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FXUS61 KPHI 161005
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MAINLY FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2. A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, MAINLY FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS, AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
RESULTING IN A BEAUTIFUL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. FORCING IS NOT VERY STRONG
THOUGH WITH THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE LACKING, SO
NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. COVERAGE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA,
BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN IS EXPECTED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH A TWO PACK OF RELATIVELY QUIET DAYS EXPECTED.
A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY
AND PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE
PASSING FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A
BIT ON FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
COOLER AIRMASS LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, WHERE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS ON
SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MONITORING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES IN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 50-80% POPS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS A HUMID AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH A SLOW MOVING OR STALLED BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOW IN METEOROLOGICAL FALL, AND THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH
WILL FACTOR INTO RAINFALL RATES. NBM PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR
GREATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS AROUND 35-55%. STILL IN THE DAY 5
TO 7 RANGE WITH THIS STRETCH, SO DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST AND THINGS COULD CHANGE.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK UNTIL A SWEEPING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. MOST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THAT FRONT COMING THROUGH SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND KRDG/KABE BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN. LIGHT WINDS 5
KT OR LESS FAVORING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KRDG/KABE BUT CHANCES REMAIN
LOW (15-25%). SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THOUGH RESTRICTIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY (LESS
THAN 10%).
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
(60-70%) ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY...BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 1-2 FEET ARE
FORECAST WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH AND A 6-8 SECOND
PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER SIMILAR
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIOD ARE FORECAST. THEREFORE, A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST AT ALL NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...GORSE/HOEFLICH
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