756
FXUS64 KLIX 040521
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WARM WITH HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY STARTING AROUND NOON INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS TODAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS NEXT WEEK COULD INCREASE THE
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT ON EAST FACING SHORELINES BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RANGES WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS AND COULD
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO 6+" IN A SHORT DISTANCE. ONE OF THESE
LOCATIONS LOOKS TO BE, WITHIN AN AREA OR AROUND AND AREA, BETWEEN
BTR AND HAMMOND NORTHWARD TO THE STATE LINE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LOCATED FOR TODAY. THIS
LOOKS WARRANTED AND WILL NOT DOWNPLAY THIS RISK LEVEL. THE NEXT
THING WOULD BE SEVERE WX POSSIBILITIES. THE NUMBERS ARE NOT HIGH
FOR GETTING SEVERE STORMS BUT THEY DO FALL WITHIN CRITERIA, SO
AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM TO EXIST
MAINLY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLAY AT THE MOMENT AND THIS LOOKS
WARRANTED AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM. THE GLOBALS
ARE IN A BIT BETTER ALIGNMENT, AT LEAST WITH THE 12Z ECM AND 18Z GFS
SHOWING ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QPF
SIGNAL. THIS IS A SLIGHT NUDGE TO AGREEMENT WITH A BIT DRIER
SOLUTION FOR MONDAY VS THE PREVIOUS RUNS ON THE GFS/GEFS.
PUTTING MORE FAITH IN THE DRIER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY DOES ALSO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS AS BEFORE THE GFS TRENDED A BIT COOLER
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. WITH THIS NEARING AGREEMENT WE CAN ALSO
ASSUME A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE H5 FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER
FLOW, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
GULF ALLOWING FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. THAT SAID, A DEVELOPING WAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY WILL HELP THE SURFACE FEATURE LIFT
NORTHWARD AGAIN TOWARD OUR REGION AS A WARM FRONT, WHICH MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD
COMES TO AN END LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE TO BE
RATHER LIMITED. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
CIGS WILL BE IN ALL DAY FOR MOST AREAS BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH EVENING. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR BY LATE EVENING AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. VIS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNLESS
TSRA MOVES OVER. THERE WILL BE TIMES AT EACH TERMINAL THAT SH/TS
MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT CAUSING TEMPO CIGS/VIS TO FALL INTO
IFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY AND SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MOST WATERS, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
COULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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