103
FXUS61 KLWX 120142
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ADDED FOR BOWLEYS QUARTERS AND
HAVRE DE GRACE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED, BUT WE ARE STILL MONITORING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) REMNANTS OF ISAIAS BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN A LATE-
WEEK COLD FRONT BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMNANTS OF ISAIAS BRING RAIN, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW IS BECOMING DOMINANT AS IT MOVES TOWARD
SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING. THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED STAGNANT AND REALLY HASN'T MADE ANY PROGRESS
NORTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THIS SECTOR HAS THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER. CONVECTION ALONG
THE OCCLUDED FRONT HASN'T BEEN VERY ROBUST, AND COMBINED WITH
THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, IT APPEARS THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, EVEN TO THE
WEST WHERE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE LOWER. THUS
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A GREATER ISSUE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT 850 MB CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME NEARLY STATIONARY
BANDS AS WELL NEAR THE ALLEGHENIES. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. WITH THAT SAID, THE FOCUS MAY BE
SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS LARGELY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW.
UNTIL THIS FULLY CLEARS THE REGION, EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
STRATUS AND SHOWER CHANCES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
ANY CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE LARGELY WILL WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY
MONDAY/COLUMBUS DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK,
THEN A LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AFTER AN ACTIVE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND, SUBSEQUENT DAYS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IN
PARTICULAR, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CARRY THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO THE LOW 80S. THERE ARE EVEN HINTS THAT SOME MID 80S
ARE POSSIBLE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS 850-MB TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE TO AROUND 16 TO 18C. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING OF HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE OFFSHORE PASSAGE OF
ISAIAS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING DRY COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
GENERALLY MILD DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY, DRY AIR AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY LIMIT
OVERALL SPREAD & DURATION.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL CANADIAN
TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST
COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF & RELATED ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY HAS THE LOW
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY, WHEREAS THE GFS/GEFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER DIGGING TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING IT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE
OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY UNCERTAIN REGARDING
ANY PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH A GENERAL COOLING TREND CAN LIKELY BE
EXPECTED AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
REGION, IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
THIS ALSO COMES WITH PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS RAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE, THE THREAT SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE TAFS.
LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND COULD EVEN LOWER TO LIFR.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK, SO CEILINGS MAY START LIFTING BY THAT TIME. THE RISK
FOR RAIN WILL ALSO END AROUND THIS TIME, SO CONDITIONS SHOULD
STEADILY IMPROVE, REACHING VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
A DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH MAINLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. WINDS GUST UP TO 20-25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE CROSSING THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS UNTIL THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN DECREASING, THERE IS STILL
A NONZERO THREAT OF GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS OR A WATERSPOUT NEAR
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. AFTER THAT TIME, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS AT 2 AM. AROUND DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS UP TO
30 KT, ESPECIALLY ON THE WIDER MID BAY WATERS. THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START
SUBSIDING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES, BUT THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO
CRITERIA.
WINDS COULD FLUCTUATE IN & OUT OF SCA CRITERIA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING WINDS UP ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD CURRENT GUIDANCE PERSIST.
WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SOUTHERLY
ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN BAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS APPROACH. THIS NECESSITATED NEW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES, MAINLY FOR BOWLEYS QUARTERS AND HAVRE DE
GRACE. WATER LEVELS QUICKLY DECREASE MONDAY MORNING AS OFFSHORE
WINDS FOLLOW. BY TUESDAY, SOME SNAP BACK IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WHICH WOULD BRING A FEW LOCATIONS BACK INTO
ACTION STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ508.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ036>040-050-051-501-
502-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/SRT
MARINE...ADS/BRO/SRT
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