934
FXUS61 KLWX 031338
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS WAS CANCELLED AS WATERS
REMAINED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2) HOT WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S (UPPER 60S
MOUNTAINS) WITH MID TO UPPER 80S (LOW 70S MOUNTAINS) EXPECTED
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID TOP
UPPER 50S (LOW 50S MOUNTAINS). THESE VALUES CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S UNDER RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. THE
MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY. HOWEVER,
DEW POINT RISES WILL BE MODEST, LIKELY STAYING IN THE 50S, SO
THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FORCING TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S. MEANWHILE, A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND EVENTUALLY
THE MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A RESULTING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, BRINGING BACK WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO ALIGN THEMSELVES SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP & TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT STILL SHOWS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ECMWF TRACKING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS AND ICON MODEL OUTPUTS.
ADDITIONALLY, NCAR'S AI NWP CONVECTIVE FORECAST SHOWS SOME INCREASE
IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH A 15%-30% PROBABILITY NOW SHOWING FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MEANDERS OFFSHORE, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST. EARLY QPF ESTIMATES ARE
SHOWING BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1.00" OF RAINFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
CONSIDERED WIDELY BENEFICIAL GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONCERNS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DECREASE A BIT ONCE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES, WITH EARLY OUTPUTS SHOWING HIGHS BACK IN
THE LOW-80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DOWN TOWARD KLYH AND KRIC.
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THU/FRI, WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. BEGINNING SUNDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF REDUCED CONDITIONS
ACROSS TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY FLOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTERLY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME NEAR SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER WATERS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT SCAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING COULD BRING A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SCAS COULD BE WARRANTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS COULD FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS WAS CANCELLED AS WATER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL. OTHER SENSITIVE SITES REMAIN IN ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING. TIDES
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING OR HIGHER BEYOND THIS
MORNING AT THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT
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