612
FXUS64 KLIX 110552
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY
ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND NOON OVER WATERS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING, WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. RIDGING WAS ALSO NOTED
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
SAN FRANCISCO, AND ANOTHER WELL WEST OF OREGON. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA, WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS, WITH A FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. ANY ECHOES ON RADAR THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, AS WE AREN'T SEEING ANY RETURNS BELOW ABOUT 8,000 FEET.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING, AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-10F
WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, CONFIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN FOG DEVELOPING. IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT WE CANCEL THE
ADVISORY PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS, BUT ANY RAIN
AMOUNTS THAT DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIGHT. EVEN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AREN'T PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN
CLEARING OUT MOISTURE, SO CLOUD COVER COULD COMPLICATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A LITTLE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN TOMORROW NIGHT.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
VERIFYING ABOVE THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE FROM LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BATON ROUGE AND NEW ORLEANS ONLY MISSED THAT BY A DEGREE
ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY DOES LOOK A FEW DEGREES COOLER, BUT STILL IN
THE 70S IN MANY AREAS. MOST LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMES THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN THAT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A LOCAL COOL-SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. MODELS
DEPICT A PRETTY UNIQUE EVOLUTION FROM TODAY TO FRIDAY. THERE ARE 2
CLOSED UPPER LOWS IN THE EASTERN PAC, ONE WEST OF OREGON AND THE
OTHER FARTHER SOUTH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE
WED, THESE FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SIDE BY SIDE. THE 24-36
HOURS AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE FASCINATING TRANSITION TAKES PLACE.
MODELS SHOW THEM BEGINNING A FUJIWARA INTERACTION AND ULTIMATELY
PHASE INTO A SINGLE SYSTEM, COMING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S INTERESTING IS
TO THE NORTH IS ZONAL FLOW, WHICH MEANS THE THAT UPPER LOW'S EASTERN
PROGRESSION IS MOSTLY CARRIED OUT VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THAT
DEFINITELY DOES BRING A LITTLE POTENTIAL QUESTIONING OF IF MODELS
HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THAT FEATURE'S EASTWARD SPEED AND THUS TIMING
OF WHEN IT'D REACH THE CWA.
AS THIS UPPER LOW REACHES NORTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING, THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
IS FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MS. IF THIS TRACK VERIFIES, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, AND IF THAT WERE TAKEN VERBATIM, IT
MIGHT BE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE CONVECTION REACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST.
KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE, THOUGH NOT UNCOMMON FOR COOL-
SEASON SEVERE WX EVENT. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES IS GENERALLY WHAT MODELS DEPICT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS 50+ KT FLOW NEAR 850 MB AND 60+ KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH
AMPLE HELICITY. LOOKING AT THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE, DEFINITELY NOT
COMPLETELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT MORESO ABOUT 90 DEGREES OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB+. ALL OF THIS WOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH A
VERSION OF SQUALL LINE OR QLCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR. EVEN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S; THE NOCTURNAL TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
MAY KEEP SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MODEST. THATS WHAT GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW AND METEOROLOGICALLY MAKES SENSE. THAT SAID, THIS IS THE TYPE
OF HIGH-SHEAR/LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT THAT CAN STILL SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS AND QLCS TORNADOES WITH FORCED ACCENT FROM THAT UPPER LOW
BEING SO CLOSE TO THE CWA. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REALLY
HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST
INTO ALABAMA. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DON'T BECOME SEVERE, IT COULD BE
FAIRLY WINDY SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT EVENT ON A VERY BUSY WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF MARDI GRAS ACTIVITIES, REALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS ONE.
DUE TO THE FACT THIS SYSTEM TAKES SUCH A LOW LATITUDE TRACK, WE
REALLY WON'T SEE MUCH OF A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. SURE
IT'LL BE DRIER BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY BKN-OVC
CIRRUS THIS EVENING.
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE TERMINALS IS WHETHER WE GET FOG TO
DEVELOP. JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE
THREAT OF DENSE FOG, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM, AND THE FACT WE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. HAVE DELAYED LOWER VISIBILITIES
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE, WITH MVFR MORE APPROPRIATE, AND WILL
DEFINITELY NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW AIRFIELD
MINIMA (VLIFR). THAT BEING SAID, IF WE DO LOSE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, IT WOULDN'T TAKE LONG FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AS WE
COOL. ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAY BE A GREATER THREAT OF LOW CONDITIONS TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM (NEXT COUPLE DAYS) WILL BE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD, CONFIDENCE HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING, AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK, AND
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND AGAIN THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY,
BUT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ057>060-064-
068>070-076>084-086>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW/ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page