837
FXUS64 KLIX 301530
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WARMER WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- HWINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS AND MAY BE IN AND
OUT OF CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. SOME
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3-6PM, WITH THE
LIGHTNING CONCERN INCREASING AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ALL WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MSW
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA, WITH THE FIRST ONE BEING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
VALUES AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES, WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. SO, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH IN THE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT CAPE. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH, SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN IT IS STILL
GREATER THAN 4-5 DAYS OUT IN TIME. MORE DETAILS WILL BE KNOWN AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE MODELS AT
THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S FOR HIGHS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WE COULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME AREA AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST, AND TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT HUM. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
WATERS AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
DOMINATES THE REGION. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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