204
FXUS61 KLWX 010721
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MATCH WELL WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT REGARD.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH SOME MID
30S OUT ON THE RIDGES. GENERALLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST,
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER WHERE THERE IS
STILL SOME RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION IN RECENT DAYS IS STILL CENTERED
ALONG THE EAST COAST. NOW, THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT WE ARE
NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, IN PLENTIFUL DRY ADVECTION.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RESULT, AS WELL AS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST (60S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
ONE THING OF NOTE, WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SKY COVER
TODAY, AND THAT IS THE PRESENCE OF SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OR ANYTHING, BUT YOU'LL LIKELY NOTICE A MILKY APPEARANCE
TO THE SKY.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO SLOWLY
PULL OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INFLUENCE THOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S FOR MOST (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS). LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL COME UP INTO THE
50S.
A STRONG UPPER-RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL FINALLY BUMP OUR REGION INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S, WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LOT WARMER, REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BROAD BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 WIDESPREAD ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE WARMER AND REACH THE LOWER
90S OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN SOME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY ALL LOCATIONS.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS IN THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND WHERE IT ALL COMES FROM DURING THIS PERIOD. A FEW
MODELS SAY THAT A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARRIVES AND
BRINGS IT ALL. OTHER MODELS ARE HINTING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND SLIDES NORTHWARD AIDING IN
THE CONVECTION. NONETHELESS, THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY
SATURDAY COULD BE UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY AND FREQUENT ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION, WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON A SLIGHT COOLDOWN ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THIS CONVECTION AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN MUCH LIGHTER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, SO PERHAPS MRB COULD SEE IMPACTS,
BUT VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, BUT REMAIN WELL WITHIN SCA
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER
POTOMAC. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR THE MOST PART, BUT SOME LOW-END SCA GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WHERE CONFIDENCE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER IS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
SUB-SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME, WITH WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER, AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN CLOSER TO THE WATER TEMPERATURES,
SOUTHERLY FLOW CHANNELING UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD APPROACH
SCA CRITERIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CJL
MARINE...KLW/CJL
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