841
FXUS61 KLWX 181916
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEARBY FRONT BRINGS RENEWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DECREASING CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND
60S. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE HIGH'S CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH LOW
CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIALLY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 70S AFTER
STARTING THE DAY IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY, CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, BUT IT WILL TURN A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE
80S. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ONCE WE REACH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOW DISTURBANCES PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH IN WESTERLY FLOW.
THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE ALSO DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW
THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY,
BLOWING AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT IN SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY. ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST ON
SUNDAY, AND THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY. ON SATURDAY,
EAST WINDS GUST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY, BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
NORTH WINDS LEAD TO DECREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SENSITIVE LOCATIONS INCLUDING ANNAPOLIS, STRAITS
POINT, AND ALEXANDRIA WILL REACH ACTION STAGE DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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