959
FXUS64 KLIX 191756
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1256 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WHICH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE US WHILE A TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA AND CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE KLIX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A
DRY COLUMN OUTSIDE OF THE LONE SATURATED LAYER ALOFT NEAR 600MB. BUT
WITH 0.5" PW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MEANS LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER AND DEFINITELY NO RAIN.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER
EAST, HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE INCREMENTALLY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS SURFACE RIDGE CENTER MOVES EAST AS WELL. THAT WIND
DIRECTION WILL START TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS JUMP UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FROM THIS MORNING. NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE.
LATEST FORECAST IS COLDER THAN MAV/MET FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH IS ROUGHLY WHERE THIS MORNING'S LOWS FELL, SO DIDN'T MAKE
ANY CHANGES ON THAT ASPECT. BUT DID CONSIDER IT.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE
MODERATING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE WEST SPREADS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THIS WHICH HELPS BRING UP THOSE
TEMPS. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60 AND HIGHS IN THE
80S, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY. WHILE IT MAY STUNT HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY, NOT EXPECTING PERCEIVABLE IMPACTS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA GENERALLY STAYS PUT AND REMAINED EXPANDED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL US.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR
CATEGORY AT KMCB, KBTR AND KHUM NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTS.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE CENTERING MORE
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE COME BETTER ESTABLISHED THROUGH SUNDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL THEN
DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF AGAIN, RESULTING IN
SUBSIDING WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE/SEAS IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
MEFFER
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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