541
FXUS64 KLIX 131915
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES, SO USE CAUTION DURING PROLONGED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
- FLASH FLOODING RISK INCREASES MONDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4, FOR FLASH
FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SIT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TODAY JUST LIKE IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGING IS
KEEPING A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HERE LOCALLY. THIS IS HELPING
TO PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PW REACHING OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE PW BEING OVER
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY, COUPLED WITH EXPECTED LAKE AND
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES, POPS SERE SLIGHTLY UPPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHSHORE AND COASTAL MS. BOTH THE HREF AND REFS AGREED WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON STARTING AROUND 2PM AND LASTING
UNTIL SUNSET, SO THAT GAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THE
POPS. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, HEAT WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS PROMOTES TEMPS TO BE
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. COUPLE THAT WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINING IN MID 70S
DEWPOINTS, AND WE GET HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS TECHNICALLY NOT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS IS OUR FIRST
HOT SPELL OF THE SUMMER AND THE AREA HAS NOT BE ACCLIMATED YET.
THEREFORE, IF ANYONE IS WORKING OR WILL BE OUTSIDE FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TIME TODAY, PLEASE TAKE BREAKS AND HYDRATE IN THE HEAT.
SUNDAY WILL LARGELY BE A CARBON COPY OF SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED RICH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND YET
ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG LAKE AND
SEABREEZES. THE HEAT RISK WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE.
TROUGHING COMING DOWN FROM THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
ON MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE MAIN IMPULSE OF ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FRONT REALLY SLOWING
DOWN LATE MONDAY AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WAVE
CURRENTLY BEING OUTLOOKED IN THE SW GULF IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO PW VALUES NEARING THE DAILY MAX OF
2.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER FORCING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. TOTALS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEEM
TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA
SINCE THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THEREFORE, WE ARE IN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SEEM TO MAKE A VERY BRIEF APPEARANCE ON
WEDNESDAY, KNOCKING DOWN THE POPS BY 20-30%. THERE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
FORCING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE
WE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 4). HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WHERE, THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY COULD STILL BE IMPACTFUL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY COULD GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE
UPPER-LOW MOVING ACROSS SW LA, MAKING US BE IN THE FAVORABLE AREA
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE MINI TROPICAL-LIKE
FUNNELS AND TORNADOES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH OUT FOR
IS IF THE IMPULSE CAN STAY FURTHER WEST OF THE AREA, MEANING MORE
OF C LA WILL SEE THESE IMPACTS. WITH IT BEING 6 DAYS OUT, IT'S
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR NOW AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT THERE AT
LEAST SEEMS TO BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
ONLY IMPACT THAT WILL BE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS SCATTERED
CONVECTION AT MSY AND NEW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS
GROW ALONG A LAKEBREEZE BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS, WHILE THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO
2 FEET. BY TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
NEAR THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY STALL, BRINGING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS MAY
ALSO TREND A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD BY MID- WEEK, WITH WITH APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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