101  
FXUS64 KLIX 232043  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
343 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
PRETTY QUIET AND MILD SPRING WEEKEND UNDERWAY WITH 30+ DEGREE  
DIURNAL RANGES ON DRY AIR. CURRENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE  
WHILE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY  
WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOULD SEE  
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG AND STEAM FOG ON THE COOLER STREAMS TONIGHT  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY HAVE SOME ADVECTIVE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS OR  
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TOO  
CERTAIN ON EXTENT. OTHERWISE, ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST  
NEAR MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH BROKEN  
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT INTENSITY APPEARS LIMITED AS GREATER  
DYNAMICS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND TIMING MAY BE AFTER  
OPTIMAL DIURNAL HEATING. GREATER COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUNTS EAST TO  
JUST PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRIER SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE  
DIURNAL RANGES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE  
AREA LATE NEXT SATURDAY BUT TIMING MAY BE ALTERED IN SUBSEQUENT  
RUNS AS CUT-OFF CIRCULATION IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY AFFECT  
ACTUAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION. 24/RR  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT  
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING THANKS TO A  
EASTWARD PROGRESSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC. LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PATCHY  
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, AND AROUND FAR  
SOUTH/EASTERN LOUISIANA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE  
TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME, THE EXTENT AND JUST HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL  
BE IS IN QUESTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A FEW  
SITES WITH TEMPO FOG. LIKE THIS MORNING, FOG WILL NOT LAST LONG  
THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NO RAIN AND ONLY SOME  
THIN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. KLG  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THANKS TO A  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH NO HAZARDOUS  
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, A  
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL PUSH INTO NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. AT THIS TIME, ONLY DAMAGING WINDS  
AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS BEFORE ALL CONVECTION LIKELY  
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
TO PRESS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, CLEARING SOUTH OF ALL MARINE ZONES BY  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE PREVAILING  
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH MAY BE GUSTY AND REACH AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT  
CRITERIA. SPECIFIC TIMING AT THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN, BUT WIND GUSTS  
AVERAGING 15-25 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY, AND WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ONCE  
BETTER MIXING OCCURS ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 5 TO 7 FEET, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS OUTER MARINE ZONES. KLG  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH  
VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR ADVISORY  
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL, OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 49 77 56 76 / 0 0 10 40  
BTR 51 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 40  
ASD 49 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 40  
MSY 53 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 30  
GPT 50 71 56 74 / 0 0 0 40  
PQL 49 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 30  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
24/RR  
 
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