550
FXUS61 KLWX 140303
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1103 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED TO THE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. GARRETT AND WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY, BRINGING STRONG
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MID ATLANTIC SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY STRONG, ALONG
WITH NOTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (THOUGH MORE SPEED THAN
DIRECTION). DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE COULD BE ONE
OF THE PRIMARY FACTORS INTO JUST HOW SIGNIFICANT THE SEVERE WEATHER
IS. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR SOME LEADING CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR WHICH COULD POSE A WIND AND TORNADO RISK. THEN, A
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHARP COLD FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS, SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THE SQUALL LINE. A QLCS TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO BE PRESENT,
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE LINE VS. THE
MORE FAVORABLE PERPENDICULAR. SEASONALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN, ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMING ARE
PROJECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SOMEWHAT
RARE 30 PERCENT DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR THIS AREA. BESIDES THE
CONVECTIVE WINDS, GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
TREE DAMAGE AND/OR COMPLICATE RECOVERY EFFORTS. COLD AIR WILL BE
RUSHING IN IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT A MINIMUM,
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A TIME IN UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF ANY POSTFRONTAL PRECIP LINGERS
TO THE EAST LONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER.
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
STRETCH WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GARRETT AND WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AS SEVERAL SITES TO THE NORTH IN PA
GUSTED TO WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
MOVED THROUGH. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WERE
ALSO NOTED FURTHER EAST AS WINDS SHIFTED TO OUT OF THE WEST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB,
WHERE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OUT OF THE WEST. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL
GRADIENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. TIGHT GRADIENTS PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY, AND WESTERLY WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALE-FORCE LEVELS.
WINDS DIMINISH GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCAS MAY BE NEEDED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST WINDS GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS.
EITHER HIGH END SCA OR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS IN GRADIENT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A SHARP
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE CONVECTION,
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE, WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
SCA CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHTER WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY REGION WIDE, BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM TONIGHT. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO FRIDAY,
BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 66 CORRIDOR, WHERE 20-35 MPH WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED.
GUSTY WINDS BUT INCREASING RHS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING WETTING RAINS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT SUNDAY, BUT ANY ONGOING FIRES COULD FEEL
THE IMPACTS OF SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (20-30 MPH GUSTS).
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY BEFORE STRONG WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ533>537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KJP
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page