884
FXUS61 KPHI 211615
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS TO THE
REGION. ERIN WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY, BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HURRICANE ERIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL HAZARDS TO THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OF ERIN WILL BE ~300-400 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA, THE WIND FIELD OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO
GROW IN SIZE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING JUST OFF
OUR COASTS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM ERIN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS, LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, STRONG POWERFUL SEAS
YIELDING BEACH EROSION, AND COASTAL FLOODING. REFER TO THE
MARINE AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
OUTSIDE OF COASTAL AREAS, OVERCAST SKIES, BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ASIDE FOR SOME MIST
THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED
WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH. WITH THE
CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
FOR COASTAL AREAS, A MUCH DIFFERENT DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25-35 MPH WHERE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORY,
WHICH BEGINS AT 10 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
OCEAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD. MONMOUTH COUNTY SHOULD FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO SHORTER FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. A FEW
SHOWERS FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF ERIN COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
MAY REACH OUR COASTLINE, BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHILE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THE MORE
CONCERNING THREAT TO COASTAL LOCALES WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED
THREAT OF POWERFUL SEAS CAUSING BEACH EROSION, RIP CURRENTS, AND
TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING, WHERE FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE SECTIONS BELOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS ERIN
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET FROM WEST TO EAST, GIVING WAY
TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, BUT OVERALL WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON HURRICANE ERIN, PLEASE PROCEED TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S WEBSITE: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS HURRICANE ERIN PUSHES WELL AWAY FROM OUR ARE INTO FRIDAY,
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE US A
NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE AND LOUSY WEATHER CONDITIONS WE'VE
EXPERIENCED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY WILL SEE PLEASANTLY DRY AIR THANKS TO DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN MANY AREAS. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY, SURFACE
FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY, BUT
STILL A VERY PLEASANT LATE AUGUST DAY. THE DRY AIR AND RIDGING
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION. THIS TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. MORE HUMID AND
SHOWERY/STORM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME MONDAY, USHERING IN A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LIKELY LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS WELL. THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS
CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS IS NOT A
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH
FLOODING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY POTENTIAL THREATS FROM
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE COMING DAYS THOUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S, LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND
50S. NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST, WITH CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF
MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH END IFR CIGS REMAINING ACROSS THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS BACK
TO KRDG,KABE. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE
EVENING AS DRIER AIR GETS IMPORTED FROM THE N/NW. GUSTY N WINDS
15 TO 10 KTS WITH G20-25KT BUT G30-35 KT (KACY, KMIV). MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY(KACY,KMIV), IMPROVING
TO VFR AND AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z. NORTH WINDS AROUND 7-12
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING AROUND 20 KT. MODERATE-
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL,
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE
MANASQUAN INLET TO FENWICK ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFFSHORE SANDY HOOK TO
MANASQUAN INLET THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AS
HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KT
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-45 KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 KT EXPECTED
ON THE DELAWARE BAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS OF 8-12 FEET THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY BUILD UP TO 12-17
FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO ABATE TONIGHT
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH AND CHOPPY WATERS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM DEPARTING HURRICANE
ERIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST.
RIP CURRENTS...
STAY OUT OF THE WATER!
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
DANGEROUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS BREAKING WAVES PEAK
AT 7-12 FEET ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS (15-18
SECONDS) STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ERIN. A HIGH RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR FRIDAY, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BUT STILL EXPECTING
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 9 FEET AND A LONG PERIOD 13 TO 16 SECOND
SWELL WITH HURRICANE ERIN PULLING AWAY. A HIGH RISK FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS STATEMENT
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
ATLANTIC COASTS. WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL REACH AND EXCEED 8
FEET, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PROLONGED AND STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. WATER
WILL SLOWLY PILE UP AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR TIDAL FLOODING AND PUSH OF WATER ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE FROM AROUND
BARNEGAT BAY SOUTH THROUGH COASTAL DELAWARE.
A WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED AS ERIN
PASSES BY OFFSHORE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
WITHIN DELAWARE BAY, WHERE WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN SUSSEX COUNTY, DE AND
CAPE MAY COUNTY, NJ, WHERE WE ARE NOW FORECASTING WATER LEVELS
TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT LEWES AND CAPE MAY. THE GREATEST
INUNDATION AND IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE. WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE, THEN ADDITIONAL MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.
ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED, BEGINNING WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY, NO WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR OUR
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORELINE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THE TIDAL
FLOODING WILL BE.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AUGUST 21
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 61/2007
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 66/1956
AC MARINA (55N) 67/1956
GEORGETOWN (GED) 69/1990
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 54/2007
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2007
READING (RDG) 60/1990
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2007
WILMINGTON (ILG) 65/2007
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN/PO
MARINE...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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