076  
FXUS61 KLWX 030856  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
356 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE  
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH  
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR  
COURSE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A THIRD AND EVEN STRONGER AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER  
VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE MID-  
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,  
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-81  
CORRIDOR, AND ALSO NEAR FREDERICK, MD. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE  
IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH 9 AM. ADDITIONAL FOG MAY  
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY  
AROUND MID-MORNING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS  
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT. THERE ARE  
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE  
TO DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY,  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME  
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE  
BLUE RIDGE AS WEAK EASTERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AT LOW-  
LEVELS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MARINE INFLUENCE WITHIN  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER  
WEST, MORE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED. IT  
WILL BE YET ANOTHER MILD EARLY MARCH DAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY  
IN THE 60S.  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT, A MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED  
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH FROM THE  
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL AND LARGELY REMOVED FROM  
STRONGER STEERING FLOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, SO THERE IS STILL A  
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO ITS TRACK. THE  
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING AREAS TO THE EAST  
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER TO  
THE WEST.  
 
RAIN MAY LINGER TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT  
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH  
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION  
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, BUT RAIN MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH  
VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUCKED UNDER RIDGING IN  
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL SPAWN ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO RIDE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, THERE IS  
STILL SOME TRACK AND TIMING SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS PIECES OF  
COMPUTER GUIDANCE. FROM A PATTERN STANDPOINT, PERSISTENT ONSHORE  
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH FLOW EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO  
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, THIS ADVECTION  
PATTERN SHOULD STILL YIELD PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES, OVER 2  
SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS OF  
LIMITED INSTABILITY (MAINLY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE). THESE  
FACTORS LEND TO A MARGINAL FLOOD THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR THE  
TYPICALLY MORE VULNERABLE URBAN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-95. THE  
FLOOD THREAT COULD INCREASE IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS MORE  
AMPLIFIED, AND/OR IF THE HIGHER END RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS  
REALIZED WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SYSTEM WHICH WOULD  
INCREASE SOIL SATURATION.  
 
A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH - PART LEFT OVER FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY  
AFFECTING THE WEST COAST, AND ANOTHER PART FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA - IS PROGGED TO PUSH TOWARD THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER LOW  
PRESSURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WOULD BE PROBABLE IN THIS SETUP,  
GIVEN THE STRONGER OVERALL JET PATTERN SURROUNDING IT. SOME GUIDANCE  
(LIKE THE 03/00Z GFS) HAS ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEEDING INTO THE REGION  
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM(S) THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
COMES INTO THE PICTURE, THOUGH WITH A LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR MORE  
PERSISTENT DEEPER COLD THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS  
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (TYPICAL OF MARCH).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-  
MORNING. DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR, AS WELL  
AS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND. ELSEWHERE, ANY FOG IS PATCHIER  
AND NOT AS DENSE. FOG, LOCALLY DENSE SHOULD IMPACT MRB CLOSER  
TO DAYBREAK, WITH FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. ANY  
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID- MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG,  
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS  
DECK MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND  
FL030 TO FL050, BUT IT MAY DIP DOWN TO AROUND FL025 IN SOME  
SPOTS. WINDS TODAY WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BEFORE  
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH LOW CLOUDS  
AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT  
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY  
LEADING TO SUB-VFR AND RAINY CONDITIONS. THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS  
AND RAIN MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT  
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND LLWS IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH  
LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN WED-THU. E/NE WINDS COULD GUST 20-  
25 KTS AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE WINDS  
WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND  
THEN OUT OF THE EAST TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT  
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE IN EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  
 
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND LOW PRESSURE  
MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SCAS LIKELY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED AROUND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
ALTHOUGH GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT TO MODEST (I.E. 20-25 KT GUST) SIDE,  
THE SEMI-PROLONGED NATURE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOWERING  
PRESSURE AND RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD RESULT IN NEAR MINOR  
FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE SHORELINE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004.  
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031.  
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ052-053.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DHOF  
NEAR TERM...KJP  
SHORT TERM...KJP  
LONG TERM...DHOF  
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP  
MARINE...DHOF/KJP  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF  
 
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