113
FXUS64 KLIX 181143
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
543 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST/MARINE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- TURNING COOLER FRIDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 70'S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SFC THIS MORNING AND HAVE
STOPPED LOWERING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE AREAS MOST PRONED TO
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ARE NEAREST THE ATCHAFALAYA. UPPER CLOUD
DECKS HAVE ALSO REMAINED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WHICH IS KEEPING FOG FROM FORMING. THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS
CLEARED OF THE UPPER DECKS AND CONDITIONS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE AT
FOG FORMATION ONCE THIS UPPER DECK MOVES AWAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE SW DUE TO THIS REASON AND CANCELED IT
OVER THE NW DUE TO THE UPPER CLOUD COVER. IF THIS UPPER CLOUD
COVER MOVES OUT, WE COULD STILL SEE DENSE FOG FORM QUICKLY THIS
MORNING IN THOSE AREAS. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA CAUSING TEMPS TO SPIKE 4 TO 8 DEGREES OVERNIGHT
AND THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BROUGHT
ISOLATED RAIN TO THE AREA. AS IT MOVES THROUGH, THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH LESS THAN 0.1 INCH WEST OF I=55 AND
NORTH OF I-10/12, LESS THAN 0.5 INCH OVER THE SOUTHSHORE, AND
0.5-1.0 INCH OVER THE COASTAL MS COUNTIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE MID-70S AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, A
COOLDOWN INTO THE 40-50 RANGE IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
OTHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WEATHER WISE.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES
(30-60%) OF SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHWEST
AREA, BUT CHANCES ARE ALSO MEDIUM (30-50%) FOR AREAS ELSEWHERE.
THIS WILL LIKELY PRESENT LIKE AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS
COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY FOR ROADS OVER WATER FEATURES (SO
A LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA). A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE LAND AND MARINE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT SEEING RIVER FOG NOW THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT
COOLER AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WINTER SEASON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND WE ARE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A VERY SHALLOW RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THAT LASTS INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT RAIN MIGHT OCCUR
MONDAY, BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL BE LIGHT. ASIDE FROM THAT THERE IS
NO RAIN IN THE FORESEEABLE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CONSISTENT PATTERN
GIVES DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THIS TAF SET WILL BE A MESS WITH CIGS AND VIS ALL OVER THE PLACE
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WELL. ALL SITES WILL MOVE FROM LIFR AND IFR
LEVELS THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING. SOME
TERMINALS WILL MANAGE TO REACH VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL QUICKLY LIFT
CIGS AND VIS INTO VFR LEVELS BY LATE EVENING BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP BECOMING RELATIVELY WEAK AT THE SFC WHILE REACHING AROUND
45KT FROM THE NW AT AROUND 2KFT. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL BE SHOWN IN
CURRENT TAF SET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS DUE TO
INCREASED IMPACTS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS AND LAKES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE GOING INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20KTS TO
20-25KTS FOR 20-60NM OFFSHORE GULF ZONES AND OUT OF THE NORTH,
LIKELY NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING CALM WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 40 59 38 / 30 20 0 0
BTR 77 43 63 41 / 30 10 0 0
ASD 74 44 63 39 / 70 10 0 0
MSY 77 50 61 47 / 60 10 0 0
GPT 69 46 61 43 / 80 20 0 0
PQL 71 45 63 38 / 90 20 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ046-056-
057-059-065>067-085-086.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ550-552.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ552.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...DS
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