407
FXUS64 KLIX 220721
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AND LIKELY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. THE RAPID SPREAD
OF WILD FIRES IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE WEAK
WIND, HOWEVER THE CURRENT AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
ABUNDANT FUELS DO NOT ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED (SPSLIX) TO COVER THIS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER AND ONCE AGAIN THAT IS HANDLED
IN THE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. OUTSIDE OF THAT IT
IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH ALSO HAS ITS IMPACTS ON THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST FEW DAYS RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION. THE MID LVL RIDGE IS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING NORTH FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE MAY BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY RAIN
POTENTIAL. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL AND REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO OUR NNE. BY THIS WEEKEND THE
CENTER OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL DROP DOWN TOWARDS THE DELMARVA
REGION WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS COULD BECOME A LITTLE OF A PROBLEM FROM A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN AS IT WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS WE
WILL SEE WINDS START TO PICK BACK UP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT EVEN INLAND WHERE EFFICIENT MIXING
COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GUST TO 15-20 MPH AND THAT WOULD NOT BE A
GREAT THING FOR OUR WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE OTHER
ISSUE IS IT COULD SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH
LL TEMPS DROPPING A TOUCH BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THAT IT WOULD
SEND US RECYCLED CONTINENTAL DRY AIR DROPPING THE DEWPOINTS EVEN
FURTHER THIS WEEKEND.
NBM CONTINUES TO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
GIVEN HOW BAD IT WAS EARLIER THIS WEEK DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO USE A
BLEND OF THE MOS VALUES AND THE NBM TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER GRASP
ON THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. IN ADDITION USED A BLEND OF THE NBM AND
NBM25 FOR DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THEN
WITH THAT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY USED STRAIGHT NBM25
FOR DEWPOINTS SATURDAY. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY SUPPRESS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE, WITH THE RIDGE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED OR ERODED BY TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
INITIALLY CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE
TIDAL LAKES, WITH THE STRONGER GRADIENT PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NOT WIND ADVISORY NUMBERS BUT IT'LL BE BREEZY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW LIMITS AFTERNOON
WARMING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AND MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH A MODEST
WARMING TREND POSSIBLE TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BRING A MEANINGFUL
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. DEEP MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS LIMITED, AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY, THE PROLONGED DRY PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
REMAINING PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, WHILE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING THE
EXTENT AND TIMING OF RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE BY TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A DRY FRONT
WILL BE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /MEFFER/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION FROM SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE NNE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS AN EASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BACK UP THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEADLINES LIKELY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS. /CAB/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC KEEPING
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OUT OF THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND THE ADJACENT FLORIDA PARISHES
OF SOUTHEAST LA. LUCKILY 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 10 MPH
THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND-DRIVEN SPREAD. THAT SAID, THE
FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT WE CAN STILL HAVE PROBLEMS WITHOUT STRONG
WINDS.
THE FUEL INDICATORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CONCERN. THE OCTOBER 21
ERC-BASED FIRE DANGER MAP NOW DEPICTS "HIGH" FIRE DANGER CLASS
ACROSS ALL AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND NORTH OF I-10. RECENT KBDI
VALUES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 600-700 RANGE ACROSS MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS, WITH SOME HIGHER READINGS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 750.
THESE INDICATORS DESCRIBE DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FUEL AND MOISTURE
PICTURE, BUT BOTH POINT TO CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT CONTINUED
ATTENTION. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES TO DEPICT D0 TO D2
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PARISHES.
HOWEVER, THE DROUGHT MONITOR WILL RECEIVE AN UPDATE LATER TODAY AND
THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THESE DROUGHT VALUES CLIMBING
AND EXPANDING WITH THE UPDATE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL PROVIDE
SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN FINE FUEL MOISTURE, BUT WILL DO LITTLE
TO REVERSE THE ACCUMULATED DRYNESS WITHOUT RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER RISK POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS WE
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS COASTAL AREA AND THE IMMEDIATE NORTHSHORE. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST WINDS CLOSER TO THE LA COAST ARE ALSO FORECAST TO COINCIDE
WITH HIGHER RH. THIS MAKES THE OVERLAP OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LOWEST AFTERNOON RH THE MAIN QUESTION. ANY GREATER MIXING OR LESS
MOISTURE RECOVERY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD INCREASE THE CONCERN
BOTH FROM A STANDPOINT OF LOW RH VALUES AND STRONGER WINDS MIXING
DOWN. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THE WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
NUMEROUS LOCAL BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS LA AND MS. THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTS THE NEAR-TERM CONCERN, AND OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED. EVEN WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, AN ESCAPED
FIRE CAN STILL SPREAD THROUGH THE DRY VEGETATION. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
FIRE WEATHER...CAB
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