485
FXUS64 KLIX 290631
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1231 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK, STRONGER/COLDER THAN LAST
WEEKEND, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
VERY COLD, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DANGEROUSLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO BE ON
THE HORIZON THE ENTIRE WEEKEND, STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
COOL AND DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN
THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST WILL RUN INTO THE REGION. YESTERDAY WAS A
MORE PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WHILE A WEAK S/W MOVED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY BUT THURSDAY HIGHS COULD
OCCUR EARLY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT QUICKLY BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES SURGING SOUTHEAST THAT AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED S/W
LOOK TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE L/W TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THE FIRST S/W WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL HAVE A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IT WILL TRAVERSE
FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH COLD AIR HANGING BACK UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND THEN WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
BUT REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD FEW DAYS THIS WEEKEND
AS OUR SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN LESS THAN
A WEEK. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE EVERY BIT AS COLD IF NOT
COLDER BUT THE WIND CHILLS COULD ACTUALLY BE COLDER AS THE WIND
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND THE BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD LAST LONGER
THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. H925 TEMPS
COULD DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN TO -12 TO -14C BY EARLY SATURDAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND REMAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ALL WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ON SATURDAY AND THEN MID TEENS TO MID
20S ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY DRIVER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE CAA. WITH
THAT WE DIDN'T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS BUT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AND COULD PROVIDE SOME ROOM
TO DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE. MOS IS QUITE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING BUT
THE NBM IS VERY WARM AND IS ACTUALLY ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE.
HOWEVER EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN WINDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 15 KTS AT H925 AND H85. OUTSIDE OF THOSE WINDS THE SETUP IS
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS LOWS COULD
FALL RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID LOWS THIS PAST TUESDAY DID NOT
QUITE FALL AS MUCH AS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA SO
HAVE DECIDE TO NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS FROM THE NBM FOR
SUNDAY MORNING BUT DID LOWER THE DRAINAGE AREAS 1-2 DEGREES.
SO WITH LOWS THAT COLD THOSE TWO MORNINGS THE OTHER QUESTION IS WIND
CHILL VALUES AND GIVEN THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING THOSE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRUTAL ONCE AGAIN. MIN WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MS TO MID TEENS ON THE
SOUTHSHORE. WITH STRONG CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE MORNING THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A WARM UP DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY
APPROACHING 30 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET INTO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THOSE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS ALL DAY THE WIND CHILL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EVEN CLIMB ABOVE THE UPPER 20S. ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO FALL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DROP AND THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE
BACK BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 01-02Z IF NOT EARLIER. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT WITH MIN WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE LACK OF THE
WIND CHILL GETTING ABOVE THE UPPER 20S WE DECIDED TO ONCE AGAIN
ISSUE AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUN IT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN GOT SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
AND THE NBM MAY BE WARMING THINGS UP JUST A TOUCH TOO FAST SO WE DID
USE A BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM50. WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE NEXT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE
ON FRIDAY. /CAB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY.
HOWEVER IT WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS LEADING TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
OVERNIGHT. ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. BY AFTERNOON SCY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AND AS DEEPER COLD AIR DRIVES
INTO THE REGION WINDS NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GALE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY
SUNDAY. /CAB/
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ056>060-065.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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