178  
FXUS61 KBOX 020549  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
1249 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR SOUTH AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING  
DEVELOPS FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD  
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY, THEN DRY AND  
COOLER WEATHER RETURNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. DRY AND  
SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. TRENDING  
DRIER AND COLDER LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
10 PM UPDATE...  
 
* WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE COLD  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR  
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.  
MANY LOW-LYING LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.  
THIS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES  
WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS BY  
DAYBREAK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH TYPICALLY  
COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 20. EVEN THE URBAN  
HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER TO BUILD  
IN FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TO  
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, WHICH WILL  
ADVECT WARMER, MORE HUMID AIR AT 925/850MB BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE  
WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THESE HEIGHTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH  
UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A DELAYED WARM UP AT THE SURFACE, BUT WE  
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE HIGHS TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY TOMORROW THAN THEY WERE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A PLEASANT  
AFTERNOON FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT RAINMAKER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO  
WARM OVERNIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST AFTER SUNSET, AS  
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY 12Z. AT THIS  
TIME, ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER  
12Z, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR  
WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT  
IS MORE LIKELY THAT PRECIP WOULD TREND EARLIER THAN LATER THAN  
THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE  
OVER THE NEXT DAY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.  
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* WINDY AND MILD SATURDAY (U50S-L60S), WITH SHOWERS  
* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, COOLER SUNDAY  
* MILD WITH RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME TUE/WED  
* TRENDING DRIER & POSSIBLY SUSTAINED COLD BEGINNING NEXT THU  
 
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...  
 
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, VORTEX SETS UP IN NORTH-CENTRAL  
CANADA JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS  
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN THESE  
FEATURES, A FAST/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO  
NEW ENGLAND. THUS, NO REAL TEMPERATURE EXTREMES THIS PERIOD, WITH A  
FEW MILD DAYS AHEAD OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVES SAT, AND AGAIN TUE/WED,  
FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SUNDAY/MONDAY. THESE SHORT WAVES  
DO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING  
UP TO 200% OF NORMAL PWAT. HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL  
PRECLUDE ANY BIG QPF EVENTS. THEN LATE NEXT WEEK, -NAO DEVELOPS WITH  
LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AROUND GREENLAND. THIS MAY SET THE  
STAGE (PER ENSEMBLES) FOR SUSTAINED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LATE  
NEXT WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY DEC, HIGHS 43-48, LOWS 28-34.  
 
SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED  
YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT. THUS, NOT QUITE AS WINDY AND LESS QPF.  
ALTHOUGH, WIND DIRECTION IS SW, PROMOTING MORE BLYR MIXING. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE, WITH 60-65 KT AT  
925 MB. THEREFORE, WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS SATURDAY  
APPROACHES. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS RI INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST  
MA. AS FOR RAINFALL, ENSEMBLES ONLY SUPPORTING 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES  
GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM. IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR  
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, LOW  
TO MID 50S WESTERN MA. THESE WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO PROMOTE GUSTY SW  
WINDS. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE, SO DRY SLOT RACES ACROSS  
THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
SUNDAY...DRY AND COOLER, BUT CORE OF CAA TRACKS NORTH OF OUR REGION.  
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND QUITE PLEASANT FOR DEC STANDARDS, GIVEN LIGHT  
WINDS AND LOTS SUNSHINE.  
 
NEXT WEEK...DRY AND NOT AS COOL MONDAY, WITH HIGHS 45-50. WARMING  
TREND TUE/WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC SHORT  
WAVE. HOWEVER, THE WAA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY  
APPRECIABLE QPF, WITH ENSEMBLES OFFERING LOW PROBS OF UP TO 1 INCH.  
THEN LIKELY A DRYING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH POSSIBLY SUSTAINED  
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMP REGIME, PENDING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING (-NAO)  
PER BOTH ECENS & GEFS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
06Z TAF UPDATE...  
 
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW AT 5-10 KNOTS.  
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
MAINLY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. S WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BUT EXPECT  
LLWS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER 6Z AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS.  
 
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY LATER  
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL  
OCCUR IN A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD  
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE  
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST OF THOSE  
WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH A FEW GUSTS UP  
TO 40 KNOTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A  
CONCERN.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY  
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.  
 
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.  
 
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA  
LIKELY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
720 PM UPDATE...  
 
* GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES  
OVERNIGHT  
 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS/SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WE WILL BE  
ABLE TO REPLACE GALES WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES THIS EVENING. BY  
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS.  
 
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
SATURDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO  
10 FT. RAIN.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT. RAIN LIKELY.  
 
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN LIKELY.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
ANZ250-254>256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/KS  
NEAR TERM...FRANK  
SHORT TERM...KS  
LONG TERM...NOCERA  
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA  
MARINE...NOCERA/KS  
 
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