515
FXUS61 KLWX 281839
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
139 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY BEYOND A COLD FRONT BEFORE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND, WITH THE AXIS HAVING NOW MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH, SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST PA. THESE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
EASTERN WV AND WESTERN MD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVEN
SEEING SOME FLURRIES MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR
STILL, WHICH HAS LASTED A LOT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. WENT
AHEAD AND CARRIED THIS THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
DRAWING IT BACK WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN ON PAR WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH MOST SPOTS
AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS (40S IN THE METROS AND 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS). THIS HAS LEAD TO WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE
20S FOR MOST (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE MOST LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A COLD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
NEXT, POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY
STRUGGLE DUE TO ONGOING DRY AIR. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES START EARLY
ENOUGH IN THE MORNING, IT WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. LATEST THINKING FAVORS MOSTLY RAIN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS, MIXING WITH SOME SLEET/SNOW EARLY ON. THE
RIDGETOPS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SOME ICE ACCRETION
FROM FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW, THAT IS WHERE THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE IN THE LATEST FORECAST. GENERALLY EXPECT THIS EVENT TO HAVE
ITS HIGHEST IMPACTS ABOVE 2000 FEET OR SO. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW
COLD IT WILL BE LEADING INTO THIS EVENT, IF THINGS DO START
WINTRY IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL, THINK THERE WILL BE SOME ICING
ISSUES ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO PLAN
AHEAD IF YOU ARE TRAVELING SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHING THROUGH. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND
20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE REGION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK FROM THE GULF, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., THEN OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE
CAROLINAS, IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AND
FOR HOW LONG, THERE COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE ELEVATED VALLEYS ALONG/WEST OF I-81.
THERE IS ALSO GOING TO BE AN AREA OF SNOW, POSSIBLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS, THOUGH IF THE WAA IS STRONG
ENOUGH IT COULD JUST PUSH THE RAIN/SNOW MORE NORTH THAN CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW'S TRACK, AND THUS POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FOR OUR AREA. AREAS EAST OF I-95 WILL BE RAIN, THOUGH MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. EVENTUALLY THE WARM AIR
TAKES OVER AND PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, THOUGH SNOW LIKELY PERSISTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES.
THE PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR LINGERING AT THE
SURFACE, AND THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WINTRY
PRECIP IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE
MUCH TUESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F.
PRECIP COMES TO AN END TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT IS GOING TO BE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A WINTRY MIX IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL MOSTLY FAVOR RAIN FARTHER EAST. THE
BEST SHOT AT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE AT MRB DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
COLD RAIN. THIS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND
30 KNOTS OUT OF THE W TO WNW. A FEW GUSTS HAVE BEEN AROUND 35
KNOTS, BUT HAVE NOT NEEDED A GALE WARNING, AS THESE HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED IN NATURE. AN SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. LIGHT TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY, THEN
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON, SO ANY ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD COME TO AN
END. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH, THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN
IF WINDS WILL REACH SCA LEVELS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR
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