520  
FNUS71 KAKQ 072122  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MATTAPONI WMA EGYPT PINES BURN...VA DEPT. OF WILDLIFE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
522 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 07.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH  
DEVELOPS OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY  
RETURN TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK,  
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. A BOUNDARY  
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES PART  
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL NOW, DROPPING TO 300 FT AGL LATER  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (18500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................23 DECREASING TO 2.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........23 25 28 25 22 19 19 18 18 29 40 51  
WEATHER COV..... PTY  
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............81 78 75 72 69 67 66 66 65 65 64 64  
RH..............51 60 69 79 87 93 97 97 100 100 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S SE NE N  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE E E E E SE SE E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 6  
LVORI...........2 3 3 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 10 9  
ADI.............23 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..19 8 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (36500 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 41.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........56 61 66 59 52 45 43 42 40 42 44 46  
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............65 66 68 72 77 81 83 84 85 85 84 83  
RH..............100 97 93 87 76 72 67 63 61 61 63 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE NE NE E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 2 5 6 6 7 8 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E NE NE E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 5 3 3 3 5 6 8 9 12  
LVORI...........9 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1  
ADI.............3 6 4 7 10 13 13 16 22 29 35 41  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 5 7 9 11 15 21 27 33 37  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 2 TO  
6 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (29800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............7.  
ADI.................38 DECREASING TO 5.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........46 44 43 48 58 65  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............81 75 72 70 69 69  
RH..............67 82 90 97 100 100  
20 FT WIND......E 6 E 4 E 3 E 2 NE 1 NE 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 5 2  
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 900 500 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 13 E 13 E 10 E 7 NE 2 NE 3  
LVORI...........3 4 6 8 10 10  
ADI.............38 8 5 3 1 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..30 10 4 2 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (33700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................8 INCREASING TO 28.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........72 76 78  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 50  
TEMP............68 71 78  
RH..............100 97 82  
20 FT WIND......N 3G5 NE 5G7 NE 6G8  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1200 3100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 7 NE 10 NE 13  
LVORI...........9 5 3  
ADI.............3 15 30  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 11 34  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...RUSNAK  
REQUESTED BY...MIKE DYE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2012289.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 09/07/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL MIKE.DYE@DWR.VIRGINIA.GOV  
 
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