844
FXUS61 KBOX 251119
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
719 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS FILL BACK IN THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, TRANSITIONS TO DRIER WEATHER IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS FILL BACK IN THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, TRANSITIONS TO DRIER WEATHER
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID TODAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE.
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL BRING A
BRIEF SURGE OF ESPECIALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER SOUTHEASTERN SNE AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHEN
EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING LEADING
TO ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE
OVERHEAD. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN UNDER
ANY BRIEF CONVECTION. QUICKLY, THOUGH, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST PULLING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS PWATS DROP QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GENERALLY 18-00Z. GIVEN SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS, AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY, SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A GOOD SUNSET TONIGHT. WHILE
MOST PARTS OF SNE WILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND NOON
(WEST) TO MID AFTERNOON (EAST) WE WILL HAVE A RESPITE FROM THE COLD
OF YESTERDAY AS WARM ADVECTION LEADS TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARMEST SPOTS
WILL BE THE CT VALLEY WHERE SKIES CLEAR SOONEST AND WEST FLOW
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED OVERALL MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY. THUS, HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE RELYING MORE
ON ENSEMBLES AND FOCUSING MORE ON THE TRENDS UNTIL GREATER CLARITY
DEVELOPS.
EXPECTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE SHOULD BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD FRONT FOR
THURSDAY, THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE NAEFS AND NATIONALBLEND THAT THE
LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COULD STILL TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY, WITH THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE, ANTICIPATING THIS TIMING PART OF THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.
RAINFALL-WISE, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC WINDOWS OF
TIME WHEN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS GREATEST. WE CAN'T SEEM TO GET
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALIGNED WITH LIFT. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT WEDNESDAY STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THOSE PERIODS AS A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CROSSING OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES
STARTED TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE, MEANING THAT SHOWER
COVERAGE COULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FOR THURSDAY,
THE COOLER CONDITIONS MEANS INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BUT THERE
IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED LIFT TO FOCUS IT. PERHAPS COLDER AIR ALOFT
COULD TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS, BUT THE TIMING OF THIS COLDER AIR IS
QUESTIONABLE. THESE ISSUES CONTINUE RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN, ANTICIPATING THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO UNDERGO CHANGES AS THIS WEEK
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIFR CONDITIONS WERE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG
WHICH WAS LOCALLY DENSE. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST
TO EAST TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LIGHT-
CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY BECOME WNW AT 5-10 KNOTS
AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER
NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...MANY AREAS NORTHWEST OF THAT REGION WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER...LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIGHT-CALM WINDS TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN AREAS
OF GROUND FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. SO A WIDE VARIETY IN CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
FROM VFR TO LOCALIZED IFR- LIFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR ONCE ANY LINGERING FOG PATCHES BURN OFF EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SW AT 7-13
KNOTS AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG. WE MAY ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ALONG PARTS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.
KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN, AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING, LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED
BY DRIER/IMPROVING WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST (LATER SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS). WIND SHIFT
FROM SSW IN THE MORNING, TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THEN NNW OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LIGHT WINDS BECOME S/SW 10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...BW
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