321
FXUS61 KPHI 222353
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES.
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES IN DELMARVA THIS EVENING BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.
2) FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY RIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND.
3) A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES IN DELMARVA THIS EVENING BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR COASTAL
MONMOUTH COUNTY SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY AND THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL DELMARVA. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH FALLING DEW POINTS. THIS IS HELPING TO
STABILIZE THINGS SO NO SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT'S STILL
A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND INTO SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE. FORTUNATELY, RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING OF
THESE STORMS AND THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN AFFECTING AREAS JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY. THAT
SAID, WE'LL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AS FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA
WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH A
SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BE
OFFSHORE BRINGING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO AN END BY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY RIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE, COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS, AND TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN OPEN WAVE, MID LEVEL, SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE RELATIVELY
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH, PRIMARILY
BECAUSE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION
BEFORE THIS TROUGH ARRIVES. ADDITIONALLY, AT THIS POINT THERE
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE.
THERE IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS SYSTEM,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS LIKELY TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW AND AT LEAST A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING
THIS AS AN OPEN WAVE, FAST MOVING TROUGH WITH ONLY A LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. OTHERS, MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF, DEPICT THE
MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW, AND THEN SLOWING
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN UNCERTAINTY, FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AS STORMS ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF EVEN MIV AND ACY. WINDS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10-20
MPH. BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-4 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND
PERIOD. WITH THE ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND AND MULTIPLE SWELL
GROUPS EXPECTED, WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR FRIDAY, VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED SO
WE'LL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES ONCE AGAIN.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/ROBERTSON
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