592
FXUS61 KBOX 162328
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
728 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING
COLDER SUN NIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL MON-TUE, THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TOWARD MIDWEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW PROBABILITY
(< 20%) FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
AMPLE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CUMULUS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THOSE AREAS. A SIGN THAT AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON GIVEN THAT WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN BETTER BULK SHEAR VALUES. ALL THAT BEING
SAID, WE CAN STILL SEE A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
AFTER SUNSET. WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR OVERLAP
IN FAR WEST/NW MA, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. OVERALL
CAMS SHOW LIMITED COVERAGES OF STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE
EASTWARD AFTER SUNSET. A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
COOLER DAY FRIDAY COMPARED THE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
LOCATIONS THAT WERE WELL INTO THE 80S IN WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S IN WEST, CENTRAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FURTHER EAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS GIVEN THE LOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING
COLDER SUN NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING IN CONTROL ON SAT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE FOR MID APRIL AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
THEN A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GT LAKES
WITH THE ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SNE DURING
SUNDAY. A PLUME OF PWATS 1.25-1.5" MOVE INTO SNE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACTING ON THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW T-STORMS
AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENG BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN MA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLUMN COOLS RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO END AS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN MA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
IF IT HAPPENS NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. PWATS DROP QUICKLY
FROM W TO E LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
AND TURNING MUCH COLDER IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. TEMPS
BY MON MORNING WILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID 30S, WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK W-NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S AROUND DAYBREAK MON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL MON-TUE, THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MIDWEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
BE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH MON INTO MON
NIGHT SO IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL DURING THIS PERIOD. 850 MB
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -10C MON NIGHT. EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
MON BUT DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S MON NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY TUE BUT STILL CHILLY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, THEN TEMPS GET BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMALS
WED AND THU. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE:
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR INTERIOR, BUT IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXPAND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL GET AND
IT MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
T-STORM MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR ELSEWHERE AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR EASTERN MA AND
RI DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
DEVELOPING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO S-SW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 05-06Z WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NE WINDS RETURN FRI MORNING WITH IFR LIKELY PERSISTING ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A T-STORM DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS 2-5 FT AND WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS. SW WINDS SHIFT TO NE
LATER FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AM OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
PASSAGE OF STRONGER COLD FRONT SUN SHOULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST OUTER WATERS SUN INTO MON.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...KJC/LOCONTO/MENSCH
MARINE...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
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