554  
FXUS64 KLIX 151811  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
111 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT  
FOR BRIEFLY LOWER MVFR TO IFR IN PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA. HAVE CARRIED  
MOSTLY VCSH AT THE TAF AIRPORTS, HOWEVER AMENDMENTS FOR GREATER  
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS BASED ON GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AREAS AND  
TS POTENTIAL FROM RADAR WILL BE CONSIDERED. KNEW STARTED OUT THE  
TAF PERIOD WITH VERY LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN +TSRA, HOWEVER  
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 1830Z OR SO. A MORE  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR  
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS  
STARTING DURING THE 04-10Z PERIOD TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST PERSISTENT AND PROLONGED AREA OF LOWER  
IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT KMCB, KHDC AND KBTR WHERE  
THE IFR COULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON  
TUESDAY. 22/TD  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 812 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/  
 
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...  
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING CONTINUES THE SLOW UPWARD TREND OF  
MOISTURE. TWO DRY SLOTS ARE SEEN IN THE COLUMN WITH THE SATURATED  
LAYERS BEING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOUT 3KM TO 5KM AGL. WINDS  
ARE PRIMARILY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND AT THE SURFACE IT'S  
SOUTHERLY. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT  
STILL TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY STORMS THAT  
FORM TODAY. SEVERAL PROMINENT TEMP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT. -BL  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR  
AREA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE  
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH  
COMPLETELY THOUGH THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY SLOWS AND STALLS ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER  
FLORIDA. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOCKED THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT CUT OFF LOW SITTING OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER  
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GET A TRUE  
DRYING TREND FOR THE AREA OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. MOISTURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO  
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO  
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD  
OF DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMING  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE  
NORTHERN GULF AND BASICALLY JUST WASHES ITSELF OUT.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN  
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD  
OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONGER COLD  
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY  
SATURDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THOUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE  
START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
AVIATION...  
 
VFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FIND THEIR WAY  
INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO LOWERED  
CEILINGS TO AROUND BKN008 ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT BUT  
PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OVC030+.  
 
MARINE...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST BY TODAY INTO TUESDAY AND BECOME  
QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING  
WINDS TO RISE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. BASICALLY  
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE OVER THE MARINE AREAS VIA WIND  
CONDITIONS STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE START  
OF THE NEW WEEK.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT...  
DSS CODE: GREEN  
DEPLOYED: NONE  
ACTIVATION: NONE  
ACTIVITIES: NONE  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR  
EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS;  
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
EXCESSIVE RAIN; DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL  
SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 82 65 75 60 / 50 40 40 30  
BTR 84 67 77 62 / 50 50 40 30  
ASD 86 71 83 66 / 60 40 40 40  
MSY 85 74 82 70 / 70 40 40 40  
GPT 84 73 84 69 / 50 40 30 30  
PQL 85 72 85 69 / 50 50 20 40  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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