784  
FNUS53 KAPX 191007  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
607 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019  
   
..SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AN APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-192015-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
607 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........0-5 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......60 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 51 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (690).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 42-47 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......38 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 52 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
607 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........0-5 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (640).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 44 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (430).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-192015-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
607 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........0-5 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (420).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 65-70 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (370).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-192015-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
607 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........0-5 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......41 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 51 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (350).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
607 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........0-5 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (510).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (450).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.  
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
JPB  
 
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