842
FXUS61 KLWX 261922
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
322 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALEXANDRIA AND
ANNAPOLIS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. MARYS
COUNTY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTY. GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF DRUM POINT THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A NOR'EASTER BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND SOME RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) WARM AND CALM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOR'EASTER BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND SOME RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SPIRALING BACK INTO OUR AREA
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE NOR'EASTER. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT AS SHOWERS PROGRESS WESTWARD THEY
WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE AS THEY HIT MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
AS THE NOR'EASTER REACHES ITS NORTHERN MOST POSITION LATE
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW CENTER CIRCLES BACK INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW, EXPECT
MORE RAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA, AND
THIS PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO REACH AS FAR
WEST AS THE ALLEGHENIES. NORTHEAST MARYLAND COULD SEE UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE 20-35 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 40 MPH NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS ARE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES AND WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY START DECLINING
BY MONDAY, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY ARE A BIT LOWER IF CLOUDS ARE
THICK. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY, SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GENERALLY WARM AND BENIGN WEATHER NEXT WEEK BEFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES AND WIND GUSTS DECLINE ON MONDAY, CLOUD COVER
REMAINS STUBBORN, POTENTIALLY LIMITING SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEK.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, BUT COULD
TREND A BIT COOLER IF A THICKER CLOUD DECK PERSISTS. AS
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST, SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ADVANCES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN FAVORS DRY AND
GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S POTENTIALLY
CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT
COULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN ALL OF THE FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS WEAK, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM CANADA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING, THEN PAUSE
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE IT COMES BACK AGAIN SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE THE GUSTY N TO NNW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN SUNDAY. SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND
SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MARINE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY, BUT
THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
SURGE IN NORTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW. HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF DRUM POINT
WHERE FETCH WILL BE LONGER AND WINDS LIKELY OVERPERFORM.
OTHERWISE, STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FAVORABLE, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN IF THOSE
WINDS APPROACH SCA STRENGTH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEGUN TO SLOSH BACK AT THE BOTTOM OF
THE BAY WITH INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES SEEN NOW AT STRAITS
POINT AND ANNAPOLIS. BASED ON FORECAST TRENDS FROM SURGE MODELS,
THIS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ST.
MARYS COUNTY FOR TONIGHT'S AND SUNDAY'S HIGH TIDES. A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR SUNDAY'S
HIGH TIDE. NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF
ALEXANDRIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-537-
539>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>533-537-539>542.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KVH
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KVH
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