313
FXUS61 KPHI 112349
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
649 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
TRACK OFFSHORE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE THREAT OF SNOW SQUALLS
IS DIMINISHING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT.
2) UNSETTLED WINTRY WEATHER WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT.
A STRONG, NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH
THE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA (NORTH AND WEST), AND EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS, OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PRETTY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH A 40 KT OR SO LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE WAS EVEN BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 100 TO 200 J/KG.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DRYING UP ON RADAR, BUT THE BEST
CHANCES THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS,
FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE CRASHED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BETWEEN THAT AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID- ATLANTIC. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, AND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CARBON AND MONROE
COUNTIES. FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE. WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WINTRY WEATHER WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
A FEW LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MAY ARRIVE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS
AMPLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS PRESENTLY TO OFFER
ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR RAINS AND SNOWS DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS. OUR TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THESE
TIMES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE, CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED, N/W
COUNTIES AND MOSTLY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW FOR S/E AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...ANY SHRA/SHSN WILL END BY 02Z. VFR OTHERWISE. W-NW
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS, DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z,
AND EVENTUALLY DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER 09Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS IN
THE MORNING, BACKING TO THE SW AT 5 TO 10 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY: SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH LOWER CIGS AND
RAINS (S/E) AND SNOWS POSSIBLE N/W.
MARINE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS EVENING. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. NW WINDS RAMP UP TO 20 TO
30 KT WITH 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING, WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT OR SO WITH 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT, LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN (MAINLY) ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINS AND SNOWS POSSIBLE WED THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
DISCUSSION...MPS/OHARA/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...MPS/OHARA/KRUZDLO
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