516  
FXUS64 KLIX 071738 AAC  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1138 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023  
 
A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING IGNITE POCKETS OF LIGHT TO  
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I55  
CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO  
INTERIOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS FOR TODAY,  
MOSTLY JUST EXTENDING THE MENTIONABLE POPS WEST TO INCLUDE MOST  
OF THE METRO AND THE HAMMOND TO MCCOMB AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION  
HAS DEVELOPED LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SURFACE MOISTURE (DEWS NOW  
IN THE 60S RESPECTIVELY) AND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS  
CERTAINLY DOING ITS JOB IN TERMS OF KEEPING THE AREA A BIT ON THE  
WARMER SIDE. FOR TODAY, DID NOT GO AS BULLISH WITH INCREASING  
MAXTS ACROSS THE BOARD AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT EXCESSIVE  
WARMING FROM INSOLATION. (FRYE)  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023  
 
ALOFT, THERE'S RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NEW  
ENGLAND. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE,  
HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER  
WESTERN ONTARIO HAD A COLD FRONT TO NEAR CHICAGO, ST. LOUIS,  
DALLAS AND ON TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA. RADAR IS STARTING TO  
DETECT A FEW VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOES OVER THE LOUISIANA  
COASTAL PARISHES. AT 3 AM CST, TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA WERE  
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, BUT GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE  
WERE IN THE MID 60S.  
 
AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED TODAY,  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MARINE REGIME. WARM  
TEMPERATURES NEAR 700 MB WILL PROVIDE A CAP TO LIMIT DEEP  
CONVECTION. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF IN  
DURATION. CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION  
FOG NEAR THE COAST WITH MID 60S DEW POINTS MOVING OVER WATER  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. QUESTION WILL BE WIND SPEED.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD  
ACROSS TEXAS AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE IT LIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY MID LEVELS FOR  
MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN  
THE 1.0 TO 1.2 RANGE. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, AND BEYOND 21Z THERE'LL BE SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL  
FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO  
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. ANY ORGANIZED FORCING WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE  
CWA THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  
 
OVERALL, NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE  
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC NUMBERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A BIT OF  
NOD TOWARD THE WARMER NUMBERS WHERE THERE IS A DIFFERENCE AWAY  
FROM THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023  
 
MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND  
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFT FROM TEXAS TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY  
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS CRANK UP BRIEFLY WITH 45-50 KNOT  
WINDS AS LOW AS 850-900 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T REALLY  
SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN SYNC, WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW  
THEM BOTH AVAILABLE AT THE SAME TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS THE  
BEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING AFTER  
SUNSET, BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HOLD ONTO  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND FIELDS  
BECOME NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A QLCS SETUP,  
MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 10 NORTHWARD. THREAT PROBABLY WON'T REACH  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 8 PM WEDNESDAY, REACHING  
THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL  
SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE FAR EASTERN  
PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, AS THE MAIN IMPETUS IS  
REMOVED WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, FEEL  
ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN BEYOND SUNRISE  
THURSDAY WILL BE EITHER EAST OF THE AREA OR LIMITED TO THE COASTAL  
WATERS AND PERHAPS LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH.  
 
A SECOND STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW RAPIDLY ON  
THE HEELS OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, SWEEPING EVERYTHING  
EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SHOWERS WITH  
THAT SYSTEM, BUT STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN ARE NOT  
ANTICIPATED OVER OUR AREA. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, MUCH COOLER/COLDER  
AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE  
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE  
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH POTENTIALLY  
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOMEWHERE AROUND  
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
BEYOND FRIDAY, GFS/ECMWF/NBM DETERMINISTIC NUMBERS ARE IN  
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART. DID HAVE TO SHADE  
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE  
USUALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023  
 
MOSTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR. THE  
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY BRINGS VIS/CIGS DOWN A CATEGORY FROM THERE.  
OVERNIGHT LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS ADVECTION FOG  
BEGINS TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE WATER).  
IFR OR PERHAPS LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z  
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE  
INCREASING THROUGH THE CYCLE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST IN  
VIS IS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. (FRYE)  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023  
 
WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO WIND DOWN  
THIS MORNING ON SCHEDULE. ABOUT AN 18-24 HOUR LULL BEFORE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER  
WE'LL NEED AN ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR JUST EXERCISE CAUTION  
HEADLINES. DON'T REALLY GET INTO A STRONG COLD ADVECTION SITUATION  
UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PASSES ON FRIDAY, WITH ADVISORIES  
LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 72 58 75 54 / 40 20 50 90  
BTR 79 61 80 56 / 20 20 50 90  
ASD 75 61 76 59 / 30 40 50 80  
MSY 77 63 77 59 / 20 30 50 80  
GPT 71 60 71 61 / 40 30 40 60  
PQL 74 60 75 60 / 30 20 30 50  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RDF  
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...RDF  
MARINE...RW  
 
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