534  
FNUS53 KAPX 161939  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
..SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER. HUMIDITY VALUES STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL  
THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS GETS PUSHED INTO  
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170815-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.17 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (280).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.33 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170815-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (320).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.25 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-170815-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.21 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (210).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.27 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-170815-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN  
MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (140).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.15 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (260).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH  
AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.18 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170815-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (280).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.18 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 10 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
SJ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page