790
FXUS64 KLIX 222322
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
622 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
105 TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS RETURN MID WEEK. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA TO START
THE WORKWEEK TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
LOOK A LOT MORE LIKE OUR NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. DAILY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55. THESE STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE
IN NATURE, BUT A STRONG WIND GUST (40-50MPH) CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
THE MS COAST. BUT OVERALL, THESE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE
SPATIALLY WITH 20-30% POPS DAILY EAST OF I-55 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN TERMS OF THE HEAT, HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS A RESULT,
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE LAKE
MONDAY. MORE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AT
LEAST. MSW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AS THE RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BUILD MORE
OVER OUR AREA , WE WILL DRY OUT A BIT MORE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED CHANCES (10-20%) OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IF THEY OCCUR, BUT
WILL HAVE THE RISK OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (40-50MPH).
DUE TO THE LOWER CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, HEAT CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN TH MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES EVERY DAY THIS WEEKEND.
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS AND BE SURE TO HYDRATE! MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH ONE EXCEPTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT MCB, FOR A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK, A LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED THAT WILL
DROP CONDITIONS INTO IFR RANGE. /SCHLOTZ/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH IS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, THE CENTER
OF THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIVEN WEST AND INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL
GULF. THAT WILL PUT IT RIGHT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE THE WIND FIELD. SO EXPECT LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS TUES AND WED. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AND TRACKS EAST,
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER THAN TRACKS BACK EAST WHICH BRINGS OUR
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ058-064-076>078-
080-082-084-087-098-099.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ058-064-
076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MSW
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