123  
FNUS73 KAPX 091746  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR LAKE SPRAY SITE...MDNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
146 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN  
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN  
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY, WITH 20  
FOOT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONG  
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.  
RH..................93 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1500 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 22  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........POOR /0 AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD /300/.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........88 82 79 78 75 73 70 63 59  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............58 62 66 69 73 76 79 80 80  
RH..............93 90 84 81 76 71 64 62 62  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 18 23 24 23 22 21 21 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 17 20 22 21 18 16  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4  
VRATE/100.......0 0 1 1 3 3 3 2 1  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20  
MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
UNTIL EARLY MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........59 59 62 64 69 71 69 65 64 63 62 61  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............79 77 74 72 71 69 68 67 66 65 63 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 19 18 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 6  
 

 
FORECASTER...JIM KEYSOR  
REQUESTED BY...KLINGLER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1915169.0/APX  
.DELDT 09/09/19  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page