434
FXUS64 KLIX 180526
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH FOG POTENTIAL INCREASING A BIT
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
- NEXT SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW MOST PLACES, AND
LIKELY WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH, IF ANY, DROUGHT RELIEF.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE COLDEST MORNINGS WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
SOME NORTHERN AREAS. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT WARM SPELL
WITH SOME PLANTS COMING OUT OF THEIR COOL SEASON DORMANCY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE FOG
FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND
WINDS HAVE SOLIDLY SHIFTED TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREA-WIDE WHICH IS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
WATER TEMPERATURES SO ADVECTIVE FOG IS NOT A CONCERN. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE IF WINDS MANAGE TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT, ALLOWING
LOW STRATUS TO BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE
THIS OUT, BUT THING THE WINDS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH (4-8 KTS) TO
KEEP THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED NEAR THE SURFACE. IT'LL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH.
SIMILAR SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DON'T LOOK TO TRULY
DECOUPLE, WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR 5-8KT WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST PLACES. AND WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENTIAL TO PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THAT BEING SAID, MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE LOWS LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD, FLOW WILL START TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSING IT TO SLOW AND LOSE ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM.
WHILE THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, EXPECT IT
TO STALL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT DEPENDING
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT STALLS. MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF
IMPACTFUL FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL INHIBIT RADIATIVE PROCESSES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WITH THE FRONT STALLED NEAR OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY, EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED AND MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A
RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED.
GOING INTO SATURDAY, A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CAUSING THE FRONT TO
BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN. SETUP DOESN'T LOOK GREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL, LET ALONE SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS MORE VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WINTER ROARS BACK
TO LIFE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
15-20 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 60 MOST
PLACES.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS
THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MORNING LOWS MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
MORNINGS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR- FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE RECENT WARM
SPELL AND GREENING UP OF SOME VEGETATION ALREADY, IF THE FORECAST
HOLDS, FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO RESULT IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARD DAYBREAK. TREND HAS BEEN FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS TAF UPDATE, WITH MOST IFR TEMPO GROUPS NOW REMOVED.
ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK AND WILL SEE
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-13
KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE EASING AGAIN AROUND SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, A MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN
BEHIND IT. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN OFFSHORE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NECESSARY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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