373  
FXUS61 KPHI 122303  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
703 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SEVERAL LARGE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION  
INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION  
AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME. A DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED  
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM; NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS  
EXPECTED.  
 
IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD LAYERS  
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT SSE/SE  
FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SUPPLY MOISTURE  
BEFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND/OR CALM WINDS TAKE HOLD. THE  
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SITUATION SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG/LOW  
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING MORE INLAND WITH TIME.  
 
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY; MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH  
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WARM AND MUGGY  
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS  
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60, WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE  
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.  
 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY ON SUNDAY.  
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 80S, WHICH ARE AS MUCH  
AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WASHES OUT  
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN  
THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH  
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WILL FOLLOW THE NBM  
AND GO WITH NO POPS. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY SHOWER OR  
TWO, SO WILL MONITOR HI-RES MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT, AS HIGHS WILL  
ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY.  
MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE  
60S THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AT THE COASTS DURING  
THE DAY, BUT WARMER AT NIGHT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE OCEAN  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
ONE THING TO MONITOR IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF  
COAST INTO MONDAY. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY  
SPREAD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED  
STATES WILL BUILD EAST AND MOSTLY DOMINATE THE AREA FOR MOST OF  
THE NEW WEEK. THAT AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL TRACK ALONG  
THE COAST DURING THE WEEK. WHILE THE STORM SHOULD STAY FAR  
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE  
OCEAN, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE NBM AND WILL  
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. QPF FROM ANY SHOWERS THAT  
DO REACH THE COAST SHOULD BE MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG AND LOW  
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOW 80S, BUT COOLER ALONG THE COASTS, AND POSSIBLY COOLER ON  
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT OFFSHORE LOW. LOW  
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.  
IT WILL BE MUGGY, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S  
TO LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS FAVORING A  
SE/SSE DIRECTION 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT FIRST THEN LOOKING TO GO  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND/OR CALM. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE  
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG AND/OR A STRATUS LAYER TO FORM,  
SPREADING MORE INLAND WITH TIME. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW  
REGARDING HOW LOW CONDITIONS GET BUT WE HAVE INDICATED TEMPO IFR  
VISBYS IN THE TAF FOR MIV AND ACY FROM 08-12Z WITH TEMPO MVFR  
FOR PNE AND TTN FOR THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. IT'S POSSIBLE THOUGH  
THAT VISBYS GET LOWER AND THAT MIST/FOG IS MORE WIDESPREAD  
AFFECTING THE OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED VFR  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ILG, PHL, RDG, AND ABE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE  
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING DETAILS OF  
RESTRICTIONS AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES.  
 
SATURDAY...LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING  
DUE TO SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG, OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WSW TO S WINDS  
5 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR/NSW DURING THE DAY, SUB-VFR AT  
NIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA  
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET  
EXPECTED.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER IN  
THE DAY INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF  
ZONE OF 2-3 FEET WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS ARE  
FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT  
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.  
 
FOR SUNDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 2-3 FEET WITH AN  
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS ARE FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THERE  
IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT  
ALL BEACHES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MPS  
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/WUNDERLIN  
SHORT TERM...MPS  
LONG TERM...MPS  
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MPS/WUNDERLIN  
MARINE...GUZZO/MPS/WUNDERLIN  
 
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