873
FXUS64 KLIX 271702
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY. WHILE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME A
CONCERN MAINLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
GENERALLY DRIER AND COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ISOLATED TO LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TO START THE
WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SURFACE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND ONWARD, WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 80S, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. MSW
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE RIDGING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST, SO RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXTRA MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. PWS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AROUND 2+ INCHES, SO RAINFALL SHOULD
BE QUITE EFFICIENT WHERE IT FORMS WITH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES. GENERALLY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN IF THE TREND HOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE ARE
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING INDICATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT
STRONG STORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL A HUGE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE
WEEKEND FORECAST AND EVEN BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AS IT DEVELOPS
THIS WEEK AND INTERACTS WITH OTHER FEATURES. WHEREAS YESTERDAY,
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WAS CONVERGING OVER OUR AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, NOW THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS
MORESO TO OUR EAST AND ALONG OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR CHANGES. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WINDS OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMETIMES
VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SE BY
TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THE RISE FURTHER INTO MID NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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