072  
FNUS73 KMQT 271322  
FWSMQT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR COON TAIL PILES RX - NORTH...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
922 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 27.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING IS KEEPING  
WINDS NEARLY CALM. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING  
A SE WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH TO DEVELOP. SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD MIX OUT THIS MORNING, BUT CLOUDS WON'T GO AWAY ENTIRELY. IT  
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD LIMIT MIXING. THEREFORE, IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID THAN  
YESTERDAY, WITH AN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH IN THE LOW 60 PERCENTS  
EXPECTED. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........31 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.  
RH..................100 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 64 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............32 INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11  
MPH.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 400-1800 FT  
AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (45) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (257).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......17 INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 18 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 13 DECREASING TO 9.3 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........12 19 26 25 24 23 23 23 23  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............31 34 38 42 46 49 51 51 50  
DEWPOINT........31 34 37 37 38 39 39 39 39  
RH..............100 100 97 84 74 67 64 64 66  
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9  
WIND GUST.......12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VINDX KT-FT/100.45 87 131 181 231 257 247 243 218  
CEILING (KFT)...17 21 20 18 18 19 16 13 9.3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39.  
RH..................MAX 95 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............39.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL.  
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (140).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......6.6 DECREASING TO 0.7.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........29 35 41 46 51 56 60 63 67 72 77 82  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............48 46 44 42 41 41 40 40 41 41 41 41  
DEWPOINT........39 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39  
RH..............72 80 87 93 95 95 95 94 91 91 91 92  
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S  
33 FT WIND SPD..11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8  
WIND GUST.......13 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VINDX KT-FT/100.217 230 218 215 186 164 169 178 188 179 164 140  
CEILING (KFT)...6.6 3.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 53.  
RH..................MIN 79 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............41 INCREASING TO 45 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3300 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (28-376).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......0.7 DECREASING TO 0.6 EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN INCREASING TO 1.0 LATE IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO 1.5 LATE IN THE MORNING  
DECREASING TO 1.0.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........79 72 75 77 80 85  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE DRZL DRZL DRZL DRZL  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 30 30 40  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............42 42 44 48 52 53  
DEWPOINT........39 39 41 44 46 46  
RH..............91 90 91 85 82 79  
33 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 SE 9 SE 7 SE 7 NE 6  
20 FT WIND......S 8 S 8 SE 7 SE 6 SE 6 NE 5  
WIND GUST.......12 12 11 11 11 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 300 1400 2500 3100 3300  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3  
VINDX KT-FT/100.80 28 167 330 374 268  
CEILING (KFT)...0.7 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.3  
 

 
FORECASTER...LG  
REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM MEGINLEY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2120143.0/MQT  
.DELDT 10/27/21  
.EMAIL WILLIAM.MEGINLEY@USDA.GOV  
 
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