315
FXUS61 KLWX 110023
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
823 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE
CROSSING OVERNIGHT. FREEZE WATCHES FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MORE RAIN CHANCES AND
WARMING TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER & T-STORM CHANCES MIDWEEK.
2) LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE WEST OF BLUE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER & T-STORM
CHANCES MIDWEEK.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE
SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MD
SOUTHWEST INTO DC AND DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY/CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DIRECTLY ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH COVERAGE DWINDLING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE
FRONT HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TO
PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-66/US-50). THE ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEEPER DIGGING TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST VA TOWARD THE LOWER DELMARVA.
18Z HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND
EAST FROM SOUTHWEST VA AROUND MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
EXITING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER DELMARVA/VA TIDEWATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-66/US-50 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE, OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE SETTING US UP FOR FROST AND FREEZE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS THE AREA. THESE FRONTS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY WITH NOT MUCH OF A
COOLDOWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THE AREA AND OVERALL COVERAGE.
ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A TRAILING SPOKE
OF ENERGY KICKS ON THROUGH.
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY TREND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE WEST OF BLUE RIDGE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES.
A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT (INCLUDING THOSE ALONG US-219 AND US-220) LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FROST OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NEAR AND WEST OF I-81 MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE RATHER IMPACTFUL GIVEN
THE FACT THAT WE ARE APPROACHING MID-MAY AT THIS POINT WHICH IS
A COUPLE WEEKS TO A MONTH PAST THE MEDIAN LAST FREEZE FOR THESE
AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF A FEW BLIPS
OF MVFR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR GIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ENSUED AT
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST OF IAD TOWARD MRB WITH VARIABLE WINDS
FROM BWI/DCA/CHO GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW SAGGING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH 02Z WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY AT
TERMINALS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KIAD/KDCA DOWN TO KCHO/KRIC.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH LOOKS
TO TRAVERSE THE SLOWLY SAGGING FRONT MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN
10Z-18Z. ANY RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATE AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE BAY AND ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SERIES OF
FRONTS BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A NORTHERLY CHANNELING. WINDS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AND ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. A
FEW SMWS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...CPB/EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
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