205  
FXUS61 KBOX 131418  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
918 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE LINGERING RAIN EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT  
WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER  
SYSTEM BRINGS A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY, STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST  
AND A WINTRY MIX INLAND. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
* RAIN ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS LINGER  
* HIGHS REACH 35-40 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE 40S RI/SE MA  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR  
NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN END TO THE LINGERING RAIN BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART. THERE STILL  
WERE POCKETS OF LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
DISTANT INTERIOR...BUT TEMPS 31-32 DEGREES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY  
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION. WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.  
 
HIGH TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS RI/SE  
MA. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE WINDS TURN  
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING. WE MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST  
WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH AS WELL TOWARDS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT HIGHS TO EVENTUALLY REACH  
35-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS  
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP AS WELL BY EARLY  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
* DRY BUT TURNING WINDY AND COLDER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...  
 
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CREATE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY  
LAYER GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AS A 45  
TO 55 KT WESTERLY LLJ MOVES OVER SNE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY  
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST, EXPANDING  
TO THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB, TAPPING INTO THAT LLJ  
AND MIXING DOWN GUSTS AS STRONG AS 50 MPH. THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE IN THESE GUSTS MATERIALIZING IS OVER WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL MA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. COLD NW WINDS  
LEAD TO LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE  
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THANKS TO THE WIND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW TO START  
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO ICE AND RAIN BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.  
 
* EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN. AT LEAST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (1-3")  
FOR NORTHERN CT AND MUCH OF MA.  
 
* WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER TOWARD SUNRISE. THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A  
CHILLIER NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS WITH  
SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ACROSS  
THE MA INTERIOR.  
 
WEEKEND:  
 
THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH. ENSEMBLE MEANS TRACK A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS THE  
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE  
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 300% OF NORMAL PAIRED WITH SYNOPTIC  
ASCENT. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO PIN DOWN THE TRACK  
OF THE STORM, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.  
 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN  
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP PRIME THE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOWFALL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH  
POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS MID-LEVEL WARM  
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE MAIN COMPLICATION  
WILL BE PRECIP-TYPE. AS WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT, IT  
WILL SLOWLY WARM THE VERTICAL COLUMN. THIS WILL BRING US THE CLASSIC  
CHANGE-OVER TO A WINTRY MIX. AS A RESULT OF TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES  
AMONG GUIDANCE, THE TIMING OF THE WARM AIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHICH  
WILL FACTOR INTO SNOW AMOUNTS.  
 
DESPITE DISPARITIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR  
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (1-3") FOR NORTHERN CT AND MOST OF MA. THERE ARE  
SOLUTIONS THAT FAVOR POTENT PROBABILITY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR  
> 6" THAT HAVE BEEN REFLECTED IN THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES  
RANGING FROM 30-60% NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER  
PROBS CONFINED TO THE NORTH BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR. WHAT WE CAN TAKE FROM THIS RIGHT NOW IS THAT AREAS  
NORTH OF THE MA PIKE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY  
LEVEL AMOUNTS WHILE OTHERS IT IS LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING  
OF THE WARM AIR AND TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP. SO FOR NOW, 1-5"  
IS A REALISTIC RANGE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY, WARM AIR WILL BE  
IN FULL FORCE CHANGING THINGS TO RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUCH AS THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS  
MAY LAG IN THE CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHALLOW  
COOL AIR SLOWER TO ERODE OUT.  
 
A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND IT PUSHES THROUGH ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WEST  
WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE EXITING  
SYSTEM. THIS MAY SUPPORT LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK:  
 
THE ECMWF EFI HIGHLIGHTS ANOTHER PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WINDS  
FOR MONDAY. WITH STRONG CAA ADVECTION AND A MODERATE LLJ OVERHEAD,  
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED. THIS WILL  
SUPPORT A WINDY DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY/NEAR ADVISORY WINDS  
FOR THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS (45 MPH+). OTHERWISE LOOKING  
AT GUSTS 25-40 MPH ACROSS OTHER SPOTS.  
 
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOW A WELL BELOW NORMAL  
AIRMASS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY  
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BECOMING MORE ZONAL  
WHICH SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
12Z TAF UPDATE...  
 
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS IN ICE/RAIN. ALL TERMINALS EVENTUALLY CHANGE  
TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME  
LIGHT ICING PERSISTING IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UNTIL LUNCH TIME  
(NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS/BERKSHIRES). BULK OF THE STEADY  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
E WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW LATE AFTERNOON  
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS TOWARDS THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT MUCH  
WEAKER ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WE DO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THOUGH BY EARLY EVENING. COULD  
SEE A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING  
PERIOD MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLAND, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT  
BOS/PVD.  
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE  
 
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS EARLY EVENING WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS BY 03Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS AND  
LOCALIZED UP TO 40 KTS FOR ORH AND FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE  
BERKSHIRES.  
 
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. THE LIGHT FREEZING  
RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IN THE 12Z TO 14Z TIME RANGE.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.  
 
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.  
SN, RA, PL, FZRA.  
 
SUNDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. RA, FZRA.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. RA LIKELY, CHANCE SN.  
 
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO  
40 KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
AREAS OF RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBYS FOR MARINERS AT TIMES THIS  
MORNING AS A LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY S THEN SW AND W WINDS THROUGH THE  
DAY, GUSTING TO 30 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.  
OVERNIGHT WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FURTHER WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS  
40 KTS AND SEAS 8-10 FT. FRIDAY WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED  
BY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
APPROACHES.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.  
 
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING  
5 FT. RAIN, SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.  
 
SUNDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO  
14 FT. RAIN. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS  
UP TO 14 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 13 FT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
CTZ002>004.  
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
MAZ002>006-008>012-026.  
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR  
MAZ002>004-008>012-026.  
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
RIZ001.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ230.  
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ231-251.  
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ232>235-237-255-256.  
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ236.  
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ250-254.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BW/MENSCH  
NEAR TERM...FRANK  
SHORT TERM...BW  
LONG TERM...MENSCH  
AVIATION...BW/MENSCH  
MARINE...BW/MENSCH  
 
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