217  
FXUS64 KLIX 180932  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
332 AM CST FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WARM AND  
HUMID DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY  
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10/12 IN SELA AND  
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THIS SETUP IS A CONDITIONAL CASE AS  
THE INSTABILITY IS NOT ROBUST BUT THE SHEAR IS HIGH. GUIDANCE  
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS THE  
PRIMARY THREAT. THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW BUT A ISOLATED TORNADO  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND  
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND  
BREEZY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL ONLY  
BE A GLANCING BLOW AND SHORT LIVED AS WE WARM UP QUICKLY ON  
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE FREEZING TEMPS ON THE NORTHSHORE AND ACROSS  
SW MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND MID 30S MORE THAN  
LIKELY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE HIGH MODERATES AND SHIFTS  
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE  
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVC002 FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND THIS  
DECK COULD LAST THROUGH 16Z. A CEILING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF BKN010  
MAY STAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND FALL BACK TO OVC003 BY  
DARK AGAIN. VIS WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING AND  
AGAIN FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. BUT WIND SPEEDS BEING TO RISE SATURDAY  
MORNING AND COULD HELP WITH VIS ISSUES. TSRA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH SITE SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FOG WILL REMAIN OVER MOST MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING AND MAY BE  
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EVEN NOON. WEAK FLOW  
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
RISE BY SUNSET AND SHOULD BE UP TO 20+KT BY MIDNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES TO  
THE NORTHERN GULF AFTER ITS PASSAGE AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED  
FOR THIS STARTING AT 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS  
SHOULD EASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO  
BRING RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT MAY  
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG  
NORTHERLY WINDS AGAIN.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE  
DEPLOYED: NONE  
ACTIVATION: NONE  
ACTIVITIES: GALE WATCH AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR  
EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;  
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
EXCESSIVE RAIN; DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL  
SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 67 59 64 32 / 10 70 90 10  
BTR 70 60 65 33 / 10 60 90 10  
ASD 69 60 66 35 / 10 20 90 10  
MSY 71 61 67 38 / 10 20 90 10  
GPT 65 59 64 36 / 10 20 90 10  
PQL 67 59 66 38 / 10 30 90 10  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-  
039-040-046>050-056>072.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-534-  
538-550-552-555.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY  
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-  
077-080>082.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ534-538-  
550-552-555.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY  
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 

 
 

 
 
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