561
FNUS53 KAPX 151907
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..STORMY BUT COOLER AHEAD
DISCUSSION
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESP
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND DAMAGING WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS COULD BE STUNTED SATURDAY BY
SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOT/HUMID WEATHER; LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EXPECTED COOL/DAMP CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID SATURDAY, WITH RHS TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A STRONGER HUDSON BAY HIGH COULD THROW A
WRENCH INTO THIS IDEA. SW/W WINDS TO BECOME MORE E/SE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-160815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (23).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...3 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (484).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.06- 0.58 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...34 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (29).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.07- 0.54 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...37 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES COOLER
NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (432).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...8 PERCENT.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-160815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (31).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
UNTIL 1200NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (528).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.49 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...27 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (23).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.10- 0.50 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...39 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (414).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.12 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MIZ020-025>027-160815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (31).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...4 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (442).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.09- 0.40 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...32 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (33).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.08- 0.30 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...26 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (366).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...13 PERCENT.
MIZ031>033-160815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (31).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...4 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
VENT RATE...........GOOD (493).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.06- 0.48 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...28 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (34).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.11- 0.35 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...24 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (343).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...14 PERCENT.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-160815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
307 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
UNTIL 1200NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (699).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.05- 0.45 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR (31).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.10- 0.38 IN.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...38 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (385).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN .
CHANCE OF THUNDER...13 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FEF
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