535  
FNUS71 KAKQ 251047  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSHYHOPE...MD FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
647 AM EDT THU APR 25 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON APRIL 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE TODAY
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TODAY, THEN THE  
EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE  
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (22600 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................5 INCREASING TO 24.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........73 76 80 83 84 85 85 85 85 85 86  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30  
TEMP............56 57 60 63 66 68 69 69 69 69 69  
RH..............69 69 62 58 52 51 49 51 51 53 53  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E SE SE E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE E SE SE SE SE SE E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 3 6 8 10 10 10 9 10 10 12  
LVORI...........3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............3 4 7 13 20 21 20 20 21 22 24  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 4 10 18 19 19 19 20 21 23  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (16500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................16 DECREASING TO 7 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........81 77 73 73 74 75 79 83 87 87 88 88  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40  
TEMP............67 65 63 62 61 60 60 59 59 59 59 59  
RH..............56 58 62 67 70 75 78 80 83 87 87 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5  
LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6  
ADI.............20 11 10 9 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 10 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 19  
MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 21 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 29 TO  
36 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (96500 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 13 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 57  
INCREASING TO 73 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 83 DECREASING TO 74 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........88 88 87 87 86 92  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 60 80 80  
TEMP............59 61 67 71 73 73  
RH..............93 90 75 68 62 62  
20 FT WIND......SE 5 S 6 S 8 S 11 S 13 S 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 13 17 19 21  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 1500 2500 3100 3300  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 5 SE 8 S 16 S 26 S 36 S 32  
LVORI...........6 5 3 1 1 1  
ADI.............3 9 26 57 86 80  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 2 20 56 96 91  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...RUSNAK  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS ROBERTSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1907282.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 04/25/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL CHRIS.ROBERTSON@MARYLAND.GOV  
 
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