744
FXUS61 KBOX 031915
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
315 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGS A RETURN TO COLDER AIR LATER
SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
- MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY MON-WED EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MON INTO TUE. ODDS OF ANY
ROAD/TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
- MILDER TEMPS RETURN THU INTO FRI WITH HIGHS LIKELY REBOUNDING
WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT 60S WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGS A RETURN TO COLDER
AIR LATER SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH EXPECTED LOW
TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY APRIL. STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS OUR REGION, BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE
DRIZZLE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAINS OF RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA.
THINKING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
CLEARER SKIES SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST LIKELY DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THINKING THE
NATIONALBLEND GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING
RAINFALL CHANCES AS QUICKLY AS IT DID. TEMPERED THAT TIMING WITH
MORE OF A MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON
SUNDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, A MODEST
SOUTHWEST LLJ/PWAT PLUME ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT
THE LINGERING SHALLOW COOL INVERSION IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL, BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE LLJ/PWAT PLUME WILL ALSO RESULT IN BUT ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW DOWNPOURS
ON SUN. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, SO THE MAIN SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY ONLY LAST 2-4/3-5 HOURS IN A GIVEN
LOCATION. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL, SO WOULD NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IF EVEN THAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY & CHILLY MON-WED EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MON INTO TUE.
ODDS OF ANY ROAD/TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF
STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OR TWO OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MON INTO TUE. IN
FACT, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 500T MB TEMPS WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN -30C AND -35C! THIS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE THE RISK
FOR THOSE BRIEF INSTABILITY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BIT
OF GRAUPEL TOO. THAT BEING SAID, ODDS OF ANY ROAD/TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WITH
HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. IT WILL BE
AT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S!
KEY MESSAGE 4...MILDER TEMPS RETURN THU INTO FRI WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT 60S WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S IF NOT 60S BY THU AND FRI. THINKING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
IMPROVING TO VFR AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOCAL EAST
COAST SEABREEZES FOR MA WITH THE SUDDEN RISE IN TEMPERATURE AS
SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST, WITH IFR LIKELY TO LINGER TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE THERE.
GUSTY SW WINDS WITH SOME LLWS DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE
AN INVERSION FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR DIMINISHES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN W THEN NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST. SOME LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS SWING AROUND TO ENE SATURDAY. ENE
WINDS IN AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ONCE THE SUNSHINE DEVELOPED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS THE START OF THE EVENING PUSH.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT. SHRA, PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, THEN
RETURN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CAPE AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY AND SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE TURNING FROM EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-DAY, AND THEN START TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
FAR TO THE WEST APPROACHES. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS WILL START GUSTING AROUND 25KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NECESSARY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME ROUGH
SEAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
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