550
FXUS64 KLIX 151853
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
153 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- ANOTHER LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- HIGH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BOOKEND THE GALE CONDITIONS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ON MONDAY. AND, IF THAT'S NOT
ENOUGHT THE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON HAVE LED TO ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECASTING FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES STATES WILL DRIVE A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EQUALLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OF AT LEAST
1030MB WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, AN ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A COLDER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE THE ONE LAST SHOT OF COLD AIR
BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARRIVES OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
UP WITH EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPS AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AND USHERS IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
AND TEMPERATURES WILL END UP IN THE LOW TO EVEN MIDDLE 80S. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AS CONDITIONS TURN FAIRLY UNSTABLE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD REACH AS HIGH AS
7.5C/KM JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
AMPLE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LIFT ALOFT IN PLACE, THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO SPEAK OF IN THE
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, A FAIRLY STOUT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLATEX AND THEN PUSH TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FAST MOVING LINE WILL
ENCOUNTER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES IN
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES
OF AROUND 150M2/S2. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITING, THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, ALL OF THE CONVECTIVELY AIDED HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS.
HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LLJ OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER ALABAMA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD INITIALLY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND GULFPORT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL TAKE HOLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR RISING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AND THESE FAVORABLE SHEAR PARAMETERS, A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD FORM
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING A TORNADO OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS TO SEE IF
THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE. THE
GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING,
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN ABOUT SIX HOURS
MONDAY WILL BE A DAY OF RAPID CLEARING AS VERY STRONG NEGATIVE
VORTICTY, DRY AIR, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OFF IN THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 50S. THESE READINGS ARE A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE STRONG
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES TO OCCUR AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 1PM TO 7PM MONDAY COVERING MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED IN ON
THE BACK OF A STRONG 925MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MONDAY NIGHT, AND A
LIGHT FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS A
REINFORCING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS IN THE DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO THE HEART OF THE THERMAL TROUGH FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. A LIGHT FREEZE MAY ONCE AGAIN
OCCUR IN THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGES THOUGH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SUBSEQUENT TO THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALL THE ATTENDANT
IMPACTS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE WE SHOULD BE SEEING THE WEATHER
PATTERN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER
STARTING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE WINTER. BUT, THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING PATTERN WHICH
WILL USHER IN A VERY WARM FIRST DAY OF SPRING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
FUTURE, BUT RIGHT NOW WE AREN'T SEEING IT ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH MOST EXPERIENCING 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 DURING THE LAST MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT HASN'T CHANGED A GREAT DEAL. USED
A 2-3 HOUR TEMPO WINDOW FOR THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
LINE/FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH FRONTAL SPEED EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30
TO 40 KNOT RANGE, IT WILL PASS THROUGH ALL OF OUR TERMINALS IN
THE SPACE OF ABOUT 6 HOURS BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BEHIND THE FRONT, MAY
BE A FEW HOURS OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
MOST OR ALL DAY MONDAY, WITH SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LIKELY
AT MOST TERMINALS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
10+ KNOTS. THEN WITH THE APPROACH, ARRIVAL, AND PASSAGE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30-35KT GUSTING HIGHER AND BECOME NORTHERLY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE. ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS
ARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BOOKENDING A GALE WARNING. ALONG WITH
THE HIGH WINDS ARE SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12FT. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CALMING
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING MORE BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076-079>086.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ056>060-
064>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>090.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG/DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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