738
FXUS61 KLWX 310824
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOK TO
ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SET TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON RADAR (AS OF 315AM) OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES AND CATOCTINS AS WELL AS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW PER RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS IN THE AREA. OF COURSE THIS IS WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT CAN BE FOUND GIVEN THE SOURCE OF MOISTURE BEING
PULLED SOUTH AND EAST FROM LAKE ERIE/MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERHAPS A DUSTING TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG
FAVORED WESTERN FACING RIDGES (KEYSERS RIDGE, BACKBONE MOUNTAIN,
SPRUCE KNOB, ETC.) HEADING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECT SLICK
TRAVEL WEST OF FROSTBURG ALONG I-68/US-40 AS WELL AS ALONG US-48
WEST OF MOOREFIELD, WV, US-33 WEST OF FRANKLIN, WV, AND US-219 FROM
THE PA/MD LINE TO WV LINE.
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE METROS, MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID, HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPWARD MOTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS THAT IS ALIGNED WITH SATURATION AND THE DGZ. THIS WILL
PLAY TUG OF WAR WITH THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE EITHER
FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT PERIOD OF SNOW AT OR AROUND SUNRISE (4AM-
8AM) ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF MD AND DOWN THROUGH THE
BALTIMORE/DC METROS AREAS.
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW IN THESE AREAS GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE. THE WILDCARD REMAINS THE DRY THE AIR. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH
WE ARE LOOKING AT FLURRIES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ABOVE AND NO
IMPACT TO THE COMMUTE. IF THERE IS LESS DRY AIR (AT THE SURFACE) WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT A QUICK 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW (LESS THAN
0.5 INCH) THAT WILL STICK TO THE COLD PAVEMENT AND CREATE IMPACT FOR
THE COMMUTE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS THREAT,
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH A LULL EXPECTED BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND IT'S REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BRINGING
WITH IT RENEWED COLD TEMPERATURES, WIND, AND IMPACTFUL MOUNTAIN
SNOW. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL LEAD TO BETTER UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME SPILLOVER IN THE
FORM OF SNOW SQUALLS, SHOWERS, AND FLURRIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SOME IMPACTS NORTH OF I-
66/US-50. SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GIVEN THE TIMING
WITH LATE NEW YEAR'S EVE/EARLY NEW YEAR'S DAY FESTIVITIES.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT, WITH WESTERN HIGHLAND AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY
COUNTIES BOTH IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ
ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND HIGH SLRS (15-17:1 INCREASING TO 20 TO
22:1) SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE (AROUND 6-
10"+ ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES, WITH
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
TIMING, WITH THE ONSET OF THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURRING
RIGHT AROUND, OR JUST BEFORE, MIDNIGHT ON NEW YEAR'S EVE/NEW YEAR'S
DAY. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, AREAS IN THE WARNINGS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES +, WITH THE AREAS IN ADVISORIES BETWEEN
2 AND 4 INCHES.
THE CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STILL REMAINS
IN QUESTION. IF THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT, A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I-66/US-50 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES A NARROW BAND OF SNOW PUSHING
THROUGH. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GIVEN TO AREAS
NORTH OF I-70 SINCE THE BETTER FORCING AND SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
VALUES ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PA/MD LINE. SOMETHING THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TO MID
30S AND LOW 40S FURTHER EAST. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S EAST.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL BACK BELOW ZERO OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TEENS
FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS CHOKED OFF
GIVEN BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THIS TIME AS THE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK.
EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S, ALONG AND NORTH OF I-66/US-50. LOCATIONS SOUTH WILL BE
A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS
20 TO 30 MPH WITH (35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS MTNS.) THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL YIELD SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR FEELS LIKE NUMBERS
EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH WILL TRY TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO EXTRA CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AND DOWN AROUND I-64. ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US-460 IN VA. THE
FRONT FLOPS BACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 20S
EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS ENCOMPASSES EASTERN CANADA
WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S.
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A PROGRESSIVE WAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE SHOULD STAY DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OTHERWISE, A
BRUNT OF THE FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES STAYS OFF TO
THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THUS, ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY REMAINS IN CHARGE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AT NIGHT, MOST CAN EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S.
HEADING INTO THE FIRST FULL WORK WEEK OF 2026, THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HEIGHT FALLS ARE QUITE
WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LARGELY CAPPED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FOCUSED
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES SHOW
A GRADUAL UPTICK IN NUMBERS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY, MOST LOCATIONS RISE BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S, WITH SOME
LOW 50S SOUTH OF I-66 IN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN
THE CORRIDOR 9-13Z/4AM-8AM THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WOULD BE AT BWI, DCA, AND MTN. IF LIGHT SNOW
WERE TO OCCUR, IMPACTS ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BESIDES THE SNOW EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AT
TIMES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE SCT-
BKN AS STRATO/ALTO CUMULUS ROLLING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 07Z-12Z/2AM-7AM THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AND ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION MAY HAVE IMPACT
DUE TO THE COLD CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
GIVEN HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
BWI, MTN, IAD, MRB, HGR, AND DCA DURING THE TIME WINDOW ABOVE. ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT AND LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN A 1-2 HOUR
TIME WINDOW. WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW AND THE FRONT COMING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND. EXPECT GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY TO THE WEST FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD LARGELY MEANDER
BETWEEN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENTS ARE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE, SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR ALL
WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND MORE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES CAN'T BE RULED OUT RIGHT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL FAVOR LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. GUSTS SHOULD TOP AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
SO, WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ501.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...DHOF/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/EST
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/EST
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