765  
FNUS53 KDTX 160749  
FWFDTX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
349 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A VERY  
HUMID ENVIRONMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT EAST BY THURSDAY AS A WARM  
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MARK THE  
ARRIVAL OF HOT AND CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL IMPACT THE  
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
MIZ047-048-053-060-061-161915-  
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MIDLAND-BAY CITY-SAGINAW-OWOSSO-FLINT  
349 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 9 AM. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62-69 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3420-3920 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (840).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......160-360 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40  
PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57-66 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4790-5290 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (390).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ049-054-055-062-161915-  
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BAD AXE-CARO-SANDUSKY-LAPEER  
349 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 9 AM. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3760-4260 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1210).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66-71.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40  
PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63-73 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING EAST IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING  
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3130-3630 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-161915-  
ST CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PORT HURON-HOWELL-PONTIAC-WARREN-ANN  
ARBOR-DETROIT-ADRIAN-MONROE  
349 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM UNTIL  
9 AM, THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60  
PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3180-3680 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (910).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....67-72.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......160-360 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.51-0.75 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
UNTIL 3 PM. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AFTER 3 PM. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60  
PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59-69 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4530-5030 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING EAST IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING  
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (420).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
 

 
 
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
 
 
   
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS  
IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
10 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS  
IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
10 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
80S.    
MONDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S.  
 

 
 
DRK  
 
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