237
FXUS61 KBOX 080638
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
238 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCHES HOISTED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR BUZZARDS BAY, CAPE COD BAY, AND NANTUCKET SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT TODAY AND WED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS...ALBEIT A BIT MORE HUMID WED.
- BREEZY, WARM AND HUMID WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH BRIEF SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME WILL BE DRY.
- MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY FRI INTO SAT WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. TURNING A BIT MORE HUMID/WARMER SUN INTO MON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT TODAY AND WED. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS...ALBEIT A BIT MORE HUMID
WED.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY OF
WEATHER TODAY. A MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS TODAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOO. WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SPOT SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...AREAL
COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE SO LIMITED IT IS NOT WORTH
INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TOO.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER
60S WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ALONG WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WED. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...BUT IT WILL BE A BIT
MORE HUMID AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BRINGS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE ALSO DO EXPECT A BIT OF A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY, WARM, AND HUMID WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH
BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THIS TIME WILL BE DRY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ OF 45-50+ KNOTS AT 950
MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER CAPE WHERE THEY ARE FAVORED BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND ONLY DEEPENS IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THE
BETTER DYNAMICS/FORCING IS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A BRIEF ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND THE MAJORITY OF WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. IT WILL BE A HUMID THOUGH AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE WED NIGHT.
HIGHS ON THU WILL BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 80S BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S AND IT WILL
BE HUMID.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY FRI INTO SAT
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. TURNING A BIT MORE HUMID/WARMER SUN
INTO MON.
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FRI INTO SAT
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE 40S
TO THE LOWER 50S FRI NIGHT/SAT AM...WHICH MAY END UP BEING THE
COOLEST NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS SINCE LATE LAST SPRING.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY SUN AND
MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF A BIT MORE
HUMID/WARMER AIRMASS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. NW WINDS
5-10 KNOTS EXCEPT SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CALM/LIGHT E WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SW WINDS. WE
EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
WED AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LLJ
DOWN TO 950 MB. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HOISTED GALE WATCHES FOR
BUZZARDS AND CAPE COD BAYS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND...WHICH
TEND TO BLOW THE HARDEST IN THESE SETUPS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO EXPAND THESE GALE WATCHES. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL NEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS OVER THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234.
DISCUSSION...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
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