172
FXUS61 KLWX 281925
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
225 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETREATING FRONT COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A RETREATING FRONT COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY,
EVENTUALLY WEDGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
OVERRUNING PRECIPITAITON IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TUE,
EARLIER IN SOME MODELS, AND OVERRUN SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SINCE THE SOURCE OF COLD AIR WILL BE
RETREATING TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY, THE DURATION OF WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS OF
ICE, EXCEPT PERHAPS AT ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE TREES AND POWER
LINES. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TUE WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING WITH PRECIP TURNING INTO ALL
RAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. OUR LATEST ICE TOTALS ONLY SHOW AMOUNTS
IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP MID-WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, WHICH
HAD BEEN OVER THE WEST COAST, WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR 500MB HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 SIGMA RANGE TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD YIELD
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
PRESENCE OF A LINGERING WARM FRONT NEARBY COULD LEND SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW WARM WE GET, BUT ASSUMING IT DOES CLEAR TO
OUR NORTH, TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY BY
THURSDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS PERHAPS NEARING 80. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR TO
OUR NORTH, BUT RATHER LINGERS NEARBY, DAILY SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER, AND LESS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL
VA INTO SOUTHERN MD. STILL TOO EARLY TO BE SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN,
BUT A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE WARMER SOLUTIONS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DRY CDFNT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHIFTING WINDS AND BRINGING MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL PICK FROM THE
NORTH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER AT MRB AND BWI AND MTN IF AREAS OF RAIN
OCCUR ALONG A FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHERLY CHANNELING BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. SCAS LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY.
NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
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