850
FXUS64 KLIX 041017 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
517 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN RELIEF FROM LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND A GENERAL LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING ABOVE NORTHERN GEORGIA
THIS MORNING KEEPING HEIGHTS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE EVEN DOWN HERE.
TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE YESTERDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO RIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WITH
THE SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE, BUT LIKE THE LAST DAY OR SO DESPITE HOT IT WILL
BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE DRY AIR AND AFTERNOON MIXING
TAKING PLACE.
GOING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A KICKER WILL GRAB THE
ULL, OPEN IT UP AND MOVE IT DOWNSTREAM ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE. AS THE SURFACE THE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW USHERING IN MORE MOISTURE AS WELL AS
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO CHANGE VERY MUCH LATE
IN THE PERIOD, BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 105-107F
RESPECTIVELY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A FAIRLY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
KEEP STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DISPLACED WEST OF THE REGION,
WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE MAINTAINS GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED, CONVECTION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INLAND DURING PEAK HEATING. WEAK STEERING
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR SLOW-MOVING, PULSE-TYPE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT WILL
LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE LOCATION TO ANOTHER EACH DAY.
LITTLE MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CURRENTLY
APPARENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND ONLY SUBTLE FORCING, ALLOWING THE
DAILY MARINE AND SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO CONTINUE. ANY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE
COVERAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THEIR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD SOME LOCATIONS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS, BUT WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS HEAT
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. (ME)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
HOUSTON TO DAUPHIN ISLAND. WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT SOUTH OF THERE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS ARE STILL WEST
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY LOSES DEFINITION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND WITH THE DAILY COASTAL
CIRCULATIONS.
THE SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
ALTER FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AS THE EASTERLY FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED LATE
IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND TO FAVOR
THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUNDS, TIDAL LAKES, AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS
LATER IN THE DAY. (ME)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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