265
FXUS64 KLIX 171126
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
526 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOCATION CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF I-59, HOWEVER DENSITY REMAINS IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
- THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST/MARINE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- TURNING COOLER FRIDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WITH A QUICK WARM UP EXPECTED
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 70'S
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE WILL START TO SEE RIDGING SLIDE EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS
DISTURBANCE COMES IN THE WAY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BACK OVER TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRAPE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY AS
WINDS TURNED BACK ONSHORE, HELPING BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS MOISTURE INCREASE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY
THE AFTERNOON AND ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID 60S BY THURSDAY. WITH
ALL THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND THE DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE AREA,
POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WEDNESDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PRETTY REFINED TO THE COAST
WITH CHANCES RANGING ABOUT 25-40%. WE SEE OUR HIGHEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ON THURSDAY, MOSTLY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. AREAS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SEE CHANCES AS HIGH AS 70-80%.
WHILE WE LIKELY WON'T SEE MUCH SUPPORT ON LAND FOR ANY DECENT
STORMS, LOOKING MORE OFFSHORE I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO ON THURSDAY.
THE MAIN THREAT OF THE SHORT TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. WITH THAT
MOISTURE INFLUX, SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALREADY PINGING HEAVILY ON FOG
CHANCES EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE NBM PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER, THE HREF AND REFS SURE ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH NUMBERS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOOKING TO BE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. SOME VERY PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WELL, BUT THURSDAY MORNING STICKS OUT MUCH MORE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
EARLY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKE IT THROUGH
THE AREA AND THROUGH TO THE COAST BY MID-DAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A DECENT COOLDOWN, HOWEVER NOT NEARLY AS COLD
AS THIS MOST RECENT FRONT THAT BROUGHT TWO NIGHTS BELOW FREEZING.
THIS TIME WE LIKELY ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FOR LOWS NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE MID 40S SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE
INITIAL COOLDOWN WOULD ALREADY BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT WOULD SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES. WE WOULD ALSO SEE THIS
COOLER AIR IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY, WHERE THURSDAY WE SAT
IN THE 70S, FRIDAY LIKELY ONLY REACHES THE LOW 60S AT BEST. THIS
WILL NOT BE A LONG COOLDOWN BY ANY MEANS, WITH THE 70S RETURNING
BY SATURDAY AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY OTHER NOTABLE SYSTEMS IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VIS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL SITES. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER FROM VFR AND MVFR LEVELS TO IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
FURTHER LOWER TO LIFR BY LATE TONIGHT. VIS WILL ALSO BE IN IFR AND
LIFR RANGES AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FALLS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH SOME FG AT SEVERAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY HAS BEEN PROMOTING MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 8-
10KTS. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE GOING INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20KTS TO 20-25KTS FOR 20-60NM OFFSHORE GULF
ZONES AND OUT OF THE NORTH, LIKELY NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING CALM
WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 54 72 41 / 20 30 70 30
BTR 68 57 76 44 / 10 20 50 20
ASD 64 55 72 43 / 30 60 70 20
MSY 66 59 75 50 / 30 50 60 10
GPT 64 57 69 45 / 30 60 80 30
PQL 65 55 70 45 / 20 60 80 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...HL
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