989
FXUS64 KLIX 272319
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA
PARISHES.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED NEAR MEXICO CITY AND
EXPANDED ACROSS THE GULF TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTANT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW. NOT A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE,
LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR NOW,
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE CWA IS KEEPING
CONVECTION AT BAY. THAT'S NOT TO SAY RAIN WON'T BE CLOSE. MEDIUM
RANGE AND MESO MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LA, THEN MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI. THE
LINE OF RAIN/NO RAIN LOOKS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SIMILAR SETUP ON TUESDAY BUT WITH ACTIVITY EVEN
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO AND EXPANDED NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS NORTHERN EXTENT MID
WEEK. SHOULD REALLY BE SEEING EROSION OF THAT NORTHERN RIDGE
PERIPHERY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH BROADENS AND
AMPLIFIES. STILL NOT ENOUGH RIDGE SUPPRESSION TO BRING DOWN TEMPS
MUCH BUT COULD BRING IN SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FLOW PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SITUATION.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OR RAIN BROUGHT IN FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS BEST CHANCE TO KEEP HIGHS FROM
NEARING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS, WHICH IS NEAR 90 FOR THE MOST PART.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA AND DIGS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO SOUTHEAST LA
AND SOUTHERN MS EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND SHOULD
JUST BE LOOKING AT SHOWERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US, REACHING THE 4
CORNERS REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SETUP WILL FIRST LEAD TO A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK OVER THE CWA FRIDAY. THAT, COMBINED
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL YIELD EVEN COOLER HIGHS.
WILL BE THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK THAT HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF POST FRONTAL PW UNDER
1" IS SUFFICIENTLY RE-SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES COME UP CONSIDERABLY AND UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS MUCH MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN AT MOST TERMINALS
AFTER ABOUT 08Z, WITH A SMALL CHANCE THEY COULD FALL INTO IFR
RANGE. CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT WITH SURFACE HEATING DURING THE
MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING VFR PRIOR TO 17Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW ANY HAZARDOUS LIMITS AT 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST AND COULD EVEN SINK INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP THEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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