921
FXUS61 KLWX 280820
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL, DRY AIR HAS ENOUGH FORCE TO IT TO
RESULT IN SOME SPORADIC 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AROUND AND JUST
SOUTH AND WEST OF WASHINGTON DC INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH 40 TO 50 MPH ON THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT COULD BRING BACK COOLER TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.
A PUSH OF COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR WILL ROLL INTO THE REGION ON
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. THE STRONGEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SLACKENING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S (WITH TEENS
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS). COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH
RESULTS IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS).
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RETURN TO BRISK
WEATHER WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR,
CLEAR SKY, AND CALM WIND ARE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST, WITH AROUND FREEZING IN THE MAJOR URBAN CENTERS AND NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER, AND INTO THE TEENS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S. THIS
DRAWS MANY AREAS TO OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A LEAD WAVE/WEAK WARM
FRONT TYPE FEATURE LIFT ACROSS, BUT RESIDUAL DRY AIR MAY MAKE
MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY.
FORCING SEEMS RATHER NEBULOUS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY,
THOUGH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE COULD STILL
RESULT IN A POP UP SHOWER NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT COULD BRING BACK COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BACK COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES QUITE A BIT WITH HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE THUS HAS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THIS TRACK DISCREPANCY. CURRENTLY THE
ECMWF HAS THE PROJECTED LOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEREAS THE ICON HAS THE LOW PASSING TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND IS TRENDING COLDER
OVERALL. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL TRACK, EXPECT ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE A
FACTOR WITH NW GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY
09Z THROUGH 18Z, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY 21Z-23Z. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND SHIFT AROUND TO S BETWEEN 04Z-08Z SUNDAY. GUSTINESS
LIKELY INCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KTS COMMON AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z.
S/SW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND A SUBTLE WARM FRONT TYPE
FEATURE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS COULD
FEASIBLY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS, BUT THEY WOULD LIKELY BE VERY
BRIEF AND SPOTTY GIVEN RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN PLACE. VFR WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY S/SW WINDS CONTINUE TUESDAY.
A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS
AND VSBYS SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH GUST POTENTIAL REMAINING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL, DRY AIR EARLY THIS MORNING IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN A FEW GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, WAVES OF CHRONIC SCAS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK, FIRST IN NORTHWEST GUSTINESS AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY, THEN IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOK HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH 20-25 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE. SCA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PERSIST UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY, WHERE A
MIDWEEK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK BRINGING REPETITIVE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
A DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT TODAY, AND 25-35 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY. THE LOWEST VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY WHERE RH COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST TAMPERED DUE TO THE WETTING RAINS FROM
FRIDAY, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING AROUND 20-30 MPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY MIGHT BE THE MORE FIRE SENSITIVE DAY SINCE FINE FUELS WILL
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH ARE FORECAST SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/SRT
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