449
FXUS61 KPHI 282007
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN TONIGHT DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH WINDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PASS THROUGH SOMETIME
DURING THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND NOW OUR REGION IS
IN THE GUSTY, DRYING NW FLOW BEHIND IT. CLOUDS HAVE HAD THE UPPER
HAND MUCH OF THE DAY, SO FAR, BUT MORE BREAKS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNSET ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S/E AREAS. WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 25
KTS MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THOSE TOO WILL DIMINISH
AS WE GET TOWARDS SUNSET.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THIS HIGH.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S N/W AND LOW 30S FOR OTHER AREAS. WENT
A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE PREVAILING GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
50S ACROSS DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WHILE NW AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BECOME S OR SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ENTER INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK, BUT MOST OF US
WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. SOME 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST (OR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST) AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN FOCUSED WITH AN AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, AS CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL BE STRONGER IN SPOTS. ATTM, A GENERAL 0.25 TO 1.00" IS
FAVORED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
ISN'T A BAD THING SINCE THIS AREA HAS SEEN RAINFALL DEFICITS OVER
THE LAST 90 DAYS. WPC HAS THE REGION NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AND I-
195 IN NJ DEMARCATED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DEMARCATED IN GENERAL THUNDER.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AHEAD, ALONG, AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT KICKS IN AS AIR PRESSURE QUICKLY RISES.
THE 12Z BUFKIT RUNS AREN'T SCREAMING WIND ADVISORY, BUT IT'S
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. REGARDLESS, WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLE.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE, A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S
NORTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EITHER JUST OVER OR OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN CONUS. OUR
REGION WILL LOOK TO STILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SURFACE HIGH
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT AS TIME PASSES AND THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. MOST
GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATES SOME FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST DURING THE
WEEKEND PERIOD WHICH WILL OF COURSE MEAN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT. THERE IS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH GUIDANCE TODAY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL IMPACT
FOR THE WEEKEND. I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORE
WESTERN AREAS STARTING 06Z SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE REGION UNTIL THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD, BUT I REMAIN
UNCERTAIN IN THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO POP CHANCES AND TIMING.
SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TODAY DOES HAVE THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATER ON DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN WHICH CASE POPS
MAY BE INCREASED INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGINNING SUNDAY TIME
FRAME LATER ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW LONG IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
REGION BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT APPROACH. HAVE
LEFT NBM POP GUIDANCE IN FOR MONDAY TO REPRESENT THE NEXT FRONT BUT
WILL NOT EVEN DISCUSS HERE DUE TO AN EVEN LARGER UNCERTAINTY.
OF NOTE, I AM NOT SEEING ANY INDICATION OF SNOW OR MIX
PRECIPITATION FOR ANY OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WHICH POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY BUT THIS DEPENDS ON FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
FOLLOW AFTER THE WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU SUNSET...BKN CLOUDINESS DECREASING THRU THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.
TONIGHT...VFR. SKIES BECOMING SKC THRU THE EVENING. DECREASING
WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KRDG AND KABE. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SE
MORNING WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS, BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, AT LEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.
BECOMING VFR. SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 KTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
WE'LL KEEP THE SCA FLAG ON THE WATERS 'AS IS' FOR NOW WITH WINDS
SLOW TO DIMINISH. SCA SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO THE LATE
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES POSSIBLE. S WINDS IN THE
MORNING 20 TO 35 KTS, BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN THE MORNING, BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES POSSIBLE. SW WINDS
25 TO 35 KTS, BECOMING NW. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN THE EVENING,
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT.
FRIDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...WUNDERLIN
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...WUNDERLIN
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/OHARA/WUNDERLIN
MARINE...KRUZDLO/OHARA/WUNDERLIN
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