567
FXUS64 KLIX 311759
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS IN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
- WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW, ONE OR TWO
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY, PRODUCING STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (TD 5) MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM
EDUOARD LATER TODAY. AT THIS TIME, LOCAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED TO MARINE AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE ARKANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER THIS
MORNING, WITH NEWLY DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (TD 5)
ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY. TO THIS POINT OF THE
MORNING, CONVECTION OVER LAND IN OUR AREA HAS BEEN RATHER
MINIMAL, BUT DO EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 85 TO 90 AT NOON CDT WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
PER NHC FORECASTS, TD 5 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. NO MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY OR TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, COMPARED
TO THE PRESENT, IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF AT MID-WEEK
TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE, BUT NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR WEST IT MAY MOVE IN THAT TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RUN MAINLY BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILES THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER LAND EACH DAY WITH
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
PRIMARILY IN CASE THOSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR IN SENSITIVE (URBAN)
AREAS. AT LEAST FOR NOW, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS DON'T JUSTIFY ANY
NEED FOR WATCHES.
HIGHS LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST EACH
DAY, WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING ABOVE THAT POINT.
DID BACK OFF HOURLY DEW POINTS A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE DAY, AS
CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE DON'T SUPPORT THE NBM FORECASTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GRADUALLY REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH IT CENTERED OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BY NEXT MONDAY.
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT REGARDING TIMING, STRENGTH OR
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER TROUGH OR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
GLOBAL MODELS WOULD LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AS A BIT WETTER
SOLUTION, BUT NEITHER WOULD INDICATE ANY DAY AS BEING COMPLETELY
DRY, OR A TOTAL WASHOUT. ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD PLAN FOR POTENTIAL INTERRUPTIONS, BUT THOSE
INTERRUPTIONS COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF.
NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IF
CONDITIONS END UP A BIT DRIER THAN ANTICIPATED, HIGHS COULD AGAIN
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE
HEAT ADVISORIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS
AND ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS. WOULDN'T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR SO, AS HAPPENED AT KMSY THIS MORNING. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD EVENING. OVERNIGHT, MAINLY VFR,
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS GO CALM. ONLY FOG MENTION IN CURRENT FORECAST
IS AT KMCB THOUGH. TUESDAY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (TD 5) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY, REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR
FAR WESTERN WATERS, INCLUDING TERREBONNE BAY, THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE TD 5 GETS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR
WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ541-551-570.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ551-570.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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