916
FXUS61 KLWX 270600
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- 2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF OCTOBER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT TO
THE SOUTH/EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SAME
FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ANOTHER
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A
SERIES OF WIND SHIFTS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY. WINDS
WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S THOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID
70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY. THIS IS THANKS TO THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN MILD AS WELL IN THE MID 40S AND LOW 50S.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS, FOG, OR EVEN A
LITTLE DRIZZLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS EACH OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE PATTERN BEGINS
TO LOOSEN. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUCKLE WITH AN INCOMING
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY
BRING AN END TO THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
NOVEMBER. DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, EXPECT HIGHS
SATURDAY BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD BREAKS DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW BY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY START TO BECOME CLOUDIER BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BEFORE HEADING EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IN
OVER A WEEK, ALTHOUGH OVERALL BREADTH AND TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE LOW 70S OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER WEAK (DRY) FRONT. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S, THIS RANGES SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER. LOOKING AHEAD, MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SECOND, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS
LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY AT CHO AND MRB GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE/INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE BANKING ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND UP THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, ALTHOUGH HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME CONSISTENCY IN RECENT CYCLES. ASIDE FROM EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OCCURS
SUNDAY WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NE WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY. SOME CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH OVERALL
GRADIENTS LOOK WEAK. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY ON FRIDAY,
THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY PUSH SENSITIVE
SHORELINE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR
REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WOULD BE PLACES LIKE
ANNAPOLIS AND ALEXANDRIA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TIDE CYCLES
(WHICH ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/EST/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/EST/SRT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page