353
FXUS64 KLIX 032309
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREAS. PLEASE AVOID NAVIGATING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE IN A SMALLER VESSEL UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
- LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ALL WEEK.
DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL PROBABLY REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PER LATEST SURFACE OBS, THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE TO
JUST NORTH OF MCCOMB. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID
70S. MODERATE COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THAT SURFACE WARMING IS
YIELDING A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE IN THE 850MB-500MB
LEVEL. SHEAR THOUGH, IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. SURE 0-6KM IS DECENT BUT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROBABLY NOT EVEN 30 KNOTS. SO THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
DECENT UPDRAFTS BUT INSTABILITY ALONE HASN'T BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS LOCALLY.
CONVECTION TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY
OFFSHORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO ON RADAR AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES.
COOLER/DRIER AIR COMES IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH UPPER 60S WHICH IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY JAN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BE
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. SO WHATEVER COOLING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND WE'RE BACK UP IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS WILL DROP
BRIEFLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO LOW CEILINGS,
BUT WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER THAT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MIDMORNING. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A
PROGRESSIVE SURFACE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RESULT IN WEAKENING THAT
GRADIENT SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEND TO SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 43 65 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 45 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 47 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 51 65 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 66 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 48 67 45 69 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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