748  
FXUS64 KLIX 171142  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
642 AM CDT WED APR 17 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED APR 17 2024  
 
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS  
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND  
OVER SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF  
COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT 3 AM CDT WITH TEMPERATURES  
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  
 
THE SHORTWAVES WELL TO THE NORTH WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS THE  
RIDGING OVER THE GULF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT THERE ISN'T LIKELY  
TO BE MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EVEN  
BY THURSDAY EVENING, WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPARATIVELY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700  
MB. WHILE A SPRINKLE OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER  
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, EVEN WITH PRETTY EXTENSIVE  
HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE VERIFICATION TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE  
DAYS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE, AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO  
CHANGE THAT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED APR 17 2024  
 
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE GULF  
RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, SETTING UP A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL  
PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR RAINFALL AS EARLY AS SATURDAY  
MORNING, BUT MORESO FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY AS  
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, BUT  
ANY THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AT THIS POINT. AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT ON SUNDAY, COOLER AND  
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE VERY WARM WEATHER AHEAD OF THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC NUMBERS STILL LOOK A DEGREE OR TWO ON  
THE HIGH SIDE FOR THAT DAY, BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CLOUD COVER  
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY AND THURSDAY, WE CAN'T  
TOTALLY RULE OUT ONE OR TWO SPOTS TOUCHING 90. SATURDAY/SUNDAY  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE POSITION OF THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, BUT FOR MOST OF THE  
AREA, THERE'S NOT REALLY A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.  
THAT CAN EVEN BE SAID FOR THE COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WHICH LEAVES NO REAL TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT  
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED APR 17 2024  
 
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS  
DUE TO CEILINGS. AT ISSUANCE TIME, KMCB WAS REPORTING IFR  
CEILINGS, WITH THE REMAINING TERMINALS EITHER MVFR OR VFR. ONCE WE  
GET A LITTLE SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING, MOST TERMINALS WILL  
REPORT MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR.  
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD SEE VFR  
CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CLOUDS EVENTUALLY RETURNING SEVERAL HOURS  
AFTER SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE A LITTLE LIGHTER, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
RADIATION FOG VS LOW STRATUS. WILL CARRY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS  
AT MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 09Z THURSDAY, WITH LIFR OR LOWER  
CONDITIONS NOT TOTALLY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KMCB.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED APR 17 2024  
 
OVERALL, MARINE CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAJOR ISSUES  
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS COULD PERHAPS APPROACH 15  
KNOTS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS, BUT UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES  
OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE ISN'T EVEN MUCH OF A THREAT OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS PROBABLY WILL  
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT  
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MCB 82 65 83 64 / 10 10 10 0  
BTR 87 70 88 69 / 10 10 0 0  
ASD 83 67 85 66 / 10 0 0 0  
MSY 84 70 85 70 / 10 0 0 0  
GPT 79 67 81 67 / 10 10 0 0  
PQL 82 65 83 65 / 10 10 0 0  
 
 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...RW  
MARINE...RW  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab MS Page
Main Text Page