745  
FNUS53 KAPX 190730  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
..A DRIER AIR MASS TODAY AND SATURDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF STATES WILL LIFT UP INTO THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW MORE  
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN, BUT HIGHER PRESSURE  
AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST,  
KEEPING HUMIDITIES CRITICALLY LOWER ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  
IN BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURES, WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE. THESE GUSTIER  
WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF WHERE THE CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ARE  
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS BY LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-192015-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......51 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (890).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY  
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND  
PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......42 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (910).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-192015-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE  
UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......57 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 49 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (950).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (710).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-192015-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY  
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......53 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1130).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY  
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL  
1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......45 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1240).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........RANGING FROM 24-29 PERCENT IN CRAWFORD COUNTY,  
TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TO OGEMAW AND  
GLADWIN COUNTIES.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (480).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
SUNDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER  
40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE  
MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
SMD  
 
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