742
FXUS61 KLWX 171439 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH LATE IN
THE WEEK, THOUGH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CONTINUED BLUSTERY TODAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IMPACTING NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MD SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ABATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PREVIOUS AFD...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO/NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, A LINGERING GRADIENT AND CAA WITH
INCREASED DIURNAL MIXING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, THOUGH
NOT AS BREEZY AS SUNDAY. WINDS LIKELY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL BECOME NOTABLY LIGHTER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR,
AND WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED. MAY NEED TO REVISIT TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. THIS COULD HAVE
PTYPE IMPLICATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM NEAR ST. LOUIS MO TO OFF THE VA COAST. WAA
PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN WV AND
WESTERN MD BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD/EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. DEPENDING
ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES, SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (AND ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP MOVES IN QUICKER)
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES FREEZING RAIN AS
THE DOMINANT PTYPE, BUT AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY
FAVOR SLEET/PELLETS OR BRIEF SNOW VS. FREEZING RAIN. STILL,
SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN MIXES IN WET
SNOWFLAKES OR PELLETS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE US-50
AND US-15 CORRIDORS, THOUGH ANY IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIP SEEMS
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEDGED IN LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AS ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE NORTH, AND A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
CALL FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S (HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
AREAS ALONG THE MD/PA LINE) TO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL VA.
HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENCE
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR, THESE TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP, EXPECT MORE CLOUDS
AND SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. SOME ENSEMBLES AND GUIDANCE HAVE
THIS ERODING EARLY OR THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THEY TEND TO DO THIS
TOO QUICKLY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD, AND MAY
CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN THE WEDGING PATTERN.
BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT, CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EMERGES IN HOW MODELS
HANDLE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND AN ULL MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. HOW THESE FEATURES
INTERACT AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WILL NOT ONLY DETERMINE PRECIP
CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES AS WELL. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS, AND HOPEFULLY IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR
IN THE NEXT FEW CYCLES. ASSUMING A LOW PASSES TO THE WEST, THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY. PRECIP DOES APPEAR TO BE ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE AM FOR MOST TAF SITES,
THOUGH MVFR COULD ENCROACH ON MRB BY LATE TUE AM. W/NW WINDS
GUST 20-30 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST THEN SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUE PM WITH RAIN AS THE
PTYPE, THOUGH CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES OUR PELLETS
NEAR MRB AT ONSET. THE 00Z NAM12 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
THAT IT BRINGS SNOW FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT ONSET ALL THE WAY INTO
THE METROS TUE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN VERY
MARGINAL TEMP PROFILES THAT FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
IFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND LINGER INTO WED AS A WEDGE
TYPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. SUB-VFR MAY PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT
AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO LIGHT OUT OF THE N/NE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
THU-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE FLOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO POSSIBLE DRIZZLE, WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MARINE
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS COMMON. A FEW ROGUE GALE-FORCE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BUT PERSISTENT GALE CONDITIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL READILY
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD/NORTH OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH WEAK GRADIENTS,
VARYING FROM SW/S TUESDAY TO N/NE WEDNESDAY.
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY WITH WEDGED HIGH
PRESSURE. FOR FRIDAY, IF A WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY, SCA CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BE A BIT DRIER BUT ALSO A BIT LESS WINDY. HOWEVER,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS
RH FALLS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT (30-35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF MD EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 MPH. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS
NORTHERN MD. ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, RH LIKELY
STAYS AROUND 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AS RH REBOUNDS TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...LFR/CPB
MARINE...LFR/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...LFR
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