314
FXUS61 KLWX 251900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. SHOWERS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, AFFECTING THE APPALACHIANS AND I-81
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNDOWN, AND AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEARBY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A
CANADIAN LOW ARE EXPECTED MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEARBY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE CURRENT FRONTAL ANALYSIS PLACES A BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
CUMBERLAND MD TO SCOTTSVILLE VA, WITH ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING FRONT
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH AN EXPANSIVE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
ADDITIONAL TROUGHING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SANDWICHED
IN BETWEEN THESE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS A COLLAPSING
MID/UPPER RIDGE.
THE 12Z HREF SOLUTION FAVORS PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO MUCH
OF THE NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
SITS NEAR I-64 AND UP THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY, THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH/EAST WILL BE MORE STABLE OWING TO THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. AS SUCH, THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS (WIDELY SCATTERED)
ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OWING TO
THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THICKENING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S WHICH SETS THE STAGES FOR A CHILLY SUNDAY.
SOME MORNING SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
COMES WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S WHICH IS WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND SOME TO
START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW ARE EXPECTED MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO MAKE WAY FOR A DEEP UPPER CANADIAN
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN A
COLD FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A WARM SHORTWAVE BEFOREHAND WILL BRIEFLY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S/UP TO 70 ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SETTLING IN THE 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO GET BELOW FREEZING, BUT HIGH-ELEVATION AREAS OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES MAY SEE NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN MID-TO-LOW 30S LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES;
THE SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR THE REGION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. OVERALL, ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO
SPRINGTIME NORMALS WITH MILD TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND REGULAR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AND LOWER HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH IFR LIKELY BY 23-24Z. THIS COMES WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS (GENERALLY AFTER 20Z OR SO FOR THE METROS, ONGOING AT
KCHO/KMRB). RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AND AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO KCHO WHICH IS NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 20-21Z TO COVER THIS
THREAT WHEN THUNDER IS MOST LIKELY.
AS RAIN SLOWLY WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS LIKELY FURTHER
LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
DAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE GRADUAL IN NATURE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES
AS INITIAL EASTERLIES GIVE WAY TO NORTHEASTERLIES ON SUNDAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE SOUTH,
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY ACROSS TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY, AS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS INCREASING UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
OFFSHORE.
MARINE
A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. EASTERLY WINDS
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO NORTHEASTERLIES ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE, SOME 25 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS. WINDS TURN
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC AND NEW BRUNSWICK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. WINDS EVENTUALLY DECREASE TO BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN AT SUB-SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY RANGING 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING; SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY BY THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, BRINGING WINDS UP TO 15-
20 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
DELMARVA HAS CAUSED INCREASED TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION
STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANNAPOLIS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/BRO/DHOF
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