233
FXUS61 KPHI 071728
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND TUESDAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, WITH TUESDAY BEING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL COOL OFF A BIT,
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, THE DELAWARE BAY, AND THE PHILLY METRO
AREA IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
LEADING TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUING WARMING TREND WITH CONDITIONS ALSO TURNING A BIT
MORE HUMID AS DEW POINTS INCREASE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
COULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE POCONOS INTO NW NJ WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE 15 TO
30% POPS. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTH. THAT SAID, EVEN FOR THIS TIME
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW AS SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40-60% RANGE. CURRENTLY, THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS APPEARS RELATIVELY
LOW.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM AT TIMES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-8 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW TSTMS.
FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KT.
SEAS OF 1-2 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....WINDS/SEAS INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE BY LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT THE
WATERS.
FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR LABOR DAY, LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH WINDS 10 MPH OR
LESS AND BREAKING WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES EVEN WITH A 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
BREAKING WAVES AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET WITH ANOTHER 8 TO 9
SECOND PERIOD SWELL. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
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