133  
FGUS71 KAKQ 102049  
ESFAKQ  
MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-  
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-  
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-  
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-  
760-800-810-830-122100-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
349 PM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
 
   
..FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2019
 
 
...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH  
JANUARY 24TH...  
 
EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE  
IN WAKEFIELD, VA ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.  
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS  
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA).  
THE HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA, THE LOWER MARYLAND  
EASTERN SHORE, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE  
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL  
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS  
INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TOO RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL  
MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM FLOWS,  
RIVER ICE AND EXPECTED FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE  
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN  
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANYTIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN  
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.  
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 3 PM  
THURSDAY JANUARY 10 2019:  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 3 PM  
THURSDAY JANUARY 10 2019.  
 
RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS FROM DECEMBER 12  
2018 TO JANUARY 10 2019, THE PRECIPITATION HAS RANGED FROM 2" TO  
5". THESE TOTALS RANGED FROM 1" BELOW NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 2"  
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOWER TOTALS WERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND  
NORTHEASTERN NC. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS STRETCHED FROM THE NORTH  
CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.  
 
LOOKING BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR THROUGH JANUARY  
10TH, THE RAIN TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10"- 15" (UP TO 2"  
ABOVE NORMAL) FROM THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH  
CAROLINA TO 15" - 21" (2" - 8" ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST REPORTED TOTAL WAS FROM THE COOPERATIVE  
OBSERVER NEAR AMELIA COURTHOUSE WHO REPORTED A TOTAL OF 20.17".  
 
SNOW CONDITIONS - CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE  
WAKEFIELD HSA.  
 
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - CURRENTLY THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA RIVERS.  
 
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - THE 14 DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS RANGED  
FROM ABOVE AVERAGE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE  
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THE AVERAGE FLOW VALUES ACROSS THE  
JAMES, RAPPAHANNOCK AND YORK BASINS HAD THE HIGHEST FLOWS COMPARED  
TO NORMAL. ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THE FLOWS WERE IN THE  
NORMAL RANGE, BUT WERE ON THE HIGH END OF NORMAL AND VERY NEAR TO  
BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
WHEN LOOKING AT THE REAL TIME FLOWS AS OF 12 PM JANUARY 10TH, THE  
STREAMFLOW VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL ABOVE THE MEDIAN VALUE FOR THE  
DAY AND MOST WERE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE DAY. HERE ARE SOME  
REAL TIME STREAM FLOWS AS OF 12 PM JANUARY 10TH:  
 
LOCATION OBSERVED LEVEL/MEDIAN FLOW/PERCENTAGE OF MEDIAN  
RIVANNA RIVER  
PALMYRA VA 1060 CFS/ 549 CFS/193.1  
JAMES RIVER  
CARTERSVILLE VA 11400 CFS/5960 CFS/191.3  
RICHMOND VA 12500 CFS/5860 CFS/213.3  
APPOMATTOX RIVER  
FARMVILLE VA 354 CFS/ 223 CFS/ 158.7  
MATTOAX VA 867 CFS/ 547 CFS/158.5  
NOTTOWAY RIVER  
RAWLINGS VA 269 CFS/ 229 CFS/ 117.5  
STONY CREEK VA 483 CFS/ 446 CFS/ 108.3  
SEBRELL VA 1740 CFS/ 1440 CFS/ 120.8  
MEHERRIN RIVER  
LAWRENCEVILLE VA 515 CFS/ 512 CFS/ 100.6  
EMPORIA VA 650 CFS/ 498 CFS/ 130.5  
BLACKWATER RIVER  
FRANKLIN VA 1030 CFS/ 691 CFS/ 149.1  
MATTAPONI RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN VA 310 CFS/ 210 CFS/ 147.6  
BEULAHVILLE VA 967 CFS/ 541 CFS/ 178.7  
POCOMOKE RIVER  
WILLARDS MD 98 CFS/ 72 CFS/ 136.8  
POTECASI CREEK  
UNION NC 313 CFS/ 232 CFS/ 134.9  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY  
INDEX, WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE AND LONG TERM  
DROUGHT, SHOWS THAT AS OF JANUARY 10 2019 THE WAKEFIELD HSA, IS  
DEPICTED AS BEING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR  
DEEP SOIL MOISTURE. BUT ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND  
THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THE DEEP SOIL MOISTURE IS  
DESIGNATED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST TO VERY MOIST.  
 
THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE MONITOR, WHICH LOOKS MORE AT TOP SOIL  
MOISTURE, IS SHOWING GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS AS WELL WITH MOIST  
SURPLUSES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 MM ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF  
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TO AS MUCH AS 140 MM IN THE VIRGINIA  
PIEDMONT.  
 
GROUND WATER - NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  
 
GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE HSA ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE ALONG  
THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH  
CAROLINA AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO EVEN DAILY HIGH VALUES ACROSS  
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.  
 
RESERVOIRS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL POOL LEVELS  
 
MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS WATER STORAGE ARE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE  
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THERE IS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A STORM SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND  
MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY  
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING 0.50 - 1" OF LIQUID  
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT SOME PART OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT TO  
SEE THIS PRECIPITATION FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW/SLEET OR POSSIBLY  
FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECT SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHTER SNOW  
ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY THE 17TH  
LOOKS TO BE DRY.  
 
THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 18 - 24 2019 IS  
INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE 7 DAY TIME PERIOD.  
 
LASTLY, FOR THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH, THE  
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL WHILE FOR TEMPERATURES  
THE FORECAST IS FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH JANUARY 24 2019 ACROSS THE  
WAKEFIELD HSA IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
AGAIN, REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MOST COMMON CAUSE OF  
RIVER FLOODING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING  
CAN BE EXACERBATED WHEN HEAVY RAIN IS COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT.  
 
THE NEXT FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR JANUARY 24 2019.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT  
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AKQ.  
 

 
 
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