633
FXUS64 KLIX 110513
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS BUT OVERALL THE
THREAT OF DENSE FOG APPEARS LOW.
- A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE, AND THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS THIS THREAT EVOLVES.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER
SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING, WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND HAD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CHICAGO, TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS, THEN SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. LOCALLY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH MID-
EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EVENING LIX UPPER AIR SOUNDING CARRIED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.42 INCHES, WHICH WAS NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. THERE WAS A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 800 MB.
THE WEST TEXAS UPPER TROUGH WILL SPEND MOST OF WEDNESDAY TRAVERSING
THE LONE STAR STATE, MOVING INTO LOUISIANA AROUND SUNSET, AND
EXITING THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE 18Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A
BIT ON THE QUICK SIDE AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS, BUT ONLY BY A FEW HOURS.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT DRIER
THAN THE CURRENT SOUNDING SHOWS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
1.2 INCHES. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE, BUT THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE TO THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND SUNSET. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. BY SUNSET,
THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH LOW LEVEL
SRH VALUES AROUND 100, THERE'S GOING TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST, SO CONVECTION MAY ALREADY BE IN A WEAKENING
MODE AS IT ARRIVES, BUT PROBABLY NOT QUICK ENOUGH TO LOWER OUR GUARD
AT THIS POINT. WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES,
LOCALLY HIGHER, CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MOVING
INTO ALABAMA BY ABOUT 3 AM CDT, IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINTS THAT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S
JUST 24 HOUR HOURS LATER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S WEDNESDAY
COULD BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE NBM
NUMBERS AREN'T LIKELY TO CATCH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DRYING, AND
NBM25 MIGHT BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY,
FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE MAY
ALSO NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT WILL DEFER THAT CALL TO THE DAY
SHIFT FOR NOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL PRETTY QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST QUICKLY TO BE CENTERED FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST TO THE TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
ALREADY HAVE TURNED BACK TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY,
WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING, AS WELL AS WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LOOKS TO BE
RATHER MEAGER WITH THAT FRONT THOUGH, SO WE MIGHT END UP WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AGAIN
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE AREA
BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER CHILLY AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10/12 CORRIDOR COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 40 FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WE
HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY AND HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CLOSE ON THOSE, ALTHOUGH THE NBM LOOKS A BIT CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW, ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL JUST RIDE WITH
THE NBM NUMBERS AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR DUMPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHUNTS MOST OF THE
COOLER AIR OFF TO THE EAST, ONLY TAKING US BACK TO AROUND NORMAL,
WHILE THE GFS DROPS LOWS INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS AT ISSUANCE TIME FROM IFR (AT KGPT) TO
VFR. MOST OR ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR FL010 OR LOWER WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST AT
VFR AROUND MIDDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA AT WESTERN TERMINALS
PRIOR TO 00Z THURSDAY, BUT MAIN THRUST OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE 00Z THURSDAY TO 06Z WINDOW. WILL CARRY
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CONVECTION AND LINGER PRECIPITATION
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT MENTION STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE CONVECTION FOR NOW, BUT MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER
UPDATES. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT AT MOST TERMINALS, THAT WILL BE BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST DRIVE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 10 KT TO AROUND 15 KT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, LIKELY PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW WATERSPOUTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE GALE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-
532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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