106
FXUS61 KLWX 240149
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EARLIER WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
WESTERN ALLEGANY AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN THE ALLEGHENIES
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.
- 2) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY.
- 3) SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN THE ALLEGHENIES
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT AS THE THE
INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ALOFT.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS
RETURNING SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE ALLEGHENIES, WHERE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF UPSLOPE SNOW IS FORECAST. FURTHER EAST, A TRACE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. A LACK OF MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELSEWHERE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP NEAR DFW BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN TRACKS
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL IN
DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MD/PA LINE. A
FASTER SYSTEM WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE IN WHILE SOME RESIDUAL COLD AIR
IS STILL IN PLACE (SEE: GFS), BUT A SLOWER PROGRESSION GIVES ENOUGH
TIME FOR WARM ADVECTION TO RESULT IN PRETTY MUCH JUST RAIN EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX RIGHT ALONG THE PA LINE EARLY THURSDAY
(SEE: EVERYTHING ELSE).
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS
IT INGESTS SOME GULF AIR ON ITS WAY UP, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5"
QPF RANGING FROM 30 TO 60 PCT FROM NW TO SE. FREEZING RAIN PROBS
FROM NBM V5.0 HIGHLIGHT THE "COLD POCKET" OF WESTERN MD PRETTY WELL
WITH 30-60 PCT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE ICE THERE (AS WELL AS ALONG THE
PA LINE IN NE MD).
WOULD THINK THAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIMITED
TO (1) A WINTRY MIX AT ONSET OVER WESTERN/FAR NORTHERN MD, AND (2)
PONDING WATER/NUISANCE FLOODING WHEN COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOWMELT
SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM'S
TRAJECTORY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY COULD HAVE
NOTABLE DOWNSTREAM IMPLICATIONS.
A TRAILING WAVE MAY INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THE FLATTER FLOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOCATED OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS OUT
TO SEA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FOR A FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE COLD AIR OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND ITSELF LOOKS
MILD AND DRY PRIOR TO THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, BUT
TEMPS MAY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLES HAVE
OCCASIONALLY ATTEMPTED TO SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE THAT HEADS OUR WAY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SPREAD IS VERY HIGH BY THIS POINT.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
CHO WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
TOMORROW, DRY CONDITIONS AND DIMINISH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AIRPORTS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THU AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RA. VFR
FRI.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
WATERS AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE IN E/SE FLOW BECOMING W/NW AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES LATE THURSDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY THURSDAY, AS WELL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN RISING WATER LEVELS
THAT COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY AT ANNAPOLIS. IN
FACT, SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE BRINGS ANNAPOLIS CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, BUT THE BREVITY OF FAVORABLE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS BELOW THIS LEVEL.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/DHOF
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