214
FXUS61 KBOX 232334
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
734 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NANTUCKET ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM RISK INTO MID EVENING
WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.
- DRIER WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OUTSIDE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM RISK
INTO MID EVENING WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
ALONG WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAS EXITED THE EASTERN MA
COAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WAS ALLOWING THE LOWER CLOUDS
TO BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WE WILL SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WELL INTO THE 70S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AS SOME PEEKS OF SUN TRY
TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WITH ML CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EARLIER SHORTWAVE
COUPLED WITH THE MAIN FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST WILL LIMIT THE
ADDITIONAL RISK. NONETHELESS...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID- EVENING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, WET
GROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOO.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE URBAN
HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS USHERS IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEK. AS SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM THE DREARY WEEKEND, DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY... INTO THE UPPER 50S AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
WE'VE BEEN SEEING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, PROLONGING THE CLEAR SKIES, DRIER WEATHER, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND FEEL LESS HUMID THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MEANDERS EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
ONSET OF THE SHOWERS AS THERE'S LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ON THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH CANADA; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS TICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN A
LATER SHOW OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED T-STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO MID EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTICULARLY AREAS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
MOSTLY MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, WET GROUND
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. SOME OF THAT FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AREAS LIKE KBOS END UP GOING VFR. SO A WIDE
VARIETY OF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS BECOME
CALM/LIGHT SW TONIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY LEFTOVER GROUND FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE MON.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SW WINDS OF 7-13 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON NIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED PATCHES
OF GROUND FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THOSE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
WINDS BECOME CALM/LIGHT SW MON NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE SW WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOTS
LATE MONDAY RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHOP FOR RECREATIONAL BOATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...FRANK/MCMINN
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