498
FXUS61 KLWX 241934
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
334 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE KEY MESSAGES TO FOCUS MORE ON
STORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO SATURDAY, AND ALSO ON THE BUILDING
HEAT NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
- 2) HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MOVE ACROSS INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MD INTO EASTERN WV BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER THURSDAY EVENING/MIGHT,
AS SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HOWEVER, THINK THIS THREAT
WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE AS
THE SUN SETS.
BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY
IT DROPS SOUTH IS STILL SOMEWHAT UP FOR DEBATE. WITH THE PRIMARY
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR NORTH, THINKING THAT THE FRONT IS
REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET SOUTH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHERE THERE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 500 TO 750 J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT, DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL YOU LOOK AT. WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER, THINK A FEW STORMS COULD BRING THAT WIND DOWN,
AND PERHAPS YOU COULD GET A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T SCREAM SEVERE WEATHER, BUT COULDN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. PWATS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DECENT, BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JUNE, REACHING THE 1.6-1.8" RANGE. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES ARE LIKELY IN SOME STORMS, BUT THINKING MOST DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BECOME COLD-POOL DOMINANT RATHER QUICKLY, RESULTING IN
VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS. LOOKING AT LATEST QPF
GUIDANCE, COULD SEE SOME AREAS PICKING UP AN INCH, PERHAPS TWO,
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SATURDAY IS GOING TO
BE VERY TRICKY. THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT THAT DEPENDS ON WHERE
THE FRONT HANGS UP FRIDAY, AND WHERE SUBSEQUENT STORMS DEVELOP
FRIDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST AREA, WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH, PERHAPS
THAT THREAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. AT ANY RATE,
CARRYING LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THINK THERE IS STILL A PRETTY GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO WHEN IT RAINS AND EXACTLY WHERE EACH
DAY. THE FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TWO-DAY COMPLETE WASHOUT
AT THIS POINT, BUT WE'LL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
FRIDAY TO START TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR HOW THINGS WILL GO ON
SATURDAY. IN SHORT, IT IS A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION, SO
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE GET TO LOOK
AT MORE DATA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR CLOUDS SHOULD IMPROVE ON SUNDAY, WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AT THIS POINT, AND WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, EXPECT INCREASINGLY HOT & HUMID
CONDITIONS AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID-TO-
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
BEGINNING MIDWEEK, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING
NORTH AROUND THIS PERIOD, TEMPERATURES COULD FURTHER INCREASE AS
RIDGING TO THE WEST BUILDS OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BACK TO THE
SOUTH THURSDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY AT KCHO AND KMRB, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY & MONDAY ACROSS
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVELS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, BUT QUICKLY PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTH. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER POTOMAC ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING.
WINDS DROP BACK BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSITION NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SMWS EACH AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME BASED UPON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE FEATURES.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY & MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHIFT EASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY LATER
THAT EVENING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>532-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT
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