966
FXUS64 KLIX 091817
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
117 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO STREET FLOODING AND
OVERFLOWING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG COASTAL
LOUISIANA TODAY. THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL POP UP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIER SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AIR FROM A DISSIPATING BACKDOOR FRONT IS
MIXING INTO NORTHERN AREAS. TODAY'S POPS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST FOR
THE WEEK AS A RESULT.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY BRINGING
WITH IT A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWAT >90TH PERCENTILE).
ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MARINE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE MORE INCLINED TO MOVE INLAND AFTER
SUNRISE. LAND AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE INTO LATE MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH WESTWARD, FARTHER
INLAND. WITH HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BAND
STRUCTURES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING OF STREETS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE ELEVATED HEAVY RAINFALL PARAMETERS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SLOWS AND TURNS NORTH,
ROUNDING THE SURFACE HIGH. MID-UPPER AIR ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO IMPROVE WITH LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE
LINGERING HIGHER PWATS (>90TH PERCENTILE), THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES (2-3" PER
HOUR) ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE
ADDITIONAL MID-UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO GROW TALLER AND STRONGER, SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS VIA DOWNBURSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 90S (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL) WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
ELEVATED INTO THE LOW 100S WHEN THE SUN IS OUT ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
MIDDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, ELEVATED HEAT RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY
STORM COVERAGE SO HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND LIFT OUT. THEREAFTER, POPS WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT
HIGH PRESSURE EXPAND AND DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICES WILL CREEP CLOSER
TO 105-110 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. HOWEVER, DAILY
AFTERNOON RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WHICH
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGHER HEAT RISK.
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS ELONGATED SOUTHERN CONUS
RIDGE STAYING OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE WEEK 2
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS PATTERN COULD TRANSITION
TOWARD AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST DECAYING FRONTAL PASSAGES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS AND WINDS REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ASIDE FROM SOME VCSH NEAR HUM,
SH/TS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY. COVERAGE
OF SH/TS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS BY 1200
UTC ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. PROB30 WORDING IS IN PLACE FOR GPT, ASD, NEW,
AND MSY TO REFLECT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS ANY
STORMS PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL PROB30S AND TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR HDC, BTR, HUM, AND MCB TO REFLECT ONSET OF POTENTIAL
TSRA IMPACTS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE GULF. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND CREATE CHOPPY SEAS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS AND WATERSPOUTS. AS THE WAVE SLIDES TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND FALL BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS THE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXPANDS TO THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 1
TO 2 FEET AS THE WINDS DECREASE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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