447
FXUS64 KLIX 290507
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LIMITED
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. STRONG HEATING WILL REMAIN FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO THE EAST STARTING THURSDAY.
- A CONSIDERABLY WETTER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SW STACKED HIGH AND THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH TODAY WILL CAUSE OUR WX FOR THE REMAINING WORK WEEK. TODAY,
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, KEEPING HEAT INDEX NUMBERS
WELL INTO THE 100S. THE FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL FOLD
AROUND THE RIDGE EXTENTION CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL AND ORIENT
ITSELF FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO COASTAL MISS BY THU. THIS WILL
BRING A NW FLOW THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO REDUCE THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES STARTING THU, AT LEAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI AS WELL. THE RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BY LATE SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST
HELPING TO KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF SH/TS
AROUND ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER AND NO CRAZY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES.
IT'S EITHER HEAT OR RAIN, BUT A GOOD MIX OF THE TWO HELPS BREAK
ONE FROM THE OTHER. AND AS USUAL FOR SUMMER STORMS, ANY ONE OF
THESE COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION, WHICH WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS BEGINS TO ABANDON THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS INDICATES GRADUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
IN BACK TO OUR NORTH AND THAT IS, INDEED, THE GFS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER, ECM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STILL SHOWS THE WEAKNESS FULLY
INVOLVED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER
SOLUTION GIVEN THE CONTINUES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LESS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THAT SAID, GFS LOWER POPS AND
WARMER. ECM HIGHER POPS AND COOLER. MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SPLIT BETWEEN
THE TWO GLOBALS FOR NOW. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. GPT WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF TSRA OUT OF ALL TERMINALS LATE TODAY BUT 20%
COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO SHOW IN CURRENT TAF SET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY TO SW FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
WHERE WINDS APPROACH AND SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS DURING
THE EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND REMAIN
NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO
4 FEET OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS, WAVES, LIGHTNING,
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056-071-090>097.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ057-
058-064-070-076>087-089-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>085.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ086>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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