543
FNUS71 KBOX 210736
FWSBOX
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEPB RX FIRE...MASSWILDLIFE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
336 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0500 EDT ON OCTOBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILD EAST TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER AROUND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH WINDS PICK UP LATER IN THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS MOVE OUT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
LEAVING A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGE FROM 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 55 TO 70 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND BUT MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN COMES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............52.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...55.
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (800 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................3.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
GROWTH.
CEILING (KFT).......20.
TIME (EDT) 5AM
SKY (%).........55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0
TEMP............61
DEWPOINT........52
RH..............86
HEAT INDEX (F)..55
20 FT WIND DIR..NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2
20 FT WIND GUST.12
SURFACE WND DIR.NW
SURFACE WND SPD.2
SURFACE WND GST.12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W
TRANSP WIND SPD.6
LVORI...........6
ADI.............3
HAINES INDEX....4
VRATE KT-FT/10001
CEILING (KFT)...20
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............53.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...71.
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 23 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 23 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-2900 FT AGL
EARLY, THEN DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (500-47400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR TO GOOD (18700-50600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 29, THEN INCREASING TO 50 EARLY
INCREASING TO 60 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 43 DECREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CEILING (KFT).......20 INCREASING TO 25.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........59 58 64 45 43 24 34 35 19 13 14 14
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............61 60 60 61 65 68 70 71 71 71 70 69
DEWPOINT........51 51 51 52 53 53 53 53 53 54 54 55
RH..............86 86 80 72 65 59 55 53 53 55 57 61
HEAT INDEX (F)..55 55 57 61 65 68 70 71 71 71 70 69
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 5 7 8 9 12 13 13 13 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 9 10 12 14 16 17 21 21 21 22
SURFACE WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
SURFACE WND SPD.2 3 3 5 7 8 9 12 13 13 13 12
SURFACE WND GST.10 10 9 10 12 14 16 17 21 21 21 22
MIX HGT (KFT)...M M 0.1 M M 2.5 M M 2.9 M M 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.M M SW M M SW M M SW M M SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.M M 5 M M 10 M M 18 M M 20
LVORI...........6 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
ADI.............3 5 5 11 29 51 49 59 64 55 43 26
HAINES INDEX....M M 4 M M 5 M M 5 M M 6
VRATE KT-FT/10001 1 1 7 20 36 41 47 51 40 29 19
CEILING (KFT)...20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............57.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...68.
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH UNTIL JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4200-14100 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................13.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CEILING (KFT).......20 INCREASING TO 25 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
DECREASING TO 20 EARLY INCREASING TO 25 IN THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING DECREASING TO 20
DECREASING TO 13 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........19 36 29 18 15 38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............68 65 62 62 62 62
DEWPOINT........56 59 58 58 59 59
RH..............65 81 87 87 90 90
HEAT INDEX (F)..68 65 62 62 62 62
20 FT WIND......SW 12 S 12 SW 12 SW 13 SW 14 SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.23 24 21 23 24 24
SURFACE WIND....SW 12 S 12 SW 12 SW 13 SW 14 SW 14
SURFACE WND GST.23 24 21 23 24 24
MIX HGT (FT)....M 300 M M 300 M
TRANSPORT WIND..M S 14 M M SW 16 M
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 5 5
ADI.............13 11 15 16 15 14
HAINES INDEX....M 5 M M 5 M
VRATE KT-FT/100014 6 5 5 5 5
CEILING (KFT)...20 20 25 25 20 15
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............59.
MAX APPARENT TEMP...71.
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4300 FT AGL
EARLY, THEN DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (7500-53300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR TO EXCELLENT (27800-68300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO FAIR (13400
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................17 INCREASING TO 36 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 46 INCREASING TO 59 EARLY
INCREASING TO 68 DECREASING TO 53 EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 38 DECREASING TO 20
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CEILING (KFT).......10 INCREASING TO 14 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........49 47 39 28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 65 70 70
DEWPOINT........59 60 60 59
RH..............90 86 70 67
HEAT INDEX (F)..62 65 70 70
20 FT WIND......SW 13G23 SW 12G20 SW 12G18 SW 10G17
SURFACE WIND....SW 13G23 SW 12G20 SW 12G18 SW 10G17
MIX HGT (FT)....M M M M
TRANSPORT WIND..M M M M
LVORI...........5 4 3 1
ADI.............13 36 61 54
HAINES INDEX....M M M M
VRATE KT-FT/10008 25 53 46
CEILING (KFT)...12 12 15 15
FORECASTER...BRW
REQUESTED BY...ALEX ENTRUP
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2119862.0/BOX
.DELDT 10/21/21
.EMAIL ALEX.ENTRUP@MASS.GOV
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