209
FXUS64 KLIX 120524
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
CURRENTLY WATCHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE FRONT IS SLOWING AND SHOULD ANCHOR NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF
MOISTURE POOLING IS TAKING SHAPE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO
KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS LEADING TO SOME
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE GULF ZONES. THE ADJACENT LAND ZONES ARE TOO
SEEING FOG, BUT MUCH OF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES LOOK TO STAY JUST
OFFSHORE...SO NO NEED FOR A LANDBASED FOG HEADLINE AT LEAST FOR
NOW.
THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE H5
PATTERN IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT ORIENTATION. ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, BUT STILL GENERALLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID FEB. IN TERMS OF FOG THE SIGNAL IS A BIT
BETTER ON THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LEESIDE TROUGH
OF THE ROCKIES. BY THIS POINT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE AR OZARKS LEAVING OUR
REGION WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE SURFACE LOW SPREADS
EASTWARD, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. TAKING A LOOK AT THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS, CONSIDERING
IT LOOKS TO BE A MORE OVERNIGHT EVENT, SOME INSTABILITY QUESTIONS
DO ARISE. HOWEVER, SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A PROBLEM AT ALL. AN
H85 LLJ OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH THE
SURFACE LOW HELPING BACK SURFACE WINDS, SRH VALUES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS DURING THIS TIME WILL THE
CONVECTION BE SURFACE BASED? GLOBALS SUGGEST MAYBE, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO BOTH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND A TORNADO THREAT. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES JUST
NORTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR, WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAK CONVECTION WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
AS FOR WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, KEPT THEM UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THESE LEVELS AN ADVISORY WOULD
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHSHORE AND IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY LATE SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM BEING REPLACED WITH A VERY MODEST SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MO OZARKS. THIS SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST BY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARM RETURN FLOW
TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES PASS THROUGH, THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS ONLY MODESTLY DRY/COOL SO IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...MORE SO CIG/LOW STRATUS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE AT
LEAST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING OR SO. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
TRANSITION BEHIND A FRONT TO A MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE
THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OR EVEN POTENTIALLY GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ552-555-570-
572-575.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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