747
FXUS64 KLIX 061126
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
526 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING
ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
- HIGHER WINDS (15-25KT) AND SEAS (5-10FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE 20NM
OR FARTHER OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL BAROTROPIC PATTERN IS CONTROLLING THE NICE WEATHER.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
RETURN FLOW CARRYING GULF MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILES, STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION, AND
VERY CALM AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE
PATCHY FOG AND SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG REQUIRING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
AREA OF CONCERN ALL THREE DAYS IS NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR,
INCLUDING COASTAL MS COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE WARMING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND OUT OF THE
EAST TONIGHT AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 912 PM CST WED NOV 5
2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE POLAR JETSTREAM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FAVOR FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THAT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO DIVE OUT OF
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND PHASE INTO A DEEP, LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ARRIVING TO THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY CLEARS THE AREA OUT AND LOWERS DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. POPS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONT DEPENDING ON MOISTURE TRENDS AND TIMING, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT.
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING A NORTHERLY SWITCH
TO THE WINDS AND AN OVERALL GRADUAL COLD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
REGIME AS THE COLDEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT'S
PRESENCE REALLY WON'T BE FELT BY MOST UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE 50S.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING NORTHERLY WINDS, A STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD DRAINAGES REGIME WILL ALLOW MANY AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TO REACH FREEZING OR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ON TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND EACH DAY BEGINNING
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, IT'S UNCLEAR GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHETHER THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MORE CONSISTENT COLD FRONTS WILL PERSIST OR
WHETHER WE SEE A PATTERN FLIP TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH
IS MORE FAVORABLE TO WARMER, AND MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER BY
MID-MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
MIXTURE OF VFR CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
TERMINALS EXPERIENCING FOG. UNFORTUNATELY IT'S BEEN VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOG IS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE, BUT IT
SEEMS TO BE STICKING CLOSEST TO THE RIVERS/DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT IT
COULD EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. SO FOR AREAS THAT
ARE HAVING FOG PUT IT AS PREVAILING, OTHERWISE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR ANYWHERE THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME POTENTIAL. ONCE THE SUN RISES,
THE FOG CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY THEN ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MARINE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT
MORE ONSHORE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WE'LL
ALSO SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE PRIMARILY DURING
THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE, THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. BY SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MARINE WATERS INTRODUCING STRONG
OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR GULF WATERS, AND WAVES/SEAS RESPONDING TO AROUND 7-
10FT FOR 20-60NM ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR WINDS AND WAVE/SEAS TO RELAX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 59 80 61 / 0 20 50 10
BTR 79 62 83 63 / 0 20 40 10
ASD 79 60 80 62 / 0 20 50 10
MSY 79 66 83 66 / 0 20 50 10
GPT 76 62 78 64 / 0 20 50 10
PQL 79 60 79 62 / 0 20 50 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-065>068-071-076-079>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083-086.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...BL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page