156
FXUS61 KPHI 062324
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING EXPECTED
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SNOWFALL TONIGHT, HIGH WINDS AND EXTREME COLD
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTREME COLD WARNING VALID TIME WAS CHANGED TO START EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS, AND THE END TIME WAS PUSHED BACK
TO NOON SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY VALID TIME WAS CHANGED.
BOTH WIND HEADLINES FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEGIN AT 4 AM
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STORM, GALE, AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS VALID TIMES
WERE CHANGED. ALL MARINE WIND HAZARDS NOW BEGIN AT 4 AM
SATURDAY. THE STORM WARNING ENDS AT 4 AM SUNDAY, AND THE GALE
WARNING AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING END AT 10 AM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION TONIGHT, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
2. DANGEROUSLY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
3. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION COMES WITH A
MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW YORK TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS OF EASTERN PA, AND INTO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 PM, AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS AROUND/AFTER
8 PM. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY THE SAME, EXCEPT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE QPF
HAS INCREASED A BIT. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND A COATING TO AN INCH FOR MOST LOCALES. ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS, BUT WOULD MAINLY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN
NJ. NO WINTER HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED AS SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN
SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ACCOMPANIED WITH THE CLIPPER IS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 3-6 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A LOW END THREAT FOR SNOW
SQUALLS, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. WHILE
BOTH NAM/RAP GUIDANCE INDICATE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL (0-2KM) RH AND STRONG FORCING WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT, LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE POOR. HENCE, THE THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS SHOWN
IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SNSQ PARAMETER OUTPUT IS LOW/NON-EXISTENT.
HOWEVER, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE ISOLATED HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS AS MANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
WINDOW (HRW) MODELS HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS,
DIRECTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT ITSELF AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ARCTIC FRONT CLEARS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY. 925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES DROP
TO -18C TO -25C THROUGHOUT, AND AS A RESULT, THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THE CALENDAR DAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT,
AND THEN TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS
INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION AND AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ACROSS DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF NEW JERSEY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN START AND END
TIMES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. ALL WIND HAZARDS RUN FROM 4 AM
SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY,
RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -15 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND AS
LOW AS -5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS ON SATURDAY AND AS LOW AS -30 DEGREES SATURDAY
NIGHT. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -10
TO -20 DEGREES ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 10S TO LOW 20S, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING NEAR 10-20 MPH (GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH) WILL WILL RESULT
IN MAXIMUM DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND
WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO; AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FALL LINE AND AS LOW AS -15 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE ENDING OF THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING.
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE NEW WEEK
PROGRESSES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION COMES
WITH A MID- WEEK SYSTEM.
HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA, FINALLY DRAWING IN SOME
RELATIVELY WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD FOR THE
WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO EVEN LOW 40S IN DELMARVA, WHICH WILL BE QUITE WELCOME
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MID-WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE REGION. FOR DELMARVA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO PASS
SUFFICIENTLY FAR NORTH TO BRING PRIMARILY RAIN TO THIS AREA. FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION THOUGH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES IN, THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR
MAY LINGER NEAR THE SURFACE TO RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX. DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT OVERALL, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT, LIKELY
RESULTING IN FEWER IMPACTS IF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS PLAIN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW. IF THERE IS MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION, THEN
THIS MAY CHANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06-09Z. AFTER
09Z, ANTICIPATE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE QUICKLY TO
VFR AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WIND
AROUND 5 KT WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON ANY IFR OCCURRING AND TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR.
SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR THE
COAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS 40-50 KT PREVAILING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS EARLY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE (45-55% CHANCE).
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BEFORE ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30-40 KTS BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM.
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS BY DAWN SATURDAY IN WAKE OF
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET OVERNIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING LATE.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SEAS 5-9 FEET. MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THROUGH 10 AM
SUNDAY.
SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED.
REGARDING THE RIVER ICE THREAT...ICE HAS FORMED ACROSS AREA BAY
WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE HAS GROWN IN
THICKNESS ENOUGH TO START CAUSING RESTRICTIONS IN FLOW. AN
EXAMPLE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN AT THE TRENTON RIVER GAUGE. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS PRETTY MUCH ICE COVERED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TRENTON UPSTREAM TO ABOUT WASHINGTON
CROSSING.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT THAT'S NOT EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO
BREAK UP ICE. BUT AGAIN, THAT'S NOT IN THE FORECAST EITHER THIS
COMING WEEK.
AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE ICE EXPAND BEFORE IT
CONTRACTS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER DEEP FREEZE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN THE GROWTH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SEAS
LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ016-020>027.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-017>019.
DE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-451>455.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
DISCUSSION...AKL/DESILVA/MPS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/STAARMANN
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