955
FXUS61 KLWX 310737
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
UPDATE. MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS SEEM TO BE FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE WINDS OFF AND ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TODAY.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY OUT OF THE NW, GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY
BY LATE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE ENSUING DEW
POINT ADVECTION WILL HELP HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY, WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A
WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE
DRY, AS ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE
APPRECIABLY FROM SUNDAY.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, ROTATING AROUND
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST, WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS, PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY, SO IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH GOING, BUT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT COULD AT LEAST GET SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING
IN THAT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN ONLY REACH THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK,
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH LITTLE TO NOTE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES START TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS TIME,
PUSHING BACK TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SEVERE RISK
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES ARE
LIGHTING UP AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH (SUCH AS CSU MACHINE
LEARNING PROBABILITIES AND NCAR'S MEDIUM-RANGE AI CONVECTIVE HAZARDS
FORECAST). THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THAT
IT IS A WEEK OUT, BUT IT DOES HINT THAT THIS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WITHIN THE REGION.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH WINDS GENERALLY FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
MAY CREATE BRIEF REDUCTIONS AT TERMINALS MAINLY WEST OF MRB TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. CHANNELING COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT, SO HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE
LOWER BAY WATERS AS A RESULT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, TURNING WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
THE CURRENT FRONT, SO SCAS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER WATERS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS
WILL DEPEND ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN AREA OF WOBBLING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND INCOMING HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING OVER THE WIDER WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SURGE IN WATER LEVELS
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANNAPOLIS MAY EVEN APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS STAGE, BUT MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LOWER WATER LEVELS MONDAY, BUT THEY
MIGHT RISE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT
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