689
FXUS61 KBOX 142356
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
756 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THEN HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
SMALL HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AND
WINDY WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATED 215 PM MON
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WHICH ALLOWS A WARM FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY TO LIFT NE TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TYPICAL PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CERTAINLY NOT
SEEING A LOT OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OR LIFT, AS MODELS
HAVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT LIFTING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, SO
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ON LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY 0.10" OR SO.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPDATED 215 PM MON
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL (GRAUPEL).
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR THINKING FOR TUE. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH REGION TUE MORNING, KEEPING CLOUDS LOCKED IN ALONG WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO START THE DAY.
ONCE WE BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED IN WARM SECTOR, WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED, HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN LOWER LEVELS (0-3KM CAPE) WHICH
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT SUPPORTS
SMALL HAIL (GRAUPEL) AND LIGHTNING IF CORES CAN MANAGE TO GROW
HIGH ENOUGH. CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING AT A SEVERE WEATHER DAY,
HOWEVER. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH, WHERE THE COLD POOL COLLOCATES WITH BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT CERTAINLY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND CT
STAND BEST CHANCES IN SNE. IT'S POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS SURVIVES
INTO EASTERN MA/RI (MAYBE NE MA?) BUT ODDS ARE LOWER THERE.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TUE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUE NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND
DRIER AIR. WINDS BECOME GUSTY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MIXING LAYER
BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATED 215 PM MON
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO HIGH 50S WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CLEARING
SUNDAY
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK END OF A LOW DEEPENING
OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN
THE BERKSHIRES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIMILAR STORY FOR THURSDAY, ALBEIT A
BIT WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED DIURNAL MIXING.
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS WELL.
A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLIER IN THE WEEK (ALONG WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK) EXITS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO THE
HIGH 50 TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH FLOW
SHIFTING MORE S TO SW TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS, IT'S POSSIBLE
SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP FROM MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF BERMUDA. A LOW BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO FINALLY RISE ABOVE 0C EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE HIGH 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, CAPE, AND ISLANDS, AND INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY...
A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GOING INTO SATURDAY,
PUTTING THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SATURDAY BEING WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH ENSEMBLES
HAVING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 10C TO 12C ACROSS THE CWA. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT... NEAR 90 PERCENT FOR THE
CANADIAN... THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL HIT 70F SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM
CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP LIMIT
TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BRINING A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION, WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST, AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT RETURN TO AROUND 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
SINK BACK DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON BUT WITH
CONTINUED RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND CT. CLEARING TUE NIGHT.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES CONTINUES FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS BACK TO S/SW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW
WINDS TUE GUSTING TO 20-25KT AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW TUE
NIGHT WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS GUSTING TO 25-30KT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE, INCLUDING SEA BREEZE ENDING THIS
EVENING. EXPECTING TS TO REMAIN WEST OF AIRPORT LATE TUE
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE 20Z-23Z TUE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
KEY POINTS:
* PERIOD OF W/NW GALES POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND NEXT SYSTEM LATER TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MOST LIKELY BRINGS GUSTS OF 25-30KT BUT POSSIBLY HIGHER.
ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FOR W/NW WINDS POTENTIALLY
GUSTING TO 35-40KT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ON WATERS AROUND AND
OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT 34KT
GUSTS ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
254.
SYNOPSIS...MCMINN/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN/JWD
MARINE...MCMINN/JWD
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