612
FXUS61 KLWX 231951
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE AS
OF 2PM SHOWS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A JET PIVOTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO
STABLE AIR MASS SO INCREASED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH WIND CHILLS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTO THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S IN NORTHERN MARYLAND TO LOW 60S IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA. CLOUD
COVER BEGINS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PIVOTS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. BY SUNRISE,
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL HOVERING
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. EITHER WAY, NO IMPACTS FROM WINTRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. A
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM MID 40S IN NORTHERN MARYLAND TO LOW 60S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM ON
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50. A
PREPONDERANCE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE FAVOR AN AREA FROM I-70 NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE SETUP IS
CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR A WINTRY MIX DOMINATED BY FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUEBEC WHILE A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ARCS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULTANT COLD-
AIR DAMMING (CAD) SIGNATURE IS QUITE FAVORABLE TO SUCH SETUPS. LOW-
LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE WHILE WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
THIS LAYER USHERS IN MILDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE (925-850 MB LAYER).
MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT SOME SNOW TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND GIVEN
COLDER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ALL AND ALL, TRAVELERS WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM IN THEIR PLANS FOR FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS PRECIPITATION THREAT, IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S (40S ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES).
THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY THIS BECOMES A
COLD RAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR
WORKS INTO THE PICTURE. FORECAST LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO 30S.
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH, SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BECOME MORE LIMITED, CLOUDS SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. THIS COMES WITH
HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NORTH OF I-66, TO MID 40S TO 50S
OFF TO THE SOUTH. A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WHICH YIELDS
RAIN CHANCES AMIDST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S (LOW
60S ACROSS THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS). A
PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN ENSUES BEHIND THIS STRONG UPPER TROUGH. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH TEENS TO 20S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS RATHER SCANT SO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS START OUT LIGHT THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KCHO WHERE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A
WINTRY MIX MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE METRO TERMINALS
WITH KCHO AND KMRB EXPECTED TO HAVE RAIN. RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, ALTHOUGH A
RAIN/SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A WINTRY MIX,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50. LENGTHY RESTRICTIONS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLS AMIDST THE LOW
CEILINGS. SOME CEILING RESTRICTIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO PORTIONS
OF SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A BOUNDARY OVER THE
CAROLINAS. BY SUNDAY, RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THUS, EXPECT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3PM AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SCA GOING INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY, WINDS NEAR SCA
CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. ADDITIONAL
SCA'S ARE POSSIBLE.
WHILE A WINTRY MIX MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WIND FIELDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANY
THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-538>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
534-537-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ535>537.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO
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