332
FXUS61 KLWX 270236
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AND AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OVERALL, THE SETUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR BUT THE
LATEST COUPLE CYCLES OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED DOWN (FOR NOW) ON
TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD WEATHER FOLLOWING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
-2) A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD WEATHER FOLLOWING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA COAST. LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE, INDICATED BY
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S, COULD BE MET
WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THUS, PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN PLACES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MILDER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY, WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 60F FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE APPALACHAINS AND MD/PA
LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN MUCH COLDER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL RAIN AND
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
CHANCES OF A WINTER STORM THREAT ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASING FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE HIGH-20S/MID-
30S ON MONDAY, AND THIS ANTICIPATED MARGINAL RANGE IS PARTLY WHY THE
POTENTIAL RANGE OF IMPACTS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CAUSING POTENTIALLY
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE LOWS TO IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND ICON ARE ALL SHOWING SOME FORM OF
SNOW/ICE/FREEZING RAIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGIONS DURING
THEN, BUT THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR, AND TO WHAT
MAGNITUDE THEY MANIFEST AS EITHER WINTER PRECIPITATION OR COLD
RAIN.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE METRO CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR 1SM OR LESS
VSBYS OVER THE VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN VA HEADING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH
BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
TWO POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY
COULD CAUSE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT TERMINALS. WINDS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL SOUTHERLY WIND
SHIFT ON TUESDAY. WINDS COULD START TO PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE
WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL FLIP FROM NORTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING BACK TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AT LESS
THAN 15 KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
LOOKING LESS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE VERY
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE OVERALL OVER WATER ON TUESDAY. A W/SW WIND SHIFT IS
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/EST/SRT
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/EST/SRT
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