176
FXUS64 KLIX 092157
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR THE WHOLE AREA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE
TOMORROW AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS.
- IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) FOR THE WHOLE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR NOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM ALONG I-59 AND WESTWARD
WHERE WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES.
- AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY, GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING ON SUNDAY, AS THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
DANGEROUS FOR SMALL VESSELS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS HAVE STAYED CONFINED TO A
SW TO NE BAND EXTENDING FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO TYLERTOWN, MS.
THIS CONFLUENT BAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TRAILING IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. WITH THE LEADING IMPULSE EJECTING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, THE LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH IT, BRINGING ITS SHEAR AND DYNAMICS WITH IT.
THAT MEANS, IN THE SHORT TERM (2-3 HOURS), THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE WITHOUT SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
SINCE WE HAVE ABUNDANT THERMODYNAMICS (>1500J/KG MLCAPE).
HOWEVER, THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING WOFS) INDICATES
THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN A SECONDARY LOW-LEVEL JET SHORTLY
AFTER 5PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE WIND SHEAR AGAIN
AND INITIATE MORE STORMS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE
STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, THESE STORMS WILL
POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE CURRENT
INDICATION IS THAT THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA (POINTE COUPEE, FELICIANAS, AND SW
MS). THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCE HAS THE LLJ MAX EJECTING BETWEEN
5PM AND MIDNIGHT, SO THAT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN TIMEFRAME OF THE
NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY COME FROM
AROUND LAFAYETTE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE
CEILING FOR THIS ROUND IS A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO THAT COULD BE ON
THE GROUND FOR A LITTLE BIT (VERSUS QUICK SPINUPS) SINCE THE
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE MORE ELONGATED RATHER THAN
LOOPING. OF COURSE, THE FLOOR IS A CONTINUED MESS OF CONVECTION
LEADING TO A FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH TRAINING CELLS.
LIKE ALLUDED TO BEFORE, EVEN IF WE DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A SEVERE
RISK WITH THE NEXT ROUND AFTER 5PM, FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN SINCE THE INITIATING BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY PARALLEL THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE GET A HEAVY RAIN BAND
SET UP OVER A DENSELY POPULATED AREA SUCH AS BATON ROUGE OR
MCCOMB. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON EXACT PLACEMENT BUT EVEN A 5 MILE
SHIFT CAN CAUSE A 2-3 INCH RAINFALL DIFFERENCE. SO, THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR WHERE THAT BANDING SETS UP BECAUSE
WHEREVER IT DOES SET UP COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 5-6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING WELL OUT OF
THE AREA BY THAT TIME, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. THE HODOGRAPH LOOKS TO BE VERY STRAIGHT FOR THESE STORMS,
LEADING TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WHEN COUPLED WITH 1000
J/KG MLCAPE. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE DONE WITH WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND TO 20MPH. THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHERE AREAS IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT
FLORIDA PARISHES COULD BRIEFLY SEE FREEZING CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM WAS JUST AT OR ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY MORNING, SO THE 50TH PERCENTILE
WAS BLENDED TO BUMP DOWN THOSE NUMBERS DUE TO THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHERE
HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET EVEN IN THE MID 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING,
RELAXING OUR WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THE SAME AREAS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT COULD SEE FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW.
THAT HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WE GET SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS HELPS US WARM UP SLIGHTLY
TO THE MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THAT GETS TOWARDS THE END OF
OUR FORECAST PERIOD, SO THERE IS DECENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
AND HOW COLD WE GET BEHIND IT, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE OUR NEXT
FREEZE POTENTIAL LATER THAT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS AS WELL AS THE
LOW CEILINGS WITH THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BECAUSE
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM, MOST OF THE TERMINALS
HAVE PROB30S BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
START TO WORK DOWN AROUND 2-3Z TO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE LIFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
WINDOW OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN WINDS,
AN SCS WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR NOW UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME LIKELY
STRONG TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, WE WILL HAVE A
WELL SET UP FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF WHAT IS CALLED CONFUSED SEAS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE OUTER WATERS (20-60NM) AND WEST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SUNDAY AS WIND WILL LIKELY BE OVER
20KT IN ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 69 40 55 / 90 70 0 0
BTR 64 71 42 60 / 80 70 0 0
ASD 64 74 43 60 / 80 80 10 0
MSY 67 74 48 60 / 70 70 10 0
GPT 64 72 45 59 / 80 90 10 0
PQL 64 74 43 60 / 70 90 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LAZ036-037-039-046>048-
056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MSZ069>071-077-083-086.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
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