802  
FNUS71 KAKQ 221105  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR POWELL...NCFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
605 AM EST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EST ON FEBRUARY 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS  
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MODERATE RH LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.  
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13  
TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (51100 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................2 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 56 IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........63 55 43 35 31 35 35 40 44 49  
WEATHER COV.....PTY  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............32 39 46 52 56 59 61 61 62 60  
RH..............97 83 69 56 48 43 40 39 40 44  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.3 5 5 7 8 9 11 12 14 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 2.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 3 5 7 8 10 13 15 16 15  
LVORI...........10 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............2 4 9 17 27 40 51 52 56 41  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 3 5 11 18 28 36 45 51 34  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 3 AM.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (16600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................9 TO 14.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........58 66 72 77 82 81 79 78 79 80 81 84  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 40 40  
TEMP............55 53 51 50 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 52  
RH..............54 59 62 64 63 66 68 71 71 74 77 77  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SW S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 10 12 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 9  
LVORI...........2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4  
ADI.............14 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 8 8  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN IN THE MORNING.  
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST 7 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (39300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................11 TO 35.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........87 92 95 96 85 77  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 80 80 80 70 60  
TEMP............52 53 55 56 58 58  
RH..............80 83 86 90 83 80  
20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 SW 9 W 9 W 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 13 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1700 2300 2900 3300 3500  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 SW 8 SW 10 SW 14 W 14 W 12  
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 3  
ADI.............11 13 22 31 35 30  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 11 21 33 39 35  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...BROWN  
REQUESTED BY...JAMES CADDY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2404237.1/AKQ  
.DELDT 02/22/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JAMES.CADDY@NCAGR.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page