854
FXUS61 KBOX 101106
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
706 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS FOR MARCH 10TH. DREARY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
BUT TURNS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. INCREASED WINDS
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND QUITE WARM TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
- CLOUDY, DREARY WEDNESDAY AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY NORTHERN
MA COMPARED TO CT/RI. THEN A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
- LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING THU, THEN BECOMING BLUSTERY AND
TURNING COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT, THEN BECOMING WINDY AND TURNING MILDER AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
- SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ONLY MINOR RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUNNY AND QUITE WARM TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST, ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO ADVANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES BUT ITS NORTHERN EXTENT SHOULD BE STUNTED BY AT LEAST
MODEST SW WINDS. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION, SO EVEN THOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISPERSE EARLY TUE, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS TO LURK AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THAT MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. THIS CASTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM TEMPS MAY GET ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND
COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND; ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST READINGS
SHOULD STILL BE RECORDED IN THESE LOCATIONS, IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECTING A PARTICULARLY WARM DAY BY EARLY-MARCH
STANDARDS. WSW WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION (850 MB TEMPS RISE TO +12 TO +14C) AND LEAD TO
SOARING TEMPS. GIVEN HIGHS YESTERDAY REACHED INTO THE 60S WITH A
FEW SPOT 70 DEGREE READINGS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SOME 3-5
DEGREES WARMER AND SUPPORT READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH
LOWER TO EVEN MID 70S IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS. SOME
DAILY RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED, BEST CHANCE BEING
HARTFORD/WINDSOR LOCKS AND WORCESTER; UNLIKELY TO SEE RECORDS AT
PROVIDENCE GIVEN COOLING MARINE INFLUENCE. TOUGHEST CALL IS
BOSTON; SHOULD SEE STRONG ENOUGH SWLY WINDS TO KEEP A SEABREEZE
OFFSHORE AND KEPT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 70, WHICH IS JUST UNDER THE
DAILY RECORD. IF A SEABREEZE DOES DEVELOP, HIGHS ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COAST WILL END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CLOUDY, DREARY WEDNESDAY AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
NORTHERN MA COMPARED TO CT/RI. THEN A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
CHALLENGING FORECAST WED ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS. AS
THE CASE EARLY THIS AM, TUE NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH RETURNING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO
PORTIONS OF CT- RI- SE MA. LEAD WAVE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH TUE NIGHT AND SHOULD REINFORCE COOLER TEMPS, WHICH
WILL DRAIN SOUTHWARD AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
BE MARKED BY A NE WIND SHIFT TO GO ALONG WITH DREARY CONDITIONS
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN/MIST. UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
SLIP INTO SNE BUT COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS THE PRE-DAWN WED
HOURS. IT EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON WED AS
A WARM FRONT THOUGH. AS SHOWN IN HIGHER RES 2-M TEMPS, THIS
CREATES QUITE A TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS SNE, WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH/NORTHEAST
MA WHILE AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY COULD AGAIN RISE
INTO THE MID 60S. OTHER THAN DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN, MOST OF
THE DAY IS GENERALLY DRIER THAN NOT.
THEN A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WED NIGHT, BUT STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TAKES PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET NEARING 50 KT. PWATS RISE TO AS MUCH AS 1.5" WED
NIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM TO AT LEAST +14C. EVEN
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE
NIGHTTIME STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIMES, ALTHOUGH ITS
SCOPE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM QUITE A BIT. 00Z NAM PROFILES
ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AND COULD SUPPORT THUNDER BUT MUCH MORE
PALTRY IN THE GFS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THIS WAVE BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING THU, THEN BECOMING BLUSTERY
AND TURNING COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SNE THU MORNING THEN OFFSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED AND TIMING OF FROPA WILL
DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS EXIT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE LATER FROPA ARRIVAL, THEN
DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS CRASH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT SO AFTER A MILD START TEMPS WILL FALL FROM THE 50S
IN THE EAST THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY W-NW WINDS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
BUT EXCELLENT MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THU NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 4...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT, THEN BECOMING WINDY AND TURNING MILDER AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BULK OF THE
QPF WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SUGGEST A PERIOD OF RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA.
MINOR SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THEN DRYING OUT
SAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING ANOMALOUS PWATS (APPROACHING
1.5") NORTHWARD INTO SNE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE LLJ AND PWAT ANOMALIES. SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FROM
THE RECENT ACCELERATED SNOWMELT. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD INTRODUCE
FLOODING CONCERNS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MILD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
KEY MESSAGE 5...SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ONLY MINOR RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SNOWMELT WILL BECOME MORE ACCELERATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND MOST OF THE SNOWPACK OUTSIDE OF THE
BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY BE DEPLETED BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL WED NIGHT INTO THU SO ONLY EXPECTING MINOR
FLOOD STAGES TO BE OBSERVED AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE FLOODING ARE
ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITION OF S. RI
RIVERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SW FLOW TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS, LIFR IMPROVES THIS MORNING BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE ACK HOLDS ONTO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY. FOR NOW WE
ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AROUND 16Z BUT THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN. EITHER WAY, LIFR RETURNS TO THESE AREAS
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AND PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, MVFR AND IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
E/NE WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING DAY WED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
RA, PATCHY BR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
SATURDAY: WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SUB-SCA WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WED. SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, THOUGH
SEAS BUILD TO 2-4 FT WED. MAIN CONCERNS FOR MARINERS ARE THE
RISK FOR NIGHTTIME FOG BOTH OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED, AND ALSO A NE WINDSHIFT FOR MARINERS NAVIGATING THE
NORTHERN WATERS WED.
SCAS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED WED NIGHT AS SEAS RISE OVER 5 FT ON ALL
WATERS. GUSTS COULD ALSO PUNCH INTO SCA RANGE BUT MORE THAN
LIKELY TO BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG INVERSION.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. AREAS OF
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, PATCHY FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 10TH...
BOS...71...1878
PVD...72...2016
BDL...72...2016
ORH...67...2020
AVERAGE HIGH FOR 3/10 IS 40-45.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJC/LOCONTO
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...KJC/LOCONTO
CLIMATE...LOCONTO
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