781
FXUS61 KBOX 240710
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
210 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NNW AT 35-45MPH THIS MORNING
- OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST INTO CAPE COD TODAY
- BREEZY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FEATURING SNOW, ICE, AND RAIN MIX
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NNW AT
35-45MPH THIS MORNING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT DROP DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT BRINGING A LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWING WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID-30S TO LOW-40S,
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES A 45-50 KNOT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR
MIXING TO BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER WINDS AT 850MB. BUFKIT
SOUNDS SHOW THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS REACHING ABOVE 35-45MPH
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM BEFORE THE LLJ BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTH, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR 45-
50MPH GUSTS REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST INTO CAPE COD TODAY
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE SOUTH SHORE IN PARTICULAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW-FALL IN THE MID 30S, BUT SOME HEAVY WET
FLAKES OR RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN ABOUT 10AM AND 2PM
TOMORROW. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW,
WE WOULD EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS <1". SHOULD TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AND MESO-SCALE FORCING TREND STRONGER, WE COULD SEE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE LATEST HREF MODEL SUPPORTS
A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1" ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN MA TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BREEZY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
FALL QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CHRISTMAS MORNING STARTS OFF QUITE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY AT 20-30MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER WINDS TO ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH 35-45MPH GUSTS
MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, BUT WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK AFTER
SUNSET, POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 7 PM.
WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FEATURING SNOW, ICE, AND
RAIN MIX BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO TIME FRAMES TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS; FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BUT, WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT DETAILS, THIS IS WHERE THE
UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY. FIRST, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST, AND EJECTS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, THERE
IS VARYING GUIDANCE ON THE OVERALL TRACK AND THAT REMAINS THE CASE
AS OF THIS UPDATE. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A VAST SPREAD IN THE
AMOUNT OF QPF, WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF MORE THAN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN
INCH. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, PTYPES FAVOR SNOW, BUT STILL TIME
TO WATCH TRACK DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATION ARE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CT AND THE NYC METRO - WHERE THERE
ARE 60 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITES FOR MORE THAN 2" OF SNOW.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
WINTRY WEATHER, BUT THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. THESE ARE DAYS 5 AND 6, AND FELT IT'S IMPORTANT TO
MENTION BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAYS.
AT THIS TIME EXACT DETAILS AREN'T AVAILABLE BECAUSE OF THE VARYING
TIMING AND SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
WINTRY PTYPES; SNOW, ICE, AND RAIN MIXED.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE..
REST OF TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW END MVFR TO MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST MA WITH
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE COAST BY 06Z WITH IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS/VSBYS FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY
12Z EXCEPT AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIGHT S WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING SHIFT TO THE WNW TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO GUST
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR OUTSIDE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE STRATOCUMULUS AND OCEAN
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT,
UNDER A HALF INCH. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL BRING WIND SHEAR CONCERNS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS CAN CATCH UP
LATER IN THE MORNING. GUSTS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 30-35
KNOTS FROM THE NNW WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS GOING
CALM AFTER 00Z.
TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
RAIN/SNOW WILL END BY 08Z WITH DRYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY SUNRISE WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS TODAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS THIS MORNING WITH VFR AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. NNW GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY
NNW WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH 7-
10 FOOT WAVES OFFSHORE, AND 4-6 FOOT WAVES NEAR SHORE AND IN THE
SOUNDS. BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE STRONGER
WINDS ARRIVE AGAIN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE NNW ONCE AGAIN LOOK POSSIBLE STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 11 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
SNOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ002-008-009.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230>237-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/KP
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP
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