828  
FNUS73 KAPX 012155  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUCK CREEK FIRE...HURON-MANISTEE NF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
555 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 EDT ON JULY 01.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL HOLD OVER MICHIGAN  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN NO RAINFALL, CLEAR SKIES  
AND WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........85 AT FORECAST START...MIN 60.  
RH..................37 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MAX 90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT FORECAST  
START...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE 5100  
FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2 TO 5 MPH IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
VENT RATE...........POOR /100 AT FORECAST START. MIN...POOR /0/.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT FORECAST START...MAX 5.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE 5100  
FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2 TO 5 MPH IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............85 83 80 75 71 68 65 64 64 62 61 62  
RH..............37 40 44 54 66 76 84 87 84 87 90 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S SW SW SW W W W W NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.1 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E SE SE S SW SW W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.1 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE/100.......1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 94.  
RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE  
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700-8500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO EXCELLENT (0-600).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700-8500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........3 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............63 67 71 77 81 87 89 91 92 93 93 92  
RH..............84 75 68 58 51 40 37 34 32 30 29 30  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW N N N N N N NW W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 6 8 10 8 8 7 7 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 4.3 6.4 7.4 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.5 7.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 7 7  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE/100.......0 0 0 1 3 5 6 5 5 5 6 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...MONIQUE RUNYAN  
REQUESTED BY...ALEX WEITZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2008841.0/APX  
.DELDT 07/01/20  
 
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