735  
FNUS71 KAKQ 121713  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PINEY GROVE PRESERVE - UNBURNED POCKET...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
113 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON AUGUST 12.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SUNNY  
AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. A  
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY, THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MOVING SOUTH  
FRIDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (22200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (36900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................30 INCREASING TO 36 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........23 23 22 22  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............88 88 88 88  
RH..............42 42 43 43  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.6 5.3 5.0 4.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 8 9  
LVORI...........2 2 1 1  
ADI.............29 26 33 36  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..22 28 34 37  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (23800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................28 DECREASING TO 3.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........17 13 9 9 10 10 16 21 26 26 26 26  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............85 83 80 78 76 75 74 73 73 73 72 72  
RH..............51 59 69 71 74 76 79 81 81 81 87 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7  
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6  
ADI.............28 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..24 12 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (101700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................8 INCREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 37 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 50 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 60  
INCREASING TO 70 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 63 INCREASING TO 73 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........33 46 43 43 46 46  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 20 20  
TEMP............72 74 82 88 91 92  
RH..............90 87 72 59 56 52  
20 FT WIND......S 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 10 12 14 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 1800 3100 4100 4600  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 14 SW 16 SW 18 SW 21 SW 24  
LVORI...........6 5 3 1 1 1  
ADI.............4 11 37 60 59 72  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 4 25 49 75 97  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...ZIMMERMAN  
REQUESTED BY...BOBBY CLONTZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1913707.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 08/12/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL BCLONTZ@TNC.ORG  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page