920  
FXUS61 KBOX 040246  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
946 PM EST WED MAR 3 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF BLUSTERY  
AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD ABOVE  
NORMAL, EARLY SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES THEN TAKES HOLD OF OUR  
REGION'S WEATHER INTO A GOOD PART OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. DRY  
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLOUDS ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF RI AND CT AT  
10 PM. THESE ARE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL PASS OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK  
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. EXPECT  
THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES  
PAST, THEN BREAK UP TOWARD MORNING.  
 
MAIN EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. VALUES UNDER THE  
CLOUDS ARE 3-5F LESS COLD THAN FORECAST, WHILE VALUES IN THE  
CLEAR AREA IN SRN RI ARE UP TO 10F COLDER THAN FORECAST. EVEN  
WITH EXPECTED CLEARING LATE, THE LENGTHY PERIOD OF THE CLOUD  
BLANKET MAY DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLING, SO THE FORECAST  
MIN TEMPS THERE ARE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CLEARING IN  
SOUTHERN RI SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS NEAR DEW POINT, GENERALLY IN THE  
MID 20S. THESE ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE. THE REMAINDER OF THE  
FORECAST STAYS AS IS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
* BLUSTERY AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY  
* VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE THU NIGHT  
 
THURSDAY...  
 
BLUSTERY/CHILLIER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION  
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE  
WIND/COLD WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON  
TUESDAY; IT WILL BE A CHANGE FROM TODAY. SUNNY SKIES AND STEEP  
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT MIXING IN THE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF  
25 TO 35 MPH DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN; TO THE UPPER  
30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL FEEL COLDER  
THOUGH WITH THE WIND.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, MOISTURE IS LACKING SO WILL  
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL  
DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF RATHER COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH.  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND IT WILL  
REMAIN QUITE BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO  
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN A BIT BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGH TERRAIN  
BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  
 
* PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, STARTING MONDAY  
BUT ESPECIALLY TUES AND WED. 50S TO EVEN NEAR 60 POSSIBLE BY WED  
AWAY FROM CAPE COD.  
 
* DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:  
 
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASSOCIATED WITH  
A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  
 
THOUGH THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER, IT WILL FEATURE A PERIOD  
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH USHERS IN COLDER TEMPS.  
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST IN THE STRETCH WITH THE COLDEST LOW-  
LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE REGION (850MB TEMPS -12 TO -15C), AND NW WINDS  
WILL ALLOW FOR MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DAYTIME WIND CHILLS. STILL SOME  
MODEST BREEZES INTO SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY  
EACH DAY.  
 
HIGHS FRI IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER  
ON SAT. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH  
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK:  
 
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE  
TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUES INTO POTENTIALLY A  
GOOD PART OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. BY MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
BE WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AWAY FROM CAPE COD. GIVEN THE LONG  
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THAT MAY BIAS TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH SOILS  
DRYING, A FEW 60S COULD BE IN REACH BY WED AS WELL.  
 
LARGE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHIFTS  
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, SW BREEZES AND  
STEADILY WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO THE REGION. FOR MONDAY, HIGHS  
SHOULD TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW-  
MID 40S. BY TUES AND WED, WARMUP BEGINS WITH HIGHS TUES IN THE MID  
40S TO MID 50S. BY WED MOST ARE IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S ACROSS  
CAPE COD WITH THE COOLER WATER TEMPS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT  
IS POTENTIAL FOR SEA-BREEZES BUT AT THIS TIME RANGE IT'S TOUGH TO  
DEPICT THAT MESOSCALE DETAIL.  
 
WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION. THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER  
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDWEEK, WHEREAS THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO  
DIFFER ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
THAT MAY BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BUT IT'S FAR FROM A SURE  
THING AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS.  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR. SCT-OVC CEILINGS WITH BASES 050-060 SHOULD LINGER INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT, LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN RI. CLEARING TREND  
LATE AT NIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT, BECOMING 5-8 KT LATE.  
 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NW WIND  
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON AND  
PERSISTING INTO THU NIGHT.  
 
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR.  
 
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.  
 
SUNDAY: VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WILL TURN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ON THE WATERS  
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.  
 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD  
ADVECTION WILL YIELD GOOD MIXING OVER THE WATERS, WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS THU AND THU NIGHT.  
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS, BUT WE  
DID GO WITH GALE WATCHES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WHEN THE  
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING  
SPRAY IS ALSO ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.  
 
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS  
APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ230>237.  
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR  
ANZ250-251-254.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-  
254.  
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR  
ANZ255-256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-  
256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/LOCONTO  
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/LOCONTO  
SHORT TERM...FRANK  
LONG TERM...LOCONTO  
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/LOCONTO  
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/LOCONTO  
 
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