745
FNUS53 KAPX 190730
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
..A DRIER AIR MASS TODAY AND SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF STATES WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN, BUT HIGHER PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST,
KEEPING HUMIDITIES CRITICALLY LOWER ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
IN BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURES, WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE. THESE GUSTIER
WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF WHERE THE CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS BY LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-192015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......51 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......42 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.
MIZ020-025>027-192015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......57 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 49 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ031>033-192015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......53 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
330 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......45 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........RANGING FROM 24-29 PERCENT IN CRAWFORD COUNTY,
TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TO OGEMAW AND
GLADWIN COUNTIES.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.
EXTENDED
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SMD
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