702
FXUS64 KLIX 291024
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
524 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARMER WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK. NO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY FOR MOST WATERS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SET UP RAIN CHANCES IN STAGES. FIRST, DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SFC HIGH NEAR
THE SE CONUS COAST TODAY. A SUBTLE DENSITY GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
EXIST FROM NW TO SE ACROSS LOUISIANA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A
WEAK SFC TROUGH ORIENTED FROM THE TEXARKANA REGION THROUGH SELA
BY MONDAY WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO HELP PRODUCE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SH/TS, ALTHOUGH THE TS PART HERE WILL BE
ISOLATED. THIS TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS PEAK AFTER
MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE
REASON THAT CHANCES INCREASE EACH DAY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN. THIS
WILL ALSO BE MAINLY HELPED BY HEATING, SO IT SETS UP AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY THAT ARE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
NON-EXISTANT TODAY AND VERY LOW MONDAY BUT NOT ZERO, IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE MAIN ISSUE WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
UPPER RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WON'T BE GOING MUCH OF
ANYWHERE THIS WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALL WEEK. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEK, BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA. ONE SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY, WITH
THE SECOND AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WE DON'T EXPECT A FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY
TO ENHANCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. THE MOST
FAVORED TIME WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, BUT
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN A FEW PLACES. DON'T EXPECT ANY OF
THE DAYS TO BE A TOTAL WASHOUT, AND WE DON'T HAVE ANY INDICATIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT,
MOST AREAS COULD USE SOME RAIN, THOUGH. A THIRD SHORTWAVE COULD
APPROACH THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY, BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR
FORECAST RANGE.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
NORMALS AROUND THIS TIME ARE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS 50-55.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA
TODAY. SOME -RA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS COVER.
TSRA CAN NOT BE LEFT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT HIGHEST OF WHAT
CHANCES THERE ARE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO THE LOW END OF MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SITES LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE EASING BACK TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE EASTERN WATERS DUE TO THESE WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. FROM MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE WATERS AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES DOMINATES THE REGION.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-555-557-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ534-536-
538-555-557-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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