442
FXUS61 KBOX 011146
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
746 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. BACKDOOR FRONT RETREATS
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DROPS BACK SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLDER DAY THURSDAY THEN A MILDER BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. BACKDOOR
FRONT RETREATS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DROPS BACK SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS STALLED ITS PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND WAS LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM ORANGE, MA TO PROVIDENCE, RI AND THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST OF MA. E/NE WINDS IN COOL SECTOR HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 30S AND 40S,
WHILE TO THE WEST SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN 60S. SEVERE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NY HAVE SLOWLY WEAKENED AS THEY ENCOUNTERED A LESS
FAVORABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY DID SHOW SOME DECENT SIGNALS FOR WIND
DAMAGE OVER WESTERN MA WHICH PROMPTED EARLIER WARNINGS AND
RESULTED IN SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE.
AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INDUCES MORE OF A
S/SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A WARMUP ACROSS MOST OF REGION BY
SUNRISE DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND WE MAY
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL FORCE BACKDOOR FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THIS TIME ALL THE WAY
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND OFFSHORE LATER IN DAY. WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING AS ABRUPT OF A TEMPERATURE DROP THAT WE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE NOTICEABLE.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MOST OF
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO FRONT ACROSS CT, RI, AND SOUTHEAST
MA WHERE MODELS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THERE IS EVEN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY THERE BUT MOST LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLDER DAY THURSDAY THEN A MILDER BUT UNSETTLED
PATTERN PREVAILS OVER WEEKEND.
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HEADS TO NOVA SCOTIA AND MAINTAINS E/NE WINDS
ACROSS REGION. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR ALL, BUT
THERE ARE SOME PROSPECTS FOR DRYING OUT IN AFTERNOON AS WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY HOLD IN
30S MOST OF THE DAY WHICH COULD EVEN RESULT IN A LITTLE SLEET MIXING
IN AT TIMES NORTH OF I-90 (BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL).
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA, OUR FRONT ONCE AGAIN LIFTS
TO NORTH IN RESPONSE TO NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO 60S IF
NOT 70S AWAY FROM OCEAN INFLUENCE THANKS TO INCREASING S/SW FLOW.
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH WEEKEND AS WE BECOME SANDWICHED
BETWEEN GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF EAST COAST,
LEADING TO MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN ALSO FAVORS SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND
FINALLY KICKS FRONT OUT TO SEA.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR A LINE FROM ORE-OWD.
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR WITH SOME MVFR VISBYS STICKING
AROUND THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VFR TO WEST OF FRONT WITH S WINDS.
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH S/SW WINDS, THEN
BACKDOOR FRONT ONCE AGAIN DROPS S DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS
TIME THROUGH MORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH WIND SHIFT TO N/NE
AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR/IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR
SOUTH COAST LATER IN DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER OR NOT IFR CIGS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND IT'S POSSIBLE
OVC008 FOLLOWS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF POSSIBLE SHRA IN THE AREA OF THE TERMINAL.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS AND IT'S POSSIBLE OVC015 FOLLOWS WIND
SHIFT TO N/NE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. SHRA LIKELY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCAS REMAIN POSTED MAINLY ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS FOR INCREASING SW
WINDS TODAY AS BACKDOOR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN SETTLES OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THU WITH WIND
SHIFT TO NE BUT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.
NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...HRENCECIN/JWD
MARINE...JWD
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