075
FXUS61 KLWX 250110
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE-TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHILE AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
RETREATING NEW ENGLAND SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS INTO
THE AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT INTO SUN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND
CONVECTION SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RETURNING TO A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. MID/UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS PERSIST NEAR HUDSON
BAY WHILE EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS AN ELONGATED
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AS
IMPULSES TRACK UP AND OVER THE SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE U.S. THESE OFTEN HAVE A TENDENCY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES, SOME OF WHICH RESULT IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
(MCSS). THUS, EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE EMERGES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY FALLING HEIGHTS/PRESSURES AS WELL AS INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS COINCIDES WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY RISING
INTO THE 1,500 TO 2,500 J/KG RANGE. WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND
HEIGHT FALLS, GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME SAGGING OF THE SURFACE ISOBARIC
PATTERN WITH ITS POSITION INDICATIVE OF A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS
AND THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUCH STORM. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT, THE THREAT FOR STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE CORE
DIURNAL HEATING HOURS.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA-
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY MID-WEEK. A SHIFT TO POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD GRADUALLY QUELL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DEW POINTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH
IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JULY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
60S MOST NIGHTS.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING CHARLOTTESVILLE,
PARTICULARLY SAT AND SUN AFTERNOONS.
THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOST
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STAY BACK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD OF A
NOTABLE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE-RELATED RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CEILINGS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TAKE PLACE
THEREAFTER AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. BEFORE THIS WIND SHIFT
OCCURS, EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL,
GREAT BOATING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP IN INTENSITY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CHANNELING EFFECTS COULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR
SO, WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WIDER WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. A
CONVECTIVE THREAT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE NEED OF SOME SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES REBOUND WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING ACTION STAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/BRO/KJP
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/BRO
MARINE...AVS/LFR/BRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page