081  
FXUS61 KLWX 191957  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
257 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OBSERVED OVER OUR AREA AS MID  
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
AND THEN OFFSHORE. BRIEF MOMENTS OF SUN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT  
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER  
JET AND MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVE ACROSS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS  
EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND A FEW ISOLATED SNOW  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES WILL EXPAND NORTH AND THEN SLOWLY  
EAST INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S,  
AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE MOVING EAST  
AS IT BUILDS INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE GRADUALLY  
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S  
AND 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITTING OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE  
TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. DRY  
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE  
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS, AND THEN IN  
THE 40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT  
TO ENTER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. WHILE THE MORNING HOURS  
ON FRIDAY LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY,ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO AREA,  
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE  
APPALACHIANS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER  
OF THE DAY ELSEWHERE.  
 
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DAMP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL  
CAUSE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY SATURDAY. PRECIP MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE  
APPALACHIANS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO  
REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO  
REMAIN SEASONABLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE  
BECOMING OVERCAST. HOWEVER, CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
VFR. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS TOMORROW,  
UP TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  
 
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE  
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS  
RETURN INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ANOMALIES SEEM TO HAVE TURNED THE CORNER AND ARE SLOWLY DECREASING,  
BUT SINCE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT, THERE WON'T  
BE DRAMATIC DECREASES. THEREFORE HAVE ADVISORIES CONTINUING THROUGH  
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD  
FALL JUST SHORT (INCLUDING THE WARNING AT STRAITS POINT). STRONGER  
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DO A BETTER JOB DRIVING OUT THE EXCESS WATER  
ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH STRAITS POINT COULD COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD  
AGAIN FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.  
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ014.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ011-018.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
MDZ508.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ057.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ054.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR  
ANZ530>543.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IMR  
NEAR TERM...IMR  
SHORT TERM...IMR  
LONG TERM...MSS  
AVIATION...MSS/IMR  
MARINE...MSS/IMR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS  
 
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