962
FXUS61 KBOX 071756
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING. DRY/COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS
TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
- SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING. DRY/COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS TONIGHT
INTO MON NIGHT.
A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...THE DYNAMICS/COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING WHICH POTENTIALLY MAY APPROACH 1000
J/KG NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY ISOLATED T-STORMS. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF A T-STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT AND MODEST T/TD SPREADS. ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE IT MAY LINGER INTO PART OF THIS
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT ON NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING
LOCATIONS WILL BRIEFLY DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80...BUT COOLER UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON PARTS OF THE VERY
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND
60 AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO WARM ADVECT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLE.
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO OUR TEMPERATURES
STARTING TUESDAY, AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN AND
THEN BEGINS TO FLATTEN AROUND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
WEDNESDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C RANGE TO GO
ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
FEW CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES
POSSIBLY WARRANTING HEAT HEADLINES. THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASES AS WE
MOVE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENS AND ALLOWS FOR INCREASING MIDLEVEL WINDS TO INTERACT WITH
THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED T-STORM
OR TWO WHICH MAY LINGER INTO PART OF THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD MAINLY MVFR CIGS ROUGHLY IN THE 22Z TO 06Z
MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE GREATEST
RISK ACROSS EASTERN MA/CAPE AND ISLANDS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO
ITEMS...VFR CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR WINDS...NW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT TO
THE N TONIGHT. BRIEF N WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST BEFORE THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH OR EVEN DECOUPLE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE SPOTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE WINDS MON BECOMING SW
MON NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY EARLY-MID EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURGE OF N WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MOST OF
OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION MON WILL RESULT
IN WINDS/SEAS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST MOST OUTER-WATERS.
LASTLY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORM
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE WITH ANY T-STORM.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...FRANK/LOCONTO
MARINE...FRANK/LOCONTO
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