715
FXUS61 KBOX 291139
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
739 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MILD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL TRACKING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS LATE
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. THE LATEST NBM HAS TRENDED
SOMEWHAT WARMER, BUT STILL SHOWS HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
- RISK FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- A STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PEAKS MIDWEEK
WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY WITH OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- TURNING ABRUPTLY COLDER FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT. CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS ELEVATED AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE A WARMING TREND
WITH DRY WEATHER THAT LASTS THROUGH MONDAY.
DESPITE THE INCREASING SW WINDS TODAY, HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS QUICK TO RESPOND. THROW IN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
RECENT RAINFALL, AND THAT COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LATER TODAY. IN CONSULTATION WITH THE VARIOUS STATE
FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES, WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RISK FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE, BUT NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THIS COULD PERMIT A FRONT TO POSSIBLY MOVE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAINFALL.
EVEN THEN, IT WOULD BE JUST A CHANCE. MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PEAKS MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS PEAKS ON WED WITH PRE-FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KTS. THE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ADVECTS MUCH WARMER AIR WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING TO +15 TO +20C.
POTENTIAL CAP ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND, WHICH OPENS THE DOOR FOR
QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL INSOLATION WE CAN REALIZE. EVEN
STILL, WITH 925 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +14 TO +16C AND 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE +10 TO +12C RANGE, EVEN SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD
OFFER HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 60S, WITH A CONDITIONAL SHOT AT 70S
IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY PERSISTENT BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS.
WILL SEE INCREASING POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON AND INTO WED EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 300-500 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AND MOIST PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. FRONT THEN MOVES MORE SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW SLOWLY THIS
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS RECENT ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWING A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE SLOWING FRONTAL ZONE
INTO EARLY THURS, WHICH WOULD MEAN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROUGHLY THIRD OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 4...TURNING ABRUPTLY COLDER FOR THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
ELEVATED AREAS OF THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
COLD FRONT MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AS STRONG >1040 MB
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS SE CANADA. SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR
MOVES IN ON NE ALLOWING FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM AROUND
+14-16C FROM WED AFTERNOON TO A CHILLY 0 TO -2C BY THURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTHERN MA CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AS THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY CHANGES RUN TO RUN. THE CLOSER
THE HIGH CENTER GENERALLY THE COLDER IT WILL BE. AS A REFERENCE,
00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER N WITH THE HIGH AND HAS
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THINK THE LATEST NBM IS REASONABLE AS IT
KEEPS HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AT BEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MA AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.
STILL SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL
WAVE LATE WEEK. GFS/GEFS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SOMEWHAT SINCE THE LAST RUN AND
BRINGS THE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF/EPS IS STILL
CLOSER TO FRIDAY. THAT'LL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP AT ONSET IN AT LEAST INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PENDING SURFACE TEMPS. SO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIP AGAIN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF MARCH, BUT
AT THIS DAY-6/DAY-7 TIMEFRAME IT'S UNCLEAR IF IT ENDS UP BEING
THURS OR FRI.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS 9-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z.
GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING AROUND 00Z. SSW/SW
WINDS 5-15 KT TONIGHT. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. GUSTS RE-
DEVELOP 12-14Z MONDAY AROUND 20 KTS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS BY
THE AFTERNOON. FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLAND
TERMINALS IN AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST. AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST RISK TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MA BORDER AND TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES. BREEZY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA, ISOLATED
TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA LIKELY, SN LIKELY.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA, CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXTENDED INTO
MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE BRIEF LULLS IN GUSTS BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE HEADLINING SIMPLE, RATHER THAN
TRYING TO PINPOINT THOSE LULLS EXACTLY.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
BEYOND MONDAY JUST YET. HOWEVER, EXPECTING ANOTHER SURGE IN SW
WINDS TUESDAY WHICH MAY NEED FURTHER ADVISORIES.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 14 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN LIKELY, CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BELK/MENSCH/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page