123
FNUS73 KAPX 091746
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR LAKE SPRAY SITE...MDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
146 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2019
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY, WITH 20
FOOT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.
RH..................93 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1500 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 22
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........POOR /0 AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD /300/.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........88 82 79 78 75 73 70 63 59
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............58 62 66 69 73 76 79 80 80
RH..............93 90 84 81 76 71 64 62 62
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.14 18 23 24 23 22 21 21 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 17 20 22 21 18 16
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4
VRATE/100.......0 0 1 1 3 3 3 2 1
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........59 59 62 64 69 71 69 65 64 63 62 61
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............79 77 74 72 71 69 68 67 66 65 63 61
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3
20 FT WIND GUST.20 19 18 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 6
FORECASTER...JIM KEYSOR
REQUESTED BY...KLINGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1915169.0/APX
.DELDT 09/09/19
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