813
FXUS61 KPHI 200752
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND MIDDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS LOCATED IN OUR REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WAS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY AROUND 3:30
AM. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF THE COAST BY 9:00
AM.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND MIDDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE THE
BOUNDARY, THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE 60S IN OUR
REGION TODAY, WITH READINGS NOT GETTING ABOVE THE 50S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PRECEDE THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND IT SHOULD MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS IN THE LIFT AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL FEATURE. ALSO, THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
A WEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S IN THE POCONOS AND
FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT, EXPECT A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, KEEPING DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AND REINFORCE
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S (UPPER 30S ACROSS NE
PENNSYLVANIA) ON SUNDAY.
THE GRADIENT IS PRETTY TIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, AND WE MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY IN THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUN WILL BE SHINING BUT WITH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 40S TO 50S, THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS OUTSIDE.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN FOR MONDAY HELPING TO MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SUNDAY, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE BY AROUND 5
DEGREES OR SO.
TUESDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. IT'S
A PRETTY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE WITH THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WE SHOULD REMAIN NICE AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
COLDER AIR WILL DIP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...SHOWERS ENDING BY 13Z. CEILINGS VARYING FROM VFR TO
MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z, THEN VFR FROM AROUND 16Z ONWARD.
SOUTHWEST WIND 6 TO 12 KNOTS BECOMING WEST AROUND 15Z TO 17Z
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WEST WIND 6 TO 12 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 15 KNOTS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND 8 KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 8 KNOTS OR LESS.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL
ABOUT 6:00 AM ON OUR OCEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT, A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THAT TIME. THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR DELAWARE BAY UNTIL NOON.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE GUSTS BEGINNING NEAR DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE LIKELY ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY...A WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ431-453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
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