851  
FNUS73 KAPX 161026  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LOUD BUCK...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
626 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE... CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989)732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE  
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO FILTERED/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES,  
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON  
THE INCREASE THIS EVENING, BUT NOT BEFORE RHS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-30 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY  
WITH HIGHEST GUSTS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES DO INCREASE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THAT INFLUX OF MOISTURE,  
MAINLY AFTER 11 PM AT THE BURN SITE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY  
CONTINUE EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS (30-40 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 8 TO  
9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3500 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (125.0-317.0).  
 
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........25 33 40 47 43 39 35  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............61 65 66 67 68 68 69  
RH..............51 43 40 37 36 37 37  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 9 9 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 8 8 9 9 9  
VRATE KT-FT.....125 160 256 279 317 302 266  
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR FR FR GD GD FR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10  
TO 12 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (30.0-157.0).  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........44 53 63 67 71 75 77 79 81 83 86 89  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............67 65 61 57 54 53 53 53 52 52 52 52  
RH..............42 46 56 67 74 77 80 83 89 93 96 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE E E E SE SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE E E E E SE SE SE S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 12 10 10  
VRATE KT-FT.....157 102 74 36 30 36 39 36 36 48 41 44  
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-2600 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (44.0-219.0).  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........89 89 79 67 54 43  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
TEMP............50 54 61 65 68 70  
RH..............100 100 84 73 65 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 10 10 10 9  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 1200 2200 2500 2600  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 S 8 S 7  
VRATE KT-FT.....44 49 126 212 203 186  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR  
 

 
FORECASTER...MJG  
REQUESTED BY...COREY SMITH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2414369.0/APX  
.DELDT 05/16/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL COREY.SMITH@USDA.GOV  
 
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