496
FXUS61 KBOX 240518
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1218 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COAST FOR THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ONLY MINOR
FLOODING, LESS THAN ONE FOOT DEEP, IS EXPECTED IN MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.
- THE HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING RI AND EASTERN MA WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MOSTLY CLEAR DAY TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED ED WEATHER BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ONE MORE ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO SHALLOW FLOODING LESS THAN ONE FOOT DEEP IN MORE
VULNERABLE AREAS. THERE IS ENOUGH LEFTOVER SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5
FT ON TOP OF THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TO BRING MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE
TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. IN ADDITION, SEAS OF 20 FEET OFF THE
EASTERN MA COAST ARE SHOWING WAVE PERIODS OF 13 SECONDS WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF LARGE SWELL ENERGY, THUS EROSION IMPACTS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED PARTS OF THE COASTLINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING RI AND
EASTERN MA WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
625 PM UPDATE...
WHILE THE HEAVY SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA,
THE DEFORMATION BAND IS ACTUALLY REGENERATING A BIT ACROSS
EASTERN MA SO PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE. DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
THROUGH THE TEENS. THIS AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE BAND WEAKENING WITH SNOW
ENDING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM ACROSS EASTERN MA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT MESOSCALE SNOW BAND HAMMERING RI AND SE MA IS
WEAKENING AS LOW PRES HAS MOVED EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND
HEADING OFFSHORE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. MAY STILL HAVE AN HOUR OR 2 OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES BEFORE THE SNOW LIGHTENS UP AND EVENTUALLY ENDS EARLY
THIS EVENING. MAX SNOWFALL FROM THIS STORM WILL BE 2-3 FEET
CONFINED TO RI AND SE MA.
PEAK OF THE WIND IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WIND GUSTS
TO 60- 80 MPH HERE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH 50-60 MPH GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND
MOVES OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE, DRYING OUT TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SNE WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS, WITH LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MOSTLY CLEAR DAY TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MAY BRING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY
FRIDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. A
TRAILING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OF ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE INTERIOR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. NBM HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR 1
INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE WORCESTER HILLS
AND BERKSHIRES. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM
INTO MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL VARIATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS FALLING WELL BELOW
FREEZING AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THESE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MELTING AND REFREEZING OF
ANY MELTED SNOW, LEADING TO SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
WALKWAYS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IMPACTS FROM ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRACK NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR CWA WHICH RESULT IN MORE OF THE WAY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. AGAIN, WE ARE NEARLY 6 DAYS AWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM
SO EXACT DETAILS WILL BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO W-LY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING -SN CHANCES LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF AN
INCH OR TWO AT THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SN,
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN, SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS THROUGH
12Z THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT. EXPECTING
WINDS TO HOVER AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES. SEAS SUBSIDE
THROUGHOUT TODAY, DROPPING TO 5-7 FEET BY SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE
BUILDING BACK UP TO 5-7 FEET WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
SNOW, SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN
LIKELY, CHANCE OF SNOW. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230>237-
256.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
250-251-254-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-251-
254-255.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN/JWD
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page