491
FXUS64 KLIX 162340
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
- CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70%) OF DEVELOPMENT. MARINE
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
- RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS AS WELL WITH FORECAST AREAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS MUCH
HIGHER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE
COUNTRY, WITH ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST COAST STATES NOT UNDER
THIS TROUGH. THE N/S AXIS IS ROUGHLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO DAUPHIN
ISLAND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE,
WITH OBSERVED AND FORECAST PW VALUES AROUND 2.2-2.4". THIS MOISTURE,
COMBINED WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN ANY CONVECTION.
RADAR SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED, MORESO WHERE CLOUD CONVECTION IS LESS ROBUST, WITH SBCAPE
NEAR 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION. WHILE BOTH LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK, OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES FOR THE MOST PART.
THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALREADY SEEN
UPWARDS OF 5-8" RAIN, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. SO WHILE STORMS
MAY MOVE INDIVIDUALLY, REPEATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SAME CORRIDOR
COULD LEAD TO QUICK RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED
QUITE A BIT HIGHER WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT. LOW CLOUD
BASES, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (30KTS), SRH 200-300 SRH, AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STRONGER SURFACE-BASED STORM THAT CAN INTERACT
WITH THE STALLED FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A FEW CIRCULATIONS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOCALIZED AND CONDITIONAL, BUT BEARS WATCHING GIVEN THE
OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING, BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ANY LINGERING STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS, THOUGH A BRIEF SPIN-UP CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT NEAR ANY PERSISTENT BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. THE LOW THAT PROMPTED PTC
ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CWA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CAMS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW QUITE A BIT LESS
CONVECTION LOCALLY AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THAT'S LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY WHAT
NHC FORECASTS WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT WILL STILL BE QUITE SATURATED. WHAT YOU END UP WITH IS LESS
CONVECTION, SO MORE SUNSHINE WHICH ALLOWS FOR MORE WARMING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE THE BIGGEST LIMIT TO
TOR POTENTIAL, BUT STILL THINK THERE'S A LOW-END CONDITIONAL THREAT.
THAT THREAT
THURSDAY CARRIES A MIX OF THREATS SIMILAR TO BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. REMNANT TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THAT POSITION IN RELATION THE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS DEFINITELY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN BAND TRAINING. THIS IS SOMETHING WE'VE SEEN IN
THE AREA TIME AND TIME AGAIN. THE RESULT OF THIS SETUP IS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS WITH STREAKS OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. CAMS SUGGEST 10-20" ISOLATED TOTALS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. BUT LIKE ALL EVENTS, IF THAT'S OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN, NO ONE BUT THE FISH ARE IMPACTED. THE OTHER SIDE OF
THIS SETUP POTENTIAL IS WEAK TORS EMBEDDED WITHIN ANY STRONGER RAIN
BANDS, ESPECIALLY WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ENHANCES NEAR-SURFACE
INSTABILITY ALONG BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WITHIN AN ALREADY
MOIST, LOW-LCL, AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES UNTIL THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY, BUT WON'T GET SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW TWO INCHES
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS
REMAINING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY REMAIN AT LEAST A LOW END
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT IT SHOULDN'T BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ON FATHER'S DAY.
HIGHS LIKELY TO GET IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY, AND A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER EACH DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCB, WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE. THROUGH 06Z,
TSRA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KHUM. AN AREA OF DRYING IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA,
CUTTING OFF THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALL DAY. DO EVENTUALLY EXPECT A BUILDDOWN
OF CEILINGS TOWARD SUNRISE TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS, AND IFR AT
KMCB. FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS NOW DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR
2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHILE THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL
LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTH TEXAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER LOCAL MARINE WATERS TO INCREASE VIA TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WELL INTO THE MID
20 KNOT RANGE SHOULD BE A GOOD PROCTOR FOR OBSERVED WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS
MID/LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WON'T APPRECIABLY
RELAX UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LAZ091-093-095-097.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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