005
FGUS71 KBOX 301350
ESFBOX
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-071530-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
950 AM EST THU MAR 30 2023
...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
THE WINTER/SPRING FRESHWATER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL, BUT IS
BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND,
AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOVE NORMAL IN FAR NORTHWEST
MASSACHUSETTS.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.
YOU CAN GO TO THIS LINK FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS FRESHWATER
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL.
THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2023 SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING FACTORS SUCH AS SNOW COVER,
SNOW WATER CONTENT, RIVER LEVELS, ICE COVERAGE, RECENT TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION, AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
..RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
MARCH HAS BEEN A WARM MONTH WITH FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS BRINGING
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MARCH 30 AVERAGED 2 TO 4 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. PARTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND, AND NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WHICH IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. PARTS
OF THE COAST FROM CONNECTICUT TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WERE
SEEING DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AS MUCH AS 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG PARTS OF SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS, INCLUDING CAPE COD.
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
THE SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MELT
AFTER THE SNOWSTORM IN MID MARCH. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WERE
LEFT ON THE GROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT, SNOW DEPTHS WERE UP TO
6 INCHES, EXCEPT ABOVE 1500 FEET IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE
SNOW DEPTHS WERE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET. THESE SNOW DEPTHS ARE
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY SPRING.
AN INCH OR SO OF WATER REMAINS IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHER THAN THAT, THE ONLY PLACES WITH WATER IN A
SNOWPACK STRETCH FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST HILLS OF CONNECTICUT NORTH
THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. IN THESE AREAS, WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE UP TO
2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES ARE FOUND RIGHT ON THE
MASSACHUSETTS BORDER WITH VERMONT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
..SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, RIVER AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS
THE RECENT WET WEATHER PATTERN LED TO SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIMITED FROST DEPTH TO PATCHY, NEAR
SURFACE TOPSOIL ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS WERE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SOME
SMALLER RIVERS IN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND WERE
EXPERIENCING FLOWS THAT WERE BELOW NORMAL. THE PERIOD FOR RIVER ICE
DEVELOPMENT HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.
GROUNDWATER WAS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. QUABBIN
RESERVOIR WAS AT 93.3 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND THE SMALLER WACHUSETT
RESERVOIR WAS AT 89.1 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF MARCH 27. BOTH OF
THESE RESERVOIRS WERE IN THE NORMAL OPERATING RANGE. SCITUATE
RESERVOIR, THE MAIN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PROVIDENCE, WAS AT 284.8 FEET AS OF MARCH 28.
THIS WAS 103.5 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. WATER AT THIS LEVEL IS FLOWING
OVER THE SPILLWAY UNCONTROLLED INTO THE MAINSTEM PAWTUXET RIVER.
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
OUR WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD AVERAGE 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY APRIL, ODDS FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH A WEAKER SIGNAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. FOR THE MONTH
OF APRIL, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL THAT FAVORS EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
..SUMMARY
THE SNOW PACK CONTINUES TO MELT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND IS CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS BROUGHT
INCREASED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH
HIGHER GROUND WATER LEVELS. BASED UPON THESE FACTORS AND THE
EXPECTATION OF A CONTINUED WARM AND WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS, THIS LEADS TO A SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT IS BELOW NORMAL IN
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOVE NORMAL IN FAR NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THE
SEASON.
KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CAN PROVIDE
A HEADS-UP FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
IT CAN BE ACCESSED AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=BOX
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
FRIDAY, APRIL 14.
JWD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page