634  
FNUS53 KAPX 191904  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
..WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST  
LOWER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT  
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
STARTING TONIGHT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH  
CONTINUED INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200830-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.18 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (61).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.17- 0.66 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (325).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN .  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200830-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (25).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (466).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.01- 0.16 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (61).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.16- 0.66 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (297).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN .  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-200830-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED NEAR THE  
COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (22).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (669).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.08- 0.33 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 31 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (38).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.11- 0.68 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (351).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND  
9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN .  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-200830-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER  
NEAR THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (880).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.08- 0.34 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 31 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.31- 0.72 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (459).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN .  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200830-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS  
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (805).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.15 IN.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (75).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.40- 0.76 IN.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD (516).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN .  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
WEDNESDAY
 
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND  
5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID  
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
NSC  
 
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