409
FXUS64 KLIX 101047
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
547 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 459 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND THOSE OPERATING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
- TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES TODAY
BUT THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS DIMINISH.
- SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A LOT OF OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS, SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS ARE PRESENT.
MAKE SURE YOU ARE USING SUNSCREEN AND DRINKING ENOUGH WATER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VERY NORMAL SPRING-LIKE CYCLE IS ONGOING. THIS SHOWS A GENERAL
PATTERN OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TO SE WINDS AROUND A
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC. TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT AS WE MOVE INTO A NEAP TIDE CYCLE, THESE
TIDES WILL LOWER DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES. WATER LEVELS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH AT THE MOMENT BUT ARE CONTINUALLY RISING TO MEET AN ANNUAL
LEVEL OF +1FT THAT WHAT WE SEE AT THE LOWEST TIDES AROUND DECEMBER
AND JANUARY. THIS EXTRA FOOT OF WATER IS WHAT TENDS TO BRING OUR
AREA AND OTHER AREAS OF THE GULF COAST INTO COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS
DURING SPRING TIDE CYCLES ESPECIALLY WHEN METEOROLOGICAL FORCING
HELPS. ANY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY WOULD NEED TO COME FROM A
WEAKNESS THAT WILL FOLLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE 1021-1022MB
ISOBAR LINES. THE 1022MB LINE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA
TODAY AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FOR
OUR AREA. FARTHER EAST OF THIS IS TOO DRY ABOVE THE SFC TO GET
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WON'T BE THE VARIETY OF RAIN TO MAKE
HEADLINES. THIS VERY WEAK TROUGHING WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND THAT IS ALL IT WILL TAKE TO BRING MOST OF
THE AREA TO LESS THAN 10% PRECIP NUMBERS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
RIDGE, RE-ORIENTING IT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GEORGIA COAST
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
REALLY ISN'T EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH,
WITH THE HIGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WERE SEEING IN GUIDANCE 24 HOURS AGO, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF
THAT TIME, WITH 1 INCH BEING PRETTY MUCH RIGHT AT THE DAILY MEAN.
EVEN THE WETTEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY BRIEFLY REACH THE 75TH
PERCENTILE (1.2-1.3 INCHES).
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ON PRETTY MUCH ANY DAY, THE
ONLY DAY THAT MIGHT HAVE A MENTION IN THE GRIDS IS NEXT THURSDAY,
AND THAT IS ONLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WELL
NORTHWEST OF A MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE LINE, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A TOTALLY DRY
PERIOD A MORE LIKELY SOLUTION. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5-10F
ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, ALTHOUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MIGHT FALL A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHERE IN
OUR CWA A LOCATION REACHES 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE
EARLY, BUT NOT RECORD-BREAKING UNLESS IT IS MCCOMB. THE AVERAGE
FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY AT OUR CLIMATE SITES OCCURS IN MID-MAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE
WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR CIGS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE LOWER END OF
VFR. A CHANCE OF -RA WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE CIGS TO THE WEST TODAY,
BUT WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT ANY TERMINAL TO SHOW IN THIS TAF
SET. TONIGHT, VIS COULD DROP A BIT MORE THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN MVFR OR HIGHER FOR ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY MODESTLY
IMPROVE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND . THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES NEEDED RIGHT INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK
AS EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ550-552-
555-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ552-555-
570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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