345  
FXUS61 KPHI 080739  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE  
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY  
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WAFFLE ACROSS THE MID  
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES  
ALOFT MOVE THROUGH.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS PAST EVENING HAS FIZZLED WITH  
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT  
REMAINS WARM AND VERY MUGGY THOUGH WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND  
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.  
 
THE OVERALL UNSETTLED, ACTIVE, AND TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN  
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL  
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA BUT WON'T ACTUALLY CROSS THROUGH  
THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE  
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN BOTH THE SEVERE AND HYDRO DEPARTMENTS  
ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-2.3 INCHES;  
TALL, SKINNY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG; AND RELATIVELY  
LOW UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 20 KT SUPPORTS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WHERE ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES  
ARE IN PLACE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH DRY AIR TO SPEAK OF IN THE  
DCAPE DEPARTMENT, HOWEVER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED  
WITH WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT  
WITH ANY STRONGER OR MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. AS A RESULT, THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE  
TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH  
FLOODING WITH MOST OF OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISKS FOR  
BOTH. AS A RESULT, A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN  
ISSUED THAT INCLUDES ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR CARBON  
AND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO  
MIDNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF CONVECTION, IT SHOULD STAY  
DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE COLD  
FRONT OVER OUR NW ZONES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. IT  
SHOULD THEN PUSH SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND  
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE  
BY LATE EVENING.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE  
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID  
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH TROPICAL DEW POINTS REMAINING IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE  
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON,  
KEPT CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES IN PLACE EXCEPT ADDED MORRIS COUNTY IN  
NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORY RUNS FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TUESDAY.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY WINDING DOWN BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD BEFORE TENDING TO  
STALL OVER SOUTHERN NJ INTO DELMARVA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE QUITE  
WEAK AND DIFFUSE AS FAR AS THERE REALLY BEING A TEMPERATURE AND DEW  
POINT GRADIENT ACROSS IT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND  
MUGGY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL BE LONG GONE, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS HUMIDITY WILL BE ACTED UPON BY DAYTIME HEATING  
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BOTH WED/THU. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONT  
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WILL FOCUS SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.  
WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY BUT JUST  
FOR DELMARVA WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS WILL ROUND OUT THE OTHER  
PERIODS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH INSTANCES OF FLASH  
FLOODING POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS  
NOT LIKELY, THERE COULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH  
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WED WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.  
READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST AREAS. APPARENT  
TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER WITH ALL THE HUMIDITY  
ABOUT. THE HIGHS FOR THU WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S/LOW  
80S FOR THE N AND W AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
THE PERIOD FROM THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK  
OVERALL RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SUMMER-LIKE PRECIPITATION, SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUING HIGH HUMIDITY.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MOST DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONGLY  
SYNOPTIC CUES TO ORGANIZE PRECIP, MOSTLY JUST SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN  
THE FLOW WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR DIFFICULT TIMING/PLACEMENT. WE  
STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH THE FORECAST WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE  
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. THOUGH, AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, IT  
WON'T BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY  
AROUND PEAK HEATING TIMES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF OVERNIGHT...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
3-5 KT, BECOMING VRB/CALM AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A PERIOD SUB-  
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SUB VFR  
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE I-95  
TAF SITES AND POINTS SOUTH. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER  
BY AROUND 6Z BUT THEN THERE MAY BE SUB VFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL  
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF FOG AND  
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO CAPE  
MAY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM. OTHERWISE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT  
SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.  
HOWEVER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING  
COULD BRING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS ALONG WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO  
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BECOMING MORE ALONGSHORE FLOW  
AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE  
DEPENDING ON BEACH ORIENTATION WITH A PRIMARY SE SWELL INCREASING TO  
4 FEET AT A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIDES WILL BE AROUND LOW  
TIDE IN THE MORNING WITH THE INCREASE IN SWELL, WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH  
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EASTERLY FACING BEACHES AND MODERATE  
ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT WE  
WILL CONFINE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO THE BEACHES IN  
ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NJ WITH A MODERATE RISK ELSEWHERE.  
 
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS AND  
THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW TIDES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY  
AND IT RUNS FROM 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IF STORMS TRAIN  
OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, THIS COULD RESULT IN  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. MAIN STEM RIVER  
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER  
STREAMS/CREEKS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
PLEASE HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INSTRUCTIONS  
IN CASE OF FLOODING.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.  
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR NJZ008>010-012>023-027.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.  
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ024>026.  
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR DEZ001>003.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR DEZ001>004.  
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
ANZ451>453.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/MJL  
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA  
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA  
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MJL/OHARA  
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA  
HYDROLOGY...  
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