331
FXUS61 KBOX 261746
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
146 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH HALLOWEEN, WITH A POTENTIAL TRANSITION
TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER IN EARLY NOVEMBER. MILD TEMPERATURES
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, LIKELY LASTING THROUGH HALLOWEEN, WITH A POTENTIAL
TRANSITION TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER IN EARLY NOVEMBER. MILD
TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEARLY PICTURE-PERFECT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN, THE BROKEN RECORD IS
PLAYING TRACK ONE, TITLED "HIGH PRESSURE." AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH SOME DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT ON THE HORIZON. IN
FACT, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES PAINT A RATHER PARCHED PICTURE FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND, WITH CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION (0.01 INCHES OR GREATER) GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
PERCENT THROUGH ALL HALLOWS' EVE!
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AROUND 1030 MB,
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN, ALTHOUGH ITS
CENTER HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL PROMOTE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS. TWO COLD
FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK, ALBEIT MOISTURE-
STARVED COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THESE FRONTS
TO LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND COOLER AIR MASSES. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY
ARRIVE SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C TODAY,
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FIRST MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT, TUESDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES +1C TO +4C. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LEADS TO A STEADY
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY MILD CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO POTENTIALLY
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY! DESI PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS REACHING 70F OR
GREATER FRIDAY HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT YESTERDAY TO GENERALLY 60 TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER TODAY, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
THE SECOND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK BY AROUND 10
DEGREES. THIS SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A FROSTY WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND CLOSER
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN A
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, COULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, URBAN
AREAS SUCH AS BOSTON WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, WITH LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. CONFIDENCE IN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING REMAINS MODERATE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
EFFECTIVELY WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. BE SURE TO PROTECT THOSE MUMS AND HALLOWEEN PUMPKINS!
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. W TO WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 6-12 KTS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 00-04Z. NO RAIN
EXPECTED; HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW/NNW
WITH GUSTS 18-25 KTS. HIGHEST GUSTS FOR CAPE AND ISLANDS. SCT TO
BKN CLOUD DECKS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT LIKELY TO BE MID-LEVEL
(050-100).
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTS SUBSIDE BY 12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS WHILE CAPE/ISLAND
TERMINALS WILL SEE LINGERING GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS N/NNE AT 7-14 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE N
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO
INCREASE TO 25 KT OR GREATER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS ALSO BRIEFLY BUILD TO 3
TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
232-250-251-254-255.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...BW/MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY
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