152
FXUS61 KLWX 090000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE QUICKER TREND IN GUIDANCE FOR THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS HAS
CONTINUED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH A POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, GALES, AND EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SUNNY & MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- 2) REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUNNY & MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE MID- TO- UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS. AS MOST OF CONUS
REMAINS QUIET OFF TO OUR WEST, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AHEAD OF
ANY POTENTIAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
ARRIVING IN CENTRAL VA SATURDAY EVENING, A LITTLE QUICKER THAN WHAT
IT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY, AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FCST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BY
12Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATELY INTENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT BEGINS TO MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN FALLING, WITH THE HEAVIEST/MOST INTENSE RAINFALL
FALLING IN A ROUGHLY 12-HR PERIOD FROM 06Z-18Z SUN. GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION AND STRATIFORM TYPE, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AS FOR THE
RISK OF SEVERE WX, IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF POINT LOOKOUT INTO THE VA TIDEWATER
REGION. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CROSSES THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS THEN FCST TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT BRINGING AUTUMN
CHILL FOR THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. KCHO COULD SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE
ISAIAS BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, FLOWING OUT OF THE W TO WNW.
WINDS COULD BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY,
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY SUNDAY EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WOULDN'T RULE OUT
SOME LLWS IF A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY, BECOMING GUSTIER BY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL REMNANTS FROM
HURRICANE ISAIAS BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SCAS REMAIN A LIKELIHOOD AT THIS POINT UNTIL ANY REMAINING
TROPICAL REMNANTS MOVE THROUGH. GALES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AROUND SOUTHERN MD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WITH GALES POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING DUE TO RISING WATER LEVELS DUE TO STRENGTHENING SE OR S
WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO A NEW MOON.
UNTIL THEN, TIDE LEVELS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW ACTION STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/SRT
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/SRT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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