373
FXUS61 KPHI 122303
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL LARGE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME. A DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM; NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD LAYERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT SSE/SE
FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SUPPLY MOISTURE
BEFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND/OR CALM WINDS TAKE HOLD. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SITUATION SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING MORE INLAND WITH TIME.
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY; MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60, WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY ON SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 80S, WHICH ARE AS MUCH
AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WASHES OUT
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WILL FOLLOW THE NBM
AND GO WITH NO POPS. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY SHOWER OR
TWO, SO WILL MONITOR HI-RES MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT, AS HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AT THE COASTS DURING
THE DAY, BUT WARMER AT NIGHT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES.
ONE THING TO MONITOR IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST INTO MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY
SPREAD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD EAST AND MOSTLY DOMINATE THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NEW WEEK. THAT AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL TRACK ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WEEK. WHILE THE STORM SHOULD STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
OCEAN, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE NBM AND WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. QPF FROM ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO REACH THE COAST SHOULD BE MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S, BUT COOLER ALONG THE COASTS, AND POSSIBLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT OFFSHORE LOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
IT WILL BE MUGGY, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS FAVORING A
SE/SSE DIRECTION 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT FIRST THEN LOOKING TO GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND/OR CALM. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG AND/OR A STRATUS LAYER TO FORM,
SPREADING MORE INLAND WITH TIME. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
REGARDING HOW LOW CONDITIONS GET BUT WE HAVE INDICATED TEMPO IFR
VISBYS IN THE TAF FOR MIV AND ACY FROM 08-12Z WITH TEMPO MVFR
FOR PNE AND TTN FOR THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. IT'S POSSIBLE THOUGH
THAT VISBYS GET LOWER AND THAT MIST/FOG IS MORE WIDESPREAD
AFFECTING THE OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ILG, PHL, RDG, AND ABE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING DETAILS OF
RESTRICTIONS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES.
SATURDAY...LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
DUE TO SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG, OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WSW TO S WINDS
5 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR/NSW DURING THE DAY, SUB-VFR AT
NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER IN
THE DAY INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE OF 2-3 FEET WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS ARE
FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR SUNDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 2-3 FEET WITH AN
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS ARE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/WUNDERLIN
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MPS/WUNDERLIN
MARINE...GUZZO/MPS/WUNDERLIN
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