849
FXUS61 KLWX 160654
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WARMING TREND
BEGINS TODAY WITH A SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR T-STORM. NEAR RECORD
BREAKING HEAT NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT. 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE OVERALL
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR A FRONT OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SEVERAL PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY INITIATING THE DAILY CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. 00Z HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-15 THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE METROS THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF
ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED OUT AROUND THE MID- MS RIVER VALLEY PUSHES
EAST. 00Z CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A SIMILAR SETUP FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON AN MCV TYPE OF FEATURE PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL WV TOWARD NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOMETHING THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
PUSHING TOWARD 90 DEGREES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS
(MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE). AS OF NOW, HEAT
HEADLINES DUE NOT APPEAR LIKELY ALTHOUGH RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF NEXT 7 AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MIDWEEK. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE THREAT IS REMAINS LOW, BUT
NOT ZERO MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. ONE OR TWO STRONG
T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH NO DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM
TO POINT TO. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD LAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER LATE
WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH INCREASED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL HELP DRIVE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. WITH
THAT SAID, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHER GIVEN THE
INGREDIENTS ABOVE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. SPC CONTINUES TO GIVE US AN HONORABLE MENTION FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
ALIGNS WITH CSU LEARNING MACHINE PROBABILITIES, NSSL PROBS, AND CIPS
PROBS DURING THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE.
CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATING ALONG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEARBY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTRIBUTING A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO UPPER 80S AND MID 90S WITH 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THESE VALUES TAKE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S.
LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LOWER DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING GIVING WAY TO INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TOUCH OFF A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST
OF KMRB/KHGR/KFDK LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-23Z BEFORE
WEAKENING FURTHER EAST TOWARD KIAD, KDCA, AND KBWI BETWEEN 00-04Z.
DID OPT FOR PROB30S AT KMRB, KIAD, AND KBWI WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, BUT MAY NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED FOR KDCA PENDING MODEL TRENDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GUSTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED T-STORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY (I.E MRB, HGR, FDK, IAD, DCA, BWI) THAT COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY
REDUCED CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW
ON COVERAGE OF T-STORMS WITH SOME FOCUS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT WESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL T-STORM CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY AT MRB AND TERMINALS POINTS WEST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SPAWN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD QUICKLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
MVFR AND IFR IN MULTIPLE PERIODS OF TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK ONCE THE FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, BECOMING
QUITE GUSTY WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THEN SHIFTING OVERALL
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC LATER THIS MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO SCA LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN CHANNELING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN CHESAPEAKE BAY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS.
WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY,
GUSTING OVER 40 KNOTS IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE MAY 18-20,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***MONDAY, MAY 18TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1877) 72F (2015)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 91F (1987)! 68F (2015)!
BALTIMORE (BWI) 97F (1962) 70F (2017)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 97F (1962) 75F (2017)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 96F (1911) 66F (2015)!
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 95F (1962)+ 73F (1911)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 95F (1962)+ 69F (1953)+!
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 93F (1962) 71F (2017)
***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+!
BALTIMORE (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)!
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)!
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+!
***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...KLW/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST
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