642  
FNUS53 KAPX 131835  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
135 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024  
   
..LAST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST UNTIL NEXT SPRING  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
NO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING GENERALLY BETWEEN A  
QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
EVENING. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY. A  
LARGER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH  
THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-140915-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
135 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 27 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (72).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.13 IN .  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (231).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.17- 0.32 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY  
UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (75).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN .  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (189).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 
 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-140915-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
135 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (71).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN .  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN. PATCHY FOG AFTER  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (262).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.16- 0.44 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY  
UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.03- 0.14 IN.  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 13 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (263).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 
 
 
MIZ020-025>027-140915-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
135 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.  
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (71).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.07- 0.32 IN.  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 35 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (236).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.20- 0.29 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (45).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN .  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (181).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 
 
 
MIZ031>033-140915-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
135 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (65).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.08- 0.40 IN.  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (232).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.19- 0.29 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (41).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN .  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (195).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 
 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-140915-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
135 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN LIKELY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (63).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.01- 0.12 IN.  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 18 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT......... 0.24- 0.39 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (67).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN .  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR (285).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 
 
   
EXTENDED  
 
   
SATURDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.    
SUNDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
MONDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.  
 
 
 
AJS  
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