733
FXUS61 KLWX 151924
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TODAY AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
CAPTURE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE BOLSTERED
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS DUE TO SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS. OTHERWISE, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOMS ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH THE USUAL
CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES AT 3 DAYS OUT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY, ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) DRY START TO THE WEEK BEFORE TURNING WARMER WITH SHOWERS BY
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MUCH BROADER UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN FACT, THIS LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY BREAK ALL-TIME MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDS FOR
THE MONTH OF JUNE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST SOLUTIONS
HAVE THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT AROUND
985-990 HPA ON THURSDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW, AS 850 HPA WINDS CLIMB TO
AROUND 30-50 KNOTS AND 500 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS. LOW-LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS NORTH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHILE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS
OVERLAP OF A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WINDS
ALOFT RAISES CONCERNS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY ON THURSDAY.
IT'S STILL TO EARLY TO GET INTO THE FINER SCALE DETAILS, BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY, POTENTIALLY
GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH EVEN IN CLEAR AIR. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND BACKGROUND WINDS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WE DON'T EXPERIENCE
OFTEN HERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, ADVECTING
A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY START TO THE WEEK BEFORE TURNING WARMER WITH
SHOWERS BY MID-WEEK.
BEHIND A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT, THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK COMES WITH COOLER WEATHER, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LOCAL OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY
FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (60S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCALES),
WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD STRATOCUMULUS DECK. THEIR RATHER
EXPANSIVE NATURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED HEATING WHICH IS SUPPORTING
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. ACROSS GARRETT COUNTY, SOME VERY WEAK
RADAR RETURNS ARE EVIDENT WHICH IS LIKELY COMPRISED OF SPOTTY
SPRINKLES. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, OCCASIONAL
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER DARK. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING SHUTS OFF, EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT AHEAD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S,
WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE STICKS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WHICH FAVORS
ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. BESIDES
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, EXPECT A
GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS NEARING 80 DEGREES, WITH MID
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS SETS UP FOR A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MID-
WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT TO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95. IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS, A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AS
MENTIONED, HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH
READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S (70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS). AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER, SOME SHOWERS MIGHT PUSH INTO WESTERN
MARYLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COMES WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT LOOKING
LIKELY. FOR THE WINDS, NORTHWESTERLIES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE NIGHT. AN EVENTUAL RETURN
TO SOUTHWESTERLIES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BACKGROUND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, AND COULD
GUST TO IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM
THIS EVENING. AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TURN OVER TO
NORTHERLY, SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WIDER
WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MID-
EVENING TO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRADIENTS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY SUPPORT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
AT LEAST SCAS APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND
GALES MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE. SMWS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY NEARING LOW-
END SCA LEVELS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE
LOWERED TO AROUND 0 TO 0.5 FEET. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REPRIEVE
FROM ANY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. ANOTHER RAMP UP OCCURS BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD CARRY ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AGAIN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
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