829
FXUS64 KLIX 170503
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE INCREASING HEAT. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY BUT SHOULD SURPASS CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST SOME
AREAS SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
SOONEST THAT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN WILL BE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
SLOOOOOWWWWLY MOVE WEST AS THE SYNOPTIC SW HIGH EASES RIDGING INTO
OUR AREA INTO THE NEXT WEEK. SAT EVENING RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY
AROUND 10% AT THE MOMENT BUT THIS MAY MOVE UP TO AROUND 20-30%
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY, CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ROBUST. BUT THE HEAT WILL BE. ANY CHANCE OF A COOLING STORM WILL
BE BEST EAST OF I55 LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE PROGRESSION OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL NOT MOVE FARTHER THAN I55 THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH MONDAY. AS FAR AS HEAT
ADVISORIES, WE WILL BE AT OR VERY CLOSE TO CRITERIA TODAY, BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL SURPASS SAT INTO THE NEW WEEK. NO ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF NEW GUIDANCE
COMES IN HOT.
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SE CONUS AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM OF THIS FCAST.
A DISTURBED AREA OF SH/TS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND PULSE
OVER THE NE GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TUTT LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FL KEYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVER
AFFECTING THE AREA OF STORMS IN THE NE GULF CAUSING QUITE A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TUTT LOW MOVES
NEAR THE JACKSONVILLE AREA BY SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND A MORE RELAXED
SHEAR PROFILE BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STACKED HIGH TO
OUR WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL PROVIDE A CHANNEL
FOR THIS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH OR NE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OUT AS WE START NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN FLANK OF
AN EXPANDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CONUS TO SLIDE OVERHEAD
AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WORK
WEEK. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 110 DEGREES SOME DAYS AND
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF THIS LEVEL OF HEAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ON WHETHER TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE.
THIS, IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER TROUGH (DEPENDING ON ITS DEPTH) DIVING
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY INTO THE GREAT LAKES, COULD HELP
TO ERODE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND EASE OFF THE WORST OF
THE HEAT THREAT AS WE GET INTO MID-LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO REDUCE
THE CAPPING INVERSION STIFLING AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LAKE AND
SEABREEZE CONVECTION WHICH IS REFLECTED BY NBM GUIDANCE IN POPS
INCREASING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES WEST, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FLUCTUATE
FROM NORTH THROUGH WEST AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ANY THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CAUSE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED TO BECOME ERRATIC AND STRONG. THUNDERSTORM
NUMBERS MAY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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