121
FXUS61 KLWX 250628
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
228 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREAS OF MIST AND SOME DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG I-95 EARLY
THIS MORNING. INCOMING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HELP PREVENT MORE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT WILL MAINTAIN MIST ACROSS MOST OF
THAT AREA. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING IN CENTRAL VA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TRAINING MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SET UP ACROSS PARTS OF NELSON AND
ALBEMARLE COUNTIES, WITH RAINFALL OF 1-1.25" IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD ISSUES, THOUGH FFG
IS UPWARDS OF 2-2.5" IN AN HOUR FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE,
DISSIPATING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE MORNING. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS GOING TO BE
LIGHT, BUT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL MIST/FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DC / BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. SOME DENSE FOG IS
ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF BALTIMORE.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GLIDES UP THE COAST. HOWEVER, THE
BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THE BOUNDARY MAKES TODAY IS GOING TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MOST OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-66/US-
48, THOUGH SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE UP TO I-70. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THAT CROPS UP
IF ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER AN URBAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS DUE TO HIGH PWATS
AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, AND STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY WANE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL STRAY SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST. WIDESPREAD DENSE MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS WINDS GO CALM AREAWIDE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COMPLETELY
SATURATED.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NY/PA ON TUESDAY, BUT WON'T
HAVE MUCH SUPPORT TO MOVE SOUTH DUE TO SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC, WITH
TROUGHING REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY, AND MEANDERS A BIT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH MID WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WEEK.
CONDITIONS START TO TREND DRIER BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY, AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FULLY TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. AFTER
DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, CLOUDS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE
TEMPERATURES HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 70S DURING THE DAYTIME.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL TRANSITION OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND TRANSITIONING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AS OF
RIGHT NOW SHOWS ANY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS STAYING TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A STALLED FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AT CHO AND IAD/DCA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS IFR CIGS AREAWIDE, HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR A TEMPO AT DCA,
IAD, AND CHO. THE PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER AT BWI, MTN, AND MRB,
SO WILL GO WITH PROB30 AT THOSE TERMINALS.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTH QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH CALM
WINDS EXPECTED. LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LIKELY CONTINUED
RESTRICTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS TERMINALS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST. GUSTS COULD REACH
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN LIGHT.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARD TO
MARINERS WILL BE FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT
AVIATION...KRR/SRT
MARINE...KRR/SRT
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