114
FXUS64 KLIX 160530
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE IMPACTS.
- FIRST IMPACT IS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LA SATURDAY.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
MARINE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND NOON TODAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
PRODUCED BY THIS FRONT WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SOME
VERY DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS. IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE FIRST REAL
HINT OF FALL. THE ISSUE WILL BE WITH FIRE WEATHER AND MARINE
CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER(RED FLAG) WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA HINGE
ON 3 VARIABLES WHILE A GALE WATCH/WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE
ONLY 1. THIS MEANS THAT THESE DIFFERENT HEADLINES CAN BE SEPERATED
IN TIME BY QUITE A BIT LIKE THEY WILL BE IN THIS RELEASE SINCE IT
WILL TAKE A BIT FOR THE PROPER RH VALUES TO BE REALIZED. WE WILL
BE BRINGING THE GALE WARNING UP WITH THIS PACKAGE AND KEEPING THE
FIRE WATCH BUT INCLUDE THE MISS COAST. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO
BE RELEASED WITH THIS PACKAGE AS WE SHOULD SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH BEHIND THIS FRONT.
CURRENTLY, THE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER TX IS BEGINNING TO
BRIDGE IT(MOVE OVER IT). THIS IS CAUSING THE LARGE AREA OF SH/TS
TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. ALL THAT WILL BE LEFT WILL BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS BUT MAINLY A CLOUD LINE WITH THE FRONT. FOG
WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD
DEVELOP IS MUCH MORE FAVORED AT 5KFT RATHER THAN AT THE SFC. BUT
IF CLOUD COVER CAN'T FORM ABOVE THE SFC, THE SECOND PREFERENCE IS
THE SFC IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE LOST. THIS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL STILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15
2026
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS WILL HELP
WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S...CLOSE TO 90S IN THE MORE EXTREME CASES. AT THE SURFACE,
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE
ZONES AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THIS COULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL FROM
A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE THE LOWER MORE CRITICAL RH VALUES WILL
RESIDE. SO, ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO NEED ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES, FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST PARAMETERS ARE A BIT
SEPARATED. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT FOR THIS TAF PACK. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SITES LOWER TO MVFR AND/OR IFR DUE TO CIGS
AND POSSIBLY VIS BY SUNRISE, BUT SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW CLOUD
PRODUCTION IS A BETTER FIT AT 5KFT THAN AT THE SFC. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO
NEAR 30KT. NO RA OR TS IMPACTS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY GALES AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY EASE A BIT OVER
SOME OF THE PROTECTED WATERS SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW GALE
HEADLINES TO BE REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE TO AROUND
20KT LATE SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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