711
FXUS64 KLIX 141915
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
215 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- ANOTHER LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A VERY SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN,
BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE ALMOST-EARLY-SPRING
TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60, GIVE OR
TAKE.
TOMORROW SEES THE BEGINNINGS OF CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. BY LATE EVENING, SAY 10PM-ISH THE
FRONT WILL BE CROSSING OUR NORTHWEST BORDERS. IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A QLCS BRINGING WINDS FROM THE MIDLEVELS TO THE SURFACE
AND PERHAPS GENERATING SOME BOWING SEGMENTS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE SOME WEAK ROTATIONS, THAT IS TORNADOES. OVERALL, THOUGH,
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY BY 5AM-ISH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RAPID MOVEMENT COULD ENHANCE THE STRAIGHTLINE WINDS, BUT MAY
ACT TO SUPPRESS TORNADO DEVELOPMENT JUST BECAUSE IT IS MOVING SO
FAST. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND RAPIDLY CLEARING
SKIES, NORTHWEST WINDS, AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE OVERNIGHT
LOW, WHICH ACTUALLY HAPPENS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY, AROUND THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MONDAY DURING THE DAY WILL BE CHILLY AND BLUSTERY WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY LIKELY. THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL BRING US ONE MORE
NIGHT OF COLD WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
I-10/12 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH CHILLY TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE LOW 70S
BY WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS OUTSIDE THE FORESEEABLE FORECAST PERIOD, WELL BEYOND SEVEN
DAYS FROM NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING ALL TERMINALS EXPERIENCING VFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
ARE NON-ZERO CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WORTH
MENTIONING HERE, BUT NOT A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INTRODUCE IN
THE CODED TAFS. BY MID- MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MID=AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME IFR AT TIMES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOWER
BROKEN STRATUS DECK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE AREA
BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WINDS
SWING THROUGH WESTERLY. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL PUSH SEAS OVER 12 FEET IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. THE
GALE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
EASING ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AND FALL TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page