712
FXUS64 KLIX 161851
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
151 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- SUN AND TEMPERATURE RELATED HEALTH RISKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO USE SUNSCREEN AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE ENJOYING ACTIVITIES LIKE SPORTS AND
FESTIVALS.
- MOST VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 1/4 MILE, SO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT, PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD
OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE THIS AND FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AROUND
RIVER SYSTEMS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND A
HEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE CWFA WILL REMAIN UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL, MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ONLY ISSUE MAY BE
SOME MORNING FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL. ALOFT, HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH GIVEN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF, WHICH WILL MEAN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE.
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EYES WILL SHIFT UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH SPREADS
EASTWARD. OVERALL THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION, BUT THE GLOBALS HAVE BUMPED UP THE QPF SIGNAL JUST A
BIT MORE WITH THE RECENT CYCLES. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. THE MS GULF COAST IS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE
RAIN CHANCES DROP THE FURTHER EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER YOU GO.
BEHIND THE FRONT A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN,
WHICH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MID TO LATE APRIL. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AS THE NEW WORKWEEK STARTS THERE BECOMES SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. GFS IS A BIT MORE WET BY TUESDAY AS AN H5
TROUGH SPREADS EAST OVER THE REGION HELPING DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE ECMWF HOWEVER, IS DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITTING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WHICH EVENTUALLY
SPREADS EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCY IN POPS, SURFACE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD US INTO OUR NEXT
WARMING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CYCLE. THAT SAID, IFR CONDITIONS FOR INLAND
TERMINALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VIS REDUCTIONS DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE. ANY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THERE RESIDES A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHERE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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