529
FNUS73 KAPX 100857
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG PINE BURN...MIDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
457 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2019
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING USHERING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SYSTEM DEPARTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR
BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR AT LEAST A DAY.
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE DURING THE BURN.
WINDS VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 85.
RH..................82 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1500-2600
FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5300 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR /200 AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /900/.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........51 55 64 68 61 47 40
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............74 75 78 79 81 83 85
RH..............82 79 74 72 65 57 51
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.11 11 11 11 10 11 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW W SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 15 17 18 18 17
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 4 4 4 4
VRATE/100.......2 3 5 8 9 9 9
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO
23 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO
5 TO 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VENT RATE...........POOR TO GOOD (0-500).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........42 45 47 56 76 86 77 61 53 55 60 62
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............84 83 82 78 74 70 69 68 66 65 64 63
RH..............53 55 56 67 82 97 97 93 97 97 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S SW W SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 6 6 9 5 5 5 6 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 13 10 11 16 7 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S SW SW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 10 9 14 20 23 20 13 7 5 5 6
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE/100.......5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3900 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR TO GOOD (0-500).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........69 90 80 77 74 67
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62 64 65 68 70 72
RH..............100 97 93 78 68 61
20 FT WIND......NW 5 NW 5 NW 5 W 6 NW 7 NW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 8 10 12 13
MIX HGT (FT)....400 700 1700 2600 3400 3700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 NW 13 NW 13 NW 12 W 12 NW 13
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE/100.......0 1 2 3 4 5
FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...JEFF VASHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1911979.1/APX
.DELDT 07/10/19
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