925
FXUS64 KLIX 011105
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
605 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- UNLESS CONVECTION HELPS TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 BOTH
DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
GIVEN THE RATHER LACK OF ANY STRONG SYNOPTIC FEATURE AND WHAT IN
ALL ASPECTS IS A DIRTY RIDGE OVER THE AREA, THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT WITH
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FEATURES, BOUNDARIES, AND CONVECTION COMPLEXES.
JUST TO MENTION A FEW ONE IS A CURRENT COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN MO. DOES THIS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW OR DOES IT CONTINUE TO ON AND BEGIN TO SURGE
MORE SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHER
CONCERNS ARE ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION
ALONG WITH ANY OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARIES THAT TRY TO MOVE IN FROM
CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHWESTERN AL THAT WERE IDENTIFIABLE ON RADAR
AROUND 3-5Z BUT NOT AS MUCH NOW. ALSO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY DO WE GET
ALONG THE SEABREEZE TODAY AND WHAT IF ANY IMPACT THERE IS WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOW DOES A LAKE BREEZE MOVING NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
INTERACT WITH ANY CONVECTION (IF THERE IS ANY) MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MS OR CONVECTION MOVING NORTH FROM
COASTAL SELA. HOW DOES THIS ACTIVITY PLAY/INTERACT/INTERFERE WITH
POSSIBLE CONVECTION TUESDAY. DO WE GET A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
MOVING SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WHICH COULD PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY CAUSING CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE THE MORE LIKELY DAY
OF NUMEROUS STORMS. DO WE SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP TO OUR FAR NORTH
TRY TO WORK DOWN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. THAT IS JUST SOME OF THE CONCERNS AND FORECAST PROBLEMS
WE ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE AND THE MODELS HAVE ABOUT HALF A DOZEN
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES AND SHIFT THINGS AROUND WITH EACH RUN. GIVEN
ALL OF THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT WE WILL TRY TO GIVE OUR BEST SHOT HERE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER WE ARE UNDER WHAT CAN BASICALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED AS A DIRTY RIDGE. H5 HGHTS ARE SITTING AROUND
588-590 DM WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER END FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE) AND THE H85 TEMPS OF 18-19C AND H7 TEMPS
OF NEAR 9-10C TODAY ARE BOTH AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE HOWEVER
THEY APPEAR TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY TO AROUND 17-18C AND
7-9C RESPECTIVELY WHICH IS DOES GET BELOW THE 75TH. THIS ALL WOULD
MAKE CONVECTION A TOUCH HARDER JUST LOOKING AT THOSE BUT PWS WILL
BE NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE 2" WITH GOES16 TPW MEASURING OVER 2.1" JUST
OFF THE SELA COAST SLOWLY SLIDING NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
SUBTLE WEAK MID LVL JET STREAK SHOWING UP IN SOME OF THE MORE
GLOBAL MODELS COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE TX BIG BEND AREA. LOOKING AT
WV RIGHT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE ENHANCEMENT IN THE IMAGE COMING
FROM THAT LOCATION AND THAT TIMES OUT TO BE AROUND 23/00Z AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CWA. THIS ISN'T A STRONG IMPULSE BUT GIVEN THE LACK
OF OVERWHELMING SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE AND THIS FEATURE
ACTUALLY ABLE TO CUT RIGHT THROUGH IT, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
TODAY ALONG ANY NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES FEEL A LITTLE BETTER WE WILL
SEE SOME DECENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO IF THAT MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MO AND
NORTHERN AR HOLDS ON LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MS. THE OTHER INTERESTING AND POSSIBLY WORRISOME
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY REAL SETUP/FEATURE THIS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON
MULTIPLE THINGS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WE DO HAVE A RIDGE IN PLACE,
THE LACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LL WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO THE SEABREEZE ACTIVATING AND SURGING
NORTHER EARLIER MEANS CONVECTION LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
MIDDAY IF NOT EARLY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LESS CLOUD
COVER MOST OF THE DAY ALLOWING US TO HEAT UP. GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, AND H5
TEMPS EXPECTED TO COOL 2-3 DEGREES (AROUND -6 TO -7C FROM THE -4C
WE HAD YESTERDAY), THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. CAPE VALUES COULD EASILY BE AROUND OR OVER 4K J/KG
WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY RANGE FROM 6.5 TO 7.2 C/KM. DCAPE IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MID LVL DRY AIR BUT
IS STILL RIGHT AROUND 900-1K J/KG. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS WIND AND WET MICROBURST BUT CAN;T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL, THAT SAID THE FREEZING LVL IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15.5K FT. SO WITH THAT AND THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE IT WILL TAKE A RATHER POTENT STORM TO GET
SOME HAIL.
