859  
FNUS53 KAPX 200731  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
331 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2019  
 
...TURNING NICE TODAY, THEN A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH GUSTY  
WINDS AND TURNING COLDER...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING UP INTO HUDSON BAY THIS  
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALSO DRAG A DECAYING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN  
MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY TODAY, ENDING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE  
REGION. GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE  
WEST, AND SUNSHINE WILL BE INCREASING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MUCH  
DISCUSSED DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL LIFT INTO  
MN MONDAY, THEN INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN  
GUSTY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE CONDITIONS TURN  
INCREASINGLY COLDER.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-202015-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
331 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
1200. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (130).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.34 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202015-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
331 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (260).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND  
9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.33 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-202015-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
331 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (110).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO  
AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 45  
MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (230).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.28-0.43 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-202015-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
331 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.32-0.47 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202015-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
331 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (390).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.39 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
TUESDAY
 
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND  
5 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50.  
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
SMD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page