607
FXUS64 KLIX 242321
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
621 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY, OTHERWISE DRY
AND BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
WE CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS
NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY AND
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH IS HELPING TO BRING SOME
DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WHICH DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TODAY AND EVEN THE MID 60S TOMORROW.
SOME STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, MOST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING THESE, SO RAN A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NBM TO SHOW THIS.
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY IMPACTS TO THE AREA. THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD IS LOOKING DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL TREND JUST A TICK
DOWNWARD, INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MEANWHILE, EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SEE EVEN MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE,
WITH MANY NORTHSHORE AREAS SEEING THE MID 60S SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHS LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WON'T BE A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT
FROM THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE GET CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IN THE
ATLANTIC UP IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR US IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WHILE AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
BRIEFLY A LITTLE CHAOTIC. BY LATER MONDAY, WE START TO SEE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKE OVER AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE RETURN. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
SEE SIMILAR HIGHS AS THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS WHEN WE MAY START TO SEE A PATTERN
SHIFT. GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOT OF DETAILS,
BUT THERE IS STARTING TO BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE IS A
CHANCE WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST REAL FRONT OF THE SEASON MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBALS ACTUALLY START OFF WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
ON LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REGION. THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE SHORTLY AFTER THAT,
WITH THE GFS SLIDING THE TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS BEFORE IT STARTS TO
LIFT IT UP TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE THE EURO LAGS
BEHIND A BIT, AS IT SPINS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION
AND THEN LIFTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL END UP SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO OUR REGION
TOWARDS LATE WEEK, BUT THE GLOBALS HANDLE IT VERY DIFFERENTLY.
THERE IS ALSO THE FACTOR OF HOW THEY HANDLE HURRICANE POLO WHICH
IS OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA BEFORE ITS REMNANTS PUSH INTO THE SW U.S. WON'T GET TOO
FAR INTO THE DETAILS, BUT REGARDLESS THIS WILL START TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO WORK OUT ALL THE DETAILS OF THIS, SO IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL
JUST LOOK FORWARD TO THE CHANCE AT OUR FIRST GOOD FRONT OF THE
SEASON!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS
A DRY NORTHERLY WIND REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, AND
WIND SPEEDS COULD EXCEED 10 KNOTS AT MSY AND NEW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR AVIATORS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY COME BACK DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY AFTER A
PERIOD OF ~15KT WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL GET VERY CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA BUT ONLY VERY BRIEFLY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ~1-
3FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. PAST SATURDAY MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK BENIGN.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...HL
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