527  
FXUS64 KLIX 192023  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA AND IS  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL, THIS WILL LEAD TO  
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE  
ENHANCING THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND LIFTING IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  
ALSO, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE UPLIFT IN THE  
ATMOSPHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFTING IN THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING UP TO THIS  
EVENT. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN  
THE ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE AMOUNT  
OF BUOYANCY IN THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BE AVERAGE TO HIGH DUE  
TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CAPE BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE  
AVAILABILITY. THE DYNAMIC FORCING CREATED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM  
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE  
FRONTAL FORCING REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN  
THE DIURNAL CONSIDERATIONS, COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOR MORE  
EFFICIENT INITIATION. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONGER DOWNBURST  
WINDS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL CONDITIONS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS  
SHOWS THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL FOR A DAY  
OR TWO NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COASTLINES. IF THIS  
OCCURS, THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER AND FLASH  
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY  
WOULD BE MORE APPARENT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  
 
AFTER THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THE NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS  
THE FRONTAL INFLUENCES DIMINISH OVER TIME. MSW  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LINGERING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET OVER THE  
REGION WITH VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY  
REPEAT OF CONVECTIVE ONSET PREDOMINANTLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES  
MAINLY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. RR/24  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
CONTINUATION OF STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR  
THE COAST BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM POTENTIALLY  
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SHORE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
RR/24  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH  
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE  
OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF  
NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 74 90 73 89 / 30 40 30 70  
BTR 75 90 74 89 / 30 40 30 80  
ASD 75 90 74 89 / 30 40 30 70  
MSY 77 89 77 89 / 30 60 30 70  
GPT 76 88 76 88 / 30 40 30 50  
PQL 75 89 74 91 / 30 60 30 50  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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