485
FXUS64 KLIX 050532
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12
CORRIDOR. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S BRIEFLY ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND ST. TAMMANY PARISH LEADING TO A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NEAR ATLANTA TO NEAR HOUSTON THIS
EVENING, WITH RIDGING OVER NEVADA. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO WEST TEXAS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THERE WAS A PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THOSE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 11 PM CST WERE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AS IT
APPEARS TO BE A RATHER BORDERLINE EVENT. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH A BRIEF REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1/3 INCH ON THURSDAY AND 1/2 INCH ON FRIDAY SIGNAL
THERE WON'T BE A LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS, LET ALONE PRECIP.
TRIMMED THURSDAY DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY, CLOSER TO THE
25TH PERCENTILE AS NBM USUALLY DOESN'T LOWER THESE ENOUGH IN
COLD, DRY ADVECTION. AND I MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ON THESE.
LOOKS LIKE THE PASSAGE OF THE CURRENT THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WON'T
OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY, SO THE AFTERNOON
IS GOING TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S WOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE, FRIDAY SHOULD WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S, ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION, AND RIGHT NOW, ANYTHING OVER ABOUT
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IS PROBABLY TOO MUCH. WON'T TRY TO CHASE A
3-6 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE ON DAY 7 AND WILL LET THE NBM NUMBERS
RIDE.
WE'LL FINALLY GET OFF THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER FOR A BIT
DURING THIS PERIOD AFTER A BRIEF COOL OFF ON SATURDAY, WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH SOME AREAS PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE
70S, OR PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER BY MIDWEEK, A GOOD 10F OR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
WIND FORECAST, AND NOT EVEN A LOT OF CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AT
THIS POINT. THE BKN025 AT KPQL WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AND
THE CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND FL050 NEAR KMCB HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WON'T RULE OUT A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS
CAUGHT UNDER THE INVERSION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WOULD INDICATE BASES ABOVE FL040.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BY SUNSET THURSDAY, AND
WE CAN PROBABLY GET BY WITHOUT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES BEYOND THE ADVISORY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE BRIEFLY NECESSARY AT THAT
TIME. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, WITH MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ076-079-080.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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