421
FXUS61 KBOX 100013
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
713 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
MA.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH LESS WIND.
- A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
- UPCOMING PERIOD OF DRY, SUNNY DAYS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH LESS WIND.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS, COMBINED WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS REGIONWIDE. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS, ALONG WITH
THE URBAN AREAS WHERE MINS WILL SETTLE IN THE TEENS. NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS, NONETHELESS, COLDER THAN NORMAL. ALSO, NOT
AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL FACTOR GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM
TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NBM AND MOS DATASETS. WE DIDN'T WANT
TO FOLLOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE, AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT BY PRECLUDE THE COLDEST TEMP FROM
VERIFYING. NEVERTHELESS, A CHILLY/COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
FAIRLY POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH. FIRST BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA 4PM-7PM WEST TO EAST. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. THE
STEADIER/ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MORE DYNAMICAL DRIVEN AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE SNOW, SUPPORTED BY
10-15 UBAR/S OF LIFT IN THE DGZ. THIS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
INDUCES A WEAK SECONDARY LOW THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER OR NEAR SE MA.
SNOW MAY END AS PERIOD OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, IN
RESPONSE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL WAA. ELSEWHERE, SNOW MAY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN ALL THE PARAMETERS ABOVE, EXPECTING A COATING UP
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA, POSSIBLE
FOLLOWED BY A TRACE OF ICE BEFORE ENDING. FOR NORTHERN MA, 1-3"
IS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ IN NORTHEAST MA,
FOLLOWED BY A TRACE OF ICE BEFORE ENDING. IF 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS
STRONGER/MORE QPF, THE EVENING/NIGHT SHIFT MAY ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES. STAY TUNED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UPCOMING PERIOD OF DRY, SUNNY DAYS WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS RETURN TO
PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THURSDAY.
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE, WE'LL SEE
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAKE
IT BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THOUGH NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THANKFULLY THOUGH, WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW
AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BREEZY WINDS DIMINISH BY 03Z. OTHERWISE NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ON TIMING OF -SN AND DROP TO
MVFR.
VFR AND DRY TO START. VFR CLOUD BASES AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST (19-20Z ARRIVAL
IN WESTERN MA AND 23-00Z ARRIVAL AT BOS). CEILINGS SHOULD DROP
TO MVFR AROUND OR LITTLE AFTER 00Z FOR ORH, BED, BOS. LIGHT NW
WINDS IN THE MORNING TREND TOWARD THE SW AFTER 15Z.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR IN SNOW, MODERATE AT TIMES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MA,
INCLUDING KBOS. 1-3" SNOW ACCUMS LIKELY, ISOLATED 4+ NORTHEAST
MA. STEADIEST SNOW ROUGHLY 00Z-05Z. SNOW MAY END AS RAIN ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A PERIOD PERIOD OF -FZDZ
ELSEWHERE. LOW PROB OF LLWS 00Z WED - 06Z WED.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
-SN ARRIVES MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 23-00Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
ON HOW QUICKLY VFR CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF -SN,
BUT SHOULD DROP BY 01Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 02-06Z. THIS WOULD BRING
BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES (1/2 TO 1SM) AND IFR/NEAR-LIFR
CEILINGS. SNOW MOVES OUT BY 10Z.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, ALONG WITH
FREEZING SPRAY ENDING.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT WEST WIND IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON,
10-15 KT. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY LIMIT VSBY LATE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SSW WINDS 10-15 KT TUE EVENING, BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW MAY LOWER VSBY TO 1 MILE OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS, 1-3 MILES ELSEWHERE, POSSIBLY ENDING AS RAIN SOUTHERN
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
232-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN/NOCERA
AVIATION...MCMINN/MENSCH/NOCERA
MARINE...MCMINN/NOCERA
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