909
FXUS61 KPHI 261018
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION WITH 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL IN THE 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS GENERALLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN PA
AND FAR NORTHERN NJ THROUGH DAYBREAK. EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND WITHER THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT
THE SOUTHERN TRAILING AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE PHILLY METRO AREA BY DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH, ISOLATED HEAVIER POCKETS AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ
THROUGH SUNRISE. SUPPOSE SOME BRIEF PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE
IN LOW- LYING AREAS, BUT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W, ESPECIALLY AS SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN TO FAR EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER, FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PA AND FAR NORTHERN NJ, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OH VLY
SLOWLY CRAWLS TO THE E. THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR/S OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE DAY SATURDAY,
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1/2 INCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY FOR LOCALES NEAR/S OF I-78 (WITH MUCH LESS
FURTHER NORTH). LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN DELMARVA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST AND PERSISTENCE OF
ACTIVITY MAY ALLOW FOR AMOUNTS NEAR/GREATER THAN AN INCH.
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, AND
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
90S AND MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (>50%) OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 95 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE TO MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING. BY MID-MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS
CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WELL, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL TREND INCREASINGLY DRIER BY MID MORNING AND BEYOND. THIS
BEING SAID, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR SOUTHERN SITES OF KILG/KMIV/KACY BETWEEN ABOUT 23Z-03Z, SO
HAVE ADDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE,
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOWARD
LATE IN THE DAYTIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL
GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW, OR PERHAPS EVEN THE W, BY THE AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY STAYING AROUND 10KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE
TOWARD/PAST 00Z, GOING LIGHT/VRB AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
A MOISTENING PROFILE.
TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MAINLY AFTER
06Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK FOR
SOUTHERN SITES. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR/AFTER
DAYBREAK, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER POCKETS OF PCPN WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBY WITH BR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS RATHER LOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF MAINLY 1-2 FEET, WITH UP TO 2 TO 3
FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD NEAR THE ATLANTIC CITY AND OCEAN
CITY SHORES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND
DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 2 FEET WITH AROUND A 6 SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.
WINDS SHOULD BE MORE EASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
JERSEY SHORE BEACHES WHILE MORE SOUTHERLY FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE
A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AT SOME BEACHES, CONTINUED
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR
BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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