955
FXUS61 KPHI 262026
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
426 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
TRANQUIL AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY BRINGING THE RETURN OF THE HUMIDITY BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS LEAD TO
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER DELMARVA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH UP
AND MINIMAL WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPS PEAK IN THE
MID 80S TODAY WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BEING THE HIGHS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE INITIATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE INLAND PUSH SHOULD BE LIMITED
BASED ON THE MARGINAL THERMAL GRADIENT. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S NORTHWEST, 60S ELSEWHERE.
IT SHOULD BE JUST AS PLEASANT BEGINNING SATURDAY AS IT WAS
TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE EARLY MORNING IN THE 60S WARMING INTO
THE LOW 80S BY MID AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE 35-40% RANGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY AND TOMORROW, CHANGES
WILL BE COMING AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER OUR REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND CUT-OFF IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
TO DEVELOP AND RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST BACK OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THERE WAS A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT IN THIS DEVELOPMENT, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. ALSO TENDED TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
ANTICIPATION THAT IF THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES, THERE WILL BE
MORE ONSHORE FLOW, THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THIS PERIOD IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND MID-WEEK WHICH ULTIMATELY MAY HAVE
A MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT DON'T LOOK TO PASS BY OUR REGION
UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER, AS SURFACE FLOW GENERALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR FRIDAY, THE RELIEF BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY BE CLOSE IF
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FROM THURSDAY.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... VFR. NORTH WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE EVENING. SEA/BAY BREEZE HAS INITIATED AND SHOULD CAUSE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT KACY/KMIV.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH THE LOSS OF
SUNLIGHT AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED
MONDAY...VFR LIKELY, SOME MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY AT KACY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS...
SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS WITH BREAKING WAVES
AROUND 1-2 FEET WITH A 7 TO 9 SECOND SWELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE S/SE BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH BREAKING WAVES 1-2 FEET AND A SWELL
CONTINUING AROUND 7 TO 9 SECONDS. FOR THIS REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW RISK FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/JOHNSON/RCM
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DESILVA/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DEAL/JOHNSON
MARINE...DEAL/FITZSIMMONS/JOHNSON
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