383  
FNUS71 KLWX 100414  
FWSLWX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BROAD TOP...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
1214 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JULY 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR NEW YORK CITY  
OR LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER NEW ENGLAND  
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM IS  
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE BROAD TOP FIRE.  
 
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
BEGINNING AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY, BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL IN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING).  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY/WETTING RAINS.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (38800 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........33 39 24 27 52 66  
WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
CWR.............10 10 10 20 50 50  
TEMP............69 71 76 82 86 85  
RH..............84 81 66 55 46 48  
20 FT WIND......N 3 N 3 N 4 NE 4 NE 4 E 4  
20 FT WIND GUST. 4 5 5 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 100 1500 3300 4900 6100  
MIXNG WIND......N 2 N 2 N 7 N 8 N 8 N 7  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 8 24 32 39  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (24100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........73 80 76 71 60 65  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
CWR.............50 50 50 50 40 40  
TEMP............83 78 75 73 72 71  
RH..............55 69 74 76 76 79  
20 FT WIND......E 4 SE 4 SW 3 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 4 5 5 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....4600 1200 300 100 100 600  
MIXNG WIND......W 6 S 5 S 6 SW 5 SW 5 W 10  
VRATE KT-FT/100024 5 1 0 0 6  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (16400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........62 48 44 44 51 50  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
CWR.............40 60 60 60 60 60  
TEMP............70 71 76 80 81 81  
RH..............78 79 64 52 49 49  
20 FT WIND......W 3 W 3 W 4 W 5 W 5 W 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1500 2600 4000 5500 7100  
MIXNG WIND......NW 17 NW 21 NW 20 NW 16 W 13 W 12  
VRATE KT-FT/100016 27 44 55 59 71  
 

 
FORECASTER...HOFMANN  
REQUESTED BY...B. FOLTZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2009109.1/LWX  
.DELDT 07/10/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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