146
FXUS61 KBOX 130005
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN MIDWEEK WITH POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION MONDAY. WHILE NOT
AS HOT AS EXPECTED HEAT TUE/WED, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING DEWPOINTS, SURFACE HEATING, AND INCREASING LIFT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE HREF.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN MIDWEEK WITH POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A 599DAM MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. LREF SHOW 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
+22-23C, WHICH IS NEAR THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COASTS,
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S, THIS WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 105, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE HEAT
HEADLINES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. WE MAY ALSO APPROACH DAILY HEAT RECORDS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGHS OR EVEN MORNING LOWS WITH
VERY LITTLE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT AS INTENSE AS THE
PREVIOUS STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER, TEMPERATURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL STILL PRESENT SIGNIFICANT RISKS FOR THOSE WORKING OR DOING
RECREATION OUTDOORS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW WITH
EXCEPTION TO AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SEABREEZE SHOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE AND COOL 850 TEMPS TO +10-13C. THESE VALUES TRANSLATE TO
HIGHS IN THE MID LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. A SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MET TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OF SE MA INCLUDING BUZZARD'S BAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 8 FT.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HK/CB
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...HK
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