828
FXUS61 KLWX 061531
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN
MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MEANDERING FRONT WILL BRING HIGHLY VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES, OCCASIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES, AND NIGHTTIME FOG
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) SUNNY AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL START TO TAKE OVER NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..A MEANDERING FRONT WILL BRING HIGHLY VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES, OCCASIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES, AND NIGHTTIME FOG
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING YET AGAIN, REINFORCING THE CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS FURTHER NORTHEAST WITHIN THE CAD WEDGE,
AND SUNNIER SKIES FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE THEY'VE BROKEN OUT OF
THE WEDGE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS GOING TO BE A SHARP TEMP
GRADIENT, WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F TO THE SOUTH/WEST
AND IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HAS THAT EDGE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE DC
METRO TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THIS MAKES THE TEMP
FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT, WITH A POSSIBLE RANGE OF UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE IMMEDIATE DC AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH ON THE LOCATION
TO EXPLICITLY THROW IT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SATURDAY, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE
US OUR BEST CHANCE OF LIFTING THE WEDGE FRONT NORTHWARD AND
BRINGING 60S AND 70S (TO NEAR 80) TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO,
ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MIGHT BE
NEEDED. DID MAKE A MINOR CHANGE, IN THAT GUIDANCE DID START TO
HINT AT LIFTING THE FRONT OUT LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE HIGHS IN NORTHEAST MD PERHAPS BEING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SO, HAD TO GO AGAINST THE DIURNAL TREND FOR THOSE AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. BUILDING INSTABILITY, MODEST SHEAR, AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO GIVE US A SHOT FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE FRONT SLOWS SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUNNY AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL START TO TAKE OVER
NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION MIDWEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TAKE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY CALM/SUNNY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD,
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
FOR THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY DRIER AIR.
TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS REGION, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD AND MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST SOMETIME
DURING THE MIDWEEK. THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT COULD BRIEFLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING OFF IN THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH
PUSHES THROUGH. BROAD AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD COME OUT OF THIS SYSTEM SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG IS GRADUALLY STARTING TO DISSIPATE, BUT IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. WHILE CIGS MAY LIFT
SLIGHTLY, EXPECT MOSTLY IFR AT BEST TODAY OUTSIDE OF CHO. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
WITH MINIMAL IMPACT COMPARED TO THE CEILINGS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIFR BECOMING LIKELY AGAIN, AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DENSE FOG.
GREATER CHANCE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY BUT NOT GUARANTEED
AT BWI/MTN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH MRB HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH WINDS GENERALLY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STARTING MONDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TERMINALS BETWEEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BOTH THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY LARGELY KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC AND THE BAY
BRIDGE COULD FLIP TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
INCREASING SSW/SW WINDS ON SATURDAY COULD BRING CONDITIONS TO NEAR
SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE COLDER BAY WATERS WITH WARMER AIR
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND LITTLE MIXING OF
WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, BUT REMAIN SUB-SCA LEVEL IN
MAGNITUDE.
5-10 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS (BUT STILL SUB-SCA LEVELS) ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJL/KJP/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/KJP/SRT
MARINE...CJL/KJP/SRT
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