621
FXUS61 KBOX 070559
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
159 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING RAIN
ENDING WEST TO EAST, FOLLOWED BY DRIER, COOLER, AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH
LINGERING RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST, FOLLOWED BY DRIER, COOLER, AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WHILE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LIFTS EAST TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6-10 AM, ALTHOUGH NANTUCKET MAY SEE LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY OFFSHORE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. CAA USHERS IN A MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PWAT VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.3
INCHES. DESPITE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD CONFINE ANY
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY/MID-MAY.
WNW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE INCREASINGLY
CLEAR SKIES. EVEN SO, OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN URBAN LOCATIONS AND THE UPPER 30S ACROSS RURAL AREAS. PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN BERKSHIRES MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.3-0.4 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING EXACT TIMING,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. SATURDAY APPEARS RAW AND COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S. A PERIOD OF WETTING RAINFALL IS INCREASING, WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING GREAT THAN A 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A LOWER, BUT NON-NEGLIGIBLE,
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR MOTHER'S DAY (SUNDAY) AS SNE BRIEFLY RESIDES
WITHIN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. DRY WEATHER AND
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRIEF DRYING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TREND
BACK BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR CONDITIONS AND INTERMITTENT SHRA UNTIL 12Z FOR MUCH OF SNE, WILL
PERSIST AT CAPE COD AND ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z-17Z. OTHERWISE,
DRYING AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. W TO WNW WIND 8-12 KT, GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SCT TO BKN 070-100 CEILINGS. LIGHT W WNW WIND 5-10 KT.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SCT TO BKN 040-070 CEILINGS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SPOT SHOWER,
OTHERWISE A DRY DAY. WNW WIND 10-14 KT, GUSTING 20-25KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SHRA
LIKELY.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT S-SE OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. A
WIND SHIFT OCCURS, SSW TO THE WNW BY LATE MORNING. LOWER WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS TODAY, 10-15 KT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
WATERS, 4-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THOSE CONDITIONS. SEAS FALL BY THE EARLY TO
MID-AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SW. ON FRIDAY, A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5
FT, SUB-ADVISORY, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-
256.
DOOLEY
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