571
FXUS61 KLWX 240600
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNAPOLIS.
OTHERWISE, THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- 2) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING (LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A COOL BACKGROUND AIRMASS). AT THE MOMENT, IT IS UNCLEAR
WHICH NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST, ALTHOUGH TONIGHT (SATURDAY
NIGHT) WILL HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE GROWING SEASON FOR 2026 HAS ENDED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS, BUT CONTINUES EAST OF THERE. ANY
HEADLINES FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE ISSUED WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
FOR TONIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD COLD (POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD BRING THE FROST/FREEZE THREAT FOR MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE MAJOR URBAN CENTERS (DOWNTOWN DC/BALTIMORE) AND
IMMEDIATE SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. IF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
VERIFIES, THEN THE GROWING SEASON MAY END FOR MORE AREAS WEST OF
I-95 COME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DOESN'T
CHANGE APPRECIABLY, SO FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
DID NOT MAKE APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS, WHICH ARE NEAR OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WHICH
PERFORMS BEST IN RADIATIONAL COOLING (MOS, NBM 10 PERCENTILE AND
CANADIAN REGIONAL).
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AS
THIS RIDGING TRACKS EAST, A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH PWATS REMAINING LOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ON, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS, WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. A FEW MODELS HINT AT THIS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY NEXT THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF
SUB-VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE NAM AND RELATED GUIDANCE IS BY
FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OUTCOME, BUT IS AN OUTLIER.
E TO SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AGAIN
TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION MAY BE A BIT VARIABLE, RANGING FROM SE
TO NE AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY.
P6SM SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO N/NW TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VARY
A BIT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT AT LIGHT SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY.
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH COULD BRING WIND
GUSTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY SHIFT NORTHERLY TUESDAY, THEN
EASTERLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GENERALLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHEN PAIRED
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON
OCTOBER 26, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD, SO THERE IS
SOME DECREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR WHICH LOCATIONS REACH MINOR
FLOODING IN FORTHCOMING HIGH TIDES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MORE
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS BY MONDAY WHEN FLOW FINALLY
TURNS WESTERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-008-
507-508.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/LFR/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/LFR/SRT
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/LFR/SRT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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