708
FXUS61 KLWX 190836
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
336 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WERE EXPANDED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE, THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- 2) THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS
INCREASED FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC
FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE ALLEGHENIES TODAY, WITH SUB-ADVISORY
LEVEL (LESS THAN 3 INCHES) SNOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
VERY COLD CONDITIONS, IT WILL STICK TO EVERYTHING. FOR
ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET, WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH
ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING
CLOUDS. PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZES.
THE REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC,
MOVING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, 850 HPA TEMPS
TUMBLE TO -15 TO -20 C. THIS EQUATES TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGITS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COMBINED WITH A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND, IT
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (AS COLD AS -30
ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE ALLEGHENIES).
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY (TEENS MOUNTAINS) WITH PERHAPS ONLY PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TO SOUTHERN MD POKING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL MODERATE BUT REMAIN COLDER
THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM HAS INCREASED FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN RESEMBLES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN
U.S. HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. BEFORE THAT, A POTENT COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY COLD CONDITIONS EACH
DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION,
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH FRONT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE IN BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS STILL VERY MUCH ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO EXACTLY
WHAT COMES OF THIS, BUT THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS FOR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS, AS WELL AS WHERE IT GOES AFTER IT DOES DEVELOP, THERE
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COULD
SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM SOUTH. HOWEVER, THAT HIGH (~1040 MB ARCTIC
HIGH) IS ALSO A SOURCE OF VERY COLD AIR; THIS LIKELY REMAINS IN
PLACE DUE TO A FAVORABLE -AO/-NAO BLOCKING PATTERN. MEANWHILE,
THERE ARE AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT BRING
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DUE TO AN
AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE - SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN
VERY LITTLE OF SO FAR THIS WINTER (TYPICAL OF LA NINA). THE LOW
MAY NOT ESCAPE AS EASILY OUT TO SEA GIVEN THE -NAO BLOCK. THE
NEARBY STEADY SOURCE OF VERY COLD AIR AND THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN
STREAM OCCURRING IN TANDEM ARE WHAT RAISE SOME RED FLAGS FOR
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY ON THE UPWARD TREND
IN THAT REGARD, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT CAN'T SWING BACK IN THE
OTHER DIRECTION. IT WILL BE KEY TO MONITOR THIS THREAT CLOSELY
IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
BETTER SAMPLED BY SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBS. CURRENT MODEL
SPREAD INDICATES AN AXIS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE COULD BE AS
FAR NORTH AS UPSTATE NEW YORK, OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A PERIOD OF SCT/BKN STRATOCU
AROUND FL050-080 IS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
CROSSES. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE
SW, THEN BECOME W TO NW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT,
THEN PICK UP AGAIN AT SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT LIKELY WON'T BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
TAF SITES AS IT CROSSES THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER (PROBABLY DRY)
FRONT FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT TIMES.
MARINE
WAVES OF GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TIDAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL GUST 15-25 KTS THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW
AHEAD OF A FRONT. W/NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS ARE LIKELY THIS
EVENING, LINGERING OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ADDITIONAL
GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY, LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD COME
THROUGH DRY, WITH A SECONDARY (DRY) FRONT FRIDAY. EACH OF THESE
FRONTS LIKELY BRING INCREASES IN WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502>504-506.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL
MARINE...DHOF/CJL
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