405  
FXUS61 KPHI 201615  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1215 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN  
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY SLOWLY PROGRESS  
THROUGH THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON.  
SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE W THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL  
REMAIN MILD AND HUMID, BUT NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
 
 
IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING  
ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLOWLY DRYING LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE STILL A  
SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. IT WILL REMAIN MILD HOWEVER WITH  
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN  
RURAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP MORE THAN  
PRESENTLY EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
DUE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER, THE LONG TERM WAS NOT UPDATED ON  
THIS SHIFT. IT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY. THE EXTENDED STARTS  
OFF UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SPINS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN US AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO NEW  
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC AND CROSS OUR AREA  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE ITS WAY INTO  
THE AREA LATE MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.  
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
AROUND MIDWEEK. BEYOND MIDWEEK, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND SHOWS  
VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO HAVING A  
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS SHOWERY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS ON MONDAY. WITH SO MUCH  
UNCERTAINTY AFTER MIDWEEK, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO STATE THAT  
ANY DAY WILL DRY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO  
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN MOST DAYS  
OF THE EXTENDED. DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE THE END OF  
THE WEEK, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO  
ARRIVE. THE COOLER DAYS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL  
NORMALS FOR APRIL WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD REMAINING ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL  
IMPROVE LATE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY  
LIGHT S/SE WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT LIMITED CONFID IN  
OCCURRENCE ATTM.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS  
MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO  
10 KNOTS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.  
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.  
 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR OR  
LOWER FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO  
10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR LATER. WEST  
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS.  
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WILL EXTEND THE SCA ON DE BAY UNTIL 4PM. SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE  
OCEAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN  
ELEVATED. SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.  
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SUB-ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE DELAWARE BAY.  
 
TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS  
AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.  
 
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
CONCERN REMAINS FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE EASTERN SHORES  
OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HOWEVER, LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THE HIGH  
TIDE SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 
FINALLY, HAVE SEEN SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE NORTHERN SHORES  
OF BARNEGAT BAY AND ASSOCIATED BACK BAYS TODAY. WITH PREVAILING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING, EXPECTING MORE OF THIS THROUGH TODAY.  
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH  
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-  
431.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON  
NEAR TERM...MPS/O'HARA  
SHORT TERM...O'HARA  
LONG TERM...MEOLA  
AVIATION...MEOLA/O'HARA  
MARINE...MEOLA/MPS/O'HARA  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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