529  
FNUS73 KAPX 100857  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG PINE BURN...MIDNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
457 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION  
THIS MORNING USHERING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO NORTHERN LOWER  
MICHIGAN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY DURING THE  
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.  
 
SYSTEM DEPARTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR  
BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR AT LEAST A DAY.  
 
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE BURN.  
WINDS VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH  
SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A FEW SHOWERS EARLY  
THIS MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 85.  
RH..................82 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1500-2600  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5300 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR /200 AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /900/.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........51 55 64 68 61 47 40  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............74 75 78 79 81 83 85  
RH..............82 79 74 72 65 57 51  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 11 11 11 10 11 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW W SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 15 17 18 18 17  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 4 4 4 4  
VRATE/100.......2 3 5 8 9 9 9  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16  
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO  
23 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO  
5 TO 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO GOOD (0-500).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........42 45 47 56 76 86 77 61 53 55 60 62  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............84 83 82 78 74 70 69 68 66 65 64 63  
RH..............53 55 56 67 82 97 97 93 97 97 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S SW W SW SW W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 6 6 9 5 5 5 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 13 10 11 16 7 8 8 8 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S SW SW W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 10 9 14 20 23 20 13 7 5 5 6  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE/100.......5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.  
RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3900 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO GOOD (0-500).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........69 90 80 77 74 67  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............62 64 65 68 70 72  
RH..............100 97 93 78 68 61  
20 FT WIND......NW 5 NW 5 NW 5 W 6 NW 7 NW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 8 10 12 13  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 700 1700 2600 3400 3700  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 NW 13 NW 13 NW 12 W 12 NW 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE/100.......0 1 2 3 4 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM  
REQUESTED BY...JEFF VASHER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1911979.1/APX  
.DELDT 07/10/19  
 
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