775  
FXUS61 KBOX 062337  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
737 PM EDT MON APR 6 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH A PASSING  
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT.  
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF LIGHT  
RAINS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FAST MOVING LOW  
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THAT WARM FRONT AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDES IN ON THURSDAY BRINGING  
MORE RAIN FOR THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
730 PM UPDATE...  
 
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING TOWARD  
SOME OF THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THIS INCREASES CLOUD  
COVER SLIGHTLY LESS QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
A WEAK 1020 MB BUBBLE HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE EXTENDS A RIDGE  
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS  
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW  
ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REGIME IS IN PLACE ALOFT, LEADING TO A  
SEASONABLY STRONG NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW/JET. SO DESPITE THE  
SURFACE RIDGE, A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LEADING TO SOME  
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT  
LAKES WILL RIPPLE SE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER  
TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION TONIGHT, WITH LOW-LEVELS BEING QUITE DRY (FROM 850 MB TO SFC)  
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE  
INITIAL CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR, EXPECT A SHARP FALL IN  
TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET THRU LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT. AS CLOUDS COME  
IN, STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD START TO SLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT  
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE  
ON HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MAY GET, GIVEN THE NET INCREASE IN CLOUD  
COVER ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. OPTED FOR LOWS IN THE  
MID 30S TO LOW 40S, BUT IF THE CLOUDS SHOULD PROVE MORE DELAYED IN  
ARRIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING  
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TUESDAY:  
 
12Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SHIFTS THE PASSING MID-/UPPER DISTURBANCE ALOFT  
INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. MID-LEVEL RH TENDS TO  
SUBSIDE THROUGH MID-/LATE MORNING PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS, WHICH  
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE  
COMBINATION OF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS (OTHER THAN NEAR THE  
COAST, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SEA-BREEZES INDICATED IN SOME GUIDANCE)  
AND GREATER SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS INTO THE  
LOW TO MID 60S (A FEW UPPER 60S TOWARDS THE CT VALLEY). GIVEN THE  
SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCE, COOLER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE  
COAST.  
 
FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE, LOWEST RHS ARE PROJECTED TO BE A  
BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE INTERIOR (AROUND 25-35 PERCENT, DUE TO HIGHER  
AFTERNOON MIXED-DEWPOINTS THAN TODAY) AND WEST WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT  
WEAKER WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. SEE THE UPDATED FIRE  
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT:  
 
LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING, AS A WEAK AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS LOW IS  
AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WHICH TRIES TO BUILD NE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
REGARDING THE WARM FRONT, THERE IS SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW  
FAR NORTHEAST THE FEATURE ACTUALLY PROGRESSES, GIVEN SOME LEFTOVER  
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINS (SOLID LIKELY POPS)  
MAINLY ALONG AND SW OF A GREENFIELD TO WORCESTER TO PLYMOUTH LINE,  
WITH LOWER END LIKELY POPS TOWARDS NE MA. RAIN AMOUNTS RANGE FROM  
BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR NE MA WITH A TAPERED INCREASE TO  
JUST UNDER A QUARTER-INCH TOWARDS NORTHERN CT EASTWARD INTO  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN RI.  
 
WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS  
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD, THOUGH TOWARDS MORNING WILL START TO  
SEE AN INCREASE IN NE WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THAT TIDES ARE  
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH WITH THE UPCOMING SUPERMOON, THIS COULD RESULT  
IN SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT LEAST FOR EASTERN MA  
AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS ALONG CAPE COD BAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE  
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS  
 
* ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
* POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY AROUND  
HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF MA AND NANTUCKET. SEE THE  
TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
* TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY  
LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPEN AS IT  
LIFTS EAST OF CAPE COD LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE  
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH. BEST SHOT  
FOR RAIN IS DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END FROM  
WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. GOOD CLUSTERING VIA  
ENSEMBLE PLUME GUIDANCE WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 0.2  
INCHES TO ROUGHLY 0.4 INCHES.  
 
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON  
FLOW AT 925 HPA AND THE SURFACE EXPECTING WINDS TO BE NE/E WHICH  
WILL ADVECT IN AIR FROM THE OCEAN. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. HELD OFF FROM  
GOING WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AS THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ON IF  
THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY BOUNCE UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE  
MID 40S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA TO THE LOW 50S IN THE CT RIVER  
VALLEY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...  
 
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND  
SLIDES THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE RIDGE A CUTOFF  
LOW WILL ROTATE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES BY LATE ON THURSDAY. A WEAK HIGH WILL INITIALLY BUILD IN  
BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL  
REMAIN NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND COULD  
POTENTIALLY SEE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
NO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN. THIS  
WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S  
AND LOW 40S.  
 
