990
FXUS64 KLIX 011722
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1222 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- WARM WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS AND MAY BE IN AND
OUT OF CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS
THIS MORNING, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WAS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE NEAR LAS VEGAS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY (1.43
INCHES). AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD WAS ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND FROM COASTAL
AREAS. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE ENTIRE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND A MAJORITY OF THE AREA ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE. ORGANIZED FORCING LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED, OTHER
THAN PERHAPS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING. THAT ONE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SOMEWHAT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, STARTING AS EARLY AS 10 OR 11
AM, AND DISSIPATING AROUND EARLY EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, CONVECTION SHOULD STAY MAINLY OFFSHORE.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH OR LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE A CONTINUATION OF THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE UPPER
END OF CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
FAVORING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING, ENHANCING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMEWHAT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN REMAIN
IN THE 70S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S SATURDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY COOLING TO THE 40S
AND 50S BY MONDAY, WITH THE COOLEST MORNING LIKELY TO BE TUESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MIDDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KGPT, WHICH IS REPORTING BKN009. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT
MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EITHER TEMPO OR PROB30 USED AS
APPROPRIATE. MOST OR ALL SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT, WILL START AT VFR, BUT EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN PRIOR TO 10Z, BEFORE IMPROVING AROUND 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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