033
FXUS61 KLWX 060537
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
137 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FROST IS EXPECTED IN THE ALLEGHENIES THIS MORNING. QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
- 2) RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN
POTENTIALLY LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FROST IS EXPECTED IN THE ALLEGHENIES THIS
MORNING. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES THIS
MORNING YIELDING CALM WINDS AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING/FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LOCALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TODAY, AND THEN MOVE JUST OFFSHORE WED. TODAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, BUT WITH THE HIGH A BIT
FURTHER EAST, LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE TO DECOUPLE. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS WARM A BIT ON WED IN S'LY FLOW,
WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON THU WHICH
USHERS IN THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LIKE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE A DRY ONE. THUS, THE PEAK IN
WARMTH DURING THE PERIOD IS LIKELY ON THU WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DICTATED AT LEAST IN PART TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SYNOPTICALLY, A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO START THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS. RIDGING PIVOTING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO STEM FROM THE DEPTH AND FORWARD SPEED OF LOW
PRESSURE AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST, WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
IT NAVIGATES AROUND THE AREAS OF RIDGING.
AT THIS JUNCTURE, SEVERAL SCENARIOS APPEAR POSSIBLE:
(1) QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE OF THE GULF COAST, AND
THREADS THE NEEDLE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, DELIVERING NOTABLY
HIGHER RAIN POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS LOCALLY.
(2) A VERY QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORCED TO MAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN SOONER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF SW ATLANTIC RIDGING EXITING THE COAST. THIS WOULD KEEP A
MAJORITY OF MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH, THOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD STILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG A PASSING FRONT.
(3) A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORCED TO MAKE THAT
EASTWARD TURN SOONER, BLOCKED IN THIS SCENARIO BY THE SECOND AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDING IN BEFORE IT CAN TREK
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
(4) A VERY SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD NOT ONLY GET
CAUGHT BENEATH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT COULD
THEN REMAIN CUTOFF FROM THE LARGE SCALE STEERING PATTERN. THIS WOULD
LEAVE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING SOMEWHERE WELL TO OUR SOUTH FOR A
TIME, BEFORE AN UNCERTAIN EXIT BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE MOMENT, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
EXHIBITS VERY LARGE SPREAD, FALLING INTO (BUT NOT NECESSARILY
FAVORING) ANY ONE OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY TREND COOLER OR STAY
RELATIVELY STEADY, BUT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER OR ANY PRECIP (OR LACK THEREOF).
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH WED.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN TURN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WED.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THU, THOUGH A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH.
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IF AND WHEN RAIN APPROACHES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED WITH W/NW WINDS THU
BRIEFLY BECOMING S FRI BEFORE RETURNING TO THE N/NW FRI NIGHT.
MARINE
SCAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY DAYBREAK. N'LY WINDS DECREASE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY, AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN TURN OUT OF THE S ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK/DRY FRONT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT,
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES REMAIN ELEVATED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SITES
REACHING ACTION STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CPB
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