925
FXUS61 KLWX 141804
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
204 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE
LOWERED FROM GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COOL START TO WEEK, THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL START TO WEEK, THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F, WITH ONLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR HIGHS TODAY. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT PROMOTES LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. A GREAT SETUP FOR RADIATIVE COOLING THAT WILL DROP
TEMPS TO THE 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND 40S TO THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST LOCATIONS IN THE ALLEGHENIES COULD DROP TO THE UPPER 30S.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH WEDNESDAY'S
FORECAST HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH MAINLY 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. DESPITE HIGHER HUMIDITY, THE PATTERN DOES REMAIN DRY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-81 IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 90S DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST POSSIBLE SOLUTION WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. THE SECOND SOLUTION INVOLVES THE FRONT
STALLING OVERHEAD WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
EITHER WAY, EXPECT THE RETURN OF DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERLY CHANNELING THAT IS PRODUCING GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS ARE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A GRADUAL RISE IN WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS AGAIN
PUSHES A NUMBER OF SITES INTO ACTION STAGE DURING THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ON LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...KRR/AVS
AVIATION...KRR
MARINE...KRR
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