460  
FXUS61 KLWX 301921  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
321 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, BEFORE  
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN  
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE BALTIMORE AND  
WASHINGTON METRO AREAS UNTIL 11 PM FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT COULD TRAIN AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL  
RATES THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. CAREFUL SATELLITE  
ANALYSIS SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS FORMING IN BETWEEN RT 15 AND  
I-83. ALSO, NUCAPS GRIDDED DATA SHOWS IN THIS AREA A MAX OF 17C  
850 MB DEWPOINTS CENTERED ACROSS FREDERICK COUNTY MD INTO  
GETTYSBURG PA. 12Z HREF MAX UPDRAFT VALUES INDICATE THAT  
CONVECTION COULD LAST WELL THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THIS REASON, FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAINS LOW DUE LACK OF DRY AIR  
ALOFT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA TOMORROW AND BE FOCUS FOR  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG  
INSTABILITY, AND HEIGHT FALLS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY  
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE  
STRONGER SUGGESTING FASTER STORM MOTIONS, THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL  
FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH  
SUGGESTS SOME TRAINING OR REPEATED STORMS IS POSSIBLE. A LARGER  
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND  
STRONG INSTABILITY ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS DUE TO WET MICROBURSTS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MD BEFORE EXITING OR DISSIPATING EARLY  
WED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING  
SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE  
RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE HUMIDITY WILL LOWER EVEN  
FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS  
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THE WEAK FRONT WILL SET US  
UP FOR A GREAT JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEATHER WISE AS WELL AS START TO THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 80S WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT  
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S WITH URBAN LOCATIONS  
IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR  
VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AS  
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND  
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING  
RENEWED CHANCES FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW  
90S ON SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING T-STORMS TUE WITH POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND  
SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS  
TUE AHEAD AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. T-STORMS MAY ALSO REQUIRE  
SMWS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO WED MORNING.  
 
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH  
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT  
TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT  
TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-536-538-539.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-  
540>543.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...LFR  
NEAR TERM...LFR  
SHORT TERM...LFR  
LONG TERM...EST  
AVIATION...LFR/EST  
MARINE...LFR/EST  
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