745
FXUS64 KLIX 071002 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
502 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND THOSE OPERATING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF EAST-FACING SHORES INCLUDING WAVELAND
AND SHELL BEACH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS DURING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN UPWARDS OF 1 FOOT OF WATER
INUNDATING LOW-LYING ROADS NEAR SHORELINE PARK AND VENETIAN
ISLE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A COOL START FOR MANY THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I10/12 DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S. ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE, UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S WERE COMMON WITH THE WIND OFF THE LAKES. TODAY
CAN BE MOSTLY CHARACTERIZED AS A DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STILL A ENE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH A QUASI
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER PARISHES. MODERATE
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO PILE WATER UP AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACING SHORES AND EVENTUALLY DRAW WATER INTO THE TIDAL
LAKES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING GOING
INTO LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOR TODAY AND
NEEDING MORE EASTERLY FETCH AND TIME DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES FOR THIS TIDE CYCLE, BUT WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, A STATEMENT OR ADVISORY
WILL BE LIKELY GOING INTO THE TIDE CYCLES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR WAVELAND AS WELL
AS SHELL BEACH AREAS.
THURSDAY THE MORE MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS SURFACE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE BEST QPF SIGNAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I10/12 CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS, THE SHORT
TERM LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT. OTHERWISE, WITH
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW, EXPECT A
MODEST WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
AS WE COME OFF OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, IMPACTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO EASE AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS DROP MOVING TOWARD A
NEAP TIDE CYCLE AND WINDS CONCURRENTLY ALSO BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY.
BASED ON THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE BY SATURDAY
HIGH TIDE LEVELS ACROSS THE OPEN COAST SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN COULD BE IN MORE
PROTECTED AREAS WHERE MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING MAY PERSIST FOR AN
EXTRA DAY OR TWO DUE TO SLOWER DRAINAGE.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOK TO
RIDE THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL. (DM)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MSY, NEW, AND PERHAPS GPT,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX A
BIT SOON AFTER SUNSET. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS FOR INEXPERIENCED MARINERS AND OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT , ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
UNPROTECTED OPEN WATERS WILL ALSO APPROACH 8 TO 12 FEET DURING THE
PEAK OF THESE WINDS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RELAXING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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