113
FXUS64 KLIX 122328
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
628 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO
THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. DRIER AIR AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH
SHOULD FEEL QUITE PLEASANT BY COMPARISON TO THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
MSW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 80S WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE VALUES. THE DRIER AIR AND LOWER HUMIDITIES
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
A DRY COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO
NO RAIN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LOOKING AT THE MODELS. WE MIGHT GET
A SPRINKLE OUT OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT
THAT WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S NEXT WEEKEND BRIEFLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
WARMING AGAIN. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG AND LOW STRATUS EVENT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK OR AROUND 10Z AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEWPOINTS,
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO THE LOW 60S ALL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH A SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THE
FORMATION OF FOG. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BRING IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z,
RAPID CLEARING OF THE FOG BANK IS EXPECTED AS THE SHALLOW SURFACE
BASED INVERSION MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VERY DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RAPID MIX OUT OF THE FOG
CONDITIONS. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, CLEAR SKIES AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER BENIGN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WITH LIKELY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES NEXT WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...MSW
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