341
FXUS61 KBOX 082346
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
746 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREEZES THURSDAY FAVORING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
- GENERALLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FAVORING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CENTER OF A BROAD AND DRY 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR EASTERN NY/ALBANY NY VICINITY, AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURS
NIGHT.
WITH VERY DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS (MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN WESTERN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND), IT CREATES A
NEARLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE
MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND, FALLING INTO THE LOW-
MID 20S AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
LOWS SHOULD BE MORE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH JUST ENOUGH OF
A SOUTHERLY WIND.
MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FULL SUN AGAIN
EXPECTED THURSDAY. WILL HAVE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH AWAY FROM THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
COAST, AND THOUGH RHS WON'T BE QUITE AS LOW AS TODAY, WE
ANTICIPATE RHS TO BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. THIS ISN'T AS CLEAR-CUT A CASE AS TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL RATHER COOL, BUT WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MA, RI
AND CT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THURSDAY AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
STATE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN LIKELY; HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CONTINUED MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
AND STRONGER COOLING OVER LAND, IT'S A POTENTIAL SNEAKY SETUP
FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GENERALLY DRY THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFFSHORE FRIDAY, PERMITTING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH SHOULD PEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE WE ARE STARTING ABOVE NORMAL, THIS COLDER
AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF
NOSING NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
FIELDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S MONDAY
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THAT, MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER AND PART OF THE
METROWEST BOSTON. THESE AREAS WILL AVOID ONSHORE FLOW WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40F.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND
PERHAPS BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. BUT OVERALL,
MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT TREND LIGHT SE, CALM AT
TIMES. WINDS FOR THURSDAY TREND SE TO S AROUND 5-10 KT, ON THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KT FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AIRPORTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, THOUGH MODERATE ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS.
MAINLY VFR; THOUGH WITH RETURNING SHALLOW MOISTURE OFF THE
WATER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY MVFR-IFR VISBY FOG AFTER
01Z FRIDAY FOR PVD AND THE CAPE AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY
END UP BEING STILL TOO DRY FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KT INLAND, THOUGH LIGHT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY OVER
THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NE/E WINDS 15-20 KT
TODAY EASE TONIGHT AND BECOME SE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS (AND COULD
TURN CALM FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT). SE TO S WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
THURS TO AROUND 10-15 KT, THOUGH SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA
CRITERION OVER THE WATERS EAST OF GLOUCESTER. WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER
4 FT ALL WATERS. POSSIBLE RISK FOR MARINE FOG THURSDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND ADJACENT TO CAPE COD.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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