922  
FXUS61 KLWX 071426  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
1026 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A  
STRONG, PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
10:30 AM UPDATE: OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN  
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE  
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE MIDDLE OF  
THE FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED  
WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TODAY. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LOOKS  
LACK LUSTER AT THIS POINT, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN  
DECREASED WITH THE MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK. ANY SEVERE THREAT  
LIKELY RESIDES OVER CENTRAL VA INTO SOUTHERN MD AT MOST, AND  
EVEN THAT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE TODAY DUE TO A LACK  
OF UPPER FORCING OVER OUR REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES  
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR A  
MAIN HAZARD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST (70S  
FOR THE MOUNTAINS) FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS THE INITIAL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG ON FRIDAY, IT WILL LIKELY  
START TO BE PUSHED ALONG BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE  
POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GIVEN  
SOME OF THE RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE  
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, FLOODING IS STARTING TO  
BECOME A REAL CONCERN. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH  
EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS THOUGH GIVEN ONGOING MCS'S POTENTIALLY  
MOVING INTO THE AREA OR NEARBY. LOTS OF MOVING PARTS TO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN BRINGS IN A REMNANT MCV INTO  
THE REGION AND TRIES TO SPIN UP A LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON MUCH  
INSTABILITY OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, BUT SHOULD THIS  
OCCUR AT THE RIGHT TIME (PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE DAY SATURDAY), WE  
COULD BE LOOKING AT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS WELL. AGAIN,  
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT SOME GUIDANCE HAS A CONDITIONAL  
TORNADO THREAT ON SATURDAY SHOULD THAT ABOVE SCENARIO PLAY OUT,  
SO IT IS SOMETHING WE ARE WATCHING. FOR NOW, NOW OUTLOOK FROM  
SPC, BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THAT WITH THE OVERNIGHT UPDATE  
SHOULD THAT TREND CONTINUE. FOR NOW THOUGH, GIVEN THE  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH ANY SLOWER MOVING, TRAINING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE  
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC'S EXCESSIVE  
OUTLOOKS IN THE D2 AND D3 PERIODS. MAY BE LOOKING TO COLLABORATE  
SOME CHANGES THERE IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN  
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOPING FOR SOME MORE DETAILS  
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR  
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, GUIDANCE MAY  
BE OVERDOING HIGHS FOR FRIDAY A BIT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE  
CLOUD COVER THAN SOME ARE HINTING AT BUT DO EXPECT UPPER 70S TO  
LOW 80S FOR BOTH DAYS AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO  
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
DRY WEATHER LIKELY PERSISTS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL  
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THIS LENDS TO THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FOLLOWING TWO  
DAYS AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS NEARBY. AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES  
THE PRIMARY FRONT OUT, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.  
 
MAINLY VFR SUN-MON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
10:30 AM UPDATE: ONLY A MINOR CHANGE THIS MORNING AS WINDS WERE  
A BIT GUSTIER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAD TO ADD A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. LOTS OF GUSTS IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE,  
WITH LIKELY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH FEW OBS.  
LIKELY WON'T HAVE TO EXTEND, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.  
 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ERRATIC THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS OVERHEAD. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A WATERSPOUT ARE POSSIBLE  
WITH AND THUNDERSTORMS - THE LIKELIHOOD OF WHICH WILL LINGER  
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE  
POTOMAC RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD  
FRONT LINGERS NEARBY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF  
AN SMW BEING ISSUED.  
 
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN N FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY,  
THEN IN S FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-  
537>543.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ADM  
NEAR TERM...CJL/ADM  
SHORT TERM...CJL/ADM  
LONG TERM...DHOF  
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/ADM  
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/ADM  
 
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