076
FNUS73 KMQT 062318
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE FALLS PILE BURNING DAY 4...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
618 PM EST WED DEC 6 2023
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CST ON DECEMBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A WARM FRONT PASSED EARLIER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE BURN SITE. SOUTH WINDS VEER WESTERLY
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE BURN SITE LATE ON THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY THURSDAY
EVENING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BURN SITE
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON SATURDAY AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN BY SUNDAY.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
TEMPERATURE.........33 AT IGNITION...MIN 25.
RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 90 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............24.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 16 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 16
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST UP TO 5 MPH
AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1000 FT
AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (188) AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR (43.0).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......11 INCREASING TO 19 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
DECREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING
TO 19 LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 21.
TIME (CST) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
SKY (%).........55 40 37 36 34 33 35 32 27 31 29 28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............33 32 32 32 31 31 31 30 30 28 28 28
DEWPOINT........23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24
RH..............65 68 71 73 76 77 78 80 82 84 84 85
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
33 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 12 12 12 8 8 8 6 6 6
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 10 10 10 6 6 6 5 5 5
WIND GUST.......24 24 24 18 18 18 12 12 12 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
VINDX KT-FT/100.19 25 24 20 15 11 8 6 5 5 5 4
CEILING (KFT)...11 20 19 16 16 19 21 22 23 22 22 21
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 46.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............25 INCREASING TO 29 LATE IN THE MORNING.
33-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (8.0).
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......20 DECREASING TO 18 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 17
INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (CST) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
SKY (%).........38 38 55 58 59 54 38 20 11 11 13 13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............26 27 27 28 30 35 39 44 46 46 45 42
DEWPOINT........23 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30
RH..............88 88 90 90 88 77 67 59 55 54 57 61
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S SE SE SE
33 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......6 6 6 4 4 4 7 7 7 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VINDX KT-FT/100.4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 6 10 11
CEILING (KFT)...20 21 18 21 18 20 18 17 18 18 19 21
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 98 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............31.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (54.0-336.0).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......22 DECREASING TO 16.
TIME (CST) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM
SKY (%).........13 20 35 48 59 66
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............39 35 33 33 33 34
DEWPOINT........30 30 30 31 32 33
RH..............69 83 88 93 96 96
33 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 10 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 13
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 8 S 10 S 11 S 11 S 10
WIND GUST.......14 14 16 17 17 14
MIX HGT (FT)....400 200 300 200 600 1300
HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 3 4 4
VINDX KT-FT/100.9 6 8 5 16 33
CEILING (KFT)...22 21 16
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 45.
RH..................MIN 73 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............34.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (48.0-470.0) INCREASING TO GOOD
(548.0) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......MISSING.
TIME (CST) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM
SKY (%).........66 64 63 58 72 61
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............34 36 38 42 44 43
DEWPOINT........33 34 34 35 36 35
RH..............96 92 86 78 76 73
33 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 SW 13 SW 14 SW 14 SW 13
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 SW 10 SW 11 SW 11 SW 10
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 16 16 16
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 900 300 1400 2200 2100
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 4 4 4
VINDX KT-FT/100.32 18 5 32 55 56
CEILING (KFT)...
FORECASTER...EK
REQUESTED BY...STEPHEN JOUSMA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2326597.0/MQT
.DELDT 12/06/23
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STEPHEN.JOUSMA@USDA.GOV
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