076
FXUS61 KLWX 011908
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR GARRETT COUNTY AND WESTERN
ALLEGANY COUNTIES IN MD, WESTERN MINERAL, WESTERN GRANT AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES IN WV, AND HIGHLAND COUNTY IN VA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
- 2) SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AND PATCHY TO
WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A CLAP OF THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING IN WESTERN MARYLAND AND
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, DRY CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY AND EACH NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST NIGHT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FROST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LIMIT OR PROHIBIT AREAS OF
FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE IDEAL SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FREEZE HEADLINES. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES OF GARRETT
AND WESTERN ALLEGANY, WESTERN MINERAL, WESTERN GRANT, PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IN
TERMS OF WEATHER, MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, NOT
JUST THIS AFTERNOON BUT EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
A CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAYTIME, AND THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME AREAS COULD REACH 80 ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW EXACTLY THE TROUGH EVOLVES, BUT A FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PIVOT THROUGH, BUT OVERALL
THESE DAYS SHOULD BE DRIER.
AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, AND
DEPENDING ON TIMING, POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND BACK DOWN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE MRB TERMINAL AND PERHAPS
THE IAD AND BWI TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING PRECIPITATION. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY SATURDAY, REMAINING
LIGHT BLOWING 5-10 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH MRB ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. A BRIEF WINDOW OF GUSTS 15 TO
20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
THAT SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL OCCUR IS LOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE POSSIBLE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW
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