614
FXUS64 KLIX 040509
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1109 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
WHILE OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW, A FEW HEAVIER
STORMS COULD PROVIDE MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
- NIGHTLY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS
JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS MOVEMENT IS
MATCHED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING TROUGH OVER THE WEST THAT DEEPENS
WITH ITS EASTERLY MOVEMENT. WARM, MOIST GULF AIR WRAPS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS AND BRINGS INCREASING AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME RAIN, IN MODERATION,
WOULDN'T BE A BAD THING OVER MOST OF OUR AREAS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. OVERNIGHT MOIST AIR AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR DETAILS EACH NIGHT BEFORE MAKING ANY CALLS ON FOG VERSUS LOW
STRATUS. TONIGHT THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE ST. CHARLES, LAFOURCHE,
TERREBONNE PARISHES AND RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR LIGHT
PATCHY FOG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
AS THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST IT
CUTS OFF OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND FUNNELS MOIST PACIFIC AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS STRENGTHENS RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POPS IN THE 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BRINGING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
AREA THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CONTINUED LOW CIGS WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGHT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LASTING GENERALLY
THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH LIFTING OF CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AND RETURNING TO MVFR AND NEAR IFR BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP, WITH MOST WATER
TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EXCEPTION
IS THE WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 50S EARLIER TODAY (52F AT CARROLTON GAUGE, 54F AT
PILOTTOWN AND 59F AT PILOT STATION). THAT WOULD SIGNAL A
CONTINUING THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RIVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WHILE MOST OF THE STRETCH OF
THE RIVER ISN'T IN A MARINE ZONE, MARINERS ON THE RIVER NEED TO BE
AWARE OF THE THREAT.
WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR A LITTLE LESS OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS, SO NO INDICATIONS OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WON'T RULE OUT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES ON OCCASION IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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