897
FXUS64 KLIX 021728 CCA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1228 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- WARM WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS AND MAY BE IN AND
OUT OF CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND MAY RISE TO AROUND 25KT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
UPPER RIDGING WAS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR OMAHA TO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECOND TROUGH
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER KANSAS WITH A FRONT EASTWARD ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 AND A DRYLINE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR LITTLE ROCK TO SHREVEPORT TO
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING, WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY (1.2 INCHES) VS THE 90TH YESTERDAY. AN
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD WAS ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INLAND FROM COASTAL AREAS TO THE WEST
OF INTERSTATE 55. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE AND SOME AREAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE BEST FORCING PULLING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST
SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT ARRIVES IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS EVENING.
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS ON FRIDAY, AS THERE
WON'T BE ANY ORGANIZED FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABLY WILL STILL
BE A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER, THOUGH, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION, AND IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH OR LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. RECENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVELY PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE GFS TAKING UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY TO MOVE IT OFFSHORE, AND NOT VERY FAR OFFSHORE AT THAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES (EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE) ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE CAPE VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
(1000-2000 J/KG), SHEAR IS LIKELY TO ONLY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE SPC HAS INDICATED A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR HAIL/WIND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA.
THE TRANSITION DAY IS LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY, WITH SOME QUESTION
REMAINING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER EXTENSIVE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
LINGER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 70S, BUT MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70 ON MONDAY.
MIDWEEK HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FOR
MONDAY MORNING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE 50S
SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR FOR ALL SITES, AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS,
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES TO SHOW TSRA FOR
MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY
WITH SUNSET ONCE AGAIN BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE BACK OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST TERMINALS. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY BE MORE LIMITED
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF WINDS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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