638
FXUS61 KBOX 270747
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
247 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO GROW FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WORST-CASE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE 2-4 INCHES IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN, WITH THE MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO AN INCH.
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD FEATURE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE MILD TODAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY, THEN
ARCTIC OUTBREAK BRINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WORK WEEK
- UNSETTLED AND WARMER WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE MILD TODAY AND EVEN WARMER SATURDAY.
WEAK IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY, BUT
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AGAIN TODAY. 850MB TEMPS RISE A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY FROM -6C TO -
3C, WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN
TODAY, EVEN AFTER THE COLD START. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW TEENS AGAIN, STAYING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WAA
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVECT IN SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE WARM WEATHER
DOESNT LAST LONG AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
LACKS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND FORCING, BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY, THEN ARCTIC
OUTBREAK BRINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK
WEEK
THE SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND QPF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CARRY, RANGING FROM ONLY A
TRACE TO A QUARTER INCH. WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SUNDAY WILL FALL AS
SNOW, WITH MOST LIKELY SNOW TOTALS OF A COATING TO AN INCH, AND
WORST-CASE TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES IF THE HIGHER QPF IS REALIZED.
HIGHER-END SNOW TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE MARGINAL CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-30S
EARLY IN THE DAY, THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, POSSIBLY NEAR ZERO
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN ANGLE UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. WIND REALLY WONT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR DURING THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL INDEX FROM FALLING
WELL BELOW ZERO, AS WE SAW IN JANUARY'S ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED AND WARMER WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK STILL LOOKS MURKY FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY, ANY WAA WILL LEAD TO A MESSY MIXED PRECIPITATION SETUP
WITH ANYTHING FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN MAY CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT NW-LY WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BACK TO SW-LIES.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BR OVER THE CT VALLEY, RI,
AND INTO NE MA. LIGHT SW WINDS, BECOMING CALM IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT SW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SN,
SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SEAS LINGERING ABOVE 5
FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF SNOW, SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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