639
FXUS64 KLIX 211816
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- THE WARM UP WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IS HERE. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70'S.
- CHRISTMAS DAY IS FIVE DAYS OUT, GIVING US BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. IT IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND DRY WITH A
REASONABLE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A
STRAY 80 THROWN IN STILL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN, IF
SANTA IS CHECKING OUR FORECAST, I'M STILL ADVISING YOU WEAR A
HAWAIIAN SHIRT AND FLIP FLOPS FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE VISIT TO
OUR AREA; AND DON'T EXPECT ANY GUMBO, IT SURE ISN'T GUMBO
WEATHER! ;)
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. LOOKING AT THE MODELS, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVERALL IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. OVERALL, A MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
AHEAD.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
(30-50%) CHANCES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FOG
CONDITIONS OVERPERFORMED THIS MORNING AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS, IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER WATER (I.E. RIVERS, PONDS,
MARSH, ETC.). A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PLAN EXTRA TIME ON YOUR
COMMUTE AND TRAVEL. MSW
MSW
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEK, ENHANCING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LONG TERM FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE DRY, LOOKING AT THE MODELS. SO, DRY AND WARM FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS. SO, YOU MAY NEED TO BE
PREPARED TO BE WEARING SHORTS AND TSHIRTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR ANY CELEBRATIONS. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. TEMPO GROUPS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT MOST
AREA AIRPORTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO
SCATTERED LIGHT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO LIFR AND IFR AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AROUND
DAYBREAK FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE WEEKEND A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES AND WE SEE EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT GENERALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY
MONRING ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PROTECTED LAKE AND
SOUNDS AND THE OPEN LA/MS COAST. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 SM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WE HAVE A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS OVER
OUR EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND ASSOCIATED
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 3-4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 59 71 54 74 / 50 40 0 0
BTR 62 75 56 77 / 40 40 0 0
ASD 59 71 53 74 / 50 10 0 0
MSY 63 74 58 74 / 50 20 0 0
GPT 60 69 56 72 / 40 10 0 0
PQL 56 70 51 74 / 30 10 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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