985
FXUS61 KBOX 010516
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
116 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRYING
OUT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND. RISK FOR SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
- BECOMING WARMER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE DRYING OUT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
PASSES FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW AND DECREASING PWATS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AS
UPPER LOW RESIDES TO THE NORTH WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 60S, EXCEPT COOLER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER THIS WEEKEND. RISK FOR SHOWERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS WEEKEND REVOLVES AROUND HOW CLOSELY A
LOW PRESSURE WILL GET TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PROJECTED MID
LEVEL FLOW HAS A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH THE
CONSENSUS STORM TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THIS FLOW COULD
FORCE A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO OUR REGION, WITH A GREAT RISK FOR
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECTING A LOW TRACK ABOUT 125 MILES SE OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AT THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY
NIGHT AT PRESENT. LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT SLIGHTLY
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MA AND RI. NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH RAINFALL WHEN ALL IS DONE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
AMOUNTS 0.10 INCH OR LESS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495, WITH PERHAPS
0.50-0.75 INCH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WILL BE MONITORING
THE ACTUAL APPROACH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BECOMING WARMER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND THE 70S FOR TUESDAY.
THINKING IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY MONDAY, BUT THEN A COLD
FRONT SHOULD PASS BY SOMETIME TUESDAY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COUPLE OF FRONTS ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
PATCHES OF MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW ELEVATION FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR
DEVELOPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS
THE WHEN CONDITIONS FULLY IMPROVE TO VFR
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING NW, INTO FRI THEN BECOMING SW
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FT OVER OUTER WATERS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/KJC
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...KJC
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