922
FXUS64 KLIX 151817
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
117 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- DRIER AIR FROM A BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS, UNSETTLED MARINE WATERS, AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
- MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HEAT INDICES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 100S IN MANY PLACES TODAY WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL MIRED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HOWEVER, REPRIEVE IS ON THE WAY! A BACK DOOR FRONT IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP, POSITIONED ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER AND EASTWARD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PUSH FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AND
THEN DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 15-25% LOWER. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT A MUCH
MORE MANAGEABLE LEVEL, CLOSER TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THE DEEP-LAYER
DRY AIR WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE PRIMARY FEATURE AND SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS WEEKEND
AND BEYOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-UPPER TROUGH NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
CURRENTLY THAT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON HOW FAST THIS MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE
AND REACH THE GULF. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE MORE BULLISH ON A DEEPER TROUGH AND FASTER
PROPAGATION TOWARD OUR AREA BY SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE
REMAINS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOWER WITH PROPAGATION TOWARD
OUR AREA. A SOLUTION LIKE THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACKING DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND HIGHER POPS IN THE LONG RANGE
WHILE A ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR CONTINUATION OF HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS, MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND, DEPENDING ON THE RIDGE STRENGTH,
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TICK BACK UP AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS. A PROB30 REMAINS FOR HUM WHERE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF TSRA IMPACTS EXISTS THOUGH AN ISOLATED, BRIEF SH/TS
IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED FOR MOST COASTAL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SH/TS IMPACTS AND A BACKDOOR FRONT.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP BENIGN
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL POP UP IN THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING AND WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TIGHTENING WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A
BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THESE HIGHER WINDS AND
INCREASE TO 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THESE UNSETTLED
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. EASTERLY FETCH WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RISES TO TIDAL RANGES,
BUT ARE EXPECTED STAY BELOW COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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