257  
FGUS73 KDTX 131535  
ESFDTX  
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-171200-  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
1030 AM EST THU FEB 13 2020  
 
   
..2020 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
 
 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
FOR THE MAJOR RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON  
...ROUGE...HURON AND RAISIN RIVER BASINS...  
 
THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCE HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL  
THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET  
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THEN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THEN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THEN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
CLINTON RIVER  
CLINTON TOWNSHIP 16.0 17.0 19.0 17 20 8 9 <5 <5  
MT CLEMENS 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER  
MT CLEMENS 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
RIVER ROUGE  
DETROIT 15.0 18.0 20.0 26 31 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE  
DEARBORN HEIGHTS 10.0 11.0 12.0 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LOWER ROUGE RIVER  
DEARBORN 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MILL CREEK  
DEXTER 12.0 13.0 14.0 6 14 <5 5 <5 <5  
HURON RIVER  
HAMBURG 6.5 7.0 7.5 93 49 61 33 30 18  
ANN ARBOR 16.0 17.0 18.0 14 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
RIVER RAISIN  
TECUMSEH 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ADRIAN 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BLISSFIELD 683.0 685.0 687.0 13 17 6 8 <5 <5  
DUNDEE 650.0 652.0 653.0 12 15 5 7 <5 6  
MONORE 9.0 10.0 11.0 12 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
PINE RIVER  
MIDLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TITTABAWASSEE RIVER  
MIDLAND 24.0 25.0 28.0 27 17 17 15 <5 <5  
SHIAWASSEE RIVER  
OWOSSO 7.0 9.0 10.0 25 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
KEARSLEY CREEK  
DAVISON 10.0 11.0 12.0 35 33 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FLINT RIVER  
FLINT 13.0 15.0 17.0 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CASS RIVER  
CASS CITY 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
VASSAR 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FRANKENMUTH 17.0 20.0 25.0 16 25 <5 8 <5 <5  
SAGINAW RIVER  
SAGINAW 17.0 19.0 24.0 28 23 7 12 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
   
..PAST PRECIPITATION
 
 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FALL THROUGH WINTER SO FAR  
HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE. AROUND 150% OF NORMAL.  
   
..RIVER CONDITIONS
 
 
RIVER FLOW IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL RIVERS DUE TO THE WET FALL  
AND WINTER. RIVER ICE IS LITTLE TO NONE DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES  
AND LACK OF ANY EXTENDED ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.  
   
..SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH
 
 
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING DOWN TO ABOUT 2 FEET ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH FROST DEPTHS RANGING FROM ZERO TO 2 INCHES.  
THIS IS VERY SHALLOW FOR THIS TIME OF WINTER.  
   
..SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT
 
 
SNOW COVER IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GENERALLY  
LESS THEN FIVE INCHES WITH HIGHER POCKETS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS  
MIDLAND COUNTY AND THE THUMB WHERE WATER EQUIVALENT IS AROUND AN INCH.  
ELSEWHERE BASICALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS CALLS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING IS FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
   
..FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK
 
 
WITH THE LACK OF A SNOW PACK AND WATER EQUIVALENT, THE RISK FOR MODERATE  
TO MAJOR FLOODING THIS SPRING IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER, WITH SOIL MOISTURE  
AND RIVERS RUNNING HIGH, THE PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING IS HIGHER  
THEN NORMAL AND WOULD BE DRIVEN BY LOCAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.  
 
THE EXCEPTION IS THE HURON RIVER AT HAMBURG, WHERE THE PROBABILITY FOR  
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS HIGHER THEN NORMAL FOR THIS SPRING.  
 
THE OTHER EXCEPTION IS THE SAGINAW RIVER AS THE HIGH LEVEL OF LAKE HURON  
HAS RAISED THE BASE LEVEL TO JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY RAIN  
EVENTS AND/OR HIGH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD EASILY PUSHED THE RIVER TO  
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  
 
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE MARCH 12.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  
 

 
 
DRC  
 
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