731
FXUS61 KBOX 022317
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
617 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF SNOW SOMETIME FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON AN
ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
AS WELL AS GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER THE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH VERY COLD NIGHT/S BUT MANY
LOCATIONS REACH OR BREAK FREEZING TUE AFTERNOON
- MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS AND DEEP ARCTIC AIR BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND, WITH GALE-STORM FORCE
WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH VERY COLD
NIGHT/S BUT MANY LOCATIONS REACH OR BREAK FREEZING TUE AFTERNOON
OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WHILE THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND
THAT WILL BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES...LITTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OR FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...WE MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE A
LARGE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS FROM THE URBAN CENTERS TO THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOWS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS. 925T GENERALLY
BETWEEN -6C/-7C ON TUE ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT. THEN A PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS AND DEEP ARCTIC AIR BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND, WITH GALE-STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS.
A BENIGN WEATHER WEEK IS FOLLOWED BY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST THING OF NOTE IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THESE FACTORS
WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK, MORE LIKELY ONLY ADDING UP TO A
COATING TO AN INCH OR SO. BEST SHOT OF THE HIGHER END WILL BE THE
EXTREME EASTERN MA COAST WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATES A 10-30% CHANCE OF SEEING
1".
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND/ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BLAST OF TRULY
ARCTIC AIR, GIVING US PERHAPS THE COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES OF THE
ALREADY COLD SEASON. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPS UP BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS AIRMASS OVERHEAD (850MB TEMPS APPROACHING -20C)
THIS COULD MAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS FEEL LIKE -10 TO -20F ACROSS MOST OF SNE SATURDAY MORNING
(CLOSER TO -30F IN THE BERKSHIRES). THIS IS DANGEROUS COLD, BUT
THANKFULLY IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
IS ON THE HORIZON AS EARLY AS THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FINALLY, THIS
COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE RISK OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATER NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE... NO CHANGES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE AFTERNOON BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCATIONS DECOUPLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTS BELOW
25 KNOTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LEFT OVER SWELL FROM YESTERDAY/S OCEAN
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL
STILL BE NEEDED INTO TONIGHT FOR OUR WATERS. NO MARINE HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 12 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
232-235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/BW
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...FRANK/BW
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