764
FXUS64 KLIX 182318
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
618 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THAT HIGH HAS CUTOFF ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND
BARELY EVEN LETTING CLOUDS DEVELOP. THE 12Z SOUNDING DOES A GOOD JOB
OF SHOWING JUST HOW DRY THE COLUMN IS ALOFT WITH PW AT 1.07". THATS
JUST ABOVE THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINIMAL MIXING
IS WHY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE SO PLEASANT COMPARATIVELY TO PRETTY
MUCH ANY TIME SINCE THIS PAST SPRING. THE UNFORTUNATE NEWS IS THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND START
USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE
LOW 590S, HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH WELL INTO THE 90S. THERE'S NOT
MUCH VARIATION IN FORECAST HIGHS FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES,
LENDING TO FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMP FORECAST. PROBABLY WON'T REACH
RECORDS BUT SURE WILL BE CLOSE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WHAT WILL BE
NOTICEABLE IS HEAT INDICES INCREASING BACK INTO THE 100S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A TRANSITION BACK INTO A
WETTER PATTERN. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THAT FEATURE TAKES
THAT PATH, IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN RIDGING ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. AS A RESULT OF THAT...
WARM SURFACE TEMPS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHEASTERN US. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD, BECOMING CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MID WEEKEND. LOCAL WINDS WILL RESPOND
TO THIS BY WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE ONSHORE AS OPPOSED TO THE
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WE'VE HAD ALL WEEK LONG. WEAKER WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THAT
RIDGE REMAINS NEARBY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...ME
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