108
FNUS73 KMQT 080035
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR 551 FIRE...STATE OF MICHIGAN DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
835 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2100 EDT ON AUGUST 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
AT 7 PM CENTRAL TIME, AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY, WITH AN ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL TO
EASTERN MENOMINEE COUNTY OF AROUND 8:20 TO 8:30 PM. THIS STORM
WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN (UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR) BUT IS ALSO BRINGING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH UP TO 200+ LIGHTNING STRIKES PER 5 MINUTES.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN UP
AND NORTHERN WI THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 2 AM. WINDS AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC, BUT THE BACKGROUND WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH
AND A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
SKIES CLEAR OUT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH. AROUND 7 PM,
WINDS FALL TO 5 MPH OR LESS AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...45 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........74 AT FORECAST START...MIN 58.
RH..................78 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MAX 100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............65 DECREASING TO 61 AFTER 3 AM.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 4 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE
400-500 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (43) AT FORECAST START. MIN...POOR (26.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......19 DECREASING TO 10 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING TO 15 AFTER 3 AM
INCREASING TO 19 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........80 79 91 79 83 42 43 57 38
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 50 40 30 10 10 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).50 50 40 40 30 10 10 0 0
TEMP............74 71 69 67 66 65 64 62 61
DEWPOINT........66 67 66 65 65 63 63 62 61
RH..............78 87 90 92 95 95 97 100 100
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW
33 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 10 10 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
VINDX KT-FT/100.4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
CEILING (KFT)...19 12 12 11 11 10 12 15 19
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81.
RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............58 DECREASING TO 54 IN THE AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6500 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (45.0-427.0) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (608.0) IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......22.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28 19 8 8 7 4 2 11 8 5 21 8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............60 59 60 64 69 72 75 76 78 79 80 81
DEWPOINT........60 59 58 59 59 58 56 55 55 54 54 54
RH..............100 100 93 84 71 60 53 49 44 42 40 40
33 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
33 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.5
VINDX KT-FT/100.5 5 6 12 24 43 61 68 78 76 71 78
CEILING (KFT)...22 23 24 25 25 25 24 24 25 24 25 25
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............56.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-500 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR TO EXCELLENT (182.0-606.0) DECREASING TO
POOR (16.0) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......23 DECREASING TO 22 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........11 17 28 24 16 19 6 7 23 15 17 47
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............80 79 77 72 68 66 64 63 62 60 59 59
DEWPOINT........54 55 56 57 58 58 58 57 57 56 56 55
RH..............41 43 49 60 69 76 80 81 84 88 87 86
33 FT WIND DIR..W W W N N N SW SW SW SW SW SW
33 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W N N N SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
WIND GUST.......10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.5 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
VINDX KT-FT/100.61 18 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4
CEILING (KFT)...24 24 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 24 23 22
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81.
RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............57 INCREASING TO 62 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-3900 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (32.0-413.0) INCREASING TO GOOD
(363.0) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.06 INCHES.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39 51 50 49 48 47 47 47 47 55 64 72
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 50 50 50
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30
TEMP............58 59 61 65 69 74 76 77 79 79 79 80
DEWPOINT........55 55 58 59 61 62 62 63 63 64 64 64
RH..............88 86 87 82 74 66 64 61 59 59 59 60
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
33 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......6 6 6 6 6 6 11 11 11 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.3
VINDX KT-FT/100.4 3 3 11 14 14 24 41 56 57 49 36
FORECASTER...GS
REQUESTED BY...AVI SHALOM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619187.0/MQT
.DELDT 08/07/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RIANM@MICHIGAN.GOV,SHALOMA@MICHIGAN.COM,FRIEDENSTFRIEDENSTABJ@MICHIGAN.GOV,SUHESKIC2@MICHIGAN.GOV
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