753
FXUS64 KLIX 100339
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1039 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ALL HURRICANE, TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
COUNTIES AND PARISHES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE STORM SURGE
WARNING. THIS IS GENERALLY COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA STATE LINE. INUNDATION OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
WITHIN FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THE ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-MORNING SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ALL PRODUCTS BEING UPDATED WITH THE CANCELLATION OF ALL HURRICANE,
TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS FOR OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. THIS DISCUSSION WILL ALSO COVER FORECAST CHANGES
THAT WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE USUAL PACKAGE UPDATE THAT IS
TRANSMITTED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM CDT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH ALABAMA THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY SUNRISE,
AND THEN GO CALM OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEYOND THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER 80S. WITH FULL SUNSHINE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 90S IN A FEW AREAS.
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING
NIGHTTIME HOURS, LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN'S 80
DEGREE WATER COULD HOLD THE NEW ORLEANS AREA IN THE 60S OR CLOSER
TO 70.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS REPLACING THE STORM SURGE WARNING
THROUGH THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS SOME MINOR INUNDATION COULD
STILL OCCUR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK COULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EVEN AT THAT POINT, CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IF THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED,
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED. IF THE
COLD FROM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. AS ISAIAS MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL GO WITH IT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT, WITH WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE DURING MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AWAY FROM THE COAST WHILE IT WEAKENS. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
WARNINGS WERE DROPPED, AND REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. IT MAY TAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR SEAS TO LOWER TO A COMFORTABLE LEVEL FOR OPERATIONS, BUT FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS
UNTIL PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, OR LESS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ058-070-
076>078-084-087-091-098.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-
543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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