653
FXUS61 KPHI 011740
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY
BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT.
2. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
3. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RELAX. THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS, WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-78, THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND MID 20S ACROSS DELMARVA.
ON MONDAY, HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID-MORNING,
AND INCREASE FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, A COLD DAY IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN NJ, AND ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BOTH BEHIND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, INITIALLY
AS SOME SNOW, BUT THEN AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH AND
OVERRIDES COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE, SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN
INCH, AND A LIGHT ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN THROUGHOUT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE WINTRY MIX MAY HOLD A BIT LONGER IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK.
A SPRING-LIKE WARMUP WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. FOR SOME
AREAS, HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY STARTING ON THURSDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE SEVERAL
IMPULSES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING RAIN FROM TIME
TO TIME, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS DELMARVA. THEN IT REALLY GETS WARM.
THE 01Z/01 NBM INDICATING A 20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER 65 ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-78, AND FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH DELMARVA. A WEAK COLD FRONT KNOCKS
TEMPERATURES DOWN BY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, THEN THE
WARMTH RETURNS FOR SATURDAY. THE 01Z/01 NBM INDICATING A 20 TO
40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 65 NORTH OF
I-78, AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND 60 TO 80 PERCENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH DELMARVA. SOME SPOTS, MAINLY INLAND, MAY
EXCEED 70!
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND AROUND 5 KT INITIALLY, BECOMING
NORTHEAST AFTER 12-15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
LATE IN LIGHT SN.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
RA/SN/FZRA TUESDAY MORNING, THEN RA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RA.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTH WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AND DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 3-4 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FEET. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BELOW
25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT. SEAS 3-5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/DESILVA/MPS
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/MPS
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