595  
FNUS53 KAPX 180715  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
...COOL AND DRY AIR MASS LEADING TO CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL  
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TODAY...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL  
SETTLE IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT, BEFORE  
SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS  
WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, CRITICAL  
TO NEAR CRITICAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY  
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-182015-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (650).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34...EXCEPT 36-41 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (240).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-182015-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32...EXCEPT 35-40 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (180).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-182015-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND  
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-182015-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (870).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (260).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-182015-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (850).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST UNTIL  
1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER  
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
SMD  
 
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