583
FXUS61 KLWX 071450
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A PAIR OF STRONG
COLD FRONTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT (IN METEOROLOGICAL DEFINITION) IS IN THE PROCESS
OF MIXING OUT THE SHALLOW COLDER AIR MASS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AS OF 930 AM. AS NOTED IN AREAS TO THE WEST, THERE IS A
PRETTY DRAMATIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS AS THIS OCCURS, AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL WARM TO THE 50S AND AN INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF I-66 ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH MAXIMUMS IN THE MID
60S POSSIBLE. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MAKE FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE GUSTINESS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DROP TO THE 30S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE EVENTUAL RETURN OF LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABUNDANT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.
A NOTICEABLE BREEZE DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TIGHTENS. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35-40 MPH. SOME SHOWERS WILL REACH
THE ALLEGHENIES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. VERY
WARM TEMPS FRIDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS PRECIP
ENSUES, VERY MILD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTING FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LKS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN HALF TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE
RAIN ENDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COOLER AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN NW FLOW. A COOLER AND
DRY PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, BUT STILL WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1445Z, A COLD FRONT IS MIXING OUT A SHALLOW COLDER
AIRMASS ROOTED ACROSS THE METRO TERMINALS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
SOME TURBULENT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE
ERODING INVERSION. BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BECOME BKN AT TIMES (EXCEPT
CHO) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY. BLUSTERY SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS RETURN. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY IN
NW FLOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...ADS/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KRR
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KRR
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