101
FXUS64 KLIX 232043
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHORT TERM
PRETTY QUIET AND MILD SPRING WEEKEND UNDERWAY WITH 30+ DEGREE
DIURNAL RANGES ON DRY AIR. CURRENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE
WHILE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY
WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG AND STEAM FOG ON THE COOLER STREAMS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY HAVE SOME ADVECTIVE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TOO
CERTAIN ON EXTENT. OTHERWISE, ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
NEAR MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT INTENSITY APPEARS LIMITED AS GREATER
DYNAMICS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND TIMING MAY BE AFTER
OPTIMAL DIURNAL HEATING. GREATER COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUNTS EAST TO
JUST PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRIER SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA LATE NEXT SATURDAY BUT TIMING MAY BE ALTERED IN SUBSEQUENT
RUNS AS CUT-OFF CIRCULATION IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY AFFECT
ACTUAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION. 24/RR
AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING THANKS TO A
EASTWARD PROGRESSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, AND AROUND FAR
SOUTH/EASTERN LOUISIANA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME, THE EXTENT AND JUST HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL
BE IS IN QUESTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A FEW
SITES WITH TEMPO FOG. LIKE THIS MORNING, FOG WILL NOT LAST LONG
THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NO RAIN AND ONLY SOME
THIN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. KLG
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THANKS TO A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH INTO NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. AT THIS TIME, ONLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS BEFORE ALL CONVECTION LIKELY
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRESS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, CLEARING SOUTH OF ALL MARINE ZONES BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE PREVAILING
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH MAY BE GUSTY AND REACH AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SPECIFIC TIMING AT THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN, BUT WIND GUSTS
AVERAGING 15-25 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ONCE
BETTER MIXING OCCURS ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 5 TO 7 FEET, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUTER MARINE ZONES. KLG
DECISION SUPPORT
DSS CODE: BLUE.
DEPLOYED: NONE.
ACTIVATION: NONE.
ACTIVITIES: RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 49 77 56 76 / 0 0 10 40
BTR 51 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 40
ASD 49 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 40
MSY 53 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 30
GPT 50 71 56 74 / 0 0 0 40
PQL 49 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
24/RR
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