710
FXUS64 KLIX 242345
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
545 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- AN ICE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WILKINSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHERE ONE QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR AMITE COUNTY AS WELL AS POINTE COUPEE AND
WEST FELICIANA PARISHES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SELA AND SWMS
TONIGHT AND EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS CHILLS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO 15 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING AND FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS TUESDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY(SCY) AND A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SCY BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE GALE WARNING IS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY STRONG WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
INCORPORATED NUMEROUS CHANGES BASED ON FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND
ONGOING CONDITIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN LOUISIANA AT MIDDAY WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH/LOW EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAD
SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 55 AT MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WERE IN
THE 50S AT NOON CST, BUT WERE AS COLD AS 42 AT MCCOMB TO 67 AT
GRAND ISLE AND 70 AT SOUTHWEST PASS.
CURRENT AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME
SPOTS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION, OR AT LEAST
PRECIPITATION RATES, WITH THE EXIT OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE.
THE QUESTION, AT LEAST REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL, IS
HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE WARM FRONT GETS. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS
THAT FROM ABOUT BOGALUSA TO HAMMOND TO ABOUT DONALDSONVILLE
WESTWARD WILL REMAIN IN THE COLDER AIR. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR,
PRIMARILY COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ROTATION. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED, PERHAPS 500
J/KG, BUT SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR JACKSON AND HARRISON
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STORM TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY LIKELY. IF THAT OCCURS OVER
URBAN AREAS, ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AT MIDDAY, THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF VICKSBURG
TO ALEXANDRIA TO FORT POLK. THAT'S UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S, AND ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE MUCH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS TO THE WEST, IT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS, PROBABLY NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN WILKINSON COUNTY COULD FALL TO
FREEZING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS, WITH
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID-MORNING. THAT WOULD SET UP
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN, AND
HAVE UPGRADED THAT AREA TO AN ICE STORM WARNING, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO THE EAST OF THAT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST, AND INCOMING FORECAST GUIDANCE, NBM25 WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS TO THE WATCH AREA ARE
LIKELY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE
AREA PRIOR TO SUNSET SUNDAY. THERE IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN THAT IF
ROADWAYS REMAIN WET AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT THERE COULD BE
ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS. IF WE CAN GET AROUND 6 HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING, THAT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRY OUT PAVEMENT.
COLD WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
HAVE UPGRADED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A WARNING FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
IF THERE'S A BRIGHT SPOT, THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY. THE BAD NEWS
IS...IT WON'T BE WARM. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA MONDAY
INTO MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA MAY NOT EVEN
RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, AND EVEN THE "WARMER" PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ARE ONLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 40S FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLDER (MID TEENS TO MID 20S) THAN MONDAY
MORNING'S LOWS, BUT WITHOUT THE WIND. THOSE LOWS WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH EXPOSED WATER PIPES. IN
ANY CASE, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S. MUCH OF
THE AREA COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL MORNINGS BELOW FREEZING, BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TUESDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS/OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, TERMINALS ARE
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW
(LESS THAN 1000 FT) AND VISIBILITIES WILL VARY BASED ON HOW HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AT THE TERMINAL. SOME TERMINALS COULD SEE A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL ALSO START TO PICK UP IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS CLOSER TO WATER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AT MIDDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL NECESSITATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ONCE THE
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING AND INCREASE TO SUSTAINED AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 KTS. THE TIDAL LAKES WILL SEE THE WIND INCREASE
FIRST, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 00Z
MONDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL FOLLOW SUIT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH THAT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A GALE WARNING (FREQUENT GUSTS) FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z MONDAY, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY. POTENTIALLY WILL NEED TO
EXTEND ADVISORIES BEYOND THAT POINT IN LATER FORECASTS, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ034>037-
046>048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR LAZ034-035.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LAZ036-037-039-046>048-071-083.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ068>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR MSZ069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MSZ070-071.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
MSZ068.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW
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