL BE UNDER A MORE ZONAL FLOW SO
WITH THE QUASI RETURN FLOW SETTING UP WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GLOBALS, HOWEVER, DIVERGE A GOOD BIT. GFS IS OPTIMISTIC WITH POPS
AS AN H5 IMPULSE SPREADS EAST OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM IS DRY, SO SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOWER END POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
AGAIN AN OVERALL WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE SHAPE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN SOME
VIS ISSUES MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I10/12. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 10 TO
15 KT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LEADING TO THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO EAST INTO TUESDAY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED. WEDNESDAY, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SE DIRECTION AND EASE A BIT TO AROUND 10-15 KT,
POSSIBLY REMAINING THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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