056
FNUS53 KAPX 070702
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2024
..INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DISCUSSION
RAIN-FREE WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MI. CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER COINCIDING
WITH INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT COUNTIES, BUT BETTER CHANCES OF MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-072030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2024
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (864).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN .
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (56).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.23- 0.54 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (394).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN .
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-072030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2024
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (543).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN .
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (45).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.26- 0.52 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (878).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN .
MIZ020-025>027-072030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2024
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (906).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.05- 0.20 IN.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400. PATCHY FOG
AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER
NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (69).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.23- 0.47 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN .
MIZ031>033-072030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2024
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (877).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.07- 0.40 IN.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.18- 0.48 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES COOLER
NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (901).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN .
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-072030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
302 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2024
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (832).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.02- 0.11 IN.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400,
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (52).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.17- 0.38 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1374).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN .
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MJG
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