426  
FNUS53 KAPX 121830  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020  
   
..GRADUALLY TURNING WARMER EARLY THIS WEEK
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDINESS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES  
OVERNIGHT. STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS  
NORTHEAST LOWER, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. OCCASIONALLY  
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES  
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY WARMING  
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE  
NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-130815-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (590).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 41-46 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-130815-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (520).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-130815-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT 66-71 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-130815-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (510).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-130815-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (680).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (670).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
WEDNESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID  
60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST  
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
MG  
 
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