344
FXUS64 KLIX 031126
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
626 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WARM WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MARINE AREAS AND MAY BE IN AND
OUT OF CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND MAY RISE TO AROUND 25KT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. BUT THIS
WON'T BE THE CASE AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AND A FRONT APPROACHES.
THE MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA TO BRING ABOUT BETTER COVERAGE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TO GET A FEW SH/TS AT SOME POINT SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR LOW END SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT AND THE MARGINAL RISK
THAT SPC IS SHOWING SHOULD SUFFICE FOR SAT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
GOING INTO THE LONG TERM, GLOBALS ARE STILL NOT IN "GREAT"
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO STALL THE FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL H5 FLOW ALOFT. THE ECM ET AL WANT TO SEND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND GENERALLY OUTSIDE OF THE LOCAL
WATERS CLEAR ALL RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY (THE DRIER SOLUTION).
THAT SAID, STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SUCH
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS WOULD LEAD TO A WETTER SOLUTION IN ADDITIONAL
TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE WOULD
BE MORE CLOUDINESS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP BEHIND WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WITH THE CWFA BEING ON THE COOLER
SIDE. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN WOULD BE TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. THERE WOULD BE A VAST DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
COOLER THAN THE ECM...COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15 OR MORE DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY. CURRENTLY, WE ARE GENERALLY GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
SOLUTION, HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND IF THE GFS WINS THE GLOBAL MODEL
RACE, MONDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH A DRY NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVENTUALLY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK TO A MORE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD, WHICH MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO START
THE NEW WORKWEEK, BUT OVERALL A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 70S AS THE
PERIOD ENDS. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
PROBABILITIES ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR KBTR AT THIS TIME,
WITH PROB30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP
AT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF WINDS APPROACHING
20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WILL TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE/RW
MARINE...TE
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