640
FXUS64 KLIX 311048
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
548 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- WARMER WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS AND MAY BE IN AND
OUT OF CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SH/TS EXPECTED TODAY. THESE SHOULD BE OVER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AREAS THAN YESTERDAY. BUT MOST PLACES WILL
HAVE A UNIFORMLY EQUAL CHANCE AT GETTING SOME RAIN TODAY. SOME OF
THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVENTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT LIKLY, A STRONG STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SAME
SCENARIO DOES NOT CHANGE FOR WED. THE DIURNAL SETUP WILL SHOW
STORM COVERAGE MORE DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THAN NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH THE REGION RESIDING UNDER A RATHER MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN
PLACE. A SURFACE FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR
REGION, BUT QUICKLY STALLS EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR JUST UPSTREAM
AS THE MODEST FLOW ALOFT COLLAPSES. WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION, SOME RESPECTABLE CAPE (BUT RATHER LACKLUSTER WINDS)
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
LACKLUSTER DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BREAK IN POPS LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY RESIDES OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
CWFA, SOME DAYTIME HEATING COULD SPARK OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY, BUT AGAIN THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR TOO WEAK. WITH
HIGHER-END PWATS FROM 1.6-1.8" HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST
LOCALLY. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT AT THIS
JUNCTURE, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
ANOTHER FRONT, THIS ONE A BIT STRONGER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY ON EASTER SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RATHER CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND LIKELY QPF SIGNAL ASSOCIATED THE BOUNDARY.
TOO SOON YET TO KNOW IF THERE WILL BE A MEANINGFUL SEVERE THREAT,
BUT CLIMO AND SYNOPTICS POINT TO A NONZERO SEVERE CHANCE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FRONT CLEARS, WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE RAIN
CHANCES TO FINISH UP THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 70S/DAY AND 50S/NIGHT RESPECTIVELY, WHICH IS A BIT COOLER
THAN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WHERE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/DAY AND
UPPER 60S/NIGHT ARE COMMON. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL BECOME ALL VFR BY MID MORNING
TODAY. A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OF RA AND TSRA WILL BE AROUND TO SHOW
IN CURRENT TAF SET AS WELL WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME IFR CONDITIONS
WHILE ONGOING AT ANY TERMINAL. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH
SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY PUSHING MORE SITES INTO IFR. RA AND
TSRA WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DOMINATES THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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