783
FXUS61 KLWX 120004
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT INCREASED
PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER DUE IN PART TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, WINDS, AND INCOMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT.
SYNOPTICALLY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN
CANADA WITH A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S
COAST. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE NOTHING MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-66/US-50 CORRIDOR.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN VA
AND CENTRAL MARYLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. RIDGES AND URBAN AREAS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WHILE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DESPITE THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THIS IS DUE PART TO THE STOUT
560-568 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS YET TO BUCKLE OVER THE
REGION. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER CENTRAL VA, THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AND ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS REGION WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT.
MEANWHILE, NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MD WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
REDUCED WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE FOR THOSE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE DRY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAD WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE WARM FRONT FROM LIFTING NORTH AS QUICKLY, THUS KEEPING US
COOL AND CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. MORNING STRATUS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY SCOURING OUT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SUN IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S,
BUT SOME PLACES COULD EASILY STAY IN THE 50S IF IT REMAINS CLOUDY
ALL DAY.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS COULD PERHAPS LINGER INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY MOVING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL GREATLY INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 70S.
A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY, AND INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHAT DRIVES OUR STORM SYSTEM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BREAK OUT IN
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, AND MOST COULD STAY DRY.
BY SUNDAY, THIS IS WHEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, AND IT
COULD COME WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EITHER WAY, RAIN
IS LIKELY, AND WE COULD GET QUITE A BIT OF IT. A GOOD HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST, WHICH SHOULD BE HELPFUL IN
TERMS OF RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AT LEAST BRIEFLY. IF WE ARE
ABLE TO TAP INTO MORE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY, THE SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH WITH THE
TROUGH TRENDING A BIT MORE POSITIVELY TILTED, THAT THREAT MAY BE A
BIT MORE LIMITED THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THIS IS A
DAY 6 FORECAST, AND MANY DETAILS CAN, AND LIKELY WILL, CHANGE. THIS
ALL BEING SAID, THE STORM PREDICTION HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN
THEIR DAY 6 OUTLOOK.
CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL SIT BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES WITH WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED
FRONT NEARBY. MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND AT MOST
TERMINALS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT
REMAINING NEARBY. TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 (I.E KCHO AND KSHD)
MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IFR DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH COULD BE AN ISSUE AT KDCA, KMTN, AND KBWI DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH ONSHORE MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THEN LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
ACTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT
SATURDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY.
MARINE
A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS A BRIEF WINDOW (2-4 HOURS) OF 15 TO 20 KNOT
GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MIDDAY MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. THINGS LOOK TO BE STABLE ENOUGH TO WARD OFF ANY WIDESPREAD
SCAS GIVEN THE WARM AIR OVER COLD WATERS. AN MWS MAY BE WARRANTED
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF GUSTS.
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS SET TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. DO THINK SATURDAY'S THREAT
COULD BE MITIGATED WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S
STILL. THIS WILL MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS, BUT COULD STILL BE CLOSE TO SCA NEAR THE SHORELINES.
GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE COMING DAYS, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE INCREASE IN MARINERS ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS THIS COMING WEEK. HOWEVER, REMEMBER THAT JUST BECAUSE THE
AIR IS WARM, IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE WATER IS WARM. MARINERS SHOULD
BE AWARE OF THE THREATS OF BOATING IN COLD WATER AND TAKE THE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOURSELVES AND YOUR PASSENGERS. VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLDWATER FOR MORE INFO.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH LOW RH AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH THE
WEDNESDAY FORECAST IS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES AND RH ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE AN SPS WOULD
BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY, BUT NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THE WIND THREAT
BEFORE ANY DECISION IS MADE ON THAT LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL SIT
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH RECOVERIES BETWEEN 65 TO 80
PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD, RH WILL GRADUALLY RISE IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THURSDAY BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, RH VALUES GOING UP SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK. FURTHER EVALUATION WILL
BE NEEDED IF THERE ARE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS
HOWEVER, BECAUSE FUELS WILL ONLY GET DRIER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES,
SUNNY SKIES, AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN REMAINS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...AVS/KLW
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...CJL/EST
MARINE...CJL/EST
FIRE WEATHER...CJL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page