188
FXUS64 KLIX 291035
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
535 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- RIVER FLOODING IN PEARL RIVER CO AND MS COASTAL BASINS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS WATER RUNS OFF FROM YESTERDAY'S HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH RAIN CHANCES A BIT LOWER, TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES WITH
HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 100.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY AND TOMORROW, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO BOTH WARM AND DRY THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE END RESULT WILL BE A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TAKING HOLD THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, ENOUGH INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500 TO
2000 J/KG) AND MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES) WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON, AND CHANCE POP OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT IS
IN PLACE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. THESE POP VALUES ARE ESSENTIALLY AT
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO FIRE UP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEABREEZE OR
ANY PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EACH
DAY, AND THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY. THESE VALUES ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME
YEAR, BUT THEY STILL WARRANT A MODERATE HEATRISK FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
A FEW AREAS JUMP INTO MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY, SO THE RISK OF HEAT
ILLNESSES COULD EXPAND BEYOND OUR MORE HEAT VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS INTO THE BROADER POPULATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT EVEN IF
THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN, IT DOESN'T MEAN A DRY FORECAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE (1.6
TO 1.7 INCHES), AND OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE,
THERE'S PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WE'LL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED HOURS EACH
DAY. IN OTHER WORDS, AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT, IT
PROBABLY WON'T BE UNTIL PERHAPS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
IF GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ANY INDICATION. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS MOST AREAS SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS THAT GET STUCK UNDER A SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM COULD GET CONSIDERABLY MORE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF CONVECTION ON A GIVEN DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO GET PRETTY CLOSE TO 90 EACH DAY, BUT IF
STORMS DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY, THAT COULD CAP THINGS OFF IN THE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MOST AREAS, WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, WHICH COULD SNEAK
INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED AT MCB THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE RAPIDLY CLEARING BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z. SOME MVFR
STRATUS IS ALSO IMPACTING HDC AND BTR WITH CEILINGS OF 2000 TO
2500 FEET. THESE CEILINGS WILL ALSO MIX OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS TO A MORE SCATTERED CLOUD DECK. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT GPT FROM 15Z TO 18Z
AND MCB FROM 18Z TO 24 WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WILL REDEVELOP AT MCB AROUND 10Z
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN DECOUPLES BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS CALM AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY POP UP EACH
DAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY, AND A MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING OVER THE WATERS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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