734
FXUS64 KLIX 220916
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HANG IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOMEONE GETTING A PEAK OF SUN AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDY
SKIES WILL DEFINITELY BE THE CASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SFC LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. AS WE HAVE BEEN
DISCUSSING, IF THE SFC LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THINGS CHANGE.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE BUT NOTHING HUGE. THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL NOW BE
UP TO 30+KFT WITH A 500MB TEMP OF -15C. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO HELP
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WITH THE HIGHEST TOPS THAT CAN BE PRODUCED SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING HAS MOVED UP BUT IT REMAINS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE AT 20% MAINLY ALONG WEST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM INTERSTATE 55 TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THEN EAST
ALONG THE COAST. THE CHANCES OF LIGHTNING ARE HIGHER THE FARTHER
SOUTH ONE MOVES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF. A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW HEAVY BOUTS THROWN IN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WHOLE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD START AFTER SUNSET TODAY TO THE WEST
AND END LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO THE SE. THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL DAY
RAIN WITH TALLIES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AREA WIDE AND HIGHER TOWARD THE
COAST. NO SEVERE WX WITH THIS ONE, BUT IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD DAY TO GET A
BLANKET WITH A GOOD BOOK OR MOVIE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MONDAY WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND
CLOUDY SKIES BUT THE SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL WEEK. A WARMING TREND
WILL BE IN FULL SWING FINALLY REACHING THE MID 70S BY WED. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THU WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES AND AT BEST
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT MAINLY COOLING US BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. NO REAL ARCTIC BLAST WITH THIS ONE. FROM HERE OUT, IT WILL
GET HARDER TO BRING THE AREA TO FREEZING. KEY WORD HERE IS "HARDER"
BECAUSE IT CAN DEFINITELY STILL OCCUR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
CIGS ABOVE 050 ALL DAY TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FURTHER INTO IFR LEVELS
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COMING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
BEFORE DAYLIGHT SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A SFC LOW NEAR BROWNSVILLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ENE ALONG THE COAST
CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO E TODAY AND REMAIN AROUND 15KT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE E SUN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE SE LATE SUNDAY BRINGING THE SH/TS WITH IT
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN GULF BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE
COMPASS IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
TIME WILL BE 20 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. THERE WILL BE A FEW
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NUMEROUS STORMS. NE WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL MOVE IN AS THE LOW MOVES
SE SUNDAY EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE EASING
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TUE INTO WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 55 37 49 39 / 10 30 100 40
BTR 56 43 52 43 / 10 60 100 40
ASD 59 42 54 43 / 0 30 100 60
MSY 57 46 54 47 / 10 40 100 60
GPT 59 42 52 43 / 0 20 100 60
PQL 60 40 57 43 / 0 20 100 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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