405
FXUS61 KPHI 201615
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE W THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD AND HUMID, BUT NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING
ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLOWLY DRYING LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE STILL A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. IT WILL REMAIN MILD HOWEVER WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
RURAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP MORE THAN
PRESENTLY EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DUE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER, THE LONG TERM WAS NOT UPDATED ON
THIS SHIFT. IT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY. THE EXTENDED STARTS
OFF UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SPINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN US AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC AND CROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AROUND MIDWEEK. BEYOND MIDWEEK, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND SHOWS
VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO HAVING A
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS SHOWERY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS ON MONDAY. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AFTER MIDWEEK, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO STATE THAT
ANY DAY WILL DRY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN MOST DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED. DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE THE END OF
THE WEEK, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO
ARRIVE. THE COOLER DAYS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR APRIL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY
LIGHT S/SE WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT LIMITED CONFID IN
OCCURRENCE ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS
MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR
LOWER FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR LATER. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON DE BAY UNTIL 4PM. SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE
OCEAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE DELAWARE BAY.
TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERN REMAINS FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE EASTERN SHORES
OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HOWEVER, LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THE HIGH
TIDE SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
FINALLY, HAVE SEEN SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE NORTHERN SHORES
OF BARNEGAT BAY AND ASSOCIATED BACK BAYS TODAY. WITH PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING, EXPECTING MORE OF THIS THROUGH TODAY.
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...MPS/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O'HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/MPS/O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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