595
FNUS53 KAPX 180715
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
...COOL AND DRY AIR MASS LEADING TO CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TODAY...
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL
SETTLE IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, CRITICAL
TO NEAR CRITICAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-182015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34...EXCEPT 36-41 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-182015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 35-40 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ020-025>027-182015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ031>033-182015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-182015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
EXTENDED
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SMD
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