028  
FNUS71 KAKQ 101432  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BURNHAM ROAD FIRE...NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL AGAIN BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THERE IS A  
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES  
OF 105-109 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY  
THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL OUT NEARBY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE  
COULD BE A POP THUNDERSTORM NEARBY AFTER 3 OR 4 PM BUT MOST  
LIKELY ANY RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON  
THURSDAY AS THAT FRONT STALLS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE FIRE ON THURSDAY (1" OR MORE). SOUTH WINDS  
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER NOON TODAY, AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (37000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (75200 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................52 TO 63.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........52 56 55 55 55 54 55 55  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20  
TEMP............85 87 89 90 91 91 91 90  
RH..............75 70 66 62 62 62 60 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 16 18 19 20 21 22  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 16 17 18 21 22 23  
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............53 63 57 63 52 56 59 62  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..37 45 51 58 66 70 74 75  
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR FR FR GD GD GD GD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH  
AFTER 3 AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (56900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (7200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................72 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 7 LATE IN  
THE NIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........40 38 35 43 50 58 65 72 79 80 80 81  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 20 20 20 40 40 40 50  
TEMP............89 87 84 83 81 81 80 80 79 79 79 79  
RH..............64 68 74 77 82 82 88 88 91 91 91 91  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 19 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 1.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 23 22 21 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 12  
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5  
ADI.............72 26 20 18 16 15 14 14 14 9 8 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..57 37 18 14 10 7 7 7 7 9 11 12  
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3300 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................5 TO 16.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........80 76 76 77 80 81  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 60 60 80 80  
TEMP............78 80 83 86 87 88  
RH..............94 91 82 75 72 70  
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 11 11 11  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1300 1300 1400 1500 1500  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 SW 7 SW 3 S 5 S 8 S 5  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 3  
ADI.............7 12 6 8 16 10  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 8 4 5 11 7  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...MCGEE  
REQUESTED BY...JAMES CADDY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2417731.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 07/10/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL D7OPSRM@NCAGR.GOV  
 
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