704
FXUS61 KBOX 061150
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
750 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXITS
TOMORROW MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- DRYING TREND SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
- THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS,
ONE SATURDAY AND THE OTHER TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXITS TOMORROW MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXITING THE
REGION'S COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE NOT AS WINDY AS THE
LAST TWO DAYS, EXPECTING A PERIOD OF GUSTY SW WIND, 20-30 MPH, DUE
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING FRONT AND SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST. SW FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER PWATS, VALUES AROUND 1.3",
WHICH IS 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN ARRIVES TO
WESTERN MA AND NORTHWEST CT BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM, REACHING EASTERN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 4-7 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE NOTICEABLY
COOLER, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS BETWEEN 53-
57F, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT OF A FEW HUNDRED UNITS OF CAPE AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY ARE BETWEEN 0.1-0.3" WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5" WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE TOMORROW MORNING WITH SHOWERS LINGER FOR AREAS SE OF I-95.
DO THINK SHOWERS END BEFORE 8 AM, BUT COULD PERSIST FOR CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS LATE AS 10 AM TO NOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRYING TREND SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON DOES FEATURE DRYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MAY. CAA DOES ADVECT A SEASONABLE AIRMASS AND LOW PWATS, LESS THAN
0.3" BY THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER AND SEASONABLE HIGHS BETWEEN THE LOWER AND MID-60S. A
COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS, A COOL NIGHT, URBAN AREAS HAVE A
NIGHTLY LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHILE RURAL AREAS FALL AS LOW AS
THE UPPER 30S. EASTERN BERKSHIRES COULD DIP AS LOW AS 33-36F. DO
WARM UP, THOUGH A TAD COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
FRIDAY UNDER A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A COUPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS, ONE SATURDAY AND THE OTHER TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING/MONDAY.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST. RAW TYPE OF DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S, WETTING
RAIN OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ENSEMBLES HAVE THE
PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES, THOUGH
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, MOTHER'S DAY, HAS IMPROVED, A BIT OF A LULL
IN THE ACTION. THE SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN-MAKER,
DUE TO POTENTIAL PHASING BETWEEN A SOUTHERN-STREAM 500MB VORT MAX
RIPPLING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH NORTHERN STREAM BROADER
TROUGHING NORTH OF THE GT LAKES REGION. TIMING AND DETAILS REGARDING
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE STILL HAZY BUT THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE
CENTERED AT ABSOLUTE EARLIEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE
PROBABLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
POCKETS OF LOW SCT-BKN DECKS THIS AM ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LOWERING
CEILIGNS TO MORE CONSISTENT MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS BY THE EVENING
WITH POCKETS OF LIFR FOR CAPE/ISLANDS AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH
COAST. SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WIND WNW 8-12 KT, LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TONIGHT. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-
237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY
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