119
FXUS61 KLWX 120106 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDDAY.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 3) DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
A FEW SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE PAST THREE HOURS BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SPARKED OF
COUPLE OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL BELTWAY. IN ADDITION,
00Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWED DRY LOW LEVELS BELOW 700 MB ON NW FLOW.
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WV KEEPS TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND THE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE NORTH KEEPS
SHRINKING. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WE'LL BE TRIMMING POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
BASED ON CURRENT MODELS, THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
LARGELY BE DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IF CLEARING OCCURS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER WE REMAIN IN WEST
OR NORTHWEST FLOW AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS, OR IF THE RICHER
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE THAT AFFECTS DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. MANY, BUT NOT ALL, MODELS SHOW A RELATIVE LULL
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA.
ONE, POSSIBLY TWO, WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD LIFT THE
FRONT NORTHWARD, OR AT LEAST PROVIDE A MORE NOTABLE SOURCE OF
FORCING OTHER THAN SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW
WELL SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING WILL OVERLAP, BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP IF THEY DO. ML/AI
GUIDANCE HAS MIXED SIGNALS ON SEVERE PROBABILITIES, BUT OVERALL
LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY AND TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FEWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL. AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH, SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FORMING NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MOST MEDIUM-
RANGE SEVERE OUTLOOKS CURRENTLY PRODUCING RATHER MARGINAL 5-15
PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
OVER THE REGION, REDUCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG.
REMAINING DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF A COLD FRONT AND THE TIMING
OF ANY DISTURBANCES. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT PATCHY
FOG BETWEEN THE TERMINALS EACH MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS) BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH WEST.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THAT
COULD GENERATE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY AS THIS
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
MARINE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER THE AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/EST
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/EST
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST
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