183
FXUS64 KLIX 020557
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- ONE LAST MORNING OF FREEZING CONDITIONS THIS GO AROUND THIS
MORNING BUT WE WILL QUIOCKLY WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. RAIN TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
TEMPS PLUMMETED DURING THE EVENING AS EXPECTED AND THEY WERE
QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST LOWS BUT FINALLY BEGAN TO SLOW
DOWN AND SOME HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES THE
LAST 2 HOURS. STILL EXPECT TO SEE MOST LOCATIONS DROP ANOTHER 1- 2
DEGREES BUT OVERALL MOST OF THE COOLING IS PROBABLY COMING TO AN
END.
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH THE REGION FINALLY MODERATING.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE. IT HAS BEEN
QUITE DRY OVER THE LAST WEEK PLUS BUT FINALLY WITH S/W RIDGING
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND LL RETURN FLOW SETTING BACK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL
FINALLY GET THE MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN. THIS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA.
PRIOR TO THAT WE WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 15 DEGREE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED AND THEN ON TUESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING 70.
MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY
MORNING THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO RE-AMPLIFY TUESDAY. THE DEEP L/W TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT US OUR RECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER A S/W RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS KIND OF HELPS FLATTENING
EVERYTHING OUT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT ON TUESDAY WE
WILL SEE A REX BLOCK TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST AND AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE NEXT STRONG DISTURBANCE TRIES TO ROUND THE
RIDGE AND WORK SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE MID LVL START TO AMPLIFY ONCE
AGAIN. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY BUT OVERALL WE
ARE MAINLY TALKING ABOUT RAIN WITH IT AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS QUITE BENIGN. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BUT
THAT IS ABOUT 5-6 DAYS AWAY AND WITH NO REAL GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
YET WE WILL STICK WITH THE NBM FOR NOW.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE REX BLOCK WILL STILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND WEST OF THE BAJA WHILE THE L/W
TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TUESDAY NIGHT OUR
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD START TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE. STILL TEND TO THINK THIS FRONT MAY
BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA GIVEN THAT A
STRONG S/W WILL BE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FAR WESTERN TX BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL JUST CAUSE
THE L/W TROUGH TO HANG BACK AND DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE BROAD AND FILLING WEDNESDAY WHILE THE FRONT
WILL HAVE MORE OF A ENE-WSW ORIENTATION UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REALLY DOESN'T SCREAM QUICKLY MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH
THAT THE TEMPS FORECAST IS REALLY THE MOST DIFFICULT PART RIGHT NOW
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING. IF THE FRONT IS ONLY 3-6 HOURS SLOWER THE
MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE NBM THINKS THE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH OR ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. AGAIN LIKE THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WILL USE A MILD BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM 75 OVER THE CWA
BUMPING MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UP A LITTLE BUT LEAVING
THE HIGHS ALONE FOR NOW MAINLY BECAUSE WE WILL LIKELY SEE NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR THE RAIN,
MOISTURE FINALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS AS LIFT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WE WILL SEE RAIN MOVE
BACK IN AND THAT RAIN ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
WILL DEFINITELY HELP KEEPS HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE EVEN IF THE
FRONT IS SLOWER.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK BACK INTO THE REGION
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEING THE MAIN DRIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY LEADING TO THE NORTHERN HALF/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP US QUITE,
COOL, AND DRY THURSDAY WITH THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING MAYBE ONE MORE
NIGHT DURING THIS STRETCH OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY JUST
THE NORTHEASTERN 33RD OF THE CWA.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND RIDGING TO OUR WEST SHOULD HELP
TO WARM THINGS UP A TAD BUT WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED L/W TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN 3RD OF THE CONUS AND DEEP COLD AIR WORKING SOUTH THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE MAY SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THAT SAID IT WON'T BRING
ANYTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH BUT IT WOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AS WELL. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION AND WINDS HAVE RELAXED. AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT RETURN FLOW. BY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER FL
LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
NEEDING SCS OR LOW END SCY HEADLINES. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY AND SCY HEADLINES ARE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ056>060-064>068-077-
087>090.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ076-079-080.
GM...NONE.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page