543
FXUS64 KLIX 071044
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
544 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 EACH DAY, BUT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE
AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE AND SOME DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIDING UP FROM THE GULF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HELP
PUSH PWATS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR
AVERAGE OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY TO TOMORROW TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH DAY BEFORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY
RAINS MOVE THROUGH TO BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES. STORM MOTION WILL
BE AROUND 5 MPH TODAY AND TOMORROW, SO A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A
QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR TWO FROM THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT FORM. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, STORM MOTION SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH, AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL PICK UP A QUICK
1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CAN'T GET MORE SUMMER-LIKE THAN NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED KEEPING SFC MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP KEEP PW VALUES IN THE 50TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGE, WHICH MEANS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE CONSISTENT TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE ABSENCE OF SH/TS, TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S EACH DAY AND
HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY NUMBERS
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY BY MID NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP VENTILATION RAISED BUT IT WON'T BE MUCH LONGER BEFORE
EVEN THE WINDS WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT IT CAN BARELY BE FELT, WHICH
IS COMMON FOR AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL, A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY 30 MINUTES OR LESS OF MVFR
CEILINGS, VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR OF 1 TO 5
MILES, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
WILL BE BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PREVAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET IN
PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE UP EACH DAY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOVING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING
STRIKES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, A FEW WATERSPOUTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES. OVERALL, A VERY TYPICAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR EARLY AUGUST.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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