584
FNUS71 KBOX 151102
FWSBOX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MCSF- NORTHEAST TRACT- SUB-UNIT ECHO...DCR FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
602 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EST ON JANUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVITY WILL BE AROUND 70 PERCENT TODAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY. DRY WEATHER WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............34.
MIN APPARENT TEMP...29.
SURFACE WINDS.......EAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (11100-24100 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................8 INCREASING TO 25.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
CEILING (KFT).......1.5 INCREASING TO 10.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........82 80 77 75 72 73 74 75 75 75 75 79
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............36 35 37 39 41 42 43 43 43 42 41 40
DEWPOINT........34 34 34 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 34 34
RH..............92 96 89 85 79 76 70 70 70 73 76 79
HEAT INDEX (F)..30 29 31 33 35 36 37 37 37 36 34 33
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 18
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E
SURFACE WND SPD.7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12
SURFACE WND GST.13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 18
LVORI...........6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............8 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 27 28 29 21
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/100011 13 14 15 17 18 21 22 23 24 24 24
CEILING (KFT)...1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10 10 11 12 11
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............37 INCREASING TO 40 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN APPARENT TEMP...32.
SURFACE WINDS.......BREEZY. EAST WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO
22 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 36 MPH EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO
22 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38 MPH EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 33 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8400-22300 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................22 INCREASING TO 29 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
CEILING (KFT).......10 DECREASING TO 9.0 IN THE EVENING, THEN
DECREASING TO 7.0 DECREASING TO 4.5 DECREASING
TO 2.5 INCREASING TO 3.0 EARLY IN THE MORNING
DECREASING TO 2.5.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........83 87 87 88 89 87 86 85 89 92 96 97
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90 90
TEMP............40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 42
DEWPOINT........35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 41
RH..............82 82 85 85 89 89 89 89 92 89 93 96
HEAT INDEX (F)..33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 32 33 32 32
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 13 13 15 17 18 21 22 24 25
20 FT WIND GUST.18 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 31 33 36 36
SURFACE WND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
SURFACE WND SPD.12 12 12 13 13 15 17 18 21 22 24 25
SURFACE WND GST.18 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 31 33 36 36
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 29 31 32 33
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ADI.............21 18 18 19 19 21 23 25 26 28 29 30
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/100022 22 19 18 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 8
CEILING (KFT)...10 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 4.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5
FORECASTER...BRW
REQUESTED BY...AARON WHIDDON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2100589.0/BOX
.DELDT 01/15/21
.EMAIL AARON.WHIDDON@MASS.GOV
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