SOME DISCREPANCY ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE  
REGION BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE GFS/NAM IS SLOWER THAN  
THE ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE  
ECWMF AND GEM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, WHICH MATCHES WELL  
WITH THE LATEST NBM. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS  
OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PIECES OF GUIDANCE  
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ALL SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED  
J/KG OF MUCAPE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO  
DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALOFT, BUT ANY STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. BEARS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON,  
BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS LOOK WITH SOME CAMS. HAVE NOT  
INCLUDED ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  
 
AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALSO ANTICIPATING THAT A STRONG 50+ KT  
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE  
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MUCH OF THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN.  
MAY NEED TO INCREASE GUSTS IN FUTURE UPDATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW LOOKS  
LIKE GUSTS OF 30 MPH TO POTENTIALLY 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT  
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS AFTER THIS POINT IN TIME. THERE  
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE  
CUTOFF SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THE GFS BEING THE QUICKEST  
AND THE ECMWF/GEM MUCH SLOWER. THINK THAT THE ECMWF/GEM SEEM MORE  
REASONABLE AND TEND TO HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS MUCH BETTER THAN THE  
TOO FAST GFS.  
 
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH  
WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EVEN SEE SOME  
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATION. THIS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST  
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY  
WHERE THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL  
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL  
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS ON  
FRIDAY TOP OUT INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...  
 
POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE ON  
SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH, WHEREAS THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP A  
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HAVE KEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE DUE TO  
THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME. BETTER SHOT FOR DRIER WEATHER  
APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
00Z DISCUSSION...  
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH 3-8 KT WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF  
THE W/WNW. WILL SEE SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS  
AROUND 10-15 KFT OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING.  
ANY OF THE MID CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS  
ITSELF INTO THE REGION. HAVE HINTED AT FAIR WEATHER CU  
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING, BUT LOOKS MORE LIKELY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON PER NAMNEST/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. CEILINGS SHOULD BE  
AROUND 5-6 KFT. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS  
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. IF THE GUSTY WINDS DO NOT DEVELOP OR WHEN THE  
GUSTY WINDS DECOUPLE AM EXPECTING SEA-BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG  
THE EASTERN MA COAST. SINCE THE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR HAVE  
TIMED GUSTY WINDS ENDING AROUND THE SAME TIME THEY ENDED TODAY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE  
 
WARM FRONT BRINGS IN LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD MVFR AND POTENTIALLY  
IFR LEVELS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR IS ACROSS THE EASTERN  
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES, MUCH OF CT AND THE SOUTH COAST OF RI.  
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING IN. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY VISIBILITY  
REDUCTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. W WINDS BECOME  
LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NE 4-8 KT.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. CONFIDENCE IN THE  
WIND DIRECTION LOWERS TO MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
UNCERTAIN ON WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT THE WIND  
DIRECTION.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
RA.  
 
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE RA.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.  
 
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.  
 
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERALL  
ON THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA  
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LOOKING AT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UNDER 20 KT WITH  
SEAS 2-4' ON THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 1-3 FT NEAR SHORE.  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS  
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. VISBYS IN RAIN SHOULD BE 3-6 MILES. WHILE SEAS  
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME ENHANCEMENT TO  
NE WINDS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL-SCA GUSTS TO THE EASTERN  
MA WATERS TOWARD PRE-DAWN/EARLY WED.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. RAIN LIKELY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.  
AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN LIKELY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO  
35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.  
 
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAVE FALLEN  
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
AN SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM,  
WITH GOOD RECOVERY IN RH EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES COOL.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SUNSHINE THAN TODAY, LOWEST  
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS INTERIOR MA, CT AND RI PROJECT  
AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT, A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY. WILL ALSO  
HAVE SOME WEST WINDS THOUGH GUST SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 20 MPH OR LESS.  
THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. ANOTHER SPS  
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR  
TOMORROW PENDING INPUT FROM FORESTRY PARTNERS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL START TO RISE INTO MID TO LATE WEEK (ACROSS  
MULTIPLE TIDAL CYCLES) WITH THE UPCOMING SUPERMOON. THE FIRST PERIOD  
TO WATCH AT LEAST FOR SOME POSSIBLE SPLASHOVER WOULD BE TUESDAY  
NIGHT, AT LEAST FOR THE EASTERN COASTS. ASTRO TIDE FOR BOSTON HARBOR  
IS 11.6 FT AT 1143 PM TUESDAY NIGHT, AND IS 3.7 FT FOR NANTUCKET  
HARBOR AT 1241 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THESE TIDES ARE HIGH,  
POOR WAVE ACTION (SEAS UNDER 4') AND WEAK ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD  
PRECLUDE A GREATER COASTAL FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE FROM  
STEVENS INSTITUTE INDICATES A WORST-CASE MINOR FLOODING SCENARIO  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN MA. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A COASTAL  
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN MA,  
ESPECIALLY IF NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE STRONGER  
THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED AND COINCIDE NEAR OR AROUND THE  
AFOREMENTIONED TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE INTO MID TO LATE THIS  
WEEK. BEST SHOT FOR ONSHORE FLOW IS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WAVE  
HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW 4 FT. EXPECT HIGHER SEAS ON THURSDAY WITH A  
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING  
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THINK THURSDAY HAS THE BEST SHOT  
FOR ANY FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN MA AND NANTUCKET IN COMBINATION  
WITH THE STEVENS INSTITUTE GUIDANCE. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED  
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. NOT  
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES  
AT NANTUCKET.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BL/LOCONTO  
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO  
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO  
LONG TERM...BL  
AVIATION...BL/LOCONTO  
MARINE...BL/LOCONTO  
FIRE WEATHER...  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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