513
FXUS61 KLWX 081444
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STEEP NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER IS TAKING SOME TIME TO MIX OUT DUE
TO CALM WINDS AND LOW JANUARY SUN ANGLE. HOWEVER WHEN IT DOES,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE
BEFORE CIRRUS MAY BECOME A BIT THICKER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SLIDES OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES. HIGHS REACH
THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING BECOMES MIXED WITH CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT'S
SLOW PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS, ON AND OFF
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES, AND EVEN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HIGHS ARE GOING TO REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH, AND UP TO 35-45 MPH ON THE
RIDGES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN THE FIRST OF
A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
GOING TO PRODUCE A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. VERY MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS
START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY,
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING
IN THE MID 50S. THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT, AS RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST. COLDER AIR SURGES IN, DROPPING LOWS TO THE UPPER
20S TO 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND LOW TO MID 40S TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP QUICK, WITH NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(GUSTS 45-50 MPH) POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER RIDGES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNFOLDS INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH
ALSO BRINGS A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE
KEY PLAYERS ARE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CONTINENT. IN PARTICULAR, A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH YIELDS A CHILLY START
TO THE WORK WEEK. MODEST LIFT UNDERNEATH THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES, SOME OF THIS COMES IN THE FORM
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FORECAST HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S, WITH UPPER 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BRISK
WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN SHIFT WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25
TO 35 MPH, NEARING 45 MPH ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. WIND FIELDS
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S
(MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES).
BY MONDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WHILE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH IN THE TRAILING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FAVORS A DRIER PATTERN GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT PATTERN. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
SEEM TO SUPPORT MONDAY AS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS
STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, 20S TO 30S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TAKE FOLD OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS AIDS IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK TOWARD THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER MARKED
COOL DOWN. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY ANY
UPTICK IN SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LINGERING PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
WINDS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ON AND OFF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, THEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS/RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM RAINFALL ARE LIKELY. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THIS WILL COME WITH A BRISK WESTERLY WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WHILE DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. BY MONDAY, SKIES CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
THIS COMES WITH A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTING UP TO NEAR 20
KNOTS.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE WAKE ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
NEEDED AS GUSTS PUSH INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS GRADUAL
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY WITH RESIDUAL ADVISORY-CALIBER
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, WINDS BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS
GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...ADS/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/KRR
MARINE...ADS/BRO/KRR
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