554
FXUS64 KLIX 151811
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
111 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT
FOR BRIEFLY LOWER MVFR TO IFR IN PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CARRIED
MOSTLY VCSH AT THE TAF AIRPORTS, HOWEVER AMENDMENTS FOR GREATER
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS BASED ON GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AREAS AND
TS POTENTIAL FROM RADAR WILL BE CONSIDERED. KNEW STARTED OUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN +TSRA, HOWEVER
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 1830Z OR SO. A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS
STARTING DURING THE 04-10Z PERIOD TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST PERSISTENT AND PROLONGED AREA OF LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT KMCB, KHDC AND KBTR WHERE
THE IFR COULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 812 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING CONTINUES THE SLOW UPWARD TREND OF
MOISTURE. TWO DRY SLOTS ARE SEEN IN THE COLUMN WITH THE SATURATED
LAYERS BEING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOUT 3KM TO 5KM AGL. WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND AT THE SURFACE IT'S
SOUTHERLY. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT
STILL TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY STORMS THAT
FORM TODAY. SEVERAL PROMINENT TEMP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT. -BL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/
SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH
COMPLETELY THOUGH THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWS AND STALLS ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
FLORIDA. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOCKED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW SITTING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GET A TRUE
DRYING TREND FOR THE AREA OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD
OF DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BASICALLY JUST WASHES ITSELF OUT.
LONG TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY
SATURDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THOUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FIND THEIR WAY
INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO LOWERED
CEILINGS TO AROUND BKN008 ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT BUT
PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OVC030+.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST BY TODAY INTO TUESDAY AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING
WINDS TO RISE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. BASICALLY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE OVER THE MARINE AREAS VIA WIND
CONDITIONS STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE: GREEN
DEPLOYED: NONE
ACTIVATION: NONE
ACTIVITIES: NONE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN; DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 65 75 60 / 50 40 40 30
BTR 84 67 77 62 / 50 50 40 30
ASD 86 71 83 66 / 60 40 40 40
MSY 85 74 82 70 / 70 40 40 40
GPT 84 73 84 69 / 50 40 30 30
PQL 85 72 85 69 / 50 50 20 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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