947
FXUS64 KLIX 211001
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S TODAY AND BRING SOME OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH JUST
UNDER FREEZING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE
ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF FOG PRODUCTION. FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN
ISSUE THIS MORNING OR SUN MORNING BUT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WE CAN MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT, WE COULD SEE CONDITIONS
THAT SUPPORT PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
BY MONDAY, CONDITIONS START TO SUPPORT AN ADVECTIVE FOG PATTERN. AND
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF FOG DAYS HERE, THERE SHOULD BE A CONTRIBUTION
FROM BOTH RADIATION AND ADVECTIVE PATTERNS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED(CHRISTMAS DAY).
THE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK OFF TUE ALLOWING THE INSTABILITY
TO REMAIN WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES IN. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP ITS
SH/TS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FIRST TUE NIGHT BEFORE ANY
CHANCE OF STORMS BY WED MORNING. THE STRONG S/W DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE H3 TROUGH WED DOES SO OVER THE GULF BUT IS
MORE IMPRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH OK/TX LATE TUE AND WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF AND STRONGEST WINDS XFER TO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP ONCE THIS FRONT
REACHES OUR AREA. THIS FRONT STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA AS THE
NEXT QUICKLY DEVELOPING FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD US AND STALLS BY
FRI BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
STORMS AROUND THE AREA. THIS PATTERN JUST SETS UP A VERY MESSY
SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA STARTING WED AND LASTING INTO OR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS NO REAL HAZARD OF SEVERE WX, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL POSSIBLY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS
MORE OF A WET MUGGY CLOUDY SEVERAL DAYS. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES BECAUSE IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE AND IF THIS
SECOND FRONT STALLS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SCA CONDITIONS AND FLAGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
WINDS EASE A BIT TO AROUND 15KT AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY LATE SUNDAY AND SE BY
TUE REMAINING AROUND 15KT MOST OF THE TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AND
FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR A FEW DAYS BETWEEN TUE AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 29 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 57 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 55 32 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 55 40 57 46 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 55 33 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 58 31 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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