308  
FXUS61 KLWX 020158  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
858 PM EST THU DEC 1 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING  
EAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH  
THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT  
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
CURRENT (AS OF 845 PM) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WV WILL PROGRESS  
EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW  
MOST LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE AND GO CALM. AS A RESULT, WE'LL HAVE  
AN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS  
DISSIPATE. THE PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST (WHICH WAS AT  
OR BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. TEMPERATURES  
ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S  
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH UPPER 20S AND  
LOWER 30S IN DOWNTOWN DC AND BALTIMORE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE LINGERING HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH  
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL  
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE  
WEST THAT WILL CLOSE IN ON THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BRINGING  
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE  
FRONT APPROACHES, RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE  
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED ALONG  
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MEDIUM TO SHORT-RANGE  
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT,  
WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. THERE MAY BE A DOWNSLOPING  
COMPONENT TO THE WIND THAT MAY ENABLE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS JUST  
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FURTHER  
WEST.  
 
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AND  
BUILD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN  
PLACE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OVER CANADA WILL BE COMPETING  
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 30S FOR MOST. HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT  
NORTH UP THROUGH OUR AREA INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES  
IN THE 30S TO 40S. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN, BUT THOSE WEST  
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORTHERN MARYLAND MAY SEE A  
WINTRY MIX.  
 
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO 30S FOR MOST BOTH TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS  
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, BEFORE GOING CALM  
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES OFFSHORE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE  
WEST AND MOVE FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. SUB- VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY OF THE TERMINALS DURING THIS  
TIME. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SOME GUSTS WILL REACH  
25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND  
LIGHTER WINDS.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING  
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND  
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TURNING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAINING GUSTY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED AS  
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST, AND AN  
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUB-SCA CRITERIA WINDS ARE LIKELY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME,  
AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM ANNAPOLIS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,  
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW BECAUSE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY TURN WEST  
OF SOUTH SATURDAY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL  
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO FALL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ADM  
NEAR TERM...KJP  
SHORT TERM...ADM  
LONG TERM...AVS  
AVIATION...AVS/KJP/ADM  
MARINE...AVS/ADM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab MD Page
The Nexlab WV Page Main Text Page