322
FXUS64 KLIX 152342
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL SHIFT TOWARD INCREASING HEAT, WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING, WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS NEAR INTERSTATE 40. MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION ON RADAR
LOCALLY THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER,
WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A GOOD THING IN HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS VERIFIED BY THIS MORNING'S LIX
SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS SATURATION ABOVE 13,000 FEET.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER LOUISIANA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER
FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO, AND MAY LIMIT SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ON THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST. IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THAT SETUP TENDS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ANY CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED, AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55. HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S, AND
THEN IN THE MID 90S FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FALL JUST SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH WE'LL BE GETTING CLOSE IN SOME
AREAS BY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EVENTUALLY TAKE THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND SHEAR IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, WITH
ONLY LOW END POPS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IF THERE'S A DAY WITH BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS, IT'S
LIKELY TO BE ON MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY MATERIALIZE, HIGHS
WOULD BE BLUNTED A FEW DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S, ALTHOUGH
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW URBAN AREAS REMAIN ABOVE 80
DEGREES OVERNIGHT ON AT LEAST ONE NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OVERALL GRADIENT
IS RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH IS WHY WINDS STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 10 KTS AND
SEAS/WAVES MOSTLY UNDER A COUPLE FEET. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
MAY BE NECESSARY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...RW
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