954
FXUS61 KLWX 110755
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED FOR SATURDAY. IF ANY OF THESE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
IMPACT THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, A THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH A
POSSIBLY DRIER FINISH TO THE WEEKEND.
- 2) SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,
WITH A POSSIBLY DRIER FINISH TO THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA BACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO THE MIDDLE OF
KENTUCKY. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
PRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, RECENT RADAR RETURNS ARE A BIT HEFTIER
SOUTH OF I-66/U.S. 50. SUCH ELEMENTS WILL BRING MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON, D.C. METRO
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE MORE REGIONAL-SCALE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL BEHIND THIS WAVE, BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BACK OVER WEST VIRGINIA. MOST AREAS SEE SHOWER
CHANCES DIMINISH TOWARD MIDDAY, BUT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL YIELD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, LOCALLY A BIT COOLER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE TOWARD THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ITS MORE DIFFUSE NATURE
WILL ONLY BRING A LIMITED DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS. SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF IN THE 60S WHICH COMES
WITH FURTHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE FOCUS IS DRIVEN BY AN ELONGATED TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE ARKLATEX STATES. AS THIS ARRAY OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LIFT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
STORM CHANCES INCREASE IN EARNEST. THE 00Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SOME OF WHICH ARE ON
THE HIGHER END (1 TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS). WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE AND DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYERS, SOME FAIRLY EFFICIENT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER SUPPORTS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS NEW MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ARRIVES.
COMING OFF TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM
UP INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 80S. SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT.
H5 RIDGING BUILDS MON THROUGH WED, BEFORE WEAKENING AS SW TROFS
AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME SPREAD
ON EXACTLY WHAT DAY THIS HAPPENS, BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS AROUND
THU. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT PROBABILITY
OF SVR WX REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION THROUGH
DAYBREAK IF A LOCALLY MORE INTENSE SHOWER MOVES THROUGH. WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS TURN DRIER BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCHO WHICH MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 4-8 PM TIMEFRAME. OVERALL WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT MANY TIMES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME TERMINALS COULD MOVE OVER TO MVFR
AT THAT POINT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH, PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHILE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AMIDST MAINLY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS MON AND TUE WITH LIGHT N'LY WINDS MON
VEERING E'LY MON NIGHT AND S'LY TUE.
MARINE
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS COULD YIELD WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO, PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPPER TO
MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY. OVERALL WINDS TURN MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH.
THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN WINDS THAT MAY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD INCLUDE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. GRADIENTS WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 5 TO 10
KNOT RANGE.
SCAS EXPECTED MON WITH BRISK N'LY WINDS. WINDS VEER OUT OF
E MON NIGHT AND THEN S TUE, BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUE
AFTERNOON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL LEVELS REMAIN NORMAL AS ANOMALIES SIT NEAR 0 FEET EARLY
THIS MORNING. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
LATER TODAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
LOOKING TOWARDS LATE SATURDAY, WATER LEVELS INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSES THE
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRO/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO
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