076  
FNUS73 KMQT 062318  
FWSMQT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE FALLS PILE BURNING DAY 4...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
618 PM EST WED DEC 6 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CST ON DECEMBER 06.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION  
A WARM FRONT PASSED EARLIER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE BURN SITE. SOUTH WINDS VEER WESTERLY  
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.  
ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE BURN SITE LATE ON THURSDAY WITH  
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING GUSTY THURSDAY  
EVENING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BURN SITE  
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON SATURDAY AND  
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN BY SUNDAY.  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........33 AT IGNITION...MIN 25.  
RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 90 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............24.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 16 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 16  
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST UP TO 5 MPH  
AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1000 FT  
AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (188) AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR (43.0).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......11 INCREASING TO 19 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING  
TO 19 LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 21.  
 
TIME (CST) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM  
SKY (%).........55 40 37 36 34 33 35 32 27 31 29 28  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............33 32 32 32 31 31 31 30 30 28 28 28  
DEWPOINT........23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24  
RH..............65 68 71 73 76 77 78 80 82 84 84 85  
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
33 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 12 12 12 8 8 8 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 10 10 10 6 6 6 5 5 5  
WIND GUST.......24 24 24 18 18 18 12 12 12 7 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4  
VINDX KT-FT/100.19 25 24 20 15 11 8 6 5 5 5 4  
CEILING (KFT)...11 20 19 16 16 19 21 22 23 22 22 21  
   
THURSDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 46.  
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............25 INCREASING TO 29 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-700 FT AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (8.0).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......20 DECREASING TO 18 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING  
TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 17  
INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CST) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM  
SKY (%).........38 38 55 58 59 54 38 20 11 11 13 13  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............26 27 27 28 30 35 39 44 46 46 45 42  
DEWPOINT........23 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30  
RH..............88 88 90 90 88 77 67 59 55 54 57 61  
33 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 6 6 6  
WIND GUST.......6 6 6 4 4 4 7 7 7 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VINDX KT-FT/100.4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 6 10 11  
CEILING (KFT)...20 21 18 21 18 20 18 17 18 18 19 21  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.  
RH..................MAX 98 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............31.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (54.0-336.0).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......22 DECREASING TO 16.  
 
TIME (CST) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM  
SKY (%).........13 20 35 48 59 66  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............39 35 33 33 33 34  
DEWPOINT........30 30 30 31 32 33  
RH..............69 83 88 93 96 96  
33 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 10 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 13  
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 8 S 10 S 11 S 11 S 10  
WIND GUST.......14 14 16 17 17 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 200 300 200 600 1300  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 3 4 4  
VINDX KT-FT/100.9 6 8 5 16 33  
CEILING (KFT)...22 21 16  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 45.  
RH..................MIN 73 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............34.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (48.0-470.0) INCREASING TO GOOD  
(548.0) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......MISSING.  
 
TIME (CST) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM  
SKY (%).........66 64 63 58 72 61  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............34 36 38 42 44 43  
DEWPOINT........33 34 34 35 36 35  
RH..............96 92 86 78 76 73  
33 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 SW 13 SW 14 SW 14 SW 13  
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 SW 10 SW 11 SW 11 SW 10  
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 16 16 16  
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 900 300 1400 2200 2100  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 4 4 4  
VINDX KT-FT/100.32 18 5 32 55 56  
CEILING (KFT)...  
 
 
FORECASTER...EK  
REQUESTED BY...STEPHEN JOUSMA  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2326597.0/MQT  
.DELDT 12/06/23  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL STEPHEN.JOUSMA@USDA.GOV  
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