048  
FNUS73 KMQT 190954  
FWSMQT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FIELD OF DREAMS RX...MI DNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
554 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS  
WILL ENSURE SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  
FAIRLY DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO QUICKLY LOWER  
DEW POINTS ALLOWING MIN RHS TO FALL NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER THE BURN AREA.  
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEFORE A PLAINS LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING WETTING RAINS OF  
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THE BURN AREA.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78.  
RH..................MIN 19 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............36 DECREASING TO 32 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH DECREASING TO SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH DECREASING TO SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-6100 FT AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR TO EXCELLENT (297.0-688.0).  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......16 DECREASING TO 12.  
 
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM  
SKY (%).........2 8 14 20 30 39 49  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............68 72 74 75 76 77 77  
DEWPOINT........38 36 35 33 33 33 32  
RH..............32 27 24 22 21 20 19  
33 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W W W W  
33 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 5 5 5  
WIND GUST.......11 11 10 10 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1 5.9  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 6 6 6 5 5  
VINDX KT-FT/100.69 67 54 44 35 30 30  
CEILING (KFT)...18 17 16 15 14 13 12  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.  
RH..................MAX 74 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............35 INCREASING TO 42.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN  
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 4 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1000 FT AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (2.0-263.0).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......12 INCREASING TO 14 LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 12 OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 9.9  
AFTER 3 AM DECREASING TO 8.4 DECREASING TO 6.8  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM  
SKY (%).........53 58 62 62 61 61 66 71 76 75 74 74  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............76 74 71 67 63 60 57 56 55 54 52 51  
DEWPOINT........34 37 39 41 42 44 44 43 42 41 41 40  
RH..............22 25 31 38 47 57 60 61 61 63 65 66  
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1  
WIND GUST.......6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.3 4.2 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
VINDX KT-FT/100.26 21 19 14 7 2 0 1 3 3 3 3  
CEILING (KFT)...12 13 14 14 15 16 14 13 12 9.9 8.4 6.8  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100, THEN 2 UNTIL 1400, THEN 3 UNTIL  
1700, THEN 2.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.  
RH..................MIN 65 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............43 INCREASING TO 54.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST UP TO 6 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-2200 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (24.0-413.0).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.24 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......6.9 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM  
SKY (%).........77 83 91 94 93 94  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 40 70 80 80  
LAL.............1 1 1 2 3 3  
TEMP............51 52 54 56 60 62  
DEWPOINT........41 43 47 51 54 55  
RH..............69 70 79 83 81 79  
33 FT WIND......SE 2 SE 2 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 S 7  
20 FT WIND......SE 2 SE 2 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 S 6  
WIND GUST....... 10 12 12 11  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 300 1000 1700 2100 2100  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 2 2  
VINDX KT-FT/100.3 4 21 38 40 32  
CEILING (KFT)...6.9 7.2  
 

 
FORECASTER...VOSS  
REQUESTED BY...ROB SHIELDS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2414601.0/MQT  
.DELDT 05/19/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL SHIELDSR1@MICHIGAN.GOV  
 
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