785
FNUS53 KAPX 151950
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
DISCUSSION
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SUN
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY.
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-160830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 33 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.14 IN.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-160830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.
MIZ020-025>027-160830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 32 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 36 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.
MIZ031>033-160830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-160830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.
EXTENDED
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SR
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