591
FXUS64 KLIX 110657
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A VERY CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH HOT DAYS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
OUR SATURDAY WILL START VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OFFSHORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AND EVENTUALLY,
SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION OVER LAND. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
GOING TO BE HOT TODAY AND "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONE ELEMENT THAT REDUCED THE NEED
YESTERDAY FOR A HEAT ADVISORY WAS TIMING OF CONVECTION, WHICH WAS
A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE SAME LIKELY CAN BE SAID FOR TODAY,
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE DECIDED AGAINST THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
AROUND THE LAKES. THAT SAID, CONVECTION WILL HELP WITH
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO BRING WITH IT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWATS LIKELY APPROACHING 2.0" (MEANING EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES)
AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY THAT PATTERN EVOLVES TO BE MORE ACTIVE WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS A SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER THE REGION. AN H5 WEAKNESS SLIDES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO HELP LOWER TEMPS
A BIT ALOFT. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF AND START TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE
LEADING TO INCREASING POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY. AGAIN WITH THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2.0" AND EXPECTED SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE THERE.
OVERALL, THE QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 2
INCHES ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS
MAY LOCALLY SEE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5, WHICH AGAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME FLOOD PRONE AREAS EXPERIENCING SOME ISSUES SOMEWHERE WITHIN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS WITH THE INCREASE IN POPS AND
CLOUDINESS, EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO ONLY MANAGE TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL MEAN THE FIRST BELOW
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE GLOBALS
STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE, WITH THE GFS BASED
SCENARIOS PARKING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH, AND THE ECMWF
BASED SCENARIOS OVER THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER, AT LEAST FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE PATTERNS AREN'T ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA, AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES, WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
WE'LL ACTUALLY START DRYING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT, AND PROBABLY WON'T
SEE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MUCH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. NBM POP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN SOLUTIONS MIGHT HAVE A BIT
OF AN EFFECT WOULD BE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THE RIDGE NEAR OR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA, THE GFS SOLUTIONS WOULD LEND TO HOTTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES, IN THE MID 90S, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE CURRENT NBM TEMPERATURE TRENDS LEND THEMSELVES
TO ACCEPTING THE GFS SOLUTIONS. (RW)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE. HOWEVER, LIKE THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WHERE VIS/CIGS COULD BE REDUCED TO
MVFR OR LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MOSTLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY, WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE IN AND AROUND
CONVECTION AND WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES BEING OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE OPEN
GULF. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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