383
FNUS71 KLWX 100414
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BROAD TOP...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1214 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2020
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR NEW YORK CITY
OR LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE BROAD TOP FIRE.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY, BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING).
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY/WETTING RAINS.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (38800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........33 39 24 27 52 66
WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............10 10 10 20 50 50
TEMP............69 71 76 82 86 85
RH..............84 81 66 55 46 48
20 FT WIND......N 3 N 3 N 4 NE 4 NE 4 E 4
20 FT WIND GUST. 4 5 5 6 5
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 100 1500 3300 4900 6100
MIXNG WIND......N 2 N 2 N 7 N 8 N 8 N 7
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 8 24 32 39
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (24100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........73 80 76 71 60 65
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............50 50 50 50 40 40
TEMP............83 78 75 73 72 71
RH..............55 69 74 76 76 79
20 FT WIND......E 4 SE 4 SW 3 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 4 5 5 6
MIX HGT (FT)....4600 1200 300 100 100 600
MIXNG WIND......W 6 S 5 S 6 SW 5 SW 5 W 10
VRATE KT-FT/100024 5 1 0 0 6
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (16400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........62 48 44 44 51 50
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............40 60 60 60 60 60
TEMP............70 71 76 80 81 81
RH..............78 79 64 52 49 49
20 FT WIND......W 3 W 3 W 4 W 5 W 5 W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1500 2600 4000 5500 7100
MIXNG WIND......NW 17 NW 21 NW 20 NW 16 W 13 W 12
VRATE KT-FT/100016 27 44 55 59 71
FORECASTER...HOFMANN
REQUESTED BY...B. FOLTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2009109.1/LWX
.DELDT 07/10/20
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
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