785  
FNUS53 KAPX 151950  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
 
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH  
MIDWEEK...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES, WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A  
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION  
THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG  
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SUN  
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY BEFORE  
ANOTHER CLIPPER INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-160830-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (210).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1090).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 33 TO 36 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (970).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1870).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.14 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-160830-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 33 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1320).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 33 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (740).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2170).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-160830-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 32 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (250).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 36 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 33 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1060).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1740).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-160830-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1130).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 33 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (890).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1780).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-160830-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
350 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1270).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 33 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (670).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1790).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER  
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS  
AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS  
IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.  
 

 
 
SR  
 
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