990
FXUS61 KLWX 181932
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED AND
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRENGTH OF WINDS SO FAR HAS BEEN CLOSELY RELATED TO THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, BUT THERE'S STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
CONSENSUS MAY HAVE EDGED A BIT NORTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND A RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- 2) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- 3) ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND A RISK FOR A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AN ANOMALOUS (FOR JUNE) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH OF
MONTREAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST
PAST THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT OUTFLOW NOW EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY TO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA, WITH AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS
SHIELD TO THE NORTH. THIS CLOUDINESS HAS AFFECTED MIXING, WHICH
IS IMPACTING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. SOUTHERN MARYLAND HAS
SEEN THE MOST SUN AND IS RISING INTO THE 90S. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS MORE SUN. A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIDGES, WHILE SOME IN THE
30S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE STRONG WIND
FIELD STILL AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY 45-50
MPH. WHILE THE HIGHEST READINGS WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE RIDGES,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ALONG THE
ENTIRE MD/PA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST WIND
FIELD. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH 6 PM.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NEARLY ZERO THROUGH 5 PM OR SO. THEN
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RECOVERY FOR ANYTHING NEW TO DEVELOP. NEW CELLS
RECENTLY NEAR HUNTINGTON, WV ARE PROOF THIS IS POSSIBLE, AND A
FEW MODELS STILL BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THE OVERALL RISK AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
DEFINITELY TRENDED DOWNWARD, THERE IS STILL A RISK IN THESE
AREAS SINCE AMPLE SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE. WARMING AND DRYING
ALOFT WILL SQUASH ANY INSTABILITY AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, SERVING TO STEER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWARD RAIN WILL SPREAD AS THIS OCCURS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR
LIKELY NOW THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
FORCING, INSTABILITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND COULD SEE OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, TAKING ANY RAIN WITH IT. SKIES WILL CLEAR NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY.
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A SECONDARY FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE TOWARD THE
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SYNOPTICALLY, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
AN OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN INCUMBENT COLD FRONT WILL
ENHANCE LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID-ATALNTIC. THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
AS FOR TIMING, THE BULK OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING DURING THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRACKING ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. WITH THAT SAID, THERE STILL
IS SOME NOTABLE SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING THE LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH AND OTHERS TRACKING IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. DESPITE THE TRACK OF THE LOW, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS
PREVALENT ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. THIS AT LEAST MEANS
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TO HELP CURB CURRENT D1
(MODERATE) TO D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONCERNS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH GUIDANCE FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THE FLOOD THREAT AS A RESULT REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
DROUGHT ALTHOUGH IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS WERE TO WORK OVER AN
URBAN AREA LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS WE WORK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY, PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL LOOKING AT MORE OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COVERAGE HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED GIVEN THE FEATURES IN
PLAY. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAIN THAT WE DO SEE WILL BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN CONTINUED DROUGHT CONCERNS. AS FOR HUMIDITY, EXPECT
A GRADUAL UPTICK ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES AROUND, IT APPEARS THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LARGE OVER FOR THE METRO TERMINALS AND
MRB. THERE IS STILL A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING NEAR CHO, SO LEFT A PROB30
THERE. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER HAPPENING ELSEWHERE AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL THE RISK OF
IMPACTS IS LOW. WINDS ARE BEING MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AT THE MOMENT, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL SUPPORT
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. RAIN MAY MAKE IT UP TO THE METRO TERMINALS, ESPECIAL
IAD/DCA, BUT STEADIER RAIN WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CHO. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING AND
TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVES WITH A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS ARE STILL BEING SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER, BUT AM STARTING TO SEE GUSTS TO 30 KT WHERE THERE IS MORE
SUN. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET, AND COULD
EVEN INCREASE A TOUCH FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ADMITTEDLY BE MARGINAL.
OTHERWISE SCAS ARE IN EFFECT AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY TRACK OVER THE WATERS, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HOWEVER, THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVERALL.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR PASS TO THE SOUTH. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWEST FLOW.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
WATER. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR THE WATERS UNDER INCREASED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES ARE PEAKING AROUND 1-1.5 FT. ANNAPOLIS COULD BE CLOSE
TO MINOR FLOOD WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE IF THE ANOMALY DOESN'T
DROP FAST ENOUGH. HOWEVER, LOWER ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502-509-
510.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503-504-507.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-
538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532>534-
536-537-539>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/EST
AVIATION...ADS/EST
MARINE...ADS/EST
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