510
FXUS61 KLWX 261755
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLIER THICKER CLOUDS HAVE BEGAN TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL VA.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA LATER TODAY GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO STICK AROUND BEFORE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS ASIDE FROM THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WHERE MID 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH LINGERS AROUND THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARMER,
MOIST AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY MONDAY, UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CIRCULATES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OVER TIME, THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. INDUCED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE UPPER LOW'S CIRCULATION WILL DRAW IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST US, BUT MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
RESPECT TO ITS EXACT PLACEMENT BY TUESDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
DEPART WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY, BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHOULD REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE,
MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MUCH OF MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY, WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 10 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. KCHO
WILL HAVE THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS MAY NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS IN CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WEAK RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE NORTH TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MORE SENSITIVE TIDAL
LOCATIONS LIKE ANNAPOLIS TO REACH ACTION STAGE TODAY AND
SATURDAY AND MAYBE EVEN TOUCHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR/ADM
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KJP/ADM
MARINE...KJP/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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