071
FXUS61 KLWX 030858
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.
EXPECT WAFFLING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPENDING ON FRONTAL
POSITION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FREEZING RAIN MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY SURFACES THIS MORNING.
- 2) MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZING RAIN MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY SURFACES
THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WITH LITTLE IMPETUS TO RISE GIVEN NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE STRONG
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, A LOT OF THE AREA IS
STILL AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. DESPITE THIS, AND THE HOUR OF DAY,
RECENT WARMTH HAS SUBSTANTIALLY HELPED GROUND TEMPERATURES, AS
MOST ROAD SURFACE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
EVEN THOUGH FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES HAD SUGGESTED OTHERWISE,
IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN LIQUID FORM
RATHER THAN SLEET OR SNOW IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS. GIVEN THIS
TREND, THE FACT THAT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE LOCALLY IN THE UPPER
20S WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF MID 20S DEW POINTS, AND BRIDGE
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INCLUDING BALTIMORE. WHILE FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING BY
DEFINITION IN WASHINGTON DC AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND, FELT MORE
CONFIDENT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT GIVEN MARGINAL AIR
TEMPERATURES AND THE WARM GROUND. AN SPS COVERS THE FACT THAT
SOME ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE DECKS AND STAIRS COULD BE ICY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO RETREAT TODAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE. ALSO THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL START
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS ANY RISK OF ICY CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DECREASING AS THE MORNING WEARS ON, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT,
SO TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK INTO THE 50S.
AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME WHICH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S. IN BETWEEN, SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AFTER A MOSTLY COLD MONTH OF FEBRUARY, THE MONTH OF MARCH WILL OFFER
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LENGTHY PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THIS DOES COME WITH SOME CAVEATS GIVEN THE WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE WON'T BE VENTURING TO FAR NORTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY STILL BISECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 60S FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT IT WILL LIFT
NORTH THURSDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT
COULD DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOW SIZEABLE SPREAD
AS THIS BOUNDARY NEARS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR EXAMPLE,
AT WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) 95TH PERCENTILE FORECAST IS 77 DEGREES, WHILE THE
5TH PERCENTILE IS 55 DEGREES. SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY LOOMS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FORECAST DOES CALL FOR A RAPID WARM UP AS
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTERN U.S. RIDGE.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES COME WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE LOWS
INTERACT WITH THE WAVERING BOUNDARY. WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE THE
REGION IS IN THE NORTHWARD EXPANDING WARM SECTOR, INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME, THERE ARE RELATIVELY GREATER (AS IN 20 PERCENT)
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT IN PLAY LATE IN THE WEEK, A MARKED NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
AREA. GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S, ANY TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS COLD MARITIME AIR MASS
WOULD CERTAINLY BRING COLDER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS A COOLER AIRMASS MAY TRY TO PUSH SOUTH FROM
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE BOUNDARY CAN COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OR IT JUST STALLS OUT AGAIN. FOR THOSE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY, WIDESPREAD 70S WOULD BE EXPECTED. DETAILS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE SO KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR THE LATEST TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. AIR TEMPERATURES
ARE MARGINAL (31-33 DEG) FOR ACCRETION ON ELEVATED SURFACES,
WHILE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH ICE
TO FORM. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO SEEMS TO BE KEEPING CEILINGS UP
FOR THE MOMENT AS GUIDANCE HAD WIDESPREAD IFR TO EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE BY THIS TIME. DO THINK WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
FALL SOLIDLY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING BY MID
MORNING, AND STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME BY MIDDAY
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE DRIZZLE AND MIST IN PLACE. LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS NE/E WINDS ARE SLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING,
THEN GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SPLIT WHETHER IFR CEILINGS PERSIST OR
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ABLE TO BUMP THEM INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
(OR EVEN VFR AT CHO).
THEREAFTER, DETAILS BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS A FRONT WAVERS
NEAR THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A
TIME WEDNESDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVERHEAD, LOW CEILINGS OR FOG COULD RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE TIME ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THIS DOES COME
WITH SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS WHICH MAY AID IN A FEW
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. THE CURRENT WIND FORECAST SHOWS MAINLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING EASTERLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH RETURNS SOUTHWARD
MORE QUICKLY, MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND EARLIER.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY. ASSUMING THE
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF NEAR-ADVISORY
WINDS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIND DIRECTION MAY FLIP
BACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF
THE BOUNDARY SLIPS BACK TO THE SOUTH. FOG AND PRECIPITATION
COULD ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
SUB-ADVISORY CALIBER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED AS WARMER AIR OVERRIDES
THE CHILLY WATERS BELOW. EXPECT MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IF THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
SATURDAY, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008-011-503>506-508-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ003>006-501-502-507-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ027>031-040-051-053-501-502-505>507-526-527.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025-
026-037>039-050-503-504-508.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ050-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ051>053-503-504.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
502-505-506.
MARINE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO
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