900
FXUS64 KLIX 061851
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
151 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW,
BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MOST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO
108 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO
FIND ACROSS THE CWFA. CAMS HAVE BEEN SPOT ON AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. PWS ARE A LITTLE LOWER
TODAY WITH A BIT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THAT SAID,
ALTHOUGH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
GOING INTO LABOR DAY, DID NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL
BUT HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES AS DEW POINTS MAY MIX OUT OVER
THOSE REGIONS A BIT MORE EFFECTIVELY. STILL LOWERED DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT OVER THE REGION SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FOR
MONDAY, BUT WE WILL MANAGE TO MAKE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWFA. THERE IS STILL A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
TIMING OF CONVECTION AND STRONGER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY EAST WILL LIKELY HAVE NO ISSUE HITTING THOSE
THRESHOLDS.
BY TUESDAY AND GOING INTO MIDWEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES OR PERHAPS JUST UPSTREAM OVER AL. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MOISTURE POOLING WILL LIKELY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER
WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE GET
RAIN AND WITH ASSISTANCE FROM MOISTURE POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THAT GOES FOR ANY MORNING
FOR LOCATIONS THE RECEIVE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OCCURING ON
MONDAY/LABOR DAY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM THERE WILL BE A START A SYNOPTIC CHANGE.
ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR REGION. GLOBALS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
PATTERN SWAP. AT THE SURFACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS AND TN RIVER
VALLEYS. THE ECM IS A LITTLE LESS BULLISH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT DOWN AND STALLS
OVER OUR REGION WHERE THE ECM STALLS THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHERN MS
AND AL. REGARDLESS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG QPF SIGNAL
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A BIT LOWER THAN EARLIER ON IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, STILL APPEAR TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. PROB30S
FOR CONVECTION WERE USED FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I10/12
RESPECTIVELY. THIS SHOULD CLEAR AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO POST
SUNRISE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND TIDAL LAKES. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. CONVECTION, MOSTLY
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083-086.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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