366
FXUS64 KLIX 101839
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF
SOUTH. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE LESS THAN 5.0C/KM. THESE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL GREATLY LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION
AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY LOW POP VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
WARM BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EASILY
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES, OR NEAR AVERAGE,
ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES BY SATURDAY AS MORE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE GULF. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE TO ABOVE 5.0C/KM AND MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000
J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE PATTERN
TO DEVELOP WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH HIGHS RISING TO
SIMILAR VALUES AS THOSE SEEN ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SUNDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE OBSERVED IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED. PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE AND MLCAPE WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PLUME OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FEEDING IN FROM THE GULF WILL SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ON MONDAY AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 2.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY. THESE
VALUES ON TUESDAY ARE NEAR THE DAILY MAX. MONDAY WILL BE A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY FORCED
CONVECTION FIRING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A
FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.
AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TRAINING OR
BACK- BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE AND
EXCEEDINGLY WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -5C, HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WILL OCCUR. THIS COULD LEAD TO HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. FOR LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS,
THESE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS TO INDUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND
LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT NEARLY ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT MCB, A VERY WEAK INVERSION COULD DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK RESULTING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AS SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG FORMS NEAR OR DIRECTLY OVER THE AIRFIELD.
PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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