063
FXUS61 KLWX 232328
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
728 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DESPITE A
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER DAMP AND COOL NIGHT AHEAD. TURNING DRIER WHILE
REMAINING BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- 2) REMAINING BREEZY WHILE TURNING WARMER THIS WEEKEND DESPITE
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO IMPACTS FROM COASTAL NOR'EASTER NEARBY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOTHER DAMP AND COOL NIGHT AHEAD. TURNING DRIER
WHILE REMAINING BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME BREAKS WERE ALREADY VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE FROM NORTHERN VA POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS THE
DRIER AIR ERODES THE WEDGE. STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE
DELMARVA/NC COAST BEFORE RIDING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE NOR'EASTER TAKES SHAPE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, EXPECT POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWN INTO CENTRAL
VA. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S (MID 40S MOUNTAINS). WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-30 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CLEARING
FRIDAY AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO THE REGION. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LEADING TO
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE OPEN AND MIDDLE
WATERS AS WELL AS OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY ALONG THE WATERS AND TOWARD THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS NOR'EASTER IMPACTS NORTHEAST U.S.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE (BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS)
FINALLY WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LI. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER. A FEW
MEMBERS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NJ /
DELMARVA COAST THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF EXACT POSITION, WE ARE
LIKELY TO BE ON THE DRIER (SUBSIDENCE) SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN BREEZY, WARMER, AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. IF THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS. SAFE TO SAY THAT
THERE ISN'T A DEFINITE TREND FOR THIS WEEKEND, SO BE SURE TO KEEP
TRACK OF THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE NOR'EASTER IS EVENTUALLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MARKING THE RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
TERMINALS NORTH OF CHO. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL YIELD DRIER AIR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES PRIOR 00-03Z/8-11PM. A LEFTOVER SHOWER/SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT CHO/SHD POINTS WEST THROUGH THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED
TIME ABOVE. FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT.
POCKETS OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH VFR THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE NORTH COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER
OFF THE COAST WILL YIELD EVEN MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30
KTS. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SOME TAPERING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
A STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO NJ
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS WEEKEND (GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE). SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF BWI/MTN, BUT
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE GETS
TO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS. OVERALL
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TAPER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY PULLS
AWAY.
MARINE
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SURROUNDING WATERS AROUND SOUTHERN MD
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE NEEDED IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY.
HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS TO GALES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DUE TO THE STRONG
NOR'EASTER THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO
OUR AREA, EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SO BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITHIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ST. MARY'S AND ANNAPOLIS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AT ALEXANDRIA, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IS FOLLOWED WITH A HIGH END COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT DAHLGREN AND
SOLOMONS ISLAND, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES EXTEND THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOMALIES WILL BE LOWER FURTHER NORTH ON THE BAY, BUT WE'LL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON BALTIMORE AND HAVRE DE GRACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
AS WELL AS DC ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. DECISIONS WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REGARDING WHETHER ANY
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
536-538>540.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
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