303
FXUS64 KLIX 010509
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1109 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
- PATCHY FOG WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55 AND
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW, A FEW HEAVIER
STORMS COULD PROVIDE MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
BIGGEST SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE VARIED ON HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE,
GENERALLY THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING PROBABILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO WATER AND THE COASTAL LA/MS. DUE TO THIS, ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. THINKING
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO RAIN CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (EASILY 7-10 DEGREES) FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET UP AROUND TUESDAY
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. RIGHT NOW WITH PW BEING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE
AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF US INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION, THINKING ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONG DEEPENING TROUGH ENTERING
THE CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE'S STILL SOME OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY BEING AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE, PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED INLAND. SO IT'S A SIGNAL FOR A MUCH MORE
WET PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH AND
HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT IT WOULD BE STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN, SO KEEP
AN EYE ON FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE
FOG ENTERING THE AREA WILL CAUSE BOUNCES INTO MVFR/IFR OR LOWER,
ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS CLOSER TO WATER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG ELSEWHERE BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY
BE MORE PATCHY AND LIGHT. FOR THE REST, FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, IS
FORECASTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID
MORNING AT THE LATEST AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THEN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW STARTING
TUESDAY WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CHANCES OF
RAIN RETURN FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND MID WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ039-
056>060-064>071-076>082-087>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
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