673
FXUS64 KLIX 300619
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK, STRONGER/COLDER THAN LAST
WEEKEND, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
VERY COLD, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DANGEROUSLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. A COLD WEATHER
- GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON THE ENTIRE WEEKEND,
STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE THE PLEASANT DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TODAY WILL BEGIN AS NICE BUT WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS. SFC LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE
ARKLATEX WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER
THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRAPED BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN TX AND APPROACHING THE TX COAST. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE ASSOCIATED S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IT WILL BE A DRY
FRONT. AS FOR THE COLD AIR IT IS STILL LAGGING BACK BUT IT WILL
RUDELY MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE REAL
STRONG WINDS WILL HOLD OFF TILL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS STRONG CAA
TAKES PLACES.
WITH RESPECT TO THE CAA, H925 TEMPS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 7-8C
WILL PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW
DROPPING AS LOW AS -8 TO -12 BY 15Z. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AT H925 AND H85 ALONG WITH 6HR SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 6MB WILL LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND LIKELY ALL DAY. COMBINE
THAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SFC TO H925(H925 WINDS AROUND
30-35KT) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN TO H85(H85 35-40KT) BY MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AS
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN THOSE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
MS COAST AND SOUTHSHORE OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. WITH
THAT A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 6Z TONIGHT TO 6Z SUNDAY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO STENNIS TO
PASCAGOULA.
AS FOR THE COLD AIR. WE ALREADY MENTIONED HOW STRONG THE CAA IS AND
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINING WITH THAT AND MORNING WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THAT ACTUAL LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
20 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS TO UPPER 20S SOUTH OF I-10 IN SELA. THE OTHER
PROBLEM WITH CAA CONTINUING THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING
HOURS AND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALL DAY THERE WILL BE VERY
LITTLE WARMING ABLE TO OCCUR SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT SOUTHWEST MS AND THE ADJACENT LA PARISHES BUT
BY ABOVE FREEZING WE ARE TALKING MAYBE INTO THE UPPER 30S. SO EVEN
WITH HIGHS IN THE 33-38 RANGE, COMBINE THAT WITH THE WIND AND THE
WIND CHILLS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS
EVERYWHERE, EVEN THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHSHORE AND ACROSS COASTAL MS.
THIS JUST SETS THE STAGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BE EVERY BIT
AS COLD IS NOT MAYBE A TOUCH COLDER THAN THIS PAST TUESDAY. MORNING
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND
LOWER TO MID 20S ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. NBM IS STILL ON THE HIGH
END OF GUIDANCE AND IS EVEN ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND WE DO WANT TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
COLDER, SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. HOWEVER, THE FEELING IS THAT MUCH
OF THE GUIDANCE IS ASSUMING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
BUT GIVEN THAT THE SFC HIGH STILL DOESN'T GET RIGHT ON TOP OF THE
AREA, THE WINDS DON'T RELAX ENOUGH AND PROBABLY NEVER DECOUPLES AND
THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP MORNING LOWS CLOSER TO
THE NBM VALUES. IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO SHUT DOWN FASTER BOTH AT THE
SFC AND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN GIVEN THE LACK OF WARMING
DURING THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OUR
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS COULD BE TOO WARM AND POSSIBLY BY AS MUCH AS 2-
4 DEGREES.
EXTREME COLD WARNING IS ALREADY ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE IS NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT.
HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD IN SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME WAA IN THE
LL LEADING TO A WARMER DAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT. L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS MULTIPLE S/W DROP
DOWN THE BACK SIDE REINFORCING THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT. IN ADDITION
A REX BLOCK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE L/W IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
RATHER CHILLY AIR.
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK S/W RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS TX AND
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BUT WILL SLIDE EAST ALLOWING WEAK RETURN FLOW
TO START LATE MONDAY HELPING TO MODERATE THE AREA BRINGING BRINGING
TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. PRIOR TO THAT THOUGH, MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE ANOTHER COLD MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE AREA THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRACTICALLY OPTIMAL AND THAT
WILL LEAD TO ONE LAST FRIGID NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH.
AND THAT NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE S/W RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT S/W DIVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL RE-
AMPLIFY THE L/W TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A SFC LOW EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SFC LOW WILL SWING A COLD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND IT ALONG
WITH THE S/W APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING US OUT NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN. WITH NOT A LOT OF TIME TO RECOVER MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
JUST BE SHOWERS BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
JUST YET. COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AND WE WILL
SEE FREEZING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT
A COLD FRONT IS GOING TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT BUT BY
AFTERNOON THESE WILL INCREASE AND BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LAKE
AND ALONG COASTAL MS WITH NEW LIKELY SEEING WIND GUSTS OF
30-35KTS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FIRST BUT AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO FINALLY MOVE IN MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2-3K WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF
THE MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS NO OTHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BEFORE MIDDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SCY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND MUCH
OF THE TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
QUICKLY MOVES IN THIS EVENING LEADING TO GALES DEVELOPING OVER ALL
OF THE WATERS. GALES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST MONDAY ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR LAZ058>060-064>070-076>078-087>090.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ530-550-552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ550-552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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