211
FXUS61 KLWX 111945
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING GUSTY WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
IN IT'S WAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS CROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WINDS HAVE
TURNED OUT OF THE NW IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS RESULTING IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS TOPPING 45-50 MPH WHERE THE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT (ALLEGHENIES, DOWNSLOPE AREAS JUST TO
THEIR EAST, AND THE BLUE RIDGE) UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, IT
IS WINDY AND COLD, BUT LESS THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER
EAST, GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH
MOST GUSTS FALLING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT. OVERALL, 1-3" OF SNOW HAS
FALLEN THUS FAR WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED BY THE EXPIRATION OF
THE ADVISORY. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS, NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS DUE TO VERY
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH. SNOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE ALLEGHENIES DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. FURTHER EAST, A MIXTURE OF RAIN, SNOW, AND GRAUPEL
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STILL MIX IN DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND STRONG LIFT/NON- ZERO INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S (TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER POINTS OF THE ALLEGHENIES).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, QUIESCENT WX WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, AND THEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TOMORROW
(30S MOUNTAINS), WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S (LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS) ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN 30S TO NEAR 40 TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IT'S A BIT MORE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND AHEAD. TRACKING MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WHICH LOOK TO CROSS
DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBTLE
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY/TOTALS THIS FAR OUT. ONE THING TO
NOTE IS THAT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO BETTER
PERSPECTIVE AT LEAST FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM
COMPARED TO WEEKEND. STILL PLENTY TO MONITOR HERE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS OUT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
DRAGGING IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OR JUST SIT OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION LIES WITHIN HOW THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE
GFS, ECMWF,ECS,AND GEFS ARE THE AGGRESSORS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHILE THE CANADIAN/UKMET ARE NOT.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AHEAD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
SPREAD EAST. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE ALLEGHENIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW, THE
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW ARE ABOVE 40 PERCENT
(ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES). THESE PROBABILITIES DROP DOWN BETWEEN
10-15 PERCENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS HEADING INTO THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ALOT OF THIS OF COURSE HAS TO DO WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND IT'S INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
EVEN WITH THAT SAID, SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THIS RIGHT NOW IS LESS THAN 30
PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ADDITIONAL
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD. KEEP
TUNED FOR THE CHANGING FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AT
WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONCE
AGAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EAST. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WITH THE FRONT AND MOST ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE TERMINALS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION/SUB- VFR CHANCES ARE LOW. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH SCA GUSTS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. SUB-SCA LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS MAY REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS COULD FOLLOW THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN PROGRESSION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ501-502-509-
510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504-507-
508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
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