574
FXUS61 KLWX 220739
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNING
FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IT'S A QUIET START OUTSIDE OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS MORNING.
A DECENT SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES AMONGST THE RIDGES/URBAN CENTERS AND
SHELTERED VALLEYS. MOST OF US ARE WAKING UP IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN 30S AND 40S. THE INVERSION SHOULD QUICKLY MIX
OUT AFTER SUNRISE LEADING TO QUICK RECOVERIES IN TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
AFTER A CHILLY START, IT'S ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON AHEAD AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLING
OVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING 12 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SKIES WILL STAY
PREDOMINANTLY CLOUD-LESS WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE BAY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO VARIABLE TO START BEFORE SWITCHING
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A SLIGHT BOOST
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THAT SAID, THE AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT SHOULD NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD CONCERN GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE REGION. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FROM
THE 40S AND 50S (SHELTERED VALLEYS UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S) THIS
MORNING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCALES THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY FALL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL NOT LOOKING AS
COOL AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S. LOW-LYING RIVER AND MOUNTAINS VALLEYS COULD SEE A
FEW UPPER 30S AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY IS A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE THE 500 MB RIDGE STARTS
TO FLATTEN AND INCUMBENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, LIES A PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING PER THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. THE FRONT
ITSELF LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SPOTTY SHOWER OR
TOO ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. OVERALL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30
TO 45 KTS YIELDING GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY DAYS,
EXCESS LEAF LITTER ON THE GROUND, AND UPTICK IN WINDS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AREAWIDE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST LATE YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TAKE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DIVE
THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FUNNELS IN. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID
60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S IN THE WEST AND 40S IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. IT TURNS NOTICEABLY COOLER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE MONDAY ALLOWING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. OUTSIDE OF SOME SHALLOW
PATCHY FOG AT KMRB AND KHGR CLOUD-LESS SKIES LOOK TO PREVAIL TODAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (SPEEDS 5 TO 7 KTS) OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL VARIABILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WATER, GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, AFTERNOON BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY COULD CARRY GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO A SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND OVERNIGHT GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO SHARP PRESSURE RISES AND INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING A WIND SHIFT.
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT KMRB ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY (10-15 KTS GUSTS) WITH WINDS
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY WITH GUSTY (15-25 KTS)
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATER.S WINDS DIMINISH BACK
BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
PROLONGED DRYNESS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND EXCESS LEAF LITTER
HAVE LED TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THE ONE THING THAT IS THANKFULLY MISSING IS THE WIND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MINIMUM RH MAY DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RECOVER TO 70 TO
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON THE RIDGES).
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH A GENERAL PREVAILING
DIRECTION OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE MIDWEEK GIVEN LIMITED RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST, WARMER
TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING WINDS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT ALBEIT WEAK AND DRY WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL A BACK INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THIS TIME. WINDS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
THE CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN APPEAR QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE LOWERED INTO THE 0 TO 0.25 FOOT RANGE WHICH
KEEP MOST SITES BELOW ANY ACTIONABLE STAGES. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS
WOULD BE ANNAPOLIS AND STRAIT'S POINT THAT COULD NEAR ACTION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF EVENING HIGH TIDES. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME UP A BIT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR ANY TIDAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
FIRE WEATHER...EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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