031
FXUS61 KLWX 210100
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, SETTLING OVERHEAD AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR AND CHILLY TONIGHT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE AREAS OF FROST ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, THESE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON ENDED LAST WEEK, SO NO HEADLINES WERE NEEDED TONIGHT AS A
RESULT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WARMER TUESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. NEXT UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EAST DURING THE EVENING. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA AFTER 06Z
WED WITH PRECIP ENDING. HOWEVER, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MARGINAL COLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX
IN WITH THE RAIN WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRYING CONDITIONS BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE THE STORY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST FREQUENTLY 15 TO 20 MPH
AND PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE WEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOWER AS WELL. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK POTENTIALLY. IT WOULD BASICALLY DEPEND ON THE FUEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS WELL, ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL
HAVE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN PLACES IN THE WEST AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING ANY FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, EVEN THOUGH THE RISK SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THURSDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DIRECTION OF
A DEVELOPING POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
MODELS PUSH THIS LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WHILE OTHERS HAVE
A MORE SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD SPREAD SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE
WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH MOST SITES
AOB 8 KNOTS. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IN
SPEED DURING DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 KNOTS THURSDAY, DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, THEN TURN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AND
INCREASE TO 25 KT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS, AND WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES SEEM MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. NO MARINE HAZARDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SNAP-BACK EVENT COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE AT ANNAPOLIS TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN WESTERLY
LATE TUE NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ531>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/CJL
SHORT TERM...LFR/CJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/CJL
MARINE...LFR/KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
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