363
FXUS64 KLIX 251630
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
REMEMBER WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
- THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT
HEAT THREATS THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
STILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING
IF POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, INCREASING HUMIDITIES. PW VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
GENERALLY, DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS (40-50MPH). SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT STRONG STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 103-108 DEGREE RANGE. WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE WEEKEND, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO OPPRESSIVE. SO, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MSW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
LINGERS OVER THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BUT COULD
HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS (40-50MPH). BUT
WITH HIGHER PWS AROUND 2 INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND INSIDE OF ANY TRAINING OR SLOW MOVING
STORMS.
IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST, SO IF THE PATTERN CHANGES A LITTLE, IT COULD BE
DRIER THAN THE CURRENT FOREAST. WE WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT MOST AREA AIRPORTS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS THAT WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND VARYING BETWEEN
SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EVERY DAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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