506  
FGUS71 KAKQ 072050  
ESFAKQ  
MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-  
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-  
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-  
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-  
760-800-810-830-092100-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
350 PM EST THU MAR 7 2019  
 
   
..FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2019
 
 
...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH  
MARCH 21ST...  
 
EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE  
IN WAKEFIELD, VA ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.  
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS  
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA).  
THE HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA, THE LOWER MARYLAND  
EASTERN SHORE, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE  
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL  
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS  
INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TOO RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL  
MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM FLOWS,  
RIVER ICE AND EXPECTED FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE  
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN  
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANYTIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN  
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.  
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 2 PM THIS  
COMING WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE RAIN FOR THE AREA AS A WARM  
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE SAME STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY  
WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. RAINFALL  
TOTALS FOR THE 3 DAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 2" POSSIBLE  
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES. DRY  
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK, BEFORE  
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE  
AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.THURSDAY MARCH 7 2019:  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - THE NOTTOWAY RIVER AT SEBRELL IS CURRENTLY IN  
FLOOD AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY MARCH 7 2019. THE REMAINING RIVERS IN  
THE WAKEFIELD HSA ARE NOT IN FLOOD.  
 
RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS FROM FEBRUARY 6 2019  
TO MARCH 7 2019, THE PRECIPITATION HAS RANGED FROM 4" TO 8".  
THESE TOTALS RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 4" ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
LOOKING BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR THROUGH MARCH 7TH,  
THE RAIN TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 18"- 24" (NEAR NORMAL +/-2"  
TO 4" ABOVE NORMAL) FROM THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER INTO NORTHEASTERN  
NORTH CAROLINA TO 24" - 32" (4" - 10" ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST REPORTED TOTAL WAS FROM A  
COCORAHS REPORTER AT BISHOPVILLE, MD WITH 32.67".  
 
SNOW CONDITIONS - CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE  
WAKEFIELD HSA.  
 
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - CURRENTLY THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA RIVERS.  
 
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - THE 14 DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS WERE  
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE WAKEFIELD HSA.  
 
WHEN LOOKING AT THE REAL TIME FLOWS AS OF 1 PM MARCH 7TH, THE  
STREAM FLOW VALUES WERE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE FOR  
THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.  
MEANWHILE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THE RANGED FROM NORMAL  
LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR GAUGES IN  
THE COASTAL PLAIN.HERE ARE SOME REAL TIME STREAM FLOWS AS OF 1 PM  
FEBRUARY 21ST:  
 
LOCATION OBSERVED LEVEL/MEDIAN FLOW/PERCENTAGE OF MEDIAN  
RIVANNA RIVER  
PALMYRA VA 1650 CFS/ 794 CFS/207.8  
JAMES RIVER  
CARTERSVILLE VA 23800 CFS/ 10100 CFS/235.6  
RICHMOND VA 26700 CFS/9450 CFS/282.5  
APPOMATTOX RIVER  
FARMVILLE VA 460 CFS/ 300 CFS/153.3  
MATTOAX VA1180 CFS/ 817 CFS/144.4  
MATOACA VA2620 CFS/1260 CFS/207.9  
NOTTOWAY RIVER  
RAWLINGS VA 513 CFS/ 355 CFS/144.5  
STONY CREEK VA1070 CFS/ 649 CFS/164.9  
SEBRELL VA6780 CFS/1750 CFS/387.4  
MEHERRIN RIVER  
LAWRENCEVILLE VA 881 CFS/ 564 CFS/156.2  
EMPORIA VA1170 CFS/ 758 CFS/154.4  
BLACKWATER RIVER  
FRANKLIN VA2500 CFS/ 953 CFS/262.3  
MATTAPONI RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN VA 708 CFS/ 308 CFS/229.9  
BEULAHVILLE VA1950 CFS/ 701 CFS/278.2  
POCOMOKE RIVER  
WILLARDS MD 232 CFS/ 92 CFS/252.2  
POTECASI CREEK  
UNION NC 799 CFS/ 302 CFS/264.6  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY  
INDEX, WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE AND LONG TERM  
DROUGHT, SHOWS THAT AS OF MARCH 2,2019 THE WAKEFIELD HSA IS  
DEPICTED AS BEING EXTREMELY MOIST ACROSS ALL OF VIRGINIA, THE  
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE BEING VERY MOIST, AND NORTHEASTERN  
NORTH CAROLINA AS UNUSUALLY MOIST.  
 
THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE MONITOR, AS OF MARCH 6TH, WHICH LOOKS MORE  
AT TOP SOIL MOISTURE, IS SHOWING GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS WITH  
MOISTURE SURPLUSES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 MM ALONG THE COASTAL  
AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TO AS MUCH AS 120 MM IN THE  
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.  
 
GROUND WATER - ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE HSA ARE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE  
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM RICHMOND THROUGH HAMPTON  
ROADS. THE REST OF THE WAKEFIELD HSA IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL - HIGH  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
RESERVOIRS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL POOL LEVELS  
 
MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS WATER STORAGE ARE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE  
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
FUTURE PRECIPITATION...  
 
THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING  
WEEK BEGINNING WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN, PERHAPS MIXED WITH  
SOME SNOW IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LAST CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE TOWARD THE  
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AROUND MARCH 14TH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
ARRIVES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1".  
 
THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 15 - MARCH 21 2019  
IS INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE 7 DAY TIME PERIOD.  
 
LASTLY, FOR THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY, THE  
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS AND FOR  
TEMPERATURES THE FORECAST IS FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 21 2019 ACROSS THE  
WAKEFIELD HSA IS NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR. AGAIN, REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MOST COMMON CAUSE  
OF RIVER FLOODING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER RIVER  
FLOODING CAN BE EXACERBATED WHEN HEAVY RAIN IS COMBINED WITH SNOW  
MELT.  
 
THE NEXT FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR MARCH 21 2019.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT  
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AKQ.  
 

 
 
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