624
FXUS64 KLIX 011033 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
533 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN FOR
WHERE TO TAKE SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THEIR LOCATION.
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POSSIBLY REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
OVERALL, THE TREND AGAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY IS RATHER ON THE DRY SIDE
WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. UPSTREAM WE
ARE WATCHING A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN ULL TO DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. UP STREAM WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A FRONT OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TODAY LOOKS A BIT LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF QPF, A NONZERO
CONVECTIVE CHANCE WILL BE THERE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDING
OVER THE MS GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SET UP ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS ISN'T
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER LAND, POPS ARE A BIT MORE MODEST THAN
OTHERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT SAID, WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE, THERE WILL BE SOME NIGHT TIME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
GULF WATERS.
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE
NEW WORKWEEK. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES AND
NO HEAT HEADLINES LOOK TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SADLY, THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED AND MOSTLY
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BY TUESDAY EVENING, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER MUCH OF CANADA,
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT MAY BE CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 20,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE AROUND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES), AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY,
BUT VERY WEAK, THOSE MOISTURE LEVELS WON'T REALLY START TO INCREASE
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND 2
INCHES, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE.
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FIRING OFF ALONG LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AREAL COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30 TO 40 PERCENT
AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THE
BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE. (RW)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS (GPT). HOWEVER,
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF MCB. IN CONVECTION EXPECT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR MAYBE LOWER IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE ONCE WE DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WASHES OUT.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES LOCATED MORE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE IN THE 1 TO 3
FEET RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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