157  
FGUS73 KAPX 141429  
ESFAPX  
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-097-  
101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-131428-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1029 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024  
   
..SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
 
 
 
THE SPRING 2024 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A  
BELOW AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN  
MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN  
UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...  
BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.  
 
THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING  
FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR  
FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE  
CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...  
MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME  
PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING  
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN  
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
 
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOODING  
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MANISTEE RIVER  
SHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 7 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BOARDMAN RIVER  
MAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:AU SABLE RIVER  
RED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:RIFLE RIVER  
STERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 30 62 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PINE RIVER  
RUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:TOBACCO RIVER  
BEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE  
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS)  
AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS). FOR EXAMPLE...THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR  
STERLING...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET...HAS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF  
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 32 PERCENTAGE POINTS  
BELOW NORMAL. DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL  
PROBABILITY OF THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS  
62 PERCENT.  
 
THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION  
COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD  
(HIGH FLOW FORECAST):  
 
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MANISTEE RIVER  
SHERMAN 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2  
:BOARDMAN RIVER  
MAYFIELD--BROWN B 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.2  
:AU SABLE RIVER  
RED OAK 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.9 6.1  
:RIFLE RIVER  
STERLING 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.1 6.2 7.5 8.3  
:PINE RIVER  
RUDYARD 3.3 3.8 4.8 6.4 8.2 9.3 10.3  
:TOBACCO RIVER  
BEAVERTON 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.3 7.0 7.9 8.8  
 
CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE  
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT EXCEPT FOR THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING...WHERE  
THEE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET IS AROUND  
30 PERCENT.  
 
THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION  
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD  
(LOW FLOW FORECAST):  
   
..TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MANISTEE RIVER  
SHERMAN 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.2  
:BOARDMAN RIVER  
MAYFIELD--BROWN B 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3  
:AU SABLE RIVER  
RED OAK 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8  
:RIFLE RIVER  
STERLING 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4  
:PINE RIVER  
RUDYARD 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0  
:TOBACCO RIVER  
BEAVERTON 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2  
 
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN  
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST  
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30  
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT  
RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER  
EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE  
AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION  
CENTER. ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF  
FUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...  
OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS
 
 
 
AN HISTORICALLY WARM WINTER IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE BELOW  
NORMAL SNOWMELT FLOOD PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS  
SPRING...CONTRIBUTING TO A MINIMAL SNOWPACK. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE WINTER SEASON (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY) WERE 6 TO 8  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH WAS A RECORD WARMEST WINTER FOR ALL  
OF THE MAJOR CLIMATOLOGICAL STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
(BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD). THE WARM WEATHER  
HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH...WITH  
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF +13 TO +15 DEGREES.  
 
AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THIS ANOMALOUS WARMTH...SNOWFALL THUS FAR  
SINCE JULY 1 IS RUNNING ABOUT 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A  
MAJORITY OF THAT SNOWFALL OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD OF JANUARY  
9-23 WHERE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR  
SEASONAL TOTAL THUS FAR IN JUST THAT TWO WEEK PERIOD. AS OF  
MARCH 14...THE ONLY SNOW COVER WAS A MINIMAL AMOUNT REMAINING  
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL MONTHS OF 2023 (SEPTEMBER THROUGH  
NOVEMBER) WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER  
MICHIGAN...TRENDING BELOW NORMAL (50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL) CLOSER  
TO SAGINAW BAY. FOR THE WINTER PERIOD (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY)...  
PRECIPITATION WAS 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST  
LOWER MICHIGAN AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST. MARY'S RIVER IN EASTERN  
UPPER MICHIGAN...AND 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ELSEWHERE. MARCH  
HAS GOTTEN OFF TO A MUCH WETTER START...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ENCOMPASSING MOST  
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR  
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOIL  
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.  
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BASED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR  
MARCH 14 INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER  
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS ACROSS MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST LOWER  
MICHIGAN...AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REMAINDER  
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS  
HAS ALLEVIATED ANY DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG A AXIS FROM CADILLAC TO  
GAYLORD TO ROGERS CITY.  
 
MOST GAUGING STATIONS ON AREA RIVERS ARE RUNNING AT MOSTLY NORMAL  
STREAMFLOWS.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH HAS  
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE (EQUAL PROBABILITIES  
FOR ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES)...AND A HIGHER  
PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES A 50 TO  
60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NO  
DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION (EQUAL PROBABILITIES  
FOR ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION).  
   
..ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
 
 
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THIS YEAR.  
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE ABOVE  
TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE  
YEAR.  
 
VISIT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX (ALL LOWER CASE)  
FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC  
INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST  
OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.  
 

 
 
JPB  
 
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