825
FXUS64 KLIX 010617
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION UNTIL EVERYONE WARMS BACK ABOVE
FREEZING LATE THIS MORNING. ONE MORE NIGHT OF A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND A NEW FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-10 IN SELA.
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER SUNRISE.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
QUIET AND MOSTLY COLD FORECAST. THIS MORNING WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
COLD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS TO
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. WE WILL WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING TODAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY. H925 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND WITH A SUBTLE S/W EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE
DECENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH MIDDAY. BOTH OF THESE WILL HINDER TEMPS
SUGGESTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE CLOUDS WE WILL SEE WILL
ALSO MOVE OUT BEFORE WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND THAT WILL HELP
TO SET THE STAGE FOR ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION, VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEARING IF NOT CLEAR
SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE OPTIMAL. THE
ONE THING TO WATCH IS HOW MUCH WAA WE HAVE IN THE LL AND YES H925
AND H85 BUT THAT MAY BE JUST LATE ENOUGH THAT THE IMPACTS ON
COOLING WOULD BE MINIMAL. WITH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A
MODERATE TO LIGHT FREEZE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MS AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THE
LAKE. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYOU PARISHES AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST WITH S/W RIDGING JUST WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW USE TO SEE SOME DECENT
MODERATION. H925 TEMPS CLIMB TO 6-7C AND THIS SHOULD MIX DOWN
LEADING TO HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING ISSUES BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERHAPS JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL STUCK CLOSELY TO THE NBM BUT THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND GIVEN THE WAY THE
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED AND A STRONG S/W DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE L/W TROUGH WE ARE LEANING TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONT
MEANING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND IF THE FRONT IS ONLY 3-6 HOURS FASTER MORNING LOWS COULD BE 5
DEGREES OR MORE COOLER IN THAT AREA.
TUESDAY WILL BE A RATHER WARM DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK AND
CHANGE. WE WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN MODERATING FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS
AND 9H25 TEMPS WILL BE 9-12C AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 70S. BUT THAT IS
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BE APPROACHING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RE-AMPLIFY AS A REX
BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND A STRONG S/W DROPS DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A WEAK BROAD SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HANG BACK TO THE WSW INTO
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL TX. WITH THE STRONG S/W STILL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE L/W TROUGH IT WILL CAUSE IT TO HOLD BACK AND
SLOWLY DIG WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
UNTIL ALMOST SUNRISE. BUT IT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
TO POOL IN AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WE WILL SEE A DECENT
SHOT OR RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY, LIKELY STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT DOES FINALLY GET A JOLT AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FOR POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BUT IT WILL BE ABV 6K FT AND CAUSE NO ISSUES. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS BUT
GALE CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING AND WE ARE DEALING WITH PREDOMINANTLY
SCY WINDS AND SEAS. SCY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL WATERS AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND WATERS
WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVER ALL WATERS AND WINDS SHOULD FINALLY
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SCY TO END AROUND NOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE IT SLIDES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP LATE MONDAY. WE WILL SEE
ABOUT 36-42 HOURS OF RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT STARTS TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA AND THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WE WILL NEED
SCY HEADLINES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ056>060-065>068-088>090.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ058>060-064>070-
076>078-087>090.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ555-557-575-
577.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ557-575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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