391
FXUS61 KBOX 280754
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
254 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TOTAL
ACCUMULATION HAS DECREASED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN LATE TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TODAY, THEN TURNING VERY COLD BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT
SUNDAY
- LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN MID NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD TODAY, THEN TURNING VERY COLD BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT
SUNDAY
A WARM FRONT BRINGS MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM -2C TO +2C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW 50S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-20MPH. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SKIES MORE CLOUDY TODAY, WITH MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WITH
THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY; HOWEVER, THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR MARCH STANDARDS, ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-20S. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LITTLE TO NO WIND IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, LIMITING
THE WIND CHILL FACTOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW; HOWEVER,
AN UNUSUALLY WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. DETERMINISTIC QPF RANGES FROM A HUNDREDTH IN THE EURO
TO UP TO FOUR TENTHS IN THE HRRR. ENSEMBLES SHOW SIMILAR SPREAD,
WITH THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.25. THE
FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AS GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. FORCING ALSO SEEMS TO BE LIMITED TO THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF, WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE STAYING IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, 850 MB FGEN MAY MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED, WITH A WIDESPREAD TRACE TO 1 INCH EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF 2-
4 INCHES. THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE
THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS.
SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY, STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONGER FORCING, HOURLY SNOW RATES WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER A HALF INCH
PER HOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3... MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN MID NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON TUESDAY,
AND POSSIBLY EVEN BACK INTO THE MID-40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG-RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ZONAL AND ACTIVE
PATTERNS STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AS A LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WARM FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GIVEN THE COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS LIKELY TO START AS SNOW, THEN SWITCH TO A WINTRY MIX, AND
EVENTUALLY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE
ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT SW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR POSSIBLE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT MORE NW-LY.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASES THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. POSSIBLY UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. SW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TODAY VEER NW-LY LATE TONIGHT.
POSSIBLE BR DEVELOPS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR MVFR VISBYS IN BR EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CEILINGS AT THAT SAME
TIME.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA, CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. RA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS SHIFT MORE N SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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