396
FXUS64 KLIX 080429
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYS AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW, BUT A FEW
STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEW
LOCATIONS MAY GET STORMS WHERE THEY DID NOT YESTERDAY AND SOME
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY WILL GET HIT AGAIN TODAY. VERY
TYPICAL FOR SUMMER. HIGHER PW VALUES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN WAVES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE HIGHER
VALUES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND LOWER AT NIGHT GIVING WAY
TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM ENVIRONMENT. THE WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT
DIFFERENT AS HIGH PW VALUES COME IN AND STAY FOR A FEW DAYS WHICH
MEANS MORE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. EACH DAY WILL
CARRY THE SAME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WHICH IS PRETTY
MUCH EVERY DAY THERE ARE ANY STORMS PRESENT DURING THE SUMMER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THERE WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN BETWEEN THAT
RIDGE AND ONE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THAT WEAKNESS OR
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, INTO OUR AREA BY
MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (2.10 INCHES) AND POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT AROUND 2.3 INCHES ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO NEAR THE
MEAN (1.7 INCHES) BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE (SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS) CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING CONVECTIVELY FAVORED TIMES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PEAK HEATING HOURS OVER LAND ZONES, LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING IN MARINE AREAS. OF COURSE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT HIGH, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR 5 OR 6 DAYS
FROM NOW IS PROBLEMATICAL. AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT LATE ON
TUESDAY, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, AND A
LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND DCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG, SO THE WIND THREAT WILL
INCREASE.
STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER WARM ON SUNDAY, AS STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS PROBABLY 90 TO 95. AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASES MONDAY AND LIKELY DEVELOPS A LITTLE EARLIER, SO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE FROM
THE TUESDAY GLOBAL OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
EACH OTHER, SO THERE'S NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE NBM
NUMBERS. WON'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT, THE NUMBERS SAY IT'S BORDERLINE AT
BEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TSRA TODAY WILL BE TIMED IN PROB30 GROUPS AS COVERAGE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. TERMINALS THAT ARE IMPACTED
BY TSRA WILL PRODUCE AT MOST MVFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY. ALL
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTSIDE TSRA, VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A WSW DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10KT BUT A FEW DAYS COULD RISE TO
NEAR 15KT. WINDS SHIFT TO DUE SOUTH THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
WEEKEND BUT REMAIN AROUND 10KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY, MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW MAY BE
STRONG PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, WITH
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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