084
FXUS61 KBOX 131725
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
125 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMERLIKE WARMTH TUE AND WED AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
- BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THU-SAT, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN MA, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN EXACTLY WHERE IT ENDS UP.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUMMERLIKE WARMTH TUE AND WED AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SUMMERLIKE WARMTH TUE AND WED AWAY FROM
BOTH COASTS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION FROM
GULF. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD EASILY REACH LOWER 80S INLAND WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN 50S TO AROUND 60. WE
ALSO NEED TO WATCH A BACKDOOR FRONT LURKING CLOSE TO NORTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE AS WELL, PERHAPS INTO
THE 40S OR LOWER 50S, BUT RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS LIKE THAT FRONT
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH UNTIL SOMETIME WED NIGHT OR THU.
ONE THING WE ARE MONITORING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TUE AND WED, MAINLY FROM 2 PM TO
10 PM. TROUGH AXIS NEAR EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR WEST BOTH DAYS, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SURVIVE THE TRIP
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TUE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE INTERESTING DAY WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-91. GUIDANCE
SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG) TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
RATHER IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6-7 C/KM) THAT WE DON'T SEE
TOO OFTEN HERE AND SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KT. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING STORMS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. NOTE BOTH 3KM NAM AND RRFS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN
DEPICTING A SMALL LINE OF STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH HREF UPDRAFT HELICITIES ARE FOCUSED MORE IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES ARE IN THAT AREA AS
WELL. HOWEVER, CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WED THOUGH
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY.
CSU AND SPC HREF EXPAND THE LOW SEVERE RISK INTO MORE OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 IN CT, RI, AND
MA) WITH CONTINUED STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR (40-50KT) AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS INTO LOWER 60S). MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
MARGINAL HOWEVER (5-6 C/KM) BUT THAT COULD BE OVERCOME WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW (AND
HIGHER TO WEST OF NEW ENGLAND) WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THU-
SAT, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MA, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN EXACTLY
WHERE IS ENDS UP.
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS WE DEAL WITH
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.
TYPICALLY THESE FRONTS END UP SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL MA INTO RI,
WITH SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO ITS SOUTH (HARTFORD) AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FOR NOW WE ARE
BASING FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND WHICH HELPS IRON OUT SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY, BUT GETTING MORE INTO TIME WINDOW FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS WILL HELP REFINE FORECAST IN COMING DAYS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR BIG TEMPERATURE BUSTS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS REGION SOMETIME SUN,
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR MID APRIL, GENERALLY IN 50S TO AROUND 60.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXCEPTION IS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING. MAIN CONCERN INTO THE EVENING IS
STRONG SW WINDS, GUSTING TO 25-35KT ALONG WITH LLWS DUE TO 020 WINDS
230/50-60KT.
VFR TUE WITH LIGHTER S/SW WINDS AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING FREQUENT 30KT GUSTS TO THE
WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME 35KT GUSTS LIKELY AROUND CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. MAINTAINING CURRENT HEADLINES OF SCA AND GALE
WARNINGS AS A RESULT.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED
WHEN LOCAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING EARLY TONIGHT ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS DUE TO MILD SW
WINDS OVER COLDER OCEAN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD HIGHS:
TUE 4/14
BOSTON 83 IN 2023
HARTFORD 96 IN 2023
PROVIDENCE 87 IN 2023
WORCESTER 90 IN 2023
WED 4/15
BOSTON 82 IN 1896
HARTFORD 88 IN 1941
PROVIDENCE 82 IN 1938
WORCESTER 85 IN 1941
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
CLIMATE...JWD
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