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THOSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
MS AND THE ADJACENT FL PARISHES. THOSE STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
TOWARDS I-12 AND DEPENDING ON HOW GREAT THE COVERAGE IS MAY HELP
TO CREATE A COLD POOL ALLOW THEM TO OR AT LEAST AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. IF THAT DEVELOPS HOW
STRONG THE COLD POOL IS AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT DRIVES IT COULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT SAY IN CONVECTION TUESDAY. THAT ALONG WITH ANY
POSSIBLE MCS THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
IF THERE IS A STRONG COLD POOL FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THAT DRIVES TOWARDS THE COAST CONVECTION WHICH LOOKED HIGHLY
LIKELY TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. THAT
SAID ON THING THAT WOULD WORK IN FAVOR OF CONVECTION STILL
DEVELOPING IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A GOOD BIT OF TIME TO TRY
AND RECOVER. AS THE DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST DIGS
WE WILL MOVE UNDER PURE NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING MUCH LATER IN THE DAY DURING THE SUMMER (IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS). GIVEN WE WILL STILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH PWS NEAR 2" CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY POSSIBLE IF
NOT EXPECTED. COMBINE THAT WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (WHICH
IS CURRENTLY STALLED AROUND KY/TN) WE WILL HAVE SOME SUPPORT TO
GET CONVECTION. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY IS HOW MUCH THE AREA GETS HEAVILY IMPACTED
BY CONVECTION FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IF CONVECTION STRUGGLES MORE TODAY AND THERE IS NO MCS SENDING A
STRONG COLD POOL INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THEN
THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY COULD BE GREATER THAN
TODAY. WE WILL HAVE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AGAIN
BUT THIS TIME WOULD COMBINE WITH AN ACTUAL FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA AND NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME SPC ONLY HAS GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR EARLY JUNE. SLIGHTLY COOLER LL TEMPS WILL
MOVE IN BUT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN MS ADJACENT LA PARISHES
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COASTAL MS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ONLY A FEW DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD
LOWS HOWEVER WE WILL SEE IF THIS ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AND THOSE
DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY CAN BOTTOM OUT. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA THURSDAY EVENING.
ANY RESIDUAL DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO BE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE WEEKEND,
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO LARGE SCALE FORCING, WITH MOISTURE SO
ABUNDANT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, LAKE AND SEA BREEZES AS
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
80S. THE MOST FAVORED TIMES OVER LAND WILL BE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY WANING TOWARD SUNSET. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM AT -5 OR
-6C, SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW. HOWEVER,
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MEAN THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
WITH STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR ANY LENGTH OF
TIME.
AS NOTED ABOVE, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
80S, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH WARMER THAN THAT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 70S. /RW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ALL TERMINALS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW MAY TEMPORARILY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SOME LOW STRATUS MOVES ACROSS A FEW OF THE
SITES. OTHER THAN NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TILL MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF CONVECTION
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE IMPACTS FROM
CONVECTION WILL BE MCB AND HUM WITH PROB30'S FOR THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 22-3Z. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 2 FEET. THE SEABREEZE CYCLE WILL LEAD TO SOME VARIABILITY IN
WIND DIRECTION NEAR THE COAST, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE
UP IN RELATION TO THIS SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE CYCLE. ANY STORMS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIP
INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE CHAOTIC AS IT STALLS OVER THE WATERS BUT EAST OF THE MS DELTA
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS
POSSIBLY EVEN APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS COULD DEVELOP. BY THURSDAY
THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT AND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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