329
FXUS61 KLWX 180744
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WATERS, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FROST AND FREEZE
CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- 2) POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER LURKS OFFSHORE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FROST AND FREEZE
CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND EAST OF FREEZE WARNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 30S
TO MID 40S. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANY HEADLINES DECISIONS WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL IT IS DETERMINED WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES
AFTER THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER LURKS OFFSHORE.
PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG OR EAST OF I-95, A DEVELOPING
NOR'EASTER OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST GUIDES WEATHER CONDITIONS
LATE NEXT WEEK. EAST OF I-95, SCATTERED SHOWER POTENTIAL, WIND
STRENGTH, AND COASTAL FLOOD RISK ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS NOR-EASTER TRACKS, LOCATIONS
FURTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN
MOUNTAIN RANGES, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY IN PART DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WEST OF THESE MOUNTAIN RANGES. DAILY DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD REACHING INTO MID TO UPPER 60S (50S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS). COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETUP AND A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK
GENERALLY LEADS TO UNCERTAIN BUT WEAKER SYSTEMS. CURRENT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT MODERATE SPREAD WHEN IT COMES TO THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW AND TIMING AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST. ON MONDAY, A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS NOR'EASTER CRAWLS
NORTHWARD, REMAINING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
MOST AT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST
SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS NOR'EASTER WELL OFF SHORE, MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. SOME GUIDANCE MEANDERS THE LOW
TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXCLUSIVELY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS FOR ANY MARINE AND COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS, SEE THE CORRESPONDING DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY,
GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AMONGST ALL TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR MAINLY TO THE EAST,
POTENTIALLY INCLUDING BWI, DCA, AND MTN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ZDC AIRSPACE WITH THE NOR'EASTER LURKING
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WATERS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS. ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WITH SCA CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE OPEN
PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST DELIVERS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. OVER
THE WIDER, CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY, GALE CONDTIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY
THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR GALES BASED UPON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH PROJECTED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-
20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDES BEGIN SNAPPING BACK TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
SLACKEN. A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
LEAD TO TIDAL ANOMALIES RISING MORE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS (I.E. ANNAPOLIS) WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW EXACTLY THIS NOR'EASTER WILL TRACK
AND SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT THE TIDE LEVELS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-501-
502-507-509-510.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ503-505.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
503>505-507-508.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-050-
051-501-502-506-526.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-
531-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532-
537-540>542.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-534-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ536.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KVH/ADS
AVIATION...AVS/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KVH
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