221
FXUS64 KLIX 260550
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1150 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
1. EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS.
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT HOME FIRES ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
WINTER MONTHS DUE TO INCREASED USE OF FIREPLACES AND PORTABLE
HEATERS. FOLLOW ALL RECOMMENDED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN HEATING
YOUR HOME DURING THIS COLD SNAP.
2. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS TONIGHT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND THOSE OPERATING SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
3. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE EXACT THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PLUMMETING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
ARE MOSTLY RUNNING IN MID 20S TO MID 30S, WITH WIND CHILLS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AREA-WIDE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, LEADING TO DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS BY MORNING, AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY WILL START OUT UTTERLY FRIGID - WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT AT 20-25 DEGREES FOR MOST PLACES, AND
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. ACROSS THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AND EXTREME SE LA, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST PLACES.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BAD ENOUGH WITHOUT WIND, BUT WHEN
COMBINED WITH WINS OF 10-15 MPH, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST IN THE
TEENS AND POTENTIALLY SINGLE DIGITS SOME PLACES. THOSE WITH A NEED
TO BE OUTDOORS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DRESS WARMLY, WEARING
SEVERAL LAYERS, AND BEING SURE TO MINIMIZE EXPOSED SKIN BY ALSO
WEARING GLOVES, SCARVES, AND HATS.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BUT EVEN WITH FULL
SUN BY AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE A COLD DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 40 DEGREES MOST PLACES, AND WILL ONLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS IN SOME NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT COLD
TO BEGIN WITH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AGAIN AREA-WIDE
BY 7-8PM. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR, IN THE LOW TO MID 20S THROUGH
THE RIVER/BAYOU PARISHES AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY DUE TO THESE
TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
PLACES WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, AND ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS - WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
EVERY FREEZE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONGER TERM
FORECAST AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGHING THAT DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE FIRST OF THESE FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE PAST THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY, FORCING A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 50 ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS ONE SHOULD PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF. WHILE THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, MOST AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SPREAD, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE LEAD
TIME AT THIS POINT, SO WILL STICK WITH THE NBM SOLUTION, WHICH
DOES NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP COINCIDING WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, EVEN IF ANY FREEZING RAIN DOES FALL, IT
SHOULD QUICKLY MELT SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AND INTO THE 40S.
ONCE ANY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT, THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO
TEMPERATURES AS THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL ONCE AGAIN BE
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND A FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING
DAYS. HOWEVER, FEEL IT'S PRUDENT TO MENTION THAT EVEN WITH A
NEARLY 20-DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FORECAST LOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
SITES ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. BRRRRR.
THE BOTTOM LINE: WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE TRENDS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND IT'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1KFT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING, IN NOT UNTIL NOON. SHOULD
FINALLY SEE THESE DECKS SCATTER AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXES DOWN MORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT'S WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SET
IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WINDS WILL HOLD
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOESN'T
LET UP JUST YET. SO EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS 15 TO 25 KTS UNTIL PROBABLY
MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KNEW, WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTS IN STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MIDWEEK, BUT
THE REPRIEVE WILL ONLY LAST A FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
KEY MESSAGES...DM
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...DM
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