449  
FXUS61 KPHI 282007  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
307 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN TONIGHT DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH  
TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. PRONOUNCED  
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH WINDY AND  
RAINY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PASS THROUGH SOMETIME  
DURING THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND NOW OUR REGION IS  
IN THE GUSTY, DRYING NW FLOW BEHIND IT. CLOUDS HAVE HAD THE UPPER  
HAND MUCH OF THE DAY, SO FAR, BUT MORE BREAKS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE  
SUNSET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S/E AREAS. WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 25  
KTS MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THOSE TOO WILL DIMINISH  
AS WE GET TOWARDS SUNSET.  
 
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THIS HIGH.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S N/W AND LOW 30S FOR OTHER AREAS. WENT  
A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE PREVAILING GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
OVER THE REGION. UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW  
50S ACROSS DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WHILE NW AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY  
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BECOME S OR SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN  
SHOWERS ENTER INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK, BUT MOST OF US  
WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE  
REGION. SOME 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NW NJ  
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.  
 
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL  
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST (OR SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST) AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER  
60S ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS  
INCREASE. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.  
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN FOCUSED WITH AN AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, AS CONVECTIVE  
ELEMENTS WILL BE STRONGER IN SPOTS. ATTM, A GENERAL 0.25 TO 1.00" IS  
FAVORED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS  
ISN'T A BAD THING SINCE THIS AREA HAS SEEN RAINFALL DEFICITS OVER  
THE LAST 90 DAYS. WPC HAS THE REGION NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AND I-  
195 IN NJ DEMARCATED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. ON THE  
FLIP SIDE, SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DEMARCATED IN GENERAL THUNDER.  
EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AHEAD, ALONG, AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS  
THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT KICKS IN AS AIR PRESSURE QUICKLY RISES.  
THE 12Z BUFKIT RUNS AREN'T SCREAMING WIND ADVISORY, BUT IT'S  
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. REGARDLESS, WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLE.  
 
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION  
WILL COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST OR  
NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE, A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND, AND BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S  
NORTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE EITHER JUST OVER OR OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN CONUS. OUR  
REGION WILL LOOK TO STILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SURFACE HIGH  
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT AS TIME PASSES AND THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO  
PUSH EAST, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. MOST  
GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATES SOME FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE  
WEEKEND PERIOD WHICH WILL OF COURSE MEAN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT. THERE IS A LARGE  
UNCERTAINTY WITH GUIDANCE TODAY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL IMPACT  
FOR THE WEEKEND. I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORE  
WESTERN AREAS STARTING 06Z SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED  
FOR THE REGION UNTIL THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD, BUT I REMAIN  
UNCERTAIN IN THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO POP CHANCES AND TIMING.  
SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TODAY DOES HAVE THE FRONT PASSING  
THROUGH LATER ON DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN WHICH CASE POPS  
MAY BE INCREASED INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINNING SUNDAY TIME  
FRAME LATER ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL  
PASSAGE BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW LONG IT WILL INFLUENCE THE  
REGION BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT APPROACH. HAVE  
LEFT NBM POP GUIDANCE IN FOR MONDAY TO REPRESENT THE NEXT FRONT BUT  
WILL NOT EVEN DISCUSS HERE DUE TO AN EVEN LARGER UNCERTAINTY.  
 
OF NOTE, I AM NOT SEEING ANY INDICATION OF SNOW OR MIX  
PRECIPITATION FOR ANY OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WHICH POTENTIALLY  
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. EXPECTING BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY BUT THIS DEPENDS ON FRONTAL  
PASSAGE TIMING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO  
FOLLOW AFTER THE WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THRU SUNSET...BKN CLOUDINESS DECREASING THRU THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DIMINISHING  
TOWARDS SUNSET.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR. SKIES BECOMING SKC THRU THE EVENING. DECREASING  
WINDS.  
 
TUESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AT KRDG AND KABE. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  
RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SE  
MORNING WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS, BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD  
FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, AT LEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.  
BECOMING VFR. SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 KTS WITH  
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WE'LL KEEP THE SCA FLAG ON THE WATERS 'AS IS' FOR NOW WITH WINDS  
SLOW TO DIMINISH. SCA SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO THE LATE  
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES POSSIBLE. S WINDS IN THE  
MORNING 20 TO 35 KTS, BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN THE MORNING, BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES POSSIBLE. SW WINDS  
25 TO 35 KTS, BECOMING NW. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN THE EVENING,  
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. SEAS 3 TO  
5 FT.  
 
FRIDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.  
 
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.  
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-  
450>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WUNDERLIN  
NEAR TERM...OHARA  
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO  
LONG TERM...WUNDERLIN  
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/OHARA/WUNDERLIN  
MARINE...KRUZDLO/OHARA/WUNDERLIN  
 
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