401  
FNUS53 KAPX 090738  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
338 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
..DRY TODAY; RAIN BUILDING FOR FRIDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE  
NORTHWOODS. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE  
BOARD. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS WILL HOLD SUSTAINED 10MPH OR LESS  
WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST REACHING 20MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  
CERTAINLY ON THE DRY SIDE, WITH RHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S,  
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 20S RHS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER (AND  
DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM SOUTH WINDS) AND THE INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.  
AS SUCH, FIRE DANGER WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ELEVATED CRITERIA, BUT  
THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL  
SUPPRESS FIRE DANGER. THAT BEING SAID, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS  
AND NATURAL VEGETATION DECAY WILL LEAD TO DRY FUELS ACROSS AREAS  
THAT FAILED TO SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
LOOKING AHEAD, WE WILL EMBARK ON A WARMING TREND, BUT APPRECIABLE  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS  
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 70 SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK,  
AND THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL, ALBEIT, MINOR RAIN CHANCES.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-092100-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
338 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (24).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 27 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (479).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.25 IN.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-092100-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
338 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (366).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 18 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (38).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 23 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (448).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN .  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-092100-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
338 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (345).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 23 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (28).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 27 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (598).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.05- 0.25 IN.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-092100-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
338 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (353).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.  
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 18 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (28).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN .  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 27 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (552).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.21 IN.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-092100-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
338 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (334).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH  
AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (32).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST  
UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 23 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (467).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN .  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.  
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
COLUMBUS DAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
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