144
FXUS64 KLIX 221222
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
622 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED SATURDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY (20-25MPH), ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHSHORE AND RIVER
PARISHES. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT SUNDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE COLDEST MORNINGS WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING. FREEZE WARNING COULD BE NEEDED GIVEN THE RECENT WARM
SPELL WITH SOME PLANTS COMING OUT OF THEIR COOL SEASON DORMANCY.
- WE WILL WARM UP BEYOND TUESDAY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL ALSO SEE OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THAT
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF LIFT VIA PVA AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE LOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND
INTO THE GULF. BECAUSE THAT LOW IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT, LEADING TO VERY
GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30MPH AS OF MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED AND GET SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS WE GET DAYTIME MIXING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER 25MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35MPH, A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3PM. BY THAT POINT, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL HELP TO
RELAX OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING WINDS DOWN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE OTHER FACTOR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
THAT FOLLOW BEHIND IT. DEW POINTS WERE BLENDED WITH NBM10 TO TRY
TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. THIS BROUGHT DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE VERY LOW DEW POINTS COUPLED WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BRING IN VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 20-25% ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. WHEN YOU COMBINE THOSE VERY LOW RH VALUES WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25-30MPH, FIRE WEATHER STARTS BECOMING A BIG CONCERN.
BECAUSE IT IS SO DRY AND PARTS OF THE AREA ARE IN D2 (TERREBONNE
AND SURROUNDING PARISHES) AND D3 DROUGHT (WILKINSON COUNTY AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES/PARISHES), IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO START A
FIRE ON SUNDAY. SO, IF A FIRE WERE TO START ON SUNDAY, THE STRONG
WINDS WILL HELP TO SPREAD THAT FIRE RAPIDLY. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF DRY RH VALUES AND HIGH WINDS, A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO THE ELEVATED FIRE THREAT. AS THE WINDS SHUT DOWN
AND WE DECOUPLE LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WINDS AND RH WILL RETURN TO
NON-IMPACTFUL LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, ANOTHER IMPULSE LOOKS TO COME DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IMPULSE
LOOKS TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE WINDS DURING THE DAY TO 15-20MPH MONDAY
WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY, RH VALUES WILL
STILL BE IN THE 25-30% RANGE SO IT WILL NOT TAKE VERY MUCH TO
START A FIRE AGAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL HELP TO
PREVENT ANYTHING FROM SPREADING FAST. SINCE WE DO HAVE A SMALL
ENHANCEMENT, STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
DURING THE DAY, SO MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM NBM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE NVA FROM IT WILL
HELP FILTER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVING THIS
SURFACE HIGH ON TOP OF THE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAD BEEN ADVECTING IN
WILL CREATE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING.
MIN TEMPS WERE ALSO BUMPED DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING UNDER THE HIGH, WHICH BRINGS FREEZING CONDITIONS
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE RIVER PARISHES TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
ARGUMENT THAT A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE AREA
EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY HAD TWO
FREEZE WARNINGS SINCE WE HAVE HAD AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME OF THE BLOOMING INDICES INDICATE THAT
SOME OF THE VEGETATION HAS STARTED TO BLOOM EARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THAT WARM SPELL. SO, THAT WILL
LIKELY BE LOOKED AT CLOSER DURING THE DAY TO SEE THE EXTENT FOR A
POTENTIAL FREEZE WARNING TUESDAY MORNING. ONE WOULD LIKELY BE
NEEDED REGARDLESS IN THE RIVER PARISHES IS CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT
THEY WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS, BUT THE NORTHERN INCLUSION
IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE VEGETATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT FEB 212026
AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALSO PUSHES ITS ASSOCIATE
HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST, WE WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL PROMOTE A RATHER QUICK WARMING TREND. SO MUCH SO THAT
WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT BACK ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN SEEMS TO BE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE ON THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT AND TIMING, JUST
NOT SO MUCH ON STRENGTH. SO, AT THIS TIME, JUST EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE
VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH. AS A LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST DEEPENS
OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THE WINDS TODAY. LLWS LOOKS
LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE WE SEE IT DROP OFF.
IT THEN BECOMES A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE WINDS RELAXED FOR ALL AREAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND IT, THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS CAUSED WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE AND TURN
OFFSHORE. BECAUSE OF THIS, A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
AND INTO TUESDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO SHUT DOWN AT THAT TIME AND
RETURN TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ046-056>060-
064>070-076>078-085>090.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ085>088.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...JZ
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