356
FXUS61 KLWX 060131 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
FORCING.
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC, USHERING PLENTY OF MOISTURE. PWATS WILL BE NEAR OR
GREATER THAN 2" IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1-2" IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH IS ABOUT 1- 2 SD ABOVE CLIMO. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER, SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO THE PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IS LOWER. IF SOME STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN OCCUR. THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING CONVECTION (CLOUD LAYER WINDS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO LOW-LEVEL WIND), BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED.
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL HOLD ON FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE, MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOTTER CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE RELATIVELY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THE WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS A BIT (ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY).
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AROUND KMRB.
WINDS SHIFT TO MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN RESTRICTIONS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
UPCOMING PATTERN, THIS SORT OF FORECAST WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS
AT TIMES THIS WEEK, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS. DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES CLIMB LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. PERIODS OF COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJL/LFR/DHOF/KRR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...BJL/LFR/DHOF/KRR
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